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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Ten

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

We had our second losing week of the year as Houston failed to cover by 0.5 points because their kicker got hurt. Those are the breaks and staying consistent with our methods is the key. We’re due for a lucky break and a big week. Which is exactly what we’re chasing for in Week 10 of the 2023 NFL Season. The good news is that we didn’t sweat our Survivor pick as Cleveland pulled away early against the Cardinals and won in blowout fashion.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 21-15 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 10

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -2.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Vikings added another miracle to their resume last week as QB Josh Dobbs came in the second quarter to captain Minnesota to an improbable comeback win in Atlanta. This was so improbable based on the fact that he joined the team just a few days prior to the game and didn’t know most people’s names or the plays. But that was also against a defense that was 25th in DVOA. The story is much different this week with the Saints as they rank 9th overall in defensive DVOA.

image courtesy of nflbreakingnews.com

Additionally, the Vikings have covered in four straight and are 5-3-1 ATS. However, they are just 1-3 SU and ATS at home. The public is backing the Vikings in both the money and number of bets (66%). This is a clear reflection of their recent play and the fact that NO has been bad to bettors this year (2-6-1 ATS). That changes today and the Saints will make sure the Dobbs magic was for just one week.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +2 vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

With talk of Bill Belichick’s job being on the line, I expect the Patriots to play inspired football today. Going into last season, Belichick was 25-4 SU against rookie head coaches. And that’s what he faces today with Shane Steichen taking over the Colts this season.

Looking deeper at the Colts, the issue is on defense where they allowed 37 points in three straight games before last week’s contest where they allowed just 13 to the Carolina Panthers. But the Panthers outgained the Colts and the victory came because of two defensive scores.

While New England’s offense isn’t much better than Carolina, I do believe they’ll be able to attack the Colts much better than the Panthers did. A back against the wall Belichick versus a rookie HC who has a porous defense. That’s enough ingredients for me to back the Pats today.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -3 at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The 49ers bye week came at a perfect time as they have been spiraling downwards in losing three straight games. A week away can only help them get rid of the bad vibes and refocus their energy on how dominant they were to start the season. On the other hand, the Jags also had a bye week but went into that in an opposite direction than San Fran as Jacksonville has won five straight.

Besides the difference in momentum, the teams are also flipping spots in how they perform. The Jags rank 3rd in defensive DVOA while the 49ers rank 15th. And offensively, the 49ers rank 1st in DVOA while the Jags are 14th. The strengths and weaknesses of these teams are flipped from what they are perceived to be. And with that, the 49ers will be motivated to get back to their winning ways and do it defensively. They will be able to create pressure and get after Trevor Lawrence.

This line is definitely tilted to SF as the books as look at the 49ers being almost one TD better than Jax on a neutral field. Give me the team that needs the win more today, and one that will be fired up coming out of their bye.

NY JETS -1 at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

The Jets are atrocious on offense. And yet here they are at 4-4 and still competing for a playoff spot. And the reason this line is where it’s at is mainly because of optics. The Jets scored just six points last week in prime time while the Raiders, who looked awful the week before on MNF, crushed the Giants. But if you look deeper at the numbers, the Jets held the Chargers to just 191 total yards last week. And that’s against a quality QB. Imagine what they can do versus a rookie starting only his second NFL game? The NFL is cyclical, and I believe an embarrassing loss like last week gives us an edge today. I’ll back the Jets as fade the public here as defense will rue the day.

SURVIVOR PICK DALLAS COWBOYS

Two Words: Tommy DeVito

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 10

Joe DiCarlo
written by Joe DiCarlo

Are we having fun yet? Well, can you’re cashing in DFS it usually is. Kudos to you if you stacked the Texans/Bucs shootout last weekend and dismissed the low SportsBook totals. Cash games were still solid, as players CeeDee Lamb and AJ Brown continue to be underpriced, we’ll still be crossing pay lines. Demario Douglas, our value move for 50/50’s, helped pave the way to stacking the Dallas/Philadelphia thriller in Week 9.
On to Week 10. Another 10-gamer because of the byes and a European morning exhibition. Let’s keep it cut and dry for cash and experiment in tournaments As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Sunday Main Slate 11/12/23

Texans @ Bengals (-6.5) (O/U 48)


The days of sneaking in an affordable low-key quarterback for DFS are over, as CJ Stroud begins separating himself from the field for the OROTY (Offensive Rookie of the Year). Fresh off of his best performance of the year, throwing for over 400 yards and five touchdowns, Stroud’s arm should be busy again in Cincinnati, but he’ll be without one of his favorite targets Nico Collins, who’ll be sidelined this weekend. Dalton Schultz, Tank Dell, and Robert Woods all get a bump this weekend with Collins out of the mix.

The Bengals have been on a roll since their bye, defeating the Forty-Niners and Bills without raising an eyebrow. As a touchdown favorite, they’ll need to rally without Tee Higgins, and possibly Ja’Maar Chase this weekend. Keep a close eye on the injury reports for Chase, as Joe Burrow’s arsenal could be heavily compromised. Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd rise the fantasy ladder against Houston, and others may include Irv Smith and Trent Irwin if Chase does sit this one out.

