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Wells Fargo Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The PGA Tour is in North Carolina this week for the Wells Fargo Championship.  Players will need to bring the big stick as OTT game takes a major role in a successful week here.  I’ll be focused on OTT and APP and I’ll have a particular focus on proximities of 175 through 200+ as those are back in play just like last week.  While the second shot proximities remain similar to last week, the big difference at Wells Fargo is the sheer length of the course and what will be required off the tee.  Don’t completely rule out shorter hitters, but certainly give the edge or the tiebreaker to a guy that can hit it long.  Make sure you listen to tonight’s Win Daily Sports PGA show as we will bring you much more perspective on the course dynamics and each player in this field.  Now let’s get to the Wells Fargo picks.

Bryson DeChambeau (11000) – I really think Justin Thomas should be included in this article but I only want to make room for two in this elite range, so I’m going to go with Bryson and Rahm (see below).  This course gives a big advantage to OTT game and Bryson is the Captain of Team OTT.  Rest of his game hasn’t been too bad either and I think this is an excellent course fit.

Jon Rahm (10800) – Speaking of elite OTT game, Rahm hasn’t lost strokes OTT in a very long time.  He rates out 2nd OTT in this Calendar year (behind only Bryson and his APP game has been stellar as well, particularly on shots of 175-200+.  He rates out number 1 in my model.  Again, honorable mention in this range goes to JT and I should also add Webb Simpson.

Corey Conners (9200) – If you’re looking for a great ball striker who has been particularly good OTT, then look no further than the 5th ranked golfer in my model.  Only thing holding this guy back right now is the short game, but that shouldn’t hurt him too badly here.  Give me the ball striker.

Joaquin Niemann (9100) – The only issue with Niemann is he rarely puts all facets of his game together but he’s clearly an elite player just waiting for his moment.  This guy has a small frame but absolutely crushes the ball OTT.  His history at the Wells Fargo is limited and not particularly great, but I’m willing to take a chance on a good course fit and a rising star.

Bubba Watson (8300) – I’m not a Bubba guy, but he has been pretty great lately and I think this DK price is very fair.  Watson has been finishing strong lately and making cuts at the rate of vintage Bubba Watson.  His long iron and putting game has been shaky as of the last 36 rounds, but I’m willing to take a chance on Bubba, but only in GPP’s.

Emiliano Grillo (8100) – a great price for a great ball striker who has been surprisingly great OTT.  Grillo is both a GPP and cash game play as his ball striking and history at this course speak to a golfer that should probably be closer to 8500 rather than 8100.  As usual, he will need to find the putter.

Stewart Cink (7900) – Already a two time winner this year, Cink is in the midst of a great stretch of golf.  That great stretch included a takedown at the RBC and a 12th at the Masters.  Most people may think he’s not the best course fit here due to a presumed lack of length of the tee.  Cink is inside the Top 20 in driving distance over the last 36 rounds, and for the sake of context, he has been driving it longer than Jon Rahm.  The floor is low for Cink but the ceiling is quite high.

Matt Jones (7500) – As you build your lineups, you’ll find yourself in this exact price range quite often and my favorite guy in this particular range is Matt Jones.  He’s a good course fit as he has made 3 out of his last 4 cuts here and his recent history is pretty good as well, and that includes a 1st place at the Honda.

Kyle Stanley (7100) – We’re getting into the danger zone in this price range, but I’ll go ahead and lean on last week’s Secret Weapon (34-6, but who’s counting) as this course will demand a lot of the same from last week from an APP standpoint.  While he doesn’t appear to be a good course fit, his last two efforts at Wells Fargo resulted in an 8th and 13th place finish.

Adam Schenk (6800) – A simple case of riding the hot hand as he has finished within the Top 25 over the last three tournaments (for the sake of fairness, one of those tournaments was the Zurich Classic match play).  Either way, Schenk has been striking it well lately and finished 13th here the last time this tournament was played in 2019.

Luke List (6800) – Some clear deficiencies in List’s game, particularly with the putter and certain APP metrics (175-200), but the OTT game is there as he ranks 12th OTT over the last 36 rounds in this field.  In 2019 he made the cut but finished 65th and in 2018 he finished 9th.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord. Current SW record is 34-6.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com.

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PGA

Valspar Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The PGA Tour is back in Florida for one last time in 2021 and the field will be given a true test at the Valspar Championship. The Valspar is a tough course that will hurt you if you’re not in the fairway and will test all parts of your game. This week I’m focusing on APP, Driving Accuracy and ARG more than the the other metrics. As for APP, I’m taking a hard look at proximities between 175-200 and 200+ as a lot of shots will come from that range. Tune into our Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on all the golfers in this field.

Dustin Johnson (11200) – I don’t love the elite range this week, but I do like the fact that DJ will likely float under the radar at the Valspar Championship as he has been unimpressive over the last couple of months.  In spite of his recent struggles, over the last 36 rounds he still rates out 5th in my model.

