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NFL DFS

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/02

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

In the second NBA slate of the calendar year, there is plenty of news to follow. Teams are missing key contributors, while others are looking to make moves in the standings as soon as possible. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Charlotte Hornets (+1.5)

Los Angeles Lakers (-1.5)

With Luka Doncic being the presumed favorite at the top of the pricing grid, a notable duo in this game will be overlooked. With the Lakers still awaiting an evaluation on Anthony Davis to resume basketball activities, LeBron James will need to singlehandedly carry this team to a playoff bid. There are no statistics needed for what James brings to an NBA court over a 20-season career. In an elite game environment with both teams ranking in the top 8 in pace and Charlotte being 26th in defensive rating, LeBron has the potential to lead the slate in scoring.

Charlotte Hornets (+1.5)

If you are committing to this game as a whole, then LaMelo Ball is the stud you want to counter LeBron James. Since returning to the lineup, Ball has been the lone reason for their offense. Playing in ten straight games to close out the calendar year, Ball led the team with a 29.6% usage rate. Moreover, he led the team in scoring, assists, and three-pointers made. During that span, Ball averaged 25/6.6/8.2 on 42.6% shooting, including making 4.5 three-pointers per night. With the Lakers being 2nd in the NBA in pace and 29th against primary ball handlers, this game can easily be the highest scoring of the slate, with Ball being the primary benefactor in a favorable matchup.

Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-3.5)

Chicago Bulls (+3.5)

With their opponent ranked 29th in pace and 1st in defensive rating, there is little to like about the Bulls offense tonight. However, on such a large NBA slate, this offense will be completely forgotten. The Cavaliers rank 6th in the league against true centers, led by the tandem of Allen and Mobley on the inside. However, whether Mobley plays tonight or not, the Bulls will need big minutes from Nikola Vucevic against a combination of Allen, Love, and potentially Mobley. Despite the tough matchup, Vucevic ended the year on a solid run. In his last three games, Vucevic posted two double-doubles and averaged 15/12.3/2.7 on 46.3% shooting, including four three-pointers attempted per night.

Cleveland Cavaliers (-3.5)

The Cavaliers are one of the most intriguing rotations on this NBA slate. While the game environment is far from elite, the thin rotation is enticing. Darius Garland is currently doubtful to play with a thumb injury, while Evan Mobley missed the team’s last game due to an ankle injury. Should Mobley and Garland both miss this one, there will be ample opportunity for Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, Kevin Love, and Cedi Osman. To the benefit of both LeVert and Love, the Bulls rank 28th in three-pointers allowed. Moreover, they rank last in the NBA against stretch-fours, ranking last in three-pointers allowed to the player type. Over their last two games, Love and LeVert have combined for 15 three-point attempts per contest.

Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets (+7.5)

Dallas Mavericks (-7.5)

There is no player in the NBA that finished the year on a stronger run than Luka Doncic. In his last five games, Doncic averaged a 45.6/11.2/10.2 triple-double on 59.8% shooting. Moreover, Doncic scored 30 or more points in each one of those appearances, including three games with 50 or more points and two triple-doubles. Additionally, he had one of the best games in the history of the league, posting a 60/21/10 scoring line against the Knicks. The Rockets also rank last versus primary ball handlers while being 28th in defensive rating. In two games versus Houston this season, Doncic has averaged 42.5/10/11.5 on 54.9% shooting.

Houston Rockets (+7.5)

Exposure to the Rockets offense is dependent on the availability of Alperen Sengun. The sophomore center is listed as questionable after missing their last game of the calendar year with a back injury. Should he be available, Sengun gets a favorable matchup against the revolving door that is the Dallas frontcourt. Where Sengun will flourish in this matchup is with his playmaking. Since Dallas needs to shift their defense to collapse the defensive paint since they lack interior defense in a one-on-one situation, this leaves the perimeter open for kick-out three-point attempts. Alongside Jokic and Sabonis, Sengun is already a top 3 passer in the NBA at the center position. This greatly benefits this offense in the form of Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green.

Honorable Mentions:

New Orleans Pelicans @ Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5)
Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors (OTB)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

Week 17 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 2 years ago

written by Justin Elick

We are approaching the finish line in the NFL regular season, and that means two things. First off, players are unpredictable. Secondly, if you can find the right spots, there is an edge to be had. The second-to-last week of the regular season is upon us. Let’s find a way to cash in as we move toward the playoffs!

George Kittle, 49ers ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

We have been riding the Kittle train for a while now, so why stop now? Kittle has once again asserted himself among the elite TE in the NFL with consecutive monster performances. He has now hauled in 10 of 13 targets for 213 yards and FOUR touchdowns over the last two weeks.

The Raiders are clearly tanking their season by benching Derek Carr and turning to Jarrett Stidham. If he was going to make it as a starter, he would have found an opportunity by now. The Raiders are throwing in the towel, but the 49ers are still jockeying for playoff position. I’m riding shotgun on the Kittle train until we end up off the tracks.

Cole Kmet, Bears ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)

He’s baaacckkkkk! Kmet is back in the weekly article. He is quietly building a solid rapport with Justin Fields, and the future is bright. Although he hasn’t found the end zone in five weeks, his volume has been solid. He is averaging around six targets per game over that span, and he draws a solid matchup this week.

The Lions rank 27th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing TE. Justin Fields and company are looking to play spoiler in this one with the Lions clinging to their playoff hopes by a thread. Kmet is coming off a two-week span of facing the Eagles and Bills, who both rank among the best in the game against TE.

He is such a sneaky good play this week, and one that I’ll be locking into my single-entry lineups.

Darren Waller, Raiders ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

Waller is among the best tight ends in the NFL, but has been forgotten due to injury this season. He is priced among the mid-tier this week shortly after his return. With an inexperienced QB in Jarrett Stidham under center, I’m not scared off of Waller.

