Can Russell Wilson revitalize the Pittsburgh Steelers offense? That said, will he create a consistent #FantasyFootball WR in George Pickens for 2024? One of our hosts on Win Daily Radio (Sirius XM Ch87) Tony Cutillo breaks it down!
The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in one of the final Week 17 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
I may end up fading the QBs entirely in this matchup in favor of the starting RBs, and with Nick Chubb in a great matchup against a weak Steelers run defense and looking like the chalk for CPT, the best pivot might be Najee Harris.
Browns notes: Cleveland has most of its COVID players back, including Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry, the main two players you should be rostering in this showdown after Chubb, But TEs Austin Hooper and David Njoku are capable pass catchers who can make a big impact in any week. The problem is that the Steelers are excellent at defending the tight end position, so perhaps we should be looking at deep threat Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins a bit more if we’re stacking Mayfield with Browns receivers. The RB situation is complicated with the possible return of Kareem Hunt, but he’s a fringe option at best this week if he suits up.
Steelers notes: Tight end Pat Freiermuth is probably the best receiving option on Pittsburgh not named Diontae Johnson, but both the embattled Chase Claypool and Ray-Ray McCloud could a few extra targets this week if the Browns defense is successful in stifling Harris. Chris Boswell and the Steelers DST make some sense as low-owned pieces who could account for significant points this week, but I’m really focusing on the RBs, Johnson and Freiermuth tonight.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.
Now that we’ve established some Week 17 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!
The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 14 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
A couple of weeks ago the outlook for this matchup may have been a lot different, but in that time, Dalvin Cook was injured (but should return for this game), the Steelers bounced back in a huge way and the Vikings lost to the Lions — the first win for Detroit in the 2021 season. With the Steelers defense around full strength and tied for the fourth-lowest red-zone conversion rate in the NFL and Adam Thielen out for this one, I’m eliminating Kirk Cousins from the majority of my builds and focusing on the Steelers and Justin Jefferson, who will probably end up being the chalk at CPT with Cook’s shoulder somewhat of a question mark.
Steelers notes: Ben Roethlisberger could have enormous value against a banged-up Vikings defense, and he’s got a near-full complement of weapons (minus JuJu Smith-Schuster, of course). I’m inclined to stack up Roethisberger at CPT in Steelers-heavy builds with Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson, though it’s a good bounceback spot for Najee Harris, who had his most effective stretch between weeks 3-8 but has slowed down a bit in his rookie season. Both Freiermuth and Chase Claypool offer big-time value given their upsides, though Claypool has been relatively quiet in 2021 with just one TD.
Vikings notes: Jefferson and ook should pace the offense tonight, but we can mix in some shares of Tyler Conklin and K.J. Osborn, both of whom have some aditional value with Thielen out. Since Cook is expected to play, we can probably eliminate Alexander Mattison from the majority of our builds, though I’m not opposed to getting some shares in case Cook is limited or takes a big hit and is forced to leave the game. I have much less interest in the Vikings DST but will have some shares of kicker Greg Joseph considering how the Steelers tend to stall drives in the red zone.
Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.
Now that we’ve established some Week 14 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 14 action!
The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 9 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Najee Harris is the runaway chalk at CPT on both DK and FD tonight, and with good reason. He’s scored at leats 19 DK points in every game this season except Week 1, and he’s heavily involved in all aspect of the offense. A true bell cow, Harris is still affordable and there are plenty of value plays in this matchup where we can justify using him in the lead role and building a realistic narrative around him.
Bears notes: Justin Fields is still developing as an NFL QB, and while the Bears could have their own bell cow back this game in the form of David Montgomery (questionable, supposed to return from IR), Fields offers some upside with both his legs and assuming a negative game script where he’ll be throwing for much of the second half. I don’t see too many scenarios where I’d play both Montgomery and Fields together, but maybe one in ten GPPs. WRs to target include the underperforming Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney, who has had some big games but popped up on the injury report last week and was limited in practice (but expected to play Monday night). If Mooney can’t go, Marquise Goodwin would get a big bump and make some sense as a last piece in 3-man Bears stacks. TEs Cole Kmet and an insanely low-price Jimmy Graham could be gamebreakers at well. Graham is priced at just $200 but is finally eligible to return to action tonight, so he might be worth a punt in some builds.
Steelers notes: After Harris, we have abiding interest in Ben Roethliberger and Diontae Johnson, who has at least 12 targets in four out of his last five games. I’d be leaning toward a Big Ben fade if I’m playing both Johnson and Harris, but we could go for a full four-man stack that includes Chase Claypool in a build or two if we punt CPT with Jimmy Graham, which could be hilarious and not necessarily a terrible way to approach cash games. There’s actually a path to Mooney in that build as well, and if plays I’m definitely considering it. TE Pat Freiermuth could also be a factor, but he’s not a huge priority.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Forget about the questionable guys and whether or not Jimmy Graham is active.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Neglect Khalil Herbert if Montgomery is inactive. He’ll be important.
