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Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Green Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks

Ivan Herrera 5 months ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Week 15 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Packers take on the Seahawks at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Green Bay Packers

Running Backs

Seattle is giving up 24.7 DK per game (11th Most).
They have allowed 1423 rushing yards (8th Most).
They have allowed 458 receiving yards (13th Most).

The Green Bay backfield is controlled by one player and that is Josh Jacobs. Jacobs is leading all Packer running backs in snaps (542), touches (273), yards (1313), and touchdowns (12). With Seattle being in the bottom half of the league against running backs in almost every category, Jacobs is one of my favorite plays on the slate. Besides their first game against the Cardinals, the Seattle run defense has struggled to contain opposing running backs.

Jacobs has two backups who have seen the field in the last couple of weeks: Chris Brooks and Emanuel Wilson. Of the two Brooks has seen the most playing time since their Week 10 bye. He has out-snapped Wilson 64-25 in those four weeks and has had double the touches over the past two weeks, 6:3. But with that being said, I don’t necessarily think you need either guy unless you are playing a lot of lineups. Jacobs will continue to be the workhorse back unless he gets injured during the game.

Tier 1: Josh Jacobs

Tier 2: Chris Brook, Emanuel Wilson

Wide Receiver

The Seahawks have allowed 1771 yards to opposing wide receivers (8th Fewest).
They are giving up 32.7 DK (16th Most).

The Packers wide receiver room gets a boost with Romeo Doubs being cleared to play after missing the previous two games. His inclusion will make it tougher to call who will go off this game as over the past five weeks three differentwide receivers have been the best option in a given week. Doubs, Reed, and Watson have all had their moments to shine with each having 90+ games at different points in the season. While all three are in a good spot, my lean is Romeo Doubs as he should get the best matchup of the top three GB wide receivers. He’ll see a lot of Josh Jobe who is giving up slightly more FPRR and YPRR than his teammates. Of the other two I would say Reed should have the better game. He had no receptions last week on only a single target playing 50% of the snaps. GB should try to get him involved a bit more against Seattle including using him once again in the run game.

Dontayvion Wicks is the only other Green Bay wide receiver I have in my player pool. He has played at least 30% of snaps every game since Week 7 and played 84% of snaps in the two games Doubs missed. He is only $5400 on DraftKings and he is averaging 4.3 targets a game, you can do a lot worse in that midrange than Wicks.

Tier 1: Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson

Tier 2: Dontayvion Wicks

Punts/Fades: Bo Melton, Malik Heath

Tight End

The Seahawks have given 763 receiving yards to tight ends (11th Most).
They are giving up 17 DK (12th Most).

Tucker Kraft is the main guy at tight end for the Packers. He has played 709 snaps this season meanwhile the tight end with the second most snaps played is only at 185 (Ben Sims). The only other active tight end, John FitzPatrick has only 30 snaps played this season. Kraft is going to be on the field almost every snap and has only 2 games with under 80% of snaps played, so I expect him to be able to find some success against a Seattle team that is 12th in fantasy points allowed and 11th in yards against tight ends. Kraft, like Doubs and Wicks, is a great play in the midrange.

Tier 1: Tucker Kraft

Punt/Fade: Ben Sims, John FitzPatrick

Seattle Seahawks

Running Back

GB is giving up 30.5 DK per game (10th Most).
They have allowed 1147 rushing yards (12th Fewest).
They have allowed 566 receiving yards (4th Most).

At the time of writing this Kenneth Walker has not officially been ruled out, but it sounds like he is going to miss the game so the Seahawks are going to lean on Sophomore running back, Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet has been a solid number two to Walker this season, in the three games Walker has missed he has 369 total yards and five touchdowns. Green Bay has been good at stopping the run, but I think Charbonnet can do some damage in the passing game. He has 263 receiving yards (20.2/game) and the Packers are allowing more than double that amount of yards (43.5/game) so if Charbonnet can get free out of the backfield, it’ll be a long day for Green Bay.

Kenny McIntosh gets the backup role with Walker out. I don’t like his price ($3K) on DraftKings this week for Showdown based on his workload. In the three games without Walker, McIntosh has averaged nine snaps played for four touches and 13.3 yards and has yet to score. So while I like him if you need a cheap option in MME, I would look at him for SE or 3max.

Tier 1: Zach Charbonnet

FADE/Punt: Kenny McIntosh, George Holani

Wide Receiver

The Packers have given up 1730 receiving yards to wide receivers (4th Fewest).
They are giving up 30.7 DK to receivers (8th Fewest).

The Packers have been one of the better teams against opposing wide receivers this season. This is going to be a tough matchup for Seattle’s top two wide receivers this season, DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Those two wide receivers have combined for 41.2% of the total targets this season with JSN leading the team with a 21.8% target share while Metcalf is second with 19.4%. For this showdown, I think you need to play at least one of these two wide receivers. My lean of the two would be JSN as he gets a slightly more favorable matchup against Javon Bullard of the Packers who is giving up the most fantasy points and yards.

Lockett is very cheap this week at $4000 on DraftKings. He plays enough snaps every game to exceed value but he hasn’t been involved in the passing game this year. In 2023 he led the team with a 21.2% target share, but that number is down to 13.1 with the emergence of JSN who has become the main threat for Seattle. If you need a value play he is worth a shot at his price since he does average 4.8 targets a game, but he is not someone I am forcing into my lineups.

Tier 1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf

Tier 2: Tyler Lockett

Punt: Jake Bobo

Tight End

The Chargers have given up 812 receiving yards to tight ends (7th Most).
They are allowing 14.2 DK per game (7th Most).

The main tight-end threat for Seattle is Noah Fant. He is in a good spot this week against a Green Bay defense that has struggled to contain tight ends this year. Fant has five straight games with at least four targets and has had that number in five of the last seven. Despite missing three games, Fant came back and took over the same workload he had pre-injury. Since returning two weeks ago he has played 63.2% of snaps and has seen eight targets for six receptions and 44 yards.

AJ Barner had been solid while Fant was injured, but he has seen a drop-off in the two games with Fant back. He’s only played 39% of the snaps and has only seen three targets. With Fant being only $3600, I can’t see myself going Barner over him even at $2000.

Tier 1: Noah Fant

Tier 2: AJ Barner

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Zach Charbonnet, Josh Jacobs

FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, Jordan Love

FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Romeo Doubs, Geno Smith

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Zach Charbonnet, Josh Jacobs

DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, Jordan Love

DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Romeo Doubs, Geno Smith

DraftKings CPT Punt: Noah Fant, Tucker Kraft

Flex Tier 1:

Zach Charbonnet
Josh Jacobs
Jordan Love
Geno Smith
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
DK Metcalf
Romeo Doubs
Jayden Reed
Christian Watson
Noah Fant
Tucker Kraft

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

Dontayvion Wicks
GB D/ST
Seattle D/ST
Jason Myers
Brandon McManus
Tyler Lockett
Kenny McIntosh
Chris Brooks
AJ Barner
Bo Melton
Jake Bobo
Emanuel Wilson

Favorite prop for the game: Tucker Kraft Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

5 months ago 0 comments

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Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 15

David Jones 5 months ago

written by David Jones

Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning Sunday Updates

Quarterback Rankings

Josh Allen: Hard to not rank him at the top after last week’s performance in a game with the highest O/U of the week – see receivers for matchups
Joe Burrow: Anything less than 3 TDs is a letdown. – see receivers for matchups
Jared Goff: The Bills might make him throw it, and he has an arsenal at his disposal
Tua Tagovailoa
Will Levis: I make a case for every Titans skill player below, so I have to recommend him as a cheap option. Of course, you need the spends ups all to bust relative to their price.

Running Backs

Chubba Hubbard

Dallas allows 25.8 DraftKings points per game to the RB. They have allowed 16 combined TDs to the position. They are ranked 26^th in DVOA in total defense and 29^th in DVOA against the run. Bryce Young has been playing better and has at least shown the ability to move an offense down the field (converting in the endzone is another story). Hubbard is coming off a 26-attempt game while also getting five targets. I doubt he will pull that kind of volume off again, but it sure is promising. He is priced too low on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is a lock-in cash game while also warranting plenty of GPP exposure.

Brian Robinson Jr.

Austin Ekeler is on IR. Noah Brown is out. That leaves Brian Robinson Jr and Terry McLaurin as the only Commanders you can put faith in to have a significant role in the Washington offenses. The Saints are ranked 31^st in DVOA against the run while giving up 15 total touchdowns to RBs (rushing and receiving) this season. The DraftKings price tag of $6,200 is just too cheap for BRob.

Tyjae Spears (conditional)

If Tony Pollard is ruled out before kickoff, Tyjae Spears becomes the uber chalk at only $4,300. Fantasy bros that have been touting this guy for three years will finally get their victory lap. He is too cheap to fade against a bad Bengals defense. You just lock him in.

Rachaad White (conditional)

If Bucky Irving is ruled out, White will shoot to the top of my list, even in a tough matchup against the Chargers. He would be dramatically underpriced on both sites while being used as the primary runningback and a WR2/3.

*Zach Charbonnet

He is only on the FanDuel slate. I will be locking him in everything.

