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NFL DFS

NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 16

Joe DiCarlo 1 year ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Happy Holidays WinDaily family, and welcome to Week 16! Let’s stuff our stockings with some green from DFS this Christmas Eve, and crush this nine-game slate. This season has been a roller coaster loaded with injuries and break-out performances. So at this point, we all should have a good feel for the league by now on which teams to target to pass the pay lines. Now let’s get down to business, we have a decent amount of forty-plus totals with a fifty-pointer to cap it off. On to the breakdown, and again Happy Holidays everybody! As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Sunday Main Slate 12/24/23

Lions @ Vikings (+3) (U/O 47.5)

A smash spot for DFS on the slate. Two NFC North rivals will slug it out indoors as the Lions look to lock up the division and Minnesota fights for a Wild Card spot. It’s open season on every position, especially for guys like Jared Goff fresh off a five-touchdown performance, and rookie tight end Sam La Porta, who’s caught five from Goff in his last four games. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery will also be in the mix.

As hot as Detroit has been on the scoreboard, its defense has been shaky as of late, allowing close to an average of 30 points per game since Week 10. Quarterback Nick Mullens may be in line for another quality start at home, and so could his teammates Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson. There are no wrong decisions made for DFS here in this match-up, so pick your poison.

Seahawks @ Titans (+3.5) (O/U 41.5)

Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith doesn’t have an injury designation going into the weekend, but will he play? You just never know in this league, we could see another Drew Lock game on the schedule, not that it matters against the Titans’ secondary who rank 27th in DVOA against the pass. Get your shares of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba for your lineups, and watch them light it up. The Seahawks have plenty to play for and need a dub to stay in the playoff race.

Tennessee, on the other hand, may be on its way out the door for 2023. Not only have they been atrocious on defense, but quarterback Will Levis is pretty banged up and Derrick Henry may have hit rock bottom, who averaged less than two yards per carry against Houston. The only game that remains in town for the Titans is DeAndre Hopkins. In 14 games he’s been targeted 115 times, so even if Ryan Tannehill takes over again at QB, expect Hopkins to see most of the volume.

Browns @ Texans (+3) (O/U 40)

Don’t be steered away by the low total, because there’s a fantasy goldmine in this contest. The Browns have catapulted themselves back into the playoff race, thanks to the veteran Joe Flacco. He’s thrown for well over 300 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games, yet DraftKings has him only at $5,500. If you’re sold on Flacco, consider pairing him with tight-end David Njoku, who’s been in my breakdown for numerous weeks because of the upside. Njoku has scored 27 and 29 DK fantasy points in back-to-back games.

But for Houston, well it’s a shame to say that without CJ Stroud snapping the football, it will be an uphill battle. Case Keenum will get the nod once again, and Nico Collins is still less than 100 percent. It’s a hard fade on Texans, especially against a Browns defense that has forced seven turnovers in their last two games.

Commanders @ Jets (-3) (O/U 37)

Both teams will enter the Meadowlands with nothing but bragging rights to play for this weekend, so be mindful of using any of these guys for DFS. The matchup is delicious for Garrett Wilson and fellow Jets’ receivers, but not only are the Jets out of the playoff picture, New York is starting Trevor Siemian. Trevor has coughed the ball up four times with no touchdowns in two games in relief this season.

Even though Washington is also looking from the outside in at 5-11, Sam Howell has been the face of the franchise. The Jets are pretty stingy against opposing quarterbacks (2nd in DVOA) but with Sam’s track record of throwing for well over 300 yards per game (5 games), he’ll be a nice dart for GPPs. Wide receivers in play will be the usual, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson. GPPs only.

Colts @ Falcons (-2.5) (O/U 44.5)

Both teams here are fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt, so expect the starters out there. It’ll be indoors, away from Mother Nature, which will help each team. Atlanta especially since coach Arthur Smith can’t make up his mind on who to start or sit all year, throwing a monkey wrench in lineups every week.

We watched Bijan Robinson get benched last week after he fumbled deep in Atlanta’s territory. But the weather played a part in Carolina, and the coaching staff decided to make adjustments. Robinson’s ownership will plummet this weekend after his recent performance, yet he is still the best player for the Falcons. Use him in tournaments, for the discount in salary and separation from the field against a Colts’ defense that has allowed 16 total touchdowns to running backs on the season.

On the Colts’ side, we’ll see Jonathon Taylor back from a thumb injury at running back. But if Zack Moss gets cleared to play, he could eat into Taylor’s volume, so keep an eye on Moss‘ status. Michael Pittman cleared protocol, but still has that questionable tag. If he suits up, he’s playable, as Pittman Jr. is the prize horse in the stable at receiver for Indianapolis. Pittman has scored heavy, double-digit fantasy points in 13 of 15 games this season.

@insidious.cc
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Packers @ Panthers (+5) (O/U 37.5)

Green Bay lands in Carolina looking to keep their slim playoff hopes afloat against a mailed-in 2-12 Panthers team that’s ready to pack it in for 2023. But quarterback Jordan Love has a receiving core that’s been battling injuries week to week, so he may have a skeleton crew at kickoff. Christian Watson is doubtful, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are questionable, AJ Dillon may miss Sunday in a cast around his thumb, and Luke Musgrave still can’t suit up after being removed from IR. Aaron Jones and Tucker Kraft enter the weekend as the only healthy options for Love going into the weekend.

The Panthers have handed over the keys to second-year running back Chuba Hubbard to close out the year. Hubbard has seen 20-plus touches since Week 13, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all three games. He’ll face a Packers’ run defense that averages 138 yards per game, so at $5,700 on DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel, he’s a lock across all formats.

Jaguars @ Bucs (-3) (O/U 40.5)

We enter the evening part of the slate in sunny Florida, as the Jaguars and Bucs aim to remain as division leaders in a must-win for both teams. But Jacksonville will be severely compromised due to injuries, especially if Trevor Lawrence cannot clear his concussion protocol. The Bucs however, are on cloud nine thanks to a rejuvenated Baker Mayfield. He’s been electrifying, throwing for 381 yards and four touchdowns in the win against Green Bay.

If it is CJ Beatherd who gets the nod for Jacksonville, he’ll be able to throw it easily against the Bucs’ soft 28th-ranked secondary. I’d keep him in tournaments though, but the lock stock passing options of Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram can be used in cash games as well.

The Jags are a passing funnel as well, so Baker should have no problem getting the ball to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Cade Otton. Otton would be a great sleeper at tight end, Jacksonville is currently ranked 29th in the league defending the position.