Corey Conners (9600) – Will fit nicely into your cash games, but likely to garner some high ownership so be mindful of that in your GPP’s.  Conners has been striking the ball better than everyone on tour and the short game is really coming around.  He rates out very high in my model as expected.

Tyrrell Hatton (9400) – Hatton is starting to come around but he has been plagued by inconsistency.  With that said, he’s inside the Top 10 in my model and is excellent in the notable proximity ranges (long iron play).  He is a big risk ARG and that could hurt him here, unless he’s striping those irons like he has been.  I’m willing to take the leap in GPP’s.

Russell Henley (9000) – I’m looking for guys who keep it in the fairway, are great on APP and are good on APP from long distances.  Henley checks all the boxes and rates out very high on my model.  A good price here and a solid cash and GPP play.

Justin Rose (8800) – I’m a bit surprised I’m writing Rose up as I haven’t rostered him in years.  It’s pretty clear the game is coming around and he’s gained strokes in a significant manner in three tournaments in a row.  There’s no reason to believe his game won’t translate well to the tough test at the Valspar Championship so I’m happy to roster him this week in GPP’s, but I’ll stay away in cash games.

Cameron Tringale (8400) – Certainly seems like a low price for Tringale considering that his ball striking has been great all year.  Part of the reason for this low price is his terrible history at this tournament (missed all three cuts the last three times he’s played here), but I’m willing to overlook that and hope the ball striking stays in good order.

Denny McCarthy (7500) – I think Denny is a solid GPP play this week as you may be catching him early while his ball striking game begins to rise.  The putter has always been his strong suit but the ball striking has made a bit of a comeback after a terrible stretch a few months back.  He finished 9th here last year and recent form has been great.

Lucas Glover (7400) – He will need to find a hot putter to contend on Sunday, but outside of his struggles with the flat stick, he has been good.  His APP stats this year are good, but not great, but he looks like a player on the rise so I’ll ride the wave.

Rory Sabbatini (7100) – His stats don’t necessarily provide a beautiful picture, but he’s a smart and plotting player that should fit well on this course.  If history is any indication, you are getting value with Rory here as he’s finished 18th and 5th in his last two efforts at the Valspar Championship.

Kyle Stanley (6800) – Rates out 30th in my model and checks most of the boxes, particularly on APP.  The big issue with Stanley will always be the putter.  To be clear, he’s a horrible putter, but he is actually on his best putting surface at the Valspar Championship (Bermuda) so if there were a time to take a chance on putter regression with Stanley, it’s here.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and take advantage of the promotional offers at windailysports.com. 

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PGA

The Players Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The Florida swing continues with the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.  This is a 7200 Par 72 which will test your APP more than any other metric.  I’m looking for APP first and then OTT and PUTT.  Tune into our PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on the entire field and stay tuned for more articles and picks from the entire Win Daily team.  For now, let’s get to The Players Championship: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (10900) – I really like skipping this elite range all together but I’ll have a few shares of each here and there.  My favorite play is Rahm of the Big Four because his ball striking is simply great and if he can get the putter going, he could definitely win.  I also like the fact that he’s likely to be less owned than both DJ and Rory so it’s a nice way to pick up a little bit of ownership leverage right off the bat.

Webb Simpson (9500) – A great course fit who played well enough, after a long break, to finish 6th at the WGC-Workday.  Last three years here he’s finished 16th, 1st and 16th.  A very acceptable price for a high floor/high upside golfer.

Collin Morikawa (9400) – Hasn’t played here but certainly has the skill set to take this tournament down for back to back wins.  Morikawa is a star and has too much potential to ignore in this one. He finished in a tie for 7th after Round 1 of The Players last year (before it got cancelled).

Viktor Hovland (9300) – It’s possible that his unimpressive weekend will keep ownership relatively low, especially when you consider all the studs in this range.  I don’t think we need to read too much into his poor Saturday and Sunday at the API.  Hovland also finished in a tie for 7th after last year’s Round 1 of the Players.

Tony Finau (9100) – I tend to ignore Tony, but it’s getting harder and harder to ignore the ball striking and the short game.  Put simply, he rates out really well in every SG category and that makes him a great value at this price.  His track record here isn’t great but he did finish 22nd here in 2019.

Tommy Fleetwood (7900) – We will talk about the 8k range on the Win Daily PGA Livestream but I’m not a huge fan of it and I’m not going to force a pick there for purposes of this Initial Picks article.  I do think Fleetwood could easily be priced in the low 8k range.  I was impressed with what he did at API and if the irons are back to being consistent, this will be a great pick.  Last two finishes here were 5th and 7th.

Will Zalatoris (7600) – The last couple of tournaments have appered underwhelming, but the young gun continues to play well and managed to finish 10th at the API.  More importantly, he continues to pick up strokes everywhere but with the putter.  If we get the same ball striking and an average putter, WillyZ pays off his price tag easily.

Abraham Ancer (7500) – A good price for a golfer who may have recaptured some form and has proven he can hang around the top of the leaderboard on weekends.  A good ball striker who finished 12th here in 2019.

