NFL

Week 10 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We did it again last MNF as our “Presidente” took down a showdown. Showing the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Dolphins and Rams. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Running Back

The Rams rush defense is towards the bottom half of the league in most metrics. According to DVOA they have the 22nd best rush defense. As for the results on the field, the Rams allow 135.1 yards/game on the ground which is 8th most. They allow the 14th most points to RB’s mainly due to the fact they’ve allowed 6 rushing TD’s.

The Dolphins backfield is always blurry due to the several mouths to feed. But De’Von Achane always rules the roost due to his explosive playmaking ability. Achane is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has 37 receptions in 7 games. Good news is, the coaching staff is adjusting and getting the ball in his hands more. In Week 8, he had 58% of the snaps compared to 46% for Raheem Mostert. In week 9, Achane saw 69% of the snaps compared to 23% for Mostert. Some of that had to do with the game situation, but in all Achane is the clear #1 and deserves consideration for MVP and CPT tonight.

Rookie RB Jaylen Wright saw 6 carries last week. But the only way I see him paying off is if there is an injury to one of the top 2 ball carriers.

Tier 1: De’Von Achane

Tier 2: Raheem Mostert

Value: Jaylen Wright

Wide Receiver

The passing game is where you want to attack the Rams. While they have pedestrian stats against the run, their pass D is one of the worst in the league. Los Angeles allows the 6th most fantasy points to WR’s. They also allow 225 passing yards per game which is 8th worst in the league. According to DVOA, they have the 23rd best pass defense. Looking at their DB’s, PFF ranks DB Darious Williams as the 37th best cornerback and their other starting CB is Cobie Durant who is ranked 77th.

And who can forget some of the big games WR’s have had this year already against the Rams. Four receivers have posted 100-yard games, including last week’s 7 catch, 180-yard output by Jaxon Smith Ngigba.

If Hill bears through the pain and winds up playing, he has the best chance to be the 5th WR with a huge game against the Rams. Waddle is always WR2 and performs better with Tua at QB so he’s in play as a Flex spot. Beckham is a nice punt play as he’s going up against his former team which gives him some motivation to play well.

Tier 1: Tyreek Hill

Tier 2: Jaylen Waddle

Punts: Odell Beckham Jr

Tight End

As with the WR’s, the Rams struggle against TE’s too. They allow the 6th most fantasy points to this position. This includes monster games by Brock Bowers and Tucker Kraft.

Jonnu Smith is playing like WR2 for Miami as he’s 3rd on the team in receptions trailing just Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane. His only issue is he’s found the endzone just once this season. If Hill is healthy, it will be tough for Smith to break the slate. But remember, it’s a showdown so all we need him to do is pop for more than other WR’s in the game. And that’s something that is highly possible based on the Rams coverage schemes.

Tier 1: Jonnu Smith

Tier 2: Durham Smythe

Punt/Fadeable:

LA RAMS

Running Back

It’s beautiful when you get a team and coach that believes in the workhorse running back. And that’s exactly what we have in LA with HC Sean McVay and his star RB Kyren Williams. Last week alone, Williams saw 99% of the snaps. That included 97% of the RB touches. This is clearly Williams backfield and that makes him my top player on the board tonight.

The other thing to consider is that Miami has struggled against the run this year. They are ranked 27th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed 120 yards/game on the ground. The Dolphins have also allowed the 9th most points to RB’s this season as they’ve allowed 10 rushing TD’s to RB’s, tied for 2nd most in the NFL.

Tier 1: Kyren Williams

Tier 2: Don’t waste your time

Wide Receiver

The Rams wide receiver room is finally healthy, and that’s probably the biggest reason for their recent good play as LA has won three straight. The problem is, it’s hard to predict who will be the big game beneficiary as the offense takes what the defense gives them. The other issue is that the Miami DB’s, Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller, for one of the defensive duos in the league. PFF ranks Ramsey as the 2nd best CB this season and Fuller as the 23rd. Combined, along with their other DB’s, the Dolphins have allowed the 4th least points to WR’s. But DVOA isn’t as high on them as they rank the Dolphins 27th in pass defense. So there may be room to attack a formidable part of this team.