Cardinals @ Bears (-4) (O/U 43)

Here will see two NFC teams slug it out in the windy city, Arizona already being eliminated from the playoffs and Chicago dangling on by a thread, needing a substantial amount of help across the NFC to sneak in. Points will be on the scoreboard for DFS, as both Kyler Murray and Justin FIelds look to hold onto their jobs before ownership decides to draft the position in 2024.

Arizona has been unable to stop a nosebleed on defense all year long, so Bears players will be popular this weekend. Along with Fields, play his right-hand man DJ Moore along with whoever you decide on in the Bears’ backfield. D’Onta Foreman could miss the game due to personal reasons, which would allow a clearer path at running back with Rochon Johnson or Khalil Herbert. Tight end Cole Kmet also enters the weekend questionable, if he can’t suit up, Robert Tonyan will make a nice punt in GPPs.

Kyler Murray has had one guy locked in his sights since his return from IR this season, with the chemistry building from week to week. Tight end Trey McBride has become the Cardinals’ top receiving option in 2023, leading the team in receptions with 66. Chicago has improved on the defensive side of the ball, but they are still 28th in the league defending tight ends.

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Cowboys @ Dolphins (-1) (O/U 50)

To end the slate, we get the main event in Miami. The Dolphins and Cowboys have a lot at stake, as both teams look to secure first place in each of their divisions. Miami will be back to full strength getting back Tyreek Hill and the Cowboys will be out for blood after taking a beating up in Buffalo last week.

Expect fireworks in this game, with two teams fully weaponized in a 50-point total, we could see some back-and-forth action as both teams are capable of the task. Everybody is in the mix, but their salaries are through the roof. Some cheap exposure to the game may be a path to consider. Guys like Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks for example, but studs like Raheem Mostert and CeeDee Lamb should not be overlooked.

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 16. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

1 year ago 0 comments

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NFL Week 16 Saturday Slate

Ivan Herrera 1 year ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the first Saturday slate of the NFL season. Both games on the slate have playoff implications so expect the three teams fighting for a playoff spot to treat this game as a do-or-die situation.

The purpose of this article is to break down the best plays both on the DFS and betting sides. The article will include my favorite plays and honorable mentions for every DFS position. You can also find my favorite bets under Drago’s Best Bets section at the end of the article.

The QBs:

Josh Allen ($8100DK, $7800FD)

Starting with the best QB on the slate, Allen is very much in play on Saturday. This is a do-or-die game for the Bills, as a win can get them into a wildcard spot going into the final two games of the year. Stix’s model has Allen as the highest scorer on the slate, and after what rookie Aidan O’Connell did to the Chargers defense, I wouldn’t put it past Allen to have his best DFS performance of the season. LAC ranks as the 27th-ranked team against fantasy QBs and has given up an average of 17.7 points to opposing QBs over the last five weeks. Being projected at over 50% ownership, Allen is better in SE and 3max entries, along with the next QB on the list.

Who to pair him with: Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid

Jake Browning ($6100DK, $7000FD)

Browning is the second-highest-owned and priced QB on the slate. He has been nothing but productive since taking over the starting role from the injured Burrow. He has put up three straight games of over 20 points on DraftKings (just missed on FanDuel last week by.04 points) and has a chance to make up for his worse start this season, where he struggled in his first game against the Steelers. The Bengals currently hold the 6th seed in the conference but are in a four-way tie and have Pittsburgh and Denver just one game behind them.

Who to pair him with: Tee Higgins, Tanner Hudson

Honorable Mentions: None

The RBs:

James Cook ($6900DK, $7500FD)

Cook is the highest projected scoring RB on the slate after having his best two games of the season over the last two weeks. Cook has been one of the better RBs over the past five weeks, seeing 5.4 more touches per game in that span than he did in the first nine weeks of the season. And just like his QB, Cook gets the best matchup on the slate, as the Chargers are also 27th against fantasy RBs.

Austin Ekeler ($7200DK,

Ekeler is the highest priced RB on DraftKings, which isn’t great, so I would rather play him more on FanDuel, where he is $1500 and $1700 less than Mixon and Cook. Over the past five weeks, Ekeler has been bad, as he has only hit double-digit fantasy points in one game. The matchup against the Bills strong rush defense isn’t ideal, but Ekeler has been getting work in the passing game, averaging five targets over the last five. With Stick once again being the QB for the Chargers, expect Ekeler to have more than just the nine touches he had last week.

Honorable Mentions: Joe Mixon, Najee Harris.

The WRs:

Tee Higgins ($6500DK, 8100FD)

No Chase, no problem. Higgins two touchdowns last Saturday helped lead the Bengals over the Vikings. Higgins is second in targets per game for the Bengals, with 6.6 per game. That number should increase with Chase missing the game. His price on both sites not increasing too much makes him a great partner for the next WR on the list, who is $1100 and $2200 more on FD and DK.

Stefon Diggs ($8700DK, $7900FD)

Being priced 2.2K more than the second highest WR on the slate on DK makes him less desirable, but he is still a great play as the Chargers can’t stop anyone at this point. Stix’s model has Diggs as the best WR and the second-best player overall on the slate. Diggs is currently projected at over 65% ownership, so I am fine with fading him if you want to go against the field in SE.

Joshua Palmer ($5000DK,

Palmer was one of the only bright spots in what was a terrible Chargers game on Thursday night. He finished with 24.3 points on DraftKings and 19.3 on FD. With Allen once again being ruled out, Palmer will be the main target for Stick, who didn’t look great. The Bills should be up all game, so the script should call for a lot of passing from the Chargers, and Palmer will greatly benefit from it.

Honorable Mentions: Tyler Boyd. Diontae Johnson. George Pickens.

The TEs

Gerald Everett ($3,500 DK, $6800 FD)

My favorite value play on the slate. Just like Palmer, Everett should benefit from the lack of Allen once again. Over the past four games, he has had at least four catches and 39 yards per game. He is very cheap and should be one of the most targeted TEs on the small slate.

Honorable Mentions: Pat Freiermuth. Dalton Kincaid. Tanner Hudson

Drago’s Best Bets:

Bengals -3.5
Joe Mixon Any Time Touchdown
James Cook Any Time Touchdown
Stefon Diggs Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at h ttps://windailysports.com/nfl/

1 year ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Fifteen

Dave Gloeckner 1 year ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Another week with two solid wins and two not so good results. The Chargers losing Justin Herbert to a finger injury obviously put us in a precarious position. But fading the public in Atlanta was our biggest edge and it resulted in an outright upset win for Tampa. With four solid weeks of football left, we’re heading towards the finish line of a profitable NFL season. Hitting at 58% and up 7.5 units to date is a good season. But of course, we want more!

