NFL DFS Picks

All we can hope for this week is we get another stack like we had with Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. This slate has already changed as the Steelers game was moved to Monday, so we have 11 games in front of us. It’s not the prettiest slate we’ve ever seen but there’s a ton to talk about so let’s get to NFL Game By Game Breakdown Week 13!

Browns at Titans, O/U of 53.5 (Titans -5.5)

Browns – Pace is 26th

QB – I’ve been pretty loathe to play Baker Mayfield basically all season but at this price…I might have to consider it. He’s Kirk Cousins East in that his team is very run heavy. Only four teams attempt more rushes per game so Baker has to be efficient in his opportunities. I also don’t want to judge the three game stretch of Vegas, Houston and Philly too harshly. Those three weeks were where offenses went to die in the Cleveland weather.

At $5,300 we do not need a whole lot. Just last week’s performance of 258 yards and two touchdowns would work out fine. Tennessee has given up the second-most touchdown passes on the season and have no real pass rush to speak of. Mayfield is actually at a 0.43 pDB which is 19th in the league but that’s not horrible when you have to throw out almost a quarter of his schedule. Tennessee is in the bottom eight of both DVOA against the pass and are allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game. For about the first time all season, I like Mayfield this week.

RB – Seeing the results of Nick Chubb I felt like maybe I got a little too cute in fading him. However, he did almost exactly what I thought he would need to hit about 4x. He rushed for 144 yards, scored and actually got targeted in the passing game three times. That second part is huge because Chubb only has seven total targets this season. Lastly, it was the first time since coming back from injury that he out-snapped Kareem Hunt.

If Chubb consistently gets 2-3 targets and racks up 20+ touches, he should be over $8,000. That’s especially true in this matchup, but I’m still a little leery about that receiving floor. Chubb did see the RZ attempts shift to him with a 4-1 split this past week, another encouraging sign. Since Cleveland runs so much, Hunt can have 10-12 touches and Chubb can still be the man. The Titans are a little better against the run, ranking 18th in DVOA and 16th in rush yards per game. I still favor the run game for the Browns in this spot.

WR – With the passing game being secondary in Cleveland, Jarvis Landry is likely the only player from the corps I’d use. No other receiver was targeted more than three times. I know we’ve been harping on this point, but the target share for Landry has been massive since Odell Beckham was lost for the year. He’s at 32.6% and has a matching 32.6% of the air yards share as well. Only Davante Adams has a target share over 30% on the season, so this four game sample is really something that needs to be paid attention to. When Landry is in the slot, he’ll be facing Desmond King. It’s tougher to evaluate King with two teams this year but overall he’s given up a 1.60 pPT and a 66% catch rate.

A very sneaky play (so sneaky maybe it came from a DFS Ghost…) could turn out to be Rashard Higgins. The opportunity as far as targets is questionable. However, speed receivers against the Titans tend to do well. Their corners in Malcolm Butler and Breon Borders both run in the 4.5 40-yard dash range. Higgins got measured at 4.6 but that honestly seems off. Perhaps he’s a touch faster than an older measurement. Regardless, the aDOT for Higgins has been 14.8. It’s only going to take one double move.

TE – I feel a little lucky that Austin Hooper cashed in a touchdown last week because he didn’t do a whole lot else. He also was only targeted twice and the score helped save him a bit. Much like last week against Jacksonville, Hooper does draw another spectacular matchup. Tennessee has given up the seventh-most DK points per game, seven touchdowns and the ninth-most yards. Of the touchdown or bust options at the position, Hooper does check all the boxes we like. I just wish he was seeing the targets he was before the injury. This does have shootout potential, which increases his odds slightly.

D/ST – Nope. Tennessee only has five turnovers on the season, three fewer than the next team for the lead. Myles Garrett should be back this week, but Denzel Ward will likely not and Tennessee has only allowed 15 sacks on the year. The chances for splash plays aren’t great here.

Cash – Mayfield, Chubb, Landry

GPP – Hooper, Hunt, Higgins

Titans – Pace is 9th

QB – Ryan Tannehill has really seen his passing attempts go down lately, having not exceeded 31 attempts since Week 6. We talk all the time about this is the time of the season for Derrick Henry and that’s been the case lately. The Titans are only 27th in pass plays per game and that’s a reason to fear the floor for Tannehill. He’s playing good football ranking fifth in pDB at 0.56 and sitting sixth in touchdowns. Even with the Browns boasting Garrett, they are still in the bottom three in pressure rate in the league. When Tannehill is kept clean, he’s sixth in completion rate at 79.2%. This really comes down if he can be efficient in his scoring. If Tannehill can generate two total touchdowns or more, he should be golden at the price. If not, he’ll likely flop. Cleveland is mid-pack in DVOA against the pass and 20th in yards given up while having a 22-9 TD:INT ratio. With both quarterbacks having similar issues in lack of attempts, I might rather just play Mayfield in this game.

RB – I’ll admit that the DK pricing for Henry is a little scary, even with the immense ceiling he has. This is his time of the year and he destroyed the slate last week. We all know what he’s capable of but we need to do some math on the salary here. To hit 3x or higher, he needs to be at about 28 DK points. Since it’s not wise to mark him down for more than two receptions, he would need Henry needs 100 yards for the bonus and some mix of two touchdowns or about 60 more yards. It’s a lot when there’s not receptions to fall back on. At this price, I don’t think you consider Henry in cash. It’s one thing when he’s under $8,000. It’s a whole other ball game at this salary. Cleveland is ninth in yards allowed per game and 15th in DVOA. I don’t fear a defense against Henry but be aware of what format suits him best.

WR – Even as the alpha receiver in the passing game, A.J. Brown’s price is getting up there. It likely should be since he’s tied for fourth in touchdowns but he’s also 28th in yards and outside the top 40 in receptions. That comes with the package when you’re in an offense that is only 27th in pass plays per game. (Please give this man a pass heavy offense and a good quarterback once in his career). With the news already that corner Denzel Ward not likely to play, good luck stopping Brown this week. I’m actually good to play him in cash even at the salary with no Ward.

I’m still as interested as ever in Core Davis at this price and Cleveland is in the bottom 12 in yards to receivers and tied for the fifth most touchdowns allowed to the position. Davis is holding steady at a 22.9% target share and leads the team in air yards share at 33%. He also leads the team in receptions. Really he one factor he does fall a little short on is the RZ and EZ work. Davis sits third in both categories but at his price he doesn’t need to score to hit value. He could get here by going over 100 yards and has the chance to do it in this game.

TE – We’ve talked about the lack of routes for Jonnu Smith for a couple weeks and he came back to bite him last week. He played 75% of the snaps but was not targeted once against the Colts. That’s pretty terrifying for a tight end that is over $4,000 and is the TE7 in salary. It’s a phenomenal matchup as the Browns are bottom four in DK points allowed. They are also eighth in yards allowed, third in receptions allowed and tied for second in touchdowns allowed. I believe Smith could be part of a Tannehill double stack as leverage off Henry but that’s as far as I would go here.

*Update* Jonnu is out so Anthony Firkser steps up as a minimum-priced punt. I’m fine with him in whatever format to make everything else work, especially with the issues Cleveland has had with tight ends.

D/ST – I just can’t get there with this unit. They do have 16 turnovers forced, but only 14 sacks is tough to swallow. Baker can be a little careless with the football but they are too expensive for what they bring to the table.

Cash – Brown, Davis, Firkser

GPP – Henry (big time GPP play again this week), Tannehill

Colts at Texans, O/U of 50.5 (Colts -3.5)

Colts – Pace is 17th

QB – Taking out the Baltimore game (which is understandable), Philip Rivers has been a lot better for fantasy over the past six weeks. Maybe he’s just getting more comfortable with his new offense, or maybe it’s just tied to his attempts. The lowest number he’s had in this stretch is 33 and he’s averaged two touchdowns per game over the past six. Rivers has been quite good under pressure with a 48% completion rate under pressure. The matchup at hand is enticing as Houston sits 25th in DVOA and 23rd in yards allowed per game. It’s not going to help that their best corner Bradley Roby is now suspended for the season as well. The Texans only have three interceptions to 20 touchdowns on the year, so Rivers is on the board as an option this week.

RB – I was sort of hoping that Jonathan Taylor was inactive again this week (nothing against him and I wish no ill upon him) just to have clarity here. Now that Taylor is in, I’m interested in GPP in a major way. I will make sure to highlight GPP ONLY because Coach Frank Reich is evil with his running back rotation. However, Taylor really showed out against Green Bay. He played 56% of the snaps and recorded 26 touches, racking up 114 scrimmage yards. Taylor also had a long touchdown called back. If he gets 20+ touches, he’s going to wreck this Texans defense. They rank 27th in DVOA against the run and have surrendered over 2,000 scrimmage yards to running backs.

Nyheim Hines isn’t totally out of play, but his role could get thinner with Taylor back. Hines is second on the team in the past four weeks with 23 targets which is roughly the time Michael Pittman came into a larger role. It could absolutely be either of these players on any given Sunday. I prefer Taylor and if he’s not getting any attention, all the better in my eyes.

*Update* Tackle Anthony Castonzo is out which doesn’t exactly help the offense. I’m standing firm in liking the players we’ve talked about though.

WR – Historically, this is a T.Y. Hilton spot. He’s faced them 16 times in his career and has racked up 85 receptions, 1,537 yards and 10 touchdowns. Please don’t confuse this with an apples to apples comparison. Hilton is a different player now. In fairness, he is coming off his best game of the season and only the second time he’s crossed double-digit DK points. He does lead the team in air yards share at 24.9% and target share, but that’s only 15.9%. This is not a smash play that it has been in recent seasons but Hilton is also remarkably cheap.

I wonder how high Michael Pittman will be rostered this week. He saw another nine targets last week and even with a game script that favored him, he’s now seen 27 targets over the past four weeks. He’s played over 80% of the snaps in each game and he’s led with a 17.8% target share. He’s facing a corner we’ve targets a lot this year in Vernon Hargreaves since he’s allowed a 2.10 pPT and a 115.6 passer rating. If Hines comes in chalky, definitely look into a Rivers stack with either or both of these receivers as GPP leverage. With Roby gone, we’re not 100% sure how the individual matchups will shake out. If they put Hargreaves on Hilton, he could really have a day.

TE – This position is still kind of a pain, since three players all play significant snaps. Trey Burton easily did the most damage last week and is my favorite, but he’s playing under 50% of the snaps on the year and only has a route rate of 49.4%. Mo Alie-Cox is playing the most snaps but a 7.2% target share doesn’t do us much good. The Colts continue to use Jack Doyle between 30-50% of the snaps but he has fewer targets than Alie-Cox. Houston has been average against tight ends and with the splits going on, I’m likely to avoid this spot.

D/ST – Houston is in the top 10 in sacks allowed and if Indy gets players back from the Covid list, they could be interesting. The Texans are down multiple key offensive starters and the Colts could recover quickly from a beat down last week. They need DeForest Buckner back at least for this to be a play, but let’s check back closer to the weekend.

*Update* Buckner is active so I do like the defense here

Cash – Rivers, Pittman, D/ST

GPP – Taylor (and I love him), Hilton, Hines

Texans – Pace is 14th

QB – Normally I wouldn’t hesitate to play Deshaun Watson even at $7,500 but I might have some caution here. With the suspension of Will Fuller for the balance of the season, Watson is now without his most dangerous receiver. I’m not sitting here and saying Watson can’t get it done now, seeing as how he’s at a 0.55 pDB which is sixth in the league. He’s top 10 in passing touchdowns, points per game, fifth in yards and first in clean completion rate at 88.6%. The Colts are a challenge on paper, as they are sixth in DVOA against the pass and in yards allowed per game. I just can’t find a reason to pay this price this week without knowing how this offense reacts to no Fuller outside of GPP.

RB – There was some good to take from Duke Johnson’s game on Thanksgiving, as he played over 70% of the snaps again and scored. The three receptions were nice to see, especially since he cashed in a 33-yarder for a touchdown. However, the nine carries for only 37 yards against one of the worst run defenses in football wasn’t the best sign. There’s an argument to be made that Johnson will be a higher focus in the lineup to make some pressure off the passing game, but this matchup is tough. Sure, Derrick Henry smashed the Colts run defense but that’s Henry. Indy is still fifth in DVOA against the un and have allowed the seventh-fewest rush yards per game. I don’t think we need to go here and C.J. Prosise only played 10 snaps last game. We can safely avoid that.

*Update* In a surprise, David Johnson is active this week and Prosise is out. David isn’t super cheap and there’s not a real reason to go after him.

WR – With Fuller out, it’s possible that Brandin Cooks is about o be heavy chalk at his salary. Under this coaching staff, Cooks was leading the team in targets as it was with Fuller leading in air yards at 33.6%. That’s a lot to replace so I would expect Cooks to see 10 targets or more. The individual matchup is not ideal but the salary for target share doesn’t make sense now. The assumption is that Xavier Rhodes will go to Cooks now, as he’s due to be treated as the number one. Rhodes is ninth in the league at a 1.40 pPT, fifth in passer rating at 63.3 and third in catch rate at 47.1%. There is bust potential for Cooks here and I am likely to eat chalk in cash if a need to and have very little to none in GPP.

The secondary receivers have some appeal here. Keke Coutee will have to slide into the number two role by default since Randall Cobb is on the IR. He only has nine targets on the season but Houston doesn’t have much choice since they released Kenny Stills as well. He could bring some attention as well since he’s so cheap and gets Kenny Moore if he stays in the slot. Moore has allowed a 62.7% catch rate. The ultimate wildcard could be Isaiah Coulter. He’s reportedly going to see more time and he does have some speed at a 4.45 40-yard dash time. If he slides to the outside, Rock Ya-Sin would face him and runs a 4.5. We don’t have anything to go on since he’s not played in a game so far this season but with Watson at quarterback, he doesn’t need a whole lot. Houston also runs three wide receivers about 64% of the time.

TE – Jordan Akins was a big miss on Thanksgiving with just two targets but they didn’t really need him. The Colts are one of the toughest teams to the position with just one score allowed and under 420 yards allowed. Houston should be running a lot of two tight end sets as Akins, Darren Fells and Pharaoh Brown are all about 45% of the snaps. Akins would still be the choice since he has the highest target share at 11% on the team. You’re just hoping that he gets more work than he did last week, with the offense missing their best receiver. Beat reporters suggest his role will grow without Fuller and he is cheap.

D/ST – Houston only has eight turnovers forced on the season, though they have gotten to 25 sacks. Rivers has only been sacked 10 times on the season so the main play is to hope he turns it over. That’s always possible but not something I want to pay $2,800 for.

Cash – Cooks, Coutee

GPP – Watson, Coulter, Johnson, Akins

Raiders at Jets, O/U of 46.5 (Raiders -8.5)

Raiders – Pace is 25th

QB – Vegas….what the heck was that? After giving the Chiefs a test, the Raiders went to Atlanta and got the taste slapped out of their mouth and it started with Derek Carr. After giving him his due for playing so well, he was AWFUL this past week with four turnovers, no touchdowns and only 215 yards passing. Other than the Chiefs game, Carr has been no higher than 15 DK points the past four weeks. Two of those games have been under eight DK, which obviously cripples a lineup. He gets about the best possible bounce back spot here against the Jets, as they are dead last in DVOA against the pass and 30th in passing yards allowed. In addition, they are tied for fourth in touchdowns allowed. I don’t have trust in Carr at this point but he’ll likely not be as popular as he should after last week.

RB – We could have an interesting situation here. Josh Jacobs has not practiced yet this week after suffering an ankle injury last week. It’s starting to look like Devontae Booker might be the lead back here and he’s potentially interesting. Backup running backs are hit and miss, but Booker does have some pass catching chops. He’s been targeted 14 times which isn’t horrible for only playing 19.9% of the snaps. The issues are both Jalen Richard and Theo Riddick could be active and they can catch passes too. Booker is also not cheap at $5,500. Compounding the issues are the Jets defense being ranked eighth in DVOA against the run and giving up under 100 yards rushing per game to the backs. This is a spot where I’d play Booker as chalk for cash but play a Taylor in GPP.

*Update* Jacobs is out so Booker stands to be popular. I will say that Richard and Riddick are active and that does give me at least a little bit of pause. Booker is likely to be chalky and there’s nothing wrong with him in cash at all. I’m not sure I’ll be heavy in GPP though.

WR – There’s not really an individual matchup here to scare me, so I might as well go back to the well with Nelson Agholor. He still managed 10.4 DK points in the disaster of the game last week and I still believe he has the highest ceiling. The target share is thin at 13.1% but Henry Ruggs is only at 11.8% and Hunter Renfrow is at 14.8%. There’s nothing to write home about in that respect for anyone but Agholor is second on the team in RZ and EZ targets. That’s what we’re going to be after the most, although I absolutely want some exposure to Ruggs if he’s going to see five targets like he did last week. Agholor faces mostly Blessuan Austin who has allowed a 97.3 passer rating over 46 targets. Ruggs squares up with Bryce Hall for the most part and that is advantage Ruggs in one aspect – speed. Hall couldn’t do Combine work due to injury, but many believe he was in the 4.5 second range on the 40-yard dash. His top end speed was a big concern and Ruggs was sub-4.3. That’s a big difference. The receiver position is not the ideal way to go after the passing game since it’s so spread out but the matchup is too good to pass up not to have some shares along the line.

