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NFL DFS

NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT – WEEK 15 MAIN SLATE DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 14 was a confounding week for RB’s as we saw just 6 backs go for more than 20 DK points. And 6 of the top 12 RB’s had ownership values of 2% or less (McKinnon, Mack, Hubbard, Dobbins, etc). But Week 15 is here and brings us some juicy running matchups that we’re eager to pounce on.

Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out the NFL Pre Lock Show on Sunday at 11am on YouTube.

As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K).

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

DERRICK HENRY $8000 DraftKings $9500 FanDuel

Derrick Henry got back to his King ways last week as he rushed for over 100 yards for the first time in 5 weeks. While the Titans lost their 3rd game in a row to the Jags, it’s obvious they need to re-focus their offensive game plan to get Henry the ball more. He’s seen just an average 17.5 touches per game in their 3 game losing streak. But this week they face the Chargers who are 28th against the run allowing 147 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee’s offense is just 20th in rush DVOA but when Henry has faced a rushing defense in the bottom half of the league in DVOA, he’s averaging 21.1 DK points per game. With this game being played in LA, and no real threat of bad weather, this projects to be a big game for the NFL’s 2nd leading rusher.

JOSH JACOBS $8100 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

Josh Jacobs is in a groove at the perfect time for season long fantasy owners. He’s put up an average game score of 27.9 points over the last 5 weeks. And he’s now the leading fantasy scorer for RB’s in the league. While he got dinged up last game against the Rams, he was able to finish. Additionally, that was a Thursday night game so he’s had some extra days to heal. He faces New England this week and they allow the 2nd least points to RB’s in the league. But they did just allow 23.4 fantasy points to James Conner on MNF. And they’ve allowed some big games to RB’s earlier in the season (i.e. Aaron Jones) but have not seen much quality at that position as not one team in the AFC East has a rusher in the top 18 in the league!

So don’t fear the matchup but instead take the consistent runner who will be able to put up points as long as he’s healthy heading into this game.

TONY POLLARD $7100 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

This is the first time all season that Tony Pollard has made the Tier 1 price range as he shot over $7K for Week 15. But that won’t stop us from riding the Pollard train as he continues to produce big numbers week in and week out. Since Dak Prescott returned in Week 7, Pollard has averaged 25.2 DK points and that’s over a span of 7 games. His carries went down last week but that’s because they got off script with the Texans hanging in the game. The Cowboys face Jacksonville this week who allow the 10th most points to RB’s and are 16th in the league in rush DVOA. Pollard should be able to once again find space and score from distance which will ultimately lead to another big day for the Dallas RB.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JAMES CONNER $6900 DraftKings $8400 FanDuel

Kyler Murray’s injury soured a night and game that the Cardinals should have won on Monday vs. New England. But it’s now Colt McCoy’s team which should mean it’s a more balanced running game for the Cardinals. James Conner has looked good all year but in particular the last two games where he’s rushed for 205 yards on 40 carries. He’s facing the Broncos this week who just allowed 34 points to the Chiefs and 35.4 DK points to RB Jerrick McKinnon. The Broncos have allowed an average of 123 yards rushing per game over the past month. I believe Conner will find space in the running game but also be very effective in the passing game which will put him in prime position to have a big game on Sunday.

ALVIN KAMARA $6800 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Kamara has been one of the biggest busts of this fantasy season. He has only 550 yards rushing in 12 games and surpassed 62 yards in a game just twice. But have some faith because today he has the Falcons and the potential for a huge game. Let’s remember, Kamara gave us two huge games this year and the “milli-maker” lineups rostered him those weeks. So the potential is there, the opponent is there and the price is good. Atlanta is 28th in rush defense DVOA and allows the 20th most points to RB’s. They’ve allowed a rusher to go for 85 yards or more in 5 straight games. And the Saints still have a small glimpse of playoff life so they’ll play with urgency which should mean a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara today.

MILES SANDERS $6500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Miles Sanders polished off the Giants last week and also put a bow on his season. He ran for 144 yards which put him at 1068 yards on the year making it his first 1000 yard season. And now he gets to face the weak rushing defense of the Chicago Bears who rank 29th in rush defense DVOA. The only negative with Sanders is that he isn’t a factor in the passing game as he has just 18 receptions this year (41st amongst RB’s). But this game shapes up to be similar to the Green Bay game a few weeks ago where the Eagles focus on the run and try to dominate the line of scrimmage versus an undermanned defense. And just so you know, Sanders ran for 143 yards and 34 DK points versus Green Bay. Smash the Sanders button this week.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ISIAH PACHECO DraftKings $5600 FanDuel $6600

The Chiefs rookie RB has been a steady contributor in the last month averaging 14.9 DK points in his last 4 games. While Jerrick McKinnon turned into the fantasy superstar last week, Pacheco still had 13 carries for 70 yards and saw 47% of the snaps. But that game turned into more of an aerial event than predicted due to Denver’s success against the KC defense. I don’t see that happening this week with Houston. The Chiefs should be able to create separation and then rely on the running game to close it out. And that will be a perfect game plan for Pacheco against the league’s 32nd ranked run defense in the Texans. Don’t sleep on the momentum Pacheco has built up in the last month as I like him much more than McKinnon this week.

ZONOVAN KNIGHT DraftKings $4600 FanDuel $6400

Even though Michael Carter returned last week, Zonovan Knight had 17 carries to Carter’s 5. The snap count was actually in Carter’s favor though as he outsnapped Knight 50% to 47%. But this week is the return of Zach Wilson and I believe we could see both back have a solid game today. That’s because the Jets will not go crazy in the passing game due to the lack of trust they have in Wilson. And their opponent, Detroit, is allowing the 26th most rushing yards in the league. I’ll put my trust in Knight and his recent production (15.3 fantasy ppg) against a team that has historically been soft against RB’s.

NFL DFS BONUS PICKS

My bonus pick this week is anyone healthy in New England’s backfield. It’s looking like RHAMONDRE STEVENSON ($6900 DK) will miss the game. So if that’s the case I’m looking at PIERRE STRONG ($4000 DK) to have a big game against a soft Raiders D. Las Vegas is 18th in rush defense DVOA and would be worse except for the fact they are 32nd in pass defense DVOA. We know New England’s recipe to win is to create turnovers on and run the ball on O. And while they’re doing that, they like to showcase players you’ve never heard of. Which is exactly where Strong falls in as he comes from the Roadrunners of South Dakota State as a 4th round pick in the 2022 draft. So let’s roll with the unknown and maybe see a $4K RB pop along the way.

RB PROP BETS

MILES SANDERS Anytime TD (-125 DK)

ISIAH PACHECO anytime TD (-110 DK)

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL DFS Week 15: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another fantastic week for the Win Daily family in Week 14! Our gross punt-play in GPPs of Russell Wilson paid off big time to offset the massive letdown from Dalvin Cook. Let’s keep it rolling for our Week 15 NFL DFS cash game and GPP breakdown. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD) – Hurts is the frontrunner for MVP (in my opinion) and playing at an elite level with both his arm and his legs. He’s the clear top-option at the quarterback position and his salary reflects that. The Bears’ are the walking wounded on both sides of the football and will offer little resistance to this Eagles offense as a whole. Hurts is an elite option for both NFL DFS cash and GPP tournaments.

