NFL DFS Picks

NFL Game By Game Breakdown Divisional Weekend

We’re down to just eight teams left and this week, we have all the games on one main slate. That’s how we’re going to treat it and the teams left present a ton of opportunities. This is a tougher slate with a lot of star power and multiple paths to go. No matter who you play, you’re going to feel like you left players off that could kill you. It’s a good slate to pull some three max entries but there is one team that is my primary focus. I may not be out on a limb in the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Divisional Weekend and we’ll figure out where we’re heading!

Rams at Packers, O/U of 45.5 (Packers -6.5)

Rams

QB – Salary isn’t the easiest to fit everyone in, but I’m not convinced it’ll be worth it to save money and play Jared Goff this week. Getting him at a ceiling game to match the other studs seems unlikely. His throws last week did not look great coming off a thumb injury and even though more time will help, Goff was sub-par a lot of the year. I’d want him to hit nearly 24 DK points to make it worth sacrificing a stud and that happened just five times all season. He only had a 0.40 pDB on the season, good for just 25th in the league. One of the biggest issues was the RZ attempts, with just 56. That wasn’t even in the top 20 and even in what could be a negative game script, I don’t love this route.

RB – The entirety of the field will be on Cam Akers this week and I can’t say they’re wrong. First off, it’s just a volume play. Over the past four games, he’s recorded 101 touches which is enormous. He’s under $6,000 which is ridiculous after a 28.6 DK point game last week. On top of that, Green Bay has had issues on the ground all year. The Packers were 18th in DVOA agains the run and the Rams are sixth in attempts per game. They also gave up over 2,200 scrimmage yards and 19 touchdowns this season. Even if the game gets too far out of hand, Akers should stay involved enough in the passing game. Honestly, the Rams likely try to run the ball to death and control the clock for 35+ minutes.

WR – The duo of Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both look like values, especially if we feel better about Goff’s thumb. Kupp really is cheap and is coming off nine targets last week. I always favor the cheaper player and this week is certainly an extension of that. Woods should see more of Jaire Alexander, even though I don’t believe it to be a true shadow situation. Alexander was top 15 in pPT, passer rating allowed and catch rate allowed on the season.

The slot rates are striking for these players though as Kupp is at 55% and Woods is at 28.6%. With the overall targets, RZ targets and EZ targets being about identical for these players, Kupp is the path of least resistance and cheaper on top of it. They’re the only two receivers I would consider from this team.

TE – You can argue that Tyler Higbee is a better play if the game goes out of whack, but I’m not really buying it. The Rams just don’t run him on a ton of routes normally and there’s some different options at the position this week. His target share is under 12% and he only has a total of nine RZ/EZ targets on the entire season. Even at $3,000 that wouldn’t cut it. We should also note that the Packers were a top three team in DK points given up to the position with just five scores on the season.

D/ST – The low price is interesting in theory. The Packers did lose their left tackle David Bakhtiari in Week 17, and that is a big loss. Perhaps if the Rams have a healthy Aaron Donald you could entertain this but you have to know just how risky it it. The Pack only allowed a 14% pressure rate, lowest in the league and just 20 sacks. LA might be the best defense in football, but this is a strength on strength matchup to be sure.

*Update* Donald is in line to play and it’s an interesting route. I’m not sure any defense is going to stand out here.

Cash – Akers, Kupp, Woods

GPP – D/ST

Packers

QB – The Packers as a team are fascinating because they have arguably the toughest matchup on the board. I would suspect the Chiefs and their stack is the most popular on the weekend and they should be. That leaves a Packers stack of Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams as super intriguing. The Rams are the fourth-best passing defense by DVOA and only the Saints have a higher mark left in the field. We all know what Rodgers is capable of with a 48:5 TD:INT ratio on the season, the highest pDB at 0.66, the fourth-most points per game and the seventh-most yards. The fact he’s under $7,000 doesn’t make a ton of sense and I’m going to be watching to see how highly rostered he’ll be this weekend.

RB – Aaron Jones has been may nemesis all season long and I don’t think that changes here. I likely don’t play much, if at all. The salary is palatable and when the games were competitive and mattered down the stretch, Jones was more towards the 70% snap rate that we need. Jones does have a 14.8% target share in the offense, which helps maintain some floor but the Rams are third in DVOA against the run. They did allow some big gains for Chris Carson last week and maybe Jones can find some of those same holes. I just don’t have a ton of lean to play him. Akers should see just as big a workload for $1,100 cheaper or you could go up to Alvin Kamara. Jones is in an odd pricing range.

WR – This is one of the most fun individual matchups of the week as Adams squares off against Jalen Ramsey. He was the fourth-best corner in pPT on the year at just 1.30 but Adams was about the best receiver in football. The easiest argument to make is to play Tyreek Hill because the matchup isn’t nearly as difficult, but to cast aside Adams is dead wrong. Ramsey is very good but the Adams/Rodgers combo is lethal. If you’re playing a three max, I would lean two of the Chiefs players and one Rodgers/Adams. It’s actually slightly cheaper for the second combo and gives you a different path. Adams has rarely been shut down to the point of not worth playing at all this year.

If you think that Adams struggles, that has ripple effects through the offense since he carries a target share over 33%. Not only would Aaron Jones get a few more receptions, Marques Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard become more involved as well. You’re really only playing these two as boom or bust options, so I would lean MVS. Lazard hasn’t looked the same after his core muscle surgery, and MVS has shown ceiling lately. He’s also shown a 0 and a -0.4, so know what you’re getting into. The snaps have been about equal and MVS plays mostly on the outside, with a slot rate under 24%.

TE – The other player who could benefit if Adams is getting slowed down is Robert Tonyan. He still confuses me. Tonyan broke out with 11 touchdowns but only has 11 RZ targets and seven EZ targets on the year, along with an 11.8% target share. It tells me that if he doesn’t score, he’s likely not going to do very much. In the games he didn’t score, Tonyan has put up a 2.7, 6.3, 1.5, 12.9, 5.2, 5.5 and a 0. The floor is there, and it’s scary this week. The Rams did allow seven scores but also gave up the ninth-fewest yards. I think I’m going elsewhere this week.

D/ST – If we can fit them, that’s fine but we always want to build the lineup first and fill in defense last. The Rams are going to have a quarterback with some kind of issues no matter who they play and Green Bay generated 41 sacks on the season with 18 turnovers. I just think we have a hard time fitting them.

Cash – None that I feel are really needed

GPP – Rodgers, Adams, Jones, Tonyan, MVS

Ravens at Bills, O/U of 49.5 (Bills -2.5)

Ravens

QB – There’s a reason we want Lamar Jackson on just about every slate, and that was on full display last week. He turned in another relatively crappy passing performance, with under 180 yards and a pick. His fantasy points came from the 136 and a touchdown on the ground, good for about 22 of his 28.8 DK points. It’s no secret that Lamar can do that every game out and he’s one of the only 3-4 quarterbacks that I would play on this slate. Buffalo did pull off a 12th ranked finish in DVOA against the pass but they weren’t giving a ton of resistance to the Colts passing game. With the rushing upside Lamar brings every game, we have to be interested. It wouldn’t be that surprising if Jackson led the weekend in rushing yards in my opinion.

RB – I really thought that once the playoffs kicked off, the Ravens would give their best running back the bulk of the work but that wasn’t the case. J.K. Dobbins only touched the ball 10 times compared to eight for Gus Edwards, and you can’t play a back in this kind of split at this salary. Not only does he have to contend with Edwards and Jackson for rushing opportunities, Dobbins isn’t utilized in the passing game at all. He had just one target last week and just 24 on the season. He would have to score multiple touchdowns and/or break a long one to pay off. There’s not a huge path for him to get more than about 12-14 touches so I’m not likely to go here. At the same time, I’m worried to fully fade him in a run-based offense against the 17th ranked DVOA against the run.

WR – This is simply Marquise Brown or bust. There’s not other receiver that I’m looking at because last week Dez Bryant, Miles Boykin and Willie Snead combined for three targets. Hollywood saw nine targets last week, which was the second-highest of the season. He’s been a little bit more involved lately with nine, eight, four and seven targets over the past four games. The matchup isn’t as bad as some may think either, as we saw rookie Michael Pittman and T.Y. Hilton give the Bills secondary some issues last week. We have feared Tre White in the past but that hasn’t been the case this season with a 94.5 passer rating allowed and a 64.1% catch rate. I don’t love him like I did last week, but he’s in play. I will be much heavier on this next player though.

TE – Mark Andrews was disappointing last week but this is a great bounce-back spot and I’m in. I mean, Jack Doyle lit up this defense. Let that one sink in. The tight ends have been a sore spot for Buffalo all season long. They were bottom five in about every category you can imagine all year long, including yards allowed, receptions and touchdowns. For Andrews, he missed two games and finished just 10 targets off the team lead and led in RZ and tied for the lead in EZ targets. The salary is still very affordable after a dud last week, making it easier to pull off a two tight end lineup this week.

D/ST – They’re coming off a week where they shut down Derrick Henry but I’m not sure this is the exact same spot. What’s interesting is the Ravens blitzed at the highest rate in the league this year, 45.1%. The Steelers were second and they did give Buffalo some issues for a half in their matchup. Baltimore logged 23 turnovers and 40 sacks on the season, and if the weather is nasty I can get on board.

Cash – Andrews, Lamar

GPP – Hollywood, Dobbins, D/ST

Bills

QB – I think Josh Allen is going to end up fourth in terms of priority at quarterback for me, behind Jackson, Rodgers and one still not discussed. He flashed everything that we target in a quarterback last week with 324 yards passing, two touchdowns and then added 54 yards rushing and another touchdown. We talked about it last week, but he finished top 10 in RZ passing attempts and rushing attempts at his position. The touchdown equity is among the highest it can get at this position. Baltimore finished 10th in DVOA against the pass, but Indy was higher and gave Allen little problem. Allen was fourth in pDB on the season and was 14th in completion rate under pressure. If he can figure out the blitzes, he could smash yet again.

RB – It’s a chalky piece but at the salary, it’s hard to ignore Devin Singletary. He’s got the backfield to himself with Zack Moss on the IR and out for the playoffs. They were splitting snaps and touches, but we could see Singletary get 12-14 carries and tack on another 2-4 receptions. That style of volume is too good to pass up at this price tag, regardless of the level of chalk. Salary is tight this week if you’re shooting for a big money stack. Baltimore was also top 12 in DVOA against the run, but I would expect OC Brian Daboll to get Singletary in space as much as he can to utilize Singletary’s strengths. Playing Singletary and Akers should get you 35-40 touches for barely $10,000 on DK.

WR – Stefon Diggs scored over 27 DK points and the site dropped his price. Alrighty then. Diggs continues to prove why he’s one of the best receivers in football, going for 128 yards and a touchdown last week. Diggs would likely see some of Marcus Peters and that’s advantage Diggs. Peters was solid with a 1.70 pPT but also allowed a 13.1 YPR and a 92.6 passer rating over 102 targets. Diggs is not going to have a problem here in my eyes. The weather could be the only slight issue, but even if it snows I think that gives Diggs the advantage. He knows where the route is going and the secondary is going to have a harder time reacting to it.

Cole Beasley has a strength on strength matchup against Marlon Humphrey in the slot, but Beasley is cheap as well. Humphrey only allowed a 58.9% completion rate and the 12th lowest YPR at 10.4. Beasley accounted for right about a 20% target share on the year and his 8.0 aDOT was the lowest of the corps. He’s clearly the safety valve in the offense and interesting to me even in a tough spot. I also have interest in John Brown. After burning half the field last week with a goose, folks will be hesitant to go back to the well. That alone makes it a good spot and Brown only needs one play to pay off as the deep threat in the offense. Gabriel Davis had a solid game last week but he only played about 50% of the snaps and would be highly volatile.

TE – It was a good thing for Dawson Knox that he caught a touchdown because nothing else was really there for him. Knox had been more involved in the offense lately but this was a step back. I think it’s harder to punt this week with the options we have at the top end. If most people play the high end options and they’re well into the double-digits, Knox scoring under five DK would really be a killer. Baltimore only gave up five touchdowns on the year, not exactly the spot that I’m excited for.

D/ST – I really don’t want to play Buffalo this week. Baltimore’s offense is clicking for the most part and they really have shown issues through this season. They did force 26 turnovers on the season but they also allowed almost 500 yards off offense last week, including 163 rushing yards. That’s not a good sign against the best running team in football.

Cash – Allen, Diggs, Singletary

GPP – Brown, Beasley

Browns at Chiefs, O/U of 57.5 (Chiefs -10)

Browns

QB – It doesn’t always work out, but you could argue to play Baker Mayfield if he’s going to be playing catch-up or in a shootout all game. The script of the Monday Night Baltimore game when he scored 34 DK works in theory. However, that’s all it is – theory. It’s the same train of thought that we mentioned with Knox. If Baker scores 16 or so DK and the other big name quarterbacks are around 30, you’re behind the eight ball. Baker was only 18th in pDB on the season and 25th in points per game, but the seasonal data isn’t the best. Mayfield had almost a month-long stretch where his games were sabotaged by weather. There’s upside here but there’s also significant downside with too much volatility for me. I would only have shares in 20 max this week.

RB – If this game stays close, it’s very likely Nick Chubb is having a monster game. The Chiefs finished 31st in DVOA against the run and gave up the ninth-most rushing yards in the league. It can be hard to keep the games close enough stick with the run but this is the best chance for the Browns. Cleveland was in the top five in rushing attempts and top there in rushing yards per game and you’d like to think Chubb is going to get a big workload here. He got 24 touches last week but that was in a script with a massive lead by the end of the first quarter.

If the game goes wonky for Cleveland, Kareem Hunt could be the ideal pivot (especially off Singletary chalk). Since Chubb has come back in Week 10, Hunt has 103 touches to 146 for Chubb, not quite the gap you might think. Chubb also leads in RZ carries, but just a 25-16 rate. Not only could he poach a touchdown, he profiles more as the passing down back which the Browns may need a lot of. I’m interested and not for any ridiculous “revenge” narrative.

WR – The Browns barely needed to pass since they were up about 275 points five minutes into the game, and Jarvis Landry still got eight targets. In a game script that at the very least will be more competitive, I would expect 10+ and he is super duper cheap. I think the best guess here is the Chiefs try to shade him a lot with linebackers and kick Tyrann Mathieu into the slot. He only has a 29% slot rate and L’Jarius Sneed is at 23.9%. The Chiefs don’t play just one slot corner, so they could continue to utilize different looks to try and limit Landry. I still wouldn’t shy away at this price for the volume expected.

I was on Rashard Higgins last week but the situation is different. Statistically, Bashaud Breeland has been the Chiefs best corner. He was inside the top 10 in pPT, catch rate and passer rating allowed . The small catch is he only played 11 games, but it’s still a 59 target sample size. The volume could be there more than it was last weekend but the corner matchup is far worse for the Browns outside receiver.

TE – If we’re not going to play Andrews, Hooper is my next man up at the position. He’s very affordable coming off an 11 (!) target game last week. It was also an area that KC struggled in all year. They allowed the eighth-most receptions, fifth-most yards and nine touchdowns. Since the Odell Beckham injury, Hooper is second on the team in RZ and EZ targets, not to mention the 14.8% target share. The RZ and EZ work is of significant interest, because he played two fewer games than Landry (who leads in both). It’s not hard to construct a big game for Hooper here this week.

D/ST – Congratulations on beating Pittsburgh, and it was well deserved but I will not play Cleveland’s Swiss cheese secondary against the most explosive offense in football.

Cash – Chubb, Landry, Hooper

GPP – Baker, Hunt

Chiefs

QB – Sweet sassy molassey does this Chiefs stack look awesome. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t played in a couple weeks, but that is about the only concern we can come up with here. The Browns finished 25th in DVOA against the pass and were just shredded by a dysfunctional offense. You can argue that they played shell coverages all night, and that’s fine. Mahomes isn’t going to chuck four picks and the Browns are going to struggle here by all indications. Mahomes finished sixth in deep ball attempts, second in yards and fourth in touchdown passes all in just 15 games. He is my number one option on the board. I know, very risky.

RB – The jury is still out on Clyde Edwards-Helaire playing or not, but this is the leverage spot. I’m sure the Chiefs passing stack will be the most popular on the slate. What happens if CEH (or Le’Veon Bell) go nuts here instead? Even James Conner put up points and barely touched the ball. Cleveland finished just 17th in DVOA against the run and gave up about 1,800 scrimmage yards. If fading the main components of the Chiefs, you’re already tempting fate. You may as well go all in and hope CEH hangs 20-25 DK. He recently did that against the Raiders, and Mahomes “only” out up 25 DK. A significant chunk of those points came on the last drive on top of it.

*Update* We still have no real news with CEH. Hopefully something emerges Saturday before kick of the Packers game.

WR – Remember what JuJu Smith-Schuster did last week? Yeah, Tyreek Hill is going to get that same matchup on Kevin Johnson around 41% of the time in the slot. Now, I think we can all agree that the Hill/Mahomes combo is A LOT better than the Ben/JuJu combo, and Hill is in one of the biggest smash spots on the slate. The last time I felt this good about him, he went NUCLEAR for 60 DK. I don’t think that will happen, but he’s going to torch Cleveland. Not only has Johnson allowed a 107.6 passer rating and a 69.8% catch rate, he runs a 4.52 40-yard dash. Wheels. Up.

Much like CEH, Sammy Watkins is the leverage in this passing game if he plays. We need some clarity there as he hasn’t practiced since Week 16. He plays the slot a little less at 34.7% and since returning from injury has a target share under 13%. With Mahomes as the QB, it’s only going to take a play or two to pay it off and poach a Hill or Kelce touchdown. If Watkins is out, expect Demarcus Robinson to be the value receiver everyone plays. This game stack as a whole looks super appealing as it’s the highest O/U on the slate at 57.5 points.

*Update* Watkins is out, which leaves Robinson as a likely popular play. You could zig with Mecole Hardman and hope for a bomb, which is entirely possible this week.

TE – I’ll take all the Travis Kelce, thank you. Getting a two tight end lineup with Andrews is one of my favorite plays of the slate at this juncture. Kelce finished just five points behind Stefon Diggs for the WR3 in PPR settings. He’s too cheap, has a 25.6% target share and 30.4% share of the RZ carries. He’s easily the TE1 on the slate and worth every penny (and then some). We’re not spending too much time here. Reek and Kelce are in glorious spots and I have a hard time arguing the fade. If we’re going to take a stand, what better spot to do it than the KC stack and get different elsewhere?

D/ST – Much like the Packers, I have no issues here with the Chiefs. Baker has been playing well, but he’s been “on schedule” for the most part meaning that the Browns can rely on the strong run game and Baker is smart and takes shots. If this one gets out of hand, KC has the 16th ranked DVOA against the pass and could turn the ball over. They forced 22 turnovers on the season and the 11th ranked pressure rate at 24.8%.

Cash – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill

GPP – CEH (or Bell), Watkins (or Robinson)

Buccaneers at Saints, O/U of 52 (Saints -3)

Buccaneers

QB – If the Bucs want to exorcise the demons, I very much think Tom Brady will have to lead the charge. This is no easy spot as the Saints were top three in total DVOA, against the run and against the pass. He threw the ball 40 times last week despite leading the entire way and the Saints should be able to mount more of an offense than Washington did last week. Since Week 11, Brady has only been under 40 pass attempts twice and once was when he got yanked at the half against Detroit. He still threw 27 times. Brady finished first in air yards per attempt and second in attempts on the season. The pDB is 0.53 which was 10th but at this volume he would be in play for me in 20 max.

RB – We’re not sure if Ronald Jones will play this week or not. He got hurt pre-game last week and scorched everyone with a zero, while Leonard Fournette got all the run. The Saints allowed the seventh-fewest rush yards on the season to go along with only 356 receiving yards. I don’t believe either RoJo or Fournette would be “must plays” in a vacuum but Fournette would offer PPR value to go with a Chiefs stack if RoJo is out.