Ryan Palmer (7300) – I have to admit, this one feels a bit scary but the common trend in DFS is to underprice Palmer and I’m always looking for value.  He is generally very inconsistent and his track record at The Players establishes that with rotating MCs, but I’ll take the chance here.

Cameron Tringale (7200) – He wilted for most of the tournament at the API, but he’s a consistent golfer who is great on APP and that’s what you are going to need here. 

Emiliano Grillo (6700) – Has made three cuts in a row here and his ball striking is typically pristine.  With that said, he hadn’t been as good on APP until until the API.  If the APP and OTT game are in sync this weekend then he will make the cut and score some points over the weekend.

Richy Werenski (6400) – Closed the API in impressive fashion and ended up with a 4th place finish. He’s made 5 cuts in a row and he’s doing it with the long and short game.  He has played here twice and finished 47th and 23rd.  At this price range you’re not going to find better value.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord.

See everyone tonight on the Livestream. Don’t forget to subscribe to our Win Daily Sports YouTube page and Apple podcasts. And make sure you check out the Bettor Golf Podcast which will drop Wednesday morning.

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PGA

WGC-Workday Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The PGA Tour travels to the opposite coast this week for the first of four Florida events.  We have an interesting twist as this is the first time the Concession course will be played on the PGA Tour, and therefore, we have no course history to utilize (other than a few in this field who played this course in the NCAA championship 6 years ago).  We will focus on the typical SG metrics and recent form and we will perhaps take a few more chances than normal at this no-cut event.  Stay tuned for much more content from the Win Daily team, including our Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST.  Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for the WGC-Workday Championship.

Jon Rahm (11100) – He was excellent last week and really made a charge on Sunday but wasn’t enough to catch the leaders.  One of the best in the world T2G and in good form.

Xander Shaufffele (10800) – I’m hoping ownership is down on Xander as a result of his underwhelming finish at Riviera and associated lack of coverage.  His 15th place finish was mostly a result of being bad OTT on Thursday and bad with the putter on Sunday.  Other than that, the ball striking and game was great and Xander is very close to winning a tournament.

Bryson DeChambeau (9900) – Bryson had some rust on Thursday at Riviera, but he rounded into form on Friday.  He was atrocious with the putter on Friday losing almost 3 strokes, but he was best in the field T2G that very same day.  I see the putter regressing to the mean and I’m hoping the T2G stays true.

Tyrrell Hatton (9600) – He’s simply a great golfer.  We haven’t seen him on the PGA Tour this year, but he’s been racking up solid finishes overseas (6th at The Saudi International, 22nd at Omega Dubai Desert Classic and 1st at Abu Dhabi).  Great with the irons and the all-around game is there.

Viktor Hovland (9400) – Don’t be shocked if this guy is considered one of the best in the world at some point within the next couple of years.  His ball striking is impeccable and his short game continues to improve and this is great value at this price.

Joaquin Niemann (8100) – We are looking for upside, particularly in no-cut events, and Niemann flashed that upside for the first two rounds at Riviera and has also flashed it this year with 2nd place finishes at the Sony and the Sentry.  Don’t worry about his blow up round of a 78 last Saturday as that’s going to happen in brutal wind conditions to the best of golfers.

Will Zalatoris (8000) – This is a very good price for a great ball striker who has been consistently finishing well in stacked fields.  This week he doesn’t need to worry about lack of course history/experience because almost nobody in this field has played here.

Ryan Palmer (7200) – Another misprice for Mr. Palmer that you probably need to take advantage of.  Palmer’s betting odds are 55 to 1, which is shorter than almost everyone in the 8k range.  What does that mean?  It means the sportsbooks value him as a golfer in the upper 8k class.  Grab the value.

Abraham Ancer (6800) – Missed cut last week but keep in mind he had zero prep time as he was stuck in Texas.  Ancer’s recent form is pretty solid with the exception of a bad round here or there.  The one bad round won’t hurt him too much in this no-cut event and he has enough upside to justify at this price.

Rasmus Hojgaard (6700) – Probably will be a nice pivot off of some of the other more popular European golfers in this range.  Hojgaard has been very solid lately with 6th, 9th and 25th place finish in his last three tournaments overseas.  He’s also flashed the ability to go low (final round of Saudi International he shot a 62).

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – stay tuned to Discord.

See everyone tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Apple podcasts and Spotify and to our YouTube page. 

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PGA

The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

We remain in California for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera.  This course presents the best field we’ve seen so far in 2020 and presents the most difficult test we’ve seen as well.  You will want to focus on golfers that have a good all-around game as ARG and PUTT definitely come into play a bit more than usual.  This is a relatively long track so being long off the tee helps, but is not critical to success.  More on the course and the field on tonight’s Win Daily PGA Livestream.  See you tonight at 8:00 EST. As usual, we have a ton of content coming from the rest of the team. Let’s get started with The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks.

