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NFL DFS

NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 6

Joe DiCarlo 2 years ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

It was another profitable week for cash, we can’t miss our picks! D-Hop, Hollywood Brown, and Wandale Robinson were a few of our headliners that gave us great value. Week Six will still be a little light due to the byes and another game across the pond on Sunday Morning. Eleven games on this slate, so let’s get right to it. We lost some pretty big names to IR including Justin Jefferson and DeVon Achane last weekend, which will open doors up to some value and pivots in Week Six.

Remember to stay tuned to all of our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Let’s keep the momentum moving in the right direction, The Week Six Breakdown is full-throttle, let’s ride!

Sunday Main Slate 10/15/23

Niners @ Browns (+7) (O/U 37.5)

Locks: Christian McCaffrey

The Niners land in the dog pound as the number-one offense in football, but with an over-under of only 37.5 we should consider pumping the brakes, especially in the passing game. Other than the workhorse of CMC I’d consider paying up for the San Fran DST ($4,000 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) especially because Cleveland is left with quarterback PJ Tucker to fill in for Deshaun Watson.

Now that I’ve touched on the Browns QB situation, how can we rush to draft any players for the rest of this offense? We all saw what happened to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys on Primetime television, so how can we trust PJ Tucker to run the Browns’ offense? But the Browns also can play a little defense themselves. Sign me up for a dirt-cheap Browns DST ($2,200 DraftKings/$ 3,800 FanDuel) in a low-scoring, possible weather-dampering game, who rank first against opposing quarterbacks.

Panthers @ Dolphins (-13.5) (O/U 48.5)

Locks: Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert

The schedule keeps getting easier for the Dolphins, sitting pretty as two-touchdown favorites against the lowly Panthers. With De’Von Achane hitting IR there will be plenty of running the rock with Mostert (Panthers allow 140 rushing yards/game; 30 FPTS to running backs) and quick slant passes to Hill, but will Carolina even put up any points? If you can pay up for the Miami DST ($3,500 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) go for it. Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) already shows low ownership, making a great pivot at quarterback for GPP.

If the Panthers find themselves in a big hole, they will be forced to throw the ball for the entire game. Bryce Young loves his veteran Adam Thielen, but his salary is getting a little too inflated for a thirty-something receiver on a terrible team. DJ Chark ($4,000 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) against a Miami Cover-Four defense would be a slick GPP dart, fading the Thielen chalk.

The Panthers May also be ruling out starting running back Miles Sanders, who hasn’t practiced all week. If he’s out, Chuba Hubbard ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) becomes a lock at RB regardless of game flow and matchup because of the volume at a low cost.

Update: Miles Sanders and Jeff Wilson Jr. are out! Salvon Ahmed ($4,500 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) is a viable GPP pivot!

@goatz_films
How is Raheem Mostert still this fast fast 💨 #nfl #week2 #fyp #run #fast #still #raheemmostert #miamidolphins #football #touchdown #footballgame #wow #footballedit #edit #highlights #sports
♬ original sound – 𝖌𝖔𝖆𝖙𝖟

Vikings @ Bears (+2.5) (O/U 44.5)

Locks: Justin Fields; TJ Hockenson

Watch the weather for this matchup, we could get a little rain with some wind. The Vikings have lost Jefferson to IR with a hamstring, what a bummer. But his absence will create cap space against one of the worst corners in Chicago of Tyrique Stevenson, KJ Osborne ($4,400 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) is your free space for the weekend, especially with a banged-up Jordan Addison. Kirk Cousins ($7,100 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) and Alexander Mattison ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) will be candidates for a GPP, lining up behind one of the toughest offensive lines in the league.

Bears receiver DJ Moore ($6,500 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) is locked in with Justin Fields and is foaming at the mouth for another smash spot against a Minnesota defense (31st in DVOA against the pass) that loves to blitz. Moore put up video game stats (8REC/230 YDS/3TDS) last Thursday, get him in while he is still affordable.

Now the Bears have also put a dent in their backfield. Khalil Herbert is doubtful and Roschon Johnson is still in concussion protocol. D’Onta Foreman ($4,400 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) will be the lead back if the trend continues, but hopefully, Roschon Johnson ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,800 Fanduel) clears and we won’t need to stoop that low.

Update: Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, and Travis Homer are all out for the Chicago backfield!

Seahawks @ Bengals (-3) (O/U 45)

Locks: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Burrow

The boys in stripes are back in town, so let’s ride the hot hand with Joe Burrow ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) and Ja’Maar Chase ($8,300 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel) against the worst pass defense in the league (Seattle 32nd in DVOA). The duo from LSU connected on 15 of 19 targets, for 192 yards and three touchdowns, Chase again should torch Seattle when they line up for Cover-Three, just be aware of the weather with possible wind and rain.

Cincinnati’s run defense has been second-to-last as of late, which sets up Kenneth Walker ($6,700 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) to crush coming off a bye week. Tyler Lockett ($5,700 DraftKings/$ 6,600 FanDuel) could benefit on Sunday too, as long as the Bengals stick to Man Coverage. Both will make fantastic GPP prospects.

@jamarr_nfl
ALWAYS F*CKING OPEN‼️ #fyp #bengals #jamarrchase #jamarr_szn #nfledit #touchdown #joeburrow
♬ original sound – will

Colts @ Jaguars (-4) (O/U 45.5)

Locks: Trevor Lawrence; Travis Etienne

The Colts lost their rookie first-round stud Anthony Richardson to IR, however, veteran backup Gardner Minshew ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) is no ordinary backup. “Uncle Rico” will be back in Duval County, where he spent his first three seasons. Minshew will not be gun-shy on Sunday, utilizing his weapons Josh Downs ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) and especially Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,300 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel), who has feasted on the Jaguars for his career (32 REC/366YDS/2TDS) since 2021.

This game screams a breakout for Trevor Lawrence ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) this season. He’ll be chalky for DFS, but feel free to double-stack him with the likes of Calvin Ridley ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel), Evan Engram ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel), and Christian Kirk ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel), who will smash Indy’s Cover 3 and 4 Zone Defense (24th in DVOA).

Commanders @ Falcons (-2.5) (O/U 42.5)

Locks: Bijan Robinson

Sam Howell peppered the Ba Jesus out of Logan Thomas ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) last Thursday against Chicago (11 Targets for 9REC/77YDS/1TD). He’s still priced down this weekend, and there’s no reason why Howell won’t revert to his giant red-zone target against a Falcon team that just does not cover the position (31st in DVOA).

The Falcons will be very below-the-radar play for DFS, as the field is not showing much ownership so far this week. When Bijan is not receiving check-down passes when the Commanders blitz, Desmond Ridder should exploit Washington’s weak Man Coverage with Drake London ($4,800 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) or Kyle Pitts ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel). Both are solid value options for Cash or GPP games.

@quankeepscorinn
#flockcowboys #goofynfl
♬ Listen Up – RMC Mike

Saints @ Texans (+1) (O/U 42)

Locks: Alvin Kamara

So we have back-to-back weeks for Kamara to rebuild and pad his stats, facing the marshmallow Texans’ run defense. A stud for cash, and since Houston runs out plenty of Zone, stack Kamara with a dirt cheap Michael Thomas ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel). Thomas lives in the middle of the field, hopefully, he finally finds the endzone this weekend, he is due!

Houston’s receiving core enters the weekend with questionable tags (Tank Dell, Robert Woods). Although the Saints’ defense has been pretty tough to throw on (183 Pass YDS/Game), John Metchie III ($3,100 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) would be a nice punt play at his salary if Woods and Dell can’t suit up. Or we can default to the Texans’ number-one option Nico Collins ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) along with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud ($6,000 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel), who has yet to throw a pick.

Patriots @ Raiders (-3) (O/U 41.5)

Locks: Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams

Vegas will welcome Belichick and the Pats with open arms, especially former team members Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) and Jakobi Meyers ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel). They’ve hooked up on 26 of 32 targets, with three touchdowns, and will look to keep the momentum going on Sunday. But let’s not forget about one of the best wideouts in the game Davante Adams ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel), who just destroys no matter what coverage the defense throws out at him. Whether the Pats throw out Cover One, Two, Three, or Blitz, Adams will be a barn burner for GPPs.

As for the Pats, well not much going on here but the clam chowder up in Massachusetts. But hold the phone, we could extract some value with all the injuries at wideout (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Demario Douglas). Tight end Mike Gesicki ($2,600 DraftKings/$ 4,700 FanDuel) will tower over the Raiders’ linebackers when he lines up in the slot, use him in tournaments as a dart throw and save up on some salary this weekend.

Until the Pats’ offense as a whole can be figured out, they’ll be a turnover machine driven by Mac Jones, a start-up that Raiders DST ($3,900 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel).

Eagles @ Jets (+7) (O/U 41)

Locks: Jalen Hurts

The Eagles remain undefeated and will ride up I-95 to look to stay that way this Sunday. Running behind the best offensive line in the league, D’Andre Swift ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) continues to benefit fantasy managers, ranking fourth in yardage (434) and catch percentage (88.3%). Safe for Cash and GPP formats, still can’t figure out why his price remains low moving into Week Six.

Well if Philly does their job and lights up the scoreboard, New York will be playing catch-up all afternoon. Second-year back Breece Hall blew the doors off of Denver, toting the pigskin 22 times for 194 yards and a score. Start’ him for tournaments, but overall this could be a gruesome game with both defenses and Zach Wison’s struggles at quarterback. Pay-up spot here for the Eagles DST ($3,800 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) if you can afford them.

@nflrjc
Showing Detroit what they missed out on #dandreswift #eagles #lions #runningback #rb #nflrjc
♬ Legendary – Rio Da Yung Og

Lions @ Bucs (+3) (U/O 43.5)

Locks: David Montgomery

Jared Goff may be on the road, but he gets Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) back, who can eat off of a Bucs’ Cover Three scheme in Week Six. Jahmyr Gibbs again will not make it on the field, leaving David Montgomery the bulk load of carries for the second straight week. Remember Goff can turn into a pumpkin on the road, so an inexpensive Bucs DST ($2,300 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel) will be our paydown for defense this week.

