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Stix Picks: Week 3 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com
written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 3 NFL DFS GPP slate. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*Having said that, I saw a lot of lineups last week in the Discord strictly with the GPP article players. PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will not be an article where I write about Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:
– Chargers / Chiefs
– Seahawks / Vikings
– Bucs / Rams
– Falcons / Giants
– Colts / Titans

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)

Well, well, well… Wilson is becoming a staple in this article and I’m here for it. Wilson AGAIN grades out as a top-two QB in the AETY Model just behind Kyler Murray (who is on another planet right now). As you saw last week and the week before that, this Seattle offense is E-F-F-I-C-I-E-N-T. Honestly, this may be the best matchup for Wilson and company against a banged-up, Vikings’ defense that just gave up 400 passing yards to Kyler Murray. Enjoy the fireworks for the third week in a row.

Patrick Mahomes ($8,200 DK / $8,700 FD)

Much more affordable on FanDuel, but Mahomes falling under 12% in ownership should be crime. This game against a sub-par Chargers’ secondary (without Chris Harris) currently has a total of 55 points… that bodes well for fantasy points on both sides of this game. We don’t need to write more about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. You NEED exposure to this game and you know who to pair him with.

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($7,200 DK / $7,000 FD)

Welcome back to the passing attack, Mr. Austin Ekeler. It was a strange Week 1 outing for Ekeler who was nursing a hamstring injury coming into the season, but we saw things go back to normal for a Joe Lombardi offense, as Ekeler saw nine targets in the passing attack in Week 2. Yes, he only had nine carries, but we don’t tout Ekeler for his rushing abilities, those are just icing on the cake.

This game is going to be a shoot-out and the Chargers will heavily rely on Ekeler as they likely play catchup from the get-go. He will be able to provide plenty of rushing/receiving upside this week against the Chiefs’ 32nd rank run defense (in terms of DVOA) who will also be without Frank Clark this week.

Jonathan Taylor ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)

With or without Carson Wentz, I absolutely love this matchup against the Titans for a “get-right” spot for Jonathan Taylor. The combination of Frank Reich’s inside and outside running zone schemes should provide plenty of breakaway alleys for Jonathan Taylor against an undisciplined defensive line in Tennessee (that ranks 24th in run defense DVOA). He’s going to be sub-5% owned on DraftKings and offers a nice run-back to all of my AJ Brown and Julio Jones shares.

Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Gibson, Mike Davis, Javonte Williams

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf ($7,300 DK / $7,200 FD)

In my opinion, Metcalf is way too cheap on both sites, but dear lord is he a freesquare on FanDuel. I know, you’ve seen Metcalf in all of the GPP articles here thus far in 2021 and he’s let us down for the most part… but he’s going to blow up soon and this is a prime spot against an aging Patrick Peterson and one of the worst corners in the NFL, Bashaud Breeland. The Seahawks have yet to scheme a deep ball for DK Metcalf (Lockett currently has ~100 more air yards logged) and with the speed/size differential (and the dome), look for Offensive Coordinator, Shane Waldron to change that.

Tyler Lockett is also in another smash spot. All in all, we want some Seahawks shares yet again in Week 3.

Justin Jefferson ($7,200 DK / $7,400 FD)

Please see the Cash Game Checkdown for my Week 3 love affair with Justin Jefferson. Love me a “mini-stack” of Metcalf and Jefferson for the afternoon hammer.

Robert Woods ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD)

Yes, Cooper Kupp killed me last week and yes, he’s likely to be 25% owned again in Week 3. I’m 100% okay if you want to go back to the well on Cooper Kupp, but Robert Woods is significantly cheaper with very similar player props. When in doubt, trust Vegas.

I’m taking the savings here and likely will be incredibly overweight on Robert Woods this week, as he too will have his fair share of Ross Cockrell in coverage against a banged-up Tampa secondary.

AJ Brown ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD)

Another criminally-low priced number one wide receiver… We’ve been picking on Rock Ya-Sin, Kenny Moore, and the rest of this Colts’ secondary early on this year and I’ll be doing so again in Week 3. AJ Brown is primed up for a massive game sooner than later and I think we finally see him top 50 receiving yards in 2021 matchup (the AETY Model projects for over 80).

Brown currently sits 9th in the NFL in air yards with absolutely nothing to show for it. I’m not a huge air yards guy, but sometimes you just need to trust the data. Seattle made it a priority to hit AJ Brown with a purpose last week and it looked like he was a bit scared to run his normal crossing routes against that bruising, yet beatable secondary. The Colts will not punish him like Seattle did and this will be a breakout game for Mr. Brown.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, Mecole Harman

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD)

Absolute smash play for me on DraftKings at sub $5K. How did his price go down? The Giants secondary is rough outside of James Bradberry and he will have his hands full with Calvin Ridley. With Russell Gage OUT, Pitts’ expected target share takes a big jump upwards against a Giants’ defense that runs a lot of man-coverage. You simply cannot cover Kyle Pitts 1-on-1.

This is the breakout game for Kyle Pitts and I want you all to have some exposure to him in your NFL DFS GPP builds. He’s a perfect run-back with a chalky Saquon Barkley.

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Tyler Higbee, Jack Doyle, Jared Cook, Logan Thomas

Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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NFL DFS Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com
written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Welcome back NFL! Helluva, Week `1 effort across the board and loved to see all of the Win Daily Members’ screenshots of both NFL DFS GPP hits and cash games! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

  • High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
  • VALUE PLAYS
  • Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
  • Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.


In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 1, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

  • Again, the player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at the Running Back position this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
  • Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Justin Herbert (likely 30%), Najee Harris (30%), Chris Carson (25%), Ezekiel Elliott (20%), Keenan Allen (40%), Cooper Kupp (20%), CeeDee Lamb (20%), Noah Fant (20%)… I’m likely fine with all of the above besides Cooper Kupp.
  • PEOPLE WILL BE LOADING UP ON DAL/LAC exposure. DO NOT FADE THIS GAME, but you do not need to full on stack it in cash.
  • Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
  • AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
  • I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($8,200 DK / $8,700 FD)

Kyler Murray is likely to be a staple in this article on a weekly basis. The QB1 from Week 1 is back in another matchup he should be able to exploit with both his legs and arms. Minnesota’s secondary (outside of Patrick Peterson who played decently in Cincinnati) is still trash and ranks in the bottom ten in pass defense DVOA.

Murray is yet again the top-rated quarterback according to the AETY Model and if you can afford him, you should feel good about him anchoring your cash game lineup.

Justin Herbert ($6,700 DK / $7,600 FD)

Mr. Chalk of Week 2 and AETY Model approved as the #3 overall projected point-scorer from the Quarterback position and also the #3 overall quarterback value. It’s very likely over 50% of the DraftKings field selects Herbert as their cash game quarterback and probably 20-30% on FanDuel will do the same.

With DeMarcus Lawrence recently put on the IR, the Cowboys are going to have a very difficult time establishing a pass rush leaving Herbert and a loaded core of pass-catchers to torch this Cowboys’ secondary who gave up nearly 400-yards to Tom Brady a week ago. I’m likely to eat the chalk here and enjoy the show with a tight-spread and a 55-point total.

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($8,800 DK / $8,800 FD)

In terms of “top-tier” running backs, it’s hard to not love Alvin Kamara as your feature back in NFL DFS Cash Games this week… especially on FanDuel at that price-tag. The AETY Model absolutely loves Kamara’s expected usage this week grading him with an expected 80% total opportunity share (passing target share and rushing opportunity share). That is second to just Christian McCaffrey (who obviously is always in-play for cash games).

The Panthers’ run-defense looked incredibly stout last week using their “big-nickel” package often with three safeties on the field to stop the run, but that was against the New York Jets. I don’t expect a ceiling game from Kamara here, but the usage alone makes him a sexy cash game play.

Chris Carson ($6,100 DK / $6,700 FD)

I absolutely loved what I saw from this new Seahawks’ offense ran by Shane Waldron. I had mentioned Russell Wilson in every single article I wrote last week expecting a blow-up game with the Waldron system and he did not disappoint. Sure, the pace of that game was lower than expected but this Seahawks’ offense was the definition of efficient (ranking 9th in rushing DVOA and 5th in passing).

As much as I love the Cowboys/Chargers matchup, we need to get some exposure to this Seattle game with a current total sitting at 54 points. Carson is the most affordable piece of real-estate in that game and also has zero competition behind him now that Rashaad Penny is set to miss multiple weeks with injury.

Najee Harris ($6,100 DK / $6,100 FD)

Ultimate freesquare on FanDuel with that price-tag and likely a field-favorite on DraftKings as well. If there’s any chalk running back I’m afraid to roster in cash this week, it’s Najee Harris. The expected usage rate is incredibly high (right behind Kamara), but this run-blocking scheme from a weak Pittsburgh offensive line leaves much to be desired. That being said, Najee Harris played 100% of the offensive snaps for the Steelers in Week 1… that is hard to ignore at an affordable salary for cash game builds.

