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Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

I’m very excited to arrive in Phoenix for multiple reasons, not the least of which is that we only have one course this week and we likely won’t have much by way of weather concerns.  This is definitely a ball strikers course with a premium focus on SG APP.  Being good OTT helps as always but this is a second shot golf course so I’ll be focusing on those metrics along with the typical focus upon recent form and course history.  Join me and Michael Rasile and the King of Showdowns, Joel Schrek, at 8:00 tonight for all of our DFS plays as we do our typical deep dive.  We will also be hitting you with our customary first round leader and outright bets (which I’ve hit two weeks in a row).  Let’s get to the Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (11200) – A guy who consistently lands in the Top 10 with the upside for a takedown.  Rahm rates out 4th T2G and while he picks up more strokes OTT versus APP (I’d prefer the opposite here) I think he’s in great form and he’s coming home to a course he’s probably played a ton. 

Xander Schauffele (11000) – Like most DFS players, I get Xander wrong more than I get him right.  With that said, I really like what I saw from Xander last week on a course he usually can’t get right.  Last week he had to battle just to make the cut and then kept chipping away until falling into 2nd place.  There are guys with better course history than Xander and Rahm, but there my guys this week in the elite range.

Daniel Berger (9600) – Another guy with very good course history who is really rounding into form.  Right before the break he was trending to average but since then he’s finished 10th at Sentry and 7th at Sony.  I think his upside includes a 1st place finish, particularly if he finds a hot putter, which he has been known to do.

Will Zalatoris (9000) – This new kid on the block appears to have all the tools to compete with the best and he showed that last week, a feat particularly impressive since he had zero course experience at Torrey Pines.  Zalatoris doesn’t have a lot of PGA rounds under his belt, but the rounds he does have pop off the page particularly on APP. 

Russell Henley (8200) – Last time I thought this guy was a “safe play” he missed the cut at the American Express.  Henley dominates on APP, but a closer look shows that said domination occurs about half the time.  His track record here is hit or miss and his recent history is hit or miss, but if he’s hitting his irons right you are getting great value at this price.

Corey Conners (7900) – Corey is definitely part of team no-putt, but his ball striking is elite relative to the others in the 7k range.  He’s been a regular Top 25 finisher over the last few months, including a 10th at the Masters and a 10th at RSM.

Henrik Norlander (7500) – I’m always careful not to chase last week’s points and that’s certainly in play here, but the upside is too much to pass up with Norlander.  He was excellent last week with a 2nd place finish and 12th place right before that at The American Express.  The ball striking has been great and it looks like this guy has turned a corner.

Emiliano Grillo (7300) – Did someone say team no-putt?  Unfortunately Grillo is a captain of that squad but his ball striking is elite and I’m going to hope that he finds a warm putter (a “hot” putter is probably asking too much).  His course history here is average at best, but I still see him as a great value here.

Michael Thompson (7200) – Don’t look now, but Thompson might be the most underrated golfer in this entire field.  He’s got four top 25’s in the last four tournaments including a 5th at The American Express.  His ball striking has been very good lately and while he loses OTT, I expect him to pick up strokes everywhere else.

Sebastian Munoz (7100) – Once I’m down in this range I’m really looking for upside and that’s exactly what Munoz offers.  He can get really hot and can carry your DFS roster for at least a few days.  I’ll take some shots here.

Joel Dahmen (6800) – Joel does not have a good course history here and his recent history isn’t much better, but this is more of a hunch play as I believe in his game OTT and on APP and think he can be a big time scorer if he finds his game.  I’ll warn you that I won’t have many shares of Dahmen but I do love the upside.

Davis Riley (6100) – Another new kid on the block, but this guy is even newer than Will Zalatoris.  And by the way, in 2020 he absolutely crushed it on the Korn Ferry Tour with Will Zalatoris.  The KFT is no joke and I think this could be a diamond in the rough, but it’s not an SE or 3max play, it’s more of an MME play.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – tune into Discord Wednesday night.

See everyone tonight on the PGA Livestream on our YouTube page or on Twitter @windailysports and be sure to check out all of the PGA content at windailysports.com and in Discord. Thanks for reading my Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks.