Stack Options: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Miles Sanders
Run-Back Options: Cole Kmet, Naked (no run-back)
Justin Herbert ($7,200 DK / $8,300 FD) – Another week of picking on the Titans’ pass-funnel defense leads us to one of my favorite quarterbacks in all of football. Justin Herbert has averaged over 48 pass attempts per game in the last three weeks, lol! The volume and healthy wide receiving core leaves Herbert in the “nut” matchup for quarterbacks against the Titans’ 28th ranked pass defense (DVOA). He is my overall best value/upside option for both cash games and GPP lineups.

Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett
Run-Back Options: Derrick Henry, Chig Okonkwo
Dak Prescott ($6,200 DK / $7,500 FD) – Prescott is in another fantastic matchup this week and should be primed up to make a statement after a disaster of a game against the Houston Texans last week. The Jaguars defense is a bit-banged up and grade 30th in pass defense DVOA. My only concern with Prescott is the Cowboys’ red-zone offense is built around the running backs and are always a threat to steal the touchdown production, but that is football. The price is right with Prescott in this matchup and we may even get an additional boost with Tyron Smith expected to return from IR.

Stack Options: CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup, Tony Pollard
Run-Back Options: Christian Kirk
Tom Brady ($5,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – The gross, value play of the week! The recent strategy of using these value quarterbacks to afford the top-tier studs in good game environments (Davante Adams and St. Brown in Week 13 / Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, and St. Brown in Week 14) has been extremely successful for me the past two weeks and I’m going to continue to build that way. Sure, some of those studs above didn’t have smash games, but I’m getting 60+ points out of those combinations on a weekly basis that I can’t really get elsewhere.

Unlike my last two value quarterbacks for my NFL DFS GPP lineups (Kenny Pickett and Russell Wilson), Tom Brady does not have a rushing floor that I used to support my rostering of Pickett and Wilson. Having said that, Tom Brady does have something no one on this slate has other than maybe Patrick Mahomes (likely not in this matchup against Houston) and Justin Herbert have… Volume.

If you’re telling me I’ll lose 20+ rushing yards when rostering Brady over the likes of Kenny Pickett or Russell Wilson, but gain 12+ pass attempts (picture below)… I think that is a fine wash, if not, advantage to Tom Brady. At $5,500 and $6,800 on FanDuel, we do not need Brady to be that good when we have that type of volume.

Yes, this offense has looked horrendous lately, but the Bengals will likely be without their best pass rusher in Trey Hendrickson and their top cover-corner, Mike Hilton. This situation would be absolute sex on the beach if Tristan Wirfs can suit up for the Bucs, but it doesn’t sound like that will be the case. I’ll take the savings and low ownership that Brady offers in hopes he can go for 18+ at home against a depleted Bengals’ defense.

Stack Options: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Julio Jones (punt-value if he plays)
Run-Back Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon

The AETY Model Projects Brady for 44.9 Pass Attempts in Week 15

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes

NFL DFS Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8,000 DK / $8,900 FD) – By far the safest running back on this slate going up against the Chargers’ run defense (25th in run defense DVOA). In terms of overall projected touches, Derrick Henry leads the AETY Model projections just in front of Josh Jacobs and James Conner. This is a fantastic matchup and a nice fantasy football environment in what should be an up-paced game in Los Angeles. Henry is a lock in cash games but potentially worthy of a fade in GPPs as he will likely be 40% owned… I’m not sure I have the stomach to fade him in any format.
Joe Mixon ($7,200 DK / $8,100 FD) – Our concerns with Mixon sharing time with Samaje Perine were warranted last week as this was the first time all season Mixon fell below a 65% snap-share while healthy. Perine was not utilized much in the running game but he did get into the end-zone to upset all of the Mixon chalk fantasy players last week. NFL DFS is a game that we can really take advantage of people’s emotions and I’ll bet Mixon is sub-10% in ownership this week as everyone panics about Perine’s usage.

After re-watching that game, the Bengals left no doubt that Mixon is still their guy when they need to move the football on the ground. Yes, Perine will likely continue to have a solid role in the the passing-game work, but this offense targets the running backs in the passing game more than every team in the NFL besides the Chargers and the Buccaneers. There will be plenty to go around for Mixon.

Lastly, Vita Vea is set to miss another game this week for the Bucs and we saw how much this run defense struggles when he is away as the 49ers just rushed for over 7 yards per carry and 175 total rush yards on the Bucs last week. The Bengals grade 3rd overall in run offense DVOA making this a low-key great spot for Joe Mixon and the Bengals offense as a whole in your NFL DFS GPP lineups. Let’s go for a shootout!
Alvin Kamara ($6,800 DK / $7,600 FD) – Honestly, I was surprised to see Kamara show up as this strong of a play in the AETY Model, but without Mark Ingram, there is truly no one behind him. It was nice to also see that the prop market seems to agree this is a fantastic buy-low spot for Kamara as most sportsbooks opened Kamara’s all-purpose yard prop around 93 yards. The AETY Model projects him for 101 all-purpose yards and a significant implied probability of a touchdown. Kamara is in line for a large workload in a must-win game for the Saints against the Falcons 28th ranked run defense (DVOA).
Miles Sanders ($6,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Miles Sanders is underpriced for his elite upside he and this Eagles’ offense possess on a weekly basis, especially against the Bears 29th ranked run defense (DVOA). Sanders has been on fire of late but we’ll always fear the threat of Jalen Hurts or one of these random backup running backs taking red-zone work away from him. Having said that, Sanders is coming off of the highest snap share he’s had since Week 5… maybe Nick Sirianni is finally unleashing Sanders. Maybe it was a fluke.
Isiah Pachecho ($5,900 DK / $7,600 FD) – A lead running back against the Houston Texans as a two-touchdown favorite. Yes, we’ll see Jerick McKinnon, but this should finally be the spot where we see Pachecho heavily utilized in the red-zone as the Chiefs kill the clock in what should be an absolute blowout.
Zonovan Knight ($5,300 DK / $7,200 FD) – In NFL DFS cash games, you can certainly go back to the well with Zonovan night on DraftKings. On FanDuel, I have no interest in that price. I’ll be fading Zonovan Knight and his 20% ownership tag in GPP contests as I really respect this Detroit Lions’ run defense lately. I tried to call their bluff last week with Dalvin Cook and I won’t make that mistake again… this Lions’ run defense is becoming a thing.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Ja’Maar Chase ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – The Bucs secondary is in shambles and Jamel Dean is likely to miss this game. Ja’Maar Chase is the best wide receiver on this slate (honorable mention Davante Adams) and the AETY Model predicts this game to be a high-scoring affair.
CeeDee Lamb ($7,300 DK / $8,100 FD) – This is a fantastic matchup for Dak Prescott and an even better one for CeeDee Lamb. The Jaguars will mainly run a Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defense and those are coverages CeeDee Lamb absolutely tears up and is targeted at a significantly higher clip than his already elite baseline. Jaguars’ slot-corner, Darious Williams is going to have his hands full.
Keenan Allen ($6,800 DK / $8,000 FD) & Mike Williams ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD) – We all know Keenan Allen is back as he’s leading the NFL in routes ran over the past three weeks and he’s seen 28 targets in the past two weeks, lol. More importantly, Mike Williams looked 100% healthy and that is going to be a problem for the Titans’ secondary. Both of these wideouts being healthy is a nightmare for opposing secondaries, so we’re looking at a potential double-stack blowup. Mike Williams will tear apart the Titans’ when they run their Cover-1 man defense (they run that a lot) and Keenan Allen should find his way when they drop to Cover-3 zone. I love them both!
Chris Godwin ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – Godwin is one of four players in the NFL who have over 100 total targets over their past 10 games (Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams). The utilization is too great to ignore and now we get a cake matchup against the Bengals’ secondary who will be without their slot-corner, Mike Hilton. This is damn-near a must-win game for the Bucs and I’m expecting a shootout.
Christian Kirk ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – If you’ve been following Win Daily for a while, you’ll know I do not play Trevor Lawrence against teams that blitz a lot and create a lot of pressure for opposing quarterbacks. However, these are games where I love to roster the Jaguars top pass catcher and slot-receiver, Christian Kirk in what should be a high-scoring football game. This is a GPP play only for your NFL DFS lineups, but the public is going to be off of Christian Kirk because of the matchup against the rookie star corner, DaRon Bland.

