NFL DFS GPP

And then there were eight. As we look back at the exciting Wild Card Round in the rearview mirror, Saturday afternoon is arguably the best weekend in football. The cream has finally risen to the top in the 2023 NFL Divisional Round where we will witness four games featuring the 93% Grade “A” meat of the league’s finest. The slates are getting smaller and smaller each week as we approach Super Bowl LVII, so we will need to be even sharper and more creative in our DFS builds. Being different will make you uncomfortable, separate you from the field and keep you above the pay lines in your GPPs and cash games.

Let’s get down to business. Remember to hop on our Discord chat for all your questions and advice on your lineup builds and always take the time to use our optimizers and projection models. The party starts now…NFL Divisional Round Breakdown here we go!

Saturday Slate 1/21/23

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-8.5) (O/U 53)

Jaguars

Just when you thought the Jaguars were toast last Saturday, it goes to show you the game is never over until the clock hits 0:00. The second half in Jacksonville was a true storybook ending for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, throwing four touchdowns after four interceptions. But can they continue on their hot streak against the number one-seeded Chiefs on the road? Absolutely.

Kansas City has been one of the most generous passing defenses league with a DVOA of 29th in the league. The writing is on the wall for Lawrence and his receiving core… put the ball in the air. Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram will all be busy running routes, likely playing from behind. The Chiefs’ zone formations do allow receptions to running backs too, giving up 19 in their last three games. Travis Etienne could also be effective in this matchup. We like the players but love their price tags. All are affordable as mid-range salaries on DraftKings, and valid contrarian punts would be Jamal Agnew ($3,000 on DK) and Marvin Jones Jr. ($3,600 on DK). Both are third and fourth in snap share and would be your dart throws on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Chiefs

It will be business as usual for Pat Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium making his fifth consecutive visit to the postseason, and his opponent couldn’t be any juicier. The Jags land right below the Chiefs in passing DVOA at 27th, and Mahomes exploited this defense back in Week 10 throwing for 331 yards and four touchdowns. The key to his success in the regular season has been his ball distribution, allowing everyone a piece of the offense besides tight end Travis Kelce.

Jerick McKinnon, Kadarius Toney, and Justin Watson have all reaped the rewards of Mahomes, especially in the absence of Mecole Hardman’s pelvis injury. Of course, we still like Ju Ju and MVS and are viable this Saturday afternoon, but all will be in plenty of other people’s lineups. Rookie Skyy Moore and tight end Noah Gray will see the field too, with the injuries to Hardman and fellow tight end Jody Fortson. Lock them both in for punt plays at receiver and tight end positions, and elude a lot of the chalk.

Cash: T. Lawrence, P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, E. Engram, C. Kirk, Z. Jones, T. Etienne, J. McKinnon, J. Smith-Schuster, K. Toney

GPP: M. Jones, J. Agnew, M. Valdes-Scantling, S. Moore, N. Gray

Giants @ Eagles (-7.5) (O/U 48)

Giants

Big Blue pulled off the upset in Minnesota last weekend in a very fantasy-friendly Vikings defense which allowed them 31 points and the victory. They’ll ride that momentum down I-95 into the heart of the NFC’s number-one seed and division rival Philadelphia Eagles. Can they pull off another upset? Only time will tell.

First-year head coach Brian Dabol has unlocked quarterback Daniel Jones, turning him into a QB-1 for the postseason, scoring well over 30 fantasy points (78 rushing yards) against the Vikings. Running back Saquon Barkley was also on his game scoring two touchdowns, and giving the Giants a one-two punch on the ground heading into Philly.

But the real story in New York has been walk-on receiver Isaiah Hodgins. Thrown to the waivers by the Bills, the Giants snagged him in Week 10, scoring five touchdowns in his last six games. Fellow receivers Darius Slayton and Ritchie James have also picked up the slack regarding all the injuries this season, and are priced way too cheap in this matchup that Vegas foreshadows the Giants trailing by a big margin. The Giants’ pass catchers will provide much-needed salary relief with a high ceiling for builds on Saturday-Sunday.