Browns @ Ravens (-6) (O/U 37.5)


A gruesome, grind-it-out divisional game in the AFC North. The Ravens and Browns are both a run-first offense and fully capable of stopping their opponents (3rd and 9th in DVOA against running backs).
Lamar Jackson has been disappointing for fantasy over the past few weeks, barely scoring double-digit points. He’s untouchable for cash, but if you’re looking at ownership for tournaments, fire away on Jackson. Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews have been Lamar’s go-to guys all year in the air attack, so if the Browns do manage to hold the line, both will be in play for Baltimore.


Deshaun Watson showed us some improvement last week throwing for two touchdowns, but it was against one of the worst defenses in the league in Arizona. I can’t see the same scenario play out for Watson on the road in Baltimore, whose defense has been the stingiest in the league in points allowed (13.9). The Browns’ offense could struggle this weekend against the top-ten Ravens’ defense, buyer beware for DFS in Cleveland.

Niners @ Jaguars (+3) (O/U 46.5)

Lock: Christian McCaffrey

It would be a hard pill to swallow to see San Francisco lose four straight games, but stranger things have happened in the NFL. Brock Purdy will be getting some key pieces back, including Pro Bowl Left Tackle Trent Williams. He’ll be much needed against a Jaguars’ pass-funnel offense to connect with the likes of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. CMC remains unfadeable. He leads the league in rushing (652 yards), receiving (292 yards), and total touchdowns (13) amongst running backs. Always worth his weight in DFS, and superb for GPPs because of his high price tag.

The Jags are winners of five straight games and are very capable of making it six against a recently exploited San Fransisco secondary. Trevor Lawrence is due for a game, and this could be the weekend to roster him for DFS in GPP as the field will sway away because of his past performances. For only $6,000 on DraftKings, he’s got the game script and a healthy gang of receivers at his disposal, including running back Travis Etienne, who’s currently fourth in the league in fantasy points per game with 20.5.

Packers @ Steelers (-3) (O/U 38)

Another stinker, do I smell both defenses on either side here? Green Bay finally let loose Aaron Jones last weekend, touching the rock 20 times for 73 yards and a touchdown as well as catching six passes from Jordan Love, who by the way still looks like he has no clue how to run the offense. The Packers rely on Jones to move the ball, and against a Steelers defense that ranks 29th against the run, he is in the DFS conversation.

Oh boy, the Steelers, where do we attack in black and gold? Kenny Pickett has one foot out the door in Pittsburgh, so no thanks. We should see another force-fed game as last week against Tennessee. Najee Harris ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) and Jaylen Warren ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) are both affordable facing a Packers’ 23rd in DVOA against running backs, especially Harris as he sees the majority of touches in the red zone for the duo. The Packers’ shutdown corner Jaire Alexander will miss another game here in Week 10, so Diontae Johnson ($5,400 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) in the short-range passing game at his low price.

Saints @ Vikings (+2.5) (O/U 41)

The Vikes traded for Josh Dobbs on the deadline and pulled out a win, barely knowing the Minnesota playbook. He’ll be up to his old bag of tricks in his new home, peppering the tight end position… hello TJ Hockenson! But as the Vikings gained a quarterback to replace Kirk Cousins, they lost running back Cam Akers and receiver KJ Osborn this week. Alexander Mattison will now own the backfield once again, but the matchup isn’t the juiciest. With the loss of Osborn however, the doors have opened up again for punts at receiver such as Brandon Powell and Trishton Jackson, take your shot in tournaments!

It’s once again that time to pick on that famous Minnesota secondary who loves to pad the stats of their opponents across the field. Chris Olave has the best matchup on paper and is a lock for cash facing the Minnesota defense that allowed tight end Jonnu Smith a stat line of 5REC/100YDS/1TD with quarterback Taylor Heinicke.

Titans @ Bucs (-1) (O/U 39)


Don’t be scared away by this low total ladies and gents, as we have two terrible defenses going heads up in Tampa. The 26th-ranked Tennessee secondary will meet the 31st-ranked Tampa Bay secondary to discuss who will be smoked the most this weekend. Could it be Tenessee? They’ll be missing their best corner Sean Murphy-Bunting, setting up Mike Evans to run circles around Christian Fulton and Roger McCreary all afternoon. Or perhaps Tampa? The rookie Will Levis looks pretty comfortable with Derrick Henry in the backfield and DeAndre Hopkins to target.


I’d dive into some pieces here on the slate, and possibly stack with some of the other affordable assets such as Baker Mayfield and Rachaad White, who has become a check-down machine lately (17 REC in the previous three games). Keep in mind, both sides play a very concentrated style of distributing the football, making it easy for us fantasy managers to know where the points are headed…no need to get cute here!

