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NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.13 Tuesday Night Football.

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll.

We have ourselves a rare treat today, Tuesday Night Football!!! I was going to cover MLB and NFL today but I really wanted to focus in on this interesting little contest that only 2020 could give us so lets dig in shall we?

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.13 Tuesday Night Football

More or Less (choose 3 of 4): 2.5x payout.

Alright, lets go ahead and get my bold take out of the way. I don’t think Henry gets close to the over. I’ve spent more time watching Derrick Henry film than any other player this year. Why? Well something seemed odd with how he was running and the more I watched the more I noticed that they have changed the run formations. They have largely spread the formations out more as well as reduced the amount of times they use a lead blocker, whether it be a fullback or bringing a tight end in to iso the first guy. Henry is a beast, but he’s not a Miles Sanders or Christian McCaffrey style back that can move laterally to make the first guy miss and this shows itself in this years 3.9 YPA compared to 5.1 last season and 4.9 in 2018. The rest of my choices are apparent off of that, A.J. Brown is going to get plenty of work with no Corey Davis or Adam Humphries even if conditioning is a bit of an issue, Diggs has caught at least six balls in 3-4 contests and Josh Allen has exceeded 311 yards in 3-4 and looks like a world-beater early on and Stefon Diggs is a big reason for that. If you disagree on Henry you still have the flexibility on this one to take the over and still payout if it doesn’t work but until I see the scheme revert back to 2019 I’m going to stay on the under.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x payout.

Don’t worry folks, for those of you who feel differently than myself on Derrick Henry we’ll have a couple below that don’t include him. But My take on this one is the same as above. I expect this to be an air based game with Allen and Tannehill going shot for shot for four quarters and Stephon Diggs appears to have overtaken John Brown as the #1 and completely altered Josh Allen’s trajectory as a passer.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x payout.

Same deal as above with Josh Allen, no less that 311 yards in 3 of 4 and the Titans allow 315 yards against the only “decent” passing team they’ve faced in the Jaguars and Ryan Tannehill is consistently disrespected on prop sites as if he didn’t have a season of showing that if he needed to put up huge games through the air he could. Bills are going to score pretty easily today, he has to throw to keep up. 244.5 is much to low a number given the potential game script and a 51.5 total where they are projected 3.5 point dogs.

Rapidfire: 3x payout

While I think that Josh Allen and by proxy Stefon Diggs will exceed raw yardage and overcome a 7.5 yard bonus relatively easily due to this being A.J. Brown’s first game back due to conditioning alone I think Ryan Tannehill chucks it as I mentioned above and he still has other weapons in Jonnu Smith and Kalif Raymond who more than filled in admirably in week 3 hauling in a all three of his targets for 118 yards. Buffalo has had issues over the last several seasons stopping the deep passing attack and this years sans the Jets in week one are still giving up 300 yards a game through the air. It may be a byproduct of an improved offense and the need for teams to throw to keep up but for the purpose of fantasy that is a good thing.

More or Less (3 of 3): 6x payout

I know you guys like something a little higher risk to take a swing at sometimes do here is a bonus 5th play that takes from previous prop plays for a nice little 6x on your investment. This one is purely optional but if you run everything else above this is just a little icing on the cake. Additionally, you can use this one as a hedge to take advantage of the larger return to still make a profit if you want do go in a different direction on a play that you don’t feel as strongly about as I do. Either way, it’s a fun little option to finish up out MKF article.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Tuesday Night Football 10.13 edition. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.11.

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll.

Now that we are doing our MKF articles daily over here at Win Daily one thing that I want to make sure that I do is recap my plays and keep track of how we’re doing overall so that we can demonstrably show our track record for everyone who follows and uses the plays that we provide. My 10.8 article was a little sub-par but we rebounded (pun intended) with Game 5 of the NBA Finals and the Rays/Yankees series finishing one rebound away of going 4/4 on our MKF plays. Let’s build on that with five more strong NFL plays.

10.8 plays: 2/5 10.9 plays: 3/4

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.9 NFL:

Rapid Fire, Rams at Washington:

Favorite play today is actually in favor of Washington. If you remove two outlier games from Kyle Allen last year he averaged over 270 yards a game in those 11 starts and is getting a 40 yard bonus on Goff and Terry Mclaurin is out targeting Robert Woods 39 to 26 including 10 catches on 14 targets last week. I see a lot more coming from the Rams run game today with the return of Akers and Washington will likely spend a lot more time throwing tomorrow.

More or Less Giants at Cowboys:

I can not get through this slate without getting a piece of this game and they’ve set this one up on a platter so I’ll keep it short. The Jets have no one else to throw to but Crowder when they get behind. He’s seen no less than 10 targets and had no less than 100 yards this season and there is no reason to think they get ahead, ever. Hopkins, even injured has gotten no less than seven grabs at all this season and once again it’s the Jets. Finally, what I’m salivating over is the narrative that Kenyan Drake finally gets his revenge on his old Dolphins head coach Adam Gase. I’m keeping this analysis simple. This looks like a bloodbath in the making and I think we are seeing the final game for Adam Gase as the Jets head coach.
I’ll get hate mail for this one I’m sure. Can anyone tell me how many times Ezekiel Elliott has gotten over 90 rushing yards this season. Once. It has nothing to do with Elliott though. First, the Cowboys are without Tyron Smith and Joe Looney tomorrow so we are not dealing with the dominant line that we are used to. Second, I watched Mike McCarthy season after season in Green Bay misuse the backfield in leading to consistent mediocrity no matter who was back their. Third, the Giants front is not as bad as people think. I’ve been watching them specifically since week 1 and while their secondary is garbage leading me to take overs in the passing game they only allow 3.6 yards per attempt. That’s 4th in the league folks.