TE – Based on the metrics we chase, Darren Waller is the player to go after in the passing game. I may have some ill will since he cost me last week on multiple fronts, but the spot is just as good as it was last week. Just like Carr, this is among the best bounce back spot Waller could ask for. He has a 26.7% target share which is easily the highest mark on the team. Waller also leads the team by a lot in RZ targets at a 35.6% share. The Jets are bottom six in DK points allowed to the position and no team has allowed more touchdowns. He’s an elite play after a total dud last week.

D/ST – The Raiders got the “Jets offense” bump in salary at $3,400 and that’s tough to swallow. Vegas only has 12 sacks on the year and 12 turnovers across the 11 games they’ve played. I just don’t like paying a premium for the lack of splash plays here, but get why people might want to.

Cash – Waller, Booker

D/ST – Carr, Agholor, Ruggs, Renfrow

Jets – Pace is 11th

QB – As much as I want to take a shot with a quarterback that is only $5,000, I’m not sure I can get there with Sam Darnold. He only has one game over 12.2 DK points all season and that is frightening. Let’s face it, if he was a smash play he wouldn’t be just $5,000. He’s 36th in pDB at 0.29 and he has all of three passing touchdowns. Three. There’s not a doubt he’s attached to the worst offense in football but the Raiders are a soft matchup. They’re 18th in DVOA against the pass and all the way down to 27th in yards allowed per game. With Baker and Trubisky right there, it’s almost impossible to want Darnold. Adam Gase ruins everything.

RB – Frank Gore flirted with 3x value last week and he didn’t even score a touchdown. His price barely moved and he’s honestly pretty cheap with 20 touch upside. Not other back in the Jets lineup is getting any attention right now and Gore played just about 60% of the snaps. Vegas is a mixed bag against the run. They’ve only allowed the 12th fewest yards per game but they are 32nd in DVOA against the run. What could really put Gore over the top is the Raiders have surrendered 13 rushing touchdowns, the second-most in the league. He’s in play as weird as it sounds. I totally understand why folks don’t want to play him and I will only have a share or two. Don’t misinterpret my small interest into thinking he’s a major play for me.

WR – It seems like the passing offense is moving away from Jamison Crowder. Since he’s come back from injury, he’s only seen a 12.6% target share to 24% for Breshad Perriman and a whopping 30.4% for Denzel Mims. That’s a massive switch in the offense and if it holds up, the salaries are really cheap for Perriman and Mims. Both of them are working as deep targets with an aDOT over 18.0.

Perriman is mostly seeing Damon Arnette and he’s allowing a 12.9 YPR on 24 targets. The rookie Mims should face Trayvon Mullen who is at a respectable 1.70 pPT. Crowder gets the softest statistical matchup with Nevin Lawson who has allowed a 66.7% catch rate and a 111.3 passer rating. It’s just hard not to notice this shift in offense. Perhaps it’s just a two week blip and there was only one game with Darnold. I’d be willing to go to a low-owned Crowder one last time here before staying away.

TE – Over the past four games, Chris Herndon has three games under one DK point. That says all we need to say.

D/ST – It’s everyone’s favorite punt and the Raiders have 11 fumbles, second-most in football. They are capable of negative points but they’ve been playing fairly strong the past two weeks with three combined turnovers and seven sacks. I’m not going to argue if you throw them in and love the rest of the lineup.

Cash – Gore

GPP – Crowder, Perriman, Mims, Darnold, D/ST

Saints at Falcons, O/U of 45 (Saints -2.5)

Saints – Pace is 31st

QB – This is a repeat spot since these teams squared off just two weeks ago. In that game, Taysom Hill smashed his price point because he ran in two touchdowns. That’s been a staple of Hill’s game so far since he has four rushing touchdowns, one interception and zero touchdown passes. Hill hasn’t looked great so far although the Falcons did their best to make him feasible. They sit 26th in DVOA against the pass they are still 31st in passing yards allowed. I still have trouble making peace with playing Hill. He’s had 10 rushing attempts in both games which helps raise the floor, as we know rushing yards are the Konami code. If he hits a game where he throws a couple touchdowns with rushing production, he could hit a ceiling game. I still worry as the tape gets longer on Hill, he’ll get easier to stop. The floor here is safe with the rushing and the matchup so you can play him in cash I suppose but it’s not for me.

RB – Once again, I will not have any Alvin Kamara. Perhaps it’s a blind spot in GPP to have no interest, but the games with Hill have been a nightmare for Kamara. He’s had a combined 25 touches in those games and only one reception. That’s what Kamara does best and taking that away is going to potentially crush his value. Atlanta is 10th in DVOA against the run and New Orleans has split carries between Kamara and Latavius Murray all year. Kamara is a 128 attempt while Murray is at 121. Last week was mostly game script that Murray got 19 carries, but even he got a reception. This is not the best spot for either and I’m passing until we see some form of floor come back for Kamara.

WR – This isn’t just game log watching, but I’m interested in Michael Thomas in a big way this week. With Hill, Thomas has seen 75.9% of the air yards share and 48.7% of the target share. Sure, it’s only two games but Hill seemingly has one idea and that’s get the ball to Thomas. This game should require them to throw a good bit more seeing as how they have to face a real offense this week. Rookie A.J. Terrell didn’t stop him the first time and I tend to doubt he stops him this time with a 2.20 pPT on 61 targets so far this year.

Emmanuel Sanders is on the radar, but vaguely at that. He’s only been targeted six times so far, although five of them came against Atlanta. Darqueeze Dennard hasn’t been anything special with a 1.60 pPT but this is just opportunity-based for Sanders. There’s so many receivers to play that I’m not interested in chasing here. Hill has really killed many facets of the passing game so far through two games.

TE – Jared Cook has turned into a complete non-factor in the past month, scoring a total of 5.6 DK points across four games and seeing jus eight targets. The price has come down but I would rather play Austin Hooper because Hill seemingly caps the touchdown upside.

D/ST – The New Orleans defense is on a roll, scoring at least 14 DK for four straight weeks. They’ve only allowed 28 total points and one of those games came against the Falcons. If Atlanta is down offensive weapons again, New Orleans is well in play with 33 sacks (fourth-most) and 18 takeaways (fourth-most).

Cash – MT, D/ST

GPP – Kamara, Hill

Falcons – Pace is 7th

QB – Matt Ryan continued his poor fantasy play without Julio Jones in the lineup this year, only putting up 14.9 DK. I do think that was more due to the lead the Falcons had although he still threw the ball 39 times. The veteran has really been a little tough to trust this season. He’s second in attempts overall but only 25th in pDB at 0.41 and 15th in touchdowns. The yardage is great, sitting fifth in the league but he’s just 14th in points per game. It does not appear that he’ll have Julio Jones in the lineup this week either and that has meant bad results so far this year. Oddly enough, I prefer Baker and Trubisky to Ryan. I never thought that I would say that in 2020 if Ryan was just $5,600 but here we are.

RB – Todd Gurley may or may not suit up but I’m not at all interested in any Falcons running back. If it’s Brian Hill, Ito Smith, Gurley…it’s irrelevant. The Saints are nasty against the run, ranking second in DVOA and the fourth-fewest rushing yards to running backs. This is just a terrible spot and it’s not to cut it short, but any back from this backfield is just a really poor play. We’ll see who gets the call closer to kick, but it will not matter to me. Gurley would have to score probably at least twice to get to 3x. That’s possible but we don’t want to play for that.

WR – With Julio going from limited to no practice Thursday and the Falcons missing over pieces, the corps is getting thin. That could help us a good bit since these targets have to go somewhere. A play that Ghost has me looking at pretty hard is Christian Blake. He played 64% of the snaps last week and while the targets weren’t there yet, Olamide Zaccheaus is now on the IR as well. If it’s just Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage and Blake, he could have a chance to destroy minimum price. It’s a risky play but Ridley should be occupied with Marshon Lattimore. He’s been bad this year with a pPT over 1.80 so Ridley and other can eat this week. Blake has played mostly outside which could mean Janoris Jenkins. Statistically he has fared better than Lattimore with only a 1.50 pPT and a 61.2% catch rate. Still, the Falcons could have to pass a lot and they’re sixth in the league in attempts per game. Let’s see who suits up here.

*Update* Julio practiced on Friday so that gives him a better chance of suiting up. What does help all Falcons receivers is the fact that Jenkins for the Saints is out.

TE – Hayden Hurst is falling into one of those tight ends that I’m just fine never playing and missing the occasional big game from. He has a 15.5% target share and runs a route on 84.3% of his snaps, ninth in the league. He just never seems to do ver much with his targets. Even this past week, he saw eight in part because Julio was out and he still couldn’t manage more than 8.8 DK points. It’s not like we’re missing on some giant ceiling either, since Hurst only has two games over 15 DK. Compare that to six games under 10 DK (i.e. not even 3x) and the floor is a more likely outcome. New Orleans is an average team to the position but Hurst actually got zeroed out last game on just two targets.

D/ST – The Falcons were fine for DK scoring the first time around with five points and they’re priced low enough to be worthwhile. I’m pretty interested since this will be the first time a team has seen Taysom twice, and in such a short timeframe.

Cash – D/ST, Ridley

GPP – Jones, Gage, Ryan (would be a cash option if Jones is active)

Lions at Bears, O/U of 44.5 (Bears -3)

Lions – Pace is 6th

QB – I’m not likely to be looking at Matthew Stafford this week considering he’s generally not been great for fantasy and the matchup. Stafford has been missing Kenny Golladay for most of the season and it’s showed, as he’s just 22nd in pDB at 0.42. Stafford is outside the top 12 in touchdowns despite the ninth-most RZ attempts in football. He has worked himself to 11th in yards but that’s not really enough to get me too interested. Not only is Chicago third in DVOA against the pass, Stafford has just four games over 20 DK this season. Chicago has only given up 16 touchdown passes and four of those came from Aaron Rodgers last Sunday night. There’s just not much here to love for Darrell Bevell wants the team to play faster but the jury is out on that.

RB – I’m going to assume that D’Andre Swift will be active this week since he almost made it back last week. In his last two games, he’s seized the backfield with 37 total touches and played over 70% of the snaps against Washington. Even with a coaching change, Swift should continue to be the featured back in this offense and I am quite interested. The Bears have a disconnect in some of their metrics. The DVOA looks very strong at third against the run, but they rank 20th in rushing yards given up per game. I don’t want to call the rookie matchup proof, but if he’s getting all the touches and snaps in this backfield I’m interested even in the difficult spot. If Aikem Hicks for the Bears is out this week, that opens up the possibilities in the run game quite a bit.

*Update* Swift is questionable and reportedly would be in a limited role if active. That would lead me to not want a piece of this backfield at all.

WR – Kenny Golladay is still not practicing and I don’t like the Lions receivers here much at all. He missed the first meeting against the Bears and Marvin Jones saw eight targets but only went 4/55. With no Golladay, Jones likely has to deal with Kyle Fuller. He’s had a 1.50 pPT on 76 targets, and that’s inside the top 20 for corners. You could maybe talk me into Danny Amendola who should be returning. Buster Skrine has manned the slot a good bit for the Bears and he’s allowing a 72.9% catch rate and 113.0 passer rating. I think I prefer him more on DK and in cash as the ceiling might not be there but if they do play fast, he could rack up a good six-to-eight receptions. The last healthy game Amendola played with no Golladay he hit 14.9 on seven receptions. That’s about as far as I would go with the Lions corps.

*Update* Golladay is out, as expected.

TE – This is a really good spot for T.J. Hockenson and he’s already got the Bears for a 5/56/1 line earlier in the year. Hockenson has been one of the most reliable options at the position, rivaling Travis Kelce in that regard. Only once has he been below nine DK points and he was on the injury report that week with a toe issue. Hockenson has earned a 17.7% target share on the season and co-leads in RZ and EZ targets. He’s the TE3 on the season in PPR settings and at $5,000, he’s quite affordable if not punting or spending on Waller. Regardless of who’s in at receiver, Hockenson is a rock solid play all the way around.

D/ST – I don’t mind Detroit, but I would rather play Atlanta. The Lions are talent-deficient on that side of the ball to be sure and only have 16 sacks on the season. They also have the ninth-lowest pressure rate and just 11 turnovers forced. Chicago is a roundly awful offense but Detroit’s defense isn’t much better.

Cash – Hockenson, Amendola

GPP – D/ST, Swift

Bears – Pace is 12th

QB – Garbage time points count too and that’s a good thing for Mitchell Trubisky. Otherwise he was trash as usual and even with three touchdowns, he barely scraped by with a 56.5% completion rate. The pDB doesn’t look that bad at a 0.46 mark, 18th in the league. The Lions defense has gotten shredded all season long and they’re 23rd in DVOA abasing the pass. Only five other teams have allowed more touchdowns than the 22 Detroit has given up. I will give Trubisky credit for putting up a big fantasy day the first game against Detroit with three touchdowns but he might be one of the most untrustworthy players at the position. I’d rather play Mayfield here but Trubisky is on the board as a GPP option with a nice stack in the receiving corps. I’m warming up to him as the week goes in all honesty.

RB – A player that catches my eye for cash early is David Montgomery. He continues to run this backfield when he’s healthy after another 16 touches and a big 28.3 DK score Sunday night. Detroit is a team we’ve attacked with running backs all season and Montgomery is priced too low to pass up. He’s played over 80% of the snaps in every game that he’s been healthy without Tarik Cohen and I love him this week. Detroit has allowed the fourth-most yards, the most DK points per game and 21 total touchdowns on the season. That 21 is pretty easily the most and Monty is likely in my Core as things stand. He could be a strong fade in GPP but seemingly near a lock in cash.

WR – The easiest stack with Trubisky (and an excellent solo play) is Allen Robinson. He’s one of the better receivers in football and has never had the quarterback to show it off totally but if he gets 13 targets like he did Sunday, he’s going to smash again. His 25.1% target share and 28.7% lead the team and there’s not a corner that scares me on the Lions roster. He’s looking like a popular choice this week and I can’t really argue that.

I Don’t know how much of the secondary receivers we really want. Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller are fighting for the second fiddle of the corps and Mooney has a slight two target advantage. He’s also got an advantage in the snap count at 70.9% to 59.2%. Miller holds the RZ lead at 9-5 but Mooney has the air yards share lead at 25.3%. That leads me to prefer Mooney while knowing that neither is the likeliest to go off. Mooney also gets Desmond Trufant who has gotten worked for a 127.6 passer rating, 72.5% catch rate and 2.10 pPT. Those are all 70th or worse among corners. Justin Coleman has played the slot a good bit for Detroit and has allowed a 58.6% catch rate on 29 targets. Mooney is my favorite after Robinson.

TE – The great news for Jimmy Graham is he has 15 and 10 RZ and EZ targets, both which are second in the league. The bad news is unless he converts one of those targets to a score, he’s not going to do much of anything. The only games he’s hit double-digits in DK points have been the four games he’s scored. Detroit has given up the seventh-fewest DK per game to the position and I prefer using tight ends attached to better quarterbacks.

D/ST – I’m not really on Chicago at this price. They’ve been solid but the 21 sacks is nothing to write home about and it’s under two per game. They also only have 11 turnovers. Even though they may hold the Lions under 24 points, I’m not sure if they have enough splash ability to pay off.

Cash – Monty, Robinson

GPP – Trubisky, Mooney, Miller, Graham

Jaguars at Vikings, O/U of 51 (Vikings -10.5)

Jaguars – Pace is 4th

QB – I’m not falling for the Mike Glennon bait. He played well last week but so did Jake Luton in his first game. Glennon has never shown any ability to play well consistently and this is one of the easiest passes on the slate for me. Play Baker or Trubisky.

RB – It’s weird to see that James Robinson is a top five back in PPR, but that’s the kind of season we’ve had. He just doesn’t come off the field hardly ever, accounting for about 95% of the running back attempts from the Jags. He’s fourth in the league in attempts and seventh in receptions. So when we see his salary, it really is warranted as his volume is unique this season. The matchup doesn’t look especially intimidating either. Minnesota is 12th in DVOA against the run but they are also 19th in yards allowed per game. Additionally, they’ve given up the seventh-most receptions. Robinson isn’t a name we consider for cash all that often but doing this for a bad Jacksonville squad is impressive. He’s yet to dip below double-digits in any game this season and seven have been above 15 DK.

WR – We’ll need to update this Friday. As of now, both D.J. Chark and Chris Conley were limited and that is a huge factor for the corps. Colin Johnson popped and played 80% of the snaps with nearly 20 DK points. I might be willing to go back to the well since he saw eight targets to six for Keelan Cole and four for Laviska Shenault. We need to know who’s active and who’s not before we break it down much further.

*Update* Chark is active which throws this whole corps into even a bigger question mark. Honestly, the whole thing is mostly an avoid with Glennon pulling the trigger. I’m not interested in Johnson with Chark and possibly Conley back active.

TE – I’m not going crazy that Tyler Eifert caught a touchdown last week. He saw a whopping four targets and only gained 16 yards so it’s just not wise to chase the score. He only runs a route on 66.3% of his snaps and even the 18.6% RZ share doesn’t inspire much confidence in me.

D/ST – The Jags continue to be a bottom of the barrel unit with just 11 sacks and 11 turnovers forced. The minimum salary at least leaves them as a punt option but you cannot expect much from them.

