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Phil Mickelson

PGA DFS Picks: The Masters at Augusta National

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Masters and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Reduced field of 93 golfers but all the big names – it is the Masters, after all
36-hole Cut: Top 50 and ties & 10-stroke rule NOT in effect
Last year: Tiger Woods (-13)
The course: Augusta National (Donald Ross)
- Par 72: 7,475 yards
- Bentgrass greens
- Tournament is being played in November, so the weather (low-to-mid 70s) and course are different than the normal April event
- The Ryegrass overseeding requires constant watering in the fall, so it’ll be wetter than normal; there’s also rain/storms in the forecast most of the day Thursday
Still no “gallery” for this tournament
The defending champ (Tiger) is barely playing (and not playing well) and certainly doesn’t look 100 percent.
There’s a dude who can hit it nearly 400 yards in the field (Bryson)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Driving Distance, SG: Approach, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), SG: Around the Green, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – The big boy’s been inciting some audible gasps at his length this week during practice rounds (we’re talking driver-7-iron on the 575-yard Par 5 second hole and driver-wedge at the 13th), and there’s a lot of chatter about how his new power approach could dominate. Bryson’s similarly innovative arm-lock style on the greens could also exorcise his Augusta putting demons, so I’m grabbing plenty of GPP shares – even at top dollar.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – While I don’t blindly follow my PGA DFS models, Thomas is at the top of mine this week. This is his fifth appearance at Augusta National – where he’s scored better and finished higher in each attempt. He’s still without a top ten, but JT is remarkable with his ball-striking here – ranking 11th, sixth, second and third in greens hit over the last four years. The recent form has been solid, with a win and three runners-up in the restart, and I’m willing to take a shot at what could be lower ownership than Jon Rahm and DJ, the next two guys on the pricing chart,

Jon Rahm ($10,500) – The Spaniard’s recent results have been staggeringly good – with six victories, five seconds and three third place finishes worldwide since he finished, he notched a top 10 at last season’s Masters. That T9 finish was on the heels of a fourth-place finish here in 2018 – so it’s safe to say he doesn’t have major problems contending here, pun intended.

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,000) – The two missed starts due to COVID-19 could have thrown a wrench into his prep, but over his last six events that straddled that spell, he’s almost in a class by himself. DJ had a T2 here in 2019 – his fourth consecutive top 10 (he was injured in 2017) – and my biggest concern about him is always his putter.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,800) – If you were wondering who was second in my model, look no further. The X-Man has been described as a “quick study” at Augusta, going from 50th in 2018 to T2 at the 2019 Masters. In total, he’s played 13 majors in his career and has made the cut in 12 and finished six times among the top 10. His form is solid too, so I can’t imagine a much better core play in cash or GPP.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Cantlay

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Patrick Reed (DK $9,200) – He’s only average off the tee, which may be a bigger factor than normal is this course plays soft, but his game around the greens have helped him win here before (-18 in 2015). A fine GPP option with winning upside.

Tiger Woods (DK $9,100) – I’d be fine coming in around or a bit under the field’s ownership percentage for GPPs, because I have a hard time seeing him defend without much form to speak of, but you can’t count him out at Augusta.

Adam Scott (DK $8,900) – Scott won at both Riviera (in February) and in December at the Australian PGA and doesn’t have any top 20s since then. But he won at Augusta in 2013 and has five career top 10s here. He loves this place (16 made cuts out of 18) and you can’t really blame him.

Tony Finau (DK $8,800) – I’d love to have the brass to put my Finau GPP ownership at 100 percent, but I’ve been burned by him before. The longtime tournament “bridesmaid” has played quite well in a short sample at Augusta (T10 in 2018 and T5 in 2019) and he’s been a relatively consistent golfer this season.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – Despite a near perfect fit for the venue, Matsuyama has actually placed worse in each year he’s played Augusta since 2015, but it’s a different time and he’s putting with confidence lately and dominating par 5s – a game changer for this ball-striking maestro. I’m definitely interested in GPPs if he doesn’t get too popular.