Yes, Bland is an absolute stud so far in his young career, but Kirk has had his way with elite slot-cornerbacks in Will Harris (DET), Bryce Callahan (LAC), and the best slot-corner in the NFL, L’Jarius Sneed (KC) where Christian Kirk turned in his best fantasy performance of the year (34.5 DraftKings points). The theme here is that Christian Kirk gets elite usage when he faces teams that blitz a lot, especially when those mix in a lot of Cover-2 zone as well.
Garrett Wilson ($6,000 DK / $7,800 FD) – Another week of mis-priced Garrett Wilson (on DraftKings). Lock him up in your NFL DFS cash game lineups and he offers a significant floor/ceiling combination to consider in GPP builds. Keep in mind, he will be one of the highest owned receivers on the slate.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD) – I prefer exposure to the running game, but at sub-10% ownership, Smith-Schuster is an excellent pivot away from Wilson chalk. This is a matchup JuJu Smith-Schuster should destroy against Houston’s defense that runs nothing but Cover-2 and some Cover-3. They also refuse to blitz the quarterback. All three situations lead to an increased target-share for the Chiefs’ top wideout.
Chris Moore ($4,200 DK / $6,000 FD) – Looks like the public is going to follow the Week 14 production for Chris Moore. It should be a nice gamescript here for the floor in NFL DFS cash games but I have zero interest in GPP builds.
Elijah Moore ($3,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – All signs point to Corey Davis being OUT this week so we’ll simply use Elijah Moore as cheap exposure to a strong fantasy environment against the Lions’ secondary. Moore has 16 targets in the past two games and is 6th in the NFL in routes ran during that timeframe. We cannot say that about or anything close to that about any other wide receiver in that $3K price range. He’d be the Discord Diamond, but he won’t be 1% owned… and as of now, I do not have a 1% diamond this week.

*Moving off of Elijah Moore with Zach Wilson.

Discord Diamond is officially: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Discord for more details).

Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Michael Gallup, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,800 DK / $8,000 FD)
Dalton Schultz ($4,400 DK / $6,500 FD) – The second top-option on this slate for the tight-end position but at a significant discount from Kelce. I’ve wrote enough about the Cowboys’ passing attack but I love this spot for Schultz as well, as he destroys Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone, just like CeeDee Lamb. Do I hear a double stack?
Greg Dulcich ($3,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – I won’t get into all of the statistics from Brett Rypien’s sample size in the NFL, but I will summarize it: He abuses the tight-end! A week after Dulcich was a bit of a let-down and 35% owned in all formats, NO ONE will go back to him this week solely because of said let-down and no Russell Wilson. What happened to everyone picking on Arizona against tight-ends? They still rate 30th in DVOA against opposing tight-ends and now we have a quarterback who will target him more than Wilson did. I don’t get why anyone would just cross his name off their tight-end list.
Chig Okonkwo ($3,100 DK / $5,100 FD) – It is absolutely disgusting to see all of the public now on the guy we invented weeks ago on the livestream, but as discussed last week, if Okonkwo had a big day against the Jaguars (we wished that he didn’t), he would be the stone chalk in Week 15 against the Chargers. Play him in cash. In GPPs, I guess it’s fine as long as Treylon Burks is out, but chalk, punt tight-ends never seem to end well. On the bright side, he is a stud and Derwin James is OUT for the Chargers.

Honorable Mention: Gerald Everett, Juwan Johnson, Tyler Conklin, Cade Otton

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Derrick Henry
Zonovan Knight
Justin Herbert
Chris Godwin
Denver Broncos

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 15 TNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Two teams headed the opposite direction face off this week on Thursday Night Football. The 49ers, winners of six straight, travel to Seattle to take on the reeling Seahawks. The Seahawks have lost three of four since a 6-3 start. They are fighting for their playoff lives, and this one would go a long way toward clinching a postseason spot. San Fransisco is favored by 3.5 in this one, with the total set at 43.5. Let’s get ready to rumble!

DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.

Captain/MVP Plays

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($17,100 DraftKings, $17,500 FanDuel)

The most obvious play of this showdown slate is CMC. With Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell both OUT for this one, CMC will be relied upon even more. Only the Texans are serving up more fantasy points per game to opposing RB than the Seahawks. This is a match made in heaven for McCaffrey and the 49ers.

CMC only touched the ball 16 times last week (14 carries, 2 catches), but he turned those opportunities into 154 yards and a pair of scores. He is now averaging 30 DraftKings PPG over the last two weeks. This type of production is what you pay for on slates like this. With the new hero in town Brock Purdy banged up also, San Fran will need as much as they can get from their star deadline acquisition.

DK Metcalf, Seahawks ($15,000 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)

If you’re not playing CMC up top, Metcalf makes sense for a few reasons. The Seahawks will have a tough time finding success on the ground against the #1 run defense in the NFL. They are giving up less than 16 fantasy points per game to opposing RB.

Conversely, the 49ers are vulnerable against WR, serving up just over 35 fantasy points per game (23rd in the NFL). Metcalf is a tough cover for anyone, and continues to see elite volume. He has averaged nearly 10 targets per game over his last six. Geno will be looking his way early and often, especially if the running game struggles. If Seattle gets down big, even better. Metcalf is one of my favorite plays in this one.

George Kittle, 49ers ($12,000 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel)

Call me crazy here, but I love Kittle in this spot. I know the production hasn’t been there, but with multiple key weapons out, this is a primo spot for the former Hawkeye. Kittle has just nine catches for 76 yards COMBINED over the last three weeks.