Joe Mixon ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

The Bears defense is brutal and Joe Mixon is another Kamara-Harris type in terms of rarely going to leave the field. My main focus for my cash game running backs is overall touches and Mixon is a guy that will finish top-5 likely every week in running back touches (he had 33 of them last week). I expect little-to-no defense on both sides of this game and that should bode well for Joe Mixon against a borderline practice squad caliber defense Chicago is rolling out.

Damien Harris ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD)

What a showing for Damien Harris in his season debut as the featured back of the New England Patriots compiling over 115 all-purpose yards. As a six-point favorite in a low-total against a Jets’ defense that surrendered over 4.7 yards per carry to McCaffrey last, I’m fine with taking a little bit of a risk on Harris for the sake of salary relief. He’s got a nice all-purpose yard prop of over 90 yards and is -125 to score a touchdown. When in doubt, I’ll trust Vegas here (and the AETY Model agrees) that Harris finds a way to provide well over 2.5x DraftKings value on this price-tag.

Honorable Mention: Ezekiel Elliott, David Montgomery, Kenyan Drake, Eli Mitchell, Nick Chubb

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,400 FD)

All hail, Keenan Allen this week against the Dallas Cowboys. We touched on this matchup that is going to provide fantasy fireworks from the second the ball is kicked off and there’s no who provides a higher-floor in that game than Keenan Allen. Fifteen targets is very well a conservative projection for Allen in this game. If you’re not playing Herbert (hell, even if you are), ensure Keenan Allen finds a way to your cash game build as he will likely have Jourdan Lewis in a pretzel all game long.

CeeDee Lamb ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD)

Similar to Keenan Allen, everyone in the industry is going to rush to roster CeeDee Lamb due to the savings off of Amari Cooper. Again, you want exposure to both sides of the ball in this game but I do not think this is a home run spot for CeeDee Lamb as he’ll likely see a lot of Chris Harris in coverage (my personal favorite cornerback). Despite the old age, Harris can still ball out.

Having said that, the expected volume for this Dallas passing attack is far to0 great to fear a relatively bad matchup for CeeDee Lamb. As much as it’s a bad matchup for CeeDee, it’s also bad matchup for Chris Harris… CeeDee is an excellent route runner and will win his fair share on Sunday. Chris Harris is out. CeeDee eats!

Allen Robinson ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD)

According to the AETY Model, Allen Robinson is the number one mis-priced (on DraftKings) wide receiver in regards to his overall projection. Allen Robinson currently sits as the #10 overall wide receiver this week but priced as the 17th “best” wide receiver on DraftKings.

I don’t like him as much on FanDuel due to the high PPR floor, but I made a living off of using those pricing discrepancies the AETY Model spits out when projections are completed. Robinson is projected for a 30% target share on a team that should throw the ball close to 40 times. Pair that volume with the trio of below-average cornerbacks he’ll see from Cincinnati, Robinson is as safe as they come this week. Between you and I, Mixon and Robinson is one of my favorite “mini game stacks” on the slate this week.

If you’d rather use Ezekiel Elliott for your Dallas exposure (and not rostering CeeDee because we do not want to full on stack in cash), Allen Robinson is an EXCELLENT cash game pivot and will be a low-owned difference maker in NFL DFS Cash Games.

Devonta Smith ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD)

Devonta Smith is a route running extraordinaire and came out with a bang last week in his NFL debut against the Falcons. He is clearly top wideout on this roster and should be priced in the low $6K range on both fantasy outlets. We need the salary relief this week and there’s likely no higher overall value than Devonta Smith against a banged-up 49ers’ secondary who just lost Jason Verrett for the season and currently has Emmanuel Moseley not participating in practice.

All in all, this 49ers’ defense is nothing like it was over the past couple of years and Devonta Smith will have matchups to exploit all game long.

Honorable Mention: Ja’Marr Chase, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd (DK), Marquez Callaway, AJ Brown, DJ Moore

Tight Ends

*If you can afford Darren Waller or Kittle, you play them in cash. They’re listed as honorable mention due to the lineup build this article likely leaves you with… as you’ll notice, there isn’t a lot of room for Waller/Kittle on that (unless you’re on FanDuel) build but if you can find a way, you play one of them!

Kyle Pitts ($5,200 DK / $5,500 FD)

Oh how the mighty in ownership have fallen. Just a week ago this guy was 50% owned in cash games and is now likely to be around the 10% range. I will never understand how people will just bail on someone after one week. Pitts led the Falcons in targets and also was heavily involved in the red zone.

If you’re looking into the real metrics that matter here (and this should surprise no one), Pitts was only used to pass block 5% of the time… that my friends is incredibly valuable for a fantasy tight end. This dude lines up all over the field and his price is still soft enough to where we should all be licking our chops to roster Pitts this week as they’re going to be play catch-up early and often against Tampa Bay who is currently a 13-point favorite, lol.

Pitts is likely to finish this game with 10+ targets and on a slate with no Travis Kelce, I’m locking him in.

Noah Fant ($4,200 DK / $5,700 FD)

Just simply way too cheap on DraftKings and close to a playable value (in terms of optimal cash game builds) on FanDuel. With Jerry Juedy out for quite some time, there are a lot of targets to go elsewhere in this offense. I don’t think this will be a massive bump up in Fant’s already strong workload, but any bump up in target share is noteworthy. My only concern here is we will still see a lot of “Albert O” in the red-zone.

Dallas Goedert ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD)

Goedert is clearly the TE1 in Philadelphia and one of their most important skill position players as he logged over 73% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps last week. The AETY Model loves this spot for Goedert going against a lot of Cover 3 that San Francisco is likely to run. Assuming Jalen Hurts has to take what the defense gives him, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert should


Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, Jared Cook, Cole Kmet, George Kittle

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Tampa Bay
New England Patriots
Denver Broncos
Cleveland Browns
Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Jets

Good luck to all!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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NFL DFS Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com
written by brgrewe@gmail.com

My oh my, football is finally here! It’s NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

  • High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
  • VALUE PLAYS
  • Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
  • Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.


In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 1, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

  • The player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at every position which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
  • Chalk Talk: Marquez Callaway is likely to be 50% owned in cash games (if not more)… I’m OKAY if you want to just take that freesquare, but how the hell is a guy 50% owned just off of a nice training camp, lol.
  • Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
  • AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
  • I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)

A little too expensive on FanDuel with a full slate of games, but it’s hard not to love Kyler Murray in a projected shootout with a total currently sitting at 52.5 points (highest on the slate). Murray gets it done with both his legs and his passing ability (we sure hope this offense improved over the off-season) and has an incredible matchup against a Titans’ defense that ranked third to last in pass defense DVOA.

We do not need to dive into actual metrics and AETY Model analysis to support Kyler Murray being in play.

Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

No lies, Russell Wilson is by far my favorite play on this slate (GPP and Cash). This offense was a massive let down towards the end of last season and the NFL DFS public loves to have a long memory. With the acquisition of linemen, Gabe Jackson, I expect a significant bump up in the overall play in this Seattle offensive line.

The total in this matchup with the Colts against a sub-par secondary that Russ should carve, currently sits at 49 points (opened at 52). The AETY Model absolutely loves Russel in this spot projecting him for 277 passing yards and just about two touchdowns (in addition to some rushing upside). That is plentiful for a cash game lineup.

Jalen Hurts ($6,400 DK / $7,600 FD)

The AETY Model absolutely loves Jalen Hurts in Atlanta this week (current total of 48.5 points) projecting him for 251 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, and just about 40 rushing yards. That added bonus with the legs is exactly what gives Hurts a nod for our cash game lineups. In addition, our boy Stoweby is a defensive scheme genius and is calling for Dean Pees’ new Atlanta defense to bring a lot of defensive-back blitzing to the table this year… Can you say Jalen Hurts naked-bootleg touchdown run?

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold, Ryan Tannehill

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($9,100 DK / $9,400 FD)

It’s the feature back in one of the best outside-zone run scheme offenses in the NFL who the AETY Model projects to rush for over 110 yards and have 20+ yards receiving… that’s a monster game with or without a touchdown. Cincinnati ‘s run defense was quite suspect last year (21st in run defense DVOA) and likely got worse over the off-season. It’s all systems go if you want to pay up for a stud RB that’s not named Christian McCaffrey.

James Robinson ($6,400 DK / $5,900 FD)

A 3-down back against the nut-worst run defense (and overall defense) in the NFL. On FanDuel, Robinson should be a stone-cold lock at that price and he’s more than cash viable on DraftKings.

Joe Mixon ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD)

I’m only really interested to play Mixon in cash on DraftKings but he’s certainly in play on FanDuel as well. Mixon may very well lead this slate in touches and that’s hard to ignore at this low DraftKings price-tag for my cash game build.

Antonio Gibson ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD)

Way too cheap on DraftKings for “Christian McCaffrey Jr.” who’s supposedly going to be the three down back we all saw signs of in 2020. This kid is super-talented and should have a 15+ fantasy-point outing (over 2.5x value) against a Chargers’ defense that ranked 26th in run defense DVOA and should struggle in all aspects outside of the pass-rush again in 2021.

