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The Cat (no hat) is back. Here kitty kitty. Tiger Woods will be prowling the grounds at Riviera this week. The word is out that he is not limping and is smoking his drives. At a 6500 salary on DK raise your hand if you will put Tiger “in just one lineup.” OK, everyone over 45 raised their hand and anyone with gray streaks in their hair was fist pumping.

He has records that will never be broken in golf. Ever. Scottie Scheffler, the current #1 would have to stay #1 every single week for the next 12.5 years to top Tiger. 12.5 YEARS. You can’t help it, the nostalgia is to strong. If you were fortunate enough to watch him back in the day you are hoping for just one more brilliant week on a golf course he has played since a child. His golf acumen was brilliant. Brilliance is what the golf staff at Win Daily Sports strives for and delivers. We work tirelessly to bring you the best intel. The Genesis Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden leverage gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.

Courses and Horses

Riviera is a shot makers dream course. Period. Golfers will have to place their tee shot on the right side (or left) of the fairway, then come in to the right or left or deep on the greens. The Masters is a true comp course to Riviera. The 6 golfers you pick should be creative in their thought process and execution. The proximity buckets are 150-175 and 150-200 and 200+. The best approach players are Glover, Scheffler, Hovland and Cole. The best putters here are Homa, Hadwin ,Montgomery, Hoge and Svennson

Recent Results

Our Frisky Biscuit hit again, it hit hard and deep. Our Biscuit finished in 12th place with a 6K salary and an aggregate owner percentage of 2.6. That’s 2.6 % which means if he was in your lineup you just passed 98% of your competition in a one on one or 1V1. That is crucial in building your lineups for a takedown. The Frisky Biscuit is 14-1 now for the last 15. Our Biscuit picks will be released on Wednesday evening in the Win Daily Sports Discord channel. It is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuit will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for mild temps and light winds through Friday. Early winds are 3 mph up to 9 mph around 4 in the afternoon. There may be a light rain Wednesday evening. Hopefully we can finally have a PGA tourney where weather doesn’t dictate the outcome!

Let’s take a look at the Genesis Ownership Projections to increase your ROI and gain leverage on the field.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Scheffler, Scottie29.411500
Thomas, Justin23.89100
Morikawa, Collin21.49500
Scott,Adam20.88200
Cantlay, Patrick20.69300
Burns, Sam20.28700
Homa, Max19.39800
Aberg, Ludvig19.19200
McIlroy, Rory18.911200
Schauffele, Xander18.610100
Young, Cameron17.78500
Hovland, Viktor17.510000
Spieth, Jordan15.49000
Theegala, Sahith14.98600
Zalatoris,Will13.37900
Clark, Wyndham13.28300
Finau, Tony12.78900
Hossler, Beau12.67000
Fitzpatrick, Mathew11.78400
Matsuyama, Hideki11.67400
Kitayama, Kurt 11.46900
Hojgaard, Nicolai11.17800
Fleetwood, Tommy10.48800
Poston,  JT9.97800
Kim, Si Woo9.47600
An, Byeong8.87600
McCarthy, Denny8.77500
English, Harris8.37000
Hoge, Tom7.96700
Bradley, Keegan7.77900
Hadwin, Adam7.67100
Taylor, Nick7.57200
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 7.48100
Day, Jason7.38000
List, Luke7.26600
Henley, Russell7.27700
Cole, Eric7.17700
Conners, Corey7.17300
Davis, Cameron7.07200
Grillo, Emiliano6.86900
Im, Sungjae6.38000
Straka, Sepp6.07100
Rodgers, Patrick5.46800
Kirk, Chris5.27500
Griffin, Ben5.26400
Harman, Brian4.97300
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan4.96700
Schenk, Adam4.86700
Montgomery, Taylor4.76800
Svensson, Adam4.76600
Moore, Taylor4.66500
Hoffman, Charley4.56200
Woods, Tiger4.46500
Kucher, Matt4.36400
Yu, Kevin (Chun-an)4.26300
Putnam, Andrew4.16600
Fowler, Rickie3.47400
Hardy, Nick3.36100
Ryder, Sam3.26000
Power, Seamus2.96000
Woodland, Gary2.76100
Todd, Brendon2.66800
Glover, Lucas2.26500
Hughes, Mackenzie1.86300
Spaun, JJ1.76200
Dunlap,  Nick 1.66400
Smalley, Alex 1.56300
Hodges, Lee 1.06200
Murray, Grayson0.66100
Johnson, Chase0.06000

The Genesis Ownership Projections are accurate as of 6:29 EST. *****Top Tier Golfers may/will show a higher % by lock.

*******Leverage Plays******

Each week we will have 5 leverage plays posted for you. Here are this weeks candidates:

Upper Tier: P Cantlay

Mid Tier: Will Z

Low Tier: C Davis

Bottom Feeder: Hoge

My Picks for The Genesis

Top Tier: Burns

Mid Tier: Theegala

Low Tier: Davis

Out in Left Play: CBEZ

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Scott

FR Leader: Poston (contrarian)

What to listen to

Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well. The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports. Last week Stix of Stix Picks picked up 10,000 in a golf contest and helped a new Win Daily member win 6,000. It’s on Tuesday evenings on Apple/Spotify and is certainly worth 30 minutes of your time. Could be worth 10,000.

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by DraftMasterFlex Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire, so is Stix Picks! They both continue to defy the odds with consistent winning along with Spencer of Tee off Sports.

***** Parting Shots *****

Superman was feeling a bit randy so he asked Batman where he could find some action. Batman told him that Wonder Woman was the best sex in comic land. Superman said, “we’re good friends, I don’t want to take advantage” He took off flying and met The Green Lantern and asked him where can I find some action. The GL told him Wonder Woman was absolutely incredible.

Superman relayed that they were good friends and flew off, although he became frustrated by the fact she got around a lot. Using his X-ray vision he spotted Wonder Woman in her apartment, naked, lying face up on the bed. He thought, I’m faster than a speeding bullet, I could be there and gone before she knows it.

With a blur and a sonic boom he was there, in, finished and gone. Wonder Woman gazed up at the sky and asked, “what in the hell was that?” “I don’t know said the invisible man, but my ass is killing me.”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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It’s all Sam Ryders fault. He scored an ace at the WMO on the iconic 16th, the coliseum hole. Patrons went nuts and threw thousands of glass beer bottles onto the green, into the bunkers, and generally where no bottles should go. The video of the spectacle went viral. The PGA learned that thousands of non fans watched the bedlam and probably thought wow, this isn’t Uncle Joe’s old game anymore and new fans were born. Over 800,000 will attend this week. The CYA (cover your ass) lawyers had the PGA outlaw glass containers on the 16th. The vendors had to sell all the beer in cups, anyone coming up to the 16th had to lose their bottle and pour it into a cup.

This is when beer snakes were born. Thousands of cups were stacked up high with one, then competing snakes to see who could get theirs the highest. Patrons would chug their cups of beer and claim it was a sacrifice to the beer snake to help him grow faster. Right. Our expertise doesn’t concern beer snakes. Our expertise is designed to help your DFS bankroll reach the heavens and beyond. The AT&T Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden leverage gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.

This will be my last Belize report before heading home to Super Sunday. I had a phenomenal trip except for a spear gun incident and look forward to returning in July. We met a Canadian couple who were first timers here and the wife was gushing about what a “magical” place this is. Maybe that’s why I’ve returned every year for over 44 years.

Courses and Horses

I hate to disappoint all of you but we’re down to just one course to play. It comes with shot link. Plus all the metrics you can scrape and load. Thank God. This is simply a good drivers course with tougher than usual approach shots. The greens are fast, they will be running at a 12 on the stimp meter. Faster. The proximity buckets we want to watch are 150-175, and 175-200. The best approach players are Scheffler, Cole, Xander, Hovland, Glover and Woodland. Putters on this particular surface include Montgomery, Ramey, Burns and Ryder.

Recent Results

Our Frisky Biscuit hit again on both our picks last week at 1.5 and 2.6 % ownership and a 6K salary range. We will not be padding our 13-1 record because there was no cut. Patrick Cantlay was our first round leader pick. Thomas Detry holed out from the rough more than 70 yards away to barely squeeze by Cantlay. Sam Ryder was outstanding leverage for us last week Our Biscuit picks will be released on Wednesday evening in the Win Daily Sports Discord channel. It is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuits will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for colder temps Thursday afternoon and pretty decent weather Friday afternoon. We like a Thursday am/ Friday pm wave. Stay tuned to Win Daily Sports Discord for updates, especially on Wednesday evening.