Best Mid-Range (not listed above):

Rico Dowdle: On the season, CAR has been the worst team in football against the run.
James Conner
Rhamondre Stevenson

Others to consider:

Saquon Barkley
Derrick Henry:
Joe Mixon
De’Von Achane
Jahmyr Gibbs
Chase Brown
David Montgomery

A lot to like this week. I will be trying to narrow it down before and during the live stream tomorrow AM. As it stands now, I can make a case for each of them. I will let my receiver and QB build dictate which of these RBs I land on as of now.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Out of the Lion’s receivers, the Sun God is my preference. He is the Lion’s primary slot receiver and faces Bill’s worst corner in YPRC, Taron Johnson, who plays primarily out of the slot. St. Brown leads DET with a 24% target percentage, averaging 18.1 DK points per game. He is on a three-game streak of no touchdowns but should be able to snap that in Week 15 in a game with a massive 54.5 total. The Bills are also ranked poorly against opposing WR1’s (27^th).

Jameson Williams and Tim Patrick are both in play in game stacks. Williams leads the team in air yards and YPRR. The Bills are also worse against the WR2 (29^th) than the WR1. I don’t expect another Tim Patrick monster game; I’m just looking for a couple of reasons. He will see a lot of Christian Benford, who has been solid. He also is by far the least targeted Lions receiver out of the starters. Dan Campbell also has a way of getting everyone involved, which usually means rotating monster games from one week to another. St. Brown and Williams are heavily preferred here.

The Tennessee Titans

I am going right back to the Titans pass catchers right after they busted last week against the 30^th DVOA pass defense in the league. Before Week 14, it felt like one of these two guys was hitting the nuts weekly. All three of the key wide receivers find themselves as viable DFS plays this Sunday. Nick Westbrook-Ikhines’s touchdown streak was broken last week (but he almost got one at the very end of the game). He lines up on the left side of the field 47% of the time, which is covered by Josh Newton 67% of the time. He has limited opposing receivers to the least number of yards, but he is certainly still beatable.

For upside, Calvin Ridley should put up the highest score. He will see Cam Taylor Britt more than anyone else who has been the Bengal’s worst cover corner. He allows 1.42 YPRC and the most air yards (12.6). He has the second-highest projected target share behind slot corner Mike Hilton.

Tyler Boyd will see Hilton the most, so that is a positive for Boyd. The Bengals are also the worst team on the slate against the WR3 (29^th overall). Also, revenge who like to dabble in that narrative.

Terry McLaurin

Is this guy coming in at 3% or less? The Saint’s season numbers against the WR1 are somehow elite, but that doesn’t take into account how they have been playing lately with the corners they have at their disposal, post-trade deadline. McLaurin will go against a significant amount of man coverage against the outside corners of the Saints. New Orleans is in the bottom five in yards per reception and yards per route covered in man. Overall, the Saints allow the highest number of YPRC of any team in the NFL, and McLaurin is going to get a ton of targets in this one, with Noah Brown being ruled out.

Zay Flowers

The New York Giants are ranked 31^st against the WR1. The only team ranked worse is the Baltimore Ravens. Sure, the game script doesn’t lead to many passes in the second half, but Flowers should be able to do plenty at a $6,000 DraftKings price tag. The last true blowout the Ravens were in was when they beat the Broncos 41-10, and Flowers put up 127 yards and 2 TDs for 32.7 DK points.

Nico Collins

The Dolphins are ranked 25^th against opposing WR1’s. Nico Collins is the second highest-targeted (28.9%) receiver on the slate. He is a priority to get to like he has been all season.

Khalil Shakir

He will get the majority of the slot routes against the Lions, who allow the 4^th most fantasy points to wide receivers in the league. The slot is their weakest position, allowing 1.31 YPRC while also being the highest targeted by opposing offenses. Shakir leads the bills in YPRR and target share (25.4%).

The New York Jets

The Jaguars are the worst team via DVOA against the pass. The best way (not the only way) is to throw it down the right side of the field. Allen Lazard runs the most right-side routes on the season, so taking a stab at him is viable in large-field GPPs. He did get up to 78% of snaps last week, and we have witnessed Aaron Rodgers being more than willing to throw it to him even when Adams and Wilson are on the field. Aside from that deep shot, rolling out Adams or Wilson is warranted as well. As far as choosing one, that is a difficult task. My metrics lean ever so slightly towards Adams, so if I am forced to choose one (I am not), I suppose it would be him.

Dyami Brown

He should see the largest benefit (aside from Terry McLaurin) from Noah Brown being ruled out. Brown was seeing the second most receiver snaps for the Commanders (up to 89% in Week 10). With those snaps now vacated, Dyami Brown, along with Olamide Zaccheaus and Luke McCaffrey, will see the field more. As far as raw playing time goes, I have Brown getting the largest bump. The Saints have been oddly good against the WR1 lately. However, they have been letting everyone else slip through the cracks. Brown is only $3,100 on DraftKings, and I am fairly confident he can beat that salary 9 out of 10 times he gets this role.

Tee Higgins

He and Ja’Marr Chase are both going to run on the outside the majority of the time, while Andrei Iosivas gets 50% of the slot snaps. The Titans will still be without L’Jarius Sneed (their best corner), and the Bengals should be able to take full advantage in a game they absolutely must win (including all the games the rest of the season) to have a shot at the postseason. In all reality, too many things have to happen for the Bengals to get into the playoffs, but they are still going to be playing like they have a shot. Burrow can easily throw for 3-TDs here, and Higgins and Chase will be the prime beneficiaries. Higgins wins in this portion of the article for me simply because he is cheaper and has the same rotating matchup as Chase.

Amari Cooper or Keon Coleman

Cooper is a better receiver at this stage in the game, but the matchups are essentially identical. Coleman is significantly cheaper, so if you can’t fit Cooper, you should feel comfortable with Coleman.

Devaughn Vele

The Colts run a ton of zone coverage, and Vele is the receiver that typically benefits at the highest rate for the Denver Broncos. He leads the Broncos in target % and YPRR in zone. If you can not afford Courtland Sutton, who I also like a great deal at his mid-range salary, Vele is a nice leverage option.

Others to consider

Tyreek Hill: I’m not doing a big write-up here, but he is the preference on the Dolphins. Will draw the most favorable overall matchup for them when factoring in routes run, CB matchups, and projected target %
Ladd McConkey
Malik Nabers: Baltimore is terrible covering the WR, but the Giants offense is also terrible.
Jaylen Waddle: Comes in second in volume for Tua’s receivers but third in overall CB matchups.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Malik Washington: I love the matchup and increased snaps via OBJ’s departure, I just don’t trust the volume
Michael Wilson

Tight End

Best Value: Brenton Strange

Best Spend Up: Trey McBride

Value Pivots:

Stone Smart

He is a cheap, tight-end option who will be getting a playing time boost with Will Dissly ruled out. Tampa has been bad against tight ends overall this season (27^th via DVOA) but has been better as of late. If Ladd McConkey were to be ruled out, Smart would be in the running for the best TE value on the slate.

Chig Okonkwo

I have loved targeting the Bengals with tight ends this season. They allow the 4^th most fantasy points to the position while giving up the second most receiving touchdowns (8). We have not had a ceiling game out of Okonkwo all season. His best game came against Houston in Week 12 when he caught his only target for one touchdown. In the past two games, he has been targeted ten combined times. I can work with that at only $2,900 on DraftKings and no ownership in large-field GPPs.

Others to consider:

Jonnu Smith
Sam LaPorta: Likely just use him in game stacks
Jake Ferguson: The matchup is there we just need to QB play to be there, too
Mark Andrews
Juwan Johnson
Tyler Conklin: Best DVOA TE spot in the NFL, but low volume option.

Favorited Game Stacks

BUF DET
MIA HOU
CIN TEN

Favorite Team Stacks (not mentioned above)

Final slate thought. Going through my research, I made a case for every single skill position for the Titans, from QB, RB, WR, and TE. That scares me, but those numbers are what they are. Let go, Titans! (I guess)

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.

5 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Fifteen

Dave Gloeckner 5 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had another solid outing by going 3-2 in our plays from last week’s article. The Monday Night Football game got us on the plus side as the Bengals used a fortunate bounce to cover the line as road favorites. The thought of Kirk’s revenge went sour, but the Panthers covering a big line and almost pulling off a stunner in Philly was our best play of the weekend. We’ve now dug ourselves out of the early season hole and got over the 0.500 mark. With four weeks left, and a recent string of 8 games over 0.500 in the last 6 weeks, we’ll look to keep the momentum going into this weekend’s big slate.

Of note, the dogs went 7-5-1 last week. Of the seven ATS covers, two were outright wins.

As for Survivor, most leagues have wrapped up but if you’re still alive then I’ll give my best play outside of Baltimore (16-point favorites). We won last week by backing the Dolphins. This week, I lean Philadelphia as a 5.5 point favorite. The Eagles had a lot of white noise going on this week but I think that’ll help them focus and knock off another AFC contender. Another team to consider is Minnesota as they are playing a Bears team that is looking like they are laying down for the rest of the season.

NFL BETS WEEK 15 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 35-34-1, game bets only)

DENVER BRONCOS -3.5 vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Both teams are heading into this critical matchup coming off a bye week. They are both relatively healthy and fresh which will be key as this game is as close to a playoff game as any this weekend. With a win, the Broncos chances of being in the playoffs rises to 91%. But with a loss, they drop to 51%. On the flipside, the Colts have a 51% chance of reaching the playoffs with a win but drop to 6% with a loss.

