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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks Week 18

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

The NFL season wraps up today in Week 18. And luckily for us football fans, there are many important games on the slate for us to watch and bet on. This has been a fantastic season for the NFL as the parody they aim for has been reached. While Baltimore and San Francisco are locked into the number one seeds in their conference, both are vulnerable and the postseason tournament will be wide open.

We had a great week last weekend by posting a 4-1 record. We’ll look to extend that momentum into Week 18 with the below picks.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 44-29 (last week 4-1)

NFL BETS WEEK 18

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 vs ATLANTA FALCONS

The Saints have been one of the most underwhelming teams in the NFL this season. But they played their most complete game last week in Tampa to give them a shot at the NFC South Division title. They’ll need to win today, and hope for a Carolina upset of the Buccaneers to get in the dance. Stranger things have occurred!

But this pick isn’t about the Saints as much as it is about their opponent, the Atlanta Falcons. Head Coach Arthur Smith is definitely on the hot seat. From his constant swapping of starting QB’s, to his complete mismanagement of his start players, he’s completed a mess in Atlanta. And the unfortunate part is they should have won this division with the talent they have. They come into this game with losses in 3 of their last 4 games. Including two embarrassing ones; a 20 point loss to Chicago and 2 point loss to Carolina.

I don’t see how the Falcons can stay motivated today. And while this will be a heavy public bet, I’m good riding that side as long as it stays at 3 or less.

ARIZONA CARDINALS +3 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Cardinals pulled off the upset of the season last week when they beat the Philadelphia Eagles by a score of 35-31. Head Coach Jonathan Gannon has the Cardinals playing hard to end the season which is a key factor in this bet. They also play better at home, despite their two big road upsets, as they are 4-3 ATS and 2-5 SU in the desert. As for their opponent, the Seahawks, they come in losers in 5 of their last 7. And their two wins are last minute miracles against the Eagles and Titans. Surprisingly, the wheels have fallen off the wagon as they are struggling on both sides of the ball.

The betting market is even on this game so the line isn’t anticipated to move much between now and kickoff. I’ll trust Kyler Murray to have his team hang tough and maybe pull off the outright upset.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -3 vs DENVER BRONCOS

The Raiders have played extremely hard under HC Antonio Pierce. Their play on the field fully represents the tough attitude that Pierce displayed when he played. They’ve also won seven straight games against the Broncos including their opening week victory in Denver.

As for Denver, the recent change in QB has left a cloud of doubt over the team. Yes, they were victorious last week against the Chargers. But they struggled to pull away against an Easton Stick led attack from LA. Where on the other hand, the Raiders crushed the same Chargers by a score of 63-21 just 3 weeks ago.

I’ll take the team that has some fight left in them versus a team that is in full transition mode under HC Sean Payton.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -2.5 vs CHICAGO BEARS

I was on the Bears earlier this week. I love how HC Matt Eberflus has this team playing to close out the season. It’s what Chicago fans envisioned when 2023 started. But instead it took half the season to get things straightened out and now it’s too little and too late in the Windy City. However, the best news for Chicago is that they’ll have the number one pick in next years draft due to the ineptitude of the Panthers. So this season is still a success and the future is bright.

But I’ve flipped my lean of Chicago to Green Bay for a few reasons. First, Green Bay has shown resilience on multiple occasions this year. Most importantly, they’ve shown it when playing their Division rivals. They are 3-2 in NFC North games, but impressively are 2-0 in rematches. They dismantled both the Lions and Vikings in their second games. And now they try to match that success playing the Bears for a second time.

The other reason I now like Green Bay is because of some motivational words that Justin Fields gave them. While it may not be much, he took a shot at the small town Packers. Their fans are sure to be dialed into that and ready to bring the heat today. I’ll take a fired up Packer fan base to bring the heat and make a difference in the game today.

BONUS BET: Buffalo Bills -2.5

Dolphins can’t win against good teams. Ride the Bills especially now they have some freedom knowing they’re in the dance.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 18

Joe DiCarlo
written by Joe DiCarlo

We’ve finally reached the end of the road, Week 18 is here to wrap up the 2023-24 season. Paying attention here will be crucial for DFS, as some teams will be putting it all on the line to make the postseason, and others will be resting their starters as they already locked up a playoff slot. Be creative, but don’t get too cute with your builds. Stacking players on teams with motivation to win will be one of the safest routes this weekend, so let’s keep it simple.
As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Sunday Main Slate 1/7/24


Jaguars @ Titans (+5) (U/O 39.5)

Jacksonville will head into Tennessee looking to clinch the AFC South with a victory, but Vrabel would savor playing spoiler against the division-rival Jaguars. However, it will be an uphill battle for the Jags, as Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk will be game-time decisions. So if CJ Beathard gets another start, Calvin Ridley should still see the majority of targets, although they would be better coming from Lawrence.

In a meaningless game for the Titans, DeAndre Hopkins will be eyeing some incentives to close out the 2023 season. Seven catches and 49 yards will earn him a cool $2.2 million. For DFS that would only total 12 fantasy points, so unless he lands in the endzone or goes bonkers with Ryan Tannehill that may not cut it for tournaments, so please keep him in cash.

Vikings @ Lions (-3.5) (O/U 45.5)

Minnesota is a long shot to reach the postseason while Detroit could move up a slot with a win on Sunday. Lions head coach Dan Campbell already said in a press conference this week “We’re playing our starters”, but for how long will they be out there? Campbell has a track record of living on the edge along the sidelines, from refusing PATs and field goals to running out his starters all four quarters in meaningless games. Beware of rostering any Lions for Week 18 for cash games, best keep them in tournaments. Amon-Ra St. Brown is rumored to have been snubbed from the Pro Bowl this season and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is hoping to break some records, take your shot on either.