Let’s take a look at the WMO Ownership Projections to increase your ROI and gain leverage on the field.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Scheffler, Scottie37.711600
Thomas, Justin29.410000
An, Byeong19.28800
Homa, Max17.69800
Poston,  JT17.48900
Spieth, Jordan17.49500
Burns, Sam17.29600
Hadwin, Adam14.48000
Im, Sungjae13.59300
Clark, Wyndham13.39000
Matsuyama, Hideki12.88400
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 12.78600
Kim, Si Woo12.47900
Theegala, Sahith12.39100
Bhatia, Akshay 12.17800
Conners, Corey11.98100
Lee, Min Woo11.88700
Cole, Eric11.48500
Hossler, Beau11.38000
Scott,Adam10.98300
Yu, Kevin (Chun-an)9.97300
Fitzpatrick, Mathew8.89400
Young, Cameron8.49200
Harman, Brian8.37800
Hubbard, Mark8.17400
Kitayama, Kurt 7.97200
Lowry, Shane7.97700
Mitchell, Keith7.67500
Noren, Alexander7.57900
Grillo, Emiliano7.47500
Fowler, Rickie7.28200
Detry,Thomas 6.97600
Van Rooyen, Erik6.87100
McCarthy, Denny6.67600
Berger, Daniel6.37700
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan5.97400
Rai, Aaron5.67100
List, Luke5.37100
Ryder, Sam5.06900
English, Harris4.97500
Hoge, Tom4.97300
Ghim, Doug4.96800
Putnam, Andrew4.87600
Eckroat, Austin 4.37000
Kim, Michael4.37100
Horschel, Billy4.27100
Montgomery, Taylor4.17400
Taylor, Nick4.17200
Svensson, Adam3.97000
Knapp, Jake3.96900
Kucher, Matt3.77000
Woodland, Gary3.77000
Schenk, Adam3.67200
Glover, Lucas3.47200
Stallings, Scott3.36700
Lee, KH3.36900
Lashley, Nate3.26900
Todd, Brendon3.27400
Spaun, JJ3.16700
Hardy, Nick3.16800
Bramlett, Joseph2.86700
Moore, Taylor2.87300
Hadley, Chesson2.67000
Thompson, Davis 2.66900
Griffin, Ben2.47000
Vegas, Jhonattan2.46500
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)2.36500
Fox, Ryan2.27200
Suh, Justin 2.26600
Norrman, Vincent2.26800
Murray, Grayson1.96600
Bjork, Alexander1.96900
Hodges, Lee 1.76700
Wu, Brandon 1.76800
Young, Carson1.66400
Kohles, Ben1.56600
McNealy, Maverick1.56500
Kizzire, Patton1.46800
Perez, Victor 1.36700
Power, Seamus1.36700
Yuan, Carl1.36400
Cauley, Bud1.26000
Dumont de Chassart, Adrien1.26400
Duncan, Tyler1.26500
Sigg, Greyson 1.26700
Champ, Cameron1.16600
Higgo, Garrick1.16400
Shelton, Robby1.16500
Stevens, Sam1.16600
Gotterup, Christopher1.16800
Schmid, Matti (Matthias)0.96500
MacIntyre, Robert 0.87400
Martin, Ben0.86600
NeSmith, Matthew0.86400
Ramey, Chad0.86100
Snedeker, Brandt0.86100
Moore, Ryan0.86300
Dahmen, Joel0.76300
Lower, Justin0.76300
Pan, CT0.76100
Valimaki,Sami 0.76600
Blair, Zac0.66100
Cink, Stewart0.66300
Hoffman, Charley0.66500
Johnson, Zack0.66300
Laird, Martin0.66200
Malnati, Peter0.66200
Reavie, Chez0.66200
Wu, Dylan0.66600
Buckley, Hayden0.56000
Griffin, Lanto0.56300
Novak, Andrew0.56200
Villegas, Camilo0.56400
Gordon, Will0.46400
Tarren, Callum0.46200
Baddeley, Aaron0.36300
Echavarria, Nico0.36100
Holmes, JB0.36000
Donald, Luke0.26100
Lipsky, David0.26100
Merritt, Troy0.26200
Alexander, Tyson0.16000
Brehm, Ryan0.06000
Chappell, Kevin0.06000
Galletti, Nicolo0.06000
Hall, Harry0.06200
Knous, Jim0.06000
Mueller, Jesse0.06000
Stadler, Kevin0.06000
Taylor, Ben0.06000

The WMO Ownership Projections are accurate as of 6:29 EST. Top Tier Golfers may/will show a higher % by lock.

*******Leverage Plays******

Each week we will have 5 leverage plays posted for you. Here are this weeks candidates:

Upper Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: Conners ,

Low Tier: Yu, List

Bottom Feeder: Doug Ghim

My Picks for The WMO

Top Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: Conners

Low Tier: Rai

Out in Left Play: Ryder

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Poston

FR Leader: Conners (Contrarian)

What to listen to

Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well. The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports.

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire, so is Stix Picks! Deep Dive Dave hit a 125-1 longshot who brought home the mega bucks.

Spencer @ Tee Off Sports hit a 100-1 shot on Clark after making a huge sacrifice to some nature god….. Missing your pet? Amazing work by some serious talent.

***** Parting Shots *****

Two good friends are talking about a woman one of them just met. He was mesmerized by her beauty and she was the hottest thing he’d ever seen. A smoke show. They had met casually a few times and he finally asked and got a date with her. His friend said you look stressed, what’s up? He said every time I look at her I get a raging erection. Every time. What do I do? His buddy pondered for a moment and said I got this. Take some duct tape and wrap your johnson tightly to your leg. Problem solved!

After the date the one friend was concerned because his friend looked miserable. He said what in the hell happened? Well, he said- she opened her door in a very short almost see through dress and then I kicked her in the face.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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TPC Scottsdale hosts our WM Phoenix Open betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the WM Phoenix Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of TPC Scottsdale, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the WM Phoenix Open golf betting tips below.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

As always, the honourable mentions who failed to make the betting card at the WM Phoenix Open. Sungjae Im was heavily considered. He had a much better end to 2023 than many gave him credit for. He also holds excellent course history here, with prior performance proven a strong indicator for success. Some of his poor performance can be attributed to reported illness last week. However, losing on approach for three consecutive tournaments was sufficient to see him narrowly excluded.

Austin Eckroat looks to be a real talent and one I am monitoring closely, as is Vincent Norrman. Tom Kim also took a fair amount of my attention this week. Chiefly, his excellent performances at TPC Summerlin should translate well to this venue. Typically a very good putter, I have been somewhat put off by his start to 2024. Having lost quite significantly putting at all three tournaments this year and some indifferent iron play, I have started to develop concerns whether there may be a deeper underlying problem there. He remains a “wait and see” for now.

WM Phoenix Open Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Posted in WinDaily Discord Mon 5 Feb at 8pm ET

Byeong-Hun An
2pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Eric Cole – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Favourite
1.5pt E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adam Hadwin
1.5pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Emiliano Grillo – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Kurt Kitayama
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +320 (Bet365)

Harris English
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +320 (Bet365)

Sam Ryder
0.5pt E/W +15000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +150 (Bet365)

J.J. Spaun
0.5pt E/W +16000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +175 (Bet365)

Player Profiles

A real question raises this week with Xander and Viktor withdrawing. The top of the board is left looking somewhat barren as a result. Even more so with DFS, where pricing can not be adjusted after it is set. If you were to take a stance on either Scottie Scheffler or Justin Thomas, I really couldn’t begrudge you doing so. In doing so, you would need to go all in with your preferred selection. Certainly, it is the simplest way to view the week.

Scheffler holds the most appeal to me of the two. He is quite easily the best in the world over the last two years from 150-200 yards. It is his strongest approach bucket. No wonder he is looking to complete a three-peat here this week! Of course, the question is the putter. Should he putt at anything above field average he likely wins here. Thomas for me looks too short in the market at current odds of 10/1. Yes, he has been much improved than a morbid 2023. He does very well in 150-200 yard approach shots, but historically struggles over 200 yards. He should be better priced at fair odds of 14/1 in my models.