On the Tampa side of things, it’s been the Mike Evans ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) show. He’s shaken off the hamstring off the Week Five bye and looking to add to his 30% target rate for the Bucs, with 337 yards and three touchdowns in four games.

Cardinals @ Rams (-7) (O/U 48.5)

Locks: Cooper Kupp; Puca Nacua

To wrap up the slate, we’re serving up the GPP stack, on the menu are Matt Staford ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) and Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel). The passing volume is available for Kupp and Puka Nacua ($8000 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel), which caught me off-guard. Facing this horror show of an Arizona secondary, pick your poison of either or, along with Stafford in a Rams’ high volume-passing offense. Running back Ky Williams ($6,500 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) should begin to show low ownership, making him Milly-maker-worthy leading the league in snaps (86%), and ready for any goalline opportunity.

On the Cardinals’ side, the latest news is James Conner’s IR designation has left us in limbo of what will happen at running back moving forward. Whether it be Demercado or Ingram, stay away as it’s not worth the risk in this offense. Stick with Marquise Brown ($5,300 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) with his high floor of 16 fantasy points that will see one more time against LA when they run Cover One defense.

@flockrams
this is an obvious mismatch.
♬ original sound – flockrams

Cash Core

Mostert
Logan Thomas
KJ Osborn
Trevor Lawrence

GPP Core

Ky Williams
Davante Adams
Drake London
Mike Gesicki
Matt Stafford

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 6. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass for 50% off using promo code HALFOFF50 here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 6

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had a great NFL Week 5 here at the Running Back Report Card. I hit on 4 of the top 5 RB’s in terms of scoring. And more importantly I recommended avoiding certain high priced, high ownership plays such as Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry. Now if we could have seen Zack Moss ripping up the number one rushing defense with his backfield partner suited up for the first time this season. That would have put an A+ on the card but instead I’ll settle for a solid A and carry that momentum into Week 6. Speaking of this upcoming card, unlike last week when we recommended lower salary RB’s, we have a case for many top level backs considering their matchups.

Please check out Stix’s weekly projections when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also, remember to check out the NFL Pre-Lock Show on Sunday at 11 am on YouTube.

I highlight my favorite ten RBs each week and break them into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

DAVID MONTGOMERY $7300 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

It’s crazy to think that David Montgomery sits here in Week 6 as the third highest salaried RB on the slate. But it’s well deserved as he’s averaging 22.0 DK points per game and getting over 70% of the snaps. As for usage, he has 93 touches which is the 8th most in the NFL. And that’s with missing one game! Otherwise, Montgomery would easily be perched around the #2 or #3 position as far as touches go.

This week he faces the Tampa Bay Bucs who are ranked 21st in rushing defense according to DVOA. It’s hard to gage exactly what this Bucs D is against the run as they have played only one close game this season and that was against the pass-happy Vikings. But in the game they lost to the Eagles, Philadelphia committed to the run and gained 201 yards rushing. And in their last game against the Saints, in which they won by 17 points, New Orleans abandoned the run but their RBs had 14 catches. I’m looking at a closer game here, and one in which the Lions will feed Montgomery. So he’s inline for another big workload and against a D that has surrendered good games to RBs this season.

TRAVIS ETIENNE $7100 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

The Jags are back in the States after spending the last two weeks in England. But they are coming home with two massive wins, against the Falcons and Bills. as they look to build on that versus a Division opponent this week in the Colts. For all the noise behind Trevor Lawrence’s consistency, the one thing that has been consistent is Travis Etienne and his usage rate. Etienne is 5th in the NFL with a 78% usage rate and 2nd in the league in touches with 113. And he’s coming off his first 100-yard rushing game of the season last week against the Bills.

As for the Colts, they are allowing the 12th most fantasy points to RBs. And they are ranked 17th in rushing defense DVOA. More importantly, the Jags and Colts have already faced off this year and in that contest, Etienne received 23 touches and scored 21.4 fantasy points. He’s my favorite back in Tier 1 this week as his opportunities will be high and the Colts have been allowing points to RBs.

JOSH JACOBS $7000 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

It’s a Josh McDaniels reunion party in Vegas this week as he welcomes in his old team, the New England Patriots, to town. Both teams are looking to find an identity on offense as their struggles are being magnified each week. In fact, these are the two lowest scoring teams in the league with the Patriots at 11 ppg and Raiders at 15.8 ppg. So it’s not a favorable game environment but there are still pieces here to deploy. And that starts with Josh Jacobs.

As is the theme with our first two backs in this tier, Jacobs is an every down back that is in 7th in snaps at 78% and 3rd in touches with 105. The Patriots are allowing the 11th most points to RBs which included a big week to Alvin Kamara in Week 5 (19.7 DK points). Jacobs has a similar skill-set to Kamara’s and is a threat in the passing game which should bode well against a New England defense that has allowed 6 catches per game to RBs.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

ALVIN KAMARA $6800 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Kamara has given the New Orleans offense a much-needed boost. In his first two games back in the lineup, he’s garnered 70% of the snaps and 73% of the touches. And this week, he gets a dream matchup facing the Texans. As we all know, the Texans run D has been at the bottom of the league for several years now. They have improved this season but are still ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league in most categories. According to DVOA, they are the 22nd ranked defensive rushing unit. And PFF ranks them as the 2nd worst rushing defense in the league. So I’ll trust the advanced stats here and expect the Saints to see the same.

KENNETH WALKER III $6700 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Kenneth Walker opened the season with some questions as the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet to provide competition in the backfield. Well Walker has answered those questions as he’s getting 68% of the snaps and 65% of the touches. He’s also scored five rushing touchdowns this season which is noteworthy since it shows he’s getting the goal line carries.

His opponent this week is the Cincinnati Bengals who have been terrible against the run. Cincy is the 30th ranked rush defense according to DVOA. And they’ve allowed the second most rushing yards to date (770 yards). This is a smash spot for Walker and one in which he should take advantage of both on the ground and in the air.

KYREN WILLIAMS $6500 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

The Rams didn’t attack the Eagles D so it was an off week for Kyren Williams. But he gets a great matchup this week in the Arizona Cardinals who are allowing the 5th most points to RB’s. The other good news is that Williams has six rushing TDs so far this season. This should be a prime week for the Rams to reinvent their running game.

RAHEEM MOSTERT $6400 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

Mostert is in a great game environment against the Panthers this weekend. Carolina is allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs. And with Achane now on IR, the backfield is Mostert’s and Wilson’s. And in this scenario I will back Mostert as the lead dog.

D’Andre Swift $6100 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

As we like to say here in Philly, each week is someone’s week. Last week it was a Goedert week. The week before it was an AJ week. This week is going to be a Swift week as the Eagles will look to avoid Sauce Gardner and take advantage of a Jets defensive front that is allowing the 8th most points to RBs.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ALEXANDER MATTISON $5600 DraftKings $7600 FanDuel

I believe the transition from Mattison to Akers is coming. But for one more week, I’ll ride the Mattision bandwagon. He gets a great matchup against the Bears who are allowing the 3rd most points to RBs. And they are 29th in rushing defense DVOA. Add in the fact that Jefferson is out, the Vikings should be focused on the run game and incorporating Mattison more.

D’ONTAE FOREMAN DraftKings $4400 FanDuel $6100

For the record, I prefer Roschon Johnson over Foreman. But as of this writing, Johnson hasn’t practiced due to a concussion. So the value on Foreman is too good to pass up especially if he gets the lead role.

RB PROP BETS

WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Five

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Four weeks in and we hit our first losing weekend of the season. Fading the public has resulted in negative results to date. But that doesn’t mean we should change our formula or plan of attack. This season is a long sprint and past data shows that we can stay on top as long as we are consistent. As for survivor, we stayed alive albeit barely. The Eagles won in OT against their Division rival Commanders to let us stay afloat. For my pool, there are just 15 people left and I have two of those entries. I hope you have a similar script and if so I’ll give you my top play of the week below.

As always, I like to look at some of the trends from the previous week. For week 4, it was all about the public once again as they went 10-5-1 ATS (over 50% of bets made on a side). Overall favorites were 9-6-1 on the week and covered several big lines including the 49ers spread over the Cardinals. Vegas is waiting for a reckoning, and it might come as soon as Week 5. As always, they will get their money back, but the key is to find out when.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 9-7 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 5

PITTSBURGH +4.5 vs BALTIMORE

I played Pittsburgh in Week 2 which was following an embarrassing defeat. We are in a very similar situation as the Steelers are coming off one of their worst performances in several seasons. In Week 4, they lost to the Houston Texans by a score of 30-6 and were outgained by over 200 yards to a rookie QB. This made four straight weeks in which the Steelers were outgained but yet they are still 2-2.

While this was somewhat predictable in parts because the Steelers offense is unequipped to battle with top teams, they are in an advantageous position this week as Baltimore comes to town. First off, Steelers HC Mike Tomlin is notorious for bouncing back after a loss. In fact, the Steelers have won their last six games as a home underdog following a road loss. And looking back at this series as a whole, the underdogs have covered the spread seven straight times.

Baltimore is also playing it’s third road game in their last four weeks. All three of those are against Division opponents. Finally, the public is backing the Ravens heavily as 66% of the bets and 70% of the money is coming in on Baltimore so far. One week doesn’t define a team but last week’s optics put the Steelers in a poor perspective for public bettors. Instead, I see value in Pittsburgh this week and think they’re live for an outright win against their heated rival.

NEW YORK GIANTS +12.5 at MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Giants laid a big fat egg on MNF in Week 4 against the Seahawks. And there is little reason for hope and optimism with Big Blue. Their QB, Daniel Jones, is underperforming but the O-Line isn’t helping as they allowed 11 sacks to Seattle last week.

But here’s the thing, 97% of the money and 90% of the bets have come in on Miami. I haven’t seen a situation, or a game, where Vegas would be setup to lose that badly.

This is a close your eyes and pray type of bet, but similar to the Chiefs last week against the Jets, the bets on this game is too lopsided and feels like a setup. In 2022, double digit underdogs went 19-9-1 ATS. They haven’t fared as well in 2023, but the data set has been too small as we’ve seen only four games with double digit spreads.