Now that we’ve established some Week 8 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!
With the start of the NFL Playoffs, Collector’s Corner will take a look at what trading cards could see a bump based on their impending gridiron success. We’ll start with the AFC.
Note: Collector’s Corner will use my DFS-derived Cash/GPP/Punt terminology (introduced in part 2 of my NBA preview piece) to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.
Cash – Patrick Mahomes rookie trading cards remain the most sought-after and expensive slabs on the market. There’s still some room for growth, and the Chiefs appear poised for another Super Bowl run. If you can’t afford the 2017 rookies, there are plenty of 2018-2020 products that still command high prices and are worth grabbing. And the second-year PSA 9s won’t break your bankroll.
GPP – Tyreek Hill and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are probably the two players with the most growth potential on the Chiefs, as a 2016 Panini Prizm Silver (in a PSA 10) sold for just $375 in November, and the injury to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (and acquisition of Le’Veon Bell) slowed the hype train on the Chiefs rookie RB. I just bought a gorgeous SGC 10 of Hill’s Prizm Silver rookie for $275 – I like the SGC slabs better anyway and this could easily be a $450-500 trading card if he shines again in the playoffs.
Punt – Travis Kelce is a great player, but tight end trading cards don’t typically command the prices that QBs, RBs and even WRS do. Excluding his beautiful 2013 National Treasures autos and RPAs, Kelce’s rookies are affordable and prime for more growth as collectors realize what a generational talent he is at the position and how he’s a near lock for HOF enshrinement in Canton.
Cash – Josh Allen is the guy to collect right now, period. I’m buying up Prizms and Donruss Rated Rookies – as well as any and all parallels when I can – and I’ve already seen 50% growth in a die-cut 2018 Obsidian Cutting Edge rookie patch card (pictured below) I got for under $50 a couple of weeks ago. His 2018 Prizm trading cards are selling for outrageous prices, but I think as long as the Bills aren’t done, neither is that profit potential. I really like his Prizm Red, White and Blue rookie card, which can be found in retail cello packs from that year. 2018 products are still a solid buy, as we’ve got Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and Saquon Barkley in that class as well, and the prices dropped a bit with the Barkley injury and while Jackson struggled through some November chill.
GPP – Stefon Diggs and Devin Singletary have a few things going against them for maximum value. Diggs rookies are in Minnesota Vikings gear, and Singletary splits the backfield with Zack Moss – who’s a solid rookie buy that hasn’t seen much of a jump at all. I might pivot to cheaper low-numbered 2020 Diggs parallels instead of shelling out big bucks for his Vikings trading cards.
Punt – Gabriel Davis could have a solid career if he cuts down on the stupid penalties and continues to improve. There’s a lot to like about him and his cards are very affordable – but the Bills have lots of skill position players who could overshadow him.
Cash – Lamar Jackson falls just behind Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and ahead of Baker Mayfield (more on him later). He’s almost a GPP buy because of the questions about his long-term viability, but I think there’s still plenty of growth potential. If the Ravens can pull off a couple of playoff wins and he plays well – we could see an immediate jump back to the where the prices were in 2019.
GPP – J.K. Dobbins is probably the best buy on the Ravens right now, and his cards remain cheap because he shares backfield duties with Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram II. That won’t last, so get yourself one of his rookies.
Punt – Patrick Queen and Devin Duvernay are cheap and while defensive players don’t fare all that well, standout Ravens ILBs have a legacy all their own. Duvernay has a lot of talent but needs some development before his cards do anything at all.
Cash – Derrick Henry is a beast, and there’s a live eBay auction right now for a PSA 10 Gem Mint example of his 2016 Prizm Silver rookie. It’ll be interesting to see how high it goes, since the recent sold examples encompass a wide range from $450 to well over $600.
GPP – Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown trading cards have some juice, but they’d have a lot more if the Titans somehow went to the Super Bowl. Hey they came close last year!
Punt – I might invest in a few Darrynton Evans and Corey Davis (2017) rookie cards, but they are definitely punts that would need a few planets to align before they saw a discernible jump.
Cash – I highly recommend buying up the Colts in team breaks for their talented rookies – led by Jonathan Taylor. Taylor’s trading cards are on the rise but still affordable – and there’s lots of excellent products to choose from (2020 Mosaic, Prizm Draft, Prizm and Phoenix are my favorites).
GPP – Michael Pittman, Jr. has a great frame and a bright future in the NFL. We’ve seen flashes of what he’s capable of, but he’s lost a bit in the exceptional 2020 WR class.
Punt – Jacob Eason base cards are dirt cheap – because his future is uncertain compared to the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and even QB-in-waiting Jordan Love. Other than being buried on the depth chart for the rest of 2020, the biggest knock on his future is his mobility. If he has elite upside, it’s more Peyton Manning than Patrick Mahomes, since he doesn’t operate well in the muddy pockets that characterize modern NFL football.