Eagles

All eyes will be on quarterback Jalen Hurts when he leads the number one-seeded Philadelphia Eagles onto the field this coming Saturday night. Hopefully, we will get the regular season, MVP-caliber Hurts instead of the Week 18 one that put up just nine fantasy points against a third-string Giants’ defensive unit. Time will tell if he is back to 100% as the Eagles cannot afford to lose to a Giants team playing with house money and nothing to lose.

I love the controversy around Hurts‘ injury, it’s driving his stock down and giving him a huge edge in DFS as possibly the lowest owned, highest potential on the slates. He slaughtered the Giants’ in Week 14, throwing two touchdowns and rushing for one in only three-quarters of play.

As for the other options in Philly, they are all a go for me except for AJ Brown. We all saw Justin Jefferson disappear in Minnesota last weekend, thanks to a healthy cornerback Adoree‘ Jackson, and safety Xavier McKinney. Brown’s high salary may not pay off as did Jeffersons‘, so a pivot to Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Quez Watkins would be pretty clever on Saturday for DFS. Tight end Goedert especially after the monster game TJ Hockenson had against the Giants’ linebackers last week.

Let’s not forget about Eagles running back Miles Sanders. He went for 144 yards rushing with two scores back in Week 14’s massacre. But his production is heavily reliant on Hurts‘ ability to run the football. I’ll have my share of Sanders at $5,700 on DraftKings in hope that Hurts is back to his true form as the top dual-threat quarterback. Also, check out Boston Scott “the Giant Killer” (5 TDs in six games) as a nice punt for running back at $4,300 on DraftKings.

Cash: D. Jones, S. Barkley, J. Hurts, D. Smith, D, Goedert, I. Hodgins

GPP: M. Sanders, Q. Watkins, D. Slayton, R. James, B. Scott

Sunday Slate 1/22/23

Bengals @ Bills (-5) (U/O 49)

Bengals

The Bengals will be out for blood on the road in Buffalo, in a game that many believe would have been in Cincinnati if their regular season game played out with the Bills. Right from the gate in Week 17, Burrow marched down the field to hit Tyler Boyd in the end zone, with plenty more to come this Sunday in hopes of making a second straight trip to the AFC Championship game.

Even though they’ll be without three starting offensive linemen, Joe Burrow has the firepower and agility to carve up a Bills defense that allowed 31 points to a Miami third-string quarterback last week. So can we pair Burrow with his main man Ja’Marr Chase? We could but there may be better options.

Chase could be in line for a dose of TreDavious White and double coverage on Sunday, so pivoting to Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd could pay off dividends in DFS. The salary relief is also a bonus using Higgins, whose $5,800 price tag on Draftkings can be paid easily.

Bills

The AFC champs were sloppy and looked out of sorts in that Wild Card matchup with Miami, allowing third-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson to move the football comfortably. But even on his worst day, the Bills’ Josh Allen continues to rack up fantasy points, but how? He runs…and he throws, rarely handing off the pigskin.

Then there’s his go-to receiver Stefon Diggs, who may see some Eli Apple when Gabe Davis is not on the field. Good luck covering Diggs after what we saw Demarcus Robinson do last weekend…deuces. Tight end Dawson Knox has also been money in the bank, catching a touchdown in five straight games. He could make it six as the Bengals have been a tight end turnstile, allowing eight touchdowns to the position this season.

One more Bills player to consider is James Cook. The rookie running back is priced at $4,800 on DraftKings and has scored two touchdowns in his last three games. He is the clear number-one option at his position and can hit paydirt again in this potential high-scoring game.

Cash: J. Allen, S. Diggs, J. Cook

GPP: J. Burrow, T. Higgins, D. Knox, T. Boyd

Cowboys @ Niners (-3.5) (O/U 46)

Cowboys

Well, they’ve finally jumped a hurdle in history, a road playoff win…congrats Cowboys fans. But the fun has just begun as they face the Niners in Santa Clara in the finale. I’m really looking forward to seeing Dak in action against the number-one-ranked defense. If he can do half of what he did against the Bucs (five total touchdowns, 305 yards passing) on Sunday it could lead to a victory.

Second Team Pro Bowler Cee Dee Lamb gets the best matchup on paper by lining up in the slot against corner Charvarius Ward. Lamb has dominated in the slot all year, and should absolutely crush against a Niner team that has been tough to run on all year.