I’ll take Vegas, and the recent trend of big dogs covering, when placing my Giants bet this week. It’s risky, but to me worth the backing in this spot.

CINCINATTI BENGALS -3 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS

We have two teams sitting at 1-3 but also pointing in different directions. Up until last week, the Cardinals were competitive in every game and even pulled off a huge upset against the Cowboys. Because of that positive play, they are sitting as 3-1 ATS on the season.

Cincinnati on the other hand has been playing terrible football. They are 1-3 overall and 1-3 ATS but could easily be 0-4 if the Rams didn’t let them off the hook two weeks ago. Last week felt rock-bottom as the Tennessee Titans dominated the Bengals on both sides of the ball.

So as both teams are headed in different directions, we’ll never see an opportunity like the one presented to back the Bengals. Preseason odds had this spread at -7 or higher. The Bengals were one of the top four teams in Super Bowl futures betting while the Cardinals were last. Yet, we now have polar opposites in terms of play and now the spread is just Cincinnati -3.

There comes a point when the Bengals will just simply have to wake up and play better and I’m betting it’s this week in Arizona. The road can be the best place for a struggling team and can offer a place for them to bond and focus on football only. I’ll bet this is the week the Bengals finally straighten things out and start to play like the team we all expected they were.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +5.5 at BUFFALO BILLS

This is a proverbial road game for Jacksonville but in reality, they are closer to home than their opponent. The reason for that is this game is being played in England where the Jaguars have a minimum of one game per year. And in this case, it’ll be their second straight game playing overseas making them that more comfortable and ready for the environment and travel.

The other factor in play is the lopsided action on this game. As of right now, the Bills are getting 75% of the bets and 89% of the money. A classic case of over-perception on one team as Buffalo is coming off one of the most impressive wins of the season when they beat the Dolphins 48-20.

SURVIVOR PICK MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Eagles made it closer than it needed to be last week against the Commanders. But they prevailed in OT and got the most important stat of all, a Win. So we move forward and I’m going to roll with the Dolphins this week. Even though I’m taking the Giants with the points, they don’t have enough firepower to keep up with the Dolphins Fast and Furious offense. The GMen will do their best to avoid a 1-4 start and will give a spirited effort. But Miami is too skilled, and too fast, for the Giants to pull off the upset.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 5

Joe DiCarlo 2 years ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Welcome to Week Five! It will be a little light on the slate with just ten games, so we will have to be even tighter on our builds, especially for cash. Three games with high totals will entice most of the field for ownership, but we can also draw some good production from the other matchups, as the gruesome defenses of the Giants and Broncos will be on the menu. Now that we have gathered enough data from these horrific secondaries and front seven’s, it’s time to attack.

Remember to stay tuned to all of our injury news and updates and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Now let’s get into this Game by Game Breakdown, it’s Week Five already…Here we go!

Sunday Main Slate 10/8/23

Giants @ Dolphins (-11) (O/U 49.5)

Locks: Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa, Wandale Robinson

The Giants will be in trouble again if they’re without Saquon Barkley and left tackle Andrew Thomas. This offense is in shambles, but if there is a glimmer of light for Big Blue it’s on Wandale Robinson ($3,000 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel). Since his return in week three, he’s seen 11 targets catching on, and quickly emerging as the Giants WR one.

Miami will be out for blood this Sunday after suffering a crucial division loss to the Bills last weekend. Devon Achane ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) has been spectacular, in just 18 carries, he’s rushed for 304 yards and six touchdowns. Expect the rookie to get even more at work this weekend against the Giants defense that cannot stop a nosebleed (133yds. rushing allowed per game)

Honorable Mention: Jaylen Waddle ($7,500 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel)

Update: Saquon Barkley is OUT

Panthers @ Lions (-9.5) (O/U 44.5)

Locks: Jared Goff (he’s at home), David Montgomery

The winless Panthers come to Detroit eager for a win, but their chances look slim this weekend. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young will continue to struggle against the tenacious defense of the Lions, but will at least get his fellow draft-class receiver Jonathon Mingo ($3,300 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) back. The price is right for a wideout with 19 targets in only three games.

Detroit will be even more weaponized for Week Five as Jameson Williams ($4,000 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) will be reinstated from his suspension early. His role may get bigger in his first game back, depending on the health status of Josh Reynolds and Amon-Ra St. Brown, so keep an eye on their status this weekend. Oh and run it back with the touchdown machine David Montgomery ($6,600 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel), The Panthers cannot stop the run if their lives depended on it (28th in DVOA/136 yards allowed per game).

Honorable Mention: Sam La Porta ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel)

Update: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs are OUT

Ravens @ Steelers (+4) (O/U 38.5)

Locks: Lamar Jackson

Now that Lamar Jackson has returned to his true fantasy form ranking first in the league in completion percentage (78.8%), it’s safe to continue to roster his weaponry, especially against a dazed and confused Steelers’ secondary (30th in DVOA). Zay Flowers ($5,500 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) and Mark Andrews ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) provide a one-two punch catching the football and continue to be Jackson’s first and second options through the air.

This season for the Steelers is not getting off to a good start, as they continue to blunder on both sides of the ball. They got spanked by Houston on the road 30-6 and Kenny Pickett went down with a knee injury. Although he practiced in full on Thursday, we can’t be confident in the state of this offense…Start that Ravens Defense ($4,200 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel).

Texans @ Falcons (-2) (O/U 41)

Locks: Bijan Robinson

What else can we say about the rookie out of Ohio State C.J. Stroud ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel)? A perfect six to zero touchdown touchdown-to-interception ratio with a floor of 20 fantasy points in three of his four starts. We all know by now Nico Collins and Tank Dell have been studs so far this year, but let’s not sleep on Dalton Schultz ($3,400 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) who finally found paydirt last week. He’ll have a good shot at repeating his performance by drawing an Atlanta defense that tends to forget about guarding opposing tight ends (26th in DVOA).

Atlanta has appeared to have a changing of the guard at tight end as Jonnu Smith ($2,800 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) is out-producing Kyle Pitts ($3,300 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) in fantasy points, although the latter is leading the league in route participation (100%). Both make great punts at tight end this week in a weatherproof, pass-friendly environment at home.

@osubuckeyefootball
280 Yards, 2 TDs…Bro already a top 10 QB #cjstroud #houstontexans #nfl #football #fyp #trending #ohiostatefootball #gobucks
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Saints @ Patriots (-1.5) (O/U 40)

Kamara was peppered tremendously last week (14 targets), possibly due to Derek Carr’s bum shoulder. Hopefully, it’s on the mend as these Saints’ receiving core needs to eat too. Michael Thomas ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) has taken a nose dive in salary and should be considered sooner or later for DFS.

The Pats have struggled on offense as of late, and as much as Mac Jones loves throwing to his tight ends Mike Gesicki and Hunter Henry, the Saints rank 8th against opposing tight ends. Jones was so bad last week in Dallas he was pulled for Bailey Zappe, way too many question marks for New England so it’s a fade here for me.

Honorable Mentions: Saints and Patriots DSTs

Titans @ Colts (-1) (O/U 42.5)

Locks: Anthony Richardson

Well, it’s almost November and you know what that means, Derrick Henry ($7,500 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) will rise from the dead! The stud from Alabama had 27 fantasy points and could put in more work this weekend. DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) has a clear opportunity against the putrid Colts defense (25th in DVOA) who still may be without Shaq Leonard and DeForest Buckner.

All eyes will be on the Colts backfield this weekend as Jonathan Taylor is expected to debut off the PUP list. This news put a damper on Zack Moss’s workload, but Taylor may not yet receive the entire opportunity share. Expect Taylor to be eased back into game shape while Richardson airs it out on a Tennessee secondary (25th in DVOA) that has been at the bottom of the barrel all season. Michael Pittman ($6,400 DraftKings/$ 6,600 FanDuel) disappeared last week, he should re-emerge in this great matchup.

@.sportfanz
Ar15 tuff #sportfanzzz #goofynfl #fyp
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Eagles @ Rams (+4) (O/U 50.5)

Locks: Jalen Hurts

The undefeated Eagles fly into LA to face the Rams in a game with high shoot-out potential. Hurts is the highest-priced quarterback on the slate, but if you can fit him into your budget go for it. A. J. Brown ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) is still ridiculously underpriced, as he has taken over to lead the Eagles receiving core. He should feast again when the Rams try to play man coverage, as he has been a beast against it (19 targets, 414 yards, two touchdowns). Running back DeAndre Swift ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) should also be considered for the slate, as the Rams are 9th worst in DVOA against the run, and will not leave the field if the game stays competitive, which it should.

The Rams will welcome Cooper Kupp back in Week Five, with no restrictions per head coach Sean McVay. So Puca Nacua will now take a back seat slightly with Kupp back in the mix, but using either one for DFS may be too risky because of their price tags. L.A. may attack the Philly linebackers using Tyler Higbee ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel), who ranks 31st in DVOA defending the tight end position,

Bengals @ Cardinals (+3) (O/U 44.5)

Locks: Joe Mixon, James Conner

Let’s face it guys and gals…Joe Burrow is not himself, and the Bengals are not what they used to be. Tee Higgins looks like he’ll miss this game with a cracked rib and Ja’Maar Chase’s salary is too high to spend on Burrow’s gimpy calf. Joe Mixon ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) has been a pillar for the Bengals offense and the only one reliable, with an incredible 84% opportunity share.

The Cardinals have turned a lot of heads this season so far, proving to be one of the most overachieving teams in the NFL, mainly because of quarterback Josh Dobbs ($5,200 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) who continues to deliver for fantasy with a high 20-point floor. Dobbs along with Marquise Brown ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel), Rondale Moore ($3,200 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel), Michael Wilson ($3,700 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel), and Zach Ertz ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) are all viable GPP plays. I didn’t forget about James Conner ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel), by the way, lock him up against Cincy’s 31st in DVOA to running backs.

Update: Tee Higgins is OUT

@dhoptown
not expecting a win but i want some highlights #dhoptown #goofynfl #nfl #nflfans #fyp #popular #viral #blowup #xyzbca
♬ original sound – Zenn Audios

Chiefs @ Vikings (+5) (O/U 53)

Locks: Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins

The world champs looked hung over last Sunday night, barely beating the New York Jets after going up 17-0 in the first quarter. They’ll be in a get-right game in Minnesota against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Isaiah Pacheco ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) appears to have taken over the majority of the backfield and should see plenty of red zone and goalline opportunities again. Be careful with the Chiefs receivers, they are way too unpredictable, so keep them out of cash games.

