NFL DFS

The end of the regular season is almost here. As we approach, some teams will play their hearts out while others will watch the play clock. These last couple of weeks will be crucial to the breakdown for DFS as we do not want to step on these landmines and only invest in teams with playoff desire rather than having their minds set on the offseason.

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 12/29/24

Jets @ Bills (-9.5) (O/U 46)

We start in the AFC East where the Jets fly upstate to Buffalo New York to take on the Bills. The home team will be heavy favorites again on a bitter-cold afternoon and aim to stay on the tails of the Chiefs for second place in the conference. New York, on the other hand, is a team we may want to avoid as they are totally out of the playoff picture and only looking for something to build on for next year.

Baltimore’s win on Christmas day puts them one game out of second place in the conference so Buffalo will be all business on the field this Sunday. The Jets’ defense has checked out and not played to their potential in the second half of the season, so look for Josh Allen to have a bounce-back game this week. His receivers will all be available, but running back James Cook has put up back-to-back 30-fantasy point weeks. If the game script plays out, Cook could have another solid outing against his price tag of $7,200 on DraftKings. Ray Davis at $4,200 is a decent value if you think this game really gets out of hand and the Bills take Cook off the field in the second half to let the rookie get some burn.

As I mentioned above, with only two games left in the season it will be very risky to invest in the starting Jets’ offense with nothing left in the tank, especially against a Bills’ defense looking to lock up the second seed. The locker room has been upside down with Garrett Wilson voicing his anger on social media about his role in the offense, and the backfield has become a three-headed monster with Hall, Allen, and Isaiah Davis all getting a piece of the pie. Breece Hall got the most reps with a 77% snap rate, and at only $6,300, it is a bargain if he can carve up the Bills’ defense that is still 30th in DVOA to opposing RBs.

Cash: Josh Allen

GPP: Bills DST, Breece Hall, James Cook, Ray Davis

Colts @ Giants (+8) (O/U 40.5)

Indianapolis will travel to the Metro Area as they look to secure a playoff berth against a home Giants team that continues to disappoint its fans. In 46 years have I never seen a Giants team so awful, its fans are chartering planes to fly banners over the stadium with messages to ownership of their disgust. The Colts will be the team to invest in for DFS this week, not Big Blue.

Jonathan Taylor made our write-up last week for GPPs but this week he’ll be a cash game play as the Giants’ defense has been a turnstile to opposing running backs, allowing over 142 yards rushing per game. Quarterback Anthony Richardson will also feast with his legs, along with the Colts’ DST. Richardson only attempted 11 passes last week and may repeat that performance if the Colts have their way.

The Drew Lock Giants were unbearable to watch last week, allowing two pick-sixes to Atlanta last Sunday. Now with their best weapon on offense missing practice all week, New York will be a full fade if Malik Nabers sits out. Tyrone Tracey at running back has been a stud lately, but he’s missed practice also this week with an ankle injury. Watch injury reports for New York this week but to be honest, I’d rather look elsewhere for DFS, New York is a team headed to the first pick in the draft.

Cash: Jonathan Taylor, Anthony Richardson, Colts DST

GPP: Josh Downs, Malik Nabers (if healthy), Tyrone Tracey (if healthy)

Update: Anthony Richardson has not practiced, Joe Flacco may get the start. Rain in the forecast, watch the weather. Richardson now OUT.

Cowboys @ Eagles (-7.5) (O/U 43)

We’ll now check into the NFC East in a divisional lopsided matchup between the Cowboys and Eagles. Philadelphia’s spread continues to drop going from 9 to 7.5 points over the past two days because of Jalen Hurts missing practice. Bad news for Philly fans if he misses this week’s juicy matchup, but good news for us in DFS.

