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PGA DFS Picks

Valero Texas Open: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

The PGA Tour continues its Texas swing in San Antonio this week as 140 players battle at The Valero Texas Open. I encourage everyone to check out the PGA Draftcast for the course breakdown and some deep dives into this field. It’s also very important to stay close to the Win Daily Sports PGA Discord tomorrow as Steven will have some insight from the course itself along with updated weather information. And finally, don’t forget about Steven and Spencer’s article coming out Wednesday for some more analysis, ownership and DFS picks. Now, let’s get to the Initial Picks.

Rory McIlroy (11200) – The best in the field and I’m not sure it’s super close. Doesn’t have the experience that I normally prefer, but this is a pretty straightforward course and that shouldn’t be a big issue. I like the fact that he didn’t participate in the match play and I expect him to be fresh and to want to take this tournament down, in spite of the look ahead spot. UPDATE: Steven went out to Rory’s Tuesday’s Valero practice round and stated Rory did not look good. I’m keeping him as a pick, but I’ll point out that I like Spieth and Bryson as alternatives (mainly Spieth).

Chris Kirk (9400) – Great history at The Valero and great recent form. He’ll likely be very chalky, but I’ll still play him in some GPPs. He’s a pretty obvious play in cash as well.

Gary Woodland (9300) – This course requires a bit of everything and a bit of everything is exactly what Woodland has. He’s been very good lately, and yet, remains slightly under the radar. Wouldn’t shock me to see him come in here and win. Tied for 6th here last year along with Chris Kirk.

Adam Hadwin (8900) – Another guy to likely be very popular this week as the recent form has been very good and continues to trend upward. Should be a great course fit and had a solid showing at The Valero last year with a 23rd place finish.

Mito Pereira (8100) – No experience here, but a big time value with great upside. Mito has been great T2G and on APP as of late, but curiously average SG Par 5. I expect that to change this week and I’m hoping the putter cooperates as well.

Patton Kizzire (8000) – Another great value who has great recent form and finished 9th at The Valero here last year. He’s been doing very well in a lot of key metrics including SG Par 5, APP, and oh yea, DK points.

Martin Laird (7500) – He’s burned me the last two tournaments but this looks like a venue where he has some comfort based on his finishing positions. Add to that his metrics are off the charts, aside from the dreaded putter. Over the last two tournaments he’s lost nearly 10 strokes PUTT which simply awful. With that said, I suspect he’s comfortable on these greens based on his finishing positions and the PUTT historically being ok at this venue. Proceed with caution.

Matthew NeSmith (7100) – A pretty big steal in my opinion, especially if you’re going by very recent form (last 12 rounds). He has seemed to capture some of the APP play that he was known for a couple of years back and he’s also keeping it in the fairway and scoring very well on the Par 5s. That’s exactly what you want here. Finished 34th here last year. I’ll note I think Doug Ghim, Matt Kuchar and Beau Hossler are sneaky in this range as well.

Doc Redman (6700) – Much like NeSmith, Doc appears to have found some of his old game and grades out well above average in the field in plenty of key metrics including APP, SG Par 5, Good Drives and T2G. 44th place at The Valero on his first try last year.

JJ Spaun (6700) – The Secret Weapon at the Valspar finished a healthy 27th. I hear some chatter about him as people are starting to notice, but the price remains very good. I expect JJ to make the cut and potentially make some noise in this field. He’s not really a Top 10 candidate but another Top 20ish finish is certainly in play.

Secret Weapon – 50-18. See you in Discord.

Be sure to get in our Discord, watch our PGA Draftcast if you haven’t already. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Bettor Golf Podcast Presents the Valero Open

Jason Mezrahi 3 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

FSGA Golf writer of the Spencer Aguiar and professional sports bettor breaks down the Valero Open with top ranked DFS player and professional handicapper Nick Bretwisch. These guys consistently pick winners each and every week and they get granular with each play to make sure they find you the best lines in the market to take advantage of. They have developed their own personal betting models and attack the sportsbooks when they see and edge and value. The discipline and knowledge they bring to the table is something that we all need to make part of our process if we want to be a successful bettor. You will not find a better PGA podcast for betting and this one is free for all to listen. Make sure you check it out and subscribe so you never miss an episode.

Take a listen to the Bettor Golf Podcast podcast by clicking here.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Valspar Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Do you want more golf coverage from me this week? Please give a listen to both the Bettor Golf Podcast that I host with Nick Bretwisch, as well as the PGA Draftcast with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Viktor Hovland ($10,800) – I loved how Justin Thomas looked at the Players Championship, but man, what a brutal four rounds he had to encounter. I think we saw some of that letdown take place on Monday, and for that reason, I am going to go with Viktor Hovland as my top man on the board for the Valspar Championship. Hovland has posted three top-nine finishes in a row and ranks number one in this field for total driving.

Collin Morikawa ($10,700) – If Justin Thomas got the worst of the weather draw, Collin Morikawa also did by playing next to him over the opening two days. Morikawa couldn’t handle things quite as pristinely as Thomas did, missing the cut in a disappointing fashion, but the upside remains intact for one of the best ball-strikers in the world.

Other Consideration – I will be underweight to the field on Dustin Johnson.

$9,000 Range

Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900) – Your weekly reminder that not all chalk is a trap. Louis Oosthuizen checks just about all the boxes that you would be hoping to see on a golfer that can get across the finish line, and after a ton of close calls on the PGA Tour over the years, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends his winless drought on America soi at the Valspar.