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PGA

Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks

Josh Matigian
written by Josh Matigian

Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks

The Win Daily PGA team will be bringing you the customary content this week and the website and Discord chat are sure to be active over the next 24 hours.  Below are my Initial Picks for the Mayakoba and these picks incorporate recent form, course history and the appropriate strokes gained metrics (and maybe a hunch or two on golfers I’m expecting to surprise some people).  As for the metrics to focus upon, I’m looking for drivers that are accurate off the tee and APP and PUTT.  You do not need to be long off the tee on this course and that brings a few more golfers into the mix that can truly contend here. Tune into our Livestream tonight (and every Tuesday night) at 8:00 EST for more on these golfers and many more. Here are my Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks.

Brooks Koepka (11000) – Game is certainly rounding into form with a 7th at the Masters and a 5th at Houston and he feels like a great pivot off what will be a very chalky Justin Thomas.  If you want to roster JT instead of Koepka, that’s fine, but just know JT is likely to carry about 10% more ownership.  More on that with the @SicilyKid article on Wednesday and in Discord.

Viktor Hovland (9700) – His track record here doesn’t inspire confidence (two missed cuts) and he hasn’t been as good with the irons lately as I’d like, but I believe in his game too much to pass him up in this field.

Will Zalatoris (9200) – This guy is just red hot.  He’s been excellent OTT and even better on APP.  Add to that his last five tournaments he’s finished 16th, 5th, MC, 8th and 6th.  A nice finish here may get him into the OWGR Top 50 which automatically qualifies him for the 2021 Masters.

Corey Conners (9000) – His track record here isn’t good, but I’m willing to overlook that because his recent form has been great (three Top 10’s in his last four tournaments).  The strokes gained metrics add up as well as he has been great OTT and on APP.    

Carlos Ortiz (8900) – He’s been good with the ball striking lately and relatively good with the short game.  Add to that his recent form is obviously good with a 1st place in Houston and the fact that he finished 2nd here last year. 

Emiliano Grillo (8300) – If this man could ever get the putter going, his price would consistently be in the mid 9k range in fields like this.  The ball striking has been very good, particularly on APP.  Other than Houston he’s been easily making cuts and he’s made four cuts in a row here.

Joel Dahmen (8000) – We’re looking for scorers and this guy can get hot in a flash.  He’s high risk and high reward at times and when it unravels it can get bad, but his upside is too good for me to pass up. 

Doug Ghim (7400) – He’s been excellent on APP and solid with the short game, and oh yea, I picked him as 1st Round Leader on the Plantation course at the RSM and it hit (bang!).  He’s got three Top 25’s in the last three tournaments.

Austin Cook (7300) – He let us down at the RSM with an MC, but was very good prior to that.  He’s accurate OTT and can get hot on APP.  Has flashed enough recent upside for me to have him in some lineups.

Brice Garnett (7000) –Some questionable recent form for Garnett, but what you can’t question is how much he likes this track as his last four here he’s finished  11th, 5th, 25th and 7th.  Add to that he’s typically accurate OTT and we may be in the perfect spot for Garnett to pay off his price and then some.

Ryan Armour (6600) – I’m going to do my best to avoid the 6k range but if I need to dip down here, I think Armour is a great course fit.  He is a short hitter which immediately makes him relevant on this course and he is also typically accurate OTT which should set him up well on APP.  He’s made three cuts in a row here.

Secret Weapon (less than 6k/less than 5% ownership) – Tune into Discord on Wednesday.

See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST on the Livestream @windailysports on Twitter or on our Win Daily Sports YouTube channel.

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PGA

The CJ Cup: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The CJ Cup: Initial Picks

Two weeks in Vegas sounds like a bad idea, but here we are at a no-cut event in Shadow Creek.  This is a new location for the CJ Cup which normally takes place in South Korea.  Therefore, you can go ahead and ignore prior history as it was not on this course. We have also already seen DJ and Tony Finau withdraw the the event. Shadow Creek is characterized as a long course but the length is minimized by the altitude.  There are plenty of water hazards and the rough may be high so you’re going to want some accuracy with your length and good play around the green will also prove to be helpful here, so here are our The CJ Cup: Initial Picks. Don’t forget to join the Livestream TONIGHT (Tuesday) at 8:00 EST.

