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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 12 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.Let’s get to the game!Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candi...

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Just like that and we are already in NFL Week 6. We have had a good run on tight ends and hope to continue providing value each week in my NFL DFS Tight Ends article. Tight ends are sometimes forgotten and left to the last pick in your lineup and that can easily leave you with an outcome of 0-2 points. This could be devastating for your chances of a takedown or simply cashing. Each week I will lay out my favorite options up top and the best value plays on the board as well. Once you’re done reading this article make sure to hop in our expert chat on Discord to stay up to date with lineup discussions.

Let’s dive in to this NFL Week 6 slate and talk some DFS Tight Ends!

MARK ANDREWS, BAL $5,200 DRAFTKINGS, $6,300 FANDUEL

Mark Andrews is coming off a monster Week 5 where the Ravens came from behind to takedown the Colts. Andrews had 11 receptions on 13 targets and rumbled for 147 yards receiving with 2 touchdowns. While I don’t expect that output this week, I do like the price tag and floor he provides in what should be another high scoring affair versus the Chargers at home. We have a total of 51.5 with Baltimore favored by 3, so this game should be high scoring and close through 4 quarters if Vegas has this game projected correctly. Lets also not forget what David Njoku just did to this Charger defense, when he caught 7 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown last week. We have two high scoring teams coming off big wins which should lead to a lot of offense. Take the discount off of Kelce in some spots if you can’t afford to pay up for him in Week 6.

DALTON SCHULTZ, DAL $4,900 DRAFTKINGS, $6,500 FANDUEL

Lets make it 3 weeks in a row locking in Dalton Schultz. I believe we are still early to market and the sooner you recognize a trend the better. Schultz continues to see a increase in his workload every week since Gallup went down with an injury. Coming off another 8 target game has me feeling safe that the opportunity will remain for Dalton going into Week 6. This will be a tougher matchup for the Cowboys than the past couple of weeks, but Dak and the Cowboys offense in general is too good to be slowed down. My only worry here is if the Patriots can score enough to keep this game close forcing the Cowboys to keep the gas on the pedal for four quarters. With his price tag increased on both sites I do prefer Andrews in cash, but for a low ownership play in tournaments I will take some shots at Schultz in NFL Week 6.

EVAN ENGRAM, NYG $3,400 DRAFTKINGS, $5,000 FANDUEL

As I told you last week I’m not a fan of Evan Engram. He hasn’t had the career everyone projected him to have but in DFS we just need value for one game. He hit value last week at this price tag and he should do the same in Week 6. I can almost guarantee that the Rams will blow this game open very early, which will mean 4 quarters of passing from the Giants who will be missing their 3 best receivers and Barkley. The Giants will have to rely on guys like Engram to move the ball. Daniel Jones is questionable at the time of me writing this article but it doesn’t change much for me if he plays or not. I think Engram is a solid cash game play at his price tag and for what he opens up in tournaments, I like the value he presents as well.

JARED COOK, LAC $3,200 DRAFTKINGS, $5,400 FANDUEL

This offense in LA might be one of the best in the league. With superstars at every position Cook is sometimes the forgotten man. His price tag dictates that, and has me wanting shares of him in tournaments. As I mentioned above, we have a total of 51.5 with Baltimore favored by 3 so this could lead to the Chargers playing from behind. This is not the same Ravens defense that Ray Lewis lead and there are injuries and holes that can be taken advantage of. Cook maybe the 3rd or even 4th option in this offense with the defense focused on Ekeler, Allen, and Williams. Which should leave Cook open often, and at close to minimum salary he can provide the upside and low ownership combination you need to leap frog the leaderboards in tournaments.

RICKY SEALS-JONES, WAS $3,000 DRAFTKINGS $5,000 FANDUEL

I went deep in the crates last week to put everyone on to Dan Arnold and we are going to dig even deeper with Ricky in Week 6. With Logan Thomas out and a juicy matchup versus the Chiefs, Seals-Jones could bring solid value to our DFS lineups. Ricky played 82 out of the 83 snaps and that kind of time on the field will present opportunities at minimum price on both sites. The Chiefs passing defense has allowed 296 yards passing per game and they are truly struggling to stop the ball. We are talking about one of the worst defenses in the league right now in a game which currently has a total of 55 points. The Chiefs should take a early lead here, which will have Washington playing from behind and forcing them to air it out to keep pace. Ricky is a tournament only play which could pay off nicely in Week 6.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week 6 DFS Tight Ends article and the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, covering cash games and tournaments, and we will have articles, videos, and podcasts so lock in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our YouTube page and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last minute news.

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The NFL DFS season begins with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 1 NFL DFS contests!