Honorable Mention: Raheem Mostert, Mike Davis, Chase Edmonds (DK Only)

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

*All of these superstars at the top of the salary chain are in play and qualify as cash viable (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins)

Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DK / $7,900 FD)

Great price, tough matchup. Stefon Diggs is arguably the best route runner in the NFL in a pass-happy, up-tempo offense and one of the only pass-catchers in the AETY Model database that projects for a 30% target share on a weekly basis. The expected volume outweighs any matchup concerns I’ll have with Stefon Diggs at these price-points.

DK Metcalf ($7,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

ALL THE WAY IN on DK Metcalf this week going up against aging Xavier Rhodes and T.J. Carrie. The AETY Model absolutely loves Russell Wilson and this Seattle passing attack, so let’s capitalize on one of the best talents in the NFL with Metcalf. He will score a touchdown or two in this matchup and will certainly be the headline of my GPP article this weekend.

Corey Davis ($4,900 DK / $5,800 FD)

With the player pool I’m recommending at the running-back position, it’s going to be tough to play more than one of these top-tier wideouts, so I’m going to buy into the early chemistry between rookie Zach Wilson and his number-one receiver, Corey Davis. Look for this new passing attack to take advantage of rookie, Jaycee Horn and average cover-corner, Donte Jackson.

Jerry Jeudy ($4,800 DK / $5,500 FD)

Way too cheap for one of the best young route runners who’s projected to lead his team in targets. I don’t love this Broncos offense, but they will be plenty efficient to put Jeudy in a position to hit over 2.5x value (currently projected for 13.50 DraftKings NFL DFS points).

Tee Higgins ($4,700 DK / $6,000 FD)

Higgins is likely going to lead this slate in wide receiving ownership outside of Marquez Callaway and I’m fine if you want to eat that chalk in a game that is projected to be high in pace with sub-par defensive showings. I don’t love this spot for Higgins as much as the public does (I honestly prefer Tyler Boyd), but at this ownership, Higgins won’t make or break your cash lineup’s ability to find the pay-line.

Terrance Marshall ($3,000 DK / $4,900 FD)

Stone-cold lock for me on DraftKings. Sam Darnold has a strong history of abusing slot receivers with targets and the rookie from LSU is likely the best slot receiver Darnold will have in his NFL career. This is an incredible matchup for Marshall and the AETY Model has no doubt that Marshall gets over 2.5x value in his NFL debut.

Honorable Mention: Marvin Jones, Marquez Callaway, Michael Pittman Jr.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,300 DK / $8,500 FD)

It’s Travis Kelce, do we need to say more? I really want to make it a priority to get one share of a Kansas City Chief contributor in my cash build and I can’t think of a safer play for that narrative than Travis Kelce. Don’t get too cute, play him or eat the chalk-value with the player below.

Kyle Pitts ($4,400 DK / $6,000 FD)

Take the savings on DraftKings if you cannot afford Kelce. I know we’ve never seen him play a full NFL game yet, but like Terrance Marshall, the price is just too good to pass up. With his high projected ownership, we do not need a whole lot from Kyle Pitts.

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

New England Patriots
Denver Broncos
Washington Football Team
Minnesota Vikings
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills

Good luck to all!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

Football is finally here! It feels like we’ve been without the best game in the world for years but the wait is over; it’s NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

  • High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
  • VALUE PLAYS
  • Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
  • Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.


In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 1, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

  • The player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at every position which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
  • UPDATE: Marvin Jones is a cash lock for me now with Golladay out.
  • Antonio Gibson Chalk Week: It’s interesting the field is so heavy on a rookie without a truly defined role.
    UPDATE: I’m eating the Gibson chalk for cash games.

    Moving to Boston Scott. Lock him in.
  • Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
  • AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
  • I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

  1. Lamar Jackson ($8,100 DK / $9,400 FD) – You don’t need me to tell you Lamar Jackson is in play. He’s the top QB option on this slate and a perfect start to your cash game build. I’m not going to pay for his price-tag on either sites for cash games, but he has much more value on DK this week if you choose to roster him.
    AETY Projection: 24.19 points
  2. Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) – Wilson is likely going to be the most popular QB on the Sunday main slate… and for good reason. This Atlanta pass defense is likely to struggle against Seattle’s offensive weapons. Russell Wilson is about as safe as they come this week for cash builds as he goes under center for a team with an implied total of 25.5 points.
    AETY Projection: 21.86 points
  3. Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,800 DK / $7,400 FD) – I have no idea why the DFS community isn’t all aboard the Jimmy G train this week. This dude had career games both times he met up with Vance Joseph’s defensive scheme last season (over 31 DK points both starts). He’s incredibly cheap and grades out as the #1 value on the Win Daily Sports AETY Model (Adjusted Expected Total Yards). Love him in cash, love him in GPPs.
    AETY Projection: 18.82 points

    Update: Not as high on him now with the receiving options limited and air-quality issues that threaten this game being able to be played. I love the pivot up to Aaron Rodgers ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) if I can find a way to afford it.
  4. Mitch Trubisky ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) – Disgusting, I know. If you want to get weird and go to the bottom of the barrel for salary relief, I’m telling you Trubisky is 100% in play. He’s much more likely to be on my GPP lineups as opposed to cash, but if you’d rather pay up for stud RBs/WRs (try to make it work with Jimmy G), you can do worse that Trubisky.

    He has excellent numbers against Patricia’s man coverage, but he’s the only QB in this article who doesn’t have a proven history of protecting the football. It’s risky, but it’s in play for NFL DFS cash games this week.
    AETY Projection: 17.44 points

Honorable Mention: Drew Brees ($6,800 DK / $8,100 FD) | Josh Allen ($6,500 DK / $7,900 FD) | Cam Newton ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD)

Running Backs

  1. Christian McCaffrey ($10,000 DK/FD) – It’s Christian McCaffrey. He’s always in play until further notice. I don’t think you have to use him in Week 1, but it’s hard not to lock him in.
    AETY Projection: 26.71 DK / 23.69 FD
  2. Dalvin Cook ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD) – Cook is likely to be overlooked by the NFL DFS world in Week 1, so I prefer him in GPPs, but he’s certainly in play for cash games. Green Bay did improve their defense in the off-season, but this squad ranked 27th in Run Defense DVOA in 2019… That doesn’t bode well for the Packers against a Gary Kubiak outside-zone, run scheme.
    AETY Projection: 20.19 DK / 18.46 FD
  3. Josh Jacobs ($6,800 DK / $8,200 FD) – My golden boy for 2020, Josh Jacobs. Lock him in for all formats this week against Carolina and their dead last ranking in run defense DVOA. I have Jacobs projected for over 90 yards rushing, which is by far the highest amount on this slate. Play him and don’t look back.
    AETY Projection: 20.80 DK / 19.42 FD
  4. Joe Mixon ($6,700 DK / $7,300 FD) – Joe Mixon is way too cheap for the expected workload he’s about to receive this season. Despite having a terrible offensive line and passing attack in Cincinnati last season, Mixon balled out and regularly saw 20+ touches per game.

    The Chargers’ defense rated 25th in run defense DVOA last season which is always nice to target, but Mixon’s workload will keep him in play against anyone despite their defense. I don’t love him this week, but he’s going to get a lot of touches.
    AETY Projection: 16.90 DK / 15.74 FD
  5. Chris Carson ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD) – No idea why people aren’t on Chris Carson this season (mainly speaking for season-long, but the DFS community apparently wants no part of him either). Seattle is a run first offense that averaged over 130 yards per game on the ground last season… Atlanta gave up over 120 yards on the ground per game last season. They’re defense looks a bit better on paper (more-so the secondary), but at this price, Carson has my interest.
    AETY Projection: 17.19 DK / 15.92 FD
  6. Antonio Gibson ($4,000 DK / $4,600 FD) – Enter Antonio Gibson chalk week. I don’t quite understand why the field is so high on Gibson in his first game out against arguably the best run defense in the NFL (outside of the value in his price). Usually, I’d say just lock him in because the ownership warrants it for cash games, but I’m 100% okay if you choose to fade him here.

    I don’t see simple path to success unless they use him as an inside receiver against these Philadelphia linebackers. Sometimes, you just need to play it safe and eat the chalk. I’m not thrilled about it, but he’s likely to be in my main cash lineup.
    AETY Projection: 11.24 DK / 9.95 FD

    Update: Boston Scott now a great play for cash games

    Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD) | Todd Gurley ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) | FD Only: Marlon Mack ($6,100 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

  1. Michael Thomas ($9,000 DK / $8,800 FD) – Like McCaffrey, I don’t need to elaborate on Michael Thomas. Top receiver on the slate and likely the highest in ownership.
    AETY Projection: 21.35 DK / 17.53 FD
  2. Davante Adams ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD) – Remember DeAndre Hopkins’ production in Houston? Hopefully you didn’t overpay for Hopkins this season as he moves to Arizona, but that’s a conversation for another day.

