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Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Play-In Tournament (Apr. 12)

On the second day of the NBA Play-In tournament, there are two intriguing matchups. The Eastern Conference side features two underachieving rosters. Meanwhile, the Western Conference side has two rosters set to contend in the near future.

Here is the NBA Playoff bracket with final seeding:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. In both this article and the Opening Round Matchup Breakdown articles, there will be rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Toronto Raptors (9) vs. Chicago Bulls (10)

Toronto Raptors (-5.5)

Introduction

Although they won an NBA Championship only a few seasons ago, this roster looks like it needs a massive overhaul. Scottie Barnes is a player to build a franchise around, and Pascal Siakam remains an All-NBA talent. However, the inconsistency of Fred VanVleet along with a combination of injuries and a short bench ruined the potential of a successful season for the Raptors.

Matchup

Despite an offense that thrives on switchability and getting to the rim, this matchup will be exploited on the perimeter. Outside of Alex Caruso, the Bulls do not have elite perimeter defenders. Yes, Patrick Beverley was added to the roster, but he is the furthest thing from an impact player when the cards are on the table. Moreover, the Bulls ranked 29th in the NBA in three-pointers allowed per game. This creates an excellent scenario for Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. off the bench.

Rotation

Coach Nick Nurse plays his cards tight. As he always has, whether it is a regular season game in January or the NBA Play-In round. Look for Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Scottie Barnes to garner all the minutes they can handle. Moreover, Jakob Poeltl will man the paint, while OG Anunoby flanks the wings. Elsewhere, Gary Trent Jr. will be the first guard off the bench, while Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher will pick up a few minutes in the frontcourt.

X-Factor

While Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam will lead the offense, no one is as important as Scottie Barnes. In the few minutes VanVleet takes off, Barnes will handle the rock. Moreover, his combination of scoring, playmaking, and rebounding makes him elite in all aspects of the game. Lastly, he has the most important defensive assignment of the night in guarding one of Zach Lavine or DeMar DeRozan at all times.

Chicago Bulls (+5.5)

Introduction

Despite having a lot of money committed to their “Big 3”, Chicago had yet another disappointing season. Only Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozan averaged over 20 points per game. Elsewhere only Patrick Williams (10.2 points per game) chipped in double digits per night. This team is not only severely limited on offense, but they are in one of the toughest matchups they could have possibly imagined in the NBA Play-In round.

Matchup

This is simply an awful matchup for the Bulls. Yes, the Raptors have underwhelmed this season after winning an NBA Championship only a few years ago. Gone is Kawhi Leonard, but the core of this team remains intact. Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby will wreck havoc on the defensive side of the ball, while the acquisition of Jakob Poeltl gives Toronto an interior presence they have lacked. It will be a low-scoring affair, and massive changes await the Bulls if they do not make it out of this game.

Rotation

Chicago can approach their rotation in a few ways heading into this game. The intelligent way to do would be offsetting Lavine, DeRozan, and Vucevic so that two of three are on the court at all times. Zach Lavine needs to lead the team in minutes if they want a shot at winning. Moreover, while he was inconsistent at times this season, Fred VanVleet needs to be guarded by Alex Caruso. Elsewhere, Patrick Williams is a good fit in this one, while Patrick Beverley will likely get more attention than Coby White, despite the former being useless on the offensive side of the ball. If Beverley gets more minutes than Caruso and White, there is no doubt that it will be the demise of the Bulls.

X-Factor

This issue for this Bulls offense is just how stout Toronto’s defense can be. When you have Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby guarding you, their wingspans allow them to contest nearly every shot successfully. However, Zach Lavine will have to be the key contributor tonight. Yes, DeMar DeRozan is the king of the midrange jumper. However, it is Lavine that will be able to not only create shots for others, but his own.

New Orleans Pelicans (9) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (10)

New Orleans Pelicans (-5.5)

Introduction

It was an underwhelming season for the Pelicans. After a torrid start to the year, where they went 18-8, the injury bug caught up to them. Zion Williamson was held to a mere 29 appearances, while Brandon Ingram made 45 of his own. However, this roster is well constructed and has potential. Ingram leads the offense, while a savvy veteran in CJ McCollum gives New Orleans stability in the backcourt. Flanked by two of the most underrated defenders in the NBA, the Pelicans look good heading into this matchup, if they can hold the young Thunder in check.

Matchup

An unsettling matchup looms for the Pelicans. While the Thunder’s defensive unit is far from elite, this is an offense that posted the fifth-most points per game in the NBA. On the offensive side of the ball, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum will carry the highest usage rates. However, do not overlook Jonas Valanciunas. Yes, his minutes are in question, depending on the matchup throughout the regular season. But in a one-and-done scenario, look for Valanciunas to dominate an OKC interior that ranked 22nd versus true centers and 28th in rebounding percentage.

