As is oft the case when we preview the Valero Texas Open, part of the mind is in Texas and the other in Georgia. We got that question right in 2022. We successfully tipped J.J. Spaun at TPC San Antonio with huge odds of 150/1.
Being the penultimate week before The Masters, this week provides a conundrum determining the motivation of the players. Who is here to play this week? Who is getting the final tune-ups and experiments in before heading to Augusta National? Who is hoping to find a spark of form?
Rory McIlroy, who heads betting markets, likely ticks the latter box. However, it perhaps speaks to the caliber of the player when we regard him as being out of form yet he has finished worse than 24th just once in the last 11 months. Quietly, I hope that Rory has a rather dreadful performance this week whilst finding something with his irons. The story of The Masters is currently about what Scottie Scheffler has been doing. The less eyes on Rory heading to Augusta, the better it seems for his chances of completing the career grand slam. It would be a moment few would begrudge him, and the majority would love to see.
Recap of last week
In terms of last week, it was a story of near misses. At the Houston Open, Schmid missed a juicy +425 Top 20 bet by a single stroke. We cash a +188 ticket on him for finishing Top 40. On the DP World Tour, our favourite for the week Joost Luiten again showed his loving for the difficult golf course. He finished 11th, again just missing a place payout at +560. It was good news for our huge outsider Manu Gandas. The local player, selected at 400/1, cashed a massive Top 20 at +1100 and a Top 40 at +320. Like Luiten, he narrowly missed a place payout. That was paying a massive 80/1 just for the place.
Alongside all our Valero Texas Open betting tips, make sure to jump in to preview our juicy Masters futures for 2024 in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord. These are already delivering great closing line value.
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TPC San Antonio Golf Course Analysis
Aiding this week’s preview is that there is real heritage and history at the Valero Texas Open. The tournament is the 3rd oldest on the PGA Tour. It has been held in some form for over a century. This, along with the timing before The Masters, goes someway to explaining the relatively strong field we see this week.
This means we have a wealth of data to play with. Firstly, of note is that this is a relatively stern test. For the last 8 years, it has ranked in the harder 25% of golf courses. The more difficult years came in higher winds, which we may experience this week again.
The course ranks as 1st where SG: ATG is a predictive factor. On first glance, this might seem surprising considering the greens are a relatively large 6,400 sq ft on average. However, it should be noted that the majority of green complexes are multi-tiered. This effectively reduces the target area to the level where the pin is placed. Bunker play is a good place to start, with the course often ranking in the op 10 for difficulty from the multiple bunkers guarding each hole.
Additionally, this correlates to the uptick in SG: APP performance. Winners in this tournament have typically ranked in the top 10 for the week on approach. Interestingly, we see a wide split in where the approach shots are hit from. We see a large uptick in approach shots from under 125 yards and from over 250 yards. The latter relates to the long par 5s. Two are over 600 yards, with a 3rd playing at 591 yards.
Finally, driving accuracy is more helpful than distance. The course has ranked 12th or more in difficulty finding fairways over the last 4 tournaments.
TPC San Antonio Course Comps
Given the large number of prior tournaments held at TPC San Antonio, it is noteworthy for our preview that prior success at the Valero Texas Open has been a stronger predictor of success than at other courses. Course specialists like Jordan Spieth and Charley Hoffman demonstrate this, finding success here even when in poor form.
With Spieth, it also pays to note a multitude of players with Texas links have done well here. Having a connection to the state is seen in winners Spieth, Landry, Bowditch, and Walker.
Perhaps the best correlation can be found at another desert course venue: The American Express. Andrew Landry held a win and 2nd at The American Express prior to his Texas Open victory. Other winners continue the story. Kevin Chappell has a 6th and an 8th there prior to his win. He also holds a 3rd and 4th at the Valero Texas Open for good measure. Brendan Steele had a 2nd and a 6th there, Zach Johnson a 3rd and 8th, and Hoffman a 2nd and a 9th.
Another Greg Norman design in El Cameleon is also useful. Charley Hoffman has won at both, whilst John Huh and Matt Kuchar provide further links between the two courses.
Further connections can be found to leaderboards at TPC Summerlin and TPC Scottsdale. Again, this meets the sense check. Both provide desert golf courses with little rough if just missing the fairway, but potentially significant penalties if straying too wide.
Texas Open Weather Preview
It is a tricky week for weather at the Valero Texas Open and, unfortunately, some differing weather forecasts make this more difficult to preview.
Essentially, I use a number of different weather models to compile the most likely weather outcome. These are weighted accordingly depending on accuracy resolution of the model.
Currently, the best answer I have is that Thursday PM/Friday AM wave may get the best of it. Thursday PM now looks the calmest winds on several models. Friday sees a big increase in winds, so scoring on Thursday could be imperative. There is also a chance Friday PM presents higher winds, which would further aid the case.
I do think it is worth building a few weather specific lines for PGA DFS. I’d recommend with a split of 30% PM/AM 10% AM/PM and the remaining 60% being mixed. Those who get the weather right could possess a decent advantage this week.
I recommend joining WinDaily Sports using our current deal and checking the WinDaily Premium Discord. We will have the latest weather forecasts with our premium models right up to first tee-times.
Texas Open Preview Golf Betting Tips
If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Valero Texas Open, you can preview these in this article here or in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
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