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ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks

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ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks

Another 78 person field and another opportunity to jam in upside at a no-cut event.  We will bring you much more in the next 24 hours with articles and our expert chat, and of course, the Tuesday PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST @windailysports on Twitter and YouTube and Twitch.  We have a relatively short course this week with five Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.  I’d focus on birdie makers and APP here but you will also want to factor in accuracy OTT as there are some trouble spots on most of the holes. Here are my ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (11000) – The entire team was on Xander last week and that worked out just fine, but this week I’m going to pivot from Xander to Rahm in the elite range.  Rahm was average last week (17th) and hopefully that keeps his ownership reasonable. 

Justin Thomas (10600) – Another guy I like in the elite tier.  His APP game is best in the field and last week’s 12th place finish felt like a tune-up.  If he can get the putter going at all you will see him contending late Sunday afternoon.

Patrick Reed (9600) – Haven’t heard from him much lately but let’s not forget the last time we did see him as at the U.S. Open where he finished 13th.  He’s also enjoyed great success on comparable courses. 

Viktor Hovland (9200) – One of my top guys last week and he quietly finished in 12th. He gained over 3 strokes ball striking last week and even gained strokes ARG which is his alleged weakness. 

Bubba Watson (8700) – Literally the first time I’ve ever had Bubba in a write-up, but the guy has earned it.  His ball striking has been elite lately and it’s looking like his ownership percentage will be below 10% which is notable given the price range and the number of players in the field. 

Joaquin Niemann (8400) – Can go hot and cold but was great last week and has the type of upside you want.   This is a great price for a guy in great form and a great course fit.  I may sprinkle some on Joaquin for an outright win.

Russell Henley (8100) – I didn’t have as many shares as I should have last week and it cost me.   He continues to be priced low and therefore needs to be considered as his ball striking has been great lately.  Normally I’d suggest his upside is limited, but that’s hard to argue as he finished 3rd last week.  Be careful here as he picked up a ton of strokes putting last week.  Still, even if putter cools down, the value is good at this price.

Sebastian Munoz (7200) – A pretty low price for a guy that has been making cuts at an incredible rate and who has the ability to finish Top 10 as he proved last week.  We may be looking at a guy who is ready to consistently be in the conversation, so I’m going to jump aboard while he’s still cheap.

Joel Dahmen (6500) – In a no-cut event I’m looking for a guy who can string a very low round together and Dahmen is that guy.  His blow up spot won’t cost you too much relative to the scoring potential he has all four days.

Secret Weapon (Sub 6k/Less than 5% owned) – see you in Discord.

See everyone tonight for the Tuesday Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast and YouTube channel!

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Sanderson Farms: Initial Picks

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Sanderson Farms: Initial Picks

This week the PGA Tour arrives in Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Similar to last week, there isn’t a ton of talent in the field, but there is certainly a talent upgrade relative to last week. We have plenty more content coming from Antonio and Steven, and of course, the PGA Livestream is every Tuesday Night @windailysports and on YouTube so please tune into that and subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast. Here are my Sanderson Farms: Initial Picks.

Sam Burns (9800) – This range is probably where I will be starting most of my lineups, but I will certainly have a couple shares of Scheffler, Im and Zalatoris (more on this on the Tuesday Livestream and Win Daily Podcast).  I prefer more balance this week so my core will feature guys like Burns and Redman.  Last week I had Burns in DFS and outright, but a disappointing Saturday took him out of contention.  He rebounded nicely on Sunday and I think he has plenty of win equity in a field that features similar talent.  Burns finished 45th here last year, but finished 3rd in 2019.

Doc Redman (9700) – One thing you’ll notice if you follow golf is that great ball strikers tend to have success on any style course, even ones where the course benefits longer hitters.  Doc isn’t a hammer with the driver like Burns or Scheffler, but he’s a great ball striker and he’s an elite player in this field.

Luke List (9000) – Another guy I had heavy in DFS and outright last week and he finished Top 10.  Not too bad.  He missed the cut here last year and didn’t play Sanderson in 2017 or 2018, but he did finish 2nd in 2017.   A long hitter who can be hit or miss, but I’ll play the upside.

Cameron Davis (8100) – A perfect course fit and a guy who has been making cuts at an impressive rate.  This guy is probably mispriced a bit and I expect him to make the cut and be in the conversation over the weekend.  I already have an outright on Davis at 45 to 1.

Tom Lewis (7700) – Put this one in the ‘gut play’ category as his recent form doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy.  With that said, post pandemic, I saw him get red hot at the WGC (2nd place finish) and at less than 5% expected ownership, he can win you a GPP.  Lewis SG metrics aren’t great but he does gain strokes on most of the field on Bermudagrass.

