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Prop Bets

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL MNF Edition 11.23

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL MNF Edition 11.23:

I’m not going to have a full allotment of plays tonight but I’d look to lean unders in the passing game if you see something I didn’t touch on. I’ve found that we have some inefficiencies when I try to fit too many plays on a single game slate so we’re staying simple. I want to build on our nice 3-1 day yesterday.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I don’t like sitting here leading in with unders right off of the jump but both Tom Brady and **Jared Goff** have shown flaws when it comes to defenses that rush the quarterback effectively and not only to the Rams and Buccaneers do that extremely well being 3rd and 5th in sacks respectively they also have strong secondary units capable of staying with top tier receivers in one on one coverage. Rams have Jalen Ramsey, **Darious Williams**, and Troy Hill to match Tampa’s great WR group while Jamel Dean, **Carlton Davis**, and **Sean Murphy-Bunting** are going toe to toe with the Rams WR unit. Add that to pash rush from **Aaron Donald** for the Rams and an always interesting revenge narrative from one of the meanest guys in the leagues in **Ndamukong Suh** and the west coast team traveling east narrative this might not be the most fun game for fans of offensive production.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Same deal with Goff, no need to explain twice. Ronald Jones is really the only offensive weapon I have any amount of confidence in. My DFS lineups are going to be ugly in that regard but the Rams do have one flaw defensively and that’s one the ground. They’ve given up over 100 yards in 6 of 9 games (nice) on the ground including 96 to Zeke Elliot, 95 to Miles Sanders, 71 to Devin Singletary, and a combined 90 yards between Daniel Jones and Wayne Gallman. We always need to worry about Bruce Arians randomly benching Jones because for whatever goofy reason he hold Rojo to a different standard than the rest of the team but if he gets 12-15 carries he should be able to reach the over 60.5.

More or Less (2 of 3): 1.8x return

**Tom Brady** and **Jared Goff** have been covered above. I don’t like and overs for yardage props for any receivers but if Goff gets rushed in the pocket enough and starts speeding up his internal clock Sean McVay is going to come out in the second half of the game and simplify all of the route concepts. Goff will be left with no more than two reads and a dump off option in passing situations. During those times Goff and McVay lean on **Cooper Kupp** as his quick passing option so I see plenty of catches but I think the yards will be minimal.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL MNF Edition 11.23. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.22

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.22:

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

With Andy Dalton back at QB Dallas should be more competitive which bodes well for **Ezekiel Elliott’s** rushing prop of 60.5 and the offensive line “should” be able to hold up against the Vikings who aren’t particularly well in any phase of the game on the defensive side this season. I think we get Zeke’s first 100 yard rushing game of the 2020 season. If the Vikins are bad at defense what do we call the Cowboys? The have the worst passing defense in the NFL and the only reason they don’t statistically surpass the Seahawks is because they aren’t in games long enough for teams to throw for 4 quarters and even though we all like to bag on **Kirk Cousins** but do we really think he won’t hit 240 yards passing against this defense with Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson to throw to? No way. Gimmie the overs.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I don’t know if you all remember but the last time these two teams met the Raiders showed everyone that they have the ability to play up tempo and hang with anyone in the NFL and **Derek Carr** ended his day with an impressive 347 yard and 3 TD effort while **Patrick Mahomes** had 340 yards passing an two td’s. I was quietly optimistic in what the Raiders were going to be this season and they have blown away my expectations. Look to attack the Raiders overs if they are going to disrespect them like this yet again.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I already discussed my feeling on **Derek Carr** so no need to repeat. **Travis Kelce’s** 79.5 prop is high, but for someone of his caliber that’s a reasonable number. He’s exceeded 80 yards in five of nine games this season including an 8 catch 108 day against these same Raiders several weeks ago. Nothing has changed between then and now that would lead me to think he won’t do it again.