I rank Puka as the WR with the highest ceiling based on his ability to get downfield. He’s a threat to break a play from any spot on the field. Kupp is more of the possession type that they’ll move around the formation and create matchups to get him 8-10 targets (or more). Demarcus Robinson had a huge game last week but that was predicated on Puka getting kicked out in the 1st quarter.

Tier 1: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp

Tier 2: Demarcus Robinson

Cheap Options: Tutu Atwell

Tight End

This was supposed to be a breakout year for Rams TE Colby Parkinson. But he has not broken out. So far this season, he has just one game with more than 50 yards. And he’s been shutout of the endzone. The Dolphins are good against TE’s, allowing the 10th fewest points to that position. I’m fading Parkinson in most of my lineups as the Rams have too many options and the Dolphins are vulnerable against the run so I foresee Parkinson more involved in the blocking game tonight.

Tier 1: Colby Parkinson

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Kyren Williams or De’Von Achane. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they both have great receiving corps. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Kyren Williams but I also like Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, and De’Von Achane.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane

FDMVP Tier 2: Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua

FDMVP Tier 3: Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Tua Tagovailoa

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill

DK CPT Tier 2: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp

DK CPT Tier 3: Matt Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa

DK CPT Punt: Jonnu Smith

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Kyren Williams
• Puka Nacua
• Tyreek Hill
• Cooper Kupp
• De’Von Achane
• Matt Stafford
• Tua Tagovailoa

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Jaylen Waddle
• Jonnu Smith
• Demarcus Robinson
• Raheem Mostert
• Jason Sanders
• Joshua Karty
• Odell Beckham Jr

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

• Tutu Atwell
• Colby Parkinson
• Dolphins D
• Rams D
• Jaylen Wright

Best Rules for the slate:

• The story of this slate is that we have many stars to choose from and they all see a high volume. There is not a lot of players that fall in the value bucket so you’ll need to choose your stars wisely.
• We are projecting 25+ touches for Kyren Williams. Highest priced player for a reason but make sure you get him in all lineups.
• De’Von Achane saw his highest snap count last week. Dolphins are desperate for a win and need to get their playmaker the ball. Consider him the Dolphins top offensive player tonight.
• I have a feeling this could be a Tyreek Hill game. We’ve seen a receiver put up huge numbers from almost every team the Rams have faced. Remember Jauan Jennings and his 3 TD game?
• I like Puka Nacua the most out of the Rams WR’s. He always carries an injury risk but he’s the big play maker in LA’s receiving room.
• Both QB’s are in play. Neither will rack up big yards on the ground. But the potential for 2+ passing TD’s is real with both signal callers. I would not play both in the same lineup because you need to get the other high-priced players involved. But if you’re going 4/2 or 5/1 with a lineup then definitely consider a QB.
• If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
• I’m not playing either defense as they both rank in the bottom 1/3rd of the league in points allowed and yards allowed.
• I like Odell Beckham as my cheap option tonight. He’s made for the bright lights of LA.
• Jonnu Smith or Jaylen Waddle will have a good game. There are not enough balls to go around for both to put up points. So keep them apart in your lineups.

Favorite prop for the game: Tyreek Hill longest reception over 26.5 yards (-110)

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We had our first big week of the NFL season last week going 3-1-1 in our posted game bets and hitting on 3 of 4 prop bets in Discord (including a +180 ATD bet). Then we started off this week with another winner as we cashed the Bengals at +6.5 on Thursday Night Football. So things are trending upwards as we look to get back, or over, the 0.500 mark this week. It’s taken a while, but staying consistent and fading the public has started to put money in our pockets.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on our pick last week with the Lions.