The books had a profitable week in Week 14. The dogs went 9-5-1 and the public went 5-9-1. The biggest wins came on Monday night as two underdogs won outright in NYG and Tennessee.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 34-25 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 15

MIAMI DOLPHINS -8 vs NY JETS

A lot of this hinges on the ankle of Tyreek Hill. So I’m waiting out the news on his status before I jump fully on this game. If he’s out, and we can find a number under 7, then I’m still going to back Miami.

But the main reason I like Miami this week is because of their running game and the Jets porous rush defense. On the one hand, the Jets allow the 5th most rushing yards per game at 131.8. They are also 15th in rushing defense DVOA. As for Miami, they are 2nd in rushing offense DVOA and have the 2nd most rushing yards in the league. They also average the highest yards per carry at 5.3. They do not have to pass the ball heavily to dominate the game today. And with Achane (questionable), Mostert and Wilson, they have enough carriers to stay fresh and execute a run heavy game plan.

Lastly, the Dolphins are 3-0 after a loss and have won by an average of 12.5 points per game.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS+6.5 at LA RAMS

This bet is a story of two teams that come into this game with two distinctly different rest situations. The Commanders are coming off a bye week and haven’t played in 14 days. The Rams are coming off an OT game in Baltimore, which was played 3000+ miles from their home. Additionally, outside of a 4th quarter collapse in Dallas, Washington is much better on the road. They are 3-4 SU away from home (1-5 SU at home) and 5-2 ATS on the road. As for the Rams, they are 3-3 SU at home with their wins coming against Josh Dobbs (Arizona), Joe Flacco (Cleveland), and Geno Smith/Drew Lock (Seattle). The latter came on a Seahawks missed FG.

Point here is the Rams are in competition for a playoff spot but have had a tough travel routine of late while Washington is coming in fresh and plays better on the road. The public is also backing the Rams with 63% of the tickets and 58% of the money on LA.

TAMPA BAY BUCS +3.5 at GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers looked to have turned the corner but played complacent last week and ended up waking up too late to salvage a win in NY against the Giants. Now they’re behind the 8-ball again and will need to find a way to get started quickly today against Tampa.

But it’s a short week and Green Bay doesn’t run away from teams. They have played five straight one-score games coming into today. Additionally, Tampa is also a better road team than they are at home. The Bucs are now 5-2 ATS (3-4 SU) on the road and have a +16 point differential. I like the hook and believe Tampa’s running offense will keep them in the game long enough to potentially pull off the upset.

BUFFALO BILLS -2 vs DALLAS COWBOYS

We have an awesome game today sitting in the 4pm slot. The Buffalo Bills have won two straight games and are looking like the team everyone thought they were at the beginning of the season. As for Dallas, they got their first win against an opponent with a winning record last week by dominating the Philadelphia Eagles. And that has now enlightened the public bettors as they have flocked to the window to back the team with a star on their helmet. As of this writing 74% of the money and 80% of the bets are on the Cowboys. Yet, Vegas hasn’t moved this line more than 0.5 points all week.

I still think Dallas has issues in tight situations. They have proven they can win blowouts but Dallas is just 2-1 in games decided by six points or less. On the other hand, the Bills have played nine games decided by six points or less. If this game is close late, I’ll take the team in Buffalo that has played over 68% of their games that are defined in the clutch. Plus, Buffalo’s weakness is their run defense and Dallas is just 16th in rushing offense DVOA.

BONUS BET: KANSAS CITY -2 / SAN FRAN -6

With most Survivor Leagues over, let’s add a fun bet to today’s card. If you do have a survivor pick left, the Rams and Falcons would be ideal (unless you still have KC or Miami left).

I don’t often play teasers but today we have an opportunity to grab two of the best teams in the league against two of the worst. Additionally, we can get under two key numbers (3 and 7) which is what you should always look for in the teaser market.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

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Daily Fantasy Sports NFL Football Premium

NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 15

Joe DiCarlo 1 year ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Welcome back for another week of the Main Slate Breakdown, where we dissect each game in the afternoon and determine who to target for DFS. Only a ten-gamer for Sunday, but some of which will contain totals in the high-forties, and low fifties. As the playoff picture begins to come into focus in Week 15, some teams will have more incentive to win as opposed to others, who may be looking forward to the draft.

We’ve been on point all season with our decisions, so let’s stay on track for cash games and get a little different for tournaments. As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Sunday Main Slate 12/17/23

Chiefs @ Patriots (+7.5) (O/U 37)

Two teams struggling on the offensive side of the ball will battle it out in the Boston area. The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes has nobody else to catch the football other than Kelce while the Patriots have been playing the hot hand at quarterback all year long. Their defenses and ability to run the ball have kept them both in contests, especially for Kansas City as they barely hang on to the AFC West Division.

Both teams however will be without their starting running backs, as Isaiah Pacheco will miss some time after shoulder surgery and Rhamondre Stevenson is out his second straight game with an ankle. I am focussing all my attention on Ezekiel Elliott ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) in this match-up. He’s at a great price for a three-down back (91% snap rate in Week 14) and should continue to see a ton of volume in the passing game (7 REC/72 YDS/1 TD last week) because of the Pats’ lack of talent at quarterback.

Honorable Mentions: Demario Douglas, Rashee Rice

Jets @ Dolphins (-9.5) (O/U 37)

We’ve got an AFC East rematch of the recent Black Friday blowout at the Meadowlands, but this time in sunny Miami. Zach Wilson is back under center for the Jets, who played with a chip on his shoulder in the win against Houston last week. The Dolphins suffered one of their most embarrassing losses in franchise history, losing a two-touchdown lead with three minutes left against Tennessee.

The game’s centerpiece enters the weekend questionable in Tyreek Hill, who clearly is the engine in the offense for Miami. If he’s out, we’ll see a ton of Raheem Mostert ($7,100 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) again. Head Coach Mike McDaniel should focus more on the run game in order to keep his quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out of trouble, and the Jets have recently given up well over 150 yards rushing in their last meeting. If De’Von Achane doesn’t suit up, Mostert will be even more enticing.

As for Gang Green, it’s been the Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall show. Wilson has been top-five in the league in target share and routes run, and Breece is second in the league in targets and receptions to running backs. They’re both priced modestly but keep them in tournaments. The Jets DST ($2,500 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) would be a great play as a defense especially if Tyreek Hill is out, so keep an eye on his status.

Giants @ Saints (-6) (O/U 39)

The Saints welcome the red-hot Giants into New Orleans this weekend, looking to keep their hopes alive in the NFC South. New York, winners of three straight, are still in the hunt for a Wild Card berth but will need some help from other teams. I’m not getting any fantasy vibes out of this contest, but let’s dive in to see where we can find some low-ownership plays.

