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PGA DFS Picks: Tour Championship at East Lake

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’ Championship at East Lake, helping you find some winning teams in GPPs!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Just 30 golfers & no cut
  • Players starting “scores” are determined by their FedExCup positions (-10 thru even par)
  • The course: East Lake Golf Club (Atlanta, GA)
  • Par 70: 7,319 yards – Donald Ross design (renovations have made it tougher over the years)
  • Bermuda Greens
  • Long par 3s and 4s
    • Other Ross courses with correlative success: Sedgefield, Plainfield, Aronimink Golf Club, Oak Hill, Pinehurst #2.
    • Weather expected to have minimal effect this week
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Par 4s Gained (450-500)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $10,000 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $15,200) – Pricing is crazy this week because of the starting scores, with DJ carrying a two-stroke lead over Rahm. I won’t be using him as much as Rahmbo, JT and Webb, but I’ll have a few shares.

Jon Rahm (DK $12,700) – Rahm and his $2,500 discount from DJ make a good starting point for both cash games and GPPs this week, as he’s coming in strong after a big win over his rival and the helpful starting score should keep him from having any meltdowns. My pick to win.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,000) – It’s a little tough to trust JT after his recent struggles, but the fact that he’s been quiet should make him a better GPP play because of recency bias. He’s got a great record at East Lake and should be in contention Monday unless it all goes bad.

Also consider: Webb Simpson (Cash or GPP), Bryson DeChambeau (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $9,900):

Daniel Berger (DK $9,100) – I’m not as interested in Rory (status undetermined following the birth of his child) or Hideki, but Berger is playing with a purpose right now and he’s coming in just six shots off the lead with a solid discount.

Xander Schauffele (DK 8,900) – Xander makes for a fine building block in the upper-middle range because of his affinity for the course (runner up last year as the eight seed and winner in 2017) and consistency in scoring at this venue.

Harris English $8,700) – We’ve seen English vault from an also-ran to the Tour Championship behind excellent ball-striking and putting, and that’s what it takes to win here. The glaring lack of weakness in his overall game makes him a solid play at East Lake.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,600) – We’ve seen Todd jump out to early leads at the start of tournaments, so starting a few back shouldn’t have too much of a detrimental effect on him. His game checks all the boxes this week, so if he can make up some ground the first couple days, we could see him with a legitimate chance at winning the Tour Championship.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Tony Finau

Value PGA DFS (DK $5,500 to 7,400):

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7,000) – A competitor who plays some of his best golf against difficult fields, Hatton won at the Arnold Palmer on a slightly similar course and ranks well in SG: Approach. He’s a staple of both cash and GPP lineups and his putter usually fares well on Bermuda greens.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $6,300) – The elite ball-striking ability matches up quite well with the other players in this price range, and he’s coming off a solid performance at the BMW. I love him this week.

Abraham Ancer (DK $6,100) – When Ancer is dialed in, he makes for a huge-upside GPP play, which is how I’m be deploying him this week. His iron play can yield big results and help gain strokes against the rest of the field, so he’s a huge bargain at this price.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $5,200) – The up-and-down sand save on 18 last week got him in this event, and I’ll be happy to roll him out in his maiden Tour Championship voyage. The Canadian is 10 strokes back right now but comes at a huge discount and has Top 10 upside.

Also consider: Kevin Kisner, Viktor Hovland (GPP), Lanto Griffin

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BMW Championship – Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

BMW Championship – Initial Picks

Down to the final 70 players for the FedEx Cup which means two things:  there is no cut and most of the field will be gunning to get into the Top 30 to qualify for the final event.  We will have way more on this tournament from the WinDaily team within the next 24 hours, and of course, we will be bringing you the Livestream tonight (Tuesday night) at 8:30 pm with Michael Rasile and Joel Schrek.  The Livestream will also feature 1st Round Leader bets, outright bets and matchups. Here are our BMW Championship – Initial Picks.

Justin Thomas (10800) – JT checks all the boxes.  Before the restart I dubbed JT the best player in the world and I think he finishes the FedEx Cup on top when it’s all said and done.  Since the restart JT leads the field T2G.  He didn’t have a great tournament with the putter last week, but expect a rebound in that department.

Webb Simpson (10100) – Doesn’t get the respect he deserves and that is absolutely fine with me as I will keep firing.  He’s in great form and coming off a 3rd and a 6th place finish.   I have no issue if you want to start your team in this range.

Scottie Scheffler (9000) – We’ve always known that Scottie can pile up DFS points, but now he is actually contending among the elite tier of golfers.  He has been the best player T2G over the last month.  His price continues to creep upward but he’s still worth the pricetag considering the form he is in.

Tony Finau (8700) – We know Finau can get hot and go low and we also know that he can buckle under pressure.  Therefore, a no cut event would appear to be a good situation for Tony and at this price he doesn’t need to be Top 3 to justify the selection.  I will point out that he is 29th in the FedEx Cup Standings.