Even better. His ownership will hopefully be low due to his recent duds, and I’m here to take advantage. Seattle has been getting cooked by TE all season. You all know how bad the Cardinals have been against TE, and they are still the only team worse than Seattle. Kittle should feast here, regardless of who is under center.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($8,800 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)

I already mentioned the injuries that continue to pile up for the 49ers, and Aiyuk is poised to benefit. He can take on some of the Deebo Samuel workload, and has already been productive this season (13.5 DK PPG). He doesn’t need to make big splash plays down the field to find ways to hit value, and I’m expecting him to be busy here.

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks ($10,200 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel)

All Tyler Lockett does is score touchdowns. He continues to be one of the most underrated WR in the NFL, and has been the model of consistency. He has scored a touchdown in six consecutive games, and eight overall in his last nine. He has only hit 100 yards once in his last eight games, but if you’re playing him, it isn’t for the yardage. It’s for paydirt.

Jordan Mason, 49ers ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

If I’m huge on CMC, I have to give a look to Mason as well. He has totaled 19 carries for 107 yards over the last two weeks. If he sees similar volume again in this one, he could be a difference maker on this slate. If he can somehow steal a touchdown, he’s going to be a player you need to have in your lineups at this price.

Other Options

Kickers are both in play here. Robbie Gould hasn’t missed a FG attempt since Week 5, and Jason Myers has only missed one all season. Kickers continue to play big roles in showdown, and I’ll be on both. Slight edge to Myers for me.

Jauan Jennings posted a dud last week, but the 49ers didn’t need to do much in the way of the passing game in the second half. I’ll mention one more time about Deebo being out. Jennings is reasonably priced to take advantage of an increased workload.

Kenneth Walker has slate-breaking upside on a main slate, so he is more than capable here. The 49ers have been the best in the NFL against RB, but Walker is special. My main issue is that the Seahawks could take it easy on his workload here in his first game back from injury. He is a fine play, but not one that I will be prioritizing. His price on DK may be too good to pass up though, so I’ll have some exposure in MME.

I’m not chasing the points with Marquise Goodwin here. He had a huge game last week, but I’m not expecting that here against San Fran. I’ll take DK and Lockett and hope the field chases last week’s big game here.

Noah Fant and Will Dissly could be deep options, I side with Fant, but am not excited about either one here.

Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.

Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Week 15 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Tight End was a complete wasteland last week outside of Mr. Evan Engram (11-162-2). Let’s navigate our way through the wasteland that is the Tight End position and find ourselves an edge this week! The playoff picture is rounding into form and there are a lot of teams with plenty to play for here in Week 15!

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

Schultz has quietly been one of the most reliable TE in the NFL since Dak Prescott’s return. His DraftKings points over the last six weeks look like this:

14.7

5.3

19.1

5.2

17.4

13.4

The two low totals are in games that the Cowboys won by 35 and 37 points. I’m expecting this one to be close, as the Jaguars are coming off recent wins against both the Ravens and Titans. They look spry all of a sudden, but not against TE.

Over the last month, no team has allowed more fantasy points to TE than the Jags (21.6 per game). Schultz has a great shot to be the high scorer this week in a game that suddenly means a lot to both teams.

Greg Dulcich, Broncos ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Dulcich has seen 16 targets over the last two games, totaling 9 grabs for 127 yards. Russell Wilson is a huge question mark going into this week, but Dulcich has a prime matchup regardless. We have talked all season about Arizona’s struggles against TE. They still rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to TE…and by a considerable margin.

Dulcich takes a hit if Brett Rypien is under center, but I still see him as a viable play here regardless. The Broncos have already “ridden” themselves out of playoff contention. The rest of this season is about developing young talent, and Dulcich is near the top of that list.

Hunter Henry, Patriots ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

I’m going back to the well here with Henry in GPPs. Mac Jones continues to struggle, but the Patriots continue to hold strong in the playoff race. The Raiders are 25th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing TE. Henry isn’t a volume play, but he has shown flashes of viability lately. He has 50+ yards in three of his last five games.

I may never be a fan of Mac Jones, but I’m a fan of an offense that has so much to play for late in the season. Bill Belichick is one of the best to ever do it. With key players across the board still battling injuries (Jakobi Meyers, Rhamondre Stevenson, Damien Harris), the Patriots need guys like Henry to step up. I’m betting that he will.

Gerald Everett, Chargers ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

If you’ve followed this article all season, you know I’ve been on Everett more often than not. Well, this is the perfect week to slot him into the lineup. I’m sure you’ve been aware of the Titans’ struggles of late, but you may not be aware of just how bad it has been.

Over the last two weeks, the Titans have allowed an average of 377 passing yards per game and 124 YPG to TE. A lot of that was due to Evan Engram’s big game last week, but I’m banking on another solid performance here.

Everett didn’t see the dip many thought he would with the lineup finally including both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He still saw eight targets and turned those opportunities into 5-28. That line isn’t going to win you a GPP, I know. But Everett is in a good spot with a QB (Justin Herbert) who is playing as well as any player on the planet.

The Chargers are fighting for their playoff lives, and the Titans all of a sudden are feeling the heat in the AFC South. Fire him up.

Evan Engram, Jaguars ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

This might seem like point-chasing, and I’m OK with that in some ways. Engram has shown his rapport at times with Trevor Lawrence this season and has seen a ridiculous 22 targets over the last two weeks. The Jags are suddenly alive in the AFC South (have I mentioned that?), and Engram has played a role of late.

This is far from a great matchup, but I’m playing the volume game here. Trevor Lawrence and company likely won’t see many easy looks, but volume will play a role here. Here’s a crazy stat: the Cowboys haven’t allowed more than 213 passing yards in a game since Week FIVE. Yes, more than two months ago. A full fade here probably makes sense from a game theory standpoint, but I think there is some merit to taking a shot here at this price point.

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord. Take advantage of our projections while you build your lineups for Week 15 on FanDuel and DraftKings! Let’s continue to finish strong this season!

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 15, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Week 15 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

Schultz has quietly been one of the most reliable TE in the NFL since Dak Prescott’s return. His DraftKings points over the last six weeks look like this:

14.7

5.3

19.1

5.2

17.4

13.4

Greg Dulcich, Broncos ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Hunter Henry, Patriots ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

Gerald Everett, Chargers ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

The Chargers are fighting for their playoff lives, and the Titans all of a sudden are feeling the heat in the AFC South. Fire him up.

Evan Engram, Jaguars ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord. Take advantage of our projections while you build your lineups for Week 15 on FanDuel and DraftKings! Let’s continue to finish strong this season!

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 15, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 14 MNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Sunday Night Football was really good to the WDS team. We had a takedown and plenty of green across the board! For Monday, we shift to an non-conference battle between the Patriots and Cardinals. The Patriots are fighting for their playoff lives, and each game is inching closer to a must-win for this 6-6 squad. The Cardinals are in the midst of yet another disappointing season. Let’s find ourselves an edge to make some cash here! New England is favored by 2.5 with a total of 43.5 points.