As such, we are able to speculate on some longer shots again this week. This allows us to deploy 30 units, but take an expanded selection of 8 golfers in our WM Phoenix Open betting tips.

Byeong-Hun An

With question marks and short odds around all those after Scheffler and JT, we arrive at Benny An. I did go back and forth between Sungjae Im and Byeong-Hun An here. As mentioned in the preview, the atypical iron play from Sungjae saw fellow Korean Benny An preferred.

A resurgent end to 2023 has put him on many people’s radar. A large part of that has come down to finding some real gains with his putter. He has now gained putting in 8/9 tournaments since July 2023. Previously, this was one of the weaker parts of his game.

Plenty long off the tee and accurate enough to get the job done at TPC Scottsdale, he is a big gainer on approach from 100-200 yards. This is the best approach ranges for him. It should come as no surprise in betting that he holds a good record at the WM Phoenix Open. He has starts of a 6th on debut followed by 23-20-9-53.

He also possesses a good record at TPC San Antonio, with a 7th in 2019 and 6th last year in just 4 starts. This former winner of the BMW PGA Championship (Wentworth also typically rewarding ball-strikers) is trending towards a debut PGA Tour win soon.

Eric Cole – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Favourite

Cole proved to be an easy bet for me this week. Continually disrespected by books and DFS providers alike, it seems only a victory will suffice.

Being neither overly long off the tee nor accurate with the driver, Eric Cole’s game is built around his excellent approach play. For this golf course, which SG: OTT is not hugely predictive, it seems a perfect fit. He is the 6th best in this field over the last 12 months for SG: APP. He also particularly excels in the key 150-200 yard approach bucket. He again ranks 6th in this field in the past year in that range. It is the strongest distance for him, followed narrowly by 100-150 yards. 72% of approach shots are predicted in that range this week.

Missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open may have taken him off many people’s radar. Fact is, Torrey Pines is perhaps one of the worst courses on tour for Cole. It marked his first missed cut since May 2023, a run of 18 tournaments. He bounced right back to form at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, finishing 14th. He was also 4th best in the tournament for SG: APP for good measure. A 3rd in Las Vegas at TPC Summerlin in October is another hint that this may be the week for Eric Cole.

Adam Hadwin

Another opportunity for us to roll with the desert fox this week! Again, Hadwin ticks the box in the key approach range of 150-200 yards and is an excellent putter. Hadwin’s affinity with desert golf was again on full display at the American Express. It is a tournament he holds a great record, which he only reaffirmed with a 6th place finish two weeks ago.

His form at TPC Scottsdale is also solid. 10th last year came in a very strong field when this was still officially a designated signature special event. Prior to that, he had finishes of 17-12-43-44-40-50-26-10 here. Further adding to the desert form was a 4th at the Valero Texas Open last year, 2nd and 10th at TPC Summerlin in 2023, and a previous 5th and 8th at Colonial.

Emiliano Grillo – WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips Best Value

Grillo has long been the hero of the ball-striking truthers. The perennial excellent approach player who has struggled with the putter. If only all could find the same solutions Grillo did in 2023.

Somehow, Grillo really found something with the putter last year. Sufficiently so that he is actually the 31st best putter in this field over the past 12 months, 15th in the last 6 months, and 5th over the past 90 days. The ball-striking is still impressive. Particularly, the key range of 150-200 yards where is ranks 11th in this field over the last year.

A winner at Colonial in 2023 again hints desert golf should suit. He also holds a 3rd, 19th, and 8th at that course. As does some sneaky DP World Tour form, where he finished 4th in a very strong field at Jumeirah Golf Estates for the season ending tournament of the 2015 Race to Dubai.

Starting 2024 with results of 7-20-14 in the past 3 weeks bodes well for another victory shortly.

Kurt Kitayama

A great option as a boom-or-bust play, Kitayama always feels a bit all or nothing for me. He is the type of player that makes the most of his chances, proving he can mix it with the best when he finds himself in contention.

2022 and 2023 provide plenty of evidence of his relentless attitude at the biggest events. 2022 saw him 2nd at the Scottish Open and 7th at the Italian Open, both with strong fields. The latter of course was a DP World Tour event, but was well attended due to being the impending host of the Ryder Cup. 2023 of course brought the win at Bay Hill, far from the worst comp to TPC Scottsdale. He complimented that with a 5th at Austin Country Club in the match-play and 4th at the PGA Championship.

Sticking to theme, Kitayama does his best approach play over 150 yards. His wedges are typically his weakest aspect, so gaining plenty on approach last week at Pebble Beach is seen positively.

With just one look at this course, he managed a 23rd in an elevated event here last year gaining plenty with the putter and ball-striking. The putter will be key for him as always, but the performance on the greens here in 2023 provides plenty of promise at 80/1.

Harris English

An excellent putter who is often held back by his lack of distance off the tee, English has shown some decent return to form over the past 6 months. Included in that was an 8th at the US Open, with LACC again far from the worst you could do for guidance here given Rickie Fowler’s performance at both.

Previously he has a 3rd, 9th, 15th, and 16th at this tournament. A 12th at Colonial last year came the week after a missed cut, hinting at the type of course that may best suit his game. He also holds a runner-up and 5th on that course.

Of course, he does his best approach work in the 150+ yards buckets. A 3rd at the Wells Fargo Championship and 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2023 again point to his best work coming from distance.

Sam Ryder

Flagged as one of the highest value plays in my models, Ryder looks well over priced at 150/1. 20th here when an elevated event followed a 23rd the year prior, where he has never missed a cut here in 5 attempts.

Of no surprise, he again pops in the 150-200 yard range. He sits just behind Eric Cole in 7th for SG: APP in that key range over the past 12 months. For total approach, he ranks 6th in this field over the last 6 months.

The 3rd at TPC San Antonio last year was very nearly a win for him. TPC Summerlin is also ticked, with a 3rd, 18th and two 28th place finishes most recently. He has always been at field average or gained putting at this tournament, demonstrating a sense of comfort on these greens above other venues. Ryder looks worth a small look in win markets, but equally great value in Top 20 and Top 40 finish markets.

J.J. Spaun

Finally, we conclude our WM Phoenix Open golf betting tips with a speculative look at Spaun.

Obviously, the venue of his 2022 Valero Texas Open win is well correlated to here. Large green complexes featuring the same grass, near identical distance metrics, and desert waste areas waiting to catch your ball if you stray massively offline. He also holds a 26th and a 22nd at TPC San Antonio most recently. Spaun has a 10th and a pair of 15th placed finishes in 7 starts at TPC Summerlin to his name.

It should be no surprise Spaun found immediate liking to this venue, featuring 4th in just his 9th PGA Tour start. Of most promise, he has always putted well on these greens. He has always gained or been at field average in all his appearances. In this weaker field in 2024, he is worth a bet at the long 200/1 odds on offer.

Join Team Audience on the PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and reading my WM Phoenix Open betting tips. Make sure you are subscribed to the WinDaily Sports YouTube channel. We love seeing you in the chat to help Team Audience live draft a DFS line-up against us.

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TPC Scottsdale hosts our WM Phoenix Open preview

Another week and another preview to deep-dive into as the PGA Tour moves to Arizona for the WM Phoenix Open!

The PGA Tour were a bit unlucky after what can only be described as a somewhat lacklustre finish to the first proper signature event of the season. Offsetting that was a rather remarkable round from Wyndham Clark. You can hardly begrudge him his victory after an impressive round of 60, despite the reduction to 54 holes to hurricane like weather. Also, a huge shoutout to one of our WinDaily team Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) who successfully tipped him at 100/1!

Although we correctly predicted the event would only be held over 54 holes, we ourselves were a bit unlucky to get on the wrong side of the weather. Although Thursday was tough as predicted, Friday ended up playing much easier than forecasts foreshadowed. This resulted in a substantial edge developing for players who played the more sheltered Spyglass Hill on Thursday. We had unfortunately gone the other way, expecting higher forecast winds on Friday to prove difficult on the highly exposed Pebble Beach Golf Links.

These things can and do happen. Part of covering any live sporting event is the unpredictability and volatility that naturally enters that territory. But, isn’t that part of the beauty? And, this was the first tournament this year where we didn’t really end up with anyone in true contention. We trust the process and continue what we do best, as we preview the WM Phoenix Open.