Rotation

Considering the Pelicans roster is appropriately placed on the pricing grid tonight, there is not much interest in their bench. Additionally, this figures to be one of, if not the tightest rotations in the Play-In. Brandon Ingram will flank CJ McCollum in the backcourt. Meanwhile, the perimeter defensive duo of Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III have a daunting task ahead of them. Jonas Valanciunas will man the paint and is in a terrific matchup, as alluded to above. Elsewhere, Josh Richardson and Naji Marshall will be the first to come off the bench, as will Larry Nance Jr., should he be healthy enough. If not, look for one of Jaxson Hayes or Willy Hernangomez to pick up a few minutes.

X-Factor

No one will be as crucial for the Pelicans in this game as Herbert Jones. Yes, he has many limitations on offense. Not only did he averaged a mere 9.8 points per game on a horrific 14.5% usage rate, but his shot is incredibly inconsistent. However, Jones is a candidate for an All-NBA defense team this year and has been tremendous when guarding primary ball handlers. Thus, with a matchup against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the horizon, he will be in for a ton of minutes.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+5.5)

Introduction

While most had the Thunder set for the NBA draft lottery, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had other plans. Not only did the Canadian break out this season, but he finished fourth in league scoring. Moreover, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams were terrific this year. Giddey came through on multiple occasions, averaging 16.6/7.9/6.2 on 48.2% shooting. Additionally, had it not been for Paolo Banchero, Williams would be the favorite for Rookie of the Year. JDub had a terrific run after the All-Star break and finished fourth in rookie scoring.

Matchup

Despite the loss of Zion Williamson, the Pelicans have a stout defensive unit. Not only did they rank 6th in the NBA in defensive rating, but they also allowed the ninth-fewest points per game. However, the backcourt of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey will give the Pelicans all they can handle. The Pelicans have two terrific perimeter defenders and this one will come down to who can outduel the other.

Rotation

Four players will seemingly not leave the court for the Thunder tonight. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, and Lu Dort figure to play the most minutes. Moreover, the duo of Jaylin Williams and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl will man the paint. Elsewhere, Isaiah Joe will be the first guard off the bench. Lastly, their minutes aren’t guaranteed, but Dario Saric, Tre Mann, and Lindy Waters III are darkhorse candidates, depending on the flow of the game.

X-Factor

The role that Lu Dort will have to play in this game cannot go overlooked. Yes, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will lead the offense. Moreover, Josh Giddey will be a force on both ends of the court. But it is Dort that will have to step up in a big way. The 3-and-D wing has a perfect game for the NBA Playoffs. He is an excellent defender and can hit the three well. In a matchup versus Brandon Ingram, Dort will have to excel on both ends of the court.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Play-In Tournament (Apr. 11)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With the NBA season concluded, it’s time for the best part of the season. The Play-In tournament was introduced three seasons ago and has been a great addition to the existing format. In a one-and-done scenario for some, every second of these games is crucial.

Here is the NBA Playoff bracket with final seeding:

Miami Heat (7) vs. Atlanta Hawks (8)

Miami Heat (-5.5)

Introduction

Despite their shortcomings on offense, Miami has one of the best defensive units in the NBA Playoffs. A one-two punch of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo on the perimeter and in the paint, respectively, is one of the best combinations in the league. However, the Heat will need to find a way to produce offensively. No player averaged more than 11.5 points per game outside of Butler, Adebayo, and Tyler Herro. Additionally, Miami had the lowest scoring offense in the league this year with 109.5 points per game.

Matchup

On paper and in real time, these two teams are complete opposites. Miami had the worst scoring offense in the league, while only being ranked 25th in offensive rating and 29th in pace. However, the Hawks posted over 118 points per game, ranking them third in the league. They also were 7th in offensive rating and 6th in pace.

Rotation

The Heat will only go as far as Butler, Adebayo, and Herro take them. On a two-game NBA slate, raw points are king. Thus, Butler and Herro make for the most intriguing options on this roster. Elsewhere, look for Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love, and Caleb Martin to see decent run. Other candidates, would be Victor Oladipo, Gabe Vincent, and Cody Zeller, but don’t count on it.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, Jimmy Butler will be the best player on the court. However, there is a good chance that Tyler Herro leads the team in scoring. If the Hawks play this one properly, they would have Hunter on Butler, Murray on Herro, and Young on Strus or Lowry. However, the Hawks have been reluctant to do so this season, meaning whoever lands on an individual matchup versus Trae Young will be crucial to a win.

Atlanta Hawks (+5.5)

Introduction

In an awkward position with a lot of money and term committed to multiple players, the Hawks stumbled into the Play-In tournament this season. Atlanta is still a key piece or two away from being true contenders, but they have a legitimate shot at winning this game due to their offensive firepower. In a year where offenses were taken to new heights, it was Atlanta who scored the third-most points per game, posting the seventh-best offensive rating amongst all teams.

Matchup

On paper, this is a horrendous matchup for the Hawks’ main contributors. Trae Young will certainly lead the offense, but Miami has the best perimeter defense in the NBA this season. Moreover, they ranked first against true primary ball handlers. Where Miami could be exploited is on the deep ball; the Heat ranked 28th in the league this season to three-point shooters, giving up 13.1 makes per game.

