We are off to Scotland for some links golf, as Rory McIlroy returns after his heart-breaking US Open defeat to defend the Scottish Open.
Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the Genesis Scottish Open!
Well, before jumping into our John Deere Classic preview, there is one thing we need to say first: WHAT. A. WEEK!
It was a fabulous week all round for our selections at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Cam Davis was in our selections at a MASSIVE 70/1 and secured his 2nd PGA Tour victory at the same venue he won at in 2021. We also completed the quinella, with Min Woo Lee finishing runner-up within our selections. We cashed a full place on him at +360.
After three weeks of having hit a first-round leader top 5, we cashed in on Bhatia as first-round leader at 45/1. Sam Stevens finished in 10th, just one shot outside a place finish at 14/1. We cashed a Top 20 at +320 for him.
It is hard to find fault in a week like that. However, I might make an exception for Joel Dahmen. Sitting 7th entering the final round, he was the worst putter in the field by some margin on Sunday when he lost -4.70 SG: Putt. Had he putted at field average, he would have cashed a place at 32/1. Even losing 2 strokes putting (still a substantially dreadful putting day), he would have locked in a Top 20 at +650. Instead, we had to settle on a Top 40 at +200.
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Much is made of this event, from notably receiving a hard time for the low quality of the field and the ease of scoring at TPC Deere Run. Mostly, it is hard to dispute both points.
However, the tournament has still generated it’s own storylines. Steve Stricker famously won 3 consecutive tournaments here from 2009-2011. Jordan Spieth won in both 2013 and 2015. Spieth appears here for the first time since that 2015 win. Largely, that is a result of his current FedEx Cup ranking. He sits outside the Top 50, a key mark to automatically earn his way into all the signature events in 2025. He returns in dreadful form, with question marks about an enduring wrist injury. But, it is Jordan Spieth. And in usual Spiethian fashion, just about anything could happen for him.
It is also one of the last opportunities to qualify for The Open Championship. An alluring prize for those who are yet to make the field, and one that has ensured a somewhat improved field in recent years.
TPC Deere Run has ranked consistently as one of the lowest scoring venues on the PGA Tour in all iterations of the tournament. In the last 14 tournaments, no one has won at a score higher than -18 and typically something in the range of -20 to -25 is required for victory. The cutline has been -3 or -4 for the last 5 years.
In short, you need to make birdies and do so often to remain in contention here. It should be no surprise then that all of the last 7 winners here ranked 15 or better for the week in greens in regulation.
Given fairways are generous average of 36 yards, what may be more surprising in our John Deere Classic preview is that driving accuracy ranks as a high correlation to success. However, the course has ranked in the 9th or lower for rough penalty on the PGA Tour for all seasons in the last 8 years. This is also another factor of the scoring.
Fact is, when you need to make birdies in bunches, you are best placed to do so from the fairway. The course is not overly long, being a 7,289 par 71. This factors into our final point of our John Deere Classic course preview. That is short iron play is supremely important at TPC Deere Run.
A huge 35% of approach shots will occur between 100-150 yards. With a further two approach shots projected between 50-100 yards, that is 45% of approach shots with a wedge in hand. This is particularly intriguing, given the majority of recent golf courses have seen the opposite with a disproportionate number of long irons.
The recipe to success here is find the fairway, hit a good wedge shot, and make the subsequent putt.
First thing to note is that TPC Deere Run has one of the lowest correlations between prior success as a predictor of future performance. This might be somewhat confusing given this tournament has been held 23 times at this venue, so a wealth of data is available.
However, given the low scoring here and generally weaker fields, it should be factored into your decisions when you preview the John Deere Classic the prior performances should rated less highly than at other venues.
Finding success here can be linked to a number of other low scoring venues, where driving accuracy and wedge play are the key. Courses such as Wai’alae Country Club (Sony Open), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), and Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) come to mind here.
Furthermore, Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) could be an important course comp. Jordan Spieth and Steve Stricker, both multiple time winners of the John Deere Classic, have also won there.
Weather could well play a factor to our John Deere Classic preview this week. When you have to score so low, getting the right side of the weather wave can be essential to finding a winner in betting or DFS markets.
Currently, Thursday morning looks to be the best conditions by far across the first two rounds. Winds will increase to low teens for gusts that afternoon, with a chance of heavy rain and possibly delayed play. On Friday, winds increase even further.
Friday presents the highest winds in the afternoon, with prevailing winds between 14-17 mph and gust between 20-25 mph. However, winds will still be high on Friday morning. It is a very short window before winds begin to increase throughout the day.
As such, I think the best strategy here is for those going out early Thursday. Hopefully, they can make the most of the pristine calm conditions. The goal is to then hold on throughout Friday. The vast majority of players will be completing at least 9 holes in very high winds. Further, those going out Thursday afternoon could slip into the windy conditions Friday morning if substantial delays are experienced.
Over the weekend, winds should settle. On Sunday, there is a small chance of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the region. Again, this could result in some delays in play should forecasts remain true.
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Before we dive into our Travelers Championship preview, it is only right we talk about THAT tournament this week. The 124th US Open Championship lived up to the mark, producing one of the most memorable majors in recent memory. Not only is it rare to get a major championship that close right until the final hole, but also to have a leaderboard of that calibre meant we enjoyed a tournament for the ages.
Pinehurst No. 2 was a brilliant host. It lived up to all the promise, albeit the course was watered occasionally much to the jeers of the crowd. It truly is a fabulous golf course. Pleasingly, it has been marked as one of several venues which will host the US Open more regularly. The green complexes are some of the most fascinating that we get to enjoy of the major championship venues. There is something to be said for removing the rough around greens, relying instead on heavy contouring and fast, firm greens. It allows for more creativity and, subsequently, enjoyment for fans who get to see the world’s best golfers struggle to think of ways to get up and down.
Overall, it was another profitable week for our selections without the winner. Headline selection Xander recovered from a poor start to fight back across the week. Davis Thompson was tipped at a massive 300/1, and impressed once again. He was just one shot off place money of 60/1, triple the best available pre-tournament odds on a Bryson DeChambeau win.
True to form, the PGA Tour backs up a major championship with a signature event the following week. Although controversial, I can understand the reasoning. Not only does it ensure the field doesn’t get weakened after one of the flagship tournaments of the year, it has the additional benefit of striking while the iron is hot and fan interest in golf is high. The event will have no cut and was originally to have 72 players, although that has now reduced with Rory McIlroy to recover from that heart-breaking defeat.
TPC River Highlands plays host for our Travelers Championship preview. The course in has played host for decades, so we have a wealth of data. The first thing to note is that driving accuracy is at a premium here. That is often a prerequisite at courses where Pete Dye is involved.
Fairways are narrow averaging just 29 yards at key landing areas. The course has ranked in the 10 most penalizing for missed fairways in 7/9 most recent tournaments. The rough is thick Kentucky Bluegrass. Notably, this week the course superintendent has given rough length as 4+ inches. I’ve not seen the plus notation previously, so I am interested to see how long they let the grass grow out!
The course is short at just 6,835 yards for a par 70. The average length of par 4/5 is some of the shortest we will see of all regular PGA Tour stops. As such, you simply have to find the fairway to approach these greens and keep up with the scoring. We also see a reduction in projected long iron approaches. There is an increase in approach shots from 150-175 yards, but the vast majority of iron shots will be from less than 150 yards this week.
Guidance for our Travelers Championship preview can be found in other Pete Dye designs. Both Harbour Town (host of the RBC Heritage) and TPC Sawgrass (host of The Players Championship) shape as good indicators. They each require driving accuracy for different reasons. Harbour Town has overhanging trees along the fairways which can compromise approach angles. TPC Sawgrass is dotted with water throughout the property.
As such, it also makes sense to consider Sedgefield Country Club. The link between TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield is one of the strongest correlations of all PGA Tour courses. It demands driving accuracy, but also has the added benefit of a requirement to keep up with low scoring.
Wai’alae Country Club is another guide, with tree lined fairways on a short course keeping accuracy front of mind along with very similar approach distance metrics. With the return of bentgrass greens, the recent RBC Canadian Open and the Memorial Tournament can be used for SG: Putting data.
As is often the case in signature events, there is little chance of a weather edge developing in our Travelers Championship preview. Given the reduced field, the tee-time window when golfers will be on the course is reduced. The prevents an edge developing given the lack of distinct disparity between the morning and evening. Further, with no cut, this has less benefit for DFS players.
Thursday looks to be very windy from the afternoon onwards. Those going off earliest should benefit, although the advantage is somewhat limited given the tee-time window is likely to only be two hours. On Friday, there is a chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the evening. I suspect that they will try to get all groups out as early as possible on Friday morning.
There is a chance that lift, clean, and place could be in play. This means golfers who find the fairway can remove any mud off the golf ball and also give themselves a perfect lie. It would only further emphasise the importance on driving accuracy this week.
Saturday looks calm and the course should be soft if the forecast rain arrives. Scoring should be good. Should the weather preview hold true, Sunday sees some wind return, hopefully leading to an exciting conclusion for the Travelers Championship.
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Well, here was me thinking I had recovered from my post travel illness, only to come down with COVID in the middle of a major week. It’s actually my first time having the bug. Considering I remained healthy through 3 instances of my young daughter having it, I had hoped I was somehow immune and would be able to sell my blood for science to fund my retirement. Such was the extent of infection from our friend’s 30th birthday event, the group chat has now been renamed “Zoe’s 30th Super-Spreader Event”. But, you think that’s going to keep me down? In a major week? I don’t think so! Ain’t no way I was missing putting together a US Open preview for all you good folks (albeit with strategic naps in between).
Scottie Scheffler continues to defy all logic and reason with another outrageous statistical performance. His nearly +13 SG: APP was the 7th best approach round since strokes gained data began in 2004. It is the nature of tournaments which he is completing these feats that is perhaps the most astonishing. He is -106 across the last 8 events, where field average is +5. And that is assuming you made the cut in all 8 tournaments.
That makes life very difficult for those who bet golf. It is pretty remarkable we remain at a very small loss for ROI on the year (-3.72%). That has mainly been buoyed by our continued performance on the DP World Tour and regular place money on the PGA Tour. Given returns of 32.71% in 2023 and 24.9% in 2024, we will keep fighting the good fight whilst we weather the Scheffler storm.
The 124th US Open returns to Pinehurst No. 2 for their 4th opportunity to host this historic tournament. Over that time, just four players have shot under-par. Outside of a Kaymer runaway victory in 2014 when -9, the other three (Fowler, Compton, and Payne) all shot just -1. Michael Campbell won at even par by two over Tiger Woods here in 2005. Another Kiwi, Danny Lee, also won the US Amateur at this venue. Kia kaha!