*Update* Arians says that Fournette will start but if RoJo is up to speed, he’ll get his normal reps. I’m out on this mess.

WR – I don’t know what it is, but Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore do NOT care for each other. They’ve gotten into a fight on the field in past years, and the last three games when Evans has lineup up opposite of Lattimore he has six total targets and zero receptions.

Tampa likely tries to get Evans away, but he totaled just about 18 DK points combined in Saints games this year. At the prices, I think Evans is strictly GPP and nothing more.

Instead, I’ll focus on Chris Godwin who was targeted 12 times last week. He gets one of the better matchups in the NO secondary with Chauncey Grander-Johnson in the slot. I have to give it up to Gardner-Johnson overall as he was targeted 112 times and only ceded a 53.6% catch rate and a 1.30 pPT. This is all about Brady and Godwin, no to mention the salary. Lastly, Antonio Brown is a conundrum. He looks too cheap every week (and still does) but was only targeted three times last week. He scored so he went for 3x but the targets were still sketchy overall. AB could see Janoris Jenkins who allowed a 1.70 pPT but I don’t wonder if the Bucs do their best to flip AB and Evans as far as matchups.

TE – After seeing Rob Gronkowski go for zero points on just one target, I’ll admit I’m a bit rattled. Cameron Brate saw six targets last week and he has these random games that pop up. Brate would have gone for 20 DK had he not dropped a touchdown in the fourth quarter. I think the best way to look a this situation is to avoid it. Hooper is right next to Gronk in salary, and you can’t afford to take the chance that Brate repeats this. I’m staying away overall and just focusing on the receivers.

D/ST – On paper it’s not the best spot for them. The Saints only gave up a 14.6% pressure rate when Drew Brees was under center and Brees himself only had eight turnovers in 13 games. I think the difference is Brees is still not looking al the way there to my eye. Be it the rib injury that he has to still be feeling or just the age, his throws lack a whole lot of zip. A ball-hawking unit that forced 26 turnovers could force some in this game.

Cash – Godwin, AB, D/ST

GPP – Brady, Evans, RoJo or Fournette

Saints

QB – Brees dropped back and threw the ball 39 times last week and still couldn’t crack 19 DK points. Tampa has had significant issues on the defense as of late, and I really want to make a case for him. He’s cheap and the Bucs have the best run defense in football but I can’t quite get there with Brees. In fairness, he was 12th in pDB on the season but the 5.9 air yards per attempt ranked 36th in the league. I just think the risk of playing Brees doesn’t match the potential reward and would rather just give a try for Baker in this range.

RB – This is an interesting spot for Alvin Kamara. He was fine last week and touched the ball 25 times. He also faces the best run defense and weirdly wasn’t targeted that much last week. Two targets for Kamara? What in the world is that about? The Bucs gave up the most receptions to backs over the course of the season at 101 and Kamara was targeted 14 times in the course of two games this year. The real issue comes in when deciding to play Kamara or the Chiefs studs and I’m not sure I see a ton of likelihood of that happening. My path is taking cheaper backs and pairing them with Kansas City, and hoping Kamara is just average.

WR – Michael Thomas is sure to be popular since he came back onto the scene and paid off with an 18.3 DK point game. MT was targeted seven times in a winning game script, and could see it get towards 10 this week. Based on how he’s lined up in his limited action, MT would see a good bit of Jamel Dean who played well this year. He only allowed a 1.50 pPT and 9.6 YPR, but if Thomas is full go for the first time all year he’s simply not nearly expensive enough.

We need to know if Tre’Quan Smith is coming back for the game. If not, Deonte Harris would be right back in the mix, as he saw seven targets last week. Smith would really muddy the waters and we’ll update this on Friday when he have a better idea.

TE – Much like the other tight ends we talked about, I don’t want to mess with Jared Cook. I can play Hooper and Andrews is not that much more expensive. Cook is pricey for a player that busts if he doesn’t score and his target share for the year was under 13%. Even the RZ work wasn’t great at 16.9% and that was without Thomas in the lineup for most of the season. The Bucs did have some issues with tight ends but have their linebacker Devin White in line to get back in action this week.

D/ST – The Saints generated pressure just over 25% of the time and that can be an issue at times for Brady and the Bucs. It’s not something we should get too excited about, but the Saints scored 16 and 17 DK in their matchups this year. If they fit, I’m totally fine with them.

Cash – Thomas, Kamara, D/ST

GPP – Brees, Cook, secondary receiver TBD

Core Four

Chiefs stack of the main three pieces and Singletary for cash games

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NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Sunday

We are back with the second three game slate of the weekend, and this one is a bi trickier from the salary perspective. Fitting two of the best running backs in fantasy with a top quarterback might be difficult, but we’re going to figure out where the best path is. Even for three games, there’s a lot to get to in the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Sunday!

Ravens at Titans, O/U of 54.5 (Ravens -3.5)

Ravens

QB – This slate is a lot different than Sunday at the quarterback position, because I think we only have one very true ceiling option. Perhaps Ryan Tannehill gives him a run for his money, but Lamar Jackson stands out with his rushing ability as the lead dog. He finished the season in style with at least 22 DK in the last five and 26 or higher in three of them. In a game where he’s in desperate need of a win, I’m not going to be surprised in the least if Jackson isn’t out to win it by himself. Even in what was somewhat considered a down year, Jackson was seventh in points per game, third in pDB, 12th in passing touchdowns and ninth in clean completion rate. He had another 1,000 yard rushing season and finished second in RZ carries. The Tennessee defense finished 30th in DVOA against the pass and Jackson should be able to do whatever he wants. It’s more a question of how to fit him.

RB – I said last week that J.K. Dobbins and I still feel that way to some extent. Let’s look at how he got there. He only had 13 carries on the day, a bit of a red flag to start with. With no receptions, that’s not ideal. He also ripped off a 72-yard touchdown which was worth 16 DK points with the 100-yard bonus. Now, nobody is saying that he can’t replicate that feat against the Titans, who rank 16th in DVOA against the run. Baltimore is one of the best run offenses in football. The other factor to weigh is Dobbins have been involved in blowouts for three straight weeks. He’s only played about half the snaps in those three games. The hard part is trying to play him with the other two big backs that we’ll get to here in a bit.

WR – Hollywood Brown is really going to tempt me on this one. The Ravens are one of the lowest-volume passing attacks in football, and no player surpassed 100 targets this year. Brown was the closest at 99 and he led in air yards share at 37.8%. Brown also led the team in yards and tied for the lead in receptions. Anytime we can get a speedster against the Tennessee secondary, I’m all the way in. The Titans allowed 22 touchdowns (tied for the third-most) and the fourth-most yards.

I hope game log watchers are freaked out by the goose egg Brown threw in the first meeting. Brown is cheap and if he gets on Malcolm Butler, I like his chances for a long bomb. The likelihood is the Titans match him with Adoree’ Jackson, who has the speed to keep up with him. The problem with that at least in the short-term, Jackson has been terrrrrible. He’s been targeted 13 times and has allowed 12 receptions, a 153.4 passer rating and a 3.40 pPT. I’m going to likely end up with some Hollywood this week.

The secondary target in the corps is tough. Willie Snead may or may not play, which in theory could open up a spot for Myles Boykin. I’m very hesitant to use secondary Ravens targets in this game.

TE – Just like Hollywood, Mark Andrews is probably too cheap for his role and matchup. Andrews leads RZ targets and only finished 10 targets behind Brown for the team lead overall. The Titans are average against tight ends and have given up eight touchdowns. He went for 20 DK the first go around and really the only issue is cap space. Can we prioritize a generally expensive tight end? It might be tough. There’s a lot of other players that will be on the forefront, and I’m interested to what we see as far as ownership for Andrews. There is no other reason to not play him against the worst DVOA defense in the field.

D/ST – There’s pretty much no way that I’m playing the Ravens defense. They’re over $3,000 and they have a tough matchup. While they’ve managed to force 22 turnovers, the Titans have only 12 turnovers on the year. That’s been the second fewest on the season and they only allowed 24 sacks on the season. There’s no need to attack this matchup and the only way they pay off is likely if they score a defensive or special teams touchdown. That is a possibility since the Titans were 28th in special teams DVOA.

Cash – Jackson, Dobbins, Brown, Andrews

GPP – D/ST

Titans

QB – He doesn’t get a ton of attention all the time but Ryan Tannehill was one of the best fantasy options on the year. He finished second in pPD, ninth in points per game, sixth in yards per attempt and seventh in passing touchdowns. Baltimore is 10th in DVOA against the pass and only gave up 21 touchdown passes, tied for second-fewest in the league. It’s really not a great matchup but we shouldn’t cast him aside. He hit over 22 DK points in the first matchup and there’s so little to pick at with him. Unless you think the run game fails, I’m not sure he has the same ceiling that Jackson does. I would be more likely to spend lower at quarterback if going outside of Jackson.

RB – It already feels like Derrick Henry is going to be chalk and it scares the heck out of me to fade him. It’s also at least slightly worrisome to play him at this salary because the Titans defense is so bad, they can ruin any game script. You need at least 27 DK points for 3x, let alone anything else. The matchup isn’t overbearing with the Ravens being 12th in DVOA against the run, but it really feels like Henry is going for 35+ DK or under 10 and there might not be much in-between. Just look at the last five weeks. From last week moving back, he’s scored 39.0, 9.8, 28.2, 39.2 and then 6.9. It’s not a surprise that the two poor games came with Tennessee getting blasted on the scoreboard. My approach is to play three max on these slates, and I will have at least one lineup without Henry.

*Update* The move in GPP is to fade Henry for Kamara in my eyes. You’re trying to finish first, and if Henry duds you have a big leg up.

WR – The massive salary gap is back between A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, with the difference checking in at $2,200. The seasonal stats won’t reflect that as the air yards share is 2.5% difference, targets are only 14 apart, receptions are five apart and yards are under 100 apart. Brown does have a big advantage in touchdowns at 11-5, but past that they are very close. The big factor is choosing correctly, because they did not have big games together this year. Only twice did they both clear 15 Dk in the same game and once came against this Ravens team. Davis scored 19.3, Brown scored 16.2 and Henry scored 23.2.

There seems to be a good reason to believe that not all three of these Titans can crush together. If Henry is imposing his will, the passing game isn’t required to do as much. On the off chance that Henry gets slowed down, the receivers have to pick up the slack. Brown is going to mostly face Jimmy Smith, who played very well this year in his limited time. Over 45 targets, Smith only allowed a 59 passer rating and a 46.7% catch rate. Paying up at other spots likely leaves Brown out of my main builds, though he makes sense if you fade Henry. Davis should get Marcus Peters, who allowed a 13.1 YPR and a 62.7% catch rate. Davis could be a salary saver we just fall into since he’s so cheap.

TE – I probably don’t find myself playing Jonnu Smith very much on this slate. He’s kind of the AFC version of Tyler Higbee, but he scores more touchdowns. Smith is only running a route 65.8% of the time, which is 22nd among tight ends. He didn’t end the season in the top 15 in targets, receptions or yards but he did score nine touchdowns, third-most. With the Ravens only allowing five scores to the position, it’s not exactly the best matchup either.

D/ST – They are the worst defense of any team left in the field, have a 17.3% pressure rate (31st) and only 19 sacks. That’s a hard pass for me.

Cash – Henry, Tannehill

GPP – AJB, Davis, Smith

Bears at Saints, O/U of 47.5 (Saints -10)

Bears

QB – The Bears are the biggest underdog on the entire weekend, and by that logic we should at least consider Mitch Trubisky. If he’s going to be throwing a ton, we could get some much needed salary relief and possibly even garbage time stats. The issue with that approach is he’s still Trubisky, and even last week he threw the ball 42 times for just 252 yards. If he hadn’t rushed for 22 yards, Trubisky wouldn’t have even broken double-digit DK points. That’s the kind of floor he has and he only ended at a 0.46 pDB, 17th in the league. I would really prefer not to play him against the third-best DVOA unit against the pass. A GPP lineup with him and loaded at other positions does make some sense, even if it isn’t pretty on paper.

RB – David Montgomery is a back that the matchup would tell us to fade, but the workload might be too much to ignore. His price came down $800 and I know that playoff pricing can be a little looser, but he still racked up 31 touches last week. Over the past three weeks, he hasn’t been under 25 total touches and that includes 12 receptions. New Orleans does check in as the number two ranked DVOA against the run and the seventh-fewest rushing yards allowed. hey also controlled the backs in the passing game with just 61 receptions allowed, fourth-fewest. With so many other big backs on the slate, I wonder where Monty slots in ownership-wise. It might not be high enough.

WR – It’s be a very volatile back half of the season for Allen Robinson. Since Week 8, he’s had five weeks under 20 DK (what you need for 3x at his current salary) but he’s also had a 30 point effort and 27 point effort mixed in. If you’ve read for most of the year, you know that Saints corner Marshon Lattimore hasn’t been a corner we’ve feared. Over 83 targets, he’s allowed a 14.2 YPR, 100.3 passer rating and a 1.90 pPT. A-Rob seems underpriced and could go off in the Vegas game script, I just think it’s smart to realize what he’s been for this year. P.S. someone get this man a quarterback for once in his career!

We’ll update this end of things when we know more but Darnell Mooney is questionable and may not play. If he does, he’s going to be on my radar as a punt facing a good deal of Janoris Jenkins. Opposite of Lattimore, Jenkins has allowed a 13.6 YPR and a 1.70 pPT. If Mooney is out, Anthony Miller is likely going to be very popular as a salary saver. Miller grinder a 12.8% target share on the year and if Mooney’s 16.5% share is out, Miller should be in a prime spot to benefit.

*Update* Mooney is out, which leaves Miller as what I’ll bet is very popular.

TE – Since the bye week, Cole Kmet has not played under 70% of the snaps and has been more toward the 90% mark the past three games. The rookie is on the field a ton, and that’s always such a big factor when we look for punts. Jimmy Graham has poached touchdowns to a very annoying degree, but Kmet has 33-19 targets in that time span. Graham has the touchdown lead at 3-1 but I’d rather take the snaps and targets in this price range. New Orleans had issues at times with tight ends as well, allowing them to score nine times, tied for fifth-most in the league.

D/ST – I suppose the Bears defense is about as low as we can be comfortable playing, although I don’t love them. New Orleans only turned the ball over 17 times all year, and Chicago forced just 18. The way New Orleans looked down the stretch and with their injuries/underperformers, Chicago could pay off in this spot.

Cash – Monty, Kmet as a punt, D/ST

GPP – A-Rob, Trubisky, Mooney if active

Saints

QB – You see Drew Brees in a playoff game at $5,700 and you feel like you have to play him, but there’s been some questions about him since coming back from injury. The TD:INT ratio stands at 6:3 which isn’t that great for Brees to start with. He’s been under 240 passing yards in two of three and has been living on the touchdowns, with three scores in two games. Brees just hasn’t passed the eye test that much and the ball doesn’t look great when he throws it. That’s not a huge surprise, as Brees was already 36th in air yards per attempt. The Bears are 13th in DVOA against the pass and even when he was healthy in the first matchup, Brees didn’t hit 20 DK. I’m not convinced we need to try to get him right, but the price is messing with me.

RB – We should see Alvin Kamara get back in time for this game, and you have to imagine that the NFL made sure the Saints played Sunday instead of Saturday. On the off chance he doesn’t play, Latavius Murray would be a lock at $4,500. Let’s figure on Kamara playing and with Brees back in, we know that Kamara will get targeted. Kamara had a 22.9% target share on the season and finished at 107 total. Chicago was second in DVOA against the run but gave up over 2,000 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns. We know that on DK, Kamara is close to matchup-proof because of how many receptions he racks up.

WR – It appears Michael Thomas is back for this game and $6,300 has to be as low as he’s been since his rookie year. He only played seven games this year, but when he was active MT accounted for a 28.1% target share and a 43.6% air yards share. That’s way too much of an offense to be this low, especially with how many times MT could be targeted. The offense is going to flow through him and Kamara, as both could see 10+ looks. Thomas will see probably a mix of Jaylon Johnson and Kyle Fuller. They have played well with a pPT not over 1.80, a passer rating no over 90% and Johnson has allowed just a 56.8% catch rate. We just need to keep an eye on the health of Thomas heading into this game.

*Update* MT is active and an interesting stat – He and Brees have played all of 10 quarters together so far this year. That’s it.

Emmanuel Sanders will go back to being third fiddle in the passing game, and still have a tougher matchup against either corner not covering Thomas. Even with Thomas missing nine games, Sanders still din’t break 20% in target share, and that’s a worry. If he’s only gong to get 5-6 targets against the Bears, he’s not likely to be the best play.

TE – Playing Jared Cook depends on what weapons the Saints have available in this game. If everyone is healthy, I think he takes a bit of a hit. I’m not sure this is the truest measure considering how the season went, but Cook did lead the team in EZ targets with nine and tied for the lead in RZ looks. What’s somewhat interesting is the Bears let up 12 touchdowns to tight ends this year, third-most. They were also in the bottom six in receptions and yardage allowed, so this is a soft matchup. He got them the first game with a 5/51/1, but keep in mind that MT was still out as well. The price likely keeps me mostly off Cook.

D/ST – The Saints can bring the heat, racking up the fifth-highest pressure rate and 45 sacks on the season. Getting to Trubisky should lead to mistakes and New Orleans was a top 10 unit in DVOA on the year. I just don’t know if we can afford the highest-priced difference today.

CAsh – Kamara, Thomas

GPP – Brees, Cook, Sanders, D/ST

Browns at Steelers, O/U of 47.5 (Steelers -6)

Browns

QB – Baker Mayfield wound up with a solid game last week but he was scuffling early. If I felt better about the ceiling, I might be willing to take a shot but that ceiling is really in question. He’ll be down Joel Bonito, one of his offensive lineman in this one and head coach Kevin Stefanski due to Covid. The Steelers defense is missing corner Joe Haden, but they welcome back all the over stars that sat out last week. Baker doesn’t look like he’s anything special by the stats. He finished the year with a 0.45 pDB, 18th in the league to go with the 18th most passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Pittsburgh ended the season first in DVOA against the pass and had a 22:18 TD:INT ratio. Only the Dolphins had fewer touchdowns allowed with the same interceptions. Out of the bottom rung options, I have them ranked Brees/Baker/Trubisky.

RB – Nick Chubb missed the first game against the Steelers but he tried to make up for it with 108 rushing yards last week and a touchdown on just four carries. Pittsburgh looks tough with a fifth-ranked DVOA against the run but I’m not sure that’s totally reality. They allowed over 110 rushing yards per game (11th best) but have been gouged for 154 per contest over the past three weeks. They are vulnerable on the ground with all their missing linebackers. Chubb doesn’t have the target share that we prefer in this price range at just 5.2% but he’s been doing just fine without it. If you fade Henry, playing a duo including Dobbins and Chubb could be a somewhat unique combo. Kareem Hunt is really not the player we want on this slate. There’s too many backs that could get 20+ touches to go after one that has 10-12 touches in their future.

WR – I may not be in love with Baker, but I think a least one of the receivers is going to have a big day. Jarvis Landry is still way too cheap for his role, flirting with a nearly 30% target share since the Odell Beckham injury. Landry is running the majority from the slot, which would leave him on Mike Hilton for a lot of the game. Hilton has been solid over 52 targets with just a 59.6% catch rate allowed and a 1.60 pPT. However, Jarvis under $6,000 doesn’t make much sense.

A player I really want to have in some GPP’s is Rashard Higgins. With Haden out, that opens up a lot on the boundary. Perhaps the Steelers have Steven Nelson shadow him, but I’m not sure I’d make that bet. Even if they do, Nelson has allowed a 13.6 YPR and a 1.90 pPT. Higgins is going to have some opportunity here and that secondary has shown some issues. Since OBJ has been down, Higgins has a 30.7% air yards share, tops on the team.

