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NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 6

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. We’ve absolutely smashed NFL DFS 4 out of the 5 weeks and this slate sets up for yet another successful week. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 6 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, for the stack options, you obviously do not need to use everyone listed. You can always just use one or two of those players if that fits your build more appropriately*

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson – His ownership is plummeting each day leading up to Week 6 and it makes a bit of sense due to their being so much value all over this slate. The AETY Model has Lamar Jackson as the far and away QB1 and I’m going to trust it. He hardly ran the ball last week due to gamescript and a lingering knee issue, but I’m going to trust that he’s good to go.

Philadelphia’s secondary is really banged up and this should be a matchup Jackson thrives in. Darius Slay is still in concussion protocol but is looking like he’ll suit up. If he happens to be inactive (sharp bettors in the US market think he still has a shot to miss this game) it’s wheels up for Lamar Jackson at under 10% ownership.

My favorite thing about Lamar Jackson is when you stack him up, you know who to stack him up with… one or two of the boys below. If you want to run it back with Zach Ertz and run double tight end, that will certainly be contrarian. Maybe Miles Sanders if you have the stomach for it.

Potential Stack(s):
– Hollywood Brown/Mark Andrews
DeShaun Watson – I’m just a Watson truther I guess. He’s given us the flame emoji on DraftKings each of the last two weeks and we’ll go back to well again this week. This game should be up in pace and offers a ton of salary relief on both sides of this game. With Tennessee as a decent-sized home favorite, I really like the gamescript going in Watson’s favor here. Quarterbacks in high-total games with rushing upside always have my interests.

There are so many different ways to stack him up this week and I like that… a lot.

Potential Stack(s):
– Fuller/Cooks
– Fuller/Cobb
– Cobb/Cooks

Potential Game Stack(s):
– Fuller/Cooks/Brown
– Fuller/Cooks/Brown/Henry
– Fuller/Cooks/Brown/Jonnu
– Fuller/Cobb/Brown
– Fuller/Cobb/Brown/Henry
– Etc… You get the point
Aaron Rodgers – The dude is on another planet right now and so is this offense… not to mention Davante Adams is back and 100% healthy. This Green Bay/Tampa Bay game now holds the highest total on the slate and we need to seriously take that into consideration when building NFL DFS GPP lineups. The educated portion of the betting public likes this game to go over the total and the AETY Model projects this game to have the most snaps played.

More snaps = more potential for fantasy production. Tampa Bay’s defense has been legit this season, but they lost their anchor on the defensive line, Vita Vea. These cornerbacks are good, but Green Bay’s offense and Davante Adams are better.

Lastly, in the BRAND NEW Adjusted Expected Team Totals (AETT) algorithm within the AETY Model, this is the only game that had a combined total greater than 42 points (which is an elite number for DFS production). For those who don’t know the purpose of AETT, please reach out to me on Discord or Twitter and I’ll make sense of it for you. Until then, just trust it.

Potential Stack(s):
– Adams/A. Jones
– Adams/A. Jones/Tonyan
– Adams/Tonyan
– Adams/MVS
– Adams/MVS/A. Jones

Potential Game Stack(s):
– Adams/Jones/Godwin
– Adams /Jones/Evans
– Adams/MVS/ Godwin
– Adams/Tonyan/Godwin
– Adams/MVS/Godwin/Evans
– Adams/A. Jones/Godwin/R. Jones (my personal favorite, but there’s too many to type out, lol.)

Honorable Mention: Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford

Running Backs

James Robinson – Jacksonville believe it or not, comes in as a top-10 run offense (DVOA) and they’re going up against the second-worst run defense in the NFL. Robinson is currently sitting around the 10% ownership mark and that is a sweet spot for me this week.

There’s so much chalk on this slate and Robinson is an excellent pivot up/down from 25% owned players like Mike Davis, Alexander Mattison, and David Montgomery. This Detroit/Jacksonville game has the second highest total on the board and we need to get exposure to it. You can run Robinson solo or mini-game-stack him with Kenny Golladay on the other side (my personal favorite 1-1 stack on this slate).
Aaron Jones – The highest total game on the slate and arguably the most versatile running back on this slate. Yes, the Bucs’ run defense has been incredible all season long, but they just lost Vita Vea. In addition to that, the Bucs are giving up over 7 receptions to opposing running backs per game!

As long as this game stays close (it will), Aaron Jones is going to get the lion-share of the snaps for this Packers’ explosive offense and score at least one touchdown (-240 to score, 4.5 receptions prop… sexy). A 5% Aaron Jones is something I’m all about.

Use him solo. Stack him with Rodgers. Game stack him with Godwin/Ronald Jones. Whatever it is that you want to do, I’ll likely sign off on it when targeting this late afternoon hammer for an incredibly chalk slate.
Ronald Jones – On the other side of Aaron Jones is Sia’s boy, Mr. RoJo. Jones and this Tampa offense have been incredibly efficient when running the football (7th in run offense DVOA) and will lean on their run game here against the weaker part of Green Bay’s defense (25th in run defense DVOA).

If Leonard Fournette is ruled out or limited in any capacity, Ronald Jones is going to be in for a massive workload in both the rushing and passing attack. He is WAY too cheap on both DFS platforms. Roll him out there and enjoy the fireworks in the afternoon game. I would have guessed his ownership would be damn near 20%, yet I can’t find any projections out there that have him higher than 10%.

Cheap exposure to the highest total game on this slate… sometimes good things like this just fall into our laps.
Todd Gurley (FanDuel ONLY) – I personally am not a Gurley truther by any means, but he sure as hell won us a lot of money last week. There hasn’t been a more active running back inside the green-zone than Todd Gurley this year. This game’s total is well over 50 points and we know both of these defenses suck. Gurley should be in for a two touchdown game and is a nice pivot away from Calvin Ridley chalk.

Although I like Ridley a great deal, Gurley’s multiple touchdown upside can clearly take away a ceiling game from Ridley in a cakewalk matchup. You can definitely ride Gurley on DraftKings if you feel inclined to do so, but I will not be.

Honorable Mention: D’Andre Swift, Myles Gaskin, Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, Joe Mixon

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams – Keeping this one simple. No one on this slate has the target share upside that Adams has. I’ve mentioned a few times how I love this game as an “under-the-radar” stack… even though it’s the highest total on Sunday’s board? Wild times.
Allen Robinson – David Montgomery is not that good, lol. He’s going to be 35-45% owned on this NFL DFS GPP slate and that’s mind-blowing. If there’s one guy to get close to Adams’ target share, it’s Allen Robinson. He’s the easy leverage play over all of the people who plug in D-Mont. The AETY Model absolutely loves Allen Robinson in this matchup against Rasul Douglas.
Chris Godwin – Everything I read says he’s 100% healthy. If this game shoots out like we all think it will, I will need a lot of exposure to a 5%-owned Chris Godwin. Mike Evans will be out of my player pool as he’ll have his hands full with Jaire Alexander all day. Even though Evans can certainly win that matchup, I’m keeping a condensed player pool in NFL DFS GPP lineups and will lean on Godwin to be my upside guy with Ronald Jones for the Bucs.
Kenny Golladay – I don’t care how chalky he is, I’m all in on Golladay against Chris Claybrooks and this league-worst pass defense. Golladay needs to be priced up at least $800 more on this slate.
Tyler Boyd – I can’t quit Tyler Boyd. He’s far and away the WR1 on the Bengals pass-happy offense. He’s priced like a mid-tier WR2 and gets a tasty matchup on the inside with Kenny Moore from Indianapolis. The Colts are a big home-favorite here and that should keep Burrow and Boyd going all game long.

At sub-5% ownership, LFG. Ride him solo or mini-stack him with your Jonathan Taylor lineups.
Laviska Shenault – I want to say Ghost and I were the first people in the DFS industry to roll out Shenault in high stakes GPPs (Week 2). “Sick brag, Nick… you’re a tool.” I agree, lol.

Now that we have that out of the way, I will have a lot of mini-stacks of one Jaguars player and then Kenny Golladay on the other side (maybe some D’Andre Swift as well). That is a focal point of my builds this week. In lineups that I cannot afford James Robinson/Golladay, I’ll likely go down to Shenault/Golladay mini-stacks.

Neither of these teams play a lick of defense and those mini-stacks are going to pay dividends to your main stacks you roll out in GPPs.

Honorable Mention: Calvin Ridley, Hollywood Brown, Justin Jefferson

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Mark Andrews – Far and away the highest ceiling tight end on this slate.
Hayden Hurst – this is the last time I’ll write about Hayden Hurst if he busts again this week. If we all expect this game to shoot-out, Hurst should be in a great spot to score a touchdown or two. With the relatively low volume he’s received this season, we’re likely banking on him scoring a long touchdown to smash value.

Having said that, for all qualified tight ends on this slate, Hayden Hurst sits fourth in average depth of target (ADOT)… If there’s any week for Hurst to splash and get a 30+ yard touchdown, it’s this week against Minnesota.
Irv Smith Jr. – I’m disgusted I have to write about a tight end (who splits time with another tight end) in a run-first offense, let that be clear, lol. But, Irv Smith is so damn cheap this week. I absolutely love the end product of my GPP lineups that have Smith in them, so I want to share that all with you.

Smith is #3 in the qualified ADOT metric for this week and in a game we all think blows up the scoreboards, Smith should have his best opportunity for a breakout game against Atlanta.