NFL BETS WEEK 10 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 18-20-1)

NEW YORK GIANTS -6 at CAROLINA PANTHERS (930am EST)

Reminder, this is a European game, so you have to get your bets in early for this one. The Giants and Panthers are in Munich for the final game of the season being played overseas. Both teams are 2-7 and each showed some fight last week, including a win by the Panthers over the Saints. To think this is almost a touchdown spread seems wild, considering how bad the Giants have been this year. But the troubles have mainly been at home, where New York is 0-5 with a point differential of -67. On the road, they are 2-2 with a point differential of +4. And this week, they are as far from home as possible.

On the other hand, the Panthers pulled off a big win behind QB Bryce Young as they beat the Saints 23-22. Considering they lost 47-10 to the Saints in Week 1, this was a massive turnaround and one that could provide momentum for the second half of the season. But I’m not buying it. Despite the win, Carolina is still the worst team in football with a -146 point differential. When they lose, they lose big. Each of their 7 losses in by double digits. So, if you think the Giants will win, chances are it will be by a wide margin.

Also consider the betting market is showing significant smart money on the Giants. The public is pouring in 67% of the bets on Carolina but just 28% of the money.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -6.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Tampa gave everything they had on MNF against Kansas City despite being completely shorthanded on offense and defense. Yet, the Chiefs snuck out another one score victory with an OT win against the Bucs.

Now Tampa has a short week to prepare for San Fran who is coming off a bye. And news coming out of the bay is that star RB Christian McCaffrey will be activated for the game tomorrow.

This just looks like a tough spot for a Bucs team that struggles to stop the pass and is playing on fumes against a fully rested opponent in the 49ers.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +4 vs BUFFALO BILLS

The Colts couldn’t have looked much worse last week in their primetime matchup on SNF versus the Vikings. Indianapolis managed just 6 offensive points and 227 total yards on way to a defeat in Minnesota. It’s left many to question whether benching QB Anthony Richardson was the right move. But HC Shane Steichen has stuck to his guns and once again handed the QB reigns to Joe Flacco. The Bills, on the other hand, pulled out an impressive win over the Dolphins despite being outgained by 50 yards and losing the time of possession battle.

The Bills win last week gave them a 4.5 game lead in the AFC East. At this point, the division is pretty much wrapped up as the Jets are in 2nd place at 3-6 overall. The Colts are sitting at 4-5 and playing a must win game. I’ll take the hungrier team in this matchup to pull off the outright win and keep their season alive. Add to that, the Bills have their arch-nemesis on the schedule next week in the Kansas City Chiefs. Looks like a classic trap game and look ahead spot.

HOUSTON TEXANS +3.5 vs DETROIT LIONS

The Lions are coming off another dominant performance. This time against their most hated rivals in the Green Bay Packers. Detroit is now 7-1 and look like the class of the NFL. This week they take their 6 game winning streak to Houston to face off against the 6-3 Texans. Houston is took a loss to the Jets on TNF in Week 9 despite outgaining the Jets by 30 yards. The main reason for the loss was the redzone, as they converted just 1 of 4 opportunities from inside the 20.

The books are taking big money on Detroit this week with 83% of the bets and 73% of the money on the Lions. Yet the opening line has moved from Detroit -4 to Detroit -3.5. Houston may have the services of WR Nico Collins this week which would be a boost to their offense. But they have enough on the defensive side to keep this game close as they rank 2nd in overall defense. I’ll fade the public here and take the Texans who will surely be motivated as a home dog in primetime.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

LA CHARGERS

The Chargers defense is solid and will keep Tennessee under 20 points. QB Justin Herbert is having a great season with 10 TD’s to only 1 INT. The recipe for success in LA is to play tough defense, run the ball and win the turnover battle. They’ll do all three tomorrow en route to their 6th win this season.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Week 9 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We’ve already taken down a few showdowns this year as a team at WinDaily, and I feel like we’re due for another. So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Bucs and Chiefs. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

UPDATE (7pm EST): THE ARTICLE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT WR JALEN MCMILLAN BEING RULED OUT, WR STERLING SHEPARD AND RB BUCKY IRVING AS ACTIVE.