Jalen Hurts in the concussion protocol provides us a clearer path to figuring out the Eagles’ game plan this Sunday against the league’s 30th-ranked defense. Run the ball with Saquon, or drop back to throw out to AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith. If backup quarterback Kenny Pickett can shake a rib injury he suffered on Sunday, he can also be a good start for GPPs with his mid-$5K pricetag. But if neither Hurts nor Pickett can roll out, Philly will be down to a third-stringer sixth-round pick Tanner McKee to make his first career start at quarterback.

Dallas is officially out of playoff contention, so don’t be surprised if we see CeeDee Lamb and the rest of the starter’s reps begin to dwindle this Sunday. Their second and third-string players may also be facing a very dominating top-five defense at home. The only play I can see happening when the Dallas offense is on the field is to start the Eagles DST for DFS, and are very affordable on DraftKings at $3,100.

Cash: Saquon Barkley, Eagles DST

GPP: Kenny Pickett (if healthy), AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, all Cowboys are risky

Update: Jalen Hurts is Out. Watch the weather for some rain. Pass catchers and quarterbacks could be downgraded. Both defenses grade up in heavy rain. CeeDee Lamb is OUT.

Panthers @ Bucs (-8) (U/O 49.5)

The aspiring Panthers will make their way into Tampa for an NFC South matchup against the Bucs. Carolina continues to play better each week and is gaining confidence by recently defeating the Cardinals, eliminating them from the playoffs. Will lightning strike twice this week as they face a Bucs team in contention for the division? Only time will tell in what seems to be a fun-to-watch game.

Tampa’s defense has been thrown on all season long, so why stray away from a $5,600 Bryce Young on DraftKings? He put up 27 FPTS. last week and 23 back in Week 13 against this same Bucs defense that has zero pass rushers capable of putting on the pressure. Adam Thielen has been his preferred weapon of choice when not handing it off to Chuba Hubbard. All three are viable in cash or GPPs.

It’s do or die for the Bucs at home, so Baker and the crew will be all hands on deck to gain a Wild Card slot or Division Title. Carolina has been a doormat for opposing offenses all year except for the last couple of weeks where they have given teams like the Eagles a run for their money. Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, and especially Bucky Irving who draws the best DVOA matchup of 32nd to opposing running backs. Bucs need to win, for DFS these studs are good to go.

Update: Watch the weather, there could be a washout with rain. Quarterbacks and receivers may be affected. Defenses get a bump up.

Cash: Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Adam Thielen

GPP: Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, Jalen McMillan, Baker Mayfield, Payne Durham

Update: Chuba Hubbard placed on IR; Raheem Blackshear and Mike Boone are on deck. Cade Otton is OUT

Titans @ Jaguars (-1) (O/U 41)

Welcome to one of my favorite games on the slate. Two teams totally with nothing to play for that each have awful defenses. No pressure for Tennessee as they travel to Jacksonville in a contest that will just be about the players breaking a sweat. Here we can find plenty of value in the skill positions where we then can pay up in the worthier games on the slate.

Mason Rudolph started out slow last week in Indianapolis but tore it up in the second half to finish with over 17 fantasy points. If he should have a repeat performance, that’s a 3X value and a paydown at quarterback option. He’s tethered his targets to tight end Chig Okonkwo (21 in his last two games), but all of his teammates are worth a shot in DFS at their low prices. But watch the weather, if it downpours, stick to running back Tyjae Spears who’s taking over the backfield for the Titans (9 receptions, 3 touchdowns in his last two games). Tennessee is a GPP team to aim for.

The other side of the coin features one Jaguar only, and that’s Brian Thomas Jr. He’s put up Justin Jefferson-type numbers in his last two games (31.25/35.5 DKFPTS), but with the possible rain and tough matchup lining up across from Chidobe Awuzie, his $6,800 tag on DraftKings may be too risky. Jonathan Taylor obliterated the Titans on foot last week, consider Tank Bigsby a safer and cheaper play at running back for Jacksonville, especially in the possible weather. Both defenses are also in play since each team is also turnover-prone.

