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NFL DFS

LIVE NFL DFS Lineup Q & A for Nov. 5

DFSGhost & StixPicks 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost & StixPicks

Fantasy Football DFS experts Ghost and Stix break down the best NFL DFS Picks for Sunday’s Main Slate for DraftKings and FanDuel. The guys will preview all the Week 9 games, making DFS picks as well as going over some player props and bets.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Eight

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We brought out the brooms last week and finished with a pristine 4-0 record as well as a Survivor win. Not all weeks are built the same but staying consistent and driving in our lane paid off. As for the public, they finally saw a bad week going 3-10 ATS. And normally, when the public loses, that means favorites do as well as they finished 5-8 ATS in Week 8. So, the scales are tipping and it’ll be important for us to still find the right mix of betting spots to attack.

We have a full slate of games this week as no NFL teams are on a bye.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 18-10 (last week 4-0)

NFL BETS WEEK 8

GREEN BAY PACKERS +1.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Packers and Vikings are headed in opposite directions. Since Justin Jefferson’s injury, the Vikings have won two straight games. And in those outings they’ve scored just 41 points but their defense has settled in and allowed just 30 (averaged allowed 24.5 ppg in first 5 weeks). As for Green Bay, they are coming into this contest losers of three straight games and are averaging just 16.6 ppg in that span.

But, streaks are meant to be broken and I like the Packers to come away with a win today, First, the biggest difference in this contest is the Packers O-Line versus the Vikings D-Line. According to PFF, the Packers have the following advantages:

Packers O-Line Pass Block (7th) vs Vikings D-Line Pass Rush (31st)
Packers O-Line Sacks Allowed 10 (2nd lowest) vs Vikings D-Line Sacks 19 (14th best)

The other thing I’m factoring is this, the last five teams that beat San Fran, and played the following week (i.e. no bye), went 0-5 ATS in their next game. And that includes a 1-4 straight up record with the only win being last week’s Browns (controversial win at that).

LA CHARGERS -8 vs CHICAGO BEARS

The end of the Brandon Staley is near. Another promising season is once again being wasted away with curious call after curious call. The Chargers are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball yet they sit at 2-4 and 3.5 games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West.

But here’s why I like the Chargers in this spot. In the last 3 seasons, the Chargers are 7-5 ATS when favored by 6 points or more. On the other side, Chicago is 2-5 ATS the last 2 seasons when an underdog of 7 points or more. More importantly, they are 0-4 ATS the week following a straight up win.

From a football standpoint, both defenses are bad and rank 29th (CHI) and 28th (LAC) respectively in DVOA. But the difference is on offense where the Bears are ranked 25th in DVOA and the Chargers are 8th. In order to cover a big spread like this, there needs to be a team that can score and has a top offense. We have that in this case and the last point is, I’m not putting money on Tyler Bagent on the road.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -5 vs CINCINNATI BENGALS

The 49ers are coming back west after losing two consecutive games to mediocre teams. But home is where the heart is, and I expect the 49ers to get their mojo back in a big way today. San Francisco is 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year with their average score being 36-13 (outscored their opponents 107-38). As for Cincy, outside of their road win at Arizona, they laid two duds away from home losing to the Browns 24-3 and Titans 27-3.

The Bengals are coming off a bye, but there’s still something amiss with their offense which ranks 23rd in DVOA. They’ve scored more than 20 points just twice this season. The 49ers are going to feast against a below average O-Line today and give Burrow little time to throw.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5 vs HOUSTON TEXANS

The Panthers have allowed 42 points in consecutive games. So the bye week was needed in order to hit the reset button and figure out their deficiencies. This unit was a strength last season but has now become one of the worst units in football as shown with the 32nd ranked rush defense. But fortunately for Carolina, in comes a Houston rushing offense that is ranked 30th in DVOA. So weakness meets weakness here which could ultimately decide the difference.

As we know, this is a battle between the top two QBs selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. And CJ Stroud has the upper hand so far but a win today could sway things for Bryce Young. As for the Texans, they are 1-2 ATS and 1-2 SU on the road this season with their one win coming in Week 3 against the Jags.

Lastly, while I don’t consider him a good head coach, Frank Reich is 4-0 ATS after a bye week. The Panthers are going to bite eventually, and they have some motivation this week to do so. Give me Carolina as this number has risen past a key number. This is a pass for me at three points or less.

SURVIVOR PICK BALTIMORE RAVENS

Lamar Jackson is 17-1 against NFC opponents in his career. Good enough for me to take a road team today.

If you don’t have Baltimore, my other recommendations are:

LA Chargers
Detroit Lions
Dallas Cowboys

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 8

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had a solid output in Week 7 as we hit on six of the top ten RB’s. Highly owned RB’s such as Kenneth Walker, Isiah Pacheco, and Jerome Ford paid off in a big way. But a low ownership play such as James Cook provided to pay dividends as well. Overall, I’ll hand out a B+ as the winning lineups in most GPP’s had both our primary RB’ (Gibbs and Ford). And six out of ten ain’t bad!

As we roll into Week 8, we’re back to a full slate as there are no byes this weekend. Therefore, we have 13 games on the main card meaning lots of options to choose from. After last night’s DraftCast, it’s clear to me there are good options across each of our tiers. While I don’t necessarily recommend spending up for RB’s, there are a few cases this week that make sense. But if you choose that route, you’ll have to pair those with a cheaper option on the board.

Please check out Stix’s weekly projections when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also, remember to check out the NFL Pre-Lock Show on Sunday at 11 am on YouTube.

I highlight my favorite ten RBs each week and break them into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY $9200 DraftKings $8300 FanDuel

Three words for you this week: Brock Purdy Concussion. If you thought Kyle Shannahan was conservative in his passing game with a healthy Brock Purdy, wait until you see his gameplan this week. Purdy had only two games in 2022 where he was asked to throw more than 30 attempts. There’s just no way, especially coming off two consecutive losses and a concussion, that the 49ers HC will implement a pass happy gameplan this week. Then there’s other small factors such as Deebo Samuel missing another game (already ruled out) and the Bengals run defense being their weakness.

And about that Bengals D, they are ranked 27th in rushing defense DVOA. According to PFF, Cincy has the 4th worst rated run defense using their advanced metrics. They are allowing the 8th most rushing yards per game to RB’s at 100.5/game. As long as he checks out healthy, this is a smash spot for league’s most productive RB.

SAQUON BARKLEY $8000 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Another week and another good matchup for Saquon Barkley. The biggest issue for this spot is the game environment and pace as the Jets and Giants have the lowest total on the board at 36.5.

But what intrigues me here is the Jets have allowed the second most receptions to RB’s in the NFL. Per game, they are allowing an average of 6.8 receptions to backs. And Saquon has been an effective pass receiver reeling in 4 catches per week. Including one last week that went to the house. We are projecting 20+ touches once again for Barkley and considering he could see 5 or more targets makes him very valuable. Also, the Giants RB leads the NFL in snaps at 81% per game. This is a DraftKings only play based on that approach.

