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The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

We remain in California for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera.  This course presents the best field we’ve seen so far in 2020 and presents the most difficult test we’ve seen as well.  You will want to focus on golfers that have a good all-around game as ARG and PUTT definitely come into play a bit more than usual.  This is a relatively long track so being long off the tee helps, but is not critical to success.  More on the course and the field on tonight’s Win Daily PGA Livestream.  See you tonight at 8:00 EST. As usual, we have a ton of content coming from the rest of the team. Let’s get started with The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks.

Dustin Johnson (11300) – He’s the best in the world.  His ball striking and short game are excellent.  His price point isn’t cost prohibitive.  Not sure we need much additional analysis on this one.  If I had to pick a guy I like next best in the elite range, it’s likely Bryson.

Xander Schauffele (9900) – Much like Cantlay (below) this guy checks all the boxes and picks up strokes in every SG category.  Even better he’s coming dangerously close to being one of the best golfers in the world with near wins (2nd, 2nd and 5th over his last three tournaments).  Solid value at this price.

Patrick Cantlay (9600) – Gains strokes in every category in a pretty significant way and has been very good lately with a 3rd, 2nd and 13th over his last three.  He has a great track record as you might expect. 

Viktor Hovland (8700) – No history here but his recent history is excellent and the ball striking metrics jump off the page.  Add to that he has significantly improved the short game and Hovland carries a ton of value.

Max Homa (8200) – A very fair price for a guy who has turned his game around and made 5 cuts in a row, which culminated in a gritty 7th place finish last week at the AT&T.  Add to that a 5th place finish last year and 37th the year prior and you likely have a safe floor with plenty of upside.

Cameron Davis (7500) – Gains strokes in every category and he’s long off the tee.  He’s only played here once (2019) and it was a missed cut.  But he finished 14th last week after having a bad Day 1 and made three cuts prior to that.  Plenty of upside at this price. 

James Hahn (7500) – A Cali guy who appears to feel right at home at this venue with a 13th, 14th and 28th place finish in his last three efforts here.  I’d call Hahn a high risk/high reward play as he is coming off an MC, 10th and MC in his last three (we, of course, had him as the SW during the 10th place finish).  With that said, he is striking the ball well and is gaining strokes in all categories. 

Luke List (7300) – A long hitter who has been pretty great with the ball striking lately.  He’s finished within the top 30 over his last three tournaments.  Interestingly, he’s also finished within the top 30 over his last three efforts on this track. 

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (7100) – Brought to my attention on Monday’s The First Cut Podcast with Rick Gehman and Greg Ducharme (and yours truly).  KH Lee has made 4 out of 5 cuts including a 2nd place finish at the Waste Management.  Further, he finished 13th and 25th his only two times on this track.

Matthew NeSmith (6900) – His APP game has been too good to ignore.  He’s not the best course fit but if the APP numbers stay true (gained 1.88 strokes on APP per round at the AT&T), then he hits value easily.

Michael Thompson (6700) – Nothing flashy about this guy, but I’ve been on him for a while now and he continues to make cuts (4 out of his last 5).  He also finished 7th here in 2019. 

Brian Stuard (6400) – No such thing as a “safe option” in this range, but if you need to dip down this low you may as well take a guy that has made 4 of his last 5 cuts and made two cuts in a row at Riviera, including a Top 25.  Stuard is gaining strokes in every category other than OTT so he’s a bargain. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/under 5% owned) – Currently 29-3 and featured Cameron Percy and James Hahn the last two weeks.  Get into Discord Wednesday night for the Secret Weapon.

Don’t forget to join us tonight on the Win Daily YouTube channel or @windailysports on Twitter.  Feel free to jump in the chat and ask any questions or submit any lineups that you want our live commentary on.  See you tonight.

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PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (or No-Am)

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full field of 156 golfers
  • Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
  • 2020 winner: Nick Taylor (-19)
  • The courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links (host) & Spyglass Hill GC (one round)
    • PB: Par 72, 7,051 yards; SH: Par 72, 7,041
    • Course comps similar to last two: Torrey Pines and Scottsdale
    • No third course, no amateurs this year
    • Poa annua greens
    • Iron and wedge play, short game (chipping & putting) most important because of short par 4s and small greens
    • 6/6 golfers making the cut will be harder this week with larger field
    • Wind also a factor on these coastal courses (it’ll blow harder on the weekend), and weather looks bad this week (55-50 degrees with showers possible)
  • Recent winners include some scrubs and veterans (Taylor, Phil Mickelson in 2019, Ted Potter in 2018)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4s: 350-400, Par 5s Gained, Proximity from 100-150

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Patrick Cantlay (DK $11,300) – A California native who is No. 1 on my model (Dustin Johnson was No. 2 but he WD), Cantlay checks all the boxes this week and LOVES this putting surface (my model ranks him at No. 75 SG:P overall, but No. 19 on Poa over his last 100 rounds). He’s got a single-digit ranking in six of my 10 focus stats, and he’s far and away my favorite to win. I can’t find a reason to fade him – ownership be damned – so I’m considering a 100 percent lock button in GPPs and I’ll wait for Sia or Joel to talk some sense into me.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,100) – Berger is the better option of the other two golfers priced above $10K this week, the other being Paul Casey and his ice-cold putter. We can use Berger in all formats, including cash, although there may be a way to get Cantlay and plenty of other consistent cut-makers in there without breaking the bank. There’s no real weakness to Berger’s game and he only ranks higher than 33rd in one category: Proximity from 125-150 yards.

Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – Last week was an important one for Spieth, because he found himself in contention on Sunday. Now he’s back on a course where he’s won and that shares more than a passing resemblance to the kind of second-shot courses he excels on. He’ll be popular in all formats, so I may choose to fade him in single-entry GPPs for leverage.

