I hope everyone had a great holiday, nothing better than a Thanksgiving day with food, family, and football. With the mini-slate in our rear-view mirror and a Black Friday afternoon Showdown wrapping up, the Main Slate gets trimmed down to ten games.

The totals are disgusting again, with only a few barely breaking the 45 mark. Injuries have played a huge part in Vegas’ projections, but regardless we’re in here to cross pay lines. We had some pretty high totals for cash, as the chalk extremely well with guys like Tank Dell and Devon Singletary.

As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Sunday Main Slate 11/26/23

Panthers @ Titans (-3.5) (O/U 36.5)

Two rookie quarterbacks square off in Tennessee in a low total projected game, where turnovers and three-and-outs could lead to some poor performances. Will Levis has cooled down since his debut and Bryce Young continues to be untrustworthy for fantasy. But on the bright side, the worst run defense (CAR is 31st in DVOA against the rush) in the league will be hosting one of the bottom-of-the-barrel secondaries (TEN is 27th in DVOA to receivers). Adam Thielen ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) and Derrick Henry ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) have the best matchups on paper for the slate and may be hidden gems buried in a game with a nauseating total of 36. Thielen for GPPs, Henry on DraftKings is way too cheap and viable for cash games. Both defenses are also in play.

Steelers @ Bengals (+1.5) (O/U 35.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals host Pittsburgh in an AFC North battle featuring another dismal low total, mainly due to the fact we lost Joe Burrow for the season, and in turn the Bengals offense. The Steelers have struggled all year because of Kenny Pickett and former OC Matt Canada, but still sit with a winning record thanks to their solid defense. The Steelers DST ($3.700 DraftKings/$ 4,700 FanDuel) should be popular facing Bengals’ backup Jake Browning but will cost an arm and a leg.

In what looks to possibly be a washout with some rain in the forecast, Pickett may also cough up the ball and slip up too, so I’d have no problem rolling out Cincinnati’s DST ($3,300 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) behind a charged-up home crowd. However, the Bengals have been fruitful to opposing running backs over the past two games, allowing a total of 246 rushing yards with three touchdowns. The Steelers’ dual backfield of Jaylen Warren ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) and Najee Harris ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) offer a paydown at running back this weekend on the slate, but only as a tournament play.

Jaguars @ Texans (-9.5) (O/U 47)

Now we’re seeing some action finally. A potential back-and-forth AFC South barn-burner compared to most of the games this weekend. Both teams have been lit up in their secondaries through 11 weeks, facing weakness at cornerback (Tre Herndon) and pass-funnel-style defenses. The 47 total suggests another big day from the Texan’s C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell, who combined for 18 receptions for 319 yards and four touchdowns in their last three games. If you’re looking to pay up and pivot off the Eagles/Bills game, I recommend doing it in this spot.

Trevor Lawrence will be looking to repeat his best performance of 2023 from last week’s 30-plus fantasy point game, scoring four touchdowns with two himself on the ground. If Chef Stroud starts cooking early this Sunday afternoon, it will be all hands on deck for the Jaguars, especially for whoever will be on the receiving end for Lawrence. Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones will all face the beatable 25th DVOA against the pass defense on the road in Houston.

Honorable Mention: Nico Collins ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel)

Patriots @ Giants (+3.5) (O/U 33.5)

Probably the most vile of the weekend, the Giants and Pats will offer slim-to-none interest for DFS other than defense rostering. New York doesn’t get too excited for your hometown hero Tommy Devito, future Hall-of-Fame coach Bill Belichick is in town to do what he does best, expose rookie quarterbacks. However, the Pats still have not decided what direction they’re heading themselves at quarterback, as we may not know until kickoff. Big Blue’s defense offers us another path for DFS, I’m just not too sold on the price for a 3 – 8 team.

With a roster including guys like Adoree Jackson and a rushing defense that allows 135 yards/game, it’s tough to trust the Giants to hold down the home field. I’d rather invest in Rhamondre Stevenson and Demario Douglas no matter who is under center for the Patriots.

Bucs @ Colts (-2.5) (O/U 44.5)

I’m in and sold for this game to shoot out also. Whether you’re eyeing to pay down at quarterback or pay up at receiver, all the options lie in a dome in Indianapolis. Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans or Gardner Minshew to Josh Downs, just pick your poison in tournament formats, especially at quarterback. The Colts and Bucs have been beaten like red-headed stepsons over the season, with Tampa now averaging 270 passing yards allowed per game.

The Colts have also forgotten to stop the run, allowing just under 130 yards per game to running backs, with 12 rushing touchdowns. Rachaad White owns the entire backfield for the Bucs and should have a busy day while offering a mid-range option to smash at running back.