If he doesn’t go nuts, we DO NOT need a whole lot of production out of Irv Smith when he gives us the ability to roster virtually anyone we want in NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: Mike Gesicki, Zach Ertz, TJ Hockenson, Eric Ebron

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 6 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Week 5 was a perfect get right for our NFL DFS Cash Games and we did not get disappointed. Let’s stay hot for Week 6! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 6, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

The player pool is starting to slim down with all of these injuries/postponed games, but there are a ton of great value plays at every position this week.
Quarterback seems wide open, lot of nice options there.
David Montgomery & Alexander Mattison Chalk Week. I get the Montgomery play with his price, but Mattison is a bit expensive on DraftKings to be considered a “lock” in cash games. He’s perfect on FanDuel.
Looks like a great week to get value WRs – lock in AJ Brown in cash.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) – Very expensive, but likely holds the highest floor out of any quarterback on this slate (if you believe his knee is good to go). Per usual, I doubt I pay up for Jackson, but if your build finds a way to fit him in, do it.
AETY Projection: 24.51 points
DeShaun Watson ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – The AETY model can’t quit DeShaun Watson and for good reason, he’s hit 3x value the past two weeks. This matchup projects to be one of the highest in pace and offers a total over 53 points. Tennessee’s pass defense isn’t nearly as bad as I thought it would be this year (ranked 11th in DVOA), but I trust Watson and this healthy Houston wide receiving core to hit value in NFL DFS cash games.
AETY Projection: 23.12 points
Matthew Stafford ($6,300 DK / $7,300 FD) – Every week we attack this incredibly banged-up Jacksonville passing defense that ranks dead last in pass DVOA (and giving up over 22 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks). Stafford and the Lions are coming off of the bye and should be ready to rock. Locking in Stafford is an easy decision this week for cash games.
AETY Projection: 20.55 points
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,900 DK / $7,400 FD) – If you need more savings for the rest of your lineup (on DraftKings), Fitzpatrick is probably as low as I would go. Miami is a massive home favorite here which sets the table nicely for the running game, but Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins like to start games with a very high pace and that should bode well for Fitzpatrick against the 31st ranked passing defense.
AETY Projection: 20.28 points

Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($7,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – Pound for pound the top-dog running back on this slate and Houston’s run defense ranks 5th worst on this slate. I expected a huge game from James Robinson last week but Jacksonville abandoned the run rather quickly. Tennessee commits to running the football and Henry is likely to have the best odds to score in comparison to any other running back on the slate. He’s likely to come in > 40% in ownership in cash games this week.

The model has him projected for over 110 rushing yards… That’s juicy.
AETY Projection: 20.80 DK / 19.86 FD
Alexander Mattison ($7,200 DK / $7,000 FD) – Everyone is going to play Mattison this week in cash games. I can’t believe these DFS sites actually priced a backup RB coming into an RB1 workload correctly, that usually never happens. I hate this price point because Dalvin Cook himself is usually at this price point, but it’s probably good chalk to eat in NFL DFS cash games.
AETY Projection: 20.39 DK / 18.91 FD
James Robinson ($6,800 DK / $6,500 FD) – Incredibly cheap on FanDuel so that’s where you’re likely going to want to use him more frequently this week, but Robinson is certainly in play in all formats this week against the Lions’ 31st ranked run defense (in DVOA). They cannot stop the run and Robinson also has plenty of pass-catching upside if Detroit gets ahead early and forces Jacksonville into an up-paced gamescript.

Having said that, Devine Ozigbo is back for Jacksonville this week so it will be interesting to see if he takes some snaps away from J-Rob. I doubt it, but keep an eye on it.
AETY Projection: 18.27 DK / 16.61 FD
Jonathan Taylor ($6,400 DK / $7,300 FD) – Hopefully this game can be played despite the Covid-19 rumors going around. This is a sexy price for Taylor as a big home-favorite going up against a defense giving up over five yards per carry. Smash spot for Taylor.
AETY Projection: 18.66 DK / 17.41 FD
Ronald Jones ($6,000 DK / $5,800 FD) – Way too cheap on both sites (especially FanDuel). Green Bay and Tampa Bay currently have the highest total on this slate (54.5 points) and you’re going to want to get exposure to that. If Fournette is out, Jones is likely a lock-button for my cash game lineup against Green Bay’s 25th ranked run defense (in terms of DVOA), giving up almost five yards per carry.
AETY Projection: 16.72 DK / 15.03 FD
David Montgomery ($5,800 DK / $5,900 FD) – Its Carolina’s run defense. Todd Gurley just tore them up… lock in Montgomery in cash games (as everyone in the field will) and move to the rest of your build.
AETY Projection: 18.81 DK / 16.19 FD

Honorable Mention: Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD) – A healthy Davante Adams is always in play for NFL DFS cash games. He’s quite pricey, but he’s likely the slate leader in target share in the highest total game in Week Six.
AETY Projection: 17.59 DK / 14.35 FD
Calvin Ridley ($7,800 DK / $8,600 FD) – Similar to Adams, Calvin Ridley is likely viable for cash games on a weekly basis, especially in this matchup against Minnesota’s secondary (who has been improving a bit over the past few weeks). Ridley is too expensive for my builds, but I would not talk you off of Ridley in a shootout against Minnesota.
AETY Projection: 16.26 DK / 13.39 FD
Adam Thielen ($7,300 DK / $7,400 FD) – I hate to just list all of the top wide receivers on this slate, but any WR1 against Atlanta is in play for cash games. If you’re not using Mattison, use one of these Vikings receivers in Thielen or Justin Jefferson.
AETY Projection: 20.54 DK / 16.68 FD
Kenny Golladay ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD) – Always have interest in Golladay when he’s priced like a low-tier WR1. The sky is the limit for Golladay in this matchup against Jacksonville. We will see plenty of Marvin Jones in this one as well and that’s always a bit of a headache, so I do prefer to get my Detroit exposure through Stafford, but Golladay is a great value at these price points.
AETY Projection: 17.26 DK / 14.34 FD
AJ Brown ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD) – If you don’t want to roster Derrick Henry, roll with AJ Brown for your Tennessee exposure. Yes, Bradley Roby has looked incredibly impressive in shadow coverage (and he will shadow Brown on Sunday), but Brown is too talented for Roby to simply shut down AJ Brown. He’s too cheap and a perfect way to get exposure to this up-paced game against Houston.
AETY Projection: 16.34 DK / 13.52 FD
Chase Claypool ($5,200 DK / $5,500 FD) – I hate chasing recent blow-up games, but with Diontae Johnson ruled out, Chase Claypool becomes an easy value play I’m 100% going to roster in cash games. He’s absolutely massive and runs a 4.4 forty yard dash. I’m extremely excited to see this dude with a full workload of snaps. Against Cleveland’s secondary, he should have plenty of opportunities to show off his abilities yet again.
AETY Projection: 12.84 DK / 10.58 FD
Randall Cobb ($4,400 DK) – DraftKings value play. Tennessee has a very tough time covering slot wideouts and Cobb is one of my personal favorites. He’s still an excellent route runner and the target share continues to climb with DeShaun Watson on a weekly basis. I want a piece of Houston and Tennessee in my cash build this week.
AETY Projection: 11.26 DK

Honorable Mention: DeVante Parker, Jamison Crowder, Terry McLaurin, Laviska Shenault

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD) – Easily the top tight end on this slate. Roster him if you can afford him. The AETY Model doesn’t love his ability to get close to 2x value on FanDuel, but he has the highest touchdown upside of any tight end in football.
AETY Projection: 13.90 DK / 11.63 FD
Zach Ertz ($5,000 DK / $6,000 FD) – I know, he’s been borderline useless in fantasy this season, but the targets are consistently there for Zach Ertz. This Philadelphia passing attack is improving each week and getting closer to fully healthy. I like Ertz’ ability to hit 2x value this Sunday against the inside of this Baltimore pass-defense.
AETY Projection: 12.58 DK / 10.24 FD
Evan Engram ($4,900 DK / $5,600 FD) – Washington is giving up over 15 DraftKings’ points per game to opposing tight ends. I know there’s nothing really sexy about Engram thus far this season, but he should have a handful of opportunities to hit value. I don’t love it, but it’s a nasty slate for tight end options.
AETY Projection: 11.07 DK / 8.96 FD

Honorable Mention: Jonnu Smith, Hayden Hurst, Trey Burton, Eric Ebron, Irv Smith Jr.

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS cash games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Football Team
New York Giants
Miami Dolphins

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Alexander Mattison
RB: David Montgomery
WR: AJ Brown
WR: Chase Claypool
WR: Randall Cobb
TE: Mark Andrews
FLEX: Ronald Jones
DST: Miami

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 5

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. Week 4 was a bit of a bust and I’m quite pissed on how we missed on so many players that I loved, but we will right the ship here in Week 5. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

DeShaun Watson – Absolutely in love with DeShaun Watson yet again for Week 5. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA and Bill O’Brien is no longer calling the plays. At 5-10% ownership, I’ll roll out a lot of Watson this week.

I love the Jaguars side of this ballgame as well so feel free to game-stack this one as many wats as you can.
Kyler Murray – Kyler is going to come in sub-5% ownership… Do we need to say more? I don’t love any Jets coming back on the other side to game stack it, but you could do worse than punting a Chris Herndon or Jeff Smith. I smell a 3-passing touchdown game from Kyler (in addition to his rushing upside). One of those TD’s will be to a low-owned Christian Kirk.
Gardner Minshew – Someone pinch me, I never write-up Gardner Minshew, but he looks damn good on the AETY Model this weekend. I love this games ability to shootout and go well over the high total 54 points. I’ll have more exposure to this game with Watson, but I’m going to have plenty of Minshew and these pass catchers as well.

