For the first time in history, six consecutive winners on the PGA Tour have been priced at 100/1 or longer pre-tournament. The reason for this could be speculated from many angles. My suspicion is that it is a combination of the middle of these markets being decimated by LIV Golf acquisitions, but also some regression from previous season. 2023 saw a lack of winners at triple figures or beyond. There is a chance that what we are experiencing is simply the law of averages at play, with a large number of winners between 50/1 and 100/1 last year. As we preview the Genesis Invitational, we also have the excitement of the return of Tiger Woods to competition.
As mentioned on the PGA Draftcast this week, the deep passion fans have to see Tiger again be competitive will influence their decisions in their preview of the Genesis Invitational. A few factors need to be considered here. Of course, the tough walk of Riviera Country Club is not the most ideal given Tiger’s injury. The injury in this instance is far more severe than when is previous back issues were in-play in the late 2010s.
Riviera Country Club has also not been the best venue for Tiger Woods. Historically, he has underperformed at this tournament compared to other golf courses. His best finish at this track came in 2004 in debut when finishing 7th. His overall popularity is still going to see him disproportionally owned in DFS compared to his actual chances. I suspect he will make the cut, with a finish around 35th would not surprise.
The Genesis Invitational preview is again hosted at Riviera Country Club. The course has hosted this tournament on 59 prior occasions and every instance of the event since 1999. As such, there is a wealth of data to deep-dive into this week.
The course is decently long at 7,322 yards for a par 71. Tree-lined fairways and bunkering narrow the course, along with fairway width sitting below 30 yards on average. Rough is only 2 inches in length. However, do note that the grass type is kikuyu. This grass is quite sticky and difficult. It is liable to fliers or grabbing onto the hosel of the club.
We see a very large number of approach shots from 150-200 yards. Coincidentally, this is the same approach range that received a significant uptick in predicted approach range last week at the WM Phoenix Open. Greens are large at over 7,000sq feet on average. However, they do play a lot smaller than this. The multi-tiered nature of the greens sees the actual target area reduced to much smaller. The course has some of the highest correlation on the PGA Tour of SG: ATG and success as a result.
We have seen bombers find success at this track as of late. Given the recent weather, an argument could be made that this will again be the case this week. Personally, I would rather hone in on the best ball-strikers and SG: ATG along with putting acumen on this poa annua surfaces.
Prior course form at Riviera Country Club has proven a good preview guide to future success. In fact, after Augusta National it is the second most predictive of any other regular venue on the PGA Tour.
The Masters and Augusta National are also intrinsically tied to this event. Jon Rahm completed the double last year and golfers such as Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, and Adam Scott have found success on both tracks. This event has long been regarded as one of the best form guides to The Masters along with the Plantation Course at Kapalua.
Finally, the Valspar Championship host is the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. They are both fairly long courses with tree-lined fairways, providing a stern test for golfers. It can be used as another reasonable guide, despite sitting on opposite sides of the United States.
Firstly, it is worth making a comment on the format this week for our Genesis Invitational preview. The tournament features just 70 players and is a signature event. However, there is also a cut this week. This is at the demand of Tiger Woods. The cut will be either 50 players and ties OR any player within 10 strokes of the lead after 36 holes. As such, any player missing the cut will have had to have played fairly poorly.
Therefore, weather plays less of a factor in our decisions this week. Regardless, weather is calm for the week. What does bear some consideration is the huge amount of rainfall experienced in California recently. The state received a year’s worth of rain in a week. The golf course superintendents will likely struggle to get the course as firm and fast as they would like, especially for Thursday and Friday. You may find that the course also plays a little bit longer as a result.
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Another week and another preview to deep-dive into as the PGA Tour moves to Arizona for the WM Phoenix Open!
The PGA Tour were a bit unlucky after what can only be described as a somewhat lacklustre finish to the first proper signature event of the season. Offsetting that was a rather remarkable round from Wyndham Clark. You can hardly begrudge him his victory after an impressive round of 60, despite the reduction to 54 holes to hurricane like weather. Also, a huge shoutout to one of our WinDaily team Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) who successfully tipped him at 100/1!
Although we correctly predicted the event would only be held over 54 holes, we ourselves were a bit unlucky to get on the wrong side of the weather. Although Thursday was tough as predicted, Friday ended up playing much easier than forecasts foreshadowed. This resulted in a substantial edge developing for players who played the more sheltered Spyglass Hill on Thursday. We had unfortunately gone the other way, expecting higher forecast winds on Friday to prove difficult on the highly exposed Pebble Beach Golf Links.