Lions @ Chargers (+2.5) (O/U 48.5)


Shoot out alert! Starring in the highest total of the slate, Jared Goff ($6,400 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) returns to LA, indoors, and against a Chargers secondary that is dead-last in passing yards allowed (286/32nd DVOA). Lock him across the board in your cash or GPPs as his price is criminal. Don’t stop at Goff either, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam La Porta make the cut here as well for cash in a game that should take the cake for ownership.


The Chargers have welcomed back running back Austin Ekeler with wide-open arms from injury, scoring 20 fantasy points per game in his return. But against the Lions’ third-ranked run defense, we can’t afford the risk. Even Justin Herbert is priced up still, who we can’t trust with his only healthy weapon of Keenan Allen available. This may be the week we see Quentin Johnson ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) break out, as he’s run in 58% of the Chargers’ routes. He’s priced right and a sneaky run-back play in a stack here.

Falcons @ Cardinals (+1) (O/U 43.5)


The dumpster fire defense in the desert is open for business for another weekend. Taylor Heinicke, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and even Bijon Robinson all are sitting pretty for DFS, we just have to hope and pray head coach Arthur Smith doesn’t screw us over again. Not one Falcon is over $6K on DraftKings, so grab some value in Atlanta as they face a gross secondary led by Marco Wilson and a run defense that has allowed 14 touchdowns to running backs on the year.


There will be some glimmer of light on offense for the Cards in Week 10, as Kyler Murray will make his debut. I’m not running to use him just yet for DFS, but he has been known to attack preferred targets like Marquise Brown ($5,200 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) and Rondale Moore ($3,000 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) when he was healthy last season. I’d be more than happy to gamble on such receivers in cash or GPPs because of their low costs.

Giants @ Cowboys (-16) (U/O 38.5)


Yikes, guys, this game has a blowout script written all over it. The Giants are tanking the season as they are rolling with GoodFella Tommy DeVito at quarterback and a secondary filled by Adoree Jackson and Diontae Banks. On the road in Dallas, we could see this contest over by halftime. I love Pollard in this spot along with CeeDee Lamb, but you have to keep in mind, how much will they be needed. The Cowboy’s defense looks awesome too, but should we have to pay up there? Not really. I’d have no issue staying away altogether from this game due to the facts we all see in plain sight.

Commanders @ Seahawks (-6) (O/U 45.5)

Seattle at home is in a great spot to bounce back and get into the win column as the defense-less Commanders pay a visit. The total score is not bad at all compared to some of the others we’ve seen on the slate, so the field could show some interest. Geno Smith will see not much pressure in the pocket with the commanders trading away Chase Young and Montez Sweat. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the book ends of the receiving core and should see the bulk of the volume against the 30th-ranked coverage of Washington. Running back Kenneth Walker is also fully healthy, start him up for cash as Seattle’s bell cow in a touchdown-favored contest.

For Washington, it’s been the Sam Howell show. He’s risky, but no stranger to chucking the pigskin. Sam has thrown for well over 700 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games, can he make it three 300-yard games in a row? Watch the weather, if the rain shows up in Seattle, you may not want to take the jump on Howell or any of his pass-catchers, as the Seattle defense can be respectable at home. Otherwise, Johan Dotson and Terry McLaurin against the 25th-ranked Seattle coverage could be in store for a busy afternoon.

Cash Core

  • Jared Goff
  • Amon-Ra St.Brown
  • Kenneth Walker
  • Kyle Pitts


GPP Core

  • Taylor Heinicke
  • DK Metcalf
  • Najee Harris
  • Sam La Porta

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 10. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass and get your first 7 days free here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 10

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 9 was not a pretty week for RBs. But we hit on five of the top ten backs on the board including nailing the top RB producer in Rachaad White. Who by the way, was only owned by 9% of owners in the main slate Milly Maker. The highest producing lineups last week used just 2 RBs in their lineup. And looking at the Week 10 slate, we might be in for a similar strategy.

Please check out Stix’s weekly projections when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also, remember to check out the NFL Pre-Lock Show on Sunday at 11 am on YouTube.

I highlight my favorite ten RBs each week and break them into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY $9200 DraftKings $8300 FanDuel

Don’t overthink this one too much. With a lack of depth at RB, and value in the QB and WR fields, we can spend up on McCaffrey. Jacksonville has been good against RBs but they have allowed the most receptions to backs this year with 60. That’s an average of 7.5 catches for RBs per week. And do you know who is good at catching the ball out of the backfield? That’s right its CMAC who has 32 catches this season for an average of 4 per game. The 49ers RB should have room to run on the ground but it is his value in the passing game which makes him have one of the highest ceilings this week.

DERRICK HENRY $7400 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Now that Tennessee has a QB that can advance the ball downfield, their star RB has room to run. In the last three games, Henry has averaged 91 yards rushing. He’s also brought in three catches per game in those same contests. His opponent this week is Tampa Bay who has been solid against the run as they’ve allowed the 5th least fantasy points to RBs. But as you dive inside the numbers, the Bucs are vulnerable as they allow 4.8 ypc and are just 12th best against the run according to DVOA+. The other factor is the Bucs are the worst defense against the pass so their run defense doesn’t get tested very often. I expect Tennessee to buck that trend and feed Henry this week.