Saints @ Falcons (+1.5) (O/U 41.5)

This NFC South divisional game has me a little gun-shy about pulling the trigger for DFS. The Saints and Falcons each want to run the ball, yet both are fully capable of stopping it by allowing just over 100 yards per game. It’ll be a game relies upon the quarterbacks, whereas New Orleans has given the green light for Derek Carr to return to the lineup and Desmond Ridder to return from the bench to the start, but can’t be trusted.

Let’s dive into who’ll be in line to catch the back for Carr, whose mid-range price is tempting. Michael Thomas’ IR designation has earned Chris Olave the bulk of the job, and who knows about Alvin Kamara possibly getting even more looks from Captain Checkdown. However the salaries are not affordable, I’m leaning more towards A.T. Perry ($3,200 DraftKings/$ 4,700 FanDuel) as a spot for cap space relief. The rookie played 84% of the snaps last week and landed in the endzone for almost 12 fantasy points.

As for Atlanta, I’m only interested in the tight end position since the Saints continue to ignore the position on defense. Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith will see coverage that is 28th in DVOA to opposing tight ends. Nothing against second-year stud Drake London, I think he’s super cheap for a defacto WR1, I feel he’ll face a ton of Marshon Lattimore and his quarterback may struggle to feed him the ball.

Update: Marshon Lattimore is OUT

Browns @ Broncos (-1.5) (O/U 36)

Another low-balled total here where my mind drifts towards defenses and running backs instantly. Dorian Thompson-Robinson will see his second start of his rookie campaign against a Broncos’ defense that has significantly improved since their 70-point shellacking by the Dolphins. Expect a ton of Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt against a Broncos’ run defense that still lurks in the gutter (32nd in DVOA).

The Browns have also come on strong defensively led by All-Pros Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, allowing just 140 air yards with only 99 rushing yards per game. I’m hesitant to use anybody in a Bronco uniform for DFS in this matchup.

Rams @ Cardinals (+1.5) (O/U 44.5)

I do backflips in my mind when I see the Cardinals on the slate. Matt Stafford sits in a get-right position for DFS this Sunday along with Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua. Running back Kyren Williams is also expected back from IR after practicing in full all week, expect head coach Shawn McVay to get his guy back on track against an opponent that Williams blew the doors off of in the second half of Week 6 (158 yards/1TD).

The return of Kyler Murray for the Cardinals has given a shot in the arm to the offense, scoring 30 fantasy points in Houston last weekend. LA has been trash themselves covering against the pass, and abandoning opposing tight ends (24th in DVOA). Let it ride with Trey McBride as he continues to fill the stat sheets as one of Murray’s top options.

Chiefs @ Raiders (+8.5) (U/O 43.5)

I can’t remember the last time I saw a Chiefs/Raiders contest with a total this low. Vegas and the public have given up on Pat Mahomes in Week 12 after all the drops from his receivers, while their defense keeps them on top. I anticipate a bounce-back from Kansas City in Vegas’ backyard in front of some of the doubters themselves. All are viable for GPPs this weekend, especially Isaiah Pacheco facing a Raiders’ run defense that has been exploited all year long (132 yards allowed per game).

As I said above, the Chiefs have been lights-out on defense, so careful with drafting any Raiders on Sunday. Consider paying down at the tight end spot using Michael Mayer ($2,800 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel), who’s been targetted five times in his last two games, and finding pay dirt along the way.

Bills @ Eagles (-3) (O/U 48.5)

The Main Event of the slate is in full effect for the Phila area once again. Fresh off their Monday Night victory on the road against the defending champs, the Eagles look to put the league on notice by defeating another AFC juggernaut in the Buffalo Bills. Having the highest total on the slate, expect most of the field to make their way over to this matchup. Start your Eagles and Bills, the analysis is cut and dry so there’s no need to overthink it here.

Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen will be your payups at quarterback, and A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs will be the late hammers at wideout. Dalton Kincaid has broken out at tight end officially in his rookie year and will be in a smash spot against an Eagles defense that leaves the middle of the field wide open for targets (28th in DVOA to tight ends). Running back D’Andre Swift has reemerged on the scene and established himself in Phila as their lead back. A great value for the highest total on the board facing a Bills’ defense that has been abused by a pass-catching running back, allowing nine receptions with two touchdowns in their last two games.

Cash Core

• Jalen Hurts/Josh Allen
• Isaiah Pacheco
• Josh Downs
• Trey McBride

GPP Core

• Pat Mahomes
• Derrick Henry
• Kyle Pitt
• Mike Evans

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 12. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass and get your first 7 days free here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

Welcome back for another round of DFS, hope everyone profited last weekend. The Houston Texans continue to line the pockets of all their believers, as the matchup between the Bengals became a money-making shoot-out of the slate.