Rotation

Trae Young and Dejounte Murray lead a star-studded backcourt, surrounded by quality role players. De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, and Clint Capela likely round out the starting unit in this one. Meanwhile, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, and Onyeka Okongwu round out what can certainly be one of, if not the tightest rotation in the Play-In round.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, De’Andre Hunter will be the most crucial contributor not named Trae Young or Dejounte Murray. While both John Collins and Clint Capela have their hands full with Bam Adebayo guarding the paint, it is Hunter that will benefit from a Heat defensive unit known to switch Jimmy Butler onto primary ball handlers. Being one of the most promising 3-and-D wings in the NBA since coming out of Virginia, Hunter will be relied upon on both ends of the court.

Los Angeles Lakers (7) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5)

Introduction

Despite a season of turmoil, the Lakers turned things around to get into the Play-In tournament. This team has one of the best duos in the NBA, alongside quality role players whom were acquired at the trade deadline. The highlight of the season has to be the emergence of Austin Reaves, who will play a crucial role in the Lakers’ playoff run.

Matchup

In the absence of Rudy Gobert, no player has a better matchup than Anthony Davis. Moreover, LeBron James figures to dominate against a Minnesota team that struggled to guard primary ball handlers all season long. With Minnesota playing at a fast pace with like Los Angeles does, only with far worse defense, this one plays right into the Lakers’ hands.

Rotation

This Lakers rotation is surprisingly deep thanks to an overhaul at the trade deadline. Alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will play prominent minutes. Moreover, Jarred Vanderbilt and his defensive ability will earn him significant run. Rounding out the rotation, when necessary, are Dennis Schroder (when healthy), Malik Beasley, and Tory Brown Jr. There is potential for Rui Hachimura and/or Wenyen Gabriel to see some time if the Lakers make a Playoff run, but their minutes will be scarce.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be a difference-maker without being the consensus top talent on his team. In this game, the duo of D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will be relied upon to take advantage of a poor Minnesota perimeter defense. On the season, Minnesota ranked 25th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, which bodes well for LeBron James, but Reaves and Russell have enticing matchups versus Mike Conley, Taurean Prince, and Anthony Edwards.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+7.5)

Introduction

The Minnesota overhaul was a disaster. Rudy Gobert was acquired in the offseason for far too many assets, and it simply has not worked out. This offense is stagnant, relying on Anthony Edwards in isolation far too often. Meanwhile, the defensive unit has been mediocre at best. In a matchup versus a streaking Lakers team, the Timberwolves will be lucky to be in this game at the start of the fourth quarter.

Matchup

The highlight of this matchup will be the pace of play. Respectively, Los Angeles and Minnesota ranked 4th and 7th in the NBA this season. However, when the individual matchups are broken down, there is not much to like about the Timberwolves. Sure, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will handle a ridiculous number of offensive looks, but lining up on LeBron James and Anthony Davis is no joke. Moreover, Minnesota will be forced to rely on role players who, themselves, are outmatched by the likes of D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Jarred Vanderbilt.

Rotation

Minnesota’s season was underwhelming after the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, and it was truthfully expected. In this game, expect to see as much Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as you ever have. Moreover, Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince will be forced into meaningful minutes. Since Jaylen Nowell missed five straight games to end the regular season, Jordan McLaughlin and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are the first guards off the bench. Filler minutes will be there for Austin Rivers and Nathan Knight, if necessary.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, the Timberwolves simply do not stand a chance if Towns does not have one of the best games of his career. With Rudy Gobert suspended and Naz Reid out for the season, Towns will have to stay out of foul trouble against Anthony Davis. This is not going to go well for Minneosta.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 16)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Despite only five games being on the NBA schedule tonight, there are many stars taking the court. A few matchups are heavily favored in the direction of two Championship contenders, but there are two games that stand above the rest. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Sacramento Kings @ Brooklyn Nets (-2.5)

Sacramento Kings (+2.5)

On the second half of a back-to-back, there is no question that the Kings find themselves in the best game environment of the NBA slate. Despite holding the #2 seed in the Western Conference, Sacramento is somehow not favored in this game. Thus, there is a chance that De’Aaron Fox is resting. However, until that news is confirmed, he is in a terrific spot. Not only has Fox strung together two straight 30-point performances, but he leads the league in clutch scoring. Should Brooklyn be unable to switch Mikal Bridges onto Fox routinely, which is going to be the case, Fox will have his way with Spencer Dinwiddie.

Brooklyn Nets (-2.5)

The Kings have the best offensive rating in the NBA, but rank 26th in defensive rating this season. Over their last ten games, they rank 29th with a whopping 120.1 net defensive rating, while allowing 126.3 points per game. Enter the duo of Mikal Bridges and Spencer Dinwiddie, who have been carrying the offense since arriving to town. Moreover, Cam Johnson gets a matchup with a Kings defense that ranks 29th in wing defense, while allowing the 18th-most three-pointers per game.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Toronto Raptors (-5.5)

Oklahoma City Thunder (+5.5)

There simply is no stopping Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season. The face of the Thunder franchise now sits fifth in NBA scoring with 31.3 points per game. Moreover, he has scored 30 or more points in five straight games, averaging 36/6.2/4.6 on 51.8% shooting during that span. While Scottie Barnes is an elite perimeter defender, SGA will put on a show in front of his hometown crowd.

