NFL Props

Ring the bell and strap in for the N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7.2! To say we’ve picked up some serious momentum would be an understatement after smashing another ten bagger last week. That’s two weeks in a row we’ve had a ten to one come through! Most cappers might not take down a single (+1000) in a season, let alone two in a row! Today’s play is a bit more conservative and only for a single unit, but that’s one of my personal keys to sustaining profit in sport markets; Eliminate the big loss. If you can relegate your game to only three of the four outcomes (Small win, small loss & big win) you will find yourself on a sure climb to profitability. I’m not going to tilt and chase unrealistic expectations on my own small sample. Remember, past performance is no indication of future success.

Make sure you don’t miss a thing throughout the week by checking my author page periodically https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/

OF COURSE ALL THE GOLD MEMBERS KNOW YOU CAN GET ME ON THE WINDAILYSPORTS SLACK CHANNEL ANYTIME FOR MORE TAILORED HELP, INCLUDING ADVANCED RISK THEORY AND ACCESS TO MORE OF MY PERSONAL PLAYS.

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7.2

Leonard Fournette, RB Jacksonville Jaguars

Breakdown

Fournette is 3rd in the NFL in total offensive snap percentage (91.4%), behind only CMC and Leveon Bell. He’s a true three down back, and has at least 20 carries the past three games (two of which went for +100 yds). Last week’s poor yardage performance & YPC should be attributed to the Saints’ stout run defense (78.0 RuYd/Gm), something that is not likely in the cards for this weekend. The Bengals haven’t defended the run well whatsoever this year:

• Rushing Yards Allowed : 31st (396)
• Rushing Yards Per Game : 30th (126.5)

I think regardless of game script, the stars are aligned for a big game from Leonard. Let’s take a look and see if it’s worth betting up the ladder.

I’m not a fan here of the limited payout as we go up in production. My initial instinct says to bet one unit, pay the minimal juice for 88+ (-114) and not be greedy. I could see splitting that unit and betting 0.25u on the 98+ (+108) depending on risk tolerance and confidence level.

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy. It all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7.2

John L. prepares this article in his personal capacity.  The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily.  All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only.  Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use.  All information is provided on an as-is basis.

As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.

Ring the bell and strap in for the N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7.1! To say we’ve picked up some serious momentum would be an understatement after smashing another ten bagger last week. That’s two weeks in a row we’ve had a ten to one come through! Most cappers might not take down a single (+1000) in a season, let alone two in a row! Today’s play is a bit more conservative and only for a single unit, but that’s one of my personal keys to sustaining profit in sport markets; Eliminate the big loss. If you can relegate your game to only three of the four outcomes (Small win, small loss & big win) you will find yourself on a sure climb to profitability. I’m not going to tilt and chase unrealistic expectations on my own small sample. Remember, past performance is no indication of future success.

**TNF Update: Unfortunate loss of a unit on N.Fant. The TE had a 73.5% conversion rate coming in, so he should’ve only needed five looks to get our 3 grabs. Well, we did get the expected volume spike (5 Tgt), and it still only resulted in a single catch. Such is life.**

Make sure you don’t miss a thing throughout the week by checking my author page periodically https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/

OF COURSE ALL THE GOLD MEMBERS KNOW YOU CAN GET ME ON THE WINDAILYSPORTS SLACK CHANNEL ANYTIME FOR MORE TAILORED HELP, INCLUDING ADVANCED RISK THEORY AND ACCESS TO MORE OF MY PERSONAL PLAYS.

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7.1

Josh Jacobs, RB Oakland Raiders

Breakdown

I often highlight usage as a basis for my identification process and Jacobs checks all the boxes there. He has twice as many snaps as any other RB, and has over 70% of the team’s carries this season. Josh has at least 79 rushing yards in four of five games this year, and I expect that to continue. I think we’re getting incredible value here; A (+108) pay on an 80% occurrence. We can’t forget the game he just had against the staunch Bear defense, torching them for 26/123/2.

The Packers are the 8th worse defense in the league in terms of rush yards allowed, just over 107 per game. Considering they’re 16th in attempts against (21.3 per game), we see a picture of inefficiency emerge for GB. For the record, they’re allowing 4.9 yards per carry, also 7th worse in the NFL. The Raiders have been at their most effective when using Jacobs to control the pace of play, and even though the Packers are hobbled I doubt OAK will be taking that for granted.

I’m not crazy about the payout value up the ladder here, until we get to 106+ RuYd. For the sake of transparency, I do already have a full unit on the O79.5 RuYd, and I’m considering another. If I do decide to add to my unit position, a percentage consideration for O105.5 RuYd is absolutely in play. There’s still time before game time so feel free to hit me up on slack or on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg for the latest strategic plan.

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy. It all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7.1

John L. prepares this article in his personal capacity.  The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily.  All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only.  Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use.  All information is provided on an as-is basis.

As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.

Ring the bell and strap in for the N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 6.2! Last week was what it’s all about! The short season thus far had been mostly flat until week 5, and we can only take what the market gives us. A week ago we identified Leveon Bell & Aaron Jones for receiving props, and even to maximize bets on Jones’ catches up the ladder (pictured below). The result could not have been better! That tremendous win has the season well into the black and should serve as another reminder as to the importance of risk management. You must stay in the game if you intend to profit from it. How many other cappers are hitting a (+400) & (+1039) in the same weekend? C’mon!