Cash – Robinson

GPP – Chark

Vikings – Pace is 23rd

QB – I’m likely to have some Kirk Cousins this week at his salary. I was very concerned about how he and the offense as a whole would function with the loss of Adam Thielen last week. Well, Cousins kept right on going with a monster 30.18 DK point performance which was very impressive. In fact, Cousins has mostly turned his season around after some choppy waters a the start. Six of his 11 interceptions came in the first three weeks of the season, he’s up to seventh in pDB and seventh in touchdown passes.

The fear is always the lack of attempts at just 20th in the league but the touchdown upside is getting hard to ignore. That’s especially true this week since the Jaguars are 20th in DVOA against the pass and the second-most touchdown passes allowed. I don’t believe my trust level is there for cash, but stacking him with the passing game is super interesting this week. He’s actually looking chalky, which isn’t going to be for me. There’s a player $400 more that I will be ALL IN on if Cousins is actually chalk.

RB – Seeing how high Dalvin Cook is rostered this week is going to be fascinating. He was one of the highest owned players in cash for sure and he flopped pretty hard. Typically, 22 touches from Cook is going to amount to a lot more than just 11 DK points. The Jags got crushed on the ground last week by Chubb and the same outcome is in play here. They are 29th in yards allowed per game, are tied for the fifth-most receptions allowed and 12 total touchdowns. There’s no reason to think Cook doesn’t have a field day here, even if the price is still very high.

WR – I mentioned it with Cousins, but the best way to pivot from Cook is to play the passing game. Thielen and rookie Justin Jefferson are both expensive but their matchup is sterling as well. Jefferson filled in wonderfully with two scores last week but Thielen is fourth in RZ targets and first in EZ targets among receivers. He also has a massive 41.4% share of the air yards and deserves to be at this price. Now what’s interesting is these two don’t always go off together. It’s been an either or deal more weeks than not. The best three weeks they have together in DK points are –

Week 4 – Thielen 29.2, Jefferson 17.3

Week 10 – Thielen 20.3, Jefferson 24.5

Week 11 – Thielen 35.3, Jefferson 17.6

I’m leaning toward just playing one as opposed to the double stack as they typically eat into each other’s results. It would’ve be great if Minshew played because the Jags would have a better chance to keep this one close to force the ceiling result. There’s a lot of question marks for the Jaguars corner so we need to see who’s active to deal with individual matchups.

*Update* Corner Sidney Jones is out, a big help to the Vikings options.

TE – Irv Smith is still not practicing and that leaves Kyle Rudolph as a prime punt for the tight end spot. I still don’t love him with Thielen back, but he does make some sense. Rudolph should see at least 4-5 targets and the Jags are among the worst at defending the position. No team has given up more touchdowns than the nine Jacksonville has. I did like Rudolph more when Thielen was out.

D/ST – They are crazy expensive at $3,500 and I struggle to see why you should spend on them. If you hit this salary, just play the Saints or maybe even Seattle. Minnesota only has 19 sacks on the season and 13 turnovers.

Cash – Cooks, Cousins, Rudolph

GPP – Thielen, Jefferson

Bengals at Dolphins, O/U of 42.5 (Dolphins -11.5)

Bengals – Pace is 13th

QB – This offense was tough to watch last week. They only generated 10 points and Brandon Allen did virtually nothing to help. He was under 59% in completion rate, threw for a puny 136 yards and scored 8.1 DK points. Miami not only sits 11th in DVOA against the pass, but they have a 13:11 TD:INT ratio after not allowing a touchdown to the Jets last game. This is absolutely not the spot I’m looking to attack. The Dolphins are a good defense with a solid pressure rate of 23%. I can’t find reason to play Allen and would rather take the shot with Darnold (and I don’t want him).

RB – I kind of want to take a shot with Gio Bernard since the weakness of the Miami defense is against the run. I mean, Gore ran for over 70 yards. My fear is the Bengals might not commit to running the ball here considering they ran it with Gio eight times last week to 29 attempts to Allen. That’s just a silly game plan, even acknowledging that every team can load the box against the Bengals. The Dolphins are 29th in DVOA against the run and they are 26th in yards given up. Gio is cheap but the offense is very untrustworthy. He’s been under 10 DK for three straight weeks so he’ll certainly not be popular at all.

WR – It was mostly a rough week for Cincy but Tee Higgins came through yet again with a solid fantasy day. It did come with a touchdown because normally 5/44 isn’t that exceptional but with Allen, you’ll take what you can get. The matchup isn’t great for him against Xavien Howard either. Howard is 10th among corners with a 1.40 pPT and is first in passer rating allowed at 45.7. That really leaves me low on Higgins this week.

Since Tyler Boyd runs ins the slot, he’s going to be the favored receiver from the team but I don’t love him. He actually still has the target lead at a 21.6% share and he’s the RZ leader with 11 targets. Nik Needham can be picked on but we’ve seen Flores slide over a safety/linebacker to help him before. Boyd is my favorite but I’m not really going to this spot.

TE – I don’t want to get too crazy here, but it is interesting Drew Sample was involved in the offense this past week. He saw five targets which is the third-most he’s got all season long. He’s playing the 10th most snaps among tight ends and runs a route 68.7% of time which is passable. Sample was a bit of a security blanket for Allen and he is very cheap in salary, so I might punt with him. Miami hasn’t been bad to tight ends so far, in the top eight in DK points per game. Just 9-10 points would get it done as a punt play.

D/ST – Any defense against Ryan Fitzpatrick should at least be on the radar, but that’s about as far as I go. They only have 11 turnovers and 13 sacks on the season with the lowest pressure rate in football. Barring a FitzMagic Meltdown, I can’t see how they succeed in this spot.

Cash – None

GPP – Boyd, Higgins, Gio, Sample

Dolphins – Pace is 29th

QB – It’s shaping up to be another Ryan Fitzpatrick week as Tua is listed as doubtful. The Bengals offer another excellent matchup for The Beard as they rank 26th in DVOA against the pass and are tied for the third-most touchdowns given up. Even without pushing the envelope that much, Fitzpatrick put up a comfortable 250 and two last week against the Jets. In his playing time this season, Fitzpatrick is 14th in pDB, fifth in deep ball completion (20 attempts) and first in pressured completion rate. He’s another rock solid play this week if you find the upper tier in pricing not in your budget for cash, although I want to spend up a bit this week myself.

RB – We’re still waiting on Myles Gaskin news. There was a chance for him to play last week and he’s been at practice, so maybe this is the week he comes back. If not, Salvon Ahmed has been limited and could re-take the backfield. The Bengals are only 21st in DVOA against the run so that’s not all that formidable. They sit over 1,500 scrimmage yards allowed so my interest will be dictated by who I can or can’t play.

*Update* Ahmed is doubtful but we still don’t have clarity on Gaskin. That reads like the Dolphins would prefer to not play him but might not have a choice.

WR – DeVante Parker leads the Dolphins in air yards share, target share and touchdowns so he is quite interesting to me this week. With potential Allen Robinson chalk at $300 more, Parker could be a very stealthy pick and has a good matchup to boot. William Jackson has allowed a 14.7 YPR and that’s 66th among corners. Additionally, he’s 44th in yards per target at 8.3 and Fitzpatrick should continue to utilize him as a number one in the passing game. There really isn’t any type of trustworthy secondary option here and we have other routes to take.

TE – It was nice to see Mike Gesicki in the end zone and that was about all he did. He did see five targets but every game but one is under 15 DK on the season. Gesicki is now under 15% for his target share on the season and he’s only 30th in snap share on the season. In fairness, he’s running the eighth-highest route percentage among tight ends but it’s just not turning into anything. No team allows more yards to tight ends than the Bengals and they’ve given up six scores. I really just wish I had more faith that Gesicki could take advantage.

D/ST – They’re a smash play on paper but they are also the most expensive play and we know how I feel about those units. Miami has 18 turnovers forced which is third-most in the league and they have ceiling potential. The issue is you would want about 15 DK or more to pay off that price. That’s a lot for a defense, but it is possible in this spot.

Cash – Parker, Fitzpatrick

GPP – D/ST, Gesicki, Gaskin if active

Giants at Seahawks, O/U of 47 (Seahawks -10)

Giants – Pace is 19th

QB – Daniel Jones has not practiced yet so it looks like Colt McCoy is going to be the man this week. Over 933 attempts, McCoy has a completion rate of 60.7% and a 29:27 TD:INT ratio. The Giants offense was only scoring 19.5 points per game, 30th in the league. Seattle has certainly been a defense we’ve picked on but they have been better as of late. They also showed they can handle a sub-par offense and that’s why the Giants are at this point. There’s no reason to play McCoy in my eyes.

RB – I don’t want to say he’s out of play completely but I don’t love Wayne Gallman this week. The price is still very affordable even coming off an 18.1 DK point game but he’s still under $6,000. Gallman has been over 55% of the snaps the past three games and he’s taken over the backfield for the Giants. Last week was a massive 27 touches but that was a perfect game script. Not only is that a concern, but the Seahawks are actually pretty good against the run this year. They are eighth in DVOA against the run and have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game. Part of that is they’ve faced the fewest rushing attempts so far on the year, but this doesn’t shape up as a good spot for Gallman in my eyes.

WR – Sterling Shepard has been one of the focal points in the passing game since he returned from injury, with 40 targets over five games. If Jones was under center, I would have been happy to play him. Now, there is definitive risk. Since he only has a 7.2 aDOT he could still have enough receptions to make his price work but it’s a much more volatile spot. Shaquill Griffin should be tasked with checking Shepard and Griffin has allowed a 104.2 passer rating thus far. Darious Slayton is the deep threat but that means he has goose egg outcomes as a possibility, just like last week. With McCoy at the helm on the road, I’ll pass.

TE – The other focal point of the passing game has been Evan Engram, who leads Shepard by one target. He’s a player that I think has gotten a hair pricey with a backup quarterback. Most of his production last week came with with Jones playing and that is frightening. He has an almost identical aDOT that Shepard does so these two absolutely stand out as the best option of the passing game. Seattle (for all their flaws) is inside the top 12 to tight ends for DK points per game his year. Only four teams have allowed fewer receptions so Shepard is my favorite overall play from the Giants.

D/ST – The Giants might actually have some potential at their salary. As well as Russell Wilson has played this season, he’s second in turnovers and sacks taken combined. I fully expect the Giants to give up close to 30 but 2-3 sacks and a turnover gets them around 4-6 DK points. That’s enough at this salary.

Cash – None

GPP – Shepard, Engram, D/ST, Gallman

Seahawks – Pace is 20th

QB – The past three weeks have been pretty mediocre for Russell Wilson, scoring under 15 DK points twice and 20 DK in the other game. The yardage has not been over 248 and he’s only thrown three touchdowns. What’s interesting and needs to be noted is the change in philosophy the past three. Seattle has fallen to 23rd in passing attempts and are 12th in rushing attempts in that span. That’s the exact opposite of #LetRussCook and he could be over-priced if that continues. They are 2-1 in those games so it hasn’t exactly killed them. We all know what Russ is capable of. The Giants are 29th in DVOA against the pass and Wilson could throw for three or more touchdowns any given game. Russ is third in point per game, second in touchdown passes and third in yards. Still, I’m a little leery at his salary given the shift for the Hawks here. One reason to play him is he might be almost un-rostered (it’s a word, don’t worry about it) this week. If you get Russ with nobody playing him, that could be a slate-breaker.

RB – If we get some inkling towards the usage, Chris Carson could go absolutely nuts here. I was excited to see him back on the showdown slate Monday night but he played under 40% of the snaps and ceded touches to a 17-10 ratio. Carlos Hyde had a touchdown taken away but past that, he accomplished nothing. His 17 touches turned into 29 scrimmage yards. Hopefully Carson is full go for this one because the Giants have given up over 1,400 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns. Carson is also sneakily involved in the passing game with an 11.3% target share. Let’s double back if we get some more information.

*Update* Coach Pete Carroll said Carson is going to see more work, so I’m playing him in any format. I really like him this week and if Jonathan Taylor turns popular, I’ll be making the effort to get to Carson in GPP.

WR – The receivers have turned into a pretty cut and dry situation for me. D.K. Metcalf is my favorite, every single time. Look, Tyler Lockett is a very talented player but he’s overpriced given his production week to week. He’s had two games over 40 DK and the rest have not hit 3x at his current salary. The only corner to fully mute DK so far has been Jalen Ramsey for the Rams. Metcalf had a poor scoring game against the Cards but he also had a long touchdown taken off the board due to penalty.

Metcalf now leads the league in receiving yards and has dropped at least two touchdowns the past couple games. Only Thielen has more EZ targets than Metcalf. Giants corner James Bradberry has played well, to be sure. He’s only given up a 9.8 YPR, fourth-best in he league. The 1.60 on 73 targets is very impressive as well. Metcalf is just different and that YPR is about to go up. There is zero question that Lockett gets the easier matchup against Darnay Holmes. He’s allowed a 68.2% catch rate, 111.6 passer rating and a 1.90 pPT but I still view Lockett as a dangerous investment. He’s either going ham or doing squat if the pattern continues.

*Update* Bradberry did apparently not learn the lesson from last week – don’t make DK angry. He was quoted as saying that if you take away the deep routes for DK, he won’t do all that much. I think Metcalf is going to take that personally (insert Michael Jordan meme).

TE – No player really stepped up with the loss of Greg Olsen although both Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister played 55% of the snaps or higher. Hollister looks to be the preferred play since he drew five targets to just one for Dissly, but we shouldn’t expect much from either player. On top of that, New York has been stout to the position so far with only two scores given up.

D/ST – I wish they were a little cheaper but they are still in play. It will also help if Carlos Dunlap is able to go as he has a foot injury. Seattle actually has 31 sacks on the season and Dunlap and the return of safety Jamal Adams have been huge. Daniel Jones has been sacked the fifth-most times in football so that’s not likely to improve here with McCoy.

Cash – Metcalf, Carson, D/ST

GPP – Lockett, Wilson

Rams at Cardinals, O/U of 48 (Rams -2.5)

Rams – Pace is 16th

QB – It could be time to play Jared Goff roulette again because he has a solid spot here. We’ve seen the good and the bad from Goff the past two weeks with a 28 DK showing against the Bucs and then a six DK point game against the 49ers. Alrighty then. Truthfully, there’s not a lot of metrics that would really stand out. He’s only 25th in pDB, he’s 27th in deep ball completion rate and RZ completion rate to go along with 15th while being pressured. About the only facet he really excels is play-action. No quarterback has attempted more passes from that style of play and he’s second in yardage. Arizona has matching rankings in DVOA against the pass and yards allowed per game at 13th in the league. The 18:10 TD:INT ratio isn’t the worst either so Goff is pretty much the same option he is every week – risky.

RB – Cam Akers has taken over as the most expensive back on the Rams but this is from the Waiver Wire article this week –

Yes, it is the second straight week Akers has found the paint and that’s a big-time positive sign. I’m not trying to put the rookie down. However, it’s important to realize where he’s still at in the pecking order for playing time and that’s still third. Akers has only touched the ball 15 times combined. On the 14 carries he’s had, he has 99 yards with a 61-yard gallop mixed in. You can’t really play the “take this play away and Akers stinks” card because Akers made that big play. It’s just illustrating that he’s been lucky to score twice and create one signature run in 15 touches. Unless he overtakes Darrell Henderson or Malcolm Brown for a bigger role, he could cripple a lineup this week.

Even if Akers took over a larger role, you’re not looking at more than 50% of the snaps based on the usage his year when all three are healthy. The Cards are 14h in DVOA against the backs and this is a situation that I’ll just steer away from instead of trying to predict who scores. Henderson has the RZ attempt lead at a 30-15-9 rate with Akers bringing up the rear.

WR – If I was DK, I’d just price the duo of Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods the same every week. It can be hard to split these guys as far as who you want to play, but when Bobby Trees (Ghost Discord Special) is under $6,000, that makes it easier. Kupp does hold the target advantage by 10 but Woods has 20 rush attempts on the season to even touches out. They are about equal in every way, including RZ and EZ targets, aDOT and even PPR points. Only four points separate them with Woods on top.

Woods will surely see more Patrick Peterson since he’s on the outside of the formation more but I’m not worried there. We’ve talked all season about Peterson taking a step back in his play. He’s up to a 2.20 pPT and a 122.9 passer rating allowed. Byron Murphy plays the slot about 50% of the time so he’ll see most of Kupp. Murphy has been the statistically superior corner with just a 1.40 pPT and 85.5 passer rating. However, he also allows a 62% catch rate. The salaries do make it easy to play both with Goff if you get the roulette game right with the quarterback. The majority of the production will funnel through these two.

TE – I’m at the point of ignoring the Rams tight ends. Neither Tyler Higbee nor Gerald Everett run enough routes or get targeted enough to be valuable on anything approaching a consistent basis. Higbee only runs a route about 52% of the time and Everett sees fewer snaps and runs less routes.

D/ST – I feel like as long as Aaron Donald is on this side, they are in play. They’re a little pricey but Donald and company could really disrupt the offense here. The Rams have accumulated 34 sacks and 18 turnovers so far, along with a bottom 10 blitz rate. That could help them keep Kyler Murray in check on the ground, if he’s able to run.

