Before we dive into our Travelers Championship preview, it is only right we talk about THAT tournament this week. The 124th US Open Championship lived up to the mark, producing one of the most memorable majors in recent memory. Not only is it rare to get a major championship that close right until the final hole, but also to have a leaderboard of that calibre meant we enjoyed a tournament for the ages.
Pinehurst No. 2 was a brilliant host. It lived up to all the promise, albeit the course was watered occasionally much to the jeers of the crowd. It truly is a fabulous golf course. Pleasingly, it has been marked as one of several venues which will host the US Open more regularly. The green complexes are some of the most fascinating that we get to enjoy of the major championship venues. There is something to be said for removing the rough around greens, relying instead on heavy contouring and fast, firm greens. It allows for more creativity and, subsequently, enjoyment for fans who get to see the world’s best golfers struggle to think of ways to get up and down.
Overall, it was another profitable week for our selections without the winner. Headline selection Xander recovered from a poor start to fight back across the week. Davis Thompson was tipped at a massive 300/1, and impressed once again. He was just one shot off place money of 60/1, triple the best available pre-tournament odds on a Bryson DeChambeau win.
True to form, the PGA Tour backs up a major championship with a signature event the following week. Although controversial, I can understand the reasoning. Not only does it ensure the field doesn’t get weakened after one of the flagship tournaments of the year, it has the additional benefit of striking while the iron is hot and fan interest in golf is high. The event will have no cut and was originally to have 72 players, although that has now reduced with Rory McIlroy to recover from that heart-breaking defeat.
TPC River Highlands plays host for our Travelers Championship preview. The course in has played host for decades, so we have a wealth of data. The first thing to note is that driving accuracy is at a premium here. That is often a prerequisite at courses where Pete Dye is involved.
Fairways are narrow averaging just 29 yards at key landing areas. The course has ranked in the 10 most penalizing for missed fairways in 7/9 most recent tournaments. The rough is thick Kentucky Bluegrass. Notably, this week the course superintendent has given rough length as 4+ inches. I’ve not seen the plus notation previously, so I am interested to see how long they let the grass grow out!
The course is short at just 6,835 yards for a par 70. The average length of par 4/5 is some of the shortest we will see of all regular PGA Tour stops. As such, you simply have to find the fairway to approach these greens and keep up with the scoring. We also see a reduction in projected long iron approaches. There is an increase in approach shots from 150-175 yards, but the vast majority of iron shots will be from less than 150 yards this week.
Guidance for our Travelers Championship preview can be found in other Pete Dye designs. Both Harbour Town (host of the RBC Heritage) and TPC Sawgrass (host of The Players Championship) shape as good indicators. They each require driving accuracy for different reasons. Harbour Town has overhanging trees along the fairways which can compromise approach angles. TPC Sawgrass is dotted with water throughout the property.
As such, it also makes sense to consider Sedgefield Country Club. The link between TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield is one of the strongest correlations of all PGA Tour courses. It demands driving accuracy, but also has the added benefit of a requirement to keep up with low scoring.
Wai’alae Country Club is another guide, with tree lined fairways on a short course keeping accuracy front of mind along with very similar approach distance metrics. With the return of bentgrass greens, the recent RBC Canadian Open and the Memorial Tournament can be used for SG: Putting data.
As is often the case in signature events, there is little chance of a weather edge developing in our Travelers Championship preview. Given the reduced field, the tee-time window when golfers will be on the course is reduced. The prevents an edge developing given the lack of distinct disparity between the morning and evening. Further, with no cut, this has less benefit for DFS players.
Thursday looks to be very windy from the afternoon onwards. Those going off earliest should benefit, although the advantage is somewhat limited given the tee-time window is likely to only be two hours. On Friday, there is a chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the evening. I suspect that they will try to get all groups out as early as possible on Friday morning.
There is a chance that lift, clean, and place could be in play. This means golfers who find the fairway can remove any mud off the golf ball and also give themselves a perfect lie. It would only further emphasise the importance on driving accuracy this week.
Saturday looks calm and the course should be soft if the forecast rain arrives. Scoring should be good. Should the weather preview hold true, Sunday sees some wind return, hopefully leading to an exciting conclusion for the Travelers Championship.
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Well, here was me thinking I had recovered from my post travel illness, only to come down with COVID in the middle of a major week. It’s actually my first time having the bug. Considering I remained healthy through 3 instances of my young daughter having it, I had hoped I was somehow immune and would be able to sell my blood for science to fund my retirement. Such was the extent of infection from our friend’s 30th birthday event, the group chat has now been renamed “Zoe’s 30th Super-Spreader Event”. But, you think that’s going to keep me down? In a major week? I don’t think so! Ain’t no way I was missing putting together a US Open preview for all you good folks (albeit with strategic naps in between).