The 49ers have been a disaster matchup for opposing offenses, but volume could come into play here. The Raiders seem to have given up on the season, but pride is on the line here. I expect Stidham to look Waller’s way early and often in this one. His floor is low since we don’t know what to expect from Stidham, but I like his potential here, even in a tough matchup.

TJ Hockenson, Vikings ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

This one seems too easy after last week, and it really just might be that easy. It has become evident that Hock is the #2 option for Kirk Cousins behind Justin Jefferson in this passing attack. Jaire Alexander also called Jefferson’s big game in their first meeting “a fluke”.

That could lead to more opportunities for the former Detroit Lion. The Packers have been decent on the defensive end, but the Vikings have plenty to play for. Green Bay’s season is over if they lose one more game. I’m expecting Kirk Cousins and company to come out firing as they assert their dominance in the NFC North. There has been a changing of the guard.

Noah Fant, Seahawks ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

The Jets are getting Mike White back this week. You know what that means. The weapons will actually be utilized, and the Jets will move the ball. How does that help Fant? Seattle will need to make plays down the field.

The Jets have given up nearly 200 yards to opposing TE over the last two weeks. Geno Smith is having a career season, and will be looking to get Fant involved. Fant has a touchdown in three of his last four contests. He doesn’t have slate-breaking upside, but he could pay off well here if he finds paydirt.

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord. Take advantage of our projections while you build your lineups for Week 17 on FanDuel and DraftKings! Let’s continue to finish strong this season!

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 15, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Week 17 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 2 years ago

written by Justin Elick

George Kittle, 49ers ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

Cole Kmet, Bears ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)

He is such a sneaky good play this week, and one that I’ll be locking into my single-entry lineups.

Darren Waller, Raiders ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

TJ Hockenson, Vikings ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

Noah Fant, Seahawks ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord. Take advantage of our projections while you build your lineups for Week 17 on FanDuel and DraftKings! Let’s continue to finish strong this season!

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 15, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 17: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

I hope everyone had an excellent holiday season and are ready for a big start of the 2023 calendar year with some NFL DFS! As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Quick note regarding Quarterbacks: I’ll continue to attack the mid-tier range at the quarterback position for that value I’ve been discussing over the past month. It’s been working and this is a full slate with 13 games. There is a ton of value on this slate and the pay-up, Patrick Mahomes, is likely in a slower game environment that I will probably avoid. Justin Fields is always in-play and capable of breaking the slate on a 70-yard touchdown run, but I do worry about his health status and lack of designed runs we saw last week against Buffalo. Maybe that was just a fluke and Fields is a fantastic play this week in the highest total game on the slate, but I’m going to save money at the quarterback position again in Week 17 NFL DFS.

Aaron Rodgers ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – We’ve been picking on the Vikings’ secondary throughout this whole season and won’t stop now as we get Aaron Rodgers at home in a must-win game. If Christian Watson is out, that will hinder my love for Rodgers this week as they can simply lean heavily on the running game, but regardless, he’s in a beautiful matchup for a very affordable price. With 80% of the field likely to roster Jared Goff in cash games, I’ll leave Rodgers to the NFL DFS GPP player pool.
Deshaun Watson ($5,800 DK / $6,700 FD) – If you’ve been following my articles lately, you know that I love playing these $5K price-range quarterbacks with rushing upside. Watson is finally priced below $6,000 (on DraftKings) and is going to be 1% owned in this Week 17 slate. As everyone looks to roster Aaron Rodgers, Mike White, and Jared Goff in this price range, the guy with the highest upside in Deshaun Watson is the forgotten man. Yes, he’s looked like garbage so far this season, but in NFL DFS GPP lineups, Deshaun Watson is one of the AETY Model’s favorite value and leverage plays on the slate at the quarterback position. The Commanders’ defense is solid, but they’re extremely beatable through the air and grade out as a top-10 adjusted-expected matchup for opposing rushing quarterbacks.
Jared Goff ($5,600 DK / $7,400 FD) – I’ll keep this one brief. Jared Goff is on fire in terms of fantasy points per game over the past five weeks and gets a cakewalk matchup at home against the Bears’ 29th ranked pass defense (DVOA). The Detroit Lions’ have the HIGHEST IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL on the slate, lol! I don’t know if I have ever typed those words in my life. In cash, you’re playing Jared Goff. In tournaments, Goff is still a fine play (just know you’ll need to get different elsewhere), but I’ll pivot to Rodgers or Watson in hopes that the Lions’ do most of their scoring on the ground with their three running backs.

Honorable Mention: Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, Mike White, Tom Brady