TE – I can never really decide on Austin Hooper. Every time I’ve kind of liked him this year, it hasn’t worked out. It’s not a sparkling matchup either as the Steelers tied for the fewest touchdowns allowed to the position. Hooper does have an 18.5% target share since OBJ has been hurt but the 6.9 aDOT isn’t exciting. I think he’s fine, but I’m not going out of my way to play him.

D/ST – They can be worth a punt, depending how you feel about the Steelers offense. They jumped to life playing the Colts and maybe that’s all they needed to wake up. However, Pittsburgh has struggled mightily in the past few weeks. Cleveland does boast Myles Garrett and 38 sacks on the year to go with 21 turnovers. I lean towards not playing them, since their secondary can sabotage things.

Cash – Chubb, Landry

GPP – Baker, Higgins, Hooper, D/ST

Steelers

QB – It seemingly took forever, but we got a ceiling game from Ben Roethlisberger the last time out, with 28.5 DK against the Colts. Cleveland finished the season ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass, while giving up the 12th most passing yards and tied for the sixth-most passing touchdowns at 30. Is Ben a risky play? Yes, but he’s really got upside to tap into this game. The Steelers have no running game to speak of at all, finishing 28th in attempts and dead last in rushing yards per game. I’m hard pressed to think why Big Ben won’t throw 40+ times here, and if the week off helped rest his arm he could be dangerous. Ben was only 22nd in pDB at 0.42 but still finished eighth in touchdowns in just 15 games.

RB – Those stats I just quoted about the Steelers run game? Yeah, doesn’t exactly make me want to go click on James Conner. He played 64% of the snaps and this is still mostly his backfield, it’s just not very good. Conner is might be a cheap way to get 12+ touches but it is an ugly route to take. He likely has to score to make it worth playing him even at $5,000. I will say that Cleveland finished 19th in DVOA against the run, so this isn’t the worst matchup he could have. The Steelers just haven’t given you much reason to believe he pays off.

WR – Give me all the Diontae Johnson. I mean, this isn’t news if you know me but just look at what he’s done in the last two games with Big Ben. Diontae was benched in the Buffalo game for drops in Week 14, and then responded with 16 receptions on 27 targets. TWENTY. SEVEN. In two games. Ben played terribly in the Bengals game and Diontae still managed 19.9 DK points. He led the team in targets at 144 and the target share was almost 23%. Best yet, Cleveland normally doesn’t use Denzel Ward to shadow so Diontae gets a lot of Terrance Mitchell. He was targeted 107 times and allowed a 105.0 passer rating.

Ward will see a lot of Chase Claypool, who has the highest aDOT on the team at 13.2 and no other starter is particularly close. Both Claypool and Johnson had air yard shares over 25%, but Claypool is going to be volatile just like he was all year. JuJu Smith-Schuster is always the forgotten man for me, because I’m just playing Diontae. JuJu finished with just 14 more PPR points on the season despite playing almost 200 more snaps. That’s over three games of action. Kevin Johnson plays the slot for Cleveland and has allowed a 69.8% catch rate and a 107.6 passer rating over 63 targets. If you want to double stack Ben, JuJu and Diontae are the players to go with in the receiving corps.

TE – Another way to get unique is playing Eric Ebron. He’s activated off the Covid list and had the second-most RZ targets on the season at 16. The 14.9% target share doesn’t look too shabby either and the pricing is really reasonable. Cleveland didn’t play well against the position, allowing 10 touchdowns and in the bottom six in receptions and yards allowed. If you’re living in the mid-range at tight end, Ebron is my first choice.

D/ST – The Steelers led the league in pressure rate, sacks, and finished second in turnovers forced. Mayfield wasn’t under pressure a lot at just 17.7% on the year, but Pittsburgh can still create havoc. The Browns also had just 16 giveaways, so Pittsburgh is only really a spend for me if I’m making no other sacrifices.

*Update* The Steelers welcome back inside linebacker Robert Spillane this week, a pretty significant boost to the run defense. I’m a little more comfortable going here now.

Cash – Diontae, Ebron

GPP – Ben, JuJu, Claypool, Conner, D/ST

Core Four

Lamar Jackson, Alvin Kamara, Dionte Johnson, Anthony Miller

Lamar and Kamara really speak for themselves at this point of the season. I think I may skip cash on this slate to fade Henry, so it’s a Ricky Bobby Slate – First or last. Diontae is Ben’s number one target in a must-win gameand I expect a big game from him tomorrow night. Miller is interesting. A potentially chalky Bears receiver is never going to be a sure thing. I LOVE moving up to Rashard Higgins where you can in GPP. It’s an $800 difference and people won’t jump that far. With no Joe Haden, I think Higgins gets a little loose tomorrow.

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NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Sunday

We are back with the second three game slate of the weekend, and this one is a bi trickier from the salary perspective. Fitting two of the best running backs in fantasy with a top quarterback might be difficult, but we’re going to figure out where the best path is. Even for three games, there’s a lot to get to in the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Sunday!

Ravens at Titans, O/U of 54.5 (Ravens -3.5)

Ravens

QB – This slate is a lot different than Sunday at the quarterback position, because I think we only have one very true ceiling option. Perhaps Ryan Tannehill gives him a run for his money, but Lamar Jackson stands out with his rushing ability as the lead dog. He finished the season in style with at least 22 DK in the last five and 26 or higher in three of them. In a game where he’s in desperate need of a win, I’m not going to be surprised in the least if Jackson isn’t out to win it by himself. Even in what was somewhat considered a down year, Jackson was seventh in points per game, third in pDB, 12th in passing touchdowns and ninth in clean completion rate. He had another 1,000 yard rushing season and finished second in RZ carries. The Tennessee defense finished 30th in DVOA against the pass and Jackson should be able to do whatever he wants. It’s more a question of how to fit him.

RB – I said last week that J.K. Dobbins and I still feel that way to some extent. Let’s look at how he got there. He only had 13 carries on the day, a bit of a red flag to start with. With no receptions, that’s not ideal. He also ripped off a 72-yard touchdown which was worth 16 DK points with the 100-yard bonus. Now, nobody is saying that he can’t replicate that feat against the Titans, who rank 16th in DVOA against the run. Baltimore is one of the best run offenses in football. The other factor to weigh is Dobbins have been involved in blowouts for three straight weeks. He’s only played about half the snaps in those three games. The hard part is trying to play him with the other two big backs that we’ll get to here in a bit.

WR – Hollywood Brown is really going to tempt me on this one. The Ravens are one of the lowest-volume passing attacks in football, and no player surpassed 100 targets this year. Brown was the closest at 99 and he led in air yards share at 37.8%. Brown also led the team in yards and tied for the lead in receptions. Anytime we can get a speedster against the Tennessee secondary, I’m all the way in. The Titans allowed 22 touchdowns (tied for the third-most) and the fourth-most yards.

I hope game log watchers are freaked out by the goose egg Brown threw in the first meeting. Brown is cheap and if he gets on Malcolm Butler, I like his chances for a long bomb. The likelihood is the Titans match him with Adoree’ Jackson, who has the speed to keep up with him. The problem with that at least in the short-term, Jackson has been terrrrrible. He’s been targeted 13 times and has allowed 12 receptions, a 153.4 passer rating and a 3.40 pPT. I’m going to likely end up with some Hollywood this week.

The secondary target in the corps is tough.

TE – Just like Hollywood, Mark Andrews is probably too cheap for his role and matchup. Andrews leads RZ targets and only finished 10 targets behind Brown for the team lead overall. The Titans are average against tight ends and have given up eight touchdowns. He went for 20 DK the first go around and really the only issue is cap space. Can we prioritize a generally expensive tight end? It might be tough. There’s a lot of other players that will be on the forefront, and I’m interested to what we see as far as ownership for Andrews. There is no other reason to not play him against the worst DVOA defense in the field.

D/ST – There’s pretty much no way that I’m playing the Ravens defense. They’re over $3,000 and they have a tough matchup. While they’ve managed to force 22 turnovers, the Titans have only 12 turnovers on the year. That’s been the second fewest on the season and they only allowed 24 sacks on the season. There’s no need to attack this matchup and the only way they pay off is likely if they score a defensive or special teams touchdown. That is a possibility since the Titans were 28th in special teams DVOA.

Cash – Jackson, Dobbins, Brown, Andrews

GPP – D/ST

Titans

QB – He doesn’t get a ton of attention all the time but Ryan Tannehill was one of the best fantasy options on the year. He finished second in pPD, ninth in points per game, sixth in yards per attempt and seventh in passing touchdowns. Baltimore is 10th in DVOA against the pass and only gave up 21 touchdown passes, tied for second-fewest in the league. It’s really not a great matchup but we shouldn’t cast him aside. He hit over 22 DK points in the first matchup and there’s so little to pick at with him. Unless you think the run game fails, I’m not sure he has the same ceiling that Jackson does. I would be more likely to spend lower at quarterback if going outside of Jackson.

RB – It already feels like Derrick Henry is going to be chalk and it scares the heck out of me to fade him. It’s also at least slightly worrisome to play him at this salary because the Titans defense is so bad, they can ruin any game script. You need at least 27 DK points for 3x, let alone anything else. The matchup isn’t overbearing with the Ravens being 12th in DVOA against the run, but it really feels like Henry is going for 35+ DK or under 10 and there might not be much in-between. Just look at the last five weeks. From last week moving back, he’s scored 39.0, 9.8, 28.2, 39.2 and then 6.9. It’s not a surprise that the two poor games came with Tennessee getting blasted on the scoreboard. My approach is to play three max on these slates, and I will have at least one lineup without Henry.

WR – The massive salary gap is back between A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, with the difference checking in at $2,200. The seasonal stats won’t reflect that as the air yards share is 2.5% difference, targets are only 14 apart, receptions are five apart and yards are under 100 apart. Brown does have a big advantage in touchdowns at 11-5, but past that they are very close. The big factor is choosing correctly, because they did not have big games together this year. Only twice did they both clear 15 Dk in the same game and once came against this Ravens team. Davis scored 19.3, Brown scored 16.2 and Henry scored 23.2.

There seems to be a good reason to believe that not all three of these Titans can crush together. If Henry is imposing his will, the passing game isn’t required to do as much. On the off chance that Henry gets slowed down, the receivers have to pick up the slack. Brown is going to mostly face Jimmy Smith, who played very well this year in his limited time. Over 45 targets, Smith only allowed a 59 passer rating and a 46.7% catch rate. Paying up at other spots likely leaves Brown out of my main builds, though he makes sense if you fade Henry. Davis should get Marcus Peters, who allowed a 13.1 YPR and a 62.7% catch rate. Davis could be a salary saver we just fall into since he’s so cheap.

TE – I probably don’t find myself playing Jonnu Smith very much on this slate. He’s kind of the AFC version of Tyler Higbee, but he scores more touchdowns. Smith is only running a route 65.8% of the time, which is 22nd among tight ends. He didn’t end the season in the top 15 in targets, receptions or yards but he did score nine touchdowns, third-most. With the Ravens only allowing five scores to the position, it’s not exactly the best matchup either.

D/ST – They are the worst defense of any team left in the field, have a 17.3% pressure rate (31st) and only 19 sacks. That’s a hard pass for me.

Cash – Henry, Tannehill

GPP – AJB, Davis, Smith

Bears at Saints, O/U of 47.5 (Saints -10)

Bears

QB – The Bears are the biggest underdog on the entire weekend, and by that logic we should at least consider Mitch Trubisky. If he’s going to be throwing a ton, we could get some much needed salary relief and possibly even garbage time stats. The issue with that approach is he’s still Trubisky, and even last week he threw the ball 42 times for just 252 yards. If he hadn’t rushed for 22 yards, Trubisky wouldn’t have even broken double-digit DK points. That’s the kind of floor he has and he only ended at a 0.46 pDB, 17th in the league. I would really prefer not to play him against the third-best DVOA unit against the pass. A GPP lineup with him and loaded at other positions does make some sense, even if it isn’t pretty on paper.

RB – David Montgomery is a back that the matchup would tell us to fade, but the workload might be too much to ignore. His price came down $800 and I know that playoff pricing can be a little looser, but he still racked up 31 touches last week. Over the past three weeks, he hasn’t been under 25 total touches and that includes 12 receptions. New Orleans does check in as the number two ranked DVOA against the run and the seventh-fewest rushing yards allowed. hey also controlled the backs in the passing game with just 61 receptions allowed, fourth-fewest. With so many other big backs on the slate, I wonder where Monty slots in ownership-wise. It might not be high enough.

WR – It’s be a very volatile back half of the season for Allen Robinson. Since Week 8, he’s had five weeks under 20 DK (what you need for 3x at his current salary) but he’s also had a 30 point effort and 27 point effort mixed in. If you’ve read for most of the year, you know that Saints corner Marshon Lattimore hasn’t been a corner we’ve feared. Over 83 targets, he’s allowed a 14.2 YPR, 100.3 passer rating and a 1.90 pPT. A-Rob seems underpriced and could go off in the Vegas game script, I just think it’s smart to realize what he’s been for this year. P.S. someone get this man a quarterback for once in his career!

We’ll update this end of things when we know more but Darnell Mooney is questionable and may not play. If he does, he’s going to be on my radar as a punt facing a good deal of Janoris Jenkins. Opposite of Lattimore, Jenkins has allowed a 13.6 YPR and a 1.70 pPT. If Mooney is out, Anthony Miller is likely going to be very popular as a salary saver. Miller grinder a 12.8% target share on the year and if Mooney’s 16.5% share is out, Miller should be in a prime spot to benefit.

TE – Since the bye week, Cole Kmet has not played under 70% of the snaps and has been more toward the 90% mark the past three games. The rookie is on the field a ton, and that’s always such a big factor when we look for punts. Jimmy Graham has poached touchdowns to a very annoying degree, but Kmet has 33-19 targets in that time span. Graham has the touchdown lead at 3-1 but I’d rather take the snaps and targets in this price range. New Orleans had issues at times with tight ends as well, allowing them to score nine times, tied for fifth-most in the league.

D/ST – I suppose the Bears defense is about as low as we can be comfortable playing, although I don’t love them. New Orleans only turned the ball over 17 times all year, and Chicago forced just 18. The way New Orleans looked down the stretch and with their injuries/underperformers, Chicago could pay off in this spot.

Cash – Monty, Kmet as a punt, D/ST

GPP – A-Rob, Trubisky, Mooney if active

Saints

QB – You see Drew Brees in a playoff game at $5,700 and you feel like you have to play him, but there’s been some questions about him since coming back from injury. The TD:INT ratio stands at 6:3 which isn’t that great for Brees to start with. He’s been under 240 passing yards in two of three and has been living on the touchdowns, with three scores in two games. Brees just hasn’t passed the eye test that much and the ball doesn’t look great when he throws it. That’s not a huge surprise, as Brees was already 36th in air yards per attempt. The Bears are 13th in DVOA against the pass and even when he was healthy in the first matchup, Brees didn’t hit 20 DK. I’m not convinced we need to try to get him right, but the price is messing with me.

RB – We should see Alvin Kamara get back in time for this game, and you have to imagine that the NFL made sure the Saints played Sunday instead of Saturday. On the off chance he doesn’t play, Latavius Murray would be a lock at $4,500. Let’s figure on Kamara playing and with Brees back in, we know that Kamara will get targeted. Kamara had a 22.9% target share on the season and finished at 107 total. Chicago was second in DVOA against the run but gave up over 2,000 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns. We know that on DK, Kamara is close to matchup-proof because of how many receptions he racks up.

WR – It appears Michael Thomas is back for this game and $6,300 has to be as low as he’s been since his rookie year. He only played seven games this year, but when he was active MT accounted for a 28.1% target share and a 43.6% air yards share. That’s way too much of an offense to be this low, especially with how many times MT could be targeted. The offense is going to flow through him and Kamara, as both could see 10+ looks. Thomas will see probably a mix of Jaylon Johnson and Kyle Fuller. They have played well with a pPT not over 1.80, a passer rating no over 90% and Johnson has allowed just a 56.8% catch rate. We just need to keep an eye on the health of Thomas heading into this game.

Emmanuel Sanders will go back to being third fiddle in the passing game, and still have a tougher matchup against either corner not covering Thomas. Even with Thomas missing nine games, Sanders still din’t break 20% in target share, and that’s a worry. If he’s only gong to get 5-6 targets against the Bears, he’s not likely to be the best play.

TE – Playing Jared Cook depends on what weapons the Saints have available in this game. If everyone is healthy, I think he takes a bit of a hit. I’m not sure this is the truest measure considering how the season went, but Cook did lead the team in EZ targets with nine and tied for the lead in RZ looks. What’s somewhat interesting is the Bears let up 12 touchdowns to tight ends this year, third-most. They were also in the bottom six in receptions and yardage allowed, so this is a soft matchup. He got them the first game with a 5/51/1, but keep in mind that MT was still out as well. The price likely keeps me mostly off Cook.

D/ST – The Saints can bring the heat, racking up the fifth-highest pressure rate and 45 sacks on the season. Getting to Trubisky should lead to mistakes and New Orleans was a top 10 unit in DVOA on the year. I just don’t know if we can afford the highest-priced difference today.

CAsh – Kamara, Thomas

GPP – Brees, Cook, Sanders, D/ST

Browns at Steelers, O/U of 47.5 (Steelers -6)

Browns

QB – Baker Mayfield wound up with a solid game last week but he was scuffling early. If I felt better about the ceiling, I might be willing to take a shot but that ceiling is really in question. He’ll be down Joel Bonito, one of his offensive lineman in this one and head coach Kevin Stefanski due to Covid. The Steelers defense is missing corner Joe Haden, but they welcome back all the over stars that sat out last week. Baker doesn’t look like he’s anything special by the stats. He finished the year with a 0.45 pDB, 18th in the league to go with the 18th most passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Pittsburgh ended the season first in DVOA against the pass and had a 22:18 TD:INT ratio. Only the Dolphins had fewer touchdowns allowed with the same interceptions. Out of the bottom rung options, I have them ranked Brees/Baker/Trubisky.

RB – Nick Chubb missed the first game against the Steelers but he tried to make up for it with 108 rushing yards last week and a touchdown on just four carries. Pittsburgh looks tough with a fifth-ranked DVOA against the run but I’m not sure that’s totally reality. They allowed over 110 rushing yards per game (11th best) but have been gouged for 154 per contest over the past three weeks. They are vulnerable on the ground with all their missing linebackers. Chubb doesn’t have the target share that we prefer in this price range at just 5.2% but he’s been doing just fine without it. If you fade Henry, playing a duo including Dobbins and Chubb could be a somewhat unique combo. Kareem Hunt is really not the player we want on this slate. There’s too many backs that could get 20+ touches to go after one that has 10-12 touches in their future.

WR – I may not be in love with Baker, but I think a least one of the receivers is going to have a big day. Jarvis Landry is still way too cheap for his role, flirting with a nearly 30% target share since the Odell Beckham injury. Landry is running the majority from the slot, which would leave him on Mike Hilton for a lot of the game. Hilton has been solid over 52 targets with just a 59.6% catch rate allowed and a 1.60 pPT. However, Jarvis under $6,000 doesn’t make much sense.

A player I really want to have in some GPP’s is Rashard Higgins. With Haden out, that opens up a lot on the boundary. Perhaps the Steelers have Steven Nelson shadow him, but I’m not sure I’d make that bet. Even if they do, Nelson has allowed a 13.6 YPR and a 1.90 pPT. Higgins is going to have some opportunity here and that secondary has shown some issues. Since OBJ has been down, Higgins has a 30.7% air yards share, tops on the team.

TE – I can never really decide on Austin Hooper. Every time I’ve kind of liked him this year, it hasn’t worked out. It’s not a sparkling matchup either as the Steelers tied for the fewest touchdowns allowed to the position. Hooper does have an 18.5% target share since OBJ has been hurt but the 6.9 aDOT isn’t exciting. I think he’s fine, but I’m not going out of my way to play him.

D/ST – They can be worth a punt, depending how you feel about the Steelers offense. They jumped to life playing the Colts and maybe that’s all they needed to wake up. However, Pittsburgh has struggled mightily in the past few weeks. Cleveland does boast Myles Garrett and 38 sacks on the year to go with 21 turnovers. I lean towards not playing them, since their secondary can sabotage things.