TONY POLLARD $7300 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

There comes a week that Pollard has to break out of his season long slump. The Cowboys RB was taken in the top 20 of most fantasy drafts and has let most owners down. But in comes the Giants who are 28th in rushing defense DVOA and allow the 8th most points to fantasy RBs. With a watered down RB slate, I’m going to trust Pollard with a blindfold. If not this week, then it may be Rico Dowdle time.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

DAVID MONTGOMERY $6900 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel

Let me show you a few numbers and you can choose which RB is a better player:

  • Running Back A: 399 yards rushing, 5.3 ypc, 5 catches per game, 165 receiving yards, 5.9 y/catch
  • Running Back B: 385 yards rushing, 4.0 ypc, 1 catch per game, 66 receiving yards, 11 y/catch

Welcome to Detroit Lions football. Where the head coach favors 4 yards and a cloud of dust. Running back B is David Montgomery who is now back and healthy. Running back A is Jahmyr Gibbs who collected 220 yards rushing in the last two games while Montgomery was out. But I expect HC Dan Campbell to revert back to his old ways and give Montgomery 60% of the touches and all near the goal line. If so, he will pay off at this price as he’s facing a Chargers defense that is 20th in rushing defense DVOA.

AARON JONES $6500 DraftKings $6200 FanDuel

Aaron Jones finally broke out last week as he put up his best numbers since opening week against Chicago. And he isn’t listed on the injury report this week which is a sign he is 100% healthy. He gets the Pittsburgh Steelers this week who have allowed the 6th most points to RBs. The other good news is that Jones has been featured in the passing game with 16 targets the last three weeks.

JOE MIXON $6200 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

Part of the Bengals ascension of late has been their renewed commitment to the running game. And Joe Mixon has been the beneficiary as he’s averaged 15 fantasy points per game in Cincy’s four game winning streak. This week he gets the Texans who struggle stopping the run. Houston has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to RBs and has allowed eight TDs to ball carriers. Just look at Tampa last week who has the 2nd worst rushing offense their 3rd highest rushing output of the season last week against Houston, including two rushing TDs.

BIJAN ROBINSON $6000 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

If HC Arthur Smith doesn’t feed Bijan this week then Atlanta needs to reconsider who should be leading this team. Their opponent, Arizona, allows the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs. They are also ranked 30th in rushing defense DVOA. Robinson is a dynamic back that was drafted in the top 10 for a reason. With a backup QB under center, the running game needs to be the focal point. I’m bullish on Bijan based on matchup but I also know Arthur Smith can ruin that position very easily. Therefore, I’m leaning on the Falcons RB more on GPPs based on a potentially high ceiling and fading in cash based on a very low floor.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

JAMES CONNER $5900 DraftKings $7300 FanDuel

Conner has been activated from the IL. And at this price, he is definitely worth considering. The Falcons are allowing 107 yards rushing per game which is in the middle of the pack in the NFL. With the return of Kyler Murray, the running game has potential to open up. And if Conner plays, he’s a candidate for 20+ touches as the options behind him are very underwhelming.

RASCHAAD WHITE DraftKings $5800 FanDuel $6600

The Bucs RB has averaged 20.5 fantasy points over the past three weeks. In that span, he’s seen 75%, 82% and 80% of the snaps. He’s a workhorse that is underpriced based on his usage. While Tennessee has been good against the run the past two seasons, teams have started move the ball effectively on the ground against the Titans. Just last week, the Steeler ran for 166 yards against Tennessee. And Pittsburgh has the 22nd ranked run offense according to DVOA. This is a good price and a decent spot for White, who led all RBs in scoring last week.

JAYLEN WARREN DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6600

Warren had his best game of the year last week against the Titans when he ran for 88 yards on 11 carries. This week he faces the Packers who have struggled against the run for two years. This year they are allowing the 8th most points to RBs and are 20th in rushing defense DVOA. While Harris will still get 55% of the snaps or more, Warren is closing the gap in touches as he got 45% last week.

BONUS: DEVIN SINGLETARY DraftKings $4600 FanDuel $6600

With Dameon Pierce already ruled out, Singletary should get the majority of the touches at RB this week against the Bengals. That’s worth a look at this price tag.

RB PROP BETS

TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFLSports Betting

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Nine

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

We finished 2-2 last week brining our season long record in the NFL to 20-12. It’s been a solid season and look to continue that into Week 9. It’s been a busy weekend so the writeups are short. But there’s still some money to be made no matter the length of the analysis or not.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 20-12 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 9

HOUSTON TEXAS -2.5 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS

The Texans lost a nailbiter to the Panthers last week. But the good news is that they’re back home in Texas where they are 2-1 this year. The Bucs, on the other hand, are coming into this contest losers in three straight games. But that hasn’t stopped the public from backing Tampa with 66% of the money and 70% of the bets coming in on the Bucs. I’ll fade the public here as I think the Texans are the better team and will win this game.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -1.5 vs NEW YORK GIANTS

The Raiders fired their head coach and GM last week. They also announced a new starting QB in rookie Aidan O’Connell. And they’re coming off a short week as their last game was Monday night. Yet, with all the moving pieces, they are still favored versus the Giants today. I’m trusting Vegas here, in several ways, and will back the Raiders against a punchless Giants group that just knows how to lose games.