I lean towards the Broncos in this matchup as they have been a team on the rise over the past two months. In their last 3 home games, they are 3-0 ATS and have an average win margin of 18.3 points per game. Alternatively, the Colts are 3-3 ATS on the road this season, and are 1-2 ATS in their past 3 road games. This includes two games they won by 1-point each against the hapless Jets and Patriots.

Additionally, I see a broad gap between the teams in DVOA. Denver is 5th overall defensively while Indianapolis is 16th. Offensively, it’s closer but Denver still has the edge at 20th overall vice Indy at 22nd overall. And Denver has played a much tougher schedule than the Colts. So, saddle up and say it together, Broncos Country “let’s ride”!

NEW YORK JETS -3.5 at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I said two weeks ago that I’d never take the Jets again. Yet here we are and I’m breaking my promise. But really, the Jets are a favorite against anyone? Not only a favorite but a road favorite and one that is over the key number of three. I hate to say it, but this line tells me something. This is more of an indictment on the Jaguars, Doug Pederson and Mac Jones. So with that, I’ll keep this one short, J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!

CAROLINA PANTHERS -2.5 vs DALLAS COWBOYS

The Panthers are favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. Say that with me again. The Carolina Panthers are favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. Imagine what this line was projected to be before the season started. Likely at least a touchdown favorite for Dallas. So it’s crazy how the tides have turned and we’re now on the opposite side of the seesaw.

But this line speaks volumes. The Panthers have been playing better football since reinserting QB Bryce Young into the starting role. They’ve covered five straight games including two against top teams in the league such as Philly and KC. As for Dallas, they let a game slip on MNF which virtually takes away their (slim) possibility of making the playoffs. They’ll likely not be as up as they could have been if they won last week. While the Panthers are playing inspired football. Give me Carolina in what would be an upset on paper but not in Vegas.

CLEVELAND BROWNS +5 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs keep winning games that they clearly shouldn’t. And while that is good for their record, they have been a losing team in Vegas all year. Kansas City posts a 12-1 record SU but is 4-9 ATS including six straight losses to the number.

The Browns are a roller coaster mainly because their QB plays with such a reckless abandon. But since Jameis took over the reigns from Deshaun Watson, the Browns are 2-1 ATS at home including two outright wins as an underdog against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): Green Bay Packers -3 (Sunday Night Football)

SURVIVOR PICK

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Bears are a mess. They can’t block anyone and their QB holds onto the ball forever. Not a good recipe against Minnesota who are 4th in the NFL with 40 sacks.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

5 months ago 0 comments

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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: CINCINNATI BENGALS at DALLAS COWBOYS

Dave Gloeckner 5 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 14 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a battle of two of the more disappointing teams in the NFL as the 4-8 Bengals travel to the 5-7 Cowboys. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Bengals and Cowboys. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a high point spread and low total as Cincy is a 4.5-point favorite with a game total at 49.5. With a high total and moderate spread, we are anticipating a shootout in Big D.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Running Back

The Bengals started the season with a shared backfield, splitting reps and carries between Zack Moss and Chase Brown. However, there is no longer a sharing of the ball as Chase Brown has taken over the reigns and a full workload. In fact, Brown logged 81% of the offensive snaps last week and 94% of the RB touches. The 81% of snaps was the 4th highest for RB’s in the NFL last week, trailing just Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara. That’s great news for fantasy owners and Brown is getting the snaps and touches in one of the best offenses.

As for his matchup tonight, the Cowboys have been one of the worst rushing defenses all season. They allow the 2nd most rushing yards per game, at 147.6. Additionally, they allow the 7th most fantasy points to RB’s, including the 2nd most rushing TD’s allowed at 14. As for DVOA, they rank the Cowboys as the 5th wors rush defense.

In short, it’s Chase Brown’s backfield and he should be heavily considered as a CPT tonight based on matchup and predicted opportunities.

Tier 1: Chase Brown

Tier 2:

Punt: Khalil Herbert

Wide Receiver

We know the Bengals have firepower at the receiver position, led by Ja’Marr Chase who is 2nd in the NFL with 1,142 receiving yards. Tee Higgins is a great #2 wideout and has scored a touchdown in three straight games. In all, the Bengals lead the league in passing yards per game at 264.4.

As for Dallas, they are ranked 21st in pass defense DVOA. Some of their numbers are misleading as they allow just 212.1 yards per game passing, which is 10th fewest in the NFL. But their pass coverage is rated as the 7th worst. And they could be missing DB Trevon Diggs tonight as he’s listed as questionable.

The Cowboys have been particularly vulnerable against RB’s and TE’s in the passing game. And while #1 WR’s have had some big games against them (McClaurin, Nabers, AJ Brown), the biggest games have come from the #2 WR’s.

Rashid Shaheed (Week 2): 4/96 yards and 1 TD
Wandale Robinson (Week 4): 11/71 yards
Jameson Williams (Week 6): 3/76 yards and 1 TD
Darnell Mooney (Week 9): 5/88 yards and 1 TD

The numbers are there for either Chase or Higgins to have a big game. While I could see both exploding, especially if Diggs is out, I’m going to typically target one of these and pair with QB, RB and TE. Some lineups I will look to do a straight Higgins and Chase plus Burrow without the RB.

Tier 1: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins

Tier 2: Andrei Iosivas

Punts:

Tight End

Mike Gesicki was shutout 2 weeks ago against the Chargers. But outside of that game, he’s averaging 5.5 catches and 63.5 yards per game over the past 1.5 months.

The Cowboys have allowed six receiving TD’s to TE’s which is good for 5th most in the NFL. Additionally, they have allowed TE’s to catch 77% of their targets, which is 4th highest in the league. So if the Cowboys have to use extra coverage tonight against Chase, I expect Gesicki to be the biggest beneficiary.

Tier 1: Mike Gesicki

Tier 2: Tanner Hudson

Punt/Fadeable:

DALLAS COWBOYS

Running Back

The Cowboys RB situation has been well documented all year, as they chose to sign Ezekial Elliott and pair him with a underused Rico Dowdle instead of targeting a big name free agent RB, like Derek Henry or Saquon Barkley. But the good news is, the ‘Boys have finally settled on Dowdle as their main workhorse and he’s paying off in big ways for fantasy owners. And at the exact right time of year. Last week, Dowdle saw 70% of the snaps and 97% of the touches. In fact, he had the 6th most touches for RB’s in Week 13 with 25. That’s coming off a week in where he saw 22 touches and 88% of the load. So it doesn’t look like a one week occurrence but more a shift in philosophy.

The Bengals have a terrible defense. They’ve allowed 113 points in the past three games, all losses. They allow the 2nd most points per game at 28.3. Additionally, Cincy allows the 5th most yards per game at 369.2. The run defense isn’t good by any measure allowing the 10th most yards on the ground per game at 128.2. They rank in the middle of the pack for fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but the key stat is they’ve surrendered 12 rushing TD’s to backs, good for 5th most.

Tier 1: Rico Dowdle

Tier 2: Ezekial Elliott

Wide Receiver

As noted above, Cincy’s terrible defense shows up in many ways, including the passing game. They allow the 6th most passing yards per game at 241.0. And DVOA has their pass defense ranked as 30th overall.

Even when the matchup presents itself, the Cowboys still throw the ball more than they run. On the season, they throw the ball 66% of the time which is 5th highest in the league. So I fully expect HC Mike McCarthy to drop Cooper Rush back to throw more than 35 times tonight. Which means we’ll need some Cowboy WR’s for our DFS lineups.

The top target is Cee Dee Lamb. And he’s been cleared to play which is good news for Dallas.

But Brandin Cooks returned last week and immediately made an impact by scoring a TD on Thanksgiving Day. He’s going to be involved more heavily tonight and has the chance to put up a big game.

And we must consider KaVontae Turpin who has exploded on the scene of late. Flashing speed like Tyreek Hill, the Boys will try to find ways to get Turpin the ball in space. He even received a rushing attempt last week and we could see Dallas try that again tonight on MNF.

Tier 1: Cee Dee Lamb

Tier 2: Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin

Cheap Options: Jalen Tolbert

Tight End

The Bengals allow the 3rd most fantasy points to TE’s. The big boys have caught 8 TD’s against Cincy’s D, good for 2nd most in the league.

Tier 1: Jake Ferguson

Tier 2: Luke Schoonmaker

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Rico Dowdle or Cee Dee Lamb. The QB’s are both in play as Rush and Burrow will look to throw the ball downfield. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Cee Dee Lamb

FDMVP Tier 2: Rico Dowdle, Cooper Rush, Tee Higgins

FDMVP Tier 3: Mike Gesicki, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Cee Dee Lamb

DK CPT Tier 2: Rico Dowdle, Cooper Rush, Tee Higgins

DK CPT Tier 3: Mike Gesicki, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks

DK CPT Punt: Brandon Aubrey

Best Rules for the slate:

No weather concerns as game is being played in Dallas at AT&T Stadium. Great environment for points. The Cowboys haven’t allowed less than 20 points in a home game this year. And the Bengals are giving up 38 points per game in their last 3.
I’ll have Chase Brown as my most rostered player and highest percentage of CPTs. His volume and time of the field is top 5 in the NFL. And Cowboys are not good against pass catching RB’s.
For the Bengals WR’s, I prefer Higgins to Chase just based on what I believe DC Zimmer will try to do to limit Chase’s touches. And he comes at $2K less in salary on DK. But both are in play.
Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 30 passing TD’s. He has a great matchup tonight and will be played heavily in most of my lineups.
Don’t sleep on Cooper Rush. The Cowboys throw the ball 66% of the time. Russell Wilson passed for over 400 yards against this Bengals D last week.
The Bengals are vulnerable against the long ball. That make Brandin Cooks in play for a big night.
Consider a kicker with the team you have more players on. If someone gets down, they will avoid kicking FG’s.
The Cowboys will need to get KaVontae Turpin the ball at least 4 times. He’s a home run threat every time he touches it. And you can get him at a great price.
Like Brown, this is Rico Dowdle’s backfield and no one else. Great upside based on volume and opponent.
Don’t sleep on the TE’s. Both at under $6K is good value and you can fit them in with 2-3 players up top.