Stewart Cink (7600) – A guy I’ve been fitting into lineups for well over a year now, he’s just constantly overlooked.  With a relative lack of talent in the field, I’ll take the guy who finished 1st a few weeks back at Safeway and who had a 28th place finish his last time on this track.  Cink is yet another Bermudagrass specialist. 

Nick Taylor (7400) – Taylor hasn’t been very good this year, but he’s generally good OTT and on APP and has some upside at this price.  Don’t grab too many shares, but Taylor is in my player pool. 

J.B. Holmes (7000) – no idea what to expect from Holmes, as injuries have plagued him for quite some time.  With that said, he’s got the pedigree to compete on Sunday if he captures some of his old form.  Made the cut and finished 46th at Safeway, so at least we know he’s not in bad form. At this price, you need to take a shot in at least one lineup.

Tom Hoge (6900) – great with his irons and perhaps an underrated player.  He can really get hot and cold and that can lead to one too many missed cuts to make you comfortable.  However, he appears to have gained some consistency lately and I think he’s a great value if you need to dip into this range. 

Adam Schenk (6700) – A couple months back I had Schenk as the WinDaily SW and he hasn’t missed a cut since (coincidence?).  His weekend finishes aren’t exactly impressive but this guy appears to be a free square when it comes to making cuts.  He finished 7th here in 2019 and has made the cut all three times he’s played Sanderson.

Kelly Kraft (6400) – shout out to Mr. Joel Schrek @draftmasterflex for finding this gem last week.  This guy was full of eagles or birdie streaks last week and there’s no reason not to take another shot if you need to get down to this price range. 

Secret Weapon (sub7k/less than 5%) – Another solid hit last week, particularly due to a great Sunday which included an eagle and a birdie streak.  The SW hasn’t missed a cut, ever.  The run will end at some point, but all aboard the Secret Weapon Freight Train!

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The Northern Trust: Initial Picks

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The Northern Trust: Initial Picks

Welcome to round one of the FedEx Cup Playoffs where we will have a field of 125. With fewer in the field it will be very important to get all your picks through the cut, and with that in mind, I’ll likely be going for a more balanced approach this week (which will still allow you to grab a golfer from the elite price range). Tune into tonight’s Livestream at 8:30 for more on the Northern Trust (and subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast if you haven’t already). Be on the lookout for more PGA DFS content over at Win Daily Sports! Let’s get to The Northern Trust: Initial Picks. Note all prices for DraftKings.

Bryson DeChambeau (11100) – Bryson’s length will benefit him here and he won on this track in 2018. Also happens to be in good form with a 4th place finish at the PGA Championship.  Of all of the guys in the elite price range, this one is my favorite. 

Jason Day (9300) – Appears to be healthy and has been locking in Top 10 finishes in his last four tournaments, including a 4th place at the PGA Championship.  He has gained strokes APP for five tournaments in a row.  He was also 20th on this track in 2018 and finished 6th, 4th and 1st in the three years prior to 2018.

Daniel Berger (8900) – This price range has talent everywhere but I’m going to lean on a guy who I think has had some of the best form this entire year.  He gains strokes in every category and since the restart he is averaging over two strokes gained per round.  He also has a solid track record on this course.

Adam Scott (8400) – Surprised me with a 22nd  at the PGA Championship after an extremely long layoff (was his first action since the restart).  His track record on this course is impeccable.  Even for not having played much golf since the restart, Scott is ranked 36th in the FedEx Cup Standings and therefore well within striking distance of the top spot.

Billy Horschel (7900) – Probably should have won last week and finished 3rd on this track in 2018.  Perhaps the biggest thing going for Horschel is that his game consistently ramps up around playoff time.  He seemed loose and yet locked in last week.  I’ll see if I can catch him again in great form this week.

Matthew Wolff (7800) – He’s striking the ball too well to ignore at this price.  This guy could may have won the PGA Championship if he were able to sink a few 6 foot putts down the stretch.  Not afraid to hang with the big boys down the stretch on Sundays.

Ryan Palmer (7300) – This range puts us squarely in hit or miss territory and that’s exactly what you are getting with Palmer.  He’s been very good OTT and APP and if that stays the course then it will only require a decent putter for him to pay off his pricetag in a big way.  Be careful with being overweight on Palmer as when it goes bad, it usually goes very bad, but the upside is there.

Emiliano Grillo (7000) – Really want to do my best this week to not sink down into this range, but if I’m going to do it, I’m going to go with a great ball striker who can’t seem to figure out the putter (a hot putter can happen to anyone).  Grillo is in good form as of late and his last three at TPC Boston have all resulted in made cuts and that includes a 2nd place in 2016.

Talor Gooch (6500) – Ball striking has been good lately and since the restart he’s either good for a missed cut or a Top 25 finish.  If he obtains the latter he pays off his pricetag easily.  Hoping to ride the good form from last week.

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