Jason Day (DK $8,400) – He’s long enough and sharp enough around the greens to win here, with five straight Top 30s at Augusta and plenty of good mojo in his last few starts. In a perfect world, awesome dudes like Jason Day would win more majors.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,600) – The numbers in my focus stats for Fitzpatrick look like the heartrate monitor of an astronaut – he’s no worse than 33rd (BoB Gained) and no better than 23rd (SG: P) in any one category. This week, I’m most excited about his elite short game, and most concerned about his average length.

Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Bubba Watson, Matthew Wolff (GPP), Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Phil Mickelson (DK $7,500) – Lefty is like an older Tiger without the back issues and has similar struggles to Woods keeping it in the fairway – but he’s still made four out of his last five cuts at Augusta. He’s also got three green jackets and 15 (wow) top 10s, his last Top 5 coming via a T2 in 2015.

Cameron Smith (DK $7,300) – My model is not kind to Smith, who fares poorly in several of the focus stat categories – but he’s 3-for-3 here with a T5 in 2018, and he’s a solid mid-level value considering his steadily improving play and string of made cuts since the memorial in July. Even his fellow Aussies think he’s got a shot this year in his fourth Masters appearance.

Lee Westwood (DK $7,200) – I’ll throw out his missed cut and focus on his record in the last decade here, which includes five top 10s since 2010. He’s not without his risk, as he hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s still pretty long off the tee for an older fellow and there’s lots of upside at this price.

Kevin Kisner (DK $7,100) – He’s far from a bomber, but Kisner is always good with the putter and around the greens, and he can compete in tough fields. His record here isn’t as good as the similarly priced Matt Kuchar, but he’s 4-for-4 here and could be primed for a Top 10 if the stars align.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,100) – The ultimate GPP wildcard, Champ will get the nod in my large-field tourneys at about a 15-20 percent clip, depending on this masher’s projected ownership. He’ll be there because of two factors – his ranking atop the SG:OTT category and his growing confidence in tougher fields.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – No signs of decay in this witty Brit, who remains among the Top 50 in the world rankings and usually plays well at Augusta, with 12 made cuts in 13 tries. Pair that with a great price and the No. 29 ranking in my model and you get a guy worth using in all formats.

Francesco Molinari (DK $6,700) – He’s way too cheap and can get insanely hot with the putter — and while it took him a while to warm up to Augusta, his last two finishes (T20 in 2018, T5 in 2019) suggest he’s learning the ropes. Molinari has played just twice since February, but the T15 at Houston last week looks like an upward arrow to me.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,600) – Lanto could be ready to make the jump into the OWGR Top 50, but Augusta makes for a difficult virgin test. The Masters rookie is far from a cash game play and may not even crack the Top 20, but he’s No. 36 in my model and could end up in a few of my GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Shane Lowry, Jason Kokrak, Erik Van Rooyen, Bernd Wiesberger, Zach Johnson (GPP), Si Woo Kim, Matt Wallace (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (cash), Corey Conners, Christian Bezuidenhout (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Adam Hadwin (DK $6,500) – He’s no doubt a longshot to win (250-1), but he’s 2-for-2 at Augusta, he’s popping in all my models and he has the second-shot chops to finish in the Top 20 here. I’m all over him this week and he’s an early leverage-play staple of my single-entry GPP builds.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,400) –Glover occupies the spot in this column that Patton Kizzire took up last week (he finished T11), and there’s a similarity between the two players – they can both roll it really well. If Glover can find fairways and make the cut, a Top 25 is well within reach at a venue that’s given him some trouble before.

JT Poston (DK $6,200) – A slight fellow with decent length off the tee, Poston is another guy that isn’t awful at anything. He’s a first-timer at Augusta but if the course is playing easier than usual, he could make for a fine value at this near-minimum price.