    Back to Hopkins production in Houston… Targets, targets, and more targets. This dude had over 31% of the target share each of the last three seasons! That won’t happen in Arizona and may not happen in the NFL again this season. If it does, that man is going to be Davante Adams in Green Bay.

    Adams is the only game in town (for now) and is likely to receive 10+ targets on a weekly basis. The skillset is there, the quarterback is there, and most of all, the volume is going to be there. Adams is a perfect target for your cash game lineup against this Minnesota secondary (who were great last year, but likely awful in 2020 due to significant personnel changes). It’s a fine salary saving pivot off of Michael Thomas… one that I prefer.
    AETY Projection: 18.34 DK / 14.78 FD
  3. DJ Moore ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – I’m not a DJ Moore truther like most, but if you don’t use McCaffrey, I’m cool with you rocking DJ Moore against a likely improved, but still underwhelming secondary for Las Vegas. This game has sneaky shoot-out potential and Moore would be a recipient of a lot of targets in that scenario.
    AETY Projection: 14.21 DK / 11.37 FD
  4. Kenny Golladay ($6,200 DK / $7,300 FD) – Criminally priced on DK. Golladay projects as the second best receiver on the slate for me in terms of overall production. I do get worried about Marvin Jones stealing red-zone targets, but Golladay is going to be busy on Sunday. It’s hard to pass up on the value here.
    AETY Projection: 17.14 DK / 14.36 FD

    Update: Marvin Jones now likely a MUST-PLAY in cash games with Golladay ruled out.
  5. Allen Robinson ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – On the other side of this Lions’ game is an absolute target monster who tears up man coverage. Allen Robinson projects as the third best receiver on this slate and I’ll have a lot of exposure to him this week. I like this game as another sneaky shoot-out and a big performance by Robinson.
    AETY Projection: 16.61 DK / 13.68 FD
  6. DK Metcalf ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – Lock in Metcalf this week for cash games. His price is too low in a plus-matchup against a young/bad Atlanta secondary. Metcalf is going to be extremely popular this weekend (in a game with a total approaching 50 points) and that makes him hard to fade in NFL DFS cash games… especially with a ceiling as high as his.
    AETY Projection: 14.71 DK / 12.42 FD
  7. Marquise Brown ($5,100 DK / $5,900 FD) – Similar to Metcalf, the upside with Marquise Brown is almost second-to-none. At this price tag, he’s extremely valuable and is going to be popular. I prefer using Brown in GPP formats when he’s lower owned due to the lack in volume (Baltimore is the most run-heavy offense in the NFL… and they’re great at it), but he’s in play this week for cash games at the high ownership.

    Personally, I’ll do whatever I can to pay up for Metcalf instead of Brown, but you can certainly use Brown or both of them if your lineup build demands that you do so.
    AETY Projection: 12.78 DK / 10.45 FD
  8. Preston Williams ($4,500 DK / $5,300 FD) – I can’t just write about players everyone likes… so we’ll be the only website on the planet that touts Preston Williams for Week 1 NFL DFS cash games. DeVante Parker is likely to be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore and that’s going to open up a lot for Preston Williams on the other side.

    He is coming off of a knee injury so proceed with caution on Williams, but he has Metcalf-like upside and will be un-rostered by the public. He is cash viable this week at this price point (pending his health… keep an eye on that).
    AETY Projection: 12.18 DK / 9.97 FD

    Update: No need to get this cute. Marvin Jones value opened up the world for us.

    Honorable Mention: Chris Godwin ($7,100 DK / $7,700 FD) | Keenan Allen ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) | DJ Chark ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD) | Tyler Boyd ($6,100 DK/FD)| Anthony Miller ($5,000 DK / $5,400 FD)

Tight Ends

  1. George Kittle ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – There is a zero percent chance I roster Kittle in cash games, but he has the highest ceiling out of all of the tight ends on this slate. Last year, we always played the tight-end against Arizona. Kittle faces Arizona… if you can afford him, rock him.
    AETY Projection: 14.84 DK / 12.38 FD
  2. Zach Ertz ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – Ertz is the only receiving threat on this offense right now with a banged-up Miles Sanders and depleted wide receiving core. Don’t get cute, Ertz is a smash, cash game play at this price.
    AETY Projection: 14.20 DK / 11.58 FD
  3. Hayden Hurst ($4,300 DK / $5,200 FD) – Hard to ignore Hurst at this price-tag now that he has joined the Atlanta Falcons (one of the best tight-end production systems in the NFL). I’ll leave it at that.

    Update: I am not as high on him after diving into the matchup against Seattle’s new secondary (mainly Jamaal Adams). He’ll be a fade for me in GPPs.
    AETY Projection: 11.20 DK / 9.34 FD

    Honorable Mention: DK Only: Dallas Goedert ($4,100 DK) | Jack Doyle ($3,600 DK)

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

  1. Buffalo Bills ($3,700 DK / $4,700 FD)
  2. New England Patriots ($3,200 DK / $4,600 FD)
  3. Baltimore Ravens ($3,100 DK / $4,800 FD)
  4. Indianapolis Colts ($3,000 DK / $3,700 FD)
  5. Washington Football Team ($2,000 DK / $3,400 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup (DK)

QB: Cam Newton
RB: Josh Jacobs
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Marvin Jones
WR: DK Metcalf
TE: Jack Doyle
FLEX: Antonio Gibson
DST: Colts

Good luck to all!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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NFL DFS – Stick’s Picks for Wild Card Weekend

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

It’s sad to say that the NFL Regular Season has come to close. The Win Daily Team absolutely crushed 2019 NFL DFS… Whether it was the Cash Game Checkdown or our top GPP picks each week, Win Daily had you covered. Having said that, we are still here to help you end your NFL DFS season on a high note.

There are four games on the main slate this weekend, but split up into two days. On such a small slate, I don’t think I’ll be playing any cash games this weekend. Everything on my end will be meant for GPPs. Let’s get to it!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of their investments.

Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for the NFL DFS Wild Card slate . Please see below for my notes on roster construction:

  • There is not a whole lot of obviously “value” on the slate. It looks like Josh Perkins is going to be the chalky cheap guy this week… I have no problem pivoting to Dawson Knox at that same price point if you’re looking to get different, but Perkins is not a bad play by any means. Sounds like Ertz is playing. I’ll probably avoid Perkins.
  • The total in the Vikings @ Saints game currently sits at 50 points… at least five points higher than any other game on this slate. This is the game I’ll probably invest in the most.
  • If you’re not going to play Michael Thomas, be sure to get some Saints’ exposure to offset Michael Thomas inevitably going for 25+ DraftKings’ points. My favorite way to do that is pairing Drew Brees with Jared Cook. You still have some Michael Thomas exposure if you roster Brees, so it’s not like you’re full fading Thomas.

Stick’s Picks – NFL DFS QB

  • Russell Wilson ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD) – Wilson is expensive this week, but for good reason. Wilson shot up my rankings earlier today when I finished my projections. The Eagles’ secondary is a mess and Seattle’s running game is depleted with injury. Wilson is going to have to get this done himself with his arm and legs and should lead the slate in scoring. Use him!
  • Josh Allen ($6,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Allen is on top of my GPP QB player pool this weekend on both sites. I don’t expect him to do a whole lot in the passing game, but I have his rushing floor projected for 55 yards. If he get’s in the end-zone (which he’s done eight times this season), I expect him to be the second highest scoring QB on the slate.

    Houston’s defense as a whole has struggled all season long and ended the regular season ranked 26th in pass DVOA. The Texans will be getting J.J. Watt back for this game, but I still don’t think their pass rush will improve a whole lot from what we’ve seen the last few weeks. If Allen comes into this weekend’s slate at ~10% ownership, he’s a player I’ll be heavily invested in.
  • Carson Wentz ($6,200 DK / $7,900 FD) – Over the past seven games, Wentz has an absurd average of 44 pass attempts. There is no other QB on this slate that has had anywhere near that type of volume. I’m not a fan of Wentz’ receivers, but on DraftKings specifically, this price is too low to avoid.

    Like Allen, no one seems to be on Wentz this weekend. Seattle should have no problem scoring on this Philadelphia secondary, so keep this one simple. If you’re rostering the player most likely to lead the slate in pass attempts, you’re setting yourself up for success.

Stick’s Picks – NFL DFS RB

  • Miles Sanders ($6,200 DK / $7,400) – Sanders is apparently a full go for Sunday’s game against Seattle. He is by far their most explosive player and should go into this slate decently under-owned due to recent injury concerns. Seattle is extremely beatable via the run and this makes Sanders my number one value play at the running back position on Sunday.
  • Devin Singletary ($6,000 DK / $6,200 FD) – Easily the most underpriced player on both sites. Singletary is clearly the RB1 for a run-first team in Buffalo (playing 70% or more of the offensive snaps in every game since Week 10). Houston’s defense is suspect in all areas… load up Singletary.

Stick’s Picks – NFL DFS WR

GO GOLD
  • Adam Thielen ($6,200 DK / $6,200 FD) – Thielen is probably my favorite play on the slate this week until further notice. Assuming Marshon Lattimore shadows Stefon Diggs (which is not 100% certain), Thielen is going to see a lot of P.J. Williams, Eli Apple, and Janoris Jenkins… I like that.

