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Before getting into our betting tips for the US Open, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of Pinehurst No. 2, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my ...

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Well, here was me thinking I had recovered from my post travel illness, only to come down with COVID in the middle of a major week. It’s actually my first time having the bug. Considering I remained healthy through 3 instances of my young daughter having it, I had hoped I was somehow immune and would be able to sell my blood for science to fund my retirement. Such was the extent of infection from our friend’s 30th birthday event, the group chat has now been renamed “Zoe’s 30th Super-Spreader Event”. But, you think that’s going to keep me down? In a major week? I don’t think so! Ain’t no way I was missing putting together a US Open preview for all you good folks (albeit with strategic naps in between).

Scottie Scheffler continues to defy all logic and reason with another outrageous statistical performance. His nearly +13 SG: APP was the 7th best approach round since strokes gained data began in 2004. It is the nature of tournaments which he is completing these feats that is perhaps the most astonishing. He is -106 across the last 8 events, where field average is +5. And that is assuming you made the cut in all 8 tournaments.

That makes life very difficult for those who bet golf. It is pretty remarkable we remain at a very small loss for ROI on the year (-3.72%). That has mainly been buoyed by our continued performance on the DP World Tour and regular place money on the PGA Tour. Given returns of 32.71% in 2023 and 24.9% in 2024, we will keep fighting the good fight whilst we weather the Scheffler storm.

US Open History at Pinehurst No. 2 Preview

The 124th US Open returns to Pinehurst No. 2 for their 4th opportunity to host this historic tournament. Over that time, just four players have shot under-par. Outside of a Kaymer runaway victory in 2014 when -9, the other three (Fowler, Compton, and Payne) all shot just -1. Michael Campbell won at even par by two over Tiger Woods here in 2005. Another Kiwi, Danny Lee, also won the US Amateur at this venue. Kia kaha!

Amazingly, Pinehurst Resort & Country Club actually has 10 full 18-hole golf courses. Throw in a 9-hole short course and 18-hole putting course for good measure. A true golfing mecca and, for many, Pinehurst remains an iconic home of golf in the USA.

Perhaps the most important note is the restoration of Pinehurst No. 2 in 2011. As has been seen in many major championship venues, the mission of Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw was to return the course back to Donald Ross’ original intentions. Most notably, that included the removal of an astonishing 35 acres of turf and restoration of the sandy waste areas lining these fairways.

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Pinehurst No. 2 Golf Course Analysis

It is often said that all US Open venues play somewhat similar. I think, any many ways, Pinehurst No. 2 breaks that mold.

Yes, it will be devilishly tough this week. The course is also very long at 7,543 yards for a par 70. The course will play very firm and fast. Greenskeepers have already been spotted watering the greens as early as Tuesday to try keep the course somewhat under control.

Fairways are wide at 35-45 yards on average. However, given the firmness they may play somewhat narrower than what is read on paper. Different to other US Open venues, which love to introduce extremely penal rough, the course has practically none. Instead, stray off the fairway and you run the lottery of finding yourself in sand (preferable) or wire grass (possibly unplayable).

Pinehurst No. 2 hosts our US Open preview

There is often a right and wrong side of the fairway to play your approach shot, to access these difficult greens. Given the course length, it is inevitable you will see a large number of approach shots from over 200+ yards.

Much has been made of those dome shaped greens. You have likely seen them described as upside-down saucers or akin to turtle backs. This effectively reduces the size of the greens significantly. Despite the 6,500sq feet the greens read on paper, the landing area where you need to play to is much smaller. The lack of rough means low running shots are a possibility, much like at links golf courses.

Finally, note after the 2014 US Open the greens switched from bentgrass to bermudagrass. This will be the first US Open played on bermudagrass greens.

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Pinehurst No. 2 Course Comps

As such, although prior form in US Opens is desirable, that comes more from an ability to keep an even temperament in the face of a difficult course than any course correlations. Of other Major Championship venues I suspect that Chamber’s Bay, Shinnecock Hills, and Oak Hill play the most similar. East Lake Golf Club is another Donald Ross design which you can consider this week.

I see links form as a real positive this week. Performing in The Open Championship is respected. It could also see a few players from the DP World Tour emerge, with the Alfred Dunhill Links a decent general guide and the Scottish Open providing some assistance for PGA Tour based players. Bay Hill asks similar questions but in a different way.