These things can and do happen. Part of covering any live sporting event is the unpredictability and volatility that naturally enters that territory. But, isn’t that part of the beauty? And, this was the first tournament this year where we didn’t really end up with anyone in true contention. We trust the process and continue what we do best, as we preview the WM Phoenix Open.
Having been held at TPC Scottsdale, since 1987, we again have one of those beautiful weeks where there is plenty of easy data available to preview the WM Phoenix Open. It only take a cursory glance at previous leaderboards to realise a couple things. Firstly, with several multiple winners here course history is relatively sticky. Secondly, that this is a course dominated by good ball strikers.
Names such as Scheffler, Matsuyama, Koepka, Fowler, Thomas, and Mickelson all hint at some of the best iron players on the Tour. They also have a certain amount of grit to them, often finding themselves in contention in the biggest of events. Despite losing signature status, still remains amongst the more iconic events on the schedule.
Of note in the data is the heavy skewing we see in approach distances. Golfers will see between 8-9 approach shots on average from 150-200 yards. Despite being an above average length par 71 at 7,261 yards, roll-out tends to give a helping hand to shorter hitters. Likewise, the wide fairways and fairly benign rough mean you can pull driver often without actually providing much advantage. The main thing off the tee is to avoid the big miss and the risks in the natural waste areas. Your approach is the way to separate yourself from the pack.
Huge green complexes average over 7,000 sq ft. This sees an increased importance on not just finding the green, but the right area and shelf on the surfaces. Putting does receive a higher weighting at this course. A combination of needing to lag putt, avoid long three putts, and make your birdie opportunities see SG: Putting as a good indicator of potential success.
As mentioned, prior form at TPC Scottsdale does tend to be a good predictor of future success here. Accordingly, you should give a higher weighting to previous performance on this track than at other venues. Likewise, if a golfer has had several opportunities to preview this course and never really performed well you should take this into consideration at the WM Phoenix Open.
Other desert form is useful to consider at this event. TPC Summerlin, host of the Shriners Children’s Open in neighbouring Las Vegas Nevada, is a decent enough guide. You will see similar approach metrics to those at the WM Phoenix Open, and a preview into a golfers ability in desert altitude.
Additionally, Colonial Country Club and TPC San Antonio in Texas bear consideration. The latter, host of the Valero Texas Open, is a particularly good guide. TPC San Antonio also features multi-tiered Poa Trivialis greens. They also have near identical distances throughout the course. Average par 4/5 length being 469 vs 467 yards and average par 3 length being 188 vs 183 yards. Fairway widths are 31.3 on average vs 31.5 yards at TPC Scottsdale.
Finally, The American Express provides a nice combination of desert golf and recent form. It is worth considering as guide for your WM Phoenix Open preview.
We saw the beauty of the volatility that comes with the weather last week. Although we nailed the call early in the week that the Pebble Beach Pro-Am would be a 54 hole event, Friday brought far less rain and winds than had been originally forecast.
Certainly, it always poses a risk to take a stance when it comes to mother nature. However, the risk so often proves worthwhile. Bookmakers are notoriously slow to react to weather forecasts in adjusting their pricing. Likewise, DFS players can benefit in significant leverage on the rest of the field when you get the weather right and have constructed your line-ups to benefit.
It does seem quite possible a weather edge may develop this week as well. Thursday looks to be cold and overcast all day. Rain is predicted in mid to late afternoon. This will make the course play longer, but also mean the greens will play softer. The heaviest wind gusts are currently forecast in the morning. Friday looks to be calm but still cold. There is little variation in wind gusts forecast throughout the day. Saturday looks to bring quite heavy rain, which could prove difficult for any very short hitters who aren’t excellent with longer approach shots. Sunday should be sunny, but a very cold morning to start.
If I were to take a guess, those going out Thursday afternoon may see the best of conditions. There is certainly a risk that flips again this week. The rains could well be accompanied by either an uptick or continuation of the morning winds. As such, I’d definitely recommend building some contrarian lines this week to cover both angles in some capacity.
