Before getting into our betting tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of Bay Hill Club & Lodge, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf betting tips below.
You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.
Xander Schauffele heads the list of close contenders for the Arnold Palmer Invitational betting card. I expect he will play well this week, given his correlated form at TPC Scottsdale and the US Open. Having now not won since July 2022, I simply found his odds of +1800 difficult to swallow in this class of field.
Rory McIlroy would make a very simple way to approach the week and was tempting. Especially, this is true in a week with three tournaments worthy of substantial coverage. He has looked to be trending of late, and could well go close at a golf course he very clearly loves.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips
Suggested Staking
Posted in WinDaily Sports Premium Discord Monday 4 March 17:30 ET
Tommy Fleetwood
2.5u E/W +2500 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
Cam Young
2u E/W +3300 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
Matt Fitzpatrick – Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +3300 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
Adam Scott
2u E/W +5000 (Unibet with 6 places 1/5 odds)
Corey Conners
1u E/W +6000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +170 (Bet365)
Tom Hoge
1u E/W +8000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +220 (Bet365)
Lucas Glover – Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +300 (Unibet)
Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Player Profiles
Tommy Fleetwood
It may seem a bit odd to begin the betting card with two golfers who have taken a pretty hard time from the industry surrounding their ability to close out a victory. Generally, I think it is fair to say the public are too harsh in such circumstances. A substantial part of luck does play a part in who can get across the line come Sunday. And I think Fleetwood fits that bill.
Fleetwood won recently on the DP World Tour at the Dubai Invitational, closing where Rory McIlroy could not. That was an exposed windy track with plenty of water in play and using bermudagrass. Although not as long as what we will find here, those parallels do remain. The simple fact for Fleetwood is more the fact he doesn’t put himself in contention enough more than his ability to finish the win.
Before the Dubai win, he had held just one 54-hole lead on the DP World Tour in 10 years. He boasts an excellent record at the US Open, finishing 5th in 2023 and an additional runner-up in 2018 and 4th in 2017. In terms of his record at Bay Hill, he finished 3rd here in 2019 alongside finishing 10th in 2017 and 2021.
A 10th when last sighted at the Genesis Invitational holds promise. Certainly, he remains one of the best approach players on tour from 200+ yards. Additionally, he has won at higher totals previously. He has only won once when scoring reached further than -19. Further, he has won three times at -11 to -12 which looks like a winning total this week. He looks like a great betting selection at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Cam Young
Unlike Fleetwod, Cam Young has not managed to win anywhere in the world. He had another wonderful opportunity to do so at the Dubai Desert Classic. Unfortunately, he continued to fold every opportunity he found himself once again in contention on the Sunday. Certainly, Rory McIlroy holds a fabulous record both at Bay Hill and Emirates Golf Club. He was the eventual winner ahead of Young for his 4th Dubai Desert Classic victory, but he links the two tournaments nicely.
The long and short of it is that his game looks to be in sharp shape. 4th most recently at the Cognizant Classic came on a golf course that demands his strongest club, the driver, to remain in the bag often. A recent 8th at the WM Phoenix Open is a nice correlation with TPC Scottsdale holding strong links for betting guidance to the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Two attempts at this tournament for returns of a 13th and 10th are rock solid, especially considering this was still a full-field event during those instances. His excellent approach from 200+ yards will hold him in good stead at this tournament with his putter also showing some nice signs of life. A tough test such as this may just be the spot for Cam Young to sneak past the winning post and shake the monkey off his back.
Matt Fitzpatrick – Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips Favourite
A rather easy selection on Fitzpatrick this week. Fitzpatrick is 2nd only behind Scheffler for approach from 200+ yards in this field over the last 12 months. Certainly, it comes as no surprise then that he boasts a fantastic record at Bay Hill where he has finished 27-13-MC-2-9-10-9-14.
Further ties can come from being the US Open winner in 2022 and a record at TPC Scottsdale of 10-29-15 in just three starts. Fitzpatrick has continued to add distance through his speed training and this will only be of further benefit to his chances this week in Arnold Palmer Invitational betting markets.