TPC Scottsdale Course Analysis

Having been held at TPC Scottsdale, since 1987, we again have one of those beautiful weeks where there is plenty of easy data available to preview the WM Phoenix Open. It only take a cursory glance at previous leaderboards to realise a couple things. Firstly, with several multiple winners here course history is relatively sticky. Secondly, that this is a course dominated by good ball strikers.

Names such as Scheffler, Matsuyama, Koepka, Fowler, Thomas, and Mickelson all hint at some of the best iron players on the Tour. They also have a certain amount of grit to them, often finding themselves in contention in the biggest of events. Despite losing signature status, still remains amongst the more iconic events on the schedule.

Of note in the data is the heavy skewing we see in approach distances. Golfers will see between 8-9 approach shots on average from 150-200 yards. Despite being an above average length par 71 at 7,261 yards, roll-out tends to give a helping hand to shorter hitters. Likewise, the wide fairways and fairly benign rough mean you can pull driver often without actually providing much advantage. The main thing off the tee is to avoid the big miss and the risks in the natural waste areas. Your approach is the way to separate yourself from the pack.

Huge green complexes average over 7,000 sq ft. This sees an increased importance on not just finding the green, but the right area and shelf on the surfaces. Putting does receive a higher weighting at this course. A combination of needing to lag putt, avoid long three putts, and make your birdie opportunities see SG: Putting as a good indicator of potential success.

Course Comps for our WM Phoenix Open Preview

As mentioned, prior form at TPC Scottsdale does tend to be a good predictor of future success here. Accordingly, you should give a higher weighting to previous performance on this track than at other venues. Likewise, if a golfer has had several opportunities to preview this course and never really performed well you should take this into consideration at the WM Phoenix Open.

Other desert form is useful to consider at this event. TPC Summerlin, host of the Shriners Children’s Open in neighbouring Las Vegas Nevada, is a decent enough guide. You will see similar approach metrics to those at the WM Phoenix Open, and a preview into a golfers ability in desert altitude.

Additionally, Colonial Country Club and TPC San Antonio in Texas bear consideration. The latter, host of the Valero Texas Open, is a particularly good guide. TPC San Antonio also features multi-tiered Poa Trivialis greens. They also have near identical distances throughout the course. Average par 4/5 length being 469 vs 467 yards and average par 3 length being 188 vs 183 yards. Fairway widths are 31.3 on average vs 31.5 yards at TPC Scottsdale.

Finally, The American Express provides a nice combination of desert golf and recent form. It is worth considering as guide for your WM Phoenix Open preview.

Weather

We saw the beauty of the volatility that comes with the weather last week. Although we nailed the call early in the week that the Pebble Beach Pro-Am would be a 54 hole event, Friday brought far less rain and winds than had been originally forecast.

Certainly, it always poses a risk to take a stance when it comes to mother nature. However, the risk so often proves worthwhile. Bookmakers are notoriously slow to react to weather forecasts in adjusting their pricing. Likewise, DFS players can benefit in significant leverage on the rest of the field when you get the weather right and have constructed your line-ups to benefit.

It does seem quite possible a weather edge may develop this week as well. Thursday looks to be cold and overcast all day. Rain is predicted in mid to late afternoon. This will make the course play longer, but also mean the greens will play softer. The heaviest wind gusts are currently forecast in the morning. Friday looks to be calm but still cold. There is little variation in wind gusts forecast throughout the day. Saturday looks to bring quite heavy rain, which could prove difficult for any very short hitters who aren’t excellent with longer approach shots. Sunday should be sunny, but a very cold morning to start.

If I were to take a guess, those going out Thursday afternoon may see the best of conditions. There is certainly a risk that flips again this week. The rains could well be accompanied by either an uptick or continuation of the morning winds. As such, I’d definitely recommend building some contrarian lines this week to cover both angles in some capacity.

WM Phoenix Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips and player profiles for the WM Phoenix Open, you can preview these here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.
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This week we are still in California at iconic Pebble Beach. There’s more weather coming in that will add variables to the final equation, Sunday they are expecting wind gusts to be at 40 MPH on a course with the tiniest greens on the PGA. Rain or shine or hurricane, Win Daily Sports has the tools and experts to assist you with roster construction. The AT&T Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.

I will be in Belize this week and next for a working vacation. I’m using up my scuba permits. Only 10% of the Belize barrier reef has been researched. It goes to 218 feet deep, 27 miles long and has over five hundred species of sea life. I’ll be visiting them almost daily.

Courses and Horses

We have two courses, Spyglass and Pebble Beach. The players split the two courses over the first two days and play Pebble on Saturday and Sunday. There is no more Saturday pro-am, there is a tiny field you may glimpse on Thursday. Proximity Buckets will be concentrated on 100-125 yards and less so over 200 yards. Players who do well are Cole, Glover, Hideki and Morikawa. The greens are Poa. Some of the best putters statistically are McNealy, Day, Sungjae and Homa.

Recent Results

Our Frisky Biscuit hit on both our picks last week at 2.8 and 3 % ownership and 6K salary range. This brings our record to 13-1. Our only loss was Jake Knapp last week. Jake Knapp just finished in third place this week at the Farmers. Last week in our NEW leverage addition to this article our bottom of the barrel pick was Nate Lashley. He was owned by 1% of the field. He finished 3rd. That folks, is bigly leverage. Our Biscuit picks will be released on Wednesday evening in the Win Daily Sports Discord channel. It is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuits will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for cold temperatures no higher than 53 degrees. rain on Thursday and Friday and possibly Saturday. The winds are scheduled to be 25MPH with gusts to 40. Stay tuned to Win Daily Sports Discord for updates, especially on Wednesday evening.

Let’s take a look at the AT&T Ownership Projections to increase your ROI and gain leverage on the field.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Homa, Max24.49200
Schauffele, Xander22.610000
Hovland, Viktor20.710200
Spieth, Jordan20.69400
Scheffler, Scottie19.911400
Thomas, Justin18.99600
McIlroy, Rory18.311500
Morikawa, Collin17.59100
Cantlay, Patrick17.39700
Cole, Eric15.97300
Fleetwood, Tommy14.18600
Poston,  JT14.17900
Aberg, Ludvig12.98600
An, Byeong12.98000
Im, Sungjae12.38500
Henley, Russell12.27800
Finau, Tony11.78800
Fitzpatrick, Mathew11.78200
Scott,Adam11.47600
Hossler, Beau11.37800
McCarthy, Denny10.97500
Harman, Brian10.47600
Day, Jason9.68400
Burns, Sam9.58900
Hojgaard, Nicolai9.28100
Kirk, Chris8.97500
Clark, Wyndham8.17400
Todd, Brendon8.17000
Davis, Cameron8.16700
Young, Cameron7.98700
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 7.98000
Jaeger, Stephan 7.87300
Taylor, Nick7.87200
Theegala, Sahith7.77900
Hadwin, Adam7.47300
Matsuyama, Hideki7.28300
McNealy, Maverick7.26200
Yu, Kevin (Chun-an)6.97200
Bradley, Keegan6.77700
Putnam, Andrew6.66800
Hoge, Tom6.36700
Rose, Justin5.97500
English, Harris5.97100
Rodgers, Patrick5.46900
Hubbard, Mark5.46300
Kitayama, Kurt 5.36600
Conners, Corey5.27700
Noren, Alexander5.27200
Montgomery, Taylor5.26800
Grillo, Emiliano5.16800
Glover, Lucas5.16500
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan4.86900
Kim, Si Woo4.67400
Hughes, Mackenzie4.26400
Straka, Sepp4.17000
List, Luke4.16500
Mitchell, Keith4.07100
Schenk, Adam3.96700
Wu, Brandon 3.96300
Kucher, Matt3.96200
Power, Seamus3.96000
Ryder, Sam3.86000
Svensson, Adam3.76600
Detry,Thomas 3.76600
Griffin, Ben3.56400
Pavon, Matthieu3.47100
Moore, Taylor3.46300
Dunlap,  Nick 3.26900
Hardy, Nick2.96300
Smalley, Alex 2.86200
Fowler, Rickie2.77400
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)2.56100
Van Rooyen, Erik2.37000
Simpson, Webb1.86100
Murray, Grayson1.76500
Hodges, Lee 1.76000
Malnati, Peter1.76000
Spaun, JJ1.56200
Riley, Davis 0.96100
Buckley, Hayden*no ownno price

The AT&T Ownership Projections are accurate as of 5:19 EST. Top Tier Golfers may/will show a higher % by lock.