The carousel at quarterback for the Vikings will land on Nick Mullens to close out the season, as the team is a longshot to make the postseason. He did perform well two weeks ago against Detroit, scoring 23 DK FPTS, as well as lighting up Justin Jefferson’s stat line (6 REC/141 YDS/1 TD). The Vikings may look to build off their previous matchup in Week 16 and end the year on a good note, but keep in mind their season is pretty much over and we may not get a full sample of starters for Minnesota.

Browns @ Bengals (-7) (O/U 37.5)

Cleveland has clinched a Wild Card berth and will be resting their starters, and Jeff Driskel is their starting quarterback. The rest of the gang will be on the shelf, as well as key defensive pieces such as Myles Garrett. Cleveland offers value at running back with this news, and his name is Pierre Strong. He’s run for over five yards per carry on the season and should be relied upon heavily ranking third on the Browns’ depth chart. He’s min-priced for DFS and allows you to get different from the slate on a weekend missing a lot of regulars.

The Bengals season will come to an end this weekend after being eliminated from contention in Week 17. No need to look in their direction for DFS, as the risks will outweigh the rewards in a game where we may see familiar Bengals’ faces on the sidelines in the second half or as late scratches.

Bucs @ Panthers (+4.5) (O/U 37.5)

If the Bucs win, they lock up the NFC South, simple as that. What better opponent can they ask for, as they’ll face the worst team in the league in Carolina. Start your Tampa studs for DFS, and the opportunity share has been consistent all year round. Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin shouldered the bulk of the offense for Tampa, and especially Rachaad White. The second-year back will face the worst-ranked run defense and should feast this Sunday, a lock across all formats in a do-or-die game for the Bucs.

As bad as the Panthers have played this year, so has the Bucs’ secondary (32nd in passing yards allowed/game). DJ Chark will see plenty of Jamel Dean, which could end his season on a high note for fantasy. Chark is another sneaky dart throw for GPPs on the slate, and under $4K on DraftKings is very tempting.

Falcons @ Saints (-3) (O/U 42)

Back to the NFC South for two teams that have a shot at the division if Carolina can pull off the unthinkable upset, allowing the winner of this matchup the champs. Saints wideout Chris Olave does not carry an injury designation going into the weekend, making him the most dynamic player in this game to target for DFS. I’m going to go out on a limb here also, Swiss Army Knife Taysom Hill has been quiet lately, and what better week to get him going again than this one? Alvin Kamara is a game-time decision and the coaching staff loves to use trickery with a lot at stake. Taysom is a boom or bust option for New Orleans, but if you prefer less risk go Olave.

Hopefully, this week will be the last we see of head coach Arthur Smith in Atlanta, but you never know these days in the NFL. He may be without quarterback Taylor Heinicke in the finale due to an ankle and would divert him back to Desmond Ridder for the third flip-flop this season. Back in Week 12, he connected with Drake London on five of seven targets for 95 yards, giving the wideout some flex appeal at his low to mid-range salary. Take the Drake in a matchup where both teams have something to play for.

Jets @ Patriots (-2) (O/U 30.5)

What do we have here? A 30-point total between two teams that are completely out of the playoff picture. The Jets and Patriots will be playing for pride, but don’t bank on the starters being out for all four quarters. Instead, we may see some auditioning for roster spots in 2024. Playing either defense would be the safest route in this contest, especially if we get some winter weather.

I’d love to use Breece Hall or Zeke Elliot for DFS this weekend, as their matchups are juicy, but they’ll cost you in salary space. It’s best to pay up elsewhere at running back in your cash games, but for tournaments, I’d have no problem with either of the two.

Chiefs @ Chargers (-3.5) (O/U 35.5)

I’m dumbfounded by this line sent out by Vegas earlier in the week, I know this is a DFS article but the Chiefs’ second and third-stringers are still in my opinion much better than this broken Brandon Staley Chargers’ team. Give me the backups led by Andy Reid any day of the week, Chiefs’ money line I will be throwing some bets at them this weekend.

Kansas City will be resting all their main guys, so Blaine Gabbert gets the call up to close it out in LA. We’ll see plenty of new faces on Sunday for the Chiefs, which will mean value for our lineups if you decide to look into this game. Guys like Justin Ross, Richie James, Noah Gray, and Blake Bell are all min-priced for DFS, so take a shot on any of these veteran backups in tournaments.

Has everybody seen enough of Easton Stick yet? I’m done with the Chargers as well. Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnson are receivers I would consider in a heartbeat any other day, but it’s their lack of talent at quarterback that has me heading for the hills for DFS.

Bears @ Packers (-3) (O/U 44)

Jordan Love fresh off the biggest game of his career Sunday night will aim to keep his momentum moving at home in Green Bay, in a win and get in for a Wild Card slot. On the opposite side of the field, however, Justin Fields will continue to showcase his skills for Chicago as they hold the number one pick in the draft, looking for a big payday down the road.

Love should have his team on offense back at full strength, as Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson, and Luke Musgrave all may reach the field this Sunday, with Aaron Jones as his main man in the backfield since AJ Dillon will miss the finale.