Dustin Johnson (11300) – He’s the best in the world.  His ball striking and short game are excellent.  His price point isn’t cost prohibitive.  Not sure we need much additional analysis on this one.  If I had to pick a guy I like next best in the elite range, it’s likely Bryson.

Xander Schauffele (9900) – Much like Cantlay (below) this guy checks all the boxes and picks up strokes in every SG category.  Even better he’s coming dangerously close to being one of the best golfers in the world with near wins (2nd, 2nd and 5th over his last three tournaments).  Solid value at this price.

Patrick Cantlay (9600) – Gains strokes in every category in a pretty significant way and has been very good lately with a 3rd, 2nd and 13th over his last three.  He has a great track record as you might expect. 

Viktor Hovland (8700) – No history here but his recent history is excellent and the ball striking metrics jump off the page.  Add to that he has significantly improved the short game and Hovland carries a ton of value.

Max Homa (8200) – A very fair price for a guy who has turned his game around and made 5 cuts in a row, which culminated in a gritty 7th place finish last week at the AT&T.  Add to that a 5th place finish last year and 37th the year prior and you likely have a safe floor with plenty of upside.

Cameron Davis (7500) – Gains strokes in every category and he’s long off the tee.  He’s only played here once (2019) and it was a missed cut.  But he finished 14th last week after having a bad Day 1 and made three cuts prior to that.  Plenty of upside at this price. 

James Hahn (7500) – A Cali guy who appears to feel right at home at this venue with a 13th, 14th and 28th place finish in his last three efforts here.  I’d call Hahn a high risk/high reward play as he is coming off an MC, 10th and MC in his last three (we, of course, had him as the SW during the 10th place finish).  With that said, he is striking the ball well and is gaining strokes in all categories. 

Luke List (7300) – A long hitter who has been pretty great with the ball striking lately.  He’s finished within the top 30 over his last three tournaments.  Interestingly, he’s also finished within the top 30 over his last three efforts on this track. 

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (7100) – Brought to my attention on Monday’s The First Cut Podcast with Rick Gehman and Greg Ducharme (and yours truly).  KH Lee has made 4 out of 5 cuts including a 2nd place finish at the Waste Management.  Further, he finished 13th and 25th his only two times on this track.

Matthew NeSmith (6900) – His APP game has been too good to ignore.  He’s not the best course fit but if the APP numbers stay true (gained 1.88 strokes on APP per round at the AT&T), then he hits value easily.

Michael Thompson (6700) – Nothing flashy about this guy, but I’ve been on him for a while now and he continues to make cuts (4 out of his last 5).  He also finished 7th here in 2019. 

Brian Stuard (6400) – No such thing as a “safe option” in this range, but if you need to dip down this low you may as well take a guy that has made 4 of his last 5 cuts and made two cuts in a row at Riviera, including a Top 25.  Stuard is gaining strokes in every category other than OTT so he’s a bargain. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/under 5% owned) – Currently 29-3 and featured Cameron Percy and James Hahn the last two weeks.  Get into Discord Wednesday night for the Secret Weapon.

Don’t forget to join us tonight on the Win Daily YouTube channel or @windailysports on Twitter.  Feel free to jump in the chat and ask any questions or submit any lineups that you want our live commentary on.  See you tonight.

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PGA

AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks

Brian Tulloch
written by Brian Tulloch

The PGA Tour is headed back to Cali for the AT&T Pebble Beach No-Am and we have another two course rotation this week between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill (three of the four rounds will be on Pebble Beach).  These two courses are relatively short but there is some benefit in being a long hitter on the gettable Par 5’s.  With that said, all types of golfers have won this event and all are in play.  My focus will be the usual APP and then OTT, but I’ll have a slightly bigger emphasis than normal on ARG as these POA greens are small and we may have some wind issues to deal with.  Join us for the Win Daily PGA Livestream for more on the picks below and many more picks from me and @draftmasterflex.  Let’s get to the AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks.

Patrick Cantlay (11300) – The ball striking metrics jump off the page relative to the field now that Dustin Johnson has withdrawn.  I think Cantlay has the most win equity in this tournament and he is properly priced.  He is also playing in his home state which should help. 

Paul Casey (10400) – He won on the Euro Tour just two weeks ago and finished tied for 8th at The AmEx.  Ball striking is classically good with Casey and it’s always the short game that trips him up.  That could happen again, but recent history and course history give me the impression he will be very comfortable this weekend.

Francesco Molinari (9300) – Speaking of tied for 8th at the AmEx, Paul Casey was tied with none other than the resurgent Molinari.  He has sported two top 10 finishes in his last two events and seems to have found the game that he completely lost last year.  I won’t be overweight on Francesco but he’s a good course fit and is playing very well.

Kevin Streelman (8900) – He seems overpriced, even in this field, but his course history here is nothing short of spectacular.  In his last 5 tournaments at Pebble he has finished 2nd, 7th, 6th, 14th and 17th.  Add to that his recent form has been very good.