Cash – Woods, Kupp

GPP – Goff, D/ST

Cardinals – Pace is 2nd

QB – Perhaps the biggest factor in this game is the ability of Kyler to run. Since he hurt his shoulder early in the Seahawks game, he’s run a combined 10 times the past two weeks. That facet has been such a massive part of the Cards offense and his fantasy success that it’s hard to not be leery here. Kyler has only scored a combined 29 DK the past two games and he bottomed out in New England. The Rams are fourth in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the fewest DK points per game to the quarterback. This is not the spot to play Kyler unless we know he can run. He’s an above average quarterback but take his legs away and the outlook becomes much more of a variable. At his salary, you want safety and upside.

*Update* Kyler practiced in full, a great sign for his shoulder

RB – Conversely, Kenyan Drake has seen his outlook take a huge leap with Kyler not running. Not only has Drake racked up 33 attempts and three touchdowns, but the targets suddenly appeared for him. It turns out that when Kyler doesn’t take off, he uses his safety valve and Drake has seen nine targets the past two games. That’s the exact same number as Chase Edmonds and it’s not hard to draw the exact line as to why. While the Rams are still a tough matchup (seventh in DVOA, sixth-least DK per game allowed) the RZ work for Drake has been massive. The past two games have seen him take a 12-1 ratio from Kyler and the Cards are clearly limiting Murray. Drake is still too cheap for his workload and touchdown equity until Kyler is healthy (which appears to be the case).

WR – I would have to assume that Jalen Ramsey is going to follow DeAndre Hopkins all over the field this week. Ramsey isn’t unbeatable with a 61% catch rate allowed. However, Ramsey also allows just a 1.40 pPT and a 79.0 passer rating. Do I really want to pay a premium for Nuk against a top-five corner with a banged up quarterback? I’m leaning no and will probably not have any Hopkins this week.

Does that mean we turn to Christian Kirk? Possibly, but the matchup on the outside against Darious Williams isn’t easy. He’s sporting a 1.60 pPT and just a 58% catch rate allowed. With Kyler not playing as well and not being as dangerous, the passing game certainly takes a big hit. I’m not looking to play anyone unless we get word through the week that Kyler is healthy. Andy Isabella is in play, but the Cards don’t seem to want to use him if they can help it. I really don’t love him.

TE – We can ignore this position just like the Cards do, same as it ever was.

D/ST – The Cardinals defense is certainly an option here as well. Even without stud Chandler Jones, they have been playing tough. It’s not spectacular with 28 sacks and 14 turnovers but they aren’t expensive either. We know that Goff is MORE than capable of poor outings. Arizona is in the top half of the league in pressure rate and they blitz over 40% of the time. It would stand to reason they can create a splash play or two.

Cash – Kyler, D/ST

GPP – Drake, Nuk, Kirk, Isabella

Eagles at Packers, O/U of 48 (Packers -8.5)

Eagles – Pace is 3rd

QB – Do I have to talk about the Eagles offense? Really? It’s so gross. Watching it Monday Night was borderline painful, and I can’t get on board with Carson Wentz. He had a little stretch were he was great for fantasy and a top 10 quarterback. Now he’s gone a month without a 20 DK point game and just looks hideous. Of course, it’s not all his fault with offensive line woes and other issues but let’s not pretend he’s blameless. Wetz is down to 28th in pDB at 0.38, he’s 18th in passing yards and 17th in touchdown passes. The only reason you play him is if you play the comeback narrative. The Packers should be able to have their way offensively, so Wentz could fall backwards into 4x return just like Trubisky did last game. There’s not much else to hang onto here.

RB – I actually love this spot for Miles Sanders provided the Eagles actual think it’s a good idea to get him the ball. We just saw David Montgomery torch this defense and that should be no surprise. Green Bay has given up nearly 1,500 scrimmage yards and they sit 24th in DVOA against the run. Even when he got little work on Monday, he still played over 60% of the snaps and has a 12.8% target share. The gameplan for the Eagles should without a doubt be to emphasize Sanders more. When the passing game is so dreadful, the answer isn’t drop Wentz back 40+ times and give Sanders single digit carries. If he gets 15+ touches, Sanders could be a dynamite GPP option with little attention on him. I do have scoreboard concerns so he’s only GPP for me.

WR – It’s an ugly scene in this receiver room all of the sudden. For some reason, Philly has dialed back Travis Fulgham which is mind-bending. He and Wentz had immediate chemistry but as soon as Jalen Reagor and Alshon Jeffery got back, Fulgham has been a ghost. Reagor and Greg Ward were the only receivers to play over 60% of the snaps and even then, it was barely. Reagor has shown little ability to separate or read a defense so far which is causing issues. It’s a little baffling as to why he’s only played 15% of his snaps from the slot. Jaire Alexander waits on the outside and that really leaves me off Reagor easily. With all the playing time divvied up and no ability to pay off, it’s an easy fade of the entire receiving group in my eyes.

TE – If you want to play Wentz for garbage time, the best stacking partner (and one of the two best solo plays from Philly) looks to be Dallas Goedert. He’s one of the only aspects of the Philly offense working with 16 targets over the past two weeks and back to back 70+ yard games with a touchdown. He would’ve crossed 100 yards on MNF if Wentz didn’t short-arm a throw. Goedert’s price is ridiculously affordable for his position and he’s one of my favorite tight ends on the slate. It’s the player Wentz is the most comfortable with and it might not even be all that close right now.

D/ST – Goodness, no. Philly can get to the quarterback with 36 sacks but I’m not going against the Packers offense at home unless the weather really is a factor.

Cash – Goedert

GPP – Sanders

Packers – Pace is 32nd

QB – Aaron Rodgers at $6,800 in a home game against a defense that can be had through the air? He might be the easiest play on the slate as far as salary and wanting to play him. Rodgers would likely be the MVP favorite if not for some dude named Patrick Mahomes as Rodgers leads the league in touchdown passes, is sixth in yards, sixth in points per game and first in pDB at 0.64. Only twice has he been below 20 DK points all season and he shapes up as my cash game quarterback of choice this week. He’s just far too cheap against the defense that is 20th in DVOA against the pass. Philly has only given up 14 touchdown passes on the year, which is commendable. That’s about to change and A-Rod shouldn’t be the QB5 in salary, much less under $7,000.

RB – The snaps for Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have really been close lately. Since the Jacksonville game Week 10, the highest split was 63% for Jones and since then it’s been closer to 50-50%. Jones also has the touch advantage, but only by a 50-34 rate. That’s closer than I expected and while the scoreboard played a big part in the split last game, it’s still noticeable. Could it be because they’re saving Jones for the playoffs? It’s interesting that Jones is barely over 15 touches a game right now. He always has the ability to go full nuclear but he’s also been over 22 DK just twice this season. Philly is still 11th in DVOA against the run and Jones might be just a straight fade for me.

WR – I’m not sure how to talk about how much I love the Rodgers-Davante Adams stack this week. Adams is expensive to be sure but he should be and the cheapness of Rodgers still give you plenty of avenues to build. His role is just virtually unparalleled in the league with a 33% target share, 43.9% share of the RZ targets and 38.2% of the air yards. I might avoid Darius Slay with lesser receivers but he’s allowed 630 yards on 80 targets so far this season. Adams should do whatever he pleases here.

Allen Lazard is back but Marquez Valdes-Scantling has actually gotten more snaps and two more targets. Lazard should face a good deal of Nickell Robey-Coleman who has allowed a 1.60 pPT. MVS squares off with Avonte Maddox. Both corners have been part-time players but Maddox has allowed a 106.3 passer rating. If playing either, I’ll give a slight edge to MVS but my second piece in the offense resides at the tight end position.

TE – Robert “Big Bob” Tonyan is very interesting to me this week. I’ve been brushing him aside a lot of weeks and that may have been a mistake. He’s still third on the team in both RZ and EZ targets and the 12% target share really isn’t that bad. When you’re attached to an elite offense, four to five targets a week isn’t that bad and the Eagles have struggled with tight ends all year. They’ve gotten tagged for the sixth-most receptions and six scores already. Rodgers and Big Bob are going to take advantage of the linebackers in coverage in this game. If Cousins and Rudolph get popular, playing the Rodgers/Tonyan combo is going to be incredible leverage on it.

D/ST – If a defense has a pulse and are facing the Eagles, you can play them. Wentz leads the league in sacks and turnovers combined, and that’s what we look for at this position. They are pricey but if Philly has to drop back and pass 40 times, the potential is there in spades fro Green Bay.

Cash – Rodgers, Adams, Big Bob

GPP – Jones, D/ST, MVS, Lazard

Patriots at Chargers, O/U of 47.5 (Patriots -1)

Patriots – Pace is 21st

QB – I really dislike I have to consider Cam Newton to some degree here. It’s mostly matchup based because Newton has been sketchy for fantasy all year long. He’s seen wild swing in each direction for his production and is 23rd in passing yards and 35th in passing touchdowns. The only thing keeping him afloat is the rushing production. He’s fourth in rushing yards among quarterbacks and second only to Kyler in rushing touchdowns with nine.

Past that, he’s been pretty dreadful as a traditional quarterback. Newton is under 200 yards passing per game and has more than double the interceptions to touchdowns. I know the Patriots have extremely poor skill position players but it’s still awful from Cam. The only reason I at least have to consider him is salary and the Chargers are 26th in DVOA against the pass. They’ve given up the ninth-most DK points per game and a 21:6 TD:INT ratio. Still, this is a leap of faith play and not likely one I’d go after in less than 20 lineups.

RB – At the risk of New England doing New England things, we might have some kind of read on the running back situation. Sony Michel played all of one snap last week so he’s not really in consideration at all. It comes down to Damien Harris and James White. Harris seems to have a concrete role in the offense since he’s hit double-digit carries in every game except one. I feel lucky White scored two touchdowns last week since he only saw one target. Even then, Harris had four RZ touches to two for White. LA give up a little over 100 yards rushing per game to the backs, so this could be a sneaky decent spot for Harris if it remains close. If not and Cam is forced to pass, maybe he can complete something to White. Then again, it’s Cam so maybe not.

WR – Since Week 7, Jakobi Meyers is fifth in target share which is great but we have to remember that New England is 30th in pass plays per game. He saw six targets last week but Cam only threw 18 times. Meyers has boom possibility and is the clear alpha but he is in a flawed passing game to be sure. If Chargers corner Casey Hayward makes it back, I would expect him to spend time on both Meyers and Damiere Byrd. I’m not thinking he shadows unless he’s required. Hayward has only allowed a 45.5% completion rate, the best in football among corners. What’s still interesting is Hayward has allowed an 18.6 YPR this season so when he’s been had, it’s been downfield. That could put Byrd in play but again, you’re banking on Cam being a functioning quarterback. Both receivers are a dicey play. If the Chargers can put up points, they should see the floors come up a bit.

TE – I’m not chasing Ryan Izzo’s high-water mark of 7.9 DK since he has a total of 19 targets.

D/ST – I’m not overly thrilled here with a West Coast swing and facing a dangerous offense, but I suppose Justin Herbert could have some rookie moments against Bill Belichick and company. I just wish New England got to the quarterback more with just 15 sacks. The young quarterback has taken the ninth-most sacks in the NFL so it’s possible but they aren’t my favorite play.

Cash – None

GPP – Meyers, Harris, White, Cam, Byrd, D/ST

Chargers – Pace is 8th

QB – As great as Herbert has been, I will have a very difficult time not playing Rodgers for $100 cheaper. That likely leaves Herbert as a great GPP option but for most of my exposure, it’ll be Rodgers. There’s a bit of a disconnect between the DVOA and results for New England. The DVOA says they’re 30th against the pass, but they’ve only given up the seventh-fewest DK points per game. The 16:12 TD:INT ratio allowed certainly helps those point totals. Herbert himself has been elite by about anything we could measure. He’s seventh in attempts, 11th in RZ attempts, seventh in touchdowns, eighth in yards, fifth in points per game and 10th in pDB. I don’t think the Patriots defense is something we actively hide from, it’s just loving Rodgers so much more.

RB – Another reason I’m not bending over backwards to play Herbert is because most of my LA exposure is coming from Austin Ekeler. He played 72% of the snaps and racked up 25 touches, true bell cow usage. Ekeler was a poor man’s CMC last week with SIXTEEN targets. That’s immense and on DK especially, that’s such a massive floor. The way he was used and the snaps are an absolute dream. No, I do not think he splits time with Kalen Ballage. So let’s get that out of the way. Herbert has targets a back on 23% of his throws. If Ekeler continues to get this style of work, he’s far too cheap. He went 3x despite at his current price despite not scoring last week. I absolutely love Ekeler again here.

WR – The great news is even with Ekeler seeing 16 targets, Keenan Allen still held strong with 10. He only caught four of them but we’re just looking for volume now that Ekeler is back. Allen is still splitting time about half and half in the slot, so I would not think he gets a true shadow treatment. When he’s in the slot, I’d expect Jonathan Jones and then likely some Stephon Gilmore when he’s out wide. Neither terrify me at this point, especially Gilmore. Hopkins was muted last week but I suspect that’s a Kyler issue. Jones has allowed a 105.1 passer rating on 64 targets while Gilmore is 102.6 with a 1.90 pPT mark over 44 targets.

The player I fear for most in this offense now is Mike Williams. He saw five targets but Herbert also threw the ball 51 times. He’ll likely see Gilmore when Allen doesn’t. I may not fear Gilmore with elite receivers, but secondary ones are different. I’m probably just using Allen from this corps this week.

TE – Hunter Henry has scored at least 13 DK points for three weeks straight but he really feels pricey. He did see 10 targets last week, a season high but that seems unlikely to repeat. If I’m spending this far up I’d rather just play Hockenson for Detroit (especially if they do play faster). The Patriots have only allowed one score to tight ends so far and for $4,800, I’d want more stability and a better chance at scoring.

D/ST – Joey Bosa went Wolverine Berserker last week and helped the Chargers score nine DK points. As long as Cam is a quarterback, I’m in on the opposing defense especially when they’re cheap. LA only has 20 sacks on the year but they’ve had horrible injury luck. This is a mostly un-skilled offense and a multi-turnover day with 2-3 sacks is in the range of outcomes.

Cash – Ekeler, Allen, D/ST

GPP – Herbert, Henry

Core Four

David Montgomery, Brandin Cooks, Devontae Booker, Dalvin Cook

This is a good time to remind folks that the Core is built for cash. For instance, Cooks and Booker will be chalky but I don’t particularly love either as a play. I think Cooks especially has a strong chance to fail. However, if I’m wrong and he goes nuts at 70% we’re in trouble. Booker may have touches stolen by Richard or others, but I still feel strongly about at least 12-14. Monty is chalk and Detroit’s run defense is so bad, he’s a very strong play regardless of format in my eyes. Lastly, Cook should crush Jacksonville just like Nick Chubb did one week ago.

Primary Game Stacks

PHI/GB – Rodgers, Adams, Tonyan, Sanders, potentially Goedert but I don’t love the two tight ends in the same lineup. The Packers side is my main stack overall this week.

CLE/TEN – AJB, Chubb, Henry, Baker, Landry, Davis, Higgins, Hooper, Tannehill

LAR/ARI – Woods, Kupp, Kyler, Goff, Drake, Nuk, Kirk

Secondary Game Stacks

IND/HOU – Taylor, Pittman, Hilton, Coulter, Coutee, Cooks, Rivers, Akers

DET/CHI – Trubisky, Robinson, Mooney, Monty, Hockenson, Miller

JAX/MIN – Cook, Thielen, Jefferson, Cousins – May not have a run back here past Robinson

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

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NFL Game by Game Breakdown Week 12

It was a pretty solid Thursday to get us off and running for the week. The team and the Game by Game hit on a lot of the right plays, even if neither game was all that exciting. We might have 12 games on the main slate, but that seems very much in doubt because the Ravens can’t get their act together. If it plays, that breakdown is in the Thanksgiving Day Game by Game. It will be updated with any pertinent information like Lamar Jackson missing IF it plays. For now, we can focus on the 11 games that seem to be safe and get ready for who we want to play and stack up in NFL Game By Game Breakdown Week 12!

Titans at Colts, O/U of 51.5 (Colts -3)

Titans – Pace is 4th

QB – These two teams are well-acquainted since they just played each other in Week 10. That’s a game that Ryan Tannehill would just as soon forget since it was his worst fantasy game of the season, not even breaking 11 DK points. Overall for Tannehill, the numbers look pretty strong once again. He only has five turnovers on the season to go with 22 touchdown passes and one rushing score. He remains great on a pPD point of view, ranking fifth at 0.56. Tannehill’s biggest “issue” for fantasy is the Titans are 27th in pass plays per game.

That doesn’t leave him a lot of room for any inefficiency and the matchup doesn’t do him any favors either. Even after getting tagged by Aaron Rodgers, the Colts defense still ranks fourth in DVOA and fourth in passing yards allowed per game. There’s another quarterback who is $100 cheaper in a smash spot late on and even in GPP’s with more popularity, I’d probably rather play that player. Tannehill is only on the board as an MME option to me.