Other Targets: Tyrrell Hatton ($9,800), Shane Lowry ($9,700), Sam Burns ($9,600), Jason Kokrak ($9,200) and Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,000) are all in play. The margins are very thin between the group, but I likely would power rank them Hatton, Lowry, Fitzpatrick, Burns and Kokrak.

$8,000 Range

Webb Simpson ($8,300) – Webb Simpson can help open up builds for you if you find yourself getting caught in all the same chalk traps. While I wouldn’t recommend going bullishly overweight, you can get to 3-4x the field by using him in 15% of lineups.

Other Thoughts: Alex Noren ($8,700), Cameron Tringale ($8,000)

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900) – Number one ranked golfer in this field in scrambling and sand save percentage.

Aaron Wise ($7,700) – Wise is the only golfer in the $7,000 range that ranks inside the top-15 players for upside.

Mito Pereira ($7,200) – I don’t like this ownership and will likely pivot elsewhere if these trends continue, but Mito Pereira has been stellar with his ball-striking over the past three events, gaining 4.3 shots to the field per start.

Adam Svensson ($7,200) – Adam Svensson is a pristine ball-striker that excels from 150 yards and beyond. His combination of par-five scoring and GIR percentage makes him a value in most markets, and I do want to note for the last time that he was stolen from me during the PGA Draftcast. My lawyer (Sia) is on the case.

Joel Dahmen ($7,100) – These less-than-driver courses are always where Joel Dahmen finds his best success. Thirteenth in my model for weighted scrambling.

Danny Willet ($7,100) – My two favorite longshot options in the $7,000 range that will be under five percent owned are Danny Willet ($7,100) and Adam Svensson ($7,200). Willet is a top-20 par-five scorer in the field and also ranks inside the top-five for short game metrics.

Taylor Moore ($7,000) – If you are trying to get cute on a play that nobody will see coming, Taylor Moore has a good combination of weighted proximity and overall tee-to-green data to cause some damage at two percent ownership.

Additional Thoughts: There are a handful of additional spots to look into for the week. You can use my model to see some of the other golfers that are showing as a value.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Pat Perez ($6,900), J.J. Spaun ($6,900), Matthew NeSmith ($6,800), Martin Kaymer ($6,800), Joseph Bramlett ($6,700), Troy Merritt ($6,600), Hank Lebioda ($6,600), Kramer Hickok ($6,500), Trey Mullinax ($6,400). That gives you a handful of dart throws to go along with some more popular choices.

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3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

If you haven’t had a chance, please give a listen to both the Bettor Golf Podcast that I host with Nick Bretwisch, as well as the PGA Draftcast that I do with Joel Schreck and Sia Nejad.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jon Rahm ($11,100) –Something has to give for Jon Rahm, who has averaged 10.9 strokes per start over his last three contests when it comes to ball-striking. Rahm is trending towards going under-owned in this market because of his poor short game numbers, but I would be careful in removing him from my pool.

Justin Thomas ($10,400) – Psh! Who needs trends? I will save the negative talk regarding Justin Thomas this week for others in the space and instead talk about why his chances of going back-to-back are higher than perception. Thomas has produced the most birdies at TPC Sawgrass since 2017, and it won’t hurt matters that he has a cumulative average of 5.8 in my model – a number that is as low as I have seen from any non-Rahm option. Thomas can win this event with anything better than a neutral putter, and his 18th-place grade on fast/lightning greens might be enough to help that cause.

Other Consideration – Collin Morikawa ($10,700) and Rory McIlroy ($10,800) are both in play. Morikawa will be the chalk. Rory provides some contrarian leverage.

$9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele ($9,700) – I mentioned this fact on both the Bettor Golf Podcast and PGA Draftcast that golfers have spoken about playing to the center of these greens because of their size, and it is challenging to find a player on tour that benefits more than Xander Schauffele. You don’t have to look any further than Xander’s combination of ranking 24th in GIR percentage and 85th in proximity to know he typically plays away from the pin for safety, but that mixture gets enhanced when the center of the green not only keeps him safe at Sawgrass but also should produce more straightforward looks than he is accustomed to having on a bigger surface.

Other Targets: Dustin Johnson ($9,800) – I honestly don’t know what to expect out of Johnson, but his potential places him firmly in the mix when it comes to GPP builds. Jordan Spieth ($9,000). GPP-only also.

$8,000 Range

Daniel Berger ($8,800) – Daniel Berger is a favorite in every matchup he has at the offshore books, which includes some against golfers in the $9,000 range. You are going to hear his name all week, but this isn’t an example of bad chalk. Berger is very much in play.

Sungjae Im ($8,300) – I would limit Sungjae Im to GPPs because of the trajectory he produces in my model, but he ranks top-five in this field for ball-striking and is also sixth in overall bogey avoidance.

Other Thoughts: If you are ballsy enough to play Tony Finau at $8,500, there is top-20 potential available. The floor is lower than the slew of balls on the bottom of the 17th, but I assume he is no higher than two percent owned. That sort of leverage always intrigues me. Louis Oosthuizen ($8,700).

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Abraham Ancer ($7,600) – WHAT THE HELL, JOEL!? I don’t think it needs further explanation that Joel blew my mind during the PGA Draftcast when he selected Abraham Ancer second overall. I love the pick, and Ancer is someone I will have exposure to in not only the top-30 market but also as an outright wager.