Scottie Scheffler continues to defy all logic and reason with another outrageous statistical performance. His nearly +13 SG: APP was the 7th best approach round since strokes gained data began in 2004. It is the nature of tournaments which he is completing these feats that is perhaps the most astonishing. He is -106 across the last 8 events, where field average is +5. And that is assuming you made the cut in all 8 tournaments.
That makes life very difficult for those who bet golf. It is pretty remarkable we remain at a very small loss for ROI on the year (-3.72%). That has mainly been buoyed by our continued performance on the DP World Tour and regular place money on the PGA Tour. Given returns of 32.71% in 2023 and 24.9% in 2024, we will keep fighting the good fight whilst we weather the Scheffler storm.
The 124th US Open returns to Pinehurst No. 2 for their 4th opportunity to host this historic tournament. Over that time, just four players have shot under-par. Outside of a Kaymer runaway victory in 2014 when -9, the other three (Fowler, Compton, and Payne) all shot just -1. Michael Campbell won at even par by two over Tiger Woods here in 2005. Another Kiwi, Danny Lee, also won the US Amateur at this venue. Kia kaha!
Amazingly, Pinehurst Resort & Country Club actually has 10 full 18-hole golf courses. Throw in a 9-hole short course and 18-hole putting course for good measure. A true golfing mecca and, for many, Pinehurst remains an iconic home of golf in the USA.
Perhaps the most important note is the restoration of Pinehurst No. 2 in 2011. As has been seen in many major championship venues, the mission of Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw was to return the course back to Donald Ross’ original intentions. Most notably, that included the removal of an astonishing 35 acres of turf and restoration of the sandy waste areas lining these fairways.
It is often said that all US Open venues play somewhat similar. I think, any many ways, Pinehurst No. 2 breaks that mold.
Yes, it will be devilishly tough this week. The course is also very long at 7,543 yards for a par 70. The course will play very firm and fast. Greenskeepers have already been spotted watering the greens as early as Tuesday to try keep the course somewhat under control.
Fairways are wide at 35-45 yards on average. However, given the firmness they may play somewhat narrower than what is read on paper. Different to other US Open venues, which love to introduce extremely penal rough, the course has practically none. Instead, stray off the fairway and you run the lottery of finding yourself in sand (preferable) or wire grass (possibly unplayable).
There is often a right and wrong side of the fairway to play your approach shot, to access these difficult greens. Given the course length, it is inevitable you will see a large number of approach shots from over 200+ yards.
Much has been made of those dome shaped greens. You have likely seen them described as upside-down saucers or akin to turtle backs. This effectively reduces the size of the greens significantly. Despite the 6,500sq feet the greens read on paper, the landing area where you need to play to is much smaller. The lack of rough means low running shots are a possibility, much like at links golf courses.
Finally, note after the 2014 US Open the greens switched from bentgrass to bermudagrass. This will be the first US Open played on bermudagrass greens.
As such, although prior form in US Opens is desirable, that comes more from an ability to keep an even temperament in the face of a difficult course than any course correlations. Of other Major Championship venues I suspect that Chamber’s Bay, Shinnecock Hills, and Oak Hill play the most similar. East Lake Golf Club is another Donald Ross design which you can consider this week.
I see links form as a real positive this week. Performing in The Open Championship is respected. It could also see a few players from the DP World Tour emerge, with the Alfred Dunhill Links a decent general guide and the Scottish Open providing some assistance for PGA Tour based players. Bay Hill asks similar questions but in a different way.
The golf course reminds me a lot of a number of courses in the Melbourne Sandbelt region. An Australian hasn’t won this tournament since Geoff Ogilvy in 2006, but perhaps this US Open preview as their best opportunity to snag one.
In general, the weather looks relatively inane all week. Winds look to remain in the single digits all week and gusts shouldn’t threaten over 20mph.
Most notably though, there has been a distinct lack in rain in North Carolina. The fact that they are already having to water the greens beginning the week is a sign that this course can play as fast as they wish. The masochistic in mean hopes they let it run rampant.
Fairways will narrow as a result, all though the course may seem to play a little shorter given the run after the carry from drives. Greens are set to run above 13.5 on the stimpmeter. Holding greens will be extremely difficult and inventive short-game will be important, as well as holing putts to try keep momentum. Needless to say, par will often be a great score and see you gain strokes on the field. Bring it on!
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 US Open. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
If you’ve not already, make sure to catch the US Open PGA Draftcast as we preview this week’s Major. We even had a special return from Sia Nejad to share his intel. Let the team know on Twitter whose line-up you think won!
Firstly, thank you all for being a little patient with me over the last fortnight with article production. I’ve been gallivanting around the world again for some work commitments, in this instance to the Philippines. And, as is often the case, I managed to get a bug on the way home. Initially, something I dubbed the “Manila Thriller” followed by a cold, but fortunately not COVID. It is great to be back into the swing of things for a signature event with our Memorial Tournament preview.