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

TAMPA BAY BUCS

Running Back

The Chiefs are 2nd in total defense DVOA. And that’s propelled by the #2 DVOA rushing defense. They allow just 82.3 rushing yards per game which is 3rd best in the league. Even more important, they allow the least fantasy points to RB’s.

So this is a tough spot for any team, but especially the Bucs who have struggled in recent years to establish a ground game. However, this year has been much better as they average 131.3 yards/game rushing ranking them 10th best in the NFL. And PFF ranks their running game as 8th best and their run blocking as the 10th best unit in the league. Based on all the injuries they have in the receiver room, we do have to think Tampa will try their best to establish a ground game tonight.

The Bucs have a good group of RB’s to choose from. It’s hard to feed all so they typically are heavy on the top two available RB’s on a given night. Last week, Rachaad White saw 56% of the snaps and Irving saw 42% while Tucker saw just 10%. This was similar in Week 7 as well, when the group saw a 48/35/20 split. White doesn’t carry an injury tag so he’s the clear top choice. Keep an eye on Irving, as he has a toe injury he’s dealing with, but he was able to suit up last week and they anticipate he will again. If he’s out, Tucker would shoot up my lists as his price is the best of the group.

Tier 1: Rachaad White, Bucky Irving

Tier 2:

Value: Sean Tucker

Wide Receiver

This is one of the toughest spots to project based on the injuries to Tampa’s WR’s and the youth of the ones playing tonight. Sterling Shepard is the veteran of the group, but he is dealing with a hamstring injury and is questionable tonight. Jalen McMillan is the rookie 3rd round pick from Washington. And filled in the #1 role last week accounting for 4 catches and 35 yards on 7 targets. But he tweaked a hamstring on Saturday and is questionable for tonight. Leaving us with Tre Palmer who is a 2nd year player from Nebraska. Palmer reeled in just 2 catches last week for 29 yards.

There are two dark horses too, in Ryan Miller (41% snaps last week) and Rakim Jarrett (2nd on team with 58 yards last week). We do know Tampa will likely pass a lot, as Baker averages 35.5 pass attempts per game. The tricky part is to find out where those targets will go.

Health will determine my favorite target here, but as of this writing I lean Jalen McMillan as I’m optimistic his injury was minor. From there, I’ll get Palmer involved but also look at Jarrett and Miller as low owned “high-risk” options. I tend to avoid Shepard in most of my lineups as his injury seems more severe and he hasn’t taken over a high role, which he should have based on his experience.

UPDATE: I’ve now moved Sterling Shepard up higher due to McMillan’s injury. At this point, I actually like Rakim Jarrett the most of all Tampa WR’s based on his upside and price.

Tier 1: Jalen McMillan, Tre Palmer, Sterling Shepard

Tier 2: Rakim Jarrett

Punts: Ryan Miller

Tight End

Not much analysis needed here. Cade Otton should be considered for most if not all your lineups tonight. KC’s weakness on defense is covering TE’s. They’ve allowed the most receiving yards to TE’s (566) and the 2nd most fantasy points. Cade Otton has seen 10 targets in each of the past two games. He is Baker’s favorite receiver right now and they’ll find ways to get him the ball. Let’s just hope he doesn’t hang him out to dry and get him injured as I’ve seen him do in the past few weeks.

Tier 1: Cade Otton

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Running Back

It’s crazy to think Kareem Hunt has become RB1 for the Chiefs. A prior standout in KC, he all but lost his job in the NFL all to be picked up off the shelf and reused due to injuries in the backfield. In the last two weeks, he’s seen 64% and 58% of the snaps. But he’s seen 82% and 84% of the touches in those weeks. He’s the guy, no questions asked.

Tampa has been very bad against the pass, especially of late. And that has likely inflated their rushing stats as they rank the 10th best rushing defense according to DVOA. But they allow the 13th most rushing yards per game at 131.6. And more importantly, they allow the highest yards per carry at 5.2. This is a sneaky good spot for a CPT tonight because people will be looking at the poor pass defense on Tampa.