Amazingly, Pinehurst Resort & Country Club actually has 10 full 18-hole golf courses. Throw in a 9-hole short course and 18-hole putting course for good measure. A true golfing mecca and, for many, Pinehurst remains an iconic home of golf in the USA.
Perhaps the most important note is the restoration of Pinehurst No. 2 in 2011. As has been seen in many major championship venues, the mission of Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw was to return the course back to Donald Ross’ original intentions. Most notably, that included the removal of an astonishing 35 acres of turf and restoration of the sandy waste areas lining these fairways.
It is often said that all US Open venues play somewhat similar. I think, any many ways, Pinehurst No. 2 breaks that mold.
Yes, it will be devilishly tough this week. The course is also very long at 7,543 yards for a par 70. The course will play very firm and fast. Greenskeepers have already been spotted watering the greens as early as Tuesday to try keep the course somewhat under control.
Fairways are wide at 35-45 yards on average. However, given the firmness they may play somewhat narrower than what is read on paper. Different to other US Open venues, which love to introduce extremely penal rough, the course has practically none. Instead, stray off the fairway and you run the lottery of finding yourself in sand (preferable) or wire grass (possibly unplayable).
There is often a right and wrong side of the fairway to play your approach shot, to access these difficult greens. Given the course length, it is inevitable you will see a large number of approach shots from over 200+ yards.
Much has been made of those dome shaped greens. You have likely seen them described as upside-down saucers or akin to turtle backs. This effectively reduces the size of the greens significantly. Despite the 6,500sq feet the greens read on paper, the landing area where you need to play to is much smaller. The lack of rough means low running shots are a possibility, much like at links golf courses.
Finally, note after the 2014 US Open the greens switched from bentgrass to bermudagrass. This will be the first US Open played on bermudagrass greens.
As such, although prior form in US Opens is desirable, that comes more from an ability to keep an even temperament in the face of a difficult course than any course correlations. Of other Major Championship venues I suspect that Chamber’s Bay, Shinnecock Hills, and Oak Hill play the most similar. East Lake Golf Club is another Donald Ross design which you can consider this week.
I see links form as a real positive this week. Performing in The Open Championship is respected. It could also see a few players from the DP World Tour emerge, with the Alfred Dunhill Links a decent general guide and the Scottish Open providing some assistance for PGA Tour based players. Bay Hill asks similar questions but in a different way.
The golf course reminds me a lot of a number of courses in the Melbourne Sandbelt region. An Australian hasn’t won this tournament since Geoff Ogilvy in 2006, but perhaps this US Open preview as their best opportunity to snag one.
In general, the weather looks relatively inane all week. Winds look to remain in the single digits all week and gusts shouldn’t threaten over 20mph.
Most notably though, there has been a distinct lack in rain in North Carolina. The fact that they are already having to water the greens beginning the week is a sign that this course can play as fast as they wish. The masochistic in mean hopes they let it run rampant.
Fairways will narrow as a result, all though the course may seem to play a little shorter given the run after the carry from drives. Greens are set to run above 13.5 on the stimpmeter. Holding greens will be extremely difficult and inventive short-game will be important, as well as holing putts to try keep momentum. Needless to say, par will often be a great score and see you gain strokes on the field. Bring it on!
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 US Open. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
If you’ve not already, make sure to catch the US Open PGA Draftcast as we preview this week’s Major. We even had a special return from Sia Nejad to share his intel. Let the team know on Twitter whose line-up you think won!
Firstly, thank you all for being a little patient with me over the last fortnight with article production. I’ve been gallivanting around the world again for some work commitments, in this instance to the Philippines. And, as is often the case, I managed to get a bug on the way home. Initially, something I dubbed the “Manila Thriller” followed by a cold, but fortunately not COVID. It is great to be back into the swing of things for a signature event with our Memorial Tournament preview.
However, the golf tips have kept rolling for a great couple of weeks. We hit Nacho Elvira at the Soudal Open for a 75/1 winner on the DP World Tour. We then backed that up with another fabulous week on both sides of the pond. At the European Open, we had both Niklas Norgaard and Julien Guerrier in 4th. Fellow Kiwi Ryan Fox held a 4-shot lead with 25 holes to play, before he looked at a leaderboard. 5 of our selections at the RBC Canadian Open finished 21st or better (with 4 of those in the top 10). It was especially pleasing considering we had limited data on a relatively rare appearance of Hamilton Golf and Country Club.
The signature event returns to Muirfield Village Golf Club, affectionately known as “Jack’s Place”. Jack Nicklaus designed the course in 1974 before the inaugural PGA Tour tournament in 1976. He then undertook a renovation in 2020 which saw all green complexes remodeled, restored bunkering, and lengthening of the course. As such, we have a wealth of data to delve into this week.
The course is perhaps Nickalus’ most iconic design and his stylization of this track is clear to see. A key for all of Nicklaus’ courses is that they should reward players for the gifts they possess. If you have distance, you should be able to use it. However, if you miss the fairway, you will be penalized. Muirfield Village was designed with Augusta National in mind, visible in the heavily undulating greens.
Despite on paper being a very long 7,533 yard par 72, driving accuracy has been a better predictor of success. The rough is thick and lush at 4 inches Kentucky bluegrass. It has been the highest missed fairway penalty on the PGA Tour in 5 of the last 7 seasons. Adding to that, heavy rain has been experienced throughout May in Ohio.
Greens are relatively small at 5,000sq ft on average. The course has ranked in the top 5 most difficult for SG: APP on the PGA Tour every season since the 2020 restorations. We see 35% of all iron shots occur from 200+ yards and 50% of all approaches from 175+ yards. Notably, the Par 5s are still reachable by even the shorter hitters.
Finally, SG: ATG is a key factor. The course ranked in the 6 most difficult for SG: ATG since 2015. As such, we honed in on driving accuracy, SG: APP (particularly over 175 yards), and SG: ATG this week.
Given the Nicklaus signature design across the property, we can look at a couple of other designs from the Golden Bear for guidance. PGA National has always proven a stern major like test, and that is what we can expect to find this week. Winning scores should not get out of hand there, and a total of -10 to -15 can get the job done. Valhalla stacks up very well also. This has the added benefit of featuring bentgrass greens and ticking the box on recent form, given the PGA Championship was held there just a fortnight ago.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is also analogous. The Valspar Championship has always rewarded driving accuracy over distance (although both are preferable at each). That largely comes down to similar reasons to Muirfield Village: that the rough is long and the fairways are tree-lined. You see a disproportionate number of shots from over 200+ yards, as golfers favour accuracy off the tee and leave themselves a longer approach.
I’ll give a nod to the Wells Fargo Championship host, with Quail Hollow also looking for longer but accurate drivers and providing a stern test. And, of course, I do think it is a benefit if you have played well at Augusta National. Particularly, look for solid performance there around and on those undulating green complexes which we see emulated by Nicklaus here.
Often with signature events, there is little to say about the weather. With most of these events having no cut, they also feature condensed tee-times with all golfers hitting the course within two hours of the rest of the field. Without a cut, you are far more likely to see the cream rise to the top by the end of the week.
However, it is worth noting the differences this week. The event does feature a cut, albeit only to 50 golfers and ties or those within 10 strokes of the lead by the conclusion of round 2. Additionally, all groups will start on the 1st tee this week. That means there is a substantial gap between the field. The first players (a lone Davis Thompson) begin play at 7:40 am local with the final pair not going out until 2:00 pm.
There may be a benefit for those going out earliest on Thursday morning. Prevailing winds should sit in the single digits until around 11:00 am, before rising to mid-teens for the remainder of the day. Heavy gusts are predicted for later in the afternoon, reaching as strong as 25-28mph. Friday should be windy all day, with gusts of between 28-35mph.
With heavy rain overnight Wednesday, I suspect Thursday AM get both softer and calmer conditions. I would not be surprised to see lift, clean, and place in-play. That would further benefit those who gain on the field for driving accuracy.
Ensure you have signed up for WinDaily Premium to access all our final weather decisions closer to tee time. Information is available right up until play starts to provide you with any identifiable weather edge that can be gleaned. This is particularly for DFS, with players priced under $7,500 most affected by any weather edge.
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the Memorial tournament. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
Well, I may have a small part of premonition on the PGA Tour last week in our preview of the Wells Fargo Championship. I mentioned that there may be some hope for punters trying to find some value with no Scottie Scheffler in the field and Ludvig Aberg WD with knee injury concerns. I went on to say that it probably meant Rory McIlroy would win. We duly struck a blow for punters, becoming yet another short-priced favourite to win on the PGA Tour. There, I will fess up, I jinxed it. Sorry, all.
True to form, I mentioned an interesting PGA stat I found in the lead-up to the Wells Fargo Championship preview. Just two winners had sat outside the Top 31 for ball speed when they won at Quail Hollow. It may be frustrating to see another short-priced winner, but it was reassuring to see our analysis played true in that regard.
But, let’s get honest. It has been a dire season for nearly all golf punters. It has been either very short-priced favourites or extreme long-shots taking out most tournaments for the season. So often, golf betting value is found in the 50/1 to 100/1 range. There have been just 4 such winners on the PGA Tour this year. Fortunately, finding Pavon at 125/1 at the Farmers Insurance Open has saved us from complete decimation. However, we stick to the process with the knowledge that when it comes to golf analysis following the numbers will eventually lead to a positive result over the long run.
Speaking of Rory McIlroy, the PGA Championship returns to Valhalla Golf Club, a course we last had the chance to preview some 10 years ago. That was the venue of Rory’s last major victory, and he arrives in a rich vein of form off the back of consecutive victories. Included in that was the win at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, where Quail Hollow should play analogous to Valhalla.
This feels like another venue that will do what it says on the tin. Valhalla, designed by Jack Nicklaus and played in the state of Kentucky, is an epic 7,609 yards par 71. Quail Hollow is also a par 71 and a mere 51 yards shorter. Both also feature a driveable par 4 and reasonably narrow fairways.
That is a hallmark of Nicklaus-designed golf courses. He tests every element of a player’s game. So, if pulling driver, you will be rewarded with extra distance if you keep the ball in-play. However, fairways narrow significantly at landing areas with thick hay and fairway bunkers awaiting any tee shot that falls too astray.
Greens are a little smaller than Quail Hollow and are bentgrass. They will be firm and fast, typical of a PGA Championship venue. Par will often be a very good score and see you gaining strokes on the field.
Finally, we have a rare emergence of zoysiagrass fairways. This grass type features rarely on the PGA Tour. We see this at regular stops at TPC Craig Ranch, TPC Southwind, and East Lake Golf Club. This polarizing grass has a higher rate of water retention. Some players comment that it feels like hitting the ball off a tee. Others complain that it can produce flyers, with the grass getting caught between the ball and club face and traveling further than expected.