The Vikings are aiming for their second win, but they’ll have to go through Chris Jones and the KC pass rush. If the Chiefs decide to double up on Justin Jefferson, then Jordan Addison ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) and TJ Hockenson ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) may see some one-on-one man coverage.

Jets @ Broncos (-2) (U/O 43)

Locks: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall

Fasten your seatbelts and get ready for take-off. The Jets will look to avenge a disappointing loss to the Chiefs against the vile Broncos defense, who are dead last in every category. Head coach Robert Saleh let the cat out of the bag this week on Breece Hall ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) losing his snap count this Sunday, telling us to start him for fantasy and DFS. Now he won’t run the ball 30 times, so give me some Zack Wilson ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) to Garrett Wilson ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) also, but Zack should stay out of cash lineups.

We all witnessed on Sunday night what the Jets’ stout defense did to Kansas City in primetime, put them in a vise. I don’t truly want any pieces of Denver’s offense this week, perhaps Courtland Sutton ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) as a mid-range consistent receiver. Looks like the Broncos’ running back is trending to not suit up against the Jets’ 28th DVOA run defense. If he does not go then Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) would be the free square at the position, who averaged ten yards per carry last week filling in for Williams.

Cash Core

Jalen Hurts
Wandale Robinson
Bijan Robinson
Travis Kelce
Garrett Wilson

GPP Core

Josh Dobbs/Zack Wilson
Joe Mixon
Sam La Porta
Marquise Brown
A.J. Brown

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 5. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass for a 3-day, weekly, monthly, and annual membership here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 5

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

It was a hot and cold week for the RBs in Week 4. After staring at the report card, I’d grade the Week 4 Report as a B. The hot part was smoking as our Tier 1 RBs, Christian McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs, combined for 79.6 DK points and were two of the top four RBs on the board. The cold part was most everything else, as only James Cook and Jaylen Warren were recommended backs that returned a 2x value or more.

Looking ahead to Week 5, four teams are on bye, so our set of available games is ten this week. And that makes Tier 1 very light as there are only three RBs with salaries over $7K. As always, the backs will play a significant role in your lineups, but this week, we’ll have to capitalize in Tiers 2 and 3.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

SAQUON BARKLEY $8100 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

Advocating Barkley all hinges on his ankle and how it feels going into Sunday. But if he’s cleared to play, he has a great matchup waiting in the Miami Dolphins. For one, the Giants are a hot mess and were embarrassed on MNF last week. Daniel Jones was sacked 11 times and barely had any clean pockets to throw from. Teams can do that when there is no threat in the running game to help slow down the pass rush and prevent teams from bringing blitzes. The Giants know this, and the best way to create time in the passing game is to establish the run. Which they will be very focused on doing this week.

And the other factor to consider is the Dolphins and their porous run defense. The Dolphins are ranked 29th in rushing defense DVOA. Additionally, they’ve allowed the 8th most fantasy points to RBs this season and the 4th most touchdowns. The biggest issue is the game script. But if the Giants play with better balance, there is an opportunity for Saquon to put up 20+ points. He is in my player pool for that reason alone, but I have better options below.

BIJAN ROBINSON $7700 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

Bijan Robinson is that dude. He runs with power and agility. And while he’s received over 75% of the carries over the past three weeks and is in the top 8 in touches, Atlanta still needs to find him the ball more. That’s because he is just 22nd in the league in carries, trailing Josh Kelly and Alexander Mattison. Factor into that: the Falcons are 31st in passing offense DVOA and have struggled to move the ball consistently through the air (unless it’s to Bijan, who leads the team in receptions).

This week, the Falcons will have a chance to commit to the run early and often as they take on the Houston Texans and their 28th-ranked rushing defense, according to DVOA. While Houston has improved against the run, ranking 19th in rushing yards allowed, most of that has been due to their opponents in recent weeks. The Steelers and Jags rank in the bottom 1/3rd of the league in rushing totals. And both teams average just 3.6 ypc, which comes in as T7th in the NFL.

The most significant difference between these two teams is at the line of scrimmage, as the Falcons own the 3rd highest run-blocking rating in the NFL. Their Center, Drew Dalman, has the highest run-blocking grade of anyone at his position. And the Texans are rated 32nd in rush defense according to ProFootball Focus. If Arthur Smith can dial up the carries by 20%, Bijan could have the highest fantasy output of any RB.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

DAVID MONTGOMERY $6600 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

I really don’t understand the Lions and how they’re using their running backs. But I also can’t ignore it. In Week 4’s domination of the Packers, David Montgomery received 71% of the snaps and 74% of the touches. Yes, that David Montgomery who has a season average of 3.8 ypc and a long of 16 yards. This is the same David Montgomery who has a career ypc of 3.9 and was released by the worst team in football last season. More importantly, they’re giving him 50% more touches than an RB, Jahmyr Gibbs, whom they drafted with the 12th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. And that same back averages 4.8 yards every time he touches the ball.

But enough with that, the Lions like the physical style of Montgomery, and until they open their eyes, he’s going to be in play in positive game situations. Which is precisely what we have this week when the Lions face the Panthers. Carolina allows the 4th most points to RBs and has given up six rushing touchdowns, the 2nd most in football, trailing only the Broncos. And DVOA+ ranks the Panthers as the worst rushing defense in the NFL. It’s a smash spot for the Lions. And as they have proven to date, it will be one in which David Montgomery leads the way.

ALVIN KAMARA $6300 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Kamara returned last week and like many of us thought, he was thrust right into the RB1 spot due to the inexperience the Saints suited up in the backfield. And the results followed as he took 75% of the snaps and had 95% of the touches in his first week of action in 2023. The biggest surprise was his usage in the passing game as he brought in 13 catches on 14 targets.

This week he faces a New England team that was thoroughly embarrassed last week in Dallas. It’s been a tough stretch to start the season for the Patriots as they’ve faced three of the top teams in the league in Philadelphia, Miami and Dallas. And while their defensive numbers against the run are decent, as they have allowed the 10th least rushing yards, there has been issues in the passing game as an average of 5.5 receptions per game to opposing RBs.

If that trend follows suit from last week, we could see another high-volume game for Kamara and one where he’s heavily involved in the passing attack. For that reason, combined with the projected snaps, I will be getting a fair amount of exposure on Kamara.

RAHEEM MOSTERT $6200 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

DE’VON ACHANE $6100 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

I don’t know who to take in the Miami backfield anymore. Mike McDaniel has found a new toy in De’Von Achane and is not afraid to run him out in any situation, including goal-to-go. The last few weeks have played out in negative game scripts and this one has potential for a trilogy. The Dolphins face-off against the New York Giants who own the 27th rated defense according to DVOA. And the NY Giants have particularly struggled against physical backs as James Conner and Kenneth Walker III have put up big games against Big Blue.

I will look to play both RB’s this week but will not pair them together. Ownership projections will tilt to Achane due to his recent big plays. But I will likely lean towards the hand-me-downs with Mostert. The Dolphins have seen the success of those aforementioned physical backs and will look to wear down NY early then deploy the wildcard in Achane. My preference will be a 70/30 ratio favoring Mostert. And I’ll look to get the Dolphins RB’s in a high percentage of my lineups. Afterall, it’s the Giants and they’ve allowed the 6th most rushing yards in the NFL this season.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

JAMES CONNER $5800 DraftKings $7600 FanDuel

This is one of my favorite spots on the card this week. The Bengals have been dreadful this season on offense. But their rushing defense has also been a big problem. They rank 30th in rushing defense DVOA and are 26th in rush defense rating according to PFF. After allowing Derek Henry to get loose for 122 yards last week, they are now allowing the 2nd most rushing yards on the season with 628.

If we know one thing about the Cardinals, they will play hard and physically. And that starts with James Conner who has 70 touches in four games. He was ranked inside the top four in touches going into Week 4, but the route in SF dropped him back to 9th in the league. The price is a season low on DK for Conner yet it’s the worst rush defense he’s faced. I’m all-in on the Conner wagon this week in the desert.

ISIAH PACHECO DraftKings $5700 FanDuel $6100

The Vikings’ rush defense has been decent as they rank 17th in DVOA against the run. And they’ve allowed the 9th fewest points to RBs on the season. But I can’t help remembering Week 2 when the Eagles ran for 259 yards and three rushing TDs. While the Vikings unit may not be that bad, they aren’t as good as the 9th fewest points to RBs. What’s been in their favor is they faced two of the worst rushing offenses in Tampa and Carolina. And their other opponent, outside the Eagles, passed for 445 yards and ran the ball only 13 times. So there is some illusion to the stats, which intrigues me by the prospects of the Chiefs running game this week.

Once in a while, Chiefs HC Andy Reid decides to go to a running game. And after what he’s seen his former team, the Eagles, do to the Vikings as well as understanding the recent play of his own running game, this may be that week. Isiah Pacheco is 11th in the league in rushing yards with 270 and has a 4.9 ypc. He has three straight games of 13 touches or more. When the dust settles this week, Pacheco has a chance for 20+ points, which would be a huge return on value for a back priced this low.

BREECE HALL DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6100

The Broncos are an absolute train wreck. But they somehow pulled out a victory last week in Chicago after trailing the Bears by 21 points. On defense, they have allowed the most rushing yards (704), highest yards per carry (5.6), and most rushing TDs (7). They can’t stop a nosebleed, or any running back with two legs.

There is some risk here with the Breece Hall’s volume. However, he has led the team in snaps the past two weeks with an aggregate of 47%. The Jets also have a few notes on their bulletin board from the pre-season when Broncos HC Sean Payton decided to mouth off about Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett. So there will be a little extra motivation for the team in green. And that should all be focused on the run game and taking advantage of a porous defensive line in Denver. For those reasons, I put my trust in Hackett to use his most explosive RB at his highest usage rate. This price and opponent are too good to pass up this week.