Tier 1: Kareem Hunt

Tier 2: Samaje Perine

Wide Receiver

The Chiefs will need to get their passing game going if they want to win a 3rd straight Super Bowl. They are 11th overall in the NFL with 225.9 yards/game passing. Going back to 2019, they’ve been ranked:

• 2019: 281.1/game (5th)
• 2020: 303.4/game (1st)
• 2021: 281.8/game (4th)
• 2022: 297.8/game (1st)
• 2023: 246.4/game (6th)

So this is a trend that is working backwards for KC. And by losing Rashee Rice they have a big hole in the explosive plays department. Which means Xavier Worthy, and newly acquired D’Andre Hopkins must step up. And they should be able to tonight against a pass defense that is ranked 17th in pass defense DVOA. More importantly they allow the 4th most yards at 248.9/game. And in the last 2 weeks they’ve allowed Lamar Jackson and Kirk Cousins to throw for 9 TD’s and 0 INT’s.

My favorite of the group is Worthy and he’s (almost) always good for rushing yards as well as his typical 4-6 catches. Justin Watson saw 76% of the snaps last week and had a season high 3 catches so he’s worth a chance as a low-owned WR in some lineups. They tend to give him 1-2 shots downfield per game.

Tier 1: Xavier Worthy

Tier 2: D’Andre Hopkins

Cheap Options: Justin Watson

Tight End

Travis Kelce got back to Travis Kelce things last week. And shouldn’t that have been expected as he simply owns the Raiders? Tampa is bad against TE’s too, allowing the 6th most fantasy points to that position. Combine that with Jason Kelce’s antics this weekend and the bright lights of MNF and we have a great spot for one of the games best showmen.

Chiefs are deploying more 2 TE sets and Noah Gray has 7 catches in the past two games. So he’s worth a longshot look too.

Tier 1: Travis Kelce

Tier 2: Noah Gray

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Kareem Hunt or Travis Kelce. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they can make plays with their legs. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Cade Otton but I also like Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy and Rachaad White.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce

FDMVP Tier 2: Cade Otton, Xavier Worthy, Patrick Mahomes

FDMVP Tier 3: Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Cade Otton, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt

DK CPT Tier 2: Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy

DK CPT Tier 3: Rachaad White, D’Andre Hopkins, Baker Mayfield

DK CPT Punt: Jalen McMillan, Bucky Irving, Sterling Shepard

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Cade Otton
• Kareem Hunt
• Travis Kelce
• Patrick Mahomes
• Xavier Worthy
• Baker Mayfield
• Rachaad White
• Bucky Irving
• Jalen McMillan

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Bucky Irving (questionable)
• Tre Palmer
• Rakim Jarrett
• D’Andre Hopkins
• Justin Watson
• Chiefs D
• Noah Gray
• Harrison Butker
• Chase McLaughlin

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

• Ryan Miller
• Sean Tucker
• Rakim Jarrett

Best Rules for the slate:

• The TE’s rule tonight. KC allows the 2nd most fantasy points to TE’s and Tampa allows the 6th most.
• Kareem Hunt has seen 22 touches and 27 touches in the past 2 weeks alone. I could see another heavy workload tonight against a Bucs D that allows the highest yards per carry in the NFL.
• There has been rain in KC today but it looks to be clearing out by game time. I don’t think weather will be a factor.
• I like Xavier Worthy the most out of all WR’s tonight. He’s TD possibility from anywhere on the field.
• D’Andre Hopkins is getting slowly worked into the offense. I see him with TD equity tonight, as he’s a target in the redzone. But I don’t think he’ll have a high volume game as he still needs time to build a relationship with Mahomes.
• Speaking of Chiefs WR’s, I like Justin Watson a lot tonight. The Bucs have been vulnerable against the pass and Watson is always due for 1-2 deep shots.
• As for Tampa WR’s, Jalen McMillan is a 3rd round pick out of Washington. You might have heard, but they made the College Football Championship last year with an elite passing game. He’s their best WR if healthy. If he does take the field, I’ll have some shares of McMillan across my lineups.
  • NOTE: McMillan is out. Shepard has the most NFL experience and will likely be a redzone target for Mayfield. I have him ranked as top Bucs WR with Jarrett, Palmer, and Miller following him in that order.
• I like Rachaad White in the passing game but not the running game tonight. He’s a tick ahead of Irving in snap count and touches.
• Both Kickers are in play – Total is 46.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
• The Chiefs D is in play as they rank in the top 6 in many defensive metrics.