Week Ten was loaded with some ugly totals, yet we were still able to clean up in DFS. We were all over the slate with the top players from each contest, including underpriced studs like Trey McBride and Mike Evans.
Week Eleven will feature 11 games of some decent totals. The Giants, Cardinals, and Panthers are back this weekend to pick on, with a few late games to stack on that could lead to some back-and-forth action. As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Sunday Main Slate 11/19/23

Cowboys @ Panthers (+10.5) (O/U 42.5)

Does the Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones have NFL schedule creators on his payroll? They continue to have opponents served up on a silver platter as they take on the 1-9 Panthers this Sunday. Dallas will again take advantage of the matchup to beat up and down Carolina’s lackluster defense (24.9 points allowed/game).
Giddy up with the Dallas offense, including the scorching-hot CeeDee Lamb, who’s caught 34 receptions for 500 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games. Don’t throw in the towel yet on Tony Pollard either. Take advantage of the salary drop against the Panthers’ pin-cushion run defense (31st in the league).

As the Cowboys should light up the scoreboard in Carolina, the Panthers will be playing from behind once more. The veteran Adam Thielen has been rookie Bryce Young’s safety valve all season, but the cost is now through the roof. Consider cheaper options like Jonathon Mingo and DJ Chark as punt plays at receiver in a negative game script.
mid this game does get out of hand, guys like Brandin Cooks, Jake Fergusen, and Michael Gallup could also be beneficiaries of another Dallas walk-thru-the-park NFL weekend.

Raiders @ Dolphins (-12) (O/U 46.5)

Miami returns home from an embarrassing loss to the Chiefs in Germany and sitting in the best possible bounce-back situation hosting the Raiders. Tua to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be expected, but the Dolphins anticipate reactivating DeVon Achane from IR this weekend as well. But as Dynamic as Achane has been, it would be tough to pay up for him at running back after the long layoff from a knee injury.

it was a breath of fresh air to finally see Vegas force-feed the ball to Devante Adams last game (6 REC/ 86 YDS on 13 Targets). The Raiders will ride the hot hand, winners of two straight games after the firing of head coach Josh McDaniels, and continue to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers like Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs.

Bears @ Lions (-9.5) (O/U 47)

Now we’re cooking with grease. We love Detroit on the slate, especially against a Bears who will regain their starting quarterback of Justin Fields. Chicago may put up a fight in this spot with Fields back under center, giving us a little shootout potential in a weather-proof indoor contest.

The return of Fields rejuvenates fantasy relevance back into the offense such as DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Both have taken a nose dive during his absence and now that their salaries have taken a hit, I’m back in the mix with the Bears’ offense for DFS.
Detroit continues to be at the top of the charts for DFS for cash games and tournaments. From Jared Goff at home, averaging well over 23 fantasy points per game, Amon-Ra as his go-to guy closing in on 1,000 yards already this season (821), and the one-two punch backfield of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs (combined for 193 YDS and 3TDS in Week 10).

Cardinals @ Texans (-4) (O/U 47.5)

Can the matchup get any juicer for the potential rookie of the year CJ Stroud? Marco Wilson and the Arizona secondary will have their work cut out for them this weekend as Stroud’s receiving core will be back at full strength with starter Nico Collins returning to the lineup. (Not that it matters as Stroud has made guys off the street fantasy viable…just ask Noah Brown).

As bad as the dumpster-fire defense of the Cardinals is, the return of Kyler Murray has given some hope for the offense for the rest of the season. 18 fantasy points are respectable for a running quarterback’s first game back from an ACL injury, and tight end Trey McBride was his biggest cheerleader. McBride had instant chemistry with Murray, catching eight of nine targets for 131 yards. Expect more of the McBride breakout in Houston, as they’re 26th in DVOA to opposing tight ends.

Steelers @ Browns (-4) (O/U 36.5)

This AFC North battle may set the clocks of the NFL back 60 years to the days of leather helmets. The Browns and Steelers could rely heavily on their running attack, as we know by now quarterback Deshaun Watson had season-ending surgery on his shoulder and Kenny Pickett stinks at football. The Browns have named rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($4,500 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) as their starter, who had a decent preseason and could be a value if he manages to scramble for some rushing yardage against a beatable Steelers’ run defense (22nd in DVOA).
All four backs of Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, Najee Harris, and Jalen Warren should see plenty of volume as the play-calling may lean heavily on each team’s running game and hide their quarterbacks. Pick your poison for a $5K RB on DraftKings and pair with either of their defenses, who feature the likes of Myles Garrett and TJ Watt awaiting for sack and fumble opportunities.

Titans @ Jaguars (-6.5) (O/U 39.5)

Trevor Lawrence has taken a few steps back this season compared to where he was last season, but he now has the perfect storm to make amends with fantasy managers this week against a Titans’ passing-funnel defense. He’s mid-range priced on the slate and offers some feeling of comfort with the matchup and previous performances last season. Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley have smash spots across from cornerbacks Fulton and McCreary, and we may even see a return of Zay Jones to feast after a long stay on the injured list.