New Orleans may be without top receiving option Chris Olave due to a bad ankle, if he’s out Rashid Shaheed will have a larger role this weekend, along with running back Alvin Kamara and tight end Taysom Hill seeing an uptick in opportunity. New York has spilled fantasy value to every opposing position all year long.

Big Blue, winners of three straight, have been riding the coattails of its hometown hero Tommy DeVito and his efficiency at quarterback, refusing to turn the ball over. On the road against the 6th DVOA to opposing quarterbacks will be tough to swallow for DFS managers even at his low price tag. Keep him in tournaments, but Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,700 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) has emerged once again as the alpha receiver for the Giants. Robinson put up 17 FPTS. last weekend (6 REC/79 YDS/36 YDS RUSH), at his pricetag he can be safely relied on for cash.

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley

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Bears @ Browns (-3) (O/U 38.5)

We’ve got another low total, as the Bears and Justin Fields look to keep the win streak alive on the road against a tough Cleveland defense. The Browns are currently ranked fifth in the playoff picture, thanks to their defense and their veteran presence at quarterback of Joe Flacco. But there’s rain in the forecast, which may slow down the passing in this contest.

Fields did well last week, scoring over 24 FPTS. on committing zero turnovers with two total touchdowns. He’ll be playing for his job once again, but on the road in the rain, against this Browns’ defense, I can’t afford the risk of his salary in cash for him in DFS.

Chicago has stepped it up on defense with the addition of Montez Sweat, so I don’t see Cleveland running all over them. So I’d be a little cautious with Flacco this week, but tight end David Njoku ($4,700 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) should be a pillar for DFS this weekend at the position. He’ll look to replicate his best performance of the season after he racked up 91 yards on six receptions, scoring on two of them. Njoku is a lock for cash and tournaments.

Falcons @ Panthers (+3) (O/U 33.5)

A super-low total in an NFC South match-up where the Falcons look to stay in their playoff/divisional contention while the Carolina Panthers continue to spiral down the ladder of irrelevancy for 2023. With two unreliable quarterbacks Desmond Ridder and Bryce Young set to play in another weather-compromising game, It’s best to default to their defenses and running games, while fading their air attacks.

The Atlanta DST($3,600 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) and Carolina DST($2,800 DraftKings/$3,300 FanDuel) make a ton of sense, and stacking with a running back from either side could be even better. Bijan Robinson ($6,800 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) and Chuba Hubbard ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) are both in great matchups and may see extra carries if the weather does get out of hand.

Bucs @ Packers (-3.5) (O/U 42.5)

The first-place Bucs visit Lambeau Field to take on a Packers team that is on the outside looking into the playoffs. Tampa has maintained a solid core of offense, primarily made up of Mike Evans and Rachaad White. The Packers have lived and died from the sword of Jordan Love this season, who’s been a two-face for fantasy.

Green Bay has been hammered all year by opposing backs, most recently from the likes of Saquon Barkley and Isaiah Pacheco. Rachaad White ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) will walk onto the field Sunday against the 25th-ranked run defense, a great matchup for a volume back that holds an 80% snap rate for Tampa.

Tampa on the other hand, has been abused through the passing game, as their corners cannot keep up with anyone who lines up across the field from them. But the Packers will be without Christian Watson, one of their top receivers yet again. Both running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon also enter the game questionable. The Packers will need a lot of help on offense from Jayden Reed ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) one more time, as he is clearly Jordan Love’s now number-one option. Reed caught eight targets on Monday night, as well as rushing for 38 yards and a touchdown against the Giants, and will force head coach La Fleur to draw up more plays for the rookie.

Honorable Mention: Tucker Kraft

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Jayden reed long rushing td #nfl #packers #fyp
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Texans @ Titans (-3) (O/U 37)

A clash in the AFC South is showing a pretty low total yet we may find some value in a few spots here for DFS. Both teams will be fighting to stay in the playoff hunt, one team will be led by a feisty rookie, another by a seasoned veteran. It has been confirmed, there has been a Case Keenum sighting in Tennessee.

The Texans will be without their rookie phenom C.J. Stroud from a concussion he suffered last weekend, so if you’re looking to get different and save a ton a quarterback, go ahead and take Case Keenum ($4,000 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) against the Titans’ pass-funnel defense. But the receiving core for Houston will be in shambles, so keep an eye on injury reports for Noah Brown and Nico Collins. A naked Keenum may be a bad idea if his weapons are on the bench, so beware.

The Titans are fresh off one of their best comebacks in franchise history courtesy of a Dolphin disasterous fourth quarter. Quarterback rookie Will Levis ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) showed a lot of passion and will look to keep the momentum going against the 26th DVOA pass defense most recently carved up by Zach Wilson. Pair him up with DeAndre Hopkins ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) or Chig Okonkwo ($2,900 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) for extra value with a ton of upside.

Honorable Mention: Dalton Schultz, Derrick Henry

Commanders @ Rams (-6.5) (O/U 50.5)

Now we’re talking, a 50-burger total. Rightfully so, because the Commanders are back from a bye week and ready to get back to business on the field, allowing touchdowns and yardage. LA is fighting tooth and nail for a Wild Card spot, while Washington at 4-9 is looking to gather face and pick up the pieces for next season.

LA is stacked at every position, from running back Kyren Williams to the double-decker combo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, along with Matt Stafford it’s a flashing green light for any Rams of your choice for DFS against one of the worst-ranked defenses in town.

Onto the Commanders, as bad as they are spewing points away, quarterback Sam Howell ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) keeps opposing teams honest by chucking the football. The second-year gunslinger has racked up over 3,400 yards with 18 touchdowns this season.

Honorable Mention: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin

Niners @ Cardinals (+12) (O/U 47.5)

Another banger close to a 50-point total featuring a studly NFC West matchup indoors in the desert. The Niners look to gain full control of the conference and Kyler Murray continues to fight for employment in the NFL, plenty on the line for either side. A great game to stack in a GPP in my opinion, due to some of the value and firepower on both teams.

San Fran is running on all cylinders and appears to be the front-runner for a Super Bowl run. Brock Purdy returns to his home state in Arizona loaded to the teeth with his usual arsenal of weapons (CMC/Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle). Pick your poison with any of the Niner gang, as Arizona has been the whopping post of the NFL since Week One.