NFL DFS Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ($8,000 DK / $9,200 FD)
Dalvin Cook ($7,000 DK / $8,300 FD) – I don’t think I’ve got Dalvin Cook right all season long, but I’ll go back to the well this week against the Packers’ 32nd ranked run defense (DVOA). This is going to be a highly competitive game with a lot of points scored (according to the AETY Model and Vegas totals), and the price is right here for a lead running back who hardly leaves the field. If the Vikings’ want to win this game, they’ll need to take advantage of the Packers’ inability to stop opposing running backs.
David Montgomery ($6,900 DK / $7,500 FD) – Montgomery is a GPP only play for me in Week 17 NFL DFS. We will see some Khalil Herbert like we did in the beginning of the season, but this offense runs through Justin Fields and David Montgomery. We’ll likely see a sub-5% ownership tag and that leverage Montgomery offers against Justin Fields’ chalk is always something noteworthy in a high-total game against a run defense that grades 26th in DVOA.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,800 DK / $7,000 FD) – Great price and a good matchup for a true three-down running back with 18+ touch equity. As long as Damien Harris is out, Stevenson is a cash game staple and fine for your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*Damien Harris will be active. Now off this situation as a whole.
Miles Sanders ($5,900 DK / $6,800 FD) – Like Dalvin Cook, I’ve never got Miles Sanders’ week right this season. At the price and the expected ownership (15-20%), Miles Sanders is perfect for your NFL DFS cash game lineups and is worthy of a GPP roster spot as the Eagles have the #1 DVOA advantage in terms of rushing attacks against a horrendous rushing defense.
Isiah Pachecho ($5,600 DK / $6,300 FD) – A double-digit home favorite at sub-5% ownership… GPP sex. The Denver Broncos run defense continues to plummet and Pachecho is hiding in-between all of the chalk value running backs. Let’s go.
Tyler Allgeier ($5,300 DK / $6,700 FD) – It looks like the Falcons have given rookie Tyler Allgeier the keys to this offense as they start to slowly cut ties with Cordarrelle Patterson. At the price, Allgeier offers our lineup a ton of value and a safe bet for 15+ touches with significant touchdown equity. Allegeir is full-go for cash and GPP lineups in Week 17 NFL DFS.
Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,200 DK / $6,900 FD) – With no Antonio Gibson, lock in Brian Robinson for 18+ touches against the Browns’ 30th ranked run defense (DVOA). The AETY Model had a very hard time projecting the passing down work for this backfield now that Gibson is out, so it’s best to leave Brian Robinson to GPP lineups and just find $100 more for Tyler Allgeier if you need a cash game value running back.

*Update: Ownership now warrants a cash game roster spot for Brian Robinson Jr.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Cam Akers, Leonard Fournette

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($9,500 DK / $9,200 FD)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,200 FD) – Core play for me in all formats. I don’t really care what the ownership is. This is a prime matchup for any pass catcher against the Bears with an added bonus to those who line up in the slot.
Mike Evans ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – Mike Evans historically dominates the Carolina Panthers and will enter this slate at 2-4% in ownership. Evans is one of my favorite NFL DFS GPP plays against a Panthers’ secondary who will be without their cover corner in Jaycee Horn. This is a must-win game for the Bucs’ and a perfect buy-low spot on the outside of this Carolina coverage for the struggling Mike Evans.
Amari Cooper ($5,800 DK / $7,100 FD) – As I love Deshaun Watson in GPP lineups this weekend, I obviously love his top target in Amari Cooper. With or without Benjamin St. Juste, this is a matchup Amari Cooper should thrive in and the AETY Model expects this one to go well over the total of 41 points. I wouldn’t say this is a sneaky shootout, but the value is there with everyone in the matchup priced down in all NFL DFS formats. Cooper is only of interest to me in my GPP builds.
Garrett Wilson ($5,500 DK / $7,300 FD) – Ridiculous pricing on DraftKings. Wilson is a clear $6K or more wide receiver on any given week, let alone the weeks where Mike White is playing quarterback. He’s an absolute cash game staple this week and a fine value piece for GPP lineups in a must-win game for the New York Jets.
Allen Lazard ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD) – With or without Christian Watson this week, Allen Lazard is in fantastic matchup against the Vikings’ pass funnel defense. The Vikings have been playing significantly more Cover-1 man defense and that’s where Rodgers loves to use the hot routes to his most trusted pass-catcher, Allen Lazard. As long as this game has good pace, Allen Lazard is one of the best pass-catching values on this slate and will be a core play for me in all formats.
Courtland Sutton ($5,100 DK / $6,800 FD) – The AETY Model LOVES this spot for Courtland Sutton but that scares me a bit as we haven’t really seen a big game from the big-bodied wideout in since Week 2, but he’s quietly gone for double-digit fantasy points in each of his past four games. The Chiefs’ secondary has been bleeding production to wideouts this season and based on the Vegas pre-match numbers, this is a perfect gamescript for Sutton and the Broncos pass catchers.

For whatever it’s worth, Sutton lead the Broncos with a 28% target share when Greg Dulcich was injured to begin the season. Now that he is on the IR, we should expect Sutton to move around the formation more and fill some of those “hybrid” routes that Dulcich was running. At 2-5% ownership and a valuable price-tag, Sutton is a GPP favorite of mine.
Drake London ($4,900 DK / $6,700 FD) – Simply too cheap for the expected volume. In cash, I’ll probably lean Allgeier over London, but if you need the savings, London is a perfect cash game play and someone I would also consider in NFL DFS GPP formats against this banged-up Arizona secondary.

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, DJ Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jakobi Meyers (20% ownership tag likely warrants a cash game roster spot), Romeo Doubs, DJ Chark, Elijah Moore

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,100 DK / $8,300 FD)
TJ Hockenson ($5,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – Broke the slate last week and is a fine play again this week in all formats. Over the past four weeks, Hockenson actually has six more targets than Travis Kelce. The volume is too good for the price.
Cole Kmet ($4,500 DK / $5,300 FD) – Kmet is the only healthy pass-catcher on this Bears’ offense who poses a threat in fantasy football. He’s quietly lead this team in targets throughout the 2022 NFL season and should be heavily leaned on in the shootout at Detroit. The Lions grade 26th in pass defense DVOA to opposing tight-ends.

Honorable Mention: George Kittle, David Njoku, Tyler Conklin

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Jared Goff
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Garrett Wilson
Brian Robinson Jr.
San Francisco 49ers

UPDATE: I will unfortunately be out of town on Sunday morning and will miss the livestream so here is my NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Deshaun Watson
Isiah Pachecho
Amari Cooper
Courtland Sutton

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings/FanDuel DFS Quarterback Plays Week 17

Capper Steve 2 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Week 16 was a delight in our quarterback article, using Daniel Jones or Gardner Minshew hit pay dirt at four and five times their salaries on DraftKings. If you followed one of these paths last week, it led you to the likes of Justin Jefferson and AJ Brown, crushing your competition. Week 16 could play out the same way, so let’s get right to it. The Main Slate brings us back to 13 games of NFL action for this Sunday. The playoffs are approaching and we need to ask ourselves… Who needs to win? Quarterbacks from these hungry teams who are looking to advance are who we prefer in DFS. And here they are!

