Jared is back with his favorite plays on PrizePicks today for today’s NFL slate. Make sure to drop into our discord for the rest of the plays!
Fantasy Football DFS experts Ghost and Stix break down the best NFL DFS Picks for Sunday’s Main Slate for DraftKings and FanDuel. The guys will preview all the Week 16 games, making DFS picks as well as going over some player props and bets.
Happy Holidays to the WinDaily family. No matter what you celebrate, we all are here for a common goal and that’s to win some extra spending cash. And we did that last week with a 4-1 record pushing us to +10.8 units on the season. And if you’ve been in Discord of late, I’m also 4-0 in College Bowl Games. So let’s see if we can build that stack even a little higher with our Week 16 NFL Picks.
The favorites ruled in Week 15 as they went 11-4-1 ATS. That’s almost a full reverse from the week prior when dogs covered over 60% of the games. The books have already started good in Week 16 and two dogs, the Steelers and Chargers, covered. And I expect more underdog outright’s today as every game in the 1:00 PM and 4:00 PM window has a spread of 4 points or less.
We’re going back to the well here in fading Green Bay. The Packers have lost two straight games as significant favorites. And they enter today against the Panthers as a solid favorite again. But they just haven’t played well in that role. Their only true win as a favorite was against the Rams when Brett Rypien was the starting QB.
As for Carolina, they’ve covered 2 of 3 since Frank Reich was fired. They’re also 3-3 ATS at home. And their strength, which isn’t much, is their pass D which is ranked 17th in DVOA (rushing D is 31st). Green Bay does not have a strong running game but ranks 5th in passing O DVOA. If you can’t attack Carolina on the ground, they’re able to hang in games. Combine that with the Packers recent discouraging play as a favorite and we have a good spot to back Carolina.
The Lions are looking to clinch the NFC North for the first time in 30 years. And they can do that today with a victory in Minnesota. But if we know anything about Detroit Lions football, nothing ever comes easy. First, the Vikings are in desperation mode as a loss today would likely push them out of playoff competition. Secondly, the Lions started the season with three impressive road victories. But since then, they are 2-2 away from home with their two wins coming by a combined 8 points (vs LAC and NO). Additionally, the Lions are just 2-2 in Division this year losing their last two games to NFC rivals.
The key will be the Vikings D and their ability to create pressure against Detroit. The Lions have allowed the 4th least sacks in the league. But the Vikings are 9th in the league with 41 sacks. Being able to get home against Goff could be the difference between a win and a loss. And if we know one thing, it’s that the Vikings are almost ensured to play a close game. So take the points, and I’d even advocate buying up to +3.5 (if you can keep the juice at -140 or lower).
The Falcons are ready to post their job announcement for a new head coach. But before they do that, there is work to be done on the field as Atlanta still has an outside shot at the playoffs. New Orleans loss on Thursday has cracked open the door even wider for the Falcons and their fate is almost directly in their control. So they’ve done the unthinkable and switched their QB once again opting to go with Taylor Heineke. But for today’s game, I do think this is a good move as their opponent, the Colts, are vulnerable against both the pass and run. However, to beat Indy, you must be able to keep pace and gain positive yards in the passing game. And Heineke gives them the best chance to do that.
Additionally, the loss of Zach Moss and Michael Pittman can’t be fully quantified. Gardner Minshew relies on Pittman and without him, I foresee his risk taking to turn into turnovers. As much as I don’t like Arthur Smith, I do like money. And for that reason, I’m backing the Dirty Birds today.
This game lines up to be a make-or-break game for the Philadelphia Eagles. They come into Monday’s game against New York on a 3-game losing streak and doubts are starting to rise throughout both the fan base and organization. There are reports this week that some people inside the Linc are concerned about Jalen Hurts and his ability to lead. Which is utter nonsense considering they gave him one of the biggest contracts in the NFL just 6 months ago. So this one game will be a test of wills as they will not only have to battle their rivals from the north, but will also have to shed the weight of losing.
And I expect the Eagles to bounce back with resilience this week. Once again, as it was last year with games against NY, the battle in the trenches is the reason the Eagles matchup so well against the Giants. Last season, Philadelphia went 3-0 against the Giants and outscored them 108-45. In those games, the Eagles ran for 656 yards averaging 219 per game. And on the other side, the Eagles pass rush should finally break loose against a Giants offensive line that has allowed the most sacks in the league at 76.