********Leverage Plays******

Each week we will have 5 leverage plays posted for you. Here are this weeks candidates:

Upper Tier: Cantlay lowest owned in the 9K tier

Upper Mid: M Fitzpatrick just a bad weather god, good owner %

Mid Tier: CBEZ fits the course even in a typhoon

Low Tier: Adam Svensson like the metrics/ownership

My picks for The AT&T (Last week every pick made the cut)

Top Tier: Hovland

Mid Tier: Hossler

Low Tier: CBEZ

Out in Left Play: Ryder

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Cantlay

FR Leader: CBEZ (contrarian)

What to listen to

Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well. The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports.

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire, so is Stix Picks! Deep Dive Dave hit a 125-1 longshot who brought home the mega bucks. Week after week. Amazing.

***** Parting Shots *****

A friend of mine, Jim, went through a nasty bitter divorce. He gave up the house and quite a bit more. He made arrangements to pick up his last belongings while she was not there. Jim told me that he saw her walking down the sidewalk as he was leaving the subdivision and that he wanted to run her over. I looked at him and said, “I guess that gives a whole new meaning to the phrase “I’d hit that!”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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Pebble Beach betting tips provided by DeepDiveGolf

Before getting into our betting tips for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Pebble Beach Golf Links and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into some of my process behind the Pebble Beach golf betting tips below.

It was fantastic finally securing a winner after a month of runner-ups and close finishes on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. To do so at the Farmers Insurance Open at 125/1 with Matthieu Pavon only made it even sweeter.

You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.

Of those unlucky to miss out on the card this week, Jordan Spieth heads the list. The course history is obvious, as is the resurgence to form, and his correlated win at Harbor Town. However, the weather raises concern with the inherent volatility that this will bring. Likewise, with just the one start in 2024 question marks remain whether the improvement in performance is here to stay. He was simply a tad too short when compared to my preferred option at the top of the market.

Russell Henley was considered at 50/1, although the Sony Open was again a reminder that he may struggle to get across the line as often as he should. I preferred to emphasise putting more this week as well, which contributed to his exclusion along with Chris Kirk at 80/1. Finally, Noren holds obvious abilities in the wind. He was tough to leave out. He struggles in the key approach range of 100-150 yards. Additionally, he has missed the cut here twice when hitting the ball relatively well. I’d have likely taken him at 100/1 rather than the 80s on offer.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips

Suggested Staking
Updated Monday 29 January 8:00am

Max Homa – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Favourite
5pts E/W +1800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Adam Hadwin – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +275 (Bet365)

Andrew Putnam
1pt E/W +11000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Speculative Play
0.5pt Straight Forecast Homa to beat Schauffele +20000 (Bet365)

Player Profiles

Max Homa – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Favourite

Once I saw the weather forecast, there was one name I wanted to head my betting card if we could get the right number. Having opened at just 15/1 in the UK, I was very pleased to see Max Homa open at 22/1 in win only markets.

Homa’s aptitude for performing in his home state of California is well documented. He is a winner at Riviera, Torrey Pines, and twice at the Fortinet Championship in Napa. An element of comfortability in the area and, particularly, on the poa annua surfaces could well be key this week.

What excited me about the weather was Homa’s clear aptitude to find the top of the leaderboard in such conditions. His 2022 Wells Fargo Championship and Fortinet Championship wins both came in miserable wet conditions. Perhaps some of the comes to his mental toughness. He has the word “Relentless” tattooed on his right wrist and would often tell his Cal teammates “you have to be a bulldog, you just got to be tough”.

Max Homa has finished 10-14-7 his last three starts on this course, all when this was still a full field event. He should benefit from the removal of Monterey Peninsula, his weakest course of the three. Of no surprise, he is one of the best in the world for approach from 100-150 yards. Additionally, he gets the easier but more exposed Pebble Beach in calmer weather on Thursday.

Homa has finished no worse than 21st since June 2023, a run of 11 straight tournaments. More remarkably, he has finished 14th or better in the 10 events since July 2023. The majors are the obvious next step for him, but winning on an iconic course like Pebble Beach will be high on his goals as he is in our betting tips.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Outside Homa, we move right down the board to golfers 80/1 or longer. The reason for this is two-fold. Firstly, we have assigned some heavy weighting on Homa. Secondly, in a event likely to prove volatile with the weather and a small 80 man field there could well be some decent value at the lower end of the board this week.

The first of those is Christiaan Bezuidenhout. A three time winner at DP World Tour level, Bezuidenhout went awfully close to his debut PGA Tour victory when runner-up at the American Express two weeks ago. A missed cut at Torrey Pines was unsurprising, being a week after that run and on a golf course that really is far too long for him.

Bezuidenhout has played here just once for a 14th placed finish. Notably, this came after an indifferent opening 71 on the now excluded Monterey Peninsula. He gained +1.90 strokes to the field at Spyglass Hills. However, he did by far his best work at Pebble Beach. Closing with rounds of 66-69 there, he gained a cumulative +6.75 strokes to the field on the weekend.

He does his best approach work from 100-150 yards, sitting in the top 20% in the world over the last 12 months. His game really does look to be elevating of late. He is the best in the field over the past 3 months for SG: APP and 6th for SG: Putting. He is also in the top 25% in this field for SG: ATG over the past 6 months. That combination of the key approach range with an excellent short-game is ideal for Pebble Beach. Ideally, he gets the first tee-time on Pebble Beach for Thursday.

Adam Hadwin – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips Best Value

Hadwin looks to be clear value at 100/1 this week. Another on the improve, he was 6th when last sighted at the American Express in La Quinta California.

He has a great record on this course, with form of 39-18-MC-16. The latest 16th place finish included losing 4 strokes on the greens. Given he has gained significantly on the greens in his other three appearances, it speaks to his suitability on this unique approach test. He is also the 9th best putter in this field over the past 6 months.

The approach data from 100-150 yards is some of the best you can find. He is in the top 2% for good shot percentage from that yardage and, additionally, he is in the top 7% for strokes gained in this approach bucket in the world over the last 12 months. For this particular field, he ranks 10th for SG: APP from this yardage. Hadwin also is the third group out on Thursday at Pebble Beach.

Performance in wild weather is also evident. Most notably, he finished 9th in the extremes of The Players Championship in 2022. The benefit of being accurate but also decently long off the tee, combined with a superb chipper and putter, will be an asset in these conditions.

Andrew Putnam

Finally, we round out our selections with Andrew Putnam. Putnam’s lack of distance should be no issue on this golf course, with his excellent driving accuracy a potential benefit in the high winds.

Again, sticking to the key approach range of 100-150 yards really identifies Putnam. He is 7th for SG:APP in this field over the past 12 months there. He is in the top 95% or better in the world for SG, GIR, Good Shot % and Poor Shot Avoidance for approach in that range over the last year.

A 6th place finish here in 2022 was noteworthy, where he played very well at Spyglass Hill and in his first of the two rounds at Pebble Beach. An average final round can somewhat be excused to nerves when holding the joint 54 hole lead. He will be better for that experience, and arrives here a much improved prospect than 2 years ago.

Join Team Audience on the PGA Draftcast

Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and reading my Pebble Beach betting tips. Make sure you are subscribed to the WinDaily Sports YouTube channel. We love seeing you in the chat to help Team Audience live draft a DFS line-up against us.

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Pebble Beach plays host to DeepDiveGolf AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview

What a week! Having been knocking on the door at every PGA Tour event in 2024, we finally saw one of our golfers get across the line. Obviously, that was in a rather big way with Matthieu Pavon making these pages at a massive 125/1! A huge bet landing, but also our first real signature event of the season as we preview what to expect from Pebble Beach.

Of course, it was a result that had been coming for quite sometime. At all three PGA Tour tournaments, we had who seemed the likely winner right there on Sunday. Theegala was runner-up and Spieth 3rd at The Sentry. We had Henley, Grillo, and Putnam at the Sony Open. Henley should’ve probably won that event, as should Sam Burns at the American Express last week. I always reiterate, the key is to trust the process. As we continue to find the likely winner at events, the more they are in the position to do so and come Sunday one will eventually find his way tot he top of the podium.