Cash: Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears

GPP: Mason Rudolph, Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tank Bigsby, Brian Thomas

Update: Tony Pollard is OUT

Raiders @ Saints (-1) (O/U 39.5)

Here’s another stinker, except this one will be weatherproof in the Big Easy as the Raiders take on the Saints. For the second game in a row, it will be two teams with bottom-ranked defenses playing for pride. I’m only looking to pay down in this spot, not pay up for DFS. Let’s check out who we can stomach in this matchup.

As the Saints begin to get healthier, another key player bites the dust. Chris Olave may return after being out for eight weeks, along with MVS, but Alvin Kamara will be out of the lineup once again. Kendre Miller faced a stacked box and Rattler was useless in the Saints’ 34-0 loss on Monday Night. The Raiders DST is a cash game play this week priced at only $2,600 on DraftKings.

Aiden O’Connell had a juicy matchup in his past two starts but continues to drop the ball for us in DFS. We’ll focus on the Raiders’ running game in this contest, as the Saints allow close to 140 yards per game rushing. It’s a split backfield, but Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah continue to find the endzone and passing targets from Captain Checkdown O’Connell. Tight end Brock Bowers made his way back to fantasy relevance catching 11 balls for 99 yards. but as the highest-priced tight end on the slate, he’s a GPP lock for low ownership.

Cash: Raiders DST

GPP: Brock Bowers, Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah

Dolphins @ Browns (+6.5) (O/U 40)

We enter the late afternoon games with a Miami team playing out of desperation to make the playoffs as they are on the bubble. They’ll head north up to Cleveland to battle a Browns team on the outskirts of the league and with spoiler intentions at home. Weather may also be a factor as well in Ohio, so keep an eye on the forecast if you’re looking for a piece of this action.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson will get his second start at home after a lackluster passing performance in his debut, completing only 58% of his passes for just under 160 yards and two picks. The forecast could make it even worse for the Browns as they’re offense could be at another standstill this week. Jerome Ford was the only game in town last week and could see another heavy workload this Sunday. With Chubb on IR and zero passing capability in Cleveland, Ford scored 24 and 18 fantasy points in his last two games.

Miami needs a win with some help to sneak into the post season, and it’s a win that can be taken by their defense easily. If they can contain Cleveland from advancing the football with DTR under center, we could see another solid De’Von Achane performance (190 total yards and a touchdown in Week 16). The Bengals’ Chase Brown gashed this checked-out Browns defense last week, Achane can easily do the same if better. Again keep an eye on the weather here, Jonnu Smith is another Dolphin in the mix as a top tight end in a much needed win.

Cash: De’Von Achane, Miami DST

GPP: Jonnu Smith, Jerome Ford

Update: Tua is doubtful

Packers @ Vikings (-1.5) (O/U 49)

Finally we wrap it up with the best for last game on the Main Slate. Get your shares of the Packers as they face the Vikings in a very important NFC North matchup where both sides are chasing a win to keep up in the division. It may be raining or snowing out in Minnesota on Sunday, but it doesn’t make a difference in the dome of US Bank Stadium. The last time these two twams met a total of 60 points were put up, Here’s where to target:

Minnesota will have to win out and hope for a Lions loss in hopes of taking first place in the conference with a one week bye. Regardless of matchups, all the key Vikings are in play, especially running back Aaron Jones. For only $6,200 on DraftKings, he’ll be on the field for every play possible against his former team, in which he ran for 93 yards and caught for 46 yards with a touchdown back in Week 3.

Green Bay has been riding the Josh Jacobs train all season long and rightfully so (1,216 rushing yards, 14 TDS). However if the Vikes get out to another early lead like they did back in Week 4, Jordan Love will need to get to work in the passing game. Pay attention carefully to Christian Watson’s recent injury that has kept him out of practice all week. If he’s out, than Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed climb the totem pole at receiver, while Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft gain ground in the target share.

Cash:Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson

GPP: Sam Darnold, Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, TJ Hockenso

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 17! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!