Honorable Mention: Jimmy Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes

Running Backs

James Robinson – More exposure to this HOU/JAX game is something I’m going to be very interested in. Houston’s defense is giving up ~5 yards per carry to opposing running backs and also giving up plenty of receptions to them. Robinson is a 3-down back in a great matchup in a game that I love to stack up.
James Conner – Philadelphia’s run defense ranks right there in the middle of the pack in terms of run defense DVOA, so it’s not like this is a matchup made in heaven. But, the AETY Model really likes Conner’s ability to rack up yardage here and he’s likely to be 5-8% owned on this slate. If you’re looking for a pivot off of CE/Hunt/Elliott, Conner has plenty of upside at 70% less ownership than the trio above.
Josh Jacobs – Kansas City’s run defense is not good with or without Chris Jones being healthy as they rank 27th in run DVOA. If Gruden has half a brain, he’s going to ride Jacobs into the ground to keep Mahomes and this is explosive offense off the field as long as possible. Look for Jacobs to have a 20+ point fantasy outing with 3-5 receptions. If he can get in the box, he’ll be a great addition to your GPP lineups.
Antonio Gibson – He’s $5K on DraftKings. I’ll need a lot of savings for most of my builds and Gibson is a player with a very unique skillset. If he can finally get some passing catching work with Mr. Dump-off, Kyle Allen, Gibson’s floor is realistically 3X value on this low salary.

Honorable Mention: Todd Gurley

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins – a 10% owned Hopkins is all I should need to say. The Jets’ secondary is awful and Hopkins target share is second-to-nobody on this slate.
Tyreek Hill – I love to writeup speedy pass catchers against the Las Vegas secondary. Hill is projected in the top-5 for receiving yards this weekend in the AETY Model and should realistically be 15-20% owned in NFL DFS GPP tournaments… not 5-10%.
JuJu Smith-Schuster – Your weekly pick on Nickell Robey-Coleman addition to the GPP article. Schuster is way too talented and owns a massive size advantage over Robey-Coleman. With Darius Slay spending most of his day on the outside with Diontae Johnson, Smith-Schuster should be in a sneaky big day.
DJ Chark – More exposure to this JAX/HOU shootout. Bradley Roby started the season strongly against Tyreek Hill and Marquise Brown, but I saw enough last week when Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen did whatever they wanted in the Minnesota passing attack. Chark is a main piece of my JAX/HOU game-stacks.

Laviska Shenault is also in an incredible spot against Vernon Hargreaves. I’ll have a ton of him as well this weekend for the salary relief and high-floor.
Devante Parker – This is a game with a high total that no one seems to be talking about. Parker is a #1 wide receiver priced under $6K (on DraftKings). That is something I look for every single week and this is a matchup where he can succeed in against a depleted 49ers’ secondary. You can mini-game stack him up with Kittle on the other side.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd, Christian Kirk, Sammy Watkins, Isaiah Ford, Hollywood Brown, CeeDee Lamb

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Travis Kelce – he’s the best PPR tight-end in the NFL and absolutely dominates the Raiders, historically. While everyone jams in CEH, you can pivot to the Chiefs’ passing attack for some differentiation in your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
Darren Waller – On the other side of your Chiefs stacks, roll out Waller. Hell, you can go double tight-end with Kelce if you’d like. The Raiders are 11-point underdogs here and will be chasing points which bodes very well for their top receiver, Darren Waller.
Hayden Hurst – Everyone wants to stack up CAR/ATL, but no one is playing Hayden Hurst? Julio Jones is likely to miss this game and that’s going to open up plenty of opportunity for Hayden Hurst. He’s going to score a touchdown on Sunday.
Eric Ebron – The Eagles are giving up over 18 DraftKings points to opposing tight-ends. Ebron is a red-zone monster and should easily find the box in this matchup at a very low price point and little-to-no ownership in NFL DFS GPP tournaments.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, Dalton Schultz

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Finally, we had a down week in NFL DFS Cash Games last week. I’m super pissed off on how much of a miss Kenyan Drake and Darrel Henderson were, but we’ll get right back on the success train this week. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 5, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

The player pool is starting to slim down with all of these injuries/postponed games, but there are a ton of great value plays at every position this week.
Dak Prescott chalk week… I’m not a fan, but I get it.
Mike Davis chalk week – probably a must play in cash games. Likely CEH as well (for me at least).
Looks like a great week to get value WRs
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) – Crazy expensive and likely not to crack my cash game lineup, but it’s Patrick Mahomes. The floor is incredibly high with a 33.5 point implied team total against this putrid Las Vegas secondary.
AETY Projection: 24.62 points
Dak Prescott ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD) – You’ve all seen what Dak has been doing, lol. I’m still not buying in that the Giants can keep this one close and keep Dak’s foot on the gas pedal, but this Dallas defense is so bad that it’s unlikely they blow anyone out this year. As much as I hate it, Prescott is just fine for cash games this week.
AETY Projection: 22.95 points
Kyler Murray ($7,200 DK / $8,300 FD) – Half man, half quarterback, and half running back. Kyler’s rushing floor speaks for itself and he’s likely to be in play for cash games on a weekly basis. I worry about the Jets’ ability to keep this game close, but Kyler is good for 19+ fantasy points every week.
AETY Projection: 23.18 points
DeShaun Watson ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – Yep, I’m going back to the well of DeShaun Watson. The Jaguars are ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA, Houston’s offense is relatively healthy, Bill O’Brien is gone, etc. etc. I think this game has crazy shootout ability and I love the price-point here for DeShaun Watson. Hopefully he looks to do some damage on the ground as well. Watson in a dome with a 30 point implied team against a brutal defense is plenty for me to go back.
AETY Projection: 23.83 points
Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD) – Hello, Mr. Value. Bridgewater’s price is criminally low against this Falcons’ defense (ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA). Matt Rhule’s offense has been quite productive and will not be slowed down in Atlanta this weekend. Bridgewater is the perfect pay-down QB for NFL DFS Cash Games.
AETY Projection: 20.93 points

Honorable Mention: Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew, Jimmy Garoppolo

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD) – Hard to not love Elliott this week despite Dallas losing yet another key offensive lineman for the season. I’m not likely to jam in Elliott into my cash game lineup, but it makes a lot of sense with the high Vegas total in this matchup against the Giants.

Low-key, the Giants have been incredibly stout against opposing running backs (limiting then to under 3.7 yards per carry), but Elliott is just so active in this offense (both rushing and receiving) that it makes him quite difficult to fade… especially when 30% of the field is likely to use him in NFL DFS Cash Games.
AETY Projection: 22.51 DK / 20.74 FD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD) – CEH’s price makes it rather easy for me to fade Zeke Elliott in cash games. The snap counts continue to rise in favor of CEH and they’re an 11-point home favorite. Not to mention Las Vegas is the 30th ranked run defense. This one is easy, lock in CEH.
AETY Projection: 20.27 DK / 18.62 FD
Mike Davis ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD) – Not going to lie to you, I was never a believer in Mike Davis, but his usage alone has made me a believer. It’s relatively cheap exposure to this CAR @ ATL shootout and everyone is going to roster Mike Davis. In cash, it makes a lot to sense to roll him out there. Atlanta’s run-defense isn’t half bad, but Davis is simply too active in the passing game to pass-up. He needs to be priced up near $7K.
AETY Projection: 20.99 DK / 18.73 FD
James Robinson ($6,700 DK / $6,600 FD) – Damn near a freesquare on FanDuel, James Robinson is a fine cash game and GPP play this week against the 29th ranked defense in terms of run DVOA. Did you watch what Dalvin Cook just did to this defense? He’s no Dalvin, but he’s clearly a 3-down back for Jacksonville. He’ll be very active in this shootout on Sunday.
AETY Projection: 20.57 DK / 18.99 FD
Kareem Hunt ($6,500 DK / $7,000 FD) – I always love Kevin Stefanski running backs (usually it’s Nick Chubb… RIP for now) and will continue to love em again in Week 5. Chubb is going to be in for a big workload against a very stout Indianapolis defense, but I’ll back this outside-zone run scheme any day of the week. Cleveland’s offensive line is incredible and will pave plenty of lanes for Hunt to hit value.
AETY Projection: 18.79 DK / 17.13 FD
Jerick McKinnon ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – If Mostert misses this game, I’m simply locking in Jerick McKinnon on DraftKings. The AETY Model loves this matchup for San Francisco running backs and McKinnon is in for a nice day if Mostert can’t suit up.
AETY Projection: 18.28 DK / 16.53 FD
Antonio Gibson ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD) – If you need some salary relief, Antonio Gibson is your man this weekend. The Rams defense is very solid but they’re getting absolutely carved up by good running backs (averaging 5.0 yards per carry and 28th in run defense DVOA). I prefer Gibson more in GPPs, but if his salary makes the rest of your lineup sexy, ride him in cash games.