Jason Day (DK $9,500) – His resume at Pebble Beach (11-for-11 with nine Top 15s) is the best in the field outside 50-year-old Mickelson, and despite two missed cuts in his last two tournaments, he does have two Top 15s since the start of November. We saw Brooks Koepka find his magic last week after a couple of MCs, and we know that he and Day share more than a few similarities as dogged competitors.

Also consider: Paul Casey (GPP), Will Zalatoris (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Kevin Streelman (DK $8,900) – Streelman notched a T22 last week with four sub-70 rounds at TPC Scottsdale, he’s got a sparkling record at Pebble Beach (three straight top 10s including a solo second last year), and he’s No. 6 in my model. I’ll be using him as a staple in my single entry, though I imagine he’ll be popular as the “almost too good to be true” pick of the week.

Max Homa (DK $8,800) – Homa isn’t quite as attractive as Streelman at this price in the mid-range, but he does have some upside at this venue (T14 and T10 in his last two tries here) and his birdie-making ability and prowess on Par 5s puts him in the GPP conversation. I’ll have some exposure, but there’s no reason to go all-in.

Henrik Norlander (DK $8,700) – You can’t argue with Norlander’s recent results (T12-T2-T22 in his last three events), but the best he’s finished at the AT&T is a T25 last year. It’s very possible he’s figured something out (SG:APP is No. 12 in the field) and we know he likes this Par 4 distance and approaches from 125-150. Norlander could get popular for his recent play, but as long as he’s not over 15 percent we should be okay.

Phil Mickelson (DK $8,600) – On courses over 7,100 yards I wouldn’t consider playing Lefty in a field this size, but he’s notched three straight top-three finishes at the AT&T, including a win in 2019, and there’s just no reason to assume that he’s not coming here to win again. His ownership appears to be holding at under 10%, and he knows these courses like the back of his hand. Why not?

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,500) – Tringale is popping at third overall on my model, though I’ve seen that happen before in events where he’s missed the cut. I’m a little worried about how his talents translate to closing on Sunday, and he’s struggled at Pebble Beach in the past, with only one top 50 in his last four tries. Far from a cash gameplay, I’ll have some shares in GPPs because he should play well here eventually.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $8,000) – My boy Rusty LOVES NeSmith, but he didn’t get into any PGS DFS action last week so he missed out on Matthew’s T7 finish. The model doesn’t hate NeSmith this week (No. 51 overall), and he debuted here last season with a T11, but the biggest concern is how his less-than-stellar short game will handle these small greens.

Russell Knox (DK $7,800) – Knox has two top 15s at this event in the last three years and ranks very well in SG: APP (No. 6 in the field) when the wind is blowing moderately or harder. We know his putter can let him down, but I’ll be mixing him into some GPPs at this affordable price. Knox looks even better to me when I think about the conditions: he’s got a fine draw and he’s solid in this windy/rainy stuff.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,600) – McNealy loves the poa annua surface and seems to fare well when he’s hitting greens – a true GPP-only birdie-maker if there ever was one, but his approach game from 100-150 leaves much to be desired. Still – if the putter can get going and he can re-live some of the magic of last years’ T5 at this event, the sky’s the limit.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Sam Burns, Cameron Davis (GPP), Brendan Steele (GPP), Andrew Putnam, Brian Harman, Matt Jones (GPP), Chris Kirk, Brandt Snedeker, Peter Malnati, Harold Varner III, Nick Taylor

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Scott Stallings (DK $7,500) – Stallings isn’t an exciting play, but he’s a veteran grinder who likes the event (solo third in 2018 and solo seventh in 2017) and he’s right around the cutline in my model this week. I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.

Jim Furyk (DK $7,400) – The model loves Furyk and he hasn’t missed a cut in forever. Like Mickelson, this is a course that favors his strengths and he’s far from finished on the Tour. The absurdly low price is a welcome invitation for any format.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,300) – Moore is somehow at No. 4 on my model, but is form is awful and the course record doesn’t inspire me much. I’d restrict him to multi-entry GPP and low exposure at that, but he’s on my radar. He gets a little weather bump for his decent numbers on windy coastals.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,200) – Higgs played well in his AT&T debut last year (T18) and we know he can get it done on the greens. He’s not the best ball-striker but he fares on week on Par 4s this distance and he’s a wild card play.

Scott Piercy (DK $7,100) – The conditions this week could favor a golfer like Piercy, who’s played well at this venue in the past three seasons (all top 20s with a T10 in 2019). There’s no reason to lock him into all your lineups – but get some exposure to this tour vet and thank (or curse me out) later.

Brian Gay (DK $6,600) – Once we get under $7K, the pickings are slim, but Gay is one of my go-to GPP punts – a guy with enormous winning upside despite regularly posting terrible results. A poor man’s Brandt Snedeker without the elite short game, he just seems to love playing here and on courses with small greens – with five straight made cuts in the AT&T and two top 10s in his last three tries here.

More value golfers to consider: Charley Hoffman, Stewart Cink, Michael Thompson (GPP), Nate Lashley, Bronson Burgoon, Ryan Armour, Chesson Hadley (GPP), Vaughn Taylor, Troy Merritt (GPP), Kevin Chappell

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tyler McCumber (DK $6,500) – He’s No. 67 on my model, and while his upside is far lower than a guy like Brian Gay, he’s made his last two cuts and has shown glimpses of decent golf. He also finished in the top 35 here last season so I may mix him into one or two of my 20 max GPPs.