Welcome back to another Main Slate Breakdown as we approach the end of the regular season. We underestimated the skill of Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans against that tough Chargers defense, but still hit on plenty of plays for DFS in our last article. Stone Smartt along with the entire Bills/Lions game was a cashed ticket if you went that route. Let’s get right into Week 16 now, as there’ll be plenty of changes in some of the offenses this week, particularly at quarterback.

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 12/22/24

Eagles @ Commanders (+3) (O/U 45.5)

We start off with a monster matchup within the NFC East, as the Eagles, who are in first place, will travel to the Capitol to face the Commanders. Both clubs are stacked on each side of the football, so it should be a slugfest in D.C. We’ll want to invest in this game for DFS since it will be all hands on deck for control of the division.

Philly will keep it down to their business as usual in the offense. The volume increased significantly to DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown in targets with the loss of Dallas Goedert to IR, seeing 19 of 23 passing attempts in the game. Bottom line, Head Coach Nick Siriani wants to run the damn ball with Hurts and Barkley (34 Attempts against Pittsburgh). Use these four only for cash games or GPPs.

Jayden Daniels has made a strong case for OROTY as he has completed 75% of his passes in 14 games and ranks second in the league in rushing yards amongst quarterbacks with six rushing touchdowns. However, he’s down to the bare bones at receiver with Terry McLaurin as the last man standing with Zach Ertz suffering a concussion last week. Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, and Olamide Zaccheaus will see some uptick this week if Ertz is out, and Brian Robinson will still own the backfield in a tough matchup (7th best run defense). Ben Sinnott and John Bates will split the reps at tight end also if Ertz misses time, some great GPP options in Washington.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels

GPP: Terry McLaurin, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Brian Robinson, and Any other Commanders named above if Ertz is out.

Browns @ Bengals (-7) (O/U 48)

Next, we check in on another division game except this one will be for bragging rights, not playoff contention. These two AFC North clubs have been awful on defense this year, but only the Bengals have the firepower to back it up. Cincinnati will host Cleveland in a DFS algorithm that we adore of when two opposing bottom-of-the-barrel defenses collide. The total is near 50, so let’s dive in.

Joe Burrow continues to light up the scoreboard with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals also have Chase Brown in the backfield who has now established himself as their RB 1, looking like a young Austin Ekeler averaging five catches per game. The Browns’ defense has not as it used to be falling to 26th in the league and averaging 24 points allowed per game. All four Bengals are solid plays this week in your cash or GPP lineups as they sit on top of the NFL in scoring and moving the chains,

Say it ain’t so coach. Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski has seen enough of Jameis Winston, benching him for Dorian Thompson-Robinson. This news delivers daggers to our usage of Jerry Jeudy and the rest of the receiving options in Cleveland. DTR will have some rushing upside, however, at $4,800 on DraftKings it may be an option to use him solo against the second-to-last-ranked defense in Cincinnati. Running back Jerome Ford is another Browns guy I’d be willing to pay $5,600 on DK this week, as he’ll get the start with Nick Chubb done for the year. Both are GPP-only starts.

Cash: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown

GPP: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jerome Ford

Rams @ Jets (+3.5) (O/U 46.5)

Here we get an East Coast-West Coast matchup as the Rams travel across the country to square off against the Jets. LA has been on a roll, taking over first place in their division and playing some lights-out football. New York got their first win after losing their last four contests, and will aim to keep the momentum to close out the year.

The Jets’ defense is falling apart at the seams, allowing Mac Jones and the Jaguars to put up 25 points in a game that went down to the final plays. Matt Stafford will be chomping at the bit to fire away this Sunday against this secondary, and Kyren Williams could be leaving his tread marks all over the Meadowlands as the Jets allow over 121 yards per game on the ground. The Rams will play to win in order to keep first place locked up in the NFC West.