Check out our NFL Week 17 DFS Quarterbacks!

Patrick Mahomes ($8,500 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel)

He refuses to vacate the top spot at quarterback week in and week out. Mahomes steers the ship of the past-first Kansas City offense that oozes fantasy volume and continues to keep their opponents out of the win column. KC is still fighting for the number one seed and a bye, so expect Mahomes to be at his best against the Broncos’ team ultimately in disarray after firing their head coach.

Jalen Hurts ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) Gardner Minshew ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel)

The water is still murky in Philadelphia, who is going to get the start? Either or would be safe to lead the high-octane Eagles offense against a Saints’ defense that has been gashed all season. At the moment it looks like Minshew will get another crack at the role, he smashed his $4,800 price tag for 28 DK points in Dallas last week. If Hurts gets the green light, by all means, roll with the MVP front-runner. It’s tough to fade a guy who has put up over 30 DraftKings points per game since Week 12.

Justin Fields ($7,900 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel)

The last time Detroit played Justin Fields, he laid 40 fantasy points on them, setting a new record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 147. Since his Week 10 performance, his salary has skyrocketed, and rightfully so averaging well over 20 fantasy points per game. Consider paying up for Fields on a slate full of value at quarterback this week. In GPP’s his price may draw low ownership while facing a Lion’s defense that has ranked rock bottom in DVOA to quarterbacks all season.

Trevor Lawrence ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel)

Update: Lawrence may be pulled to prepare for Week 18 division game against Tennessee

T-Law has hit his stride in his sophomore season and is two regular season wins away from bringing the Jaguars back into the postseason. He scored well over 30 fantasy points in two of his last three games and gets a cozy matchup against a Texan team that’s already thrown in the towel. Lawrence is a steal on Draftkings and one of the top value plays for the slate at quarterback.

Aaron Rodgers ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel)

I know what you’re thinking… Rodgers, seriously?! The future hall of fame hasn’t even sniffed 20 fantasy points since Week 10, but we can’t ignore the pass-funnel defense of the Vikings. Minnesota has allowed the most passing yards all season with over 330 yards to four of the last five opposing quarterbacks. In a must-win situation at home, Rodgers can’t afford to be overlooked.

Jared Goff ($5,600 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel)

Will go back to the well one more time with Jared Goff, who continues to give you more bang for your buck at quarterback. He has everything going for him in this Week 17…salary savings, a game total of 52, at home indoors, and a healthy receiving core against a Bears’ 31st in DVOA in points allowed per game. A nice option for cash or tournament lineups this weekend.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week DFS Quarterbacks article for Week 17. There will be tons of content covering each position all week, cash games and tournaments, and plenty of articles, videos, and podcasts so check in with us whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be up on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning live stream to keep up to date with all the last-minute news. Tag me @Jdicarlo78 on our Discord chat or Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78. Fellas let’s keep the green screens coming!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT – WEEK 16 SATURDAY CHRISTMAS EVE SLATE DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 15 saw us hit 4 of the top 8 scoring RB’s. But we left some meat on the bone with our Tier 1 RB’s as only one, Derrick Henry, broke out for a big game. But once again we saw 2 RB’s with an ownership under 1% (Algier & Mack) end up in the top 10. Those are the off-script plays that often make, or break, a slate. This week, Saturday is the big slate so this article focuses on those 10 games. Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to you all!

Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out the NFL Pre Lock Show on Sunday at 11am on YouTube.

As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K).

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

DERRICK HENRY $8600 DraftKings $9800 FanDuel

I’ll make this one quick and simple. Derrick Henry has rushed for 200+ yards in four straight games against the Houston Texans. His game lines look like this:

10/30/2022: 32 rushes, 219 yards, 2 TD’s

1/3/2021: 34 rushes, 250 yards, 2 TD’s

10/18/2020: 22 rushes, 212 yards, 2 TD’s

12/29/2019: 32 rushes, 211 yards, 3 TD’s

While the Texans have been better of late, do your best to find room for Henry on Saturday. Jacksonville won on Thursday so the Titans need to do everything they can to win this game. Which means feed King Henry.

SAQUON BARKLEY $7900 DraftKings $8500 FanDuel

Barkley bounced back last week from one of his worst games of the season and put up a solid 23 DK points. He’s pretty much the whole offense for the Giants, minus some runs from Daniel Jones. And he should be able to find some room this week against the Vikings as they allow the 13th most points to RB’s per game. Most teams attack Minnesota through the air, as they allow the 2nd most passing yards. But understanding the Giants issues in the passing offense, it’s likely they’ll use play action to open up the passing lanes to eventually setup the run. I have confidence in Saquon this week and rank him as my #2 RB.

DALVIN COOK $7200 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

This one pains me because I’m playing against Cook in the WinDaily Fantasy Football league playoffs this week (see picture of matchup below). But Cook has a dream matchup facing a New York Giants rush defense that ranks 31st in DVOA. The Giants have allowed a team to rush for 100 yards or more in 6 consecutive games. And they are 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game at 150.4. Cook has not broke a slate this season so I like him more in cash. But he’s getting the touches, 85 over the past 4 games, so he has potential for a high ceiling and at this salary is playable in GPP’s. I would just rather go with Henry or Barkley and a lower tier RB for my tournaments and save Cook for cash (maybe that’s me hoping for a dud to help my WD team).

