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MLBDaily Fantasy Sports

9/5 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Sporting Sox and Dinger Locks

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

On our Thursday 9/5 DFS 7:05 main slate, there are seven ballgames – with one that stands out as a good single-game stack with a couple one-offs (a hot-hitting Cub and some RHBs on the lefty-mashing Houston buzzsaw). Are we ready to, once again, embrace the variance and win some green? You bet we are – and there’s enough pitching value to fade the top arms and build a lineup with serious studs.

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9/5 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Boston Red Sox vs. Martin Perez

Most of this stack’s full-bodied components will be discussed hitterby hitter in greater detail below, but this is my top stack of the slate and I’llhave plenty of exposure to this game in general. The usual suspects apply. TheRed Sox are slashing a robust .285/.355/.506 at home this season and there’s nobodyI’d be careful to avoid.

Minnesota Twins at Nathan Eovaldi

The Twins have a little tougher matchup as they are underdogs inFenway Park, but they’d slashed .319/.384/.584 as a team over the past 7 daysheading into last night’s tough matchup vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (which resultedin a 6-2 loss). Look for the Twins to rebound in a big way against a hittable Eovaldi(6.23 ERA, 5.62 FIP). I like the outfielders (though Max Kepler was removedfrom last night’s game with upper chest soreness) and the slugging infielders (JorgePolanco, Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron, Luis Arraez).

Houston Astros vs. Marco Gonzales

Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuri Gurriel make up the core of this stack, with Michael Brantley and/or Yordan Alvarez rounding it out on FD/DK. But if you’ve only got room for hitters like Aledmys Diaz, Abraham Toro and cheap catching option Robinson Chirinos, there’s still plenty of reason to get excited. The Astros has demolished LHPs this season to the tune of a 133 wRC+ and have great number sat home (.217 team ISO with just an 18.8% K rate – the second lowest in the league).

9/5 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider 

Chicago Cubs at Chase Anderson (Reverse splits pitcher and an implied total near 5 runs)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kolby Allard (high-risk/value/contrarian)

Tampa Rays vs. Trent Thornton (high-risk/value/contrarian)

9/5 DFS Hitting Catcher  

Jason Castro, MIN at BOS UPDATE: Castro is not in the starting lineup

PIVOT: Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. SEA

DK ($3,400)   FD ($3,000)

With Castro starting this game out on the bench, I’m pivoting to Chirinos. He’s about the same price and offers similar upside in this matchup. Chirinos sports a .444 xwOBA in 174 ABs (217 plate appearances) vs. LHPs over the past couple of seasons.

9/5 DFS Hitting First Baseman 

Yuri Gurriel, HOU vs. SEA

DK ($4,300)   FD ($3,600) 

Gurriel has cooled off a little bit since his insane July (.408/.437/.847 in 24 games), but not much, as he posted a .344/.423/.677 slash in August. He’s actually a little better against RHPs but maintains a .237 ISO vs. lefties, so he’s maybe a tad contrarian if you’re mini-stacking stacking Astros along with Boston bats. The .298 home ISO and 148 home wRC+ make him an attractive option.

9/5 DFS Hitting Second Baseman 

Jose Altuve, HOU vs. SEA

DK ($4,500)   FD ($4,300) 

Altuve (.302/.369/.599 with 14 HR at home this season) isunderpriced on DK and the Astros have the second highest implied total (about 6runs) on the evening slate. The diminutive slugger has been in a bit of a funk withno XBH on the five-game road trip, but a return to friendlier confines could bejust what he needs. It’s hard to find better implied value at this position, sowhy look past the five-and-a-half footer if we’re putting our best foot forward?

9/5 DFS Hitting Third Baseman 

Rafael Devers, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,300)   FD($4,100) 

Lefty on lefty for Devers hasn’t bothered me since he took AroldisChapman deep as a youngster for the Sox, and he’ll be an overlooked part of theBoston stack and low-owned because of it. He’s completely avoidable if you’renot stacking this team, but I love going with Devers at 3B because he’s alwaysin the thick of this offense and his production this season (.320/.369/.579 slashwith 29 HR and 107 RBI) shows it.