Cash – Baker Mayfield cards are selling for about one-quarter of what Josh Allen cards are commanding at the moment, which is pretty insane when you consider that both QBs have unlimited potential. Raw 2018 Prizm base rookies can be had for $15-20, and they’re hard to find in a PSA 10. If you see one of those for under $1K, buy it.
GPP – Nick Chubb is a stud, and he’s part of that solid 2018 draft class. If I were a Browns fan, I’d be buying up all his stuff. I might just do it anyway.
Punt – I have a really sweet 2020 Harrison Bryant Prizm Draft Picks auto (numbered 6/25) for sale on eBay, and I get lowball offers for it all the time. I might just pull it off my listings if he shines in the playoffs.
Cash – Some Ben Roethlisberger trading cards are quite expensive but base rookies still have some growth potential, especially if he can make another run at the Lombardi trophy. Sadly, I don’t think this team has the running game to get it done.
GPP – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are all decent buys, but their long-term value depends on the future of the QB position.
Punt – Anthony McFarland, Jr. is my buy-low guy, and I don’t think he’s been given a fair shot at touches with the other Steelers RBs struggling so much this season. Maybe he’ll break out in 2021.
Stay tuned for Part 2 — the NFC!
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 15 NFL DFS contests!
There’s plenty of uncertainty looming as we approach the MNF contest this week, although it’s not necessarily a question of competition; the Steelers should win this game handily as the Bengals haven’t really been able to stop anyone and they’re rolling out an objectively bad QB in Ryan Finley.
The biggest question is who exactly will be logging most of the backfield touches for the Steelers, who may simply rely on their usual smattering of quick-attack passing plays and the occasional heave to their assortment of capable receivers (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, James Washington and TE Eric Ebron) in the red zone. Johnson has been dealing with the dropsies but is still the highest priced WR in this contest. On the Cincy side, I’m still interested in slot man Tyler Boyd for his PPR upside and rookie revelation Tee Higgins (58-778-5 this season) for his red zone upside.
Ben Roethlisberger is the obvious chalk at CPT, though we can get a few key pieces of the Steelers passing game if we roster the right cheap RB – be it James Conner (questionable with a quad injury), the largely ineffective and boring Benny Snell, Jr. or passing down back Jaylen Samuels. Conner sat out weeks 12 and 13 with COVID, ran for just 18 yards on 10 carries in Week 14, and earlier this week looked like a longshot to even suit up for Week 15. He didn’t practice Thursday but got in limited sessions Friday and Saturday.
If Conner doesn’t play tonight, I’ll consider Snell, but I’m partial to Samuels and rookie RB Anthony McFarland, Jr., — who could be inactive again (like Week 14) if Conner does end up playing. If we get word that McFarland (just $200 as a flex on DK) will be in the mix for carries, I’ll be locking him into about half my GPP lineups. Somebody on the Steelers is going to shred this awful Bengals run defense, but the injury to Conner and the varied nebulous roles that define each of the other RBs really complicate the matter. WRs are still the priority for PIT, but the price points for the RBs are a prime pathway to a big payday.
The Bengals have their own issues at RB, with Giovani Bernard, Trayveon Williams and Samaje Perine likely splitting the workload until a “hot hand” emerges. Pass protection and ball protection – and not talent – might be the largest factors for the Bengals backfield in this matchup. Bernard’s fumble in Week 14 earned him a spot on the bench, but he’s still the most versatile back they have with Joe Mixon sidelined on IR indefinitely. I’ll have one or two Bengals total in my builds (Higgins/Seibert or Boyd/Bernard), and probably never three — though it makes sense to build at least one Finley/Boyd or Finley/Higgins lineup.
I probably don’t have to tell you to consider the Steelers DST and fade the Bengals DST, but it’s worth mentioning as Pittsburgh should easily confound Finley and force some turnovers. Bengals kicker Austin Seibert will get the start, and Chris Boswell should be healthy enough to play for Pittsburgh. Neither kicker is a priority.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.
DO: Play Big Ben. The Steelers WRs are too good and the RBs don’t do enough for this team.
DON’T: Forget about the Steelers defense. They’ve lost a few key players but it’s a deep team with plenty of playmakers.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
We’re always looking for ways to put money in your pockets here at Win Daily. When there is a betting line that we can take advantage of, we let you know about it too! Here are a few plays we like on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NFL Futures Bets for 2020.
There are a few teams I’m looking to take advantage of this year in the NFL one of them is my beloved Giants… Make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @michaelrasile1 and hop into our Free Expert Chat on Discord.