We all know what Kyle Allen did with CMC last season. It’s checkdown time (let’s just hope those don’t all go to JD McKissic).
AETY Projection: 14.65 DK / 13.32 FD

Honorable Mention: David Johnson, Josh Jacobs

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley ($7,500 DK / $8,300 FD) – It’s very likely that Julio Jones is going to miss this game with his hamstring injury. This game is everyone’s favorite shootout so make sure you get a lot of exposure to Ridley if you’re into this game. Rasul Douglas and Donte Jackson do not have what it takes to contain Ridley at home in the dome… and we all know Atlanta’s defense is not going to get stops. It’s a Ridley Sunday.
AETY Projection: 18.30 DK / 15.00 FD
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,700 DK / $7,300 FD) – No one is going to play JuJu, but this matchup against Nickell Robey-Coleman on the inside of this Philly secondary is one of the nut matchups in NFL DFS. You likely should just get your JuJu exposure in GPPs, but this is too good of a spot to leave him off this article.
AETY Projection: 15.74 DK / 12.87 FD
Will Fuller ($6,500 DK / $6,600 FD) – Jacksonville’s secondary is awful. Enough said. We love Watson and we love Fuller.
AETY Projection: 15.28 DK / 12.77 FD
DJ Chark ($6,500 DK / $6,600 FD) – Great price across the board for DraftKings and FanDuel. Chark is by far the #1 receiving threat on this Jacksonville offense and he’s likely to see 9+ targets in this shootout. Bradley Roby has been solid, but Chark is going to feast on him on Sunday. This is a mismatch made in heave for Minshew and Chark.
AETY Projection: 15.32 DK / 12.64 FD
CeeDee Lamb ($6,000 DK / $5,900 FD) – Darnay Holmes may be the worst slot-cornerback in the NFL. CeeDee Lamb seems to be getting a full run in this Dallas offense and that’s starting to phase out Michael Gallup just a bit. Lamb is in a smash spot in this matchup and has the world of talent to bring a lot of upside to the table here against the Giants. Cash, GPP, whatever it is, Lamb is a top-10 play for me this weekend.
AETY Projection: 14.23 DK / 11.75 FD
Robby Anderson ($5,900 DK / $6,200 FD) – No need to go deep into this one. It’s cheap exposure to this Carolina passing attack against Atlanta’s secondary. Both Robby Anderson or DJ Moore make perfect cash game plays this week.
AETY Projection: 17.70 DK / 14.52 FD
DeVante Parker ($5,900 DK / $6,400 FD) – Miami is a 9-point underdog on the road against a San Francisco secondary that is extremely beat up. Parker is a #1 wide receiver priced under $6K… That’s something I’m always targeting in NFL DFS. I don’t quite agree that the 49ers should be this big of a favorite, but I do love this matchup for Parker. Way too cheap.
AETY Projection: 13.66 DK / 11.12 FD

Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, Russell Gage, Olamide Zaccheaus

Tight Ends

Not going to do much write-ups for the tight-ends, there’s so many in play this week.

Travis Kelce ($6,400 DK / $7,800)
George Kittle ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD)
Zach Ertz ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)
Evan Engram ($4,600 DK / $5,500 FD) – cheapest quality piece of exposure to the Dallas / New York game. He’s incredibly popular this week so I’m fine with you eating this chalk in cash games.

Honorable Mention: Hayden Hurst, Darren Waller, Chris Herndon, Eric Ebron

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
Washington Football Team

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Teddy Bridgewater
RB: CEH
RB: Antonio Gibson
WR: DJ Chark
WR: DeVante Parker
WR: Robby Anderson
TE: Evan Engram
FLEX: Kareem Hunt
DST: Browns

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 4

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. We’ve absolutely smashed Weeks One, Two, and Three… and will continue to do so this week! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 4 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*This week, due to crazy amounts of work and late week cancellations/injuries, I’m just going to list out the players I have interest in. Be sure to tune in to the Sunday NFL Livestream tomorrow morning at 11AM EST for further explanations*

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

DeShaun Watson – Great for cash, great for GPPs. He’s going to be popular, but we’ve been picking on this Minnesota defense all season long. No need to stop now.
Josh Allen – not much to say, he’s been going nuts and this Las Vegas defense does not scare me away from Allen at all. I do question Vegas’ ability to keep this one close, but Allen is always in play.
Matthew Stafford – there’s simply no one healthy in this New Orleans’ secondary. Lattimore and Jenkins are both out and somehow that leads to PJ Williams being their top corner. Yikes.
Kyler Murray – Everyone wanted to jam him in last week but now no one is playing him against 28th ranked defense in pass defense DVOA?
Joe Burrow – Zac Taylor’s offense throws the ball over 45 times a game… Jacksonville is ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA. All of the Bengals pass-catchers are healthy. Let’s go Joe for NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara – don’t care about his ownership. The dude is the only offensive weapon on this New Orleans’ offense posting a 7.5 reception prop… That’s wonderful. It’s hard to fade this guy in any lineup.
Dalvin Cook – On the other side of Houston stacks, it makes a lot of sense to roster the lead back in one of the most potent running schemes in the NFL.
Nick Chubb – Not sure this game actually shoots out at all. Chubb is always in my player pool… even more so if Hunt misses this game.
Josh Jacobs – The Raiders don’t have many other weapons healthy in this offense right now. Jacobs’ workload is likely to be second to nobody against the Bills’ defense that ranks 26th in run defense DVOA.
Jonathan Taylor – I mention it every week, you can run all over Chicago. Taylor’s price is in an awkward spot with Henderson and Drake below him, but I’ll have a lineup or two with Taylor.
Darrell Henderson Jr. – 13-point home favorite. The Giants have actually been rather stout against the run, but with no Akers, I’ll trust the talent and the Vegas numbers.
Kenyan Drake – he’s a running back going up against the Panthers… don’t get too cute and forget about him.

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins – Ownership projections for ~5%? I know he’s questionable, but if he’s a go tomorrow, you’ll need some Hopkins.
DK Metcalf / Tyler Lockett – they’re the top WRs on this slate in a cake matchup.
Mike Evans – Always interested in a sub-10% owned Mike Evans. Chris Godwin is out, so Evans should be heavily relied on.
Kenny Golladay – see Stafford writeup.
Jarvis Landry
CeeDee Lamb
Will Fuller / Brandin Cooks / Randall Cobb – see writeup on Watson.
Tyler Boyd / AJ Green
Justin Jefferson
Hunter Renfrow

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Mark Andrews
Mike Gesicki
Logan Thomas
Evan Engram

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups! Make sure to tune into the Livestream for in-depth reviews of each game and all of the plays above.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 4 Cash Games Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Hopefully everyone enjoyed ANOTHER huge week of cashing in Week 3 NFL DFS Cash Games! It’s officially NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS Cash Games lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 4, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

The player pool is starting to slim down with all of these injuries. There are a ton of great value plays at QB/WR/RB, but TE is getting slim. There should be a lot of different optimal builds this weekend.
Looks like a safe week for your Quarterback. Don’t get too cute when Mahomes, Jackson, Prescott, Murray, Allen, Watson, and Wilson are all on the same slate.
It’s Alvin Kamara chalk week – MUST PLAYS in cash games
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Games Quaterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD) – Another week of backing Russell Wilson. The dude is on another planet right now and the model likes him (as everyone’s does this week). Wilson has a whole boatload of weapons at his disposal and faces up against a brutal pass defense (25th in pass defense DVOA) with Miami.

Regardless of Miami’s ability to keep it close, Wilson is going to have a solid floor. He’s quite pricey though…
AETY Projection: 25.38 points
Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD) – It’s Patrick Mahomes and he’s not the most expensive (or the second most expensive) quarterback on the slate. No need to dive into this one in great detail.
AETY Projection: 23.50 points
Josh Allen ($7,300 / $8,600 FD) – I don’t know when Josh Allen is not going to be in play this year. Similar to Wilson, Josh Allen is a man on a mission this season and offers DFS players one of the highest floors in NFL DFS Cash Games. Ride him against this Las Vegas secondary.
AETY Projection: 23.03 points
Kyler Murray ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) – He’s damn near a running back and goes up against the 28th ranked pass defense DVOA in Carolina. There aren’t many safer plays than Murray on a weekly basis.
AETY Projection: 24.02 points
DeShaun Watson ($6,600 DK / $7,800 FD) – I’ve talked about this Minnesota secondary (or lack thereof) on a weekly basis every week this season as one of the best matchups for opposing quarterbacks. Fire up Watson in this smash spot in a must-win game for a motivated Houston team at home. The rushing upside paired with the matchup make this price-point the best value at the QB position.
AETY Projection: 24.32 points

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, DeShaun Watson, Matthew Stafford

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($8,000 DK / $8,800 FD) – Over 40% of the field is going to roster Alvin Kamara in cash games this weekend. There’s absolutely no reason to fade that in cash. Hell, it’s hard to fade him in GPPs.

Update: NO MICHAEL THOMAS = MORE KAMARA. Lock him in for cash games.
AETY Projection: 25.27 DK / 22.18 FD
Joe Mixon ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD) – Good lord the price on Joe Mixon is way too low. I get that he hasn’t done much at all this season, but he’s still Joe Mixon. Mixon finally received over 70% of the snaps last week (Ghost and I called that on the Livestream… boom) but the production hasn’t shown up yet. Mixon is likely in for a big game soon and at this price and chalk-ownership, lock him into your cash game lineup.
AETY Projection: 17.81 DK / 16.57 FD

Injury concerns
Dalvin Cook ($7,600 DK / $8,700 FD) – Hello, my boy, Dalvin Cook. Thank you for the points last week! The AETY Model really likes Dalvin Cook again this week as you can run all over the Texans who rank 24th in run defense DVOA. Pair that with a Gary Kubiak outside-zone running scheme and you’re in for another big day.
AETY Projection: 23.01 DK / 21.32 FD
Kenyan Drake ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – We always lock in the RB1 against the Panthers. Week in, week out, it is the nuts matchup and I don’t see that changing this week. If your build can afford him, use him. Reminder: don’t pair him up with Kyler Murray in cash.
AETY Projection: 18.01 DK / 16.90 FD
David Johnson ($5,600 DK / $6,700 FD) – Everything about Minnesota’s defense is dreadful and we need some value on this slate. I’m not in love with anything in David Johnson’s game, but he offers us salary relief and a decent floor in PPR with all of the pass catching. I don’t see either defenses being able to stop one another, so DJ should have a solid workload. I don’t love it, but he’s in play for cash.
AETY Projection: 17.49 DK / 15.96 FD
Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – If Cam Akers is out, I’ll certainly have some interest in Henderson at home as a 13-point favorite. We don’t need to get too deep here, that’s a great spot for home-favorite running backs.
AETY Projection: 15.31 DK / 14.16 FD