I don’t usually go after the fantasy point props but I really, really like this one. With no CMC **Mike Davis** should absolutely feast and we get the added benefit of PPR scoring so 17.5 should be easily attainable against the weak Lions defense. **Matthew Stafford** is a tough dude and should have no limitations when playing tomorrow and he has exceeded 21 fantasy points in three of his last four outings with the fourth being against the Vikings when he was put in concussion protocol.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.22. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays TNF NFL Edition 11.19

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks:

Let’s have some fun tonight everyone! These are the days we love put money on. The games where there isn’t a number high enough to scare you away from the overs. With a 57 point total and both QB’s going for a combined 748 yards passing, 1551 yards rushing, and accounting for 7 total touchdowns in their last matchup this should be the best Thursday Night Football game we get all season. Let’s get into our Monkey Knife Fight Plays TNF NFL Edition 11.19!

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Nice path for a 3.5x payout tonight by taking **Russell Wilson** and his week in and week out 300+ yard production against a QB in **Kyler Murray** who is spectacular without a doubt, but while Wilsons value is largely through the air with gaudy passing numbers Murray’s production is in large part due to his ability to run the ball so a 26.5 yard bonus doesn’t scare me all that much. In their week 7 meeting Russ threw for 388 yards and has exceeded 300 in 5 of 9 games to date. Murray still put up a massive 360 yard performance himself in that game but that is not the norm with only 2 of 9 contests this years exceeding the 300 passing yard mark. I’m leaning Deandre Hopkins over Tyler Lockett in part because of Lockett’s lingering knee issue, also his streaky nature this season where he is boom or bust every week, and finally I expect Arizona to do everything in their power to stop him after he embarrassed them a few weeks ago to the tune of 15 catches for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. If he does, Kingsbury needs to get on the podium and apologize to the Cardinals fans and his team for putting them in such a bad situation.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

82.5 yards is a high number but if they do what I think they are going to do and try to slow down Lockett that should be a more that reasonable number to hit in a game with a 57 point total. Same deal with Christian Kirk and his 55.5 yard prop. The offense is Murray run, Murray throw, Hopkins and Kirk catch, rinse and repeat. Run game is a mess on both sides so air yards will be the name of the game tonight.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Welp, This was going to be a play but no sooner did Alex Collins get announced inactive they pulled the Carlos Hyde 54.5 prop. Never even had a chance to put it in discord.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I’ll be quick, yes 310.5 is high for Russell Wilson and Yes 92.5 yards is high for Deandre Hopkins. I don’t care, Russ threw for 380 last time out against these guys and Hopkins is nearly a lock button for double digit targets and around 100 yards every week. All of these overs will probably burn me but I’m going to have fun with them at least.

High Risk Play (completely optional)

More or Less (5 of 5) Early Games: 20x return

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays TNF NFL Edition 11.19. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.14

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll. I will however give you a completely optional play that you can attack every week. We were 20 yards by Kareem Hunt away from hitting a 6 man prop play for 20x return against Vegas but it just didn’t come to pass. You would think they Clevand would attempt more than 14 rushs with Hunt in heavy wind and a Baker Mayfield with bruised ribs. Oh, and speaking of that this week.

We had a measure of success attacking the heavy wind games on MKF two weeks ago and with the forecast in a couple of these games forecasting 25+ MPH sustained with gusts in excess of 50 MPH we are going right back to the well.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns:

Rapid fire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

My take on this one is pretty straight forward. I don’t expect the Browns to make the same mistake they did with Vegas and the wind conditions are going to be nearly identical with sustained winds well over 25MPH. I’m not really worried about **Baker Mayfield** getting 40 bonus yards on **Deshaun Watson** for one reason. The Browns have the ability to run when they need to and the Texans can’t stop it. So give me Watson for all the monies. I am taking **Brandon Cooks** over **Will Fuller** because Cooks is seeing no less than nine targets a game in the last four weeks at an average depth of target nearly three yards closer (I take zero stock in any numbers accrued during the B.O.B. era) and we heard the rumblings of a deal at the trade deadline for Fuller and I seen one thing with Houston, where you see smoke there is almost certainly fire. There is a strain in that relationship that we do not see as spectators and the Texan appear ready to deal him this offseason to recover picks that they need to be competitive. I don’t know how folks will profile this game from a prop perspective but I’d take the Browns to win pretty handily due to the rushing struggles of Houston. Are the Browns smart enough to take advantage is the question.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I love attacking weather. **Baker Mayfield** threw for a whopping 122 yards against Vegas in week 8 in similar conditions. The **Deshaun Watson** under will be tight simply because I think they will utilize the short passing game to compensate for the lack of a run game but I still think under is relatively safe. If you want to play it smart you can take both sides of Watson and take the money to the bank.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x