Adding another teaser for your holiday betting action.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
Another week with two solid wins and two not so good results. The Chargers losing Justin Herbert to a finger injury obviously put us in a precarious position. But fading the public in Atlanta was our biggest edge and it resulted in an outright upset win for Tampa. With four solid weeks of football left, we’re heading towards the finish line of a profitable NFL season. Hitting at 58% and up 7.5 units to date is a good season. But of course, we want more!
The books had a profitable week in Week 14. The dogs went 9-5-1 and the public went 5-9-1. The biggest wins came on Monday night as two underdogs won outright in NYG and Tennessee.
A lot of this hinges on the ankle of Tyreek Hill. So I’m waiting out the news on his status before I jump fully on this game. If he’s out, and we can find a number under 7, then I’m still going to back Miami.
But the main reason I like Miami this week is because of their running game and the Jets porous rush defense. On the one hand, the Jets allow the 5th most rushing yards per game at 131.8. They are also 15th in rushing defense DVOA. As for Miami, they are 2nd in rushing offense DVOA and have the 2nd most rushing yards in the league. They also average the highest yards per carry at 5.3. They do not have to pass the ball heavily to dominate the game today. And with Achane (questionable), Mostert and Wilson, they have enough carriers to stay fresh and execute a run heavy game plan.
Lastly, the Dolphins are 3-0 after a loss and have won by an average of 12.5 points per game.
This bet is a story of two teams that come into this game with two distinctly different rest situations. The Commanders are coming off a bye week and haven’t played in 14 days. The Rams are coming off an OT game in Baltimore, which was played 3000+ miles from their home. Additionally, outside of a 4th quarter collapse in Dallas, Washington is much better on the road. They are 3-4 SU away from home (1-5 SU at home) and 5-2 ATS on the road. As for the Rams, they are 3-3 SU at home with their wins coming against Josh Dobbs (Arizona), Joe Flacco (Cleveland), and Geno Smith/Drew Lock (Seattle). The latter came on a Seahawks missed FG.
Point here is the Rams are in competition for a playoff spot but have had a tough travel routine of late while Washington is coming in fresh and plays better on the road. The public is also backing the Rams with 63% of the tickets and 58% of the money on LA.
The Packers looked to have turned the corner but played complacent last week and ended up waking up too late to salvage a win in NY against the Giants. Now they’re behind the 8-ball again and will need to find a way to get started quickly today against Tampa.
But it’s a short week and Green Bay doesn’t run away from teams. They have played five straight one-score games coming into today. Additionally, Tampa is also a better road team than they are at home. The Bucs are now 5-2 ATS (3-4 SU) on the road and have a +16 point differential. I like the hook and believe Tampa’s running offense will keep them in the game long enough to potentially pull off the upset.
We have an awesome game today sitting in the 4pm slot. The Buffalo Bills have won two straight games and are looking like the team everyone thought they were at the beginning of the season. As for Dallas, they got their first win against an opponent with a winning record last week by dominating the Philadelphia Eagles. And that has now enlightened the public bettors as they have flocked to the window to back the team with a star on their helmet. As of this writing 74% of the money and 80% of the bets are on the Cowboys. Yet, Vegas hasn’t moved this line more than 0.5 points all week.
I still think Dallas has issues in tight situations. They have proven they can win blowouts but Dallas is just 2-1 in games decided by six points or less. On the other hand, the Bills have played nine games decided by six points or less. If this game is close late, I’ll take the team in Buffalo that has played over 68% of their games that are defined in the clutch. Plus, Buffalo’s weakness is their run defense and Dallas is just 16th in rushing offense DVOA.
With most Survivor Leagues over, let’s add a fun bet to today’s card. If you do have a survivor pick left, the Rams and Falcons would be ideal (unless you still have KC or Miami left).
I don’t often play teasers but today we have an opportunity to grab two of the best teams in the league against two of the worst. Additionally, we can get under two key numbers (3 and 7) which is what you should always look for in the teaser market.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
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