Team DGLOECK (left) vs Team JLOVE (right) in the WinDaily Fantasy Football League Semis

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

KENNETH WALKER $6400 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

Starting a dinged up RB is always concerning. But Walker draws a good matchup against the Chiefs who allow the 11th most points to RB’s. Coach Pete Carroll said Walker will go and if he’s out there they’ll feed him. He received 16 touches last week in a tough matchup against SF and still managed to put-up double-digit fantasy points. The biggest concern will be the possibility of a blow out. But KC has played 4 one score games in the past 5 weeks and that included games to Denver and Houston. So I’ll tread lightly here but will get some exposure to Walker against a vulnerable KC defense.

MILES SANDERS $6200 DraftKings $7100 FanDuel

Sanders was a disappointment to fantasy owners last week as he managed just 42 yards against the Bears and their 30th ranked run D. However, that was more on coach Nick Sirianni as Sanders received his first carry 20 minutes into the game as the Eagles focused on passing early against Chicago. Now that Jalen Hurts has been ruled out this week against the Boys, the Eagles will try to dominate the line of scrimmage and slow the pace of the game. That means Sanders could be in line for a heavy workload. Which would make sense as Dallas is coming off a game in which they allowed 192 rushing yards to Jacksonville. Since owners will be down on Sanders from last week, and the fact that Minshew is at QB, we should see low ownership here which also boosts his value.

EZEKIAL ELLIOTT $6000 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

Zeke has been a model of consistency over the past 5 weeks. He’s had no less than 15 carries but no more than 17. And he’s scored at least 1 TD in each of those games while averaging 17 DK points per outing. He’s a better value on FanDuel because of his TD potential. But I also see value on DK, especially in cash where his floor is low (hasn’t scored less than 15.1 DK points in 10 weeks).

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

JERRICK MCKINNON DraftKings $5900 FanDuel $7300

I was on the sidelines again with respect to ownership of Jerrick McKinnon. I just didn’t see a game script where the Texans would take the Chiefs to OT. And I feel that you need a game where KC has to get in full pass mode to get McKinnon to break again. With the weather in KC projecting to be freezing (high of 20 F), this feels more like a ground game which would benefit Pacheco. However, Seattle allows the 2nd most points to RB’s primarily because they give up a ton in the passing game to lead backs. Just look at these games from lead RB’s:

McCaffery – 6 receptions
Josh Jacobs – 6 receptions
James Conner – 5 receptions
Austin Ekeler – 12 receptions
Alvin Kamara – 6 receptions
Javonte Williams – 11 receptions

That’s 6 RB’s in 14 weeks that have at least 5 catches. That’s music to Andy Reid’s ears and will likely mean another 60%+ snap count for McKinnon. He’ll be chalk but will likely be worth it at this price especially on DK. He’s a fade for me on FD.

JK DOBBINS DraftKings $5800 FanDuel $7000

This is my favorite RB on the board on Saturday. Dobbins has gone for 245 yards in his last two games averaging 18.9 DK points in those games. On Christmas Eve, he gets to face the Falcons who are 26th in rush defense DVOA. With Lamar Jackson already ruled out, it should be another run heavy game for the Ravens which should feature Dobbins. He out-snapped his main RB competitor, Gus Edwards, 2 to 1 last week which shows the Ravens have confidence JK is fully back from his injury. Let’s load up on the Ravens rushing game versus a bad Falcons defense that is pretty much playing for a draft pick.

DEVIN SINGLETARY DraftKings $5400 FanDuel $6400

The weather forecast in Chicago for Saturday is a high of 13 degrees F. It will be cold and windy which benefits the running game. And what benefits the running game even more is the fact that Chicago is 27th in rush defense DVOA. While James Cook is pushing Devin Singletary some, it’s still been #26’s backfield as he hit 60% snap count last week against Miami (his highest since Week 11). I see potential for Singletary to get a good dose of carries (15+) and be a valuable GPP option in your lineups on Saturday.

NFL DFS BONUS PICKS

My bonus pick this week is JAMAL WILLIAMS ($5200 DK, $6800 FD). The NFL’s leader in rushing TD’s is down in the dumpster diving salary range. Yes he’s stunk it up the past 2 weeks with a combined 7 DK points. But he’s still seen double digit carries every single week this season. And he gets to face the Panthers who are 21st in rushing defense DVOA and 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Carolina is coming off a game where they allowed 156 yards to the Steelers which was Pittsburgh’s 3rd highest output on the ground this season. With the weather being a factor in the northeast due to a winter storm, I see another game that could turn into a ground battle which favors Williams since Swift is mainly deployed for passing situations.

RB PROP BETS

DEREK HENRY Anytime TD (-145 DK)

JERRICK MCKINNON over 3.5 receptions (+120 DK)

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT – WEEK 16 SATURDAY CHRISTMAS EVE SLATE DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K).

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

DERRICK HENRY $8600 DraftKings $9800 FanDuel

I’ll make this one quick and simple. Derrick Henry has rushed for 200+ yards in four straight games against the Houston Texans. His game lines look like this:

10/30/2022: 32 rushes, 219 yards, 2 TD’s

1/3/2021: 34 rushes, 250 yards, 2 TD’s

10/18/2020: 22 rushes, 212 yards, 2 TD’s

12/29/2019: 32 rushes, 211 yards, 3 TD’s

SAQUON BARKLEY $7900 DraftKings $8500 FanDuel

DALVIN COOK $7200 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

KENNETH WALKER $6400 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

MILES SANDERS $6200 DraftKings $7100 FanDuel

EZEKIAL ELLIOTT $6000 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

JERRICK MCKINNON DraftKings $5900 FanDuel $7300

McCaffery – 6 receptions
Josh Jacobs – 6 receptions
James Conner – 5 receptions
Austin Ekeler – 12 receptions
Alvin Kamara – 6 receptions
Javonte Williams – 11 receptions

JK DOBBINS DraftKings $5800 FanDuel $7000

DEVIN SINGLETARY DraftKings $5400 FanDuel $6400

NFL DFS BONUS PICKS

RB PROP BETS

DEREK HENRY Anytime TD (-145 DK)

JERRICK MCKINNON over 3.5 receptions (+120 DK)

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL DraftKings/FanDuel DFS Quarterback Plays Week 16

Capper Steve 2 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Check out our NFL Week 16 DFS Quarterbacks!