Giants – o/u 6.5 on DraftKings- UNDER
The Giants had 4 wins last year, 2 against the Redskins, and they got better. Defense is still terrible but the offensive line did get better through the draft. I can maybe see 1 win in their first 5 games: Home against the Steelers (loss), At the Bears (loss), Home against the 49ers (loss), At the Rams (loss), Home against the Cowboys (loss). Maybe maybe maybe one of those goes the Giants way, but probably not. Facing the AFC North and NFC West with each division potentially making the argument that 3 teams from those divisions can make the playoffs. No shot at 7 wins. High on saquon in fantasy, pretty low on Daniel Jones, especially with a deep QB class.
Rams – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Rams went 9-7 last year and easily could have been in the playoffs if Greg the Leg could hit an easy field goal against Seattle. They have almost $65 million tied in dead cap (Gurley, Matthews, Cooks) and a bad QB. Offensive line was the biggest problem last year and they did some to fix it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was bad again. Todd was bad, but still had over 1000 yard from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns. AFC East and NFC East are pretty easy. NFC West will be hard this year. 2 extra games are the Bucs and Bears, Tom Brady should be fine, and the Bears defense has given the rams fits the last few years. I think their offense won’t be as it was in 2018 and I think their defense will be middle of the pack.
Bears – o/u 7.5 – OVER
Deshaun Watson came out and said the Bears never even spoke with him. Now they are stuck with a terrible QB and Mitch Trubisky. Nick Foles was beat out by a 6th round rookie last year, so the Bears thought they should trade a 4th round pick for him, take on his contract (restructured) and now they’re in a pickle. With all that said, their schedule is super easy and them starting out 5-1 or 6-1. AFC South, and AFC South. Extra games the Giants and Saints. 1-1 there. Probably take the over, but i’d be worried. I also wouldn’t touch anyone on this offense except Allen Robinson and it won’t be until late in the draft.
Chiefs – o/u 11.5 – UNDER
The Chiefs’ schedule consists of the AFC East, NFC South, with the 2 extra against the Ravens and Texans (both play off teams). Per Warren Sharp, Chiefs are going against a top 10 hardest Pass Efficiency Defense. Chiefs love to throw the ball! But thankfully adding a running back in the draft can make their offense a little less reliant on the pass. Super Bowl hangover for all teams other than the Patriots is real. Currently favorites to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 winners, only 2 teams made it back to the Super Bowl, Pats/Seahawks, 3 teams didn’t make it back to the playoffs. AFC is pretty weak this year, so they make the playoffs, but I don’t think they repeat and I think they land at 11 wins.
49ers – o/u 10.5 – OVER
The 49ers schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC East, and 2 extra games against the Saints and Packers. Top three favorite to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 SB losers only one has come back and won it. Roster is still stacked and intact. Added a real receiver in the draft and got Trent Williams from the redskins. NFCE and AFCE are both bad, should be able to hit the over of 10.5. Fantasy will be weird, Deebo might be a fun play in DFS but I don’t see the consistency in season long. Aiyuk is a real receiver in this offense unlike the rest of them. Kittle for sure. Running back by committee, Kyle Shannahan doesn’t care.
Browns – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Browns schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC South, and 2 extra games against the Jets and Raiders. Browns were terrible last year and finished 7-9. Stacked on offense, just needed a real coach and a semblance of an offensive line. Picked up Conklin in the off season for right tackle and Jedrick Wills for left tackle, he played right tackle in college, but Tua is a lefty so he was still blindside. NFC East and AFC South are both bad and their two extra games aren’t too tough either. I think if the offense can pick it up a bit, added Austin Hooper as well I think they do great. Stephanski runs a lot of 2 TE sets so it was a great pick up. Only problem is if they start out bad, how quickly does Odell and Jarvis get angry at Baker and start to ruin the locker room and ask to be traded again? I think there is a shot at the over, but the Browns are still the Browns and in that case I take the under.
Make sure to follow Sia at @SiaNejad on Twitter and hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord!
Chicago at Detroit (-1.5) – A best bet. Detroit at home with weapons on offense. Defense is shaky but that shouldn’t be a problem against Mitch Trubisky. Lions tend to start fast. Last year derailed by Stafford injury but this team isn’t as poor as people think.
Indianapolis (-8.5) at Jacksonville – Is it possible for a team to give up before Week 1? This game is a stay away for me but if I had to bet it I’d take the Minshew magic plus the points. It’s just too many points for a home team in Week 1. Indy probably overvalued at this point.
Green Bay at Minnesota -3.5 – shocking line. Take it at 3 maybe. This line will go down to 3 or maybe 2.5 by kickoff. I’m taking Minnesota with the assumption that I get the line later on at 3 or 3.5. Not in love with the bet but the line tells you all you need to know about how the oddsmakers feel about the Packers (record from last year may be a little fraudulent).
L.A. Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati – Chargers probably win but 3.5 is too much. This is a bet against on Tyrod and Anthony Lynn. Chargers can’t help but play close games and Tyrod just isn’t the guy. Bengals have just enough weapons to move the ball and keep it close.