You mean to tell me we are getting two of worst run defenses in the NFL in a game with the same garbage weather that they are projecting in Cleveland, a healthy Green Bay running attack, and a rookie going into just his second start against one of the heaviest blitzing defenses in the league and you are giving me 245.5 (remember Watson is 255.5) for Jake Luton and and **Aaron Rodgers** has only cleared this number in half of his starts and I expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams Sunday. He may throw 4 td’s because that’s just his style but they will be of the red zone variety. Possibly one of those 20-24 240 yards and 4 td’s high efficiency games that were his trademark in his prime Rodgers days.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Same deal, 245.5 on Jake Luton with high wind in only his second start and he’s only getting 10 yards less than Deshaun Watson????? UNDER. **Aaron Jones** is healthy and while his volume will have you pulling your hair out he does a lot with his 15 carries a game. This number would scare me a little more if it was a typical game but Lafluer has to get him more work in a game where it should stay on the ground, shouldn’t he? if he gets 18 carries as apposed to his 14-15 carry volume against this run defense I think he breaks 100 on the ground

High Risk Play (completely optional)

More or Less (5 of 5) Early Games: 20x return

**Tom Brady is petty**, Antonio Brown should see a full allotment of snaps and we know he loves him some him, Godwin’s finger is a week better and Brady usually comes out to prove a point when he gets smacked around. Perfect storm of petty is ready to unload in Charlotte. We already discussed the Packers, and **Terry McLaurin** is possibly the most underrated receiver in the NFL against a horrible Lions secondary in what I think will be the official welcome back game for Alex Smith (love to see it). Terry is getting peppered with targets.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.14. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

We actually get to have a little bit of fun this week attacking overs. Going after the unders last week ended up being a pretty decent strategy and our ROI ended up being 50% if you played1 unit across the board. For whatever reason the Browns decided that they didn’t want to run the ball against one of the weakest run defenses in the league in a snowstorm with wind in excess of 35 MPH or else we would have hit our 5 player prop with a 20x payout. But such is life.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7

Chicago at Tennessee More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

I’m not one to take overs when it comes to Nick Foles but there are a couple of things that lead me to go that way today. First, all of the various sportsbook pages have his line set around 270 which tells me this is an error at 255.5. Next, the Titans are 6.5 point favorites so I expect the Bears to be throwing a lot in the second half. Finally, and it’s more of a psychological thing for me, Mitch Trubisky isn’t sitting on the bench with Nagy coaching waiting on to put him in if Foles throws a couple of early picks. A.J. Brown is pretty simple. The Bears play sides so I’m not worried about Fuller being matched up on him. He’ll be matched up against Jaylon Johnson or Buster Skrine which means wheel up on 64.5 receiving yards.

Baltimore at Indianapolis More or Less: 3.5x Payout

This seems like a mismatch both ways. With no Mark Ingram, a pass funnel defense, and the second highest expected total on the day 215.5 seems way too low. **Lamar Jackson** hasn’t been the best in terms of airing it out this season but John Harbaugh challenged Jackson in the media this week to tighten his game up and a expect him to respond. Phillip Rivers on the other hand has a noodle arm, against one of the best secondary’s in the league, with no T.Y. Hilton. 258.5 seems like a number he’s going to have a hard time reaching.

Detroit at Minnesota Rapidfire (2 of 3): 1.5x payout

For some reason MKF doesn’t have a ton of pick 3 of 4 options and I wanted to give us something a little easier to go at Sunday so this rapidfire for 1.5x return is where we will target. I was interested to see two things when it comes to **Chase Daniels**. First, he has a career 68.3% completions percentage and second, his average pass depth is 6.9 yards per attempt. I’ll give you one guess as to what **T.J. Hockenson’s** average depth of target is? It’s 6.8 yards compared to Danny Amendola’s 10.6. So it looks like he slides right into Chase’s comfort zone and 68.5 bonus yards is too much against a Vikings team who will look to run the Lions into the ground tomorrow. **Justin Jefferson’s** explosive ability will likely be used during play action passing when the Vikings choose to air it on the rare occasion and when lined up against Jeff Okudah there will be a clear and obvious mismatch to exploit.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