Jon Rahm (11300) – Hard to pick among the upper crust this week as they are all very deserving to be put in your lineups, but I prefer Rahm’s all around game, particularly what he can do OTT.  Justin Thomas is my honorable mention as far as my favorite top play.

Xander Schaufele (10300) – Looking for good all around game and Xander checks all the boxes.  He has also been in great form which includes a 5th place at the U.S. Open.

Matthew Wolff (10000) – I would normally be a bit hesitant to take a guy who just lost in a playoff, but I don’t think anything really affects the former rookie class of Wolff, Morikawa and Hovland.  They certainly don’t seem like the new kids on the block and I’ll be on them again this week.  Wolff’s ownership likely to be high.

Tyrell Hatton (9600) – Coming off a win last week in Europe, Hatton is a guy that can go low on any given day.  He’s in good form and he gains strokes in every metric with APP being the best of those metrics.  Ownership may be down a bit because Hatton just won and had to travel quite a bit in the last couple of days. 

Collin Morikawa (9500) – I’m guessing Collin’s stock is dipping now that he’s starting to miss cuts and that means it’s the perfect time to take him.  I must admit, I’m a touch worried about his game right now, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if he turns it around on his home turf in Vegas.

Viktor Hovland (9000) – An incredible ball striker who still has a questionable short game.  Definitely willing to gamble on this guy as right now he’s probably the most forgotten of the ‘Rookie Three’ and I think it’s a good time to pick up shares.  His ownership is tracking at well below that of Wolff and Morikawa but still above 10%.

Abraham Ancer (8200) – Ancer was pretty terrible down the stretch of last season, but seems to have recalibrated last week with a 4th place finish.  This guy seems to start FedEx Cup seasons well and he should be a good course fit with his OTT and APP game.

Brendan Todd (7900) – Certainly not long OTT but always seems to be around on Sundays.   Ownership should be low as there are plenty of ‘sexier’ options in this range.

Russell Henley (7100) – Good enough OTT and great on APP and gains ARG.  Henley has been particularly good on APP recently.  Henley may have limited upside but has the game to put up scores that outpace his price.

Ryan Palmer (6700) – I have no issue jamming Palmer into a lineup in a no-cut event.  He’s usually good for at least one great day (and one very bad one) and that’s the type of scenario that could really pay off this week. 

Adam Hadwin (6700) – Great ball striker who has a great track record in the desert.  He shot super low last Saturday and followed it up with a bad Sunday.  The bad Sunday (and resulting 34th place finish) is hopefully what most will remember and that should keep ownership low.

Secret Weapon – See you in Discord.

Thanks for checking out my The CJ Cup: Initial Picks! Don’t forget to join us tonight, check out the other great articles up on Win Daily Sports, and please also subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast!

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Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Lots of big names in this solid field of 144+ golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties
  • First two major winners of 2020 (Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa) headline the event
  • Defending Champ and former winners:
    • 2019 – Kevin Na (-23, beat Patrick Cantlay in playoff)
    • 2018 – DeChambeau (-21, another Cantlay second place)
    • 2017 – Cantlay (-9 in windy conditions, beat Whee Kim in playoff)
  • The course: TPC Summerlin (Las Vegas, NV)
    • Par 71: 7,255+ yards
    • Bentgrass greens
    • Played at altitude, helping shorter hitters
    • Easier setup with shorter Par 4s and three reachable par fives
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Birdie or Better %, SG: OTT, Par 4s (400-450), Bogey Avoidance, SG: Around the Green

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,800) – It’s going to be interesting to watch the new version at altitude, on a course he’s played well in the past. Expect the unexpected, unless that means the beefier Bryson not having his way with the golf course, where he’s had three Top 10s in four tries. I know it could come back to haunt me if he has some sort of meltdown, but I’m all in in all formats – regardless of ownership.

Webb Simpson (DK $11,000) – If you’re looking for a GPP pivot who bears almost no resemblance to what will inevitably be a chalky DeChambeau, then Webb is your guy. His finishes here are a bit pedestrian, but they have improved each since 2015. He might even be a sneaky play if you’re building a cash lineup that features some serious bargain values that I’ll get to down the list.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $10,400) – There are better golfers in this price range, but none have three straight finishes in the top two on this course, so we have to talk about Patrick. With a much better field than in previous installments, this may be the year he doesn’t contest on Sunday. It won’t be an all-out fade, but I’m not too enthusiastic given his lukewarm play over the past few months.