Additional punts: Chez Reavie (cash), Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Victor Perez, Charles Howell, Jimmy Walker

3 years ago 0 comment

PGA DFS Picks: Safeway Open

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Safeway Open, helping you find some winning teams in GPPs!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

First event of new “season”
156 players in field
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
The course: North Course at Silverado Resort and Spa (Napa, CA)
Par 72: 7,203 yards – Johnny Miller design
Poa Annua Greens
Lots of slopes and bunkers, Redwood trees
- Formerly the Frys.com Open
- Defending champion: Cameron Champ (-17)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach & Off the Tee, Par 4s Gained (400-450), Driving Distance, Birdie or Better%

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Si Woo Kim (DK $10,800) – It’s a little curious to see Kim as the most expensive golfer in the field, especially since he’s lacking any real success at this venue, but he has been playing well lately (T13 at the PGA Championship and T3 at the Wyndham). I’m not sure I’ll be looking his way in large-field GPPs, but he’s 9-for-9 with four top 20s and makes for a cash game play if you’re seeking a cutmaker with some decent form.

Phil Mickelson (DK 10,600) – While it may be hilarious to see a Champions Tour golfer here in the top pricing tier, Phil is the second most expensive golfer and betting favorite for a reason: He loves California and he has some decent course history here. The wind is manageable this week and Phil can scramble if he misses the fairways and greens, making him a decent GPP play.

Brendan Steele (DK $10,000) – He won here in both 2016 and 2017, so he’ll be popular. While Steele struggled here in his last two appearances at the North Course, he did make the cut both times and is playing well (7-for-7 with three top 25s) since his poor showing at the Charles Schwab.

Sergio Garcia (DK $9,900) – I love the way Sergio still hits it off the tee and there’s still plenty of talent left in his tank. He putts extremely well on poa, so there’s not as much risk of a meltdown around the greens, and he’s got zero course history – the formula for a smashing GPP play.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $9,700) – For all the grief we give Grillo for his poor performance on the greens, he’s done better lately and can really string together some birdies if he’s competent with the flat stick. He’s also made four out of his last five cuts here and even won the event in 2015.

Also consider: Shane Lowry, Chez Reavie (cash), Joel Dahmen (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Brandt Snedeker (DK $9,300) – The best worst ball striker in the world, Sneds takes his circus show of missed cuts to the West Coast, and he even gets to putt on his preferred surface. He’s a fan of this venue, with 4-for-4 made cut and some impressive showings, including a playoff loss in 2018 and a pair of T17s. If his back is up to it, he show be okay this week.

Harold Varner (DK 9,100) – Varner is a happy-go-lucky PGA grinder who’s had a nice run in 2020, boasting some excellent stats along the way: 15th on TOUR in GIR, eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s also 5-for-5 with three top 20s at the North Course and will be a staple on my GPP lineups.

Cam Davis (DK 8,900) – The talented Australian heads back to the North Course for his third appearance at Silverado – where he posted a T17 in his debut in 2018. I can’t speak to his ability to win here, but he’s probably a solid cash game play (4-for-5 with two top 20s since the 3M).

Bud Cauley (DK 8,600) – I’d steer clear in cash games, but Cauley is just the type of golfer I’m looking for in GPPs. He’s made four straight cuts here (including a seventh-place finish in 2017) and the long odds (50-1) mean his ownership won’t get too high.

Mark Hubbard (DK 8,100) – Hubbard has made some leaderboard appearances in 2020 and actually finished among the Top 50 in the FedExCup – a run that included a T13 at this venue in 2019. We know Hubbard can go low, and this is one place where his skills should translate.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,800) – The South Africanhasn’t played here since his 2015 debut, when he finished tied for sixth place. The odds of him winning aren’t great (60-1), but his health and form indicate he’s perfectly capable of a Top 10 finish and paying off his sub-$8K salary.

Jim Furyk (DK $7,700) – Another “senior” who still makes appearance son the regular tour, I’ll never count out Furyk, who finished T17 here last season with the likes of Snedeker and Varner, among others. What he lacks in driving distance he makes up for in excellent touch around the greens and solid approaches with his irons.