What a weekend of quarterback dominance, as we keep chugging along in DFS by giving you our best of the best for the slate each week. Although Herbert was a huge let-down to us all in a game flow that turned out to be a punting exhibition in LA., we did strike oil with Brady producing 20-plus fantasy points for 4X value! Let’s get back on track for Week 16 when we will have another weekend full of NFL excitement. Before we get into our quarterbacks I’d like to wish everyone at WinDaily a Happy Holiday Season! May your lineups be merry and as sizzling as the logs burning in your fireplace! Quarterbacks, Week 16…Here they are!!

Josh Allen ($8,500 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel)

He’s a matchup and weatherproof QB, scoring almost 40 DK points on Miami this past Saturday night. Allen will continue to pulverize the competition in Chicago where the Bears’ defense has been so bad they couldn’t stop a nosebleed (30th in points allowed DVOA). The Windy City may see some below-zero breezy temperatures, which could lead to the MVP in Buffalo using more of his legs (77 rushing yards on the Fins in Week 15’s partial snow game). But the severe wind would cause problems in the passing game for sure, so we should keep an eye on weather reports during the week.

Patrick Mahomes ($8,400 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel)

Since the Chiefs have struggled to put away their opponents and close out recent games, Pat Mahomes stays busy putting points on the scoreboard. The Kansas City defense has allowed its opponents in their last two games to pile up a total of 52 points, forcing Mahomes to fire back in each game (688 PaYds/5 TDs). to pull out the wins. Lock him up against a Seattle defense that hemorrhages points on the board to opposing teams, ranking second-to-last in the league.

Jalen Hurts (If healthy) ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel)

There’s a dense fog in Philadelphia this week concerning the quarterback of their 14-1 Eagles, is he going to play? If the medical staff clears him, then so do I. In one of his biggest games of the year facing Philly’s NFC rival Dallas Cowboys, Hurts will do what he usually does…light up your lineup (39 DK points last week). But if he sits and we get a dose of Minshew-Mania, I could only use him in a Milly-Maker, especially on the road against that Cowboys’ pass rush…way too risky for cash.

Kirk Cousins ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel)

What a show from Captain Kirk on Saturday afternoon, 37 DK points in a half-game of football…are you kidding me? This week he’ll see a disheveled New York Giant secondary who will be at the mercy of Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings’ receiving core. His price tag on DraftKings is too juicy to pass up, particularly after last week’s record-breaking performance and throwing for over 400 yards in two straight games.

Geno Smith ($5,800 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel)

He’s fighting for a spot in the playoffs, leading the Seahawks into the lion’s den of Kansas City for a potential shootout. I touched on the Chiefs’ inability to finish anybody off in the Mahomes‘ breakdown, so Geno should get the red carpet rolled out for him with his receivers on Christmas Eve. KC’s cushy zone defense will see a heavy dose of DK Metcalf with the absence of Tyler Lockett this week, a force who has been uncontainable this season. Geno under $6K on DK/mid $7K on FanDuel is a huge bargain in a game that may go back and forth for four quarters.

Daniel Jones ($5,600 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel)

No, this is not a typo, we have a New York Giant in our write-up this week! He is the absolute under-the-radar play at quarterback for the slate and would create a ton of space for the rest of your lineup. While playing indoors against a deteriorating Minnesota defense, Jones could easily march up and down the field just like Matt “Noodle Arm” Ryan did last week. Danny Dimes laid 29 DK points on Detroit back in Week 11. So in a similar turnstile type of defense, (Vikings are 28th in DVOA to quarterbacks) I would throw him in my GPP lineups.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week DFS Quarterbacks article for Week 16. There will be tons of content covering each position all week, cash games and tournaments, and plenty of articles, videos, and podcasts so check in with us whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be up on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning live stream to keep up to date with all the last-minute news. Tag me @Jdicarlo78 on our Discord chat or Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78. Fellas let’s keep the green screens coming!

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NFL DFS Week 16 TNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

If anyone had told you at the beginning of the season that the Jets/Jaguars showdown Week 16 had playoff implications, you would have called them crazy. Well that thought has become a reality. The 6-8 Jaguars are just a game out of 1st in the AFC South, while the 7-7 Jets are fighting for a wild card spot. New York (New Jersey though, am I right?) is favored by one point with a total of just 36 points. Let’s keep the hot streak on showdowns rolling!

DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.

Captain/MVP Plays

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars ($17,100 DraftKings, $16,500 FanDuel)

Aside from a small bump in the road against Detroit, T-Law may be the hottest QB in the NFL over the last month. He has thrown for 11 touchdowns to just one interception, and has at least 318 yards in three of his last four. The Jets have been one of the best defenses in football, but there’s no way I’m fading T-Law right now.

The Jets have surrendered just 13 touchdown passes allowed this entire season. Something has to give, and I’m banking on the suddenly hot Jaguars to keep it going. Not only has Lawrence been on fire, but he is throwing the ball a LOT. He has attempted 40, 37, 31, 42, and 42 passes in his last five games. Volume alone will keep him in play in this one, and I’m all aboard the Jaguars bandwagon right now. DUVALLLLLL!