Collin Morikawa (DK $9,800) – The reigning PGA Championship winner missed the cut at the U.S. Open in much more difficult conditions. With Morikawa’s ball-striking prowess and improving short game, this second-shot golf course should be a cakewalk. I’ll be overweight and trying to find ways to get him in along with Bryson.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,600) – Another X-factor who’s going to be a contender at big events for years to come, Wolff notched a Top 20 in his debut at TPC Summerlin in 2019. A great cash game and GPP play, especially if you’re looking for a relative bargain with Top 5 upside.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Harris English (cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,300) – The hardest working player on Tour makes a lot of sense despite limited experience at this venue (T15 in 2018, his only start here). I’m expecting a top 20 finish at TPC Summerlin and would feel comfortable being ahead of the field in my ownership.

Rickie Fowler (DK $9,000) – If there’s a golf course where Rickie could make his big resurgence after a series of swing changes, it’s this one. He’s got a fine record here when he’s made the stop, and the ownership should be low, so I’m all aboard in mid-range stocked GPP builds.

Abraham Ancer (DK $8,700) – It’s been feast or famine for Ancer at the Shriners over the past four years, but his 2020 game has been on point, so I’m plenty interested in GPPs, where a ball striker like Accurate Abe could be a fine mid-range anchor.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,300) – There’s no course history to speak of, but Zalatoris is on the verge of becoming a tour regular with special temporary membership within his grasp. He missed the cut last week, but he’ll be prepared for this venue that could very well suit his strong T2G game.

Brian Harman (DK $8,000) – Harman has made seven consecutive cuts made, including a pair of top 15s in the FedExCup Playoffs, and the history at TPC Summerlin is impressive, with top 20s in his last two appearances. The price is just too cheap for a course horse like Harman.

Denny McCarthy (DK $7,700) – If you want to shake things up with a GPP play the masses will avoid, McCarthy (who finished T6 last week) is your guy. Possibly the tour’s best putter (he’s led in SG: Putting both of the last two seasons) Dump-it-in Denny has notched a T15 and T9 here since a missed cut in 2018.

Also consider: Paul Casey (GPP), Scottie Scheffler, Kevin Na (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Zach Johnson, Cam Davis, Doc Redman, Cameron Smith

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Ryan Palmer (DK $7,400) – Palmer fits in both cash game and GPP builds as a high upside play. He missed the cut at the U.S Open, but the PGA Tour veteran made six straight cuts before Winged Foot, and he finished T37 last year at Shriners.

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,300) – This is a great price for a golfer who just sounds like he should tear up the PGA event in Las Vegas. Kidding aside, he’s a talented player with a T18 in last year’s Shriners.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,100) – The fourth-place finish in 2019 drew my attention, but my main concern is that the field could be a little too good for him to contend on Sunday this year. I wouldn’t fault you for using him in cash games at this relative bargain, but I’m not ready to commit in my core builds.

Adam Schenk (DK $6,900) – He’s now made nine consecutive cuts, though the best finish is a T12, making him (just like the Adam above) best deployed in cash games.

Cameron Tringale (DK $6,900) – Always a favorite GPP play of mine, Tringale can turn it on with the putter and can handle the T2G expectations this golf course offers.

Francesco Molinari, (DK $6,700) – Speaking of getting hot with the putter, have we ever seen a guy fire it up like Frankie? There are massive concerns regarding his recent layoff, but he’s got a T4 in his only appearance here in 2016 and is an enormous bargain under $7K.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,700) – He’s got some excellent finishes here (T18-T7-T4), and his form has been solid, with two top 20 finishes in his last five starts. We had to like that combination, don’t we?

More value golfers to consider: Harold Varner (cash), Sam Burns (GPP), Joel Dahmen, Pat Perez, Kyle Stanley, Maverick McNealy (GPP), Harry Higgs, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge (GPP), Matthew NeSmith

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Beau Hossler (DK $6,500) – The Hossman has made his last four cuts, and he’s got three finishes in the Top 30 at the Shriners in the last three years (T29-23-T7). That’s a solid rationale to play him at just $6,500.