Nick Watney (DK $6,200) – The situation under $6,500 is pretty dire, but Watney stands out as a player who’s had success here in the past (solo second place in 2015 and T14 in 2017) and despite eight straight missed cuts, he’s No. 21 on my model this week. I’m a little freaked out by it, but I may work him into 1/10 large-field GPPs.

Additional punt options: Rob Oppenheim, Grayson Murray, Jimmy Walker, Vincent Whaley, Chris Baker, Matt Every

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PGA

AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks

Brian Tulloch
written by Brian Tulloch

The PGA Tour is headed back to Cali for the AT&T Pebble Beach No-Am and we have another two course rotation this week between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill (three of the four rounds will be on Pebble Beach).  These two courses are relatively short but there is some benefit in being a long hitter on the gettable Par 5’s.  With that said, all types of golfers have won this event and all are in play.  My focus will be the usual APP and then OTT, but I’ll have a slightly bigger emphasis than normal on ARG as these POA greens are small and we may have some wind issues to deal with.  Join us for the Win Daily PGA Livestream for more on the picks below and many more picks from me and @draftmasterflex.  Let’s get to the AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks.

Patrick Cantlay (11300) – The ball striking metrics jump off the page relative to the field now that Dustin Johnson has withdrawn.  I think Cantlay has the most win equity in this tournament and he is properly priced.  He is also playing in his home state which should help. 

Paul Casey (10400) – He won on the Euro Tour just two weeks ago and finished tied for 8th at The AmEx.  Ball striking is classically good with Casey and it’s always the short game that trips him up.  That could happen again, but recent history and course history give me the impression he will be very comfortable this weekend.

Francesco Molinari (9300) – Speaking of tied for 8th at the AmEx, Paul Casey was tied with none other than the resurgent Molinari.  He has sported two top 10 finishes in his last two events and seems to have found the game that he completely lost last year.  I won’t be overweight on Francesco but he’s a good course fit and is playing very well.

Kevin Streelman (8900) – He seems overpriced, even in this field, but his course history here is nothing short of spectacular.  In his last 5 tournaments at Pebble he has finished 2nd, 7th, 6th, 14th and 17th.  Add to that his recent form has been very good.

Henrik Norlander (8700) – Has fared pretty well here in the past, but more importantly, is quickly becoming a very good golfer.  In his last three tournaments he has finished 22nd, 2nd and 12th and he’s been great OTT and on APP.  The short game has been average, but he more than makes up for it with the ball striking.

Cameron Tringale (8500) – course history here is below average but recent history is very good and feels like a very good fit with his APP game.  He’ll lose a little OTT but I think Tringale will be good everywhere else.  Last week in Discord, a subscriber stated that Tringale’s price was “disrespectful” and that turned out to be true.  Hoping to have him churn out another good score this week.

Matt Jones (8100) – Jones consistently makes cuts and finished 5th here last year.  His ball striking numbers could be better, but in my estimation he’s a very under the radar guy with upside.

Peter Malnati (7800) – In this tournament the 7k range becomes pretty risky, but you’re going to have to take some big swings and there’s no bigger swing than Peter Malnati who can really be erratic with his ball striking.  He can get hot in an instant and that is evidenced in his rencent history and his course history.  Plenty of upside here.

Harold Varner III (7700) – HV3 simply hasn’t been good for quite some time, but I think we saw something last week with his 13th place finish in terms of putting a full four rounds together.  If you look at the quality of this field, if HV3 can even be close to what he was last week, then he pays off his pricetag and then some. 

Scott Stallings (7500) – I’m not going to be overweight on Stallings as there are plenty of guys that I want to take shots on in the 7k range (more on that during the Livestream/Podcast), but I am a fan of Stallings in general as his ball striking and short game are both solid.  He has a missed cut here in 2020 but prior to that he had a 3rd, 7th and 14th place finish.   

Michael Thompson (7200) – He and Kirk really let me down last week but I’ll probably go back to both in some lineups.  Thompson will lose strokes OTT but should gain in other areas.  His course history includes a 10th place finish in 2019 but also three missed cuts surrounding that.  A hunch play for me as I liked the form he exhibited prior to last week’s missed cut.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – I purposely did not include any 6k golfers in this Initial Picks article because I think this range is very bad this week.  I would avoid this range entirely if you can, other than the Secret Weapon of course, which will be in Discord Wednesday night.  You can also tune into tonight’s Livestream for more on 6k golfers to consider.

Thanks for reading my AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks! Make sure to check back with Win Daily Sports all week for more content. See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST for the Win Daily PGA Livestream with Michael, Joel and myself. 

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PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Field of 132 golfers
  • Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
  • 2020 winner: Webb Simpson (-17)
  • The courses: TPC Scottsdale
    • Par 71 – 7,261 yards
    • Altitude means bombers will bomb even harder, but driving accuracy also important
    • Fans not as much of a factor, going from 200,000+ to about 5K
    • Fast Bermuda greens
  • 6/6 golfers making the cut should be easier this week with the smaller field
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, Par 4s: 450-500, Par 5s Gained, Opportunities Gained, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bermuda)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm might be ready for a breakthrough at the Waste Management Phoenix Open after four straight performances among the top 16 in which he’s placed higher each time (16-11-10 and a T9 last season). His ball striking and short game make him a threat to win every week, but he and the next guy are 2-1 in my model, respectively, so I won’t be fading Rahmbo at TPC Scottsdale.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – JT returns to the business of dominating golf courses with his complete bag of tools – which he’s probably anxious to dust off after a missed cut at Abu Dhabi and an unfortunate and embarrassing foot-in-mouth incident where he uttered a slur after a missed putt. There’s some merit to fading him in GPPs since he’s bound to be highly owned, but I always have a hard time leaving him off my favorite teams. He’s first or second in five of the nine focus stats listed above and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,100) – The defending champion took last week off after playing both tournaments in Hawaii (T17 at Sentry TOC and T4 at the Sony Open), and he’s made 7/7 cuts this year. He’s not a long hitter, so he’ll have to deploy a different strategy than the bombers on the long par 4s and par 5s, but he’s won here before and can do it again.