Russell Henley ($7,400) – Yes, the four missed cuts during his past five Players Championship appearances will provide some concern, but Russell Henley does have two top-25s at the track if we stretch the data back a little further. Henley has been known to run hot-and-cold throughout his career, and he enters the week sizzling with 13 straight made cuts.

Sergio Garcia ($7,400) – Sergio Garcia isn’t necessarily the first name I would circle in this range – that would belong to Ancer, Henley or Corey Conners, but the course history and current form should be enough to take a few risks on his elite skill set of par-five scoring and total driving.

Corey Conners ($7,300) – Corey Conners is a sizeable favorite inside of the head-to-head market against multiple $8,000 golfers, including Louis Oosthuizen at $8,700. This price is too shallow.

Si Woo Kim ($7,300) – Si Woo Kim was leading the PGA Tour in consecutive rounds of shooting par or better before a slip-up at the Genesis Invitational ended that streak. We know Kim is a Pete Dye specialist that has won at the track before, and I find it difficult to ignore him at anything sub-10 percent because of the upside he possesses.

Seamus Power ($7,200) – Volatile? Yes. Worth the risk? Potentially at 1-2 percent ownership. Power imploded at the API on Thursday, which eventually led to him missing his third cut in a row, but the metrics are not as bad as they might seem on the surface. I think we see him find success at Sawgrass, and it could open up the floodgates at his going rate.

Additional Thoughts: Jason Day ($7,500) – No, seriously. Day grades as a value this week. Paul Casey ($7,400), Talor Gooch ($7,200), Chris Kirk ($7,000), Alex Noren ($7,000)

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Keegan Bradley ($6,900), Brian Harman ($6,900), Sebastian Munoz ($6,700), Aaron Wise ($6,600), Thomas Pieters ($6,300)

3 years ago 0 comments

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The Players: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

It’s big boy time on the PGA Tour as 143 golfers will do battle in a field littered with talent. Often considered the 5th major, the Players will ensure that your Draftkings lineup is filled with heavy hitters. TPC Sawgrass is a Par 72 measuring just over 7200 yards. Bombers have a slight advantage, but not enough of one to put a strong emphasis upon. Just like last week, there are a lot of hazards, but expect the scores and the birdie making to be better this week. My focus will be on APP, ARG, GIR and a bit of accuracy off the tee. You may also want to look at Par 4 scoring, Par 5 scoring and Bogey Avoid stats. We will have much more by way of a course breakdown on the PGA Draftcast at 8:00 on Tuesday night, which will feature special guest, PGA Tout! One final note before we get to the Initial Picks at The Players, monitor the weather this week by getting into our Discord as it will likely be a factor.

Jon Rahm (11100) – I’m petrified by his ARG and PUTT, but the ball striking remains excellent and even with the suspect short game he’s still finishing inside the Top 20 every time out. Top 20 is not what you’re looking for, but if he turns the short game around, even a little bit, he can win this thing and will be a decent pivot off of a likely more popular Morikawa or Rory.

Patrick Cantlay (9900) – He belongs in the 10k range, but his history here isn’t the greatest. I still think he has plenty of win equity and he’s coming in with great form. I’m playing the underprice here, but I’ll admit that there’s plenty to go around in the 9k range if you’re not comfortable here.

Cameron Smith (9400) – Another guy without stellar course history, but I just love his game and on a positional golf course, I’m not sure his erraticism OTT will be a huge factor. He shows up in a big way in all the other major metrics and rates out very well on Par 5’s. I’ll note that I like DJ as a sleeper in this range and if Scheffler’s ownership is low, he’s a big time value as he was priced prior to his winning of the API.

Daniel Berger (8800) – Rates out very well across the board, but particularly on APP (number 1 last 50 rounds). He’s a great value here, but likely to be popular so he’s more of a cash game play for me rather than tournament. If you are playing him in tournaments, make sure you get different in some other places. There are a lot of good pivots in this 8k range, many of whom have win equity.

Brooks Koepka (8600) – There are so many ways you can go in this upper 8k range, but I love the upside of Brooks as not many are taking him seriously yet. We’ll need to see how ownership shakes out so stay tuned for Steven’s ownership article, but I do think Brooks has winning upside at The Players and I like how his game has trended as of late.

Shane Lowry (8000) – Checks the box of recent form and course history and rates out really well on APP, ARG, GIRs Gained, Good Drives and Bogey Avoid. He can sometimes sink you OTT, but even in those instances he can play himself back into it with the APP and short game. I’ll note that I think Niemann is a very interesting pivot in this 8k range.

Matt Fitzpatrick (7700) – I’m sure Paul Casey and Ancer will be some of the 7k chalk and I expect Fitz to be right behind them from an ownership standpoint. Fitz has been crushing it in the ball striking department and has a great short game to compliment that. Don’t worry about how he shows up on your model as much of the APP and ARG stats are from last summer.

Cameron Young (7200) – I’m not even sure what to say about this guy at this point, but I’m not comfortable completely fading him. Only strike against him is that he hasn’t played this course on the PGA Tour, but everything else checks out. This guy can play.

Talor Gooch (7200) – Very impressive week at the API and has been great on APP and ARG. Beware of a checkered OTT game, but I love the form overall and he checks the boxes with recent form and course history (played here twice with a 5th place and an MC).