The Packers have been run all over by opposing running backs all year, allowing over 130 yards per game. The Bears’ Khalil Herbert has retaken the backfield in Chicago, but he could miss this game due to a personal issue. Rochon Johnson and even quarterback Justin Fields may see some extra burn if Herbert doesn’t suit up. Chicago is out of the playoffs but would love to play spoiler to their biggest rival in the division rival, who’s been “owned” by Green Bay over the past decade.

Broncos @ Raiders (-3) (O/U 38)

Here we have another game for pride between two AFC West rivals with nothing to gain for the season closer. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce has already said on record “We’re playing everybody”. So we may see plenty of starters for Vegas in an attempt to rally behind Pierce to have an extension for 2024.

O’Connell made Davante Adams WR1 for Week 17, hitting him up for 13 catches for 126 yards and two touchdowns. Backup running back Zamir White slid right into the Vegas backfield with ease, totaling 251 all-purpose yards in two games. I believe this will be a statement game for Vegas, and will play their best players in the finale at home.

The Broncos on the other hand could be having auditions for next season in front of head coach Sean Peyton. Word on the street is we may see plenty of Jaleel McLaughlin for the Broncos in the backfield according to Denver press releases. He’s priced down significantly at running back, so if you’re looking for a paydown spot look no further,

Eagles @ Giants (+5) (O/U 42)

Philly needs a win for the NFC East crown at the Meadowlands, but if Dallas gets a big early lead in Washington, we could see starters on the bench in the second half. So unless you are looking to do some late swapping during the second half of the slate, I would stay away from any of these big-name players for Philadelphia for DFS.

New York led by head coach Brian Dabol will strive to end the year on a high note before some major changes come in the off-season. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been a true veteran for Big Blue, giving the Giants a spark in the offense and keeping opposing defenses honest at the end of the season. The Eagles’ defense under Matt Patricia has been horrendous, becoming a quarterback’s wet dream and ranking dead last in DVOA (32nd). Pairing Taylor with receiver Darius Slayton has been beneficial over the past two weeks, and if the weather stays calm they have the potential to make it a three-peat for DFS.

Seahawks @ Cardinals (+2.5) (O/U 48)

The Seahawks will put all their chips in the middle to make the playoffs, and standing in their way are the Cardinals, who have been exposed all year by opposing offenses. We’ve picked on Arizona practically all year, and against a team itching to make the postseason, we should consider Seahawks players for DFS.

DK Metcalf, Kenneth Walker, and company will cook for fantasy, so get them in lineups. Especially DK since he missed the first meeting with Arizona, he’ll feast against cornerback Starling Thomas or Antonio Hamilton this weekend.

The Cardinals have put up a good fight to end the year, beating the Eagles on the road last week. Kyler Murray will again not go down without swinging and James Conner has been unstoppable in the backfield (22 and 29 DK FPTS in the last two weeks). I have no problem with running it back with some Arizona.

Rams @ Niners (-4) (O/U 41)

Both NFC West rivals will roll out their backups in this matchup as they have clinched playoff spots and a win or loss does not affect their positions in the seeding. No Stafford, Kupp, or Kyren for the Rams. Puca Nacua will play though, but possibly until he breaks the single-season rookie record for yards, where he only needs 30 to break it. Puca may be sidelined after the milestone, so be careful not to step into that trap.

For the Niners, Sam Darnold will start under center, along with Eli Mitchell and Jordan Mason in the backfield. Tight end George Kittle may get some rest along with receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to join Christian McCaffrey. The only Niner we can trust is Juan Jennings this week, but he is still in concussion protocol. If he clears the final stage, he can be in line for a ton of targets from Darnold.

Cowboys @ Commanders (+13) (O/U 46.5)

Finally, we get to Dallas, as a win in Washington gives them the division and number two seed in the NFC, clinching home-field advantage for two potential playoff games. The Cowboys have one of the best matchups on paper to do so, as the Commanders have bled out points and filled stat sheets all year long for opposing offenses.

Dak, CeeDee, Pollard, Cooks, and Fergusen are all in play this weekend, where we could see some weather come into effect. Dallas will do what they do best in these situations, beat up on really bad defenses.

The Commanders will benefit from losing this game, as that would lock up the number two draft pick. But head coach Ron Rivera could be on unemployment this Monday, so he could do everything in his power to win, even better for the Cowboys for DFS if they put up a fight. As far as using any Commanders, I’d take a shot on a cheap Brian Robinson in GPPs. Dallas has struggled to defend against the run in their previous two games, so why not Robinson with Carlos Rodriguez on IR and Antonio Gibson as strictly a third-down guy?

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 18. What a season, hope you all enjoyed my content! You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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NFL Week 18 Saturday Slate

Ivan Herrera
written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the last regular season Saturday slate for the NFL season. Both games on the slate have playoff implications so expect the three teams fighting for a playoff spot to treat this game as a do-or-die situation. 

The purpose of this article is to break down the best plays both on the DFS and betting sides. The article will include my favorite plays and honorable mentions for every DFS position. You can also find my favorite bets under Drago’s Best Bets section at the end of the article.

Before we get to my favorite plays for the weekend, I want to point out that this isn’t a regular week so make sure you are locked in prior to kickoff to make sure everyone in your lineup is playing.

The QBs:

CJ Stroud ($7300DK, $8300FD)

Let’s start this article off with the favorite to win the OROY. The Colts were Stroud’s second-ever start back in Week 2, and it was his breakout performance where he threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns. With a playoff spot on the line, I’m trusting Stroud against the Colts and their 18th-ranked defense against QBs.