A Refresher on Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel calls them “Single-Game Contests,” but the gist is that we need to break down a single game and be aware of the narratives, opportunities and game theory techniques to help drive our success.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will give you leverage.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 1 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Tom Brady (FD $16,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Dak Prescott (FD $15,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #1: Mike Evans (FD $13,000, DK $13,800)

Contrarian #2: CeeDee Lamb (FD $10,000, DK $12,300)

Contrarian #3: Ronald Jones (FD $9,500, DK $7,500)

I’m leaning toward using the chalky Tom Brady as my MVP on FanDuel based on the lack of salary multiplier and his propensity to both spread it around and not really stop running up the score. I may find a different route on DraftKings.

Tampa Bay notes: Getting some combination of Brady, Evans and Jones is probably the safest way to approach this offense. If you’re going to play the Bucs DST, and that’s not a terrible strategy for a few GPPs then it’s probably important you use one or more Bucs RBs. Jones is technically the lead back, but Leonard Fournette is still an explosive player with sneaky value if Jones isn’t getting it done. Chris Godwin was nursing a hamstring injury, and he’s actually been left off the final injury report after being limited Tuesday, but I’m most interested in the matchup nightmare that Evans presents for the Cowboys. Aside from Brady, he has the biggest upside. If Godwin sits, we can consider Antonio Brown, who’s listed as questionable but has been trending up in recent weeks as someone finally gelling with the Bucs system and Brady.

Dallas notes: With the absence of OL Zack Martin due to COVID and the Buccaneers solid rush defense, I’m a little less interested in Ezekiel Elliott. I’ll prioritize Prescott/Lamb and either Michael Gallup (with Bucs safety Jordan Whitehead on the shelf for Week 1), but Amari Cooper remains in play for GPPs. Blake Jarwin offers some value at $5,200 on DK, but he’s more of a GPP play as well given how well the Bucs LBS defend that territory and the red zone, where he gets most of his looks.

Week 1 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Get cute with the sub $1K players in this one. Both offenses should be approaching full strength and unless we get breaking news close to lock, there’s not much in that range we can use.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use both kickers and defenses. There are some showdowns where using that strategy can help find the magic mix, but this Thursday night isn’t that night.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Dak Prescott
  3. Mike Evans
  4. CeeDee Lamb
  5. Ronald Jones
  6. Chris Godwin
  7. Michael Gallup
  8. Ezekiel Elliott
  9. Amari Cooper
  10.  Bucs DST
  11.  Antonio Brown
  12.  Leonard Fournette
  13.  Rob Gronkowski
  14.  Blake Jarwin
  15.  Giovani Bernard
  16.  Tony Pollard
  17.  O.J. Howard
  18.  Ryan Succop
  19.  Greg Zuerlein
  20.  Cowboys DST
  21.  Cameron Brate

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

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Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 4th of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2020 Record: 11-5

Head Coach: Bruce Arians

Offensive Coordinator: Byron Leftwich

Defensive Coordinator: Todd Bowles

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overview:

I am going to be honest, I do not enjoy having to parse through the Bucs offense in any way shape or form. The 2020 Super Bowl Champions just have a wealth of talent to choose from and Tom Brady is the single best QB of all time when it comes to finding the open target wherever it may be. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, Cameron Brate, Rob Gronkowski, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Giovani Bernard. Do you see why this is a nightmare from a fantasy perspective?

Defensively the Buccaneers have been a consistent top three against the run and pass for several years now with Todd Bowles at the helm and there is nothing to indicate that is going to change. Up front they have, Ndamukong Suh, Vea Vita, an Will Gholston, Jason Pierre Paul, Shaq Barrett, and Devin White at linebacker, and Jamel Dean, Antione Winfield, and Jordan Whitehead in the secondary. If you guys spot a gap in their defense please tell me, I could use the help.

Scheme

Offense: Tom Brady and 80 other guys

Defense: 3-4 Base, Multiple Fronts, Multiple Cover Zero and Cover One Blitz Packages

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fantasy Targets:

Mike Evans: ADP 41.25

In order to be better at drafting your fantasy teams it is key to recognize your biases and I have a clear bias against Evans. Every year I target him he has underperformed against his ADP and every year I stay clear he does not. This may be the first year that bias will not play a roll for me. I just happen to be telling folks to let the Bucs be someone elses headache. In 2020 he had 70 catches for 1,006 yards and 13 touchdowns, but over half of those yards (517 of them) and 31 of those 70 grabs came in only four games. That inconsistency will only be worse with Antonio Brown fully involved in the offense and Chris Godwin not dealing with a finger injury.