Henrik Norlander (8700) – Has fared pretty well here in the past, but more importantly, is quickly becoming a very good golfer.  In his last three tournaments he has finished 22nd, 2nd and 12th and he’s been great OTT and on APP.  The short game has been average, but he more than makes up for it with the ball striking.

Cameron Tringale (8500) – course history here is below average but recent history is very good and feels like a very good fit with his APP game.  He’ll lose a little OTT but I think Tringale will be good everywhere else.  Last week in Discord, a subscriber stated that Tringale’s price was “disrespectful” and that turned out to be true.  Hoping to have him churn out another good score this week.

Matt Jones (8100) – Jones consistently makes cuts and finished 5th here last year.  His ball striking numbers could be better, but in my estimation he’s a very under the radar guy with upside.

Peter Malnati (7800) – In this tournament the 7k range becomes pretty risky, but you’re going to have to take some big swings and there’s no bigger swing than Peter Malnati who can really be erratic with his ball striking.  He can get hot in an instant and that is evidenced in his rencent history and his course history.  Plenty of upside here.

Harold Varner III (7700) – HV3 simply hasn’t been good for quite some time, but I think we saw something last week with his 13th place finish in terms of putting a full four rounds together.  If you look at the quality of this field, if HV3 can even be close to what he was last week, then he pays off his pricetag and then some. 

Scott Stallings (7500) – I’m not going to be overweight on Stallings as there are plenty of guys that I want to take shots on in the 7k range (more on that during the Livestream/Podcast), but I am a fan of Stallings in general as his ball striking and short game are both solid.  He has a missed cut here in 2020 but prior to that he had a 3rd, 7th and 14th place finish.   

Michael Thompson (7200) – He and Kirk really let me down last week but I’ll probably go back to both in some lineups.  Thompson will lose strokes OTT but should gain in other areas.  His course history includes a 10th place finish in 2019 but also three missed cuts surrounding that.  A hunch play for me as I liked the form he exhibited prior to last week’s missed cut.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – I purposely did not include any 6k golfers in this Initial Picks article because I think this range is very bad this week.  I would avoid this range entirely if you can, other than the Secret Weapon of course, which will be in Discord Wednesday night.  You can also tune into tonight’s Livestream for more on 6k golfers to consider.

Thanks for reading my AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks! Make sure to check back with Win Daily Sports all week for more content. See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST for the Win Daily PGA Livestream with Michael, Joel and myself. 

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PGA

Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

I’m very excited to arrive in Phoenix for multiple reasons, not the least of which is that we only have one course this week and we likely won’t have much by way of weather concerns.  This is definitely a ball strikers course with a premium focus on SG APP.  Being good OTT helps as always but this is a second shot golf course so I’ll be focusing on those metrics along with the typical focus upon recent form and course history.  Join me and Michael Rasile and the King of Showdowns, Joel Schrek, at 8:00 tonight for all of our DFS plays as we do our typical deep dive.  We will also be hitting you with our customary first round leader and outright bets (which I’ve hit two weeks in a row).  Let’s get to the Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (11200) – A guy who consistently lands in the Top 10 with the upside for a takedown.  Rahm rates out 4th T2G and while he picks up more strokes OTT versus APP (I’d prefer the opposite here) I think he’s in great form and he’s coming home to a course he’s probably played a ton. 

Xander Schauffele (11000) – Like most DFS players, I get Xander wrong more than I get him right.  With that said, I really like what I saw from Xander last week on a course he usually can’t get right.  Last week he had to battle just to make the cut and then kept chipping away until falling into 2nd place.  There are guys with better course history than Xander and Rahm, but there my guys this week in the elite range.

Daniel Berger (9600) – Another guy with very good course history who is really rounding into form.  Right before the break he was trending to average but since then he’s finished 10th at Sentry and 7th at Sony.  I think his upside includes a 1st place finish, particularly if he finds a hot putter, which he has been known to do.

Will Zalatoris (9000) – This new kid on the block appears to have all the tools to compete with the best and he showed that last week, a feat particularly impressive since he had zero course experience at Torrey Pines.  Zalatoris doesn’t have a lot of PGA rounds under his belt, but the rounds he does have pop off the page particularly on APP. 

Russell Henley (8200) – Last time I thought this guy was a “safe play” he missed the cut at the American Express.  Henley dominates on APP, but a closer look shows that said domination occurs about half the time.  His track record here is hit or miss and his recent history is hit or miss, but if he’s hitting his irons right you are getting great value at this price.

Corey Conners (7900) – Corey is definitely part of team no-putt, but his ball striking is elite relative to the others in the 7k range.  He’s been a regular Top 25 finisher over the last few months, including a 10th at the Masters and a 10th at RSM.

Henrik Norlander (7500) – I’m always careful not to chase last week’s points and that’s certainly in play here, but the upside is too much to pass up with Norlander.  He was excellent last week with a 2nd place finish and 12th place right before that at The American Express.  The ball striking has been great and it looks like this guy has turned a corner.