Who to pair him with: Nico Collins. Xavier Hutchinson. Dalton Schultz

Mason Rudolph ($5400DK, $6800FD)

Rudolph is set to make his third start of the year. They will need some help on Sunday to make the playoffs, but they will first need to beat the Ravens on Saturday. Rudolph has had mixed performances in his first two starts of the year. He played well against the Bengals on Christmas Eve, and he followed that up by struggling a bit against Seattle. The Ravens this week are going to rest most of their starters since they secured first place in the AFC. So Rudolph will have to deal with a weaker defense than he would have if it were earlier in the year.

Who to pair him with: George Pickens. Diontae Johnson

Honorable Mentions: Gardner Minshew. Tyler Huntley.

The RBs:

Jonathan Taylor ($7400DK, $9200FD)

The highest-priced RB and the top-scoring RB on the slate, according to Stix’s model, Taylor has averaged 73.3 rushing yards per game and seven total touchdowns in his last seven since retaking control of the backfield. Houston has a solid rush defense, but the last time these two met, Houston could not contain Moss, who had 88 yards and a score on the ground. The Colts are in a must-win game, and it would shock me if they didn’t use their best player to help them get the win.

Jaylen Warren ($5400DK, $6000FD)

While I like his teammate Harris a lot too, I want to use Warren, as he has been averaging 4.5 receptions on 5.3 targets over the past four games. He has also seen at least three targets and seven rushing attempts in each of his last 10 games. With the Ravens sitting a good amount of their starters, Warren could see some nice catches out of the backfield.

Honorable Mentions: Devin Singletary. Najee Harris. Gus Edwards. Melvin Gordon

The WRs:

Michael Pittman Jr. ($7500DK, $7700FD)

There is not much to say about Pittman Jr.; he is the best WR on the slate. Pittman comes into the game as the seventh most targeted WR, averaging 10 targets per game. Pittman also ranks sixth in catch percentage among WRs with 100 receptions this season. The volume of targets plus this being a must-win game should make Pittman the top-scoring WR on this small slate.

Nico Collins ($8700DK, $8000FD)

With Brown ruled out and Woods questionable for Saturday, I will want all the Collins I can get. Collins has 100 targets this season, despite missing three games earlier in the year. Like I mentioned with Taylor, this is a must-win game for both teams, so I’ll be shocked if Houston doesn’t target Collins early and often.

Honorable Mentions: Xavier Hutchinson. George Pickens. Diontae Johnson. Josh Downs. Nelson Agholor.

The TEs

Isaiah Likely ($4800 DK, $6400 FD)

Likely is my favorite play on the Ravens. Jackson, OBJ, and Zay Flowers have all been ruled out, so their best weapon left is likely. Huntley isn’t a young QB, but the saying that young QBs love their TEs can also be used with backup QBs. This is likely a big security blanket for Huntley, as since this is a rivalry game, expect the Ravens to want to end any hope of the Steelers making the playoffs.

Honorable Mentions: Dalton Schultz. Pat Freiermuth. Charlie Kolar. Kylen Granson.

Favorite Value Plays:

  • Xavier Hutchinson, WR
  • Melvin Gordon, RB
  • Robert Woods, WR
  • Nelson Agholor, WR
  • Rashod Bateman, WR
  • Charlie Kolar, TE
  • Kylen Granson, TE

Drago’s Best Bets:

  • Houston -1.5
  • Steelers -2.5
  • Michael Pittman Jr Over 78.5 Receiving Yards
  • Nico Collins Over 73.5 Receiving Yards

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/nfl/

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks Week 17

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

Happy New Years Eve to the WinDaily family. Today is our last chance to take one more bite out of 2023. Here at WinDaily Sports we’ve been fortunate to have the support and comradery from a group as passionate as us about sports. We’ve seen big wins in the community from MLB, NBA, NHL, NASCAR, UFC, PGA, CFB, NFL and more. But let’s see if we can put one final big one in the books and start 2024 tomorrow with a some extra money in our pockets. And that’s what you have if you’ve been following my College Football Bowl Picks, I’m 16-8 over the past week hitting at a 67% clip.

The books got back on track last week as favorites covered in just seven of the sixteen games. More importantly, the books won the lopsided bets coming home with a 4-1 record when the public had 70% or more of the bets on one side. Today is a big day in the NFL as we the remaining 14 games of the week on all Sunday.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 40-28 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 17

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +2.5 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking to clinch the NFC South for a 3rd straight year. And they can do just that today with a win over the Saints. Just this time it will be without Tom Brady which is somewhat of a surprise according to preseason odds. Newly signed QB Baker Mayfield has found a home in Tampa and surged of late helping the Bucs win four in a row coming into Week 17.

On the other hand, the Saints are limping into this contest by losing four of their last six games. Their new QB, Derek Carr, looks terrible in a new offense and hasn’t been able to find any consistency.

So we have two teams, going in opposite directions, with new QB’s also playing with different projections. But yet, the Bucs are favored by less than 3? This feels like a trap. And when it feels that way, I zag while others zig. If you take a deeper look at the stats, the Saints have some clear edges. First, the Saints pass defense is 10th in DVOA which is their strong suit. The Bucs are bad running the ball, sitting 27th in DVOA, but excel in the passing game ranking 14th overall. That type of split plays directly into the Saints hands. And New Orleans actually has a better point differential even with one less win.

The Bucs have played well as dogs this year, but are just 2-2 ATS as favorites. And Baker Mayfield is 13-25 ATS as a favorite. It just says NFC South to have this race go down to Week 18 and potentially have a team win the division with a losing record. I’ll take the points today with NO but also think they win outright.