    New Orleans is an eight point favorite at home and should have no issues scoring points at will on this Vikings’ defense. If this gamescript sets up the way I think it will, the Vikings’ are going to have to abandon their running game early and start to chuck the ball around while playing catch-up. I have Thielen projected for eight catches, 110 yards, and a touchdown, which would put him at 28.1 DK points (right around 4.5x value).

    The touchdown is probably a bit much on the projection, but on a four game slate, I’ll take my chances with Adam Thielen in what should be a very busy day for the Vikings’ wide-outs.
  • Tyler Lockett ($7,200 DK / 7,300 FD) – Over $2K less than Michael Thomas on DraftKings… sign me up for Tyler Lockett. Lockett is 100% healthy and going to be heavily involved in the Seattle offense as their running back health is absolutely depleted. To keep this short and sweet, Lockett is going to shred this Philadelphia secondary (mainly Avonte Maddox).
  • John Brown ($6,000 DK / $6,500 FD) – John Brown is always two plays away from breaking the slate. In a GPP format, there’s plenty of reasons to love John Brown (one being his price). I touched earlier on Houston’s struggles against the pass and John Brown will be in a match-up he can produce in. If Houston can find a way to get an early lead and force Buffalo to play up-tempo a bit, John Brown is in for a big day against Johnathan Joseph.

    Brown’s ceiling is probably the highest on this slate. Take advantage of that.
  • Kenny Stills ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD) – It’s sounding like Will Fuller is going to be a game-time decision. Whether or not Fuller misses this game, I am going to have a lot of interest in Kenny Stills. We all know about Tredavious White’s ability to shutdown opposing top wide-outs… I’m not interested in paying up for DeAndre Hopkins (hopefully that doesn’t kill me).

    We have to take a stand in a four game slate, we simply cannot play everyone. Stills is coming off of a nine-target game and has been playing his best football over the last month. With White breathing down Hopkins’ neck all game on Saturday, look for Stills to get involved early and have his way with Bills’ corners, Taron Johnson and Levi Wallace. He’ll be in my main lineup.

Stick’s Picks – TE

  • Jared Cook ($4,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – Jared Cook is only on my DraftKings’ player pool ($6,500 on FD seems like a bit much). If you’re building a lineup that doesn’t include Michael Thomas, I really like Jared Cook as a pivot option. Just pray the red-zone targets go Jared Cook’s way.
  • Dawson Knox ($2,900 DK / $4,800 FD) – Knox is going to be virtually un-owned this week in NFL DFS. It makes a lot of sense as to why – he’s only topped five targets once this season. If you need salary relief and don’t want to eat Josh Perkins’ chalk, Knox is going to be my pivot against a Houston defense that has given up over 20 DK points per game to opposing tight ends in their last four games.

    Using Knox is 100% risky though, please be aware of that.
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NFL DFS Cash Games – Week 16 Checkdown

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

Championship Week 16 in Season-Long leagues and one of the last full slates for your NFL DFS Cash Games. Yet again, our incredible run from a cash game perspective kept rolling last week for Win Daily. We welcome you all in for another week of cashing – last week’s Cash Game Checkdown included a sample lineup that AGAIN crossed the pay lines with over 166 DraftKings points!

Let’s get right back at it for Week 16 which has a Sunday main slate of 11 games.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you can certainly use this information for other DFS websites. Please check back in on Saturday/Sunday morning for potential NFL DFS Cash Games updates!

If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of their investments.

Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 16, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

  • My NFL DFS Cash Game build for Week 16 will probably start with locking in DeAndre Washington (the free square play for this week).
  • There are a lot of different ways to go with the WR position. I don’t think you have to have Michael Thomas because there are a lot of strong plays in that $6k range that you can load up.
  • Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.

NFL DFS Cash Games Quarterbacks

  1. Lamar Jackson ($8,000) – It’s Lamar Jackson. He is as safe as they come right now and worth every penny if you can afford him in your cash builds.
  2. Russell Wilson ($7,000) – Wilson is an excellent pay-down option if you can’t afford Lamar Jackson. I’m projecting this to be more of a Carson game as the Seahawks are a double-digit home favorite but Wilson still offers a high floor against the 28th ranked defense in terms of pass DVOA.
  3. Kyler Murray ($6,100) – Murray’s price is too cheap going up against a pass-funnel Seattle defense. This game has the highest total on the slate and looks like it will set up nicely for Murray to throw it 35+ times. We always get a bit of a rushing floor as well with Kyler Murray so that helps raise his floor in DFS.
  4. Phil Rivers ($5,700) – Rivers has been unreliable all season long but this is a spot Rivers can get right. Rivers will have a healthy, full-staff of talented pass-catchers that will be able to consistently beat this Oakland secondary. At $5,700, I love Rivers’ chances at hitting 3x value (if not more) at home, against the 31st ranked defense in pass DVOA.
  5. Will Grier ($4,300) – Gross… but Grier is only $4,300 and should have no issues hitting 3x value, I hope. He offers the world in salary relief and truthfully, is likely to me my main cash game QB.

NFL DFS Cash Games Running Backs

  1. Christian McCaffrey ($10,100) – Do we need to say anything about Christian McCaffrey? The floor is as high as anyone in the game right now.
  2. Chris Carson ($8,500) – Last week’s lock at the running back position is probably going to be locked into my cash game lineups again in Week 16. I mentioned earlier that the Seahawks are a double-digit home favorite, which sets up nicely for Carson who’s coming off of a 25-touch outing in Carolina.

    In addition, Arizona has given up a total of 378 rushing yards to opposing running backs with an average of 4.85 yards per carry over their last three games. This should be a Carson smash week!
  3. Saquon Barkley ($8,300) – If for some reason you don’t want to play Carson, Barkley is certainly in play as one of your top tier running back options. Barkley is coming off of his best game of the season and should continue to put up significant fantasy points as this 2019 season comes to a close.

    Washington’s defense is an absolute mess right now and just gave up a career day to Miles Sanders… Barkley should be in line for an easy 18+ DraftKings points.
  4. Joe Mixon ($6,600) – Mixon is on fire. Miami’s defense is awful and currently rank 29th in run DVOA. Keep things simple here and lock in Joe Mixon and watch him rush for 115+ yards for the third straight week. He is by far my highest value at the running back position when baking in projections and price. Strong rumors of having the flu.
  5. Devonta Freeman ($6,000) – Enter value running back number two, Devonta Freeman. We’ve been attacking this Jacksonville run defense (31st in run DVOA) all season long and will continue to do so in Week 16 with Freeman. I have Freeman projected for 93 yards, one touchdown, and four catches which puts him right around 3.2x value.
  6. Melvin Gordon ($5,600) – I know Gordon was in the dog house a bit last week in the blowout against Minnesota, but this price is simply too cheap for a dual-threat running back with significant touchdown equity. Oakland’s run defense was their strength for most of the year but they’ve now crept down to 26th in run DVOA.

    Assuming the Chargers have no issues moving the ball through the air, Gordon should fine himself with plenty of red-zone work and get in the box at least once.
  7. Dion Lewis ($4,300) – Free square with Henry ruled out.
  8. DeAndre Washington ($4,000) – Josh Jacobs is probably done for the season. Washington is your free-square play of the week. I am 90% sure I’ll full fade him in GPPs, but he’s a lock for cash games.

Wide Receivers

  1. Michael Thomas ($9,300) – Tennessee’s secondary is banged up and are no match for Michael Thomas regardless of health. We all are aware of Michael Thomas’ quest for the NFL single-season receptions record (he needs just 13 catches from tying the record). Thomas is going to be fed, which is nothing new. He has the highest floor at the wide receiver position.
  2. Julio Jones ($8,000) – You probably can’t afford Julio Jones and Michael Thomas in the same NFL DFS Cash Games lineup unless you pay down at all three running back spots (which is entirely possible). Jones is at home, in a great match-up against Jacksonville corners’ Tre Herndon and A.J. Bouye.
  3. Tyler Lockett ($7,600) – Not a big fan of this price, but Lockett is back to 100% health and checks our box of being a slot receiver against the Cardinals. If you’re going to pay up for two receivers and can’t afford Julio Jones, Lockett is in-play, but probably best left for GPPs with a Seahawks’ stack.
  4. Amari Cooper ($6,700) – Amari Cooper seeing Ronald Darby for most of the day on Sunday has me licking my chops. Truthfully, I don’t even know what that phrase means, but whatever it implies is exactly how I feel about Amari Cooper this week. Terry McLaurin and Darius Slayton just destroyed this Philadelphia secondary in back-to-back weeks (mainly Ronald Darby)… Cooper is going to go off.
  5. Keenan Allen ($6,300) – He’s too cheap. Keenan Allen is going to be matched up with LaMarcus Joyner in the slot for Oakland and that is a match-up Allen should feast in. He may not have the slate-breaking ability his counterpart, Mike Williams has, but Allen has one of the highest receiver floors in all PPR formats.