Daniel Berger (DK $9,600) – Berger works best in cash games where you’re fading the $10K and up range and looking for more balance, especially since he’s making cuts with such consistency and flashing top 10 upside. He’s not my favorite to win, but he’s finished in the top 25 in four straight events and in the 25-30 range in the previous two. Berger isn’t a complicated golfer to handicap – he just has a little trouble winning (three career, his last at the 2020 Charles Schwab).

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100) – I was going to start off this tier with Sungjae Im, but I like Scheffler’s upside in large-field GPPs a bit more and would prefer Im in cash games in the $9,000-$9,500 price range. Scheffler didn’t do well in his debut here last season, but if he can get hot with the putter and make the cut, there’s no telling what he can pull off on Sunday. Probably not a staple of my single-entry GPP, but just the kind of guy I want to mix up my small-stakes, multi-entry GPP tickets.

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,000) – There’s no course history to examine here, but it’s not an overly complex setup tee to green – so the talented Zalatoris is definitely in play here, especially in GPPs where folks could shay away from the price tag and the dearth of experience at TPC Scottsdale. There’s really not a venue that can throw off Willie Z, so I’m buying with the inherent risk of his short game lacking the umph to carry him onto the leaderboard.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,500) – Bubba is a course horse (T3 and T4 in last two years here) and a guy who thrives on fast greens. His poor showing at the Masters and missed cut last week at the Farmers doesn’t instill confidence, but he’s No. 17 on my model and is worth a look in GPPs.

Billy Horschel (DK $8,400) – If we throw out Horschel’s MC last week, there’s a lot to like about his recent play. He’s also 5-for-5 here with a Top 10 last season, and while he’s not necessarily popping (No. 49 overall) on my model this week, he’s viable in those balanced cash builds we’ve discussed – and even a few tournaments.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300) – Like Watson, Gary is a golfer who’s best days in the sport may be behind him – but there’s still plenty to like about the course fit and track record: he’s four-for-his-last-five here and won the event in 2018. If he can strike it well and seize on his opportunities this week, he might make for a solid GPP play in “balanced” builds.

Russell Henley (DK $8,200) – Henley seems to alternate missed cuts with Top 20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale, as well as MCs with Top 30s in his recent play. When I take that pattern and add in that he’s on the beat for the better of those two scenarios this year – and this week – the fact that he’s No. 12 in my model (and No.1 in both SG: BS and SG: APP) gets me excited. He’s my favorite play for GPPs in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, and I dare say is viable in both single-entry and cash.

Sam Burns (DK $7,700) – Burns is the sub-$8K player who’s “popping” the most on my models (No. 6 overall) and while he played well last week, the Sunday 75 kept him from a Top 10 finish. He’s 0-for-2 here but If he can turn it around with the putter this week – and he’s normally pretty solid with the flat stick but lost almost 3 shots to the field last week – he could make for a solid under-the-radar play in all formats.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,700) – Kuchar loves the Waste Management Open (4-for-4 with three top 10s and a T16 in his last four tries) and the price is significantly reduced since his game has taken a turn for the worse since COVID-19. Maybe this event will bring up some good memories.

Also consider: Sungjae Im (cash), Harris English (GPP), Ryan Palmer (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Corey Conners, Max Homa, Carlos Ortiz, Talor Gooch (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,500) – Norlander’s play can be wildly inconsistent week-to-week, but he’s playing well right now (T12 at the AMEX and T2 last week at Torrey Pines) and is tops in the field playing Par 4s (450-500). A first-timer in Phoenix, Norlander makes sense as a GPP play – but I’d steer clear in cash.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – He’s No. 35 on my model this week with no glaring deficiencies other than a relatively weak putter. Steele has fared well here before (third place in 2018) but missed the cut in the last two tries. He’s a good bet for a bounceback and could be a viable cash game target at this price.

Charley Hoffman (DK $7,000) – I normally don’t play Hoffman but this might be the week I jump aboard. The model likes him (No. 35 overall) and he’s perfect in his last five tries here with three finishes among the top 26 golfers.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,700) – Varner is always a bit risky but he had Top 10 upside at this venue and is an excellent ball striker who’s popping in my model. Like many good ball strikers who haven’t won, his struggles are usually on the greens, so that’ll be something to watch this week.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Higgs is the opposite of Varner (not a great ball striker, better on and around the greens), but priced similarly because he’s a damn good putter. If you’re down to under $7K for your last piece, you could pivot between him and HV3.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,600) – I like playing Hubbard in GPPs, and he’s actually 3-for-3 at the Waste Management Open – a promising stat for a guy priced this low. Nothing in his recent play is very promising, but the T9 finish last year points to an affinity for TPC Scottsdale and the low price means he could work for top heavy lineups that need some value plays.

Denny McCarthy (DK $6,600) – McCarthy is tops in the field for SG:P and his flat stick keeps him in the conversation at most venues. This week, the elevation could help with his distance (he does play Par 5s well) and the fact that he’s made the cut in two tries here and should be low owned means he’s worth a look in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Zach Johnson, Emiliano Grillo (GPP), Byeong Hun An (GPP), John Huh, Luke List (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik Van Rooyen, James Hahn

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – Hoge has missed three straight cuts, but he’s improved with each appearance at this tournament, culminating with a T25 last year. There aren’t any sure things at $6,500 and under, but I’ll be overweight on last week’s secret weapon after his disappointing performances at the AMEX and Farmers.

