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Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.31

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll.

*****The single most important thing that we need to be considering today is the weather impact on prop plays this week. Snow, wind, rain, and cold weather will lead me towards unders in a big way when it comes to receivers and quarterbacks.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays

More or Less New England at Buffalo: 3.5x Payout (2 of 2)

Hammering unders with quarterbacks is going to be my go to today, even more so when they are either inaccurate or if they have below average arm strength. Both Josh Allen and Cam Newton have strong arms but they both have flaws in regards to accuracy and decision making. With wind above 20 MPH and rain I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if Cam didn’t break 100 yards today. He has always had a bad habit of throwing off of his back foot causing his passes to sail. He also lets his emotions get into his head when he is in a rut and compounds his own issues and to this point he has only ONE game with more than 162 passing yards. I could justify the over for Allen but I honestly don’t think he’ll ever need to. I think Buffalo will control this game on the ground all day.

More or Less Las Vegas at Cleveland: 3.5x Payout (2 of 2)

Two teams that prefer to run the ball with QB’s who aren’t known for having strong arms in snow/rain with wind well over 30 miles an hour. I’m not going to get cute with this one either. Jon Gruden loves the idea on letting Derek Carr hand it off 45 times. At most we’ll see small dump offs and screen passes and now Baker Mayfield is without Odell Beckham and we all know he has issues with his decision making. He also has small hands for a QB (9.25 in). Between the two teams I don’t think we exceed 30 total passes.

More or Less Las Vegas at Cleveland: 20x Payout (High Risk) (5 of 5)

I touched on it above, we are not going to get much if anything thru the air. I kind of like Darren Waller but I really just don’t see enough volume to trust any pass catchers, he may catch a touchdown at the goal line but I don’t see much more than that happening. For obvious reasons Kareem Hunt is the only over play that I like. Vegas is horrid against the run and he’s staring down the barrel of 30 touches come kickoff.

More or Less New Orleans at Chicago: 3x Payout

I know I’m being boring and I don’t care. The two weakest arms in the NFL. On the best of days Drew Brees and Nick Foles struggle getting the ball outside of the hashes or anything down the field with any kind of velocity. Now give me 25 MPH sustained wind and two reasonably solid defenses and I’m sold. I love the idea of using Latavius Murray, Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, and if you’re really crazy in a large field GPP and you’re max entering Cordarrelle Patterson might be a crazy wide receiver addition with extra running back volume mixed in. It’s crazy, just something that popped into my head.

More or Less San Francisco at Seattle: 3.5x Payout

Alright, we’ll have some fun at least with one of them. We all love to play overs so lets do that with Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo. Wilson as close to a lock for 300 yards+ as you can possibly get with the only two being a horrible weather game against Minnesota and against the Patriots back when they were actually playing decent football and even then it was 288 yards. Jimmy Grapes has played like doodoo but Seattle will cure any quarterback’s offensive woes. Cam Newton 397 yards, Dak Prescott 461 yards, Ryan Fitzpatrick 315 yards, Matt Ryan 434 yards, Kyler Murray 360 yards. Nuff Said, have fun.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.31. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25 Part Duex

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

My plays on MKF went off the board very quickly this week so I’m following up with a second set of NFL plays for you to dig into for our Sunday Slate. Hop on them quick, there is no guarantee they will be available for long! I’m going to be very quick in my explanations in order to get them out faster to give more time to put plays in. I’m attacking the same games so see my previous article for an longer explanation.

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll. I will give you all a higher risk play but it is purely optional and not intended for anything but a little riskier action if that happens to be your thing.

We have some crazy shootout potential this week so for better or worse we are going to have a bunch of overs today with seven games sitting at 50 or over for implied team totals and the overs have been successful in over 60 percent of NFL games to this point which is a pretty rare number to hit in either direction when it comes to sports betting.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25 Part Duex

Green Bay at Houston:

More or Less 3 of 4 (3x Payout)

The highest total game of the day at 57.5 points is Green Bay at Houston. We have a pretty perfect storm for offensive output. Houston’s offense has come to life with the ousting of Bill O’Brien (thankfully for us not their defense) and now they get a Packers team who are likely going to be without two key defensive secondary pieces in Darnell Savage and Kevin King making the deep routes very vulnerable for Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller. On the Packers side we have a ticked off Aaron Rodgers who is playing inspired football for the first time in several years with his full allotment of receivers to include the target hog Davante Adams and a dinged up Aaron Jones so it only makes sense that we get a healthy dose of airing the ball out from both sides on Sunday. My only under here is Aaron Jones’s 68.5. He’s never been a huge volume guy on the ground under Matt LaFluer, his ceiling comes from the fact that he can do everything well. At the end of the day he’ll have a massive day but it will be a statline of 13 carries 60 yards and two td’s, then 6 catches 55 yards and another td in the air. Combine that with his calf injury and Lefluer’s already frustrating habit of taking Jones out during key moments for Jamal Williams and I’m good leaning under on him Sunday.