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Before we get into the American Express preview, a quick word on last week’s golf. It was another week of near misses for us on the PGA Tour at the Sony Open. All 7 of our betting selections for the week made the cut. We again had several contenders, with 3 players in the Top 10 for the second consecutive week. The most likely of those was Russell Henley, who looked a likely winner for much of Sunday. Sitting at -8 through 13 holes, he unfortunately got the speed wobbles to play his final 5 holes at +1 and miss a play-off by a single stroke. We cash a top 5 place on him at +625.
Our best value bet was Emiliano Grillo, selected at 80/1. He just missed a top 5 and cashed his top 20 at +350. Also included was Zac Blair in 30th, who was priced at 250/1. For DFS, he was $6,300 and just 3% owned. This provided a great salary saving and leverage on the rest of the field. He easily cashed our Top 40 bet at a generous +333. All promising signs from the golf ahead of our American Express preview.
Fact is, there is always an element of luck when it comes to any sport. Overall, the process is looking very sound after a fantastic first two weeks of the season. Eventually, we will see some big winners convert as the season unfolds and the more our selections remain in close contention. It’s a strong golf tournament this week, with a decent field rivalling those seen in designated events, but we will speak about some of the inherent volatility this week in our American Express preview.
The American Express is the first golf tournament we preview in what I’ve colloquially dubbed “course rotation season”. That will of course be followed by two other pro-am events, with the Farmers Insurance Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to follow. This can prove a nightmare for many golf punters and DFS players alike.
Of the three courses on offer, La Quinta Country Club is both the shortest at 7,060 par 72 and the easiest for scoring. The majority of these holes are very short. There are just two par 4s over 450 yards, sitting at 454 and 469 yards which is pretty standard on the PGA Tour. The four par 5s are all under 547 yards and should be reachable in two for almost all of the field.
The other two golf courses at PGA West, the Nicklaus Stadium Course and the Pete Dye Stadium Course, are about 100 yards longer and a little more difficult. Driving distance does become more of a consideration at these courses. Par 5 scoring is essential on all three courses. Therefore, having a modicum of length of the tee is a real bonus. With three rounds played on these courses, with all golfers playing the Pete Dye Stadium Course again on Sunday, we have seen an uptick in correlation between driving distance and success at this event.
Then, of course, there is the infamous Jon Rahm quote where we referred to the tournament as a “putting contest”. There may have been some more fruitful language in the full quote. In some ways, he is completely right. A score of -25 to -30 will be required here. With that comes the unpredictability of this event. Therefore, it should be no surprise the average odds of the eventual winner have been a whopping 130/1.
It should also be no surprise in our American Express Golf Preview that course history is not that influential at PGA West. Given the volatility that comes with this tournament, it follows that prior course form isn’t a fantastic predictor of performance. Of course, if a golfer has a great history at this event it can still play a factor in your decision. Conversely, I’m not going to be overly penal on a golfer if they don’t have a stellar history at this tournament.
The AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch could provide a good parallel. The tournament is on another desert course with equally low scoring. Since moving to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, the tournament has been won at -25, -26, and -23.
Finally, the Shriners Children’s Open played in the desert of Las Vegas bears consideration. It is another low-scoring affair where you need to shoot -6 every day to remain in contention. The short par 4s on that course are a nice correlation. Additionally, as is the uptick in SG: Putting required at TPC Summerlin.
A short word on the weather. Obviously, with three different golf courses in-play there are a confluence of factors that make any developing weather edge more difficult to discern. In positive news, the winds look dead still for the first three days of the tournament. A little wind and rain may move into the region on Sunday. It will be insufficient to put any halt on the birdie-fest.
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A golf betting article will also follow, with player profiles of our selections. To be released approximately 6am ET on 18 January.
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The DP World Tour remains in Dubai for another week for one of the season highlights. As a Rolex Series event, this is not only one of the best fields but also one of the largest purses. The list of past winners reads as a who’s who of European golf. It is often a marker of golfers we can expect big futures from. Included in that list is Rory McIlroy. I met a curly haired 16 year old amateur McIlroy here in 2006. He would achieve his first ever tournament win here in 2009 and has thrice lifted the famous coffee pot trophy. Emirates Golf Club was also my home course for the 8 years I lived in Dubai. Hopefully, that additional local experience helps our Dubai Desert Classic preview.
As frustrated as Rory will be after the inaugural Dubai Invitational, where he really should have won, it is perhaps easy to feel the same about our week. However, I feel quietly positive after the tournament. It was always going to be a tricky event to tip. Firstly, markets were dominated by McIlroy and eventual champion Tommy Fleetwood at very short single figure odds. Further, the golf course had not been used on tour for 24 years. It took some extensive diving into 1990s leaderboards!