As mentioned, this is a rare circumstance where last week’s tournament provides not only some guidance of recent form but a course that should demand similar skills from our golfers in this PGA Championship preview.
Quail Hollow matches in a large number of metrics, from overall performance off the tee, and similar approach metrics as expected this week where any shots over 175 yards will see a disproportionate weighting compared to other PGA Tour venues.
Given some of the weather to be discussed shortly, I think that the 2022 PGA Championship could be a reasonable guide to this week. Oak Hill also is far from the worst guide to consider.
I have also included some weighting in my model to recent zoysiagrass performances. Although the venues often produce lower-scoring tournaments, we can look into the approach numbers at these PGA Tour stops to identify players who may prefer this grass type.
Weather certainly looks like it could play a role in this year’s PGA Championship preview. Thursday currently looks to be quite calm, although early morning fog may see play delayed by an hour or two if heavy. Particularly, Thursday morning looks to be quite still and should provide optimal scoring conditions with the course still a little moist from rain earlier in the week.
Friday afternoon, we could see some more volatile weather arrive. There is a chance of thunderstorms from 1pm and winds will increase, gusting up to 25-30mph. There is always the risk with thunderstorms that play is delayed. This can cause any weather edge to flip 180°.
However, in this instance, forecasts have Saturday being very windy and high gusts all day. Thos on Friday PM would only find themselves in more volatile winds should they need to finish round 2 on Saturday morning.
That leads me to believe there should be a weather edge for tee-times from Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. That always comes with the caveat that weather forecasts can flip quickly, especially when there is the looming chance of thunderstorms.
Ensure you have signed up for WinDaily Premium to access all our final weather decisions closer to tee time. Information is available right up until play starts to provide you with any identifiable weather edge that can be gleaned. This is particularly for DFS, with players priced under $7,500 most affected by any weather edge. You will find this information and more in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
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For most punters, it’s fair to say it has been a polarizing season on the PGA Tour so far. Mixed in between a number of extremely short-priced Scottie Scheffler victories, whose four wins all came at less than $7.50, there have been a number of long-shot winners. In fact, an outstanding 8 of the first 13 tournaments this year were won by a golfer paying triple figures come tournament start. Just five victories have come at less than 80/1 this year that weren’t Scheffler. Fortunately for us, we managed to hit Matthieu Pavon at 125/1, which has helped to keep our head above water. Also fortunately for this week’s Wells Fargo Championship preview, we picked Wyndham Clark successfully here at 75/1 for his debut PGA Tour victory.
In case you were wondering, those five winners under 80/1 in 2024 (who weren’t Scottie Scheffler) are as follows. They were Wyndham Clark at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am (60/1), Jake Knapp at the Mexico Open (40/1), Stephan Jaeger at the Houston Open (50/1), Akshay Bhatia at the Texas Open (50/1), and Billy Horschel at the Corales Puntacana (20/1).
Finally, perhaps the largest stroke of fortune in hopefully finding some value this week is that Scottie Scheffler is not playing. With the withdrawal of Ludvig Aberg from a course that should’ve really suited him also has to assist. Which, of course, probably means Rory McIlroy wins this week.
The host course this week, Quail Hollow Club, provides many advantages for our Wells Fargo Championship preview this week. Firstly, this tournament has been hosted at this venue on 18 prior occasions. The golf course also hosted the Kemper Open on 11 occasions, if you wish to deep-dive back to the 1970s. This provides a wealth of data to delve into. Secondly, the course does exactly what it says on the tin.
Initially, the mention of those 1970s tournaments may seem pretty inert. Until you find out that Tom Weiskopf won the event 3 times in that 11 year span. He was regarded as one of the longest drivers of the golf ball at the time, along with one of the most consistent ball-strikers of his era.
Not much has changed some 50 years later. That helps our preview of the Wells Fargo Championship. The golf course is a mammoth 7,558 yard par 71. Pound-for-pound, that makes it the longest PGA Tour venue of the regular stops for the year. It should come as no surprise, then, that driving distance is a real asset at this golf course.
That translates as far as the approach shots. A whopping 75% of all approach shots will occur from over 150 yards. If there is a flaw in Rory McIlroy’s game, it is perhaps his wedges. Therefore, it should be no surprise that he has won three times, finished runner-up twice, and an additional four Top 10s to boot on a course where he really ends up with a short-iron in hand. That’s a remarkable rate of 2/3rds of his appearances resulting in a Top 10 here.
Given those metrics, and particularly weighing in the approach data, ball speed is an interesting statistic to consider this week.
Since 2007, only two winners at Quail Hollow have ranked worse than 31st in ball speed for the PGA Tour season. Those were James Hahn (2016, ranked 83/207 at tournament start) and Rickie Fowler (2012, ranked 46/187 at tournament start). Last year’s champion Wyndham Clark finished 3rd in that ranking for both the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
As a matter of curiosity, here are the current players ranked 31st or better for the season in ball speed that are in this week’s field:
4th Wyndham Clark
5th Rory McIlroy
7th Gary Woodland
9th Tony Finau
10th Xander Schauffele
11th Jake Knapp
16th Nick Dunlap
17th Cameron Young
26th Byeong-Hun An
30th Taylor Pendrith
Sam Burns, ranking 32nd, is the bubble boy.
Alongside the wealth of data to delve into for our Wells Fargo Championship preview, we also have the added benefit of a course with some of the stickiest course history on the PGA Tour. Only Augusta National, Riviera, TPC Scottsdale, and Bay Hill hold stronger correlations.
What does that mean? Well, that this golf course prefers a particular type of player, and it’s repeatable. Further, arriving in a lack of form is less of a hinderance than at other venues if you have played well at Quail Hollow before.
If you weren’t following these pages back at the 2023 US Open, we went one further on Wyndham Clark and also successfully tipped him at 80/1. Part of the reason was we suspected Los Angeles Country Club would play quite similar to Quail Hollow.
We weren’t disappointed. The tournament produced a leaderboard near identical to a Wells Fargo Championship.
Alongside Clark, we also selected Rickie Fowler who was first round leader, tied with Clark for the lead entering the final round, and finished 5th. Plus Xander Schauffele, who was also FRL, 6th entering the final round, and finished 10th.
Fowler has the 3rd best strokes gained total of all recorded rounds at Quail Hollow, including his maiden PGA Tour win. Xander ranks in the top 15 for SG of those who have played the course at least 4 times. Rory McIlroy finished runner-up. Fleetwood finished 5th at both courses in 2023, with English finishing 3rd at Quail Hollow and 8th at LACC.
Another to consider is Bay Hill, a long driving golf course where ball-striking is at a premium. And, finally, the Valspar Championship which requires a large number of approach shots over 200+ yards and shares the same bermuda greens overseeded with poa annua.
As we have mentioned previously at these signature field events, the reduction in size to just 69 players does limit any weather edge that can be gained. Whereas in a larger field tournament there is more dispersion in tee-times, here all golfers will be out on the golf course within 2 hours of each other. As such, there is less opportunity for any particular tee-time to gain an advantage by being on the golf course at a certain time.
Thursday looks a windy day, with prevailing winds reaching 15-20mph and gusts over 30mph. There is a small chance of thunderstorms, but likely insufficient to result in play not completing that day. Friday morning should provide calmer winds in the morning, but quickly increasing from 1pm onwards to similar levels seen on Thursday. Given the first tee-times are at 11am local, there may be a minor advantage for those going out first on Friday morning.
All models point to Saturday and Sunday being calm, with scoring likely to be best on these days.
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We are right back into it this week as we preview the RBC Heritage! The PGA Tour really have no option but to make this a signature event. The tournament has a lot of legacy behind it. The tournament has been played the week after The Masters for the past 40 years. Arnold Palmer was the inaugural champion here, with co-designed Jack Nicklaus winning here a few years later. It is a relaxing change of pace from Augusta National which the players enjoy. Further, the PGA Tour get to strike while the iron is hot and attempt to capitalise on new fans who joined to watch The Masters. Finally, RBC is one of the biggest sponsors of the PGA Tour and support multiple events. All this leads to a situation where we can have no Masters hangover and have to dive into another signature event preview at the RBC Heritage.
In regard to The Masters, the phrase I have seen most often this week to describe Scottie Scheffler’s emphatic victory is “inevitable”. That does a disservice to his efforts and achievement. There were four golfers tied for the lead with 10 holes to go. As they say, The Masters doesn’t really start until the last 9 holes on Sunday. Scheffler simply slammed the door shut on everyone. A run of 5-under across 9 holes under those circumstances was incredibly impressive. So, there is one word I would use to describe his performance. It was clinical.
Zalatoris was our closest charge last week, racking up another Top 10 at Augusta National. 250/1 selection Ryan Fox was also just 2 shots off the lead Saturday, before fading after perhaps surprisingly finding himself in contention.
Certainly, any time you can take on a short-priced favourite you will be able to find some value further down the board. Other than the fact that Scottie Scheffler is on constant baby-watch, there may be other reasons to take on the best player in golf right now. And aiding our RBC Heritage preview this week is this golf course.
This niggly test is polar opposite to Augusta National in nearly every way. Long hitters have often found success at The Masters, with ample space off the tee and driver used often. Greens are large, although the actual target area is reduced substantially given the undulating greens and multiple tiers.
Harbour Town is, instead, a fiddly test. Accuracy off the tee is paramount. This goes beyond finding the fairway to being on the right side of the fairway. Hanging trees can often impede players on approach, so finding the right angle is imperative for accessing these very small greens. They average just 3,700 sq ft in size.
Those small greens also sees a large uptick in ATG performance as a predictive factor. It is inevitable that greens will be missed around this golf course. Taking a look at the last two champions, Matt Fitzpatrick and Jordan Spieth (who was also runner-up in 2023), they represent two of the best players on Tour with their short-game creativity.
Finally, there is an interesting dispersion of approach shots at Harbour Town. Given players being forced to play from similar spots, we see just one predicted approach shot from 50-100 yards and 2 shots from 200+ yards. Consequently, there is a large uptick in approach from 150-200 yards (9 shots predicted) and 100-150 yards (6 shots). This is some of the largest disparity we see on the PGA Tour all year.
Pete Dye’s iconic course designs feature frequently on the tour. This provides a multitude of options to consider in your RBC Heritage preview. But, of those, TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship) and Austin Country Club (WGC Matchplay) provide short courses where accuracy and scrambling are essential.
TPC Sawgrass (The Players) is worthy of consideration, although it doesn’t quite match the required approach numbers strong performances there are noted. Sedgefield Country Club maintains links as a positional course where shorter drivers can thrive but driving accuracy is at a premium. Sedgefield is also highly correlated to TPC Sawgrass, adding to those ties for your RBC Heritage preview.