Now Tennessee will also get a dose of their own medicine against Jacksonville’s run-stopping defense. Will the rookie Will Levis return to his debut self against a Jaguars pass funnel? That remains to be seen, but we all know where the ball is going… to DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry. All three will look to bounce back from a craptastic game out in Tampa, so a roster of any Titans would be a sneaky play in GPPs.

Giants @ Commanders (-9.5) (O/U 37.5)

Pump the brakes here in this one guys, don’t be rushing to draft too many Commanders against the pitiful Giants’ defense. It’s a divisional game where New York held Washington to only seven points. But with the departure of pressure from Leonard Williams and the atrocious coverage of Adoree Jackson and Diontae Banks, we can predict Washington to get some revenge.
Start all your Commanders, especially Terry McLaurin who leads the team in targets (75), and a Brian Robinson-led backfield who will be missing Antonio Gibson from a toe injury.
As for New York well, if you believe in Tommy Devito, then fire away on a $3,500 on DraftKings Wan’dale Robinson against the third-worst secondary in the league. Robinson will roam the middle of the field and live in the slot, where Devito has been successful on completions.

Chargers @ Packers (+3) (O/U 44.5)

If only Jordan Love were a competent quarterback this total would be over 50 against LA. But let’s make some lemonade out of a few of these lemons. The Packers’ best weapon is Aaron Jones, and now that his salary has dropped I’m in with him facing the Chargers’ bottom-five run defense. Rookie receivers Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have seen eight targets each in their last two contests combined. Consider them in DFS for some cap space savers and dart throws in GPPs as they have formed some chemistry with Jordan Love.

The Chargers will battle the injury bug yet again this weekend with even more receivers hitting the injury list, including leader Keenan Allen. With Gerald Everett already being ruled out and Jalen Guyton listed as questionable, They’ll have to utilize Austin Ekeler again. The Chargers continue to use the hybrid as a receiver as much as a running back, scoring over 20 fantasy points in his last three games. Also, consider Chargers tight end Donald Parham to inherit the bulk of the snap share from the injured Everett with his 6’8” body frame.

Bucs @ Niners (-11.5) (U/O 41.5)

The Niners at 100 percent capacity should steamroll their competitors yet again at home. Key pieces like Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel have proven to make a difference in last week’s annihilation of Jacksonville. Get your share of the offense this weekend as they face a Bucs secondary that has been a dumpster fire and is two weeks removed from the rookie CJ Stroud throwing for 470 yards and five touchdowns.

The Bucs stop here, except for Mike Evans, whose been the centerpiece of the Tampa Bay offense. San Fransisco’s secondary has been exploitable throughout the season, allowing just over 220 yards per game (25th in DVOA to receivers), but it’s hard to trust Baker Mayfield on the road against this hungry Niners defense. It’s Mike Evans or bust for me for Tampa, catching for over 450 yards and three touchdowns in his last four games.

Jets @ Bills (-7) (O/U 40.5)

Two AFC East teams struggling at both ends of the football meet-up in Buffalo, and I’m not too thrilled about it for DFS. Josh Allen has not been able to take care of the football, throwing picks since Week 5, and Zach Wilson has still been a deer in headlights under center. Rostering any either offensive player carries a huge risk, especially at their high salaries, consider using the Bills’ or Jets’ DSTs for DFS, with Gang Green giving a discount at only $2,600 on Draftkings.

Seahawks @ Rams (+1) (U/O 46)

To wrap up the slate we have a tasty NFC West matchup indoors that gives us an impression of some back-and-forth action for NFL DFS, an aspect we love to stack on in GPPs. Both secondaries have been toasted by their opponents over the past two weeks, and with Matt Stafford two weeks removed from his injury, we should see some fireworks.

Geno Smith had his first big game of the year throwing for 369 yards and two scores, but he may be without Tyler Lockett due to an injury this week. Great news for DK Metcalf and the rookie Jaxson Smith-Njigba to see an uptick in volume. Running back Kenneth Walker would also be in play as the clear bell-cow for Seattle.

Stafford at full health can breathe life into the Rams’ offense, with hopes of getting Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua back into full throttle. Back in Week One, we saw the Puca breakout (10REC/119YDS), minus Kupp while on IR. We should see a similar production game again as the Rams look to stay in contention for a playoff berth.

Cash Core

• Geno Smith
• Terry McLaurin
• Trey McBride
• Aaron Jones

GPP Core

• Tony Pollard
• Trevor Lawrence
• Mike Evans
• Donald Parham

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 11. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass and get your first 7 days free here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!