Favorite prop for the game: TBD

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

5 months ago 0 comments

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Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Ivan Herrera 5 months ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Week 14 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Chargers take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Los Angeles Chargers

Running Backs

This is a stay-away spot for me this week. With JK Dobbins being placed on IR last week, Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal take over as the stars of the Chargers backfield. Last week against the Falcons the two only combined for 10 carries for 52 yards and neither were able to find the end zone. That was against a Falcon’s run defense that is allowing 87.5 yards per game on the ground. This week, they take on a KC side that is allowing a league-low 57.5 rushing yards per game.

The only exposure I will have of either guy will be in the 20max or higher contest. In SE and 3max I am going to fade this matchup. But with that said if you do want to play one of these backs, I would use Edwards, he played twice the amount of snaps Vidal played, 24:12

Tier 2: Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal

FADE: Hassan Haskins

Wide Receiver

The Chiefs have allowed 1602 yards to opposing wide receivers (7th Fewest).
They are giving up 31.9 DK (13th Fewest).

The Chiefs have been great against opposing wide receivers in fantasy this season. But this is a spot where I would target to attack Kansas City’s defense. The Chargers wide receiver room is led by rookie Ladd McConkey. McConkey was a quarterback’s best friend while in Georgia and has become one in Los Angeles as well. McConkey is leading the Chargers in targets (81), receptions (58), yards (815), FPRR (.54), and YPRR (2.38). He gets a good matchup against Chamarri Conners. Conners is giving up the most fantasy points (.29) and the second most yards (1.34) per route. McConkey should have plenty of opportunities this game as he is a target on 24.9% of his routes and Conners is allowing a target on 18.9% of routes defended which is the seventh highest percentage.

The number two and three wide receivers for the Chargers are Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer. Palmer has played 39 more snaps than Johnston but Johnston has seen five more targets. Of the two my second receiver for Showdown will be Johnston. He sees more targets per snap played and route ran than Palmer who is only seeing a target on 8.9% of his snaps and 16.3% of his routes. Johnston should also get a softer matchup against Nazeeh Johnson, meanwhile, Palmer should see a lot of Trent McDuffie who has been KC’s best corner allowing the fewest FPRR and YPRR on the team.

Tier 1: Ladd McConkey

Tier 2: Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer

Punts/Fades: Jalen Raegor, Derius Davis, DJ Chark

Tight End

The Bills have given 942 receiving yards to tight ends (Most in NFL).
They are giving up 17 DK (2nd Most).

Will Dissly is my second favorite play on the Chargers behind Ladd McConkey. For how good the Chiefs have been statistically against running backs and wide receivers, they have surprisingly been the worst team against tight end this season. On DraftKings he is the best play under the 5K range and is almost a lock for me in every lineup. He is averaging 4.7 targets per game if we take out last week’s game where he was not really involved.

The only other tight end that has played any role for the Chargers offense over the past three weeks is Tucker Frisk. He has 62 snaps played (34%) over the past three weeks which is only behind Dissly in snaps by a tight end. He is a complete fade in SE and 3max but if you are running a lot of lineups then I would include him in a few.

Tier 1: Will Dissly

Punt/Fade: Tucker Fisk

Kansas City Chiefs

Running Back

LA is giving up 20.1 DK per game (7th Fewest).
They have allowed 1132 rushing yards (16th Fewest).
They have allowed 365 receiving yards (13th Fewest).

The Chargers have been good against running backs this season, but that is not going to stop me from rostering Pacheco this week in Showdowns. Pacheco made his return last week after missing almost three months of football. He played 37% of the Chiefs snaps and played only one less snap than Hunt who had taken over for him as the starter. Pacheco looked good in his return but it didn’t really show up on the stat sheet. But this is a game where we can see him become the back he was coming into the season prior to the injury.

I still like Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine a bit for Showdown this week. Both running backs should continue to get touches throughout the game, but I am reserving them for multiple-entry contests since they are not the featured backs. The one running back that might see his touches taken away is Carson Steele. He saw a career-low three snaps last week, and with a healthier Pacheco, I can’t see him regaining his touches unless someone gets injured.

Tier 1: Isiah Pacheco

Tier 2: Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine

FADE/Punt: Carson Steele

Wide Receiver

The Chargers have given up 1750 receiving yards to wide receivers (15th Fewest).
They are giving up 31.9 DK to receivers (12th Fewest).

On the Chiefs, there are only two wide receivers that I like for this showdown slate. The first is their rookie wideout, Xavier Worthy. Worthy has had a solid start to his career, he is leading all KC wide receivers with 407 yards and 33 receptions. He gets a good matchup against LAC’s Tarheeb Still who is allowing the most yards per route ran (1.05) of all LAC DBs and the second most fantasy points (.23). With how KC uses him in both running plays, averages 1 carry per game, and the passing game he has multiple opportunities to have a good DFS day.

The other wide receiver I am targeting for the Chiefs is DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has led the Chiefs in targets since joining them back in Week 8. He has 36 targets in six games (6/game) and is leading the team in receiving yards with 325 yards in those six games.

Tier 1: Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins

Tier 2: Juju Smith-Schuster

Punt: Justin Watson

Tight End

The Chargers have given up 546 receiving yards to tight ends (12th Fewest).
They are allowing 10.5 DK per game (8th Fewest).

Everyone knows how good Travis Kelce is and I will not say no to anyone who wants to roster him this week. But his number two Noah Gray has been one of the best tight ends over the past month. In the past three weeks, Gray has 12 receptions for 147 yards and four touchdowns. He has three fewer receptions than Kelce in that span but has more receiving yards and touchdowns. He is still clearly the number two tight end since he has 10 fewer targets in that span as well, but he is still averaging 5 targets a game and at $4400 on DraftKings, you can do a lot worse.

Tier 1:Travis Kelce

Tier 2: Noah Gray

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Ladd McConkey, Isiah Pacheco

FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, DeAndre Hopkins

FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Will Dissly, Noah Gray

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Ladd McConkey, Isiah Pacheco

DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, DeAndre Hopkins

DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Will Dissly, Xavier Worthy

DraftKings CPT Punt: Noah Gray, Cameron Dicker, Matthew Wright

Flex Tier 1:

Ladd McConkey
Isiah Pacheco
Justin Herbert
Patrick Mahomes
Travis Kelce
DeAndre Hopkins
Xavier Worthy
Will Dissly
Noah Gray
Cameron Dicker
Matthew Wright
Quentin Johnston

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

Chargers D/ST
Chiefs D/ST
Joshua Palmer
Kareem Hunt
Justin Watson
Gus Edwards
Tucker Fisk
Kimani Vidal
Same Perine
Jalen Reagor
Juju Smith-Schuster

Favorite prop for the game: Ladd McConkey Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

5 months ago 0 comments

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Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 14

David Jones 5 months ago

written by David Jones

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning Sunday Updates

Adding Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy to the pool. Moore should have an easier path based on primary coverage, but that doesnt mean Winston won’t hurl in to Jeudy at an alarming rate.
George Pickens is out. Calvin Austin and Van Jefferson are great value options.

Quarterback Rankings

Aidan O’Connell
Tua Tagovailoa
Jalen Hurts
Aaron Rodgers

Running Backs

Zach Charbonnet

He is your chalk du jour in Week 14 that you can not avoid. With Kenneth Walker being ruled a surprise out after the slate salaries locked, Charbonnett snuck in with a $4,800 salary. Arizona has been middle of the pack when defending the run this season and is certainly no one to avoid with an underpriced workhorse like Charbonnett, who will also get work in the passing game. When Walker was out earlier this season, ZC averaged 21.8 DK points per game over two games. Lock him in and move on.

Isaac Guerendo

Whenever Guerendo ($5,400) has gotten a decent workload, he has looked good. In Week 6, he rattled off 99 yards on ten carries (which included a 76-yard run), and in Week 8, he stacked up 88 all-purpose yards and a TD on 14 carries and three receptions. The matchup is good against the Bears. As of Week 13, the Bears are ranked 30^th in DVOA against the run.

Here is a juicy stat that MagicSportsGuy found digging and shot over to me. When filtering rushing stats among RBs with 40+ carries (Guerendo has 42), he is 2^nd (behind Barkley) in yards before contact. Also, 9.5% of his runs go for 10+ yards. This is elite. For example, Jahmyr Gibbs is 1^st with 11.2%). The Bears are dead last in yards before contact is allowed.

The one thing that worries me is the 49ers will still be without Trent Williams. That doesn’t help the run game, but at Guerendo’s salary and matchup, I will not overthink it. He is a great salary saver on a slate where spending down at RB is going to be the popular way to build, for good reason.