Fitzpatrick was more likely to be found in the mid 20s were he in any substantial recent form. However, the 21st finish last week at the Cognizant Classic did show some signs of promise with two rounds of 67 and finding himself on the wrong side of a substantial 1.5-stroke weather draw. His PGA Tour wins have come at -6 and -17. Additionally, his DP World Tour wins have all come at -19 or higher with 8/9 of them coming at -17 or higher.
Adam Scott
I was quite surprised to find the betting number available on Adam Scott at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. Fair to say, Scott has been superlative form for quite some time, finishing 20th or better since October last year.
This is the exact type of test that Scott thrives in. A prolific winner on the PGA Tour, 9/14 of his PGA Tour victories have come at -12 or higher. That is demonstrated in his 6 finishes of 14th or better at the US Open. Further, correlation can be found with most recently finishing 8th at TPC Scottsdale. That came during a tournament he has typically avoided and in only his second appearance at that event. A pair of 3rd place finishes around Bay Hill
A student of the game, history matters deeply to Scott, and winning at this historically notable tournament would be a feather in his cap he would love to add in the latter years of his professional golfing career.
Corey Conners
It is with some minor trepidation Corey Conners is added to our Arnold Palmer Invitational betting card.
The negative, as always, is with the putter. Putting does generally have a higher weighting at this tournament historically than other PGA Tour events. As per my preview article, much of that stems from the large nature of these green complexes. That may be a cause of concern, given the ineptiude that Conners often displays with the flat-stick. Struggling at the US Open also does hold some concerns for me.
On the positive side, Conners has generally performed better with the putter here than in other performances. He finished 3rd here in 2021 when gaining 4 strokes putting. He also gained strokes putting here in 2023 and finished 11th in 2022 despite losing strokes putting. Further, he is a two-time winner at the Valero Texas Open.
In some similarity to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, that event has multi-tiered large green complexes, and lag putting can prove a real asset at that tournament. Conners ranks 7th in this field for SG: APP over 200+ yards over the last 12 months and is also strong from 150-200 yards. Those two factors see him undervalued in current betting markets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Particularly, in the Top 20 betting markets.
Tom Hoge
Hoge looks to be right at his very best with his irons of late, and arriving at a golf course where quality ball striking has been a real strength.
Finishing 17th or better in 4/6 most recent tournaments already tells a lot as to the level he is currently competing. Included within that was a 17th at TPC Scottsdale, a course where he had previously finished 14th as well. Additionally, he has a 26th and 15th-placed finish in his first two appearances at this golf course. His further three appearances haven’t been much to write home about.
However, I would note the two missed cuts both came right on the number with what can be a volatile golf course given the amount of water. Further, one of the single shot missed cuts came when losing 5 strokes putting in just two rounds on a golf course he has always gained putting in all of his 4 other appearances. Hoge ranks within the top 15 from both 200+ and 150-200 yards on approach within this field.
Recent form in signature events of 6th and 8th came on two quite different golf courses. He looks in superb touch and seems well-placed for another excellent finish this week.
Lucas Glover – Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Betting Tips Best Value
Finally, we round out our betting card with a deep long-shot on Lucas Glover.
There is simply no chance that Glover would be found in the bottom 10% of the betting board was this tournament held just 6 months ago. Much of that came from some dramatic improvement with the putter; the perenially deficit found in Glover’s game.
Of promise is his prior putting form at this tournament. Glover had provided positive performances or at the field average when putting at this tournament in 9/14 appearances at Bay Hill. That has included 5 Top 20s here, all when not playing to the standard we saw in the tail-end of the 2023 season proper.
Aside from that, he is also a US Open champion and displays excellent approach metrics. Whether this test now proves a little too long given his age is what remains to be seen. However, his excellent driving accuracy and ball-striking provide a modicum of confidence he may avoid the worst of this penal test. And, at 150/1, we don’t have to pay much to find out here.
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