The Sea Island courses (RSM Classic) have strong correlating connections to here. It is another tree-lined coastal course, meaning driving accuracy and approach are key. Waialae Country Club (Sony Open) tells a similar tale.
There is little to note in the weather this week. Firstly, the condensed 69 man field means that all players will be on the course at relatively similar times. This reduces the opportunity for any tangible weather advantage to develop which is worthy of actioning.
Secondly, the weather itself looks pretty benign. The course is sheltered with trees for the most part, with only a few holes truly exposed to the coastline. Winds look to hover at a maximum of mid-teens for gusts. There is a small chance of thunderstorms on both Friday and Saturday. Again, the small field should ensure that even if play is disrupted they should be able to get the tournament complete in good time.
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The 2024 Masters is nearly upon us. What is it about Augusta National Golf Club that makes this golf course so very special? Is it because this is the only major played at the same golf course every year? Is it the legacy; where winning here places you firmly amongst the greats in the annals of golf history? The lack of cell phones; in an age where we are addicted to those glowing white screens? Or the $1.50 pimento cheese sandwiches; which have not changed in price in over 20 years? The blooming azaleas, the roars on Sunday, the carefully manicured grass, or the spring sunshine glistening through the tall pines?
Whatever it is that makes this event special for you, the 2024 Masters feels a little more so than most. As the fractured game of professional golf puts all those conflicts aside (hopefully), we see the best in the game all play together for a change in pursuit of donning the green jacket. A tradition unlike any other.
Typically, this is actually one of the more predictable events on the PGA Tour. Certainly, it is the easiest of the majors. Although the field averages between just 80-90 players, you can further strike a line through a number of amateurs and past champions who realistically have little chance of success in The Masters for 2024.
I’ve correctly tipped Danny Willett at 100/1, Garcia at 50/1, Woods at 20/1, and Matsuyama at 50/1 over recent years. We even had Charl Schwartzel in 2011 at 100/1 (if you want to go back before I was covering golf more seriously). Add in a few close calls and near misses as well.
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This week more than most, you will see all sorts of trends thrown around. Those desperate to unravel the 2024 Masters winner will latch onto any thread they may stumble across in order to try tip who will eventually lift the Augusta National clubhouse trophy aloft come Sunday.
The inherent flaw of any trend is you can make it suit whatever timeframe and statistic suits the trend’s narrative. Trends like “7/10 recent winners had a top 12 in the month before The Masters” only matter if this is statistically significant compared to other venues. Is 70% having a 12th place finish or better in the last month disproportionally higher than those winning other tournaments? Or, is some general decent form in the past month a reasonable guide to those who have a chance to win any upcoming tournament?
My favourite recently was that 7/8 of the recent winners had finished 37th or better in their prior Masters start. Reed had a MC the year before, demonstrating how you can manipulate a trend to display something “meaningful”. Particularly, I enjoyed this because you then supposedly have to exclude a player who finished 38th. Imagine Scottie Scheffler finished 38th last year. Sorry Scottie, know you are playing great, but you just don’t fit the trend. And the field only has 90 players, so is finishing 37th really all that determinative?
There is merit to those who have had opportunities to learn the course. However, you will likely hear the average number of starts prior to winning is 6. Again, limiting it to that many events means Will Zalatoris gets punished for having finished 2nd and 6th. Or Theegala is excluded for having finished 9th on debut.
In short, my advice is to approach trends with caution and a dose of skepticism.
What makes identifying a potential winner at The Masters easier than most golf courses?
Firstly, it is well documented that Augusta National has the stickiest course history of any PGA Tour event. What does that mean? Well, if you have played here well previously, that is a very good predictor of playing well again here in the future. There is perhaps no finer recent example than a 52-year-old Phil Mickelson turning up to this event in 2023, having played competitive golf just three times with finishes of 27-30-41 in a 54 man tournament, and still finishing 2nd.
The next question is: why? Much of that comes down to the heavily contoured greens. The subtleties (and, sometimes, severities) of these green complexes, along with often very sharp runoffs, reduces down the effective size of the target depending on where the pin is placed. At Augusta National Golf Club, more than most, the pin is the destination but your optimal journey may involve aiming away from the target initially. As such, SG: ATG is important with the ability to get up and down from tight lies and bunkers key to keeping momentum.
Driving distance is a real asset, with the golf course ranking in the top 5 for length on the PGA Tour at 7,545 yards. The attention to detail goes as far as the landscapers extends to mowing the grass in the direction of the tees to further inhibit carry distance from off-the-tee. As such, we see a disproportionate number of approach shots from 200+ yards but particularly from 150-200 yards. The list of past champions reads of some of the best ball-strikers the game has ever seen.
Secondly, we also have some of the best comp courses as predictive form guides towards Augusta National. On the PGA Tour, those are Riviera Country Club, host of the Genesis Invitational, and the Plantation Course at Kapalua, host of The Sentry. That goes well beyond Jon Rahm winning both events enroute to putting on the green jacket last year.
Riviera is a ball-striking paradise, where shot shaping is key alongside a stout short-game. Two-time Masters champion Bubba Watson has won three times at Riviera. 2013 Masters champion Adam Scott has won twice there. Three-time Masters champion Phil Mickelson is also a two-time winner at Riviera in 2008 and 2009. Dustin Johnson won there in 2017 and, most recently, 2021 Masters winner Hideki Matsuyama won at Riviera earlier this year.
The Plantation Course at Kapalua is heavily undulated with multiple elevation changes. This often results in iron shots with the ball either above or below your feet, much akin to what is required at The Masters. On paper, they are a very similar yardage as well at 7,545 yards vs 7,596 yards at Plantation.
Spieth finished 2nd in the 2014 Sentry, won the 2015 Masters, won the 2016 Sentry, then nearly defended at the 2016 Masters. He finished 3rd at The Sentry again this year. Cam Smith has an excellent record at Augusta National. He won the 2022 Sentry before finishing 3rd at The Masters. Other winners completing the double are Sergio Garcia, Dustin Johnson, Zach Johnson, Patrick Reed, Mark O’Meara, Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, and Tiger Woods.
Don’t forget the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour. Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia both won in Dubai the same year they won The Masters, a promising sign for 2024 champion Rory McIlroy.
Finally, regular readers of these pages will know that weather plays an important factor in our process. No sport is more susceptible to the elements than golf. Additionally, bookmakers are notoriously slow to reacting to weather forecasts, potentially providing a weather edge for those going out at a certain tee-time.
Thursday and Friday simply look decidedly gnarly. Thursday currently has forecasts for heavy rain, thunderstorms, and winds gusting above 45mph. Friday should see clearer skies, but winds in the vicinity of 38-42mph based on long-run forecasts.
It is likely to early to accurately predict whether early or late starters get an advantage. However, there is a very real possibility that some form of weather advantage will exist this week. Although The Masters 2024 field numbers 89, all players go off the first tee meaning a wide range of tee-times are experienced.
Make sure you stay locked in with us right until tournament start. We will be posting the latest weather predictions using our premium modelling in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
Having enjoyed our tapas, we arrive at the basque ribeye portion of the article.
The players below are listed in order of odds for The Masters 2024, from favourite to the longest of long-shots. I’ve covered every player in the field who is priced less than 150/1 to win the tournament.
Provided are each golfer’s odds, best Masters finish, Masters record, Masters average score, number of Masters scores in the 60s, Riviera record, Plantation record, and Dubai Desert Classic record if it exists.
Remember The Sentry tournament (which aptly dropped the “of Champions” part of the title this year) features a limited field of golfers. Previously only featuring the winners from the previous calendar year, it is now slightly larger by also including all golfers who qualified for the Tour Championship. Therefore, read the Plantation course form in this context as finishing 20th there is actually a relatively poor week.
Without further ado, let’s get into it.
Average Betting Odds: $4.50
Draftkings Pricing: $12,100
Best Masters Finish: 1st (2022)
Masters Record: 19-18-W-10
Masters Average Score: 70.69
Riviera Record: MC-30-20-7-12-10
Plantation Record: 13-7-5
Scottie Scheffler arrives at The Masters as the shortest-priced favorite since some bloke named Tiger Woods in 2013. He has also been hitting the ball consistently at a rate only previously seen by Tiger Woods. The issue for the last year has been the putter. Had the flat-stick been firing and gaining only one strokes to the field per round putting, he would easily have at least another half-dozen PGA Tour victories to his name.
The odds have only plummeted further after a switch to a new mallet putter found immediate rewards. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational, successfully defended against the strongest field in golf at The Players Championship, and then came 2nd at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. The latter also saw him miss a 7-foot putt at the last hole to take it to a playoff.
Scheffler has finished 12th or better in an absurd 31 of his last 35 starts without missing a cut. That is 88.5% of his tournament starts finishing in the Top 12 since August 2022. Quite easily the best golfer in the world right now.
Obvious huge chance.
Average Betting Odds: $11
Draftkings Pricing: $10,800
Best Masters Finish: 2nd (2022)
Masters Record: 20-MC-15-40-25-8-4-10-7-5-21-5-MC-2-MC
Masters Average Score: 71.50
Riviera Record: 20-20-4-4-5-MC-10-29-24
Plantation Record: 4
Dubai Desert Classic Record: MC-52-MC-W-6-10-5-9-W-6-2-3-W-W
Oh Rory, Rory, Rory. Where to start with you. McIlroy arrives at Augusta National once again pursuing the final title to complete the career grand slam, a feat only completed by 5 golfers.
Although 2022 was his best finish yet, he was never in contention before a final round 64. I hoped that round would give him the confidence to exorcise some of the demons he has accumulated over the years at The Masters. He duly missed the cut.
I recently rewatched the 2011 Masters. He held a 4 shot lead entering the final round and you have to feel a tinge of sadness for the then 21-year-old McIlroy given the context of what has transpired since.
On paper, the course is a perfect fit for Rory’s game. He possess the physical skills and talent to win here. But, The Masters is not played on paper. And the hallowed turf of Augusta National has had the mental measure of McIlroy on many an occasion now.
In a positive for his chances, he has recently visited Butch Harmon again. The results were immediate, finishing 3rd at last week’s Texas Open (albeit losing by 9 strokes after an epic duel between Bhatia and McCarthy). Promisingly, he found his irons again. He was 3rd for SG: APP for the tournament, including ranking 2nd for SG: APP when gaining+3.72 SG: APP in the final round alone. Undoubtedly another positive is stepping away from his spokesperson role with PGA Tour in dealing with the LIV Golf threat. It was an unnecessary distraction to his primary purpose: playing golf and winning The Masters.
Who knows?