Captain/MVP Plays

Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($13,200 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

Rhamondre is always my go-to guy in this lackluster Patriots offense. Arizona allows over 24 fantasy points per game to opposing backs, and Stevenson has been elite. The Cardinals have served up over 1500 total yards and 12 scores (8 rushing, 4 receiving) to opposing backs this season.

Stevenson had a poor outing last week against the Bills, but the entire offense was underwater all night. He still totaled 10 carries and hauled in six of eight targets. The volume and opportunity are there, especially against a vulnerable Arizona defense. I mentioned above how badly the Patriots need wins, and relying on their workhorse is their best chance at success here. Fire him up as an elite option once again, especially as Mac Jones continues to struggle. Did I mention that Damien Harris is DOUBTFUL for this one?

DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals ($17,400 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel)

My sons have recently taken on an obsession with football, and are constantly making lists of their “top” or favorite players at each position. I had to introduce them to D-Hop since they are new to the game. The man just continues to defy odds with some of the plays he makes, and tonight should be more of the same.

New England has been one of the better defenses in the NFL this season, but have shown a vulnerability to opposing WR of late. Over the last four games, they have given up over 37 fantasy points per game to opposing WR. They continue to be stout against the run, so I will be focusing my attention to the passing game here.

Despite seeing only six targets last week, Hopkins still managed a 4-87-1 line. That was his third straight game posting at least 18 DraftKings points. He is still the focal point of this offense, and even a Bill Belichick defense is unlikely to stop him. I’m all over D-Hop here.

Hunter Henry, Patriots ($8,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

I’m going off the wall with my third suggestion for your bonus spot. Henry still doesn’t see a ton of volume, but this is such a prime matchup, he simply cannot be ignored. Arizona is allowing 25% more fantasy points than ANY other team this season to opposing TE.

We have seen what Henry can do, and two weeks ago he posted 15.3 DraftKings points. Mac Jones continues to struggle to make plays down the field, and Henry will be a benefactor on MNF. Jakobi Meyers is also OUT for this one, so there will be a few more looks to go around. Henry is one of my favorite plays in this one.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Marquise Brown, Cardinals ($7,600 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)

Rondale Moore is OUT for this one, and with D-Hop likely to take the attention down the field, Brown could benefit. Volume could play a big factor here in Brown’s second game back from injury. He caught six of eight targets for 46 yards in his return. A range of 10-15 points is just fine for him here in the midrange of salaries.

Devante Parker, Patriots ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

With Meyers OUT and Damien Harris unlikely to play, we need someone to step up in this Pats offense. Parker has shown some flashes of late, hauling in six of 10 targets over the last two weeks for 96 yards. We will just go ahead and pretend like last week’s disaster against the Bills doesn’t count though, right?

Greg Dortch, Cardinals ($2,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

A Dortch fade may be one of the craziest on this slate, especially on DK. He is coming off of a monster performance in his last game against the 49ers in Week 11 (9-103 on 10 targets). Yes, his floor is low, but he will see a lot of quick looks from Kyler Murray in the absence of Rondale Moore. He’s a lock for me at this price tag.

Other Options

Nick Folk struggled last week, and was replaced by Tristan Vizcaino. He is back to being the only active kicker on the roster this week, and is a fine play indoors in Arizona. Matt Prater has got to be about 75 years old by now, but keeps making kicks. He is 10-11 on the season. Kickers should be solid value in this one.

Mac Jones is dead to me. I just have such little faith in him posting a big line, so I have a hard time forcing him into my showdown lineups at his price tag. I don’t love the matchup for Kyler Murray, but I’m all over the wideouts, and his rushing floor makes him a viable play.

James Conner has a solid floor due to his ability to catch the ball. I don’t see him producing much on the ground here, but the upside is still there. He is averaging four targets per game over the last month.

Kyler Murray has fumbled six times (2 lost) and thrown four picks over his last five games. The Patriots defense is more than capable of taking advantage of mistakes. I like them as a FLEX play here in this one.

Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.

Good luck on Monday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL Week 14 Showdown SNF DFS Picks DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

This is what I’m talking about. The Dolphins and Chargers square off on Sunday Night Football. Justin Herbert vs Tua Tagovailoa. A lot will be settled in this one, but this game means exponentially more to the Chargers. They come into this one with a 32% chance of making the playoffs, while the Dolphins sit pretty at 88%. The Dolphins, fresh off a brutal beating by…Brock Purdy…are favored by 3.5 here with a massive total of 54.5. Let’s find some edges here!

Captain/MVP Plays

Justin Herbert, Chargers ($16,200 DraftKings, $16,500 FanDuel)

Listen, just because I list Herbert first doesn’t mean that I think he is better than Tua…or does it? None of that matters here, all that matters are fantasy points. Herbert continues to throw the ball at a massive rate (47 attempts each of the last two weeks), and has 6 TD/1 INT in his last three games.

Mike Williams may not be 100%, but he is expected back for this one, which is a massive boost for Justin. Keenan Allen looks to be back to his old self, and this Chargers offense is as healthy as it has been all season.

Expect Herbert to be aggressive against a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing QB this season. The Chargers will need to keep their young signal-caller upright if he is going to have success. He has been sacked 16 times over his last four games…and the Dolphins have 14 sacks in their last four.

Herbert may take some hits, but I’m expecting a big performance with the Chargers’ playoff hopes hanging by a thread.

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($17,100 DraftKings, $15,500 FanDuel)

He’s one of the easiest players to dislike in the NFL, but damn he is good. Hill is on a historic pace this season, having already amassed 96 catches for 1,379 yards. Inexplicably, he has just five touchdowns, but that’s the only negative you can find in his game.

The Dolphins let their foot off the gas against the Browns and Texans, which led to a dip in production for Hill across a two-week span. He blasted off against the 49ers with a 9/146 line on 14 targets. The Chargers’ main weakness is their run defense, and have actually been above average against WR. Hill ain’t your regular WR. He is very expensive, but his ceiling is simply massive.

Austin Ekeler, Chargers ($16,500 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel)

I’m not really interested in paying down for my bonus spot. These three (along with Tua or a sprinkle of Waddle) are my main targets for SNF. I can save salary elsewhere. The upside with this group is simply too high to ignore.

Ekeler has a tremendous floor due to his high volume in the passing game. He has seen 16, 12, 8, 12, 2, 15, and 6 targets in recent games. The return of Allen and now Williams will undoubtedly cut into that, but I’m not overly concerned. In a fast-paced offense that tends to play from behind a lot, Ekeler will continue to be heavily involved.

Over the last two weeks, the Dolphins have been dominated by opposing RB from a fantasy perspective. They have allowed 16 grabs for 111 yards and a pair of scores to RB over that span. Only 139 rushing yards, but Ekeler isn’t a volume runner in the way that he is a pass-catcher. He’s in a good spot here, and the Chargers need all the help they can get.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins ($10,400 DraftKings, $16,000 FanDuel)

I briefly mentioned Tua above, and I’ll keep this short and sweet. If you remove the 6 TD game, Tua has only been a great fantasy asset in three other games this season. He has totaled 14.8, 11.44, 3.4 (injury), 15.94, 15.96, and 16.8 DraftKings points in his other six games.