Braelon Allen

With Breece Hall ruled out, we get another super salary saver in Braelon Allon ($5,000). This guy had a stint of basically splitting carries with Hall until the Head Coaching change for New York. Allen is an extremely talented back and should get plenty of opportunities with how poorly the passing game has been for the Jets. He will also get a handful of receiving opportunities from Aaron Rodgers. Miami is 25^th in DVOA against the run while allowing 11 rushing and three receiving TDs over 12 games to the running back.

Saquon Barkley

He plays the Panthers. If he averages 167 rush yards per game over the next three games, he will break Dickerson’s record in 16 games. After the game against Carolina, he will know if that is a real possibility with the Steelers and Commanders on deck. Expect a huge dose of Barkley, but it is hard to pay up there with all the RB value we have. Then you must also worry about Jalen Hurts vulturing inside the 5-yard line with the tush push. I pulled the most rush attempts inside the five converted for a touchdown, and wouldn’t you know it, the Panthers are the worst on the slate. If that plays out again, that benefits Hurts, but if Barkley continues to break huge runs, that will not matter. Barkley would need to be the highest scorer on the slate for the play to make sense, but he certainly has a chance.

Others to consider: I have nothing bad to say about any of these guys.

Alvin Kamara
Bucky Irving
De’Von Achane

I don’t see myself getting away from these 7 RBs, even in my MME lineups. It is a three-RB week on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans

Mike Evans needs to average 96 yards per game for the rest of the season to continue his 1,000-yard season streak. He takes on the Las Vegas Raiders, 25^th in DVOA against receivers while being ranked 15^th against the WR1. With no other Tampa Bay Buc stepping up in the passing game aside from Cade Otton and Tampa all of a sudden in a position to steal the NFC South, Evans should get fed again. Despite Evans missing a month of playing time, the Buccaneers are still tied for the 4^th highest rate of touchdown conversions in the red zone. Evans, or Otton, will be the first look for Baker Mayfield when inside the 20-yard line.

Jakobi Meyers

He is a target monster taking on a secondary we have been picking on all season at only $5,600. Easy play.

Drake London

The Minnesota Vikings allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers (42 per game). This week, Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota to try and snap the Falcons out of a losing steak. That may or may not happen, but one thing is for sure: Cousins will sling it. Drake London was a fantasy darling the first half of the season, but now he is all of a sudden forgotten after poor QB play and a bye week. He maxed out his salary at $7,200 on DraftKings but has fallen back down to only $6,400. London is the highest-targeted wide receiver in the NFL inside the 20-yard line at 46.2%. That is insane. To be fair to the Vikings, they have the third-lowest red zone conversion rate at home in the NFL. Honestly, I just like the price and the potential game script for London.

Miami Dolphins

Sauce Gardner is doubtful. C.J. Mosley is done for the year. The Dolphins should be able to throw it, as well as run it here. With evaluating all the Dolphins (Achane, Hill, Waddle, Smith) salaries, you probably want at least one piece, if not a full-on stack. There are no primary matchups to target or avoid, as everything seems pretty wide open for Tua and the boys. Jonnu Smith is the easiest, most reliable play. Tyreek Hill is the mega upside play, and Waddle appears underpriced at $5,400. I will run at least one Tua stack and see where I land on the leaderboard.

Malik Nabers

He has the third-highest target rate in the NFL, behind Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and that has been sustained going through three different quarterbacks. He is in a great spot against the New Orleans secondary, he plays. If not, then there is going to be some Giants WR value opening up with guys like Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton. Both of which I almost wrote up at the beginning of the week, with Nabers projected in just due to how poorly the Saints can be at defending the pass.

George Pickens

Cleveland is ranked 27^th in DVOA against the pass. They are ranked 30^th against the WR1, allowing 85.2 yards per game (3^rd worst in the NFL). I have some concerns about it getting chippy with Greg Newsom, which could result in PI instead of a completion, but we are not dealing with a shadow situation here. Pickens also popped up on the injury report Friday with a hamstring injury, but that is more than likely just a rest day.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: DraftKings
Calvin Ridley: FanDuel

There is a $1,000 gap on the receivers on DraftKings and a $100 gap on FanDuel. If you want to play NWI, DraftKings is the spot.

We have to take a step back, like we did last week, and realize that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a legit offensive threat now. Don’t judge him on previous seasons, judge him on what you are seeing this season. He just keeps producing as the Titans WR2 with DeAndre Hopkins out of town. Now NWI takes on the Jaguars, who are ranked dead last against the WR2, while at the same time, he has been the most reliable WR2 in the game the past eight weeks. That is no longer a small sample size. His salary is up (but not high enough), but so is his production. If this guy’s name was different, he would be priced as a top-10 WR based on production alone.

Calvin Ridley is criminally underpriced at $5,700 on DraftKings. He and NWI both play on the outside the most, so technically, they both have a very similar matchup. I am good with sticking either Titans WR in your last WR slot, depending on whatever salary slot you are trying to fill.

Keenan Allen

Good if D.J. Moore is in. It would be great if D.J. Moore is out. $5,600 on DraftKings is just too low, especially with the injuries the 49ers are dealing with.

Jets

Seeing both Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson as cheap as they are is just odd. The same goes for Aaron Rodgers. Perhaps there is some merit to stacking them in the Milly Maker against Miami. With whispers of Aaron Rodgers getting benched and the Jets in the most literal must-win situation that exists in the NFL, perhaps we see one last gasp from the once-elite quarterback and his still-elite duo of Adams and Wilson. Breece Hall being ruled out doesn’t hurt either.

Jauan Jennings

The Bears let Jaylon Johnson handle the best receiver on the team when said receiver isn’t a primary slot receiver. Jauan Jennings runs the most out of the slot (45%) and is technically the WR2 behind Deebo Samuel (37% slot routes). Samuel should see Johnson coverage slightly more (not exclusively), and Jennings has a higher target rate and YPRR anyway. Chicago is ranked 31^st against the WR2, largely due to what I will call the “Johnson Effect. George Kittle should also benefit, maybe the most.

Others to consider:

Justin Jefferson
Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Tight End

Brock Bowers

The best tight end in the league, who has the highest average targets per game (9.4), takes on the 31^st-ranked defense against the position. Tampa allows the third most fantasy points to tight ends on the slate.

Jonnu Smith

He just keeps getting it done. That’s enough.

Others to consider:

George Kittle
T.J. Hockenson
Juwan Johnson

Others to consider:

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.

5 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Fourteen

Dave Gloeckner 5 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had another solid outing by going 3-1 in our plays from last week’s article. The Jets are the only team that prevented us from sweeping. So they are now on my banned list. Well at least banned for backing purposes. I also posted the Packers +3.5 last night hitting yet another Prime-Time game. Keep those post notifications on if you’re tailing as I’m usually waiting for late injury news before finalizing my plays. I will note, we had SF last Sunday night and that was trending nicely until McCaffrey’s injury. Therefore, overall, I was 4-2 in the past week which gets us to the magical 0.500 mark. Let’s keep this rolling as this time of year is the best time to make some extra cash.

Of note, the public went 11-5 last week. Of the 5 “non-public” plays, we were on four of them all weekend with Chicago (Thursday), LV (Friday), Arizona and Carolina. Road teams stole the show going 9-7 ATS in Week 13 with eight outright wins.

As for Survivor, the Broncos did what I expected and forced Jameis into critical turnovers. If it wasn’t for those pick 6’s, the Browns would have come out with a victory. So we breathe a sigh of relief.

NFL BETS WEEK 14 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 32-32-1, game bets only)

ATLANTA FALCONS +5.5 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

This is the 3rd straight week I’m betting against Minnesota. And if you’ve followed me the previous weeks, then you have some extra cash in your pockets. The Vikings are a very fashionable 10-2, but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. The market has adjusted and so have other teams. It’s shown, if you have a serviceable QB, you can score on the Vikings. Just ask Goff, Stafford, or Kyler Murray. Since October 6, which is the seven game streak I speak of, those teams have combined for 15 scoring drives against the vaunted Vikings D.

While Kirk Cousins showed his worst last week, throwing 4 INT’s, the Falcons rank as a top 10 offense in yards per game. According to DVOA they are 13th overall, ranking as the 10th best rushing offense and 13th best passing team. And then there’s a little bit of motivation. We saw it with Jerry Jeudy on MNF. While Cousins wasn’t traded, like Jeudy, he wasn’t overly pursued by the Vikings in FA.

The Falcons are at a very low point in their season, and one in which the public sees a vulnerability. I’ll take the return of Kirk and I expect the Falcons to play one of their best games of the season this weekend in Minnesota.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +12.5 at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Eagles are coming off of one of the best wins in the 2024 NFL season as they shut down the #1 offense in Baltimore to come away with a 24-19 road victory against one of the AFC’s best. Now they return home, after a two-game road trip where they beat two winning teams, to face one of the worst teams in the NFL. And this is sandwiched between a huge Keystone state showdown next week against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

As for the Panthers, since Bryce Young took over in Week 8, Carolina has been much more competitive and that’s due in part to an uptick in their offensive output. In all, the Panthers have covered four straight winning two of those outright as underdogs.

I fear a lack of motivation in Philly this weekend. We saw it when Cleveland and Jacksonville visited the Linc, with both those teams covering big numbers. And the Eagles have a propensity to allow late garbage time offense, with their last three opponents scoring a TD in the 4th quarter with less than 70 seconds left on the clock. I could definitely see a letdown and backdoor cover here in Philly.