ATLANTA FALCONS +3 vs CHICAGO BEARS

The Bears are coming into this game playing very good football as they are winners in three of their last four games. Their only loss in that stretch was by three points to the surging Browns. The key to the revival has been an opportune defense that has 10 turnovers in the last four contests and held opponents to just 14 points per game.

But speaking of defenses, the Falcons have tightened things up of late allowing just one touchdown over the past two weeks. And my primary reason for liking them today is that they have the 5th best rushing defense in the league according to DVOA. The areas to exploit Atlanta is in the pass game as they are 28th in that category in DVOA. But the Bears are just the opposite as they are 10th offensively in the running game and 24th in the pass.

Atlanta’s offense isn’t good or flashy. But they showed good balance last week where they racked up 177 rushing yards and 229 passing yards against the Colts. With that type of balance, and the defense having an edge, I expect Atlanta to hang around and cover this number. Plus, as of this writing, 81% of bets are on Chicago and the line has stayed steady.

NEW YORK GIANTS +6.5 vs LA RAMS

I’m giving you the abridged version here as I’m getting ready to hop on the WinDaily NFL Pre-Lock show in the next 30 minutes. But I’m backing the Giants because I believe Tyrod Taylor can make plays in the passing game to keep this close. And wouldn’t it be so New York if they actually won a game they shouldn’t to hurt their draft stock? Well, maybe they don’t win this one but coach Daboll hasn’t lost the team and I think they’ll play hard today for him.

DENVER BRONCOS -3 vs LA CHARGERS

I’ll side with the public on this one. Sean Payton got his way and benched Russell Wilson as part of the transition to move on from the embattled QB. LA played tough last week against Buffalo. But that game against the Raiders is still on tape. And the motivation in LA has to be low as they are without their top two WR’s and a handful of other starters.

BONUS BET: GREEN BAY PACKERS +1.5

Adding a bet to close out another profitable week. Looking to close out at 4-1 and will back the Packers here. The defense is questionable but they are facing a rookie QB making his first career start in Jaren Hall. Take this for what it’s worth but Green Bay is 2-0 ATS in domes this year.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 17

Joe DiCarlo
written by Joe DiCarlo

How are we already in Week 17? What a season it’s been for DFS, as it begins to come to a close, this slate will have 13 games with 26 teams to choose from. We’ll need to stick to the teams with some incentive, and motivation to play. On to the breakdown, we’ve got plenty to discuss due to the size of this slate, and let’s ring in the New Year with some green screens!

As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Sunday Main Slate 12/31/23


Dolphins @ Ravens (-3) (U/O 47)

We may be watching a preview of the AFC Championship game here to kick off the Sunday slate. Miami rode into Baltimore with a long list of players on the injury report, with Jaylen Waddle already ruled out. Tyreek Hill should see even more volume, but the number-one-ranked Ravens’ defense will be ready for him. With Waddle off the field, Cedrick Wilson and Braxton Berrios make nice GPP options as Hill will draw most of the attention.

Although the total is pretty solid, the Baltimore DST($2,800 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) is a great price for a Tua-led offense that has been sketchy against solid opponents. Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and Isaiah Likely need no explanation for rostering, as they’ve been consistent pieces of the offense all year.

Update: Raheem Mostert is OUT

Niners @ Commanders (+13) (O/U 49.5)

Frisco smells blood in the water, after an embarrassing loss at home to the Ravens this past Monday night, they’ll look to take their frustration out on the league’s worst-ranked defense in Washington. Everyone in red and gold jerseys will be playable for DFS, but can we trust anyone in a Commanders’ uniform this weekend?

Quarterback Sam Howell has been benched for the rest of the year, allowing the veteran Jacoby Brissett to step in. His price allows a ton of cap space, as two-touchdown underdogs Brissett will have a busy arm come Sunday. He also seemed to favor tight end Logan Thomas last week, as he saw six targets in two-quarters of play, one of them caught on the paydirt.

Update: Brissett is a GTD, Sam Howell may get the start

Raiders @ Colts (-3.5) (O/U 43.5)

Vegas’s defense smothered the Chiefs at Arrowhead last weekend, and they’ll look to continue suffocating opposing offenses, so Minshew better be ready! Modestly priced for DFS on Draftkings ($3,000) and FanDuel ($3,900). If Vegas does get a lead, they’ll sit on the ball with Josh Jacobs, unless he misses his third straight game in which we’ll take Zamir White.

It appears Michael Pittman will make his return from a two-week concussion, giving the Colts a shot in the arm for offense productivity. He’s been a target monster for Gardner Minshew, seeing 45 targets in his last four games. A Severely underpriced WR 1 on DraftKings($7,500) and FanDuel($7,700) in a must-win game for the Colts to stay in playoff contention.

Update: Josh Jacobs is OUT

Rams @ Giants (+5.5) (O/U 45)

The white-hot Rams will fly into the Tri-State area and sit in a smash-spot matchup against a Giants’ secondary that has been exploited all season. Matt Stafford, his receivers, and Kyren Williams all get a boost facing a team that averages 24 points per game allowed with 363 total yards… Get your share of LA for DFS, the Rams need a W to stay alive.

Tommy Cutlets’ 15 minutes of fame is up, bringing back the veteran Tyrod Taylor under center again for Big Blue. LA is passer-friendly though (27th in DVOA), so a Rams’ stack with a Tyrod runback at his very cheap price tag ($4,600 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) is very tempting in GPP tournaments.