9/5 DFS Hitting Shortstop 

Xander Bogaerts, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,300)   FD ($4,100) 

We’ve had success recently with Bogaerts, and this is agreat matchup for the power-hitting SS to show off his .416 xwOBA against LHPs overthe past two seasons. Martin Perez isn’t a bad pitcher these days, but he has stillyielded a .184 ISO and .865 OPS since 2018. I’ve been doing well not overthinkingon Xander, so that’ll continue as I plug him into most of my lineups at SS. Thesomewhat underpriced Alex Bregman ($4,900 DK, $4,400 FD) is the obvious pivotat 3B and SS if you’re not anxious play both Devers and Bogaerts.

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9/5 DFS Hitting Outfielders 

Mookie Betts, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,000)   FD ($4,200) 

Bettshad a monster game last night and when Mookie gets hot, you continue to playhim. Boston’s leadoff hitter connected for a couple homers last night en routeto a 4-for-5, five RBI night. He’s still underpriced at $5K on DK and is a Benjamincheaper than J.D. Martinez on FD. Since the start of 2018, Betts is sporting anxwOBA of .430 against LHPs and even if Perez gets yanked early, a righthander faceseven more obscene Betts data (.468 xwOBA vs. RHPs and home xwOBA of .478).

Nicholas Castellanos, CHI at MIL

DK ($4,500)   FD ($3,500) 

Mr. Castellanos has taken the Windy City by storm, and he getsto travel to Milwaukee to hit in a controlled environment. The problem is thatthese walls cannot possibly contain him either, and he’s been a revelatory offensivepowerhouse since joining the Cubs in a deadline deal, slashing .346/.378/.709 witha ridiculous .362 ISO, .439 wOBA, 12 homers and 24 RBI in just 31 games. It’snot just Wrigley, either: the bell-ringer has split his dingers 6/6 betweenhome and road. Plus, he’s massively underpriced facing a reverse-splits righty (ChaseAnderson) on a small slate. It’ll be tough to leave him out in any format.

Sam Travis, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($3,300)   FD (1B $2,800) 

The Sox are my favorite team and Travis is much-welcomed valueto help you finish them off on FD with these four hitters I’ve listed, or even addin another bat on DK if you’re going that route. He hits lefties well (.382 xwOBA,.200 ISO and under a 20% strikeout rate over the past two seasons). He’s higherrisk and may attract some ownership, but at that low, low price I’ll make roomto differentiate elsewhere.

Additional options:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,200 DK, $3,100 FD), Travis d’Arnaud($4,000 DK, $2,700 FD)

1B: Josh Bell ($4,800 DK, $4,200 FD), Garrett Cooper (valueat $3,500 DK, $2,700 FD)

2B: Jonathan Schoop ($4,600 DK, $3,100 FD), Starlin Castro($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD)

3B: Abraham Toro ($2,600 DK, $3,200 FD, Miguel Sano ($5,100DK, $3,900 FD)

SS: Alex Bregman, Jonathan Villar ($4,700 DK, $3,400 FD)and possibly Javier Baez (thumb, DTD – $4,600 DK, $4,100)

OF: Twins galore (Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, JakeCave), Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander and Ryan Braun (.475 xwOBA vs. LHPs, 415ISO including five career HR vs. Jose Quintana)

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MLBDaily Fantasy Sports

8/28 DFS Hitting Picks and Prop Plays: Story Telling

Cora Baylis
written by Cora Baylis

Whenever we have games spread all throughout the day, I try my best to cater to every DFS player out there. What’s interesting here is that we only have three games during the day, so I’ll only offer up two plays from that slate. That should help DFS players who want to play both schedules and that’s our goal here at Win Daily Sports! So, let’s get into our 8/28 DFS Hitting picks!