**Tom Brady** with a full allotment of weapons to include a motivated Antonio Brown is an incredibly dangerous thing, add the fact that they looked like crap against the Giants and I have an expectation that they are going to try and run the score up to prove a point so I’m expecting Touchdown Tommy to put up a massive number tomorrow. **Drew Brees** I have a legitimate concern over. Reports came out this week that he has a problem in his throwing shoulder. Combine that with his struggles pushing the ball down field when he is healthy and I see one of two scenarios tommorrow. The Saints lean hard on Latavius Murray and Alvin Kamara or, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, they use Bree’s ailing shoulder as a reason to roll out Jameis Winston to see if they can get some kind of vertical threat in their passing game. I love everything that Drew Brees has done for the NFL but father time is catching up to him in a hurry and we may be reaching a point where the catastrophic shoulder injury that ended up bringing Brees to New Orleans in the first place starts to cause lingering issues towards the tail end of his career.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.31

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

*****The single most important thing that we need to be considering today is the weather impact on prop plays this week. Snow, wind, rain, and cold weather will lead me towards unders in a big way when it comes to receivers and quarterbacks.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays

More or Less New England at Buffalo: 3.5x Payout (2 of 2)

Hammering unders with quarterbacks is going to be my go to today, even more so when they are either inaccurate or if they have below average arm strength. Both **Josh Allen** and **Cam Newton** have strong arms but they both have flaws in regards to accuracy and decision making. With wind above 20 MPH and rain I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if Cam didn’t break 100 yards today. He has always had a bad habit of throwing off of his back foot causing his passes to sail. He also lets his emotions get into his head when he is in a rut and compounds his own issues and to this point he has only ONE game with more than 162 passing yards. I could justify the over for Allen but I honestly don’t think he’ll ever need to. I think Buffalo will control this game on the ground all day.

More or Less Las Vegas at Cleveland: 3.5x Payout (2 of 2)

Two teams that prefer to run the ball with QB’s who aren’t known for having strong arms in snow/rain with wind well over 30 miles an hour. I’m not going to get cute with this one either. Jon Gruden loves the idea on letting **Derek Carr** hand it off 45 times. At most we’ll see small dump offs and screen passes and now **Baker Mayfield** is without Odell Beckham and we all know he has issues with his decision making. He also has small hands for a QB (9.25 in). Between the two teams I don’t think we exceed 30 total passes.

More or Less Las Vegas at Cleveland: 20x Payout (High Risk) (5 of 5)

I touched on it above, we are not going to get much if anything thru the air. I kind of like **Darren Waller** but I really just don’t see enough volume to trust any pass catchers, he may catch a touchdown at the goal line but I don’t see much more than that happening. For obvious reasons **Kareem Hunt** is the only over play that I like. Vegas is horrid against the run and he’s staring down the barrel of 30 touches come kickoff.

More or Less New Orleans at Chicago: 3x Payout

I know I’m being boring and I don’t care. The two weakest arms in the NFL. On the best of days **Drew Brees** and **Nick Foles** struggle getting the ball outside of the hashes or anything down the field with any kind of velocity. Now give me 25 MPH sustained wind and two reasonably solid defenses and I’m sold. I love the idea of using Latavius Murray, Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, and if you’re really crazy in a large field GPP and you’re max entering Cordarrelle Patterson might be a crazy wide receiver addition with extra running back volume mixed in. It’s crazy, just something that popped into my head.

More or Less San Francisco at Seattle: 3.5x Payout

Alright, we’ll have some fun at least with one of them. We all love to play overs so lets do that with **Russell Wilson** and **Jimmy Garoppolo**. Wilson as close to a lock for 300 yards+ as you can possibly get with the only two being a horrible weather game against Minnesota and against the Patriots back when they were actually playing decent football and even then it was 288 yards. Jimmy Grapes has played like doodoo but Seattle will cure any quarterback’s offensive woes. Cam Newton 397 yards, Dak Prescott 461 yards, Ryan Fitzpatrick 315 yards, Matt Ryan 434 yards, Kyler Murray 360 yards. Nuff Said, have fun.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.31. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25 Part Duex

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

My plays on MKF went off the board very quickly this week so I’m following up with a second set of NFL plays for you to dig into for our Sunday Slate. Hop on them quick, there is no guarantee they will be available for long! I’m going to be very quick in my explanations in order to get them out faster to give more time to put plays in. I’m attacking the same games so see my previous article for an longer explanation.