Also consider: Kevin Streelman, Sam Burns, Henrik Norlander, Will Gordon (GPP), Lucas Glover, Luke List, Talor Gooch

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Cameron Tringale DK $7,500) – A feast-or-famine GPP player who usually miss the cut or finishes among the Top 30, Tringale has been relatively consistent at this venue, with 4-out-of-5 made cut and three straight finished in the Top 50. He could be ready for a breakthrough here, and nobody will be on him.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,300) – I’ve seen plenty ofdiscussion about McNealy’s roots in Napa, as the Stanford alum actually made his pro PGA tour debut at Silverado in 2017. He’s made the cut each time here without a significant finish, but his form has been decent and he’s capable of a Top 10 finish – good enough for us at this price point.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,200) – He’s a great guy and he finished with a Top 25 in his Safeway debut last season, so I still like Higgs for GPPs even if he’s not the best SG: APP golfer around. His odds to win are 80-1, which is kind of intriguing when you consider his SG: OTT numbers (35th on tour) and recent T11 (-14) at the Northern Trust.

Troy Merritt (DK $7,100) – He finished second to Richy Wrenski at the Barracuda Championship in nearby Truckee, CA and boasts some of the best Driving Acurcy numbers on tour. His elite putting numbers and impressive course history (T15 in 2016 & T4 in 2018) mean he’ll be on plenty of my GPP lineups.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $7,000) – As a rookie in 2019-20, he ranked fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting and led in average distance of putts made. Played his best out of the break with five top 25s across two tours.

Cameron Percy (DK $6,600) – He could be the best option under $7K considering his T7 finish here in 2019, and his game (along with almost all the Camerons, really) seems to fit this course.

Also consider: Charley Hoffman (GPP) Sepp Straka (GPP), Brice Garnett, Xinjun Zhang (GPP), J.B. Holmes (GPP) Chesson Hadley

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Zac Blair (DK $6,400) – The options in this range are pretty awful, with almost no success among the golfers remaining, but Blair finished tied for 4th place here last year with Charles Howell III and Justin Thomas, so he’s at least capable of a Top 20. But please don’t go overboard on a guy who’s only made about half of the cuts in the past season, though.

Additional GPP punts: Aaron Baddeley, Brian Gay, Hank Lebioda

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

The Match: Champions for Charity Event

stephenbrown764@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by stephenbrown764@gmail.com

The Match: Champions for Charity Event

The Match: Champions for Charity Event will be played between Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning against Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady tees off at 2pm EST on May 24th live on TNT.

Tiger/Phil Brady/Manning – Sia’s picks and plays for the event this weekend

The Match will be a match-play event, meaning each hole will be an independent contest. The format will be four-ball on the front nine (each player will play his own ball, and the best ball wins the hole) and Brady and Manning will get three handicap strokes on the nine. The back nine will be a Modified Alternate Shot format (everyone will tee off and the players will alternate playing the ball they choose).

This will be a fun EVENT for charity and give us ENTERTAINMENT much like the match Phil and Tiger played last November. If you’re looking to throw a few dollars on “The Match” I have you covered. Keep in mind that this is ultimately a charity event, so it may not be the spot to throw down the mortgage, but as you will see below, I think I’ve found a couple of angles worth taking.

Shop for the best line! After checking a couple of our favorite books, I saw some disparity between what you can get in terms of odds. So if there is a side you’re leaning to heavily, make sure to get the line you want!

I like Tiger and Peyton in this event. Tiger is better than Phil and Peyton is better than Tom Brady by approximately two strokes. Brady has also been in the midst of moving teams and cities, while Peyton has been presumably taking it easy, which likely includes several golf outings.

Tiger/Peyton v. Phil/Tom
-186 v. +160
-200 v +160
-220 v. +175

Most birdies – Tiger v. Phil (Tiger -145)
If you’re looking for a fun sweat that will last the entire match, this might be the bet for you. Phil is no stranger to going for the birdie, but I suspect Tiger will be locked in for most of the match as he is technically coming off a loss to Phil last November.

Woods and Manning to Win Hole #10 (-135)
Woods and Manning to Win Hole #11 (-135)

If you’re putting down a few bucks check out some of the lines over at DraftKings and FanDuel.

The front nine is likely to be the more playful nine. Once the golfers make the turn, it will truly be a team effort with the modified alternate shot format, and this is where you are likely to see the better golfers prevail. I wouldn’t be shocked if Tiger and Manning are trailing going into the back nine and then start to turn on the intensity. I like them to lock in for the first true team holes.