Padraig Harrington (DK $6,200) – Harrington has made the cut in four straight events and is near the minimum price on DK. His game around the greens is still solid, and while he’s a longshot DFS play, he’s easy to root for.

Additional punt options: Brian Stuard, Keith Mitchell (GPP), Hudson Swafford

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PGA DFS Picks: Farmers Insurance Open

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Farmers Insurance open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Strong, full field of 152 golfers
  • Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
  • 2020 winner: Marc Leishman (-15)
  • The courses: Torrey Pines North (one of first two rounds) & South (three rounds of four)
    • Both Par 72 (North: 7,258 South: 7,698 yards)
    • Coastal courses so wind/elements are a factor
    • South course is tougher, and a long driver helps
    • Harder-to-hit greens
    • North: Bentgrass greens; South: Poa Annua greens
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Driving Distance, SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Driving Distance, Bogey Avoidance, Par 4s: 450-500

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Rahm’s sore back kept him out of the AMEX last week, but that’s about the only thing keeping me from clicking his name as a lock in all my lineups. He’s got a win (2017) along with a couple top five finishes here, has the all-around game to win again, and he’s second on my mixed model behind only Tony Finau. I couldn’t dissuade anyone from even going lock button, 100-percent Rahm, and he’ll be the core of my single-entry lineups.

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,000) – Initial ownership projections have McIlroy coming in under Rahm and Finau, but he’s priced with them and has top five finishes in both his visits. Sia likes him and will talk more about it in his livestream tonight, and McIlroy is tops in three very important focus stat categories: SG:APP, BoB% and Bogey Avoidance. Rory occasionally has decent missed cut equity compared to the rest of the big names, but these courses and the possibility of some difficult conditions should play to his strengths.

Tony Finau (DK $10,700) – Finau is coming off a solo fourth last week (-19, four strokes behind the winner) and his track record here is solid, with five straight top 20s (but only one top five). Because he’s priced up so high and always struggles to actually win golf tournaments, he might be best used in cash. Finau could get really chalky in GPPs, so it might be a good time to fade him over the two guys above.

Xander Schauffele (DK $10,400) – Schauffele’s best pro finish here (his home course in high school, ironically) is a T25 in 2018 (surrounded by a bunch of missed cuts), but there’s nothing in the mixed model to suggest he shouldn’t play well here – aside from a minor dip when it comes to SG:P, where he’s 68th in the field. His excuse is that he’s been “consistently” sick when it’s time to tee it up at Torrey Pines, but with a COVID-19 diagnosis and recovery out of the way, maybe he’s finally ready to play well here.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Harris English (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Wolff is the type of fearless golfing talent who could fare quite well at Torrey Pines with his length, and his T21 in last year’s debut run speaks to his ability to adjust well to a challenge. The biggest concern is how Wolff will rebound if he’s missing the Poa Annua greens (he’s No. 131 in the filed in SG:ARG). He’s definitely got the ball-striking and ability to thrive on this surface – it’s just a matter of avoiding some bad bounces and keeping his head on straight.

Marc Leishman (DK $8.700) – The form is good (T4 at the Sony Open) and he’s the defending champion at Torrey Pines – so he’ll be in plenty of my builds. I’m more than a little concerned about rostering a chalky Marc Leishman, but he’s projected closer to 10 percent, which means I could stomach using him in about 1/5 GPPs and even a low-cost single-entry.

Jason Day (DK $8,600) – Day hasn’t played since a T12 at the RSM Classic in mid-November, but that could be a good thing – as his troublesome back may have benefited from the layoff. If we get word that Day (No. 8 in my mixed model) is looking healthy in the practice rounds, I’ve got no problem using him in GPPs and hoping his ownership stays down.

Ryan Palmer (DK $8,400) – Palmer is 3/3 with a T2 here during the 2017-18 season, and he hasn’t missed a cut since the U.S. Open. The form is decent and he’s No. 7 in my model this week. Best deployed in cash games, he might get chalky in tournaments – so I’ll either be all-in (single entry lock and 50 percent ownership in GPPs) or trying to come in around the field in MMEs.

Adam Scott (DK $8,300) – Scott is another darling of my model this week, and he’s priced very affordably for a man who finished solo second in the 2019 Farmers (Justin Rose was -21, two strokes better than Scott’s -19). The tour veteran can struggle with has flatstick, but a solid ball-striking veteran like Accurate Adam can get hot enough knocking down flagsticks as that it doesn’t matter.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,900) – I was all over him last week, but once an unlucky flagstick strike that caromed back into the water turned a birdie into a quadruple bogey, his confidence was shot. Back on a course where his gargantuan length off the tee could be a huge advantage, I’m jumping back aboard in GPPs – but he’s way too risky for cash.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,600) –Gooch actually finished T3 in the aforementioned 2019 Farmers and he’s popping on my models (No. 11 overall). A T21 last week and a couple Top 5s since October help contribute to my interest in this straight hitter who fares ell in many of the focus stat categories.

Also consider: Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Si Woo Kim (cash), Cameron Smith, Billy Horschel (GPP), Cameron Davis, Gary Woodland, Francesco Molinari (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam Burns

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,500) – This would be a form play, as Ortiz has missed two straight cuts here and is only No. 67 on my model. Sia is with me on the inherent risk, but we both like him for his upside.

Charles Howell (DK $7,500) – A cash game staple this week, Howell has a solid Torrey Pines resume and is a fine play in all formats, as hi ownership may stay low coming off a MC at the AMEX.