We have some crazy shootout potential this week so for better or worse we are going to have a bunch of overs today with seven games sitting at 50 or over for implied team totals and the overs have been successful in over 60 percent of NFL games to this point which is a pretty rare number to hit in either direction when it comes to sports betting.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25 Part Duex

Green Bay at Houston:

More or Less 3 of 4 (3x Payout)

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout)

My last play was essentially the same but they swapped Deshaun Watson with Aaron Rodgers so there was no need to change the sub-text. Here it is quite simple I think Watson through likely playing from behind for a portion of the game I give the passing yard edge to Watson and while I don’t like David Johnson in a vacuum I do think Aaron Jones will be largely held out today with Lafluer opting to use much more Jamal Williams and AJ Dillon.

Seattle at Arizona:

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout): This play hasn’t changed

I don’t see this one staying up for long, as of this point the rushing prop for **Kenyan Drake** is 58.5 and 60.5 respectively on DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook so someone’s number is off a bit and from the looks of things around the various sites it looks like it’s this 65.5 number. Drake has looked pretty rough all season and I’m willing to bet that last week against Dallas isn’t going to repeat this week. We all know that Pete Carol won’t abandon the run but the same thing can’t be said about Cliff Kingsbury, especially when they are any sort of catch up. Against Carolina where they went down early Drake only got 13 carries for 35 yards. While I don’t see them getting down that badly anything over a touchdown and It will be all air raid from that point. As far as **Tyler Lockett** goes there is no way I’m not taking the over 5.5 catches when Seattle has an implied team total of 29.5. I personally don’t think the 55.5 total is high enough for this one.

Rapidfire 3 of 3: (6x Payout)(Higher Risk)

You mean to tell me I get bonus points for Seattle offensive players?!?!?!? Thank you MKF. **Chris Carson** is far and away the better back in pretty much every metric and would still take Carson if Drake was the one with the bonus points. While **DeAndre Hopkins** is the best wide receiver in the NFL right now **DK Metcalf** is not far behind in year two and Hopkins is still a little dinged up and once again Seattle is getting bonus points. **Kyler Murray** while being a fantasy stud he has only exceeded 300 yards once with much of his production coming on the ground. While I do think he gets close to that mark out of necessity tomorrow **Russell Wilson** is the frontrunner for MVP on the only undefeated team in the NFL while throwing for over 300 yards in 3 of 5 games and one of those games was in horrible wind/rain conditions and the other was against a pretty good Patriots defense.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25 Part Duex. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25

Green Bay at Houston:

More or Less 3 of 4 (3x Payout)

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout)

I love all four of these guys in DFS Sunday but my expectation is that Green Bay will probably be playing with a bit of a lead creating a situation where while **Deshaun Watson** may not “outduel” **Aaron Rodgers** in a traditional sense I do think he’ll do a bit better in the yardage category. For most of Aaron’s career his most dominant games he would never go crazy in yardage, he would just pick you apart with multiple touchdowns and extreme efficiency and part of that comes from **Davante Adams** and his weekly double digit targets and in most cases catches as well. **Will Fuller** has done a great job becoming more than just a big play threat with DeAndre Hopkins gone but he is still nowhere near the level of Adams when it comes to consistent target volume.

Seattle at Arizona:

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout)

I don’t think I need to say much more about this game aside from what I said earlier, I don’t see many scenarios aside from weather that can derail this from shooting out and playing in Arizona we wont be dealing with that issue. Sans Drake I love the idea of loading up on overs in this one. **Russell Wilson** and **Kyler Murray** will be a fun show.