We can’t get too greedy having hit a huge winner last week. Despite the huge hit, we still had a few close calls. Patrick Rodgers secured himself a 9th place finish. That cashed our Top 20 bet on him at +300. He did miss out by one shot on a full place payout at +1320. Zalatoris looks well on the way to recovery, finishing 13th for us just two shots off a full place at +900. Schenk was one shot off cashing his Top 20 bet at +450. All around, a very profitable week obviously. Let’s go get some more with our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview!

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview: Course Analysis

Some important changes this year to note in our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview. With the move to a Signature Event, keeping the sponsors happy with all the best available players here, we also see the reduction to a field size of just 80 players.

This means we see the third course in rotation, Monterey Peninsula, dropped. Amateurs will only play first two rounds, with all the professionals playing 4 rounds with no cut. The first two rounds are split between Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach. Pebble Beach Golf Links will then host the final two rounds.

This should prove easier than the confusing mangle of data when three courses were in rotation and required analysis. Particularly, with three rounds on Pebble Beach it means we can near exclusively focus on players suitability to that course and what is required in our preview.

Pebble Beach is a rather unique and quirky test. The iconic course is very short. Sitting at under 7,000 yards it is the shortest par 72 on the PGA Tour. Greens are also some of the smallest we see of the regular PGA Tour stops at just 3,500 sq feet on average. Despite the short distance, cliffs and hazards determine that it can’t simply be overpowered by the driver. However, with the 4th widest fairways on Tour driving accuracy is also of limited importance here. As such, we see nearly all players playing from the same approach distance often.

This sees one of the largest concentrated pockets of approach shots all season, with 100-150 yard approach essential to success. With the tiny greens, there is also a large uptick in both SG: ATG and SG: Putting. These both receive heavy weighting in my model. Especially, considering the current inclement weather predicted which we will discuss shortly.

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Pebble Beach Course Comps

Firstly, as we preview some course comps for Pebble Beach it is worth noting course history is somewhat transitive at this event. It becomes difficult to untangle individual performance on each track with a myriad of factors in account. For example, if a day in particular played more difficult in general should we read too much into a golfer’s performance on whichever course they were on? If this event does remain across the two courses, especially with three rounds at Pebble Beach Golf Links, deciphering suitability and crossover to other tournaments may become easier.

The same can be said when discussing comp courses. I believe Harbor Town should prove somewhat decent guidance. Like Pebble Beach, we see a large deviation from standard driving distance. Greens are also extremely small, with increased missed GIR seeing a boost in SG: ATG and SG: Putting. Mav McNealy finished 4th at the RBC Heritage the same year he was runner-up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Jordan Spieth has an excellent record at both and is a winner at each.

The RSM Classic could also be a useful guide. Another coastal tournament, it uses a rotation between the Seaside Course and longer Plantation Course. General form in California is appreciated, as is performance on these tricky poa annua greens.

Weather Analysis

You know the weather must be bad when the rest of golf Twitter is suddenly alight with forecast take! Of course, we always preview weather as an essential component of our analysis and especially at Pebble Beach. It seems bizarre not to when no other sport is more subject to the elements.

Objectively, the weather does indeed look dreadful this week. There is a large frontal system moving along the coast, with the first wave to hit overnight Wednesday.

Thursday itself should be calm. However, it is worth noting the huge amount of rain forecast overnight with high winds. There may be delays due flooding or downed trees with branches that need retrieving before play can commence. Friday will again see light rain, with some moderate gusts in the afternoon.

Saturday sees much of the same. Sunday is where it looks to get really gnarly. The rest of the storm is forecast to arrive, bringing extremely heavy rain and winds gusting up to 60mph. I wouldn’t be surprised if no play occurs on that day. Especially, considering the exposed nature of Pebble Beach you could easily see balls unable to remain still on the greens. Expect either a 54 hole event or a Monday finish (which still looks very wet and windy).

What should we make of this? Given breadth of the weather, the best approach is likely simply finding golfers who have positive performance in wet and windy conditions. I do have a slight preference to playing the more exposed Pebble Beach on the Thursday. Spyglass Hill receives a modicum of protection due to the trees on the property.

You can find latest forecast details here.
Make sure to check in the WinDaily Premium Discord for up to date weather information using premium models, right up until first tee-time.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview Golf Betting Tips

Don’t miss out: Promo ends 31st January!

Thank you for reading my Pebble Beach preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like to read my golf betting tips and player profiles for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, you can preview these here.

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This week we are at The Farmers tourney in ( flooding at the moment) Torry Pines, California. There are 2 inches of water on the course and it’s closed to the players and anybody else. With a Wednesday start it will be a mighty effort to have the course ready. The reason for the day early start is that the PGA has no desire to be embarrassed by TV ratings and go up against the NFL Championships on Sunday. Regardless of when or if they get started Win Daily Sports has the tools and experts to assist you with roster construction. The Farmers Ownership Projections allow you to pivot to lower owned players, find those hidden gems and drive your teams to the top of multiple formats.

Courses and Horses

We have two courses instead of three this week, simply named the north and south course. The players split the two courses over the first two days and after the cut they play the much more challenging south course on Friday and Saturday. You will not see a 25 under par score anywhere near here. The north course also plays from 1 to 3 strokes easier than the south course. The Torrey Pines skill set consists of the short game and putting. Longer iron play is key here. You have a 7700 yard course that’s extremely water logged, so buckets this week are 150-175 and 200+. Xander, Morikawa ,Hoge, Finau, Straka, and Suh fit the bill. Last year the south course putting was the toughest over any other course played in 2023. Good putters from 15 feet to the pin include English, McNealy, Suh and Grillo.

Recent Results

Our Frisky Biscuit missed the the cut for the first time in 11 tries to bring our record to 10-1 last eleven.. Our biscuit pick this week will be in the Win Daily Sports Discord Wednesday evening. Win Daily Sports is the only place on the entire planet the Frisky Risky Biscuit will be released!

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for mild weather with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday in the early wave. A “Marine Layer” may set in due to all the rain and flooding. It brings in light fog, clouds, light precipitation and much colder temperatures. There may be an afternoon wave edge. Stay tuned to Win Daily Sports Discord for updates, especially on Tuesday evening.