Adam Scott (8200) – Very unimpressive 58th place last week, but he can attribute some of the poor days to a lack of play since the restart.  With that said, he’s finally playing two tournaments in a row and he sits at 36th in the FedEx Cup standings.  I think Scott will be particularly dialed into making that Top 30 and I expect a good showing.

Matthew Wolff (8200) – Shot a laughable 77 on Saturday at the Northern Trust but had a nice rebound performance on Sunday with a 67.  Wolff, Morikawa and Hovland are only a handful of players that actually have some recent experience on this course (from their amateur days which were literally just two years ago) and I expect all three of them to play well here again. 

Viktor Hovland (8100) – With only 70 players in the field I’m looking for a golfer that can get hot on any given day and Hovland continues to prove that he can do that.   The reason I have selected only two of the Fab three (I have excluded Morikawa) is simply a product of value and that is exactly what you’re getting with Hovland.

Ryan Palmer (7600) – Yes he will have the occasional blow up rounds but he has been very good since the restart, including four made cuts in a row with two Top 10’s in that span.  It’s interesting to note that Abraham Ancer (7700) has played the same exact last four tournaments as Ryan Palmer (Northern Trust, PGA, WGC and Memorial) and Ancer’s best finish during that span is 15th and his other three finishes were MC, 43rd and 58th). 

Talor Gooch (6600) – I was on the Gooch last week and it paid off with an 18th place finish.  He’s been Top 25 in his last two and appears to be on the rise.  Definitely value at this price.

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/less than 5%) – At some point I’m going to be wrong on the SW pick, but it’s been two months and it hasn’t happened yet.  See you in Discord for the next installment.

Thrive Fantasy

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Thrive Fantasy! As I said I like Tony Finau and you can grab the UNDER on his total PARs and BOGs Prop. You can also take advantage of Tiger needing to do well, and Bryson shooting under a 67! Check them out and use promo code “windaily” when you sign up for some extra bonuses. Learn how to play here on our quick over.

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PGA DFS Picks: Northern Trust at TPC Boston

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Northern Trust Open helping you find some winning teams in DraftKings GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Smaller tournament field of 124 Golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
  • Stacked playoff field
  • The course: TPC Boston
  • Par 71: 7,308 yards – Arnold Palmer design and Gil Hanse/Brad Faxon redesign
  • Penn 4-A Bentgrass Greens (Bentgrass fairways as well)
  • Smaller-than-average greens
    • Favorable weather expected, so no major imbalance in the draw
    • First time Northern Trust is at TPC Boston, so course history should be for Dell Technologies, which has been hosted at this course
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Fairways Gained, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Birdie or Better %, SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bentgrass)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,100) – Longer hitters tend to fare well here, and Bryson actually notched a victory on this course in 2018 at the Dell Technologies. Without too much penal rough to stymie Bryson if he misses fairways with his accurate blasting approach, Bryson – who may be the best putter among the highest priced players as well – makes for the best high-priced GPP play with winning upside.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,800) – Rory has good course history at TPC Boston, and while he’s playing sub-par golf in comparison to his lofty standards (and the rest of the expensive guys), this should be a comfy place to rebound – as it plays to all his strengths. I may even try to squeeze in a few Rory/Bryson teams with all the capable golfers in the $6,000 to 6,500 range.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,000) – Another top performer with winning upside, Rahm could easily win this thing if he’s firing on all cylinders. Solid ball-striking and a complete short game mean he’s one of my favorite plays in any format.

Also consider: Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Jason Day (DK $9,300) – Day’s ball striking, putting and overall game look like he’s returning to his form from a few years back, and he’s a great play in all formats. A world-class player with a great attitude, he’s bound to be popular – but I just can’t fade him.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay’s past few tournaments have been marred by poor putting and usually one bad round thrown into the mix. He chekcs all the boxes, so if he can get the putts to roll in, he makes for a great play in single-entry and large-field GPPs.

Patrick Reed $9,000) – He’s definitely going to be popular, so he fits best in cash games – but there’s definitely enough upside to go all-in with him here since he’s striking the ball pretty well.

Tony Finau (DK $8,800) – Finau’s tee-to-green numbers(10th on tour) are excellent this season, and like Bryson, his tendency to mis fairways shouldn’t burn him too badly here. A solid shot at a Top 10 and plenty of winning upside, and one of the only options I really like in the $8-9K range.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $8,000) – The missed cut at the PGA could keep his ownership low, but we all know how good this guy is. Normally the Englishman in this price range I’m most intrigued by is Matthew Fitzpatrick, but he might struggle here as a first-timer. Hatton is a better ball striker and he finished T12 in 2018 at his TPC Boston debut. At just $8K, he’s going to be hard for me to avoid.