Average Betting Odds: $13.00
Draftkings Pricing: $11,200
Best Masters Finish: 1st (2023)
Masters Record: 27-4-9-7-5-27-W
Masters Average Score: 70.50
Riviera Record: 9-17-5-21-W
Plantation Record: 2-8-10-7-2-W
Jon Rahm enters the 2024 Masters as the defending champion and easily the biggest name to defect to LIV Golf.
How those two factors influence his title defense are anyone’s guess. Being champion comes with a multitude of obligations, from additional press conferences to hosting the Champion’s Dinner. Likewise, we can expect he will be questioned on his decision to move to LIV Golf.
Whilst the former may well be a distraction, I believe the latter may act as a catalyst. Rahm seems to be at his best when he is a little bit angry. I’m sure some savvy reporters can illicit that emotion from him this week.
Rahm won both The Sentry and the Genesis Invitational enroute to his Masters title, further entrenching those strong bonds entering 2024. Since the move to LIV he has not won, but has also performed as expected finishing no worse than 8th from 5 starts. Also boasts the joint lowest scoring average from The Masters 2024 field, a notable feat having played 28 rounds here.
Would become just the 4th golfer to successfully defend The Masters joining Jack Nickalus (1965, 1966), Nick Faldo (1989, 1990), and Tiger Woods (2001, 2002).
He is a strong chance to do so.
Average Betting Odds: $15.00
Draftkings Pricing: $9,900
Best Masters Finish: 2nd (2019)
Masters Record: 50-2-17-3-MC-10
Masters Average Score: 71.32
Riviera Record: 9-15-23-15-13-33-4
Plantation Record: 22-W-2-5-12-WD-10
Theoretically, this may be the best chance for Xander to finally knock the monkey off his back and get his first major victory.
Xander ranks out the 2nd best golfer for SG: Total over the past 6 months in this field. He has finished 18th or better in the 7 majors since missing the cut here in 2022.
The difficulty comes as it often does with Schauffele: actually winning. He has now failed to win a tournament in any format since July 2022. He had a fabulous opportunity to close out The Players Championship earlier this year, before missing several key putts on his way to a runner up finish.
His most notable achievement has been winning the gold medal at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. Although, it should be noted he finished runner-up here to Tiger Woods’ return to glory in 2019.
Would not be surprised if he finishes top 5 without ever being in contention. Again.
Average Betting Odds: $19.00
Draftkings Pricing: $9,000
Best Masters Finish: 1st (2021)
Masters Record: 27-54-MC-5-7-11-19-32-13-W-14-16
Masters Average Score: 71.54
Riviera Record: 23-4-11-MC-9-5-MC-39-MC-W
Plantation Record: 3-2-4-41-13-21-58
Matsuyama looks to have rediscovered his very best form right before The Masters for 2024.
After a 13th at the long and tricky Torrey Pines, and a weird weather affected Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Hideki has hit his stride. 22nd at the WM Phoenix Open was followed by a win at the correlated Riviera, with one of the finest final rounds we may see this season. Keeping his hot hand, he has ticked off a 12th at Bay Hill, a 6th at The Players, and 7th last week in the Texas Open.
The fact those results have come off the back of a return to his best ball-striking is even more promising. That is the fundamental profile of Hideki Matsuyama as a golfer, and why Augusta National is such a good fit for him.
Strong chance to become a multiple Masters champion.
Average Betting Odds: $21.00
Draftkings Pricing: $9,300
Best Masters Finish: 1st (2015)
Masters Record: 2-W-2-11-3-21-46-3-MC-4
Masters Average Score: 70.66
Riviera Record: MC-12-4-MC-22-9-51-59-15-26-MC-DQ
Plantation Record: 2-W-3-9-21-13-3
It still amazes me that Jordan Spieth is only a one time Masters champion. It truly feels like he has compiled at least three here.
Much of that comes from his stunning introduction to Augusta National, finishing runner-up on debut to then win the title the following year and go close again in 2016. Finishing 4th or better in 60% of his Masters starts is no small feat. Not only is Spieth strong enough off the tee to contend, his irons can fire at any time, and his magical short-game is a superb asset few possess at Augusta National.
Finished an admirable 3rd at The Sentry and was well on track for a good Genesis Invitational finish before an untimely wrong scorecard saw him DQ.
He played the Texas Open in perhaps the most Spieth-ian fashion one can imagine. That featured an opening round with 5 bogeys and a double bogey, plus a hole-in-one. Finished his Sunday by purposely hitting onto the clubhouse as his best option given his situation, en route to a final round 69 and 10th place finish. Predictably unpredictable.
You could tell me Spieth wins this week or finishes 43rd and I would believe you.
Average Betting Odds: $21.00
Draftkings Pricing: $10,200
Best Masters Finish: 2nd (2019, 2023)
Masters Record: 33-21-11-2-7-MC-2
Masters Average Score: 71.46
Riviera Record: MC-43-38-MC
Plantation Record: 3-34-24-28
Dubai Desert Classic Record: 3
Don’t let the record at the comp courses or his recent form perturb you. Koepka cares about literally nothing but the Majors.
Few golfers can boast that they have won fewer PGA Tour events than Majors. None can say they have won 5 Majors, but just 4 regular season PGA Tour tournaments. Truly bizarre.
That freakish ability to simply turn on his game for these events is what makes Koepka so difficult. I could write about how dreadful he looked last week in LIV Miami, finishing 45th out of 54 players. Or that he has one win and one 5th place finish since July 2023. Because none of that really matters. The man is an enigma.
Will be keen to make right the final 29 holes from last year, where he lead by 4 shots before a rain delay and subsequent collapse to open the door for Jon Rahm.
Could win by multiple strokes from nowhere.
Average Betting Odds: $26.00
Draftkings Pricing: $9,600
Best Masters Finish: 16th (2023)
Masters Record: MC-40-35-16
Masters Average Score: 73.21
Riviera Record: 44-MC-43-W
Plantation Record: 5-2
Dubai Desert Classic Record: 4
It was pleasing to see Niemann earn a special invitation to this year’s Masters. It was awarded, deservedly so, after some superb play over the past 6 months.
Although the argument can certainly be made that the LIV Golf defectors knew the consequences of their actions, I do have some sympathy for those who joined early. They were promised by Greg Norman they would have OWGR points all nicely tucked away shortly. All whilst LIV failed to make any changes necessary to address the two key issues: lack or promotion/relegation and proof that team golf could influence play in individual leaderboard.
Niemann has earned the chance to play here and has been determined to do so. He took opportunities to play on DP World Tour where they were available, winning at the Australian Open to qualify for The Open Championship and finishing 4th at the Dubai Desert Classic. Two additional wins on the LIV tour made a compelling case for the Masters board. If only Talor Gooch had done the same.
His record at The Masters is one of continual improvement. 16th last year, he was also sitting 3rd after the first round in 2022.
We tipped Niemann at 50/1 in 2022, following his emphatic win at Riviera. We managed to snag a 2024 Masters bet on him at the same number with 5 places in the WinDaily Premium Discord as soon as he was added to the field. That number is long gone, delivering more CLV for our Premium family.
Leading chance.
Average Betting Odds: $29.00
Draftkings Pricing: $9,100
Best Masters Finish: N/A
Masters Record: N/A
Masters Average Score: N/A
Riviera Record: 19
Plantation Record: 47
Dubai Desert Classic Record: 70
Were he to win, Aberg would make an even larger splash on the world of golf than he has made already. Not only is this his first appearance at The Masters, it is also his first major. Ever.
That is a rare feat, given the majority of world number one amateurs manage to earn a Masters start by one of the numerous other pathways available through winning amateur tournaments.
Only two golfers have won on their major debut in the last 100 years. They were Ben Curtis at the 2003 Open Championship and Keegan Bradley in the 2011 PGA Championship. Aberg would also become the first player to break the curse on debutants since the 1979 win of Fuzzy Zoeller.
There may be no better chance for that record to fall than this week. The combined threat of Aberg and the next golfer in this list both provide a credible charge at the title.
Given his relative lack of tournament play anywhere, it is a little difficult to gauge where his performance may sit at The 2024 Masters. On paper, he possesses all of the talent required for success at Augusta National.
Would cement his name in the best 5 golfers on the planet for the foreseeable future with a win here.
Average Betting Odds: $29.00
Draftkings Pricing: $10,000
Best Masters Finish: N/A
Masters Record: N/A
Masters Average Score: N/A
Riviera Record: 17-8-DQ-33-MC
Plantation Record: 29
Wyndham Clark became an immediate favourite of the WinDaily Sports family, having been successfully tipped for his debut win at the Wells Fargo Championship at 75/1 and then again at his US Open win at 80/1.
Clark has since gone on to gain a reputation as a big game player. He finished 3rd at the Tour Championship, then started the year quietly before winning a signature event in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in wild weather. He popped back up again at two more signature events, finishing runner-up to Scottie Scheffler both at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then The Player Championship a week later. His odds were immediately cut from 50/1 to the 28s you can find now.
Of some concern would be the fact that outside the US Open win he has finished no better than 33rd in his other 7 major starts. However, I would point out that he is quite a different golfer than he was for the majority of those starts.
What changed for Clark was his approach play. He developed from simply a very long driver who could also putt well. Adding in his irons makes him a very dangerous prospect on any golf course, now ranking 13th for SG: APP in this field over the last 3 months.
Victory may be a bridge too far on debut, but wouldn’t be surprised by a top 10.
Average Betting Odds: $31.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,900
Best Masters Finish: 7th (2016)
Masters Record: MC-7-32-38-21-46-34-14-10
Masters Average Score: 72.24
Riviera Record: 30-5-MC-MC
Plantation Record: 7-14
Dubai Desert Classic Record: MC-45-5-MC-16-45-17
Notably for Fitzpatrick, his biggest victories have come at golf courses he shares a personal connection with. He won the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town, where he used to visit as a child. His debut major victory came at the US Open on the same golf course he won the US Amateur.
Making significant strides in his driving distance is an undoubted asset when arriving at Augusta National. You have to think as well that should the wild weather remain as forecast that would benefit Fitzpatrick, a well-renowned “mudder”. He won the 2023 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the DP World Tour in torrid conditions.
Certainly playable in DFS given his low price tag, but unsure he represents any value in betting markets.
Average Betting Odds: $31.00
Draftkings Pricing: $9,500
Best Masters Finish: 7th (2023)
Masters Record: 32-21-27-7
Masters Average Score: 71.69
Riviera Record: 5-4-20-19
Plantation Record: 31-30-18-22
Dubai Desert Classic Record: 23-W
It was a landmark 2023 for Hovland as he finished 7th at The Masters, 3rd at The Players Championship, 2nd at the PGA Championship, won The Memorial at Jack’s place, played a key role in Europe’s Ryder Cup win, then recorded back to back victories in the playoffs to lift the FedEx Cup.