Cash – Chubb, Landry

GPP – Baker, Higgins, Hooper, D/ST

Steelers

QB – It seemingly took forever, but we got a ceiling game from Ben Roethlisberger the last time out, with 28.5 DK against the Colts. Cleveland finished the season ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass, while giving up the 12th most passing yards and tied for the sixth-most passing touchdowns at 30. Is Ben a risky play? Yes, but he’s really got upside to tap into this game. The Steelers have no running game to speak of at all, finishing 28th in attempts and dead last in rushing yards per game. I’m hard pressed to think why Big Ben won’t throw 40+ times here, and if the week off helped rest his arm he could be dangerous. Ben was only 22nd in pDB at 0.42 but still finished eighth in touchdowns in just 15 games.

RB – Those stats I just quoted about the Steelers run game? Yeah, doesn’t exactly make me want to go click on James Conner. He played 64% of the snaps and this is still mostly his backfield, it’s just not very good. Conner is might be a cheap way to get 12+ touches but it is an ugly route to take. He likely has to score to make it worth playing him even at $5,000. I will say that Cleveland finished 19th in DVOA against the run, so this isn’t the worst matchup he could have. The Steelers just haven’t given you much reason to believe he pays off.

WR – Give me all the Diontae Johnson. I mean, this isn’t news if you know me but just look at what he’s done in the last two games with Big Ben. Diontae was benched in the Buffalo game for drops in Week 14, and then responded with 16 receptions on 27 targets. TWENTY. SEVEN. In two games. Ben played terribly in the Bengals game and Diontae still managed 19.9 DK points. He led the team in targets at 144 and the target share was almost 23%. Best yet, Cleveland normally doesn’t use Denzel Ward to shadow so Diontae gets a lot of Terrance Mitchell. He was targeted 107 times and allowed a 105.0 passer rating.

Ward will see a lot of Chase Claypool, who has the highest aDOT on the team at 13.2 and no other starter is particularly close. Both Claypool and Johnson had air yard shares over 25%, but Claypool is going to be volatile just like he was all year. JuJu Smith-Schuster is always the forgotten man for me, because I’m just playing Diontae. JuJu finished with just 14 more PPR points on the season despite playing almost 200 more snaps. That’s over three games of action. Kevin Johnson plays the slot for Cleveland and has allowed a 69.8% catch rate and a 107.6 passer rating over 63 targets. If you want to double stack Ben, JuJu and Diontae are the players to go with in the receiving corps.

TE – Another way to get unique is playing Eric Ebron. He’s activated off the Covid list and had the second-most RZ targets on the season at 16. The 14.9% target share doesn’t look too shabby either and the pricing is really reasonable. Cleveland didn’t play well against the position, allowing 10 touchdowns and in the bottom six in receptions and yards allowed. If you’re living in the mid-range at tight end, Ebron is my first choice.

D/ST – The Steelers led the league in pressure rate, sacks, and finished second in turnovers forced. Mayfield wasn’t under pressure a lot at just 17.7% on the year, but Pittsburgh can still create havoc. The Browns also had just 16 giveaways, so Pittsburgh is only really a spend for me if I’m making no other sacrifices.

Cash – Diontae, Ebron

GPP – Ben, JuJu, Claypool, Conner, D/ST

Core Four

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NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Saturday

For the first year ever, we have a whopping six plays games on the NFL slate this week? With the sites doing more for the single day contests, we’re gong to split ours up into Saturday and Sunday. All the information is still plenty workable for the six game slate but we have plenty to do for the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Saturday!

Colts at Bills, O/U of 51 (Bills -6.5)

Colts

QB – Of the six quarterbacks on the slate, Philip Rivers is fifth-cheapest and that alone gets him on the map. Getting the game script right is important. If the Bills are consistently putting up points, Rivers could be a veritable bargain in catch-up mode. He needs the volume as he was just 20th in pDB at 0.43. Rivers ended up ninth in passing yards on the tenth-most attempts just out of volume alone. Buffalo ended the year 12th in DVOA against the pass and right in the middle of the pack in DK points per game with a 23:15 TD:INT ratio.

The other big question is do we really need the salary relief from Rivers? The DK pricing suggests possibly not. Only one running back is over $5,900 and only two receivers are over $6,900. I believe the only way you play Rivers is if you think the Bills roll. Even then, you are aiming for the Bills to score and Rivers to not finish with many fewer points than Josh Allen. I’m not convinced those two factors would work together.

RB – One of the best ways to keep Allen and the dynamic Bills offense off the field is to go right back to the well and saddle up Jonathan Taylor. The rookie played a career-high 82% of the snaps last week and had 31 touches. Really, it’s about time. Something clicked for JT in Week 11 because he’s been phenomenal since then. The workload has not been under 16 touches and the DK points have not been under 15.4, with three games above 22 DK.

Taylor gets a soft matchup on paper here as well. Buffalo was only 17th in DVOA against the run, gave up over 2,000 scrimmage yards to running backs and 14 rushing touchdowns (tied for sixth-most). The fear has to be the scoreboard tilting early. I don’t think that happens as I actually think Indy can pull the upset, but Nyheim Hines lurks. Even last week when the Colts had full control, Hines still had six receptions. If they chase, Hines is going to be a great play under $5,000 with his 14.4% target share. My train of thought is to load up on Taylor, but Hines could be a contrarian GPP play.

WR – Now comes the difficult question and it’s “which one of the Colts receivers has the big game this week”? They are all very cheap, as T.Y. Hilton is the most expensive at $5,000. He’s only seeing about 65% of the snaps for the past six weeks or so, but does have an interesting target share. He led the team with an 18.8% share and was the only player with an air yards share over 20% (31.8%). Hilton led in EZ targets, receptions and yards but tied in touchdowns with the next player. He’ll likely see Tre White when he’s on the field and White struggled statistically through the season. He allowed a 13.0 YPR, 1.90 pPR and a 94.5 passer rating. Those numbers have come down recently, so maybe he’s finding his form.

We’ve attacked the Bills slot corner a bunch this year and that matchup would fall on Zach Pascal. He plays the slot about 65% of the time this season and he’s been on the field at least 61% in every single game this year. His target share is only 13.3% on the year, but he’s seen 16 over the past three games. Pascal also led in RZ targets (13) and was second in EZ targets (eight) so the touchdown equity is real for someone this cheap in a good matchup. I will say Taron Johnson looks better stats-wise than I thought. He only allowed a 1.40 pP and a 59.3% catch rate. I still like Pascal at the price, but it was surprising to see Johnson’s stats look solid.

Lastly, Michael Pittman is in the fray as well. This trio can really be difficult to peg from week to week, and they can be frustrating. The game has such a sizable O/U that I don’t want to ignore it totally. Pittman is my last priority since Pascal is barely more expensive and Pittman does appear to be the third wheel. Levi Wallace came on towards the end of the year as well, getting his catch rate below 59%. Two of the past three weeks Pittman’s targets have not gone above three and he hasn’t see double-digit DK since Week 11. It’s not hard to correlate the third receiver getting less work while the lead back has been carrying the mail.

TE – If you forced me to take a tight end from this team, I would grudgingly pick Jack Doyle. Trey Burton has the highest target share on the seasons at 10.7% but Doyle has the same RZ targets at eight and EZ targets at four. Additionally, Doyle has trended towards playing more lately. In the past four weeks, he’s led the tight end room in snap rate and has 14 targets in that time span. Buffalo gave up the most receptions and second-most yards to tight ends this year, so the punt makes sense. I just wouldn’t expect a ton out of Doyle and if he scores, you’re off to the races.

D/ST – My initial reaction before opening the slate was “no” but they might just be too cheap. The Bucs defense will get attention but we can save $1,100 for the seventh ranked DVOA defense in Indy. They had 25 takeaways, fourth in the league and racked up 40 sacks on the second-lowest blitz rate of 17.1%. I’m not suggesting they shut out the Bills but 24-28 points, a turnover or two and a sack or two makes the price work. Is that really too much to ask from the Colts this week?

Cash – Taylor, Pascal, D/ST

GPP – Hines, Rivers, Hilton, Doyle

Bills

QB – Allen is the highest-priced option on the slate and I’m not sure I can argue with that. The dark horse MVP candidate (it’s Aaron Rodgers but that doesn’t diminish Allen) only played a half last week and put up 20.3 DK points. Allen silenced any doubters he had this year, finishing third in passing yards, fifth in touchdowns, second in points per game and fourth in pDB. His deep ball was a weapon at a 43.8% completion rate for 10th best and the clean completion rate was fifth at 78.3%.

One of the best assets Allen brings to the fantasy table is the touchdown equity. He scored 42 total, and finished second in RZ passing attempts and fourth in RZ rushing attempts. Very few quarterbacks are safer bets to find the end zone. Indy is a tough spot on paper at eighth in DVOA against the pass, but you can’t go wrong with Allen at all. The question at the high end is Allen or Tom Brady, which we’ll get to later on.

RB – One of the easiest reasons to point to the passing game and Allen in this one is because we’re not going to want to play the backfield. Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are splitting work and snaps almost equally down the middle. Moss is still my preferred target if going down that low. Prior to Week 17, he rattled off 12, 13 and 13 carries in the previous three games. Contrast that with 10, eight and seven for Singletary and Moss has the edge easily. Singletary does get slightly more receiving work with six receptions to two for Moss, but that’s not a factor we need to make decisions on. The Colts were ninth in DVOA against the run and allowed the third-fewest rush yards on the year. With Allen always a threat to punch in in from the red zone, these are not priority plays for me.

WR – The NFL’s leading receiver (Stefon Diggs) will have his hands full in this one with Xavier Rhodes and I’m not sure I care in the least. There is no denying Rhodes played as one of the best corners in football this year. He was targeted 73 times and finished in the top 20 in just about every metric we look like. He only allowed 38 receptions (16th), 52.1% catch rate allowed (sixth), a 73.9 passer rating (eighth) and a 1.40 pPT (11th). Diggs is just a different player. He led in receptions and yards on the season and is under $8,000. Rhodes is great but I legitimately think Diggs might be un-coverable. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will figure out ways to get the ball to Diggs without fail.

Cole Beasley seems iffy to play in this one and even if he does, John Brown has my attention. Rhodes is going to try and hold Diggs in check but that’s going to leave Brown in some favorable coverages. Brown had a 16.3% target share in his healthy games and a 12.4 aDOT, highest among this trio. If you haven’t read yet, picking on Colts corner Rock Ya-Sin is one of our main targets. Ya-Sin is at a 4.51 forty-yard dash while Brown is 4.34 and has the nickname of “Smoke”. Give me that Smoke.

If Beasley remains out, we can still consider Gabriel Davis as a punt. No player had more EZ targets than his 10 and he trailed only Diggs in RZ work at 10 as well. I do think we only go there if Beasley is out, but this is the first game so we’ll know in plenty of time. I would also prefer Davis than Pittman in this same game.

*Update* Beasley is questionable, but seems on track to play. I’m still in love with Brown though.

TE – If we’re going to the punt tier, you can make a small case for Dawson Knox. We can cast out the eight targets from last week with varied playing time, but he’s been more involved for a bit now. The last four games have seen him get 19 targets, which isn’t terrible at this price range. Knox was under a 10% share on the season and the matchup does him no favors. They were fifth-best in DK points per game and only gave up three scores all year. I prefer Doyle in this game, as weird as that sounds.

D/ST – I don’t think I can make a compelling case to play the highest-salaried defense here. For starters, the Colts only allowed Rivers to get sacked 19 times total. Secondly, the 15 giveaways were the third-fewest in the league. I do give the Bills credit for being a ball-hawking unit with the third-most turnovers forced and they racked up 38 sacks. They have the splash play ability, but the Colts don’t present a lot of opportunity to make it happen.

Cash – Allen, Diggs, Brown

GPP – Moss, D/ST, Knox

Rams at Seahawks, O/U of 42.5 (Seahawks -3)

Rams

QB – We’re going to need more clarity here. Jared Goff did get in a limited practice, but that’s it with a thumb injury so far. John Wolford would be the starter if Goff cannot go, and he was just serviceable in his start on Sunday. He was asked to throw 38 times and managed just 231 yards, to go with 56 yards rushing and one pick. With the Seattle defense coming around lately, this isn’t my favorite spot to attack no matter who is under center. It is the lowest O/U on the slate and Goff managed just a 0.40 pDB, 25th in the league. That’s not likely to hold up to the Brady’s or the Allen’s on this slate.

*Update* We still don’t know for sure who’s starting but I’m not interested regardless.

RB – Cam Akers is wildly too cheap and is likely to be chalk that I’m happy to eat on this slate. The box score from last week doesn’t look all that good but the touches certainly do at 25! If we’re getting 20+ touches at this salary we have to be attention and be interested. His last five games have been basically everything we want out of a workhorse back. Akers has played over 60% of the snaps in those games and he’s going to be the man in this backfield. The Rams finished as a top 10 team in rushing attempts on the season so you know Akers will get the touches. Seattle has been good to running backs with the ninth-ranked DVOA and the fourth-fewest yards. The catch is the faced the third-fewest attempts and the Rams won’t be that style of matchup. I’ll take those touches at this price all the time.

WR – We expect Cooper Kupp to be back in this game and I would lean towards him if playing a Rams receiver. The question is does he have good enough quarterback play to pay off his price, and that’s a good one. Last week, Robert Woods didn’t clear 7.6 DK points and that’s a bit frightening. We’ve talked about it all year that Woods and Kupp are basically identical at 130 targets from Woods and 125 for Kupp, with Kupp having one fewer game. The receptions are within two, the yards are within 38 and everything is just a mirror image. I lean Kupp at that point since he’s cheaper and should have the better matchup.

Woods gets Shaquill Griffin for the most point and Griffin has been the best corner for Seattle. Through 95 targets, Griffin has only allowed a 1.60 pPT and a 91.4 passer rating. Nothing about that is totally spectacular but Kupp still gets the easier spot just because he’s not on Griffin. Seattle has had issues in the secondary a lot this year, so the slot corner isn’t exactly set. The only way I’d be interested is if Goff is active.

TE – Tyler Higbee can drive me nuts. He has ability and there’s appeal there on paper, but the Rams just don’t really utilize him. He runs a route on just 56.7% of his snaps, which is 29th in the league. It’s difficult to get excited for him and he’s in no man’s land for pricing. It’s easier to just spend a little more or just a little less and punt. Three of his five touchdowns came in one game at the beginning of the season and he’s broken 10 DK (3x at this price) just three times all season.

D/ST – If Indy makes you uncomfortable, try and find $700 more for the Rams. The perception is it’s scary to play a defense against the Seattle offense but that’s not exactly the case. The Rams have combined for 19 DK in the previous two matchups on the year with 11 total sacks. Considering Seattle finished third in sacks given up, that makes total sense. The Rams forced 22 turnovers and wound up second in sacks with 53. It’s down to Seattle or Indy in my eyes.

Cash – Akers, D/ST

GPP – Kupp, Woods, Higbee

Seahawks

QB – I’m not sure I’ve ever felt less of a need to play a quarterback with 40 touchdown passes and over 4,200 yards but that’s Russell Wilson this week. Be it by design or opposing defenses figuring things out, Wilson hasn’t gone over 263 passing yards since Week 9 and he’s only thrown 12 touchdown passes in that time frame (eight games). Somehow, Russ is seventh in pDB, sixth in points per game, second in passing touchdowns and ninth in yardage. He does have the sixth-most RZ attempts on the season and is seventh in pressured completion rate at 47.6%. So much of that is front loaded that this is a concerning trend. With Allen only $900 more and Brady still sitting there, I think Russ takes a backseat on this slate.

RB – In the same train of thought as Akers, Chris Carson seems awfully cheap. The fact that he hasn’t had a massive game lately makes his price very reasonable but he’s been the horse, with at least 13 touches in every game for the past four weeks. Seattle wants to be more balanced and Carson is going to get touches again this week, and the salary probably doesn’t really match the workload. The biggest issue is this is not a good spot, as the Rams are third in DVOA against the run. In the past game against LA, Carson put up 10.9 DK without a score on 19 touches. I’ll take that chance at this salary that he finds the end zone this time around.

WR – I am very torn on what to do here with the Seattle receivers. Part of me says that the Rams (and Jalen Ramsey) won’t contain D.K. Metcalf all three games. The other side of that coin is Metcalf has really cooled off at the same time Russ had. Only once has he hit over 18 DK and three of those eight games have been under double-digits. Ramesy only allowed a 1.30 pPT and a 79.7 passer rating, both in the top 12 in the league. Additionally, Tyler Lockett and Metcalf have been a lot closer than they were. Lockett led in targets by one, they tied in EZ targets and Lockett had the reception lead as well. That would seem to say that Lockett is the play here, but that’s not exactly true either.

We want Lockett to hit 21 points for 3x here and his 16 game record this year says that is not all that likely. Only four times has he done it and when he does, he typically does it in nuclear fashion. Lockett has been massively boom or bust with seven games under 10 DK. He’ll probably face Troy Hill out of the slot an awful lot. Hill has been very good this year with a 1.40 pPT, 8.7 YPR (second-best) and just a 74.2 passer rating allowed.

TE – I wouldn’t play Jacob Hollister in this game as he’s not been a priority target in the offense even since Greg Olsen got hurt. He does not have a game over 10 DK other than once and the 9.9% target share over the past eight weeks is not encouraging.

D/ST – Seattle haș been playing so much better lately but they could be a little overlooked. That may not be the case if Goff isn’t playing but since Week 8, they haven’t been under three DK points. The 22 turnovers forced and 46 sacks turned into respectable numbers. The 285 yards passing allowed did finish 29th on the year, but they were over 350 towards the middle of the season. The pass defense has been towards the upper end lately, and there’s nothing wrong with playing them but I do prefer the Rams.

Cash – Carson, D/ST

GPP – Russ, Metcalf, Lockett

Buccaneers at Washington, O/U of 45 (Buccaneers -9)

Buccaneers

QB – To me, the decision on quarterback is between Allen and Tom Brady. I lean Allen if at all possible and think he’s going to be chalk. Don’t get me wrong, Brady beat up on some trash can pass defenses down the stretch when he went over 26 DK in every game in the last three weeks. The stats speak for themselves over the course of the season. Brady finished with 40 touchdowns, 10th in pDB at 0.53, ninth in points per game, third in passing yards and first in air yards per attempt. It’s almost like good receivers allow you to do more than dink and dunk passing.

Here’s the catch statistically and narrative-wise. The statistical catch is Brady has an Achilles heel (as much as a player of his caliber can) and has had it for a few years – pressure. Brady finished 29th in completion rate at 33.7% and that is the bugaboo in this game. Washington only blitzes at the 13th highest rate but has the fifth-most sacks and the fourth-highest pressure rate. That could leave Brady not doing exactly what you want him to do.

The narrative that will make the rounds in a big way is WFT defensive lineman Chase Young saying “I want Tom Brady” after the Philly game. Let me tell you Mr. Young (who was phenomenal in his rookie year) – no. No, you do not. Brady and Coach Bruce Arians are going to make them pay for that one if they can. I think Brady is a very strong play, but the WFT defense is second in DVOA against the pass this year. It’s a very interesting spot that could go multiple ways, which is why Allen is my number one quarterback on the slate in a vacuum.

RB – It’s likely to be the RoJo Show on Saturday as Ronald Jones came back from missing two games and played 54% of the snaps with 12 attempts on the ground. It was a bit of a bummer that he wasn’t targeted in the passing game, which is why I believe Akers and Carson are both better options. Washington is 11th in DVOA against the run and if Jones gets around 15 touches, he’s still a bargain. I think the Bucs might actually run a little bit more than the perception is. They likely can’t just have Brady drop back 40-45 times with no threat of the run game because of the front seven of Washington. Brady will try to prove that Young was wrong, but that doesn’t exactly mean he’s dropping back 60 times. Jones will probably be a pivot to other backs, but not a priority.