BUFFALO BILLS +2.5 at CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Bills last trip to Cincy ended in a tragic site that ended with a miracle. They return to that frantic scene tonight and will have Damar Hamlin making that trip with them. While the Bills have been somewhat of an enigma this season, they have motivation on their side to win one for Damar. I believe the matchup in the trenches will be the difference and Buffalo will create enough pressure on Joe Burrow to come out of Cincinnati with a W.

ATLANTA FALCONS -3.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Taylor Heineke is back in a role he was suited for. Backup NFL QB promoted to starting QB to save a team looking to make a push for a Division title. Isn’t that what he did every season in Washington? But in all seriousness, Heineke will bring a new wrinkle to the offense as they’ll be able to press the ball downfield more with him under center. They are missing Drake London today but still have enough weapons on O to put up points.

And on the other side, they are facing rookie QB Jaren Hall who was somewhat of an afterthought in this years draft. He’ll be under pressure to make plays with his arm as Atlanta boasts the 2nd best run defense according to PFF.

SURVIVOR PICK CLEVELAND BROWNS

I have concerns about this pick as Cleveland is bringing Watson back in to start and we could see some rust from their franchise QB. But the defense should be able to hold down Arizona long enough for the offense to click and pull out the W.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 9

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

We once again hit 6 out of the top 10 RBs in Week 8. Most importantly we hit on four of the top five scorers and two of those were in the milli-maker winner (Breece Hall and Alvin Kamara). We’re back to bye week’s in Week 9 so we just have 10 games to choose from this week. On the surface, there are a few good options in Tier 1, but most of our work this week will be finding the value in Tier 3.

Please check out Stix’s weekly projections when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also, remember to check out the NFL Pre-Lock Show on Sunday at 11 am on YouTube.

I highlight my favorite ten RBs each week and break them into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

ALVIN KAMARA $8100 DraftKings $8300 FanDuel

Kamara has been the best fantasy RB in the NFL since his return from suspension in Week 4. Over that five game stretch he’s averaging 22.8 DK points, and his floor has been 17.4. He has a staggering 39 catches in five games putting him on for over 100 catches this year.

His reward this week is facing a Bears team that is allowing the 26th most fantasy points to RB’s. While the Bears have been stingy against the run, they’ve allowed the 2nd most receptions to RBs (48) and allowed the most receiving TDs (5). Understanding Kamara’s role in the offense makes this a great matchup and smash spot for the Saints RB.

SAQUON BARKLEY $7900 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Barkley’s volume has been astounding the past few weeks. Last week alone, he was on the field for 89% of the snaps and received 39 touches. I guess you can do that when you don’t have an investment into your star RB past this season. So it looks like this will be more of the same for the Giants as they weave through a season that is looking bleaker and bleaker by the day.

But the good news for us fantasy owners is that Barkley, when paired against the right defense, will be in play for DFS based on his volume alone. This week he gets to face the Raiders who we just saw get bludgeoned by Jahmyr Gibbs and the Detroit Lions O-Line. They are allowing the 3rd most points to RBs and the 2nd most rushing yards per game. And they just fired a whole bunch of people leaving the D-coordinator to now put together a game plan in 6 days. This is a great spot for Barkley to pick-up where the Lions left off.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JOSH JACOBS $6900 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel

I said this last year and I’ll say it again in 2023, when Josh Jacobs is the focus of the offense the Raiders typically win ball games. So far this season, the Raiders are 2-0 when Jacobs has received 20+ carries. In 2022, they were 6-3 in such occurrences. And that’s probably a big reason why Josh McDaniels is gone. This week, I expect Raiders interim HC Antonio Pierce to keep it simple and feed Jacobs the ball. For one, the Raiders are starting a rookie QB so they will need to establish and lean on the run game.

And secondly, the Giants are bad at stopping the run. Like real bad. They are 27th in rushing defense DVOA and have allowed the 8th most rushing yards per game in the league at 127.4. In fact, six of the Giants eight opponents have rushed for more than 100 yards against them. Jacobs is in line for a big week against a little Blue defense.

D’ANDRE SWIFT $6600 DraftKings $6200 FanDuel

The Cowboys have not faced any real rushing threats outside the 49ers. So their inflated stats on defense, particularly against the run, are misleading. In that game against San Fran, the 49ers ran for 170 yards. They have faced two other opponents with a top 10 rushing offense, according to DVOA, and allowed 222 rushing yards to the Cardinals and 94 rushing yards to the Rams (Cowboys were up by 27 and Rams abandoned the run).