I was pleased to see our extra deep-dive analysis proved true. We nailed the winning score, our course comps worked perfectly, and key metrics were spot on. Frustratingly, our three golfers named as last off the card all made the top 10 with Thriston Lawrence runner-up. Overall, I take it as a positive our analysis was so accurate. It bodes well entering our Dubai Desert Classic preview and the season as a whole.
The Majilis course at Emirates Golf Club plays host to the Dubai Desert Classic, as we preview what to expect from the golf course this week. This venue has held the tournament since 1989, except for 1999 and 2000 when last week’s Dubai Invitational venue Dubai Creek hosted briefly. Whereas Dubai Creek is a short and narrow course, the Emirates is a long and expansive property. The Majilis course plays as a 7,428 yard par 72 and is one of the longest golf courses on the DP World Tour.
That provides the first clue of what is required for success here. A strong driver is well correlated to success here. Rory McIlroy is obviously one of the best in the business with that club. Bryson DeChambeau is a past champion with a record of 18-1-8 here. Other past champions Lucas Herbert and Viktor Hovland can send the ball out there, as can Sergio Garcia who is both long and straight with the driver.
Our second clue comes from approach play. Obviously, several of those already named are some of the best ball-strikers in the business. Names like Paul Casey, Lee Westwood, Tyrrell Hatton, and Ian Poulter add to that list. Putting also receives an uptick here compared to other golf courses.
The bulk of scoring will happen on the back 9. That features 3 par 5s and the par 4 17th which is drivable if you cut the corner. This culminates in dramatic final hole, with a carry over water required if going for the green in two. It always make for an exhilarating end of the round. Being able to draw the ball is a big positive, with majority of key holes playing right-to-left.
Firstly, it pays to highlight in our Dubai Desert Classic preview that prior course form is vitally important. This is the most correlated golf course on the DP World Tour for prior form as a predictor to future success. We have seen a number of players become course specialists. Perhaps none more so than Stephen Gallacher. He held an insane record here of 10-2-1-1-3-MC-9 between 2011 and 2017. 20% of his career Top 5s came right here.
There has also been a link between the Majilis Course and Augusta National. Both Danny Willett and Sergio Gracia won The Masters they same year they lifted the Dubai Desert Classic trophy. Although the struggles of Rory at The Masters are well documented, part of the frustrations come from the fact he has also recorded 7 Top 10s.
Spaniards have always done well here. Golf on the Iberian Peninsula provides a good guide to Middle East golf. This is likely a combination of warmer weather, coastal winds, and the creativity required especially on approach. Garcia, Cabrera-Bello, Quiros, Jimenez, Olazabal, and Seve Ballesteros have all won here. The Seve factor often plays a part for Spanish golfers.
Neighbouring Jumeirah Golf Estates, host of the DP World Tour Championship, is a good guide. It ticks a driver friendly course with low scoring, comfortability in Dubai, and performance in a high class field featuring the best golfers of the year.
Eichenreid is notoriously a brutal driving course and has very strong links. Haotong Li, Hovland, Stenson, Els, Willett, Jimenez, Bjorn, and Montgomerie have all won at both golf courses. If we extend that to runner-ups, the list is even more extensive.
It would be remiss to not speak about weather in any Dubai Desert Classic preview. The Middle Eastern tournaments are notorious for onshore breezes. With hot coastal locations like this, the land heats up throughout the day. As the land heats up, so does the air above it which then rises. This creates an area of low pressure, and see colder air from over the ocean rush onto land.
This used to be so predictable that I always tried to play the back 9 first if playing an afternoon tee-time. The winds would come in around 1pm, remaining for 3-4 hours before fading towards dusk. It meant avoiding a really tough stretch of holes from 6 to 9 into the wind. Winds have played a large part in many tournaments, none more so than in 2020 when wind specialist Lucas Herbert was victorious.
Currently, our premium modelling suggest winds look very high on the Wednesday but relatively calm during tournament play Thursday-Sunday. We will keep a sharp eye on this as the week develops, as any wave advantage here can often be very distinct and clear.
Make sure you check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start.