Chris Kirk (7000) – This guy is churning out Top 15’s and appears to be improving each and every tournament. He’s typically a cut maker at The Players and at this point I think he has the requisite upside to pay off his price.

Aaron Wise (6600) – A very risky proposition as Wise hasn’t been that great outside of the API last week. Add to that he’s got a 65th and an MC at The Players, but I like his game enough to give him a shot. The putter is his big issue, but this is a course that has been good to bad putters.

Dylan Frittelli (6600) – In this range you’re looking for anything you can hang your hat on and while Dylan is terrible in the metrics department he’s made 4 out of 5 cuts and finished 22nd here last year.

Secret Weapon – 49-18. See you in Discord. Be sure to get in our Discord, watch our PGA Draftcast LIVE show tomorrow night with special guest PGA Tout and sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Win Daily Nation! I hope everyone is doing well out there, and if you haven’t had a chance to yet, please give a listen to both the Bettor Golf Podcast that I host with Nick Bretwisch, as well as the PGA Draftcast that I do with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck. I am extremely proud of those shows, and a listen goes a long way for us to grow the brand!

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Rory McIlroy ($11,100) – I know nearly 20 percent of users are projected to select Rory McIlroy this weekend at the API, but I am marginally surprised it is not higher when we look at his course history of five straight top-10 results since 2017. McIlroy is one of only four players (the other three being Hovland, Rahm and Hideki) that rank inside the top-20 of every statistical metric I attached a weight, and while I get the recent approach form might provide some concerns, the 66% of second shots that take place beyond 150 yards at the track help place him sixth in my model.

Viktor Hovland ($10,800) – I assume everyone has caught up and watched the ‘PGA Draftcast’ this week, but I can’t tell you how badly I wanted to start my build with Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland. I have some trepidation with my last selection of Thomas Pieters, but in a different world, I do think moving Sungjae Im to Hovland and Pieters down to Trey Mullinax is certainly a viable strategy. Hovland has struggled (by his standards) at this track over his three attempts, failing to post a top-40 result, but the finishes are not quite as shaky when you dive a little deeper into the numbers. The Norweigan entered Saturday inside the top-five last year before blowing up, and a similar sentiment can be said for him in 2020 – an event that saw him fall out of the top-15 on Sunday.

Other Consideration – All five golfers rank inside the top-six of my model. It is hard to find many faults with the group.

$9,000 Range

Sungjae Im ($9,900) – Pricing is excellent across the board this week. I hate that it is the case because it makes the DFS slate much more challenging to get an edge, but we don’t have to look any further than 19 of the top-20 golfers on the odds board managing to grade inside the top-23 names on my model. I always note this factor, but I don’t run my numbers to look at pricing for the week, so it means something when I am in such alignment with all other markets. With all that being said, the one name that I will find myself higher on than most users will be Sungjae Im, who has an ideal bounce-back spot in front of him at the API. Sungjae ranks next to Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland as the only players in this field inside the top-10 of my model in both weighted tee-to-green and total driving, and he also grades a stout 10th in weighted par-five scoring. McIlroy and Hovland will be my preferred choices up top, but it will be Im that carries my primary exposure in the $9,000 range.

Other Targets: I’d monitor ownership, but there is a ton of popularity in this range.

$8,000 Range

Sergio Garcia ($8,100) – As you can tell, I am condensing most of these ranges to feature my favorite few targets of the group for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I don’t think it is that helpful to list a ton of names when most of the popular picks for the event are likely solid plays. You will not hear me pleading my case as often this week that the chalk needs to be faded, but I do like a potential contrarian pivot in the $8,000 zone to Sergio Garcia – a golfer that hasn’t played this tournament in nearly 10 years but has the exact statistical makeup that you would hope to find for a potential winner. Garcia ranks inside the top-seven in this field for weighted par-five scoring and total driving, and I anticipate that we see him at sub-six percent when all is said and done.

Other Thoughts: Sam Burns ($8,800) – GPP Only. Max Homa ($8,700), Jason Kokrak ($8,400), Paul Casey ($8,300) and Keith Mitchell ($8,100) will all be in my pool.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Jason Day ($7,900) – We are back at the site of DAYYYYYY’s infamous Disney World trip in 2019. The Australian is providing solid contrarian numbers for those in GPP contests, and the course history has been great when he hasn’t decided to set records on the ‘Space Ranger’ ride.

Justin Rose ($7,700) – Rose is one of the better difficult course players in the world, and it shouldn’t hurt matters that he ranks inside the top-10 in weighted proximity over 150 yards.

Corey Conners ($7,600) – Ignore the recent results for Corey Conners! I was recommending him as a fade during those contests because of the awkward fit for his game, and we now get a venue that accentuates his total driving.

Seamus Power ($7,600) – My thought process behind Corey Conners is similar to Seamus Power. Consider this an appealing spot to get unique, although I will mention that I thought he would find better success than he did at the Genesis Invitational and Waste Management.

Keegan Bradley ($7,300) – Bradley is fifth in my model when it comes to weighted tee-to-green, and we have seen him find success at tests like this in the past where you don’t need to make as many putts. The American hasn’t missed a cut at the venue in his last nine trips, producing three top-10s.