    If you can’t afford Keenan Allen, use Mike Williams ($5,000). He is in just as good of a spot as Allen and is always one play away from hitting value.
  6. Tyler Boyd ($5,800) – Boyd highlights our weekly “pick on Jomal Wiltz” match-up. Boyd makes perfect sense at this price and offers a high-floor in GPPs as well. Boyd is one of my top plays on a points-per-dollar basis this week. Enjoy the fireworks.
  7. Diontae Johnson ($4,700) – We have to find some value at the wide receiver position and Johnson offers that. He’s clearly been Duck Hodges’ preferred target in the Pittsburgh offense and should have no problems hitting value against the Jets’ secondary.
  8. Tim Patrick ($3,700) – Patrick is more of a GPP play, but if for some reason you need a punt-play for salary relief, I’d prefer to use Patrick at home against the Lions’ secondary. Darius Slay didn’t shadow last week as Chris Godwin mainly plays inside, but I’m confident Slay will follow around Courtland Sutton for most of the day allowing Tim Patrick to have his way with Rashaan Melvin and Justin Coleman.

Tight Ends

  1. Zach Ertz ($6,400) – It’s Zach Ertz, use him if you can afford it.
  2. Austin Hooper ($4,400) – Hooper has been quiet since he returned from injury to the Falcons’ offense but he’s had two very tough match-ups against Carolina and San Francisco. Jacksonville has given up over 15 points to opposing tight ends over the last month and should offer Hooper a lot of opportunities to get back to where he was earlier in the season when he was priced up over $6k.
  3. Mike Gesicki ($3,600) – Gesicki is probably going to be the tight end I roll out in my personal NFL DFS Cash Games lineup. His price is incredibly cheap and he should have no problems putting up 10+ points against the Bengals. The targets have been there on a weekly basis for Gesicki ever since Preston Williams went down with injury. He’s a great play this week in terms of salary relief.

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Baltimore Ravens ($4,000)
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,900)
  3. Denver Broncos ($3,500)
  4. Indianapolis Colts ($3,300)
  5. Washington Redskins ($2,800)
  6. Dallas Cowboys ($2,600)

NFL DFS Cash Games Sample Lineup

QB: Russell Wilson
RB: Dion Lewis
RB: Devonta Freeman
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Michaels Thomas
WR: Tyler Boyd
TE: Austin Hooper
FLEX: DeAndre Washington
DST: Washington Redskins

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NFL DFS Cash Games – Week 15 Checkdown

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

Week 15 in DFS and Semi-Finals week for most of your season-long leagues! Hopefully, all of your teams are still in the hunt and you’re ready to continue cashing in your NFL DFS Cash Games. We added on to our incredible season so far here at Win Daily and welcome you all in for another week of cashing – last week’s Cash Game Checkdown included a sample lineup that AGAIN crossed the pay lines with over 160 DraftKings points!

Let’s get right back at it for Week 15 which has the main slate of 13 games.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections,wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you cancertainly use this information for other DFS websites. Please check back in on Saturday/Sunday morning for potential NFLDFS Cash Games updates!

If you have any questions and would like some further help whenbuilding your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of theirinvestments.

Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build forNFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles movingforward. For Week 15, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

  • Theplayer pool is huge again this week. There are a ton of great value plays atevery position which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimalbuilds.
  • MyNFL DFS Cash Game build for Week 15 will probably start with locking in ChrisCarson and Chris Conley (assuming Chark is OUT).
  • Somevalue plays that stick out are Eli Manning, Chris Conley, and Ian Thomas.
  • Plentyof value and positive game-scripts for the cheaper QBs.
  • Justbecause a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are notcash viable.

NFLDFS Cash Games Quarterbacks

  1. DeShaun Watson ($6,800) – DeShaun Watson under $7K is a joke. We always love picking on this Tennessee passing defense and Watson provides us with a high-floor that not a lot of other QBs on the board bring to the table due to his rushing ability. Watson’s coming off of back-to-back 28+ DraftKings’ point performances and should continue to put up big numbers this week.
  2. Jimmy Garoppolo ($6,100) – My savior from Week 14 is back in the write-up again this week with a home game against the Atlanta Falcons’ secondary who rank 26th in the NFL in pass DVOA. Shanahan is going to have an effective game-plan as he is incredibly familiar with a Dan Quinn defense. The 49ers also have the highest implied team total on the slate at 29.50 points… this should be another smash spot for this 49ers’ offense.

    They are an 11.5 point favorite in this one so maybe temper your expectations a little bit as this game-script seems to set up nicely for Raheem Mostert and the rest of the 49ers running backs.
  3. Kyler Murray ($5,600) – Kyler Murray at home against a banged-up Cleveland defense is something I’ll always be interested in. Murray hasn’t had a 20+ point fantasy performance since Week 11 but I think this is the week he gets right. The game has one of the highest totals on the slate currently sitting at 49 points.

NFL DFS Cash Games Running Backs

  1. Christian McCaffrey ($10,000) – Do we need to say anything about Christian McCaffrey? The floor is as high as anyone in the game right now.
  2. Saquon Barkley ($7,700) – Barkley has been struggling to put up points all season long but that is going to change this week against Miami, who ranks 29th in run DVOA. I expect the Giants to have a lead throughout this whole game and that they lean on Barkley in the red-zone and the check-down passing game Eli Manning loves to focus on. If Manning is starting, I love Barkley this week.
  3. Chris Carson ($7,500) – No Rashaad Penny this week. Lock in Chris Carson against the worst run defense in the NFL.
  4. Todd Gurley ($6,000) – Gurley is simply way too cheap in a game with the highest total on the slate. Gurley has been the main focus of this Rams’ offense over the past couple of weeks and should continue to see 20+ touches on Sunday. For this price and the anticipated workload, Gurley should be locked into NFL DFS Cash Games.
  5. David Montgomery ($5,500) – The workload has been continuing to go up for Montgomery over the past three weeks and now he’ll enter a juicy match-up against the Packers who rank 26th in run DVOA. Even the Washington Redskins’ running backs were able to carve up this Packers’ run defense as they total up 122 rushing yards, one touchdown, and an average of 4.5 yards per carry.
  6. Raheem Mostert ($5,200) – It is officially #MostertSzn. At this price and as a double-digit home favorite, I have full faith in Kyle Shanahan to know how to best utilize Mostert against Dan Quinn’s defensive scheme. Atlanta hasn’t been a match-up to target with opposing running backs this season, but they have given up over 24 DraftKings’ points to running backs over their past four games.

    San Francisco has the highest implied total on the slate and that should lead to plenty of opportunities for Mostert to do damage on the ground and in the red-zone.
  7. Patrick Laird ($4,500) – Excuse me while I go throw up. I never thought I’d ever write about Patrick Laird. He’s going to be chalk and will get a lot of volume. You only need 10 points out of him to hit value, so feel free to use him (I will not be).

Wide Receivers

  1. DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) – Hopkins has been as consistent as they come over the past two months. He’s a double-digit machine and will continue to offer DFS players a high-floor in Week 15. The Titans rank 23rd in pass DVOA and I fully expect Watson and Hopkins to have their way with this Tennessee secondary.
  2. Chris Godwin ($7,700) – Mike Evans is out for the season so there are a TON of targets to be had for the remaining wide receivers in Tampa Bay. Assuming Jameis Winston continues to chuck the football all over the field regardless of a wide receiver being double-covered, Godwin is going to be busy to end the season.

    I’m assuming Godwin is going to be lined up all over the field on Sunday and will draw a lot of Darius Slay in coverage. The volume will be high enough to lower my concerns with some shadow coverage by Slay. I’m confident he’ll do most of his damage in the slot like he usually does, so hopefully he stays inside as much as possible.
  3. Kenny Golladay ($7,200) – Similar situation in Detroit as there is in Tampa Bay. Marvin Jones was recently placed on the IR and this leaves a hefty amount of targets to be had for Golladay. This is a smash match-up against Tampa Bay in a game that is going to be played at a fast pace.
  4. Jarvis Landry ($6,700) – Landry is the only wide receiver consistently producing in the Cleveland offense. We love slot receivers against Arizona, so we’ll keep this one brief. Landry is a lock for 14+ DraftKings’ points and has a probable script for 3X value.
  5. DeVante Parker ($6,400) – Parker cleared concussion protocol and makes for a great cash game candidate as he’s a mortal lock for eight or more targets against a HORRIBLE New York Giants’ secondary who just cut Janoris Jenkins.
  6. Keenan Allen ($6,300) – I have no idea how Keenan Allen is so cheap and so under the radar this week. He is one of my top five at the position and I have him projected for 9-102-1. He’s going to have a big day against this Minnesota secondary.
  7. Golden Tate ($5,900) – My weekly write-up of picking on Miami slot corner, Jomal Wiltz. Look for Tate to come back in the DFS scene this week with a 15+ point performance.

