NHL Betting Picks

After several weeks of small Saturday night slates, the NHL scheduling gods have blessed us with an 8 game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.  My goal today will be to walk you through a lineup build that will get you to the top of the leaderboards.  

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.   

Goaltending

Jake Oettinger ($7.5K DK/$7.7k FD) vs. New York Rangers – I don’t often proactively use goalies against my New York Rangers, but I’m going to make an exception tonight.  Oettinger tonight is in a price point where he’s really hard to pass up.  While not flashy, he’s been extremely reliable as he’s had at least 10 DK points or more in 11 of his last 13 games.  He’s even had some games over 25 points. 

The Rangers have really struggled to put the goal in the net over the last month, averaging just 2.45 goals per game over that stretch.  With them on the road again tonight, look for them to continue to struggle scoring goals.  Oettinger isn’t a sexy pick by any means, but he’s not going to kill you tonight.    

Cal Petersen ($8.1k DK/$7.6k FD) vs. San Jose Sharks – The Kings should turn the goalie crease over to Cal Petersen tonight after Quick somehow let up 4 goals vs. a Sharks team that’s scoring just 2 goals per game over the past month.  I wish Petersen was under the $8k range tonight on DK (love the price on FD) as I’m not sure I can stomach paying that much for him.  That said, the match up is great.  And if we look at recent stats, he provides more upside than Oettinger as he’s had over 20 DK points in back to back games.

Outside of those 2 goalies, I have little interest in anyone else.  While both guys present some risk, they should both have a decent floor and won’t break the bank. 

Stacks 

Calgary 1 (Lindholm, Gaudreau, Tkachuk) vs. Detroit

If you’ve been following the NHL recently, you know that Detroit is playing some really poor defensive hockey.  Over the last month, they have a goals against average of 5.20.  The only thing I can compare that to in sports is the Rockies playing every game in Coors over a 30 day stretch and having Kyle Freeland on the mound for all.  It’s bad.  Carolina is probably licking their chops after giving up on Nedeljkovic as he’s been extremely disappointing this season. 

Over his last 2 games, he’s given up 12 goals.  That’s bad.  I want to preface this with saying that both top lines for Calgary are in play tonight.  My lean right now is line 1, even though they are pricey.  Lindholm and Gaudreau are both killing it of late, with a combined 11 goals and 18 points over their last 5.  They’ve also combined for 41 scoring chances.  Both guys are core plays for me tonight.  You can add Tkachuk to this stack too if you want, I just don’t think he’s going to be necessary. 

New Jersey 1 (Hughes, Sharangovich, Mercer) vs. Anaheim

While not as bad as Detroit over the last month in terms of GAA, the Ducks are pretty close as they’re giving up more than 4.5 goals per game since mid-February.  After starting out the season strongly, Gibson has crashed hard back down to earth.  For most of the year, he outperformed against his advanced metrics.  The Gibson we are seeing now, is the real Gibson.  Over the last month, he hasn’t had a single game with less than 3 goals.  As their everyday goalie, that’s a lot of games with 3 or more goals against. 

Jersey’s offense starts with Hughes.  The third-year center already has a career high 18 goals and 26 assists.  This is by far his best season at the NHL level and he’s still fairly priced at just $6.7k on DK.  I’m pairing him with Sharangovich tonight as the 2 of them have really clicked and Sharangovich is just $3.8k.  Over their last 5 games, the 2 have combined for 44 scoring chances.  Look for the 2 of them to have a big night against a bad team. 

Montreal 2 (Dauphin, Hoffman, Gallagher) vs. Seattle

I don’t need to sell you too much on playing guys against Seattle.  They’ve struggled mightily in their inaugural season.  We attack them when we can.  Tonight, we can.  Montreal 1 is absolutely in play tonight.  Caufield and Suzuki are playing great hockey right now as they’ve combined for 12 points over their last 5 games.  We just need some savings tonight in a productive environment and Montreal 2 is going to give us that. 

I’m looking to Brendan Gallagher tonight for some positive regression.  Over his last 5 contests he has 15 high danger chances and just 1 goal to show for it.  His xGF over that stretch is 3.23.  He should be finding the back of the net and there’s a very good chance tonight he does.  The combination of Hoffman and Gallagher will cost us just $8.5k on DK tonight and after spending a ton of money on Calgary and Jersey, we need the extra money.  There is also a path to getting both Suzuki and Caufield in your squads tonight by going cheap on both D and I may end up doing that too in a lineup.  

Other stacks (TB 1 and 2, Edm 1 and 2, Bos 1, Ari, Chi 1)

Top Defenseman

• Ryan McDonagh – $4.1k on DK – 16 blocked shots and 12 shots on goal over last 5.
• Jakob Chychrun – 5 goals over his last 5 to go with 21 shots
• Sean Durzi – 23 shots and 13 blocks over his last 5, still somewhat of a value
• Dyson Mayo – $3.1k on DK.  4 points over his last 5 plus 10 blocked shots
• Nick Holden – $3k on DK.  Averaging close to 4 shots + blocks per game over last 5
• Jacob Middleton – $2.9k on DK.  Dude is a blocked shot machine with 12 over his last 3 games.

Vegas

Love the Canadiens at -110 tonight as favorites against Seattle.  They’re on home ice and are playing “better.” 

Summary

Tonight’s looking like a fun slate.  We have several teams that should put up big numbers with Calgary, Jersey, and even Montreal.  I didn’t write up them because I expect them to be popular, but Tampa Bay is also in a great spot to smash tonight vs. an Oilers team that has been challenged defensively this season. 

Don’t forget to use our optimizer when setting lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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