ARIZONA CARDINALS -2.5 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

We backed the Seahawks two weeks ago in their matchup with Arizona. A critical pick-6 from Kyler Murray helped fuel that winning bet. And guess what, Seattle did it again last week as DT Leonard Williams returned an errant Aaron Rodgers pass 92 yards for a score. Take a step back even further, to Week 11, where the Seahawks pulled off a miraculous comeback in San Fran with a Geno Smith rushing TD with only 12 seconds left on the clock. To say it nicely, Seattle is playing with house money. And the house doesn’t lose that often.

On the other side, the Cardinals let one slip away last week in Minnesota. They kicked 5 FG’s and went 1 for 6 in the redzone. Similar to Seattle’s fluky takeaways that turned into scores, the Cardinals lack of production in the redzone is not sustainable (1 for their last 8). I like both these teams fortunes to turn this week as a Cardinals win will further muck-up the NFC West and make the division must watch TV down the stretch.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6.5 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS

The one public team I will back, for a 2nd straight week, is the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are still fuming from their loss in Cleveland two weeks ago. They have revenge on their minds. And as long as Winston is back there “Farve-ing” it, we have high volatility in this game. Meaning we could see a Browns win to a Pittsburgh blowout. I lean to the latter and look for the Steelers to keep up their winning ways this week at home. The other thing to consider, the Steelers were 3.5 to 4 point favorites in Cleveland two weeks ago. The spread is only a few points higher so I think we’re getting a discount here as a road to home flip usually costs 5 to 6 points.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

MIAMI DOLPHINS

If you still have the Dolphins in your pool, this is the week to use them. The Jets have quit. Their QB stinks. The Defense is worse. And there’s no real relief in sight.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

5 months ago 0 comments

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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: CLEVELAND BROWNS at DENVER BRONCOS

Dave Gloeckner 5 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 13 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a battle of classic AFC teams as the Browns head to Denver to take on the Broncos. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Browns and Broncos. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

A note about tonight’s game is that we have a high point spread and low total as Denver is a 6-point favorite with a game total at 42. Points are a premium tonight with two good defenses taking the field.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Running Back

It’s official, Nick Chubb is back. Even though he returned to action 5 weeks ago, last Thursday was the first game where he flashed fantasy dominance again. Chubb saw 66% of the snaps to Jerome Ford’s 34%. And he received 21 of the 26 touches to RB’s (81%). In the week prior to last, Chubb got just 30% of the snaps. Last week’s game was his highest snap count and touches of the season and we can think his production will ultimately stay here or increase slightly.

Which makes him a good target on tonight’s showdown as Denver has allowed the 15th most fantasy points to RB’s this season. Their advanced metrics are solid, showing up as 4th in rush defense DVOA and 9th in rushing defense rating. But the issue is in pass coverage as they’ve allowed the 2nd most receptions to RB’s (68), 4th most yards (502) and 2nd most receiving TD’s (4).

Chubb has seen only 7 targets and 3 catches this season. So he might not make a huge dent in the passing game but he will get the goal line carries. So keep him in mind tonight.

But also consider Jerome Ford as he’s more of the 3rd down back who does have 26 catches on the season. If the Browns get behind early, the game script could call for more Ford than Chubb.

Tier 1: Nick Chubb

Tier 2: Jerome Ford

Punt:

Wide Receiver

Denver CB Patrick Surtain III is one of the top defensive backs in the league. Which is why the Broncos allow the 2nd least fantasy points to WR’s this season. Coming into Week 12, Patrick Surtain III has the highest rating for any DB in the league according to PFF. Opposite Surtain is Riley Moss who is a significant drop off and one you can target as he’s made just 8 pass breakups and 1 INT on the season while registering 51st overall DB according to PFF.

There is a story here in Denver for one of Cleveland’s WR’s. Former first round pick Jerry Jeudy returns to Denver who traded him away last season. And he’s been on a heater of late, averaging 6 catches per game over the last four games. In those games, he’s received an average of 9 targets. Important note here is Jameis Winston was the starting QB in all of those contests. And he may even know a trick or two on how to beat Surtain. So Jeudy is fully in play tonight based on story and recent play.

Elijah Moore is a top target for Winston too and he primarily works out of the slot adding value to his potential tonight against a tough Denver D.

With Cedric Tillman out, rookie WR Jamari Thrash will likely get the 3rd receiver role. The 5th round pick has only 1 catch on the season but that’s been in limited snaps. Thrash was all All-ACC 2nd team receiver in 2023 for the Louisville Cardinals. He has solid speed and could be very valuable at only a $1000 salary.

Tier 1: Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore

Tier 2: Jamari Thrash

Punts: Jaelon Darden

Tight End

David Njoku disappointed in the snow last week. He missed several catches, including a TD, that could have helped fantasy owners. In total, he had just one catch on five targets.

But the second of those numbers is key as it was tied for 2nd on the team last week. Jameis will continue to feed Njoku the ball and the Broncos are allowing the 20th most points to TE’s this year,

The other factor is backup TE Jordan Akins saw the field a good bit last week and reeled in three of four targets. So he should be considered in your player pool as well.

Tier 1: David Njoku

Tier 2: Jordan Akins

Punt/Fadeable:

DENVER BRONCOS

Running Back

At this point, does anyone really know what the Broncos will do at RB other than HC Sean Payton? In Week 12, Javonte Williams saw 56% of the snaps but just 50% of the touches. And Jaleel McLaughlin outpaced Audric Estime with 7 touches to 3. In Week 11 it was a similar workload for Williams, but Estime out-touched McLaughlin 9 to 4 in that contest. And then we look back at Week 10 and Estime got 45% of the snaps and 76% of the touches when Denver took on KC.

So in a recap, Estime went from leader in the clubhouse 3 weeks ago to seeing just 7% of the snaps and 15% of the touches last week.

Cleveland allows the 8th most rushing yards per game in the league at 130.6. But they’ve done a good job covering RB’s in the passing game allowing the second least receptions to ball carriers on ZERO receiving TD’s.

This is tough spot to favor anyone. Williams is getting 10+ touches the last 2 weeks and was the big winner on their Thursday night showdown back when they played the Saints. But if I trust anyone, it’s Williams. The issue I foresee is Payton flipping back to one of his other RB’s if they get a hot hand. There’s lots of risk here no matter who you play (if any).

Tier 1: Javonte Williams

Tier 2: Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime

Wide Receiver

This is where we get to the good part of this game. Cleveland allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing WR’s. And their advanced metrics show it could be worse as they have the 2nd worst coverage rating according to PFF. DVOA has the Browns ranked 24th against the pass.

The Denver passing game has been electric of late, especially WR Courtland Sutton. The Broncos #1 WR is the most expensive player on the slate and that’s for good reason. In his last 5 games, he is averaging 7 catches and 93 yards per outing. Combined with his 3 TD’s, that’s good for 22.2 fantasy points per game.

The Browns have only one DB ranked in PFF’s top 100, Denzel Ward. Which is a big reason why they have been attacked regularly through the air.

My second favorite receiver in Denver is Devaughn Vele. The big bodied rookie receiver from Utah is a matchup problem. He’s also on a good streak recording double digit fantasy points in three straight outings.

Denver will rotate their other receivers based on scheme. We saw Mims get 4 targets last week making him an intriguing option for being the lowest salaried of the group. He’s brought in 9 catches in the last 3 games for 106 yards and a TD.

The weather looks calm in Denver tonight with a game time temp around 42 degrees F and light winds. Very good throwing conditions for Nix and his WR’s.

Tier 1: Courtland Sutton

Tier 2: Devaughn Vele

Cheap Options: Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims Jr

Tight End

Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull have a combined 19 catches this season for 254 yards. The Broncos just don’t use the TE much in the passing game. I’d avoid this position unless you had to fill something in. I’d prefer the cheaper Broncos WR’s, such as Mims Jr.

Tier 1: Adam Trautman

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Bo Nix or Courtland Sutton. The QB’s are both in play as Winston and Nix will look to throw the ball downfield. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton

FDMVP Tier 2: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, Jerry Jeudy

FDMVP Tier 3: David Njoku, Javonte Williams

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Nick Chubb

DK CPT Tier 2: Jameis Winston, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy

DK CPT Tier 3: Javonte Williams, Devaughn Vele,

DK CPT Punt: Jerome Ford, Broncos D

Best Rules for the slate:

The weather looks to be nice for a December night game in Denver. Decent temps and low winds could lead to a happy passing attack.
I don’t always lock in the top salaried player at CPT, but the Browns pass D is so bad that we have to lock in Sutton as our preferred top scoring player tonight. Reminds me of Mixon against the Cowboys a few weeks ago on MNF.
If the game script presents itself, I do like the Browns passing game tonight. Playing Nix and Sutton then mixing in Winston, plus 2 receivers and then potentially a cheap RB (Ford, McLaughlin) is one of my preferred ways to go.
The Denver running game is a mystery. But I still prefer Javonte Williams over the other options. McLaughlin is my second favorite based on his recent uptick in snaps and touches.
Devaughn Vele is an impressive rookie. I will play him tonight and would be afraid to put him in a lineup with Sutton.
Jerry Jeudy has been playing well with Winston at QB. And he has some revenge on his mind as the Broncos traded him away.
Winston can give the ball away at a high rate. Denver’s D is in play. At a 42-point total, their D could even be considered in CPT spot.
Consider a kicker with the team you have more players on. If someone gets down, they will avoid kicking FG’s.
Keep an eye on Jamari Thrash. He likely gets a start tonight as Cedrick Tillman is out with a concussion.
As far as cheaper options in the Denver passing game, I prefer Mims to Franklin. He’s a deep threat that they should give one downfield chance to.
Jerome Ford could be a hero of this slate if the Browns are down and have to pass almost every down.