Garrett Wilson, Jets ($13,500 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

Wilson has found a way over the last month regardless of who has been under center. He has posted 26.4, 27.2, 13.8, and 13.8 points in his last four games. The Jags have been a solid defensive unit for much of the season. They have still served up over 35 fantasy points per game to opposing WR, and Wilson has been the Jets’ rock.

Having Zach Wilson under center isn’t a good thing for anyone but Zach Wilson. That said, he was competent last week. His accuracy is still embarrassingly bad for a professional QB, but Wilson will remain the top target. Garrett is quickly approaching the 1,000 yard mark, and will likely hit it on Thursday night. He is averaging almost 10 targets per game over his last four (highlighted by 15 against Minnesota). If you want upside on the Jets offense, your first glance needs to be at their stud rookie.

Christian Kirk, Jaguars ($15,300 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)

While the masses flock to Zay Jones here, I’m pivoting to Kirk to be different. Not only is he more expensive, but he will undoubtedly be lower owned. Jones has totaled 14-186-4 over his last two games, and has been a top-7 WR in fantasy in both weeks. He may be getting some extra attention from Mr. Sauce Gardner in this one, and that’s what I’m hoping.

Now let’s get back to Kirk. Despite the monster performances of late for Jones, Kirk has still had plenty of value. His last six games look like this (DraftKings points):

21.6

34.5

8.1

19.4

9.5

15.2

Not too shabby. Against the Lions a few weeks back, Jones struggled to the tune of just 2-16 on seven targets. What did Kirk do? Be the #1 WR he is being paid to be. He picked up the slack with a 6-104 line on eight targets. Jones has asserted himself, but in my mind, Kirk is still the top dawg. If we can get him at a fraction of the ownership, even better.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Zonovan Knight, Jets ($7,000 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)

Another option I’m looking at that could come in lower owned than he should is Knight. Yet another rookie (and a UDFA at that) who is making waves. He is coming off a weak game with just 13 carries for 23 yards. That also occurred against the Cowboys, who we all know are one of the top units in the league. Well, good news for us…the Jaguars are not the Cowboys.

Jacksonville ranks 23rd in the NFL, allowing nearly 25 fantasy points per game to opposing RB. Michael Carter will see some work in this one, but it still looks like Knight’s job to lose while Breece Hall is on IR until next year. James Robinson could be a threat to take some work also, but I’m still holding steady on the Knight train myself.

Evan Engram, Jaguars ($7,600 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)

Speaking of hot players, Engram continues to roll. He has totaled 70.4 DraftKings points over the last three, directly coinciding with the Trevor Lawrence breakout. He has at least 14 DK points in each of those games (and 42.2 against the Titans).

The Jets aren’t a team we would be going out of our way to target heavily on a full slate, but this isn’t a full slate, is it? Engram is actually in a decent spot. The Jets are 22nd in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing TE. Engram has seen thirty-two targets over the last three weeks.

Volume, volume, volume. Three times is enough, right? Volume.

Jaguars D/ST ($3,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

Is the Jaguars defense better than the Jets defense? Absolutely not. But Trevor Lawrence is about 10000x better than Zach Wilson. The MILF-hunter himself has seven scores and seven turnovers in eight games this season. He quite simply has been terrible. Even the Jets don’t want to start him, but Mike White is injured. Consider it a blessing. It will truly be a Christmas miracle if Wilson doesn’t turn the ball over in this one. I’ll call my shot with a defensive score on TNF for Jacksonville…and just imagine the leverage when that happens. I mentioned how I’m high on the Jags, right? This is a plug and play for me.

Other Options

I’m not super high on Elijah Moore here. I much prefer Garrett Wilson and not much else in the Jets passing game.

Chasing CJ Uzomah’s “big” performance seems incredibly foolish. He scored on both of his targets, and now has a whopping 17-178-2 line on the season. Pass. Big Pass. Mega pass. Uber pass.

If you’re absolutely dead set on another member of the Jets’ passing attack, give me Tyler Conklin. He has actually produced at times this season, and volume has been there when playing from behind more often than not.

Marvin Jones is always a threat to find the end zone, and with the Jags’ passing volume, he will see some looks.

Let’s not forget about Travis Etienne, Jr...he faces a tall task against this defense, but his speed and elusiveness could lead to him breaking the slate on a single play. I’m more focused on the passing game, but you absolutely NEED exposure to him. He is arguably the most talented player in the pool for this showdown.

Listen, the Jets’ QB sucks. Have you heard that yet? They will struggle to finish drives, which leads us to Greg “The Leg” Zuerlein. He is a few years removed from being elite, but he still has a massive range. They used to call him “Legatron”, right? Maybe not, but I still like him here.

Riley Patterson is in play here too. The total is very low…Vegas isn’t expecting many touchdowns. Get some legs in your lineups.

Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.

Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT – WEEK 15 MAIN SLATE DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 14 was a confounding week for RB’s as we saw just 6 backs go for more than 20 DK points. And 6 of the top 12 RB’s had ownership values of 2% or less (McKinnon, Mack, Hubbard, Dobbins, etc). But Week 15 is here and brings us some juicy running matchups that we’re eager to pounce on.

As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K).

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

DERRICK HENRY $8000 DraftKings $9500 FanDuel

Derrick Henry got back to his King ways last week as he rushed for over 100 yards for the first time in 5 weeks. While the Titans lost their 3rd game in a row to the Jags, it’s obvious they need to re-focus their offensive game plan to get Henry the ball more. He’s seen just an average 17.5 touches per game in their 3 game losing streak. But this week they face the Chargers who are 28th against the run allowing 147 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee’s offense is just 20th in rush DVOA but when Henry has faced a rushing defense in the bottom half of the league in DVOA, he’s averaging 21.1 DK points per game. With this game being played in LA, and no real threat of bad weather, this projects to be a big game for the NFL’s 2nd leading rusher.