He is a fantastic real-life QB, but more often than not, I’m not thrilled about his upside. The Dolphins should (but will they?) rely on the run here quite a bit (more on that in a minute), so I’m not expecting a ceiling game here. That said, Tua could pay off quite nicely. I just prefer the options above at similar price points.

Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, Jr., Dolphins

Hear me out on this one. Wilson was a ghost last week against the 49ers, while Mostert didn’t exactly set the world on fire either. The Chargers are an elite matchup for opposing RB, allowing over 27 fantasy points per game and 15 touchdowns on the season.

Both are priced in the mid-tier range, and I’m a big fan of rostering both here. Mike McDaniel and company know how to take advantage of a mismatch, and this is a mismatch. The Dolphins remain one of the highest volume passing attacks in the NFL, but would be wise to take what the defense is giving them.

I’ll be throwing this duo into a few lineups together. Wilson looked fantastic over his three games prior to last week. I can’t fathom a scenario where the Dolphins run the ball just eight times here. I lean toward Wilson if choosing one, but if you’re going MME, throwing both in together on a lineup or two looks nice.

Keenan Allen, Chargers ($8,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)

I touched briefly on Allen’s production since his return, but let’s take a deeper look. Over three games since his return he has posted the following lines:

5-94 (8 targets) 13.4 DraftKings points

5-49-1 (7) 15.9

6-88-1 (14) 20.8

He is trending up, and Mike Williams being back will have a minor effect, and possibly even a positive one. He is still Herbert’s safety blanket, and it is easy to project him leading the team in targets.

Other Options

Jaylen Waddle may be the lost player who isn’t getting as much attention as he should in this one. He pulled a disappearing act against the 49ers, but don’t expect that again here. He doesn’t have “Cheetah” upside, but he could be a difference maker in this one (he still isn’t as good as Tee Higgins).

“Dicker the Kicker” will always be fun to say, and he is now 12/13 on the season. Both he and Jason Sanders are in play here, but Sanders has been inconsistent. Give me DTK here.

Don’t look now, but Trent Sherfield has actually outscored Waddle over the last three weeks, and it hasn’t been close (36.1 DK vs 26). He is priced nicely and is a solid pivot here.

I still have an unhealthy obsession with Gerald Everett, and like him quite a bit here as well. He is coming off a solid game last week. This matchup is a bit tougher, but he is in play here.

Everyone loves a $200 play on DraftKings. That guy for me this week is Cedrick Wilson. River Cracraft is DOUBTFUL, and Wilson has paid off a few times this year with expanded opportunities. What better time than a 54.5 point total? His floor is the same as yours or mine, but if he can grab 5-8 fantasy points, we would be ecstatic.

Good luck on Sunday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter @BigItaly42 if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Wide Receivers: Week 14 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

WIN 2 years ago

written by WIN

Some bold calls last week, got you ahead of the field and the team absolutely smashed. Let’s keep the green screens rolling into week 14. If you don’t know how I typically play the game, I generally like to build my lineups based on ownership. Bear in mind there will be times when we don’t have a clear picture of what that looks like until game day. With that being said, I do like to wait and see what the field is doing so this article may be a little on the later side than the standard. This way we can stay with the pack, in cash games, and pivot to those high-upside players in GPP-style contests. Don’t forget to look at the bottom of this article for other players I really like as well. Once you’re done scanning this article make sure to hop in our Discord chat to stay up to date with lineup discussions.

Let’s dive into NFL DFS Wide Receivers for this week’s main slate.

JA’MARR CHASE, CIN $7,900 DRAFTKINGS $8,700 FANDUEL

You know we need one more big chase game before the end of the season right…? Well this is the one. Lock and load Chase this week. Mixon is back as well, and stacking this game is a really nice option this week. Chase draws a strong matchup with Cleveland who is giving up the 4th most FPG to opposing outside Wide Receivers. He looked pretty good last week, so I think we see a big game out of him this week.

GARRETT WILSON, NYJ $5,900 DRAFTKINGS $7,200 FANDUEL

If you read my stuff last week, you played Wilson, and if you are reading this right now again, Congratulations, you’re going to be playing Wilson again this week. Last week he put up 162 yards on 253 air yards on 15 targets. Mike White looks like he’s going to get it done every week with Wilson, so he’s a go again this week.

AMON-RA ST. BROWN, DET $7,800 DRAFTKINGS $8,600 FANDUEL

We seem to be full steam ahead here this week with this play. You can argue the fact that St Brown is as close to Cooper Kupp as we’ve seen. This weeks matchup is super strong for him and Minnesota ranks 2nd worst in FPG to Wide Receivers. In his last 13 healthy games he’s averaged 10 targets, and 24 FPG. In the highest game total of the week, it’s hard not to consider St. Brown this week in all your builds.

ZAY JONES, JAX $4,700 DRAFTKINGS $6,300 FANDUEL

Over the last four weeks, Jones is averaging 9 targets per game which ranks in the top 10 for Wide Receiver, which is pretty crazy. He also averages 14.8 FPG 17th, 76 receiving YPG 18th, and 14.6 FPG 20th. And this week he gets his best matchup yet, the Titans are giving up a ton to the Wide Receiver position, and this week Zay should feast again.

DJ MOORE, CAR $5,500 DRAFTKINGS $6,900 FANDUEL

The volume that DJ Moore projects this week at his super low DraftKings price tag still makes him an awesome Wide Receiver value this week. Moore earned a 62% yardage market share in Week 12, which ranks as the 5th highest by any Wide receiver so far in any week this season. I think this game goes over, and there are some nice points scored in this afternoon game.

Honorable Mention: Jefferson, Diggs, AJ Brown, Godwin, Lockett, Lamb, Metcalf, Higgins

Value Plays: Hinton, C. Moore, J. Reynolds, Jeudy, Chark, Robinson, E. Moore

ROCKER CORE CASH PLAYS: On the Sheet now in research channel

Thanks for reading our NFL DFS Wide Receivers article as the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, cash games and tournaments. We will also have articles, videos, and podcasts so be sure to lock in with us in whichever way you like to! Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our YouTube page and make don’t forget to lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last-minute news.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Wide Receivers: Week 14 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

WIN 2 years ago

written by WIN

Let’s dive into NFL DFS Wide Receivers for this week’s main slate.