Richy Werenski (DK $6,400) – His last few tournaments haven’t inspired confidence, but he’s played better and better at every Shriners and 2020 has been somewhat of a breakthrough.

Patton Kizzire (DK 6,300) – Another bargain play who could help fill out your studs and scrubs GPP lineups, Kizzire has fared well at Summerlin, with two Top 5s (T2 in 2015, T2 in 2017) in his last four tries.

Additional punts: Mark Hubbard, Kevin Chappell, Will Gordon, William McGirt (GPP), Brian Gay (GPP), Wyndham Clark

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PGA

Corales Puntacana Resort Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

Corales Puntacana Resort Initial Picks

The PGA Tour goes to the Dominican Republic this week to take a swing at a resort course which is sure to produce some very good scores. It helps to be long here, but if past winners are any indication, it is not a requirement. Tune in TONIGHT at 8:00 to the Win Daily Livestream @windailysports with the regular cast of characters as we go over the entire DFS slate and provide some outright and H2H picks. Don’t forget to check out the rest of the content we have coming on Win Daily Sports! Here are our Corales Puntacana Resort Initial Picks.

Sam Burns (10100) – He’s long and accurate and has been in good form (he’s coming off a 7th at the Safeway).  Burns has a great shot to win this tournament and if I was doing the pricing, he’d be at the very top.  He will be chalk for sure, but I’ll have him in my GPP’s and cash.

Emiliano Grillo (9800) – He’s played five tournaments since the restart and he’s made all five cuts.  He is great T2G and his success typically comes down to whether or not he can figure out the putter.

Denny McCarthy (9600) – Coming off a missed cut at the Safeway should keep his ownership down, but he was very solid before that.  Also has a nice track record here and is normally great on APP and good OTT. 

Luke List (8700) – List is long and is no stranger to going low.  The problem is his recent form hasn’t been great.  With that said, he sets up very nicely for this course and he’s another guy that just needs to find a hot putter for a couple rounds.

Kyle Stanley (8100) – Stanley hasn’t been making a ton off cuts lately (only made 2 of his last 5) but it’s interesting to note that his ball striking has been very good.  He is getting killed in the PUTT department and I’m willing to take a shot on him turning that around.  If Stanley’s putter is average he should be within the Top 20 on Sunday. 

Patrick Rodgers (8000) – maybe a bit of a misprice here and I’m going to go ahead and take advantage of that.  Five made cuts in a row for Rodgers.   His APP stats on the year aren’t great, but I’m going to take recent form into account and fire away on Rodgers.  Take note that this is a boom or bust play.

Will Gordon (7600) –   Gordon was a DFS darling a couple months back and is now relatively forgotten, which means it’s the right time to jump aboard. He makes birdies and he’s long off the tee which is a great recipe on this track.   Needs to get his APP game in order as it’s been off lately.

Chris Kirk (7400) – He’s gained OTT in each of his last four tournaments and has made four out of five cuts since the restart.  Kirk is a big time comeback story and he seems to have turned a page.  If he can get his APP game clicking he’s got a shot to be competing near the top on Sunday. 

Doug Ghim (7300) – Not an exciting name, but he’s made two of his last three cuts (including 14th at the Safeway) and he’s gained strokes in almost every metric during that stretch.  Ghim has been particularly good on APP and with the short game. 

JJ Spaun (7000) – Just to be clear, Spaun has been mostly bad over the last 12 months.  But his last two tournaments he’s been dialed in with his OTT and APP game and I’m taking a shot here.  This is a GPP play only and I certainly won’t have too many shares, but I’m taking a shot with Spaun.

Secret Weapon (sub 6k/sub 5%) – Get into our Expert Discord Chat for the latest installment.

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PGA

The Memorial Golf Ownership Preview & Picks

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

The Memorial Golf Ownership projections are a key factor when creating your lineups for tournaments. So lets take a look at the numbers.

Hello everyone, it’s time to pick your poison, and based on the The Memorial Golf ownership % the 9K group is almost all at 20% or higher. If you can stay away from the 9 K group, a hard option to let go of, it offers you a 20-25 % leverage over the field unless one of them wins. Let’s get down to the numbers. These numbers are as of this report, and again expect a push from the 9K field.