Additional Thoughts: Luke List ($7,500), Cameron Young ($7,500), Erik Van Rooyen ($7,400), Kevin Na ($7,400), Si Woo Kim ($7,300), Lanto Griffin ($7,100), Sahith Theegala $7,000, Thomas Pieters ($7,000) – GPP only. Tons of risk and upside.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Carlos Ortiz ($6,900), Adam Svensson ($6,700), Garrick Higgo ($6,700), Cameron Davis ($6,600), Alex Smalley ($6,400), Charles Howell III ($6,400), Doug Ghim ($6,300), Trey Mullinax ($6,200).

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Arnold Palmer Invitational: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

The PGA Tour travels to Orlando this week for another installment of the Florida Swing. This course certainly caters to bombers and long iron players, but don’t be fooled, all kinds of styles have fared well here over the years and even the shorter players can get it done if they are precise with their ball striking. This week my focus is on the usual suspects including a heavy emphasis on OTT and APP, but I will also focus on driving accuracy, Par 5 scoring, Prox 200+ and whatever else @TeeOffSports tells me to focus on during our PGA Draftcast at 8:00 Tuesday night. Make sure you tune into that show, read all of our articles and get into our Discord. The family has been red-hot and we plan to keep it rolling. Now let’s get to the the picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Rory McIlroy (11400) – Everyone in this range is a great option and I go back and forth between Rory and Rahm as the best option, but Rahm has never played here and Rory’s history is too good to overlook. Rory’s metrics aren’t great considering his price, particularly on APP, but he just seems to be incredibly comfortable here.

Hideki Matsuyama (10300) – Often overlooked and always underappreciated, Deki could be an interesting pivot off of the two big names at the top. His finishing positions haven’t been outstanding, but that’s mostly due to some very bad putting and his putter has started to improve, ever so slightly. Could be a good mix for a big win at slightly lower ownership than the big boys up top.

Marc Leishman (9100) – Not inlove with this range as it turns out, but there are plenty of names to consider including Sungjae, Zal and Fitz. My favorite option is the lower priced and likely lower owned Marc Leishman. His metrics over the last couple of months have been very good and his history is great as well.

Talor Gooch (8600) – A little scary to roster a guy who lost almost 9 strokes his last time out at The Genesis,, but I prefer to chalk that up to a random event as his play prior to the Genesis was elite (other than a questionable putter). I expect him to put it in play OTT and to comfortably hit greens on APP. A tourney play only this week for me.

Jason Kokrak (8400) – Not rating out particularly well in my model, but I still think there is value here at this price. Kokrak has plenty of upside (along with some MC equity) and I like his history here and recent history. He’s got an 8th, 18th and 10th over his last three efforts at The Arnold Palmer.

Keith Mitchell (8100) – He could get himself into trouble if he doesn’t find enough fairways as the rough here will be penal, but I’m playing the value and upside here, and he’s proven to have both with finishing positions of 43rd, 5th and 6th over his last three. The recent history is very good as well.

Maverick McNealy (7800) – Feels like he’s fallen off people’s radar lately in spite of some great finishes, including a Top 10 at The Genesis. His history at the Arnold Palmer isn’t great, but he feels like a much better golfer now than he was the last couple of years. He’s Top 10 over the last 24 rounds in SG Par 5 and Prox 200+ and he’s inside the Top 50 OTT, APP and ARG. He’s been a great putter lately as well.

Cameron Young (7500) – There is plenty to like right in this precise mid-7k range including Seamus Power, EVR and Chris Kirk, but I’ve decided, for now, to tail the upside of Cameron Young who must have missed the memo that you’re not supposed to dominate the tour as a relative unknown. He’s been elite OTT lately and reasonably consistent on APP. The ARG is a problem spot but when he loses there it’s typically minimal. I don’t mind being late on Young.

Tom Hoge (7300) – Price is simply too low here as Hoge has gained BS in 11 of the last 12 tournaments and we know the PUTT can get hot. He’s proven he has upside and I think he’s deserving of being priced in the upper 7k range. I think there is value in rostering Sepp Straka at 7300 as well.

Lee Hodges (6600) – A potential riser who has shown he can play with the big boys. His BS has been great as of late and the only weak spot appears to be the PUTT. If you need to dip down into this range, I like Hodges, Svensson and Rai as of now.

Secret Weapon – 49-17. See you in Discord.

Be sure to get in our Discord, watch our PGA Draftcast LIVE show tomorrow night and sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Honda Classic

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Daniel Berger ($10,400) –This week, there is a fine line between trying to get contrarian and still taking the choices you want. I feel like DraftKings did an excellent job pricing all the golfers, and ownership continues to flock to the same areas for users. And we some of those points come to fruition when we dive into my upside model, which places every $10,000 golfer inside the top-six for the Honda Classic. There is no point in me taking a bold stance against anyone near the top. I believe you could go any route and still put together a perfectly acceptable build, but I am going to try and jump the gun on Daniel Berger and hope that his back is healthy and ready to fire at PGA National.

Other Consideration – I am not going to talk anyone out of whoever they like for the week.

$9,000 Range

Billy Horschel ($9,600) – Unfortunately, YOUUUUUUU (yes, you reading this article right now) changed some of my plans during the PGA DraftCast show that we did with Jason Sobel when you guys decided to take both of my favorite targets in this $9,000 range. From a roster construction standpoint, I am proud of the group because the selections are sharp, but it did cause a massive deviation to take place for me that I was hoping to avoid. Horschel is the number one golfer in this field at short Par 70 tracks and also grades fourth for me from a safety perspective.