Make sure you don’t miss a thing throughout the week by checking my author page periodically https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/

OF COURSE ALL THE GOLD MEMBERS KNOW YOU CAN GET ME ON THE WINDAILYSPORTS SLACK CHANNEL ANYTIME FOR MORE TAILORED HELP, INCLUDING ADVANCED RISK THEORY AND ACCESS TO MORE OF MY PERSONAL PLAYS.

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 6.2

Dede Westbrook, WR JAX Receiving Yards

Breakdown

JAX has been a surprise on offense, especially through the air. They’re in the top 14 in pass attempts, pass completions and passing yards. Conversely, the Saints are 22nd in passing yards allowed; The major base for this prop bet.

Westbrook is ingrained in the offense, having at least five catches in every game but one. He projects to matchup with P.J. Williams in the slot, who has just been used and abused this year. Out of the slot Williams has been targeted 22 times, resulting in 16 grabs for 209 yards (+114 QBR Allowed). The Jaguars know they have tough opponent in the Saints who have struggled vs WRs; allowing just over 40 fantasy points a game to the position (6th worse in the NFL). We know Gardner Minshew (and that awesome mustache) will be looking to open up space for Fournette to run against a New Orleans defense that has been stingy defending ground attacks.

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy. It all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 6.2

John L. prepares this article in his personal capacity.  The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily.  All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only.  Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use.  All information is provided on an as-is basis.

As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.

Ring the bell and strap in for the N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 6.1! Last week was what it’s all about! The short season thus far had been mostly flat until week 5, and we can only take what the market gives us. A week ago we identified Leveon Bell & Aaron Jones for receiving props, and even to maximize bets on Jones’ catches up the ladder (pictured below). The result could not have been better! That tremendous win has the season well into the black and should serve as another reminder as to the importance of risk management. You must stay in the game if you intend to profit from it. How many other cappers are hitting a (+400) & (+1039) in the same weekend? C’mon!

Make sure you don’t miss a thing throughout the week by checking my author page periodically https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/

OF COURSE ALL THE GOLD MEMBERS KNOW YOU CAN GET ME ON THE WINDAILYSPORTS SLACK CHANNEL ANYTIME FOR MORE TAILORED HELP, INCLUDING ADVANCED RISK THEORY AND ACCESS TO MORE OF MY PERSONAL PLAYS.

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 6.1

Chris Carson, RB Seattle Seahawks Rushing Yards

Breakdown

Carson has dominated touches lately, leading all SEA backs by far with 76% & 82% usage over the last two weeks. That has translated into 22 & 27 carries, each resulting in over one hundred rushing yards. We can couple that elite usage with the fact the Browns are 24th in rushing attempts against and 30th in rushing yards allowed (586) to get to what should be an easy cash on this prop.

Vegas projects a close game; SEA is favored by two and a half points. The game script should definitely bode well for some Carson love deep into the fourth quarter of this game.

I’m not crazy about the pay up the ladder so I’m going to hit this bet straight. I will determine the exact amount once I have all my plays in order. I always keep a maximum risk for any given weekend.

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy. It all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 6.1

John L. prepares this article in his personal capacity.  The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily.  All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only.  Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use.  All information is provided on an as-is basis.

As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.

Ring the bell and strap in for the N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 6! Last week was what it’s all about! The short season thus far had been mostly flat until week 5, and we can only take what the market gives us. A week ago we identified Leveon Bell & Aaron Jones for receiving props, and even to maximize bets on Jones’ catches up the ladder (pictured below). The result could not have been better! That tremendous win has the season well into the black and should serve as another reminder as to the importance of risk management. You must stay in the game if you intend to profit from it. How many other cappers are hitting a (+400) & (+1039) in the same weekend? C’mon!

Make sure you don’t miss a thing throughout the week by checking my author page periodically https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 6

Mike Evans, WR TB – Reception Props

Breakdown

Evans is coming off a bad game where he hung a zero getting followed around by Lattimore all day. That zero means absolutely nothing to me, except for the fact it has presented a nice buying opportunity for us. That matchup was poor, and is irrelevant when breaking down this week. Evans projects to go up against James Bradberry who’s giving up four inches and over twenty pounds to the big wideout.

Evans’ usage has remained at elite levels, taking 97% of the snaps last week and over 90% for the season. His three targets last week were a season low, but he has maintained a 22.9% target share for the season; Another elite tally. Let’s not forget that not only are the Bucs heading home, but Mike had racked up 30 targets over the three previous games.

The Panthers are 31st in plays allowed, 25th in attempts and 20th in completions allowed. They’re also dead last in completions allowed to WRs (79). The surface stats are there for some volume passing on Sunday.

Betting Prop Exchange Week 6

There are several ways to attack this play, and none are right or wrong, providing they fit into your written risk strategy. Remember, it’s the bet that pays that always feels like the right move in retrospect. Since we cannot control outcomes, we will control our own behavior. The first and most obvious strategy is to attack the plus odds and bet Over 5.5 Rec (+141) straight with a unit for a nice payoff.

Prop plays do provide opportunities to ”climb the ladder” and get exponential payouts for extra catches. Here’s a couple of examples of segmented wagers using these specific lines, and how it affects the final outcome.

The one thing they both have in common is locking a nice percentage gain (+20%) when we achieve the baseline of six grabs. Beyond that, my best advice is to play around with the payouts depending on your own risk tolerance. Get creative.

Before I determine my strategy, I need to finish combing the board for potential plays. Stay tuned.

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 6

John L. prepares this article in his personal capacity.  The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily.  All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only.  Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use.  All information is provided on an as-is basis.

As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.