RB PROP BETS

WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Four

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 3 ended in good fashion as the Eagles dominated the Bucs on MNF to get us to 2-2 for the weekend. The bad part was our survivor pick as “America’s Team” got dominated by the worst team in the NFL. Dak was Dak and Dan Quinn got outcoached by a PeeWee Herman doppelganger. That sums it up but the good news is that I play in two survivor leagues so we can keep this train moving.

As always, I like to look at some of the trends from the previous week. For week 3, it was all about the favorites which also meant the public did well since they like to ride the chalk. Overall favorites were 9-6-1 on the week and covered several big lines. And remember, being with the public isn’t a bad thing as witnessed by the 49ers vs Giants game last week. We just need to pick our spots wisely to back the general pool of people because as we know, Vegas wins in the end.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 8-4 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 4

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -1 vs LA RAMS

The Rams sputtered on MNF versus the Bengals going 1 for 4 in the redzone and letting a game slip away that they should have won. HC Sean McVay abandoned the run and ended with a 63/37 run-to-pass ratio. Which was a curious move as the Bengals are ranked 28th in rushing defense according to DVOA.

This week, they get to face the Indianapolis Colts who are a surprising 2-1 to start the season. The Colts are coming off an upset victory in OT against the previously undefeated Baltimore Ravens. And now they come home for a cross-conference tilt with their rookie QB cleared to play. And we’ll get to that in a second. But the key in this game will be the Colts defensive front as they are 2nd in the league with 12 sacks. As we know, Matt Stafford isn’t very mobile and was sacked six times against Cincinnati last week.

As for the rookie QB, Anthony Richardson, his status is the biggest reason I’m backing the Colts. Outside of one late mistake against Jacksonville, this team could be 3-0. And we saw his dynamic playmaking ability in Houston in Week 2 when he ran for two TDs in the first quarter. The Rams faced two bad rushing teams but are still ranked 29th in rushing defense DVOA. This is a great matchup for both Richardson and Moss to dominate the ground game and give the Colts a decided edge to get the W.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +6.5 at DALLAS COWBOYS

The Patriots have arguably the hardest schedule to start the year. That has toughened them up for a game like the one they are scheduled to play Sunday in Dallas. On the reverse side, the Cowboys have faced the easiest schedule in the NFL yet they are just 2-1. They have played against the following QBs; Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson and Joshua Dobbs. While Mac Jones is behind Dobbs in QBR, he is the most talented thrower the Boys have faced this season.

However, the real challenge in this game lies in the trenches. Dallas is ranked 20th in rushing defense DVOA and that’s with the two New York teams ditching the run game due to score. Last week, Dallas allowed over 220 rushing yards to the Cardinals as well as an eye-opening 7.2 ypc. That was against a physical runner in James Conner. Which is exactly what they’ll see this week with Rhamondre Stevenson. Bill Belichick was surely watching last week and took notes.

Then there’s Dak Prescott. The Patriots have bottled up both Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa (I won’t even mention last week’s QB in the same sentence as these two). They will have a gameplan in place to confuse and befuddle Mr. Prescott.

I’m not calling outright, but the coaching margin is as wide as the Grand Canyon and I believe the Patriots will be able to keep this game within reaching distance right to the end.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

The New Orleans Saints not only lost a heartbreaker in Green Bay last week but they lost their starting QB, Derek Carr, to a shoulder injury. And after what we saw from Green Bay on Thursday Night Football, against the Detroit Lions, bettors will surely question the Saints.

But instead, I’m looking at this game as a premium opportunity to back the Who Deys. First, the Saints have only allowed three offensive touchdowns this season. In fact, they haven’t allowed more than 18 points in a game this year. Only three teams have allowed less points than this Saints defensive unit. And if you watched MNF last week, then you know Baker is still Baker. Meaning he’s bad. The Eagles outgained the Bucs by 298 yards as Tampa managed just 174 yards of total offense. The running woes of a year ago are back as the Bucs have the worst yards-per-carry at 2.8.

As for the offense, RB Alvin Kamara returns from a three-game suspension this week which will inject energy, and skill, into the backfield. Then there is Jameis Winston, who will start in place of the aforementioned Derek Carr. We know he is a gambler but one who can get hot. And speaking of getting hot, he’s playing against his former team that discarded him for Tom Brady. Jameis doesn’t need much for motivation but there’s a lot already there for him in this one. I will be tuned into the pre-game hype speech and hoping that energy gets us a winning ticket.

BALTIMORE RAVENS +1.5 at CLEVELAND BROWNS

I promise you all, I tried to avoid the Browns game this week. But after all my research, I just couldn’t turn away. Just like a crazy girlfriend, no matter the circumstance, they have me wanting more. Now, the good news is, I’m 3-0 in Cleveland games this year. So take that for what it’s worth when reading this section.

My concern with the Browns this week revolves around their offense. Even if they were healthy, I’d have doubts about Watson and company and their ability to move the ball on the 5th ranked defense according to DVOA. But health is the key word here, as several notable players including QB Deshaun Watson and TE David Njoku are questionable. Cleveland’s pass offense, so far, is ranked 23rd and they have been sacked 12 times which is 4th most in the NFL.

In the end, this pick is about the Ravens resilience as they lost a tough game last week against Indianapolis. John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson rebound well from losses. In the last two seasons, Jackson is 6-0 SU following a loss (*counting games he started and finished). That’s enough for me to back Baltimore this week and see them win a pivotal division game.

SURVIVOR PICK

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Jalen Hurts is 20-1 in his last 21 regular season NFL starts. The one loss was to the Washington Commanders last year in Philadelphia. That’s enough motivation for someone that doesn’t need much to get him dialed in for games.

And Washington looked terrible last week as they turned the ball over five times against the Bills. The Eagles defensive line will create similar problems for QB Sam Howell and help the Birds get another W.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 4

Joe DiCarlo 2 years ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

First off I want to congratulate our long-time member Scottd923 on his milestone of a takedown last weekend of $500K, our Discord was popping bottles of champagne for you last Sunday evening as the clocks struck 0:00 on the late slate! Just goes to show everybody how hard work and a little luck can pay off tremendously in DFS. Onto the slate, we’re back to 12 games again… awesome! I love the matchups this weekend. The field will be stacking the Miami/Buffalo game, but the Chargers/Raiders and Rams/Colts contests also offer totals in the high forties with ways to get away from chalk.

I’m Joe DiCarlo, feel free to tag me @DiCarlo78 in our Discord or any of our other experts for building advice and questions. Be sure to check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Now let’s get into The Week Four Game by Game Breakdown…

Sunday Main Slate 10/1/23

Commanders @ Eagles (-8) (O/U 44.5)

The Commanders hit rock bottom hosting the Bills, getting waxed 37-3 last weekend. Sam Howell turned the ball over with four picks, keeping his defense on the field way too long and folding to the Bills’ pressure. They’ll have an even stricter matchup this weekend on the road, but the Eagles rank 31st in DVOA to opposing tight ends. Logan Thomas is still pretty banged up, so consider Cole Turner or John Bates for some cap savings.

Fly Eagles fly to stay undefeated at 4-0. Jalen Hurts and company should put up a big early lead, then ride their bread-and-butter run-game featuring D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell. If you can afford to squeeze in the Philly DST, be my guest. On this slate paying up on a defense may be too risky especially if Washington puts up some garbage time points.

@drizfr
D’andre Swift looking crazy 🙏 #fyp #viral #nfl #football #eagles #swift
♬ sonido original – AMG💨

Dolphins @ Bills (-3) (O/U 53.5)

This matchup needs no introduction, pick your poison between the Dolphins and Bills players. They’re all in play for this AFC East divisional contest. I see them going toe to toe on Sunday afternoon, so save your salary cap space. We already know the studs in Stefon Diggs ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) and Tyreek Hill ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel), but who in this matchup can we sneak in our lineups past the field? Quarterbacks Josh Allen ($8,200 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) and Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) will also be too chalky. I’m kind of thinking of the WR 2’s getting a little underappreciated here. Gabe Davis ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) and Jaylen Waddle ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) could easily blow the doors off the hinges in Week Four, consider them for GPPs.

Let’s not forget about these running backs either. We all have seen the highlights (Eight touchdowns split between them) for Raheem Mostert ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) and Devon Achane ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) by now, but James Cook has the best opportunity in the game. He currently ranks third in rushing (267) and faces a Dolphins defense averaging 131 rushing yards allowed per game. Start your engines and buckle up fellas, this is the game of the week.

Vikings @ Panthers (+3.5) (O/U 45)

Looks like the rookie Bryce Young practiced this week, so he should be back in the rotation. Do we want him back for fantasy though? Andy Dalton was over 5X his salary filling in with 26.5 DK PTS. last weekend, like other DFS players, I would prefer the red-head against a gross Minnesota secondary. Adam Thielen ($4,500 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) is the only Panther I’m interested in on the roster this weekend, as he returns to his former team and roots in the perfect “Revenge Game” narrative. He’s been the clear-cut WR1 for the offense this season, in three games he caught 20 passes for 211 yards and two touchdowns.

The Vikes have been stellar for fantasy but have stunk in reality football with a 0-3 start. Kirk Cousins has been lightning in a bottle leading the NFL in pass attempts (138), yardage (1,075), and touchdowns (9). There will be a sense of urgency for Minnesota to get into the win column, using Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson will be locked as usual for DFS. Running back Cam Akers will be worked into the offense this weekend, and will tone down the volume of Alexander Mattison, so consider fading the Minnesota backfield until we see the snap share.

Ravens @ Browns (-2.5) (O/U 41)

Lamar Jackson ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) has re-emerged for DFS thanks to his legs and the depleted backfield of the Ravens, rushing for 101 yards and two touchdowns in Week Three. Now with OBJ and Rashod Bateman continuing to miss practice, Zay Flowers ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) should again command the target share (29.8%). The Browns’ defense ($2,800 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) however is no walk in the park, so Lamar and company may be wise to not chase.

The Ravens’ defense has made some noise themselves racking up 11 sacks in their first three games. Their secondary has been beatable though, ranking 25th in the league, and will be without Marlon Humphrey again. Amari Cooper ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) and Elijah Moore ($4,700 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) make affordable options at receiver for Cleveland.