Matthew Wolff (DK $7.900) – The talent and competitiveness of Wolff make him a plausible GPP play with winning upside, but I’d likely stay away from him in cash games, because it’s his first go-round in Boston.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,600) – A few weeks ago, I wouldn’t have considered Champ, but a closer look at his improved play around the greens makes me take notice.

Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash) Tiger Woods (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Paul Casey, Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer, Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner, Harris English

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – He feels super risky even with the price drop, but Lowry has the game to finish in the Top 15 or so and continue his playoff dreams. A tough competitor who won’t have to deal with bad weather this week, the Irishman will be among my GPP value plays.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Varner looks like a much better player every week, and he seems to be getting used to competing against the best. Another guy who is often plagued by one or two bad rounds putting, Varner could be ready to make the jump and stick around for a few playoff weeks.

Doc Redman (DK $7,400) – Redman is rolling lately in the SG: Ball Striking category, and he’s maturing with his short game. There’s clear upside in his game and the mustache seems to be working its magic.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – Leishman plays well in stronger fields and has some recently impressive course history (third place in 2017, T21 in 2018), so he’s a solid GPP wild card.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,000) – With more top 10 upside and ball-striking ability than many of the other players in this price range, Niemann is a risky pick but could play well here if his putter doesn’t completely abandon him.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,200) – Another solid ball-striker, Hadwin will make a few of my Rory/Bryson builds so I can find some value in this $7K range. He’s Canadian, so the switch back to Bentgrass should help.

Bud Cauley (DK $6,600) – Among this group of players who’ve fared poorly in stronger fields or have seen their game evaporate in recent months, Cauley stands out as a confident player who could fare well at this venue.

More value golfers to consider: Matt Kuchar (Cash), Ryan Palmer (Cash), Joel Dahmen, Max Homa (GPP), Emiiano Grillo (GPP) Kevin Na (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes,

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Talor Gooch (DK $6,500) – He’s a birdie maker with some GPP upside, but the competition makes for tougher sledding. Still – he’s one of the safer options in this depressed price range, so he’s a great choice for all kinds of builds.

Sepp Straka (DK $6,300) – Straka is hitting more greens this year and making more birdies. He’s a risky play (and he missed the cut last week) but we’ve seen him step up his game and the switch back to Bentgrass should help his putting.

Additional GPP punts: Rory Sabbatini, Pat Perez, Charley Hoffman, Matt Jones, Matthew NeSmith

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PGA DFS Picks: PGA Tour’s Wyndham Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Wyndham Championship helping you find some winning teams in GPPs! All prices for DraftKings.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full tournament field of 150+ Golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties
  • Only nine of the Top 30 golfers in the world, so a weaker field with some stars
  • The course: Sedgefield Country Club (Greensboro, NC)
  • Par 70: 7,127 yard – Donald Ross design
  • Bermuda Greens
  • Not incredibly long, with eight par 4s between 400-450 and two reachable par 5s
    • We’ve seen a 59 here (from Brandt Snedeker in 2018’s Rd. 1), and wind not a huge factor in the Carolina burbs, so expect receptive greens and low scores
    • RBC Heritage a good course comp (in terms of crossover success)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Par 4s Gained (450-500),

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Brooks Koepka (DK $11,400) – He fizzled on Sunday but remains one of the most talented golfers in any field – especially when something’s on the line. I’d steer clear in cash games but I love him for GPPs.

Webb Simpson (DK $11,200) – The course history here is bonkers (he’s won here and has a bunch of top fives), and Webb, who even named his daughter Wyndham – I’m not joking – easily makes for the best cash game play in the field.

Justin Rose (DK $9,900) – He’s a first-timer at this venue who made 20 birdies last week and finished in ninth place. With the weaker field I’m perfectly happy targeting him in GPPs and hoping for a Top 5 finish.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Paul Casey

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Harris English (DK $9,300) – I’m having a difficult time making lineups without English this week given his upside, his consistent play over the past year, and his current form. He checks all the boxes and makes for a fine play in all formats.

Brendan Todd (DK $8,900) – Todd is riding a birdie streak where he’s made at least 14 birdies over his four rounds in five straight tourneys. He had a missed cut at the RBC heritage the week before that, but it’s obvious he’s turned a corner and belongs in this pricing tier.

Si Woo Kim (DK $8,800) – The price (and lack of recent top 10s) will undoubtedly scare off a few folks, but Kim has made seven straight cuts, has won here (2016) and finished in fifth place at this event last year.