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8/28 DFS Hitting Catcher  

Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. TB 

DK ($3,400)   FD ($2,900) 

Trying to pick a catcher is always the toughest part of this article but Chirinos is a nice value on this slate. The reason for that is because of his matchup, with the Astros facing Ryan Yarbrough. While the Tampa lefty has been brilliant this season, his 3.89 xFIP indicates that he has some negative regression headed his way. That’s huge for a guy like Chirinos, with the Astros backstop generating a .447 OBP and .982 OPS against southpaws so far this season.  

8/28 DFS Hitting First Baseman 

Matt Olson, OAK at KC 

DK ($4,700)   FD ($3,500) 

A power hitter like Olson becomes a great pick against a homer-prone pitcher like Jakob Junis. A 4.89 ERA and 1.40 WHIP from Junis is bad enough but his 58 dingers allowed since 2018 is one of the worst marks in baseball too. That’s got to light up Olson’s eyes, with the left-handed slugger posting a .511 SLG and .260 ISO since 2017. He’s been even better against right-handers in that span, tallying a .351 OBP, .543 SLG and .894 OPS against them. Olson is feeling it right now too, amassing a .382 OBP over his last 17 fixtures.  

8/28 DFS Hitting Second Baseman 

Gleyber Torres, NYY at SEA 

DK ($4,600)   FD ($4,400) 

Let’s kick off our day-slate recommendations with the hottest second baseman in the league. This dude has been absolutely ridiculous the last few weeks and it’s scary just how good this 22-year-old kid could be. Over his last 22 games, Torres has 13 homers en route to a .786 SLG and 1.126 OPS, with 10 of those dingers coming in his last 15 fixtures. Those fantastic numbers since the All-Star break have led to a breakout season with 33 dingers in total. Torres has a career .531 SLG and .869 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor too and we definitely have to consider him against a guy like Justus Sheffield.  

8/28 DFS Hitting Third Baseman 

Miguel Sano, MIN at CWS 

DK ($5,500)   FD ($3,900) 

Sano is a favorite of mine and I’m just thrilled to see him hitting so well. A .579 SLG, .923 OPS, .378 wOBA and .332 ISO is obviously all career-highs, as it really shows just how powerful this dude is. His .250 career ISO is still a rather impressive mark and it’s clear that things are finally clicking for the big man. The reason we like him today is because he gets the platoon advantage against a terrible lefty. The Twins face Ross Detwiler, who’s got an unsightly 6.29 ERA and 1.72 WHIP dating back to 2015. That’s why Minnesota is projected for more than six runs, with Sano accumulating a .394 wOBA, .341 ISO, .612 SLG and .966 OPS against left-handers this season.   

8/28 DFS Hitting Shortstop 

Trevor Story, COL vs. BOS 

DK ($5,300)   FD ($4,300) 

While this isn’t a great matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez, Story is always in play at home against a lefty. Let’s start with his Coors Field numbers, with Story totaling a .326 AVG, .399 OBP, .683 SLG and 1.082 OPS at home this season. That’s pretty close to his numbers against lefties, with the shortstop posting a .383 OBP, .637 SLG and 1.020 OPS since the beginning of 2017. That means he’s hard t fade anytime he faces a lefty at home and Rodriguez surely has to be scared of Coors Field with the Rockies projected for more than six runs.  

8/28 DFS Hitting Outfielders 

J.D. Martinez, BOS at COL 

DK ($5,600)   FD ($4,700) 

How can this possibly go wrong? Arguably the best pure hitter in baseball hitting in Coors Field is a recipe for success, particularly someone as hot as Martinez. Over his last 48 games, J.D. is putting together a 349 .AVG .420 OBP, .646 SLG and 1.066 OPS. Those are actually not that far off of his season-long numbers and he should do some serious damage in a place like Coors Field. What we like here is that he gets to face Peter Lambert, who’s pitching to a 6.40 ERA and 1.61 WHIP this season.   