BallStreet Trading

Our friends over at BallStreet will be running a real-time market for “The Match.”

There will be both a free contest and a paid entry (no rake) contest for players to join. We recommend entering both as you have twice the opportunity to win a fairly nice cash prize considering it’s free and a low entry format.

Free contest prizes will be $20 to everyone in the top 10 with $2 prizes given out to the rest of the top 20%.

Paid entry will be $10 (no rake) with a $100 prize given to everyone in the top 10%.

Markets have been created for each team and trade based on the win probability as decided by the market. Remember there are no outside APIs, data or models creating the pricing. Only the other players in the market.

BallStreet has IPO’d the match in line with current implied odds of around 2:1 in favor of Woods and Manning. Markets opened with Woods and Manning at §65 and Mickelson and Brady §35.

The biggest factor will be how well Manning and Brady are on the day. Manning has a listed handicap of 6.4 while Brady is listed at 8.1. Couple this with the different aspects to the match (5th hole teams must only just a single club) and we have the chance for almost anything to happen.

The early trading seems to be buying up Mickelson and Brady looking for value but after tee off Sunday the real market begins. If you are planning on watching golf this weekend BallStreet could be a great compliment giving you a chance to check out one of the newest and most innovative startups in the space while winning a little money for your trouble.

Make sure to download the BallStreet app and follow along on their social medias all weekend!
Twitter @BallStreetApp
Apple App Store
Google Play
Web App
Desktop

And make sure to pick some over/unders at Monkey Knife Fight!

If you have any questions make sure to hit me up on Twitter @SiaNejad or jump in our FREE Expert Discord Chat. Read more of my articles over at Win Daily Sports!

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

Win Daily Show: The Match, Bundeliga DFS, NFL Props

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

Win Daily Show: The Match, Bundeliga DFS, NFL Props

On this Win Daily Show Sia (@SiaNejad) and Michael (@michaelrasile1) discuss this weekends Charity Golf “Event” between Tiger, Tom, Phil, and Peyton dubbed “The Match.” Sia gives us some bets for the lead up and the strategies he’s looking to employ during the event. Hint: this is for entertainment make sure you’re not betting too much, shop your lines, and bet live!

Rich Masana (@JFan303) comes on to tell us about the picks and plays he’s liking for this weeks Bundesliga (German Soccer) Matches. He made us money last week, so listen to him.

Sia and Michael finish off the show with some NFL News that may effect betting and fantasy line up next year. How will the new onside kick rule change betting lines? Does Dak sign a deal? Devonta Freeman to the Eagles? Will Josh Gordon be fantasy relevant this coming year?! No, probably not. We also have a few props that Sia likes for which QB starts for the Bears, Dolphins, Chargers, and Patriots.

Remember to shop your lines -> DraftKings | FanDuel

Check out Rich’s article going over his Bundeliga Picks and Plays -> https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-soccer/

Listen to the show below and remember to subscribe, rate, and review.

You can also check out the Win Daily Show: The Match, Bundesliga DFS, NFL Props on these platforms below.
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Anchor

Hop on our Free Expert Discord Chat -> https://discord.com/invite/QsK3HJs

Make sure to follow Win Daily!
https://www.instagram.com/windaily/
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4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The American Express

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for some winners at the American Express in Palm Springs and helping you bring in the big bucks!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full tournament field of 156 golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties play on Sunday at PGA West’s Stadium course – as the pro-am event goes three days and spans the three courses.
Played at three courses
The PGA West Stadium Course is used twice (once during the first three rounds and on Sunday), with La Quinta Golf Club and The Nicklaus course at PGA West used for the other two.
All three courses ranked inside the top 10 easiest on tour last year with the latter two being the two easiest.
Easier-to-hit fairways and Bermuda turf and greens, shorter courses for Par 72s
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, Par 5 scoring, Birdie or Better, Driving Distance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Rickie Fowler (DK $11,500, FD $12,000) – Rickie is thebiggest name in the field this week and he finished T5 in his last start at theSentry Tournament of Champions. A win here in his native SoCal could help kickoff a big year for him.