Sergio Garcia (DK $8,500) – I expect guys like Reavie and Kisner and Snedeker to be popular this week in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, but I really love Garcia’s upside here. He finished T5 at the RBC Heritage and people easily forget just how low he can go.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,300) – Kisner is bound to be chalky this week given his performance at the Wyndham Championship and form, so my ownership will depend on just how popular he gets. There’s certainly plenty to like about his chances for a Top 10

J.T. Poston (DK $7,800) – The 2019 winner absolutely dismantled this golf course last year, and people are getting too scared of his form (T75, T30, MC, MC, MC). He likes the course and finished T8 at the RBC Heritage in June, so I’m fine using him in GPPs.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,600) – Varner, who is one of my favorite plays this week and should be comfortable returning to the Carolinas, made the cut last week (T29) after being added as an alternate. I love his ball-striking this season and there’s no reason he can’t post a Top 15 at Sedgefield CC.

Also consider: Billy Horschel, Jordan Spieth (GPP), Chez Reavie, Brandt Snedeker, Ryan Moore, Russell Henley, Christian Bezuidenhout, Maverick McNealy, Tom Lewis (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,500) – He’s a solid cash game play with plenty of favorable course history, and his play – while spotty over the past several weeks – does show some upside for GPPs as well.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,300) – Last week we had Henrik Stenson (MC) at $7,300, but now we get Norlander, who’s still massively underpriced with respect to his recent play.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,300) – He missed the cut at the PGA but this course is more his wheelhouse. He’s 4-for-4 here since 2015 and I’m much more comfortable with him in this price point.

Bud Cauley (DK $7,200) – Cauley was a late addition to the PGA and he fared well. In this event, he actually has some Top 10 upside at a very low price, and his confidence has been improving over the past few weeks. He can make birdies in bunches, which is what we need at this low-scoring event.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,100) – I’m jumping right back on the Straka train after the made cut in a difficult field at the PGA championship. His T33 at the RBC Heritage tells me he could land a Top 25 finish here, which could work in single-entry GPP and for cash games.

Cam Davis (DK $7,000) – I’d steer clear in cash games, but for large-field GPPs you might need a low-owned gem like Davis, who has put together a T12 at the recent 3M Open, a T32 at last week’s Barracuda, and a 22nd place finish at the Wyndham last season.

Ryan Armour (DK $6,800) – Another streaky player I wouldn’t touch in cash games, Armour has had some success at this venue in the past (T4 in 2017, T8 in 2018 and T22 in 2019) and notched two straight top tens before missing three cuts in a row.

Brice Garnett (DK $6,700) – The veteran nabbed a sixth-place finish here last season and is a feast-or-famine GPP play who is playing some solid golf this year as well with four Top 30 finishes in his last seven tournaments, including a T17 at the RBC Heritage.

More value golfers to consider: Matthias Schwab, Danny Willett (GPP), Jim Furyk, Aaron Wise, Mark Hubbard (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – The putter holds him back, but his T2G stats are decent enough to warrant consideration this week. His last name makes me hungry for a lucrative GPP finish, not just a big sandwich.

Seamus Power (DK $6,400) – Another birdie-maker who misses some cuts but posts a lot of Top 35 finishes if he’s around for the weekend, Power has 60 birdies and an eagle in the three tourneys he made the cut among his last four events. Sign me up.

Fabian Gomez (DK $6,400) – Gomez was T3 at the Barracuda last week with 22 birdies over four days, highlighted by a closing round 63, and he finished T13 here in 2019 – good signs for a golfer under $6,500.

Brian Gay (DK $6,200) – He played poorly here last season but a T6 finish at the Wyndham in 2018 could bring back some decent memories. Gay is a longshot to have another Top 10, but if he can cut down on his bogeys, he stands a chance at a decent result for near minimum price.

Additional GPP punts: Tyler Duncan, Harry Higgs, Peter Malnati

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PGA

WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational Ownership

Patrick Waters
written by Patrick Waters

WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational Ownership

Hello everyone, last week was something, 8 out of the top 10 salaried golfers missed the cut, and a golfer who hasn’t seen a trophy in almost eight years took the honors. DraftKings had more 0/6 entries than 5/6 entries. This field is loaded with talent, salaries are much softer, and you don’t have to sweat the Friday night cut, they will all play 4 days this weekend. Here is our breakdown of the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational Ownership.

Ownership percentage is key to building the winning team. The formula held steady as the new millionaire last week had a total of 14% ownership, and although he didn’t have both low golfers at 5% or under, he had one at 4.9% and the other was 6%. Five of the last six new millionaires had 13% total ownership, and this past weeks 14%. Let’s get to the projections.