So, Viktor did the only logical thing. He fired his coach.
Since then it has been, well, dreadful. 22nd at The Sentry is not all that impressive in a field of just 59. 19th at Riviera is at least correlated to here, but again came in a limited field with the tournament moving to a signature event. Outside of that, he has finished 58th, 36th, and 62nd. Perhaps there is more to the split than simply wanting to try something new, but Hovland has proven true the old adage of not fixing what ain’t broke.
In one positive, you can get a massive bump in his odds as a result. There is no chance you would find him anywhere above 15/1 had he shown a modicum of form over the past 3 months.
Can’t touch him until he shows something. Anything.
Average Betting Odds: $36.00
Draftkings Pricing: $9,400
Best Masters Finish: 9th (2019)
Masters Record: 47-MC-9-17-MC-39-14
Masters Average Score: 72.38
Riviera Record: MC-MC-4-15-17-15-33-3-4
Plantation Record: 15-4-13-4-16-12
Undoubtedly a talented, if somewhat frustrating and boring, golfer.
Much akin to his good friend Xander Schauffele, he is a perennial underachieve in the majors. Cantlay has perhaps managed even less in the biggest events, managing just 4 tops 10s in 26 attempts at the majors.
To his credit, he does look to have shown some improvement in that area. Since missing the cut in the 2022 PGA Championship, he has gone 14-8-14-9-14-33 in the majors. He also finished 4th at Riviera this year, backing up a 3rd place finish there in 2023.
The difficulty comes that he has never really felt the heat of battle down the final stretch. Further, he finished a lowly 68th at The Players and 36th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in his two starts when losing on approach both tournaments.
Has the talent, unsure he has the moxie.
Average Betting Odds: $36.00
Draftkings Pricing: $8,200
Best Masters Finish: 21st (2016)
Masters Record: 21-38-29-34-46-MC-MC
Masters Average Score: 72.96
Riviera Record: WD-41-15-5-MC
Plantation Record: 26-7-7-25
Dubai Desert Classic Record: 18-W-8
Augusta National has a funny way of enacting karma on it’s victims. None more so than Bryson DeChambeau, who outrageously claimed the course was a “par 67” for him in 2020. His record at The Masters since tells the rest of the story.
He attempted to walk back those comments somewhat last year, saying that he respected the course and what he really meant was that if you have the driving distance and you are also on your “A” game that there is a good chance of being able to do that. Ironically, Bryson has yet to bring that here since, only shooting his mythical “par” once since.
Despite a recent run of 4 Top 10 finishes on LIV, data suggests much of that has come from his driving distance alone. That might work on other courses but, despite driving distance being a prerequisite here, you need to show a bit more at Augusta National. Namely, on approach with your irons. Bryson has gained only +0.14 SG: APP per round this season.
Unlikely to contend.
Average Betting Odds: $36.00
Draftkings Pricing: $9.200
Best Masters Finish: 2nd (2021)
Masters Record: 2-6
Masters Average Score: 70.50
Riviera Record: MC-15-26-4-2
Plantation Record: 11
Holding an impeccable record at Augusta National, Zalatoris nearly won here when 2nd on debut and followed that up with a 6th place finish in 2022.
The form extends to other majors. He has a 2nd and 6th at The US Open and 2nd and 8th at the PGA Championship. It leads to an outstanding record to say the least.
I’ll reiterate: Will Zalatoris has finished 8th or better in 6/8 majors he has played to completion (given WD from Open Championship in 2021 with injury). Including 3 runner-up finishes. Talk about knocking on the door. He is basically smashing it down with a battering ram.
Having missed the 2023 Masters with a back injury which saw him out of the game for 9 months, Zalatoris is clearly back to full health. We really started to see murmurs of that return at The American Express, before 13th at major venue Torrey Pines followed by a runner-up at the heavily correlated Riviera (where he was also 4th in 2023).
The current price on Zalatoris is really a factor of two things. One, being some lingering concerns in markets of the injury. Second, a missed cut at The Players Championship and 74th at the Houston Open. Before those results, he had narrowed as low as 16s before drifting back out again sharply. However, he lost all his strokes putting and the ball-striking remained stout. He has gained a significant number of strokes putting at both Augusta National starts.
Played a practice round with Tiger Woods and undoubtedly would’ve gained some valuable knowledge from that time with the GOAT.
Could knock this one off on his third attempt.
Average Betting Odds: $36.00
Draftkings Pricing: $8,700
Best Masters Finish: 4th (2020)
Masters Record: 39-22-17-12-4-21-8-MC
Masters Average Score: 71.70
Riviera Record: 41-54-39-9-2-MC-MC-6-20-MC
Plantation Record: 21-W-22-3-W-3-5-25
It was a difficult 2023 for JT, where he missed the FedEx Cup playoffs and required a Captain’s Pick in order to make the Ryder Cup team.
Looked to find a bit of form in the fall season events and start of 2024. However, now arrives after a four tournament stretch of MC-12-MC-64. Of some promise is that his trademark ball-striking has started to return, gaining on SG: APP at every tournament bar one since September 2023.
A two-time winner at The Sentry, Justin Thomas also holds a runner-up finish at Riviera previously. A windy and wild forecast for the first two days could prove helpful. He won the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills in very windy conditions.
Capable of winning this at his best, but no signs he is near that currently.
Average Betting Odds: $41.00
Draftkings Pricing: $8,000
Best Masters Finish: 3rd (2022)
Masters Record: MC-39-MC-MC-25-21-3-16
Masters Average Score: 72.62
Riviera Record: WD-MC-14
Plantation Record: N/A
Dubai Desert Classic Record: MC-66-MC-MC-12-11-27-24-MC
Talented Irishman who easily won the 2019 Open Championship by 6 shots.
Outside that result, has not won on the PGA Tour since 2015 although has two victories at big events on the DP World Tour.
That 2015 win came at Firestone, a golf course that has produced its fair share of crossover to Augusta National outside the fact that Tiger Woods won there 8 times. Completing the double includes Matsuyama who won in 2017, Dustin Johnson in 2016, Adam Scott in 2011, and Vijay Singh in 2008. Masters Champions Zach Johnson, Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia, and Phil Mickelson all finished runner-up there.
He has been in excellent form since September last year. Included in that was a 4th place at the Cognizant Classic, with PGA National having its own correlation to major champions. Lowry has finished 5th and 2nd there in 2023 and 2022. Additionally, he was 3rd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with Bay Hill another stern test.
Lowry has found much success at Augusta National lately, finishing in the top 25 for 4 consecutive years. Taht included when selected in these pages at 50/1 when finishing 3rd. Has finished 28th or better in 13 of his 19 most recent major starts, including 7 finishes of 12th or better.
You would have to think the weather is a massive positive for Lowry. Any wind and rain will toughen conditions and surely remind Lowry of the green pastures of Ireland. The tougher the better for him.
Big chance to win a 2nd major this week.
Average Betting Odds: $41.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,500
Best Masters Finish: 14th (2022)
Masters Record: MC-17-36-19-46-14-33
Masters Average Score: 72.23
Riviera Record: 37-28-20-10
Plantation Record: 47
Dubai Desert Classic Record: 57-10-MC-47-50-MC-6-16-11-17-12-59-14
Likeable Englishman, although often coming across as quite… mellow.
Fleetwood started off the year well, snatching victory from Rory McIlroy at the Dubai Invitational before a 14th a week later at the more correlated Dubai Desert Classic. 10th at Riviera Country Club was also his best finish in the Genesis yet.
However, he has never really shown very much at The Masters. From his 7 visits here, he has only shot two rounds in the 60s. Still yet to achieve his first PGA Tour victory, although that has not often come from fading in the heat of battle more from not putting himself in contention enough.
Have always thought he is capable of winning a major, but far more likely at The Open Championship.
Average Betting Odds: $41.00
Draftkings Pricing: $8,800
Best Masters Finish: 1st (2020)
Masters Record: 30-38-38-13-MC-6-4-10-2-W-MC-12-48
Masters Average Score: 71.52
Riviera Record: 59-10-3-MC-2-2-4-W-16-9-10-8-MC
Plantation Record: 11-16-9-W-6-10-6-W-4-7-11
2020 Masters champion, DJ had been threatening a victory for some time. However, he did benefit from a delay in the tournament during COVID to November which suited his game perfectly. Subsequently, he romped to a 5 strokes victory.
Having won both at Riviera in 2017 and Plantation Course in 2013 and 2018 again links those two key courses to Augusta National. Won LIV Las Vegas, before three middle-of-the-pack finishes and no better than 21st in the last two months. Given a lowly ranking of just 336th in OWGR, he has the added motivation (or pressure, depending on your perspective) to perform well here and make the most of this start.
Has the credentials to compete here, but may be coming in a little underdone.
Average Betting Odds: $41.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,700
Best Masters Finish: 9th (2023)
Masters Record: 9
Masters Average Score: 70.75
Riviera Record: 49-48-6-37
Plantation Record: 33-2
As debuts at The Masters go, they don’t come much better than for Sahith Theegala. Finishing 9th in his first appearance, he shot a final round 67.
Correlated form could be found with a 6th at Riviera. We selected him as our best value selection at The Sentry to start 2024, given The Masters and Genesis form. He duly cashed both as our 60/1 FRL selection and finished 2nd for a full place at 80/1 in win markets. We snagged him at that same number for The Masters 2024 in a future bet. You’ll now only find him at half that price.
What impresses me with Theegala is he has now transformed from a player with known huge upside. Perhaps best demonstrated by his Fortinet Championship win in September, but also reiterated in the boom-or-bust potential of his top 5 finishes mixed with missed cuts.
Instead, we now have a golfer who has began to show a significant amount of consistency in his game. 6 consecutive finishes of 37th or better demonstrate his increased ability for course management. Included in that stretch was a 9th place at The Players Championship, a course that on paper should not suit him given his inaccurate driving on a TPC Sawgrass course which has trouble at every turn.
Has to rate a chance.
Average Betting Odds: $41.00
Draftkings Pricing: $8,400
Best Masters Finish: 5th (2022)
Masters Record: 44-18-5-10
Masters Average Score: 71.44
Riviera Record: 26-43-2-6-19
Plantation Record: 7-7-5-2-5
Having long been regarded a home for those who draw the golf ball, I’ve always struggled with where Morikawa would potentially fit into that picture when he is here at his best. The ability to hit a strong draw has littered previous Masters leaderboards, as has the success of left-handed golfers here.
I had a similar conversation with Ben Coley, a fellow golf analyst I respect immensely. With the increased distance and advances in the golf ball, many of the lines at Augusta National may now become a bit blurred and move way from that narrative.