The Cardinals have plenty to think of in the offseason, especially at quarterback. Kyler Murray ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) has blown the doors open in his return since IR and will continue to show off his stuff. Trey McBride has emerged as his top targeted option, and if Michael Wilson ($3,300 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) is healthy, he’ll provide some salary relief as well as GPP upside.

Honorable Mention: James Connor

@rethinkreality
Can’t wait to see him come back #nfl #football #nflhighlights #footballhighlights #kylermurray #2021 #fyp
♬ original sound – Kendrick

Cowboys @ Bills (-2) (U/O 50.5)

Finally, the main event of the afternoon slate, another 50-piece total featuring the red-hot Cowboys and a Bills team clawing their way back into playoff contention. Weather may be a concern though, as it could be a soaker in Buffalo. It’s a must-win for both teams, which may go down to the final ticks because of its importance.

It’s pretty much a no-brainer on who to play for Dallas and Buffalo, but more of a matter of who to pay up/pay down for. Josh Allen, naked, makes sense mainly because of his legs. Roll him out as a late-hammer, or stack him with tight end Dalton Kincaid, the rookie who has manhandled the position from Dawson Knox.

Dak Prescott has been Teflon of late, connecting on 11 touchdowns in his last four games, five of which to CeeDee Lamb. But on the road, outdoors in the elements, it may not be worth the risk to pay up for the Dallas air attack in Buffalo. Consider a Tony Pollard ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) or Jake Fergusen ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) in this matchup, who may be in line for some catches in the short-passing game, while not breaking the bank of your salary cap.

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 15. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

1 year ago 0 comments

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NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate

Ivan Herrera 1 year ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the first Saturday slate of the NFL season. All three games on the slate have playoff implications so expect all six teams involved to treat this game as a do-or-die situation.

The QBs:

Russell Wilson ($6000DK, $7800FD)

Starting with everyone’s favorite QB, Wilson is very much in play on Saturday. Wilson has played a huge role in the sudden resurgence of the Broncos. The Broncos need this game to keep pace with the other handful of 7–6 teams in the AFC. Wilson has a great matchup to get the Broncos their seventh win in eight as the Detroit Lions rank 29th against QBs. Since Week 10, the Lions have given up an average of 24.1 fantasy points to opposing QBs.

Who to pair him with: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy

Mitch Trubisky ($5300DK, $7000FD)

On a small slate like this, I don’t mind taking a shot at Trubisky. Trubisky had a solid game against the Patriots in their Thursday night game last week, and this week he gets a beatable Colts pass defense. The game has a decent total of 42.5, which is second on the slate, so I expect points during this game. Stix’s model also has Trubisky as the best-value QB on the slate.

Who to pair him with: Pat Freiermuth. Diontae Johnson

Nick Mullens ($5000DK, $6500FD)

If you thought Trubisky was hard to stomach, I present you with Nick Mullens. Both DraftKings and FanDuel priced him as the cheapest of the six starting QBs. Even if Justin Jefferson is not back from the injury he suffered Sunday against the Raiders, Mullens still has the weapons to cause trouble for a bad Bengals pass defense. Mullens showed some flashes during his time with the Niners, so a successful fantasy game from him on Saturday will not be a shock.

Who to pair him with:TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and KJ Osborn (if Jefferson is out)

Honorable Mentions: Jake Browning.

The RBs:

Jahmyr Gibbs ($6700DK/$7500FD)

His teammate David Montgomery is also in play, but I am going to take the receiving upside with Gibbs. Gibbs averages 4.5 fewer carries than Montgomery but makes up for it by averaging three more receptions per game. Being the better receiver will help Gibbs in this matchup, as the Broncos are giving up 5.3 receptions to opposing RBs per game. The Broncos run defense is bad; they rank 32nd against RBs, so I’m expecting good games from both Gibbs and Montgomery.

Ty Chandler ($5300DK/$6000FD)

With Mattison ruled on for Saturday’s contest against the Bengals, I am in on backup Chandler. Chandler has been an efficient back since taking over the backup role when Cam Akers got hurt for the year. He comes into Saturday averaging just under four yards a carry in his past four games. Similar to Gibbs above, Chandler is a good DFS option thanks to what he can do out of the backfield. He is much more explosive than Mattison, and the Bengals have struggled the last week to contain RBs out of the backfield as they are giving up 7.8 yards per reception to starting RBs over the past two weeks.

Honorable Mentions: Javonte Williams. Zack Moss. Joe Mixon. Jaylen Warren.

The WRs:

Amon-Ra St.Brown ($7900DK, 8100FD)

The Sun God is a great play this Saturday in what might be a must-win for the Lions if the Vikings win earlier in the day. St. Brown is third in the NFL in targets per game at 10.3. He has found a connection with Jared Goff since the former Ram got to Detroit. I am not on the QB because of his recent struggles turning the ball over, but with the number of targets his top WR gets, I am on St.Brown.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($7300DK, $7900FD)

Pittman is Minshew’s best target in the passing game, as the players below him on the depth chart are inconsistent. With the struggles of Downs and Pierce this season, Minshew has had to focus on targeting Pittman. Pittman averages 10.6 targets per game, which puts him second in the NFL, only behind LAC’s Allen with 11.5. He has seen double-digit targets in the last four games and five of his last six. This game will be a 7-6 AFC Wildcard, so expect the Colts to go to Pittman early and often to avoid falling behind the 7-6 pack in the hunt.

Ja’Maar Chase ($7600DK, $8000FD)

Chase has found some chemistry quickly with backup Browning. In the three games with Browning as his QB, Chase has seen 22 targets in that span, which accounts for 25.6% of the total targets in those three games. The Vikings have a good pass defense, but they have given up a lot of big plays this season. Chase has a safe floor and a high ceiling for this matchup.

Honorable Mentions: Justin Jefferson (QUES). Courtland Sutton. Jerry Jeudy. Diontae Johnson. Jordan Addison. Jameson Williams. Josh Downs.

The TEs

TJ Hockenson ($5800DK, $7000FD)

The Bengals are the worst team against TEs in fantasy, and Hockenson is one of the elite players in his position. No matter who has been the QB for the Vikings, Hockenson has been able to produce. He averaged 14.7 with Kirk Cousins and 16.2 with Hall and Dobbs throwing to him over the past five weeks. Mullens may not be an inexperienced QB, but he is making his first start of the year, and TEs are usually a QB’s favorite security blanket.

Sam LaPorta ($6,000 DK, $6800 FD)

The highest-priced TE for a reason. LaPorta has played a huge role in the Lions success this season, as the rookie TE is fourth among TEs in receiving yards and tied for the lead in touchdowns. On a small slate like Saturdays, going double TE isn’t terrible as both former Iowa TEs are in great spots.