Arizona at San Francisco (-8) – too many points. Home game not a factor here. Kyler has done well against SF. Too many weapons for Arizona. Game will be close enough.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-4) – line is all over the place. Anything under 4 and I’m on Saints. Line opened at -6 when schedule came out which was absurd. Let’s see if the line moves. If it stays at -4 I’ll take the dog. It’s a stay away for now.
Dallas (-3) at L.A. Rams – Feels like they’re in a bad spot. Dallas has a ton of weapons on offense. Defense is very shaky but if they can get a pass rush on Goff, they’ll be okay. Not a bet I love and i’d probably wait to see if line goes down to -2.5. Probably won’t since Dallas is a public team.
Ravens over (11 with juice to over) – Very easy schedule. Only travel 6k miles on the season (some teams are between 25k-30k of travel miles). 14-2 last year. Loaded and did well in the draft (Patrick Queen, JK Dobbins, plenty of offensive line help, DLineman in the third round and a very underrated WR out of Texas in Duvernay and Proche from SMU). Also got James Daka as an UDFA out of JMU. Edge rusher with 16.5 sacks last year (I went to JMU).
Steelers over (8.5 with juice to over) – Easy schedule (NFC East/AFC South out of division). People falling asleep on them. Great defensive front. They get their QB back. Weapons at WR (Juju, Claypool, DJohnson and James Washington) and TE (Ebron/Vance) and RB with Conner and Macfarland.
Bengals under (6) – Someone has to be the big loser in this division. Looking at their schedule I can find 5 wins but not 6. Certainly not 7 so you’re worst case feels like a push. Small miracle if this team gets anywhere near 7 games.
Giants under (6.5) (AFC North/NFC West) – I know Michael covered them but thought id touch on them too (maybe it’s good to reinforce?). Under is a good bet here. Schedule is tough. Just seems like such a good play felt right to reinforce it.
Broncos over (7.5) (AFC East/NFC South) – Not the easiest schedule but still like it. Won 4 of last 5 games last year. 3 of first 5 on the road but that’s not a bad thing. Pass rush should be good. Improved OLine. Good OC in Pat Shurmur. Loaded at RB (Gordon and Lindsay) and WR (Jeudy, Sutton, KJ Hamler) and talent at TE. I believe in Drew Locke.
Cowboys over (9.5) – Defense has to be decent and then they’ll cruise in a weak division.
Ravens at 7 to 1 – Best team in the NFL. 14-2 last year. 4th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric. Absolutely loaded up in the draft on offense and defense (Dobbins/Queen/Duvernay/Proche/OL/DL/Daka out of JMU (16.5 sacks last year). Only travel 6,000 miles on the entire season (compare that to most NFC/AFC West teams which can travel 25-30 thousand miles).
Cowboys at 18 to 1 – Competitive NFC but this is a real team which now has a real coach which upgraded in a big way in the draft. Defense is suspect but these are solid odds. I like the Cowboys +110 to win the NFC East as well.
Steelers at 28 to 1 – 7th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric (NFC East/AFC South). Steelers got to 8 wins with basically no QB. Juju healthy. BigBen healthy. Stout defense. Upgrades on offense at RB and WR plus solid core of young WRs (Johnson/Washington). Only two legitimate teams in the AFC so there is a chance for Steelers to make some noise.
Bucs +105 versus the Saints +110 [NFC South]
Saints added Emmanuel Sanders and a few pieces on defense in free agency. Solid draft with Baun at LB, Ruiz at Center, Troutman at TE. May take a while for Bucs to get acclimated. And let’s not forget Brady is 100 years old. Bucs offense should still be lethal but not sure they’re fit to take over in the NFC South. I do like what Bucs did in grabbing Wirfs in first round to shore up OLine and like Ke’Shawn Vaughn to be a potential sneaky star at RB.
Packers +170 versus Vikings +165 [NFC North]
Just seems like the Pack may fall apart this year. Won a lot of close games last year and I expect regression there. No help for ARod on offense. Vikings got a headache out of the locker room in Diggs and filled his position in the draft with Jefferson. Vikings addressed every need in first two rounds with a WR, CB, and a Tackle. 15 picks overall and this is suddenly a young team on the rise with a veteran QB and an elite pair of RB’s
Cowboys +100 versus Eagles +140 [NFC East]
Seems like Cowboys have the easier schedule. Eagles a very solid team but Wentz certainly an injury risk and Eagles draft didn’t address needs like the Cowboys did. Cowboys did lost Byron Jones (and Philly gained Slay) but Cowboys drafted 2 CBs with their first 4 picks and now have elite weapons all over the offense. Eagles first two picks with Reagor and Hurts may have very minimal impact in 2020.