RB – It’s very possible that Derrick Henry comes in as a stealth option this week. Three of his last four games he’s rushed for over 100 yards and he’s hit at least 14.9 DK in those three games. Even against Indy the first time around, Henry ran for 103 and was actually at a 5.4 YPC. Once Tennessee got down later in the game, Henry wasn’t a huge factor since he only has 22 targets on the season. If the game had stayed closer he could have had an even bigger game. The tougher matchup on paper and lack of pass catching leaves him out of cash for me this week. Indy is fourth against the run in DVOA and third in rushing yards allowed per game, but they have allowed 111 yards per contest in the past three. You could catch Henry under 10% and he’s capable of going off for 30 DK here with multiple touchdowns.

*Update* Colts defensive stud DeForest Buckner is out with Covid and that is a big-time boost to Henry and honestly the whole offense. Buckner is among the best lineman in the game and he’s a key cog for the Indy defense. I know Ghost is on Henry and I’m on board with this call. Make sure to check out the live stream on Sunday at 11am to get his take!

WR – The nose for the end zone with A.J.. Brown continues as he scored again last week. He’s only been held out of the end zone just twice so far this season and one of those times was two weeks ago against the Colts. What game log watcher might not realize is AJB dropped what could have been a monster play in that game and seemed to get rattled after that. He’s back under $7,000 and despite the more difficult matchup statistically, I think he needs to be on the radar. Xavier Rhodes has been playing like one of the best corners in the league with a 1.40 pPT and 47.9% catch rate allowed but AJB is special.

Corey Davis just keeps chugging and it doesn’t seem like anyone is giving him any attention. Considering he’s the WR2 in a run-based offense, 549 yards in eight games is a pretty big deal. He turned in 19.3 DK points last week and saw his price rise by just $100. Davis actually holds a very slight edge in air yards over Brown and is only four targets behind him for the team lead. I said it last week, but the price disparity really shouldn’t be this wide. Even though Brown has four more touchdowns, he’s only out-scored Davis by 20 PPR points this season. He also gets the easier matchup on paper against Rock Ya-Sin who sits at a 1.70 pPT and a 69.8% catch rate.

TE – Indy has been fairly lethal against tight ends so far with the fourth-fewest DK points allowed per game. They have only allowed one touchdown and it was scored on a rush attempt by one Jonnu Smith, who has some serious touchdown appeal. Only Darren Waller of the Raiders has a higher RZ share, as Smith is at 30.9%. Smith is tied for the third-most RZ targets overall and fourth in EZ targets. He needs every once of touchdown upside he can get because Smith only runs a route on 59.6% of his snaps, 27th in the league. Much like the Titans offense as a whole, I don’t mind him exactly but he’s not a cash play or close to it.

D/ST – For all the good Coach Mike Vrabel has done with this team, the defensive side of the ball is just not that great. They allow right about 26 points per game and have just 12 sacks on the entire year. That’s the second-fewest in the league and the Titans are 32nd in pressure rate at just 17.5%. I’ll pass on them.

Cash – None

GPP – Henry, Davis, Brown, Smith, Tannehill

Colts – Pace is 20th

QB – The production for Philip Rivers has been better lately with seven touchdowns in the past four games, but that doesn’t mean it’s all that great. It also doesn’t mean his price should be $6,100 and I’m basically not all that interested at that salary. He does have a toe injury that was bugging him on Sunday but he’s still expected to start. Rivers just hasn’t been anything special at his position all year. He’s 25th in pDB, points per game, 23rd in touchdowns, 12th in passing yards and 13th in attempts. That’s not what we like to go after, especially at the salary. Rivers threw for 308 yards last game but only had one touchdown, capping him under 19 DK points. That would technically be a 3x return but just barely. We have better options even though Tennessee is just 25th in DVOA against the pass.

RB – Lol. I hate this backfield. After Nyheim Hines shredded Tennessee for over 100 scrimmage yards, I figured the Colts would ride the hot hand into their next game. Well, that was a swing and a miss. Hines only touched the ball nine times and played under 40% of the snaps. The somewhat good news was Jordan Wilkins was minimized with just five touches. Rookie Jonathan Taylor entered the game having been iced out of the offense the past couple weeks. Naturally, he had 26 touches and actually had a longer run called back that would have pushed him up near 30 DK.

It’s just impossible to know who’s going to get the work every week. Taylor is the most talented back and he could have a big game this week. The Titans are 19th in DVOA against the run and are 20th in rushing yards allowed per game. Additionally, they’ve given up 14 total touchdowns. It’s nice to know that Taylor was targeted in the passing game. I’m 49% sure that if you threw me in the backfield, Rivers would target me just because I was the “running back” on the play. If you think Leonard Fournette has bad hands, you haven’t seen anything. Anyways, Taylor is my back of choice but you simply cannot consider him in cash.

*Update* Taylor is out on the Covid list and Hines really jumps to the forefront with his salary. I still expect there to be some type of split between Hines and Wilkins. Hines is my priority but Wilkins could be a nice pivot off the chalkier $4,000 running back we’ll talk about later.

WR – The weapons for Indy are very difficult to figure out and that extends past the running backs. Since Michael Pittman came back in Week 8 from injury, the highest target share is Zach Pascal…at 13.89. He has one more target than Pittman, and that leads the team in that four week period. The good news for Pittman is he’s flashed big play ability, with 40 and 45 yard receptions in back to back games. Those have come after the catch for the most part and we see the blend of size and speed that led him to be a high second-round pick. Malcolm Butler isn’t a corner that makes me scared at all.

Pascal himself likely doesn’t have the same upside that Pittman does, although the RZ work is just 3-2 to Pittman’s favor. I can no longer play T.Y. Hilton as he has no touchdowns, sits 76th in yards, 65th in receptions and is 58th in air yards in the NFL.

TE – Find someone in your life that loves you like Rivers loves his tight ends. Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle both played over 50% of the snaps last week, while Trey Burton was around 35%. Doyle saw six targets, Alie-Cox saw two and Burton saw five. He and Doyle both hauled in a touchdown, but Doyle finished under eight DK points and Burton barely cleared 10. It’s a mess and having potentially 7-8 players that can be involved any week is a nightmare. With the Titans being in the bottom 10 to tight ends and allowing six scores, one of these players is scoring. Burton has the most RZ targets with Pittman active so he’s the one I’d lean, though Doyle holds slight appeal in MME formats at minimum price.

D/ST – I normally don’t like using defenses against the Titans. They have the fewest giveaways in the NFL at five and Tannehill has only been sacked 14 times. The Colts have generated the third-most turnovers in the league and have 22 sacks, so they are generally cheaper than they should be. It’s just not likely to get a ceiling game in this one.

Cash – Hines

GPP – Pittman, Burton, Rivers, Pascal, Doyle

Cardinals at Patriots, O/U of 49.5 (Cardinals -1.5)

Cardinals – Pace is 2nd

QB – There has to be some lingering concerns for Kyler Murray, who injured his shoulder the last game we saw him. It seemed to affect his throws and he only ran five times, matching his season-low. Considering that game was one that they trailed, you’d have to think not running much was a choice. Provided he’s cleared and everything is fine, Murray is still the cheat code at the quarterback position. His running alone makes him a worthy choice every week but the passing upside gives him 40 DK point upside. Kyler is still first in pDB at 0.66 and points per game so the price is totally fair. If you’re scoring 20 DK points on a floor game, that says a lot in and of itself. The Pats are down to 30th in DVOA against the pass, and Kyler should be able to have his way as long as he’s healthy.

*Update* The Cardinals are having discussion about making three quarterbacks active just in case. Murray would not be a player I’d use in that scenario and Mahomes $200 cheaper would be the play about 98 times out of 100 for me.

RB – Ever since Kenyan Drake has come back, he and Chase Edmonds have split snaps almost 50/50. However, Drake has the advantage in touches in a pretty major way at 32-17. New England isn’t much to fear on either front with being ranked 31st in DVOA against the run and allowing the 21st most rushing yards per contest. I actually like Drake a decent amount here. Yes, Murray has the chance to tilt you every single trip to the red zone but Drake has a 7-4 lead in RZ attempts the past two weeks. Folks could see the snap rate being so close and assume the workload is the same, but that hasn’t been true at all. Give me the touches when the prices are about the same. If Murray isn’t running to protect the shoulder, I think the ceiling really takes off for Drake. He might well be one of my favorite GPP plays of the entire slate.

WR – I’m going to be very interested to see where the perception is on DeAndre Hopkins this week. He’s coming off one of the more single disappointing games of the year, flopping against the terrible Seahawks secondary. Now he gets to face Stephon Gilmore and it needs to be said that Gilmore has been way worse this season. Nuk is still third in raw targets and has a 28.8% target share on the season, so the price is justified. If we can get him sub-5% I’m going to be interested. Gilmore has been far worse in 2020. Through 38 targets, he’s allowing a 13.8 YPR and a 105 passer rating.

Hopkins wasn’t the only player that disappointed last game as Christian Kirk didn’t break double-digit DK points. Kyler was content to dump the ball to Larry Fitzgerald all night so Hopkins and Kirk suffered a bit. That’s not a fear this week because Fitzgerald has Covid, so the Cards lose his 17.1% target share. We normally fear Bill Belichick taking away the primary weapon for the opposite team, but I’m not convinced the Patriots are capable this year. Kirk should see J.C. Jackson, who can be picked on as well with a 2.10 pPT. Andy Isabella enters as a GPP target with Fitzgerald out, but just remember he’s not exactly draped himself in glory in limited chances this year.

TE – Unless it’s a showdown slate, we can safely ignore any Cardinals tight end.

D/ST – Quietly, the Arizona defense is ninth in total DVOA and have 12 takeaways and 25 sacks. They are priced fairly with the Patriots having 15 giveaways and they allow the second-highest pressure rate in football at 27.7%. The Cards are in the upper half in pressure rate even with the loss of Chandler Jones. This is not a bad play at all.

Cash – Drake (I feel safe with him but he’s not needed), D/ST

GPP – Kyler (pending health updates), Hopkins, Kirk, Edmonds, Isabella

Patriots – Pace is 21st

QB – I guess Cam Newton heard me say he lacked passing upside because all he did was go out and throw for 345 yards this past week. He only ran three times against the worst rushing defense in football, because 2020. My concerns with Newton still run deep. He’s just 13th in pDB, 15th in points per game and 36th in passing touchdowns. Rushing production can overcome some of these numbers but the matchup is significantly tougher this week. Arizona is 13th in DVOA against the pass and 18th in yards allowed, to go with an 18:8 TD:INT ratio. Newton has multi-touchdown upside every game but I’m not a fan of the price and the risk he brings as a quarterback. Those weapons are still not good.

RB – The Pats are down a back with the injury to Rex Burkhead, which opens up some potential for James White. He was targeted nine times this past week and of course the game script played a big part in that. We might have a similar spot as far as script if New England has to chase points with the Cards. White isn’t likely to do much on the ground with just 21 attempts on the season, but Burkhead had an 11.6% target share. We know that White is accomplished in the passing game and this spot sets up for him to be my favorite Patriots back. He might even be one of the better cheap backs on the entire slate if projected game script goes right. One player I won’t be looking at is Damien Harris. Not only does he not catch passes with a 2% target share, Sony Michel is likely to be active this week. Harris and Michel occupy he same style of role for New England, and I don’t want to play a back with no pass catching upside at almost $6,000.

WR – I talked myself into Jakobi Meyers last week with his salary and the fact he was getting roughly 40% of the targets since he came back in Week 7. Of course in true Patriots fashion it was Damiere Byrd who went bonkers for just about 30 DK points. Even after the dud, Meyers still has a 29.8% target share and nearly 50% of the air yard share in this offense. As we were sharply reminded of last week, there is some significant volatility to this passing game. Byrd should face a healthy bit of Patrick Peterson. Byrd has the ability to get behind him as P2 was getting roasted all night against Seattle. However, to say there’s a difference between D.K. Metcalf and Byrd is the understatement of the year. Meyers should face Byron Murphy who has been solid this year with a 1.40 pPT. I don’t love either player this week.

TE – Ryan Izzo is under a 7% target share on the with 12 receptions and has one RZ target.

D/ST – They’re playing the seventh-best scoring offense and have no real means to contain Kyler. Even at the bargain price and the fact they’ve gotten their pressure rate up to 26.5%, I can’t see reasons to playing them this week. That would change if Kyler isn’t all that healthy.

Cash – White

GPP – Meyers, Byrd, Cam

Browns at Jaguars, O/U of 49 (Browns -6)

Browns – Pace is 24th

QB – The Browns may finally get a game that doesn’t involve weather, but that doesn’t mean I’m looking to play Baker Mayfield in any real capacity. He’s almost fantasy irrelevant and sure looks like he’s overrated with each passing week. The pDB is under league average at 0.45 and the points per game is 28th. Sure, some of that has been out of his hands these past few weeks but the production hasn’t been there outside of one anomaly game all year. He’s thrown 15 touchdowns and five came in one game. That means he’s barely averaging one touchdown per game otherwise.

Even when he had a four week stretch where he threw two touchdowns in every game, he never topped 17.5 DK points. The matchup is glorious. Jacksonville is 31st in DVOA against the pass, allow the fourth-most yards and 21 touchdown passes so far. However, the projected game script is likely very run heavy and the floor for Baker is palpable.

RB – How some folks treat Nick Chubb this week is an interesting Rorschach test, if you will. There’s a circle of analysts who dislike playing a back like Derrick Henry due to lack of pass catching and general floor outcomes in cash. Well, Chubb is about a $500 cheaper version of Henry. If anyone thinks Henry is a poor cash play, Chubb isn’t much better.

He’s played six games so far (five full games) and has four targets. FOUR. In the two weeks he’s come back, Chubb only has two RZ attempts to nine for Kareem Hunt. Even if some of that is a little bit of bad luck, that’s eye-opening. On the season as a whole, it’s 32-12 for Hunt. If that trend continues, Chubb appears to be cheap but is actually quite expensive. Assuming he gets zeroed in the pass game, he needs roughly 120-ish yards with the three point bonus and one touchdown to hit 3x. That’s a lot, even if the 21st ranked DVOA runs defense doesn’t seem daunting.

It’s going to be tempting to not just plug in Hunt if you want exposure. We should expect Cleveland to control this game, which means a lot of run plays. In the past two weeks with Chubb back, Hunt still has 32 attempts and four receptions. The touches are near equal, and Hunt has the aforementioned RZ work going for him. Hunt’s price dropped dramatically and I may actually prefer him to get exposure to this backfield. I also think Hunt is the better cash play at salary.

WR – With the ceiling so low for Mayfield this year, it’s not easy to love the receiving options. I will say that even though the results have been putrid, I can’t come away from he 29.0% target share for Jarvis Landry since Odell Beckham tore his ACL. Now that they actually have weather that can not kill the passing game, Landry could be stealthy on DK. What is a little surprising is the 45.9% slot rate. That’s not as high as we’ve come to know with Landry but that doesn’t hurt him either. He’s barely over $5,000 and that target share typically isn’t so cheap. The matchup with Tre Herndon isn’t an issue since he’s allowing a 118.2 passer rating.

Rashard Higgins has been the deep threat in this time frame with a 15.7 aDOT and unsurprisingly, it’s been a bit of a struggle. He has 7/127 in three games which doesn’t look like much but the matchup is why you possibly chase. Sidney Jones is the Jags best corner with a 54.5% catch rate allowed but he’s also only played six games. There’s a super low floor if the Browns run 40 times here.

TE – Is it maybe Austin Hooper week….again? I know, I’ve said it for about three weeks running but remember – this is mostly written on Tuesday. We’ve had reasons to bail on the Cleveland game for the last three weeks. Hooper has an 18.9% target share in his two games back and the Jaguars are tied for the lead in touchdowns given up to tight ends this year at eight. They rank seventh in yards given up and every team that has given up more yards have also given up more receptions. Landry, Hunt and Hooper are the only players with RZ targets in the past three weeks and I like Hooper to have a shot to score here.

D/ST – I need to know who’s starting at quarterback here. If it’s Gardner Minshew, I’ll pass because the Browns are still without stud lineman Myles Garrett. You can make a fairly strong case that the Jags with Minshew are a better offense than Philly and Carson Wentz. There, I said it.

*Update* It is not Minshew…..

Cash – Landry, Hunt, Hooper

GPP – Chubb, Higgins, Baker

Jaguars – Pace is 6th

QB – Please, please let Minshew get back for this game. His pDB is not great at just 23rd, but he was 14th in points per game at the time of injury and he has 13 touchdowns in just seven games. Jacksonville was top 10 in pass attempts with him active and the matchup is juicy. Cleveland is 15th in DVOA against the pass but their pass rush is blunted right now. Additionally, they are 21st in passing yards allowed and are tied for fourth in touchdowns given up. Jake Luton has looked like a sixth-round rookie outside of one massive play to kick off his career. Yes, the Steelers are one of the best defenses in football but a 2:6 TD:INT ratio is tough to stomach, even at $5,200. If it’s Minshew, I’m very interested. If it’s Luton, I’d rather play Baker.

*Update* Mike Glennon will be starting Sunday and I have absolutely no interest. He’s played 29 games in his career and while the 36:20 TD:INT ratio isn’t bad, he averages under 200 yards per game. He hasn’t seen any real game action since 2017 and there’s an incredibly low floor for Glennon here.