Their opponent this week, the Eagles, also boast a top 10 rushing offense. And with Hurts having potential injury concerns, there is an opportunity for the Eagles to focus on their running game. I believe this is a very good spot for Swift to breakout as he will be under-owned due to the Cowboys defensive metrics. But as shown above, those are very misleading numbers and they can be vulnerable to good rushing offenses.

JONATHAN TAYLOR $6400 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

This is my favorite spot of the week. And I’m likely eating chalk. But that’s OK because the price and the matchup is too good to pass up. First off, Taylor is back despite the split in stats with Zack Moss. Last week JT had 94 yards rushing in the first half and got just one carry the entire second half. It was clearly a lapse in judgment by HC Shane Steichen and something he will need to atone for this week against Carolina.

That’s because the Panthers have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs. And they are allowing the 3rd most rushing yards per game at 139.4. Taylor’s usage has increased every week, and he received a season high 61% of the snaps last week. Expect that number to go up and for Steichen to lean on his star RB against a porous run defense in Carolina.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

GUS EDWARDS $5900 DraftKings $7300 FanDuel

The Gus Bus is back and is rolling over anything in its way. In the last two weeks, Edwards has received the goal line carries and punched it in the endzone four times. He’s also getting more touches than Justice Hill by a 3-1 ratio. And now that the trade deadline has gone and past, with no real improvement to the backfield, this is Edwards job to lose.

This week he gets a fairly tough matchup as Seattle sits inside the top 10 in most defensive rushing metrics. But they have allowed six rushing touchdowns which is the 7th most in the NFL. And all of those have been from inside the 10 yard line. So as long as Baltimore is moving the ball in the air to inside the redzone, Edwards will be able to get many opportunities to keep his TD streak alive. As well as put up valuable fantasy numbers.

RASCHAAD WHITE DraftKings $5600 FanDuel $6600

The Bucs RB has returned to fantasy RB option after two solid weeks. The rushing yards are still lacking but his involvement in the passing game has added value to his stat line. Over the past two weeks, White has 13 receptions and has averaged 16.9 DK points. This week he faces Houston who is allowing 5 receptions per game to RBs. They’ve also allowed the 13th most fantasy points to RBs. So White is in a solid spot though his ceiling isn’t as high as others due to the issues with Tampa’s running game.

KAREEM HUNT DraftKings $5500 FanDuel $6600

Kareem Hunt shared duties with Jerome Ford but had the higher output last week in Seattle. In fact, it was almost a 3-way split in snaps as Pierre Strong also joined the backfield attack. In the end, Hunt had the most touches and is the biggest threat running the ball. Which is important as the Browns opponent this week, the Arizona Cardinals, allow the 7th most rushing yards per game and the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs. It’s a crowded backfield, but I lean toward Hunt as having the highest ceiling in a favorable matchup.

CHUBBA HUBBARD DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6600

Hubbard received 67% of the snaps and 70% of the touches last week signifying an obvious shift in Carolina’s backfield hierarchy. Miles Sanders, the Panthers prized FA, received just 2 touches and 10% of the snaps. So while this is a dumpster dive in terms of salary, there is high value in deploying Hubbard versus a week Indianapolis run D. The Colts rank 24th in rushing defense DVOA and allow the 5th most points to RBs.

RB PROP BETS

TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 9

Joe DiCarlo
written by Joe DiCarlo

Another week of NFL is in the books as we enter the second half of the season for DFS. Cash games were on the money for Week 8, as we stacked Jalen Hurts with AJ Brown, and then paid down at tight end with Trey McBride. But as we lose more teams to the byes and the KC/Miami contest is set up in Germany, our slate shrinks to ten games, but who’s complaining? The slate may look gross on paper with all the low totals, but there’s always money to be made fellas.

The field should sway mostly towards the Cowboys/Eagles contest as it’s the highest total on the slate. The salaries are inflated as usual on guys like CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Hurts, so will need to do a little dumpster diving on the less-popular games for value. As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Sunday Main Slate 11/5/23

Seahawks @ Ravens (-6) (O/U 43)

Lock: Lamar Jackson

Lamar is a no-brainer at home, but is he against this revamped defense of the Seahawks after trading for Leonard Williams? Jackson will be chalky with a high floor due to his rushing ability of course, but the Seattle DST ($2,400 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) is a lot more appealing with Leonard on hand to pressure Lamar. But who else can we decide on for this match-up? Gus “The Bus” Edwards has cemented his role in the backfield after scoring four touchdowns in his last two starts, sign me up for cash games along with Zay Flowers. The rookie wideout should see plenty of Cover-3 from Seattle, which will eat up for lunch. Seattle’s secondary is ranked 27th in the league against the pass, which would also serve the Ravens’ top pass-catcher Mark Andrews well this week.

Seattle’s DK Metcalf is another household name who can make a statement this weekend on the road. He’s Geno’s first read, and if he gets dialed in, it could be a long day for Marlon Humphrey. Low ownership for Metcalf so far, so he’ll make a great GPP candidate.