Aaron Rodgers has finally made his way back to the top of the QB rankings after two and a half years thanks to a miserable Jaguars defense and some pep in his step with his Netflix documentary airing soon. He’s still a diva, but as long as he puts up some numbers for our lineups, we’ll give him a pass. He threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns in Week 15, with 198 of the yards and nine catches with two scores going to the apple of his eye Davante Adams. Both are viable again in GPPs this week along with Garrett Wilson who may be force-fed after being left out of the mix last week with only three receptions.

Cash: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua

GPP: Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Cooper Kupp, Breece Hall

Cardinals @ Panthers (+4) (U/O 47)

Next, we have Arizona heading to the Carolinas to get back into the win column against the Panthers, a team we have picked on all season. The Cardinals are hanging by a thread to get a Wild Card spot while the Panthers seem to be building some chemistry towards the end of the season, especially on offense. We’ll see some value at key positions for DFS, let’s check them out.

Kyler Murray has fallen all the way down to $6,100 on DraftKings due to his underwhelming performances but has become a cash-game quarterback this week thanks to his matchup. Trey McBride, James Conner, and Marvin Harrison Jr. will also see a bump in ownership as they will all face the worst-ranked defense all around the league. All will be popular for cash and tournaments this weekend.

The Panthers are beginning to click on offense, but the injuries continue to pile up, unfortunately. Bryce Young has put up decent numbers for his low salary in the $5K range on DraftKings for the past three weeks, but with only Chuba Hubbard and Adam Thielen as the only guys off the injury report so far, he’ll be too risky. Thielen and Hubbard are the only safe plays for DFS for volume and availability on the slate. Cash and GPP will be fine for both.

Cash: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Adam Thielen

GPP: Trey McBride, Chuba Hubbard, Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals DST

Lions @ Bears (+7) (O/U 45.5)

We get ready for another divisional matchup here as the Lions head over to the Windy City to take on the Bears. Detroit has continuously lit up the scoreboard for the month of December while Chicago’s wheels have fallen off for the season. Dan Campbell will be looking to lock up a top seed in the Conference, as the Eagles and Vikings share a record of 12-2 with them, it’ll be a needed victory on the road for Detroit.

In Detroit’s quest for the Super Bowl, they’ll be without David Montgomery who suffered a possible season-ending knee injury this past Sunday. This injury will force Jahmyrr Gibbs into a heavy workload as well as DFS lineups in one of the most prolific offenses in football. A cash game darling will be Gibbs at $7,500 on DraftKings facing a Bears’ defense that has allowed well over 130 yards per game rushing and is 28th in DVOA. ARSB, Goff, Jame-O, and La Porta are also in play, and if you are looking to get different, Craig Reynolds should see some work replacing Montgomery at RB, he’s min-priced at $4K on DraftKings and could be a sleeper if Detroit runs away in this game and he gets garbage- time work.

The last time these two teams met was on Thanksgiving when we witnessed Caleb Williams come to life in the second half to put up a 256/3 stat line, with 39 yards rushing and giving him 26 fantasy points. Detroit’s defense has taken a hit due to injuries and continues to allow opposing offenses to march into the endzone. Williams holds an argument for consideration in lineups priced at only $5,600 on DK, and pairing him with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore makes even more sense at their salaries. Chicago will lean me towards tournament plays instead of cash games.

Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

GPP: Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Sam LaPorta, Cole Kmet, Jameson Williams, Craig Reynolds

Titans @ Colts (-4.5) (O/U 42.5)

Another divisional game on the slate, this time it’s in the AFC South as the Colts close in on a playoff berth hosting Tennessee. Their schedule will help tremendously as they close out the season, starting with the 3-11 Titans that rank 27th in the league in points allowed per game (25.8). However, the Colts are no strangers to allowing their opponents in the endzone as well so Tennessee will also be a team to consider this week.

Anthony Richardson will see his first and only look at a Titans’ defense that has been thrown at all year due to their passion for clogging up running lanes for their opposition. Although his efficiency has been all over in the passing department, his rushing upside has gained some momentum scoring in his last two starts. His price on DraftKings is still affordable at $5,400 as well as his receivers are both priced in the same ballpark. Jonathan Taylor is even back under $7K this week, just on the discount alone I can see using any of these guys at home against Tennessee.