Xander Schauffele leads this week at 19.8 % ownership. Webb Simpson is next at 17.9%. Both Patrick Reed and Justin Thomas are 17.5%. Rory is next at 17.2%, Tyrrell Hatton is 15.9% followed by Victor Hovland at 15.5%. Patrick “Sharps” Scott’s candidate for Joe Biden’s running mate, Collin Morikawa is at 14.9%, followed by Jon Rahm at 14.4% and Abraham Ancer at 14%. Daniel Berger is 13.6%, a favorite of mine, followed by Mr. Top 10 Tony Finau at 13.3%, next up is Gary Woodland at 12.9%, Tommy Fleetwood at 12.5%, Hideki Matsuyama and Chez Reavie are at 12%. Matthew Fitzpatrick is 11.9%, Bryson DeChambeau is 11.5% Scottie Scheffler and Sungjae Im are 11%. Brooks Koepka is down to 10.5%, Paul Casey is next at 10%, Sergio Garcia is 9.8%. The mighty Dustin Johnson has dropped all the way down to 9.4% along with Matt Wolff, Joaquin Niemann, Adam Hadwin and Max Homa. Matt Wallace is 9%, along with Marc Leishman, Ricky Fowler, and Billy Horschel. Ian Poulter is 8.5%, so is Henrik Stinson. Corey Conners, like by some of the writers is 8%, so is Jordan Spieth, and Jason Day. Brendan Todd is 7.5% owned. Matt Kuchar is 6.8% owned, with Louis Oosthuizen, Bubba Watson and Kevin Streelman at 6.5%. Shane Lowry is at 5.7%, next is  Kevin Kisner, Danny Willett, and B. An at 5.5%

The following groups are where if you find the right two players to go with your team, you could be 500,000.00 richer. The 5% and under group:

Michael Thompson, last weeks winner is 5%, so is Christian Bezuidenhout, Joel Dahmen, and Nick Taylor is just under at 4.6%. Cameron Champ is 4.5%, as is Phil Mickelson and JT Poston and Eric Von Rooyen. Mackenzie Hughes is 4% along with Brandt Snedeker. Coming in at 3.5% are Bernd Wiesberger, Cameron Smith and Tom Lewis. Keegan Bradley is 3% along with Rafa Cabrera Bello. Robert Macintyre and Hao Tong Lee Are 2.5%.

Coming in under 2% are the following golfers: Tyler Duncan, Jason Kokrak, Matt Jones, Graeme McDowell, C.T. Pan, Victor Perez, Sung Kang, Lucas Herbert, Shaun Norris, Andrew Landry, Jazz Janewattananond, and Sebastian Soderberg.

Picks for this week for the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational Ownership:

Last week Sia, one of our senior writers, put out Adam Schenk as his secret weapon, he was 6900, no one owned him, and he finished in eighth place. There aren’t enough zeros on a calculator to figure that value. An outstanding pick, bringing him to an unbeaten record of 3-0 on his SW (secret weapon) picks, which is remarkable because they’re all cheap, under owned, and they produce big time value. SIA ROCKS !!!
Six weeks ago I introduced a player to the writers and he did really well for three weeks then we went to other golfers. I am very proud that Sia’s secret weapon pick this week is Tyler Duncan, who I wholeheartedly endorse. He’s 6200, owned by .97 of the field, less than 1% and he can make a few zeros difference in your teams placing.  Again that’s TYLER DUNCAN.

In the top range two golfers I really like are Justin Thomas(10,700) and Daniel Berger (9600) honorable mention goes to Xander (9800) the only reason he’s not a top pick is his 20% ownership, he has to win to get good value.
In the mid range I really like Gary Woodland (8600) and Matt Wolff (7900) with honorable mention going to C. Conners (7300)
In the low range I like Chez Reavie (6700) and Ryan Palmer (6700)

My out in left field player is Nick Taylor, he has impressed even with a star studded field, he can play with them, he’s only 6100 and under 5% owned.

Weather related: there is some talk of high winds during the tourney, my weather picks are Max Homa and Shane Lowry, if the wind comes these golfers can still score.

The projections are key to getting you the low owned players to gain leverage on the entire field, and keep you in that sweet zone for the biggest prize. The picks are intended to assist you in choosing the best teams possible to maximize your return on investment. The writers and I will be on the Discord Channel after this report is published for any questions or team building assistance. Please read all the articles on Win Daily Sports golf for additional key information to help you.

As always, I hope to be with you, in the money.

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PGA

Isaiahs Protocol: WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational

labatts2225@gmail.com
written by labatts2225@gmail.com

The PGA Tour heads to Memphis, Tennessee for The WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind. This course plays as a par 70 and measures right around 7,250 yds. 78 of the best players in the world were invited to play in this 4 round, no-cut event. TPC Southwind has seen more balls in the water than any other course on tour. Bogeys will be abundant and birdies will be hard to come by as our golfers have their work cut out for them as they prepare for the PGA Championship next week in San Francisco. As always, ball strikers will be prevalent in our search for the cream of the crop. This will also mark the first time since the break that we see Bermuda grass on the greens.