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With the DP World Tour kicking off their 2024 season, golf is officially back! Of course, The Sentry kicked off proceedings on the PGA Tour last week and we rocketed to +140% ROI after the first event. However, in lieu of taking early retirement for the year and letting that record stand, I though it was only right to deliver all our avid readers with at least a Dubai Invitational preview.
It is the return of the DP World Tour, but also a return to a previously used course for our Dubai Invitational preview. The DP World Tour heads back to Dubai Creek Golf & Yacht Club for the first time since 2000. First opened in 1993, it was designed by Karl Litten. He also is the designer behind the Emirates Golf Club Majlis Course, where next week’s Dubai Desert Classic is held.
The course is a short par 71 at just 7,059 yards. The average length of par 4s and par 5s is only 449 yards. That is comparable to PGA National and Harbour Town on the PGA Tour. With a small field of just 60 golfers, it should be an intriguing event.
The picturesque Dubai Creek Golf & Yacht Club hosted both the 1999 and 2000 Dubai Desert Classic, the only iterations held away from the Emirates Golf Club, before returning to the Majilis Course where it has remained since. The course also hosted a MENA Tour tournament in 2017, the Dubai Creek Open. You can find that leaderboard here, and it is 2nd place finisher Todd Clements providing some guidance this week.
Fact is, with a (basically) new golf course we have to take some educated guesses here for our Dubai Invitational preview. Luckily, you are in slightly more informed hands with me. I lived in Dubai 8 years growing up and learning golf. I was a member at Emirates Golf Club and played Dubai Creek as a very bad junior golfer.
For me, Dubai Creek is quite a contrast to Emirates Golf Club. Dubai Creek is heavily guarded by water, either from the Dubai Creek itself or other man-made lakes internally. Fairways are narrow and pinch in at key points. The penalty for missing is severe. And that is where Todd Clements comes in.
The only strength to Clements game is his driving accuracy. This is affirmed when looking into the very limited data left from those two Dubai Desert Classic tournaments. The vast majority of the top 10 were inside the top 20 for driving accuracy across their rounds.
The two tournaments were won at -13 and -14, but note the -13 for the MENA Tour was a 54 hole event. The standard of golf now is obviously better. And, as we have all heard this past year, the ball is travelling further. Something around -18 I suspect might be enough to get the job done this time.
Again, some guess work is required to find some parallels to other courses here for our Dubai Invitational preview. Paul McGinley finished 2nd and 3rd in the two tournaments here. One of his 4 victories is around Valderrama, another iconic narrow course held in warm climes of Spain. 2000 winner here Jose Coceres won just one other tournament, the Catalan Open in Spain, so Valderrama may be a reasonable option to consider.
McGinley was 2nd following a play-off at Le Golf National. The 1999 winner David Howell was also a runner-up at the Open de France. Jamie Spence recorded a 2nd place finish there, alongside a 4th place finish in the 2000 tournament here. Visually, this makes a lot of sense. Both feature narrow fairways with copious amounts of water in-play.
A few form lines run though Portugal and Madeira, but they lead to dead-ends with the courses no longer featuring on the DP World Tour. We are talking about tournaments some 25 years ago after all. For perspective, Justin Rose played both events finishing 125th and 136th. But to be fair, he was 18 years old at the time… Outside those two courses, I believe a general aptitude on the Iberian Peninsula holds some appeal.
I do believe this is different to the other Dubai based golf courses on the DP World Tour. However, general positive performances in the region are a positive.
A brief word on weather for our Dubai Invitational preview. Dubai Creek Golf course is very exposed to any wind. In prior iterations, winds have played a significant part in at least one round. Dubai does have a fairly reliable onshore breeze. As the land heats up air rises, so cooler winds from over the ocean rush onto land. When living there, this was almost like clockwork and would arrive around 1pm. It would then blow heavily until the early evening when it would begin to ease slightly.
However, the rejigged DP World Tour schedule has seen these events move slightly earlier in the year. Cooler temperatures means this effect is less likely. This is winter after all, so temperature will be in the low to mid 20s. That is 70-75F for those of you with metric challenges.
Current forecasts show only moderate winds for all four days. That is perhaps welcome relief for the golfers, as the number of shots where you need to tread close to water would become infinitely more difficult with wind in the picture.
Thank you for reading my Dubai Invitational preview and tournament analysis.
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Most One and Done golf contests will begin this week at the Sony Open. I have compiled your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive some One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. Even if you don’t play One and Done, it is well worth a bookmark to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year. If you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article.