Honorable Mentions: Pat Freiermuth.

Drago’s Best Bets:

Joe Mixon Any Time TD
Hockenson Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
Courtland Sutton Any Time TD
Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Run Over 13.5
Josh Downs Over 42.5 Receiving Yards
Michael Pittman Jr Any Time TD

1 year ago 0 comments

NFL

LIVE NFL DFS Lineup Q & A for Dec. 11

DFSGhost & StixPicks 1 year ago

written by DFSGhost & StixPicks

Fantasy Football DFS experts Ghost and Stix break down the best NFL DFS Picks for Sunday’s Main Slate for DraftKings and FanDuel. The guys will preview all the Week 15 games, making DFS picks as well as going over some player props and bets.

1 year ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for Week Fourteen

Dave Gloeckner 1 year ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We are keeping ahead of the sticks here at WinDaily with our weekly NFL Game Bets. Unlike other sites, we post our picks, good and bad, and track our record. Posting a 58% win rate against the spread is good. But our bar is higher and we’re looking to get there over the next 5 weeks.

Week 13 was interesting as it saw a staggering number of road teams cover. In fact, the away teams were 10-3 ATS last week. The public held tough with the books going 6-7 ATS. But Vegas rallied late and took home wins with SF, Green Bay and Cincy to salvage the week.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 32-23 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 14

BALTIMORE RAVENS -7.5 vs LA RAMS

Lamar Jackson versus NFC teams is like a cheat code. The Ravens QB is 20-1 in his career SU against NFC opponents. Speaking of this season alone, Baltimore is 3-0 against the other conference and has outscored those opponents by a score of 106-33. They’ve played two of those games at home, against quality teams in Detroit and Seattle, and won those games by a margin of 75-9. The Rams have been a nice story this season, showing that HC Sean McVay still has more in the tank. But the Rams weaknesses are the Ravens strengths. The Rams have a top 10 pass offense but the Ravens rank 2nd in pass coverage according to PFF. On the other side, the Ravens have the #1 rush offense according to DVOA and the Rams have the 21st rushing defense in DVOA.

LA CHARGERS -2.5 vs DENVER BRONCOS

The Broncos turnover luck regressed last week as they lost the TO battle for the first time in six weeks. That ended up costing them the game in Houston as the Texans walked away with a last-minute victory by intercepting Russell Wilson to seal the game. The Chargers are a different story as their highly acclaimed offense took a back seat to their maligned defense last week as LA beat NE by a score of 6-0.

But I expect that to change this week as the Chargers offense will look to break out against the league’s 31st ranked defense in Denver. While I hate to lean on the Chargers in close games (0-6 in games decided by 4 points or less), Denver is just 2-3 SU away from home and 1-4 ATS.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -5.5 vs CAROLINA PANTHERS

The Saints are on a three game losing streak and fading in the NFC South race. But they welcome in the worst team in the league today in the Carolina Panthers to help end their streak of attrition. The Panthers are coming off a back-door cover in Tampa last week as they competed but lost 21-18. Speaking of back-door covers, that’s exactly what Carolina did to New Orleans back in Week 2 when Bryce Young threw a TD with one minute remaining to close the scoring at New Orleans 20 and Carolina 17.

But that luck only lasts so long. Carolina is now 0-7 on the road with four of those games being decided by double digits. The Saints advantage at the line should make a difference as Carolina has the 3rd worst pass blocking unit and the 5th worst run block rate.

TAMPA BAY BUCS +2.5 at ATLANTA FALCONS

Surprisingly enough, this is the biggest game in the NFC South and could ultimately determine the division winner. The Falcons won their first meeting against Tampa by a score of 16-13. With a win today, they would have a perfect 4-0 record in the division and a minimum 1.5 game lead in the NFC South. But instead, I’m backing the more desperate team today in Tampa for a few reasons. First, Tampa has played competitively away from home posting a 2-4 record but 4-2 ATS. Additionally, they’ve played four games in domes and are 2-2 but have a +11 point differential.

On the other side, the Falcons have been outgained by the Jets and Falcons in the last two weeks but found ways to win those games because of turnovers and one of those turning into a defensive TD. Much like Pittsburgh, it’s hard to continue to be outgained and win. And looking at the metrics, Tampa has the better units in all three phases according to DVOA:

OFFENSE: Tampa 21st / Atlanta 24th
DEFENSE: Tampa 14th / Atlanta 25th
SPECIAL TEAMS: Tampa 24th / Atlanta 25th

SURVIVOR PICK NEW ORLEANS

A lot of survivor leagues have wrapped up due to big upsets last week in Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. But if you’re still going then your choices are probably limited. In that case, take the Saints today against the Panthers. New Orleans has not given us much confidence this season, but their advantages at the line and the noise in the dome should be enough to make Bryce Young cough up the ball once, or more.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

1 year ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RB Report Card for Week 14

Dave Gloeckner 1 year ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We posted a solid set of RB plays in Week 13. But we didn’t hit the high scorer, which was Alvin Kamara, and ultimately ended with just 5 of the top 10 RB’s. So we get a B and look to raise the bar this week as we move down the home stretch of the NFL season. Week 14 has weather concerns in many games which could mean good value spots for RB’s. We break that down and more with our Week 14 Running Back Report!

Please check out Stix’s weekly projections when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also, remember to check out the NFL Pre-Lock Show on Sunday at 11 am on YouTube.

I highlight my favorite ten RBs each week and break them into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY $9200 DraftKings $9800 FanDuel

Christian McCaffrey hasn’t scored below 20 fantasy points in 6 straight games. In fact, he’s scored over 20 fantasy points in 10 of his 12 games this season. He’s not only the best RB in football, but the most consistent. This week he faces the Seahawks who he scored 33.9 points against just 2 weeks ago. Seattle’s D ranks 19th in rushing defense DVOA and allows the 6th most fantasy points to RB’s. It’s hard to have a balanced roster with $9200 at RB. But it’s also hard to pass on someone with a floor of 20 and ceiling of almost double that.

ALVIN KAMARA $8200 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

We left Alvin Kamara off the report card last week mainly due to the matchup and Detroit’s premiere rushing defense. But the game script allowed Kamara to see open spaces and took advantage of that posting a league high 28.9 fantasy points last week. At this point, Kamara is a must play any week regardless of match-up. But this week, the match-up makes him a top three play as he faces a Carolina team that is 32nd against the run according to DVOA.