ALVIN KAMARA $7300 DraftKings $7500 FanDuel

The Saints offense may stink. But Alvin Kamara is a fantasy wonder since his return from suspension. He’s averaging 21.7 DK points per game as seen no less than 24 touches in the last four games. He’s catching at an elite pace too with an absurd 8.8 catches per game which has propelled him to the leading RB in touches per game.

And he gets a smash spot this week by facing the Colts. Indy allows the 3rd most points per game in the NFL at 30.1. They also allow the 4th most fantasy points to RBs largely in part because they’ve allowed 10 rushing TDs, 2nd highest in the league. Taking it one step further, they are ranked 18th in rushing defense DVOA. Add it all up, and you have Kamara in pole position this week in the return on value market for RBs.

TRAVIS ETIENNE $7200 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

Travis Etienne has the 3rd highest snap count (79.9%) for RBs and the third highest touches per game (21.6). He’s a workhorse for a Jacksonville offense that has finally found it’s footing. Since scoring just 26 points combined in Week’s 2 & 3, the Jags have averaged 29 points/game over their past four contests. This week they face the Steelers who are allowed the 13th most points in the league (21.1) and fourth most rushing yards (142.3).

Pittsburgh is allowing almost 5 yards per carry but they one area in where they’ve played good run D is in the passing game. To date, they’ve allowed the fewest catches to RBs with only 18 surrendered. But regardless of that last stat, the Jags have an implied team total of 21.5 points and will feature Etienne of ~80% of their snaps. Combine that with a defense that does allow chunk plays on the ground and we have a good reason to deploy Etienne this weekend in the Steel City.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

D’ANDRE SWIFT $6300 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel

The Eagles faced the Commanders once this year already. And they escaped that game with an OT victory. Point is, the Eagles will have full attention to this game as they’ve already been pushed to the brink once by Washington. And with the 2nd overall run block unit, according to PFF, they will look to exploit their advantage at the line of scrimmage. While Washington is ranked 15th in rush defense DVOA, they have allowed 100+ yards rushing in 6 straight games. And the only game they didn’t allow 100 yards rushing this season was in Week 1 against Arizona, where they allowed 96.

Swift had success against Washington in Week 4 where he scored 17.6 fantasy points. He caught four balls in that game which is on par to what the Commanders average per week. Add that to his average of 16 carries per game over the past six weeks and we have potential for 20+ touches. Good enough for me at a reasonable price for a high upside RB.

JONATHAN TAYLOR $6200 DraftKings $6200 FanDuel

He’s back! It took a few weeks but Taylor eclipsed Moss in touches and snaps last week for the first time this season. We’re getting a Tier 1 RB for the price of a low Tier 2 back. That is just too good to match up regardless of the matchup. But speaking of matchup, the Saints have the 14th best rushing defense according to DVOA. Even more interesting, according to DVOA, they haven’t faced a rushing attack inside the top 14 in the league. In fact, they’ve faced four of the seven worst rushing attacks in the league. The Colts have the best rushing offense the Saints have played to date, ranking 6th in DVOA. For those reasons, and the projection Taylor will see an even bigger role, this is one of my favorite spots on the slate.

ISIAH PACHECO $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

Denver is either last or next to last in almost all rushing defense metrics. They allow the most points to fantasy RBs and the most rushing yards per game, at 167.3. The question this week will be the weather as temperatures are supposed to be below 30 degrees by kickoff. And there could be 6-8 inches of snow. Crazy to think as we sit here with 80 degree weather on the East Coast.

But the snow doesn’t concern me as Pacheco will be able to hit holes and gain his yards on the ground. The issue will be his role in the receiving game which be reduced due to weather. But he’s still in play for me, but I may bring down my exposure by a few lineups because of the snow.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

BIJAN ROBINSON $6000 DraftKings $7300 FanDuel

Coach Arthur Smith is a joke. But he somehow won the game last week while giving his 1st round pick just one carry. You can play the narrative that he was sick all you want but I question why he was dressed and on the sidelines. Can’t eat your soup and drink your ginger ale while suited up.

But I think we’re in for a big bounce back this week. Bijan’s salary has dropped by 20% and owners are going to be leery of playing this game again after last weeks’ disappointment. And he’s facing Tennessee who has a top 10 rushing defense. All signs point to low ownership which means this is a good spot to get different with one of the best runners in the league.

BREECE HALL DraftKings $5900 FanDuel $6600

This will be a very popular play this week. But if the Jets are serious about winning, they will ensure Breece Hall sees plenty of touches. That’s because the Giants are 30th in rushing defense DVOA. And they’ve allowed the 2nd most rushing yards this season at 857. Hall has taken the lead role at RB, averaging 60% of the snaps and 75% of the touches the past two weeks.

KAREEM HUNT DraftKings $5200 FanDuel $6600

Kareem Hunt is primed to see a lion’s share of the touches this week for Cleveland as they travel to Seattle. The Seahawks have been solid against the run, but that’s primarily due to their pass defense being one of the worst in the league. Meanwhile, Hunt has averaged 15.6 fantasy points over the last two weeks and that’s on just an average of 12 touches per game. Assuming we see 15+ touches, Hunt has a chance for 4-5x value this week.

RB PROP BETS

TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 8

Joe DiCarlo 2 years ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Already we are almost halfway into the season and for DFS we’ve been on point. In Week Seven we emphasized paying up for Mahomes and Kelce, destroying the competition while using the best at their positions with low ownership. The byes will take the week off, making this breakdown at full capacity of match-ups to dissect. The more games the merrier, especially for cash games and crossing that pay line.

Stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Week Eight will be a hearty meal of 13 games so I hope you brought your appetite, let’s cut right into this steak for DFS!

Sunday Main Slate 10/29/23

Eagles @ Commanders (+6.5) (O/U 41.5)

Locks: Jalen Hurts

The safest and best quarterback of the slate lies here in this matchup with Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel). It’s also a great game to stack with AJ Brown ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) who has owned a 40% target share, destroying every coverage in the playbook, and is severely underpriced on DraftKings. Washington has allowed 14 passing touchdowns so far this season.

I wouldn’t mind sprinkling in some D’Andre Swift ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) either, a back who rarely leaves the playing field and provides a high floor of 16 FPTS/game. He’ll also be a contrarian play for Hurts and AJ Brown, expect some low ownership on Swift.

If you’re looking to run someone back on Washington, it will be no other than the Eagles killer “scary” Terry McLaurin ($5300 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel). His ability to beat any coverage Phila throws at him with the unforeseen negative Commanders’ gamescript makes him very desirable at his mid-range price tag. The Eagles also struggle to cover opposing tight ends in their man coverage (32nd DVOA), so get Logan Thomas ($3,400 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) in a build if you want to attack this matchup.