Cardinals @ Browns (-8) (O/U 37.5)

Tight end Trey McBride had a coming-out party with his ten receptions to go along with 95 yards and a touchdown. Should we lock him in you ask? Not so fast. The stat line was connected to former Cardinals’ quarterback Josh Dobbs, who was traded to Minnesota. Instead of chasing McBride points, let’s focus on the Browns’ run game. The Cardinals were smacked six ways to Sunday by Baltimore last weekend on the ground (see Gus “The Bus) and by Kenneth Walker the week before. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt could clean up for Cash games this weekend at their affordable prices for DFS, let’s keep it simple in this game.

We don’t want to be too connected to the passing games of both teams this weekend, especially for cash games. The Cardinals still have not named a starting quarterback as of Friday evening and Deshaun Watson’s shoulder has been a mystery all season. Although I would be interested in the Browns’ DST if the Cardinals roll with rookie quarterback Clayton Tune for some potential turnovers.

Update: Deshaun Watson will play with no restrictions, Clayton Tune to start at QB.

Bears @ Saints (-7.5) (O/U 41.5)

Lock: Alvin Kamara

Another week without Justin Fields at quarterback spells disaster in fantasy for any Bears until further notice. Tyson Bagent has not been the answer and pedestrian filling in for Fields since Week 6, throwing only one touchdown to three interceptions. If I go anywhere near this game for pieces, they’ll be in black and gold uniforms for sure.

Derek Carr is in a spot to smash his salary once again for the third week in a row, as the field just gives him no love for fantasy. Simply safe for cash on this weak slate where he can easily get you 18 fantasy points against a Bears’ secondary (26th in DVOA against the pass) led by whipping boy Tyriique Stevenson. He’ll see a lot of Michael Thomas and Chris Olave, with some Rasheed Shaeheed as well. Of course, I won’t forget to mention Alvin Kamara, just saving the best for last. He’s risen to the top of the RB list on the slate because of his recent play. Even though tight end Taysom Hill has been culturing goal-line work< Kamara has still managed to average 22 FPTS/game on the receiving and rushing production alone since Week 4. If you can afford him, use Carr’s check-down champ.

Commanders @ Patriots (-3.5) (O/U 41)

I’ve got some serious strategies for my builds this weekend for DFS, and it will involve this stinker up in New England. I don’t see too many points being scored, but the football will be moved up and down the field. Let’s start on the Commanders’ side of the ball. Is Sam Howell the real deal, the dude threw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns, racking up 35 DK FPTS. For a mid-range quarterback on this slate, if he can put up half of what he did last week, we’ll be satisfied.

How about stacking Howell on this slate, wouldn’t that be fun? Terry McLaurin has been a target funnel for Howell, with 32 in his last three games all while putting up double-digit fantasy points and still a bargain as a mid-tier receiver. But wait a second, I’m not done just yet on the stack, we’ll need some runback options.

Now that we know Kendrick Bourne is done for the year and Devante Parker is already ruled out, the Pats will be a skeleton crew at receiving bodies. Demario Douglas, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry, and running back Rhamondre Stevenson are all in the mix for this contest, and all are cap-space creators this weekend. Douglas is a lock for Cash as the defacto WR-1 in New England, so expect a ton of ownership from a guy who’ll be carving up Washington’s St.Juste beatable coverage.

@patriots.money

Really the only good play from this awful game by the patriots #foryou #demario #demariodouglas #patriots #pats #PatsNation #PatriotsNation #nfl #NFL #patriotsvscowboys #rookie #entertain #cooledit #cool #edit #fyp #fup #4up #feature #featureme #amazing #viral

♬ original sound – 🔴BEST PATRIOTS PROFILE 🔵

Vikings @ Falcons (-4.5) (U/O 37.5)

Trust nobody in purple this weekend, since the Vikings are set on starting the rookie Jaren Hall at quarterback. Until newly acquired Josh Dobbs is ready to take over the keys to the high-octane Minnesota offense, we’ll play wait and see, or maybe look into using the Falcons DST, although Will Levis carved up Atlanta last week. Tread lightly.

On the brighter side of the field, welcome back Taylor Heinicke! We finally may see some of the Falcons receiving core put up some relevant and consistent numbers. It’s a shame Drake London will miss the Heinicke breakout this weekend, but Kyle Pitts and Van Jefferson are still there to pick up the pieces. The passing threat is also awesome news for Bijan Robinson, who may see fewer men in the box now that Ridder has finally hit the pine. Fire up some Falcons for GPP’s.

Rams @ Packers (-3.5) (O/U 38.5)

It’s Friday, and we still are not sure if Matt Stafford is playing. If he’s out, so are we on any Rams. We have no idea where the ball will be going out of Brett Rypien’s hands, and head coach Sean McVay always has something up his sleeve when it comes to his running backs, steer clear.