Patriots @ Bills (-13) (O/U 40.5)

Buffalo is a heavy favorite at home with plenty of motivation to move up the ladder in the AFC against a Pats team that seems to have mailed it in for 2023. There is no need to make a case for Josh Allen, of course, you pay up if your little heart desires. But as far as his teammates, it’s been a carousel for fantasy. Last week was Gabe Davis, and before that was James Cook. Is it finally Stefon Diggs’ weekend? I’d put money on it, as the Bills WR1 has been known to be vocal on getting the football.

As long as Belichick is in town for New England, he’ll do his best to make it competitive. The Pats DST ($2,300 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel) is min priced, and in an AFC division game we may see Allen turn the ball over, or a low-scoring affair. Punt the Pats D in DFS for GPPs.

Titans @ Texans (-5) (O/U 43.5)

The Texans will welcome back their rookie stud quarterback C.J. Stroud with open arms come Sunday, as they have desperately missed his production after missing the last two games from a concussion. The matchup couldn’t be any better either, as Tennessee remains a bottom-tier defense (28th in DVOA to opposing quarterbacks), which also gives an upgrade to Nico Collins and Noah Brown. All three are cash-game-friendly.

The Titans will get their regular starter back at quarterback too, Will Levis missed last weekend with an ankle sprain. Houston was dismantled in the secondary by Cleveland’s Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper just one week ago (208YDS/2TDS). Perhaps Levis and DeAndre Hopkins can rekindle their chemistry on the field in a weatherproof environment on the road, in Hopkins‘ old stomping ground of Houston.

Cardinals @ Eagles (-11) (O/U 48.5)

Philadelphia gets a cakewalk this weekend as they need to win out the season for a shot at the number one seed. The Cards, however, will play for pride as they’ve already been eliminated from contention. Kyler Murray continues to show up week to week for future employment, and the Eagles are the perfect landing spot, ranking 30th in the league defending against the pass. But he’ll be missing one of his primary targets Marquise Brown, in turn giving Trey McBride even more work and allowing more snaps to Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore. Let’s not forget running back James Connor is still on this team either, the dude has quietly averaged 20 fantasy points per game in his last three games, because of his role in the passing game.

The Eagles are anticipated to score at will on Arizona, going through Jalen Hurts, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and AJ Brown. D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell are viable as well against the Cardinals’ 29th-ranked run defense. Pick your poison in Philadelphia at home, and since their defense has been horrific lately, we can expect Kyler and the Cards to keep them honest.

Saints @ Bucs (-2.5) (O/U 42.5)

We’ve got an NFC South battle for the division in Tampa, and the Bucs aim to stay on top. Back in Week 4 Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin feasted heavily, but New Orleans held Mike Evans to only 7 fantasy points. Week 4 was a lifetime ago in the DFS world, so expect Big Mike to get right this time against the Saints, who’ve been slacking defensively as of late.

As good as the Bucs can light up the scoreboard, their secondary bleeds away big plays for opposing offenses (30th in DVOA to opposing receivers). Get those Saints wideouts in your builds, with Chris Olave and Rashid Shahid severely underpriced in this contest. Quarterback Derrick Carr also makes a nice contrarian play, with some low ownership for separation in GPPs.

Falcons @ Bears (-3) (O/U 38)

The total is gross, but I expect some fantasy fireworks out of Chicago and Justin Fields. The clock is ticking for a decision to be made for the Ohio State Alumni’s future, so we should see plenty of Fields scrambling at home. Last week he averaged nearly 10 yards per carry totalling 97 yards and a touchdown.

Falcons’ coach Arthur Smith continues to jeopardize his job by tinkering with his depth charts, especially at quarterback where Taylor Heinicke will once again get the start. But the Bears defense has stepped up in recent weeks, so I’m a little hesitant to roll out any Falcons in my lineups this weekend. Rolling out the Chicago DST could pay some big dividends this weekend with an offense led by Heinicke on the road.

Panthers @ Jaguars (-4) (O/U 38)

A game I would avoid here for DFS. We have the worst team in football going up against a Jaguars team who will be without Trevor Lawrence. The spread has dropped two and a half points since the news broke yesterday, and I kind of get the vibes that CJ Beathard may not be on the path to victory for Jacksonville. However back in Week 16, Beathard peppered wideout Calvin RIdley with nine targets, catching 6 of them for 90 yards and two touchdowns. Evan Engram saw even more volume with 15 targets that game, so both are worth a shot in tournaments. Running back Travis Etienne has been quiet lately, but the matchup is tremendous on paper against the Panthers (29th in DVOA), he deserves a nod as well.

The Jag’s defense has not been the same lock stock type since earlier in the season, so tread lightly in rolling them out for DFS against Carolina. They’ve allowed over 30 points in three of their last four games, so the Panthers will be on the scoreboard. Receiver DJ Chark went bonkers last week out of nowhere, catching two touchdowns for almost 100 yards. A dirt cheap option ($3,600 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) with a revenge game narrative against the team who drafted him.

Steelers @ Seahawks (-3.5) (O/U 41)

Two teams kick off the evening portion of the slate desperately needing a win to stay in the playoff hunt. On the road in Seattle will be a tough task for Mason Rudolph making his second start of the season. He was a gunslinger on Christmas weekend, refusing to check the ball down to his running backs and tight end. George Pickens had a career-high 195 receiving yards and could see a similar type of performance on Sunday if Rudoph can deliver.