@ps2ownsyou
Terry McLaurin (Also known as Scary Terry) #fyp
♬ Pearls – Sade

Patriots @ Dolphins (-9) (O/U 47)

Locks: Tyreek Hill

We all know by now what Miami will be up to for offense, get the ball to Tyreek Hill ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel), who Bill Belichick may have something up his sleeve for coverage. I wouldn’t bet on it, but if it does pan out that way for Hill, Jaylen Waddle ($7,500 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) may see a bigger role on Sunday.

Vegas has the Patriots as big underdogs, so expect the passing volume to be heavy for New England. Kendrick Bourne ($4,700 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) has been the cream that has risen to the top for the Pats at receiver with 34 receptions and three touchdowns. Keep an eye on JuJu Smith-Schuster’s injury status too, because the rookie Demario Douglas ($3,300 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) has a chance to shine finally. A slick, cheap receiver play this week, even if JuJu decides to suit up.

Keep in mind this is a divisional game as well, so you should see some better defense against Miami. The Pats DST ($2,000 DraftKings/$3,100 FanDuel) is at the minimum price, making it possible to take on more elites in your lineups.

Jets @ Giants (+2.5) (O/U 36.5)

The MetLife Bowl welcomes both its teams in for a Week Eight battle for bragging rights, and the losers walk home on the New Jersey Turnpike. Anything can happen in this matchup between two struggling offenses, but the edge goes to the Jets ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) and their top-ten defense. It won’t be a high-scoring game, but it will be interesting. Big Blue will roll out with Tyrod Taylor ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) for a third straight week, as Daniel Jones is still not ready to come back… no rush Danny, take your time. Taylor’s veteran skill set and decision-making have breathed new life into the Giants’ weapons such as Darren Waller ($5,200 DraftKings/6,400 FanDuel) (12 REC/141YDS/1TD) and Saquon Barkley ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) (170 RuYDS/7REC) in only two games.

Gang Green on the other hand has been playing with house money, fresh off a bye and win off the Phila Eagles. The G-Men will have no answer for Garrett Wilson ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) in their incapable secondary and Breece Hall ($5,900 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) when he gets the carries (Giants 27th in DVOA to the run). I like them both for cash, especially Breece, who is still under $6K on DraftKings and ridiculously cheap.

Rams @ Cowboys (-6.5) (O/U 45)

Locks: Cooper Kupp (GPP)

We should have a fantasy rodeo down in Texas as the Rams visit the Cowboys, gotta love the dome games. The price of poker has gone up on the superstars in this match-up, making them a hit or miss in a GPP format. The field may not want to pay up for quarterbacks like Stafford ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) and Dak Prescott ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) either this week, as they have become a little too pricey (Stafford is expensive on DraftKings, Dak on FanDuel).

It’s no secret, that Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) and Puca Nacua ($7,900 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) own the entire Rams’ target share (30%/28%). Get them in your lineups if you are looking to be different.

In Dallas, it’s obvious to go with CeeDee Lamb ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) and Tony Pollard ($7,500 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) but check out Michael Gallup ($3,400 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) and Jake Ferguson ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel). Their snap share was through the roof (70%,86%) in week six and Gallup even saw 10 targets. There are great spots for both to recover fantasy value in a positive matchup.

@nfl
he’s backkkkkk @Dallas Cowboys #dallas #cowboys #michaelgallup
♬ Storytelling – Adriel

Jaguars @ Steelers (+2.5) (U/O 42)

This game appears to be a defensive battle on paper as both teams stop the run pretty well, especially with Pittsburgh possibly getting Cam Heyward back. So far there seems to be very little ownership flocking into either team, making Trevor Lawrence ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) a sneaky GPP quarterback. Travis Etienne has been getting all the work he can handle lately, he leads the NFL in carries (127) and adding seven total touchdowns. But again, it’s a tough matchup, keep him away from cash for this week.

Look for Calvin Ridley ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) and Evan Engram ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) to reemerge for DFS out of Pittsburgh’s man coverage, and plug away in tournaments. Kenny Pickett will be facing a pass-funnel-style defense against Jacksonville. So fade the Steelers’ backs and it’s thumbs up to George Pickens ($5,600 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel), who should feast against the rookie corner Montaric Brown filling in for Tyson Campbell.

Vikings @ Packers (+1) (O/U 43.5)

This contest, in a nutshell, looks like it could get ugly, especially with some wet weather on the horizon in Wisconsin. So in turn, we may see both teams running the ball more often, but let’s pump the brakes for a second on both backfields.

The Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon experience have been far from breathtaking, racking up numerous single-digit fantasy performances. However, on the other side for Minnesota, Alexander Mattison ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) and Cam Akers ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) are golden against the Green Bay Packers 30th in DVOA run defense which has allowed 143 yards per game on the season. They split the backfield for the Vikings, so take your shot, and hope for the best.

And if you’re looking to chase points from Monday night in Jordan Addison ($5,700 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) go for it while his price is still a bargain. The Vikings’ undoubted number-one receiver under $6K on DraftKings is criminal.

Texans @ Panthers (+3) (O/U 43.5)

Looking for some exposure to your high-priced studs across the slate? Well look no further, the Texans offer a stack off the value menu featuring C.J. Stroud ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel), Tank Dell ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel), and Nico Collins ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel), who is a lock for cash games with Robert Woods ruled out. Carolina’s defense has been like shooting fish in a barrel all season, they allow the most points per game on average (30). I wouldn’t mind getting a little fancy either by picking up Devin Singletary ($4,400 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) or Dameon Pierce ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) if you want to dumpster dive at running back. The Panthers rank almost dead last in DVOA (31st) against the run.

*** I love a C.J. Stroud who may be playing with a chip on his shoulder against the team that snubbed him for Bryce Young at No.1 overall in this year’s draft.***

Well as for the 0-7 Panthers, it’s slim pickings as usual. Chuba Hubbard was fantastic back in Week Six but with a healthy Miles Sanders, we don’t have a clear path against Houston’s terrible run defense that allows well over 100 yards per game. The Panthers have been all Adam Thielen ($6,600 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) this year, who has found the fountain of youth in Carolina. But the price has sky-rocketed from his production. I’d rather take a shot on a punt at tight end of Hayden Hurst ($2,900 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel), who could see plenty of check-downs from Bryce Young facing a Texans’ zone defense.

@thewashedathlete
Nico Collins MOSSED the DB 🔥 #nfl #texans #houstontexans #fyp #fypシ #foryou
♬ original sound – The Washed Athlete

Falcons @ Titans (+2.5) (O/U 36.5)

Gross… just a gross all-around game. The run-heavy Atlanta offense will be forced to throw against the number-one-ranked rushing defense in Tennessee. Meanwhile, the Titans will be experimenting at quarterback between Malik Willis and the rookie Will Levis, hence the extremely low total. Mistakes will be made on both ends of the field, so both defenses (Atlanta DST-$2,900 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) (Tennessee-$3,100 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) are in play, as well as all the Falcons’ pass-catchers of a concentrated receiving core of Kyle Pitts ($3,800 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel), Drake London ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel), and Jonnu Smith ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel).