    Honestly, everyone of these Giants’ pass-catchers are in play. Sterling Shepard ($5,400) and Darius Slayton ($4,700) are all in incredible match-ups against Miami.
  8. Chris Conley ($3,600) – Hello, Mr. Value. Chris Conley is going to be locked into my NFL DFS Cash Game lineups as long as D.J. Chark is out with injury. Keep an eye on Chark’s status, but it sounds like he’s doubtful to play. Conley should have his way with the Oakland secondary who rank 31st in pass DVOA.

    If you’d rather play Dede Westbrook ($4,600), feel free to do so. He’s in a great spot as well.

Tight Ends

  1. George Kittle ($6,200) – Kittle is a freak of nature. If you can afford him or Travis Kelce ($6,500), use them. Kittle is my top tight-end this week.
  2. Zach Ertz ($6,000) – Ertz is the top receiver in this depleted Eagles’ offense. I don’t think he’ll be as busy as we’ve seen in weeks past as the Eagles should be able to steamroll the Redskins. Having said that, Ertz has one of the highest floors at the position and is perfect for a cash game setup.
  3. Ian Thomas ($3,100) – I’m either paying up or paying down to Thomas at tight end this week. Simple as that. Olsen will not clear concussion protocol so this should be all systems go for Ian Thomas in a game where he should be heavily involved as the Panthers play catch-up with Seattle.

Honorable Mention (more for GPPs): Mike Gesicki ($4,000), Tyler Higbee ($3,900), O.J. Howard ($3,500).

Defense/Special Teams

  1. San Francisco 49ers ($3,800)
  2. Philadelphia Eagles ($3,400)
  3. Green Bay Packers ($3,000)
  4. Los Angeles Rams ($2,900)
  5. Chicago Bears ($2,400)

NFL DFS Cash Games Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Chris Carson
RB: Saquon Barkley
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Chris Conley
WR: Chris Godwin
TE: Ian Thomas
FLEX: Todd Gurley
DST: Chicago Bears

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NFL DFS Cash Games – Week 14 Checkdown

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

Welcome to Week 14 of the NFL Season! Hopefully you all made the playoffs in your season long leagues and are ready to continue cashing in your NFL DFS Cash Games. We’ve had an incredible season so far here at Win Daily and welcome you all in for another week of cashing – last week’s Cash Game Checkdown included a sample lineup that again crossed the pay lines with 152.82 DraftKings’ points!

Let’s get right back at it for Week 14 which has a main slate of 13 games. It’s safe to say that our player pools are going to be the biggest they’ve been in months.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you can certainly use this information for other DFS websites. Please check back in on Saturday/Sunday morning for potential NFL DFS Cash Games updates!

If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of their investments.

Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 14, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

  • UPDATE 12/5 – I’m most likely moving off of CMC to pay up at WR a bit more. TBD.
  • The player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at every position which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
  • My NFL DFS Cash Game build for Week 14 will probably start with locking in Devonta Freeman.
  • BILAL POWELL CHALK WEEK: It’s gross, but you probably can’t fade him in cash.
  • Plenty of value and positive game-scripts for the cheaper QBs. You can’t go wrong with Lamar Jackson, but you probably don’t need him.
  • Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.

NFL DFS Cash Games Quarterbacks

  1. Lamar Jackson ($7,400) – He is matchup proof and always cash viable.
  2. Aaron Rodgers ($6,800) – Rodgers at home, under $7k and going up against the Redskins’ secondary… where do we sign?
  3. DeShaun Watson ($6,500) – Simply just too low of a price for Watson at home. He’s going to put up 16+ DraftKings’ points despite a somewhat tough matchup against Denver.
  4. Ryan Tannehill ($5,800) – Oakland’s pass defense is terrible and Tannehill is absolutely in the zone right now averaging over 23 DraftKings’ points over his last six games.
  5. Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,600) – Love this price and I love this matchup. Garoppolo rarely has blow-up fantasy performances but if you take out last week’s matchup in the rain, against a stout Ravens’ pass defense, Garoppolo has averaged 24.45 DraftKings’ points in his previous four games.

    The Saints have a solid defense in general, but they’ve given up an average of 293 yards passing and over two touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in their last three games. If Garoppolo can get anywhere near that average, he’ll easily hit value at this very affordable price-tag.

NFL DFS Cash Games Running Backs

  1. Christian McCaffrey ($10,300) – Do we need to say anything about Christian McCaffrey? The floor is as high as anyone in the game right now.
  2. Nick Chubb ($8,000) – I am a little less high on Chubb as I would like to be, due to the fact that Kareem Hunt is clearly taking the majority of the running back passing work. Having said that, Chubb is still in play this week. Cincinatti ranks 27th in run DVOA and the Browns are almost a double-digit home favorite, which is always something I’m interested in when handicapping DFS running backs.

    I have Chubb projected for 22 touches, 119 all-purpose yards and a touchdown which is more than enough to hit value for us in cash.
  3. Leonard Fournette ($7,800) – Fournette has been PPR gold all season long and will continue to be the main focal point of this Jaguars offense. Over the last three games, Fournette has been targeted 30 times in the passing game and has came down with 25 receptions!

    The Chargers’ defense has been giving up over 30 DraftKings’ points per game to opposing running backs over the past month and will continue to get torched by Fournette this week. If for some reason he can’t get things going on the ground, he will make up for it in the passing game (the Chargers give up the 7th most receptions to opposing running backs). Fournette is one of my favorite cash plays on the slate.
  4. Melvin Gordon ($6,400) – This should be a positive gamescript for Gordon to play 65% or more of the Chargers’ offensive snaps (as I don’t see Jacksonville being able to run up the score as a three-point underdog). Jacksonville ranks 31st in run DVOA and have given up over 36 DraftKings’ points to opposing running backs over their last three games!
  5. Joe Mixon ($5,800) – Mixon is coming to life here as the 2019 NFL Season comes to a close as he’s averaged 15.5 DraftKings’ points per game during the last month. Cleveland has one of the weaker rush defenses in the league (ranked 23rd in run DVOA) and Mixon appears to finally have a three-down role and will continue to be active in both the running and passing attacks this week.
  6. Devonta Freeman ($5,400) – Smash spot for Freeman. He came back last week to a very heavy workload with over 65% of the Falcons’ offensive snaps. EVERYONE runs all over this Carolina defense and Freeman’s price is simply too low. Lock him in against the team ranked 32nd in run DVOA. Freeman is my favorite play on this slate when evaluating points-per-dollar.
  7. Alexander Mattison ($4,500) – Although Dalvin Cook claims he’s good to go for Sunday’s game against Detroit, I just don’t see that happening. This should be a very winnable game for the Vikings if Matt Stafford is ruled out, yet again. I don’t see Minnesota risking Cook’s health for the playoffs simply to suit up against a banged up Lions’ squad. If Cook misses, Mattison is an auto-play. Cook is IN, but Mattison is still in play for GPPs.
  8. Bilal Powell ($3,500) – Eat the chalk, I guess.

Wide Receivers

  1. Michael Thomas ($8,300) – This is a tough matchup on paper, but I’m almost positive Michael Thomas is my top WR for DraftKings’ cash games this week. Thomas was $2k more expensive two weeks ago. Take the savings.
  2. Davante Adams ($8,000) – We love Aaron Rodgers. We love his number one target who lines up all over the field and will dominate the Redskins’ secondary.
  3. Mike Evans ($7,200) – Evans is going to be matched up against Pierre Desir and Rock Ya-Sin all game long. This is a serious advantage for Mike Evans who is a lock to see eight or more targets each week and plenty of slate-breaking, touchdown upside.
  4. DeVante Parker ($6,900) – The price finally went up for DeVante Parker but he’s been playing like a $7,500 wide receiver lately. Fitzpatrick absolutely loves chucking him the ball and that won’t stop this week against the New York Jets. The price is a bit much for me, but it’s hard to not love Parker as he’s seen double-digit targets in each of the last four games.
  5. Odell Beckham ($6,300) – I’m expecting a big outing from this Browns offense against the Bengals who rank 31st in pass DVOA. The price keeps dropping for Beckham and this is a perfect time to take advantage of the savings. He should give B.W. Webb and William Jackson all they can handle in coverage.
  6. Tyler Boyd ($5,900) – Welcome back Tyler Boyd. As long as A.J. Green is injured, Boyd is almost a lock play in PPR formats at this price tag. Boyd is going to see a lot of T.J. Carrie in coverage against Cleveland and that is a matchup Boyd should feast in.
  7. Emmanuel Sanders ($5,800) – Sanders was priced up in the mid $6k range just a few weeks ago. Now is the time to buy in at $5,800 in a matchup where he will see a lot of P.J. Williams (arguably the worst cover corner in the NFL). This game may be a bit run-heavy on both sides, but I have confidence in Garoppolo and Sanders both hitting value this week.
  8. Robby Anderson ($5,100) – It seems every year Robby Anderson starts to come alive towards the end of the fantasy season. That time has arrived and Robby Anderson has been balling of late. Anderson is coming off of back-to-back 18+ fantasy point performances and is in an absolute smash spot against this Miami secondary who ranks dead last in pass DVOA.