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout)

My last play was essentially the same but they swapped Deshaun Watson with Aaron Rodgers so there was no need to change the sub-text. Here it is quite simple I think Watson through likely playing from behind for a portion of the game I give the passing yard edge to Watson and while I don’t like David Johnson in a vacuum I do think Aaron Jones will be largely held out today with Lafluer opting to use much more Jamal Williams and AJ Dillon.

Seattle at Arizona:

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout): This play hasn’t changed

I don’t see this one staying up for long, as of this point the rushing prop for Kenyan Drake is 58.5 and 60.5 respectively on DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook so someone’s number is off a bit and from the looks of things around the various sites it looks like it’s this 65.5 number. Drake has looked pretty rough all season and I’m willing to bet that last week against Dallas isn’t going to repeat this week. We all know that Pete Carol won’t abandon the run but the same thing can’t be said about Cliff Kingsbury, especially when they are any sort of catch up. Against Carolina where they went down early Drake only got 13 carries for 35 yards. While I don’t see them getting down that badly anything over a touchdown and It will be all air raid from that point. As far as Tyler Lockett goes there is no way I’m not taking the over 5.5 catches when Seattle has an implied team total of 29.5. I personally don’t think the 55.5 total is high enough for this one.

Rapidfire 3 of 3: (6x Payout)(Higher Risk)

You mean to tell me I get bonus points for Seattle offensive players?!?!?!? Thank you MKF. Chris Carson is far and away the better back in pretty much every metric and would still take Carson if Drake was the one with the bonus points. While DeAndre Hopkins is the best wide receiver in the NFL right now DK Metcalf is not far behind in year two and Hopkins is still a little dinged up and once again Seattle is getting bonus points. Kyler Murray while being a fantasy stud he has only exceeded 300 yards once with much of his production coming on the ground. While I do think he gets close to that mark out of necessity tomorrow Russell Wilson is the frontrunner for MVP on the only undefeated team in the NFL while throwing for over 300 yards in 3 of 5 games and one of those games was in horrible wind/rain conditions and the other was against a pretty good Patriots defense.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25 Part Duex. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll. I will give you all a higher risk play but it is purely optional and not intended for anything but a little riskier action if that happens to be your thing.

We have some crazy shootout potential this week so for better or worse we are going to have a bunch of overs today with seven games sitting at 50 or over for implied team totals and the overs have been successful in over 60 percent of NFL games to this point which is a pretty rare number to hit in either direction when it comes to sports betting.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25

Green Bay at Houston:

More or Less 3 of 4 (3x Payout)

The highest total game of the day at 57.5 points is Green Bay at Houston. We have a pretty perfect storm for offensive output. Houston’s offense has come to life with the ousting of Bill O’Brien (thankfully for us not their defense) and now they get a Packers team who are likely going to be without two key defensive secondary pieces in Darnell Savage and Kevin King making the deep routes very vulnerable for Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller. On the Packers side we have a ticked off Aaron Rodgers who is playing inspired football for the first time in several years with his full allotment of receivers to include the target hog Davante Adams and a dinged up Aaron Jones so it only makes sense that we get a healthy dose of airing the ball out from both sides on Sunday. My only under here is Aaron Jones’s 68.5. He’s never been a huge volume guy on the ground under Matt LaFluer, his ceiling comes from the fact that he can do everything well. At the end of the day he’ll have a massive day but it will be a statline of 13 carries 60 yards and two td’s, then 6 catches 55 yards and another td in the air. Combine that with his calf injury and Lefluer’s already frustrating habit of taking Jones out during key moments for Jamal Williams and I’m good leaning under on him Sunday.

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout)

I love all four of these guys in DFS Sunday but my expectation is that Green Bay will probably be playing with a bit of a lead creating a situation where while Deshaun Watson may not “outduel” Aaron Rodgers in a traditional sense I do think he’ll do a bit better in the yardage category. For most of Aaron’s career his most dominant games he would never go crazy in yardage, he would just pick you apart with multiple touchdowns and extreme efficiency and part of that comes from Davante Adams and his weekly double digit targets and in most cases catches as well. Will Fuller has done a great job becoming more than just a big play threat with DeAndre Hopkins gone but he is still nowhere near the level of Adams when it comes to consistent target volume.