Niners +115 versus Seahawks +225 [NFC West]
At some point Russell Wilson is going to have a problem carrying this entire team. Niners get almost everyone back. Buckner gone but they filled his spot with Javon Kinlaw. Got Brendan Aiyuk from ASU. Team is loaded and getting value at +115. Hawks draft seemed full of reaches with Jordyn Brooks and Darrell Taylor with first two picks.
Make sure to follow Jason on Twitter at @jasonmezrahi and talk to him about his picks in our Free Expert Chat on Discord.
Bucs 12 to 1
Already locked it in at 15 to 1 and I don’t mind it here at 12 to 1. This offense is going to be good to great. Their Run D was good enough. Their secondary was terrible. Licht also made other big moves this offseason, keeping NFL sack leader Shaq Barrett, and bringing back veteran defenders in Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. He also made sure he landed one of the best offensive tackle prospects in the 2020 NFL Draft, trading up for Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs. Though he has taken his share of grief for his misses in recent years, much of which he admits he deserves, Licht deserves every bit of praise he’s getting for the bold moves he’s made this offseason to make the Bucs a legitimate contender. We’ll see if the on-field results match the hype this fall, but at this point, Licht and the Bucs have been big winners this offseason.
Eagles 17 to 1
Picking up Darius Slay covered a major whole in that philadelphia secondary and if Carson and the wide receiving crew can stay healthy they can cruise thru a weak NFC east and lock up a possible home playoff game. I love what sanders brings to this offense, combined with the two tight end set of Ertz and Goeddert, and hopefully a healthy Alshon, Desean and rookie Reagor this offense can be explosive.
Cardinals 60 to 1
The Cardinals have been busy this offseason. They acquired WR DeAndre Hopkins in a trade that sent RB David Johnson to the Houston Texans. They re-signed RB Kenyan Drake and LT D.J. Humphries. They added DL Jordan Phillips and LBs Devon Kennard and De’Vondre Campbell in free agency. They selected LB Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft and added OL Josh Jones (Houston), DL Leki Fotu (Utah) and DL Rashard Lawrence (LSU) with their next three picks.
Overs
Ravens – 11
49ers – 10.5
Broncos – 7.5
Unders
Giants – 6.5
Jets – 6.5
Rams – 8
Bills – 9
I hope you can make some money on our NFL Futures Bets for 2020, I think these are some solid plays for the year. Considering we don’t know what it will look like, it should be fun either way!
Make sure to hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord to ask us all questions!
The NFL DFS Divisional Round is about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with a high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!
David also won back-to-back GPPs!
NFL DFS Playoff Weekend Note: This week we have a two-game Saturday slate, a two-game Sunday slate, and a four-game Sat-Sun slate. The two games slates are basically a Showdown Slate without the MVP spot. I encourage you to not scramble your entire lineup by pivoting off all of the best plays. Instead, make a solid lineup and take a shot on one or two guys and/or defense. You will notice some of my NFL DFS punts are way off the radar. That’s what you have to do on such a small slate.
Please listen to Podcasts. The entire Win Daily Crew has broken down the slate on multiple podcasts. We get much deeper on those than we can on these articles.
I refer to FanDuel pricing.
QB1: Lamar Jackson ($9,400 FD) He is expensive but he also has the highest floor and ceiling. It is not impossible to get him in your lineups. He is the NFL MVP and we all know why. He is my top guy.
QB2: Patrick Mahomes ($8,600 FD) While he has not been as elite as last year he is passing the eye test after sustaining an ankle injury early in the year. The Chiefs are coming off a “bye” and Andy Reid is fantastic in these situations (in the regular season). They are playing at home against the Houston Texans who rank 29th in NFL DFS pass defense.
QB Punt: Deshaun Watson ($8,300 FD) I am not as high on him as the other two guys, so that’s why I listed him as a punt. I think the Texans lose which means more throwing for Watson and he should have Will Fuller back (for at least part of the game). He ran 14 times last week and that just adds value to him and his arm. If I had 10 lineups, I would put him in one.
Stud RB 1: Aaron Jones ($8,200 FD) He should get 75% of the snaps in a very cold game in Green Bay that I think the Packers win. The offense runs through him, Rodgers and Adams. He is also involved in the passing game, which makes me like him on DraftKings as well.
Stud RB 2: Derrick Henry ($9,600 FD) He is priced high but that’s because he will probably run it over 20 times and he looks unstoppable right now.
Mid RB 1: Raheem Mostert ($6,700 FD) Way too cheap for the 49ers top RB. Easy NFL DFS play.
Mid RB 2: Damien Williams ($6,900 FD) He is the lead running back on a Chiefs team that I expect to role on Sunday. He is also involved in the passing game. I like players that can score in multiple ways.
Mid RB 3: Mark Ingram ($7,500 FD) Make sure he is playing, and not limited. He does not get as many touches as Henry or Jones but he can do a lot with a little less, especially in a game the Ravens should win easily. I don’t have a problem playing him with Lamar Jackson. It has worked several times this season.