Toronto Raptors (-5.5)

This OKC defense is certainly far from elite, and they are most exposed to combo wings and on the inside. Two players are of high interest in this one, and they are not the familiar faces most will play when getting exposure to the Raptors offense. While the field trends toward Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, both OG Anunoby and Jakob Poeltl have terrific matchups. After missing a month with a wrist injury, Anunoby has yet to play under 30 minutes since his return, while averaging 27.5 points per game in his last two appearances. Moreover, Jakob Poeltl has been a walking double-double in his second stint with the team, averaging 14.7/9.3/2.7 in 13 appearances with the team.

Honorable Mentions:

Denver Nuggets @ Detroit Pistons (+12.5)
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks (-13.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 14)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The race for playoff positioning is quickly heating up. NBA teams continue to jockey for seeding, while others attempt to best their competition for the Play-In round. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

Brooklyn Nets (+1.5)

Since their arrivals in Brooklyn, both Spencer Dinwiddie and Mikal Bridges have made a significant impact. While the Nets no longer have a game-changing superstar, this roster is built with depth and improved ball movement. Over his last five games, Bridges leads the team in both usage rate and scoring. Alongside Dinwiddie, who is second in both scoring and usage rate, Bridges has been able to flourish offensively. Moreover, Nic Claxton gets a friendly matchup against an OKC interior defense that ranks 26th in the NBA to true centers, while being ranked 26th in rebounding percentage.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been removed from the injury report after resting on Sunday night. Since he has sat out the last few back-to-backs for OKC, SGA looks rejuvenated out there. Over his last four games, he has scored 30 or more points in all four appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 36.3/6/4.8 on 52.2% shooting during that span. With many enticing options at the top of the pricing grid on this NBA slate, including Nikola Jokic, Damian Lillard, and Anthony Davis, SGA will likely be less of a priority for the rest of the field, making him an enticing tournament play.

New York Knicks @ Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)

New York Knicks (-2.5)

Jalen Brunson has missed the last two games for the Knicks and is unlikely to play again tonight. Thus, Julius Randle and Immanuel Quickley will shoulder the load on offense. The former leads the team with a commanding 38.5% usage rate without Brunson this last weekend, averaging 26/8/4 on a mere 33.3% shooting. Moreover, the duo of Quickley and RJ Barrett are awkwardly positioned on the pricing grid tonight, making this game a commitment if choosing to play either one of them. Lastly, Josh Hart has seen his minutes increase since arriving to New York, logging 30 or more minutes in his last six games. During that span, he has averaged a modest 8.7/9/3.7 on 59.3% shooting with little volume.

Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)

Should Damian Lillard be ruled out tonight with a calf injury, this offense becomes more enticing. The trio of Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, and Cam Reddish will all see more offensive opportunity should Lillard be ruled out. This is a tough situation to evaluate considering it is the last game of the NBA slate, but there is tremendous upside here at different positions of the pricing grid.

Honorable Mentions:

Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs (+5.5)
Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans (-1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 7)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

After last night’s NBA slate was turned on its head with many stars ruled out, expect more of the same tonight. Key players are already on their respective team’s injury reports, while others will surely join them. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks (-6.5)

Utah Jazz (+6.5)

This NBA slate will have plenty of value but the Jazz rotation will go overlooked. In the absence of Collin Sexton, there is amply opportunity for both Kris Dunn and Ochai Agbaji to thrive. Yes, Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson will lead the charge on offense, but the two will get plenty of action in a thin rotation. Since signing a 10-day contract, Kris Dunn has been phenomenal. The former Providence standout has averaged 13/3.4/4.2 on 54.9% shooting in five appearances, while being the first man off the bench. Moreover, a standout 3-and-D wings in this year’s NBA Draft, Agbaji is finally getting the opportunity he deserves. Over his last seven appearances, he has averaged 28.4 minutes per game. Moreover, this has resulted in a 11.7/2.4/1.6 scoring line, where he has scored in double digits in four of seven appearances.

Dallas Mavericks (-6.5)

While Luka Doncic does not have to be the one taking the final shot anymore, this backcourt duo is awfully enticing on this NBA slate. Make no mistake about it, Doncic has the clear ceiling between the two, given his edge in rebounding and passing the ball. However, Kyrie Irving has quietly been dominant in his short stint with the Mavericks. Over his nine appearances with the team, he ranks third in usage rate at 27.5% and second in scoring with 27.4 points per game. Moreover, he has averaged 27.4/5/7 on a ridiculous 52/41/92 shooting split, which places him in the elusive 50/40/90 club. This matchup is also great for Irving, as Utah struggles mightily off the ball, ranking 25th in net defensive rating versus secondary ball handlers.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers (-2.5)

Memphis Grizzlies (+2.5)

Despite the return of Dillon Brooks after serving his one-game suspension, the Grizzlies are missing many key players tonight. Ja Morant remains out of the lineup, as do both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke in the frontcourt. While he no longer at the very bottom of the pricing grid, no NBA lineup construction should begin without Tyus Jones. Coming off a 25/3/12 game against the Clippers, Jones has been phenomenal in ten starts this season. During those appearances, he has averaged 19.4/3.5/8.1 on 53.1% shooting. The Lakers rank 28th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, setting the stage for Jones to be a focal point of lineups once again.