More or Less (High risk play)(20x Payout)

I’ve made my feelings clear above, apart from Kenyan Drake I am ecstatic to get the opportunity to attack any overs that I can in this game. This is high risk so don’t get crazy with this one. It’s just for a little fun.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.21

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

In order to take advantage of the play offerings from MKF It would be best served if you would lock in your plays on the same day they my article is released, especially with NFL content. The prop plays themselves tend to change over the week so if you wait until Sunday morning you likely won’t get the same numbers or players that I recommend.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.21 NFL (TNF/10.22)

More or Less (3 of 4): 2.5x payout

There have been a couple of TNF contests where I ended up being pleasantly surprised (see Bengals/Browns) but there have also a couple that ended up being the dumpster fire that I was expecting (Broncos/Jets anyone). Due to the sheer volume of injuries on both sides of the ball and the tendency for both teams to struggle offensively I’m comfortably leaning on the later. Travis Fulgham and Devonta Freeman are really the only two guys I have any confidence in the overs with. Fulgham has flashed in his recent opportunities and is a rare bright spot for this Eagles team and he is legitimately the only semi proven option for Carson Wentz with the following players either confirmed or likely out tommorrow: **Miles Sanders, Desean Jackson, Zack Ertz, Dallas Goedert,** and **Alshon Jeffery**. I expect Wentz to struggle, but who else will get targets? On the Giants side it is much the same for **Danny Pesos** (he needs to earn his Dimes moniker back) and he has regressed under Jason Garrett compared to last year. **Saquon Barkley, Sterling Sheppard, CJ Board** all out, **Darius Slayton** looks like he’ll play but he is clearly injured and he did not perform well last week leaving Golden Tate, **Evan Engram**, and **Devonta Freeman** as the only options with any kind of experience to speak of. The Eagles are listed as the #4 run defense on DK but that makes zero sense. They are the worst in the league in rushing TD’s allowed, Bottom 10 in yards allowed, and bottom 3 in penalties which leads to longer drives. IF, and that’s a big IF Garrett is smart he will take the air out of the ball as early as possible and limit **Daniel Jones**‘s chance to turn it over and run Freeman into the ground tonight. This section is really long but it covers not only this play but it covers my rationale for the NFL plays below.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x payout

No need to expound, full explanation above.

More or Less (5 of 5): 15x payout read below

This is clearly a high risk play. 5 leg parlays are largely luck so don’t blow your whole bankroll on this, it’s just for fun. As I noted above, these offenses were garbage when everyone was healthy, the floor is the limit with the number of injuries we are dealing with. If you’re playing showdowns Thursday, it is a kicker/defense narrative for sure but we’ll get into that during the live stream tomorrow.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.21 MLB

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x payout

Splits this season can be deceiving for hitters this season. Betts statistically was bad in 2020 against lefties with a .200 AVG and an atrocious .218 slugging percentage. But he only had 64 total plate appearances this season. Over his career though his lines are .297 AVG and a .509 slugging percentage over 925 plate appearances. He burned me the last time I used him but it wasn’t his fault. It was a huge blowout victory and he was pulled in the 5th inning in what I can only assume was intended to get him some rest in a game that was out of reach. As far as Blake Snell goes, the Rays clearly either do not have a ton of confidence in Snell this postseason or they do not want to risk injury. He’s only pitched in four games this season, only exceeding 84 pitches once, and only exceeding 4 strikeouts once thus far and he is now facing the most prolific offense thus far under the highest of pressure situations. Combine that with the Rays bullpen depth and how refusing to use it in game one cost them dearly I imagine his leash will be short.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight 10.21. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.18 NFL Edition

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

From the looks of it MKF adjusted their payout structure slightly on most of their NFL plays for the better. Instead of 3x we get 3.3x on a lot of our more or less play. I won’t complain about it one bit.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.18 NFL Edition:

More or Less Texans at Titans: 3.3x payout

This one is pretty fun in my eyes, **Adam Humphries** is going to get a ton of looks tomorrow against a Texans secondary that just gave up 300 and 2 TD’s against Garner Minshew. From the looks of it Bill O’brien’s exit may have helped the offense but the defense is still a complete mess. We also get the added benefit here of Humphries not having Corey Davis on the field for one more week taking looks away. On the other side as much as I want to tell you the under for **David Johnson** I can’t. He just came off of his best YPC contest against the Jaguars going 19 for 96 at 5.6 YPC, the Titans have been getting shredded on the ground including 165 to the Jags and 226 to the Vikings, and three of four contest they’ve given up at least 100 yards. Looking for the overs to continue carrying our MKF plays here.