Patrick Cantlay leads the field at 22%+ (+ is rising ) followed by Abraham Ancer at 21%, and The Man, Tiger Woods, rounding out the top 3 at 20%.

Jon Rahm is next at 18%, Xander Schauffele, Gary Woodland, and Victor Hovland are 16.5%, Webb Simpson is at 16%, Rory McILroy is 15.5% and Bryson DeChambeau is 15%+, along with Daniel Berger and  Hideki Matsuyama. Justin Thomas is 14.5 % and Paul Casey, a late bloomer has blossomed up to 13.5 % Joaquin Niemann is 12.5%. Rickie Fowler along with pal Dustin Johnson are 11.5%. Last weeks winner and Patrick “Sharps” Scott’s favorite pick Collin Morikawa is only 11% along with Patrick Reed and Kevin Streelman.Brooks Koepka is at 10.5%

The players at 10% include Adam Hadwin and Sergio Garcia and Billy Horschel.Lucas Glover is 9.5%. Harris English is 9% along with Jason Day, and Tony Finau. Matt Kuchar and Matthew Fitzpatrick are 8.5%. Ian Poulter is 8%. Corey Conners, Sungjae IM and Mark Leishman are at 7%. Jordan Spieth, Kevin Kisner, and Scottie Scheffler are at 6.5%, Justin Rose and Danny Willett are at 6%. Doc Redman is at 5.5% Kevin Na and B An are at 5%

The sub 5% group includes Brendan Todd and Max Homa who are on the border at 4.75 % Sepp Straka, Keegan Bradley, and H Varner lll are at 4%, along with Brendan Steele. Chez Reavie is 3.5%, along with Taylor Gooch. Troy Merritt is at 3% along with Shane Lowry, Louis Oosthuizen, Jim Furyk, Matthew Wolff and Cameron Champ. Coming in at 2.5% are Joel Dahmen, Bubba Watson, Emiliano Grillo, Phil Mickelson, Lanto Griffin, and Maverick McNealy.

The sub 2% group includes Bud Cauley, Zach Johnson, Bernd Weisberger, Tyler Duncan, Hao Tong Li, Carlos Ortiz, Sebastian Munoz, Eric V Rooyen, Nick Taylor, Jason Kokrak, Jason Dufner, Tom Hoge, Andrew Landry, Mackenzie Hughes, Steve Stricker, Branden Grace, Matt Wallace, Patrick Rodgers, Brian Stuard, Scott Piercy, Mark Hubbard, Dylan Frittelli, CT Pan and Vaughn Taylor along with the lower tiers not named.

My best value pick is Adam Hadwin, based on his metrics and ownership for this course. I also like Webb Simpson this week, and believe Gary Woodland will be in the mix.

My lower tier picks include Harris English, Troy Merritt and Lucas Glover.

My out in left field play is Ryan Moore, and last weeks pick,Nick Taylor.

As always, I hope to be with you, in the money and I hope The Memorial Golf ownership projections helped you pick wisely.

Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

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PGA

The Memorial: Initial DFS Picks

stephenbrown764@gmail.com
written by stephenbrown764@gmail.com

Hopefully you have already reviewed The Range and are ready to start attacking lineups.  Below are my initial picks in this loaded Memorial field.  As subscribers know, these picks are further developed during the week in Discord, the Livestream and with further articles from our golf team which will isolate even more golfers to consider in cash and GPP.  Please monitor the ownership projections that we deliver in Discord and that are put out by Steven early Wednesday evening.  Let’s get after it.

Collin Morikawa (10000) – There are so many arguments that can be made for golfers in this elite price range and if I had to pick an honorable mention, it would be Bryson (certain to have a few shares of Bryson as well) but Morikawa appears to be the safer and more automatic option of the group.  I just can’t really believe how unflappable this guy is and what he showed me on Sunday was that his next golf shot is just another shot.  He is on auto-pilot and that’s what I prefer to fly with this weekend. 