AUSTIN EKELER $7600 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

I want to avoid all things Chargers but I’m giving them one last chance this week against Denver. Ekeler has been an extreme disappointment for fantasy owners this season as his production in the running and passing game has dropped significantly from 2022. But it’s Denver, and they allow the most fantasy points to RB’s. Additionally, Denver has allowed the 4th most receptions to running backs and has the 4th worst run defense according to PFF. And for what it’s worth, Ekeler caught 10 balls in the one game he played fully against Denver last year. This is like Colonel Custer’s last stand for me with the Chargers RB.

KYREN WILLIAMS $7200 DraftKings $8500 FanDuel

Even against a stout defense in the Cleveland Browns, Williams put up solid numbers and eclipsed the 20 point mark last week. He is also on the verge of a match-up proof play as the Rams offense has been hitting on all cylinders since his return to the lineup. What’s even more important is the usage rate as Williams saw 94% of the snaps and 96% of the touches! This week he gets a tough opponent in Baltimore who ranks 4th in rushing defense DVOA. But the weather looks to be rainy in Baltimore tomorrow which could give a big edge to the running backs. With the usage we’re seeing, Williams is a candidate for another 20+ point week.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JOSH JACOBS $6800 DraftKings $8200 FanDuel

Since Antonio Pierce took over as HC, Josh Jacobs has averaged 22 carries per game and 17.5 fantasy points per game. Those numbers are a significant increase to his usage under Josh McDaniels and are a big reason why he’s become a viable option at RB again. This week he faces a Vikings defense who has been solid against the run ranking 6th in rushing defense DVOA. But they have allowed the 5th most receptions to RB’s, averaging allowing 5.5 receptions per game. With the Raiders pass offense being limited, Jacobs should be a factor catching the ball out of the backfield. That combined with a heavy dose of carries and he becomes a solid option this week.

JAHMYR GIBBS $6600 DraftKings $8100 FanDuel

Gibbs received just 8 carries last week but was able to make the most of them by rushing for 60 yards. However, he failed to make any contribution in the passing game and didn’t score a TD so he came up short of expectations. But as we mentioned prior with weather, the forecast in Chicago doesn’t look good. While rain won’t be a factor, the high will be in the low 30’s with 15 mph winds. I expect Detroit to rely heavily on the running game and I prefer Gibbs due to his ability to break a long run. Also factor in the Bears have allowed the 3rd most receptions to RB’s in the NFL this season.

JOE MIXON $6100 DraftKings $7500 FanDuel

It’s nice to see the Bengals remember they have a talented running back in Joe Mixon that could use a steady workload. Mixon put up solid numbers on MNF and has now scored a TD in 5 of his last 6 games. This week he faces the Colts who are allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to RB’s. Mixon is a top three play this week.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ZACK MOSS $5900 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Moss was priced as a free square last week but failed to produce even to that low of a standard. However, we won’t back away from him this week as he still has a very high floor. That’s because he saw 94% of the snaps and 92% of the touches last week. And that shouldn’t change against a Bengals D that is 29th in rushing defense DVOA.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS DraftKings $5800 FanDuel $6500

We’re all still waiting of that one big game from Williams. And it hasn’t been from a lack of volume as Williams has seen 10+ touches in every game but one this season. The issue has been finding the endzone as he has 0 rushing TD’s and just 2 receiving TD’s. In come the Chargers who have allowed 8 total TD’s to running backs this season. But more importantly, they’ve allowed the 2nd most receptions to RB’s with a staggering 6.2 receptions per game. That’s the primary reason to like Williams as his floor is high due to his projected activity in the passing game.

CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE DraftKings $4200 FanDuel $5600

Here is our free square of the week as a shoulder injury has sidelined Isiah Pacheco. The Bills allow the 12th most rushing yards per game at 116.7. They also allow the 10th most points to RBs. In a game with the highest implied total on the board, this price is too low to ignore.

BONUS: ROSCHON JOHNSON DraftKings $4900 FanDuel $5300

Johnson has suddenly emerged in a crowded backfield. He looks to be the top receiving candidate of the Bears RBs. Because of that he’s earned more snaps and touches. This is a sneaky play but one that could be of great value with cold and windy conditions in Chicago.

RB PROP BETS

TBD

Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

1 year ago 0 comments

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 14

Joe DiCarlo 1 year ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

I can’t believe it’s already Week 14. Season-long leagues will finally come to a close and playoff brackets will be set by Monday night, but that’s another fantasy side, we’re here for DFS. Sunday brings us another torturous slate loaded with 30-point slates. Eleven games are packed with plenty of options to build your lineups along with your bankroll, so let’s get to it.

As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Sunday Main Slate 12/10/23

Rams @ Ravens (-7) (O/U 40)

Watch the forecast for Baltimore, as it could turn out to be a soggy afternoon. Baltimore’s defense is tenacious as it is, add the elements and it might be a long day for Matt Stafford. The Ravens DST is priced just right on DraftKings ($3,300) but not so interesting on FanDuel ($4,500). Love the narrative for Odell Beckham Jr. against his former team, tearing his ACL in Super Bowl LVI where he played a huge role in the Rams’ victory. OBJ is worthy of a dart throw, priced below $4K on DraftKings, and could land in the box easily against the Rams’ beatable secondary.

Lions @ Bears (+3.5) (O/U 43.5)

Great game to mini-stack in a divisional matchup for two teams with plenty to prove. Detroit’s defense has not been the same lock-down, three-and-out juggernaut as it was earlier in the year (CJ Gardner Johnson out since Week Two), and Justin Fields is playing for his career in Chicago (If Carolina ends up with the number-one pick, it goes to Chicago). Fields and DJ Moore make total sense, and any Lions of your choice, who pretty much anybody can make a case for in DFS. Careful using Jared Goff (on the road and outdoors) but David Montgomery returning to his old stomping ground in Chicago should elevate his game and smash his midrange price tag on DraftKings and FanDuel.

@nfl
catch ‘em if you can 💨 #davidmontgomery #detroitlions #nfl
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Panthers @ Saints (-5) (O/U 37.5)

Careful here fellas, Carolina has been better on defense, especially with Jaycee Horn back since Week One. But even he wasn’t enough to stop Mike Evans last week, who went for (7REC/162YDS/1TD). However, The Panthers held Rachaad White to just 80 rushing yards, so beware of sliding in Kamara as your pay-up running back.

The Saints refuse to sit a banged-up Derek Carr and continue to roll out Taysom Hill for goal-line work and trick-pony plays. Neither are safe plays besides Chris Olave and the Saints’ DST, who may feast off rookie quarterback’s Bryce Young struggle under center.