Aaron Judge, NYY at SEA 

DK ($4,500)   FD ($4,300) 

We foreshadowed this a bit with our final sentence in the Torres write-up, as we love the Yankees on this slate. Any time they face a weak left-hander, all of the powerful righties are in play. Judge is just that, as he and the Bronx Bombers will oppose Sheffield and his 6.43 ERA and 2.29 WHIP. That’s truly frightening against a stud like Judge, who actually leads the league in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Those elite advanced statistics have been really shining recently, with Judge hitting four doubles and five homers over his last 14 games. Not to mention, he also has a .478 OBP, .667 SLG and 1.144 OPS against southpaws so far this season and is priced way too low on DK.  

Franmil Reyes, CLE at DET 

DK ($4,000)   FD ($3,200) 

After a couple of stud outfielders, let’s give you a value play. Reyes is just that and it’s truly hard to understand why his price remains so low. We’re talking about a slugger with a .513 SLG and .271 ISO being priced around a bunch of minor leaguers. What makes it even more bizarre is that Reyes has four dingers over his last three games while knocking out six homers in total over his last 13 fixtures. That means the power stroke is strong right now, which is not a good thing for Jordan Zimmermann and his 6.48 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.  

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day 

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Aaron Civale Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Adam Plutko just struck out nine Tigers on Tuesday and I expect Civale to have a similar performance. The rookie is pitching to a 1.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP and gets to face a Detroit lineup who ranks last in runs scored, xwOBA and K rate.

MKF Record 30-22

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MLB

Stack Report for Main Slate: Winning Edge for July 6

Daniel Wehr
written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide stacks that I recommend for today’s 7 game main slate. I’ve also included my favorite one-offs and value plays.

Houston Astros Stack

vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (LAA): 5.70 Runs

This is a play you’re not going to be able to get away from tonight. Andrew Heaney carries a 5.40 ERA, 5.39 FIP, and 4.20 SIERA through 36.2 innings pitched. Through 27 innings pitched, right handed batters are slashing .319 wOBA, .449 SLG, and to a .304 OBP against Heaney. The Astros have been hitting very well recently, slashing .374 wOBA, .204 ISO, and a .516 SLG. Smaller slate tonight so ownership will be a lot more concentrated on the Astros but it is good chalk and I’m perfectly fine with eating it.

Preferred Stack: (in order of preference) Jose Altuve $3700 FD|$4200 DK, Alex Bregman $4300 FD|$5000 DK, Yordan Alvarez $4100 FD|$4800 DK, Yuli Gurriel $3400|$4400, and Robinson Chirinos $3100 FD|$3800 DK. George Springer ($4400 FD|$5400 DK) is my last choice for higher priced guys but if you’re playing multiple lines I would definitely have exposure.

New York Mets Stack

vs. RHP Jake Arrieta (PHI): 5.00 Runs

I’ve eagerly awaited a solid left handed power hitting team to go against Jake Arrieta since those string of rainouts in Washington a few weeks back. He carries 4.43 ERA, 5.15 FIP, and a 4.85 SIERA into tonight’s game. He is absolutely terrible to left handed batters. They are slashing .383 wOBA, .535 SLG, and to a .386 OBP through 43.0 innings pitched. He has surrendered 27 earned runs and 11 home runs over that same span. The Mets are hitting to a tune of .313 wOBA, .181 ISO, and 101 WRC+ over the last two weeks, slightly above their season averages. Be weary of the weather here tonight.

Preferred Stack:(in order of preference) Jeff McNeil $3600 FD|$4900 DK, Dominic Smith $2600 FD|$4900 DK, Pete Alonso $3600 FD|$4900 DK, Michael Conforto $3500 FD|$4400 DK, and Todd Frazier $3000 FD|$4100 DK.