RB – I don’t appear to be giving James Robinson enough credit lately. This dude touches the ball all the time no matter what. In the last four weeks, he has 95 total touches and has churned out a least 11.4 DK points. That might not sound great for results, but the Steelers game drags it down some. If you can pencil him in for at least ~18 touches, he has to be considered at this salary, even if it’s just for GPP. No running back has a higher percentage of the position’s carries on his team, 96.1%. Cleveland is once again dead average in DVOA against the run at 15, but they are eighth in rush yards allowed per game. It’s not a sparkling matchup but the floor seems pretty safe for Robinson.

WR – To make matters tougher for Glennon, his entire receiving corps is questionable right now. D.J. Chark hasn’t practiced this week, an ominous sign. Laviska Shenault was limited, but that’s all he’s been able to manage after missing two straight games. Even Chris Conley was limited. Look, none of these players are going to be the highest priority. We need some clarity before figuring out matchups so look for an update as we go.

*Update* We have a lot to cover here. Firstly, Chark and Conley are both out. That’s a 20.9% target share and a 12.9% target share, not to mention a combined 13 RZ targets and 10 EZ targets. Not only that, but the Browns are down their best corner, Denzel Ward. Both Shenault and Keelan Cole will step into much bigger roles this week. I will prefer Shenault with an aDOT of just 5.6 to Cole’s 10.4 and I would expect Shenaul to get a rushing attempt or two. Glennon is scary for a ceiling game for either player but they are perfectly fine punts. Cole has been much more in the slot this year but I don’t think that holds up with the limited bodies they have.

TE – Regardless of quarterback, I’m completely uninterested here. Tyler Eifert is going to catch a random touchdown here and there but that’s not something we should chase. His target share is barely 11% and he has seven RZ looks. With just 19 receptions, the floor is scary low.

D/ST – They’re dead last in sacks, have only 10 takeaways and can’t really stop the run. Hard pass.

Cash – Shenault

GPP – Robinson, Cole

Dolphins at Jets, O/U of 44 (Dolphins -7)

Dolphins – Pace is 30th

QB – Coach Brian Flores is playing a dangerous game of quarterback roulette right now, in my eyes. He took Ryan Fitzpatrick out of the starter role despite Fitz playing mostly well. Eight interceptions isn’t great, but the Dolphins were 3-1 and fighting for the AFC East when he made the move. Tua Tagovailoa started that past four games but got yanked in Denver in the fourth. Flores said it was performance-based, but Tua would still start.

I will stress that Tua is not a cash game play with one cheaper than his $5,900 BUT he could be an elite pivot in GPP. This is the Jets defense that is atrocious at every level. They are dead last in DVOA against the pass, third-worst in yards per game and have surrendered 19 touchdown passes. If Tua can’t get it done here, we should be worried about his fantasy production for the rest of the way. He’s only at a 0.41 pDB so there is a floor to be had. It’s just hard not to bet against the Jets right now.

RB – This is a pretty cut and dry position for the Dolphins. I worried that the return of Matt Breida last week might muddy the waters. After all, Salvon Ahmed is an undrafted rookie the Dolphins picked up from the 49ers. Breida might get the benefit of the doubt. That didn’t happen at all, as Ahmed played over 65% of the snaps and racked up 17 touches. Breida had two for the game, so Ahmed is still very much a cash play here. The pricing hasn’t exactly got up to the workload yet. Having said that, the Jets actually rank ninth in DVOA against the run but they’ve given up non total scored and the second-most receptions in the league. Ahmed got involved in the passing game this past week with six targets. If that sticks around, he should be able to approach 3x at this salary.

*Update* Maybe this isn’t cut and dry. Ahmed has now missed practice both days this week. Myles Gaskin is working, but still in a non-contact jersey. Ahmed is now out, so this backfield could be down to Breida and Patrick Laird. Let’s just hope Gaskin is back for Sunday.

WR – Since Tua has been the starter, DeVante Parker leads the team in target share. It’s only 22.9% which is a little lower than I’m in love with but he’s also not over $6,000. With the Jets secondary that is just getting pummeled by any receiver imaginable, Parker is going to be difficult to turn away from. It appears that the chemistry could be growing a bit with seven, seven and nine targets in the last three games which brings him up to a 26.4% target share. The air yards are encouraging at 26.2% and he leads in RZ and EZ targets at five each. Blessuan Austin isn’t going to hamper Parker with his 12.4 YPR and 97.3 passer rating allowed. Parker may well wind up in the Core before it’s all said and done.

Knowing how bad the Jets are, Jakeem Grant is in the conversation again but it needs to be understood as to where the floor is. He’s gotten five, five and six targets the past three games but has only broken double-digits once because he scored. It’s a thin play that’s there solely because of matchup. Grant has at least seen five targets in three straight games and that’s about all that’s needed against the Jets.

TE – Mike Gesicki always seems just too expensive to really get excited about. The good news is he’s running routes on 85.6% of his snaps, but he’s also under 62% for his snaps rate not the season. Gesicki has been third in the pecking order with Tua under center but Parker has been hoarding the RZ and EZ work, leaving just one of each target for Gesicki. He’s always fine, but I can’t get excited past the matchup. New York has allowed seven scores to the position, so maybe in a GPP I’ll throw in Gesicki and hope he finds the paint. Really, who can’t against New York?

D/ST – I don’t always like to go after the most expensive option on the board but you can’t argue the flow chart of good defenses against the Jets. Miami has forced the third-most takeaways this year and matched it with 22 sacks. The Jets actually only have 11 giveaways but they are the lowest scoring offense in football by almost five full points. There’s nothing wrong with playing the Dolphins here.

Cash – Parker, TBD in the backfield

GPP – Grant, Tua, Gesicki, D/ST

Jets – Pace is 9th

QB – Sam Darnold looks like he’ll be back under center and this would be about the lowest I would consider going for quarterback. Even then, it’s particularly gross. No, I take it back. I can’t play Darnold. The Jets offense is singularly bad this season. The 0.30 pDB is 34th and honestly, I just can’t wait to see him on a new team this time in 2021. Miami is 11th in DVOA against the pass and has only allowed 13 touchdown passes all season.

RB – With the news that rookie La’Mical Perine having a high ankle sprain, someone might want to try and take me into Frank Gore ….and I guess I could listen. I don’t love this play and want to be crystal clear about that. I much prefer James White. It has to be pointed out that Miami is 29th in DVOA against the run, ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed per game and they’ve given up over 1,400 scrimmage yards with nine touchdowns. If this was any other back, we’d be interested at this price. We know FOR SURE that Adam Gase loves Gore and his 3 yards, cloud of dust skill set. The matchup is there and the workload is likely there as well, if the Jets can stay competitive. Don’t shoot the messenger here!

WR – Jamison Crowder has been a ghost since coming back from injury and I can’t help but wonder if that’s quarterback related. Flacco has been at the helm for both games and he’s focused on Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims. Crowder has seen five targets while Mims has seen 16 and Perriman has seen 11. Perriman has scored three times in these two games but the Dolphins matchup is soft on the inside and difficult on the outside.

Byron Jones and Xavien Howard wait on the boundary while Nik Needham is in the slot. Crowder should have a field day there as Needham has allowed a 60% catch rate. Before the injury (with Darnold), Crowder had a 31.5% target share. I’d love for that to come back this week. I’m out on Mims and Perriman this week, as those corners are going to get the best of them for most of the game.

TE – I’m just pretending that Chris Herndon didn’t score last week. He’s been totally uninvolved all year and we don’t chase fluky touchdowns.

D/ST – Honestly, Tua hasn’t been so good that I couldn’t understand a punt of the Jets defense. They have negative points in their outcomes but they do have 11 turnovers forced. That’s about the best I can say for them because the unit is not talented.

Cash – Crowder

GPP – Gore, D/ST

Raiders at Falcons, O/U of 54 (Raiders -3)

Raiders – Pace is 29th

QB – I’ve made a couple references to the quarterback that I liked especially in cash so far it’s Derek Carr. He’s playing lights out right now and has been through most of the year. The completion rate is almost 70%, he’s 10th in completion rate under pressure and seventh with a clean pocket. There have been a few bumps in the road but he’s in full control of this offense and the Falcons are one of the biggest pass funnels in the league. They are 26th in DVOA against the pass and only the Seahawks give up more yards per game. Only the Cowboys have given up more touchdown passes and Atlanta sits at 22 for the season. Carr is seventh in RZ attempts and 11th in touchdowns despite being only 18th in attempts. He’s far too cheap for the upside and he’s almost surely my cash game option.

RB – This is not an exaggeration, I almost spit out my water when I clicked on Josh Jacobs. $7,200 is an eye-popping price for a back that has seven of 10 games fallen short of the 21 DK required for 3x. I’m…I’m honestly not sure how he’s this expensive. There’s certainly nothing inherently wrong with Jacobs. The Raiders are favorites, he’s third in carries in the NFL and he’s involved in the passing game with a 10.3% target share. However, Atlanta is good against the run. They’re only ninth in rush yards allowed per game and they have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to just running backs. Where they can be had is in the passing game, but that’s not the calling card for Jacobs. He could have 100 yards and score and still fall short of 3x. Too many things have to go right for Jacobs and I’m more fading the salary than the player.

WR – Nelson Agholor is very likely to gain a lot of traction in this spot and he could be the “Jakobi Meyers” of last week. I mean that he could be very popular in cash game settings since he’s under $5,000 and coming off a big game against the Chiefs. The target rate isn’t crazy high at 15.1% but he does lead in air yards at 26.7% and is tied with Darren Waller in EZ targets. The 14.5 aDOT can lead to some volatility but this is a good spot to trust him as much as you can. The salary is too low and rookie corner A.J. Terrell has allowed a 75.5% catch rate and a 2.30 pPT on 53 targets.

One of the biggest failures of the Raiders offense so far has been not having any real role for Henry Ruggs. He’s barely over an 11% target share and has been far more bust than boom so far this season. Right now, he’s just a player that can run fast. It only takes one play but his floor is zero. He’s only in consideration with 20 or more lineups. The emergence of Agholor has seemingly helped cap Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow, especially with Waller as the alpha.

TE – I’m not sure if I’ll have the luxury to spend on him yet, but Waller would be my preferred tight end in cash to go with Carr. Part of the Falcons being a pass funnel is they are the worst team to tight ends. They’re tied for the most touchdowns allowed, second-most yards and the third-most receptions. It legitimately could not line up better for Waller. Setting aside Travis Kelce who is the TE1+++, Waller is the only other tight end with at least 60 receptions, at least 500 yards and he owns a 27.7% target share. Play Waller in any format you like and he will undoubtedly be a piece of a Raiders stack for me this week.

D/ST – Vegas only has 11 sacks on the season, a 21.4% pressure rate and 11 turnovers. The Falcons got rocked by the Saints defense this past week but the talent level is quite different between these two. I’m not particularly interested here.

Cash – Carr, Waller, Agholor

GPP – Jacobs, Ruggs

Falcons – Pace is 8th

QB – For as much as I like Carr, I’m going to be tempted to go right back to Matt Ryan. There’s no denying he was terrible on Sunday and he’s showing signs of not being what he used to be. However, Ryan is 21st in completion rate under pressure at 39.7%. When he’s kept clean, that goes up to 77.5% and Vegas is not getting home to the quarterback. Ryan’s 0.42 pDB is a concern as is his 15.3 points per game. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have ceiling games in him with a 23, 27, 28 and 32 DK point efforts this year. The Raiders are 18th in DVOA and 28th in passing yards allowed per game. One of the only things somewhat saving them at this point is the 16:8 TD:INT ratio allowed. This game could turn into a track meet the attention is likely to be on Carr and his passing game. That and the combo of a bad taste in folks mouth from last week could turn Ryan into a gem this week with not many on him.

RB – We’ve had to be pretty picky with the spots to use Todd Gurley but this one does check most of the boxes. For starters, the Raiders have a tough time defending the run. They are 32nd in DVOA against the run and have given up 12 rushing touchdowns. The yardage given up to backs looks strong at just 906 through 10 games, but they’ve also faced the seventh-fewest attempts in the league. If teams stick with it, they’ve not shown a ton of resistance. I do wish Gurley had more of a passing floor since Vegas is bottom 10 in receptions and receiving yards to backs, but there’s reasons that Gurley is so cheap. You’re not playing him for his 6.4% target share, you’re after his 42 RZ attempts which is second in the league behind Derrick Henry. I can’t quite get there in cash but Gurley checks in as a GPP option.

*Update* Gurley is a bit of a surprise inactive and enter Brian Hill? He has two games with 10 or more touches this season. One has turned into 15 DK and one has turned into 8.4. With him being minimum for the position and in a shootout-style game, it’s hard to not plug him in and go. He actually has 20 targets on the season, four fewer than Gurley. With a bit of passing game chops to go with his resume this year, I’m in.

WR – The situation here is a little hard to read. Julio Jones injured his hamstring again last week and only played 35% of the snaps. He didn’t look like a player that would suit up this week. He’s being called limited in practice, as is Calvin Ridley. Right now, I’d guess Julio is out but Ridley is in and Ridley becomes fascinating. He gets Trayvon Mullen who has given up three touchdowns, a 100.3 passer rating and a 63% catch rate. Ridley also has 37.2% of the air yards share and a 31.6% red zone share even with Julio. That rises without him.

Russell Gage has to enter into the conversation here as well. He jumped to about 80% of the snaps last week after weeks of being around 55%. Ryan also fed him 12 targets and at $4,800 he could be a staple of cash lineups. Raiders corner Nevin Lawson isn’t anything to worry about either with a 106.3 passer rating allowed. Really, if Julio is out it seems far-fetched that Gage wouldn’t see at least 5-6 targets. He’s at a healthy 16.7% target share as it is.

TE – You would have thought that Julio being in and out on Sunday would have led to a Hayden Hurst game, but you’d be wrong. He went for the goose on Sunday on just two targets. Hurst is only fourth in targets on the team and fourth in RZ looks, which is an issue. Outside of Travis Kelce, the Raiders have been good to tight ends. This is a crazy stat – Vegas has given up 47 receptions, 523 yards and four touchdowns. Kelce in two games has 22/235/2. He’s responsible for borderline half the eight end scoring against Vegas! That doesn’t leave me too excited for Hurst, Julio or not.

D/ST – The Raiders only have 10 giveaways and Carr has only been sacked 14 times. Vegas and their O-Line have only given up a 16.4% pressure rate, seventh-best in football. There’s not a lot to hang on to here since the Falcons only have 17 sacks themselves. They can’t really generate a pass rush and are likely to get carved up.

Cash – Ridley, Gage if Julio is out

GPP – Ryan, Gurley, Hurst

Giants at Bengals, O/U of 44 (Giants -6)

Giants – Pace is 18th

QB – Through this season, Daniel Jones has been a pretty easy pass for me. He’s played all 10 games and six of them he’s failed to reach 15 DK points. Two of those games he’s not even hit 10, which is beyond crippling from a quarterback. Danny Dimes sits 30th in pDB at 0.35, 26th in points per game, 27th in touchdown passes, 21st in yards and this is all despite being third in RZ attempts. Yikes. The matchup is phenomenal with the Bengals ranking 28th in DVOA against the pass and 23rd in yards allowed per contest. This team had their hearts ripped out last week too with the loss of Joe Burrow. Maybe you can construct a narrative that makes you want to play Danny Dimes, but there’s enough options under $6,000 that he won’t be in play for me.

RB – We mentioned Salvon Ahmed as a nice cash option and I think Wayne Gallman falls into that same exact category. Since Devonta Freeman was hurt in Week 7, Gallman has been the man in this backfield. He’s handled 54 attempts and been targeted 10 times with eight receptions. I do kind of wish the target share was bigger than the 7.7% he’s sporting, but he is so cheap for what’s likely to be 15 touches or more. Both of these teams are not good, so I’d be surprised if it’s not competitive.

Of the 12 RZ attempts since Week 7, Gallman has nine of them and he’s scored in every game. Cincy is 23rd in DVOA against the run but they’ve given up the fourth-most rushing yards to backs. They’ve been lucky to only allow six rushing scores so far and Gallman need only a score, 60 rushing yards and a couple receptions to hit 3x. His low-water mark was 13.2 DK against the Bucs, one of the better run defenses in football.

WR – Sterling Shepard came back to the lineup in Week 7 as well and since that point, he and Evan Engram are identical with 32 targets and 208 air yards each to lead the team. Shepard leads in receptions and yards, all while playing only 31.4% of his snaps in the slot. Shepard will Riley line up against LeShaun Sims who has gotten smacked for a 2.30 pPT on 46 targets. He’s also allowed four touchdowns and Shepard’s price is attractive. Since retuning, he’s hit at least 10.7 DK in all four games and has had some tougher matchups in there against Tampa and Washington.

Darius Slayton is still the wild card in this offense. Since Shepard returned, he’s had three, nine, one and seven targets in those four games. When he’s gotten targeted, he’s broken 10 DK points. When he hasn’t…well, that speaks for itself. Slayton should snag the tougher matchup against William Jackson but this isn’t a shutdown corner either. Jackson has still allowed a 14.8 YPR and a 92.1 passer rating on 55 targets. Golden Tate is still an avoid for me as the fourth option in a flawed passing game.

TE – The price and matchup seem attractive for Engram, not to mention the metrics we talked about. He just can’t seem to put it together though with another dud the last time we saw him. Engram is not even a top 15 option at the position on the year but is priced as the TE4 on the slate. Figure that one out. The Bengals is a good spot for Engram as they’ve given up the fourth-most DK per game, six scores and almost 600 yards. There’s just little reason to have faith in Engram and he’s not a cash play.