Patrick Cantlay (9800) – Wasn’t great to start at Workday but started to really catch fire on the weekend.  Given that he has only played two tournaments since the restart I think we can legitimately attribute the slow start last week to some rust, and now we may have a guy that is ready to fire for all four rounds.  The T2G numbers are outstanding and he won here last year and was 4th the year before (7th last week at Workday after that slow start).

Jon Rahm (9300) – I’d like to think Rahm found something last Sunday as he finally woke up and fired 8 birdies and an eagle (with two bogeys).  His paltry 27th place finish will keep ownership down but we will have to monitor that as we head toward Thursday.  Rahm hasn’t met his potential yet this year, but at 9300 we are definitely getting some value for a guy that is consistently thought of as a Top 5 golfer in the world. 

Daniel Berger (8700) – There is a lot emerging talent in golf and Berger is clearly near the head of that class.  He has been absent the last few weeks but he came out firing post-pandemic with a 1st and 3rd place finish.  Add his 4th place at the Honda Classic before the pandemic and he has finished Top 4 in his last three tournaments.  His APP and OTT numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page and he does tend to lean on a hot putter but I love where he is at right now and I put him squarely in the unflappable category along with Morikawa.

Gary Woodland (8600) – Fair to say the relationship between the DFS community and Gary Woodland is squarely in the love/hate department as of late.  With that said, he absolutely dominated the weekend on this track just a few days ago and it all appears to be explained by his change in drivers.  Prior to last week Woodland was losing a laughable amount of strokes OTT and it appears that he has corrected that.  This may be a case of recency bias on my part, but I can’t ignore the success with the club change so I’ll go ahead and put Woodland in the love column.

Abraham Ancer (8500) – If there were such thing as a golf-crush, I’ve got it in Double-A.  His history at The Memorial ain’t great with only a 65th and 57th over the last two years, but his ball striking is prime.  He’s finished Top 15 in his last three events.  He’s coming off of a two week layoff and I’m perfectly ok with that as I’m guessing his focal point this month was to be ready for The Memorial.  Gains in every strokes gained category, and particularly on approach.  Be weary of some chalk here, but still a solid cash and GPP play (he’s an outright play for me as well at 45 to 1).

Sergio Garcia (7800) – We know the ball striking can be elite with Sergio and we know he has plenty of upside, which includes a 5th place finish at the RBC.  Most of Sergio’s issues reveal themselves with the putter and I’m always willing to take a risk on a guy who has good GIR but needs to get hot with the putter (much like Corey Conners who I will also have a few shares of).

Harris English (7300) – This feels like an easy call at this price which is why I’m weary of it, but I respect the SG metrics too much here to be off of Harris English.  He gains OTT and on APP and can get hot with the putter.  He’s only played two tournaments since the restart and that included a chalky missed cut and a nice 17th place finish bounce back at the RBC.  Another good value play here.

Keegan Bradley (7200) – Believe it or not, Keegan led the field last week in APP.  Not exactly savvy with the putter and finished a disappointing 39th last week. If he can even moderately replicate what he did on APP and have couple hot days with the putter, you’ve got yourself a gem in Keegan.   His track record at Memorial is up and down but it includes three Top 25 finishes in the last 5 years and two Top 10 finishes in 2015 and 2016.

Lucas Glover (7100) – A great ball striker who can also drive the ball.  Glover checks most of the boxes, including the fact that he’s finished within the Top 25 in his last 4 tournaments.  In a field like this, the upside is going to be limited with Glover but he can be a cut maker and a birdie maker on the weekend.

Bernd Wiesberger (6600) – When you get down to this price range you need to look for outliers and perhaps some narrative building.  Bernd is a solid player with some solid wins under his belt, albeit on the Euro Tour.  With that said, winning matters in fields like this because I think his expectation will be that he can hang with the big boys.  He’s solid OTT and on APP and will need to have a hot putter to make the cut and do some weekend damage.  Solid punt play here.

Troy Merritt (6600) – On him last week and it paid off as he finished 22nd.   He also finished 8th at the Rocket Mortgage and finished 17th here last year.  Feels like we have a golfer who has found his stroke and is worthy of a couple shares in this punt-play range.

Again, stay tuned for much more from the Win Daily Golf Teamand tune into the Livestream tonight as I will talk golf (and much more) withMichael Rasile.  And please subscribe tothe Win Daily Podcast.  See you inDiscord!