Tony Finau (DK $10,500, FD $11,300) – Finau is a long hitter who can makebirdies in bunches and remains one of the most talented players in the field.Lock him in your core plays this week.

Charles Howell III (DK $10,100, FD $10,500) – He hasn’t missed a cut in his last 11 appearances in this event, and he’s notched three top 20s since 2016. Plenty to like here as he’s a West Coast swing performer.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,500, FD $10,400) – Scottie pops on allour metrics and is a good fit for this course. He didn’t play last week so he’sfree of trauma heading into the desert.

Also consider: Sungjae Im, Paul Casey, Byeong Hun An

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $9,400):

Francisco Molinari (DK $9,200, FD $11,000) – He’s more of a GPP play on FanDuel because of the price but makes for a great bargain and cash game play on DK, and he may fly under the radar.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,000, FD $10,700) – Wolff might get popular this week. The 20-year-old phenom ranked second in SG: Off-the-Tee and ninth in SG: Putting at the Sentry en route to a T11 finish.

Abraham Ancer (DK $8,900, FD $10,200) – Ancer is one of my favorite cash or GPP plays and I’m going back to the well after he disappointed at the weather-disrupted Sony. He’s just too good not to spike some Top 10s in fields where only 25 of the world’s top 100 are teeing it up.

Brian Harman (DK $8,600, FD $9,900) – He’s my lefty of choice this week and he finished T11-T3-T20 here from2016-2018 before an untimely MC last year here during a rough patch.

Harris English (DK $7,700, FD $9,600) – English will also be very popular, as he’s snagged several Top 5 finishes this season. I’ll be watching ownership to determine fade equity.

Also consider: Jason Kokrak, J.T. Poston, Brendan Todd, Kevin Kisner, RorySabbatini, Lucas Glover

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,400, FD $9,300) – Goingright back to the well with Munoz after a bizarre week. He’s should fare wellhere with the Bermuda greens and the price is reasonable.

Bud Cauley (DK $7,300, FD $8,700) – Cauley is another golfer who fits the Bermuda profile but fell victim to rough conditions last week. I’m buying based on course fit and talent. He’s never going to be elite, but at this price, we’re looking for a Top 10.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,100, FD $8,500) – Gooch barely made the cut last week but he’s a 90-1 shot to win this week – better odds than defending champ, Adam Long. He’s got top 10 upside at a low price.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,100, FD $9,000) – Norlander closed with a two-under 68 on Sunday at the Sony Open to finish -7 and tied for ninth – his second consecutive top 10. I like him in all formats at this price.

Jhonattan Vegas (DK $6,800, FD $8,800) – He can go low and excels at Par 5s – and he won here back in 2011 suing a different mix of courses. I’ll have some shares in GPPs, but he’s not safe for cash.

More value golfers for GPPs: Brian Gay, Adam Long, Bo Hoag, Bronson Burgoon, Hudson Swafford, Sepp Straka, Maverick McNealy, Wyndham Clark

$6K punts: Mark Wilson, Rafael Campos

The PGA DFS Fades:

Phil Mickelson (DK $8,700, FD $10,100) – Everybody’s talking up “Tournament Host” Phil, but he just doesn’t play a lot of golf anymore and there’s a LOT of talented players out here. I may stick him in one or two large-field GPPs if I land on him in that price range, but I’d much rather have Harman or Ancer, especially in cash games.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,500, FD $9,400) – I really didn’t like what I saw on that final hole Sunday night. It reminded me of Justin Thomas at Kapalua, and we know how he fared last week. Steele isn’t as good as he played last week, so I’ll be fading him in my lineups despite his second-place finish in the Sony Open.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (studs/scrubs)

R. Fowler

T. Finau

M. Wolff

B. Burgoon

S. Straka

R. Campos

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (balanced):

F. Molinari

M. Wolff

A. Ancer

B. Harman

T. Gooch

H. Norlander

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3(large-field):

B. An

S. Scheffler

H. English

R. Sabbatini

S. Munoz

B. Gay

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4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

The Range: 3M Open (TPC Twin Cities)

Patrick Waters 5 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

This week we’ll go over the Rocket Mortgage Classic from last week and get you ready for the upcoming 3M Open right here on WIN DAILY.