Favorite prop for the game: Baker Mayfield over 0.5 Int’s (-160)

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

One play in the NFL season has defined our year to date. The Hail Mary in Washington took us from a winning week to a losing week, in just a few short seconds. The way this season has gone, it really came as no surprise. We tailed Jameis and the Jags, both in underdog roles, to get us two needed wins. But the 3rd win is still elusive as the craziest of plays seems to go against us this season. Have no fear, we chug ahead and have some good data and insight to push us up the ladder this week.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on our pick last week with the Lions.

NFL BETS WEEK 9 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 14-19)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +7.5 at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Jags have played better football the last few weeks. But that doesn’t change the fact that they are just 2-6 and 2.5 games out of a playoff spot. At this point, it looks like HC Doug Pederson is coaching for his job as the Jaguars owner deemed this team the most talented he’s had but the results are yet to show. So I expect Pederson to be as aggressive as ever making them a dangerous team.

As for the Eagles, they are coming off their best game in 2 years as they dominated Cincy 37-17. They also have two huge divisional games on deck with the Cowboys on deck for Week 10 and the Commanders sitting behind them as the Week 11 opponent. Have you hear the term “trap game”? This looks like one here in Philly so I’ll take the points with the road team.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +1.5 vs LA RAMS

The Seahawks are playing like Jeckyl and Hyde this season. They came out of the gates hot, going 3-0 and looking like a contender in the NFC. But recent losses to the Giants, 49ers and Bills have set them back to the 0.500 mark and they now look like sellers at the trade deadline. On the other side, the Rams are trending upwards with two straight wins. Last week they handed the Vikings their first loss of the season.

But I’m going back to Seattle here as the Rams pass defense is an issue. DVOA ranks the Rams as the 27th best pass defense and PFF has them as the 2nd worst coverage team. Seattle ranks in the top 7 in most passing categories, including a league leading 262.5 passing yards per game.

TENNESSEE TITANS -3 vs NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Patriots QB Drake Maye is questionable with a head injury. I’d be surprised if he plays as New England needs to take the long game with their prized QB. But the Patriots did surprise many last week with an upset of their bitter rivals in the Jets. So emotions are flying high with NE. On the other side, the Titans looked good for about 15 minutes last week. And then 52-14 happened. So these are two teams with different trajectories coming into their Week 9 matchup. Yet, I’m going with the Titans to get their 2nd win of the season this week. The Patriots and Jets are rivals and anything can happen in divisional games. The Titans got blown out, but it was by the best team in football right now in Detroit. The public only sees the recent results but if we look back, NE was outscored 73-37 in the two weeks leading up to Week 8. I’ll go where the sharp money is and back Tennessee this week.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -1.5 at CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Jameis Winston story was great last week. And we can see the emotion he brings to the team which helped propel them to a huge divisional upset over the Ravens. But on any given week Jameis can taketh away too. He’s either good for 3 TD’s or 3 INT’s. And versus a top 10 defense, I like the Chargers and Jim Harbaugh to be receivers of the bad Jameis this week. Afterall, it would be a Cleveland thing to do following a great win.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): DOLPHINS +6.5 over BILLS

SURVIVOR PICK

BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens will come into this game fuming from their loss in Cleveland. Bo Nix has been good but this is too much of a task to ask him to keep up with one of the best offenses in the league.