WR – One of the bigger injuries to watch on this slate is Mike Evans. If he were to be out, the changes the dynamic of the Tampa offense and puts a lot more work on Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. It’s not hard to see the upside for those two without Evans as they both went for over 30 DK in last week’s game when Evans left very early. If Evans is active, he’s really mis-priced as the second Tampa receiver. Even with leaving super early, Evans was the man with AB in the lineup. He led in targets, RZ targets, EZ targets, yards and touchdowns since Week 9. That’s just indisputable at this point.

Evans faces Kendall Fuller, who has been very good this season. He’s in the top 30 in pPT, passer rating and catch rate allowed on the year, not to mention YPR at 11.5. Considering those numbers came over 104 targets, that is pretty impressive. Evans does have a big advantage in size, as Fuller is just 5’11” and you can definitely see Brady just putting the ball around him and letting Evans do the work. That doesn’t even count the RZ work, which is going to be difficult for Fuller to defend.

AB faces likely Ronald Darby and that is massive advantage to Brown. He allowed a 13.5 YPR and was targeted 113 times for 65 receptions. Browns doesn’t look like terribly far off from peak AB at the moment. Five of his eight games have been 13 DK or higher, walking off the street with no football or being in the offense. That’s impressive and he’s going to torch Darby at least once. It will just be a matter of Brady getting the ball there.

Godwin has an easier matchup in the slot against Jimmy Moreland, who allowed a 65.8% catch rate on the year. If Evans is in, I likely don’t pay up for him this week and just play AB and Evans. Pretending everyone is full strength, I have them as Evans, Brown and then Godwin in priority.

*Update* We’re still not sure on Evans, so hopefully we get more of an update before this slate kicks off we’ll know. I think Diggs is a stone cold lock, so Evans and AB would be the easiest ways to get exposure here.

TE – I feel like I always struggle with Rob Gronkowski. When a player is almost $4,000 at tight end and he has to score to pay off, it can be dicey. He does sit second in RZ and EZ targets on the team, so the equity is high. Washington was just average in touchdowns allowed with seven, so a guy like Gronkowski sits where he has in the past few weeks for me. I’d play him in a Brady stack so the touchdowns are 10 point scores, but I’m much happier to play the receivers with much higher reception chances.

D/ST – Since the Bucs have the second-highest pressure rate and 48 sacks on the year, they have to be considered as well. Washington is going to have to play really well up front, because their quarterback is not going to be very mobile to get out of trouble. If you can afford them, by all means you can play them but I don’t think they are the slam dunk option on the slate.

Cash – Evans, Brady, AB, D/ST

GPP – Gronk, Godwin, RoJo

Washington

QB – Bringing up the rear in salary is Alex Smith and he really should be. He simply has not shown any type of ceiling, certainly to contend with the Brady’s and Allen’s of the slate. It’s not even like we have to jam in a ton of high-priced studs to want to take the risk on a quarterback like this. Smith has only played part-time this season, but he’s still 30th in yards per attempt, 34th in points per game and threw just six touchdowns. His completion rate under pressure is worse than Brady’s at 35th, 27.5%. That could rear it’s ugly head since the Bucs have the second-highest pressure rate and the highest on this slate. Even if Washington trails in a negative game script, I would just rather play Rivers. With him playing hurt right now, it’s really killed his mobility (little that he had) and he has to get the ball out fast.

*Update* Smith may not even be able to go, as Taylor Heinicke took all the first-team reps. Don’t go this far down for salary.

RB – This really projects as a major J.D. McKissic game. Washington is a heavy underdog and Tampa boasts the best rushing defense in football. It was encouraging to see Antonio Gibson play about 60% of the snaps and log 20 touches on Sunday night, but even then McKissic saw eight targets. On top of that, no team gave up more receptions to backs than Tampa at 101. With the pressure coming from all angles this game, it’s not hard to see why McKissic could get plenty of work through the air. I just don’t think we need to go with Gibson against the number one ranked DVOA against the run and the defense that gave up the fewest rushing yards. I still prefer Akers for $300 more but if you don’t want to go Carson, McKissic makes sense to me.

WR – There’s really only two options here. The first is the one we all know and love and that’s Terry McLaurin. Through his 15 games played, he racked up a 25.5% target share and a 42% air yards share in this offense. He led in receptions by seven over McKissic and lead in yards with over 1,100. Only one player had more than his seven and 12 EZ and RZ targets, and he is the clear alpha in this passing game. Corner Jamel Dean had some ups and downs, but finished with an 89.7 passer rating and a 1.50 pPT. I prefer the Bucs receivers, but McLaurin could be a dynamite GPP option.

Cam Sims checks in as an option in large part because he doesn’t come off the field. He’s played 94% of the snaps or more in the past four months and has 24 targets in that time span.

TE – It can sometimes be a challenge to play the highest salaried tight end, especially when they’re not a big name. Logan Thomas has turned into a consistent player lately and since Week 12, he hasn’t been under double-digit DK points with two games over 30 DK. Since that game, Thomas is neck and neck in target share at 23% with McLaurin for the lead. He also leads in RZ targets at nine and EZ targets at five.

You have to wonder if things are starting to click for the converted quarterback. This is easily the most reps he’s had at the NFL level and tight end can have a steep learning curve. This could be the beginning of a mini-breakout and the Bucs didn’t sparkle against tight ends this year. They allowed nine touchdowns, over 800 yards and 86 receptions. I don’t think he’s the primary target on the slate, but if you get there and love the lineup he’s a great option.

D/ST – I can see a path here, but it might be the riskiest of the bunch. We’ve talked about how good the front is for Washington already, and they’re one of the defenses that can give up points and still pay off due to low salary and splash plays. They forced 23 turnovers on the year and just missed on 50 sacks. If they can consistently get to Brady, it’s easy to see where they get 7-9 DK points. Every defense has some risk this week, and the Colts and Washington could be interesting options of Seattle and LA.

Cash – Thomas

GPP – McLaurin, D/ST, McKissic, Sims

Core Four

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Cam Akers, Johnathan Taylor

I can’t find enough reasons to fade the Allen/Diggs connection on this slate. We can rotate in John Brown for double-stack opportunities. Akers is just too cheap, and Taylor is going to be a lock in cash. One thing I will point out – in a three max GPP, I’m going to use the entire Colts backfield. Shouts to Discord user Cowabunga for the idea. In the three max, I’ll have one with Taylor, one with Taylor AND Hines, then one with Hines. There’s a reasonable path for both Colts back working out in the same game script and will be underutilized on the three game slate.

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NFL Game By Game Breakdown Week 17

It’s Sunday and you know what that means…Rest In Power Mr. Brodie Lee.

We have the biggest NFL slate of the season ahead of us and this one is a different animal. We’re not only parsing through the matchups and stats like normal, but we’re deciding what backups could be worth playing. Some teams are resting starters, some could rest them mid-game and others are full go. This is a difficult slate in my eyes, as the volatility is cranked to 11. Those factors are very important this week so let’s get right into the work and figure out the paths to take for NFL Game by Game Breakdown Week 17.

Jets at Patriots, O/U of 40 (Patriots -3)

Jets

QB – Sam Darnold is under $5,000 but man is it hard to take him seriously. We have 30 quarterbacks on the slate and can only play one. With an 8:9 TD:INT ratio through 11 games, I’m not sure I can find much of a reason. I suppose I get the logic of just 15 DK points is 3x and the Patriots are 19th in DVOA, but still. I’d almost rather play a backup. That’s not an indictment on Darnold, it’s hating Adam Gase. The 0.32 pDB is 34th in the league and he’s averaging under 12 points per game. There’s some risk here even at the lowest price we can imagine.

RB – We always like some cheap running backs and the fact Frank Gore will miss this game means we have the door open for La’Mical Perine. He had 10 touches in his first game back and that was with Gore hogging 15 touches on his own. New England has fallen all the way to dead last in DVOA against the run so there’s room for Perine to pay off. It would just be very “Jets 2020” to play Perine and see Ty Johnson get the work. Just get Perine 15-20 touches to see what you have.

Well, there’s going to be some text with strikethrough in this article. Perine is now on the Covid list, so Ty Johnson, come on down! You’re the next contestant on “Jets Feature Back Roulette”! In all honesty, Johnson may not be a terrible play. In the one game he got touches, he produced 22 DK. With the Patriots last in DVOA against the run, I can honestly see him being a nice combo with high-priced studs. Josh Adams should serve as the backup, but hasn’t recorded a touch in the past two weeks.

WR – It looks like the Darnold to Jamison Crowder connection is back. This really isn’t just chasing his monster game, Crowder is not nearly expensive enough if he’s getting nine targets a game. In three of the past four, he’s had at least seven and the Patriots defense is not anything super scary. Granted, neither is the Jets offense but Crowder functions extremely well within it. We know he rolls in the slot, about 70% of the time. That leaves him on Jonathan Jones, who has allowed a 68.2% catch rate and a 102.1 passer rating. He’s still pretty cheap after a blowup game last week.

Breshad Perriman didn’t catch one of his six targets and Denzel Mims seems to fade when Darnold plays. I’ll pass on both of them this week. It’s hard enough to play Jets and they are still the worst offense in football.

TE – New York seemed to have remembered that Chris Herndon is on the team as he’s had four targets in each of the last two weeks. It’s too little, too late because there’s no way you can trust his seasonal target share which is still under 8.5%.

D/ST – $2,300 against the Patriots terrible offense? Sign me up. They are a premier punt and have forced 19 turnovers to go with 28 sacks. New England is 28th in points per game and are under 20 per contest.

Cash – Crowder, D/ST, Johnson

GPP – None

Patriots

QB – We’re probably going to see a mix of Cam Newton and Jarret Stidham this week and….I can’t. Cam is only going to be valuable if he scores on the ground mostly and he has a 5:10 TD:INT ratio through 14 games. That is unfathomable in today’s NFL. If he gets yanked, Stidham has been roundly terrible in all of his limited action and the Patriots are not built to pass the ball. Before pitching a quarter of relief, Stidham had 37 career attempts with a 2:3 TD:INT ratio and a completion rate barely above 54%. This situation is gross, no matter who the opponent is.

RB – It appears that Damien Harris could make it back for this game, and he’ll likely be the lead back as he’s rushed 137 times on the season through 10 games. However, the Jets are in the top 10 in DVOA against the run. Harris also only has 19 RZ attempts to 41 for Cam, so the odds of touchdowns are pretty low. If he was to be out, Sony Michel and James White have done little to nothing all season long and I wouldn’t bank on that changing this week.

*Update* Harris has been ruled out for this game.

WR – There’s no receiver worth playing here past maybe a flier on Jakobi Meyers in deep GPP. He does lead the team in target share at 22.6% and air yards share at 34.8% but that’s about where the good metrics stop. He’s only hit 3x at this salary once since Week 10 and his quarterback situation is one of the worst in the league. Meyers will likely spend most of his day against Arthur Maulet who has allowed a 1.70 pPT on 33 targets. Meyers is the preferred option of the passing game but he’s not super appealing.

Damiere Byrd could be on the radar on a smaller slate, but as of now there’s no reason for him. Neither receiver is used in the RZ as they’ve combined for seven targets across 18 combined games. If we felt confident the Pats would trail, maybe there’s an argument. There’s other options even in this price range that are more intriguing.

TE – Devin Asiasi has yet to record a reception and Dalton Keane has three games under his belt this year. Even though the Jets are the stone worst team agains tight ends, the Patriots don’t seem to have anyone to exploit it.

D/ST – They’re on the board because Jets but they’re really expensive. I can’ see myself using them, although they have 20 turnovers forced. The 21 sacks speak loudly and so does the depth they are missing on this side of the ball.

Cash – None

GPP – Meyers, D/ST

Vikings at Lions, O/U of 53.5 (Vikings -6.5)

Vikings

QB – The Vikings can’t make the playoffs but this team is fighting for who has a job there the next season. We should expect full effort and Kirk Cousins has to have our attention. The Lions are putrid at every level of defense and Cousins should be able to do whatever he wants. The only small concern is volume, but if the Vikes can put the boots to this team they’re going to. We’ve talked all year about Cousins having some efficiency with his 0.51 pDB and sitting eighth in touchdowns despite the 17th most passing attempts. For his salary, this is the spot we want to target. Even if he throws 25-28 times, he should hit 3x without much of a fuss. Detroit is dead last in DVOA against the pass.

RB – Talk about doing whatever you want, Dalvin Cook closes the season in the smash spots of smash spots. We don’t have any reason to think he gets under 20 touches in this contest and he destroyed them for 42 DK the first time around. That style of outcome is well in play this week, as Detroit is just 26th in DVOA against the run. They’ve allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to backs and the only argument here is Dalvin gets pulled early. I don’t really expect that so I’m happy to play him.

Very sadly, Cook will not be with the team after a death in the family. Alexander Mattison is still not totally cleared of a concussion so he’s not a lock to play. We could be looking at Mike Boone as a lead back against the Lions at minimum priced and I could be interested at that point. He’ll be in the main Vikings offense and the Lions defense couldn’t stop a college team right now I don’t think.

*Update* Mattison is cleared and ready to go for Sunday. Maybe he’ll be chalk but I’m not sure I want to go after it. We have at least one other back that is cheaper and will have the backfield to himself.

WR – If you don’t think Minnesota has to throw all that much, I’d probably lean Adam Thielen over Justin Jefferson. Neither is a bad play at all but Thielen has every chance to catch at least his 15th touchdown of the year, if not more. They continue to be identical by most metrics. The air yards and targets shares are within 1% of each other, the receptions are only nine apart and the PPR points are only seven apart. The difference is Thielen gets his via touchdowns (14). He’s been targeted 19 times in the EZ this year, tied for the most. Jefferson has the yardage advantage to a major degree but only has eight EZ targets and nine inside the RZ. There’s not a single corner in this secondary that is even average, so I don’t care in the least who lines up on who.

TE – It might be chasing a little bit, but Irv Smith is still too cheap since he’s got the gig to himself. Kyle Rudolph is on the IR and Smith saw nine targets and caught two touchdowns last game. Those outcomes aren’t likely but he’s also still under $4,000 which is a great price for a tight end that can score. I think there might be better values for the projected game script however.

D/ST – I won’t be going to the Vikings when the Jets are cheaper. You could perhaps twist my arm and say the Lions could have a backup, but so do the Patriots. That’s the backup that couldn’t beat out Cam at any point this year. They have forced 20 turnovers but have just 22 sacks. Let’s see who’s playing for the Lions.

Cash – Cousins, Thielen, Jefferson, Mattison

GPP – Smith

Lions

QB – I know that Matthew Stafford wants to play this week but I can’t see why the Lions would let him. He’s beyond banged up with rib, thumb and now ankle injuries. The risk of him getting pulled at some point would seem to be pretty high. He did have an awful game the first matchup with the Vikings with just 10 DK points. To their credit, the Vikings have climbed to 13th in DVOA against the pass which is a big difference from the start of the year. Stafford is just 20th in pDB at 0.43, 24th in points per game, 15th in touchdown passes and 13th in RZ attempts. That’s an awful lot of average for Safford with additional injury risk.

RB – If D’Andre Swift gets full run in this game, he’s going to torch Minnesota. He generated 70 scrimmage yards against a very good front seven last week with a second and third string quarterback. The Vikings do not boast one of the better front seven’s in football and it shows. They are down to 27th in DVOA against the run. I wouldn’t expect another six touchdown day against this defense but we don’t need six. Swift has a layered skill set which is always awesome to target in DFS and has at least three receptions in every game he’s played except one.

WR – I really am looking at Marvin Jones again, even though he flopped badly on Saturday. I simply can’t fathom why he got THREE targets but I think that’s a blip on the radar. He’s been close to a 30% share these past few weeks and the Vikings secondary has matchups he can exploit. I would feel much more comfortable if Stafford was healthy but the salary is too low. He still leads the team in EZ targets and is second only to Hockenson in RZ targets. Cameron Dantzler has allowed a 2.10 pPT and a 112.4 passer rating, so Detroit should wise up and target this man.

We had some interest in Danny Amendola and Mohamed Sanu on the three game slate but on a sprawling one, I’m not going there. They are no better than fourth or fifth in the pecking order for targets after Jones, Swift and Hockenson.

TE – T.J. Hockenson is really the same as he ever was – a safe cash option and really nothing more. He might even be expensive at this point and if Stafford can’t make the game, I would have little interest. When a high end is closing in on $5,000, I want at least 18 DK to play him. Hockenson hasn’t even cleared 17 DK yet at all his year. Minnesota has been solid to the tight ends this year, slightly above average for DK points per game allowed and just five scores.

D/ST – The Lions can’t generate turnovers at just 12 or sacks at 21. That’s not going to do you much good, even at the salary. I’m becoming pretty firm on the Jets in anything under about the $3,000 price range.

Cash – Swift

GPP – Jones

Dolphins at Bills, O/U of 42.5 (Bills -3.5)

Dolphins

QB – The only real choice here has to be Ryan Fitzpatrick. He never really deserved to get benched in the first place and the offense just isn’t as good with Tua under center. This is the kind of cheap player I’m after on this slate. He should be in for the whole game because the easiest way for Miami to clinch a playoff spot is simply win. That’s going to be a big focus and FitzMagic is under $5,500 against a 16th ranked DVOA defense. He already carved them up once this year for 27 DK points and I’m right back to the well here with him. He’s 13th in pDB and first in completion rate under pressure, 58.6%. We’ll see how the other games shake out but he’s a very appealing target.

Covid strikes again. Tua will have to start and my interest level plummets with that. He’s hit 4x at this price range (more of what I want from a cheap quarterback) and just hasn’t been that great for fantasy so far. Tua is just 28th in points per game and 31st in yards per attempt. That’s not good enough for me and I’ll pass. They didn’t want to start him with a playoff berth on the line. That’s not a good endorsement for me to play him.

RB – Welcome back Myles Gaskin. We’ve touched on it before but if the Dolphins have a back that they can use as a workhorse, they’re going to do it. Gaskin played over 75% of the snaps in his return and had 19 touches. Both his touchdowns came on receptions, which is a little weird but he racked up a massive 33.9 DK points. He’s still probably not quite expensive enough, even though he’s not under $6,000 anymore. Buffalo is just 17th in DVOA against the run and Gaskin should once again get all the work he can handle this Sunday. That’s even more true now that Tua is starting.

WR – DeVante Parker is still struggling with a hamstring injury and that’s really got me not looking at him at all. His target share is only 20.8% and the air yards share is under 25%, so there’s nothing overwhelming here. If he’s banged up, I don’t see Miami pushing him to the limits with the playoffs potentially looming next week. I know they need to win for the easy path but the injury management might take the forefront.

If Parker is out, Lynn Bowden is less of a target. We saw last week that Bowden is easier to defend when the receivers aren’t very good around him. That would be the case again, so let’s see how this shakes out on Friday.

*Update* Parker is still limited at practice.

TE – Mike Gesicki came back from missing one game into his normal role as well, being targeted seven times for a 9.4 DK game. I think the fact Fitzpatrick pushes the ball downfield a little more is a big bonus for Gesicki, especially with the receiving corps banged up. His 76.6% route rate is eighth in football and he went scorched Earth on Buffalo in Week 2. Scoring 30 DK in that game is still his high water mark. Buffalo has been hit by the tight end all year with the sixth-most receptions and fourth-most yards. If Parker is out, Gesicki becomes even more of a target.

D/ST – They’re a very good unit but the Buffalo offense is a buzzsaw right now. I won’t play Miami on this slate with so many other spots to pick on.

Cash – Gaskin

GPP – TBD

Bills

QB – I would assume that the Bills will put their best foot forward here to clinch the number two seed. It doesn’t come with a bye week anymore but it’s still nice to be at home until the AFC title game, potentially. That means Josh Allen is in play, just like any other week. He’d be a front-runner for MVP in a lot of years and has accounted for 42 total touchdowns to 15 turnovers. Allen sits fourth in pDB, second in points per game, fifth in touchdown passes, third in yards and second in RZ attempts. The transformation he’s made this year has been stunning and he has among the highest ceilings on the slate, if not the highest. Miami’s defense is very strong, but Allen also hung 37 DK on them the first game.