Favorite prop for the game: Jerome Ford over 1.5 receptions (-165 BetMGM)

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

5 months ago 0 comments

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Sunday Night Showdown Strategy: San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills

Ivan Herrera 5 months ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Week 13 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the 49ers take on the Bills at Orchard Park in Orchard Park, New York. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

San Francisco 49ers

Running Back

The Bills have given up 1069 rushing yards (16th Most in NFL)
They have given up 558 receiving yards to running backs (Most)
Giving up 28.5 DK to running backs (3rd Most)

I am locking in Christian McCaffrey in all my lineups for Showdown this week, he is my favorite non-quarterback on the slate. With Purdy dealing with an injury and being listed as Questionable for the game, I expect the Niners to use McCaffrey more this week. The Bill’s defense is set up for McCaffrey to be successful, they are allowing the most receiving yards which is something McCaffrey excels at as he has the fifth most receiving yards by a running back the last two years even with missing portions of the year with injuries. In his three games back from injury McCaffrey has 132 receiving yards and 149 rushing yards. The only worrying part about McCaffrey is his struggles finding the end zone, hehas failed to score in his last four regular season games.

Before Week 10 Jordan Mason would be an amazing play as he was near the top in rushing yards while McCaffrey was out. But now that CMC has returned I want nothing to do with Mason. He has played a total of 14 snaps (8%) since McCaffrey has returned and I can’t see any route for him to see an uptick in workload unless CMC suffers another injury or this game gets ugly early.

The one “running back” I would think about using from the Niners besides CMC is Kyle Juszczyk. He is not a player I would force into a lineup but if you have the salary to plug him in as a last man I would strongly consider it. He has played at least 37% of the snaps every game this season and has found the end zone once. He is a clear punt but someone I would have if playing a lot of lineups.

Tier 1: Christian McCaffrey

Tier 2: Kyle Juszczyk

FADE: Jordan Mason

Wide Receiver

The Bills have allowed 1441 yards to opposing wide receivers (4th Fewest).
They are giving up 29.8 DK (8th Fewest).

The Bills have been great against opposing wide receivers in fantasy this season. So while I do like two of the Niners wide receivers, they are behind McCaffrey in my list of who I want to build with. My main wider receiver target for the Niners is going to be Jauan Jennings. He leads the Niners with 65 targets (7.2/game) and is only behind tight end Kittle for the team lead in receptions and yards. With Aiyuk being out he has stepped up as a solid receiving option for Purdy. Jennings will also get the easiest matchup of the top three Niner wide receivers. He should see Taron Johnson for the majority of the game. Johnson is getting up a team-high in yards (1.5) and fantasy (.33) per route defended. Jennings is the leader for both on the Niners with 2.49 yards and .53 fantasy points.

The other Niner wide receiver that I like for Showdown is Deebo Samuel. Samuel is averaging 6.1 touches per game thanks to being used in the run game as well as the passing game. He has struggled to reach the end zone which is why I do prefer Jennings over him. He should have to deal with Rasul Douglas during the game who has been ok this season, heis allowing .22 fantasy points and .9 yards per route defended, meanwhile, Samuel is averaging 1.86 yards and .33 fantasy points.

I am just about fading Ricky Pearsall. He has had some good games this season but his matchup against Christian Benford is not one I want to attack. Benford is tied with Patrick Surtain for the lowest fantasy points allowed with .12 per route and is only behind Surtain in yards allowed only allowing .02 more. There are better options in the lower midrange than Pearsall.

Tier 1: Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel

Punts/Fades: Ricky Pearsall, Chris Conley

Tight End

The Bills have given 491 receiving yards to tight ends (9th Fewest).
They are giving up 14.6 DK (7th Most).

George Kittle is one of my favorite Niner players for Showdown. He leads the team in every stat except for targets where he is only six behind Jennings. With the weather looking like it will be an issue for deeper shots Kittle can make use ofshorter routes to help move the ball down the field. He’ll act as the wide receiver three with Pearsall having such a difficult matchup.

The only other option for the Niners at tight end is Eric Saubert who isn’t viable for fantasy. Saubert has only seen seven targets this season with only two coming after Week 3. Unless you are maxing out the 150s he is a complete fade.

Tier 1: George Kittle

Punt/Fade: Eric Saubert

Buffalo Bills

Running Back

SF is giving up 24.5 DK per game (12th Most).
They have allowed 948 rushing yards (10th Fewest).
They have allowed 379 receiving yards (14th Most).

Despite playing fewer snaps than Ty Johnson against the Chiefs in their last game, this is still the James Cook show in Buffalo. Cook played six fewer snaps than Johnson against the Chiefs but he was still the most productive running back rushing nine times for two touchdowns. SF has been good against running backs this season, but just like the Bills, they have struggled to stop running backs from catching the ball out of the backfield. They are allowing 4.6 receptions for 34.5 to running backs and Cook is averaging 2.5 receptions for 18.2 yards. I’m expecting a lot more check-downs with the potential of terrible weather.

As for the other two running backs for Buffalo, I am not the biggest fan of either for Showdown. Johnson was given the most snaps last game and he did nothing and Ray Davis doesn’t play enough snaps when Cook is active. He has not played above 31% of the Bills snaps when Cook is playing. But if you are looking for a punt under 3K Davis can work. Like I said he doesn’t get too many snaps but at that price, he doesn’t need too much.

Tier 1: James Cook

FADE/Punt: Ray Davis, Ty Johnson

Wide Receiver

The 49ers have given up 1501 receiving yards to wide receivers (6th Fewest).
They are giving up 31.1 DK to receivers (10th Fewest).

Just like with the Niners, there are two main wide receivers that I want to focus on for Showdown. The first one and my favorite is Khalil Shakir. He leads the Bills in every statistical category except touchdowns where he is only one behind leaders Hollins and Coleman. On top of being the best wide receiver for the Bills, Shakir is also getting the best matchup against Deommodore Lenoir. Lenior has given up a team-high YPRR of 1.12 and an FPRR of .23, both of which Shakir leads the Bills in with 2.34 YPRR and .5 FPRR.

The second Bills wide receiver that I am targeting is Amari Cooper. There is not much difference between his matchup against Yiadom and Coleman’s matchup against Charvarius Ward, but I have more faith in Cooper than I do the rookie Coleman. Cooper is only averaging 3.3 targets in his first three games since being traded from Cleveland but with the bye week, he should see an uptick with his extra week of practice.

I still like Coleman this week, his price being the third lowest of the top Bills wide receivers is great. He has been averaging four targets and 2.4 receptions per game so he is a good midrange play if you can’t get to Cooper.

Tier 1: Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper

Tier 2: Keon Coleman

Punt: Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins

Tight End

The 49ers have given up 384 receiving yards to tight ends (2nd Fewest).
They are allowing 9.6 DK per game (6th Fewest).

The Bills will be without their starting tight end Dalton Kincaid against the Niners so Dawson Knox will get his second start of the year. Before the bye, Knox started against the Chiefs where he saw six targets and finished the game with four receptions for 40 yards. I like Knox at his price, but he is not a priority for me. With how good the Niners have been against the tight ends I would rather prioritize players like Cook and Shakir instead. But that is not to say I wouldn’t have lineups with him, he is priced just below the kickers who might have difficulty kicking if the weather forecast stays the way it is projected.

Backup tight ends; Quintin Morris and Zach Davidson are a complete fade for me. Neither has had any significant work this season even in the game Kincaid was out. In SE and 3max they shouldn’t be near your lineups.

Tier 1: Dawson Knox

Punt/Fade: Quintin Morris and Zach Davidson

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey

FanDuel MVP Tier 2: James Cook, Jauan Jennings, Brock Purdy

FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Khalil Shakir

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey

DraftKings CPT Tier 2: James Cook, Jauan Jennings, Brock Purdy

DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Khalil Shakir

DraftKings CPT Punt: Dawson Knox

Flex Tier 1:

Josh Allen
Christian McCaffrey
James Cook
Jauan Jennings
Brock Purdy
Deebo Samuel
George Kittle
Khalil Shakir
Amari Cooper
Keon Coleman

Flex Tier 2/Punts:

Kyle Juszczyk
49ers D/ST
Bills D/ST
Jake Moody
Tyler Bass
Ricky Pearsall
Curtis Samuel
Mack Hollins
Ty Johnson
Ray Davis
Jordan Mason
Quintin Morris

Favorite prop for the game: Christian McCaffrey Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

5 months ago 0 comments

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Sunday’s Best NFL DFS Core Plays: GPP Building Blocks – Week 13

David Jones 5 months ago

written by David Jones

*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays

Sunday Updates

Adding Chase Brown to RBs

Adding Even Engram to tight ends

Quarterback Rankings

Matthew Stafford: favorite mid-tier GPP QB; see Ram’s receiver paragraph
C.J. Stroud: 5% owned and love Collins and Dell
Jalen Hurts: The Ravens’ pass D is terrible and might have Smith back. I am seeing 3% owned right now. That can’t be right, can it?
Justin Herbert: He could easily lead the league in passing attempts
Baker Mayfield: 3% owned vs the Carolina Panthers

Running Backs

Los Angeles Chargers

Is Gus Edwards explosive? Nope. Is he $4,300 on DraftKings? Yep. He will be the main beneficiary (aside from the Chargers pass catchers) with J.K. Dobbins being ruled out against the Atlanta Falcons. The Dirty Birds aren’t great at stopping the run, and all Edwards has to do is not much at all. I am not sure he even has to score at that price tag. His low salary allows you to fit a starting RB and jam in a ton of studs. We saw someone take down the Milly maker just two weeks ago with Audric Estime at a similar salary when he technically had a “dud” game. If Edwards scores, you will have to have him. The Falcons allow 22 fantasy points per game to the position while allowing only three rushing TDs and three receiving TDs to running backs.