The golf course reminds me a lot of a number of courses in the Melbourne Sandbelt region. An Australian hasn’t won this tournament since Geoff Ogilvy in 2006, but perhaps this US Open preview as their best opportunity to snag one.

US Open Weather Preview

In general, the weather looks relatively inane all week. Winds look to remain in the single digits all week and gusts shouldn’t threaten over 20mph.

Most notably though, there has been a distinct lack in rain in North Carolina. The fact that they are already having to water the greens beginning the week is a sign that this course can play as fast as they wish. The masochistic in mean hopes they let it run rampant.

Fairways will narrow as a result, all though the course may seem to play a little shorter given the run after the carry from drives. Greens are set to run above 13.5 on the stimpmeter. Holding greens will be extremely difficult and inventive short-game will be important, as well as holing putts to try keep momentum. Needless to say, par will often be a great score and see you gain strokes on the field. Bring it on!

US Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you want to read my golf betting tips for the 124th US Openyou can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
We believe trust and transparency are key in this industry. We keep meticulous result tracking. You can sign up with the utmost confidence you are joining one of the sharpest golf bettors on the planet.

START A FREE TRIAL HERE NOW
Or
Find out more about DeepDiveGolf here

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports covers.
From the NFL, NHL, MLB, NBA, Soccer, and more, we have experts in nearly every field you can imagine. No one provides better value!

Access to our premium Discord channel is one of the best aspects of a premium membership. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.

Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 US Open. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

Rewatch the US Open PGA Draftcast

If you’ve not already, make sure to catch the US Open PGA Draftcast as we preview this week’s Major. We even had a special return from Sia Nejad to share his intel. Let the team know on Twitter whose line-up you think won!

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Firstly, thank you all for being a little patient with me over the last fortnight with article production. I’ve been gallivanting around the world again for some work commitments, in this instance to the Philippines. And, as is often the case, I managed to get a bug on the way home. Initially, something I dubbed the “Manila Thriller” followed by a cold, but fortunately not COVID. It is great to be back into the swing of things for a signature event with our Memorial Tournament preview.

However, the golf tips have kept rolling for a great couple of weeks. We hit Nacho Elvira at the Soudal Open for a 75/1 winner on the DP World Tour. We then backed that up with another fabulous week on both sides of the pond. At the European Open, we had both Niklas Norgaard and Julien Guerrier in 4th. Fellow Kiwi Ryan Fox held a 4-shot lead with 25 holes to play, before he looked at a leaderboard. 5 of our selections at the RBC Canadian Open finished 21st or better (with 4 of those in the top 10). It was especially pleasing considering we had limited data on a relatively rare appearance of Hamilton Golf and Country Club.

Muirfield Village Golf Club – Course Analysis

The signature event returns to Muirfield Village Golf Club, affectionately known as “Jack’s Place”. Jack Nicklaus designed the course in 1974 before the inaugural PGA Tour tournament in 1976. He then undertook a renovation in 2020 which saw all green complexes remodeled, restored bunkering, and lengthening of the course. As such, we have a wealth of data to delve into this week.

The course is perhaps Nickalus’ most iconic design and his stylization of this track is clear to see. A key for all of Nicklaus’ courses is that they should reward players for the gifts they possess. If you have distance, you should be able to use it. However, if you miss the fairway, you will be penalized. Muirfield Village was designed with Augusta National in mind, visible in the heavily undulating greens.

Muirfield Village hosts our preview of the Memorial tournament

Despite on paper being a very long 7,533 yard par 72, driving accuracy has been a better predictor of success. The rough is thick and lush at 4 inches Kentucky bluegrass. It has been the highest missed fairway penalty on the PGA Tour in 5 of the last 7 seasons. Adding to that, heavy rain has been experienced throughout May in Ohio.

Greens are relatively small at 5,000sq ft on average. The course has ranked in the top 5 most difficult for SG: APP on the PGA Tour every season since the 2020 restorations. We see 35% of all iron shots occur from 200+ yards and 50% of all approaches from 175+ yards. Notably, the Par 5s are still reachable by even the shorter hitters.