Emiliano Grillo (7300) – Did someone say team no-putt?  Unfortunately Grillo is a captain of that squad but his ball striking is elite and I’m going to hope that he finds a warm putter (a “hot” putter is probably asking too much).  His course history here is average at best, but I still see him as a great value here.

Michael Thompson (7200) – Don’t look now, but Thompson might be the most underrated golfer in this entire field.  He’s got four top 25’s in the last four tournaments including a 5th at The American Express.  His ball striking has been very good lately and while he loses OTT, I expect him to pick up strokes everywhere else.

Sebastian Munoz (7100) – Once I’m down in this range I’m really looking for upside and that’s exactly what Munoz offers.  He can get really hot and can carry your DFS roster for at least a few days.  I’ll take some shots here.

Joel Dahmen (6800) – Joel does not have a good course history here and his recent history isn’t much better, but this is more of a hunch play as I believe in his game OTT and on APP and think he can be a big time scorer if he finds his game.  I’ll warn you that I won’t have many shares of Dahmen but I do love the upside.

Davis Riley (6100) – Another new kid on the block, but this guy is even newer than Will Zalatoris.  And by the way, in 2020 he absolutely crushed it on the Korn Ferry Tour with Will Zalatoris.  The KFT is no joke and I think this could be a diamond in the rough, but it’s not an SE or 3max play, it’s more of an MME play.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – tune into Discord Wednesday night.

See everyone tonight on the PGA Livestream on our YouTube page or on Twitter @windailysports and be sure to check out all of the PGA content at windailysports.com and in Discord. Thanks for reading my Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks.

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PGAPremium

AMEX Final Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

AMEX Final Ownership Projections

Hello and welcome to our AMEX Final Ownership Projections! If there was ever a week where you wanted to play long shots, and use your heart over analysis, this would be that week. The last two winners were a combined 700 to 1 to win, (Andrew Landry and Adam Long) and in the last ten years, 4 of the winners were listed as “the field” or “others.”  Going back to its inception, the average for all winners was 125 to 1.  Six of the last ten winners either missed the cut the previous week or did not play at all. This doesn’t mean I want you all to go out and roster Bo Van Pelt (8 missed cuts last 8 tourneys) but it does allow you the freedom to look at golfers with greener stats and longer odds.

Monday morning all the Golf writers got together and started brain storming for this week, we started on the AMEX the second Kevin Na dropped the winning putt in for the Sony. From then on, with Sia’s initial look article, the livestream with Michael, Sia and Joel and articles from Patrick, Antonio, Isaiah and myself,  Win Daily Sports has you covered until lock on Thursday morning. Speaking of the livestream, allegedly the staff has been a little hard on Harry Higgs. His mom called and said stop calling him fat, this weekend the announcers mentioned he looked like a “yesteryear golfer.” I asked her if he had been a bowling pro before he took up golf, and told her it’s kind of tough when you see him standing, all alone, on a street corner, and a cop walks up and says, ”all right, everybody break it up.” Let’s take a look at our Amex Final Ownership Projections !

Scottie Scheffler leads the pack at 29.92% ownership, Vegas loves him, so does about a third of GPP players, I hate rostering guys at 30% +, and I will have shares of him, he is made for this course, next up is, Surprise (!!!) Patrick Reed (???) at 28.7%, someone needs to back off the cough syrup, Patrick Cantlay is third at 26.7%, it’s supposed to be between him and Scheffler, (see first paragraph). Abraham Ancer is next at 23.6%, I liked him a lot until I saw his ownership%, only sprinkles for you Abe!

Tony Finau and Sam Burns, (Burns is a tout favorite) are next at 19.50%, Sungjae Im comes in at 18.6%, Russel Henley is 17.8%, we take a pretty good drop to Brooks Koepka at 13.4%, Cameron Champ, who I like, is 12.6% followed closely by Matthew Wolff at 12.4%.

Michael Rasile is the new president of the Taylor Gooch fan club, and is enjoying seeing Goochie at 11.3% (say it twice and everyone will look around for a toddler) Charley 3 sticks is 11.2% (CH lll). Doc Redman is 11.1%, yes please, Patton Kizzire and Joel Dahmen are tied at 10.8%, the writers like both these guys. Si Woo Kim is 10.5%, sneaky, Brian Harmon is 10.3%.

Golfers Under 10% Owned:

Chris Kirk and Charley Hoffman are tied at 9.8%, Charley and Kirk are trending upward. Sepp Straka is 9.7% and one of my favorites. Cameron Davis is 9.6%, Aaron Wise is 9.4%, and I really like him this week. Adam Long, a recent winner, is 8.9% along with Cameron Tringale, Sia likes Tringale, John Huh is 8.6%, blech, Kevin Na, who ended up making me money last week (even though  it took him all week) is 8.5%.