As I mentioned above, the Colts do give up the goods themselves, allowing an average of 140-plus yards per game rushing. When their opponents get going in that department, thus their passing lanes open up. Now Mason Rudolph will take the reigns once again for the benched Will Levis, and he’s put up 15-plus fantasy points in three of his five starts this year. I would keep him in GPPs but Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard (if healthy) would be cash-game options because of the injuries and possible unavailability of the Titans’ offense.

Cash: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard (if healthy, otherwise Tyjae Spears)

GPP: Anthony Richardson, Mason Rudolph, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor

Giants @ Falcons (-8) (O/U 41)

The 7-7 Falcons will welcome the 2-12 Giants in a much-needed win for Atlanta to keep up the pace with the first-place Bucs. The Giants will be happy to help the cause as they aim to grab a top pick in next year’s draft and continue to get crushed by opposing offenses. Except Atlanta’s offense will be a new one this week with the benching of Kirk Cousins for First Round Draft Pick Michael Penix.

Atlanta shocked the NFL world by taking Penix eighth overall in this year’s draft, and we’ll see perhaps why they did when he takes the field Sunday in a fully weaponized offense against one of the worst defenses in the league. He’s dirt cheap at $4,500 on DK, making him a risky tournament move as he debuts into the NFL. His passing options will also be high-risk, high-reward options like London, Pitts, and Mooney. Bijan Robinson is the only safe, cash-game play this week against a Giants’ run defense that gets gashed for 143 per game on average.

The quarterback carousel continues to spin in New York as Drew Lock gets back under center this week. Atlanta’s DVOA has been morbid, falling to 29th in DVOA to opposing wide receivers. Malik Nabers remains the focal point of the offense as he’s averaging 12 targets per game in December. Tyrone Tracy has been right behind his rookie teammate hogging all the carries in the backfield. Both are priced affordably and can be used in cash or GPPs, but Drew should be considered an extreme risk because of his recent play and availability to complete an entire game.

Cash: Bijan Robinson, Malik Nabers

GPP: Michael Penix, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, Tyrone Tracy

Vikings @ Seahawks (+3.5) (O/U 42.5)

Minnesota looks to keep up with Detroit for first place in the division and will need a win in Seattle to do so. The Seahawks will also have a sense of urgency as they are trying to keep up with the Rams in their division. Both teams’ playoff fates will be at stake in Seattle, so expect the defenses to step it up a notch.

Geno Smith left Sunday night’s loss with a knee injury that seemed at the moment he would be missing some time. Well, he’s back to full practice and in line to start on Sunday, so scratch a Sam Howell start. Minnesota ranks 2nd overall on defense, allowing fewer points, but you may still be able to throw on their secondary. They are dead last in DVOA to opposing wideouts and allow almost 250 yards per game by the pass. Both JSN and DK Metcalf will be a huge value and should see plenty of targets, especially if Minnesota gets rolling early. The Seattle backfield may be getting Kenneth Walker back too, but it could be without Zach Charbonnet. The situation must be monitored for a potential bell-cow opportunity in Seattle.

If and when Minnesota does get on a scoring binge, it would be by the arm of Sam Darnold and the legs of Aaron Jones. The Seahawks allow close to 130 yards per game, and the Vikes love to feed Jones the rock as he holds a 78% carry rate when he’s on the field. Jones scored three times in his last four games and offers a high ceiling for GPPs while pivoting away from the Jahmyr Gibbs chalk. Justin Jefferson, TJ Hock, and Jordan Addison are also solid plays for Week 16.

Cash: Justin Jefferson, Kenneth Walker (If Charbonnet is OUT)

GPP: Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, DK Metcalf, Jaxson Smith Njigba, Aaron Jones, TJ Hockenson

Update: Charbonnet and Walker off injury report

Patriots @ Bills (-14) (O/U 46.5)

Buffalo will welcome the Patriots into an AFC East matchup and as 14-point underdogs this week in Vegas. Buffalo has been playing lights out thanks to MVP frontrunner Josh Allen. New England has their work cut out for them and are already out of the playoff hunt, but don’t expect them to lay down without a fight in this divisional matchup.