RB – This continues to be a backfield that I’m not terribly interested in. They split touches and snaps almost literally 50-50 last game and that’s mostly been the story when both are healthy. They kill each other and when guy like Zack Moss scores a touchdown for 12.7 DK, he looks like a bargain. However, the RZ carries are 20 for Devin Singletary, 27 for Moss and 23 for Allen. That’s not leaving either back for a big role, although Moss is three games behind the other two. He remains my favorite if you play one, but neither are really strong targets. Miami has only allowed 1,392 yards even though they rank 23rd in DVOA against the run.

WR – Stefon Diggs is on an absolute tear right now. Since Week 8, he’s not been under seven receptions and has been under 15 DK just once. His last three games have totaled 422 yards and four touchdowns with 30 receptions. He’s one of the best receivers in the league and the Bills are using him as such. Diggs has a 29.9% target share and a 36.0% air yards share. On top of that, he leads the league in receptions and receiving yardage so he’s still priced incredibly low. We typically don’t mess with the Byron Jones and Xavien Howard duo but Diggs is a different player.

Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis could be in play to some extent, but we need the John Brown news first. After we know if he can play, we can figure out the matchups and who we’d want out of this bunch. We now also need Beasley news, as he didn’t practice Thursday.

*Update* Beasley is out for this game but Brown is back in. I don’t think they’ll push him a ton, but he’ll be in line for some snaps to get back into shape before the playoffs get rolling.

TE – One thing that could be overlooked is the increase in the workload for Dawson Knox. One the past four weeks, he has four, four, seven and four targets which is interesting. That’s equated to a 12.3% targets share and the second-most RZ targets on the team. He’s still super cheap and could potentially be a GPP target. Miami has been one of the better teams against tight ends with the seventh-fewest DK points per game allowed and only five touchdowns. Knox is GPP only, but not as thin as he was for most of the year.

D/ST – Buffalo is kind of in no man’s land for me. They’re not super cheap or expensive, but they have generated 22 turnovers and 37 sacks on the year. With all of Tua’s issues so far, turnovers haven’t been one of them. I think we have better point per dollar options.

Cash – Diggs, Allen

GPP – Knox, Brown

Ravens at Bengals, O/U of 44 (Ravens -12.5)

Ravens

QB – Baltimore is another team that will play their starters until the game is won because win and get in is the easiest pathway. That means a full run of Lamar Jackson and if he gets pulled, it’s because he went off and the game is out of reach. Jackson’s down game over the past month has been 22 DK points, which is strong. There’s been some (valid) criticisms of his game this year but when the Ravens needed him most, he’s shown up in spades. He sits third in pDB and seventh in points per game, not too shabby for a “mediocre” season. Among just quarterbacks, he’s taken the lead in carries and yards, with the fourth-most rushing touchdowns and second-most RZ carries. If you spend up, Jackson is one of the primary targets.

RB – I’ll be the first one preaching the gospel about how good J.K. Dobbins is but he’s too expensive on DK. He’s not even being targeted twice per game so far and his value comes totally from rushing yards and touchdowns. That’s a LOT to ask for at this salary as he needs to get to 21 DK. Even with Mark Ingram being totally phased out of the offense, Dobbins is still in a time share with Gus Edwards. He’s yet to clear 15.1 DK in those three weeks with no Ingram nor exceed 15 touches. When a player likely needs two scores to pay off with nothing to fall back on, I’m usually out past MME formats. Even the 20th ranked DVOA against the run isn’t enough to sway me at nearly $7,000.

WR – Marquise Brown always seems so underpriced but he’s probably slightly over, if anything. He and Mark Andrews are the main cogs in this passing game and have target shares right about 24%. Brown easily has the air yards share lead at 37.4% which is always why I want to play him. There’s game-breaking potential somewhere in there. Hollywood is only one EZ target behind Andrews for the team lead, which is nice to see. He’s not the prototypical EZ threat. The matchup with William Jackson is tough on top of it as Jackson is top 20 in catch rate allowed, passer rating and pPT.

The Ravens still have the lowest pass attempts per game in the league, so on a slate this size I won’t turn to low-volume targets like Willie Snead, Dez Bryant or Myles Boykin.

TE – Last week saw Andrews draw double-digit targets for the first time and he’s still underpriced. With at least two of the other big three tight ends potentially not playing much, Andrews might be the most elite target for tight end on the slate. He should be over $6,000 and the Ravens are sure to target him heavily once again this week. Andrews tops out at about a 70% snap share but his 82.4% route rate is all we care about and it’s fifth among tight ends. Cincy has allowed the second-most yards to the position with eight scores and Andrews is a prime option.

D/ST – I wanted to play them until I saw they were $4,200. That’s likely going to be too expensive for my blood although the 44% blitz rate is really tempting. Stix (that goat that he is) had us on the Cincy offense last week but the matchup goes to the opposite end of the spectrum here. Baltimore is great, but very tough to pay for.

Cash – Jackson, Andrews

GPP – Brown, D/ST, Dobbins

Bengals

QB – Brandon Allen was the hero of the day last week but it’s a new week and this is a spot where it’s best to not chase the game log. I will give him some credit for a 47.1% completion rate under pressure across his 121 attempts but this is still a very bad matchup. Baltimore has fallen back to 16th in DVOA against the pass but have only given up 21 touchdown passes. This is a much more talented unit than the Texans unit they faced last week. Allen is much likelier to have a bad game in this spot.

RB – I can kind of rinse and repeat for Gio Bernard. Last week was he worst run defense in football as far as yards given up go. Baltimore is eighth in DVOA against the run and 11th in rushing yards given up to backs. Bernard is still really cheap for the 23 touches he got last week and the eight targets were great. The frustrating part was he got one RZ carry to four for Samaje Perine, getting vultured once. I think Gio is still really cheap for the potential role, but it is not the smash spot it was and the RZ work really annoys me.

WR – If there’s one player that might tempt me, it could be Tee Higgins. This would really only be if Tyler Boyd is out again but the rookie from Clemson is really proving he’s a player at the NFL level. He’s approaching a 1,000 yard season and with 92 yards this week, he’s going to get there. He and Boyd are one target apart for the lead but Higgins has still sen over 100 targets this year for a 19.5% share. Only A.J. Green has more EZ targets than nine for Higgins and he’s doing his best with questionable quarterback play. If Boyd plays, this passing game becomes a little more muddled. He’s going to be in the slot mostly at around a 77% rate. We’ll get some clarity on Friday.

*Update* Boyd is cleared for this game and that means I’m not interested in the Bengals passing game.

TE – There’s really no middle ground for Drew Sample as he gets targeted either once or seven times lately. Considering the past two games have been just once, that really leaves him as a thin target. His rate is just 9.2% and when Boyd is out and he still gets no work, that’s not a good sign. He does have 11 RZ targets but that’s not enough for me to want to play him this week.

D/ST – This defense is horrible and has the second-fewest sacks with a pressure rate just barely over 18%. No thank you.

Cash – None

GPP – Possibly Higgins

Steelers at Browns, O/U of 42 (Browns -9)

Steelers

QB – The Steelers have announced that Mason Rudolph will start this week and I might actually have some interest. Do I think he’s any good? Not even a little bit BUT he is $4,300. He wasn’t as bad as I remember last year with a 62% completion rate and a 13:9 TD:INT ratio. The talent around him is a little better this year with Diontae Johnson having a full season under his belt and the addition of Chase Claypool. Even if he just gets us 200 passing yards and a touchdown, that’s workable at this price point. Cleveland is all the way down to 25th in DVOA against the pass so as a salary saver, Rudolph can get it done here. It helps that Cleveland will be without corner Denzel Ward again as well.

RB – There seems to be a split to some extent between James Conner and Benny Snell as Conner had five rushes to six for Snell. Conner also had about a 65-35% split in the snaps, which makes things a little harder to read. Either way, I’m fairly uninterested here. The Steelers running game has been garbage all year long and it’s not just on the backs. They’ll try to run the ball with a backup quarterback, but that doesn’t mean they can. Cleveland is only 18th in DVOA against the run but the situation is ugly.

WR – If we go back to last year where Rudolph started the majority of games, Johnson was still the lead target at a 20.5% target share. That’s not set in stone as JuJu Smith-Schuster was hurt and missed games, but I would still give a slight lean to him. My biggest fear is both of these players are priced like Big Ben is playing, and I’m not likely to go there. If I play Mason, it’s probably in cash only and by himself. Claypool is interesting a little bit if Rudolph is willing to push the ball downfield, and the rookie got back to right around 80% of the snaps last week. They could also get pulled early and the stealth play is James Washington. He’s playing a good bit of snaps but he’s still the number four. In this game, he could be the number one and he’s dirt cheap. With the Steelers sitting Ben so early in the week, all the starters are on red alert to leave early.

TE – Eric Ebron might be the most valuable player in this passing game (pending snaps played). Rudolph had a 6.2 yards per attempt last year and was mostly unwilling to get too aggressive. With Ebron having just a 7.1 aDOT, he could be targeted quite a bit. Even with Ben in, it’s not like this was a vertical offense. Ebron has a respectable 14.9% target share and is tied for the team lead in RZ targets. Changing quarterbacks can be volatile for the roles of players, but I think Ebron has he best chance to make the smoothest transition for as long as he’s in.

D/ST – They won’t be on my radar at all. With Ben already out and the team not having a traditional bye week, I can’t see T.J. Watt, Cam Hayward, Minkah Fitzpatrick or Joe Haden playing that long. At this price, they likely won’t be worth it.

Cash – Rudolph

GPP – Washington

Browns

QB – Here’s another team we need to be very interested in. After last week’s stumble, Cleveland needs this game and I think Baker Mayfield is in play despite the red “one” next to his name for the matchup. As I said, I don’t think the Steelers are going to risk their most important defensive players. They are razor thin in depth at multiple spots. For any hope of a playoff run, they need those guys healthy. Mayfield should be able to have a good game and was really clicking before he had no receivers last week. Now he has them all back in the fold and their backs are against the wall. Baker is one of the more interesting quarterbacks that is cheap.

RB – I said last week that I liked Jonathan Taylor in this same spot and I have to say the same for Nick Chubb. He’s going to have an easier path and somehow, even on 28 yards rushing he produced 17.6 DK last week. Now, he’s not going to get five targets again this week but the defense is going to be much less motivated to stop him. Chubb is going to get 20 touches against a defense that won’t risk anything. That’s all I need to know, and the fifth-best DVOA shouldn’t concern you. Kareem Hunt is in play as well, but not really my preferred target at the salary. I expect Chubb to get the vast majority of work here.

WR – I’m sure I’m not the only person happy to see Jarvis Landry back and he is going to have a big game. His 28% target share without OBJ speaks volumes, as does his 14 RZ targets. No other player has more than six in that time span and I’m really looking at him in a big way in cash games. He fell $400 from last week. That’s enough for me and since he’s in the slot around half the time, he won’t have to deal with Joe Haden even when Haden plays.

Rashard Higgins is the GPP target again with backup corners suspected. He’s the air yards share leader at 31.7% and is close to a 20% target share on his own. Cleveland will likely try to get on top quick and if that happens, Pittsburgh could wave the white flag early. He’s a super cheap option to go after in GPP.

TE – Now that there’s other threats in the passing game, it’s even easier to get behind Austin Hooper. No, he won’t get to 15 (!!) targets again this week but they’ll be higher quality targets and that’s all the matters. Since he’s under $4,000 and has the third-highest target share on the team, Hooper is pretty easy to play in any format if punting the position. I can see him in cash but I do prefer him in GPP more.

D/ST – If you don’t want the Jets, I can see the Browns defense as a punt. They have 37 sacks and 20 turnovers, both respectable marks. Rudolph didn’t impress anyone last year and there’s not a big reason to fear him.

Cash – Baker, Landry, Chubb

GPP – Hooper, D/ST

Cowboys at Giants, O/U of 45 (Cowboys -1.5)

Cowboys

QB – I guess Andy Dalton read that I didn’t think he had any ceiling because he went bonkers this past week with 377 yards and three touchdowns for 30 DK points. This is a tougher matchup although the Giants are a weird mix. The DVOA is just 24th against the pass but have given up just the seventh-fewest DK points per game. With a 21:10 TD:INT ratio, that’s not that bad of a mix and I’m hesitant to go back to Dalton here even with the talent he has.

RB – Since Dallas still has a chance to sneak into the playoffs, expect Ezekiel Elliott to get plenty of run. Zeke looked healthy last week and got 23 touches, and we should bank on that again. He scored 20 DK points even without a touchdown and the Giants have given up the third-most receiving yards. Zeke is too cheap against a team that is sitting in the 20’s in DVOA against the run and he’s going to try and give them every chance to sneak in.

WR – It could be another week to focus on Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb since Amari Cooper will face off against James Bradberry. Really, it may not be that big of a difference as Cooper produced anyways last week (the Eagles decided to move Darius Slay off him after Gallup was blowing up. It’s almost like you need multiple good corners). Since Dalton has come back, Gallup has the lead in targets with 43 to 38 for Cooper to 36 for Lamb. The latter is really the scariest one as he’s got the lowest target share and is under 60% of the snaps since Dalton returned. That’s tough as he needs to score to pay off.

I would prefer Gallup at the salaries and target share that we have at hand. Additionally, the matchup with Isaac Yiadom is not a worry. He’s allowed a 13.0 YPR, 106.3 passer rating and a 1.80 pPT. This isn’t just game log chasing.

TE – Dalton Schultz has really taken a step back with Dalton and is a distant fourth in targets. He’s not been over 44 yards or four receptions in the last six games, so he’s been the definition of safety valve. The salary is not very high and he could go 3x, especially considering they’ve allowed almost 800 yards to the position. Now, they’ve only let up four scores so Schultz doesn’t stand out in any other way than possibly a punt tight end.

D/ST – Dallas is on a three game streak of really producing on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve racked up 10 turnovers and seven sacks, and with the Giants poor quarterback play they’re on the board as an option. I don’t really love the price here though.

Cash – Zeke with a bullet point

GPP – Gallup, Lamb, Cooper, Dalton

Giants

QB – I honestly don’t care who the quarterback is but I’m not playing him. The assumption would be Daniel Jones is healthy enough to go but 16 turnovers to 10 touchdowns is trash. We know what he is and it’s a turnover machine with a super low floor and not much ceiling this year. This is an easy pass with a 0.33 pDB, 32nd in the league. I know they can sneak into the playoffs and need this game, but still.

RB – We talked last week about the split this Giants backfield was becoming and that held true again. They were down early, but Wayne Gallman only had six carries and barely played 50% of the snaps. The only reason we played Gallman earlier was he was then getting fed the rock. Now that Alfred Morris and Dion Lewis involved, I’m very leery here. I know Dallas is weak on the ground with the 24th ranked DVOA against the run but I don’t trust any back on this team.

WR – The only receiver that I’m looking for here is Sterling Shepard. He is tied for the target lead since he came back in Week 7 with 70 targets and leads in RZ looks with nine. No player has more receptions on the team since that point and Shepard is still very cheap on DK. He crushed his price last week and the Dallas secondary is still not good either.

I know that Darius Slayton has the air yards share lead at 28.4% but the target share is under 17%. He gets a great matchup in but the volatility of production isn’t that appealing on this giant slate unless Shepard trends towards being out.

TE – Evan Engram looks like his ankle injury won’t keep him out of the game, so we need to look at him. He’s tied with Shepard for the team lead in targets and is under $4,000, a great combo at tight end. Engram also leads in RZ targets and the Dallas defense can be had. They are playing better, but the target share doesn’t come this cheap at the position. He’s a primary option if not using Andrews in my eyes.

D/ST – Is it weird that I don’t want to play this unit against the Cowboys right now? We haven’t said that a lot over the past two months but the Giants could get beat up here. They’ve been struggling as of late, with just two sacks and one turnover across the last three games. Dallas can be vulnerable on the offensive line but New York might not be able to take advantage.

Cash – Shepard, Engram

GPP – Slayton (MME ONLY)

Falcons at Buccaneers, O/U of 50 (Buccaneers -7)

Falcons

QB – Tampa might be in the top 12 in passing yards allowed over the past three weeks, but that’s skewed by facing the Detroit Lions gaggle of poor options last week. Matt Ryan has his flaws, but this is still a spot that can be had. It’s a little risky because Ryan is pressured almost 24% of the time and that’s worrisome. There’s a good news/bad news here because these two teams just played each other. Ryan lit them up for 30 DK points but I wonder if the closeness of the scheduling hurts Ryan here. The Bucs just played him and may be wise to some of their plays. I think Ryan is cheap enough for GPP but I’m not a huge fan in cash.

RB – The Bucs boast the best run defense in yards allowed and DVOA in football so I will have zero Ito Smith this week. He played 32% of the snaps last week and Todd Gurley and Brian Hill played more snaps last week. There’s no reason to go here.

WR – Calvin Ridley is very expensive and I don’t care in the least. He’s been massive without Julio Jones this year and just look at the game logs. He’s been over 100 yards or has scored a touchdown in every single game since Week 12. He pantsed this Tampa defense for 35 DK points last time with a 10/163/1 line and I want another piece of him. In that time frame, Ridley has a 28.9% target share and a 50.7% air yards share. Those numbers are enormous and he deserves to be this high in salary. Jamel Dean has played well with a 91.0 passer rating allowed and just a 1.50 pPT but I don’t fear many corners with Ridley.

I also want to go back to the Russell Gage play. He had a rough time of it last week and that game script just did not go at all how I thought. However, Gage has been in the slot for the majority of his snaps and has an 18.7% target share over the past five games. He has 35 total and nobody has more than 25 on the team. Being in the slot against the Bucs is a profitable spot as well against Sean Murphy-Bunting. He’s allowed a 2.10 pPT on the year.

TE – Especially if you want to stack this game, Hayden Hurst could be an option. He’s had five targets in each of the past two weeks and scored in each game. I still don’t consider him more than touchdown or bust, but he could score with the offense as it is right now. He’s tied in the RZ targets at six with Gage and Ridley (although just one EZ target). I’ve not had a good feel for Hurst all season, but the Bucs have given up eight scores on the year.

D/ST – Not against a Tom Brady that would probably like to win this game.

Cash – Ridley

GPP – Ryan, Gage, Hurst

Buccaneers

QB – My goodness did Brady go full ham sandwich last week. He put up 32.9 DK in ONE HALF of football and if they had let him off the leash, he could have broken the league record for passing touchdowns in a game. If the Bucs win, they guarantee a spot against the NFC East champ. It would be on the road, but it’s hard to not want that spot if you’re Tampa. Brady just put up 26 against this Falcons defense and they are going to have a rough day. They rank 17th in DVOA against the pass but they are also a good run-stopping team. With the playoff fate on the line, Tampa will put the ball in Brady’s hands.

RB – Ronald Jones is back from a stint on the Covid list and a finger surgery, and his price is really too low. Before his absence, Coach Bruce Arians said it was RoJo’s job. I don’t trust BA, but he also scratched Leonard Fournette the last game Jones played. That’s a good sign and this is a very interesting spot. The Falcons are sixth in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the second-fewest rush yards in football. They are also tied for the fourth-most receptions to backs and if Brady is dropping back 40 times, Jones should have at least 3-4 receptions on top of whatever carries he gets. He’s just way too cheap for his role, especially if Fournette is scratched again.

WR – The price really jumped up for Mike Evans but how could it not after he dropped 40+ DK last Saturday? He got these Falcons for 20 DK two weeks ago and that was without a touchdown. If he scores, he could go nuclear again and he has 17 total RZ and EZ targets since Antonio Brown rolled into town, most on the team. Evans is also the only player over 20% in target share so he fully deserves to be this pricey. Rookie A.J. Terrell and his 112.9 passer rating and 13.5 YPR don’t have much of a chance on paper.