Rookie Kimani Vidal also has my attention. I expect him to be the pass-catching back, not Hassan Haskins. The Chargers coaching staff have been teasing a larger role for the Marietta, GA native against the Atlanta Falcons in the press this week. If the Falcons can get a lead early, we could see more Vidal in the second half in somewhat of a two-minute drill roll. Vidal was the main beneficiary when Gus Edwards was out earlier in the season. He would get a handful of touches a game and also caught a 30-yard TD pass from Herbert. He costs $4,000 on DraftKings and should be used in Milly Maker formats only.

Jonathan Taylor

In Week 12, the New England Patriots were the worst team defending the run (32^nd) via DVOA. On the season, they are ranked 30^th in DVOA against the run. They are allowing 24 fantasy points per game and 15 total touchdowns (rushing and passing) to the position in just 12 games. With arguably the Colts WR1 (Josh Downs) out, perhaps there will be more focus on running the ball, although I can not say that has been the case in the past. Look for Taylor to bounce back from just 11 carries in a terrible game script last week and get closer to 20 this week.

Bucky Irving or Rachaad White note

Everyone knows the Panthers are the team to target with running backs (and every skill position), so I don’t think I have to clarify at this point in the season. I certainly get the appeal of rostering one of the two main Bucs RBs. Bucky Irving had the better fantasy day last week, largely due to him catching 6 of 6 passes from Baker Mayfield and also scoring. Both he and White got 12 rushing touches. Irving is the more explosive back, yet White has scored 6 times in the past 5 weeks. The issue you run into when rostering the Bucs RBs is that they are all involved, all can score, yet none of them get the volume to rely on with consistency. Irving is best suited for cash games, while White could be worth a stab in GPPs.

Alvin Kamara

If you are fading Taysom Hill, you should certainly highly consider Alvin Kamara in what could be a shootout game. Kamara is game script proof (unless Taysom Hill drops 40 again). He will run the ball more than Hill; he almost always out targets him. The only issue is he takes up a premium RB spot. That said, I don’t love many RBs this week.

Derrick Henry

No one is playing King Henry this week. The Eagles have been pretty shut down against receivers lately so I do not have that much interest in Lamar Jackson or his pass catchers. These are the games Henry was brought to the Ravens for. While the Eagles have been good against the run, they are not better than Henry with a full head of steam. He needs to find open space, or the goal line one time to get in the endzone and stack up 100+ yards.

Others to consider:

Joe Mixon: If I didn’t have a piece of the Houston pass attack, I would prioritize getting Joe Mixon. The Jaguars allow the second most fantasy points to RBs on the season while allowing 15 total TDs (rushing and receiving).

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp and the Los Angeles Rams

Last week, I targeted the Bears with Sam Darnold and the Vikings’ pass attack. Besides his highest-priced option, Justin Jefferson, Darnold exceeded value and supported all of his pass catchers (tight end included). I made the point that the Bears corners gave the first and second most YPRC on the slate, and their primary matchups were Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor, both of which scored touchdowns. This week, the two worst corners on the slate that give up the first and second most YPRC are on the Saints. Their primary matchups are Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson. To be transparent about how the Rams run their offense, Kupp, Robinson, and Nacua move all over the field, so pivoting to Nacua, from Robison, isn’t “bad.” Both Kupp and Nacua have the first and second-highest target percentage on the slate. The highest targeted corner on the entire slate is Ugo Amadi, who covers the slot almost exclusively. Cooper Kupp runs 67% of his routes out of the slot. This is an amazing matchup for Kupp, and you can be damn sure that Matt Stafford knows it. I will be making plenty of Rams stacks this week with a low-owned Matthew Stafford.

Tank Dell and Nico Collins

Nico Collins has the highest target percentage receiver on the slate besides the Rams duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. He takes on a Jaguars team that is dead last in DVOA against receivers. They are ranked 13^th against the WR1 (Nico Collins) and dead last against the WR2 (Tank Dell). Dell is a Daytona Beach native. I happen to remember that last time he played there, he called it a “friends and family game.” He went on to put up 145 yards and a TD, although a chunk of it came on a broken coverage play.

Ladd McConkey

Justin Herbert is playing the best football of his career, and the Chargers run game is questionable, with J.K. Dobbins hitting IR. McConkey is by far the best pass catcher Herbert has. He leads the team in target % (21.4%) and yards per route run. He runs 73% of his routes out of the slot, which will directly avoid A.J. Terrell. His salary of $6,100 is fair for a guy who could easily see ten targets.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

He has 6 TDs in the past 7 weeks and is still only $4,300 on DraftKings. He will see plenty of Benjamin St-Juste, who is allowing a bottom 10 YPRC on the slate. Washington’s defense is improved, but they still ranked 30^th against the WR1 (Calvin Ridley) and 21^st against the WR2 (NWI).

Best Pivot: Calvin Ridley

Mike Evans

I played him last week with nearly no ownership, and if the Buccaneers hadn’t blown out the Giants so badly, I feel very confident he would have had a big week. The Tampa run game should once again be able to enforce their will against the Panthers, but $6,700 for such an elite talent like Mike Evans is too hard to ignore. I will have plenty in GPPs and have zero issues playing him in a main lineup if you fade the other Tampa skill players.

AJ Brown Note

If Smith is out, he and Dallas Goedert will be difficult to ignore. Brown has the highest YPRR on the slate, taking on a terrible Ravens secondary.

Other Good Options:

Calvin Ridley
Terry McLaurin
Drake London
George Pickens
Michael Pittman
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Zay Flowers
Brian Thomas Jr.
Alec Pierce

Favorite Values

Adonai Mitchell
Marquez Valdez-Scantling
David Moore: Hard to ignore coming off ten targets at $3,500 for a team that will likely be trailing and doesn’t have a tight end

Tight End

Taysom Hill

His price shot way up, but you are still playing Superflex but rostering a QB/RB/WR/TE at the most unreliable position on the slate. Saint’s OC, Klint Kubiak, was quoted as saying, “We are ready for Taysom Hill to play every play of the game” when asked about his plans with Hill going forward. This is just coach speak, but also somewhat encouraging with all the injuries the Saints have had to persevere through. Last week, Hill played a season-high 55% of snaps while running the ball 7 times and catching 8 of 10 targets. I would play the rushing attempts alone at the TE position. If you fade Hill, the best pivot is Alvin Kamara. He is also a guy who can get ten targets a game while also being used as a RB1. The issue is he is $2,700 more and takes up an RB spot.

TJ Hockenson

Great call out last week on the WinDaily livestream that more production should be headed Hockenson’s way with Josh Oliver being ruled out. Oliver had taken 56% of snaps the previous week, while Hockenson had 48% in his third game back. Last week, we saw Hockenson shoot up to 68% while Johnny Mundt picked up the slack behind him. The Cardinals have been solid against the TE, only allowing a single receiving TD this season, but I still like the salary of Hockenson ($4,400 DK) coming off a 7-reception game. It is also worth noting Justin Jefferson was covered up last week, so Sam Darnold had to find somewhere else to throw the ball.

Dallas Goedert

I like him regardless of DeVonta Smith’s plays, but he gets better if the receiver is out. The Ravens ranked 23rd in DVOA against the TE, and more passes should be funneled his way if Smith is out.

Others to consider:

Mark Andrews: $3,900 is too cheap
Will Dissly
The Pittsburgh tight ends are in a good spot, but Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington are splitting snaps. It is hard to pin down. You can consider in large field GPP if multi-entering.

Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.

5 months ago 0 comments

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Green Bay Packers

Seattle Seahawks

NFL BETS WEEK 15 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 35-34-1, game bets only)

DENVER BRONCOS -3.5 vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

NEW YORK JETS -3.5 at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

CAROLINA PANTHERS -2.5 vs DALLAS COWBOYS

CLEVELAND BROWNS +5 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): Green Bay Packers -3 (Sunday Night Football)

SURVIVOR PICK

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

DALLAS COWBOYS

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

FanDuel

DraftKings

Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs

NFL BETS WEEK 14 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 32-32-1, game bets only)

ATLANTA FALCONS +5.5 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

CAROLINA PANTHERS +12.5 at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

ARIZONA CARDINALS -2.5 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6.5 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD

SURVIVOR PICK

MIAMI DOLPHINS

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

DENVER BRONCOS

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

FanDuel

DraftKings

San Francisco 49ers

Buffalo Bills

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