Honorable Mention: Mike Davis, Ezekiel Elliott, Devin Singletary (lock in cash if Moss is out), Myles Gaskin, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson, Carlos Hyde (if Carson is out)

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500 DK / $8,700 FD) – Super expensive, but always in play for cash games with this target share. I probably cannot afford him in NFL DFS Cash Games, but I won’t tell you not to use him.
AETY Projection: 20.96 DK / 16.75 FD
DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK / $6,900 FD) / Tyler Lockett ($7,000 DK / $7,500 FD) – They are both in absolute smash spots against Miami’s secondary in a game with a total over 54 points. I’m likely to ride with Metcalf due to the price savings, but they’re both in incredible spots.
Metcalf AETY Projection: 18.25 DK / 15.42 FD
Lockett AETY Projection: 19.38 DK / 15.81 FD
DJ Moore ($5,600 DK / $6,800 FD) – He’s simply way too cheap on DraftKings in a game with a total of 51 points and a gamescript where the Panthers should be chasing points. I’m not worried about this Arizona secondary whatsoever. Carolina is a pass-first offense and Moore is being fed with targets on a weekly basis. He’s likely everyone’s pay-down receiver in cash games.
AETY Projection: 17.37 DK / 14.21 FD
Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD) – This Dallas secondary is in absolute shambles. Literally every wide receiving core is tearing them to shreds. I know Cleveland is one of the best run offenses in the NFL, but there will be plenty to go around for Beckham against Dallas corners’ Jourdan Lewis, Daryl Worley, and Trevon Diggs.
AETY Projection: 16.82 DK / 13.42 FD

*If Odell misses this game or is limited in any capacity, Jarvis Landry ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD) is certainly in play.
Kenny Golladay ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – This is the cheapest we’ll ever see Golladay again, so I’m likely to jam him in my cash game lineup. Allen Lazard and banged up Green Bay pass catchers just torched this New Orleans secondary. This is a matchup we used to fear, but this defense is not what it used to be.

UPDATE: Janoris Jenkins and Marshon Lattimore both OUT. Advantage Golladay.
AETY Projection: 15.46 DK / 12.76 FD
Tyler Boyd ($6,100 DK / $6,000 FD) – Always in for rostering Tyler Boyd in NFL DFS Cash Games. The price hiked up a bit from last week when we smashed him into our GPP lineups, but the matchup is just as pristine this week against DJ Hayden on the inside of Jacksonville’s secondary.
AETY Projection: 13.65 DK / 10.90 FD
Hunter Renfrow ($4,600 DK / $5,300 FD) – They literally have no one else healthy besides Nelson Agholor and Zay Jones. Renfrow is really only in play for DraftKings with the full-point PPR setup, but you all know how much I love to pick on Buffalo’s slot-corner, Taron Johnson.

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Justin Jefferson, AJ Green, Zach Pascal, Preston Williams

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($6,800 DK / $7,600 FD) – Best pass-catching tight-end in football. Play him if you can afford him.
AETY Projection: 16.58 DK / 13.79 FD
Hunter Henry ($4,600 DK / $6,100 FD) – No idea why he’s priced under $5K. This one looks like a layup with the rapport Henry and Herbert have showed us thus far.
AETY Projection: 12.59 DK / 10.07 FD
Logan Thomas ($3,500 DK / $4,900 FD) – Washington is going to be chasing points early and often in this game against Baltimore. Tight ends have had a lot of success against Baltimore this season and you know we’re likely to need salary relief this week. Logan is an excellent punt-play for NFL DFS Cash Games.
AETY Projection: 10.07 DK / 7.97 FD

Honorable Mention: Mike Gesicki, Evan Engram, Jimmy Graham

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts
Cincinatti Bengals
Tampa Bay Bucs

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup (DK)

QB: DeShaun Watson
RB: Alvin Kamara
RB: Mike Davis
WR: Kenny Golladay
WR: DK Metcalf
WR: Hunter Renfrow
TE: Logan Thomas
FLEX: Darrell Henderson Jr.
DST: Bengals

Good luck to all!

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Hopefully everyone enjoyed ANOTHER huge week of cashing in Week 2 NFL DFS Cash Games! It’s officially NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 3, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

The player pool is starting to slim down with all of these injuries. There are a ton of great value plays at WR/RB, but QB and TE are getting slim. There will not be a lot of different optimal builds this weekend.
Miles Sanders chalk week – Play him in cash games!
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7,300 DK / $8,700 FD) – Another week of backing Russell Wilson. The dude is on another planet right now and the model loves him (as everyone’s does this week). Wilson has a whole boatload of weapons at his disposal and faces up against a bottom-half pass defense (in terms of DVOA) with Dallas. Not to mention, the total in this game is at 56, lol.
AETY Projection: 24.74 points
Kyler Murray ($6,800 DK / $8,400 FD) – Not a whole lot to say about Kyler Murray besides “I told you so”. Every SiriusXM show we did this summer I mentioned this will be the first year I “reach” on a QB in the 5th or 6th round for Kyler Murray. He’s damn near a running back and goes up against the 24th ranked pass defense DVOA in Detroit. There aren’t many safer plays than Murray this week.
AETY Projection: 25.35 points
Cam Newton ($6,700 DK / $7,700 FD) – The AETY Model LOVES Cam Newton this weekend against the Las Vegas Raiders who apparently the public thinks are a good team after beating New Orleans on Monday Night. Cam is going to have a field day with this defense. My only concerns are the ability of a banged-up Raiders offense being able to keep the pace moving and forcing Newton to continue moving the football.
AETY Projections: 24.42 points
Mitch Trubisky ($5,700 DK / $7,500 FD) – We say it week in, week out… the Atlanta Falcons are the nuts matchup for opposing QBs coming in at 28th in pass defense DVOA. If you need salary relief, Trubisky is your guy this week despite how ugly the points may look.
AETY Projections: 19.07

Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz

Running Backs

Miles Sanders ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD) – It’s Sanders’ Week, plain and simple. He’s incredibly low priced for the floor/upside and likely to be rostered by over 60% of cash game players this week. Cincinnati’s run defense ranks 25th in DVOA and is going to have a hard time keeping up with a 3-down back like Sanders at home. Use him.
AETY Projection: 20.42 DK / 18.92 FD
Dalvin Cook ($7,600 DK / $8,600 FD) – With Barkley and McCaffrey out, this slate is missing its true #1 running back. The AETY Model really likes Dalvin Cook this week and for good reason: you can run all over the Titans who rank 22nd in run defense DVOA. Pair that with a Gary Kubiak outside-zone running scheme and you’re in for a big day.
AETY Projection: 19.99 DK / 18.37 FD
Kenyan Drake ($6,000 DK / $6,500 FD) – He’s simply too cheap and also a guy that’s going to be over 40% in cash game ownership. We love picking on Detroit’s run defense (insert all of your screenshots of rostering Aaron Jones last weekend) and can certainly go back to the well in NFL DFS Cash Games this week. I hate using two players on the same team in cash (especially QB/RB), but this week, it’s OKAY if you do it with Kyler and Drake. I still don’t prefer it.
AETY Projection: 18.56 DK / 16.64 FD
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – He’s probably too expensive for my builds this week and I’d truthfully rather roster a Dallas wide-receiver, but it’s hard to not love Elliott every week. Seattle’s run defense is not nearly as bad as the public thinks. I’m not going to play him in cash, but he’s always cash viable with that volume.
AETY Projection: 22.01 DK / 20.32 FD
Jonathan Taylor ($7,000 DK / $6,700 FD) – Can’t believe DraftKings priced him up so high, but on FanDuel, you probably need to lock him in as an 11-point home-favorite against a minor-league Jets’ team.
AETY Projection: 19.07 DK / 17.69 FD
The Value Backs…

Mike Davis ($5,100 DK / $6,000 FD)
Joshua Kelley ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD)
Jerick McKinnon ($4,900 DK / $5,700 FD)
Devin Singletary ($4,900 / $5,900 FD) – UPDATE: I’m likely locking in Singletary on DraftKings cash games.
Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4,000 DK / $5,200 FD)

Honestly, just pick whichever one you prefer because you’re likely to need one for salary relief. If your build doesn’t require that, you’re in good shape.

– Mike Davis – love the PPR floor here and not much competition behind him.
– Joshua Kelley – more viable on FanDuel, but certainly a smash spot against Carolina’s poor excuse of a run defense (dead last in DVOA and bleeding touchdowns to opposing backs.
– Jeff Wilson Jr. / Jerick McKinnon – I’m not buying into McKinnon getting a large workload. Wilson is going to be the lead runner here while McKinnon plays a stronger role in the passing game. If you think the Giants can push the pace, McKinnon is your guy. If you think the Giants lay an egg, go with Wilson.
– Devin Singletary – Meh. There’s no one else there, I guess. Solid for PPR.