JOSH JACOBS $8100 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

Josh Jacobs is in a groove at the perfect time for season long fantasy owners. He’s put up an average game score of 27.9 points over the last 5 weeks. And he’s now the leading fantasy scorer for RB’s in the league. While he got dinged up last game against the Rams, he was able to finish. Additionally, that was a Thursday night game so he’s had some extra days to heal. He faces New England this week and they allow the 2nd least points to RB’s in the league. But they did just allow 23.4 fantasy points to James Conner on MNF. And they’ve allowed some big games to RB’s earlier in the season (i.e. Aaron Jones) but have not seen much quality at that position as not one team in the AFC East has a rusher in the top 18 in the league!

So don’t fear the matchup but instead take the consistent runner who will be able to put up points as long as he’s healthy heading into this game.

TONY POLLARD $7100 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

This is the first time all season that Tony Pollard has made the Tier 1 price range as he shot over $7K for Week 15. But that won’t stop us from riding the Pollard train as he continues to produce big numbers week in and week out. Since Dak Prescott returned in Week 7, Pollard has averaged 25.2 DK points and that’s over a span of 7 games. His carries went down last week but that’s because they got off script with the Texans hanging in the game. The Cowboys face Jacksonville this week who allow the 10th most points to RB’s and are 16th in the league in rush DVOA. Pollard should be able to once again find space and score from distance which will ultimately lead to another big day for the Dallas RB.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JAMES CONNER $6900 DraftKings $8400 FanDuel

Kyler Murray’s injury soured a night and game that the Cardinals should have won on Monday vs. New England. But it’s now Colt McCoy’s team which should mean it’s a more balanced running game for the Cardinals. James Conner has looked good all year but in particular the last two games where he’s rushed for 205 yards on 40 carries. He’s facing the Broncos this week who just allowed 34 points to the Chiefs and 35.4 DK points to RB Jerrick McKinnon. The Broncos have allowed an average of 123 yards rushing per game over the past month. I believe Conner will find space in the running game but also be very effective in the passing game which will put him in prime position to have a big game on Sunday.

ALVIN KAMARA $6800 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Kamara has been one of the biggest busts of this fantasy season. He has only 550 yards rushing in 12 games and surpassed 62 yards in a game just twice. But have some faith because today he has the Falcons and the potential for a huge game. Let’s remember, Kamara gave us two huge games this year and the “milli-maker” lineups rostered him those weeks. So the potential is there, the opponent is there and the price is good. Atlanta is 28th in rush defense DVOA and allows the 20th most points to RB’s. They’ve allowed a rusher to go for 85 yards or more in 5 straight games. And the Saints still have a small glimpse of playoff life so they’ll play with urgency which should mean a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara today.

MILES SANDERS $6500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Miles Sanders polished off the Giants last week and also put a bow on his season. He ran for 144 yards which put him at 1068 yards on the year making it his first 1000 yard season. And now he gets to face the weak rushing defense of the Chicago Bears who rank 29th in rush defense DVOA. The only negative with Sanders is that he isn’t a factor in the passing game as he has just 18 receptions this year (41st amongst RB’s). But this game shapes up to be similar to the Green Bay game a few weeks ago where the Eagles focus on the run and try to dominate the line of scrimmage versus an undermanned defense. And just so you know, Sanders ran for 143 yards and 34 DK points versus Green Bay. Smash the Sanders button this week.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ISIAH PACHECO DraftKings $5600 FanDuel $6600

The Chiefs rookie RB has been a steady contributor in the last month averaging 14.9 DK points in his last 4 games. While Jerrick McKinnon turned into the fantasy superstar last week, Pacheco still had 13 carries for 70 yards and saw 47% of the snaps. But that game turned into more of an aerial event than predicted due to Denver’s success against the KC defense. I don’t see that happening this week with Houston. The Chiefs should be able to create separation and then rely on the running game to close it out. And that will be a perfect game plan for Pacheco against the league’s 32nd ranked run defense in the Texans. Don’t sleep on the momentum Pacheco has built up in the last month as I like him much more than McKinnon this week.

ZONOVAN KNIGHT DraftKings $4600 FanDuel $6400

Even though Michael Carter returned last week, Zonovan Knight had 17 carries to Carter’s 5. The snap count was actually in Carter’s favor though as he outsnapped Knight 50% to 47%. But this week is the return of Zach Wilson and I believe we could see both back have a solid game today. That’s because the Jets will not go crazy in the passing game due to the lack of trust they have in Wilson. And their opponent, Detroit, is allowing the 26th most rushing yards in the league. I’ll put my trust in Knight and his recent production (15.3 fantasy ppg) against a team that has historically been soft against RB’s.

NFL DFS BONUS PICKS

My bonus pick this week is anyone healthy in New England’s backfield. It’s looking like RHAMONDRE STEVENSON ($6900 DK) will miss the game. So if that’s the case I’m looking at PIERRE STRONG ($4000 DK) to have a big game against a soft Raiders D. Las Vegas is 18th in rush defense DVOA and would be worse except for the fact they are 32nd in pass defense DVOA. We know New England’s recipe to win is to create turnovers on and run the ball on O. And while they’re doing that, they like to showcase players you’ve never heard of. Which is exactly where Strong falls in as he comes from the Roadrunners of South Dakota State as a 4th round pick in the 2022 draft. So let’s roll with the unknown and maybe see a $4K RB pop along the way.

RB PROP BETS

MILES SANDERS Anytime TD (-125 DK)

ISIAH PACHECO anytime TD (-110 DK)

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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