D/ST – I was hoping they would be a bit lower-priced, but DK did a nice job here. With the loss of Burrow, the Bengals offense becomes a prime target every week. They’ve allowed the third-most sacks and their quarterback play just fell off a cliff. On the year, New York has generated 25 sacks and 15 turnovers. The DVOA doesn’t look strong at 28, but they can make splash plays, have a backup caliber quarterback on the other side and can be afforded in just about any build.

Cash – Gallman, Shepard, D/ST

GPP – Slayton, Engram

Bengals – Pace is 13th

QB – We saw three games from Ryan Finley last season and what we got was not pretty at all. His completion rate was 47.1%, he didn’t pass for 475 yards total and he had a 2:2 TD:INT ratio. I wouldn’t get too fooled by his lone rush attempt on Sunday because he had four last season. The Giants have only given up 15 touchdown passes and even with some better weapons this year (namely Tee Higgins), this is just a super easy pass for me. There’s not any need to get cute to this extent.

The Bengals announced that Brandon Allen will be starting this week, elevated off the practice squad. Just like Finley, he’s a quick pass. His NFL sample size is only three games as well, but he has a completion rate under 48%, a 3:2 TD:INT ratio and averaged under 175 yards per contest. The Giants aren’t the worst defense and we can just play Carr or Tua in amazing spots.

RB – When you have a potential non-functioning quarterback, the running backs could suffer. That’s the case for Gio Bernard even though Joe Mixon is now on the IR. It’s a really solid matchup since New York has given up almost 1,400 scrimmage yards, 10 touchdowns and are tied for the fifth-most receptions. You just can’t help but worry Bernard faces the teeth of this defense the entire day. Seeing as how he’s almost $6,000, this is another player I’m just not really looking at. It could be a long day for the Bengals.

WR – DK is trying to tempt me with Higgins and Tyler Boyd. The former went dropped $800 in salary and while the results were tough last week, he still saw 10 targets. Boyd saw 11 and is very likely to be the safety blanket for Allen. It’s debatable if that matters but Boyd runs in the slot just under 77% of the time. That leaves him on Darnay Holmes who has gotten smacked in limited action. His snap rate is under 50% but if he’s called upon to face Boyd he’s allowing a 73.7% catch rate. Boyd has an aDOT of 8.3 so Finley could hone in on him pretty easily.

Higgins is just six targets behind A.J. Green from taking over second on the team and has more RZ targets. Higgins also draws James Bradberry which is a big issue here. The Giants corner has only allowed a 77.5 passer rating on 69 targets this season. Both receivers are both risky with super low floors with Allen under center but I do prefer Boyd at the salaries.

TE – With the Bengals offensive line issues, Drew Sample has fallen down to running a route on just 68% of the snaps. That’s down to 20th in the NFL and unless something changes with Finely, he hasn’t been involved at all. I tend to doubt he’s suddenly a big part of the plan for the Bengals.

D/ST – You can play the “Daniel Jones turns it over” card because he has 13 in 10 games. The Bengals only have 10 takeaways on the season and 13 sacks, in part because they dealt Carlos Dunlap to Seattle. I don’t want to play a defense that doesn’t have splash play ability.

Cash – None

GPP – Boyd, Bernard, Higgins

Chargers at Bills, O/U of 53 (Bills -5)

Chargers – Pace is 11th

QB – This game should be one of the better ones on the entire slate and I’m looking forward to it. Justin Herbert got over his stumble against the Dolphins pretty fast, going for 30 DK this past week. Herbert has thrown 22 touchdowns already and that’s sixth in the league. The scary part is he’s played in one fewer game than anyone else above him. In his first two starts, Herbert only threw two combined touchdowns. Since then, he’s thrown for at least two every time out and is averaging right at 300 yards per contest. Only Patrick Mahomes is higher by about five yards. He’s at a season-high salary but he absolutely should be. Buffalo is not nearly the defense they were last year, ranked 14th in DVOA against the pass and 17th in yards allowed per game. Herbert really hasn’t let you down yet.

RB – If Austin Ekeler is back this week with no restrictions, it’s all systems go. Buffalo is 26ht in DVOA against the run and they’ve given up over 1,400 scrimmage yards to the backs. A dude like Kalen Ballage has seen 18 targets in three games with the Chargers. Ekeler is vastly underpriced for the game environment if he’s healthy and there’s not much else to say about this one. He’s part of an excellent offense that loves to target the backs with inferior options. We just have to make sure we know what we’re looking at.

WR – It’s about time Keenan Allen got priced up. He’s been a terror with Herbert under center and these two have been unstoppable for the most part. He’s had a 30.1% target share and that’s behind only Davante Adams in the league. Allen is in the slot still a little under half the time and that leaves him on Taron Johnson a good bit. Johnson has allowed a 101.3 passer rating and a 1.70 pPT so far this year on 60 targets. He’s still the primary stacking option with Herbert and there’s little reason to think Buffalo stops him in this contest.

Mike Williams will see the majority of Tre White and that would have sent me running the other way in 2019. Now White is a shadow of himself and not the good kind of corner shadow. He’s been targeted 40 times and is allowing a 72.5% catch rate, 131.6 passer rating and a 2.70 pPT. Those are sky high numbers and Williams has a good four inches and 20 pounds on White. I will not argue in the least if you double up Herbert with Allen and Williams in this spot.

TE – Even with all of Herbert’s success, Hunter Henry hasn’t exactly come along for the ride. As Herbert has gotten comfortable, Henry has mostly turned into a touchdown or bust option. The first two games Henry had at least five receptions. After that points, he’s not been over four and the 48 yards from this past week was the highest yardage since Week 3. Herbert has broken the mold as far as rookie quarterbacks and the only time Henry has scored more than 10 DK points has been when he scored. However, Buffalo is one of the better matchups on the board. They’ve allowed the most yards, most receptions and six scores on the year. If stacking Herbert, I’d rotate Williams and Henry as the second option after Allen.

D/ST – The Chargers defense has been rougher this year with over 27 points allowed, just nine turnovers and only 17 sacks. With a game that is projected to be very high-scoring, I’m not sure they have the ability to cash in on the added opportunities these games can give out.

Cash – Herbert, Allen

GPP – Williams, Henry

Bills – Pace is 22nd

QB – The Chargers are mid-pack in DVOA against the pass and that doesn’t make me worry about Josh Allen here. He finished strong right before the bye week with 39 and 29 DK point games, combining for six touchdowns. Allen is sixth in pDB at 0.55 and fantasy points per game, seventh in yards, fourth in air yards and eighth in passing touchdowns. Allen has been given the keys to the offense as well, sitting eighth in attempts on the season. LA is fourth in touchdowns allowed and Allen leads in rushing attempts inside the red zone and rushing touchdowns. He’s another player that can be used in any format. I tend to lean Herbert and save $400 but this is a very tough call.

RB – Zack Moss has surpassed Devin Singletary in salary and workload the last two games. Moss has 16 rushing attempts and three receptions to just six attempts and four receptions for Singletary. There’s not a ton of touchdown upside with Allen ready to poach any work near the paint. Moss has the lead there as well at a whopping 2-1 ratio. The Chargers are 27th in DVOA against the run and have given up over 1,300 scrimmage yards with 10 touchdowns. Even though the prices are bargains, I can’t bring myself to like either player. If you go this route, it almost has to be Moss.

WR – This matchup is set to be a blast since Stefon Diggs should face a good bit of Casey Hayward. The Chargers corner is typically an avoid for me, but Diggs is a different type of player. Hayward has been targeted 66 times but has allowed a league-best 45.5% catch rate. Now, he has also allowed a 1.80 pPT and a massive 18.6 YPR. Diggs has a 28.6% target share and a huge 36.1% of the air yards share. Allen will have no fear about Hayward and neither do I in this spot.

The decision between Cole Beasley and John Brown might be out of our hands. Brown didn’t practice once again on Thursday, casting serious doubt about playing on Sunday. If that’s the case, Beasley and his 18.8% target share look pretty appealing in a stack. Tevaughn Campbell guards the slot for the Chargers now and in only 18 targets, he’s allowed a 66.7% catch rate. Beasley as the clear-cut number two is at a solid price for his potential upside here.

*Update* Hayward is out for the Chargers and Brown is out for the Bills. To steal a Stix phrase, this is a wheels up scenario for Diggs and Beasley is a great value in my eyes. You could take a GPP shot at Gabriel Davis as well. In Week 5, Davis saw nine targets and Week 7 he saw three. It’s a wild card play but if he gets more than five, he could turn into an incredible value.

TE – There’s not a tight end that is worth considering on this team. Nobody is over a 6.2% target share and the top two options have a combined eight RZ targets.

D/ST – The Bills sort of fit the prototype of a defense in a shootout that could get a couple turnovers and sacks, but it’s not the route I’m looking at. They’re only 17th in overall DVOA and Herbert has only thrown six picks through nine games.

Cash – Allen, Diggs, possibly Beasley

GPP – Moss

Panthers at Vikings, O/U of 51.5 (Vikings -3.5)

Panthers – Pace is 31st

QB – The fact that Teddy Bridgewater was close enough to almost be the emergency option last week leaves me feeling good about his chances of playing this week. That’s awesome because this is a great spot. Even Any Dalton put up 22 DK on this Vikings defense and Teddy could do the same. Teddy B is 17th in attempts even missing a game and 14th in yards. Nothing exactly pops out with the 0.47 pDB and 13 touchdowns, but the Vikings erase a lot of issues. I will say I wish Bridgewater was cheaper, needing about 20 DK to hit 3x. Minnesota might be 12th in DVOA against the pass but the 22 touchdowns allowed erases any good facets. Teddy Two Gloves has talent around him and this is the type of spot we should be targeting him.

RB – Only 10 teams have given up over 1,000 rushing yards to running backs and Minnesota is one of them. Christian McCaffrey is already doubtful for the week which means it’s the Mike Davis show again. He put up just under 16 DK last week with only two receptions. That is kind of a concern as he’s not had more than five receptions since Week 5. His price is a bit high and I don’t believe I would go there in cash. Week 5 was also the last time Davis has hit 3x at this current price. The ceiling has gotten sketchy so even in a good spot, Davis has a wide range of outcomes.

*Update* CMC is questionable but not expected to play

WR – One of the reasons the receptions have dried up for Davis is the 22% target share for Curtis Samuel compared to 12.4% for Davis. Samuel is still priced as the WR3 in Carolina but since Week 7, Samuel has 74.2 PPR points compared to 56.2 for Robby Anderson and 75.9 for D.J. Moore. The latter two are close in price but Samuel really stands out as a value. Aside from a dud against Tampa (excusable against a good defense) Samuel has scored at least 17 DK points in every game.

He’s run 53% of his routes from the slot and Jeff Gladney has been awful. He’s allowed a 108.5 passer rating and a 14.5 YPR. Anderson should get Kris Boyd and he’s allowed a 1.80 pPT while Moore should square up with Cameron Dantzler who returned Sunday. Dantzler has been the worst of the bunch with a 138.4 passer rating and a 73.8% catch rate this year. Samuel is the best value of the pass catchers and Moore should be worth the extra money from Anderson, especially if the field hasn’t caught up with the changes in the passing game.

TE – The Panthers do not utilize the tight end at all since Ian Thomas is under a 5% target share.

D/ST – I did seriously underestimate this unit against a short-handed Lions offense last week, but I’m filing that under fluky results. They won’t shut anyone out again and five of their total 16 sacks came last week. Again, fluky.

Cash – Samuel, Moore, Bridgewater

GPP – Davis, Anderson

Vikings – Pace is 25th

QB – Kirk Cousins isn’t playing bad lately, considering he only has two turnovers in the last four games. In two of those games, he’s been over 20 DK points but he’s needed to throw there touchdowns to do so. Cousins sits fifth in pDB at 0.55 which still makes me double-take every single week. Being 23rd in attempts really hurts he predictability of his production. If you catch him on a game where he throws around 35 times, you’re likely to be happy. If he’s in that 20-25 attempt range, you have issues. This week he could be down Adam Thielen so I’m likely to avoid Cousins if that’s the case. I’d bet the Vikings try to run the ball down the throats of Carolina and get out of dodge. The Panthers are 21st in DVOA but have only allowed 16 touchdowns so far. The range of outcomes is wide but he makes some sense in GPP.

RB – The only question with Dalvin Cook is if I can afford him. Cook is only off the rushing title by 10 yards and he’s one game behind Derrick Henry. The Panthers have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards and are 22nd in DVOA aghast the run. They are also tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns allowed so this is beyond a smash spot for Cook. There is some cache that he won’t hit 3x at this price. Last year, we paid $10,000 for CMC often but he had a massive receiving floor. Cook has a 13.3% target share and might even get more looks without Thielen. Just remember, he needs to hit about 30 DK for 3x. The floor is immense but the ceiling is not a sure thing at this price.

WR – If Thielen is out, attention is going to shift heavily onto rookie Justin Jefferson. He’s already been wildly productive but it’s a question how he’ll react if he’s the true one. Jefferson likely squares off against Rasul Douglas in this scenario. Douglas has allowed just a 1.50 pPT and a 10.4 YPR. Even in not the best matchup, it would be hard to turn away from Jefferson in cash formats I believe. Thielen has accounted for a 29.1% target share, 41.4% air yards share and has a 51.9% RZ share. That’s an immense amount of the passing game and Jefferson has to get some of that. Thielen may have had just a false positive test, so let’s not get attached to Jefferson yet.

*Update* Thielen is likely out, and Smith is as well most likely. If he Vikings passing game is down both targets, Rudolph and Jefferson should see around 50% of the targets if not more. I wouldn’t be too heavy on Olabisi Johnson with the other value receivers we have in front of us.

TE – Neither Kyle Rudolph or Irv Smith have more than a 10.3% target share so they’re not on the radar much unless Thielen is out. If he is, both players would have higher touchdown equity as they should help fill the RZ void left by Thielen.

D/ST – This unit has been besieged all season and are under 20 sacks on the season and have 12 turnovers. If Bridgewater is starting on the other side, I won’t have any interest. If it would be P.J. Walker….maybe I could get there but even then it’s not the best play.

Cash – Dalvin if we can afford him, Jefferson

GPP – Rudolph

Saints at Broncos, O/U of 43.5 (Saints -6)

Saints – Pace is 27th

QB – I’m ecstatic that DK bumped Taysom Hill’s salary all the way up to $6,200 so he’s not the chalk agains this week. We only have one full game to go by, but Hill played about as well as he could have. He ran 10 times for 50 yards and two scores while completing 18 of his 23 attempts. He had a long touchdown passing nullified and if he keeps running like this, he’s going to still be in play. This is a tougher matchup on the road and against the eighth ranked DVOA against the pass. Hill will need to continue to play well to live up to the price unless he rushes for two scores again. I don’t believe he’s really needed at this salary this week because I’m not convinced he can carry the production as teams get film.

RB – So….that was a terrifying sample for Alvin Kamara. The Saints kept his attempts down like always with just 13. He’s only had one game with more than 14 rushing attempts all year. What makes Kamara the weapon that he is was literally non-existent on Sunday. For the first time in his career, Kamara did not record a reception. He was only targeted one time. He’s tied for 12th in targets across the league, not even just wide receivers and tight ends. Hill not using Kamara in the passing game turns Kamara into just another running back. For one of the first times in memory, Kamara is not a cash play in my eyes and a back with just 12-16 rush attempts would have issues at $5,000. It does need pointed out that Kamara was nursing a toe injury last week but I’m not sure that’s an excuse here. Even Latavius Murray got targeted twice along with his 12 rushing attempts. Let’s hope this was a blip on the radar and leave Kamara for deeper GPP.

WR – One player that didn’t suffer with Hill under center was Michael Thomas, who was targeted 12 times. It was just like the good old days and we haven’t seen a game like this since last season. MT scored more Sunday than his other three games combined. He’s also back to a 27.8% target share and would be incredibly cheap if this can keep up. Thomas has mostly been outside with just a 15.4% slot rate and that means likely a good bit of A.J. Bouye for Denver. He’s not been targeted a ton and has missed some time but the 74.1% catch rate plays right into what Thomas does best. He’s the one Saints player that I’m still pretty happy to play in this game.

The game for Emmanuel Sanders would be looking a lot different if he got to keep the long touchdown but 10.6 DK wasn’t the worst outcome. Six targets isn’t exactly great but Sanders is under $5,000 and does have a tough matchup on paper. Bryce Callahan has a 1.10 pPT which is the second-best among corners. I’m most likely to stick with just Thomas here as we continue to learn how Hill reacts as the starter.

TE – I’m struggling to find much of a reason to go after Jared Cook since he’s under 12% for his target share and now he has to worry about Hill in the red zone. Cook does have a 17.3% share in that area of the field but I think that’s going to drop with Hill. Denver has only allowed two touchdowns on the season so I really feel there’s better options.

D/ST – They are expensive after the past three weeks, where they have scored at least 14 DK in all three. I would normally not chase the production, as they’ve racked up 13 sacks and nine turnovers. On the season, they only have 15 turnovers and 32 sacks so a large percentage has come lately. The catch is the Denver offense has turned the ball over the most in football at 23 times. They’ve matched that with 23 sacks so there’s a lot of opportunity for the Saints here.