Honorable Mention: James Conner, Austin Ekeler, David Montgomery

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD) – The dude’s target share is through the roof and there’s no Christian Kirk this week. Detroit’s pass defense is very bad, but they are likely to bring some bracket coverage towards Hopkins. I don’t think it matters, he’s the WR1 on this slate.
AETY Projection: 21.14 DK / 17.42 FD
Chris Godwin ($6,700 DK / $7,900 FD) – For the same reason we loved JuJu Smith-Schuster against the rookie cornerback in Denver is why we love Godwin this week. Denver’s run defense is actually quite solid and Tampa Bay knows that. They’ll get their points through the air and a lot of that via Chris Godwin. He’s 100% healthy and ready to rock.
AETY Projection: 15.26 DK / 12.21 FD
DK Metcalf ($6,500 DK & FD) / Tyler Lockett ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD) – They are both in absolute smash spots against this awful Dallas secondary in the highest game total on the slate. On FanDuel, I’ll roll with Metcalf. On DraftKings, I’ll roll with Lockett. You’re likely going to need one of these guys in your cash game lineup.
Metcalf AETY Projection: 17.33 DK / 14.69 FD
Lockett AETY Projection: 18.53 DK / 15.21 FD
Julian Edelman ($6,200 DK / $6,500 FD) – Model loves Cam. Model loves Edelman. Coming off of the most receiving yards in a single game (for his career), I’m loving this matchup against inside cornerback, Lamarcus Joyner. If I can pick on Joyner, I’ll always do so. James White being out for this game gives Edelman even more of a slight bump than just a plus-matchup.
AETY Projection: 17.94 DK / 14.49 FD
Allen Robinson ($6,200 DK / $6,900 FD) – Every week we lock in a receiver against Atlanta’s secondary. This week is no different, play Robinson.
AETY Projection: 17.07 DK / 14.02 FD
Diontae Johnson ($5,400 DK / $6,300 FD) – When will they raise his price, lol? The dude is tied for third in the NFL in targets (granted, it’s only been two weeks), but this price is too low against a horrid Houston secondary. This game has sneaky shootout potential and Johnson should smash value.
AETY Projection: 14.41 DK / 11.73 FD
CeeDee Lamb ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD) – Getting cheap exposure to the Seahawks/Cowboys game is a must for me. Lamb is getting a high target share and should have a strong outing in a shootout against Ugo Amadi (who actually looked decent against the Patriots) and the rest of this Seahawks’ secondary.
AETY Projection: 11.73 DK / 9.68 FD

Honorable Mention: N’Keal Harry, Calvin Ridley, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Odell Beckham Jr., Keenan Allen, Adam Humphries

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith ($5,200 DK / $5,600 FD) – I hate rostering Smith in cash games, but it’s slim pickens at the tight-end position this week. Smith is by far their biggest threat in the red-zone with A.J. Brown out yet again.
AETY Projection: 11.01 DK / 9.30 FD
Evan Engram ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD) – Not going to lie, the AETY Model loves Evan Engram this weekend against a 200% depleted San Francisco defense and no Sterling Shepard. Just use him in NFL DFS Cash Games.
AETY Projection: 12.16 DK / 9.77 FD
Hunter Henry ($4,800 DK / $6,000 FD) – Herbert absolutely loved targeting Hunter Henry last weekend against Kansas City and I’ll be more than happy to invest in that chemistry again. I’m usually not a 100% believer in rookie QBs loving their tight-ends as a safety blanket, but Herbert refused to throw the the ball outside and that’s likely not going to change this weekend.

You all know how much Mike Williams I had last weekend 🙁
AETY Projection: 11.76 DK / 9.41 FD
The Punt Plays…

Logan Thomas ($3,700 DK / $4,900 FD)
Drew Sample ($3,500 DK / $4,800 FD)

I rank Thomas much higher due to the proven target share, but if you choose to go dumpster diving at tight-end on Sunday, Sample is probably as low as I’ll go. Let’s try to just stick with Thomas if we go that low in NFL DFS Cash Games.

Honorable Mention: Zach Ertz, Hayden Hurst, Jack Doyle

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Indianapolis Colts ($4,100 DK / $4,800 FD)
Cleveland Browns ($3,800 DK / $3,900 FD)
Los Angeles Chargers ($3,600 DK) *too expensive on FD
Los Angeles Rams ($3,000 DK / $4,100 FD)
Chicago Bears ($2,900 DK / $4,200 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup (DK)

QB: Cam Newton
RB: Miles Sanders
RB: Kenyan Drake
WR: Allen Robinson
WR: Tyler Lockett
WR: Chris Godwin
TE: Logan Thomas
FLEX: Josh Kelley
DST: Bears

Good luck to all!

5 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 2

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time to rock and roll. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

NFL DFS GPP FADES:
Jonathan Taylor
Jordan Reed (unless you have to use him for your core build)
Russell Gage
Ronald Jones
Corey Davis

General GPP Notes:
Ownership seems rather spread out this week. Everyone is going to stack DAL/ATL and for good reason. All of the players in the cash game article are in play for GPPs as well. Here are some ways that I’ll be getting different. Hard to not go 100% on Derrick Henry.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) – It’s Patrick Freakin’ Mahomes, folks. How is his ownership projected under 10%? I will have a ton of Mahomes and Chiefs’ stacks for the late afternoon hammer. We won’t have a sub 10% owned Mahomes again this season. Bring it back with some Chargers on the other side.

Potential Stack Partners: Kelce, Hill, Watkins, Robinson, CEH
Game Stack Partners: Mike Williams, Ekeler
Lamar Jackson ($8,200 DK / $9,500 FD) – Similar situation to Mahomes. He’s expensive as hell, but likely the highest scoring QB by a wide margin.

Potential Stack Partners: Andrews, Brown
Game Stack Partners: Fuller, David Johnson
Aaron Rodgers ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – I would have bet big money Rodgers was crazy chalk this week but it doesn’t appear so. I’m not as high on him as I was last week, but I’m still high on him. He’s going to ball out.

Potential Stack Partners: Adams, MVS, Aaron Jones, Lazard
Game Stack Partners: Amendola, Marvin Jones, Hockenson
UPDATE: All in on Jones.
Dak Prescott ($6,800 DK / $8,300 FD) – It’s chalky, but it’s hard not to love Dak Prescott and literally everyone in this game for NFL DFS GPP lineups. Stack it up and stack it often.

Potential Stack Partners: Cooper, Lamb, Gallup, Schultz, Elliott
Game Stack Partners: Jones, Ridley, Hurst, Gurley
Mitch Trubisky ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – DraftKings just refuses to raise his price I guess. I’ll go right back to the well with Trubisky at home against a terrible Giants’ defense.

Potential Stack Partners: Robinson, Miller, Montgomery, Cohen
Game Stack Partners: Barkley, Slayton, Engram
UPDATE: Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,700 DK / $7,100 FD) – I woke up today and wanted to review some of the Bills/Jets game film from last week to see if Jimmy Garoppolo warrants a play. I’ve come to the conclusion he does and will have a field day against this Jets’ secondary. Their run defense is stout, but they will get torched via the pass.

Using Garoppolo does the world for the rest of your roster. No one will play him, so it’s an angle I’m going to take and pray for the rest of my lineup to carry me.

Potential Stack Partners: Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne, Jordan Reed, Jerick McKinnon, Trent Taylor
Game Stack Partners: Probably no one, but Perriman or Herndon are fine.

Honorable Mention: Matt Ryan, Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Phil Rivers

Running Backs

Aaron Jones ($7,100 DK / $7,700 FD) – The AETY Model is absolutely in love with Aaron Jones this week and I’m going to have a lot of him. The Packers’ offensive line is banged up after losing Lane Taylor for the year… which is scary, but Jones can get it done through the air as well. As everyone flocks to Rodgers/Adams, I’m all about taking the under-the-radar Aaron Jones.
Derrick Henry ($7,900 / $8,300 FD) – If he’s 50% owned, it’s likely too low. Ride him.
Saquon Barkley ($8,400 DK / $9,000 FD) – Barkley is under 10% owned. Do I need to say more? I’m going to have a lot of Saquon Barkley. You can run all over Chicago and Saquon is also likely to receive 5+ targets. He is their offense.
David Montgomery ($5,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – Read the cash game article for takes on Montgomery.
Austin Ekeler ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD) – Read the cash game article for takes on Ekeler. Long story short, I want to stack the Chiefs, so I want some Chargers on the back-side.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Nyheim Hines, Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Miles Sanders, Antonio Gibson

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Allen Robinson ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – Squeaky wheel gets the grease. I think that’s the saying? I mentioned earlier how I like Trubisky and the Bears’ offense, so why wouldn’t we jam in their top receiver who is an absolute target hog.
Mike Evans ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD) – No Godwin. No defense… well, Carolina will suit up 11 guys on defense, but they won’t be playing much of it. Tampa should be able to run the hell out of the ball on Sunday, but Brady and Evans can break the slate with a couple of deep balls. I’m all aboard the Evans train.
Calvin Ridley/Julio Jones – Don’t care about their price, we need exposure to this Dallas/Atlanta game. Get a Cowboy and a Falcon in most of your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
DJ Moore ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) – On the other side of Mike Evans and the Bucs, I’m going back to DJ Moore. He crushed my upside in what was a helluva Week 1 for me. I’ll forgive him and load him up in a game the Panthers are going to be chasing points in from the get go.
Mike Williams ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) – Mr. Air Yards, Mike Williams. I want a lot of Mike Williams this week as the Chargers are going to be playing from behind early in this one. Tyrod will not hesitate to chuck the ball up to Mike Williams and they’re going to connect a few times on Sunday afternoon. Let’s roll.
Marquise Brown ($6,200 DK / $6,200 FD) – Hollywood Brown is always a smash play for GPPs. He’s 100% healthy this year and proved last week he’s just an absolute matchup nightmare.
DJ Chark ($6,000 DK / $6,700 FD) – If we’re going to have this much Derrick Henry, we should give a solid look to a Jacksonville play maker. I wrote him up last week and he was kind of a let-down, but I’m going back to both DJ’s this weekend.
JuJu Smith Schuster ($6,500 DK / $7,100 FD) – JuJu is going up against a rookie slot-cornerback. This is a smash matchup for a top-tier wide receiver with sub 5% ownership. I think he’s one of my favorites this week.