Has a deep connection to The Sentry, a runner-up at Riviera, and The Masters form has continued to improve. Unfortunately, Morikawa looks to be well and truly stuck currently. He has finished no better than 14th since that 5th at The Sentry and has lost on approach in three straight tournaments. Since 1 January 2024, he has shown negative regression in nearly every approach metric you look at.
Could win here when his approach is firing. Which it isn’t.
Average Betting Odds: $41.00
Draftkings Pricing: $8,900
Best Masters Finish: 2nd (2020)
Masters Record: 55-5-51-2-10-3-34
Masters Average Score: 71.61
Riviera Record: 63-28-6-49-MC-4-33
Plantation Record: 17-24-W
Masters record speaks for itself for the 2022 Open Champion. Withdrew at LIV Miami following a dose of food poisoning, although all reports indicate he is feeling much better now.
Prior to that, lost in a play-off at LIV Hong Kong. He won The Sentry with a PGA Tour record -34 in 2022 to beat Jon Rahm by one. Holds a 4th at Riviera as well. 4 top 10s, 3 of which were Top 5s, in his 7 Masters starts.
Has to be respected.
Average Betting Odds: $46.00
Draftkings Pricing: $8,500
Best Masters Finish: 7th (2023)
Masters Record: MC-7
Masters Average Score: 72.67
Riviera Record: 2-20-16
Plantation Record: 13-33
On paper, a great course fit for Cam Young. His excellent ball-striking metrics and long driving distance makes an intrguing prospect for Young.
The issues comes that I struggle to see him getting his victory on the PGA Tour at The Masters 2024.
Threw away the aforementioned 2022 PGA Championship, although notable he was right there with JT in windy conditions. Was in contention when chasing McIlroy at the Dubai Desert Classic. Any time he sniffed the lead in the final round, he managed to find a way to lose.
Holds an excellent record at Riviera and 7th at his second Masters start also worthy of attention.
Wouldn’t be surprised if he were in contention, would be surprised if he got the job done.
Average Betting Odds: $56.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,800
Best Masters Finish: 12th (2021)
Masters Record: MC-44-12-MC-MC
Masters Average Score: 73.29
Riviera Record: 51-3-MC-72-MC-51-47-43-MC-44
Plantation Record: 17-3-16-5
Augusta National isn’t necessarily the best course fit for Harman. His record here demonstrates as such, having made just two cuts and only holding one finish of any note.
Conversely, he is easily playing the best golf of his career currently. Had a chance to win The Players when selected on these pages at 80/1, with putts to force a playoff with Scottie Scheffler. Also finished 5th at The Sentry, where he was also 3rd in 2018.
Won The Open Championship by a landslide in windy and wet British conditions. That came with an epic display of short-game prowess, gaining +11.92 SG: PUTT. You have to think he would need a similar putting display to overcome the obvious short-comings at this venue.
Playing great golf, just likely on the wrong course.
Average Betting Odds: $56.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,200
Best Masters Finish: 4th (2023)
Masters Record: MC-31-21-11-15-30-4
Masters Average Score: 72.12
Riviera Record: MC-MC-61-44-17-38-33-MC-24
Plantation Record: 27-3-17-30-52
Consistently disrespected in betting markets and DFS pricing, Data Golf rank Henley as the 9th best golfer in the world currently. And before you LIV-bros come at me, remember that Data Golf uses strokes gained data including LIV players. You’re welcome.
The issue for me, like others in this article, is that he doesn’t win anywhere near as much as he should. I’ve started to develop a nagging feeling that Henley can stumble in victory, as statistically he should have won by now in this run. That includes when we tipped him at the Sony Open, where he looked the likely winner until playing his final 5 holes at +1. A birdie at the par 5 last would’ve been sufficient to make the play-off.
4th place in 2023 Masters was impressive, although the manner is concerning for me to his chances in 2024. He achieved that result solely with the putter and SG: ATG, never a sustainable way to build a result that provides little confidence. The poor record at Riviera is also a red flag here.
Avoid the chalk in DFS and spend your money elsewhere.
Average Betting Odds: $56.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,600
Best Masters Finish: 18th (2021)
Masters Record: MC-44-56-MC-18-52-34
Masters Average Score: 73.88
Riviera Record: MC-40
Plantation Record: 14
Dubai Desert Classic Record: MC-55-8-3-38-22-4-38-31
Any time Hatton says he hates something, you have to take it with a grain of salt. Because Hatton as a general aura of hating everything and anyone at times.
However, he may be genuine in his hatred for Augusta National. A record where he has never finished better than 18th is not what you would expect for a golfer of his standard. Likewise, gave Riviera one go before being somewhat persuaded to play in 2023 as a signature event. His record at the Dubai Desert Classic is also poor for a golfer often stepping back to DP World Tour level.
Easy fade.
Average Betting Odds: $61.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,700
Best Masters Finish:
Masters Record: 2-WD-3-20-28-10-22-20-5-MC-MC-39
Masters Average Score: 71.85
Riviera Record: MC-MC-62-64-MC-9-9
Plantation Record: 9-3-10-12-13-10
Former world number 1 golfer, who showed a return to form in 2023 leading to a well-deserved return to the winners circle at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Followed that with a 2nd place finish in a wet and windy Open Championship, his best major finish since 2016.
Although finished 2nd on his Masters debut in 2011, he never held the lead on the final day and benefitted from the collapse of Rory McIlroy. Finished 9th in the last two editions of the Genesis Invitational, which is doubly impressive given the elevation to a signature event seeing the best players in those editions.
Has gone off the boil a little since, going 36th at the Arnold Palmer, 35th at The Players, and missing the cut at the Houston Open.
Could be sneaky.
Average Betting Odds: $56.00
Draftkings Pricing: $8,100
Best Masters Finish: 29th (2023)
Masters Record: MC-29
Masters Average Score: 73.00
Riviera Record: MC-23-3-MC-MC-10
Plantation Record: 19-32-33
Was absolutely on fire in February, racking up 4 top 10s in strong field including a 10th at Riviera.
Multiple time winner at the Valspar Championship is not the worst comp course. Spieth won there in 2015 prior his Masters victory and Paul Casey went back-to-back there in 2018-19 holding 5 Masters Top 10s and a Dubai Desert Classic win.
Much like the next name, contending in the majors is the next step for Burns but he is yet to show much. Has only finished a best of 20th in 14 attempts.
Prefer to see him in the heat of battle for a major title before recommending.
Average Betting Odds: $56.00
Draftkings Pricing: $8,300
Best Masters Finish: 43rd (2023)
Masters Record: MC-MC-48-43
Masters Average Score: 74.08
Riviera Record: MC-MC-37-5-W-10-2
Plantation Record: 25-15-3-14
On initial glance, it may be surprising to see Homa so far down the betting market. Until you remember his major form.
Managed his first 10 at a major at The Open Championship, which has always shaped as his most likely major. Outside that and a 13th at the 2022 PGA Championship, he has finished 43rd or worse in 15/17 majors including 9 missed cuts.
Homa is a real student of the game. He absolutely loves the history and legacy of golf, which may well be a hinderance at the major championships. It is almost if these events actually mean too much to him.
Offering the smallest glimmer of hope is the weather. His 13th came in the windy Southern Hills tournament, and his top 10 at the Open was also in torrid weather. His wins at the Wells Fargo and Fortinet also came in foul weather, and he holds an excellent record at Riviera.
Would be a surprise winner. But he will probably still have a great time in the merch tent.
Average Betting Odds: $67.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,100
Best Masters Finish: 12th (2021)
Masters Record: MC-24-21-34-12-39-29
Masters Average Score: 72.38
Riviera Record: MC-MC-MC-3-37-MC-73-MC-44
Plantation Record: 30-10-23-25
Si Woo will always pop in my models given his consistent excellence on approach. Unfortunately, I just struggle to ever see this being a reasonable course for him.
Far too short off the tee, Si Woo possesses a hot and cold putter that could prove his demise at this event.
Often found missing the cut or down the pack at both The Sentry and Riviera, he lacks the power to ever be considered a viable option in betting or DFS here. Even easier to avoid given his projected ownership being very high in the latter.
Might sneak a Top 30, struggle to see anything more for him.
Average Betting Odds: $67.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,500
Best Masters Finish: 6th (2022)
Masters Record: MC-46-10-8-6-MC
Masters Average Score: 71.85
Riviera Record: MC-MC-MC-61-24
Plantation Record: 19-18-33
Went on a run of three consecutive top 10 finishes starting in 2020. It is easy to see why.
The perennially classy ball-striker is one of the best in the game with his irons and enters the event as the 3rd best for SG: APP over the past 6 months in this field. He is particularly strong on approach from 150-200 yards, a range that sees a disproportionate number of approach shots at Augusta National.
Has finished with Top 25s in 4/5 of his recent starts, including a 13th at The Players and 18th at the Arnold Palmer.
Value.
Average Betting Odds: $67.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,400
Best Masters Finish: 1st (2018)
Masters Record: MC-22-49-MC-W-36-10-8-35-4
Masters Average Score: 71.89
Riviera Record: MC-59-51-MC
Plantation Record: 16-W-2-6-25-2-21-15
Dubai Desert Classic Record: 2
Impossible golfer to root for. However, you have to acknowledge The Masters record.
4 Top 10s in his last 6 Masters starts included a win in 2018. Finished 2nd in a battle with Rory McIlroy at the Dubai Desert Classic, his only appearance there, following controversial incidents on the Emirates Golf Club driving range.
The 4th recently in Macau should be tempered by the fact it was a very weak field and he performed only as expected at best. The 9th at LIV Miami when last seen was more impressive, with Doral holding some links to Augusta National.
Possible villain on Sunday. Would hate to see it and dread how his victory interview would go.
Average Betting Odds: $81.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,100
Best Masters Finish:
Masters Record: MC-33-27-27-25-MC-18-2-8-W-14-38-42-9-32-18-34-54-48-39
Masters Average Score: 72.56
Riviera Record: W-2-69-14-MC-17-10-2-11-53-7-W-38-4-65-19
Plantation Record: 7-5-2-18-21-6-21-29
Dubai Desert Classic Record: 9-7
From one of the most classless golfers in the professional game to arguably one of the classiest.
Scott is a previous Masters champion, but also boasts extensive correlated form. He won at Riviera on debut, adding another victory there in 2020, along with two additional runner-up finishes. He has also finished runner-up at The Sentry and accumulated two Top 10s in both Dubai Desert Classic starts.
The likeable Aussie was also in superb form either side of the New Year. That included a run of 7 consecutive top 20 finishes all around the globe. Finished 14th last week at the Texas Open. Ranking 2nd in this field for SG: PUTT over the last 6 months could prove useful if the winds get as bad as forecast.
Don’t be surprised if he finishes Top 10.