Finally, SG: ATG is a key factor. The course ranked in the 6 most difficult for SG: ATG since 2015. As such, we honed in on driving accuracy, SG: APP (particularly over 175 yards), and SG: ATG this week.

Muirfield Village Golf Club – Course Comps

Given the Nicklaus signature design across the property, we can look at a couple of other designs from the Golden Bear for guidance. PGA National has always proven a stern major like test, and that is what we can expect to find this week. Winning scores should not get out of hand there, and a total of -10 to -15 can get the job done. Valhalla stacks up very well also. This has the added benefit of featuring bentgrass greens and ticking the box on recent form, given the PGA Championship was held there just a fortnight ago.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is also analogous. The Valspar Championship has always rewarded driving accuracy over distance (although both are preferable at each). That largely comes down to similar reasons to Muirfield Village: that the rough is long and the fairways are tree-lined. You see a disproportionate number of shots from over 200+ yards, as golfers favour accuracy off the tee and leave themselves a longer approach.

I’ll give a nod to the Wells Fargo Championship host, with Quail Hollow also looking for longer but accurate drivers and providing a stern test. And, of course, I do think it is a benefit if you have played well at Augusta National. Particularly, look for solid performance there around and on those undulating green complexes which we see emulated by Nicklaus here.

the Memorial Weather Preview

Often with signature events, there is little to say about the weather. With most of these events having no cut, they also feature condensed tee-times with all golfers hitting the course within two hours of the rest of the field. Without a cut, you are far more likely to see the cream rise to the top by the end of the week.

However, it is worth noting the differences this week. The event does feature a cut, albeit only to 50 golfers and ties or those within 10 strokes of the lead by the conclusion of round 2. Additionally, all groups will start on the 1st tee this week. That means there is a substantial gap between the field. The first players (a lone Davis Thompson) begin play at 7:40 am local with the final pair not going out until 2:00 pm.

There may be a benefit for those going out earliest on Thursday morning. Prevailing winds should sit in the single digits until around 11:00 am, before rising to mid-teens for the remainder of the day. Heavy gusts are predicted for later in the afternoon, reaching as strong as 25-28mph. Friday should be windy all day, with gusts of between 28-35mph.

With heavy rain overnight Wednesday, I suspect Thursday AM get both softer and calmer conditions. I would not be surprised to see lift, clean, and place in-play. That would further benefit those who gain on the field for driving accuracy.

Ensure you have signed up for WinDaily Premium to access all our final weather decisions closer to tee time. Information is available right up until play starts to provide you with any identifiable weather edge that can be gleaned. This is particularly for DFS, with players priced under $7,500 most affected by any weather edge.

the Memorial Tournament Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you want to read my golf betting tips for the Memorialyou can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
We believe trust and transparency are key in this industry. We keep meticulous result tracking. You can sign up with the utmost confidence you are joining one of the sharpest golf bettors on the planet.

START A FREE TRIAL HERE NOW
Or
Find out more about DeepDiveGolf here

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports covers.
From the NFL, NHL, MLB, NBA, Soccer, and more, we have experts in nearly every field you can imagine. No one provides better value!

Access to our premium Discord channel is one of the best aspects of a premium membership. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.

Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the Memorial tournament. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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Well, I may have a small part of premonition on the PGA Tour last week in our preview of the Wells Fargo Championship. I mentioned that there may be some hope for punters trying to find some value with no Scottie Scheffler in the field and Ludvig Aberg WD with knee injury concerns. I went on to say that it probably meant Rory McIlroy would win. We duly struck a blow for punters, becoming yet another short-priced favourite to win on the PGA Tour. There, I will fess up, I jinxed it. Sorry, all.

True to form, I mentioned an interesting PGA stat I found in the lead-up to the Wells Fargo Championship preview. Just two winners had sat outside the Top 31 for ball speed when they won at Quail Hollow. It may be frustrating to see another short-priced winner, but it was reassuring to see our analysis played true in that regard.

But, let’s get honest. It has been a dire season for nearly all golf punters. It has been either very short-priced favourites or extreme long-shots taking out most tournaments for the season. So often, golf betting value is found in the 50/1 to 100/1 range. There have been just 4 such winners on the PGA Tour this year. Fortunately, finding Pavon at 125/1 at the Farmers Insurance Open has saved us from complete decimation. However, we stick to the process with the knowledge that when it comes to golf analysis following the numbers will eventually lead to a positive result over the long run.