Honorable Mention: Adam Thielen, Cooper Kupp, Hollywood Brown, Will Fuller, Preston Williams, TY Hilton, Parris Campbell

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD) – By far the best tight end on the slate and I want a lot of KC/LAC exposure this week.
Mark Andrews ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) – He’s a red-zone freak and likely to lead the NFL in tight end touchdowns. Houston is going to have a tough time slowing down this Baltimore offense as a whole, but I love Andrews almost as much as I do Kelce.
Zach Ertz ($5,600 DK / $6,300 FD) – I’ll always play a sub-10% owned, Zach Ertz. Goedert went off last week, but that doesn’t warrant the field ignoring Zach Ertz.
Hayden Hurst ($4,600 DK / $5,700 FD) – Hurst chalk let a lot of people down last week… unless you’re a member at Win Daily. Now is the week to lock in Hurst and get some cheap exposure to this likely shoot-out. Dallas’ linebacking core is beat up and the rest of this team is going to have their hands full with Julio and Ridley. Hurst szn.

Honorable Mention: TJ Hockenson, Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, O.J. Howard

Good luck to all!

5 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Hopefully everyone enjoyed a huge week of cashing in Week 1! It’s officially NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 2, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

The player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at every position which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Jonathan Taylor chalk week – Play him in cash games.
A lot of value everywhere at the WR position. Adams is easily the top WR play for cash, but there are a lot of values down low.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($8,100 DK / $9,500 FD) – You don’t need me to tell you Lamar Jackson is in play. He’s the top QB option on this slate and a perfect start to your cash game build.
AETY Projection: 25.75 points
Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) – Same situation as Lamar Jackson. We don’t need to talk about why Mahomes is always in play for cash games.
AETY Projection: 21.13 points
Aaron Rodgers ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – I said it all summer long. Rodgers is going to be a man possessed this season and started off with a bang in Week 1. I don’t love him as much as I did in Week 1, but this Lions’ secondary is in rough shape. Rodgers will carve them up and hit value with ease.
AETY Projection: 20.55 points
Dak Prescott ($6,800 DK / $8,300 FD) – Hard to not want to lock in Dak Prescott after what Russell Wilson and the Seahawks did to this secondary last week. This is the nuts matchup for an opposing QB and a solid price to use Dak in cash.
AETY Projection: 20.90 points
Kyler Murray ($6,100 DK / $8,000 FD) – Criminally priced on DraftKings. He’s likely my favorite QB for cash games and offers a high-floor based on his rushing ability alone. This Washington secondary is going to have a hard time in coverage against this passing scheme of Cliff Kingsbury. If you can’t afford Hopkins, just get your exposure to him through Murray.
AETY Projection: 21.93 points
Philip Rivers ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD) – You’re going to notice that I’ll always be picking on this Minnesota secondary throughout the 2020 NFL season. I wish Rivers was priced down a bit more, but this matchup is enough to warrant the play in a NFL DFS Cash Game as well as GPPs.
AETY Projection: 17.86 points

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Mitch Trubisky

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott ($8,200 DK / $8,600 FD) – Great price, great matchup, great high-total gamescript. If you’re not using Dak Prescott in cash, use Elliott. The offensive line is certainly not what it used to be, but Elliott’s usage and skillset are enough to make the play.
AETY Projection: 23.05 DK /21.46 FD
Derrick Henry ($7,900 DK / $8,300 FD) – 50% of the field is going to use Henry (if not more) in cash games this weekend. It’s a smash spot against a horrendous Jacksonville defense that Marlon Mack was slashing early last week prior to the injury. Henry is a no-brainer this week for cash games, especially at that ownership.
AETY Projection: 22.76 DK / 21.83 FD
Austin Ekeler ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD) – It bit more risky than I’d like after only receiving one target in Week 1, but I’m going to go back to the well with Ekeler this week in what should be a plus gamescript for a pass-catching back like Ekeler. I have to think the Chargers staff watched the film and are ready to get Ekeler back in a position where he can succeed.

The season is young, but KC is currently ranked 31st in run defense DVOA. Take that with a grain of salt, but this is likely a team we will target with opposing running backs all season long.
AETY Projection: 15.35 DK / 14.09 FD
Jonathan Taylor ($5,700 DK / $5,800 FD) – Just lock him in for your cash games. It’s that easy, he’s the “freesquare” player this week that everyone will be on.
AETY Projection: 17.20 DK / 15.68 FD
David Montgomery ($5,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – Way too cheap on FanDuel and a solid value on DraftKings. Montgomery is more of a GPP play this week, but the 13 carries and 3 targets in the passing game last week has me thinking Montgomery is 100% healthy.

He was very effective on the ground last week and should be a main focus of the Bears’ offense as they’re a relatively sizable home-favorite against a New York Giants’ defense that allowed Benny Snell to eclipse 100 rush yards. He’s in play for NFL DFS Cash Game lineups in Week 2.
AETY Projection: 14.25 DK / 13.26 FD

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley, Cylde Edwards-Helaire, Aaron Jones, Raheem Mostert, Zack Moss

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,100 DK / $8,600 FD) – We don’t need to write much about Davante Adams. The Lions’ secondary (who just lost Desmond Trufant/Justin Coleman but gains rookie, Jeff Okudah) is simply not good. I do think Patricia will have a solid scheme to slow-down Adams with bracket coverage, but that won’t be enough to stop Adams from hitting value for us in cash games.
AETY Projection: 21.53 DK / 17.45 FD
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700 DK / $8,300 FD) – I’m still not a believer that the target share Hopkins just received is sustainable, but my lord, what a debut from Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. The price is solid and a likely matchup against Ronald Darby is always intriguing.
AETY Projection: 18.66 DK / 15.22 FD
Adam Thielen ($7,200 DK / $7,300 FD) – Not really a fan of Thielen, but with how much I like the Colts’ offense this week, it makes a ton of sense to run it back on the other side with Adam Thielen. The Colts’ secondary looked sub-par last week in the loss to Jacksonville and should have a tough time containing Thielen if Minnesota has to push the pace a bit and pass often like last week. The targets will be there.
AETY Projection: 16.84 DK / 13.86 FD
Calvin Ridley ($6,800 DK / $7,100 FD) – What a season opener for Calvin Ridley! Hopefully you all had plenty of shares last week on what was easily the best game to stack up. Atlanta’s defense is brutal and will be chasing points all season long. We always want exposure to talented receivers in a team that is likely to throw the ball 45+ times a game.
AETY Projection: 15.25 DK / 12.20 FD
Amari Cooper ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – 14 targets in Week 1… Wowza. I’ve always been an Amari Cooper truther due to the top-tier route running ability and am expecting a big year in 2020. We touched on how awful Atlanta’s secondary is, so honestly, every Cowboy receiver is in-play, so just pick which one fits your build. Good luck, Isaiah Oliver and company.
AETY Projection: 16.41 DK / 13.44 FD
Danny Amendola ($4,800 DK / $5,200 FD) – Only in play for DraftKings, but if the Lions are chasing points all day long (they will be), Amendola can find his way into a 10-target game on the inside of this Packers’ pass defense.

UPDATE: Not worth the risk. Just go down to Scotty Miller ($4,100 DK / $5,200 FD)
Diontae Johnson ($4,500 DK / $5,800 FD) – The price is too low for a talented wide receiver in an expected explosive offense who just received 10 targets. I know everyone is going to go down to Corey Davis who’s also a freesquare type of player, but Diontae has way more upside. He’s one of four receivers on the AETY Model who projected for over 3x value.
AETY Projection: 13.65 DK / 11.04 FD
Parris Campbell ($4,500 DK / $5,300 FD) – Cheap exposure to a wide receiver who will see > 80% of the snaps against this Minnesota secondary. Keep it simple. I know everyone says don’t stack in cash games, but if you have a NFL DFS cash game lineup with Taylor/Campbell, I think you’ll be okay this week.
AETY Projection: 12.65 DK / 10.43 FD

Honorable Mention: Allen Robinson, Julio Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster, DJ Chark, Mike Evans, Corey Davis, Mike Williams

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD) – It’s Travis Kelce. He’s the only Tier 1 Tight-End in the game (in my opinion). He’s always in play no matter what format.
AETY Projection: 16.18 DK / 13.43 FD
Jordan Reed ($2,600 DK / $4,800 FD) – Kittle is out and that opens up the world of value for Jordan Reed for the 49ers. They didn’t bring him in to be a pass blocker. He’s going to run routes and the price is too good to pass up.
AETY Projection: 8.04 DK / 6.72 FD

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst, Chris Herndon

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s the defenses in my player pool this weekend:

San Francisco 49ers
Buffalo Bills
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tennessee Titans
Green Bay Packers
Arizona Cardinals
Tampa Bay Bucs
Indianapolis Colts

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Derrick Henry
RB: Jonathan Taylor
WR: Amari Cooper
WR: Calvin Ridley
WR: Diontae Johnson
TE: Jordan Reed
FLEX: Austin Ekeler
DST: Tampa Bay Bucs

Good luck to all!

5 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Football is finally here! It feels like we’ve been without the best game in the world for years but the wait is over; it’s NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 1, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

The player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at every position which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
UPDATE: Marvin Jones is a cash lock for me now with Golladay out.
Antonio Gibson Chalk Week: It’s interesting the field is so heavy on a rookie without a truly defined role.
UPDATE: I’m eating the Gibson chalk for cash games.