JA’MARR CHASE, CIN $7,900 DRAFTKINGS $8,700 FANDUEL

GARRETT WILSON, NYJ $5,900 DRAFTKINGS $7,200 FANDUEL

AMON-RA ST. BROWN, DET $7,800 DRAFTKINGS $8,600 FANDUEL

ZAY JONES, JAX $4,700 DRAFTKINGS $6,300 FANDUEL

DJ MOORE, CAR $5,500 DRAFTKINGS $6,900 FANDUEL

Honorable Mention: Jefferson, Diggs, AJ Brown, Godwin, Lockett, Lamb, Metcalf, Higgins

Value Plays: Hinton, C. Moore, J. Reynolds, Jeudy, Chark, Robinson, E. Moore

ROCKER CORE CASH PLAYS: On the Sheet now in research channel

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 14: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Monster Week 13 for the Win Daily family! The Discord Diamond, Trent Sherfield paid off in bunches, though I didn’t expect it to happen the way that it did (we were lucky with that as he only had one reception, but it was a 75-yard house call). Let’s keep it rolling for our Week 14 NFL DFS cash game and GPP breakdown. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

SLATE NOTES: This is a unique slate with only one game possessing a total over 50-points and that will certainly bring a lot of condensed chalk. I won’t write about the top-tier quarterbacks because this slate seems to scream play down towards the value quarterbacks, but if you want to get different, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen will all be around 5% ownership in NFL DFS GPP tournaments.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow ($7,000 DK / $8,300 FD) – Burrow is the obvious “value” in terms of the top tier quarterbacks who regularly put up solid fantasy outputs. This is one of the higher total games on the slate at 47.5-points and Burrow has been on a tear of late. All of his weapons are back and healthy and the addition of Joe Mixon should really open up this offense as a whole, against the Cleveland Browns 27th ranked defense in total DVOA. Burrow is one of the few who are getting massive respect from the sportsbooks with a passing prop around 280 yards and a passing touchdown prop showing an implied probability of 2+ passing touchdowns.

Stack Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon
Run-Back Options: Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb
Jared Goff ($5,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – Hello Mr. Chalk, Jared Goff. If that sounds absolutely disgusting to you, I don’t blame you. I have dug into this slate in every single way that I can in hopes to find a strong reason to fade Jared Goff… I was unsuccessful. Simply put, on DraftKings, Jared Goff is going to be 70% owned in cash games and likely 30-40% owned in NFL DFS GPP contests. That is absurd, but it makes sense in this matchup.

Having said that, as much as I would like to get different in my main lineup (I’m using Goff in cash regardless), I cannot find a lineup construction that offers the high-floor and high-ceiling combo that I get when I do start my build with Jared Goff. So, in order for me to get different when using Goff, I’m going IN on this Minnesota @ Detroit game-stack. And when I mean “IN”, I mean all the way the f*** in. Based on early ownership projections, the field is going to pair Goff with Amon-Ra St. Brown and run it back with Justin Jefferson. That is the chalk trio of the week (in addition to Greg Dulcich who we will discuss later). If those are your first four clicks of your lineup, good luck cashing this week unless you get significantly different elsewhere.

So, my plan of attack is to get even more exposure to this game and I’ll do that by adding DJ Chark to that Amon-Ra/Goff pairing (double-stacking it) and running it back with Justin Jefferson AND Dalvin Cook.

My narrative here: Minnesota has no issues moving the football and I want their two biggest touchdown threats in Cook and Jefferson. In return, I want Goff and the Lions to have to rely on the air attack and using their two biggest red-zone threats in St. Brown and DJ Chark. If this game script goes in favor of Jamaal Williams for NFL DFS lineups, I’m in trouble (hint: maybe that is your way to get different in this game).

Stack Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark, D’Andre Swift
Run-Back Options: Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, TJ Hockenson, Adam Thielen
Russell Wilson ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) – VOMIT ALERT! I’ve had a lot of success recently by using a pure punt quarterback and pairing them with a cheap pass-catcher. As mentioned above, Greg Dulcich is going to be the highest owned player on this slate, and for good reason. The negative gamescript (assuming Kansas City has their way with Denver) bodes great for Dulcich and possibly Jerry Jeudy (Courtland Sutton is OUT). I look at Dulcich the same way I looked at Pat Freiermuth last week. He’s a valuable, chalk tight-end who is a top-two target in their offense, in a good matchup.

So, like Kenny Pickett last week (he honestly didn’t get there, but my lineups did due to the price of Pickett and Freiermuth allowing me to fill my lineup with studs), I need Wilson to find a way to get 15+ points and be efficient in the red-zone. Similar to Pickett, Russell Wilson has a bit of a rushing floor that not many quarterbacks on this slate have other than Tyler Huntley, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes. Huntley is the only one in the same price-tier as Wilson, but I have no interest in Huntley against the Steelers defense (maybe I’m right on that fade, maybe I’m wrong… I’m not telling you not to play Huntley… he offers great leverage if you think the Steelers’ defense chalk can fail).

*I have no interest in Kendall Hinton.

Stack Options: Greg Dulcich, Jerry Jeudy
Run-Back Options: Travis Kelce, Isiah Pachecho, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith (incredible leverage play against the chalk Panthers’ defense)

NFL DFS Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($7,900 DK / $9,000 FD) – Derrick Henry was a non-factor last week against a very stout Eagles’ run defense (thanks a lot to Jordan Davis). Henry was flat-out gamescripted out of that contest in a hurry. This week, things get a bit easier for Derrick Henry as he’ll be at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a more neutral, if not positive gamescript. Jacksonville’s run defense is much improved this year, but Derrick Henry has the highest implied probability for a touchdown and rushing yards in both the AETY Model and sportsbooks this week.
Dalvin Cook ($7,300 DK / $8,700 FD) – Spoke more about Dalvin Cook above with Jared Goff. Priority play for me in NFL DFS GPP contests on DraftKings specifically.
Joe Mixon ($6,900 DK / $8,500 FD) – Mixon is back from concussion protocol and is likely to be the highest owned running back on the slate as this is the “nuts” matchup against the Browns’ 31st ranked run defense (DVOA). In cash, you likely need to take the chalk route and ride Mixon, but in NFL DFS GPP contests, I have my reservations. It seems as if some of the public is worried about Samaje Perine carving out himself a sustainable role in this offense… Some in this industry think that is nonsense, others think it has some teeth.

I am one of those that thinks Perine getting respectable snaps is a real possibility. I look at it this way: the Bengals are a much better football team when both Mixon and Perine are healthy. This is a team with Superbowl aspirations and Superbowl talent. I find it hard to believe that the Bengals would ask Joe Mixon to pass block and take all of the third-down work when Samaje Perine has proven he is very capable of doing so himself. Maybe I am wrong, but I’d much rather find the extra $400 on DraftKings this week in GPP contests and pay-up for Dalvin Cook at half the ownership. If Mixon comes out and doesn’t leave the field, I’ll sleep just fine knowing that’s how I didn’t have a great fantasy weekend.
Isiah Pachecho ($5,700 DK / $7,300 FD) – Cheap exposure to the Kansas City offense in a plus matchup where they are projected to have a significant lead throughout this game. I’m going right back to the well on Isiah Pachecho this week and almost took down $100,000 because of him last week (if Travis Kelce doesn’t fumble on that put-away drive, I likely get the 2-3 extra points from Pacheco to take down the tournament… sigh). Pacheco is starting to ramp up his route running (only three less routes than McKinnon last week) and that mid-season narrative that he doesn’t catch passes is slowly going by the waste side. Go get yourself two touchdowns, Mr. Pacheco!