Seattle at Arizona:

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout)

I don’t see this one staying up for long, as of this point the rushing prop for Kenyan Drake is 58.5 and 60.5 respectively on DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook so someone’s number is off a bit and from the looks of things around the various sites it looks like it’s this 65.5 number. Drake has looked pretty rough all season and I’m willing to bet that last week against Dallas isn’t going to repeat this week. We all know that Pete Carol won’t abandon the run but the same thing can’t be said about Cliff Kingsbury, especially when they are any sort of catch up. Against Carolina where they went down early Drake only got 13 carries for 35 yards. While I don’t see them getting down that badly anything over a touchdown and It will be all air raid from that point. As far as Tyler Lockett goes there is no way I’m not taking the over 5.5 catches when Seattle has an implied team total of 29.5. I personally don’t think the 55.5 total is high enough for this one.

More or Less 2 of 2 (3.5x Payout)

I don’t think I need to say much more about this game aside from what I said earlier, I don’t see many scenarios aside from weather that can derail this from shooting out and playing in Arizona we wont be dealing with that issue. Sans Drake I love the idea of loading up on overs in this one. Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray will be a fun show.

More or Less (High risk play)(20x Payout)

I’ve made my feelings clear above, apart from Kenyan Drake I am ecstatic to get the opportunity to attack any overs that I can in this game. This is high risk so don’t get crazy with this one. It’s just for a little fun.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Edition 10.25. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFLSports Betting

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ TNF AETY Model Prop Locks (Week 7)

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Week 7, Thursday Night Football. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. This model is meant for taking advantage of sports betting market errors. If you don’t get a similar price to what we post here, it’s recommended that you do not play those NFL Prop Bets. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/PlayerSportsBookLineUnit Risk
NYG +4.5TBD-1050.3
Darius Slayton O52.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.4
Greg Ward O32.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.8
DeSean Jackson O34.5 Rec ydsDraftKings-1340.5
Greg Ward O3.5 RecDraftKings-1121.1

Also, keep an eye on the WinDailySports NFL tab on the website. I’m extremely excited to announce the BRAND NEW Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool that is going to be an extreme asset to our daily fantasy and sports betting toolset.

People always value Implied Team Totals from Vegas that factor in field goals and minimal things that do not impact daily fantasy… the new Adjusted Expected Team Totals are STRICTLY for skill position touchdown weights. You can’t roster kickers on your main slate lineups, so why would you care about numbers that factor in kickers? You shouldn’t. LFG!

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as this football season moves onward.

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NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.21

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll.

In order to take advantage of the play offerings from MKF It would be best served if you would lock in your plays on the same day they my article is released, especially with NFL content. The prop plays themselves tend to change over the week so if you wait until Sunday morning you likely won’t get the same numbers or players that I recommend.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.21 NFL (TNF/10.22)

More or Less (3 of 4): 2.5x payout

There have been a couple of TNF contests where I ended up being pleasantly surprised (see Bengals/Browns) but there have also a couple that ended up being the dumpster fire that I was expecting (Broncos/Jets anyone). Due to the sheer volume of injuries on both sides of the ball and the tendency for both teams to struggle offensively I’m comfortably leaning on the later. Travis Fulgham and Devonta Freeman are really the only two guys I have any confidence in the overs with. Fulgham has flashed in his recent opportunities and is a rare bright spot for this Eagles team and he is legitimately the only semi proven option for Carson Wentz with the following players either confirmed or likely out tommorrow: Miles Sanders, Desean Jackson, Zack Ertz, Dallas Goedert, and Alshon Jeffery. I expect Wentz to struggle, but who else will get targets? On the Giants side it is much the same for Danny Pesos (he needs to earn his Dimes moniker back) and he has regressed under Jason Garrett compared to last year. Saquon Barkley, Sterling Sheppard, CJ Board all out, Darius Slayton looks like he’ll play but he is clearly injured and he did not perform well last week leaving Golden Tate, Evan Engram, and Devonta Freeman as the only options with any kind of experience to speak of. The Eagles are listed as the #4 run defense on DK but that makes zero sense. They are the worst in the league in rushing TD’s allowed, Bottom 10 in yards allowed, and bottom 3 in penalties which leads to longer drives. IF, and that’s a big IF Garrett is smart he will take the air out of the ball as early as possible and limit Daniel Jones‘s chance to turn it over and run Freeman into the ground tonight. This section is really long but it covers not only this play but it covers my rationale for the NFL plays below.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x payout

No need to expound, full explanation above.