Now if Seattle wants to pull off a win at home, they may need to rely on Geno Smith and the passing game, since Kenneth Walker is a game-time decision at running back. In Smith’s return in Week 16 from a groin injury, he was modest throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns. But a healthier Pittsburgh defense could give him a headache, keep an eye out on Walker’s status, if he’s out Zach Charbonnet will be a popular cash game name at his pricetag ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel).

Bengals @ Chiefs (-7) (O/U 44.5)

With all the distractions off the field, commercials, romances, etc… the Chiefs find themselves struggling to stay on top of the AFC West and likely making a rare road appearance in the upcoming playoffs. The Bengals at Arrowhead offer that get-right scenario for Mahomes and especially Travis Kelce, as Cincinnati refuses to defend the tight end position (31st in the NFL). A perfect pivot for tournaments in DFS, Kansas City may let some frustration out on the Bengals Sunday in primetime.

The Jake Browning train came to a screeching halt on the road in Pittsburgh last weekend, and it may still be derailed this weekend. Going up against that tough Kansas City Steve Spagnolo defense will be a tough task for the Cincinnati backup, so I’d steer away from any Bengals for DFS that is pricey. Perhaps a Trent Irwin or Tanner Hudson as dart throws in GPPs, since Tee Higgins and Ja’Maar Chase (if healthy) would see all the attention from the defense.

Chargers @ Broncos (-3.5) (O/U 37.5)

We’ve hit rock bottom to cap off the evening slate, as both teams in this AFC West contest have seemed to be waiving the white flags for 2023. It will be the battle of the backups between Easton Stick and the newly named starter Jarrett Stidham for Denver (Russell Wilson will no longer be cooking for the Broncos). It will be a wait-and-see approach in this contest, so be careful about investing too much in DFS for this game, especially since most of the starters will be out for both sides.

For LA, Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer appear to be done for the year due to injuries and Austin Ekeler is stuck in a timeshare with Josh Kelly and Isaiah Spiller. It will be the Quentin Johnston show for the Chargers, and well worth a punt in tournaments. Gerald Everett at the tight end should also be busy due to the shortage of pass catchers for LA, and the price is right ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel).

The Broncos’ receiving core is also pretty banged up with Courtland Sutton already ruled out and Jerry Jeudy questionable along with Marvin Mims. The Broncos may find themselves leaning heavily on running back Javonte Williams, who’ll draw a decent matchup (23rd in DVOA to running backs). Although if Jeudy and Mims do sit this one out, Brandon Johnson, Adam Trautman, and Lil’ Jordan Humphrey should see plenty of volume. All three will be salary relief, allowing us to spend up elsewhere in our builds.

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 17. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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NFLPremium

NFL Week 16 Christmas Day Slate

Ivan Herrera
written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the three game Christmas slate that the NFL has gifted us this season. Want to start off by saying happy holidays to everyone who celebrates one of the many traditions that occur this time of year. Hopefully all of you have had a wonderful weekend.

The purpose of this article is to break down the best plays both on the DFS and betting sides. The article will include my favorite plays and honorable mentions for every DFS position. You can also find my favorite bets under Drago’s Best Bets section at the end of the article.

The QBs:

Patrick Mahomes ($7500DK, $8300FD)

There is not much to say here. Mahomes is one of the best QBs in the NFL and is getting the Raiders on Christmas. In their first matchup, he scored 20+, and we should see a similar outing this week. The pricing for QB this week is pretty soft, so we don’t need to worry about spending a lot of salary on QB.

Who to pair him with: Travis Kelce. Rashee Rice

Brock Purdy ($6700DK, $7800FD)

Purdy is currently the favorite to win MVP, and this game will go a long way toward securing him the award. The game should be a shootout, despite both having solid defenses. Look for Purdy to get the ball out quickly with all his weapons around him. I lovehis price at 6.7K as well on DK.

Who to pair him with: Deebo Samuel. Brandon Aiyuk

Honorable Mentions: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts

The RBs:

Christian McCaffrey is always in play, so if you have the salary on either site to play him, go right ahead. The two I listed before are my favorites outside of CMC.

D’Andre Swift ($6,000 DK, $7500 FD)

The Eagles need to use Swift more. He has been a great piece of the offense, but they seem to abandon him as the game goes on. The game against the Giants is a great spot to start building his confidence as the Eagles head into the playoffs. The Giants rank 22nd against fantasy RBs, so if the Eagles give him a chance, he should put up great numbers.

Isaiah Pacheco ($6400DK, $7200FD)

For the past two weeks, Pacheco has been one of the best RBs in the NFL. He gets a favorable matchup against a Raider side, for whom he ran for 55 yards and two touchdowns in their first meeting. Both Pacheco and Swift are on offenses that have a star QB, but if they are both allowed to run, they’ll have great numbers.

Honorable Mentions: Josh Jacobs.

The WRs:

Davante Adams ($7300DK, $7500FD)

Since Week 9, Adams has averaged 6.6 receptions and 79 yards and has scored twice on 11 targets per game. KC should be up most of the game, so expect the Raiders to be pass heavy as the game goes on. And the biggest beneficiary of the increased passing will be Adams.

Deebo Samuel ($8700DK, $8300FD)

The WR version of McCaffrey. There isn’t much I can say about Deebo that hasn’t been said since he joined the league. The Niners vs. Ravens game is the highest on the slate, and both teams should play fast, so Samuel will have a lot of work. His teammate Brandon Aiyuk, who is more of a WR, should also be considered for Monday.