Los Angeles Lakers (-2.5)

There is a lot of uncertainty at the top of the pricing grid. However, this NBA slate adds a second candidate, in addition to Luka Doncic, at the very top: Anthony Davis. While his rebounding numbers have been taking a dip for multiple years in a row, AD is still an elite scorer and interior defender. Against a Memphis frontcourt that will be without both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, Davis will be able to dominate the paint on both ends of the floor. Coming off back-to-back 30-point efforts, where he averaged 38.5/6.5/4 across 35 minutes per game, Davis will lead the charge once again for the Lakers.

Honorable Mentions:

Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons (+6.5)
Brooklyn Nets @ Houston Rockets (+7.5)
Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+4.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 1)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Tonight’s NBA slate will be altered by final injury reports. While rebuilding teams have many players ruled out, others are on the second half of a back-to-back. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons (+5.5)

Chicago Bulls (-5.5)

The Bulls are on the second half of a back-to-back, meaning this is a key injury report to monitor. Should one of Nikola Vucevic, Zach Lavine, or DeMar DeRozan end up sitting this game, the other two will quickly rise up the player rankings of this NBA slate. However, if all three suit up, Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozan are the preferred targets. The two have had lackluster seasons, but this Pistons defense ranks 28th in the league. While they were stifled last night versus a stout Raptors defense last night, this Bulls offense will get back on track here.

Detroit Pistons (+5.5)

Injuries continue to riddle the rebuilding Pistons. Isaiah Stewart (hip) has been ruled out once again, while Jalen Duren (ankle) also remains out. However, Detroit should be able to get both Jaden Ivey (personal) and Bojan Bogdanovic (achilles) back in the lineup tonight. While the value remains in the frontcourt in the form of James Wiseman and Marvin Bagley III, their usage rates take a big hit with the returns of their teammates. Moreover, Killian Hayes, Alec Burks, and Hamidou Diallo round out the rotation, all of whom make for intriguing tournament plays in their own right.

Phoenix Suns @ Charlotte Hornets (+9.5)

Phoenix Suns (-9.5)

Kevin Durant is set to make his Suns debut tonight and the NBA will be on watch. The new super team in the league is set to all take the court together for the first time, as Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton are all set to suit up. However, this greatly impacts each one of their production in fantasy basketball. Durant is set to lead the charge on offense, as he always has, but both Chris Paul and Devin Booker need the ball in their hands to make a significant contribution to lineups. Thus, this is a wait-and-see approach, despite the excellent matchup.

Charlotte Hornets (+9.5)

One of the most key injuries on this NBA slate is the Hornets’ LaMelo Ball. The face of the franchise has been ruled out for the remainder of the season after fracturing his ankle in Monday’s win over Detroit. However, this creates more opportunity for others. If you think this game stays close, then Terry Rozier is a core piece to lineups. On the season, Rozier has posted 1.04 fantasy points per minute through a 26.6% usage rate. However, with Ball off the court, Rozier has posted 1.11 fantasy points per minute through an increased 30.1% usage rate. Should you go elsewhere in the mid range of the pricing grid over Rozier, Dennis Smith Jr. makes for an excellent pivot while still getting exposure to this offense.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+1.5)

Los Angeles Lakers (-1.5)

At the top of the pricing grid, no one is as important on this NBA slate as Anthony Davis. The Lakers are on the second half of a back-to-back, but essentially need every win they can get in order to make a playoff push. In the absence of LeBron James, AD simply won’t leave the court. After posting 28/19 with five blocks last night, Davis gets a matchup versus an OKC frontcourt that ranks 23rd in the league versus true centers and sits 26th in rebounding percentage.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+1.5)

With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander entering health and safety protocols, he is likely to miss tonight’s game versus the Lakers. Thus, as was mentioned in yesterday’s article, Josh Giddey makes for an excellent play on this NBA slate in the mid range of the pricing grid. While both he and Lu Dort plays a mere 40 minutes combined yesterday, this was because the two combined to be -60 in plus/minus differential. While the Thunder only lost to Sacramento by six points, it was the bench who carried them there. Do not expect a repeat performance here; get exposure to OKC in the form of Giddey, Joe, Dort, and Jalen Williams.

Honorable Mentions:

Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks (-8.5)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 28)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

While two of the league’s best are missing in action for their respective teams, many elite matchups are on the NBA schedule tonight. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies (-8.5)

Los Angeles Lakers (+8.5)

With LeBron James set to miss the next few weeks of the season, the Lakers will need all the help they can get from their newcomers. However, they will also have to do so without D’Angelo Russell tonight, who is doubtful to play because of an ankle injury. Dennis Schroder will start in the event that Russell is ruled out, while Malik Beasley and Jared Vanderbilt will have more offensive opportunity. Rui Hachimura will consequently dominate usage off the bench, but nothing is possible without Anthony Davis leading the charge. With LeBron off the court, Davis has posted a remarkable 1.49 fantasy points per minute through a 30.3% usage rate. With Steven Adams still missing from the Grizzlies lineup, Davis will dominate the paint on both ends of the court tonight.