Update: Odell Becham Jr. and Rashod Bateman are out!

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Lamar Jackson Doing Lamar Jackson Things vs Colts 😱🔥 #NFL #Sports #Football #highlight #Fyp
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Steelers @ Texans (+3) (O/U 42)

The running game has been gross in Pittsburgh as Najee Harris ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) and Jaylen Warren ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) have combined to average 3.6 yards per carry through three weeks. They draw a bottom-of-the-barrel run defense (25th in DVOA) in Houston, putting themselves in a break-out week at affordable pricing for DFS.

C.J. Stroud has been rock-solid as a cheap option at quarterback for DFS three weeks in a row, can he make it four? I’m more than happy to roll the dice one more time, especially with Nico Collins ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) and Tank Dell ($4,600 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel). Running back Dameon Pierce ($5,100 DraftKings/$ 6,300 FanDuel) is due himself for a big game, he’ll face a Steelers team that has been abused on the ground allowing over 150 yards per.

Bengals @ Titans (+2.5) (O/U 41.5)

Joe Burrow ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) escaped re-injuring his calf and coming out on top Monday night, thanks to Ja’Maar Chase’s ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) 12 receptions on 15 targets for 141 yards. The dynamic duo gets rewarded with the Titans in Week Four, who will allow you to run track meets on their lackluster coverage (29th in DVOA).

The wheels are beginning to fall off the Derrick Henry train, as he’s been averaging a skanky 3.2 yards per carry to start the season. On another note, the rookie Tyjae Spears has been averaging a studly 5.5 yards per carry along with nine receptions. But as long as Henry is available, Spears‘ fantasy value is capped. Tennessee has been a dumpster fire for fantasy at this point, stand clear.

Honorable Mention (Squeaky Wheel): Tee Higgins

Bucs @ Saints (-3.5) (O/U 40.5)

Baker and the Bucs finally showed their true colors against a better team in the Eagles and will get a double dose of reality in New Orleans. Mike Evans has been owned by Marshon Lattimore’s coverage over the years (15 receptions since 2020), so this could be a Chris Godwin ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) week on the opposite side of the field.

Jameis Winston ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) could get another crack at his former team filling in for the injured Derek Carr, but that news will be a game-time decision. The last time he aimed for revenge the Florida State Seminole former number one pick tore his ACL. The real piece of the Saints I’d be interested in would be a re-instated Alvin Kamara ($6,100 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) With Jamaal Williams on IR and only Tony Jones Jr. and Kendre Miller to fend off, Kamara will slide right back into the lead role.

Update: Derek Carr will PLAY

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Broncos @ Bears (+3) (O/U 46)

Denver gave up 70 points last week… I mean where do I begin? Patrick Surtain had no help at safety (Justin Simmons sat out) which allowed the Dolphins to run up and down the open field. The game was over by halftime last week, but I expect them to bounce back against a Bears team allowing 31 points per game. From Russell Wilson ($5,800 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) down to Marvin Mims ($3,900 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel), the Broncos offer little risk with high reward value because of their inexpensive salaries.

On the same token, the Bears are in the same boat. Justin Fields ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) finally will see a defense to feast on, but does he still have anything left in the tank? From the fantasy numbers, he put up last season (back-to-back 40-point performances) I would say it’s go time. Keep in mind when two bad defensive teams meet during the season, it usually ends up being a back-and-forth contest for fantasy, make sure to use some Bears and Broncos pieces this weekend.

Honorable Mentions: Courtland Sutton; Jerry Jeudy; Javonte Williams

Rams @ Colts (-1.5) (O/U 47)

The Rams’ offense came to a screeching halt Monday night against Cincinnati, but Indy will be another story. The Colts allow you to move the chains, averaging 365 total yards per game. The Rams will be in a bounce-back scenario, lifting back up the DFS ladder will be Matt Stafford ($5,700 DraftKings/$ 6,600 FanDuel) Kyren Williams ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel), Puca Nacua ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel), and TuTu Atwell. ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel)

The Colts should get rookie phenom Anthony Richardson ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) back this week from concussion protocols, offering a boatload of upside at quarterback. This will boost Zack Moss’ efficiency even more, after his 30 carries and 100-yard back-to-back games. Richardson’s dual-threat attributes continue to freeze linebackers, allowing Zack Moss ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) in for some serious damage on the ground.

Honorable Mention: Michael Pittman

Update: Colts’ O-line Ryan Kelly (C); Quenton Nelson (G); and Bernhard Rainmann (OT) are all OUT

Raiders @ Chargers (-6) (U/O 48)

Jimmy Garoppolo still hasn’t cleared his concussion protocol, so we may get some 38-year-old Brian Hoyer in LA this weekend. Either way, Davante Adams ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) is the main cog of the Raiders’ offense no matter who is throwing the ball. Coming off 13 receptions off 20 targets for 172 yards and two touchdowns, the Chargers secondary is in trouble. Jakobi Meyers ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) would be just as useful in this matchup considering the price difference from Adams.

Bolts up! Chargers finally pulled out a win and look to make it two I. A row at home. Now they’ve lost Mike Williams for the year, so even more volume will be headed in Keenan Allen’s ($7,900 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) direction. Stepping in for the injured Williams will be Josh Palmer ($4,000 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) and first-round pick Quentin Johnston ($3,700 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) Raiders’ corner Nate Hobbs will have his hands full. Eat the safe chalk across all Cash and GPP formats in a high-powered offense led by Justin Herbert ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) who averages well over 40 passing attempts per game.

Update: Jimmy G is OUT…Aiden O’Connell is in for Vegas at quarterback, Game flow could be a factor now with Justin Herbert

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Cardinals @ Niners (-14) (U/O 44.5)

Fresh off their upset win hosting the Cowboys, the Cardinals now head out on the road for another tough matchup as two-touchdown dogs to the Forty-Niners. As much as I love rooting for the underdog, anyone you roster from the Cardinals against this suffocating Niner’s defense is a pure GPP ticket option. Hollywood Brown ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,00 FanDuel) has been filling the stat sheet with back-to-back touchdown weeks, consider him for a dart in a GPP.

San Fransisco is the team to beat again in the NFC, and if they play the way they should, The Cardinals will not have an answer for the amount of firepower they possess. If Arizona lays down and it does become a blowout, then Christian McCaffrey ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) may be resting in the fourth quarter, possibly burning fantasy managers. Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) and George Kittle ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) make the most sense to roster, as they are priced just right, not to mention Deebo Samuel may sit this game out with bruised ribs.

Update: Elijah Mitchell is OUT/Deebo Samuel expected to PLAY!

Patriots @ Cowboys (-7) (O/U 43.5)

Mac Jones ($5,200 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) has quietly become more of a gunslinger rather than a game-manager here in 2023, ranking third in pass attempts (125) and deep balls (16). The Cowboys have shown their weakness without Trevon Diggs by losing to the Cardinals, opening the door for Mac to get in work. Oh and by the way, Zeke Elliot ($5,100 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) is back in town after being released by the Cowboys in the offseason. He gets in the endzone if given the goal-line opportunity,

Dem’ Boyz will be out for blood this weekend after the embarrassing loss to the Cards on the road. Belichick will slow down the tempo, but Tony Pollard ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) has a big reason to carve up the Pats’ front seven. While leading the league in weighted opportunities (59) and red zone touches (27), Pollard could serve as the reverse revenge game narrative, reminding Zeke why he was shown the door. Tight end Jake Fergusen ($3,700 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) does interest me too, as he leads the league in red zone targets with nine.

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Tony Pollard | Top Plays with the Cowboys so far #nfl #highlight #tonypollard #foryou #footballtiktok
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Cash Core

Josh Allen/Josh Palmer/D’Andre Swift/TJ Hockenson

GPP Core

Justin Fields/Ja’Marr Chase/Javonte Williams/Jaylen Waddle

Stacks

Allen/Diggs/Davis/Knox

Tua/Waddle/Hill

Herbert/Allen/Palmer/Johnston

Fields/Jeudy/Sutton/Williams (runbacks)

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 4. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass for a 3-day, weekly, monthly, and annual membership here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 4

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We didn’t give you the highest scoring RB on the slate in Week 3. And that’s primarily because it was a 2nd string RB with only one career carry that ended up leading the board in fantasy points. And “oh by the way”, he was 0.27% owned in the millionaire maker GPP’s. So if you rostered De’Von Achane then I tip my cap and hope you won money. For our other plays, we hit on five of the top ten RB’s with the best play being Kenneth Walker III.

This week looks to be an uphill climb for RB’s as there are several tough spots for some of the higher priced backs. But we have a few angles and plays we’re looking at that can hopefully help you bust the slate and turn your screen GREEN!

Each week I highlight my favorite ten RB’s and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY $9200 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

McCaffrey has been an every down back for the 49ers this season. So far this year, Christian McCaffrey has 81% of the snaps. He also has a total of 71 touches which is 2nd most in the NFL. Outside of Austin Ekeler, who has only played one game this season, the 49ers RB has averaged the most points for RB’s in the league at 25.6.

While those numbers have been great, the better news this week is he faces an Arizona team that allows the 6th most points to RB’s in 2023. So far this season, they’ve allowed an average of 23 touches per game to RB1’s. And here’s what it has looked like so far:

Week 1: Brian Robinson – 13.6 DK points, 1 TD, 20 touches
Week 2: Saquon Barkley – 27.2 DK points, 2 TDs, 23 touches
Week 3: Tony Pollard – 18.10 DK points, 0 TDs, 26 touches

I don’t love paying a steep price like this for RB’s. But this is a good game environment as Arizona has proven they can stay in games and even beat some of the “elite” teams in the NFL. The volume will be there and the opportunity to create positive plays will also be in McCaffrey’s favor. You can build your lineup around CMAC with value plays at WR. So, he’s in my player pool and has a realistic chance at 30+ fantasy points this week.

JOSH JACOBS $7100 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

The Raiders are once again a floundering team that has no sail or direction. Last year’s top RB, Josh Jacobs, has been underutilized seeing an average of 18 touches per game (he averaged 23.1 touches per game in 2022). It’s just another example of Josh McDaniel failing at the head coaching position.