Check out Bijan Robinson’s ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) price after his headache forced him out of Week Seven, it hit rock bottom. I’d have no problem sliding him into a tournament this week since the field will abandon the rookie bellcow. When the Titans spread out the coverage, Robinson will be in line for his usual check-downs from Desmond Ridder.

@wahlxa
Hollywood brown#hollywood #marquisebrown #cardinals #nfl #blowthisup
♬ original sound – him

Saints @ Colts (-1.5) (O/U 43.5)

Ahh, we love picking on the Colts, don’t we? Chris Olave ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) recently got pulled over for speeding this week and he’ll be burning rubber again this Sunday, except it will be the Colts’ outside cornerbacks (60 receptions given up this season). Hopefully, Derek Carr ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) can get him the football, otherwise, he’ll be check-down Charlie once again to Alvin Kamara ($7,300 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel). The Saints running back may need a new pair of gloves soon after catching 35 receptions in only four games. All three are viable in GPPs as the ownership seems to be off of this game.

The Colts have been behind the eightball all year because of their defense, which is keeping Gardner Minshew’s arm pretty busy in negative gamescripts. Michael Pittman ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) is the alpha, but the rookie Josh Downs ($4,800 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) has become a favorite target for Minshew, as he’s scored heavily for fantasy, especially his last performance (5REC/125YDS/1TD). Take the discount and roster Downs over Pittman until we see the ball direction change.

In the running back room, Jonathon Taylor ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) is beginning to pull away from Zack Moss. Although they both had 50% of the snaps, Taylor was the one who benefited with 21 fantasy points. New Orleans will bring the pressure onto the Colts’ passing attack, look for Taylor to see plenty of check-down passes in the flat against a tough Saints’ run defense.

@realjordanschultz
Is Jonathan Taylor RB1 when healthy?! 👀🔥 #jonathantaylor #indianapoliscolts #colts #nfl #sports #football
♬ Coconut Mall (From “Mario Kart Wii”) – Arcade Player

Browns @ Seahawks (-3) (U/O 39.5)

The former XFL superstar PJ Walker will start one more time for Deshaun Watson of the Browns, who just can’t catch a break with their $230 million-dollar man. I have zero interest in any part of this contest, due to the fact of how well the Browns can play defense at times, and if in fact, Walker can move the ball down the field. Give me both Cleveland’s ($3,000 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) and Seattle’s ($3,400 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) defenses instead here.

Seattle should be getting DK Metcalf ($6,800 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) back this week, so fire him up. This news brings the rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba back to earth, so let’s not chase points in this spot unless Tyler Lockett is ruled out on Sunday.

Chiefs @ Broncos (+8) (U/O 46)

Locks: Pat Mahomes; Travis Kelce

Finally, a game with potential on the slate. You have to appreciate the AFC West divisional games as we all know what to expect…chunks of yards through the air and touchdowns. It’s already Week Eight and the Broncos still can’t stop the bleeding on defense, paving the way for Mahomes ($8,400 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel), Travis Kelce ($8,400 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel), and Rashee Rice ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,000FanDuel), who has emerged as the Chiefs receiver-one. Running back Isaiah Pacheco has carved a role in the offense and is a set-and-forget play this week facing the wasteland 32nd DVOA against the run.

The Broncos may be looking to unload their roster walking as we approach the trade deadline, but their one diamond in the rough has been Courtland Sutton ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel). In six of seven contests, he’s scored double-digit fantasy points along with five touchdowns. Still affordable in DFS too, and a nice run-back option if you decide to stack the Chiefs.

Ravens @ Cardinals (+8) (U/O 44)

Locks: Lamar Jackson

Double down on Lamar ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) and the Ravens out in the desert this weekend, as he’ll look to build off his 33 fantasy point outing in Week Seven. Arizona has been the place to get back on the right track for opposing offenses this season, failing to stop every position in football (27th against the pass, 29th against the run). Mark Andrews ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel), Zay Flowers ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel), and Gus Edwards ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) all make the cut for DFS in Week Eight.

If we have to pick any of the Cardinals, it’ll be Marquise Brown ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel). Since Week One he’s been the unmistaken WR1, racking up 32 catches for 342 yards and three touchdowns. He may be playing with a chip on his shoulder, with some incentive to make a big game statement in front of his former teammates in Baltimore.

Bengals @ Niners (-5.5) (U/O 45)

Locks: Ja’Maar Chase; Christian McCaffrey

The big news in the Bay Area was when Niners quarterback Brock Purdy popped up in concussion protocol in the middle of the week, yet he is still practicing. With no confirmation as of Friday, we may have Sam Darnold starting for all we know. This wouldn’t change anything for Christian McCaffrey’s ($9,200 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) role, who would see pass after pass in the backfield. As for the rest of the offense, we’ll have to wait and see who is starting before taking shots on Brandon Aiyuk.

The Bengals off of a bye week could be rolling out the red carpet for Tee Higgins ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) to become part of the offense once again. If San Fransisco rolls out into their norm of cover two, Higgins will devour that secondary of Lenoir and Oliver with his superior size. Perhaps Cincinnati also worked on protecting Joe Burrow ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) a little better during their week off, at his salary he should be heavily owned and a paydown option for cash games at quarterback.

@kxngmo2
Bro is the best head topper🤫 #fyp #nfl #viral #nflfootball #teehiggins #kxngmo2 #trending
♬ original sound – Kendrick

Cash Core

Hurts
Pacheco
Collins
AJ Brown

GPP Core

Kupp/Nacua
Carr
Bijon Robinson
Olave

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 8. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass and get your first 7 days free here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 7

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had a huge NFL Week 6 here at the Running Back Report Card. We nailed the top three scoring RBs last week in Raheem Mostert, Kyren Williams, and Travis Etienne. And each of those players was $7100 or less. Taking it a step further, we ended up hitting on 6 of the top 9 scoring RBs and avoided some of the bigger salary flops such as McCaffrey and Bijan. So we’ll give out our first A+ grade of the year and look to carry that into Week 7 here at WinDaily. As for Week 7, this looks to be a week in which I’ll pay up for an RB1. We’ve been living in Tier 2 and 3 the past few weeks, and while there’s still good value there, I do like the potential of Tier 1 this week.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

SAQUON BARKLEY $8100 DraftKings $8300 FanDuel

We saw Barkley return to action last week and the Giants didn’t waste any time ensuring he got the ball. The former Penn State RB saw 28 touches against the Bills and turned that into 100 total yards. While he didn’t get in the endzone, the volume is what makes attracts us to Barkley this week. Simply put, the Giants are in must-win mode. They are 1-5 and have the worst point differential in the NFL at -96. Today they get a division rival, in the Commanders. If they lose this one, the season is all but over before Halloween even hits the calendar.