Now as bad as Jordan Love is at quarterback for the Packers, he still manages to scrape up some fantasy value. Either by his legs or tipped passes into the hands of his receivers, he should hit value against LA’s awful secondary (22nd in DVOA against the pass). Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Luke Musgrave all grade well against the Rams in their Cover-3 scheme especially when they blitz. Great GPP options.

Update: Matt Stafford is out

Colts @ Panthers (+2.5) (O/U 44)

When I first saw this game on the slate, the first thing that popped into my head was running backs, here are my backs for Sunday! Jonathon Taylor’s touches and role have increased every week since coming off the PUP, yet Zack Moss is still hanging around. Facing the dead-last rushing defense in the league, I think we get some closure on Taylor this week, start him up for cash. Indy is no run-stopper either as they rank 31st against opposing running backs. Carolina has a new sheriff in town, and Chuba Hubbard will be starting over Miles Sanders this week, we love his pricetag.

New Orleans obliterated the Colts’ secondary last weekend, it’ll be the Panthers’ turn this Sunday. They may also be down their best corner Ju Ju Brents, who is still not ready to return to game action. The passing core of Carolina gets an even larger upgrade, and Bryce Young with Jonathon Mingo could be Milli-Makers this weekend. Very affordable price tags as opposed to the veteran Adam Thielen, who has cheated Father Time by rejuvenating his career in Carolina. Thielen’s high salary makes him a GPP darling this week.

The Colts’ rookie Josh Downs continues to turn heads and lock eyes with Gardner Minshew. He has not let down fantasy managers yet this season, racking up 40REC/473YDS/2TDS. Grab him while he is still under $6K on DraftKings, as those days are approaching fast.

@nflcanada

Give. Chuba. The. Ball. 🔥 #nfl #nflcanada #chubahubbard

♬ original sound – NFL Canada

Bucs @ Texans (-2.5) (O/U 40)

This game is just not jumping out to me whatsoever sorry guys, but roster-able pieces are in this match-up. The total and spread simply scream a tight, close game. Baker Mayfield has had a man crush on Mike Evans since Week 1, along with tight end Cade Otton. Rightfully so for him to be dialed into the future Hall of Famer, who should eat well against the Texans’ zone and Cover-3 defense.

The Texans have already ruled out running back Dameon Pierce not that it matters, as neither he nor Devin Singletary has got anything done yet on the ground. It’s been the CJ Stroud and Nico Collins show or bust in Houston in 2023, don’t expect much more from an injury-prone Robert Woods again. Perhaps Dalton Schultz as a punt at tight end makes some sense as he has filled the stat sheet in the past.

Update: Dameon Pierce is out

@wahlxa

Hollywood brown#hollywood #marquisebrown #cardinals #nfl #blowthisup

♬ original sound – him

Giants @ Raiders (-1.5) (O/U 37)

On to the afternoon segments, the recently freed Vegas Raiders of the Josh McDaniels regime host New York with a healthy Daniel Jones back in the lineup. It’s the battle of the highest-paid future backup quarterbacks now that Jimmy Garoppolo has been benched and Jones is not too far from that scenario. I love both running backs in their situations. Saquon owns almost the entire volume (85% opportunity share) and Josh Jacobs saw 11 targets the last time rookie Aidan O’Connell suited up in black and silver.

We also might finally see Davante Adams breakout from his slumber facing an atrocious secondary of Adoree Jackson and Diontae Banks. Adams is a GPP gem on a team that may be force-fed the ball by an interim coaching staff looking to keep it simple.

@wahlxa

Hollywood brown#hollywood #marquisebrown #cardinals #nfl #blowthisup

♬ original sound – him

Cowboys @ Eagles (-3) (U/O 47)

Lock: Jalen Hurts

The main event of the slate, where all the ownership will flock to DFS this weekend. Pretty cut and dry here folks, we all know by now where to butter our bread in Philly, Jalen Hurts, and AJ Brown. The duo has connected on well over 100 receiving yards per game since Week 4, adding five touchdowns, while still being underpriced on DraftKings.

The Boys will need another big turnout from Dak, and against the Eagles’ beatable man coverage, it should be another CeeDee Lamb day. Lamb ran up the stat sheet with a 12 catch, 158 yards, and two touchdowns against the Rams last week, he faces the 32nd-ranked secondary in the City of Brotherly Love.

If you’re looking to stack and pivot in the highest-totaled game of the slate, go, with Jake Ferguson, and D’Andre Swift. Ferguson is number two in the league in red zone targets (12) and Swift never leaves the field in big games (12th in routes run)

@al3xcarp

AJ BROWN WENT OFF VS THE DOLPHINS 😮‍💨😮‍💨 #eagles #philadelphiaeagles #ajbrown #al3x_carp23

♬ original sound – alex

Cash Core

  • Derek Carr
  • Jonathon Taylor
  • Demario Douglas
  • AJ Brown

GPP Core 

  • Sam Howell
  • Jonathon Mingo
  • Jake Ferguson
  • Davante Adams

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 9. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass and get your first 7 days free here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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