Shane Lowry ($9,400) – Shane Lowry ranks 11th in my recalculated tee-to-green metric to mimic PGA National and is also fourth in strokes gained approach over his past 24 rounds. Maybe you can try to pick a bone about his bunker play historically, but I do believe the Irishman is one of the safer targets on the slate.

Other Targets: Alex Noren ($9,300), Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900) – I would rather get up to Daniel Berger or down to Billy Horschel and Shane Lowry, but I wouldn’t be excluding the two in MME builds.

$8,000 Range

Brian Harman ($8,700) – Sharp money has been pouring in all week on Brian Harman, and it is easy to understand why when you look at his profile. Harman ranks inside the top-20 on fast Bermuda, difficult courses, wind, bogey avoidance and sand save percentage, and I thought was the top target on the board that went undrafted.

Jhonattan Vegas ($8,500) – There are some issues Jhonattan Vegas possesses both ATG and out of bunkers, but I love the ball-striking upside. Vegas has averaged 4.08 strokes tee-to-green over his past 13 starts. I took him first overall in the draft because of the safety that I believe he provides, but I also have an outright ticket on him because the ball-striking can shine at PGA National.

Aaron Wise ($8,400) – I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have my reservations, but Aaron Wise has been a coastal specialist throughout his career, and the improvement with his flat stick might be enough for him to reach the next level at PGA National. I am going to take the positives that Wise gained 2.8 shots ball-striking at the Genesis and hope he can continue that improved form at a venue he has averaged 5.46 shots tee-to-green in his career.

Other Thoughts: Gary Woodland ($8,200), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,000) – I will consider Woodland/ Bezuidenhout and include both into my player pool.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Ryan Palmer ($7,900) – The takeaway from everyone will be that Ryan Palmer has put more balls in the water during the ‘Bear Trap’ than any other golfer, but two top-17 finishes in his past two trips makes this more than a doom-and-gloom situation.

C.T. Pan ($7,700) – I don’t think I have ever backed C.T. Pan before in any market, but he was one of my most prominent climbers when I condensed the data down to certain areas. Top-15 in weighted tee-to-green. A third-place finish at this venue in 2021 and a top-10 in his last start at the Genesis.

Rickie Fowler ($7,600) -There is a ton of volatility around Rickie Fowler, but the good portions of his portfolio make him worth a shot in GPP contests. Fowler has come inside the top-two at PGA National twice since 2017, and he ranks third in my reweighted tee-to-green data.

Chris Kirk ($7,500) – I love where Chris Kirk’s game has been trending over the past few starts. The American has gained tee-to-green in his last eight, and he has also averaged +1.04 around the green and +1.56 off the tee. Kirk is a positive putter on Bermuda and always excels on these bogey avoidance-type tracks. The 36-year-old is second in my recalculated tee-to-green category that is specific for PGA National, and he is one of only five players to grade inside the top-33 in all categories I looked at for the week — Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka, Brian Harman and Sungjae Im are the other four.

Michael Thompson ($7,500) – Three top-24 finishes at this course for Michael Thompson in his last four attempts. The recent form provides some trepidation, but Thompson is a golfer that outperforms his price tag quite often.

Sepp Straka ($7,400) – The weighted proximity numbers are great, and the course history has been solid with back-to-back top-33 finishes.

Additional Thoughts: K.H. Lee ($7,700), Brendon Todd ($7,500), Lucas Glover ($7,400), Sam Ryder ($7,200), Stewart Cink ($7,100)

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Mark Hubbard ($6,900), Ryan Armour ($6,600), Satoshi Kodaira ($6,600), Luke Donald ($6,400).

3 years ago 0 comments

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Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

As Joel Schrek (and LL Cool J) like to say, we are going back to Cali for the Genesis Invitational. This week 119 players will be teeing it up in an absolutely loaded field. Please make sure you catch our live show (“The PGA DraftCast”) from Tuesday night for a complete model breakdown and our favorite Draftkings picks. I’m personally looking for the complete golfer this week and that will require good ball striking and a good short game. Much like last week, I’ll be placing extra emphasis on course history. Now let’s get to the Genesis Initial Picks.

Patrick Cantlay (11000) – Truly a toss up between Cantlay and Rahm but if I was forced to pick, I’d go with Cantlay as he is in good form and seems to love the Cali swing. The APP game hasn’t been elite but it’s been good enough and he definitely has plenty of short game prowess.

Rory McIlroy (9700) – The APP game was off late last year and therefore his metrics are down a bit in your model, but I love what he did overseas over the last month and I think he has the expertise and course history to navigate this course and potentially take this tournament down.

Cam Smith (9100) – If you’re looking for a technician, look no further than Cam Smith who also has the complete game to compete in this talent-laden field. Cam’s OTT game hasn’t been great but he checks every other box including great course history.

Jordan Spieth (8900) – Good course history and a good setup for him as even if he’s wayward off the tee, he should have the requisite creativity, APP and short game to be ok out here. I like the form he’s in and think that he has upside at this price.

Max Homa (8300) – Certainly won’t rate out well in your modeling, but he’s starting to come on strong and he appears to absolutely love the Genesis with a 1st and a 5th over his last two efforts. Add to that he’s coming in with good form and you’ve got some upside here.