FavorableStatistics (in order of importance)

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Around The Greens
  • Birdie or Better %
  • Strokes Gained: Par 4’s
  • Driving Distance

We’relooking to find golfers that can nail their shot approaching thegreens. Great ball strikers, that are accurate off the tee and canprovide some distance, is also a plus. The greens in Memphis are verysmall so we want to keep our eye out for guys that can get up anddown well (SG:ARG).

Strategy

With 78 of the best golfers in the world teeing it up at The WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational, and no-cut, I’m seeing ownership spread out fairly evenly throughout the top 20 golfers. I believe a good percentage of DraftKings entrants will opt for a balanced type build to their lineups. While this is fine for cash game purposes, I think using a “Stars n Scrubs” type approach may find some leverage in GPP (guaranteed prize pool) entries.

CashGame Golfers

Throwingownership out the window, we just need to find 6 golfers that willconsistently produce enough through all 4 rounds. We don’t needthese guys to win outright as we’re looking for a nice balance ofproduction to get us in the top 50% to make some money in our cashgames.

Avoiding the top 5 golfers on DraftKings to save ourselves some salary, let’s start our cash game builds in the $9K range.

Webb Simpson ($9900) Webb finished 2nd here last year. He may not be long off the tee, but his iron game is almost always on point.

Xander Schauffele ($9800) Xander has a narrative of performing well at WGC events. While he may have one bad round during the week, give this guy 4 rounds and he’s a sure thing to finish in the top 20 at the very least.

Tyrrell Hatton ($9700) Hatton doesn’t play a lot, but when he does he consistently puts up great numbers and finishing positions.

Tommy Fleetwood ($8700) While he may have looked rusty in his return to the PGA tour last week, he also showed flashes of excellence. This salary is a gift for one of the best golfers in the world.

Gary Woodland ($8600) Gary seemed to have fixed his issues with the driver and is always a threat to contend in major-like fields.

Adam Hadwin ($7200) He might not win The WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational but he’s a consistent producer at a salary that allows some of the more expensive guys.

GPPGOLFERS

Ownershipbecomes a much bigger factor here. The larger your field ofcontestants is, the less ownership you’re going to need to bedifferent from your competition. Be careful not to sacrificeproduction for name recognition while searching for a gem to get youinto the top 20% of your contest for a chance at some serious money.You’re going to have to risk a little more here to be rewarded.

Rory McIlroy ($11200) Rory hasn’t won since the Covid break, but he seems to be inching closer and closer to the leader board in every tournament. Finishing 5th in the last WGC event in Mexico, I like Rory to reclaim his status as the #1 golfer in the world this weekend with a win here.

Sergio Garcia ($8000) While Sergio’s ownership seems to be steadily rising, I was discussing with some of the other pro’s this morning that his stats have him coming in FIRST OVERALL in my models. Garcia’s game is looking better than I’ve seen it in years right now. He will never be a great putter but seems to favor Bermuda greens to the point where he actually, barely, gains strokes putting. If he can even get to average with his flat stick, look out for a ceiling game from him this weekend.

Sungjae Im ($7500) I get that Sungjae has lost strokes on approach in his last 5 tournaments. This has NEVER happened before in his career. He’s also never been priced this low, in his career, as he’s easily one of the top 20 golfers in the world. He rarely takes weeks off so I’m hoping that while he was on his vacation last week he found some answers to his iron game, which is generally one of his strongest weapons. He also favors Bermuda greens. Sky’s the limit at this salary if Sungjae has his game again. Gotta catch the train before it leaves the station as I don’t think we EVER see him priced this low again.

Kevin Na ($7500) If you can withstand the possibility of an early withdraw due to back issues, Na is almost always in a position to contend on Sundays. He finished 9th in the bloodbath at the Memorial last week, 5th at the Travelers, and 9th at the last WGC event in Mexico. Currently sitting at 5% ownership and dropping, the risk/reward here is worth a look.

Value

Bubba Watson ($7100) Bubba continues to pop in my models, I continue to write him up and play him, and he continues to fail me. Watson’s strength is long par 4’s which should land The WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational right in his wheelhouse. Unfortunately, the rest of his game replicates something I see from my kids at pitch n putt on Saturday nights. Nevertheless, I’m going back to the well one more time to see if Bubba can anchor my team to the promised land.

While there are some other value guys I have my eye on, I really don’t think it’s necessary to dive to far below $7K this week unless you’re really trying to cram some studs in your lineup. Hit me up in Discord and I can give you my thoughts if you see fit.

Feel free to mix and match, and choose your spots wisely. Its our goal at WinDaily to teach EVERYONE a formula to playing DFS so that we ALL succeed. The BEST overall strategy I can give you would be to join our family in the Discord chat rooms as we discuss, and break down our favorite plays even further.