Moving to Boston Scott. Lock him in.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($8,100 DK / $9,400 FD) – You don’t need me to tell you Lamar Jackson is in play. He’s the top QB option on this slate and a perfect start to your cash game build. I’m not going to pay for his price-tag on either sites for cash games, but he has much more value on DK this week if you choose to roster him.
AETY Projection: 24.19 points
Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) – Wilson is likely going to be the most popular QB on the Sunday main slate… and for good reason. This Atlanta pass defense is likely to struggle against Seattle’s offensive weapons. Russell Wilson is about as safe as they come this week for cash builds as he goes under center for a team with an implied total of 25.5 points.
AETY Projection: 21.86 points
Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,800 DK / $7,400 FD) – I have no idea why the DFS community isn’t all aboard the Jimmy G train this week. This dude had career games both times he met up with Vance Joseph’s defensive scheme last season (over 31 DK points both starts). He’s incredibly cheap and grades out as the #1 value on the Win Daily Sports AETY Model (Adjusted Expected Total Yards). Love him in cash, love him in GPPs.
~~AETY Projection: 18.82 points~~

Update: Not as high on him now with the receiving options limited and air-quality issues that threaten this game being able to be played. I love the pivot up to Aaron Rodgers ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) if I can find a way to afford it.
Mitch Trubisky ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) – Disgusting, I know. If you want to get weird and go to the bottom of the barrel for salary relief, I’m telling you Trubisky is 100% in play. He’s much more likely to be on my GPP lineups as opposed to cash, but if you’d rather pay up for stud RBs/WRs (try to make it work with Jimmy G), you can do worse that Trubisky.

He has excellent numbers against Patricia’s man coverage, but he’s the only QB in this article who doesn’t have a proven history of protecting the football. It’s risky, but it’s in play for NFL DFS cash games this week.
AETY Projection: 17.44 points

Honorable Mention: Drew Brees ($6,800 DK / $8,100 FD) | Josh Allen ($6,500 DK / $7,900 FD) | Cam Newton ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD)

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($10,000 DK/FD) – It’s Christian McCaffrey. He’s always in play until further notice. I don’t think you have to use him in Week 1, but it’s hard not to lock him in.
AETY Projection: 26.71 DK / 23.69 FD
Dalvin Cook ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD) – Cook is likely to be overlooked by the NFL DFS world in Week 1, so I prefer him in GPPs, but he’s certainly in play for cash games. Green Bay did improve their defense in the off-season, but this squad ranked 27th in Run Defense DVOA in 2019… That doesn’t bode well for the Packers against a Gary Kubiak outside-zone, run scheme.
AETY Projection: 20.19 DK / 18.46 FD
Josh Jacobs ($6,800 DK / $8,200 FD) – My golden boy for 2020, Josh Jacobs. Lock him in for all formats this week against Carolina and their dead last ranking in run defense DVOA. I have Jacobs projected for over 90 yards rushing, which is by far the highest amount on this slate. Play him and don’t look back.
AETY Projection: 20.80 DK / 19.42 FD
Joe Mixon ($6,700 DK / $7,300 FD) – Joe Mixon is way too cheap for the expected workload he’s about to receive this season. Despite having a terrible offensive line and passing attack in Cincinnati last season, Mixon balled out and regularly saw 20+ touches per game.

The Chargers’ defense rated 25th in run defense DVOA last season which is always nice to target, but Mixon’s workload will keep him in play against anyone despite their defense. I don’t love him this week, but he’s going to get a lot of touches.
AETY Projection: 16.90 DK / 15.74 FD
Chris Carson ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD) – No idea why people aren’t on Chris Carson this season (mainly speaking for season-long, but the DFS community apparently wants no part of him either). Seattle is a run first offense that averaged over 130 yards per game on the ground last season… Atlanta gave up over 120 yards on the ground per game last season. They’re defense looks a bit better on paper (more-so the secondary), but at this price, Carson has my interest.
AETY Projection: 17.19 DK / 15.92 FD
Antonio Gibson ($4,000 DK / $4,600 FD) – Enter Antonio Gibson chalk week. I don’t quite understand why the field is so high on Gibson in his first game out against arguably the best run defense in the NFL (outside of the value in his price). Usually, I’d say just lock him in because the ownership warrants it for cash games, but I’m 100% okay if you choose to fade him here.

I don’t see simple path to success unless they use him as an inside receiver against these Philadelphia linebackers. Sometimes, you just need to play it safe and eat the chalk. I’m not thrilled about it, but he’s likely to be in my main cash lineup.
AETY Projection: 11.24 DK / 9.95 FD

Update: Boston Scott now a great play for cash games

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD) | Todd Gurley ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) | FD Only: Marlon Mack ($6,100 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

Michael Thomas ($9,000 DK / $8,800 FD) – Like McCaffrey, I don’t need to elaborate on Michael Thomas. Top receiver on the slate and likely the highest in ownership.
AETY Projection: 21.35 DK / 17.53 FD
Davante Adams ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD) – Remember DeAndre Hopkins’ production in Houston? Hopefully you didn’t overpay for Hopkins this season as he moves to Arizona, but that’s a conversation for another day.

Back to Hopkins production in Houston… Targets, targets, and more targets. This dude had over 31% of the target share each of the last three seasons! That won’t happen in Arizona and may not happen in the NFL again this season. If it does, that man is going to be Davante Adams in Green Bay.

Adams is the only game in town (for now) and is likely to receive 10+ targets on a weekly basis. The skillset is there, the quarterback is there, and most of all, the volume is going to be there. Adams is a perfect target for your cash game lineup against this Minnesota secondary (who were great last year, but likely awful in 2020 due to significant personnel changes). It’s a fine salary saving pivot off of Michael Thomas… one that I prefer.
AETY Projection: 18.34 DK / 14.78 FD
DJ Moore ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – I’m not a DJ Moore truther like most, but if you don’t use McCaffrey, I’m cool with you rocking DJ Moore against a likely improved, but still underwhelming secondary for Las Vegas. This game has sneaky shoot-out potential and Moore would be a recipient of a lot of targets in that scenario.
AETY Projection: 14.21 DK / 11.37 FD
Kenny Golladay ($6,200 DK / $7,300 FD) – Criminally priced on DK. Golladay projects as the second best receiver on the slate for me in terms of overall production. I do get worried about Marvin Jones stealing red-zone targets, but Golladay is going to be busy on Sunday. It’s hard to pass up on the value here.
AETY Projection: 17.14 DK / 14.36 FD

Update: Marvin Jones now likely a MUST-PLAY in cash games with Golladay ruled out.
Allen Robinson ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – On the other side of this Lions’ game is an absolute target monster who tears up man coverage. Allen Robinson projects as the third best receiver on this slate and I’ll have a lot of exposure to him this week. I like this game as another sneaky shoot-out and a big performance by Robinson.
AETY Projection: 16.61 DK / 13.68 FD
DK Metcalf ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – Lock in Metcalf this week for cash games. His price is too low in a plus-matchup against a young/bad Atlanta secondary. Metcalf is going to be extremely popular this weekend (in a game with a total approaching 50 points) and that makes him hard to fade in NFL DFS cash games… especially with a ceiling as high as his.
AETY Projection: 14.71 DK / 12.42 FD
Marquise Brown ($5,100 DK / $5,900 FD) – Similar to Metcalf, the upside with Marquise Brown is almost second-to-none. At this price tag, he’s extremely valuable and is going to be popular. I prefer using Brown in GPP formats when he’s lower owned due to the lack in volume (Baltimore is the most run-heavy offense in the NFL… and they’re great at it), but he’s in play this week for cash games at the high ownership.

Personally, I’ll do whatever I can to pay up for Metcalf instead of Brown, but you can certainly use Brown or both of them if your lineup build demands that you do so.
AETY Projection: 12.78 DK / 10.45 FD
Preston Williams ($4,500 DK / $5,300 FD) – I can’t just write about players everyone likes… so we’ll be the only website on the planet that touts Preston Williams for Week 1 NFL DFS cash games. DeVante Parker is likely to be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore and that’s going to open up a lot for Preston Williams on the other side.

He is coming off of a knee injury so proceed with caution on Williams, but he has Metcalf-like upside and will be un-rostered by the public. He is cash viable this week at this price point (pending his health… keep an eye on that).
~~AETY Projection: 12.18 DK / 9.97 FD~~

Update: No need to get this cute. Marvin Jones value opened up the world for us.

Honorable Mention: Chris Godwin ($7,100 DK / $7,700 FD) | Keenan Allen ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) | DJ Chark ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD) | Tyler Boyd ($6,100 DK/FD)| Anthony Miller ($5,000 DK / $5,400 FD)

Tight Ends

George Kittle ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – There is a zero percent chance I roster Kittle in cash games, but he has the highest ceiling out of all of the tight ends on this slate. Last year, we always played the tight-end against Arizona. Kittle faces Arizona… if you can afford him, rock him.
AETY Projection: 14.84 DK / 12.38 FD
Zach Ertz ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – Ertz is the only receiving threat on this offense right now with a banged-up Miles Sanders and depleted wide receiving core. Don’t get cute, Ertz is a smash, cash game play at this price.
AETY Projection: 14.20 DK / 11.58 FD
Hayden Hurst ($4,300 DK / $5,200 FD) – Hard to ignore Hurst at this price-tag now that he has joined the Atlanta Falcons (one of the best tight-end production systems in the NFL). I’ll leave it at that.

Update: I am not as high on him after diving into the matchup against Seattle’s new secondary (mainly Jamaal Adams). He’ll be a fade for me in GPPs.
AETY Projection: 11.20 DK / 9.34 FD

Honorable Mention: DK Only: Dallas Goedert ($4,100 DK) | Jack Doyle ($3,600 DK)

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Buffalo Bills ($3,700 DK / $4,700 FD)
New England Patriots ($3,200 DK / $4,600 FD)
Baltimore Ravens ($3,100 DK / $4,800 FD)
Indianapolis Colts ($3,000 DK / $3,700 FD)
Washington Football Team ($2,000 DK / $3,400 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup (DK)

QB: Cam Newton
RB: Josh Jacobs
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Marvin Jones
WR: DK Metcalf
TE: Jack Doyle
FLEX: Antonio Gibson
DST: Colts

Good luck to all!

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