And seeing the Commanders is a good thing for Barkley as he averages 5.8 ypc against Washington in his career. Add to that he also puts up 130 yards per game from scrimmage against the team from our Nation’s Capital and we have a high volume situation with great past performance.

JOSH JACOBS $7400 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Josh Jacobs is 4th in the league in snap percentage (78.3%) and 3rd in the league in touches (132). But the issue has been what he’s done with the touches as Jacobs is averaging just 2.91 ypc. And he’s too good of an RB for that to continue. Which leads us to today’s matchup where he gets to face the Bears who are 17th in rushing defense DVOA. The other good news is the Bears are allowing the 4th most fantasy points to RBs. Then look at the potential game script today as QB Aidan O’Connell will get his first career NFL start. It would make a lot of sense to feed Jacobs early and often to simplify and protect their rookie QB.

BIJAN ROBINSON $7300 DraftKings $7500 FanDuel

Bijan Robinson has scored double digit fantasy points in every game this season. And since Week 1, he’s averaged 75% of the snaps for the Falcons. The issue lately, is the Falcons have trailed early and turned to their passing game thus decreasing Bijan’s carries. However, that should change this week as the Falcons visit the Bucs. That’s because this game has one of the lowest totals on the board at 37.5. Keeping a slower game script should allow Atlanta to commit to the run. And while Tampa is 10th in rushing defense DVOA, they have allowed several big running games including 201 yards to the Eagles.

Last point to consider is that Bijan averages 4+ catches per week. The Bucs allow 6 catches per game to RBs, including a game where they allowed 11 to Alvin Kamara.

KENNETH WALKER III $7000 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

The Arizona Cardinals are quickly turning into the 2022 Houston Texans for us RB focused DFS players. That’s because Arizona is bleeding points to RB’s, allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to backs on the season. The Cardinals are ranked 29th in rushing defense DVOA and have allowed 8 rushing TD’s, which is 4th most in the league. This is an underpricing on DraftKings and a much better play in DFS games there.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

AARON JONES $6800 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel

Even though he carries a questionable tag, news out of Green Bay is that Aaron Jones will suit up today. And if he does, he’s in the biggest smash spot on the slate. That’s because he gets to face the Broncos who have the worst rushing defense in the league allowing 172 yards per game on the ground. They are ranked last in rushing defense DVOA and have the highest yards per carry in the league at 5.6. This is a great spot for the Packers RB to put up a big game in the Mile High City.

JAMES COOK $6400 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Outside of a dud game against the Jags, Cook has been a steady performer for the Bills. And today, he gets to face a team he’s had success against in the New England Patriots. Last season, he played 2 games against the Pats and racked up 156 yards from scrimmage including 8 catches. And we all know the struggles the Patriots have had this season, sitting at 1-5 and on the verge of making a complete roster turnover. But buried in all their bad play, is also a run defense that can be exposed as they’ve allowed the 12th most fantasy points to opposing RBs.

JAHMYR GIBBS $6300 DraftKings $6200 FanDuel

WinDaily projection model has Gibbs as the 3rd highest value on the board today. And who am I to argue with a model that consistently pushes out winners. With David Montgomery out of action, the backfield is Craig Reynolds and Jahmyr Gibbs. They will likely get a even share of snaps, but Gibbs will see more touches as he’s the bigger threat in the passing game. And that’s exactly where we’ll get the value in the Lions RB since the Ravens have one of the better run defenses in the league. The other added benefit with Montgomery being out is the Gibbs will likely assume goal line duties making his TD equity much higher than week’s past.

ISIAH PACHECO $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

The Pacheco train keeps rolling as he has another quality matchup today against the Chargers. The Chiefs RB has received at least 15 carries in each of the last 4 games. He’s also a threat in the passing game with an average of 3 catches per game out of the backfield. And that will be important as the Chargers allow the most passing yards per game in the NFL. This is a smash spot for the Rutgers RB.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

BRIAN ROBINSON $5800 DraftKings $7300 FanDuel

The Giants run defense is ranked 30th in DVOA. They’ve also allowed the 2nd most rushing yards on the season. This isn’t something that can be fixed with scheme as the Giants have issues on the DL and with their LBs. Meaning this will continue to be an issue all season long, like it was for them in 2022 as well. As for Robinson, he’s scored a TD in all three of his road games so far and is averaging 18.8 DK points away from home.

JEROME FORD DraftKings $5100 FanDuel $6600

The Browns activated Deon Jackson from the practice squad thus alerting fantasy owners that they are concerned with Kareem Hunt’s thigh injury. Even if Hunt is given the green light to play, Ford will be the starting RB and receive the majority of the snaps and touches. That’s great news for Ford as he’s facing an Indy defense that allows 25 points per game and is giving up the 11th most fantasy points to RBs.

RB PROP BETS

JAHMYR GIBBS ANYTIME TD (+110 DK)

Gibbs has yet to score a TD in the NFL. But with the goal line vulture unable to play today, look for Detroit to turn to Gibbs to get meaningful carries in the redzone and finally punch one in.

AARON JONES over 54.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110 DK)

Obviously the risk here is the status and health of Jones’ hamstring. Coming into Week 7, the Packers have the 11th best offensive line according to Pro Football Focus. So all we need is health and this O-Line should easily pave the way for Jones to blow past this mark against the worst run defense in the NFL.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Seven

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We ended up with a split last week but missed another winning week by 0.5 points as the Seahawks gave a game away against Cincy. The Sea Birds had four possessions inside the 20 in the 4th quarter and mustered only three points. But those are the breaks and we’ll look to bounce back in Week 7. There are six teams on bye this week, and with a Thursday game already played, that means we have just 12 games left to choose from.

We saw the books bounce back last week as the public went just 6-9 ATS. Some of the big results for Vegas were the NY Jets (+6), Cleveland (+10) and NY Giants (+14.5). It was the first week we’ve seen multiple double digit dogs cover.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 14-10 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 7

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +3.5 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Browns pulled off the upset of the NFL Season last week as they took down the 49ers to hand San Fran its first loss of the season. Backup QB PJ Walker managed the game well and RB Kareem Hunt produced big plays in the running game. But it was a dominant defensive effort as the Browns held the 49ers to just 215 total yards. The Colts, on the other hand, slept walked through 3 quarters as they fell to their division rivals, the Jacksonville Jaguars, by a count of 37-20.

So we have two teams heading in opposite directions. But yet, I like the home dogs in this one and here’s why. First, the Browns have played just one road game this season and they lost that one to the Steelers. They haven’t played a road game in over a month which is a significant factor to handicap. They’ve also had the distraction of whether QB Deshaun Watson will toughen it up and play this week. His status is still questionable.

Lastly, the Colts are 3-1 outside of playing Jacksonville. They’ve beaten the Ravens, another AFC North team, with Gardner Minshew at QB. Their biggest weakness is their defense, but the Browns biggest weakness is offense. The Browns rank 22nd in Offensive DVOA and 20th in yards per game. The Browns passing game is even worse, ranking 31st in both DVOA and passing yards per game.