Recap of the Rocket Mortgage Classic

Raise your hand if you had Nate Lashley in your player pool. Don’t worry about it, no one did. DraftKings never added him, so it’s not your fault. Past him though, the top of the leaderboard was a mixed bag of players you may not have expected: Redman, Roach and Potter to name a few.

The Insight Sheet’s results were par (pun intended) for the industry average on the week. Out of the 24 players in my personal player pool, only 14 made the cut. It did include Top 25 players such as Danny Lee (3%), Sepp Straka (4%) and Patrick Reed (8%). This is the first week that my personal player pool did not include the winner (second place this week). We’ll look to right the ship at the new 3M Open.

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The Basics

Course: TPC Twin Cities
Par: 71
Length: 7,468
Greens: Bent, Larger than tour average (Cannot find true yardage at this point)
Fairways: Wider than tour average (Some holes, 35 – 40 yards wide)
Architect: Arnold Palmer

Course Fit

Like last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the 3M Open is a brand new stop on the tour. The tournament will be held at the TPC Twin Cities course located north of Minneapolis, Minnesota. The venue was a 17-year staple on the Champions tour (2001 – 2018). For the last seven years on the senior tour TPC Twin Cities ranked first or second in birdies. Similar to last week, I fully expect the 3M Open to be a birdie fest.

With low scoring almost guaranteed, we want to look at courses with easy scoring layouts. The Top 10 in Strokes Gained Total and their collective DraftKings points for such layouts are displayed below.

SG: Total on easy to score courses — Last 50 rounds

Fairway width and location of hazards is a huge part of scoring. Golfers having the ability to choose where to land the ball instead of forcing a shot is crucial. This chart shows the Top 10 in SG: TOT and DK points for easy to hit fairways.

Top 10 in strokes gained total for easy to hit fairways. — Last 50 rounds

Putting will be vital for golfers to succeed this week at the 3M Open. Below are the Top 10 golfers in SG: Putting (bent grass) and their respective putting baselines.

Strokes Gaines Putting on Bent Grass — Last 50 rounds

This article was written before prices are available. Based off these three charts above though, I would take a serious look at Jason Day.

Player Fit – Back End

Below we’ll find the official scorecard from the PGA media guide.

With the anticipation of a low scoring affair, we’ll need to determine which holes to target for a birdie attempt. After reading Chris Hollander’s write up on Twitter, I agree with his assessment. Chris recognizes that holes 1, 4-6, 10, 12, 16 and 18 should all play below par this week. Four of them are Par 4’s with a distance of 400 – 450 yards (six on the course total). The remaining scoring holes are Par 5’s between the distance of 550 – 600 yards and one Par 3.

Golfers who put themselves in position to score DK points will be key to our player pools. For that measure, we’ll include Opportunity Gained and Strokes Gained Putting (bent grass).

The chart above shows the Top 10 ranked in the model with all of the categories listed. Day’s name once again pops up along with DeChambeau and Finau showing up several times.

Final Recap

With the 3M Open, at TPC Twin Cities, becoming a new stop for the PGA tour, drawing data was scarce. Last week with the unknown, I weighted my model to be very balanced, more so than normal. Unfortunately it did not have the greatest success. With similar conditions to last week I’ll be tilting my model to be more birdie/point heavy. Performing this action will hopefully provide a better player pool to choose from.

Course Setup:
Easy to score
Easy to hit fairways
Bent grass greens

Player efficiencies:
Opportunity gained
Par 4 scoring: 400 – 450 yards
Par 5 scoring: 550 – 600 yards
Strokes gained putting

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my model’s Top 50 with Data Golf World Rankings, Vegas Odds, and analysis on my personal player pool.

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Please leave a comment below or reach out on Twitter if you found this helpful and any questions you may have.

Stats source: FantasyNational

5 years ago 0 comment

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Recap of the Rocket Mortgage Classic

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The Basics

Course Fit

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Final Recap

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