But he has a chance to get it right this week as the Raiders get to face the 29th ranked defense according to DVOA in the LA Chargers. And LA has allowed the 5th most points in the league as they’ve played three games over the total in 2023. And looking back at 2022, Jacobs totaled 201 rushing yards against the Chargers. But more importantly, he averaged 5.6 ypc.

With Garoppolo likely out with an injury, the Raiders gameplan should feature Jacobs. So that bodes well for the NFL’s leading rusher of a year ago to finally get the consistent reps and push towards his first big game of the year. This is a very high ceiling, and one that could mirror that of McCaffrey but for $2100 less.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

RAHEEM MOSTERT $6500 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Scoring 70 points in an NFL is unheard of. Having your RBs score eight of your teams ten touchdowns is literally unbelievable. But those two occurrences did happen last week when the Dolphins beat the Broncos by a score of 70-20. In that game Raheem Mostert and DeVon Achane ended up as the top two RBs of the weekend accounting for a combined 95 fantasy points.

With Jeff Wilson out, the backfield is primarily Mostert’s. While his snap total last week was only 51% that was more based on game script. In Week’s 1 and 2, Mostert had a 73% snap count and 66% touch rate. This week he faces the Bills which has one of the highest totals on the board. The Bills will be focused on limiting Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins explosive passing game which should open up room for Mostert. Also take into account that the Dolphins lead RB has 10 receptions in the first three games.

JAMES COOK $6300 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

James Cook has been everything the Bills hoped for and more as he’s rushed for an average of 6.1 ypc so far this season. And he’s been very active in the passing game totaling ten catches in the first three weeks of action. The only blemish on Cook’s resume so far is his lack of touchdowns. Latavius Murray, Damien Harris and Josh Allen have reaped the benefits of goal line carries leaving Cook with 0 TDs. But that’s not sustainable for a back with this talent and once he hits the endzone he will surely break the slate.

His opponent this week, the Miami Dolphins are ranked 26th in rushing defense DVOA. The Phins have allowed 390 yards rushing, 7th most in the NFL, as well as four rushing TD’s, 5th most in the league. They’ve also allowed the 9th highest fantasy points to RB’s as we saw Austin Ekeler put up 29 DK points against this defense.

RHAMONDRE STEVENSON $6200 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

How about them ‘Boys! The Arizona Cardinals not only won the game against Dallas last week, but they dominated the line of scrimmage. The Cards ran for 222 yards on 40 carries registering a 7.4 ypc. Based on that performance, the Cowboys now sit at 30th in the league in yards per carry at 5.3. They’ve also slipped to 20th in rushing defense DVOA. And this wasn’t against a highly ranked offensive line in Arizona.

So I urge you not to just look at the matchup as a dangerous one as Arizona already taught us how to attack Dallas. As for Stevenson, he has a 70% usage rate and NE is targeting RB’s in the passing game at a 17.1% clip. He is also the primary goal line back so that’s a bonus when considering the NE running back.

ZACK MOSS $6000 DraftKings $6400 FanDuel

It’s hard to ignore any back that gets 32 touches in a week. Especially one that is priced at $6000 and has a good matchup ahead. Zack Moss looks to be it in the Indy backfield as he’s had a 90% snap share the last two weeks. The only back that has touched the ball besides Moss is Trey Sermon who was just signed onto the team two weeks ago.

This week he faces the Rams and will likely have Anthony Richardson back under center. That will bode well for the run game as Richardson’s threat of running will open up holes for Moss. Additionally, Indy’s O-Line ranks fourth in the NFL with a 90.8 run block grade. As for the Rams, they are ranked 29th in rushing defense DVOA and have already allowed a big game to Christian McCaffrey. This is a juicy matchup and one I will be heavily invested in.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ALEXANDER MATTISON $5800 DraftKings $7600 FanDuel

I had Mattison in my core plays last week and he paid off with his best game of the season racking up 17.5 DK points. The fear of Cam Akers is not real, yet, as Mattison had 80% of the snaps and 83.3% of the touches.

This week is another good matchup for the Vikings RB as the Panthers have allowed the 5th most rushing yards in the NFL. And according to DVOA, they have the 32nd ranked rush defense. So it’s still safe to use Mattison until he fumbles away his lead role. And barring turnovers or injury, he should pop this week for a big game in Carolina.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS DraftKings $5500 FanDuel $6100

Javonte Williams didn’t get the opportunities last week due to a classic bad game script. The Dolphins boat-raced the Broncos which left Denver to abandon the run game early. That should be different this week as their opponent is one of the four winless teams in the NFL and the game script should be much better for the Broncos RB.

The Bears have a very bad defense ranking 30th in defensive DVOA. They are also a mess offensively but should be able to put up points against a Denver D that last in total defense DVOA. This is a perfect script for a high-scoring game and one I recommend being heavily invested in this week. And that starts with a very affordable RB option that has a high ceiling in Javonte Williams.

JAYLEN WARREN DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6100

Running Backs are in play anytime they face the Houston Texans. For one, the Texans are allowing the 7th most fantasy points to RB’s this season. And for two, they own the 31st ranked rushing defense according to DVOA.

Warren is my wild-card play of the week as he won’t standout on any charts and will likely have an ownership value of 2% or less. But at this point, it’s the eye test that does it for me as Warren looks much more dynamic than his counterpart, Najee Harris. And in Week 3, we saw Warren get 45% of the snaps which resulted in 8.2 fantasy points. The other key ingredient to this is that Warren has 12 receptions on the season so he is targeted heavily and thrives from Pickett’s inability to throw downfield.

RB PROP BETS

WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 3

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Throw in the towel! Not because of our RB recommendations here at the Running Back Report Card. After all, we hit on six of the top ten scoring RBs last week! But because of the numerous injuries that ball carriers incurred in Week 2. And also, for the curious playcalling by several OCs, including one up in New York.

Using data to pick the best spots for RBs in a given week is challenging enough. But then you add injuries and unpredictable game scripts, and it all becomes much tougher. Ultimately, it was heartbreaking to see Nick Chubb go down with a severe leg injury and for Saquon Barkley to hurt his ankle when the Giants were running out the clock for a game-winning field goal. So erase those bad thoughts. Throw in the towel for Week 2, and let’s start a new contest with the below building blocks for your DFS lineups.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TONY POLLARD $8000 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

Tier 1 is lonely this week, as three of the five backs are out or questionable. So, that leaves us with only a few RBs to pay for. And Tony Pollard should be one of those on your radar.

Pollard is the top ball carrier in one of the best offenses in the NFL. And they face the worst team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals, this week. Already this season, Arizona has allowed 44.9 DK points to RBs, including:

Week 1: Brian Robinson – 13.6 DK points, 1 TD, 20 touches
Week 2: Saquon Barkley – 27.2 DK points, 2 TDs, 23 touches

This follows a similar trend to last season when the Cardinals finished 22nd in run defense DVOA and allowed the 5th most rushing TDs (21). They are 14th in rushing defense DVOA, but the eye test shows they are much worse as they’ve faced two fragile offensive lines in the Commanders and Giants.

I would not worry about blowout potential in this game. Whether the Cowboys score 30 points in three quarters or four, the points will be had against this porous defense in the desert. Pollard has 64% of the snaps this season and is coming off a game where he saw 32 touches. He’s tied for the league lead in touches (48) with Christian McCaffrey. The Cowboys RB is a very safe play this week and one that could break the slate.

BIJAN ROBINSON $7800 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

It only took one week for Bijan Robinson owners to come back in off the proverbial ledge they put themselves on after Week 1. Even though the 2023 NFL First Round pick put up 20.3 DK points in Week 1, Tyler Algeir had more touches and points. However, that changed in Week 2 as Bijan had 28% more snaps and seven more touches than his counterpart.

Overall, Bijan is showing his playmaking ability. The Falcons RB is averaging 6.2 ypc while also reeling in five catches per game. He’s already showing and proving, why Atlanta used a top-10 pick on the former Texas Longhorn RB. And he’s 7th in the league in touches with 39.

This week, he gets to face the Detroit Lions, who play at a fast pace. While Detroit is in the middle of the pack in rushing defense DVOA (13th), they played two teams in the bottom half of the league in rushing offense DVOA and rushing yards. But the Falcons are a different story as they rank 4th in rushing yards and have a prominent offensive line.

This will be a battle of the first two RBs drafted this year and I expect both to shine. For the Falcons to keep pace with an explosive Lions offense, they’ll need to get Bijan 20+ touches once again and provide a good return on a $7800 investment.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TRAVIS ETIENNE $6900 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Etienne did not have a strong game in Week 2 as KC held the Jaguars to just nine points in Week 2. But it wasn’t from lack of availability, as he saw 72% of the snaps. He’s now sitting at a 76% snap rate for the season, which is 6th in the NFL to date.

While we’re confident in Etienne’s role as the primary running back in Jacksonville’s offense, this is more about the Houston defense. After finishing dead last in the NFL in rushing defense in 2022, the Texans are starting 2023 with a repeat in mind. According to DVOA, Houston is ranked 32nd in rushing defense. The biggest eye-opener is the Texans have already allowed six rushing touchdowns this season. The Colts steamrolled through Houston’s frontline and saw their RB Zach Moss post 20.7 DK points.

Doug Pederson is always a wild card and often needs to be reminded to run the ball. But he shouldn’t need any reminders this week, seeing the Texans’ struggles on defense this season.

JAHMYR GIBBS $6600 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Strap on your seatbelts because we’re ready for takeoff. If Lions RB David Montgomery can’t suit up this week, Jahmy Gibbs will be featured in a high-octane offense. And that should make us all very excited.

The talent is there, but the biggest question is opportunity. Even after Montgomery went down last week, Craig Reynolds received more carries (3) on the final two drives than Gibbs (0). Gibbs caught seven passes last week, including three in the fourth quarter.

The other tricky part will be Atlanta’s defense, as they rank 11th in rushing defense DVOA. However, they have allowed 4.5 ypc, 9th most in the league. And they allowed six catches to RBs in Week 1. So, if deployed correctly, Gibbs could have good chances in this game.

Overall, Gibbs is strictly a GPP play for me, and I’ll only consider him on DK as his lack of TDs and rushing yards/attempts make him hard to play on FD.