Oakland Athletics Stack

vs. LHP Marco Gonzales (SEA): 5.15 Runs

Marco Gonzales carries a 4.39 ERA, 4.11 FIP, and 5.14 SIERA into tonight’s game. He has fairly identical splits with a .324 wOBA, .444 SLG, and .327 OBP through 78.1 innings pitched against right handed batters. Most should be focused on that Astros stack and probably spending down for some cheap Cardinals so we have a chance to catch the A’s at low ownership. I didn’t list them, but I know they let down a lot of people last night. The A’s are slashing to a .349 wOBA, .223 ISO, and .499 SLG vs. left handed pitching this season. The team as a whole has been in a bit of a hitting slump over the last two weeks, slashing to a .246 wOBA, .112 ISO, and .303 SLG in that time span. I always feel like Oakland is pretty risky, but I’ll go there in GPPs tonight.

Preferred Stack:(in order of preference) Matt Olson $3400 FD|$4700 DK, Marcus Semien $3700 FD|$4300 DK, Josh Phegley $2600 FD|$4700 DK. Matt Chapman $3800 FD|$4500 DK ,and Ramon Laureano $3000 FD|$4100 DK.

One-offs and Value Plays

Josh Phegley (OAK) $2600 FD| $3700 DK, Robinson Chirinos (HOU) $3100 FD| $3800 DK, Hunter Renfroe (SDP) $2700 FD, Jose Martinez (STL) $2700 FD|$3500 DK, Paul Goldschmidt (STL) $3000 FD|$3400 DK, and Brad Miller (PHI) $2000 FD|$3500 DK.

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MLB

DFS Hitting and MLB Prop Picks for 6/3: Stacking ‘Stros

Cora Baylis
written by Cora Baylis

I have to be honest, this is a disappointing slate. We have only four games on the schedule. Yes, FOUR GAMES! That might end up being the shortest slate that we cover all season long and it makes for a chalky day. The one bit of good news is that we have no weather to focus in on, with all four forecasts coming out clean. 

Catcher 

Robinson Chirinos, HOU at SEA 

DK ($3,800)   FD ($3,100) 

It’s a nightmare to pick a catcher on a normal slate but there are actually a few good options here. We’re going to go with the best value on the board, as Chirinos has quietly been one of the best catchers in the Majors. In fact, Chirinos is one of the league leaders with an .845 OPS, which isn’t far off of his .808 OPS since the beginning of 2016. What we like here is that he gets the platoon advantage against Wade LeBlanc, with Chirinos posting an .889 OPS against southpaws since the beginning of 2017. 

Also Consider: Willson Contreras is the highest-priced catcher on the slate but he’s probably the best option at the position. 

First Base 

Tyler White, HOU at SEA 

DK ($2,800)   FD ($2,500) 

White really hasn’t given us much reason to use him but he has too much talent to be this cheap. We’re talking about a guy who posted an .887 OPS in well over 200 plate appearances last season and that’s pretty close to the guy we saw in the minors. In fact, White had a wOBA north of .400 at Triple-A and an ISO above .210. While we haven’t seen that potential yet this season, it’s time for him to step up with Carlos Correa, George Springer and Jose Altuve all sidelined. We also love the fact that he faces Wade LeBlanc, as that gives White the platoon advantage against a guy who’s posting a 6.99 ERA and 1.66 WHIP so far this season. 

Also Consider: Rhys Hoskins is pricey but he has the platoon advantage against Eric Lauer.

Second Base  

Javier Baez, CHC vs. LAA 

DK ($4,800)   FD ($4,100) 

The second base selections on this slate are absolute garbage, so let’s go with a reliable Baez. Not only does Baez lead all second baseman in fantasy points per game on this particular slate, he also has one of the best matchups too. The Cubs square off against Trevor Cahill, who’s posting a 6.92 ERA and 1.37 WHIP so far this season. That’s why the Cubs have one of the highest projected team totals on the board and Baez should be a huge part of that with his .899 OPS. 

Also Consider: If Kike Hernandez returns to the leadoff spot against a left-hander, he’s definitely in play in the $3,000-range.  