I’ve been pretty quiet on DST options so far up until now, I think Diggs and Kearse finally get Purdy to fork over the ball more than once in this game. Dallas takes shots on defense, and as perfect as Purdy has been thus far, Micah Parsons is a problem. He lines up all over the field with one motive, unless Trent Williams saves the day, Brock may have to earn every yard this Sunday.

Niners

The unbeaten and practically undrafted Brock Purdy has been the savior of the Forty-Niners’ injury-ridden season, projecting them as a favorite to win it all. Yes, he did have over 37 DK fantasy points in almost two-quarters of football, can he repeat that? Nope, I can’t even see him get close. After watching Tom Brady throw the ball 66 times and barely put together one decent drive last weekend, I’m out.

Who I do like is McCaffrey, but you don’t need me to tell you that. His yards after the catch have set the bar for running backs in his career. And with all the pressure headed Purdy’s way via Parsons and company, McCaffrey will again feast over the middle with dump-offs and screen passes.

Deebo Samuel finally woke up in the playoffs, catching 9 balls for 133 yards and a score. He draws another nice matchup against the Dallas 27th DVOA to opposing receivers. Teammate Brandon Aiyuk also could’ve had a monster day if he held onto that pass that hit him in the numbers. Both are solid and severely underpriced on DraftKings ($5,900 and $5,000).

By the way, if you still believe in Purdy, then go with your gut. The guy is the lowest-priced quarterback with the highest ceiling, giving you the best ROI in DFS for the slate.

Cash: C. Lamb, C. McCaffrey, D. Samuel

GPP: D. Prescott, Cowboys DST, B. Aiyuk, B. Purdy

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Divisional Round Game by Game Breakdown. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord where we will have our experts talking about plays across every sport and tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports and Gain access to our Projection Models. Good luck to everyone this weekend and let’s crush!

The road to Super Bowl LVII will officially be open this weekend as Wild Card Weekend kicks off on Saturday afternoon. Twelve teams will square off and put everything on the line in six games of gut-wrenching football. A few appear to be somewhat lopsided, but all will be full of entertainment, especially for DFS. Now let’s get down to the nitty-gritty and chew the fat on each team, game by game. Who to target? Where’s the value? All this and more will be right here so keep scrolling for our locks in DFS, and remember to check in on our Discord channel and use our Projection Model to help guide you into the pay lines. It’s go time…Let’s get it started for the playoffs! Wild Card Weekend Breakdown here we go!

Saturday Slate 1/14/23

Seahawks @ Niners (-9.5) (O/U 42.5)

Seahawks

Geno and the Seahawks will have their work cut out for them on the road, and it could get ugly. Seattle struggled to move the ball and put points on the scoreboard in both meetings with the Niners in the regular season. Only 20 total points with just two touchdowns against San Fransisco’s number one ranked defense in total yardage and points allowed in Weeks 2 and 15. But on the brighter side, one Seahawk has kept his fantasy value for the matchup, Tyler Lockett. He’s been the apple of Geno’s eye all year long and profited from opposing defenses bracketing DK Metcalf all season. In the two meetings, Lockett has scored over 13 and 22 DK fantasy points, forcing major ownership in his direction for only $6,000 on Draftkings.

Although Seattle depicts to be trailing a ton in this game, they will have to run the ball and keep the Niners honest. Stud rookie running back Kenneth Walker III has been a machine in his past three games, seeing a boatload of volume. He had 23, 26, and 29 rushing attempts, and scored well over double-digit fantasy points in those recent games, making him quite the contrarian play at $5,900 on DraftKings.

Niners

Winners of seven straight games, the Niners are well on their way to making it eight by hosting a Seahawks team limping into the playoffs as the seventh seed. Third-string rookie quarterback Brock Purdy has looked flawless leading San Fransisco’s electrifying offense. As far as DFS purposes, he will not be motivated to do much against such an inferior opponent. Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle have exploded onto the scene since Purdy took the reins, and should continue to rack up fantasy value in this matchup. Seattle’s DVOA of 30th to running backs and 32nd to tight ends will be set-it-and-forget-it for fantasy managers on Saturday.

One other Niner took to take a gander at is Deebo Samuel. His price tag has fallen to $5,700 on DraftKings and in my mind is a bargain. He’s been a receiver who’s fully capable of lighting it up, and this weekend may be a get-right game returning from a hamstring injury. Consider him off the radar of DFS ownership, separating yourself from the field in GPPs.