Valhalla Golf Club Course Analysis

Valhalla plays host to our PGA Championship preview

Speaking of Rory McIlroy, the PGA Championship returns to Valhalla Golf Club, a course we last had the chance to preview some 10 years ago. That was the venue of Rory’s last major victory, and he arrives in a rich vein of form off the back of consecutive victories. Included in that was the win at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, where Quail Hollow should play analogous to Valhalla.

This feels like another venue that will do what it says on the tin. Valhalla, designed by Jack Nicklaus and played in the state of Kentucky, is an epic 7,609 yards par 71. Quail Hollow is also a par 71 and a mere 51 yards shorter. Both also feature a driveable par 4 and reasonably narrow fairways.

That is a hallmark of Nicklaus-designed golf courses. He tests every element of a player’s game. So, if pulling driver, you will be rewarded with extra distance if you keep the ball in-play. However, fairways narrow significantly at landing areas with thick hay and fairway bunkers awaiting any tee shot that falls too astray.

Greens are a little smaller than Quail Hollow and are bentgrass. They will be firm and fast, typical of a PGA Championship venue. Par will often be a very good score and see you gaining strokes on the field.

Finally, we have a rare emergence of zoysiagrass fairways. This grass type features rarely on the PGA Tour. We see this at regular stops at TPC Craig Ranch, TPC Southwind, and East Lake Golf Club. This polarizing grass has a higher rate of water retention. Some players comment that it feels like hitting the ball off a tee. Others complain that it can produce flyers, with the grass getting caught between the ball and club face and traveling further than expected.

Valhalla Course Comps

As mentioned, this is a rare circumstance where last week’s tournament provides not only some guidance of recent form but a course that should demand similar skills from our golfers in this PGA Championship preview.

Quail Hollow matches in a large number of metrics, from overall performance off the tee, and similar approach metrics as expected this week where any shots over 175 yards will see a disproportionate weighting compared to other PGA Tour venues.

Given some of the weather to be discussed shortly, I think that the 2022 PGA Championship could be a reasonable guide to this week. Oak Hill also is far from the worst guide to consider.

I have also included some weighting in my model to recent zoysiagrass performances. Although the venues often produce lower-scoring tournaments, we can look into the approach numbers at these PGA Tour stops to identify players who may prefer this grass type.

PGA Championship Weather Preview

Weather certainly looks like it could play a role in this year’s PGA Championship preview. Thursday currently looks to be quite calm, although early morning fog may see play delayed by an hour or two if heavy. Particularly, Thursday morning looks to be quite still and should provide optimal scoring conditions with the course still a little moist from rain earlier in the week.

Friday afternoon, we could see some more volatile weather arrive. There is a chance of thunderstorms from 1pm and winds will increase, gusting up to 25-30mph. There is always the risk with thunderstorms that play is delayed. This can cause any weather edge to flip 180°.

However, in this instance, forecasts have Saturday being very windy and high gusts all day. Thos on Friday PM would only find themselves in more volatile winds should they need to finish round 2 on Saturday morning.

That leads me to believe there should be a weather edge for tee-times from Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. That always comes with the caveat that weather forecasts can flip quickly, especially when there is the looming chance of thunderstorms.

Ensure you have signed up for WinDaily Premium to access all our final weather decisions closer to tee time. Information is available right up until play starts to provide you with any identifiable weather edge that can be gleaned. This is particularly for DFS, with players priced under $7,500 most affected by any weather edge. You will find this information and more in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

PGA Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you want to read my golf betting tips for the PGA Championshipyou can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

Find my Profit and Loss Tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
We believe trust and transparency are key in this industry. We keep meticulous result tracking. You can sign up with the utmost confidence you are joining one of the sharpest golf bettors on the planet.

START A FREE TRIAL HERE NOW
Or
Find out more about DeepDiveGolf here

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports covers.
From the NFL, NHL, MLB, NBA, Soccer, and more, we have experts in nearly every field you can imagine. No one provides better value!

Access to our premium Discord channel is one of the best aspects of a premium membership. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.

Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the PGA Championship. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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