Third Base 

Alex Bregman, HOU at SEA 

DK ($4,900)   FD ($4,400) 

As you can obviously tell, I love the Astros on this slate and Bregman is probably my favorite per-dollar play on the board. Any time a player with a .945 OPS and .557 SLG faces a guy with a .410 xwOBA, he’s tough to fade. That doesn’t even consider the fact that Bregman gets the platoon advantage in his favor, with the slugging third baseman posting a .950 OPS against southpaws since his call-up to the Majors. Not to mention, Bregman has 13 homers over his last 30 games.

Also Consider: Yuli Gurriel could be in the heart of the Astros order against a lefty with so many injured studs and that definitely makes him worth a shot with how cheap he is. 

Shortstop 

Jean Segura, PHI at SD 

DK ($4,500)   FD ($3,600) 

Let’s stray away from the Astros here and get a Philly bat into our build. While Philadelphia has to hit in a tough pitcher’s park like Petco, they do have a ton of potent righties to oppose Eric Lauer. Segura is definitely one of those guys, as he’s the third-highest scoring shortstop on this slate. The consistency from Segura is just incredible, with the righty shortstop posting an OPS north of .750 in four-straight seasons. That pairs with the fact that he averages over 25 steals per season year, which makes him one of the best dual threats in the game. We also love that he gets to face a lefty here, with Segura posting a 1.154 OPS against southpaws so far this season. 

Also Consider: Manny Machado has a tough matchup against Aaron Nola but remains a nice bargain south of $4,000 on both sites. 

Outfield 

Mike Trout, LAA at CHC 

DK ($5,700)   FD ($4,900) 

This play doesn’t take much explanation, as we get the best hitter in the game facing a left-hander. While Trout’s splits are pretty much even, it’s hard to argue with him facing John Lester. The Cubs lefty has allowed 16 runs and 30 baserunners over his last three starts and that spells disaster against a stud like Trout. The perennial MVP candidate is absolutely raking right now too, going 10-for-24 at the plate over his last seven games while providing seven runs scored, seven RBI, two doubles, three homers and nine walks in that span. 

Andrew McCutchen, PHI at SD 

DK ($5,400)   FD ($3,600) 

Let’s get another Phillies righty into our mix, as McCutchen has recaptured his MVP form. Over his last 16 games, Mccutchen is posting a .423 OBP while collecting six doubles, five homers, 17 runs scored and 14 RBI. It’s crystal clear that hitting atop the Phillies order has skyrocketed his fantasy value and he’s even tougher to fade against a lefty. For his career, Cutch is posting a .946 OPS against southpaws, which is more than 100 points higher than his OPS against righties. 

Kyle Schwarber, CHC vs. LAA 

DK ($4,100)   FD ($3,400) 

Like McCutchen, Schwarber has seen his value rise exponentially because he too was moved to the leadoff spot. Since May 15, Schwarber has six homers, 15 runs scored, 11 RBI and 11 walks. While his average is lacking in that span, those counting statistics has led to him becoming a dangerous fantasy option. Cahill’s ugly numbers from the Baez write-up only adds to Schwarber’s intrigue, with the slugging outfielder providing an .835 OPS and .343 OBP against right-handers throughout his career. 

Also Consider: If Mallex Smith leads off again, he’s worth a shot against Corbin Martin.  

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day 

Aaron Nola over 6.5 Strikeouts 

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With only four games on the schedule, we’re going with just one pick today. I’m actually 7-2 over my last nine recommendations and we’re hoping to continue that stellar form here. Our most successful picks have been strikeout-O/U’s, so we’re going back to the well here. Aaron Nola got off to a terrible start this season but recent results would indicate that his swing-and-miss stuff is back. In fact, Nola has 26 Ks over his last three starts, doing that damage in just 19.1 innings. He becomes particularly intriguing considering he faces a Padres team that ranks 26th in runs scored and 27th in K rate. Their most dangerous bats happen to be righties and that only adds to Nola’s K-upside. 

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