This game has a total of 41, one of the lower on the slate, so in a matchup that looks to be even, I’ll take the points and the Colts.

BALTIMORE RAVENS -3 vs DETROIT LIONS

I’ve been good with backing Detroit this season until last week when they won at Tampa. Their defensive prowess was on display as they made Baker Mayfield look like……Baker Mayfield. But this week, they have a much more challenging task trying to contain Lamar Jackson. The Ravens won in London last week against the Titans and spent as little time overseas as possible as they flew in on Friday and left immediately after their win. That doesn’t work for everyone, but it did for John Harbaugh’s team. So unlike week’s past, where I tried to fade a team coming back from Europe, I am actually backing the Ravens because of their unique travel plans.

Add to that, the Lions are on their 2nd straight road game and 3rd in four weeks. They are without their leading rusher as well as some other key components. While the Lions are third overall in total defensive DVOA, the Ravens are second. With the defensive stalemate, and the teams having similar offenses, I look at this game to be a battle of QB’s and coaches. And in both situations, I favor the Ravens. The Lions are very good and will be in the Super Bowl talk all season, but this is a step up in class and one in which Baltimore will be focused to take advantage of.

ATLANTA FALCONS +2.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

No NFL spread this week has moved more than the game between the Falcons and Bucs. Atlanta opened as a small favorite but has now been pushed to a 2.5-point underdog. The optics are bad in Atlanta, as they are coming off two poor performances in which their QB struggled. And since Week 1, they are now 0-5 ATS. Last week’s loss to Washington was a combination of several things, but the main reason was a 0-3 turnover ratio.

The Bucs on the other hand have beaten the Vikings, Bears and Saints. Not necessarily a murder’s row of teams. And the one area in which Atlanta struggles, pass defense, is not particularly the strength of the Bucs. Add to that, the public is hammering Tampa with 65% of the bets and 65% of the money coming in on Bucs. I’ll fade them here as we have the classic case of recency bias with Atlanta struggling and the Bucs sitting at 3-2 and atop the NFC South.

KANSAS CITY -5 vs LA CHARGERS

The Chargers did Chargers things again last Monday night as they threw the game away versus the Dallas Cowboys. With a potential game winning drive, QB Justin Herbert threw a critical interception allowing the Boys to come home with a much needed road victory.

In Mahomes career, he is 7-2 against the Chargers with a 99,9 passer rating. Last season he went 2-0 against LA and threw for 574 yards eith 5 TDs and 0 INT’s. While he owns the Broncos and Raiders, he tends to play his best ball against LA. I just can’t trust Brandon Staley, or Justin Herbert, in a close game against Andy Reid and Mahomes. The Chiefs have not impressed the public bettors of late but are 4-2 ATS this season including 2-1 at home. This is a chance for KC to put a stranglehold on the AFC West Division Title for an 8th straight season. And I expect them to take full advantage of that opportunity.

SURVIVOR PICK SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

At this point, you have probably taken the 49ers and Chiefs. So, we have to look outside the normal NFL powerhouses for our survivor play and we have a good one with Seattle. The Cardinals, after their nice start, have been outscored 95-45 over the past 3 weeks. And the Seahawks won both games by double digits against Arizona last season.

The only other play I feel that has some upside is the Washington Commanders. But I took them in Week 1 against Arizona so they’re off the board for me.

Good luck all and keep the win streak alive!

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Football Premium

NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 7

Joe DiCarlo 2 years ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Week Seven could not get here any faster, our staff has been on fire for the main slates! GPPs should have led you to green screens if you decided to roster the likes of Drake London and Michael Pittman, giving you 20-plus fantasy points and single-digit ownership. Chuba Hubbard was also some healthy chalk to ingest, so let’s keep up our appetite for DFS! With six teams on bye, we’ll get a ten-gamer loaded with some low totals…but regardless of the slate, we’re all here to stay on the right path to cash.

The injury bug was busy in Week Six, as we lost some important pieces in the NFL such as Justin Fields. Jimmy Garoppolo and possibly Daniel Jones are some other well-known household-name quarterbacks that may also miss this weekend, hence dropping totals even lower.

Stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. This Week Seven Breakdown should be interesting, so let’s get right to it!

Sunday Main Slate 10/22/23

Lions @ Ravens (-3) (O/U 42)

Locks: Lamar Jackson; Amon-Ra St. Brown

I love the Lions at 5-1 and the team as a whole this season, but I’m not getting the warm and fuzzies on the road in Baltimore. Jared Goff has been a stud at home but can turn into a pumpkin on the road for his career. Now with him losing David Montgomery and possibly Jahmyr Gibbs and Craig Reynolds at running back, we could see a ton of blitzing by the Ravens. So sign me up for my punt at defense this weekend with the Baltimore DST ($2,500 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel). Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) should have a busy day as well with all the injuries at running back, although if Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) does suit up he’ll be a cash option, especially if Craig Reynolds misses this game with his own hamstring and toe issues.

Lamar Jackson now has two clear weapons on hand in Baltimore, Mark Andrews ($5,7000 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) and the rookie Zay Flowers ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel). The Lions have been the best in the league against the run, allowing only 64 yards per game on the ground. So Jackson will be in a pass-funnel defense, expect Flowers and Andrews especially to profit on Sunday as the Lions are 29th-ranked against tight ends.

Honorable Mention: Sam La Porta

Bills @ Patriots (+9) (O/U 41.5)

Locks: Josh Allen

Whenever I see the Pats on a slate, I immediately look up the opposing defense’s price tag and they’re not cheap anymore. New England is inept at moving the football, with only 1,696 total yards and 31/88 third-down conversions, the Bills DST ($4,200 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) are an option to pay up for. However, Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) finally showed up for fantasy managers last week, catching five passes and landing in the endzone. He’ll see the Bills’ 25th DVOA rushing defense at home, a great pivot at running back for GPPs.

As for the Bills on offense, we all know where to butter our bread for DFS. It’s Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, the duo have combined for 49REC/620YDS/6TDS in just the first six weeks this season. But the Pats do have a formula to take out any team’s number-one receiver defensively, which would make the Bills WR2 Gabe Davis ($5,900 DraftKings/$ 6,700 FanDuel) a sneaky start at receiver this week.