Memphis Grizzlies (-8.5)

Despite two mediocre performances following the NBA All-Star break, this is a terrific spot for Ja Morant. On the season, Morant leads the team with a 35% usage rate, averaging 27/5.9/8.1 on 46.3% shooting. Moreover, the Lakers currently rank 28th versus primary ball handlers, struggling mightily with their on-ball defense. Should Morant alter lineup construction too much, Desmond Bane makes for a viable pivot in tournaments.

Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+2.5)

Sacramento Kings (-2.5)

With the Thunder ranking 3rd in the NBA in pace, this is an elite game environment. Moreover, the Kings currently have the best offensive rating the league has ever seen. While this is tough to compare to prior teams considering the way the game has changed over the years, it’s an impressive feat nonetheless. Tonight, Domantas Sabonis gets the best matchup of the Kings offense. The Thunder not only rank 24th versus crafty centers, but also sit 26th in rebounding percentage. Sabonis not only leads the league in total rebounds, but in rebounds per game as well.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+2.5)

In the absence of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, all eyes will be on Josh Giddey. Likely to be one of the most popular players in the mid range of the pricing grid on this NBA slate, Giddey has a terrific combination of ceiling and floor. With his fellow backcourt teammate off the floor, Giddey sees his usage rate increase from 24.5% to 25.6%, while his fantasy points per minute actually decrease from 1.24 to 1.10. Lu Dort and Isaiah Joe make for viable plays as well, but having no exposure to this Thunder offense is a fine approach as well.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors (-4.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (+4.5)

Arguably the best scorer in the NBA this season, Damian Lillard has simply been unreal. Not only is he fresh off a 71-point performance, but he has scored 30 or more points in 11 of his last 13 appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 40.7/5.2/7.1 on 53% shooting during that span, taking nearly 13 shots from behind the arc per night and hitting at a 43.8% clip. It’s a lofty commitment to make on the pricing grid, but with the Warriors ranked 26th versus primary ball handlers, it’s never too late to jump on the Dame Time train.

Golden State Warriors (-4.5)

While Portland defends the three-ball at a decent rate, Klay Thompson has been lights out lately. Not only has he dropped 32 and 42 points, respectively, in his last two games, but he has made 18 three-pointers across those appearances. Moreover, Jordan Poole will continue to lead this offense and be overlooked on a large NBA slate considering he has struggled coming out of the All-Star break. Should Draymond Green suit up for this one, he makes for an interesting play in tournaments versus a depleted Portland frontcourt, while Kevon Looney is the preferable target between the two.

Honorable Mentions:

Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets (+10.5)
Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks (-6.5)
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz (-9.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/18/2023

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Many NBA stars have been battling injuries lately. Tonight is no different, but there are plenty of elite game environments to be excited about. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5)

Indiana Pacers (+4.5)

Since losing Tyrese Haliburton to a knee injury, the Pacers have lost three straight. However, without their best player, comes many opportunities for others. During those three games, TJ McConnell continues to be one of the most popular players on any given NBA slate. He has averaged 18.3/6.7/9 on 63.9% shooting. There is also intrigue in Myles Turner, who figures to be a core player on this slate. In his return to the lineup a few days ago, Turner saw many more minutes and came through with 30/8/2 and four blocks, making five three-pointers along the way. With Oklahoma City ranked 27th in the league versus true centers and struggling to find a replacement in the absences of Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Aleksej Pokusevski, Turner is set to dominate the paint on both ends of the court tonight.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5)

This game has tremendous stack ability and is one of the best on the NBA slate. On the Thunder’s side of the ball, it begins with their backcourt duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. Over their last six games, OKC is 5-1. During that span, SGA has averaged 29.2/5.3/4.3 on 54.3% shooting. However, Giddey has been phenomenal in his own right. Giddey has averaged 20.2/8.2/7.8 on 51.5% shooting. With the Pacers perimeter defense taking a serious hit in the absence of Haliburton, both SGA and Giddey are in a great spot.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5)

Cleveland Cavaliers (+6.5)

Donovan Mitchell did not practice yesterday and has since been downgraded to doubtful tonight. Thus, the offense will fall on Darius Garland, should Mitchell in fact miss this game. While the former has taken a back seat to the newly acquired Mitchell, Garland is a polarizing talent on offense. On the season, Garland has posted 1.08 fantasy points per minute through a 27% usage rate, averaging 21.4/2.8/7.8. While both his usage rate and fantasy output is lower than Mitchell’s, Garland excels with his teammate off the floor. Garland sees an increase to 1.22 fantasy points per minute through a 30% usage rate without Mitchell. Thus, he is one of the best plays in the mid range of this pricing grid on this NBA slate.

Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5)

Memphis boasts a complete roster on both sides of the court. They have a star player in Ja Morant, a defensive force in Jaren Jackson Jr., and solid role players in Desmond Bane, Steven Adams, Dillion Brooks, and others. However, this can make things complicated in fantasy hoops. Morant will lead the charge without a doubt, but Cleveland has the #2 defense in the NBA. Thus, a matchup play in this one is Steven Adams. While he certainly will have few shot attempts, he will be needed to log heavy minutes versus Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Moreover, with Jaren Jackson Jr. still battling foul trouble, Adams has tremendous potential for a double-double in this one in nearly 30+ minutes of play.

Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers (OTB)

Sacramento Kings (OTB)

The Kings have been a pleasant surprise this season. After years of mediocrity and struggling to find their groove, they are now leading a division that has Golden State, Phoenix, and both Los Angeles teams in it. Thanks to their All-Star duo of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento fans should be excited for the near future. Most notably, the latter came into town with lofty expectations after being acquired for Tyrese Haliburton. However, Sabonis has truly dominated this season. He leads the NBA in both total rebounds and rebounds per game, while averaging 18.9/12.6/7.1 on 61% shooting. The Lakers rank 29th in the league versus playmaking centers, making this a tremendous matchup for Sabonis.

Los Angeles Lakers (OTB)

There is little to like about this offense other than LeBron James. However, in doing so, NBA lineup construction becomes increasingly difficult. Thus, fear not in fading the Lakers tonight. However, both LeBron and Sabonis make for an excellent 1-2 punch in the last game of the slate. James has 24 or more points in each of his last seven games, including three 40-point outings. Moreover, he has averaged 37/9.7/8.6 during that span through a whopping 36.4% usage rate.

Honorable Mentions:

Atlanta Hawks @ Dallas Mavericks (OTB)
Miami Heat @ New Orleans Pelicans (+1.5)
Charlotte Hornets @ Houston Rockets (+2.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/06

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are a ton of good matchups on the NBA schedule tonight. Unfortunately for fans, many stars of the game have already been ruled out. However, this makes this slate interesting for fantasy purposes. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5)

Brooklyn Nets (-4.5)

No NBA team is on a better run than the Nets. Before losing to the Bulls the other night, Brooklyn had strung together 12 wins in a row and are now 12-1 in their last 13 games. During that stretch, the duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have been phenomenal. The two lead the team in usage rate at 32.1% and 30.9%, respectively. Moreover, they have combined for 59 points per game. With Zion Williamson out for the Pelicans, Kevin Durant has a tremendous matchup versus the Pelicans’ wings. However, Kyrie Irving has scored 20 or more points in 11 of the team’s last 13 games, averaging 28.9/6.1/5.1 on 52.9% shooting. The two will combine for a ton of shots tonight, and either one makes for a great play.

New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5)

In the absence of both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans duo of CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas will be two of the most rostered players on the NBA slate. However, expectations need to be tempered. The Nets are no longer a team that can be easily beat in their own half of the court. Over the last ten games, they have the third-best defensive rating in the league. Moreover, they are now a top-10 defense in the NBA. Despite the interior presences of Nic Claxton and Ben Simmons, Valanciunas has the higher upside between he and his teammate. Over his last six games, Valanciunas has four double-doubles and has averaged 12.7/11.2/1.8 on 44.9% shooting.

Washington Wizards @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

Washington Wizards (+1.5)

This game will be overlooked on a large NBA slate and it really should not be. Not only is it one of the best game environments, but a key injury to Bradley Beal opens up this Washington rotation. The Thunder currently rank 26th in the NBA against true centers, and we want to exploit their interior defense. On the season, Kristaps Porzingis has a 27.5% usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute. However, with Beal off the court, these increase to a 29.8% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute. If you are reluctant to commit to KP at the top of the pricing grid, Daniel Gafford makes for an intriguing tournament play, as does Rui Hachimura, only if Gafford (elbow) misses this game.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

By now, everyone should know just how good Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been playing this season. He is far and away the top talent and fantasy player on a rebuilding Thunder team. However, similarly to Porzingis, there are other options if the salary is worrisome. In the absence of two frontcourt players, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Aleksej Pokusevski, the field has been searching for a replacement big man. However, it has been Josh Giddey that has reaped the benefits. Not only is he the leading rebounder on the team, but he has seen an increase in both scoring and usage rate. Over his last four games, Giddey has three 20-point efforts. Moreover, he has averaged 20.5/7.3/3.5 on 53.2% shooting, seeing a notable increase in shot attempts over his season average.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves (OTB)

Los Angeles Clippers (OTB)

I wanted to touch on this game because the Clippers are on the second half of a back-to-back. At the time of writing, Paul George is questionable for their game against the Nuggets. Moreover, Kawhi Leonard is a rest candidate on the second half of a back-to-back, as is John Wall, Nic Batum, and Marcus Morris. If the dominos fall with a lengthly injury report, this will be the spot for the majority of the value on a large NBA slate. Look for updates in Discord.