Chris Godwin and AB are much harder to separate. Godwin has the target lead at 48-47 and a slight edge in air yards share, though it is negligible. Godwin also has the reception and touchdown lead so I have to give him just a little bit of an edge, though you can argue that it’s not worth playing Godwin at $1,100 more in salary. That tends to be where I land on this slate in that I’ll just take the stronger value. I would say I’m likely only using Godwin or AB in Brady stacks.

TE – Everyone might chase the big Rob Gronkowski game from last week but he literally only had his two receptions that both scored for 58 yards. That’s living your best life and we need to understand just how volatile Gronkowski still is. Even in a great matchup that is Atlanta, he’s capable of scoring 5.9 DK in any game. The Flacons have let up 10 touchdowns and the third-most yards, just know what you’re getting into at the price.

D/ST – There’s not a lot of reason that you couldn’t play the Bucs in this spot but I’m not overly excited about it. The price is still high and they’ve been bleeding points to a lot of teams. They are third in sacks and second in pressure rate so there’s potential but you need a lot of it at the salary.

Cash – Brady, Evans, RoJo

GPP – Godwin, AB, Gronkowski

Packers at Bears, O/U of 51 (Packers -5.5)

Packers

QB – With the Packers needing to win for the easiest clinch for the number one seed, I think we get enough Aaron Rodgers to play. He’s been phenomenal with an obscene 47:7 total touchdown to turnover ratio to go along with over 4,000 yards passing. Chicago is tough on paper with the ninth-best DVOA against the pass but Rodgers is immune to that. He chewed up the Bears for 25 DK points and four touchdowns in the first meeting. That’s easily 3x at this price and the Packers will want to close this one out as fast as possible to secure the precious bye week. The loss of tackle David Bakhtiari is a big deal, but I still expect the Packers to push for home-field.

RB – On the flip side, I think Aaron Jones is too expensive to really consider too heavily. He’s not a sure bet to get a ton of touches as the Packers have split the snaps more than we’d like almost the entire year. Last week was a blowout but A.J. Dillon had over 20 touches and is sort of interesting. My fear is he doesn’t get significant run until the game gets out of hand. If that’s the case, Rodgers will be out so I’m more likely to fade this situation. The Bears being fourth in DVOA against the run so that doesn’t help either.

WR – One of the only teams to contain Davante Adams so far have been these Bears, who held him to a 6/61 line in their first meeting. That’s not really the concern and if the Packers go for the kill shot early, Adams almost has to be at the center of it. There’s not much to say on Adams at this point, nor his 34.6% target share and 39.5% air yards share in the offense. When you’re getting that amount from Rodgers, the sky is the limit every week. Kyle Fuller is a great corner and is 16th in catch rate allowed at 57.6%. I also don’t care with Adams. To make it better for Adams, the Bears are without Jaylon Johnson as well in their secondary.

I really won’t go to the secondary options in Allen Lazard nor Marques Valdes-Scantling. They only combined for three targets last week and are both under 15.5% for the season on target share. We’re not even sure Rodgers will even play the whole game.

TE – Robert Tonyan would be the preferred secondary target but man he is expensive. He basically has to score because the target share is only 11.9% and he has only 10 RZ targets. Tonyan lives on touchdowns with 10 on the season and I just can’t stomach that price tag for such a volatile player. He only looks like a reliable target because of the touchdowns and the only reason to go for him is the Bears have allowed 10 scores to tight ends, tied for second-most.

D/ST – They are just far too expensive for a unit that has only 16 turnovers on the year in my eyes. The Bears can give the ball away with 20 on the season but this still feels pretty dicey.

Cash – Rodgers, Adams

GPP – Tonyan, D/ST

Bears

QB – The Bears actually still can get in the postseason, and the coaching staff and players are fighting for their jobs. That includes Mitchell Trubisky, who is trying to prove that he deserves to start in the 2021 season. Since he got back into the lineup in Week 12, he has played fairly well. He’s thrown for 10 touchdowns in that period against just four interceptions. Only once has he had a completion rate under 68% and the only games that haven’t been fantasy relevant have been either just one touchdown pass or just 21 attempts. He should need to throw a lot in this one and I like Trubisky at this price range once again.

RB – I’ll thank DK for not moving the price on David Montgomery, who produced another 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown last week on 25 touches. Monty has been a terror lately and is still inside the top 10 in scrimmage yards on the season. I am worried about script but Monty did produce 28 DK in this matchup the first go-around. Rocking an 11.2% target share is nothing to be ashamed of either and the Packers are vulnerable on the ground. They are just 19th in DVOA and I think Monty is a good pick in GPP, but would worry about potential floor in cash games. he best way to beat Green Bay (in theory) is to keep Rodgers off the field. That means all the Monty.

WR – I find myself having such a hard time clicking on Allen Robinson’s name even though he smashed in the first game. Usually, I’m loathe to go after Jaire Alexander with receivers but Robinson is talented enough to overcome any matchup. There’s really nothing metric-ly (it’s a word, mind your business) wrong with playing A-Rob. He has a 26.4% target share and a 31.3% air yards share, both to easily lead the team. Only Jimmy Graham rivals him in the RZ and EZ shares, but I just never feel comfortable projecting Robinson for the nearly 25 points he needs.

I still want Darnell Mooney as my secondary receiver, but he’s nothing to ever rely on. He’s just the only other receiver that is over 16% in air yards share (23.4%) so he fits the bill for a potential long touchdown. That’s really the best we can say about him.

TE – Graham has really been a buzzkill lately with three touchdowns in the last three games. He’s only playing about 45% of the snaps but has six combined RZ and EZ targets to just one for Cole Kmet. Since you’re punting either player, it likely makes more sense to go Graham. You need the touchdown to pay off and he has the better shot at it. Green Bay has only allowed five touchdowns to tight ends on the season so neither player stands out as a super strong play.

D/ST – Not against Rodgers.

Cash – Trubisky, Monty (maybe, not sold yet)

GPP – A-Rob, Graham

Saints at Panthers, O/U of 47.5 (Saints -6.5)

Saints

QB – I don’t know if I could possibly get behind Drew Brees on this slate. He’s looked strikingly average since coming back and three interceptions in two games is very non-Brees like. He just doesn’t look right and there seems to be no zip on the ball. The Saints have locked up the division title and if the Packers start running away with their game, there’s no reason for New Orleans to push at all. With needing help to get to the number one seed and Brees looking like he’s in poor form, I’ll pass.

RB – One player that could really turn into great chalk is Latavius Murray. For the same reasons outlined with Brees, Alvin Kamara is not super likely to get a big workload. That means we could get Murray for at least 15 touches (more if Kamara is sat outright) against the 21st DVOA run defense and I’m all in on that at the salary. Murray is more than a capable back and if they sit Brees, Taysom Hill brings an added dimension with his legs to help Murray anyways. Let’s see how the Saints approach this, but Murray could be mega chalk. I’m hopeful that Kamara is active and people overlook Murray.

*Update* Kamara has been put on the Covid list and will not play in this game, leaving Murray as one of the chalkier plays on the slate in all likelihood.

*Update Two* Murray has now been ruled out as well, and this Saints offense is so thin that I don’t think almost any are really in play.

WR – The receiving corps is incredibly thin for the Saints right now, lending more credence to the fact they may run the ball a lot in this one. Emmanuel Sanders is the alpha with a bullet point, but the price is in no man’s land. He’s not super pricey, but the targets are flighty. He’s seen no more than five the past three weeks and that’s not likely to be good enough since he needs almost 17 DK to hit 3x.

I’m not playing any of Juwan Johnson or Marquez Callaway with the questions surrounding this offense and what could change in the middle of the game.

TE – For the minimum price, Adam Trautman could be a punt option. He’s had games where he’s been on the field over 60% of the time and it’s possible Jared Cook might not play a full game. It’s not like Trautman has been a target magnet at all but he’s so cheap, you’re not going to need much. The Panthers are tied for the second-most receptions allowed and the eighth-most yards, so this is a soft matchup. Cook would have some value if we knew he’d play the whole game but we can’t predict that.

D/ST – On the season, New Orleans has produced 42 sacks and 21 turnovers. Normally they are a strong option but could suffer the same fate as the offense in not playing the full game. I’ll use a different unit.

Cash – Murray

GPP – Sanders, Cook, Trautman

Panthers

QB – I’m less and less motivated to play Teddy Bridgewater anymore just because it’s so hard to find a ceiling game. He’s hovering right around average to slightly below in pDB, points per game, touchdowns, yards….everything. He’s a fine “holding someone’s spot” option but I think it’s clear he’s not someone you build a team around. New Orleans is fourth in DVOA against the pass, so this would normally not garner any attention from me. Even playing the angle where the important starters are done by halftime isn’t enough to tempt me. We have other options in the bargain basement to chase.

RB – Sees Mike Davis is still going to start. Closes out the RB tab for the Panthers.

It might not be that cut and dry, but Davis has not seen his price decrease virtually at all despite having just ONE game over 15.9 DK points since Week 5. That’s three months of football that DK has not budged on the $6,000+ price tag. Now he gets a Saints unit that has allowed the seventh-fewest rush yards to backs and are fourth in DVOA. Close out the tab.

It’s not likely to be Davis anymore, but I’m not willing to play Rodney Smith in a tough matchup statically when I can play Ty Johnson for $300 more.

WR – The prices for the Panthers receivers are really appealing on all fronts. Both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson have a 23.7% target share or higher to go along with an air yards share of at least 33.9% (Moore is over 40%). They are all under $6,000 and Moore got the Saints for 4/93/2 the first game while Anderson went 6/74. Moore is going to get some of Marshon Lattimore who has gotten beat up for a 14.3 YPR. That’s a perfect fit for Moore’s game. That should leave Anderson more on Janoris Jenkins with his 1.70 pPT.

Curtis Samuel might be the forgotten man to some extent but if he’s going to get seven rushing attempts on top of five targets like last week, we have to be interested there as well. Samuel is on the field about 67% of the time on the season and has 38 rush attempts to go with his 86 targets. That style of volume isn’t bad at all and Samuel runs out of the slot a good bit. He’s also likely to get some more rushing attempts with the situation so dire. Moore and Samuel are my favorites of the bunch.

TE – Ian Thomas can continue to be safely ignored with just a 5.7% target share on the year with two RZ looks.

D/ST – It seems like the only time the Panthers defense is worth playing is if they get a defensive touchdown, which we have little chance to predict.

Cash – Samuel, Moore

GPP – Anderson

Jaguars at Colts, O/U of 49.5 (Colts -14)

Jaguars

QB – The Jaguars have locked up the number one pick, so welcome to Duvall Trevor Lawrence. I wonder if that means the Jags turn back to Gardner Minshew now since he’s definitively better than Mike Glennon. Of course Minshew has his flaws but perhaps the Jags can try and dangle him in the offseason to a QB-needy team. The Mustache hasn’t played that terribly when given the reigns this season with a 16:5 TD:INT ratio in nine games. Indy is seventh in DVOA against the pass so it’s not an easy matchup on paper but the price is so low for Minshew that I would remain interested.

*Update* The Jaguars are still starting Glennon and I have no reason to go there.

RB – Week 17 can bring up some weird names and Dare Ogunbowale might well be one of them. There’s no reason to let James Robinson (who is officially out) play in this game and Ogunbowale played over 70% of the snaps last week and handled 17 touches. Not too much came from it with just 78 scrimmage yards but I might be slightly more interested if Minshew plays. Indy is a strong run defense, as they are 11th in DVOA and have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards. They are in the bottom 10 in receptions allowed and Ogunbowale has some pass catching chops. He’s not the worst value on the board.

WR – Man, D.J. Chark is just going to keep staring at me under $5,000 again. He leads in target share at just 20% but the air yards share is excellent at 35.5%. Chark also leads in RZ and EZ targets so even in a tough spot against Xavier Rhodes, it’s such a low price. You can also play Laviska Shenault or Keelan Cole if you think Rhodes holds Chark in check. Their target share is about dead even and the receptions are tied at 52, so it’s a little harder to figure them out. I do prefer Shenault since they want to continue to develop him at the NFL level. He also gets more of Rock Ya-Sin, who we’ve picked on a little bit. Even in Week 1, Viska scored a touchdown against these Colts.

*Update* Chark is out for Jacksonville and Ya-Sin is out for the Colts. Cole might be he best option here since Rhodes could see plenty of Viska.

TE – Tyler Eifert had a couple weeks that I was willing to punt him in, but not this time. His snaps have gone under 60% and the target share is barely above 11%. We don’t need to dive this deep at the position.

D/ST – They’re the exact same price as the Jets so this is no contest for me.

Cash – None

GPP – Minshew, Ogunbowale, Chark, Viska

Colts

QB – The Colts need to win and they need some help so we can safely go after them in his game. Philip Rivers is at a nice price for cash games, but that might be about it. He only has there games over 20 DK all season and only once has he hit 4x at this current price tag. The matchup couldn’t get much easier as the Jags are 31st in DVOA against the pass but the Colts still might not need Rivers to throw it all over the yard. I would expect another solid day that won’t kill you, but nothing special from the veteran in this one.

RB – One of the best ways to win this game is to saddle up Jonathan Taylor and let him go to work. Only the Cowboys and Texans have allowed more rush yards to the running back position and they are 22nd in DVOA against the run. Taylor has become the feature back in Indy, even if it did happen later than we thought in the preseason. He hasn’t been under 16 touches since Week 10 and he’s shown his upside lately, with four straight games of at least 19 DK. This could be another spot like he had against the Raiders where he rushed for 150 yards and hit pay dirt twice. Taylor has scored five touchdowns in the past three weeks and should continue that streak this week.

WR – If you know which Colts receiver to play on a given week, let me know. The past two weeks have been Zach Pascal weeks after three straight games of T.Y. Hilton leading the charge. That’s coincided with Pascal suddenly leading the receivers in snaps, so he may represent the best value on the board. His 13% target share is only 1% behind Michael Pittman, and neither player has an imposing matchup. That’s being kind to the Jacksonville secondary, which is terrible.

If guessing, I would take the snaps with Pascal and hope the targets continue to follow. I’m not a huge fan of the Colts passing game because it seems like any given week you can be wrong. One of these receivers will have a pretty nice game, leaving them all as GPP targets only.

TE – Last week saw Jack Doyle and Trey Burton turn 10 combined targets into about 13 DK points. Since they both play so much and Mo Alie-Cox is still involved in playing time, it’s best to just skip this position entirely for Indy.

D/ST – They are absolutely in play as the Jags have 24 turnovers on the year and Indy has created 24 themselves. They’ve also gotten to the quarterback 34 times, my only complaint is the price is pretty high. I’ll likely go lower in salary.

Cash – Taylor, Rivers, D/ST

GPP – Pascal, Hilton, Pittman

Titans at Texans, O/U of 56 (Titans -7.5)

Titans

QB – The Titans are in the “win and clinch” scenario since their easiest path is just beating the Texans, winning the AFC South and getting the four seed. Knowing that, this entire team is in play and I honestly believe a Titans stack is one of the most appealing plays on this slate. They have the highest O/U of any game. Ryan Tannehill might seem a little pricey and he is, but just look at what Brandon Allen did to this defense last week. Brandon. Allen. Since becoming the starter for the Titans, Tannehill has put up stats comparable to Patrick Mahomes in some respects. That’s mind-blowing but true. He’s second in the league in pDB, ninth in points per game, sixth in touchdowns and first in true completion rate. Fire away in any format.

RB – Say it with me – all the Derrick Henry this week. If there is one player that I feel like I’m going to lock in everywhere, it’s Henry. Houston is the stone worst rush defense in football. The Titans absolutely need to win. Even when the Titans got housed Sunday in Green Bay, Henry had 23 touches. Houston is 30th in DVOA against the run and are the only team to surrender over 2,000 rushing yards to this point of the season. Henry is going to steamroll this defense and the first time around he had 43 DK points. I’m not going to be surprised if he approaches that score again this week.

WR – I’m putting basically no stock in the play from last week for the Titans, so A.J. Brown and Corey Davis are both strongly on my radar. Since the prices have closed, I’m just going to find the extra money for Brown. He has the target share lead at 25.1% and the air yards share at 34.4%. The receptions are dead even but Brown has 10 touchdowns to five for Davis. Brown should absolutely destroy this matchup. We’ve relentlessly targeted Vernon Hargreaves and the Houston secondary. We’re no stopping now.

TE – Jonnu Smith is still on the board as a target as well. We always chase tight ends that can score in this price range and Smith leads the team in RZ and EZ targets. That’s the kind of metrics we need because his 59.3% route rate is only 25th in the league. With a lower volume, the touchdown equity has to be higher and he’s scored the third-most touchdowns at the position. If you fade Henry and go full leverage with the passing game, Smith is a very interesting (and cheaper) way to get a second piece with Tannehill and AJB.

D/ST – No way. The Texans offense is still producing at a high level and the Titans defense have a bottom five pressure rate with little chance at racking up sacks even against the Texans.

Cash – Henry, AJB, Tannehill

GPP – Smith, Davis

Texans

QB – The expectation is Deshaun Watson is going to play, and he needs to if the Texans have any remote chance to field a competent offense. It’s really incredible what Watson is doing and he’s not getting the attention he deserves because Houston is so bad. Watson is sixth in pDB, sixth in points per game, ninth in touchdown passes, second in yards, third in true completion rate and fifth in rushing yards. There’s nothing he can’t do against any opponent. Provided his arm is ok after a scary looking hit, Watson is safe for any format.

RB – I didn’t want any David Johnson last week and boy was I WRONG. I couldn’t have been more wrong and credit to the staff who went after him. DJ looked like prime DJ in Arizona and rolled up 31.9 DK points on just 15 touches. Two touchdowns will certainly help and I still feel like I’m chasing if I play him again. The price has gone higher and the odds of him scoring twice and going over 100 rushing yards on so few touches are not great. Tennessee is 16th in DVOA against the run, which isn’t terrible. I still will likely be underweight to none just because of the salary and the massive efficiency. If the backfield is thin like it was last week, maybe I can get on board here.

WR – Just like DJ, I really whiffed on Brandin Cooks but I’m not willing to make that mistake again. If Cooks gets onto Malcolm Butler even just a handful of snaps, he’s going to absolutely torch him. Butler does not have the speed to keep up with Cooks in the least. Since Will Fuller has been suspended, Cooks has the air yards share lead at 34.5% and target share lead at 23.2%. He also has the co-lead in EZ targets and a pristine matchup. Even if the Texans put A’doree Jackson on him to match the speed factor, Jackson has barely played this year and I favor Cooks.

I still like Keke Coutee out of the slot as well. He’s only a little bit behind Cooks for the target share lead and has four RZ targets. Only DJ has more since Week 13 at five, and Coutee also has the EZ target lead with Cooks. He’s running out of the slot which means a lot of Desmond King. He’s been solid but has allowed nearly a 65% catch rate.

TE – If you have to play a tight end (not that I am), it has to be Jordan Akins. Since Fuller has been gone, he has a 14.1% target share and is fourth in raw targets. Even still, he’s only averaging about six PPR points per game and that’s not going to be worth much. Tennessee is just average to the tight end and has only given up seven scores on the season.

D/ST – There’s no reason to play this bad of a defense against a very efficient offense that has only given up 11 turnovers and 22 sacks.

Cash – Watson, Cooks

GPP – DJ, Coutee

Chargers at Chiefs, O/U of 44 (Chargers -3.5)

Chargers

QB – We’ve seen some volatility with the production for Justin Herbert lately, making him possibly a little shakier than he has been at any point this year. The seasonal metrics still look great. He’s eighth in points per game, 10th in passing touchdowns and seventh in passing yards. One facet that has fallen off a bit is the pDB as it’s down to 15th. It’s interesting to note that it’s not even exactly Keenan Allen related. Herbert basically didn’t have him against Vegas and he smashed that matchup. With Kansas City already saying they’re resting players, Herbert should have an easier time in this matchup. I do think there’s options that are safer in the price range.