*UPDATE: I’ll keep an eye on Leonard Fournette. If he is OUT, Rachaad White becomes a cash-game freesquare and viable in GPP contests as well.

Honorable Mention: Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift, D’Onta Foreman, James Cook (risky as hell but the sportsbooks opened his rushing prop equal to their RB1, Devin Singletary)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

*Some of these plays below are no-brainers that you already know are in a fantastic fantasy environment for both NFL DFS cash games and GPP lineups, so I’ll spare you some time and skip their write-ups.

Justin Jefferson ($9,000 DK / $9,300 FD)
AJ Brown ($8,000 DK / $8,400 FD) & Devonta Smith ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – Jalen Hurts is my favorite quarterback on this slate but the price is significant if you’re trying to get quality exposure to Minnesota and Detroit. If you can find a creative way to do so (or full-fade that game), AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are in incredible matchups here against the Giants’ 28th ranked pass defense (DVOA). Both of these Eagles’ wideouts tear up Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense and that is what we will see in New York.
Ja’Maar Chase ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,600 FD)
DK Metcalf ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD) & Tyler Lockett ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD) – My second favorite low-owned stack (behind the Eagles) is the Seattle Seahawks against a respectable Carolina secondary. Despite the Carolina Panthers having a solid, healthy secondary, you know how I feel about DK Metcalf… you cannot cover him. The Panthers are likely to be 20% or more in ownership in all NFL DFS contests this weekend and simply using the Seahawks’ passing attack against their Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone defense is beautiful tournament leverage.
DJ Moore ($5,500 DK / $6,900 FD) – Moore is the only game in town for this Carolina passing attack and will likely receive a significant amount of ownership. In cash games, that is something we’ll want to ride and if you want to take the cheap WR1 in NFL DFS GPP contests, I’m okay with it as he offers a perfect, value run-back to Seattle stacks.
Jerry Jeudy ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD) – If I’m playing Russell Wilson, I have to be interested in his top pass-catcher in Jerry Jeudy now that Courtland Sutton is out. Kendall Hinton drawing 10% ownership is laughable. I’ll ride with one of the best route runners in the NFL in a likely negative gamescript against a beatable Chiefs’ secondary. Jeudy is an excellent 2% owned pivot off of DJ Moore chalk, but you would have to trust Russell Wilson if you’re playing Jeudy… that is tough to do and this play is not for the faint of heart.
Zay Jones ($4,700 DK / $6,300 FD) – Not a big fan of tooting the own horn, but how dead on were we last week about fading Zay Jones and jamming in all the Christian Kirk that we could? This week, I love going back to Zay Jones as he was a massive letdown for the donkey public last week but enters a prime, get-right matchup against a Titans’ defense that refuses to blitz the quarterback (when Trevor Lawrence struggles most). We’ve written up the Titans’ being an absolute pass funnel defense and at this price, Zay Jones is a perfect player to take advantage of that brutal secondary.
THE DISCORD DIAMOND…

Julio Jones ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – Back by popular demand is the 0% projected ownership Discord Diamond. We absolutely smashed last week with Trent Sherfield (again, we got lucky, not really happy about that, but it worked) and we’ll go back to the well this week with Julio Jones?!

There is not a ton of wide receiver “punt value” that I believe in this week and the only players that fit the mold for the Discord Diamond (in terms of routes ran, price, and ownership) were:

– Elijah Moore (still like him, this should be an excellent matchup on the inside against a struggling Taron Johnson and the Bills’ secondary as a whole)
– Phillip Dorsett (meh)
– Julio Jones

So… yea, looking at the options above, we’re going with Julio Jones. There isn’t a whole lot of great things to say about this Buccaneers’ offense, but they are the AETY Model’s anticipated leader in terms of pass attempts with our without Fournette being active. At these low-price punts, we really need any boost of volume that we can find and the Bucs’ offense checks that box. In addition, Julio Jones will mainly lineup against the 49ers worst cover-corner in Demmodore Lenoir. Jones has a damn-near half-a-foot height advantage and is still is showing his playmaking prowess over the past couple weeks. Shannahan will likely try to scheme away the home-run ability to Mike Evans leaving Julio Jones 1-on-1 with Lenoir… good luck.

Outside of the limited man coverage we’ll see from the 49ers, Julio Jones gets a nice boost to his baseline target share against the 49ers’ Cover-3 zone. It’s very likely Julio Jones is a dud, but if you NEED a 0% owned cheapie, Julio Jones would be my guy.

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, Gabe Davis, Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Elijah Moore

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,600 DK / $8,000 FD)
Mark Andrews ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – Significant target shares with Tyler Huntley last year. I’m not really into this game at all, but this is a great price for Mark Andrews on a slate where everyone is paying down.
TJ Hockenson ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) – Excellent pivot to get exposure to this projected shootout at low ownership. When the Lions’ show their Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defense, Hockenson will be a priority target for Kirk Cousins.
Greg Dulcich ($3,400 DK / $5,400 FD) – On DraftKings, just take the freesquare of Greg Dulcich in a matchup where he should heavily utilized against the Chiefs’ league leading Cover-2 rate.

*P.S. – it’s hilarious to see Chig Okonkwo at 10% ownership projection… you’re a week late folks, but not if you’re a Win Daily member!

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Joe Mixon
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jared Goff
DJ Moore
Greg Dulcich

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NFL DFS

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

DERRICK HENRY $8000 DraftKings $9500 FanDuel

JOSH JACOBS $8100 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

TONY POLLARD $7100 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JAMES CONNER $6900 DraftKings $8400 FanDuel

ALVIN KAMARA $6800 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

MILES SANDERS $6500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ISIAH PACHECO DraftKings $5600 FanDuel $6600

ZONOVAN KNIGHT DraftKings $4600 FanDuel $6400

NFL DFS BONUS PICKS

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

NFL DFS Running Backs

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Captain/MVP Plays

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($17,100 DraftKings, $17,500 FanDuel)

DK Metcalf, Seahawks ($15,000 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)

George Kittle, 49ers ($12,000 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel)

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($8,800 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks ($10,200 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel)

Jordan Mason, 49ers ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

Other Options

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

Greg Dulcich, Broncos ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Hunter Henry, Patriots ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

Gerald Everett, Chargers ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Evan Engram, Jaguars ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

Greg Dulcich, Broncos ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Hunter Henry, Patriots ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

Gerald Everett, Chargers ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Evan Engram, Jaguars ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

Captain/MVP Plays

Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($13,200 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals ($17,400 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel)

Hunter Henry, Patriots ($8,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Marquise Brown, Cardinals ($7,600 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)

Devante Parker, Patriots ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Greg Dortch, Cardinals ($2,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

Other Options

Captain/MVP Plays

Justin Herbert, Chargers ($16,200 DraftKings, $16,500 FanDuel)

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($17,100 DraftKings, $15,500 FanDuel)

Austin Ekeler, Chargers ($16,500 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel)

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins ($10,400 DraftKings, $16,000 FanDuel)

Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, Jr., Dolphins

Keenan Allen, Chargers ($8,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)

Other Options

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

NFL DFS Running Backs

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

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