Thrive Fantasy

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Thrive Fantasy! As I said, I like Rory to reclaim #1 in the world and you can grab the under on his 66.5 player prop. Check them out and use promo code “windaily” when you sign up for some extra bonuses. Learn how to play here on our quick over.

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Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the 3M Open and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS pricing is elevated for everybody this week with such aweak field, but we’ve got a bunch of viable picks for you to build a winner.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats, article and more!

Don’t forget to hop into the Win Daily Sports Expert Chat to talk one on one with our DFS and Betting Pros and check their articles out on the site!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Weak but full tournament field of 156 golfers
  • Only second time playing this PGA event, so not much course history
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • The course: TPC Twin Cities (Minneapolis)
    • 7,441 yards, Par 71 – Arnold Palmer/Tom Lehman design/consult
    • Bentgrass Greens
    • Course features 27 water hazards and 72 sand traps
  • 2019 3M Open shares correlation with 2020 Rocket Mortgage
  • Ball-striker’s course
  • Defending champ: Matthew Wolff (-21)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Ball Striking, SG: Off the Tee; Eagles Gained, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Par 5s Gained (550-600), Birdie or Better %

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Tony Finau (DK $10,900) – It’s hard to say how he’ll react to Saturday’s collapse and subsequent Sunday struggles at Jack’s place, but this course sets up well for him with its wider-than-normal fairways and advantage to better drivers. He’ll certainly be hitting more greens this week at a course where he fared well in 2019.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $10,500) – Fleetwood has as much upside as the top three (more expensive) golfers and ownership shouldn’t be through the roof considering he’s breaking the seal after the layoff. I’ll be overweight in GPPs and he’s my favorite golfer in this price range.

Paul Casey (DK 10,100) – Casey’s price has gone up over $2K since last week, when he missed the cut, so we might see the masses afraid to plug him in. He’s floating to the top of the models and makes sense in all formats – just keep an eye on ownership.

Bubba Watson (DK $9,900) – The WinDaily writers’ group text has been replete with comment’s about Bubba’s viability at this venue, and I’m on board for a few GPPs, where his last couple tournament performances (and an elevated price) could scare off the faint of heart.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – The man with one of the best – and coolest-looking – moves in golf is the defending champion, and I imagine could see massive chalk. But I can’t find a good reason to fade him at this point. Wolff played well last week in a much tougher test and seems like a darn good Top 10 bet with obvious winning upside. One of the best bets to repeat at a golf tournament in quite a while.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson(GPP only)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Lucas Glover (DK $9,400) – Glover has been steadily rising as a more and more dependable DFS play in the past month or so, and he’s now tasked with justifying the highest price tag he’ll probably see this year. His 3M resume includes a course record-tying 62 in last year’s tournament and a T7 finish.

Harris English (DK $9,000) – A cash game staple and solid value given his slew of Top 20s this year, English might get popular. He was cleared to play after a positive COVID test and finished T13 at the Memorial.

Erik van Rooyen (DK $8,800) – Van Rooyen seems to be the definition of the feast-or-famine GPP play given his tendency to Top 20 or MC, but I’ll take a shot this week on a course where his skill set seems to match the venue.

Doc Redman (DK $8,700) – Redman hits greens and ranks well in both SG: APP and SG: OTT. With three top 25s in his last four starts (MC last week), he’s a fine play in all formats.

Henrik Norlander (DK $8,600) – The price has jumped over $2K this weekafter I featured him in my plays at $6,500 or under, but a course geared toward ball strikers, there’s no reason to get off him and his red-hot putter.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,900) – Straka struggled on Saturday and Sunday at the Memorial but will enjoy the scoring opportunities that will inevitably come at TPC Twin Cities. He’s a “birdies-in-bunches” type of player who does well off the tee.

Scott Stallings (DK $7,600) – Stallings is modestly priced at $7,600 and for a guy who’s 12 for 16 on the season and should play all four rounds with Top 15 upside, that’s not terrible. He checks a whole bunch of boxes and I’ll have shares in all formats.

Also consider: Sam Burns, Luke List,Patrick Rodgers, Max Homa, Jhonattan Vegas, Will Gordon, Dylan Frittelli

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Troy Merritt (DK $7,400) – The T8 at the Rocket Mortgage sticks out as a selling point (along with solid overall play this season), and he finished T7 at the 3M last year. I’m more than comfortable rostering him in all formats given his Top 10 upside.

Charles Howell III (DK $7,400) – There’s cause for concerngiven his current form, considering his last top 15 came in January well before the layoff. But CH3 is an obvious course horse who checks most of the boxes this week and is available at a significant discount.