Honorable Mention: Mike Gesicki (if Hunter Henry is out)

Commanders @ Giants (+2) (O/U 39.5)

If you’re looking for value in your lineup, this is the game to target. Sam Howell ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) will draw a dismal Giants’ secondary on the road. Alpha receiver Terry McLaurin ($5,400 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) and especially Sam’s new best friend Curtis Samuel ($4,000 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) are both in great positions to smash their salaries against New York’s sorry excuse for Cover-Three this week. Samuel has scored double-digit fantasy points over the last three weeks. Brian Robinson ($5,800 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) is also in a fantastic spot, New York allows over 140 rushing yards per game and is a bargain under $6K on DraftKings

Saquon Barkley ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) has shown to be on the mend in his last game against Buffalo, seeing 24 carries for 94 yards. The volume will be needed heavily if the Giants want to stay competitive in this divisional game at home, especially considering they are hurting at the quarterback position. Wan’dale Robinson ($3,800 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) is also still pretty inexpensive and has emerged as the Giants’ number-one receiver, seeing 25 targets in four games. Watch the weather too, if it gets windy and wet, both defenses can come into play.

Browns @ Colts (+2) (O/U 39)

This game looks gross not only by the total but the quality of quarterbacks on both sides of the field. Last week Minshew was valuable from a fantasy perspective, but in real football, three picks will not keep you on the field. PJ Walker also reminded us of why he was in the XFL three years ago with his performance of 192YDS/2INTS against the Niners, forcing both the Colts ($3,400 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) and Browns ($3,300 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) defenses into lineups as an option. But if Deshaun Watson decides to play this weekend, hold the phone.

It’s not Watson I’d be interested in, but an affordable Amari Cooper ($6,100 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) against a pitiful Colts’ secondary that has been scorched all season (23rd in DVOA). I’m also in on Jerome Ford ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel), as bad as Indy defends the pass, they’ve been trampled by opposing running backs in the last two weeks (Derrick Henry, Travis Etienne). Ford is a must for GPPs in a game with very low ownership.

@flexxs
imagine if it was td#nfl #football #steelers #browns #viral #fyp
♬ sonido original – Flexxs

Falcons @ Bucs (-2.5) (O/U 38.5)

There’s not much going on here for DFS either down in Tampa, Florida with this nauseating total. Tampa’s ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) and Atlanta’s ($2,800 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) defenses for sure are a play. We saw Amon-Ra of Detroit tear up the middle of the Bucs’ secondary last weekend (12 REC/124YDS/1TD), so if Kyle Pitts ($4,000 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) plays some slot this week we could get another big day out of him, but keep him out of your cash lineups.

The Commanders’ Logan Thomas was a huge let-down against Atlanta last weekend for us, only catching one ball for five stinking yards. The Bucs’ Cade Otton ($2,900 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) draws the same Falcons’ 27th-ranked defense against opposing tight ends, I’m willing to bet lightning doesn’t strike twice and Cade pops off in your GPPs.

Raiders @ Bears (+3) (O/U 37.5)

Locks: Josh Jacobs

Oh boy, here we go again with another doozy… more backup quarterbacks coming out of the woodwork. The undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent and possibly 38-year-old Brian Hoyer will lead their teams out onto Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon, I can’t wait! You have to love both defenses here again in this spot, start them up!

Josh Jacobs ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) will be chalky for another weekend, and DJ Moore ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) being the only weapon left standing in Chi-town will also be popular. But watch out if the squeaky wheel scenario plays out for Vegas’ star wideout Davante Adams ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel). Adams made headlines during the week complaining of his role in the offense and decrease in usage. Bears’ corner Tyrique Stevenson will have his work cut out for him, hope he gets a good night’s sleep as Adams could be targeted heavily on Sunday.

Steelers @ Rams (-3) (O/U 43.5)

Locks: Cooper Kupp

Look no further for your free ticket for cash and GPP builds for Week 7. Zach Evans ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) will be the healthiest chalk on the slate as the Rams are decimated by injuries at the running back position. LA running backs lead the league in snap share (85.9%), which allows Evans to destroy his price for DFS. However, if you believe the Rams will feature even more volume in their passing attack, I will not argue with that. Cooper Kupp ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) and Puca Nacua ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) will be GPP darlings and stack options along with Matt Stafford ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,7000 FanDuel), who’s price tag is on the up and up.

We’ll stand clear of Kenny Pickett and the Steelers for this week. Coming off a bye week with Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth back in the starting lineup, it’s best to play the wait-and-see approach.

@nflrjay
Darius Slay & James Bradberry vs Puka Nacua & Cooper Kupp || PERFORMED BY PROFESSIONALS‼️
♬ Shoot It Out – Jdot Breezy

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-7.5) (O/U 44.5)

Now here’s one of my games to target for DFS with plenty of pieces to go around. The game script should heavily lean in Kenneth Walker’s ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) favor, especially with a banged-up Zach Charbonnet. You can expect some high ownership on Walker, but don’t let that scare you off of him, as the Cardinals are a bottom-barrel all-around defense (30th DVOA against running backs, 26th DVOA to receivers). A solid cash play along with quarterback Geno Smith ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel), whereas most of the field may look to roster a pay-down quarterback.

As the norm goes for Arizona, they will most likely trail in this contest, giving another viable start for Marquise Brown ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel). His salary refuses to go up, so we’ll run it back one more time with Brown, who’ll smash the Seattle craptastic Cover-Three (30th DVOA) and produce (13.9 FPTS/game).

@wahlxa
Hollywood brown#hollywood #marquisebrown #cardinals #nfl #blowthisup
♬ original sound – him

Chargers @ Chiefs (-5.5) (O/U 48.5)

Locks: Pat Mahomes; Travis Kelce; Justin Herbert

Welcome to the game of the week ladies and gents! This game has the highest total on the slate, so grab as many Bolts and Chiefs for your lineups. Mahomes, Kelce, Herbert, and Allen are all at the top of the food chain, but there is still some value to be extracted. In a game that should go back and forth in scoring, Josh Palmer ($4,800 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) and Rashee Rice ($4,700 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) are key pieces that are still underpriced.

Austin Ekeler ($8,600 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) and Keenan Allen ($8,600 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) should see very little ownership, along with Pat Mahomes as the highest-priced quarterback, and great spots for GPP tournaments, it will be tricky to create but doable.

Let’s not forget about Isaiah Pacheco ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel), he’s beginning to be featured heavily in the Kansas City offense, especially in the red zone. He’s registered double-digit fantasy points since Week Three, so Pacheco will be popular and worth it.

Packers @ Broncos (+1) (U/O 44.5)

Another weekend to target the Vance Johnson Broncos defense? Yes please, keep them coming! The Packers coming off a bye week should be ready to pounce all over this secondary, and if Aaron Jones ($6,800 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) can play again since Week One, (a bit pricey for cash games) we’ll have to fire him up in a GPP against the worst-ranked run defense in the league (32nd-ranked). Not only does Jones have an opportunity to make a splash, but so do his teammates. Jordan Love ($5,800 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel), if he can be accurate, can carve up the Broncos Cover-Three with Romeo Doubs ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel), Christian Watson ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel), and the chalk at tight end for the week Luke Musgrave ($3,300 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) (Broncos are 32nd in DVOA against tight ends).

I do have to mention the matchup for Denver’s running backs as well (the Packers allow 143 rushing yards/game). Although it looks like from Vegas’ POV to be a close game, maybe it’s worth a dart throw in tournaments for Javonte Williams ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) or Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel).