Adam Scott (8200) – Recent history suggests his game is emerging and I love his course history at The Genesis. Plenty of upside with the ball striking and the PUTT and if he can be average with ARG he can easily pay off his price tag.

Talor Gooch (8000) – Doesn’t rate out very well OTT, but is very good in every other category including APP and ARG and the long proximities we will be looking for on the long Par 4s. He also checks the great course history box and looks to be a great value. I’ll note that I also like Matt Fitzpatrick in this range at 8100.

Luke List (7400) – Coming off an underwhelming 53rd at the WMPO, but remains in elite form outside of a PUTT that is prone to being a problem. With that said, his game sets up very well here as he has both the short and long game at his disposal and has good course history.

Cameron Tringale (7300) – it feels like a good bounce back spot and price for Tringale here. I’ll admit he doesn’t rate out as well as I would have thought, but I still think he has the complete game to survive and advance to the weekend at likely low ownership. Speaking of a bounce back spot, I will also be playing some shares of Seamus Power in this range at 7500.

Lanto Griffin (7200) – My main issue with Lanto on this course should be his ARG game, but he appears to have turned that part of his game around. If that trend continues then he’s a great value as he has the APP and PUTT game to make some noise at this price.

Matt Kuchar (6800) – Put simply, the ball striking has just been way off with Kuchar. However, if there were a tournament for him to tactically play his way past the cut line, it would likely be the Genesis where he can plot out each shot and lean on a solid short game. The upside is capped here, but I think this is the venue where the Kuchar of old could emerge.

Doug Ghim (6500) – He’s been making a lot of cuts lately and we know that he’s classically a great ball striker. He’s only played the Genesis once and had an MC, but if vintage Ghim is back, he’s a value at this price. The PUTT can get him in trouble for sure, but I’ll play the upside.

Aaron Rai (6400) – no course experience at The Genesis, but he’s been pretty great lately making 7 out of his last 8 cuts. Truth is, he’s not doing much at an elite level, but the ability to make this many cuts has my attention. There are plenty of others in this range I like including Brendan Grace and J.T. Poston.

Secret Weapon – 48-16. See you in Discord.

Be sure to get in our Discord, watch our show and sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Genesis Invitational

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Patrick Cantlay ($11,000) – For such a long time, we had this narrative that Patrick Cantlay was only playable on the west coast, which has gone away (rightfully so), but it has now turned into something different where the industry seems to continually be overlooking him in these spots near the top of the board in pricing. It happened last week at TPC Scottsdale, and it is trending in that direction here at Riviera Country Club. Cantlay has been brilliant at the course in his career, posting four top-17 finishes in four attempts, and he enters the week as arguably the hottest player on tour.

Justin Thomas ($10,700) – In my opinion, this is your top contrarian pivot near the top of the board. Collin Morikawa is a massive underdog at credible offshore books against Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy. That doesn’t mean he isn’t in play because of that fact, but I think it is Thomas that you want to consider as your under-the-radar man in the $10,000 range. The American ranks first in my recalculated tee-to-green category, and he seems to be a hot putter away from getting back into the winner’s circle.

Dustin Johnson ($10,200) – It is hard to say anything negative about Dustin Johnson at Riviera Country Club. Eight straight top-16 results since 2014, which is highlighted by a victory in 2017. We could go on and on about the big-hitter at this course, but I just wish Johnson would have been slightly higher priced to detract some of the ownership. As things stand, I am fine where the number is currently at (20 percent), but I do believe his win equity is less than that of Justin Thomas. Safer floor, yes. But I like swinging for the fence on Thomas when deciding directly between the two.

Other Consideration – I won’t have any Collin Morikawa, and I will be unusually underweight to Jon Rahm.

$9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele ($9,900) – I mentioned this on both ‘Bettor Golf Pod’ and ‘PGA Draftcast,’ but this is just the second time over the past year where Jon Rahm has not graded number one from a statistical perspective during a tournament he was entered into the field. The last occurrence came with Justin Thomas at the Players Championship – an event he ended as the winner – and my model is producing those same vibes here at Riviera Country Club for Xander Schauffele.

Cameron Smith ($9,100) –We have gotten a few volatile results from Cameron Smith over the years at Riviera, but the good has resulted in multiple top-10 showings since 2017. The Aussie ranks inside the top-10 of this field in five of the seven categories I ran inside of my model.

Other Targets: Rory McIlroy ($9,700) – The Irishman enters the week with quality form, having posted seven worldwide top-18 results over as many starts.

$8,000 Range

Jordan Spieth ($8,900) – Whenever you can grab a sub-10 percent owned Jordan Spieth and possibly a sub-five percent version in this situation, I always become intrigued. Spieth has been solid at this venue in the past, providing three top-22 finishes since 2017 and grades inside the top-12 of my model from an upside perspective.

Other Thoughts: Bubba Watson ($8,500), Tony Finau ($8,400) and Talor Gooch ($8,400) are some of my other preferred targets in this range.

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Russell Henley ($7,900) – Russell Henley has gained tee-to-green in 13 of his past 14 starts on tour, and the course history has been trending at this track, providing four-straight made cuts.

Joaquin Niemann ($7,800) – Back-to-back top-10s to start the year for Joaquin Niemann has him buzzing into the Genesis. My model places him 15th overall, which is shown by his top-20 grades in tee-to-green and weighted par-four scoring.