Cash – Thomas

GPP – Hill, D/ST, Kamara, Sanders

Broncos – Pace is 3rd

QB – I’m not sure where we are on the “Is Drew Lock any good?” question but I’m not looking to find out this week. I believe we’ve played him once so far this year and were rewarded with a 30 DK point effort. However, the matchup is different and the recent play of the Saints have shot them up to fifth in DVOA against the pass. Lock has had injury issues with himself and has been missing his number one receiver for basically the entire year but he’s sitting at a 0.35 pDB, 30th in the league. Lock hasn’t hit double-digit touchdowns yet despite finishing seven games. Other than a two game spurt against the Chargers and Falcons, Lock has scored under 15 DK in his other five contests. This just doesn’t seem like a wise play, even if they chase points.

RB – I wish I had been a bit more bullish on Melvin Gordon last week. We talked about the matchup being perfect for him but I ended up passing on him for other options. I won’t be able to rectify that play this week because I’ll pass against the Saints. They are second in DVOA against the run and have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to backs. Additionally, they’ve only given up five total touchdowns and under 1,000 scrimmage yards. Gordon is sort of like Todd Gurley where you have to catch him in the right spot. This is decidedly not it in my eyes. The same pretty much goes for Phillip Lindsay. These two split carries evenly last week at 15 for Gordon and 16 for Lindsay, but neither were targeted in the passing game. The floor is quite low for both of them.

WR – I don’t think there’s much of an argument over Jerry Jeudy not being more talented than Tim Patrick, but Jeudy is nursing a foot injury. Patrick continued his streak of productivity this past week with a 19.9 DK showing. He’s right next to Noah Fant for the second-most targets on the team and they’re tied for second in RZ targets. He’s playing almost exclusively on the outside with just 73 snaps in the slot and that puts him mostly on Janoris Jenkins. Statistically, he’s actually been better than Marshon Lattimore. Jenkins is at a 1.60 pPT and a 78.0 passer rating compared to Lattimore’s 2.30 pPT and 125.0 passer rating. The targets have been almost equal as well. If I knew Jeudy was 100%, I’d love to roll him out there. I do prefer Patrick and if you play 20 or more lineups, maybe have a share of Jeudy.

TE – Fant himself continues to tempt me at the price. His production has been very average but there’s been points where the Saints have struggled against the tight end. They’ve given up six scores on the year and Fant has showed upside when healthy. His first two games were fantastic and it seems like ever since then he’s been banged up to some degree. The health of Jeudy seems to be a huge piece of this puzzle. Fant just seems far too cheap right now to not have some exposure in this game where the run game for Denver is not likely to be the answer.

D/ST – I honestly don’t mind the Denver defense as a punt. Sure, the Saints offense is talented but Hill is making his second career start. The Broncos have 28 sacks and are up to the third-highest pressure rate in football. The turnovers aren’t anything major with just 10 but we could see a much different New Orleans offense in this one. At $2,200 they fit into any build you want.

Cash – Patrick

GPP – Fant, Jeudy, D/ST

49ers at Rams, O/U of 45 (Rams -6.5)

49ers – Pace is 26th

QB – I’ll have exactly zero Nick Mullens on this slate. The Rams are seventh in DVOA against the pass and are second in yards allowed per game. While I think Coach Kyle Shanahan is a top-five offensive coach in the league, there’s only so much he can do with this group of players. Mullens is a backup for a reason with a 0.37 pDB and only 11.6 fantasy points per game. Additionally, the Rams sit at an 11:10 TD:INT ratio. This is just too poor of a matchup when a player like Carr is only $500 more.

RB – We’ll need to see what this running back room looks like closer to lock. Raheem Mostert seems to have a shot to come back from his injury as he’s being labeled “day-to-day”. The Rams are tough agains the run as well, sitting 12th in DVOA. They’ve also only given up six total scores but they are over 1,100 scrimmage yards. Mostert has he speed to take any touch to the house and he’s fairly inexpensive as a GPP option.

If he remains out, I’m pretty scared to touch Jerick McKinnon unless he’s the last man standing. Shanahan has been evil with running back rotations this season. Jamycal Hasty is on IR, but it’s possible Jeff Wilson is back as well. If McKinnon, Coleman and Wilson are all active this is not even in consideration for me. We’ll double back here later in the week.

*Update* Coleman is out for Sunday but Mostert will be active and Wilson is likely to be active for the game. With three potential options, we need to tread extremely light here. Mostert is my favorite, but you’re not getting some massive discount on him coming off an injury.

WR – Another position that looks muddy right now, the receivers from the 49ers are up in the air. Brandon Aiyuk is on the Covid list but we’re unsure why. He could just be a close contact and have a good chance to play. Deebo Samuel is fighting back from another leg injury. You’d have to think he needs to be 100% before the 49ers let him back on the field. Jalen Ramsey would likely see most of Aiyuk and that’s not really the best spot for the rookie. Ramsey hasn’t been perfect, but he does have a 1.30 pPT and can kick into the slot. He’s gone there about 19% of the time this year. Kendrick Bourne might be a nice salary saver as he should get more of Troy Hill. Bourne has a target share right under 15% and 20% of the air yards share, while Hill is at a 1.50 pPT. None of these options are anything more than GPP since the Rams defense should be able to control them a good bit.

*Update* Deebo will actually be active, but it looks less likely for Aiyuk. That means Samuel should see mostly Ramsey. I can’t find much of a reason to challenge that scenario with Mullens slinging the ball.

TE – Provided the missed practice on Thursday for Jordan Reed turns out to be nothing, he might be my favorite 49er. He’s the cheapest at a tough to fill position and he bumped up his snaps last game to about 44%. He’s garnered a 14.4% target share in limited playing time and actually has the third-most EZ targets. When we last saw him, Reed got six targets and that could be in the realm here again. If the receivers are struggling, Reed could see something like eight targets in this game. He’s too cheap if he’s healthy for his role.

D/ST – They are really a middling option here. It shouldn’t be a surprise with the injuries but they’ve only generated 18 sacks on the season. The Rams do have 15 turnovers but they’re also much healthier. I’m likely to pass here.

Cash – Reed (if he’s cleared from a non-Covid illness)

GPP – Bourne, Deebo, Mostert

Rams – Pace is 17th

QB – I did not see Jared Goff going bonkers Monday night. He threw the ball 51 times which is an immense amount. It would be foolish to project that again since he’s only gone over 40 attempts twice. The San Francisco defense might be a little better than perception. They’re 17th in DVOA against the pass but have only given up 17 touchdowns. In addition, the 49ers are in the top 10 in yardage allowed so it’s tough to pinpoint where the spot is for Goff to hit them. He’s been fairly average this season at 0.43 pDB which is 19th. He chews up yards with the eighth-most but he’s only 15th in touchdowns and 16th in RZ attempts. The price is nothing horrible but it doesn’t move the needle a ton for me either.

RB – Cam Akers might have scored on Monday but he didn’t do much else. The Rams are still sporting a frustrating three man RBBC. Darrell Henderson had the most snaps and touches on Monday but maxed out at 46% and 10 touches. The 49ers have been excellent against the run, ranking inside the top 10 in yards allowed and DVOA. Once you throw in touches for Malcolm Brown, this backfield is a pain to predict and not really worth the headache. Henderson would take the lead here simply because he has 30 RZ attempts to 15 for Brown and seven for Akers. That’s about the only facet to hold on to.

WR – I’ll admit I totally missed on Cooper Kupp for showdown Monday. His snap rate from the previous week really concerned me at barely 50%. Kupp answered with nearly 80% this past week and is my favorite Rams receiver again. He spends the majority of his time in the slot which should leave him on Jamar Taylor in that formation. Taylor has been pressed into duty and has allowed a 2.70 pPT on 15 targets so far. Kupp leads the team in targets, is second in air yards share and has the most RZ targets as well.

Robert Woods draws the tougher assignment on paper, going against Jason Verrett. The veteran is surging this season with just a 87.5 passer rating allowed and a 1.60 pPT. He’s not lock-down but there’s little doubt Kupp has the easier path. Woods trails in targets by 17 but he does have 19 rush attempts on the year, a nice little bonus. Josh Reynolds has the lead in EZ targets and maybe he’ll get a few looks this week. Kupp and Woods hugged just about everything Monday night. Kupp had a miserable game the first time these two teams met. I hope folks don’t realize that he was a few inches away from having a huge game and had a couple poor drops. I don’t expect that to repeat.

TE – I’ll be honest, I barely even glance at Tyler Higbee anymore. He’s playing 78% of the snaps which is fine but he runs a route on 51.3% of them. That’s 30th among tight ends and he has a just a 10.7% target share. On top of everything else, he has three RZ targets and one EZ target on the season. A player like Reed is cheaper and a player like Hooper is only $100 more.

D/ST – They’re expensive but that’s perfectly fine. They should be as they have 32 sacks on the season which was tied for third-most before Thanksgiving. San Francisco is tied for the fourth-most turnovers on the season so there’s plenty of chances for the Rams to make a difference.

Cash – Kupp, Woods

GPP – Goff, D/ST

Chiefs at Buccaneers, O/U of 56

Chiefs – Pace is 14th (and they have been playing super fast lately)

QB – It’s kind of crazy how a player like Patrick Mahomes can have just an average fantasy game for a while and then bang, he ends with 348 yards and two touchdowns. That red number in the matchup looks daunting, but A. it’s Mahomes and B. Tampa has started to show cracks lately. Over the past three games they have allowed an average of 260 passing yards per game. That number would be 26th on the season. They’re only four touchdowns away from the league lead in that category as well. With a stout run defense, Mahomes can really put it to them through the air. He’s up to third in pDB, fourth in points per game and third in touchdowns. Oh, he leads the league in passing yards as well. He’s a great option in any format and if he comes in under 10% in GPP….well to quote The Fiend, “Yowie wowie!”

RB – This backfield might be a touch messier than it looks. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was barely over 50% of the snaps and since Week 7, CEH has 33 attempts to 23 for Le’Veon Bell. The rookie does have a 14-5 target lead and that’s where the Tampa defense has struggled. They’ve given up the most receptions at 70 for 442 yards. Otherwise, they are the top ranked DVOA and yards per game rushing defense. I’m not really interested in Bell with only about 25% of the snaps and feel CEH might be a bit too pricey for just receiving work.

WR – Since Bell has entered the fray, Tyreek Hill has owned the targets on this team with a 30.2% target share and 42.2% of the air yards. Now, Bell doesn’t have a real effect on Hill but it’s just an easy point to pull from. Even over the course of the season, Hill is right around a 37% air yards share and trails Travis Kelce by four total targets and one RZ target. Here’s the really exciting part. Hill plays almost 40% of his routes from the slot. That gets him to Sean Murphy-Bunting in coverage and this man just got pantsed on Monday night. He’s allowing a 2.40 pPT, 137.1 passer rating and a 13.3 YPR. If you think Andy Reid doesn’t know that, think again.

Sammy Watkins could be on the comeback trail here. He practiced Wednesday, but did suffer a setback last week. His availability dictates how viable Demarcus Robinson is as a punt. We need to check back towards the weekend. Mecole Hardman got lapped in snaps las week by Byron Pringle last week so I don’t believe we can go to Hardman. Pringle himself is on IR but if Watkins is back, Hardman is buried on the depth chart.

*Update* Not that it mattered, but Bucs corner Jamel Dean is out this week. That lessens the chances even more that Hill will be held in check. Watkins is fully healthy and he could be a fantastic GPP option in a Chiefs stack. He still has a 23.1% share of the RZ targets and he’s under $5,000.

TE – I can’t ever tell you to not play Travis Kelce. I do prefer using Hill to stack with Mahomes and you can always pull the double stack if you’d like. That would get you another 24% of the target share, the most targets among tight ends, and the second-most RZ and EZ targets. Kelce is a nightmare to guard and matchup proof. Tampa has also allowed six touchdowns and over 500 yards, so they aren’t shutting down this position.

D/ST – I actually like the Chiefs defense here. The offense may force the Buccaneers to throw plenty and while KC only has 19 sacks, they get pressure at a top 10 rate. We’ve seen a bunch of times this season that Tom Brady does not handle pressure all that well. He’s 29th in completion rate under pressure at 31.2% and is capable of giving up the ball. Similar to what we tried to hit on for Thursday’s slate, more drop backs means more mistake chances. The Chiefs are capable of making those chances count with 15 turnovers forced.

Cash – Mahomes, Hill, Kelce (though none are necessities), D/ST

GPP – CEH, Watkins

Buccaneers – Pace is 10th

QB – Maybe this makes me look foolish, but I’m not excited to play Brady this week. I believe the Chiefs turn this into a shootout (I know, really sticking my neck out there). If that happens, the Chiefs are going to be able to pin their ears back and wreak havoc. KC is 10th in DVOA against the pass and have a 14:10 TD:INT ratio. The completion rate certainly gives me some pause here, not to mention the 15th ranked 0.48 pDB. Just watching the offense the past couple weeks, it seems like there’s maybe too many cooks in the kitchen. They beat up on Carolina but that’s not anything to write home about. The past two decent defenses they’ve faced have punched them square in the mouth. Brady has all the weapons he can ask for and is ninth in touchdowns, but I don’t love him this week all that much.

RB – If the Bucs can stay committed to the ground game, Ronald Jones should have a great week. Leonard Fournette has basically three fewer games but Jones has him in attempts to a 153-66 advantage. Fournette dropped roughly 3,867 passes Monday night (yes I’m still bitter) and Jones is just the superior back at this point. The Chiefs are 30th in DVOA against the run and 26th in rushing yards allowed per game. This is the weak spot in the armor but teams have to keep it close and have the mentality to be patient with it. My fear with Jones is not the matchup. It’s the ego of Brady and Coach Bruce Arians. They will NOT want to be out-done by Mahomes and Reid. If you told me RoJo gets 15+ carries, he smashes. I just don’t trust the Bucs to not put it into Brady’s hands.

WR – Much to my surprise, the arrival of Antonio Brown didn’t have the effect I assumed through three weeks. My thoughts were AB and Chris Godwin would see a ton of targets while Mike Evans would be the third banana. Brown and Evans are actually tied at 26 targets with Godwin at 22. Brady has attempted at least 38 throws in these three games which is actually just about his average. It’s possible to support all three of these guys to some extent on those amount of attempts. Pittsburgh does it, mind you.

AB has been almost totally outside, which should leave him on Charvarius Ward. He’s been a part-time player but they’ll need all hands on deck. In 41 targets, he’s allowed a 106.8 passer rating and a 14.8 YPR. Brown hasn’t wowed yet production-wise but Brady has also missed him multiple times (and he’s dropped one or two). It really feels like a breakout game is coming. Bashaud Breeland is slated to try and handle Evans, and he’s giving up a lot of height and weight. With Brady not shying away, Evans really looks like a solid play as well. Even with AB, he has nine RZ targets and five EZ targets. Godwin is no slouch and I’ll bet Tyrann Mathieu kicks into the slot a good bit. He’s played there on 37.6% of the snaps and has only allowed a 1.40 pPT. I have this trio ranked AB, Evans (toss-up between the two) and then Godwin.

TE – At his price, it’s tough to get excited for Rob Gronkowski. He’s now fourth in line for targets and Evans is taking ALL of the valuable RZ work. He only has one RZ and one EZ target in the last three games and to no shock, has one game over five DK points. It took a touchdown to get him there and I’m not a huge fan of playing a touchdown or bust tight end at this price. We could play Fant, Gesicki or Engram with better odds at success.

D/ST – With the way they’ve been playing lately and Mahomes on the other side? No thank you.

Cash – AB, Evans

GPP – Godwin, RoJo, Brady

Core Four

Brian Hill, Dalvin Cook, Nyheim Hines, Stefon Diggs

I’m glad I waited to decide on a Core because the Jonathan Taylor news changed the game. With one of the three Colts backs decidedly out of the mix, Hines will surely get at least 10-12 touches even if Wilkins plays well. This is the same spot that Hines just torched Tennessee for two scores and over 100 scrimmage yards. That outcome is certainly in play again. Hill enters the fray as a likely chalk option and I was fine not playing the high-end backs this week. Chubb has issues in my eyes and Cook is really, really pricey. However, Cook is tracking chalky. That shouldn’t be too much of a shock with cheap backs. Ghost got me onto this play more than I was and he’s dead on the money with the thought process. I’m loving the spend on receivers like Diggs who is in a shootout with the Chargers and an easier matchup with no Hayward.

Primary Game Stacks

KC/TB – Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Evans, AB, Watkins, RoJo, Godwin

LAC/BUF – Herbert, Allen, Diggs, Beasley, Williams, Henry, Davis, Allen (stack two options with whatever quarterback you choose and it’s not an easy choice)

LAV/ATL – Carr, Waller, Ridley, Agholor, Hill, Gage/Julio, Hurst, Ryan

Secondary Game Stacks

CAR/MIN – Cook, Teddy B, Jefferson, Samuel, Moore, Cousins, Anderson, Davis

TEN/IND – Henry (potential slate-breaker), Brown, Pittman, Davis, Tannehill, Taylor, Hines, Rivers, Burton

CLE/JAX – Landry, Hunt, Chubb, Viska, Cole (mostly going to be a one and one stack in part of the main stack, not going overboard here)

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

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