Max Homa (DK $7,400) – Homa seems to be shaping up since a rough fall schedule, he finished T9 here last season, and he’s No. 38 overall in my model. Too risky for cash but worth a look in GPPs.

Doug Ghim (DK $7,200) – Ghim is a WinDaily favorite and one of the best single-round performers on tour. A T20 here in 2019 and his T5 last week make me interested in large-field GPPs – so hopefully his ownership stays low.

John Huh (DK $7,000) – Consistently good at this venue, Huh has three top 25 finishes over his past three months (including a top 15) and he’s been gaining strokes on the field at an alarming rate (5.7) over his last five tournaments. The price is just too low.

Brandt Snedeker ($7,000) – Stay away in cash and single-entry, but keep an eye on Snedeker for his performance at this venue and ability to putt and scramble himself onto the leaderboard. Sneds has missed three straight cuts but he’s 5-for-5 here since 2016.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,900) – Higgs finished T9 in 2020 at Torrey Pines and his ownership should stay around 5% or lower this week. He’s a longshot to win or even finish in the Top 10 again, but there is some upside here in this price range.

Adam Schenk (DK $6,700) – He’s not the best ball striker in the field and there are plenty of obstacle to him finishing in the Top 15, but he made the cut here in 2019 after a rocky debut the previous year and he crept into the Top 40 of my model. With a 1-2% projected ownership, I’m comfortable using him in one or two of my 20 max entry GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Alex Noren (GPP), Lucas Glover, Tom Hoge (GPP), Luke List, Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Richy Werenski (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,500) – This is not the land of sure things, so do not hit the lock button with NeSmith – who made the cut here last year in his debut and finished T30. For that, he’s a 1/20 option in large field GPPs.

Tyler McCumber (DK $6,400) – McCumber is actually No. 20 in my model, which was a pleasant surprise in looking for low-cost options in this range. He made the cut last week and like NeSmith, played well in his debut at Torrey Pines last year, finishing T21 with Will Gordon.

Will Gordon (DK $6,300) – Well, what do you know? The long-hitting Gordon is $100 cheaper than McCumber but doesn’t get any love from my model this week (No. 105 overall). If I play McCumber in 2/20 GPPs, I’ll use Gordon in one.

Additional punt options: Robbie Shelton, J.J. Spaun, Beau Hossler (GPP)

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PGA

Farmers Insurance Open: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The PGA Tour is back in full flight as we arrive at the Farmers Insurance Open.  This is another tournament that features two courses (which I find really annoying) and the courses aren’t particularly similar as they are both a Par 72 but the South course is 400-500 yards longer than the North Course.  Three of the rounds are being played on the South Course so that is where my focus will be from an analysis standpoint.  Bombers are welcome here and driving accuracy will certainly help.  Around the Green game is also important.  And finally, this is a tough place to putt so I will be putting a slightly higher emphasis than normal in that department.  In case it’s not obvious, I’m looking for guys with good to great all around games.  Let’s get started with our Farmers Insurance Open: Initial Picks!

Rory McIlroy (11000) – His track record here is excellent and he appears to be in pretty good form.  I’m usually finding excuses to fade Rory, but in this field I like him as my top guy (Rahm is great but I’ll explain why I prefer Rory on our PGA Livestream).

Harris English (9800) – Harris English doesn’t feel like a guy that can take this thing down, but he’s got a shot.  He’s got a rare combo of good ball striking and good short game and that’s the type of box checking I’m interested in this week.

Cam Smith (8500) – A guy who doesn’t necessarily grade out very well, but who can really grind on tougher courses.  I think this will be a welcome test for Cam after the resort style Sentry and Sony where he didn’t play very well. 

Ryan Palmer (8400) – Likely to be a popular player because the price is just too good.  He’s been striking the ball very well and he’s played very well at this course.  Let’s see how chalky this guy becomes, but either way, I may be eating this chalk.

Cam Davis (7900) – Can drive it a long way and not terrible with the short game.  He’s also coming off a 3rd place at the American Express so I’ll have a few shares and ride the hot hand with upside. 

Sam Burns (7700) – I was one of the few that did not tout Burns last week and that was mostly because he should never be chalk and wasn’t as good a course fit as people thought.  I think the Farmers is much better suited for Burns and I like how he closed last week with a very good Friday score (after a deplorable round on Thursday).

Carlos Ortiz (7500) – More of a hunch play as his track record here is quite bad.  But recent form has been good and I think he has upside (3 Top 15 finishes in his last 4 including an outright win).  This is a boom or bust play so tread carefully

Doug Ghim (7200) – Ball striking has been great and outside of an MC at the Sony he has been very consistent and offering plenty of upside (5th last week at AmEx).  His only two attempts at the Farmers were a MC and a 20th place finish and when you get to this range I think that’s about what you should be expecting, one or the other.

John Huh (7000) – Three Top 25’s in his last three tournaments and hasn’t missed a cut here in his last five attempts.  This is the type of guy you want at the bottom end of your lineup.

Luke List (6800) – Has been bad for a little while now but starting to come on strong and capture some of what we thought he was a couple years ago.  Luke List can hit the ball a mile and APP and ARG aren’t too bad.  What concerns me is a really bad putter, but you’re rolling the dice in this range regardless, so I’ll have a share or two of List.

Richie Werenski (6700) – Led the field in driving accuracy last week and was hitting it about 300 yards which isn’t bad.  Werenski, one of the first Secret Weapons ever, is probably entering the mispriced conversation and that means he’s a solid value play in this range.

Secret Weapon (less than 5% owned/less than 7k) – Nice little run I’m on here (27-2).  Regression coming?  Who knows.  What I do know is this week’s SW will be in Discord Wednesday night. 