NFL DFS Punt RB: Punt = high risk and high reward. Again, it’s a two or four-game slate, depending on what you choose. You are going to need to get weird on one or two plays.
Punt RB 1: Duke Johnson ($5,600 FD) I like him better on DraftKings in a play from behind game because of the PPR structure.
I will update again closer to Sunday. Be sure to check back.
Stud WR: Devante Adams ($8,400 FD) Target Monster and Rodgers focuses heavily on the guys he trusts (which is not a lot). Easy play that should bust like Michael Thomas did last week.
Stud WR 2: Tyreek Hill ($7,900 FD) He is probably in the best spot of any receiver on the slate against the Texans. TyFreak can explode and the first game of the playoffs, at home against a bad defense feels like the right spot to attack.
NFL DFS Mid WR rankings:
Deebo Samuels ($6,100) He has been very steady the past month and a half and is priced too cheap.
Emanuel Sanders ($5,700 FD) I just want one 49ers receiver unless I have Jimmy G at QB. I prefer Samuels but I do like Sanders too. If you make two teams use one on each.
Tyler Lockett ($6,700 FD) He is the most talented receiver on the team, he is cheaper than Metcalf and they should be playing from behind. Makes sense right?
Punt WR Rankings: Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, Sammy Watkins, David Moore
I will tweet out when there are NFL DFS updates. Be sure to follow me @tenaciousdjones on Twitter so you don’t miss out!
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Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.
Week 17 in NFL DFS is about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with a high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!
David also won back-to-back GPPs!
NFL DFS Wild Card Weekend Note: This week we have a two game Saturday slate, a two game Sunday slate and a four game Sat-Sun slate. The two games slates are basically a Showdown Slate without the MVP spot. I encourage you to not scramble your entire lineup by pivoting off all of the best plays. Instead make a solid lineup and take a shot on one or two guys and/or a defense. You will notice some of my NFL DFS punts are way off the radar. Thats what you have to do on such a small slate.
I refer to FanDuel pricing.
QB1: Josh Allen ($7,800 FD) One of my favorite quarterbacks of the year against the worst defense (in my opinion)on the four game slate in Houston. He runs, he throws, he hits value and is cheaper than Brees.
QB2: Drew Brees ($8,500 FD) Saints are going to slaughter the Vikings. The revenge will be real in New Orleans. If you don’t have Bree’s you have to play Kamara and/or the Saints defense.
QB Punt: Deshaun Watson ($8,100 FD) He always has upside but may be lower owned that he should because of his price and his dud performance last week. I respect the Bills defense a lot, but it’s a small slate and Watson has a high ceiling. No one expected him to put up 28 FD points on the Patriots and 30 on the Broncos in Denver the past month. He can do it again if he is on, he ranks third on my list.
Stud RB 1: Alvin Kamara ($8,200 FD) Saints win big. Refer to Bree’s write up above. You want a piece of this offense.
Stud RB 2: Derrick Henry ($9,300 FD) He is too big and too strong and too quick to get stopped even with the Patriots focused on him. If I were the Titans OC I would pound the hell out of the ball and try and keep Brady off the field. Henry will do his job for your NFL DFS lineups.
Mid RB 1: Devin Singletary ($6,200 FD)
Mid RB 2: James White ($6,200 FD)
Mid RB 3: Travis Homer ($6,100 FD) He is a better play on DK because of his pass catching ability. I expect low ownership on him.
NFL DFS Punt RB: Punt = high risk and high reward. Again, it’s a two or four game slate, depending on what you choose. You are going to need to get weird on one or two plays.
Punt RB 1: Duke Johnson ($5,600 FD) I like him better on DK
Punt RB 2: Marshawn Lynch ($5,900 FD) He is going to get a shot or two in the red zone to pound it in.
Punt RB 3: Rex Burkhead ($5,600 FD)
Note: I love Boston Scott if Miles Sanders is out or limited
I will update again closer to Sunday. Be sure to check back.
Stud WR: Micheal Thomas ($8.900 FD) Obvious.
Stud WR 2: DeAndre Hopkins ($8,300 FD) Also Obvious. Fuller unlikely to play or contribute if he does.
Stud WR 3: Julian Edelman ($7,000 FD) Playoff Edelman is a thing.
Love all three of the studs. I am trying to get two of the three in most of my lineups and on my one main team.
NFL DFS Mid WR rankings:
John Brown ($6,500 FD) You throw to your best WR in the playoffs. Brown is that guy for the Bills and priced just slightly higher than Beasley (who is also a decent play).
Greg Ward ($5,600 FD) He is the Eagles top receiver and priced like their third best. I like him a lot, especially if Ertz is out or limited.
Adam Thielen ($6,200 FD) Better play on DraftKings. If (big if) he is healthy he is way underpriced for a team that will be playing from behind.