More or Less Chicago at Carolina: 3.3x payout

**Allen Robinson** and **Mike Davis** both have their props set low in my opinion by between 5-10 yards at least. Arob is one of the premier talents in the league no matter who is throwing him the ball and he’s exceeded 90 receiving yards in all three contests since Foles took over and Mike Davis is averaging over 80 yards and 5 YPC in his last two games and the Bears are right smack in the middle this year in rushing yards allowed at 566 over five games.
Considering Davis has assumed the “bell cow” status in CMC’s absence 65.5 if a very reachable number.

Rapidfire Atlanta at Minnesota: 6x payout

I feel like I’m being set up here but I love this Rapidfire contest with the Falcons and Vikings. **Matt Ryan** should have his full allotment of weapons at full strength finally which I see not only giving him a huge passing game bump but also with the weak secondary of the Vikings having Julio there will draw the main coverage giving **Calvin Ridley** room to go off with a bonus to boot. That plays into the final leg where **Alexander Mattison** very well may get 30 touches and is the most capable “backup” in the league. While Gurley does have 22.5 bonus yards what happened last week is not at all going to be the norm, we can all see clear as day that he does not move nearly as well as he used to and most of his equity this week will likely come from the goal line.

Star Showdown Early Slate More or Less: 3.3x Payout

Give me all the A-rob and Ridley over today! I already talked about it above so I won’t go into huge detail here. I love both of these guys Sunday, the props feel way too low on both of them.

More or Less Packers at Buccaneers: 3.3x payout

Felt like doing one with my Packers today. I wish I could be a homer and say over but if **Aaron Jones** gets in done this week it is going to be through the air not on the ground. Even against a soft running team that is usually how he gets it done anyway as one of the premier receiving backs in the league. In fact he’s only exceeded 75 yards on the ground once this year. Add in Matt Lafluer’s tendency to limit hit volume and Tampa has had the best run defense in the NFL over the last two season and this screams under. **Mike Evans** is play is much more simple, the game has a 55 point total, it’s still Tom Brady even if he is 43, he likes big bodies in the redzone, and with Godwin’s injury Evans and Brady are more likely to be on the same page so 4.5 screams too low to me today.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight edition. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Prop Bets

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL MNF Edition 11.23:

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 3): 1.8x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.22:

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

High Risk Play (completely optional)

More or Less (5 of 5) Early Games: 20x return

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns:

Rapid fire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

High Risk Play (completely optional)

More or Less (5 of 5) Early Games: 20x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 11.7

Chicago at Tennessee More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

Baltimore at Indianapolis More or Less: 3.5x Payout

Detroit at Minnesota Rapidfire (2 of 3): 1.5x payout

New Orleans at Tampa Bay More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x Payout

Monkey Knife Fight Plays

More or Less New England at Buffalo: 3.5x Payout (2 of 2)

More or Less Las Vegas at Cleveland: 3.5x Payout (2 of 2)

More or Less Las Vegas at Cleveland: 20x Payout (High Risk) (5 of 5)

More or Less New Orleans at Chicago: 3x Payout

More or Less San Francisco at Seattle: 3.5x Payout

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25 Part Duex

Green Bay at Houston:

More or Less 3 of 4 (3x Payout)

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout)

Seattle at Arizona:

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout): This play hasn’t changed

Rapidfire 3 of 3: (6x Payout)(Higher Risk)

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25

Green Bay at Houston:

More or Less 3 of 4 (3x Payout)

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout)

Seattle at Arizona:

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout)

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout)

More or Less (High risk play)(20x Payout)

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.21 NFL (TNF/10.22)

More or Less (3 of 4): 2.5x payout

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x payout

More or Less (5 of 5): 15x payout ***read below***

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.21 MLB

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x payout

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.18 NFL Edition:

More or Less Texans at Titans: 3.3x payout

More or Less Chicago at Carolina: 3.3x payout

Rapidfire Atlanta at Minnesota: 6x payout

Star Showdown Early Slate More or Less: 3.3x Payout

More or Less Packers at Buccaneers: 3.3x payout

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More or Less (5 of 5): 15x payout read below

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