Let’s take a look at the Farmers Ownership Projections to increase your ROI and gain leverage on the field.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Morikawa, Collin24.610200
Homa, Max23.910100
Schauffele, Xander23.710600
Bradley, Keegan22.18900
Im, Sungjae19.79900
Theegala, Sahith19.28700
List, Luke16.97800
Aberg, Ludvig16.89700
Finau, Tony16.49300
Lee, Min Woo16.29100
Straka, Sepp13.48600
Cole, Eric13.39000
Day, Jason12.59500
Montgomery, Taylor12.17400
Cantlay, Patrick11.910500
Rose, Justin11.98300
Matsuyama, Hideki11.48500
Jaeger, Stephan 11.17800
Pendrith, Taylor 10.67400
English, Harris10.48800
Zalatoris,Will9.98000
Ryder, Sam8.97200
Griffin, Ben8.87700
Hojgaard, Nicolai8.78400
Svensson, Adam8.67600
Kim, Michael8.47300
Lowry, Shane8.37900
Berger, Daniel8.28100
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan7.88000
Eckroat, Austin 7.77100
Bhatia, Akshay 7.57500
Meronk, Adrian7.48200
Hisatsune, Ryo7.27500
Rodgers, Patrick7.17700
Smalley, Alex 6.97200
Schenk, Adam6.87300
Hossler, Beau6.77600
Stevens, Sam6.37000
Fox, Ryan6.17500
Mitchell, Keith6.17900
Bramlett, Joseph5.86800
Moore, Taylor5.27300
Rai, Aaron5.17400
Yu, Kevin (Chun-an)4.97200
Pavon, Matthieu4.87100
Thompson, Davis 4.67200
Horschel, Billy4.47400
Hoge, Tom4.17200
Suh, Justin 3.97200
Vegas, Jhonattan3.86700
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)3.77000
Spaun, JJ3.67300
Kohles, Ben3.47000
Woodland, Gary3.47000
Grillo, Emiliano3.37500
Detry,Thomas 3.27100
Griffin, Lanto3.26800
Hughes, Mackenzie2.97300
Sigg, Greyson 2.96900
Hardy, Nick2.87000
MacIntyre, Robert 2.66800
Tosti, Alejandro2.66600
Gotterup, Christopher2.46500
Lee, KH2.47100
Whaley, Vincent2.36800
Bjork, Alexander2.27100
Hubbard, Mark2.27000
Ghim, Doug2.16800
McNealy, Maverick2.16900
Norrman, Vincent2.16900
Yuan, Carl2.06900
Tarren, Callum1.96400
Duncan, Tyler1.86800
Wallace, Matt1.87100
Hadley, Chesson1.77100
Gordon, Will1.66900
NeSmith, Matthew1.66600
Semikawa, Taiga1.66800
Stallings, Scott1.67000
Young, Carson1.66700
Bridgeman, Jacob1.56500
Champ, Cameron1.56800
Kim, Chan1.56700
Barjon, Paul1.46100
Hodges, Lee 1.46900
Lindheim, Nicholas1.47000
Schmid, Matti (Matthias)1.46700
Higgo, Garrick1.26500
Merritt, Troy1.16600
Moore, Ryan1.16600
Perez, Victor 1.16900
Endycott, Harrison1.06400
Hoffman, Charley1.06500
Dahmen, Joel0.96700
Lashley, Nate0.96500
Stanger, Jimmy0.96400
Wu, Dylan0.96600
Dumont de Chassart, Adrien0.86400
Knapp, Jake0.86400
Snedeker, Brandt0.86200
Xiong, Norman0.86300
Cink, Stewart0.76900
Lower, Justin0.76500
Ramey, Chad0.76500
Greyserman, Max0.66300
Hoey, Rico0.66200
Molinari, Francesco0.66700
Shelton, Robby0.66600
Buckley, Hayden0.56200
Phillips, Chandler0.56500
Streelman, Kevin0.56600
Coody, Pierceson 0.46100
Echavarria, Nico0.46300
Hall, Harry0.46600
Power, Seamus0.46700
Riley, Davis 0.46400
Blair, Zac0.36700
Coody, Parker 0.36300
Malnati, Peter0.36300
Reavie, Chez0.36400
Silverman, Ben0.36400
Dougherty, Kevin0.26100
Laird, Martin0.26300
Lipsky, David0.26200
Martin, Ben0.26400
Meissner, Mac 0.26200
Novak, Andrew0.26200
Springer, Hayden0.26200
Baddeley, Aaron0.16300
Fishburn, Patrick0.16300
Highsmith, Joe0.16500
McCormick, Ryan0.16200
Teater, Josh0.16100
Watney, Nick0.16000
Alexander, Tyson0.06100
Block, Michael0.06000
Brehm, Ryan0.06000
Byrd, Marcus0.06000
Campos, Rafael0.06000
Crowe, Trace0.06100
Furr, Wilson0.06100
Gutschewski, Scott0.06000
Hale Jr., Blaine0.06100
Holmes, JB0.06000
Pereda, Raul0.06000
Sisk, Cameron (a)0.06000
Skinns, David0.06100
Sloan, Roger0.06200
Taylor, Ben0.06000
Valimaki,Sami 0.06300
Witney, Tom0.06100

These Farmers Ownership Projections are accurate as of 6:24 EST. Top Tier Golfers may/will show a higher % by lock.

********Leverage Plays******

The big boss Jason requested that we add leverage plays to assist you with additions to your player pool and roster. Lets say golfer A is 34 % owned. You have three choices. Double (2X) your exposure (have 68 % of golfer A), sometimes even more, OR fade golfer A completely. So if you have golfer A in 7 out of every ten lineups and he crashes and burns, the only money you will see on Sunday is the greenbacks that go to some other DK player. If you fade him completely and he smashes you’ll have the same outcome.

How do we lower risk while trying to gain on the field? Your 3rd option is have golfer A in 3 out of every ten contests (roster the field average.) Then find one to two other players who are cheaper, lower owned, and who have the best shot at equaling or surpassing Golfer A or even coming up a fraction short of golfer A. This is pure leverage.

If you have two golfers at 3 % and 5% ownership and your other 4 golfers are the exact same as 300 other entries it means it’s down to your last two golfers versus their two (2V2) Most players will use their optimizer of choice which will always come in at much higher ownership for the last 2 golfers. You may have 5 golfers the same and it comes down to your 1 versus their one golfer (1V1). If your ownership, 3 & 5 %, goes up against their ownership % and your last two golfers have almost the exact same score as their last two, guess what? You just passed 300 golfers. Absolute leverage.

Our very own Stix Picks last week rostered Nick Dunlap who was owned by .14 of the field. That’s one tenth of 1%. Instead of earning twice his entry fee he finished 6th and earned thousands of dollars. For big GPP’s you only have to be different on one golfer, just one, perhaps two in the Milly Makers. Leverage is math, it could mean the difference in adding 5 zero’s onto your winnings.

Each week we will have 5 leverage plays posted for you. Here are this weeks candidates:

Upper Tier: P Cantlay. (Morikawa and Homa will have double + the ownership % on Patrick. Look at it like this – Would you take Morikawa at -230 over Cantlay? Homa at -230 over Cantlay (just to win 100)? If its a no, you are correct and Cantlay is leverage.)

Upper Mid: Jason Day 9500 salary, 12% owned VS Sungjae IM, 9900 salary and 20% owned and Aberg, 9700 salary and 17% owned)

Mid Tier: Will Z (8K salary and 9.9% ownership VS Bradley 8900 and 22.1 % owned, and Theegala 8700 salary and 19% ownership)

Low Tier: Nick Hardy (7K salary and 2.8% owned VS List 7800 salary and 17 % Owned, and Taylor Montgomery7400 and 12 % owned)

Bottom of the Barrel: Nate Lashley (6500 and 1% ownership)

My picks for The Farmers

Top Tier: Xander

Mid Tier: English

Low Tier: Michael Kim

Out in Left Play: Hardy

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Bradley

FR Leader: Taylor Moore (contrarian)

What to listen to

Be sure to check out Spencer’s and Stix’s Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. For the best intel on the betting market including top 40, 20, head to head and Underdog ADP. With Spencer’s and Stix’s world class models they also offer top shelf DFS choices as well.

Stix placed 6th in a huge GPP last week by rostering Dunlap, the eventual champion, and the only amateur in the tourney. Stix has a set of gorilla balls the size of Kong’s. It also paid out thousands of dollars. Congrats Stix! The Bettor Golf podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports.

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel and featuring Sia and Spencer and Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, along with the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s every Tuesday night at 8:00 EST and is fun, engaging, interactive and often has the drafted teams end up in the money. Show up, vote for your favorite golfer, and watch the experts go on tilt when you steal their pick! Deep Dive Dave is on fire, so is Stix Picks! Congrats for ANOTHER sweet profit placement last week at the AMEX, as well as numerous top 5 and top 10 ‘s as well!

***** Parting Shots *****

A cute little girl walks into a pet store and goes up to the owner standing behind the counter. He says, “hello little miss, how can I help you? She says, ” I need a bunny wabbit.” “He goes, awww, ok.” We have all different types ” We have big ones, little ones, grey ones, brown ones, rabbits with their ears standing straight up and some with floppy ears that hang down!” ‘What will it be?” She stands there, thinks for quite a while, then looks up, and says, ‘I really don’t think my python gives a fuck.”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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PGA West plays host to our American Express golf betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the Dubai Desert Classic, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive analysis of the three courses used this week, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into some of my process behind the American Express golf betting tips below.

As always, a few honourable mentions for this week. Adam Hadwin has an excellent desert record and equally as impressive a record here previously. He would’ve been preferred at 70s to the 50s that are on offer in this strength of field. Stephan Jaeger entered the frame given his ball-striking. Questions still remain about the putter with him. Clearly, that is a factor this week more than most. This might be the type of test that should suit Michael Kim at 150/1. However, others were just preferred ahead of him in that price range.

Finally, as mentioned in my preview article the average winning odds here are 130/1. I would, however, again mention that this field has seen increasing strength the last two years. Favourite Jon Rahm was victorious in 2023 at just +650, back when he was busy winning at every tournament he started. Obviously, he is not here to defend his title this week. But many other big names are returning. They dominate the market and, as such, it may still remain difficult for a very long outsider to shock the golf world here. Although we have found some value spots, the American Express betting tips reflect that reality.