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Week 8 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We’ve already taken down a few showdowns this year as a team at WinDaily, and I feel like we’re due for another. So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between two storied franchises in the Giants and Steelers. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

NEW YORK GIANTS

Running Back

The Giants simply don’t run the ball enough, or effectively, to be relied on in season long DFS. But they have had some weekly success, including Tyrone Tracy putting up big numbers in their only other primetime game against the Bengals in Week 6. So throw out any bias you have with the Giants running game tonight as it pertains to fantasy and let’s see if we can find value in their matchup with the Steelers.

The reality is, this is a tough matchup for the Giants run game. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in rushing defense DVOA and 4th in PFF rush defense ranking. And they’re allowing the 5th lowest fantasy point to RB’s this season. Add to that the Giants average just 3.9 yards/carry, which is 29th in the league, and have the 7th lowest run block rating in the NFL. Put all that together, and we’re back to where we started, fading the Giants running game.

The one piece of good news, if there is any, is that the Steelers are susceptible to RB’s in the passing game as they allow 5.1 catches per game to running backs. And both Singletary and Tracy are good pass catchers.

Overall, I like the $4K discount on Tracy. While last week’s game got out of hand quickly for the Giants, Tracy saw 67% of the snaps compared to Singletary’s 21%. The touches were late in the game with the score decided so I’m ignoring that. But Tracy does seem to have the hotter hand right now. And the Giants are desperate, so they need to take chances and use whoever is performing best.

Tier 1: Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Tier 2: Devin Singletary

Wide Receiver

This is the one spot that we’ll look to get some Giants into our lineups. While they struggle with protection, allowing 8 sacks last week, they have the 8th highest passing rate in the NFL, throwing it almost 60% of the time. And the spread, as well as team records, indicate they could be down early and often.

The Steelers have allowed the 14th most passing yards in the league, at 217 per game. Their DB’s are ranked 17th in team defense pass coverage. So there will be room to take shots if Daniel Jones has time. Obvious first choice is Malik Nabers. But the Steelers have allowed big games to #2 and slot WR’s like Ray Ray McCloud (led Falcons in receiving in Week 1), Jalen Tolbert (7 for 87 with TD) and Josh Downs (8 for 82 yards with TD). So, I like Wan’Dale Robinson to be a factor tonight and rank him up there with Nabers based on projected volume. Both led the team with 8 targets last week.

Tier 1: Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson

Tier 2: Darius Slayton

Punts: N/A

Tight End

We keep waiting for the Theo Johnson breakout game. And once again, he disappointed last week recording 0 catches on 0 targets. And maybe that happens this week as Pittsburgh has been vulnerable against TE’s. As of this writing, they allow the 11th most fantasy points per games to TE’s. And they’ve surrendered 3 receiving TD’s to tight ends. And if you haven’t heard, it was national TE day yesterday so no way will Theo want to be left out on the fun. I like him a lot because of his price tag and potential. Now it’s up to the QB to actually give him some looks.

Tier 1: Theo Johnson

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Running Back

The Giants are coming off a game in which they allowed 176 yards rushing to Saquon Barkley, their former 1st-round pick. In total, they surrendered 269 yards on the ground in Week 7 against the Eagles. Some metrics give them a better rating, as they are 14th in rush defense DVOA and 16th in PFF run defense. But I saw what I saw last week, and that is if you commit to the run then you can get big gains against this Giants defense.

The issue is, Pittsburgh isn’t necessarily built like the Eagles as they have the 21st ranked rushing offense according to DVOA. And they rank 22nd in rushing offense in points expected from the running game, with a negative 3.17 total. But the good news is, they do commit to the run, ranking as the 2nd highest run rate in the league at 54%. So if commit is what we want then we will probably see that tonight with the Steelers.

Last week, Jaylen Warren actually saw more snaps then Najee Harris. But Harris dominated the touches with 21 to Warren’s 14. What we’re seeing is Warren taking more of a lead role now that he is healthy as his snap count and touches have gone up since his return. Therefore, of the two, I like Warren the most tonight and think he could have a breakout game. Harris will only find value if he lands in the endzone.