Average Betting Odds: $81.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,200
Best Masters Finish: N/A
Masters Record: N/A
Masters Average Score: N/A
Riviera Record: N/A
Plantation Record: 14
Earned his way into the field with his Texas Open victory last week.
Ended up in an epic tussle with Denny McCarthy, having looked like he would run away with the tournament holding a 6 shot lead at one point. Keeping his nerve when surprisingly finding himself in a play-off was impressive. For context, Bhatia and McCarthy ended up 9 strokes clear of Rory McIlroy in 3rd place.
Have to think that he would benefit for a go or two around this place, although on paper this does look to be a good fit for the talented 22-year-old. Left-handed golfers also hold a good record at The Masters with Mike Weir, Bubba Watson, and Phil Mickelson all victorious here.
Some interest in “Best Lefty” markets at $3.00.
Average Betting Odds: $81.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,300
Best Masters Finish: 14th (2022)
Masters Record: 14-MC
Masters Average Score: 73.33
Riviera Record: MC
Plantation Record: N/A
Dubai Desert Classic Record: MC-13
Talented young Australian who is looking to replicate his sister’s achievements, with Min Jee Lee already a two time major champion.
Min Woo Lee can struggle with his approach and ranks just 67th over the last 6 months in this field of 89. He has lost on approach in both his Masters starts, only finishing 14th on debut thanks to sitting 3rd in the field for SG: Putt that week. Also, Min Woo is in some pretty average form. Outside a 2nd at the Cognizant Classic, he has finished no better than 43rd in 6/7 tournaments since January.
Suspect he will be a chance at the US Open, where he has already finished 27th and 5th in two starts.
Avoid here for now.
Average Betting Odds: $91.00
Draftkings Pricing: $6,800
Best Masters Finish: W (2017)
Masters Record: 4-MC-46-MC-MC-38-45-35-12-8-MC-17-34-W-MC-MC-MC-23-MC
Masters Average Score: 72.97
Riviera Record: 20-6-46-4-13-4-MC-49-37-37-MC-39
Plantation Record: 10-7-11
Dubai Desert Classic Record: 20-17-MC-W-32-3-23-6-12
Became the second golfer after Danny Willett to win both the Dubai Desert Classic and The Masters in the same year.
In doing so, he got the monkey of his back as one of the best players to never win a major to that point. Named his daughter Azalea a year later after the famous flowers dotting Augusta National.
Price nose-dived from 150/1 to 90/1 following his 2nd place finish at LIV Miami last week. Has done little here since his Masters win, but could be in the top 20 if his recent result actually means anything.
Hard to argue he presents value, but playable in DFS if you find yourself down there.
Average Betting Odds: $101.00
Draftkings Pricing: $6,200
Best Masters Finish: N/A
Masters Record: N/A
Masters Average Score: N/A
Riviera Record: MC-37-MC-14-39
Plantation Record: 43
Silly price on Draftkings, given they released pricing early before his charge at the Texas Open last week. But, bear in mind he will also be very high ownership as a result.
Likely lacks the driving distance and ball-striking consistency to really say Augusta National suits him. However, he would be far from the first excellent putter to find a way around the course. Especially, after an emotional loss last week he might need another week to recover from still not being a PGA Tour winner in his 7th season.
Would be happy with a top 30 on debut here.
Average Betting Odds: $101.00
Draftkings Pricing: $6,700
Best Masters Finish: 33rd (2017)
Masters Record: MC-MC-33-MC
Masters Average Score: 74.40
Riviera Record: 55-16
Plantation Record: 4
Dubai Desert Classic Record: 13-4-6-12
Having started his career on the DP World Tour, made his way across to the PGA Tour before struggling with the step up in class. Was demoted to the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022, before earning his Tour card again and playing some of his best golf yet.
Held an excellent record at Emirates Golf Club prior to his move to the USA, as well as a 4th earlier this year at The Sentry, and a 16th at only his 2nd try around Riviera in an elevated event. This will mark his first return to The Masters 2024 field since 2020. So, although he has never shown much of anything at Augusta National, you could argue he is playing much better than he ever was during those starts.
Likely goes more under-owned than he should in DFS given a poor Masters record on paper.
Average Betting Odds: $101.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,600
Best Masters Finish: 2nd (2020)
Masters Record: 2-MC-8-16
Masters Average Score: 71.64
Riviera Record: MC-MC-33-56-44
Plantation Record: 5-8-13-5
Have to say that Sungjae’s record at The Masters is impressive, although his 2024 leaves much to be desired.
Sungjae finished runner-up on debut at just 22 years old, never slipping outside the top 5 all week. He has since added an 8th and 16th place finish at Augusta National, as well as being the 2022 first-round leader.
Had looked to have found some form at the end of 2023, carrying that into the start of the 2024 year with a 5th place finish at The Sentry making him a tempting Masters prospect. However, since then he has really fallen off the boil.
Most concerning is he has lost his irons completely. Typically, this is the strongest aspect of Sungjae’s game. He ranks a lowly 61st in this field for SG: APP over the last 6 months. Combined with his high DFS price, he is likely to go very low owned. If you wanted to take a risk, he might be worth popping into a few line-ups in large GPPs if relying solely on his form at The Masters.
Will likely be on my Masters betting card if he arrives back here with a smidge of form in future.
At the moment, he has none.
Average Betting Odds: $111.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,300
Best Masters Finish: 2nd (2018)
Masters Record: 38-27-38-5-12-MC-11-2-9-29
Masters Average Score: 71.47
Riviera Record: MC-35-62-MC-20-55-20-35
Plantation Record: 6-5-4-5-56
Unfortunately, I’m increasingly convinced that the story of Rickie Fowler’s career will be one of what could have been.
A marketers dream with his baby-faced looks and obvious talent, Fowler has compiled 12 Top 10 finishes in majors over his career. Entered some particularly dark years between 2020 to 2023. Having achieved his first win in 4 and a half years in July 2023, many would have hoped to see that spur him on to even better things.
Unfortunately, the opposite has occurred. Fowler looks like he is firmly back in the doldrums. Since the start of the year, he has played 9 times, missed 3 cuts, and finished no better than 35th. He has not played in The Masters since the November 2020 event and may well struggle on his return.
Easy fade.
Average Betting Odds: $126.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,000
Best Masters Finish: 21st (2021)
Masters Record: MC-42-21-43
Masters Average Score: 73.64
Riviera Record: 51-10-30-39-MC-MC-MC-12-7
Plantation Record: 11-W-30-14
Although his Masters record may look average at first glance, this should also be interpreted that he was in pretty poor form at each of those starts. In 2023, he arrived after a missed cut and winning just 1/3 matches in the WGC Matchplay. He had incoming form of 32-MC-MC-66-26-42 when arriving here in 2021. Likewise, in 2016 he had two missed cuts and a 57th as his lead-in. 2014 he actually had his best incoming form, although a missed cut can be forgiven for a debut at Augusta National.
So, all considered, 3 made cuts in that context is perhaps better than it appears. English has finished 12th at Riviera in 2023, followed by 7th there two months ago. He was a winner at The Sentry in 2021.
Most promising is his recent form is much better. He accumulated finishes of 17th at the WM Phoenix Open, 7th at the Genesis Invitational, 21st at the Arnold Palmer, and 19th at The Players Championship. A missed cut last week came after playing the final 4 holes in +5, although I hardly think arriving earlier at Augusta National is necessarily a negative for him.
English has also already shown upside in majors. Particularly, this is true at the US Open where he has 3 finishes of 3rd, 4th, and 8th since 2020.
Ranks inside the top 15 for both SG: ATG and SG: PUTT in this field over the last 3 months is an undoubted asset. Given the forecast, missing greens will be inevitability for at least the first two days of play.
Darkhorse.
Average Betting Odds: $126.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,400
Best Masters Finish: 16th (2023)
Masters Record: 16
Masters Average Score: 71.50
Riviera Record: 45-24
Plantation Record: 5-45
Given his emergence on the professional golf scene, it is easy to forget that Tom Kim is still just 21 years old.
Impressed on debut when finishing 16th, especially given coming in with indifferent form. He had 4 made cuts, but no finish better than a 34th and won just 1/3 in the WGC Matchplay.
Unfortunately, he has started 2024 in poor form. He has recorded just one top 20 in 8 starts, including a lowly 45th out of 59 at The Sentry and finishing 24th at Riviera. Have to suspect Augusta National will be a tricky course for him until he adds some more driving distance. Maybe after he has done some more speed training with Matt Fitzpatrick.
Prefer others.
Average Betting Odds: $126.00
Draftkings Pricing: $7,200
Best Masters Finish:
Masters Record: 22-5-36-20-11-8-25-14-2-10-2-12-MC-23-7-MC-16
Masters Average Score: 71.79
Riviera Record: 59-58-39-62-MC-37-9-13-45-16-4-56-MC
Plantation Record: 12-40
Dubai Desert Classic Record: 35
Has accumulated an impressive record at Augusta National over the years, missing the cut just twice in 17 attempts.
After a rather excellent 2023, has shown little to start 2024 in the lead up to The Masters. Outside of an 11th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (where he was defending champion), he has finished no better than 40th in his other 6 starts. The 40th came at The Sentry, meaning he still placed in the bottom third of that field.
Would need to show a remarkable turn in form to feature this week.
Large GPP option only.
Average Betting Odds: $126.00
Draftkings Pricing: $6,800
Best Masters Finish: 1st (1997, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2019)
Masters Record: 41-MC-1-8-18-5-1-1-15-22-1-3-2-2-6-4-4-40-4-17-32-1-38-47-WD
Masters Average Score: 71.19
Riviera Record: MC-MC-20-2-18-13-5-7-13-WD-MC-15-68-45-WD
Plantation Record: 5-1-8-10-4-3
Dubai Desert Classic Record: 2-5-1-3-1-20-41-WD
Rounding out our player profiles with Tiger is only apt. To put in perspective how good he was in his era, the first name on this list was Scottie Scheffler. He would need to remain ranked as the best in the world for the next 604 weeks to match how long Tiger Woods was World Number 1. That would be until 8th November 2035.
The fact his betting odds moved from 150/1 to 125/1 from some pretty inane comments from Will Zalatoris speaks to the fact so many would love to see Tiger competitive here again.
Sadly, his body is broken. He has played just a round and a half of competitive golf in 2024. That came at the Genesis Invitational before withdrawing midway through the 2nd round.
The main issue is the leg injury from his car crash. And, Augusta National is not an easy walk. It features some of the largest undulations and elevation changes of any venue on the PGA Tour.
Should he make the cut, he would hold the outright record for the most consecutive cuts made at The Masters. It is a feat he currently shares with Gary Player and Fred Couples.
Maybe that is the equivalent of a return to glory in the current situation for Tiger.
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