Star Shootout Early More or Less:

Ok, let’s have a little fun with a play that is a little riskier but pays of 6x return if you get all three. First, Patrick Mahomes is always, always , always a fun guy to use in prop plays. Everyone is getting a piece of the run game and for good reason, Vegas has been a sieve this year on the ground. But Vegas’s offense, contrary to traditional belief is capable of putting up points in the air and have done so against the Bills, Patriots, and Saints in the last three weeks. I think Patty is going to be chucking it more than enough to get past the 312.5 number. Bridgewater will never face a softer secondary matchup than the Falcons. They were physically running out of DB’s and safeties last week against Green Bay and were forced to use linebackers as safeties as they had no healthy safeties left by halftime. Even if they play, they will be very limited. Finally, Calvin Ridley. Give the guy a break, he had a bad night when the whole team played badly while dealing with an ankle injury. He was two plays away from going for 50 yards and two touchdowns if Matt Ryan would not have been struggling so much. Add with the likelihood of no Julio and we have a perfect recipe for a bounce back game for the guy who I think has taken the reigns as the new #1 in Atlanta.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight 10.11 edition. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.9.

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone ,all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll.

Now that we are doing our MKF articles daily over here at Win Daily one thing that I want to make sure that I do is recap my plays and keep track of how we’re doing overall so that we can demonstrably show our track record for everyone who follows and uses the plays that we provide. Our first day was pretty mediocre and we’ll be sure to rebound over the long term. I was dead on with my expectations when it came to David Montgomery and Mike Evans going under on their props and I was on track with Ronald Jones performing above Vegas’s projections but I missed on my analysis when it came to Allen Robinson for NFL even though Foles failed to hit his 248 yard prop and my MLB plays with Kyle Wright exceeding his 14.5 total outs in his first start since the 25th of September and Jordan Montgomery only striking out four after three straight with at least seven K’s. That starts us of with a sub par 1 of 5. Lets fix that today.

*Since today we are having a rare slow day as of late with only one MLB and one NBA game we’re going to go with 4 prop plays total. MKF has done a pretty good job with their lines today and I don’t want to reach for otherwise bad plays just to get five on the article.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.9 NBA:

Who knows if we get another shot at this so let’s go ahead and get some NBA plays in for what very well be our last game until the next calendar year. I know Jimmy Butler and the Heat are trying to will this championship into existence and as much as I would love to see it keep going I just don’t see them going past tonight. They’ve lost two of their three games this series but double digits and it took a massive performance by Butler to get them over the hump in game three with a 40 point triple-double and even then the Lakers were still within five points with two minutes left. While I think the Heat lose tonight, I think they are going to fight to the end so aside from favoring Lebron wherever possible I think we’re going to have a few spots where scorers like Duncan Robinson and Jimmy Butler will outperform expectations for the Heat.

In this rapid fire contest you get 2x your ROI getting three of four correct. I’ll always take a bonus on Lebron when given and even more so when he has gotten no less than 10 boards in the previous 4 games, Rondo has outpaced Caruso 66 to 23 assists in the last 10 games including 24 to 6 in this series, and Butler will do anything he can to carry his team tonight while Davis has the luxury of playing next to a man who has won more playoff series than Davis has played playoff games (38 series wins to 32 total games). Robinson gets my lean on 3’s due to his roll but Crowder has hit 10 3’s to Robinson’s 11 this series.
As I mentioned above if the Heat are to have even the slightest chance to pull this one out Butler is going to have to carry them with another performance like he had in game three, I don’t think he duplicates it but I think he does enough to get him past Davis with a 4.5 point bonus as the primary scoring option and Rajon Rondo has only gotten within three assists of Lebron once in the last 5 games and only averages 5.4 APG to James’s 9.9 APG on the season and he typically plays 10 to 12 less minutes per game.
With the final selection I like the idea of pairing Butler and Lebron to exceed 59.5 points plus three’s made combined. Lebron has scored no less than 25 points and shot no less than four 3’s in any game this series and Butler is scoring from 20.5 PPG to 26.4 PPG while taking 2-3 three pointers per contest. I don’t think you will need to risk going beyond the 59.5 total goal but as I noted earlier Butler is going to do everything possible to carry this team so another 45 minute game and 30+ point output is something I don’t see being out of the ordinary.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.9 MLB:

The first place that I usually go with MLB props is to pitching but the K prop is tough. The 8.5 number for Cole is tough to pick either way and Tyler Glasnow while striking out less than seven only twice in 11 starts this season he has never started on three days rest and in only 6 innings of total work on limited days off he has allowed 10 earned on 6 K’s and Tampa is hanging on by a thread and will likely turn to Snell at the first sign of trouble. Instead I will go with rapid fire for my MLB choice today.

With Cole’s 8.5K prop and Glasnow being on only 3 days rest I feel pretty confident about Cole in this scoring format even with a 3.5 fantasy point advantage. The Judge vs. Voit is a bit trickier. While on the surface both look like even with the half point edge to Voit but Judge sees a significant advantage of almost .184 in his away ops, an .082 point advantage in average against power pitchers, and a .176 ops advantage against RHP in 2020.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight 10.9 edition. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFLSports Betting

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ TNF AETY Model Prop Locks

Jim Thomson
written by Jim Thomson

The AETY Model has started the season with a bang and a lot of profit. Let’s keep it rolling into Week 3 NFL Prop Bets.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/PlayerSportsbookLineUnit Risk
James Robinson O15.5 Rec YardsBetRivers-1120.5
Isaiah Ford O3.5 RecFanDuel+1181

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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