More or Less (5 of 5): 15x payout ***read below***

This is clearly a high risk play. 5 leg parlays are largely luck so don’t blow your whole bankroll on this, it’s just for fun. As I noted above, these offenses were garbage when everyone was healthy, the floor is the limit with the number of injuries we are dealing with. If you’re playing showdowns Thursday, it is a kicker/defense narrative for sure but we’ll get into that during the live stream tomorrow.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.21 MLB

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x payout

Splits this season can be deceiving for hitters this season. Betts statistically was bad in 2020 against lefties with a .200 AVG and an atrocious .218 slugging percentage. But he only had 64 total plate appearances this season. Over his career though his lines are .297 AVG and a .509 slugging percentage over 925 plate appearances. He burned me the last time I used him but it wasn’t his fault. It was a huge blowout victory and he was pulled in the 5th inning in what I can only assume was intended to get him some rest in a game that was out of reach. As far as Blake Snell goes, the Rays clearly either do not have a ton of confidence in Snell this postseason or they do not want to risk injury. He’s only pitched in four games this season, only exceeding 84 pitches once, and only exceeding 4 strikeouts once thus far and he is now facing the most prolific offense thus far under the highest of pressure situations. Combine that with the Rays bullpen depth and how refusing to use it in game one cost them dearly I imagine his leash will be short.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight 10.21. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.18 NFL Edition

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

From the looks of it MKF adjusted their payout structure slightly on most of their NFL plays for the better. Instead of 3x we get 3.3x on a lot of our more or less play. I won’t complain about it one bit.

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll. I’ll put one in every article but it is completely optional.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.18 NFL Edition:

More or Less Texans at Titans: 3.3x payout

This one is pretty fun in my eyes, Adam Humphries is going to get a ton of looks tomorrow against a Texans secondary that just gave up 300 and 2 TD’s against Garner Minshew. From the looks of it Bill O’brien’s exit may have helped the offense but the defense is still a complete mess. We also get the added benefit here of Humphries not having Corey Davis on the field for one more week taking looks away. On the other side as much as I want to tell you the under for David Johnson I can’t. He just came off of his best YPC contest against the Jaguars going 19 for 96 at 5.6 YPC, the Titans have been getting shredded on the ground including 165 to the Jags and 226 to the Vikings, and three of four contest they’ve given up at least 100 yards. Looking for the overs to continue carrying our MKF plays here.

More or Less Chicago at Carolina: 3.3x payout

Allen Robinson and Mike Davis both have their props set low in my opinion by between 5-10 yards at least. Arob is one of the premier talents in the league no matter who is throwing him the ball and he’s exceeded 90 receiving yards in all three contests since Foles took over and Mike Davis is averaging over 80 yards and 5 YPC in his last two games and the Bears are right smack in the middle this year in rushing yards allowed at 566 over five games.
Considering Davis has assumed the “bell cow” status in CMC’s absence 65.5 if a very reachable number.

Rapidfire Atlanta at Minnesota: 6x payout

I feel like I’m being set up here but I love this Rapidfire contest with the Falcons and Vikings. Matt Ryan should have his full allotment of weapons at full strength finally which I see not only giving him a huge passing game bump but also with the weak secondary of the Vikings having Julio there will draw the main coverage giving Calvin Ridley room to go off with a bonus to boot. That plays into the final leg where Alexander Mattison very well may get 30 touches and is the most capable “backup” in the league. While Gurley does have 22.5 bonus yards what happened last week is not at all going to be the norm, we can all see clear as day that he does not move nearly as well as he used to and most of his equity this week will likely come from the goal line.

Star Showdown Early Slate More or Less: 3.3x Payout

Give me all the A-rob and Ridley over today! I already talked about it above so I won’t go into huge detail here. I love both of these guys Sunday, the props feel way too low on both of them.

More or Less Packers at Buccaneers: 3.3x payout

Felt like doing one with my Packers today. I wish I could be a homer and say over but if Aaron Jones gets in done this week it is going to be through the air not on the ground. Even against a soft running team that is usually how he gets it done anyway as one of the premier receiving backs in the league. In fact he’s only exceeded 75 yards on the ground once this year. Add in Matt Lafluer’s tendency to limit hit volume and Tampa has had the best run defense in the NFL over the last two season and this screams under. Mike Evans is play is much more simple, the game has a 55 point total, it’s still Tom Brady even if he is 43, he likes big bodies in the redzone, and with Godwin’s injury Evans and Brady are more likely to be on the same page so 4.5 screams too low to me today.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight edition. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFLSports Betting