Ricky Werenski (DK $7,400) – Werenski is popping on the models and made the cut in last year’s event. He probably lacks winning upside but seems to be playing consistent golf these days.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $7,300) – I’m once again looking at the Rocket Mortgage finishers, and Ventura posted a T21 in what was a pretty steady week. The Norwegian Korn Ferry regular could surprise some folks this week in a relatively weak field.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale is one of my GPP specials this week, and he’s decent risk-reward bet for a Top 25 given his most recent finishes.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100) – You know the story on Grillo – the putter just needs to be better than terrible for him to make the cut, and decent-to-good for him to make a run at the Top 10.

Brice Garnett (DK $6,900) – Garnett is another golfer that either shows up to play or bombs out, with three MCs and three Top 20s in his last six tournaments.

More value golfers forGPPs: Charley Hoffman, Wyndham Clark (WD risk, back), Tom Hoge, Aaron Wise,Talor Gooch, Scott Piercy, Adam Schenk, Jason Dufner, Harry Higgs

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – If the rib injury isn’t a problem, Percy could give us a memorable DFS week at such a low price.

J.J. Spaun (DK $6,500) – Spaun’s ability to make birdies sets him apart from some of the other chumps in the $6-7K range. Far from a DFS lock, I’ll sprinkle him into GPPs.

Seamus Power (DK $6,500) – Another birdie-maker who can crank it out there, Power finished T12 at the Rocket Mortgage and is among my favorite plays in this value range.

Additionalpunts: Roger Sloan, JoshTeator, Derek Ernst, Arjun Atwal, Angus Flanagan

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PGA

The Memorial Golf Ownership Preview & Picks

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

The Memorial Golf Ownership projections are a key factor when creating your lineups for tournaments. So lets take a look at the numbers.

Hello everyone, it’s time to pick your poison, and based on the The Memorial Golf ownership % the 9K group is almost all at 20% or higher. If you can stay away from the 9 K group, a hard option to let go of, it offers you a 20-25 % leverage over the field unless one of them wins. Let’s get down to the numbers. These numbers are as of this report, and again expect a push from the 9K field.

Patrick Cantlay leads the field at 22%+ (+ is rising ) followed by Abraham Ancer at 21%, and The Man, Tiger Woods, rounding out the top 3 at 20%.

Jon Rahm is next at 18%, Xander Schauffele, Gary Woodland, and Victor Hovland are 16.5%, Webb Simpson is at 16%, Rory McILroy is 15.5% and Bryson DeChambeau is 15%+, along with Daniel Berger and  Hideki Matsuyama. Justin Thomas is 14.5 % and Paul Casey, a late bloomer has blossomed up to 13.5 % Joaquin Niemann is 12.5%. Rickie Fowler along with pal Dustin Johnson are 11.5%. Last weeks winner and Patrick “Sharps” Scott’s favorite pick Collin Morikawa is only 11% along with Patrick Reed and Kevin Streelman.Brooks Koepka is at 10.5%

The players at 10% include Adam Hadwin and Sergio Garcia and Billy Horschel.Lucas Glover is 9.5%. Harris English is 9% along with Jason Day, and Tony Finau. Matt Kuchar and Matthew Fitzpatrick are 8.5%. Ian Poulter is 8%. Corey Conners, Sungjae IM and Mark Leishman are at 7%. Jordan Spieth, Kevin Kisner, and Scottie Scheffler are at 6.5%, Justin Rose and Danny Willett are at 6%. Doc Redman is at 5.5% Kevin Na and B An are at 5%

The sub 5% group includes Brendan Todd and Max Homa who are on the border at 4.75 % Sepp Straka, Keegan Bradley, and H Varner lll are at 4%, along with Brendan Steele. Chez Reavie is 3.5%, along with Taylor Gooch. Troy Merritt is at 3% along with Shane Lowry, Louis Oosthuizen, Jim Furyk, Matthew Wolff and Cameron Champ. Coming in at 2.5% are Joel Dahmen, Bubba Watson, Emiliano Grillo, Phil Mickelson, Lanto Griffin, and Maverick McNealy.

The sub 2% group includes Bud Cauley, Zach Johnson, Bernd Weisberger, Tyler Duncan, Hao Tong Li, Carlos Ortiz, Sebastian Munoz, Eric V Rooyen, Nick Taylor, Jason Kokrak, Jason Dufner, Tom Hoge, Andrew Landry, Mackenzie Hughes, Steve Stricker, Branden Grace, Matt Wallace, Patrick Rodgers, Brian Stuard, Scott Piercy, Mark Hubbard, Dylan Frittelli, CT Pan and Vaughn Taylor along with the lower tiers not named.

My best value pick is Adam Hadwin, based on his metrics and ownership for this course. I also like Webb Simpson this week, and believe Gary Woodland will be in the mix.

My lower tier picks include Harris English, Troy Merritt and Lucas Glover.

My out in left field play is Ryan Moore, and last weeks pick,Nick Taylor.

As always, I hope to be with you, in the money and I hope The Memorial Golf ownership projections helped you pick wisely.

Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

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