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Ras Al Khaimah Championship

Before getting into our betting tips for the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive analysis of Al Hamra Golf Club this week, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this he...

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DeepDiveGolf provides his Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview

The DP World Tour remains in the United Arab Emirates for another week as we preview the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. It has been a start to the year with frustratingly close calls every week. This week in Dubai, it was Adrian Meronk in 2nd and Joaquin Niemann in 4th. We cash a full place payout for us with both at +625. We also cash a Top 40 on Jayden Schaper at +180. Although frustrating, we can take solace in the fact we are consistently finding the value plays that are in contention. It only becomes a matter of time before one finds the Sunday we need to get the job done and collect in a big way.

This is where the equation of expected value comes into play. Whenever you place a wager, you will have a expected return from that bet over time. The aim is to place a bet at odds which are not an accurate reflection of the win equity that golfer actually possesses. Rory McIlroy deservedly claimed his 4th Dubai Desert Classic title this week. It is an event where I first scored for him as a 16 year old amateur, and where he secured his first tournament win just three years later. However, he would need to win the event more than 5 times as often as Meronk or Niemann to justify his very short odds. It is easy to fall into the trap of seeing a bet cash and thinking it was a good play.

It is key to make that important distinction, where you can actually place a bet that wins but over time it is a losing bet. Let’s dive into some research to help us find the value with our Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview.

Al Hamra Golf Club Course Analysis

The DP World Tour move just 90 minutes up the road to Ras Al Khaimah. This will be the 4th time Al Hamra Golf Club has hosted an event. Do note that one was titled the Ras Al Khaimah Classic instead of Championship, so make sure to take a course history preview here to get the full breadth of data for your analysis.. There also was the 2018 Ras Al Khaimah Challenge Tour Grand Final and the 2016 and 2017 Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge on the grade below the DP World Tour.

What has been clear thus far is that the strong drivers of the golf ball experience a distinct advantage. Nicolai Hojgaard won in 2022 and Ryan Fox lifted his first DP World Tour trophy here a week later. Jordan Smith won here on the Challenge Tour, with Meronk a runner-up at the same level also holding a 4th and 6th at DP World Tour grade. Victor Perez has finishes of 7-2-13 in three starts. All are also excellent approach players.

Winner Daniel Gavins last season was the anomaly. He gained +9.04 SG: Putting on the field in the best putting week of his career. That was also a particularly windy tournament, correlating to putting became a more decisive factor that year.

That all makes sense for a 7,410 yard par 72. Fairways are plenty wide. Greens are also above average size. With winning scores typically ranging in the -17 to -22 mark, taking care of the four par 5s is going to go a long way towards victory here. All those players named, outside Gavins, have finished in the top 10 of par 5 scoring in either 2022 or 2023.

Al Hamra Golf Club Course Comps

As always in our weekly preview, we provide some golf courses where correlating form may prove influential at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. In it’s short stint on the DP World Tour, Al Hamra Golf Club has already seen prior course form prove fairly “sticky”. This correlation will only fully reveal itself the more tournaments we have at this venue. But, the fact we have seen multiple longer odds players build up a decent record here already proves promising.

He surmised in our pr