Paul Casey ($7,600) – Paul Casey has been a wizard at difficult courses in his career, but it is going to come down to how the short game can perform on these fast greens. The ball-striking is good enough for him to sneak his way into the top-10, but you would have to imagine the around the green and putting metrics will have to hold as steady as possible for him to find his highest level of success.

Kevin Na ($7,600) – Kevin Na seemed to break my model. Inside the top-10 of all iterations of my sheet, Na has the iron proximity numbers and short game intangibles to get himself inside the top-10 at this event for the fifth time. I am going to use less of him than my model would like to see because I have my hesitations, but there is a lot to like about his chances from a statistical standpoint.

Seamus Power ($7,500) – I feel like there has been a small overcorrection to the market after Seamus Power not only disappointed at the Waste Management but also collapsed in front of the industry at Pebble Beach. With that being said, Power has come inside the top-31 in 15 of his past 19 starts, and the missed cut last weekend at TPC Scottsdale was the culprit of a cold putter that saw him lose 2.4 strokes to the field. The 34-year-old still gained in all other categories for the week, and I think the recency bias here is placing Seamus inside of the wrong tier of golfers.

Additional Thoughts: Jason Kokrak ($7,700), Thomas Pieters ($7,400), Maverick McNealy ($7,200), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,200), Ryan Palmer ($7,000) are all very much in play.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: You can use my model to get some plays you might like! I am not in love with this territory, but you likely will find yourself down here on certain builds. I did during the ‘PGA Draftcast’ where I selected Doug Ghim $6,500.

3 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Picks

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Consideration – I will be underweight to the field on Dustin Johnson.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: Tyrrell Hatton ($9,800), Shane Lowry ($9,700), Sam Burns ($9,600), Jason Kokrak ($9,200) and Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,000) are all in play. The margins are very thin between the group, but I likely would power rank them Hatton, Lowry, Fitzpatrick, Burns and Kokrak.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Alex Noren ($8,700), Cameron Tringale ($8,000)

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: There are a handful of additional spots to look into for the week. You can use my model to see some of the other golfers that are showing as a value.

$6,000 Range

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Consideration – Collin Morikawa ($10,700) and Rory McIlroy ($10,800) are both in play. Morikawa will be the chalk. Rory provides some contrarian leverage.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: Dustin Johnson ($9,800) – I honestly don’t know what to expect out of Johnson, but his potential places him firmly in the mix when it comes to GPP builds. Jordan Spieth ($9,000). GPP-only also.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: If you are ballsy enough to play Tony Finau at $8,500, there is top-20 potential available. The floor is lower than the slew of balls on the bottom of the 17th, but I assume he is no higher than two percent owned. That sort of leverage always intrigues me. Louis Oosthuizen ($8,700).

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Jason Day ($7,500) – No, seriously. Day grades as a value this week. Paul Casey ($7,400), Talor Gooch ($7,200), Chris Kirk ($7,000), Alex Noren ($7,000)

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Keegan Bradley ($6,900), Brian Harman ($6,900), Sebastian Munoz ($6,700), Aaron Wise ($6,600), Thomas Pieters ($6,300)

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Consideration – All five golfers rank inside the top-six of my model. It is hard to find many faults with the group.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: I’d monitor ownership, but there is a ton of popularity in this range.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Sam Burns ($8,800) – GPP Only. Max Homa ($8,700), Jason Kokrak ($8,400), Paul Casey ($8,300) and Keith Mitchell ($8,100) will all be in my pool.

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Luke List ($7,500), Cameron Young ($7,500), Erik Van Rooyen ($7,400), Kevin Na ($7,400), Si Woo Kim ($7,300), Lanto Griffin ($7,100), Sahith Theegala $7,000, Thomas Pieters ($7,000) – GPP only. Tons of risk and upside.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Carlos Ortiz ($6,900), Adam Svensson ($6,700), Garrick Higgo ($6,700), Cameron Davis ($6,600), Alex Smalley ($6,400), Charles Howell III ($6,400), Doug Ghim ($6,300), Trey Mullinax ($6,200).

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Consideration – I am not going to talk anyone out of whoever they like for the week.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: Alex Noren ($9,300), Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900) – I would rather get up to Daniel Berger or down to Billy Horschel and Shane Lowry, but I wouldn’t be excluding the two in MME builds.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Gary Woodland ($8,200), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,000) – I will consider Woodland/ Bezuidenhout and include both into my player pool.

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: K.H. Lee ($7,700), Brendon Todd ($7,500), Lucas Glover ($7,400), Sam Ryder ($7,200), Stewart Cink ($7,100)

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Mark Hubbard ($6,900), Ryan Armour ($6,600), Satoshi Kodaira ($6,600), Luke Donald ($6,400).

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Consideration – I won’t have any Collin Morikawa, and I will be unusually underweight to Jon Rahm.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: Rory McIlroy ($9,700) – The Irishman enters the week with quality form, having posted seven worldwide top-18 results over as many starts.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Bubba Watson ($8,500), Tony Finau ($8,400) and Talor Gooch ($8,400) are some of my other preferred targets in this range.

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Jason Kokrak ($7,700), Thomas Pieters ($7,400), Maverick McNealy ($7,200), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,200), Ryan Palmer ($7,000) are all very much in play.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: You can use my model to get some plays you might like! I am not in love with this territory, but you likely will find yourself down here on certain builds. I did during the ‘PGA Draftcast’ where I selected Doug Ghim $6,500.

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