YouTube player

The American Express Golf Betting Tips

Updated with best odds at 00:00ET 16 January
Suggested Staking

Sam Burns – American Express golf betting tips favourite
2.5pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Min Woo Lee
2.5pt E/W +3000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cam Davis
2pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
1pt E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (Unibet)

Austin Eckroat
0.5pt E/W +12500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +162 (Bet365)

K.H. Lee – American Express golf betting tips best value
0.5pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +170 (TAB) or +162 (Bet365)

Joseph Bramlett
0.5pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +275 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Sam Burns – American Express golf betting tips favourite

We lead off the card with Sam Burns. Skipping the top of this betting board comes with obvious risks. However, if there was ever an event where we are going to take on the likes of Scheffler and Cantlay, it should probably be this one. Burns sits right below the elite of the game, yet receives a more generous price than some of his counterparts who for me rank in a similar tier. The 33/1 looks a fair few points too high when compared to the likes of Sungjae Im and Tom Kim at 20/1.

Unlike the latter of those two, Burns has plenty of driving distance ranking 11th in this field from the past 6 months. He also ticks the putting box, sitting 10th in SG: Putting in this field over the past year. An average week at The Sentry, when 33rd, can be forgiven when shaking off the rust. If anything, Burns looked consistent if not spectacular, carding 4 rounds in the 60s.

His course form here is superb, with a record of 18-6-MC-11. We see more hints to his potential suitability with a 2nd at the Byron Nelson on his first look there. Further, desert golf in Las Vegas has seen Burns secure a 20th, 34th, and 14th most recently.

The Pete Dye Stadium course, where two rounds are played, should suit him particularly well. Burns won the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club, another Pete Dye design. Putting always receives a higher weighting in match-play events. Further, La Quinta Country Club has a large increase in long iron shots, with 35% of approach shots over 200 yards. That is very similar to the Copperhead Course, where Sam Burns has a fabulous record as two time winner of the Valspar Championship.

Min Woo Lee

With his first professional start in 2024, it naturally comes with some risk putting up a golfer who hasn’t played a tournament since early December. However, he is far from the only one in that boat. 2024 has been a ear-marked by many pundits as a potential break-through year for the talented young Australian. A victory in this type of field would give him plenty of confidence that he can go on to even better things.

Much of the hype comes from a very strong end to last year. He won an event in Macao, as he should’ve given the opposition, and then in a stronger field at the Australian PGA Championship. Given his youth, Min Woo doesn’t have much in the way of desert experience from the PGA Tour. However, having been born in Perth Western Australia, he would’ve had plenty of opportunity over the years as well as playing in the famous Melbourne sand-belt region including during his amateur years.

This does look like the type of test that should suit his game. He is the 2nd longest driver, 12th for SG: Putting, and 13th for SG: ATG in this field over the past 12 months. Where he can lack in approach, this has seen continual improvement and his best area is for approach over 200 yards. He began the 2023 season with aplomb, finishing a close 2nd in the desert at a DP World Tour Rolex Series event in Abu Dhabi with one of the strongest fields of the season. Let’s hope for another quick start this year.

Cam Davis

We go back-to-back with the young Aussie golfers in our American Express betting tips with Cam Davis. Although he hails from the opposite side of Australia in Sydney, that is also closer to the sand belt region where he has a wealth of experience.

Davis’ sole PGA Tour victory came at the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic, far from the worse comp for here. Always a low scoring affair, it has become more of a bomber’s paradise over time. We perhaps expected Davis to kick-on from that victory earlier than he has. But, much akin to Min Woo, he had a strong end to 2023 and this could be the year he realizes that raw potential.

That included a run of 8 tournaments from July to November. Davis finished outside the top 12 just once in those events. Most relevant was a 7th place at the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas, where he has never missed the cut in 5 appearances. Although missing the cut here last year, that only speaks to the volatility of this tournament. In 2021, he was 3rd at this event to compliment a 28th and 29th in his first two years on the PGA Tour.

A 4th at the PGA Championship and a 6th at The Players Championship suggest he is grown more comfortable in elite company. The latter of those two is hosted at TPC Sawgrass, another Pete Dye design. I like that Cam Davis saw marked improvement in both approach and driving accuracy across the two Hawaii tournaments. Look to the man who is the best putter in this field over the last 3 months to provide a strong showing this week.

Beau Hossler

A certain golfer made our 2023 American Express Golf Betting Tips write-up, where I noted he was possibly due for big things that year. The player was Wyndham Clark. He would later cash 80/1 winning tickets for us at both the Wells Fargo Championship and the US Open. I’ve included Beau Hossler among the names of golfers I think could be due for a big year in 2024.

Obviously, Clark was quite the anomaly and I don’t necessarily think that Hossler will go and win a major this year. I do see parallels in his improvement over the past 6 months though, and suspect a maiden victory is imminent.

Notably, we have seen some significant improvement from Hossler’s approach play in 2023. If looking at the past 24 months, Hossler ranks a lowly 123rd in SG: APP for this field. Over the past 3 months, he ranks 20th. In fact, over the past 6 months Hossler is 12th in this field for SG: TOTAL. Possessing plenty of distance off the tee and making plenty of putts, the approach is really the final key in the puzzle for him.

Having a 20th on debut at this event, he also holds a 17th at the Byron Nelson, and most recently was 7th at the Shriners Children’s Open. That started a run of 7-2-15 in his final 3 events of 2023. Whether he can start the season with the same fervor remains to be seen. The fact he is Californian born and raised might suggest some local comfort will be an assistance.

Austin Eckroat

We enter three long-shot selections in our American Express golf betting tips, with the bet weighting favoured towards top 20 and top 40 finishes.

Beginning that list is Austin Eckroat. Hailing from Oklahoma, this is the sophomore season for Eckroat who finished the 2022 Korn Ferry Tour in 2nd place. It was a decent rookie season for him, where he finished in the Top 20 in 20% of his starts. Most notably, the 10th placed finish at the US Open would’ve caught the eye of many who were not already aware of this rising star.

That golf course should prove somewhat decent guidance to here. Unlike many other US Open venues, the tournament was also held in California at the Los Angeles Country Club. The course was fairly generous off the tee, with driving distance still a requisite skill.

Further suggesting this may be a decent spot, Eckroat had his best finish of the season at the Byron Nelson. His runner-up finish there should be well correlated to what is needed for victory this week.

K.H. Lee – American Express golf betting tips best value

We can probably keep things pretty simple with K.H. Lee. If the Byron Nelson is correlated to this tournament, K.H. Lee won that event for back-to-back victories in 2021 and 2022.

Adding to those claims, Lee’s recent run at the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas has seen him finish 14-37-7 in his last three appearances there. Again, I’m not going to be overly critical of a mediocre record at this golf course. I take solace in the fact he has gained strokes putting here in 4 of 5 appearances, especially given that can be a hinderance to his performance.

Also eye-catching was Lee’s performance last week at the Sony Open. Although finishing 30th may not set the world alight, the irons looked back to their superb best sitting 6th for SG: APP. That was pleasing to see after not playing competitive golf since November. I believe he makes excellent value at 125/1.

Joseph Bramlett

Finally, I will wrap up my selections with a speculative bet on Joseph Bramlett.

Bramlett is 2nd in this field for SG: APP over the past 6 months, an impressive feat in a field with the likes of Scheffler, Cantlay, and Schauffele. It has long been the story for Bramlett that his excellent ball-striking can get left behind with the putter. That comes with some inherent risk at an event like this one. Much like Hossler, being born and going to college in California suggest that this type of surface may provide him with the best opportunity.

The desert form link at Byron Nelson is clear, where he finished 7th on debut followed by a 51st and 19th. Again, he doesn’t possess a stellar record here. However, he has made both previous cuts. Most pleasingly for our golf betting tips, he has putted at or above field average in 3/4 appearances at the American Express.

A 52nd last week was more promising than first viewed, considering it was the first event back after 6 months out with an undisclosed injury. That risk from both the rust from injury recovery and the putter do get built into the price, available at a whopping 200/1.

One and Done Tips

Finally, if you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article. The majority of One and Done golf contests began last week at the Sony Open. I have put together your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive optimal One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. It is well worth a bookmark in any case, to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year.

You can join me in the free WinDaily One and Done contest here. It is always fun and I look forward to a wee bit of competition in 2024!

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