Emiliano Grillo, Kevin Streelman and Brendan Steele are all at 8.1%, we go down a bit to Zach Johnson at 7.7%, Paul Casey is only 7%, but a question mark, Lanto Griffin is 6.7%, Adam Hadwin is 6.6%, he up is being talked up on the live streams and Joel loves him this week, Peter Malnati is 6.2%, Keegan Bradley is 6.1%, drop a little more to Rickie Fowler, who Michael “mustache “ Rasile’s grandma likes, remember that “key” narrative, James Hahn is 5.1%

Golfers Under 5% Owned:

Max Homa, who I will have shares of, is 4.8%, Wyndham Clark is 4.7%, Maverick McNealy is 4.6%, Mark Hubbard is 4.5%, Gary Woodland and Denny “putts” McCarthy are 4.4% owned, Martin Laird is 4.3%, sneaky and risky, Ryan Moore is 4.2%, Andrew Landry and Matt Jones are 4.1%, Nick Taylor is 3.9%, Tom Hoge is 3.8%, Alex Noren, a Joel favorite is 3.7%, Scott Piercy is 3.4%, Patrick Rodgers and Vaughn Taylor are 3%, Eric Van Rooyen, Lucas Glover, Michael Thompson and Uh hum, KRAMER HICKOK are 2.9% , keep reading…… JT Poston, KH Lee, Fransisco Molinari, Luke List, Charl Schwartzel and Scott Stallings are 2.5%, B An, Russel Knox and Chez Reavie are 2.2%, Doug Ghim is 2%.

Golfers Under 2 % Owned:

Phil Mickelson, at 8800 salary, seriously? don’t even go there, is a whopping 1.8% owned, Brian Stuard, last weeks money making secret weapon and Rory Sabbatini are 1.7%, Austin Cook is 1.6%, why not? Chesson Hadley and Hudson Swafford are 1.4%, Kristoffer Ventura is 1.3%, Adam Schenk is 1.2%, Bo Hoag and Robbie Shelton are 1% owned. All other golfers at the time of this report are under 1%, including Jim Herman, Ryan Armour, and Chase Seiffert at .96%

ARE YOU READY! TO MAKE MONEY! TO CRUSH THE SLATE! “SUPER” SIA’s SECRET WEAPON IS…(insert male gonads grooming ad here)
Kramer Hickok, 6700, 2.8% owned, get ready to make your screen go green, 26 wins 2 misses, WHAT A RECORD, bigger than Elvis, and nice hair, that’s “SUPER” Sia and his SECRET WEAPON for the week.

By the way, they say silence is golden, last night on the live stream it was kind of a rusty brown, with ooze……..and it was a great show packed with good info to crush your particular tourney. It’s every Tuesday night at 8 EST with Michael, Sia and Joel. Do not miss it! 

I will be up in Discord as soon as this is published to help with roster construction, player metrics, course fits, and any questions you may have. Please don’t miss our Win Daily Sports articles by Sia, Antonio, Isaiah, and Patrick, who will be back after his Morikawa quest, or not less than 4 or more than 7 years if he gets caught.

Thank you to all the members who take time to review this, we appreciate it, and work hard for you, from the staff to Jason, we are here to help you make money, and have a little fun as well.

I hope to be with you, in the money, on Sunday afternoon.

Steven/Sicily Kid

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PGA

Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks

Josh Matigian
written by Josh Matigian

Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks

The Win Daily PGA team will be bringing you the customary content this week and the website and Discord chat are sure to be active over the next 24 hours.  Below are my Initial Picks for the Mayakoba and these picks incorporate recent form, course history and the appropriate strokes gained metrics (and maybe a hunch or two on golfers I’m expecting to surprise some people).  As for the metrics to focus upon, I’m looking for drivers that are accurate off the tee and APP and PUTT.  You do not need to be long off the tee on this course and that brings a few more golfers into the mix that can truly contend here. Tune into our Livestream tonight (and every Tuesday night) at 8:00 EST for more on these golfers and many more. Here are my Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks.

Brooks Koepka (11000) – Game is certainly rounding into form with a 7th at the Masters and a 5th at Houston and he feels like a great pivot off what will be a very chalky Justin Thomas.  If you want to roster JT instead of Koepka, that’s fine, but just know JT is likely to carry about 10% more ownership.  More on that with the @SicilyKid article on Wednesday and in Discord.

Viktor Hovland (9700) – His track record here doesn’t inspire confidence (two missed cuts) and he hasn’t been as good with the irons lately as I’d like, but I believe in his game too much to pass him up in this field.

Will Zalatoris (9200) – This guy is just red hot.  He’s been excellent OTT and even better on APP.  Add to that his last five tournaments he’s finished 16th, 5th, MC, 8th and 6th.  A nice finish here may get him into the OWGR Top 50 which automatically qualifies him for the 2021 Masters.

Corey Conners (9000) – His track record here isn’t good, but I’m willing to overlook that because his recent form has been great (three Top 10’s in his last four tournaments).  The strokes gained metrics add up as well as he has been great OTT and on APP.    

Carlos Ortiz (8900) – He’s been good with the ball striking lately and relatively good with the short game.  Add to that his recent form is obviously good with a 1st place in Houston and the fact that he finished 2nd here last year. 

