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DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Justin Thomas ($11,100) – I don’t understand the reduction in ownership after everyone wanted him at the Masters, and it is not as if he burned the industry during his eighth-place result. Thomas ranks inside the top-10 in six of the eight categories I ran, and I like that he is currently projected to be sub-13 percent.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,000) – Patrick Cantlay dominated the Masters tee-to-green but was undone by a putter that lost 5.77 shots entering Sunday. Everyone forgets Cantlay was the hottest player in the world a few months ago, and I love the idea of getting a reduction in price and ownership.
Other Consideration – I thought I was going to like Dustin Johnson ($10,500) entering the week, but the reverse line movement in odds and every matchup is extremely troublesome. Johnson has a negative trajectory in upside in my model, and I think I prefer pivoting elsewhere at this moment.
$9,000 Range
Corey Conners ($9,700) – I have nothing negative to say about Shane Lowry; I just would prefer moving up to Patrick Cantlay for $200 more when push comes to shove, but Corey Conners is likely my first real consideration in the $9,000 range. The Canadian has posted back-to-back top-20 results at the venue, and his weighted off-the-tee game places him second in this field.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,500) – Matt Fitzpatrick was 122nd on my model when I first ran numbers for weighted proximity, but the mistake I think I had initially was that data would be equally bad at any track. That clearly doesn’t make logical sense as someone that has proven he loves Harbour in the past, and I saw a massive correction in my data when I ran my numbers for straight approach play over the last two years. In my opinion, Fitzpatrick has some of the best safety and ceiling for anyone below $10,000, and I think you can get unique in other spots if you start with him near the top.
Sungjae Im ($9,200) – Sungjae Im looks like the forgotten about elite golfer in the $9,000 section. The irons have been hit-and-miss over the past few months, but I think we get as much win equity as anyone we have spoken about so far – just at half the ownership.
Russell Henley ($9,000) – The ownership will be up there for Russell Henley, but I think he is good chalk. Henley grades fourth in this field from an upside perspective and is the top player in the event when looking at his approach stats.
Other Targets: I noticed Daniel Berger ($9,600) and Joaquin Niemann ($9,100) were massive underdogs in all their matchups. That doesn’t mean the offshore books are correct, but it provides me some concern when Fitzpatrick is nearly -180 against Niemann.
$8,000 Range
Webb Simpson $8,800 – Stixpicks is in Jamaica for his honeymoon. There is nobody to stop me from playing Webb Simpson!!!
Billy Horschel $8,700 – Billy Horschel is a quiet sleeper. His form has been excellent after posting five top-16 finishes in a row before the Masters, so let’s not be too critical about his 43rd-place showing at Augusta. That is not a course that suits his game, and I expect the Horschel of the past two months to be back and firing at Hilton Head.
Si Woo Kim $8,400 – It has become a weekly entry that Si Woo Kim makes my player pool. The ownership looks good. The form is excellent. And I think he eventually gets himself back in the winner’s circle before long.
Tommy Fleetwood $8,200 – It doesn’t take much to move Tommy Fleetwood into the top-10 of my model. Last year’s missed cut was a fluke when we dive into the route he took to not playing the weekend, and his Friday blistering pace provided the upside that is possible when he puts all the pieces together.
Other Thoughts: I don’t mind Kevin Kisner ($8,100), but I likely won’t have a ton of exposure elsewhere.
$7,000 Range
I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.
Kevin Na ($7,800) – Kevin Na is the largest climber in my model for weighted tee-to-green, jumping from 83rd at a random track to 11th.
Brian Harman ($7,700) – It is hard to ignore the influential money that I respect betting Brian Harman. I am not necessarily as high on him as some, but his course history makes a ton of sense for why he might find another solid showing.
Tom Hoge ($7,600) – If Tom Hoge remains around 15%, I might pivot elsewhere. He is more volatile than the public realizes.
Ian Poulter ($7,500) – Ian Poulter has similar win equity to Tom Hoge at half the ownership. I like both options, but it is worth noting.
Erik Van Rooyen ($7,300) – The current form does leave something desired, but I think this is a good spot for him since he tends to find more success when you remove the driver from his hands. The South African ranks 25 places better in my reweighted tee to green stat versus a random course, and he also has the par-five scoring and iron proximity that you would hope to see.
Charles Howell III ($7,100) – We talked about Charles Howell III some on the PGA Draftcast. The American provides intriguing leverage.
Additional Thoughts: I am going to condense down my core. There are a few other players I am targeting, but I am going to be more aggressive with a higher percentage of the field making the weekend.
$6,000 Range
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Joel Dahmen ($6,800), Cam Davis ($6,800) – be ready for chaos if you play him. Dead last is in play. Brendon Todd ($6,800), Michael Thompson ($6,500)
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