Thanks for checking out our Farmers Insurance Open: Initial Picks! See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST for The Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream with Michael Rasile and Joel Schrek.  We will have the full DFS breakdown plus outrights (hit last week with Si Woo Kim at 70 to 1)! Be on the lookout for other articles coming from the Win Daily Sports Family, too!

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Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: The American Express

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the American Express and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Weaker, full field of 156 golfers (no Pro-Am this year)
  • Cut: 36 holes (instead of the venue’s usual 54), Top 65 and ties
  • 2020 winner: Andrew Landry (-25)
  • The courses: PGA West in Palm Springs, CA (TPC Stadium and Nicklaus Tournament)
    • Both Par 72 (7,100-7,300 yards)
    • Reachable Par 5s and plenty of scoring
    • Rough not too penal, some wind expected
    • Bermuda greens, lots of sand and water
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Opportunities Gained, SG: Putting (Bermuda), SG: Off the Tee, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Tony Finau (DK $10,500) – I’ve said many times that I’d never again roster Finau – but that’s an attitude antithetical to winning DFS play. The 31-year-old tour veteran ranks seventh in the field in BoB gained and 12th in SG:OTT. If you’re fading the Patricks (Reed and Cantlay) and don’t want to go near Brooks Koepka, Finau is a great guy to get behind in the top tier.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,900) – My model loves Im (second overall behind Russell Henley), and there’s no particular area where this hardworking tour grinder’s game suffers. While Henley’s had his struggles at this venue (1/4), Sungjae is 2-for-2 with a T10 and T12. He’s a fine play in all formats.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – It’ll be interesting to see how much cash game love Wolff gets this week, considering he missed the cut in his first try at PGA West last season, but there’s really no reason to fade him in GPPs. His talent and ability to record birdies in bunches makes him a top play.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,500) – Scheffler debuted at this tournament with a solo third place finish, he’s No. 15 on my model, and he’s even better than Finau in the aforementioned two categories (No. 3 in SG:OTT and No. 5 in BoB%) that are big strengths here. In a field without too many big names, Scheffler’s looms large.

Also consider: Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Kevin Na (DK $9.200) – Na isn’t the kind of golfer we like to rely on for consistency, but his track record at this event is impressive: 6/6 with two top 20s since 2014. Last week’s champ might see his ownership spike considerably from last week, but he makes for an affordable cash game option who I’ll mix into a few GPPs.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9.100) – Ancer likes the venue and despite a few putting hiccups and his inability to close out tournaments, the price makes plenty of sense for Accurate Abe. He’s placed better each of the times he’s teed it up in Palm Springs, and a breakthrough win is only a hot putter away.

Cameron Champ (DK 8,900) – I haven’t heard a ton of chatter about Champ in a while, and that means it might be time to get aboard; he’s a player with all the talent in the world to rip this course apart. Tops in the field in SG:OTT and 22nd in BoB% (you should be noticing a trend here), Champ just needs to keep it in the fairways and score well on the Par 3s.

Adam Long (DK $8,500) – Long missed the cut last year after winning this event as a rookie in the 2018-19 season, and he’s already notched four Top 15s in eight starts this season. He’s not among my favorites to win, but he’s a solid GPP play in this price range.

Patton Kizzire (DK $8,400) – Kizzire might be the best putter on tour right now, and his usual issues off the tee have been mitigated by his performance on the greens. Think of him as a poor man’s Na without the requisite success at PGA West, and a guy that should be low-owned in tournaments at this increased price.

Sam Burns (DK $8,300) – He hasn’t played much competitive golf lately but Burns has a T18 and T6 in his two appearances here, and both he and Ryan Moore (also making his 2020-21 season debut) make for excellent plays in the $8,000-$8,500 range.

Ryan Moore (DK $8,000) – Burns and Moore rank at No. 8 and No. 9 in my model, respectively, though they occupy different ends of the putting spectrum, with Moore’s flat stick lagging considerably. The slight discount on Moore could help make the decision in cash games, but they both make sense for GPPs.

Adam Hadwin (DK $8,000) – The ultimate course horse, Hadwin’s performance at PGA West is downright astounding, with four straight finishes among the Top 6 from 2016 to 2019. I’ve tried 100 percent Hadwin ownership before and it worked out badly, but I’m tempted to try it again considering his unusual affection for the TPC Stadium course and the fact that the only reason he didn’t play here last year was due to the birth of his first child.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Paul Casey, Gary Woodland, Erik Van Rooyen, Aaron Wise (GPP), Alex Noren

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Doc Redman (DK $7,500) – The luster has worn off a bit after his T61 in Houston and MC at the RSM Classic, so I feel comfortable enough to call Doc a “sleeper” pick this week. The final ownership percentages will tell the final story on how much I’ll be using, but he’s all the way up at third in my overall rankings this week.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,400) –Gooch has a top 5 here (2019) and two straight MCs at the RSM and Sony will keep his ownership down. What’s really bizarre is that he’s almost interchangeable in terms of model ranking (12th vs. 13th), past performance (both have a T4 in the past two seasons) and price point (same) with Sepp Straka.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,400) – What I said about Gooch goes for Sepp, right down to my infatuation with both for GPPs. I’ll be building a whole smattering of tournament lineups with either – or both – of these golfers, and hoping they can keep it together the first couple days and make the cut.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,300) – Bradley seems like a one week on, one week off type of golfer, so I’m less concerned about his MC at the Sony Open than I am his Top 25 upside. Bradley always flies under the radar despite a solid approach game and excellent ball-striking off the tee.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,100) – He’s cheap, he can fire at flagsticks and we know he can score (-18 for a T8 at the Shriners in October). NeSmith may not be exciting, but he’s No. 33 in my model this week, he finished T17 in his debut here last season, and he may improve on that this year.