However, the golf tips have kept rolling for a great couple of weeks. We hit Nacho Elvira at the Soudal Open for a 75/1 winner on the DP World Tour. We then backed that up with another fabulous week on both sides of the pond. At the European Open, we had both Niklas Norgaard and Julien Guerrier in 4th. Fellow Kiwi Ryan Fox held a 4-shot lead with 25 holes to play, before he looked at a leaderboard. 5 of our selections at the RBC Canadian Open finished 21st or better (with 4 of those in the top 10). It was especially pleasing considering we had limited data on a relatively rare appearance of Hamilton Golf and Country Club.
The signature event returns to Muirfield Village Golf Club, affectionately known as “Jack’s Place”. Jack Nicklaus designed the course in 1974 before the inaugural PGA Tour tournament in 1976. He then undertook a renovation in 2020 which saw all green complexes remodeled, restored bunkering, and lengthening of the course. As such, we have a wealth of data to delve into this week.
The course is perhaps Nickalus’ most iconic design and his stylization of this track is clear to see. A key for all of Nicklaus’ courses is that they should reward players for the gifts they possess. If you have distance, you should be able to use it. However, if you miss the fairway, you will be penalized. Muirfield Village was designed with Augusta National in mind, visible in the heavily undulating greens.
Despite on paper being a very long 7,533 yard par 72, driving accuracy has been a better predictor of success. The rough is thick and lush at 4 inches Kentucky bluegrass. It has been the highest missed fairway penalty on the PGA Tour in 5 of the last 7 seasons. Adding to that, heavy rain has been experienced throughout May in Ohio.
Greens are relatively small at 5,000sq ft on average. The course has ranked in the top 5 most difficult for SG: APP on the PGA Tour every season since the 2020 restorations. We see 35% of all iron shots occur from 200+ yards and 50% of all approaches from 175+ yards. Notably, the Par 5s are still reachable by even the shorter hitters.
Finally, SG: ATG is a key factor. The course ranked in the 6 most difficult for SG: ATG since 2015. As such, we honed in on driving accuracy, SG: APP (particularly over 175 yards), and SG: ATG this week.
Given the Nicklaus signature design across the property, we can look at a couple of other designs from the Golden Bear for guidance. PGA National has always proven a stern major like test, and that is what we can expect to find this week. Winning scores should not get out of hand there, and a total of -10 to -15 can get the job done. Valhalla stacks up very well also. This has the added benefit of featuring bentgrass greens and ticking the box on recent form, given the PGA Championship was held there just a fortnight ago.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is also analogous. The Valspar Championship has always rewarded driving accuracy over distance (although both are preferable at each). That largely comes down to similar reasons to Muirfield Village: that the rough is long and the fairways are tree-lined. You see a disproportionate number of shots from over 200+ yards, as golfers favour accuracy off the tee and leave themselves a longer approach.
I’ll give a nod to the Wells Fargo Championship host, with Quail Hollow also looking for longer but accurate drivers and providing a stern test. And, of course, I do think it is a benefit if you have played well at Augusta National. Particularly, look for solid performance there around and on those undulating green complexes which we see emulated by Nicklaus here.
Often with signature events, there is little to say about the weather. With most of these events having no cut, they also feature condensed tee-times with all golfers hitting the course within two hours of the rest of the field. Without a cut, you are far more likely to see the cream rise to the top by the end of the week.
However, it is worth noting the differences this week. The event does feature a cut, albeit only to 50 golfers and ties or those within 10 strokes of the lead by the conclusion of round 2. Additionally, all groups will start on the 1st tee this week. That means there is a substantial gap between the field. The first players (a lone Davis Thompson) begin play at 7:40 am local with the final pair not going out until 2:00 pm.
There may be a benefit for those going out earliest on Thursday morning. Prevailing winds should sit in the single digits until around 11:00 am, before rising to mid-teens for the remainder of the day. Heavy gusts are predicted for later in the afternoon, reaching as strong as 25-28mph. Friday should be windy all day, with gusts of between 28-35mph.
With heavy rain overnight Wednesday, I suspect Thursday AM get both softer and calmer conditions. I would not be surprised to see lift, clean, and place in-play. That would further benefit those who gain on the field for driving accuracy.
Ensure you have signed up for WinDaily Premium to access all our final weather decisions closer to tee time. Information is available right up until play starts to provide you with any identifiable weather edge that can be gleaned. This is particularly for DFS, with players priced under $7,500 most affected by any weather edge.
If you want to read my golf betting tips for the Memorial, you can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
Find my Profit and Loss Tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
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Access to our premium Discord channel is one of the best aspects of a premium membership. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.
Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the Memorial tournament. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
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