RB – I am really torn on Austin Ekeler. On the one hand, he’s got a fantastic matchup since the Chiefs will A. not have their first-string offense in and B. KC is 29th in DVOA against the run. They’ve also allowed the most receiving yards to backs, which seems to be directly in Ekeler’s wheelhouse. Well, maybe it is. For some reason, Ekeler only has a total of seven targets in the past two games. That’s pretty baffling considering Allen has played all of 24 of a possible 134 snaps the past two weeks. We’re talking about a player that has a target share over 28% with Herbert but Ekeler is getting the ball less. I firmly believe that Ekeler could smash this matchup, but I’m a little more leery with how the past couple weeks have gone. Ekeler is a premier pass catching back in the league. It’s silly to take that away from the offense.

WR – Well, well, well, how the turntables…. it’s a reference from The Office (pour one out for those who just lost it on Netflix) and it could be Mike Williams week just one week after Stix swore him off. Allen is officially out this week and Williams has the air yards share lead with Allen in the lineup. He saw 10 targets last week and dropped a touchdown, which changes his day significantly. Williams is still far too cheap and should be a strong option against some depth pieces on KC.

Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson are fighting for the scraps and I lean Guyton with a higher target share and since he’s cheaper. That’s about all we can say with Williams almost a lock to get double-digit targets again.

TE – We’ll wait to see if Hunter Henry comes off the Covid list before making the call here.

*Update* Henry is not going to get activated for this game, so Williams should see another boatload of targets and RZ looks.

D/ST – Is it weird that I’m scared to play them even without the Chiefs playing the starters? The salary does them no favors, in all honesty. They do have 18 turnovers forced but the 26 sacks is very average. I think they’re just a bit too expensive, even for the situation. It’s still Andy Reid on the other sideline.

Chiefs

QB – When we consider using backup or cheap quarterbacks, Chad Henne will enter the discussion. The biggest issue is he won’t be throwing to Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce that much because it would be quite silly to play those guys. Henne has not seen significant action since 2014 when he appeared in three games, so we’re dealing with mostly a mystery box here. On his carer, he only has a 59.3% completion rate (on some pretty poor teams to be fair) with a 58:63 TD:INT ratio. Part of me says Reid will be able to coax a solid game out of him as the Chargers are just 18th in DVOA against the pass. The other part of me says we don’t need to risk this and have better options even in this range, which is where I think I land. It would be different if he had the full offense at his disposal.

RB – We have an interesting situation at the running back spot. Last week the world assumed that Le’Veon Bell would be the lead back but it was actually Darrell Williams who had more touches and played 70% of the snaps. They aren’t priced like that in the least and Williams might have some strong value here. Sure, it’s not the usual KC offense but can we totally look past a back who can get 12-15 touches under $5,000? We shouldn’t. The Chiefs could opt for a more run-heavy approach as well and the Chargers are 28th against the run in DVOA. I’d want some more information on who’s playing on offense but Williams could step into being a big value.

WR – I would have to guess that we’ll have more value in Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson. Both Hill and Sammy Watkins would stand to play a minimal role this week and Hardman and Robinson played over 60% of the snaps last week. I’m not sure if we can overstate just how much of the passing game Hill and Kelce leave behind if they don’t play. Of the 588 pass attempts for Mahomes, those two have accounted for 280 targets. That’s 47.6% of the targets and the air yards share combine for over 60%. That. Is. MASSIVE. I would expect Robinson will be more of a possession style receiver while Hardman is more of the explosive player. Both are well in play and Hardman has a slight edge in target share on the season. I lean Robinson in cash and Hardman in GPP but we’re guessing at how well this offense can function. It’s harder to say what the individual matchups will be because we haven’t seen the offense run without the main cogs.

TE – The other tight ends on the roster behind Kelce have combined for 15 targets. That’s it, that’s the list. Nick Keizer has the “lead” with nine targets but I think the exposure to the KC offense can safely stop here. I’d rather play Trautman from New Orleans at the punt price.

D/ST – My goal on this slate is to stick with defenses that will play the starters the whole time and KC does not fit that bill.

Cash – TBD with more info on how KC handles the rest of the starters

GPP – TBD

Raiders at Broncos, O/U of 51 (Raiders -3)

Raiders

QB – Derek Carr should continue to start as it stands, although I don’t wonder if Marcus Mariota gets the nod to see what he’s got with a week of prep. We’ll operate with Carr as the starter and he’s been better for real life football than fantasy this season. Carr sits between 12th and 18th in yards, touchdowns, points per game and pDB so he’s the definition of average. I think the perception is he doesn’t push the ball downfield enough, but that’s not exactly fair either. His 7.8 yards per attempt is actually eighth, which surprised me. It still just doesn’t come together for fantasy on the 14th most attempts. Denver is 11th in DVOA against the pass and Carr is such a bland option that I can’t get there myself.

RB – I feel like I have a very difficult time getting Josh Jacobs right. When I like him, he stinks and when I pass on him he blows up. This is kind of a good spot for him as the game should be competitive and he ran all over Denver in the first game for 30+ DK points. Denver is 25th in DVOA against the run and are bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed. Jacobs was a dud last week but needed an IV on game day and was fighting through illness. If he’s good to go, the spot is excellent for him as is the salary.

WR – The only receiver that is worth playing in my eyes is Nelson Agholor. No other receiver has a target share above 15% (and even Agholor is just 15.9%) so there’s not a lot of meat on the bone for any other option. I wish that Henry Ruggs was more involved in creative ways, but just 40 targets on the season is ridiculous. Anyways, Agholor is the only option here and he leads the team in air yards share at 28.5% which helps negate the lower target rate. Also, he leads in EZ targets at 12 and that is really respectable. Micheal Ojemudia stands to see most of Agholor and he’s just average by any metric.

TE – The main cog in the passing game continues to be Darren Waller and he is the clear pay-up spot at the position. With Kelce out (assuming), Waller is the alpha and his target share is approaching 28%. He only needs two receptions to hit 100 on the season and he was terrible in the first Denver matchup. I’m not sure that’s the biggest surprise since Denver has been very solid to tight ends this year. They’ve only allowed four scores which is tied for the third-fewest. Waller doesn’t need to score per se, but it would definitely help at the price. I lean just playing Andrews and spending up elsewhere like Ridley and Henry.

D/ST – I know it’s the Broncos, who lead the league with 32 turnovers but the Raiders defense is devoid of talent. We have other options that have a lot more than the 19 sacks the Raiders do on the season and the 15 turnovers that they’ve forced this year.

Cash – Waller, Jacobs

GPP – Carr, Agholor

Broncos

QB – In theory, this is the style of spot to consider Drew Lock. He’s only $5,000, the matchup is perfect for him since the Raiders are 22nd in DVOA against the pass and 25th in yardage allowed. On the flip side, we have so many other options that Lock is still a tough sell. He’s 30th in pDB at 0.37, 27th in points per game and 36th in true completion rate. This numbers are pretty bad, Broncos offensive pieces being injured duly noted. The flashes of fantasy relevance are so few that I’m not quite sure I have the guts. That may seem like a weird sentence considering some of the options we have on the table this week, but here we are.

RB – Melvin Gordon left a bad taste in our mouths after last week but I definitely have interest in going right back to the well. He got 16 touches, although how you don’t target MG3 in the passing game when your quarterback is a trash can is beyond me. Phillip Lindsay is done for the season, which means that only Royce Freeman and LeVante Bellamy are behind him for touches. They combined for just eight touches so we know they aren’t real threats. Vegas is 31st in DVOA against the run and and are well over 2,100 scrimmage yards. Have a short memory here and realize that MG3 is still under $6,000.

WR – If we want part of the measure about how poorly Lock played, Jerry Jeudy was targeted a massive 15 times last week and went 6/61. That’s almost defying all logic for a kid as talented as he is. I’m sure it wasn’t all on Lock, but the inefficiency can really sour a day. Jeudy is the leader in air yards share at 31.1% and he’s now pulled ahead for the target share lead at 21.5%. He’s really the only one that I’m looking to play, although Tim Patrick enters the fray if K.J. Hamler is out. Hamler has a 12.8% target share that would need to be absorbed, bumping up both Jeudy and Patrick.

TE – Another victim of some shaky quarterback play was Noah Fant, although he caught more than half of his passes. Fant has been a player all year that you can play in cash or on short slates, but the ceiling just hasn’t been there. After Week 2, Fant has one game over 12.5 DK. Some of that has been his injuries but this still hasn’t proven to be a GPP play at his price. He does have the co-lead in RZ targets so that helps a bit but the Raiders have been average to the position all year with only five scores allowed.

D/ST – The Broncos have only forced 12 turnovers, second-fewest in the league. They are respectable in the sacks department at 39 but I think there’s better punt options since Carr has only been sacked 23 times on the season.

Cash – MG3, Fant

GPP – Jeudy, Lock

Cardinals at Rams, O/U of 40.5 (Cardinals -3.5)

Cardinals

QB – The Cards have to be feeling lucky that they’ll have Kyler Murray under center this week since the opposition isn’t so lucky. They have a shot at the playoffs with needing a little bit of help, so we shouldn’t worry about that angle. This is a tough matchup, as the Rams sit third in DVOA against the pass. We should note that Kyler managed to score 18 DK the first meeting with only five rushing attempts. That’s fairly impressive and the three touchdown passes helped goose the score. I do prefer other options like Watson or Rodgers or Brady, but Kyler shouldn’t be ignored either. He’s sixth in pDB, first in points per game and top 12 in passing touchdowns and yards. Add in the second-most rushing yards and touchdowns and the ceiling is easy to find.

RB – Kenyan Drake is always sort of in play since his price always beckons, but he almost needs to score to hit 3x, let alone 4x. He has no receiving floor with a 5.7% target share on the year. He’s totally reliant on his rushing yards and the Rams don’t present the easiest spot for that. They match their third ranked DVOA against the pass with the same rank against the run. They’ve also allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards. Drake has a big lead in RZ carries at 55-23 next to Kyler, but it never seems to work out the way. Chase Edmonds also lurks with 11 RZ targets and 13 attempts himself, so I’m not that interested in either.

*Update* Edmonds is questionable, so Drake could be a little more interesting if he’s out.

WR – I wonder what the field thinks of DeAndre Hopkins this week because he could be a great play, especially if he’s unpopular. He went for 19.2 DK the first time around and had a whopping 13 targets. The presence of Jalen Ramsey didn’t really bother him or Kyler as far as workload. He only went for 52 yards so if the yards go up, Nuk could go off for a bigger day.

The secondary target in Christian Kirk has my eye to some extent as well. He’s very cheap and after a month of very little work, he saw 10 targets last week. The Cards were also down big that game which may not happen here. The script is likely different but Kirk is clearly the second-best bet as far as air yards share would lead us.

TE – We saw why I’ve been so loathe to play Dan Arnold lately since he went under five DK points and played under 50% of the snaps. There’s not much of a reason to go after a player in a timeshare with a 8.1% target share on the season.

D/ST – They generate the sixth-highest pressure rate with a 39% blitz rate and that’s got a chance to confuse a backup. The 46 sacks is top five in the league and the 19 turnovers forced are very solid as well. If you’re not going after a true punt, the Cards shake out as one of the better mid-range options.

Cash – D/ST

GPP – Nuk, Murray, Kirk, Drake

Rams

QB – John Wolford does not have any experience at the NFL level, which is not a great mix to walk in Week 17 with a playoff spot on the line. Arizona is 10th in DVOA against he pass and we honestly have no idea what to expect from him. What I expect from the Rams in general is to try and smash mouth their way to victory. They already rank seventh in rushing attempts per game, so the run-heavy approach isn’t going to change. Wolford will have to make a throw or two to loosen up the defense, but this isn’t something I want.

RB – This backfield is a mess. Cam Akers isn’t officially out, but still isn’t practicing with an ankle injury. Malcolm Brown is questionable and Darrell Henderson is on IR. If Akers is out, we’re looking at possibly Xavier Jones with a backup quarterback and not having one of their top wideouts. Yikes.

*Update* Akers is a game time decision on he last game of the slate, so there’s not a ton of safety of using him. The potential for this offense to be a disaster is too high for my liking.

WR – If we have even a little bit of faith in Wolford or coach Sean McVay, Robert Woods might well be a bargain. Cooper Kupp is “not likely to be available” according to McVay which leaves a gaping hole on the passing game. Kupp was responsible for 23.7% of the target share and 22.7% of the air yards share, which now needs replaced. Woods is the obvious guy to step up, as his numbers basically mirror Kupp’s all the way around. My fear is there is simply not enough talent around him to make this play work. Patrick Peterson has been bad but Arizona might be able to triple cover Woods in this game.

That slo brings Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson to consideration, but I’m not sure how much. Jefferson only has a 20.3% snap rate so this would be a big leap for him to play a ton of snaps. Reynolds plays a lot more at 71.4% but I think the answer is still in the run game. The Rams will play a lot of two tight end sets if I had to guess, so this is mostly just Woods and maybe a 1/20 share of Reynolds. Someone still has to get them the ball.

TE – I might actually play Tyler Higbee a little bit even though his route rate continues to be low at 55.7%. I don’t think he runs more routes, but the snap share of 78.7% might go up this game, as will Gerald Everett. Higbee only has an 11.3% target share on the year and five RZ looks, but he’ll help replace the gap from Kupp. He’s not a high priority target, but is a potential GPP option.

D/ST – I never really mind them, but containing Kyler can be a challenge. They only sacked him twice the first time around and that was when he really wasn’t running to help nurse a shoulder injury. I will have other priorities, even though the Rams are always capable of a big effort with 49 total sacks and 21 turnovers forced.

Cash – None

GPP – Woods, Higbee, Reynolds, D/ST

Seahawks at 49ers, O/U of 46 (Seahawks -6.5)

Seahawks

QB – I’m not sure if anyone has noticed, but Russell Wilson hasn’t been cooking much of anything lately. In his last six games, he only has one contest with more than 32 attempts and that just makes little sense. The Seahawks continue to try and go back to their roots of running and defense, and Russ has suffered. He hasn’t thrown for over 263 yards in six games and he’s been over two passing touchdowns just once. In four of those six, he’s only thrown one. The volume has really taken a hit and I’m not sure I’d want to spend on him at all outside of MME formats. The 49ers won’t roll over and die here and have the eighth-best DVOA against the pass.

RB – Chris Carson is limited at practice again but that has been the case for weeks. Seattle does have an outside shot at the number one seed (a small check mark for Russ too, but still) so I expect Carson to have another 18 touches or more. The 49ers are tough on the ground too but Carson’s price might be the most appealing of Seattle. He’s going to get 15 carries and his role in the passing game is always underrated with an 11.9% share. He’s played at least 63% of the snaps the past two weeks so I trust him in all formats.

WR – You can’t make me stop playing D.K. Metcalf, I’ll tell you that. If I’m spending the salary on one of the Seattle studs between him and Russ, it’s DK likely 90 times out of 100. It’s been tough sledding for him too with the downturn of Russ but he still has just under a 40% air yards share and leads in targets by two. Metcalf almost seems due one more monster game in the regular season and the matchup is a little easier now with Richard Sherman not active. Jason Verrett has been excellent this year and is top 30 in most metrics we value, but he’s quite small against Metcalf.

Tyler Lockett has not been a part of my lineups almost the entire year and that will continue. Even though he is under $6,000 and only has two fewer targets than Metcalf, he’s paid off this price for 3x just three times all year. He’s had two good games, two nuclear ones and then a bunch of replacement value games and he’s too expensive for that.

TE – I will not play a Seattle tight end on anything but a showdown slate and those are pretty much over for the season, so I’m out. Jacob Hollister has 13 targets over the past month with a ceiling of 9.7 and floor of 3.0. He has to score for just 3x and the 49ers have allowed just four touchdowns on the season. It’s too thin of a play.

D/ST – If you’re not looking at Arizona, Seattle fits the bill here. They’ve climbed to 16th in total DVOA, which is impressive for how bad they were to start the season. They haven’t scored under five DK points since Week 9 and the addition of Carlos Dunlap was quite the add. A healthy Jamal Adams was monstrous too and the 49ers are the walking wounded on offense.

Cash – Carson, D/ST

GPP – Metcalf, Russ

49ers

QB – We’ll be treated to another C.J. Beathard game and I’m really not willing to bite on the last game. Sure, he managed to throw three touchdowns but he lost a fumble and went just 13-22 for 182 yards. That’s not going to get it done on most games and the only way you can make the case is in garbage time. I’d rather take chances elsewhere with some more talented options. I think Seattle causes some issues for the passing game this week.

RB – I’m not sure if I thought I would say this two weeks in a row, but Jeff Wilson is probably still too cheap. Even if you take away the unlikely receiving score, he still would have been over 20 DK points and that will play. Do I think he rushes for 183 yards again? Not particularly but if he can manage another 20 touches I’m going to be interested. Seattle is 10th in DVOA against the run but I trust the San Fran system more than that ranking. They have a good running game and it can give teams fits. If this game stays close, Wilson can still do some serious damage. He played 70% of the snaps last week and that is appealing at this salary.

WR – San Fran is down to Kendrick Bourne and Richie James as their lead options with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel on the shelf. I have mild interest especially in Bourne since I don’t think the 49ers can run and hide in this game. They’re going to need some plays in the passing game and Bourne is one of the best bets to move the ball. We can’t take the 14% target share too seriously since the top two options are out, so Bourne is a solid value. James has one massive game to his credit, so he’s a bare minimum dart throw but probably not much more. I do have to assume that Seattle matches Bourne with Shaquill Griffin, and that could be an issue. Griffin has allowed just a 1.60 pPT and a 10.4 YPR.

TE – I honestly don’t know why the 49ers would let George Kittle play. He’s that dude and I know he wants to play, but it would be silly of the organization to let him. He’s got his money, and it’s been a long season filled with injuries. If he’s active, I wouldn’t mess with him after a 50% snap share last week. He only had five targets which won’t pay the bills at his price. Just play Mark Andrews in a game the Ravens need to win.

D/ST – I prefer the Seattle defense, but any unit against the Seahawks is in play. Wilson has been sacked at a top five rate and that can lead to mistakes. The 49ers only have 28 on the season and are beat up on that side of the ball, which is why I’d just play Seattle.

Cash – Wilson, possibly Bourne

GPP – James

Core Four

Derrick Henry, Alexander Mattison, Jarvis Landry, Myles Gaskin

I want to stress that Mattison is CASH ONLY to match the chalk. The staff is split on him. Jason wrote him up for his content, Stix hates him. He’s projecting at massive ownership in cash, so you just have to eat that. In GPP, I’m going heavy on Tennessee stacks. Henry speaks for himself this week, while I want big parts of Gaskin and Landry. The former will likely have at least 20 touches and Landry should have a field day against a Steelers defense who isn’t playing anyone.

Win and In

Tennessee – Tannehill, Henry, Brown, Davis, Smith

Miami – Tua, Gaskin, Bowden, Gesicki (possibly Parker)

Baltimore – Jackson, Dobbins, Brown, Andrews

Cleveland – Baker, Chubb, Hunt, Landry, Higgins, Hooper

Los Angeles – Wolford, TBD on backs, Woods, Higbee

Chicago – Trubisky, Monty, Robinson, Mooney, Graham

Win and Need Help

Indy – Rivers, Taylor, Pascal, TY, Pittman

Arizona – Kyler, Drake, Hopkins

Dallas (and they won’t know the Washington result while playing, so they are really one of the most appealing teams) – Dalton, Zeke, Gallup, Cooper, Lamb, Schultz

New York – Jones, Gallman, Shepard, Engram

Playing for Seeding

Buffalo – Allen, Singletary/Moss, Diggs, Knox

Pittsburgh – Technically they are, but have already benched Big Ben. My interest is really just Rudolph and Washington

Green Bay – Rodgers, Jones, Adams, Tonyan

New Orleans – Brees, Murray

Seattle – This is NOT likely, so they run the risk of benching early. Russ, Carson, Metcalf

Tampa Bay – Brady, RoJo, Evans, AB, Godwin, Gronkowski

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