Andrew Landry (DK $7,000) – My model is not kind to Landry this year, but he’s the defending champ and I’ll work in some ownership in MMEs. Not only did he win here in 2020, but he lost in a playoff in this event in 2018, so there’s something about the place he digs.

Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,800) – I find it difficult to pin down exactly when to play Taylor, but he’s 3-for-4 here with a Top 10 in 2019 – and his price (along with a Top 25 last week at the Sony) makes him an interesting punt option.

More value golfers to consider: Lucas Glover, Charley Hoffman, Cameron Tringale, Tom Hoge, Russell Knox (GPP), Chex Reavie, John Huh, Henrik Norlander, Adam Schenk

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

John Augenstein (DK $6,500) – First-timers seem to fare well here, and Augenstein, playing in his pro debut this week, ranks at No. 53 in my model. He’s got the star power to make this price seem ridiculous in subsequent events. I’ll be overweight on the field and hoping for some Sunday airtime.

Chase Seiffert (DK $6,400) – Seiffert is actually playing with Augenstein, so he can relay stories of his T21 finish in his debut here in 2020 and maybe get those good vibes going again. Seiffert falls just behind Augie, Tom Hoge and Brice Garnett in my model at No. 56, so there’s plenty to like as a bargain bin value option.

Grayson Murray (DK $6,300) – He’s a course horse of the not-quite highest order (with Hadwin in a class by himself) because he’s notched three Top 15s here in his four attempts (MC in 2019). Don’t go overboard, but don’t completely forget about him either.

Additional punt options: Andrew Putnam, Will Gordon, Sebastian Cappelen (GPP) Nate Lashley, Sean O’Hair

Good luck this week! – Antonio D’Arcangelis

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PGA

The American Express: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

We’ve got a full field event and two courses to consider over the first two days of the American Express.  This course has some land mines here and there, but it’s a pretty straightforward set up which primarily requires you to be great on APP.  You don’t have to be long off the tee so short hitters are certainly in play.  Catch our PGA show tonight at 8:00 EST for more on these initial picks and check out all our great content throughout the rest of this week.  You can also catch me on yesterday’s The First Cut Podcast with Rick Gehman so be sure to check that out. Now let’s get started with The American Express: Initial Picks.

Patrick Cantlay (11100) – A Cali kid who is just getting his season started.  The ball striking is on point with this guy and his T2G metrics are best in the field.  Not a guy I’m usually on, but in this field there’s no reason to think he’s not going to be battling late Sunday afternoon.

Matthew Wolff (9700) – Actually hasn’t been great over the last few months but that’s part of the reason I like him.  Hopefully his middling results keep ownership down, and if so, I’ll take the upside.  Keep an eye on ownership because if this guy gets popular, there are plenty of good pivots.

Scottie Scheffler (9500) – Has been good as of late with Top 20’s in 3 of his last 4 and finished 3rd here last year.  The AmEx will give up a lot of scoring and that’s typically where you want Scottie.

Abraham Ancer (9100) – He let a lot of people down last week (not me as I completely faded him), but his ball striking was actually very good.  He was good OTT and good on APP and he putted worse than I’ve seen him in quite some time.  Look for that to rebound and I think Ancer contends Sunday.

Russell Henley (9000) – Another guy who had great ball striking last week and bad putting, and yet, he still managed to put together a great finish.  Henley is just too good on APP to ignore at this point.

Adam Long (8500) – Has had success here with an outright win in 2019 (and a MC in 2020 by the way) and that may drive ownership up.  If it does, I’m out on Long but if the percentage is reasonable, he’ll be in some lineups.  He has been quite good the last few tournaments including a 3rd place finish at Mayakoba.

Si Woo Kim (8200) – Si Woo had a round of 87 at this same track last year.  Yes, an 87.  I’m on board regardless as I think he’s a great ball striker and if he can keep his head together he can contend in this field.  With that said, he’s on the riskier side so tread lightly.

Erik Van Rooyen (7900) – Was great with the ball striking last week and awful with the putter.  Give me the expected positive regression.  Pretty good price here. 

Emiliano Grillo (7800) – A great ball striker who I am going to go back to this week.  The putter almost always fails him but the ball striking is excellent. 

Joel Dahmen (7500) – A relatively easy course where you can pile up birdies?  Perfect.  Dahmen is good on APP and good OTT and is a flat out scorer.  With that said he can also tank your lineup (See Si Woo Kim) if things start going south.  His track record here isn’t great but he hasn’t played since 2018 so I’m basically going to ignore that.

Cameron Tringale (7400) – Typically bad OTT which shouldn’t hurt him here but great on APP which will be key.  I don’t want to lean on recent history too much as there was an extended break over the holidays, but he was pretty solid over his last couple tournaments.  His track record here is average at best.  Call this one of my hunch plays as opposed to a data driven play.

Tom Hoge (7300) – Another guy who let a lot of people down last week but one bad week isn’t a big enough sample size for me to auto-fade a guy.  He was good on APP last week but couldn’t get the putter going. I’m sure you’re sensing the theme of positive putter regression. 

Tyler Duncan (6800) – Accurate OTT and great on APP.  I’ll have the Steven Polardi special please.  I should note that his results here haven’t been great as he hasn’t cracked the Top 50 over the last few years, but you get what you pay for in this range and I like his prospects to make the cut.

Kramer Hickok (6700) – Has been good in the ball striking department if you look at his last 4-5 tournaments.  His track record here isn’t great but this is a sneaky guy that you might be getting super early if you get him now.

Secret Weapon (Less than 7k/Less than 5% owned) – Tune into Discord Wednesday night.

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