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PGA

Workday Charity Open Final Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

Workday Charity Open Final Ownership Projections

Hello DFS Golf fans, it’s time for the Workday Charity Open Final Ownership Projections. One thing that is trending right now is the ownership % of the DraftKings Millionaire Maker. For the last three weeks the winning millionaire team came in at 13% + ownership, with at least two of the golfers at 5% each or lower. At Colonial it was 15%. The reason is that these new young Turks have no fear, one golfer this week put it best. “Normally there are 50 to 80,000 people in the galleries and walking the grounds, you hear a huge roar, like the “Tiger roar” or a huge roar for one of Bryson’s 370 yard drives. When these younger guys would hear it on the course, they’d think I have to make a move and perhaps press their game a bit, now with only the camera personnel and a few people in homes off the green clapping, there is no pressure and these new guys are showing up with their A game.” Indeed they are, with the exception of Bryson last week, most of the normal top 10 golfers have been nowhere in sight on Sunday afternoon and a new wave of younger names have replaced them. DJ also won but he was ranked 16th at the time. Time will tell if it’s an anomaly or if it’s the new way of the PGA. It is telling that the last three winners have had 13% ownership as a total group, when the average winning team has been at 15%+.

Here are your Workday Charity Open Final Ownership Projections

Mr Hovland takes the honors this week with 25% ownership as of this report. Right behind him is Patrick Cantlay at 23%, with Justin Thomas at 22%, and another Justin, Mr. Rose at 21%. Hedeki Matsuyama is at 20%. Joaquin Niemann, one of my favorites, is now at 17.5%, I may have to go underweight on him. Gary Woodland is at 15% and so is Xander Schauffele. Brooks Koepka is at 14%+ (plus means rising) along with Mark Leishman and Adam Hadwin. Collin Morikawa and Jon Rahm are at 13.5% Matthew Fitzpatrick, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed and Ricky Fowler are at 12%. Corey Conners comes in at 11.5%. Kevin Streelman, Joel Dahmen, and Scottie Scheffler are at 11%.

Coming in at 10% ownership are B. An, Harold Varner and Sungjae IM. Cameron Champ is 9.5%. Jordan Spieth and Billy Horschel are at 8.5 %. Max Homa is at 8%. Emiliano Grillo, Maverick McNealy, Russel Henley and Jason Day are at 7%. Bubba Watson is at 6%.Ryan Armour is at 5.5%. Mark Hubbard, Ian Poulter, Rory Sabbatini, Shane Lowry, Matthew Wolf and Louis Oosthuizen are at 5%.

The following golfers are under 5%:  Sebastian Munoz, Scott Stallings, Matthew NeSmith, Michael Thompson, Richy Werenski, Jhonattan Vegas, Jason Kokrak, Bud Cauley, Ryan Palmer, Keegan Bradley, Luke List, Nick Taylor, Jim Furyk, Lanto Griffin, Kyle Stanley, Tom Hoge, Troy Merritt, Carlos Ortiz, Mackenzie Hughes, Jason Dufner, Sam Burns, Dylan Frittelli, Aaron Wise, and Adam Long.

The following golfers are at or under 2%: Chesson Hadley, JB Holmes, Brandon Wu, Hudson Swafford, Charl Schwartzel, S.Y. Noh, K H Lee, Cameron Davis,Keith Mitchell, Graeme McDowell, Harry Higgs, Steve Stricker, Matt Jones, Pat Perez, Adam Schenk, Chris Kirk, PHIL MICKELSON, Charles Howell lll, Brendan Steele, Chez Reavie, Si Woo Kim, Sung Kang, Sam Ryder, Nate Lashley, Bronson Burgoon, Taylor Gooch, Vaughn Taylor, Cameron Tringale, Brian Stuard, Zach Johnson, and Andrew Landry.

Please look long and hard at the sub 5% and sub 2% owned players, there are two of them that with the right combo of higher priced players will make you a million dollars.

Please ask my self or our gifted team of writers any questions you may have in the Win Daily Sports discord channel after the reports go up. Don’t forget to check out the other great content over at WinDailySports.com, too!

As always, I hope to be with you, in the money

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