Punt WR Rankings: Kenny Stills, Tajae Sharpe, Phillip Dorsett, David Moore
I will tweet out when there are NFL DFS updates. Be sure to follow me @tenaciousdjones on Twitter so you don’t miss out!
Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold Right Here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.
Jacob’s Above Average Plays is giving you three plays to end the NFL regular season with. These are above average plays that will stuff those pockets one more time to end the regular season with a bang!
Take Kansas City – 9.5 vs LA Chargers (1:00 pm EST, Sunday 29 December 2019)
Well, we did it, we made it through the regular season as today is the last regular season Sunday. We’re a little late to the party with this line as it opened at Kansas City -6.5 versus the Chargers but I’m not concerned. Kansas City has been an above-average offense this year ranking in the top ten in touchdowns per game (5th), yards per game (4th), first downs per game (5th), yards per play (3rd) and that spells trouble for the Chargers. Kansas City can now lean on their defense to help win games. Most of the year, the Chief’s defense was a real liability. Bad teams were able to have an above-average showing on offense when playing Kansas City. Since the Chiefs played the Chargers in Mexico City, their defense turned totally turned around.
On the other side, we have the Chargers. This is a team with so much potential that just can not seem to put things together to be successful. They are coming into this game with nothing to play for and after rushing for just 19 yards last week, I believe they have just given up. Like I said before, the Chargers have nothing to play for in this game and have won just once in their last ten games. With the Chargers offensive woes, I just can’t see them scoring on the above-average defense of Kansas City which has allowed just 31 points in their last four games combined.
Kansas City needs to win this game to secure their playoff position and the Chargers are just waiting for the game to end. I think the Chiefs can name the score here. Kansas City covers the number, the lay points (-9.5)
Take Pittsburgh vs Baltimore UNDER 37 (1:00 pm, Sunday 29 December 2019)
This could have been the most exciting game of the week but now I expect it to be the slowest, most boring game of the year. The Steelers come into this game with Duck Hodges as their quarterback with Mason Rudolph on IR. Since Mason Rudolph became quarterback, the Steelers’ offense took a nosedive. Now with Hodges behind the wheel, it’s even worse. In the last seven games, the Steelers only scored more than 17 points twice. They rank 26th in points per game, averaging just 18.6 points per game for the year. They rank 30th in total yards per game averaging 284 ypg and, while this is a “must-win” game for them, it doesn’t mean that they will. Pittsburgh has gone under the total in nine out of the last 10 games played this year, including the last seven in a row.
Baltimore, on the other hand, has their number one seed locked up and have nothing to play for in this game. Coach Jim Harbaugh said he is sitting his starters including quarterback Lamar Jackson, running back Mark Ingram II, and tight end Mark Andrews. So basically, all of the players who score for the Ravens will not be playing. The Ravens will be starting Ronald Griffin III, also known as RG3, and he’s not above-average or even an average quarterback. RG3 hasn’t started a game since 2016 and, in his last season as a starter, he only won one game out of the five he played before getting a season-ending injury. Baltimore will have some starters in on defense and they’ve been playing above average all year. Baltimore allows the fifth-fewest yards per game allowing an average of just 309.4 yards per game (Pittsburgh is fourth allowing 304.1 ypg) and I see them trying to play spoiler, this is still Baltimore versus Pittsburgh.
I see very few points in this game. I think Coach Harbaugh will just run the ball and try to end the game and with defense hassling Hodges the whole time. Pittsburgh needs this game, they will be playing hard regardless of what Baltimore does but that doesn’t mean they are suddenly a good team. Take UNDER 37 in what should be a slow, low scoring game.
Take Tennessee -7 verse Houston ( 4:25 pm EST, Sunday 29 December 2019)
This is another game that should be exciting but has “blow out” written all over it. Tennessee has been above average across the board on offense since quarterback Ryan Tannehill took over. They rank fifteenth in yards per game (355.9), fourth in yards per play (6), fourth in touchdowns per game (3.3), and sixth in rush yards per game (131.9). Ryan Tannehill is throwing for 224 yards per game to go with Derrick Henry’s (and a few others) 131.9 yards rushing per game. They are a freight train in the NFL and become a real threat to go deep into the playoffs. The Titans covered six out of their last ten games and won seven of their last ten games played in December.
Houston, too, is a great above-average, offensive-minded team this year. Ranked 11th in points per game (24.3), quarterback Deshaun Watson played great this year throwing for an average of 239.4 ypg. Watson had 26 touchdowns,12 interceptions and isn’t playing in this game. Initially, Coach Bill O’Brien said he would play his starters before reneging on his plans and announced he would rest his starters. I don’t put any stock into the Houston backups, especially AJ McCarron as the quarterback.
Tennessee needs this game to lock up their playoff spot and I see them getting a double-digit win here. I think they would have covered this number with the Houston starters in. Tennessee has been above average, even great at times this year and it will continue today, lay the points (-7).
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