Minnesota Timberwolves (OTB)

There is no greater disappointment in the NBA than the Timberwolves. Despite the acquisition of Rudy Gobert in the offseason, Minnesota is actually performing worse on both ends of the court this season. However, with Karl-Anthony Towns still nursing a calf injury, there are many touches to go around on offense. Anthony Edwards will continue to lead the charge, however the Clippers boast two of the best defenders in the league in Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Should both end up sitting, Edwards carries much more upside. Elsewhere, Rudy Gobert has been the primary cause for concern over this roster. However, with a friendly matchup against a Clippers defense that ranks 22nd against centers and 18th in points allowed in the paint, he makes for an intriguing pivot to a popular Jonas Valanciunas.

Honorable Mentions:

Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5)
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors (-3.5)
Atlanta Hawks @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/04

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Despite there being plenty of games on the NBA schedule tonight, a few spots stand above the rest. Many teams are dealing with a multitude of injuries to begin the new year, while one of the opening games features two of the slimmest rotations of the slate. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic (-2.5)

Oklahoma City Thunder (+2.5)

On the second half of a back-to-back, the Thunder will be an interesting rotation tonight. Last night saw a surprising blowout victory versus Boston, despite missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. On tonight’s NBA slate, both of these teams will be popular should the Thunder star miss a second straight contest. In his absence, look for a backcourt of Josh Giddey and Tre Mann to shoulder the load on offense, while both Lu Dort and Jalen Williams get a friendly matchup versus a Magic defense that ranks 25th in the NBA versus wings. If SGA makes his return, look for updates in Discord.

Orlando Magic (-2.5)

The Magic will be awfully thin tonight. They have the second bulk of players serving their suspensions from a previous incident versus the Pistons, while others have been added to the injury report. Franz Wagner, Mo Wagner, Kevon Harris, and Admiral Schofield will all be serving their one-game suspensions tonight. Moreover, Bol Bol was recently placed in health and safety protocols, while Jalen Suggs figures to be on a strict minutes limit after missing the previous 17 games. Barring a minutes restriction, this is a phenomenal matchup for Wendell Carter Jr., who faces a Thunder interior defense that ranks 29th in the NBA versus small-ball centers and ranks 25th in points allowed in the paint per game. If Carter Jr. remains limited and Bol Bol is ultimately ruled out, Mo Bamba is a must-play.

Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans (-7.5)

Houston Rockets (+7.5)

In one of the best game environments of the NBA slate, exposure to both sides of this game is imperative. With key injuries to the Pelicans’ frontcourt, Alperen Sengun will be needed to match the size of Jonas Valanciunas, Jaxson Hayes, and Guillermo Hernangomez. Sporting a 22.3% usage rate on the season, Sengun leads the Rockets with a 1.18 fantasy points per minute. Moreover, Jalen Green has immense upside in a high-scoring affair. Over his seven games, Green has scored 20 or more points in six appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 22.1/5.4/3 on 43.5% shooting during that stretch while attempting eight three-pointers per contest.

New Orleans Pelicans (-7.5)

The Pelicans will be severely shorthanded tonight. Not only is Brandon Ingram still recovering from a toe injury, but Zion Williamson now joins him on the sidelines with a hamstring injury. Thus, CJ McCollum will be tasked with shouldering the offense. On the season, McCollum currently sports a 26.1% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute. However, with both Ingram and Williamson off the court, McCollum sees drastic increases to a 31.5% usage rate and a team-leading 1.24 fantasy points per minute. Moreover, Houston currently ranks last in the NBA versus primary ball handlers. Look for McCollum to score with ease and see a notable uptick in assist opportunity with Valanciunas, Hayes, and Hernangomez being the benefactors in the pick-and-roll.

Atlanta Hawks @ Sacramento Kings (-1.5)

Atlanta Hawks (+1.5)

In the best game environment of the NBA slate, there is plenty of intrigue across the pricing grid. Trae Young offers the most upside in this matchup, leading the team with a 33.5% usage rate. However, both Dejounte Murray and Bogdan Bogdanovic are enticing as well. With a troubling frontcourt of Onyeka Okongwu and John Collins facing Domantas Sabonis in the paint, the Hawks will look to roll out a smaller lineup and push the pace. In 14 games this season, Bogdanovic has come off the bench in 11 appearances. Moreover, he is one of the league’s best off the bench, averaging 17.4/3.2/2.5 in over 30 minutes per contest. Meanwhile, Dejounte Murray will be tasked with guarding De’Aaron Fox on the other side of the ball and logging heavy minutes in a fast matchup versus a Kings team that ranks fourth in the league in pace.

Sacramento Kings (-1.5)

While the duo of Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox is at the forefront of a fantasy goldmine, there is another spot to target as well. Facing his former team, Kevin Huerter will get plenty of shooting opportunities tonight. As a result of Murray guarding Fox, Huerter gets a phenomenal matchup versus a poor defender in Trae Young. Atlanta ranks 26th in the NBA versus off-ball guards and have struggled mightily to shift to the corners. With Domantas Sabonis’ elite playmaking on the inside, he has triple-double upside in this matchup, but he won’t get there without Huerter being the benefactor of open three-point attempts.

Honorable Mentions:

San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks (-9.5)
Detroit Pistons @ Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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