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ TNF AETY Model Prop Locks

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Tuesday… yes, Tuesday Night Football! Hopefully you all enjoyed the clean sweep of Prop Bets last night! What a time to be alive. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. This model is meant for taking advantage of sports betting market errors. If you don’t get a similar price to what we post here, it’s recommended that you do not play those NFL Prop Bets. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/PlayerSportsBookLineUnit Risk
Devin Singletary O19.5 Rec YdsDraftKings-1120.7
Kalif Raymond O37.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.4
Kalif Raymond O2.5 RecFanDuel-1021.2

Also, keep an eye on the WinDailySports NFL tab on the website this week. I’m extremely excited to announce the BRAND NEW Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool that is going to be an extreme asset to our daily fantasy and sports betting toolset.

People always value Implied Team Totals from Vegas that factor in field goals and minimal things that do not impact daily fantasy… the new Adjusted Expected Team Totals are STRICTLY for skill position touchdown weights. You can’t roster kickers on your main slate lineups, so why would you care about numbers that factor in kickers? You shouldn’t. LFG!

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as this football season moves onward.

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NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.13 Tuesday Night Football.

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll.

We have ourselves a rare treat today, Tuesday Night Football!!! I was going to cover MLB and NFL today but I really wanted to focus in on this interesting little contest that only 2020 could give us so lets dig in shall we?

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.13 Tuesday Night Football

More or Less (choose 3 of 4): 2.5x payout.

Alright, lets go ahead and get my bold take out of the way. I don’t think Henry gets close to the over. I’ve spent more time watching Derrick Henry film than any other player this year. Why? Well something seemed odd with how he was running and the more I watched the more I noticed that they have changed the run formations. They have largely spread the formations out more as well as reduced the amount of times they use a lead blocker, whether it be a fullback or bringing a tight end in to iso the first guy. Henry is a beast, but he’s not a Miles Sanders or Christian McCaffrey style back that can move laterally to make the first guy miss and this shows itself in this years 3.9 YPA compared to 5.1 last season and 4.9 in 2018. The rest of my choices are apparent off of that, A.J. Brown is going to get plenty of work with no Corey Davis or Adam Humphries even if conditioning is a bit of an issue, Diggs has caught at least six balls in 3-4 contests and Josh Allen has exceeded 311 yards in 3-4 and looks like a world-beater early on and Stefon Diggs is a big reason for that. If you disagree on Henry you still have the flexibility on this one to take the over and still payout if it doesn’t work but until I see the scheme revert back to 2019 I’m going to stay on the under.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x payout.

Don’t worry folks, for those of you who feel differently than myself on Derrick Henry we’ll have a couple below that don’t include him. But My take on this one is the same as above. I expect this to be an air based game with Allen and Tannehill going shot for shot for four quarters and Stephon Diggs appears to have overtaken John Brown as the #1 and completely altered Josh Allen’s trajectory as a passer.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x payout.

Same deal as above with Josh Allen, no less that 311 yards in 3 of 4 and the Titans allow 315 yards against the only “decent” passing team they’ve faced in the Jaguars and Ryan Tannehill is consistently disrespected on prop sites as if he didn’t have a season of showing that if he needed to put up huge games through the air he could. Bills are going to score pretty easily today, he has to throw to keep up. 244.5 is much to low a number given the potential game script and a 51.5 total where they are projected 3.5 point dogs.

Rapidfire: 3x payout

While I think that Josh Allen and by proxy Stefon Diggs will exceed raw yardage and overcome a 7.5 yard bonus relatively easily due to this being A.J. Brown’s first game back due to conditioning alone I think Ryan Tannehill chucks it as I mentioned above and he still has other weapons in Jonnu Smith and Kalif Raymond who more than filled in admirably in week 3 hauling in a all three of his targets for 118 yards. Buffalo has had issues over the last several seasons stopping the deep passing attack and this years sans the Jets in week one are still giving up 300 yards a game through the air. It may be a byproduct of an improved offense and the need for teams to throw to keep up but for the purpose of fantasy that is a good thing.

More or Less (3 of 3): 6x payout

I know you guys like something a little higher risk to take a swing at sometimes do here is a bonus 5th play that takes from previous prop plays for a nice little 6x on your investment. This one is purely optional but if you run everything else above this is just a little icing on the cake. Additionally, you can use this one as a hedge to take advantage of the larger return to still make a profit if you want do go in a different direction on a play that you don’t feel as strongly about as I do. Either way, it’s a fun little option to finish up out MKF article.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Tuesday Night Football 10.13 edition. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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