Tier 1: Jaylen Warren

Tier 2: Najee Harris

Wide Receiver

The return of Russell Wilson made George Pickens into a fantasy hero. He had his best outing of the year, putting up 25.1 fantasy points and recording 111 yards receiving on 5 catches with one TD. We’ll look for more of that from Pickens tonight as he becomes more of a downfield target with Wilson behind center. The Giants can be susceptible to the long ball as they allowed a completion of 24 yards or more in every game this season.

Several other Pittsburgh receivers got into the action last week as well, with Darnell Washington (TE) and Calvin Austin both seeing 4 targets each. Van Jefferson saw three. But the key was that Jefferson saw 62% of the snaps which was 12% more than Austin. That is 6 of 7 weeks that Jefferson has out-snapped his counterpart.

Tier 1: George Pickens

Tier 2: Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin

Cheap Options: N/A

Tight End

The Giants have been tough on TE’s, allowing just 246 yards on 28 receptions in 7 weeks of action. But Pittsburgh likes to use a lot of “12” personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR), getting both Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington over 50% snap counts last week (Pittsburgh has 9th highest usage of 12 personnel at 22%). Combined they saw 7 targets from Wilson and caught 6 of them for 87 yards. Because of the gap in salary, I do like Washington better tonight. But if you have the room, Freiermuth is always a trusted option in the Pittsburgh offense.

Tier 1: Pat Freiermuth

Tier 2: Darnell Washington

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like George Pickens or Malik Nabers. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they make plays with their legs and there isn’t high star power in this game. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is George Pickens but I also like Daniel Jones, Malik Nabers, Russell Wilson and Wan’Dale Robinson.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: George Pickens, Malik Nabers

FDMVP Tier 2: Russell Wilson, Daniel Jones

FDMVP Tier 3: Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Wan’Dale Robinson, Pat Freiermuth

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: George Pickens, Malik Nabers, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson

DK CPT Tier 2: Wan’Dale Robinson, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren

DK CPT Tier 3: Najee Harris, Darnell Washington, Tyrone Tracy, Steelers D

DK CPT Punt: 

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Malik Nabers
• George Pickens
• Russell Wilson
• Daniel Jones
• Steelers D
• Jaylen Warren
• Wan’Dale Robinson
• Pat Freiermuth

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Najee Harris
• Theo Johnson
• Chris Boswell
• Greg Joseph
• Tyrone Tracy
• Devin Singletary
• Van Jefferson
• Calvin Austin
• Darnell Washington

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

• Daniel Bellinger
• Jalin Hyatt

Best Rules for the slate:

• The #1 WR’s have the most star power tonight as well as the best ability to break a big play. Must consider both Pickens and Nabers at CPT and in most of your lineups as a pair.
• This is one night I could see a defense in the CPT position. The Steelers D is in the top 10 of yards allowed and DVOA. The Giants allowed 8 sacks last week and their O Line is a mess. I will play some lineups with the Steel Curtain as my CPT.
• Even though it’s a tough matchup on paper, I think a Pittsburgh TE is in play. Don’t play both but either Freiermuth or Washington could emerge as receiver #2 on Pittsburgh.
• I’m big on Jaylen Warren tonight. He adds another dimension to this offense. I’ll play him over Harris in a lot of my lineups.
• Wan’Dale Robinson gets so many targets that he must be considered in all lineups. He won’t get you a ton of yards, but he’s going to see 8+ targets which gives him extreme value tonight.
• I’m fading the Giants running game. But Tyrone Tracy at $4400 is worth a look. I’m not playing Singletary at $8400 and against this defense.
• Both QB’s are in play. I like Jones slightly more but there is a risk of him being pulled if it gets out of hand. Happened last week though Drew Lock didn’t fare any better.
• Both Kickers are in play – Total is just 36.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
• I think the Giants could surprise tonight as they play better on the road. Therefore, in a contrarian move, don’t count out the Giants defense to put up some points.

Favorite prop for the game: Daniel Jones over 25.5 yards rushing (-110). TJ Watt will be in the backfield all day and I think Jones will hear footsteps and leave the pocket early.

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.