Texans @ Jets (+3.5) (O/U 33.5)

More weather concerns here, which could slow down CJ Stroud against a tough Jets defense. Being without one of his favorite targets Tank Dell (IR) may also cool off the Ohio State rookie phenom, so consider the Jets’ DST as a sub $3K option on DraftKings. Now tight end Dalton Schultz didn’t make the trip out to the big city, which leaves another opportunity for Brevin Jordan to step up, as he did last week scoring nine fantasy points. Jordan is still a 3X option at the tight end with Schultz off the radar.

Not touching anybody on the Jets…except for that defense. If the weather does become a factor come Sunday, the Jet’s defense is very capable of forcing some turnovers and keeping the score low.

Colts @ Bengals (+1) (O/U 44)

Looking to skimp on a quarterback? Check into this game. Jake Browning has shown us enough on Monday night, delivering the ball to his playmakers Ja’Maar Chase and Joe Mixon. Gardner Minshew has also pumped life into the Colts playoff hopes this season. Both are viable plays for quarterback at their bargain salaries, especially Browning after his 30-point performance. The field was all over Zack Moss last week, and he crapped the bed for 7 fantasy points. Roll the dice one more time as he could be chalk again filling in the shoes of running back for Jonathon Taylor. Trust in Moss who we’ve seen go bonkers up and down the field earlier in the year, this may be the last time he’s affordable.

Jaguars @ Browns (-3.5) (O/U 30.5)

It’s a sick total with a game-time decision Trevor Larence and a Browns’ quarterback competition featuring the 38-year-old Joe Flacco. Start these defenses along with tight end David Njoku (30 targets since Week 10), who may have a big game without Amari Cooper potentially eating from his plate. Fingers crossed for Flacco, who knows where his bread is buttered and fully capable of delivering the football (Two touchdown passes in his Browns’ debut).

The Jags lost Christian Kirk to IR, which boosts Zay Jones up the pecking order in targets for Jacksonville. But his production will be in the hands of Trevor Lawrence, who may not be at 100 percent if he does play. Zay is as far as I would reach against this tough Browns’ defense at home. Consider them also for DFS as a bargain on DraftKings ($3,000).

Seahawks @ Niners (-10.5) (O/U 47)

We have a lopsided NFC West matchup to begin the afternoon, but the total looks promising for some action. Geno Smith will be the key factor for Seattle to score, as both running backs Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are game-time decisions. There’s no doubt the Niners will light up the scoreboard at home, but which Geno Smith will show up? If last week’s against the Cowboys does, expect some heavy peppering of targets to DK Metcalf and slot rookie receiver Jaxson-Smith Njigba, especially if both Seattle running backs don’t suit up.

The Niners put on a show in Philadelphia last weekend, and let the world know in prime time who the best is in the NFC. They’ll look to keep the ball rolling, and all are in play for DFS as usual. Brandon Aiyuk has the best match-up on paper against Seattle when they line up and play zone defense.

Update: Geno Smith is now a game-time decision

@shiftyinc
#fyp #brandonaiyuk #routerunning #shifty #receiver #widereceiver #nfl #football #footballhighlights #49ers #foryou #viral #xyzcba
♬ original sound – ✞

Vikings @ Raiders (+3) (O/U 34)

The Vikes will welcome back Justin Jefferson with open arms as he returns from injured reserve. But we are yet to see if any chemistry exists between him and Josh Dobbs, so JJ is a GPP play for me. Perhaps TJ Hockenson is too since the field will most likely pay down this week for a tight end, and Hockenson eats as JJ takes away coverage.

Davante Adams may also be another sneaky receiver for DFS in this game. He’s been the clear go-to guy since Week 10 collecting 33 targets against a beatable Minnesota secondary (23 in DVOA to opposing receiver), Adams could float under the radar in tournaments for high double-digit production.

Bucs @ Falcons (-2) (O/U 41)

The Falcons have plenty to play for as they close in on the NFC South title and Arthur Smith has finally figured out his offense, get the ball into the hands of your best players. Bijan Robinson is averaging 20 carries a game in his last three contests. Nothing spectacular but Bijan offers a safe floor for DFS and a pivot from the chalk running backs.

When the Bucs make the Main Slate, the first thing I check is if I can afford Mike Evans’ salary. Tampa’s future Hall of Fame has been matchup-proof all season, averaging close to 20 fantasy points a game. No matter who is hiking the ball for the Bucs, Evans is force-fed the ball every week.

Bills @ Chiefs (-1.5) (U/O 48.5)

We’ve got the highest total in a close game between two AFC powerhouses that are struggling to get back on the winning track. Buffalo’s crucial losses throughout the season have them in danger of missing the playoffs, and Kansas City has been lost at the receiver position, winning with their defense and running the ball.

Now that Isaiah Pacheco has been ruled out Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerrick McKinnon will have larger roles, great options for cash games. If they are unable to move the ball for KC, expect Rashee Rice to see plenty more targets from Patrick Mahomes, as the rookie has emerged as the WR1 since no one else besides him and Kelce can catch the football.

Buffalo will be pushing all their chips into the middle of the table for Week 14 to keep their playoff hopes alive. A win for the Bills would need a little extra help from their complimentary players. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs play a giant role in the offense, but Gabe Davis, James Cook, and Khalil Shakir will see lesser coverage, so good only for these guys.

Broncos @ Chargers (-2.5) (O/U 44)

I like Wilson in a bounce-back game against the Chargers this week, but their defense has been stepping it up lately. However, Javonte Williams will be in a smash spot, as LA has allowed well over 100 rushing yards per game all season. Head coach Sean Payton has finally figured out who deserves to lead the backfield, Javonte under $6K on DraftKings gives you a safe floor for double-digit fantasy points in the evening slate.

Chargers head coach Brandon Staley hinted at a “committee” approach in his running back room, so Austin Ekeler’s snaps could be on the downside this weekend. Too bad, because the Broncos have struggled all year to stop the run, and currently sit at dead last in DVOA (32nd). Keep Ekeler away from cash games but by all means use him in tournaments, as the field should shy away from rostering him after the news broke.

Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen are always in play, and also tournament plays because of the higher salaries. But take a gander at Gerald Everett as a punt at tight end this week. The Broncos are 31st in DVOA against opposing tight ends, and if the Chargers are looking to chuck the ball even more, Everett could easily pay off his salary and then some.

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 14. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

1 year ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

LIVE NFL DFS Lineup Q & A for Dec. 10

DFSGhost & StixPicks 1 year ago

written by DFSGhost & StixPicks

Fantasy Football DFS experts Ghost and Stix break down the best NFL DFS Picks for Sunday’s Main Slate for DraftKings and FanDuel. The guys will preview all the Week 14 games, making DFS picks as well as going over some player props and bets.

1 year ago 0 comments

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