Emiliano Grillo (8300) – If this man could ever get the putter going, his price would consistently be in the mid 9k range in fields like this.  The ball striking has been very good, particularly on APP.  Other than Houston he’s been easily making cuts and he’s made four cuts in a row here.

Joel Dahmen (8000) – We’re looking for scorers and this guy can get hot in a flash.  He’s high risk and high reward at times and when it unravels it can get bad, but his upside is too good for me to pass up. 

Doug Ghim (7400) – He’s been excellent on APP and solid with the short game, and oh yea, I picked him as 1st Round Leader on the Plantation course at the RSM and it hit (bang!).  He’s got three Top 25’s in the last three tournaments.

Austin Cook (7300) – He let us down at the RSM with an MC, but was very good prior to that.  He’s accurate OTT and can get hot on APP.  Has flashed enough recent upside for me to have him in some lineups.

Brice Garnett (7000) –Some questionable recent form for Garnett, but what you can’t question is how much he likes this track as his last four here he’s finished  11th, 5th, 25th and 7th.  Add to that he’s typically accurate OTT and we may be in the perfect spot for Garnett to pay off his price and then some.

Ryan Armour (6600) – I’m going to do my best to avoid the 6k range but if I need to dip down here, I think Armour is a great course fit.  He is a short hitter which immediately makes him relevant on this course and he is also typically accurate OTT which should set him up well on APP.  He’s made three cuts in a row here.

Secret Weapon (less than 6k/less than 5% ownership) – Tune into Discord on Wednesday.

See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST on the Livestream @windailysports on Twitter or on our Win Daily Sports YouTube channel.

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PGA

The CJ Cup: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The CJ Cup: Initial Picks

Two weeks in Vegas sounds like a bad idea, but here we are at a no-cut event in Shadow Creek.  This is a new location for the CJ Cup which normally takes place in South Korea.  Therefore, you can go ahead and ignore prior history as it was not on this course. We have also already seen DJ and Tony Finau withdraw the the event. Shadow Creek is characterized as a long course but the length is minimized by the altitude.  There are plenty of water hazards and the rough may be high so you’re going to want some accuracy with your length and good play around the green will also prove to be helpful here, so here are our The CJ Cup: Initial Picks. Don’t forget to join the Livestream TONIGHT (Tuesday) at 8:00 EST.

Jon Rahm (11300) – Hard to pick among the upper crust this week as they are all very deserving to be put in your lineups, but I prefer Rahm’s all around game, particularly what he can do OTT.  Justin Thomas is my honorable mention as far as my favorite top play.

Xander Schaufele (10300) – Looking for good all around game and Xander checks all the boxes.  He has also been in great form which includes a 5th place at the U.S. Open.

Matthew Wolff (10000) – I would normally be a bit hesitant to take a guy who just lost in a playoff, but I don’t think anything really affects the former rookie class of Wolff, Morikawa and Hovland.  They certainly don’t seem like the new kids on the block and I’ll be on them again this week.  Wolff’s ownership likely to be high.

Tyrell Hatton (9600) – Coming off a win last week in Europe, Hatton is a guy that can go low on any given day.  He’s in good form and he gains strokes in every metric with APP being the best of those metrics.  Ownership may be down a bit because Hatton just won and had to travel quite a bit in the last couple of days. 

Collin Morikawa (9500) – I’m guessing Collin’s stock is dipping now that he’s starting to miss cuts and that means it’s the perfect time to take him.  I must admit, I’m a touch worried about his game right now, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if he turns it around on his home turf in Vegas.

Viktor Hovland (9000) – An incredible ball striker who still has a questionable short game.  Definitely willing to gamble on this guy as right now he’s probably the most forgotten of the ‘Rookie Three’ and I think it’s a good time to pick up shares.  His ownership is tracking at well below that of Wolff and Morikawa but still above 10%.

Abraham Ancer (8200) – Ancer was pretty terrible down the stretch of last season, but seems to have recalibrated last week with a 4th place finish.  This guy seems to start FedEx Cup seasons well and he should be a good course fit with his OTT and APP game.

Brendan Todd (7900) – Certainly not long OTT but always seems to be around on Sundays.   Ownership should be low as there are plenty of ‘sexier’ options in this range.

Russell Henley (7100) – Good enough OTT and great on APP and gains ARG.  Henley has been particularly good on APP recently.  Henley may have limited upside but has the game to put up scores that outpace his price.

Ryan Palmer (6700) – I have no issue jamming Palmer into a lineup in a no-cut event.  He’s usually good for at least one great day (and one very bad one) and that’s the type of scenario that could really pay off this week. 

Adam Hadwin (6700) – Great ball striker who has a great track record in the desert.  He shot super low last Saturday and followed it up with a bad Sunday.  The bad Sunday (and resulting 34th place finish) is hopefully what most will remember and that should keep ownership low.

Secret Weapon – See you in Discord.

Thanks for checking out my The CJ Cup: Initial Picks! Don’t forget to join us tonight, check out the other great articles up on Win Daily Sports, and please also subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast!

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