JAMES COOK $6400 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel

James Cook cashed our bet last week as he went over his rushing yards prop. But more importantly, he scored 22.6 DK points, which earned him top 5 value for RBs last week. Cook has been the lead back in Buffalo to date and has taken 60% of the snaps. The only concern is that he still needs to find the endzone, as Buffalo has used Damien Harris and Latavius Murray at the goal line. We all knew that was a possibility, but at least Cook is also active in the passing game, thus making up for lost points there.

His opponent this week, the Washington Commanders, rank in the top 10 in total defense DVOA. But they are 17th in rush defense DVOA, 17th in rushing yards allowed, and t24th in yards per carry. So, while the matchup looks tricky, there are yards to be had against this tough Commanders front. Keep an eye on Cook’s health but if he’s a go, I expect a full workload and one of the safer plays in Cash.

KENNETH WALKER III $6200 DraftKings $6400 FanDuel

While he only managed 2.5 ypc, Kenneth Walker lived up to his ownership last week by scoring 18.4 DK points against the Lions. Unlike James Cook above, Walker does see the goal line carries and was able to punch two in the endzone last week. That adds to his value, especially against the Panthers this week.

For all the talk of Zach Charbonnet taking carries away from Walker to ease back in from a preseason injury, Seattle’s starting RB has received 62% of the snaps and 72% of the touches.

This week he gets a juicy matchup against Carolina who allows the 3rd most points to RB’s. They’re also ranked 31st in rush defense DVOA. I expect Pete Carroll to take advantage of this matchup and lean heavily on his running game this week making Walker a very good play in DFS.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ALEXANDER MATTISON $5800 DraftKings $7600 FanDuel

The Vikings traded for RB Cam Akers this week in what some see as a move signaling concern with Mattison. The team came out today and inferred the trade was for depth, and they still have confidence in Mattison. And as I type this today, I believe that statement. If Mattison continues at a sub-4.0 ypc and has additional critical fumbles, their stance will swiftly change with a capable RB in town.

However, down the road doesn’t matter, and only this Sunday does; for that reason, I’m confident in Mattison’s potential against the LA Chargers. First, the Vikings have played the top two rushing defenses in the league in terms of yards allowed. That could partly be a reflection of Minnesota, but the Eagles and Bucs shut down quality running teams outside of the Vikings.

The other factor is the Chargers D is ranked 32nd in DVOA. Additionally, the Vikings have thrown the ball frequently and have 0 wins to show. I expect HC Kevin O’Connell to try to establish a run game and wear down the Chargers team, who is traveling for a 2nd consecutive week.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS DraftKings $5500 FanDuel $6100

It has yet to be pretty in Denver so far this season. Karma may be settling in on Sean Payton after his critical comments of each Broncos HC, Nathaniel Hackett. But whatever you want to call it, the Broncos starting 0-2 against non-playoff teams is highly disappointing. One of the few bright spots is the play of Javonte Williams. While he’s played under 50% of the snaps, he has 64% of the touches for Broncos RBs. And that should expand going forward as he provides the highest upside in the backfield.

The Broncos travel to Miami this week and must be ready for a track meet. The Dolphins have allowed 321 yards and a 4.9 ypc which is 5th most in the league in 2023. They are ranked 29th in rushing defense by DVOA. More importantly, the Dolphins have allowed 3.5 catches per game to RBs. We can confidently pencil in Williams for 15+ touches against a defense allowing big plays, which looks like a recipe for low floor and high ceiling this week in Florida.

KENDRE MILLER DraftKings $4300 FanDuel $4700

Miller has been cleared to play and has been a full participant in practice this week leading up to the Saints game in Green Bay. Miller was a 3rd round pick in this year’s NFL Draft, coming out of National Champion runner-up TCU. So there is obvious talent here, and the Saints have a prime opportunity to display that.

For one, Jamaal Williams is likely out with a hamstring injury. And two, he’s facing the Green Bay Packers, who just allowed 211 yards rushing to the Atlanta Falcons. It’s rare we have an RB priced this low with a potential for 20+ DK points. It’s a risk, but one I’m willing to take, especially against a GB team that has struggled against the run for 2+ seasons.

RB PROP BETS

WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Three

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We hit another trio of winners last week, posting a 3-1 record ATS for the second consecutive weekend. And we hit our outright winner in Survivor/Eliminator to keep moving forward. I don’t know about you, but my pools have already seen ~50% of entries eliminated. Though just two weeks, getting this far has been good navigating for us.

As a quick recap for Week 2, we continued to see dogs cover spreads as the favorites went just 7-9 ATS and are now 13-19 on the season. More importantly, the public went 9-7; however Vegas hit on their most important sides, getting covers in Arizona and the LA Rams. In case you missed it, the books are big fans of Rams HC Sean McVay.

Things have shifted slightly this week as we have only four home underdogs, where we had fourteen over the first two weeks. And home dogs are 7-7 ATS in those matchups to date.

So, let’s get moving and find some winners.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 3-1 (last week 3-1)

NFL BETS WEEK 3

CAROLINA PANTHERS +5.5 at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Many bettors will run to the window on Sunday to place action on Seattle. The Seahawks went into Detroit in Week 2 and won a game in OT to improve to 1-1. The public betting loved seeing that happen as they scored 37 points in that game. Their opponent, the Carolina Panthers were on MNF and looked utterly flat in their loss to New Orleans. So it’s a case of recency bias that will indeed have the books flooded with seabird bets.

Can the Panthers bite harder with Andy Dalton now at QB?

However, QB Bryce Young has been ruled out for this contest, and in comes Andy Dalton. That should play in the favor of the Panthers, as their biggest issue so far has been the QB play. The Panthers rank dead last in passing yards with just 299 over the first two games. And they are 28th in completion percentage at 59.2%. Dalton played well last season, having a 92.5 QBR with a 2-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio.

The Seahawks have a solid passing attack, but that plays into a Panthers team with the 5th best-passing defense, according to DVOA. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers, with their new QB, should be able to move the ball against Seattle as they own the 22nd-ranked defense, according to DVOA. A weak defense, combined with Carolina’s ability to play solid pass D, should allow the Panthers to hang close enough to cover this number, and even pull out a win.

CLEVELAND BROWNS -3.5 vs TENNESSEE TITANS

The Browns have found a place in this article for the 3rd consecutive week. And that could be good or bad news, depending on what team you cheer for. To date, I’m 2-0 in Browns games, and feel like there’s an edge in this week’s contest too. The Browns saw DeShaun Watson fumble away the game last Monday Night in Pittsburgh. But the public also saw Nick Chubb go down to a scary injury, and now they have completely turned their backs on the city by the lake.

However, this wasn’t going to be a Nick Chubb game anyway. The Titans are the #2 ranked rushing defense, according to DVOA. And they led the league in rushing defense last year. This was always going to be about DeShaun Watson and the Browns WRs. And with Watson struggling on MNF in Week 2, he will have added motivation to show he is worth the money that Cleveland invested in him.

Additionally, Cleveland has the #2 ranked defense, according to DVOA. The Titans have significant issues on the offensive line, as PFF ranks that unit as 28th in the league heading into Week 3. While only having four sacks this season, the Browns have the 3rd ranked pass-rushing unit as rated by PFF. The advantage in the trenches and the passing game is significant. The Titans, while 2-0 ATS, could easily be 0-2. Another Chargers late-game collapse masked their struggles, and they will be unable to hide this week against Myles Garrett and company.

DENVER BRONCOS +6.5 vs MIAMI DOLPHINS

I’m definitely on an island here, and I’m OK with it. The Broncos are 0-2 and 0-2 ATS, while the Dolphins are the exact reverse. To add to the opposite effects of these two teams, Denver has played two home games, and Miami has played two road games. It’s an exciting matchup seeing two teams with opposite results and paths taking the field today in Miami.

Broncos are looking for their first win this weekend in Miami. But they’ll need their defense to rise up to pull off the upset.

But here’s the thing: the public is hammering the Dolphins and it is for good reason. Miami passes the eye test, and casual bettors love good offenses. So far, we’ve seen almost 80% of bets and 75% of the money pouring in on Miami. And yet, the oddsmakers haven’t pushed this to the key number of 7. Something seems very odd about this one, and when it smells, trust Vegas.

As for the game, the offense in Denver hasn’t been the issue like in 2022. But now the defense can’t stop anyone. They made a splash in FA with DE Frank Clark and DL Zach Allen. But the Broncos have just four sacks this season, which ties them for 23rd in the NFL. This week, that will have to change if they want to get in the win column.

On offense, Denver has an advantage against the Dolphins D as their pass and run block rates are in the league’s top half. In the end, Denver is desperate and will play inspired football. They will play their best game of the season this week in Florida. Also, Miami was 1-2 ATS in 2022 at home following a road trip of 2+ games or more. And in two of those game, they lost outright (Minnesota and Green Bay).

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -4 at TAMPA BAY BUCS (MNF)

The Eagles have been on National TV in the first two weeks of the season. And public bettors do not believe what they see despite their 2-0 and 1-0-1 record ATS, which is precisely where the Eagles want to be. They have yet to play a complete game and have 10 days of rest to figure it out.

As for the Bucs, they are one of the more surprising teams in the NFL to date. They’ve won a challenging game in Minnesota, then took care of the hapless Bears at home. Both defenses rank in the bottom 1/3rd of the league. But this week, they take a step up in competition and face an Eagles team that led the league in sacks last season with 70. And while Tampa has allowed just one sack this season, they’ve faced two teams that don’t have the defensive line strength like the Eagles possess.

There are mismatches at both lines of scrimmage, and the Eagles have the better-skilled position players. They’re comfortable in the spotlight and have the added rest days, all hidden advantages that will factor into this game.

SURVIVOR PICK

DALLAS COWBOYS

The Cowboys look like the best team in the NFL after the first two weeks of the season. And their reward in Week 3 is to play the worst team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals. There’s only a little to assess here as Dallas should keep it rolling this week in the desert. What I saw from Arizona last week was a team that is content to play tight but even more happy to lose and stay in the lead for the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. Dallas will help them keep that lead this week.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

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