Start your Bills for DFS, as they are the hottest team in football. The Pats have been whooped on all year by high-caliber offenses, so, by all means, do not hold back due to the point spread. Their defense also gets a green light being the spread is two touchdowns and the rookie Drake Maye could be pressured into making some difficult passes. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson are also great plays for GPPs as if this game does get out of hand, they’ll see more runs than starter James Cook.

The Pats are in for an uphill battle from the looks of the Vegas lines, but hats off to the rookie Drake Maye. Not only has he averaged a completion percentage of 70% in his rookie year, but he’s managed some usage with his feet, racking up 359 yards with two scores. Another off-the-radar play for tournaments is Maye, but if this game gets off-script and is close, consider Rhamondre Stevenson. The Bills refuse to be beaten downfield on defense and will allow the run. It’s possibly why they’re ranked 31st in the league’s DVOA.

Cash: Josh Allen

GPP: Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Bills DST, Ray Davis

Niners @ Dolphins (-1.5) (O/U 46)

San Fransisco travels to Miami for one last push to get into the postseason; however, the Dolphins themselves have a window of playoff hopes, too. The Niners finally catch a break in sunny Florida after three weeks of brutal weather, but the injuries keep piling up. The Dolphins have also been bitten by the injury bug, and they’ll be without some key players. But with injuries we find value for DFS, so let’s dive in.

Jaylen Waddle will not suit up this Sunday, which will send more targets to Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, and De’Von Achane from Tua Tagovailoa. However, Tyreek will need to line alongside other receivers before the ball is snapped, and it will be Malik Washington, the rookie out of Virginia. He saw 59% of the snaps upon Waddle’s departure last week and caught five balls for 58 yards. He’s only $3,700 on DraftKings, which is a nice saving on a WR2 in a high-powered offense.

The Niners will be down to their fourth-string running back with Isaac Guerendo being ruled out with a foot and hamstring injury. Patrick Taylor is the next man up at only $5,200 on DraftKings, although I’d rather take another shot on Deebo Samuel who’ll also see some carries and targets with the same price tag. He’s yet to explode this season for a big game, and this may be the one. George Kittle has been a monster for the offense and has everyone’s eye for DFS every week averaging over 16 fantasy points per game.

Cash: George Kittle, Jonnu Smith, De’Von Achane

GPP: Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Malik Washington, Deebo Samuel, Patrick Taylor

Jaguars @ Raiders (-1) (U/O 40.5)

Finally, to wrap up the slate we’ll tap into two of the bottom teams in the league going head-to-head in Vegas. Jacksonville will travel to Sin City to battle the Raiders in a meaningless game from a playoff perspective, but fantasy-wise could be interesting as players will be on the field looking to pad their stat sheet.

The Jags put up some decent yardage and cashed in on scoring opportunities last week against the Jets, so why not run it back against another bottom-tier defense in Vegas? Mac Jones is still dirt cheap along with Brian Thomas and tight end Brenton Strange who caught 11 of 12 targets for 73 yards and is still only $3,500 on DraftKings. All three Jags make nice GPP options along with running backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby.

Vegas will get their best matchup of the season facing a defense equally as bad as theirs. They’ll get Aiden O’Connell back under center finally after suffering a leg injury in Week 14. That’s great news for Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers this week, who will see plenty of better-quality targets against a Jags DVOA of 31st to opposing wide receivers. The Raiders may split carries between Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah, the latter however is more used in the passing game. I don’t mind either one facing a team that allows over 130 yards rushing and ranks 30th in the league defending the position.

Cash: Brock Bowers, Brenton Strange

GPP: Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas, Mac Jones, Aiden O’Connell, Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah, Raiders DST

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 16! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!