Cash Core

Geno Smith
Kenneth Walker
Luke Musgrave
Josh Palmer
Marquise Brown

GPP Core

Pat Mahomes
Davante Adams
Zach Evans (safe for cash too)
Mark Andrews
Jerome Ford

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 7. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass for 50% off using promo code HALFOFF50 here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

2 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

LIVE NFL DFS Lineup Q & A for Oct 22

StixPicks & DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by StixPicks & DFSGhost

Fantasy Football DFS experts Stix and Ghost break down the best NFL DFS Picks for Sunday’s Main Slate for DraftKings and FanDuel. The guys will preview all the Week 7 games, making DFS picks as well as going over some player props and bets.

2 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

LIVE NFL DFS Lineup Q & A for Oct. 16

StixPicks & DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by StixPicks & DFSGhost

Fantasy Football DFS experts Stix and Ghost break down the best #nfldfspicks for Sunday’s Main Slate for DraftKings and FanDuel. The guys will preview the #nflweek6 games, making DFS picks as well as going over some player props and bets.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Six

Dave Gloeckner 2 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We rebounded nicely in Week 5 of the NFL by winning three of our four bets. I’m now 12-8 on the season with a 60% win rate. While that’s solid, the public went bananas against the books by going 12-2 ATS last week (based on # of bets placed). The only true win that Vegas had was in the England game where the Jaguars covered and won outright as a dog against Buffalo. That makes four straight winning weeks for the public so tread carefully this week, or ride the wave.

Looking as season long data, there has been no separation between favorites and underdogs as they are split down the middle with an identical 38-38-2 record ATS. We have seen the road teams cover slightly more often than the home teams, with a record of 40-36-2. But more impressively, the public has won at a 62.5% clip.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 12-8 (last week 3-1)

NFL BETS WEEK 6

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +3.5 at CINCINNATI BENGALS

I backed the Bengals last week and they came through in a big way by beating the Cardinals by 14 points. That game prompted post-game quotes from Ja’Marr Chase that he’s always open like a 7-11 store. Typical wide receiver talk and it was good to see Cincinnati finally feed their star the ball. But there’s trouble lying this week with Seattle. First, the Seahawks are coming off a bye week and are fresh coming across the country. Secondly, in their last game against the Giants, they sacked QB Daniel Jones eleven times. And while the Giants grade as the lowest pass blocking unit, the Bengals aren’t much better as they are the 7th worst OL in pass blocking.

The Seahawks have allowed a few big games to WR’s this season, but they own the 5th best defensive line according to pass rush rate. When we flip to the other sides of the ball, Seattle owns the 11th best run block offensive grade but the Bengals have the 3rd worst rushing defense in the NFL according to DVOA. The week off, plus the big advantage at the line of scrimmage, will keep the Seahawks in this game if not see them win it outright.

TAMPA BAY BUCS +3 vs DETROIT LIONS

The Buccaneers, like the Seahawks above, are coming off a bye-week. They also had an impressive win before getting a week off to rest as they smoked the New Orleans Saints in Week 4. And now that they’ve bottle up that good energy for 2 weeks, they get to uncork it against a Detroit team that is coming in somewhat short-handed. That’s because they’ve already ruled out RB Jahmyr Gibbs and LG Jonah Jackson. Additionally, rookie TE Sam LaPorta is listed as questionable. That would be a huge blow to a passing game that will be sorely needed against the Bucs who are rated as the 2nd best pass defense according to DVOA.

And while that’s just a small piece of the game side of things, the real reason I’m backing Tampa is due to the money and bets coming in as of this writing. Detroit opened as a 3.5 point favorite and has 76% of the bets and 54% of the money. Yet, the spread has moved in Tampa’s favor down to 3. Yes, that may be partly due to the aforementioned injuries, but it’s also a sign Vegas is not willing to give the hook to Tampa backers even though that’s the side they need. When we see a situation like this, they’re seeing sharp money come in on one side, and that’s likely the case here in Tampa. I’ll ride with the sharps, as well as the Creamsicle jerseys, this weekend in Tampa.

HOUSTON TEXANS +1.5 vs NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Here’s the first game where I will back the public. The Houston Texans have competed in every game to date and could easily be 3-2 and tied for the AFC South lead. But they let one get away last week against the Falcons and lost on a last-second FG. And they now move onto another NFC South opponent in the New Orleans Saints. The difference in this one is that they are home where they are 1-1 ATS and 1-1 SU (opposed to 1-2 SU on the road).

What I like in this one is that fact that is the Saints are 1-3-1 ATS on the season. Their first cover of the season was last week at New England where they got a defensive touchdown early and held the Patriots to just 156 total yards of offense. But this isn’t Mac Jones as the Texans have only turned the ball over twice this season. The Saints, on the other hand, are 6th in the NFL in takeaways with nine. Something will have to give in this one and if the Saints aren’t creating TOs then the Texans will be able to move the ball and put points on the board.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +2.5 at ATLANTA FALCONS

Honestly, I have no idea how this spread is just two points. But then I looked into a few factors and started to realize we have a live dog on our hands with Washington. First off, Atlanta covered the spread in Week 1 versus Carolina but is 0-4 ATS since that game. Secondly, Washington has played just two games on the road but is 2-0 ATS away from home. The Commanders are coming off an embarrassing defeat to the Bears but have extra days to right the ship since their last game was a Thursday Night Football game. Add to that Atlanta has won two games at home where they were favorites of 3 points or less, and failed to cover in both.

I see the odds stacking up nicely here for Washington to move the ball in the air against the Falcons who rank 25th in the NFL in passing defense DVOA. And Washington’s defensive weakness is Atlanta’s issue as well, as both struggle in the passing game. Give me the Commanders to continue their road efficiency and pull of the upset in the ATL.

SURVIVOR PICK BUFFALO BILLS

For transparency, I took the Kansas City Chiefs on TNF and kept my Survivor Pool alive without having to sweat a Sunday or Monday game. So, to be short here, my favorite picks outside of that are in the following order:

Buffalo Bills vs NYG: Bills get Tyrod Taylor this week. And they’re coming off a loss. This one could get ugly.
Miami Dolphins vs Carolina: The Dolphins are averaging 55.5 points per game at home. Carolina has the worst defense in football according to DVOA. Good luck Frank Reich.
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland: With DeShaun Watson out, the Browns turn to Dorian-Thompson Robinson. DTR threw three INT’s in backup duty for Watson last game. And now he faces the best defense in football. Ouch.
LA Rams vs Arizona: The Rams impressed me last week. If they can keep a clean pocket for Stafford, he can still pick you apart. And with the return of Cooper Kupp, that should happen this week in LA. Cardinals are beat up and can keep it close. This is a risky pick but one that could reap benefits later in the season if you’re able to save a top team like the 49ers, Dolphins or Bills.

Good luck all and keep the win streak alive!

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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