Devonta Smith ($5000DK, $7000FD)

The Eagles are riding a losing streak, but they are taking on a terrible pass defense to help them get out of it. While AJ Brown has been the better Eagle WR over the past couple of weeks, Smith has still put up solid numbers. The Giants allow the sixth-most catches to WRs, so expect both WRs to find success against them.

Honorable Mentions: AJ Brown. Brandon Aiyuk. Wan’Dale Robinson. Rashee Rice. Zay Flowers

The TEs

Isaiah Likely ($4200DK, $5900FD)

Since Mark Andrews injury against the Bengals on week 11, he is likely second to the Ravens with 19 targets, only one behind Zay Flowers. The Ravens are going to have a tough matchup against the Niners to close Week 16, so they will need to use all their weapons to win this game. While the Niners do have a strong defense, they are the second-worst team against TEs in fantasy. If Likely can continue his two-game streak of at least five receptions, 70 yards, and a touchdown, then he will be the best value on the slate, especially on DK.

Honorable Mentions: Travis Kelce. Dallas Goedert. George Kittle

Drago’s Best Bets:

  • SF ML
  • Eagles -13.5
  • Chiefs -10.5

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/nfl/

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NFLSports Betting

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Sixteen

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

Happy Holidays to the WinDaily family. No matter what you celebrate, we all are here for a common goal and that’s to win some extra spending cash. And we did that last week with a 4-1 record pushing us to +10.8 units on the season. And if you’ve been in Discord of late, I’m also 4-0 in College Bowl Games. So let’s see if we can build that stack even a little higher with our Week 16 NFL Picks.

The favorites ruled in Week 15 as they went 11-4-1 ATS. That’s almost a full reverse from the week prior when dogs covered over 60% of the games. The books have already started good in Week 16 and two dogs, the Steelers and Chargers, covered. And I expect more underdog outright’s today as every game in the 1:00 PM and 4:00 PM window has a spread of 4 points or less.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 38-26 (last week 4-1)

NFL BETS WEEK 16

CAROLINA PANTHERS +4 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

We’re going back to the well here in fading Green Bay. The Packers have lost two straight games as significant favorites. And they enter today against the Panthers as a solid favorite again. But they just haven’t played well in that role. Their only true win as a favorite was against the Rams when Brett Rypien was the starting QB.

As for Carolina, they’ve covered 2 of 3 since Frank Reich was fired. They’re also 3-3 ATS at home. And their strength, which isn’t much, is their pass D which is ranked 17th in DVOA (rushing D is 31st). Green Bay does not have a strong running game but ranks 5th in passing O DVOA. If you can’t attack Carolina on the ground, they’re able to hang in games. Combine that with the Packers recent discouraging play as a favorite and we have a good spot to back Carolina.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3 vs DETROIT LIONS

The Lions are looking to clinch the NFC North for the first time in 30 years. And they can do that today with a victory in Minnesota. But if we know anything about Detroit Lions football, nothing ever comes easy. First, the Vikings are in desperation mode as a loss today would likely push them out of playoff competition. Secondly, the Lions started the season with three impressive road victories. But since then, they are 2-2 away from home with their two wins coming by a combined 8 points (vs LAC and NO). Additionally, the Lions are just 2-2 in Division this year losing their last two games to NFC rivals.

The key will be the Vikings D and their ability to create pressure against Detroit. The Lions have allowed the 4th least sacks in the league. But the Vikings are 9th in the league with 41 sacks. Being able to get home against Goff could be the difference between a win and a loss. And if we know one thing, it’s that the Vikings are almost ensured to play a close game. So take the points, and I’d even advocate buying up to +3.5 (if you can keep the juice at -140 or lower).

ATLANTA FALCONS -2.5 vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Falcons are ready to post their job announcement for a new head coach. But before they do that, there is work to be done on the field as Atlanta still has an outside shot at the playoffs. New Orleans loss on Thursday has cracked open the door even wider for the Falcons and their fate is almost directly in their control. So they’ve done the unthinkable and switched their QB once again opting to go with Taylor Heineke. But for today’s game, I do think this is a good move as their opponent, the Colts, are vulnerable against both the pass and run. However, to beat Indy, you must be able to keep pace and gain positive yards in the passing game. And Heineke gives them the best chance to do that.

Additionally, the loss of Zach Moss and Michael Pittman can’t be fully quantified. Gardner Minshew relies on Pittman and without him, I foresee his risk taking to turn into turnovers. As much as I don’t like Arthur Smith, I do like money. And for that reason, I’m backing the Dirty Birds today.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -12.5 vs NEW YORK GIANTS

This game lines up to be a make-or-break game for the Philadelphia Eagles. They come into Monday’s game against New York on a 3-game losing streak and doubts are starting to rise throughout both the fan base and organization. There are reports this week that some people inside the Linc are concerned about Jalen Hurts and his ability to lead. Which is utter nonsense considering they gave him one of the biggest contracts in the NFL just 6 months ago. So this one game will be a test of wills as they will not only have to battle their rivals from the north, but will also have to shed the weight of losing.

And I expect the Eagles to bounce back with resilience this week. Once again, as it was last year with games against NY, the battle in the trenches is the reason the Eagles matchup so well against the Giants. Last season, Philadelphia went 3-0 against the Giants and outscored them 108-45. In those games, the Eagles ran for 656 yards averaging 219 per game. And on the other side, the Eagles pass rush should finally break loose against a Giants offensive line that has allowed the most sacks in the league at 76.

BONUS BET: NEW ENGLAND +13.5 / JACKSONVILLE +7.5

Adding another teaser for your holiday betting action.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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