    Anderson shouldn’t be considered a “safe” play, but I like his floor and obviously love his ceiling in all formats of fantasy football this week. I also really like Jamison Crowder ($5,300) here against Jomal Wiltz – and you all know I never like Crowder.
  9. Curtis Samuel ($4,900) – It was either D.J. Moore or Curtis Samuel for me this week. I gave the nod to Samuel as his price is significantly cheaper and I love the fact that he runs the majority of his routes in the slot and on the right side of the field where he’ll matchup against Kendall Sheffield and Isaiah Oliver (who are not good).
  10. Mike Williams ($4,500) – I don’t trust this play a whole lot, but if you need salary relief, Mike Williams is an excellent choice. These outside corners in Jacksonville are incredibly beatable and Mike Williams is always a deep ball away from hitting value.
  11. Marcus Johnson ($3,600) – I’ll play Johnson if and ONLY if T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell miss this game. With Chester Rogers out for the season, we saw Johnson play a significant role in the Colts’ passing game last week (92% of the snaps). We always like to pick on this Bucs’ secondary, so Johnson makes a lot of sense if you need a salary relief, punt play.

    Parris Campbell ($3,200) – Love Campbell as a punt-play now that he has been a full participant in practice for the first time in over a month. At this price, against this secondary, you can 100% use him in cash if the rest of your lineup is full of high-floor, high-ceiling players.

Tight Ends

  1. Darren Waller ($5,800) – Waller came back to life last week with a 20-point outing and should continue that success against the Titans’ defense who have given up over 18 DraftKings’ points per game to opposing tight-ends in their past three games.
  2. Jack Doyle ($4,800) – With Ebron out for the season, we saw Doyle jump into a significant role in this Colts’ passing attack. Doyle had 19.3 points last week and was one of our cash-game locks of the week. Tampa Bay is terrible at covering tight-ends… lock and load Mr. Doyle!
  3. Vance McDonald ($4,300) – I don’t think I’ll be playing McDonald, but this is your weekly tight-end against the Cardinals play.
  4. Ian Thomas ($2,500) – Hello value! It doesn’t appear Greg Olsen (concussion) will suit up for this game in Atlanta, so this should be all systems go for Ian Thomas. We saw Thomas excel in this role towards the end of last season when Olsen is out. This is as close as you’ll get to a cash game free-square this week.

Defense/Special Teams

  • Green Bay Packers ($4,000)
  • Minnesota Vikings ($3,800)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,500)
  • Baltimore Ravens ($2,900)
  • San Francisco 49ers ($2,700)
  • Indianapolis Colts ($2,400)

NFL DFS Cash Games Sample Lineup

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo
RB: Christian McCaffrey
RB: Devonta Freeman
WR: Tyler Boyd
WR: Parris Campbell
WR: Mike Evans
TE: Ian Thomas
FLEX: Melvin Gordon
DST: Pittsburgh Steelers

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NFL DFS Week 12 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & Sticks

Javier Prellezo
written by Javier Prellezo

The NFL DFS Week 12 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & Sticks focuses on WR and TE plays. The two also embark upon being the second wave to attack what will be a brutal Week 12 main slate.

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Week 12 NFL DFS With DFS Pro Javi & Sticks – WR and TE

Among the other topics DFS Pro Javi & Sticks discuss in the Week 12 Podcast is the favorite plays at WR and TE. Sticks and Javi are at a crossroads this week , but have some similar likes.

The duo also looks at the spots that could be DFS gold and the challenge that will come from finding good plays in a schedule lacking in quality DFS matchups.

In this Week 12 NFL DFS podcast, Sticks and Javi have have a discussion on where they see themselves focusing on. Javi seems to have a heavy focus on the Raiders and Jets game while Sticks is all in on some Lions, Tim Patrick, and other random plays that seem to work. There is a method to their madness as they continuously win each week.

Thank you for listening to the NFL DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms.

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NFL DFS GPP Advice – Stick’s Stacks for Week 12

brgrewe@gmail.com
written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Week 12 wasn’t as good as I would have liked it to be. We were on a hot run there for a while with our NFL DFS GPP entries based off of the main stacks on this article, but you can’t win them all. I love the way this Week 12 slate is shaping up, so let’s get right to it.

If you read the article and have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter or sign up for Premium Gold to join our Discord channel.

Like usual, it’s another great week to use 50% or more of your bankroll towards single entry cash games. Please check out my Cash Game Checkdown before you set your DFS lineups for Sunday.

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The purpose of this weekly article is to identify team/game stacks that we are going to use for an NFL DFS GPP. For those of you that don’t know, a “team stack” is simply multiple players from the same team (I rarely ever use more than three players on a given team).

A “game stack” is similar, except we are going to use players from both teams in a given game. Focusing on team stacks and game stacks is incredibly useful in the NFL DFS GPP environment. That being said, let’s get to this week’s top NFL DFS stacks for DraftKings!

Top NFL DFS GPP Game Stacks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-4) O/U (51)

This game in Atlanta looks to be the only game on the slate with a total higher than 48 points. I’m sure it will be extremely popular, but for good reason. Both of these defenses are pass funnels and both of these defenses rank towards the bottom of the NFL in pass defense DVOA. This game should host a lot of fireworks for DFS players.

The best part about getting exposure to this game is that we know who is going to be involved in the fantasy point production.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Chris Godwin ($7,200)
  • Mike Evans ($7,300)
  • Jameis Winston ($6,200)
  • Scotty Miller ($3,100) – Not sure what to think about Scotty Miller. Let’s classify him as an absolute punt-play who we should probably wait on. Week 11 was only the second time all year he cracked 50% of the snaps.

Atlanta Falcons

  • Julio Jones ($8,000)
  • Matt Ryan ($6,700)
  • Calvin Ridley ($6,500)

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2) O/U (48)

No longer interested in this game stack. Pivoting to Miami @ Cleveland. Will have some exposure to both teams, but will be underweight here.

The second game that I’m interested in stacking is going to be in Philadelphia. I’m undecided on what I think the pace of this game will play at, but there are plenty of playmakers in this game that should make for a nice game stack. Keep an eye on the status of Tyler Lockett as he is clearly one of the most appealing targets to use in DFS from this matchup.

Top NFL DFS GPP Team Stacks

Cleveland Browns

I didn’t think I’d ever write-up the Cleveland Browns, but they are currently sitting with a 28-point implied total and obviously have a lot of negativity going around in the media. This should be a statement game. This should be a game where Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense go off.

Miami ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA and 29th against the run. As of now, this is my favorite stack to invest in outside of Tampa Bay @ Atlanta.

  • Odell Beckham ($7,000)
  • Jarvis Landry ($6,300)
  • Nick Chubb ($8,100)
  • Baker Mayfield ($5,900)
  • Kareem Hunt ($5,600)

Miami Dolphins

I definitely don’t love the Dolphins by any means, but I do like this game’s chances at going well over the total of 45.5 points. Cleveland should be able to score at will and this Cleveland defense is banged up. Miami should be able to push the pace here and put up points.

  • DeVante Parker ($5,200)
  • Mike Gesicki ($3,400)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,000)
  • Allen Hurns ($3,300)
  • Kalen Ballage ($4,400) – Not high on him at all.
  • Patrick Laird ($3,400) – Punt play.

Detroit Lions

If you’re looking for some salary relief that offers a lot of upsides, give the Lions a serious look in your large-field GPPs. The Lions currently have an implied total of 23 points and rising. I probably won’t use three Lions in the same lineup, but I have a lot of interest in Kenny Golladay this week who should see a lot of Josh Norman.

  • Kenny Golladay ($6,600) – Top Five GPP WR play for me this week (assuming he’s around 5-8% ownership).
  • Jeff Driskel ($5,500)
  • Marvin Jones Jr. ($6,100)
  • T.J. Hockenson ($6,100)
  • Bo Scarbrough ($4,200) – Not very interested in stacking Scarbrough with Driskel, but could pair him with Detroit’s defense if you want to roll the dice on playing him. Probably better off using him on FanDuel if you want to take this risk.
  • Detroit Lions DST ($3,100)

Chicago Bears

The Bears are a mess, there is no getting around that. They will be incredibly low owned and have a very nice matchup against a Giants’ team that has allowed 25 or more points in all but one game all year (and that was the Redskins). It’s disgusting, but if Trubisky is healthy, I’ll be over the field in ownership with the Bears. They are a nice salary relief spot to afford other studs in your GPP lineup.

I’ll most likely throw in one of Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, or Saquon Barkley on the other side of my Bears stacks.

  • Allen Robinson ($6,500)
  • Taylor Gabriel ($4,200)
  • Mitch Trubisky ($5,100)
  • David Montgomery ($5,500)
  • Tarik Cohen ($4,800)
  • Anthony Miller ($3,500)

NFL DFS GPP – Sample Lineup

QB: Mitch Trubisky
RB: Saquon Barkley
RB: Alvin Kamara
WR: Odell Beckham Jr.
WR: Calvin Ridley
WR: Anthony Miller
TE: Vance McDonald
FLEX: Golden Tate
DST: Denver Broncos

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