Chris Godwin: ADP 45.91

Godwin is one of the top two or three slot receivers in the game right now and even hampered with injuries through most of the year he finished 2020 with 840 yards and seven touchdowns. If he played for anyone else he would be a top 25 overall selection but he suffers the same issues as the rest of the Bucs offense. There is too much depth. He only exceeded 100 yards once through the entire season and that was week 16 against the Falcons secondary that was largely practice squad players and some guys who were signed from the local flag football team in Atlanta.

Tom Brady: ADP 73.84

Tom Brady is likely going to be my only target on this entire team unless we have some ADP changes. Figuring out out which guy will have a big year of the 8 options is nearly impossible so just do yourself a favor and pick the guy who is throwing the ball. You know who Tom Brady is and you either think he can still play and you draft him. Or, you think father time will catch up and you do not. It is really that simple.

Ronald Jones: ADP 84.44

If you were to force me to pick a running back for the Bucs RoJo would be my choice. You are not going to get any kind of tangible ADP discount, I just think he is a better back. His yards per carry was over a full yard better than Fournette (5.1 compared to 3.8) and both Fournette and Jones are decent receivers out of the backfield. The downside (apart from depth) is that Bruce Arians will bench Jones for entire games out of nowhere because he missed a block or was late to a practice. It is so bad and so random it feels personal. In 2019 during one of Winston’s multiple five turnover games, he missed a read. Winston got a pass while Jones was almost completely removed from the offense and chastised publicly. I am just going to pass unless it is best ball.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette: ADP 87.57

The one thing that we kind of had some consistency on with the Bucs backfield in 2020 was that Fournette was going to get more work than Jones in passing down situations. That is no longer a given. Brady went out and personally recruited Giovanni Bernard in the offseason to presumably fill the “James White” role. If you did not know any better you would assume that it was Bill Belichick who was the main driver of the maddening three and four running back by committee backfields. This is actually a preference that Brady shares wholeheartedly and he has gone out of his way to recreate this in Tampa. This is a nightmare of a backfield now so have fun pulling out your hair if you get in on it.

Antonio Brown: ADP 113.27

If you were to tell me that I HAD to draft a receiver from this Bucs squad this season the only one I would feel remotely comfortable with at their current ADP is AB. With a full offseason under his belt with Tampa and a quiet-ish offseason in what feels like an eternity for him, he is the only Buc who I think has a chance to exceed their value. in only four starts last year the seven-time pro bowl receiver caught 45 of his 62 targets for 483 yards and four touchdowns. His yards per reception were about two yards less than his career average (10.7 in 2020 compared to 13.3 over his career) but I think that has more to do with him getting familiar with the offense and getting himself into game shape. Year two with the Bucs should have a full playbook available to him and plenty of opportunities to exceed 1,000 yards and catch anywhere between 6-8 touchdowns. For a player that you can get as your fourth wide receiver in the 10th round he is the one receiver on the Bucs roster you can afford to take a shot on.

Rob Gronkowski: ADP 149.50

I do not want this to be misinterpreted so let me be clear, I am not saying they are in the same league right now but how many people are aware that Gronk and Kelce are only six months apart in terms of age? How about how he only has one more season under his belt? Sure, injuries have slowed him down but these two guys were neck and neck for years in terms of fantasy stat lines. He played a full 16 games last year and caught 45 balls for 623 yards and seven touchdowns (that’s TE 8 in PPR) and you can get him 13-14 rounds later. If you want to completely punt the position and load up on running backs and receivers or you are in a Tight End premium league there are plenty of worse options to go with.

Giovanni Bernard: ADP 182.50

I am not going any further and I am going to be brief. Bernard should only be drafted in the absolute deepest of PPR leagues as a final depth piece and even then I think I could find better options. Brady specifically wanted him to be on the team, he is sure-handed as his history in Cincy would suggest, and Brady needs a competent blocker in the backfield during passing down situations going into his age 44 season. ADP seems steep but I have drafted in a ton of best ball drafts and I personally have not seen in drafted in any of them so I am thinking the 182 climbs closer to 190-200 as we get closer to week one.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Final Thoughts:

This preview is probably the single most challenging one that I will have through all 32 teams. The Bucs are extremely deep to the point of absurdity, they have a quarterback who may be the best ever at spreading the ball around, and to top it all off they have a defense that can shut opposing teams down making the need to even score points an unnecessary luxury some weeks. When it comes to drafting your fantasy teams you want to aim for clear situations with narrow player pools and while the depth chart is “clear”, there is no wider player pool in the NFL. If you are drafting these guys I wish you the best of luck, because it is going to be a crapshoot.

Hope you enjoyed Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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