Cash: T. Lockett, C. McCaffrey, G. Kittle

GPP: K. Walker III, D. Samuel

Chargers @ Jaguars (+2) (O/U 47.5)

Chargers

Justin Herbert will make his playoff debut on the road and look for his first win as a 2-point favorite in Jacksonville. His salary is a bargain at $6,600 on DraftKings in a high-volume passing offense that is anticipated to be a high-scoring event. But he will be without receiver Mike Williams, who suffered a back injury in Week 18. This incident will force Herbert to look for wideout Keenan Allen and running back Austin Ekeler, even more, this Saturday night. All three will be viable for DFS in this fantasy-friendly atmosphere, four when you count Josh Palmer (Williams’ injury replacement).

We do need to get different in these mini-game slates in order to cash, so take a peek at the Chargers’ tight ends to do so. Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr. will go unnoticeable in this game, giving you an edge against the field. The Jags rank 25th among opposing tight ends, a single trip to the endzone for either of the two would pay off their affordable salaries ($3,800 and $2,700 on DraftKings).

Jaguars

Duval County, Florida will host their first playoff game in five years, led by sophomore sensation quarterback Trevor Lawrence. I personally will be all over him as a steal at $5,700 on DraftKings in most of my Saturday lineups. Pairing T-Law with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram would all be a legit way of building a nice stack, who are also all under $6K on DraftKings.

Running back Travis Etienne by far has the best matchup on paper for this Wild Card matchup though, as the Chargers have given up the second-most rushing yards for the 2022-23 season. At $6,000 on DraftKings, he’s a lock for production in a must-win battle at home.

Cash: J. Herbert, T. Lawrence, T. Etienne, A. Ekeler, K. Allen

GPP: C. Kirk, E. Engram, Z. Jones, G. Everett, D. Parham Jr., J. Palmer

Sunday Slate 1/15/23

Dolphins @ Bills (-9) (U/O 47)

Dolphins

Well, not much to anticipate for Miami but walking out with their pride and an “L” on Sunday. It’s highly unlikely third-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson will be able to lead this high powered offense on the road in Buffalo. It’s sad to say the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can be compared to Lambos with flat tires with the current quarterback situation. So it’s a fade for me in any cash formats for Dolphins in my builds.

For tournaments, Jeff Wilson Jr. may be stepping into a larger role on Sunday. Fellow running back Raheem Mostert broke his thumb and is listed as questionable. Wilson would own the backfield and be heavily leaned on by rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson in Buffalo if Mostert does not suit up. Sign me up for only $5,400 on DraftKings.

Bills

The Bills are on cloud nine after the news of cornerback Damar Hamlin recovering from a heart attack at home and blowing the doors off the Patriots to close out the season 35-23. We’ve like quarterback Josh Allen and receiver Stefon Diggs all season, why stray away in this playoff cake walk? Their stats speak for themselves, so using them for DFS is a no-brainer against Miami. Tight end Dawson Knox has also shined, scoring a touchdown in his last four games. He’s viable against a Dolphin’s defense that is 29th in DVOA to opposing tight ends.

As I mentioned about Miami possibly struggling to move the football on Sunday, the Bills DST is another lock for the slate. Potential turnovers and three-and-outs all may be in the forecast for the Fins on Sunday.

Cash: J. Allen, S. Diggs, Bills DST

GPP: J. Wilson Jr., D. Knox

Giants @ Vikings (-3) (O/U 48.5)

Giants

Big Blue enters the playoff picture as road dogs, but an argument can be made to see the Giants pull off a win on the road this weekend. Quarterback Daniel Jones has been severely under rated this year, having only turned the ball over 8 times compared to last season’s 17 turnovers. He’s a tremendous value at quarterback for DFS ($5,600 on DraftKings), in a matchup only a few weeks ago scoring close to 25 DK points in Minnesota.

If we love Danny Dimes, we’re feeling his receivers too this weekend. Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins all hold water in a receiving core who punched the Vikings’ secondary in the mouth in Week 16 combining for 52 DK points.

Last but not least, we will never forget the engine of the Giants’ offense, Saquon Barkley. He keeps the men in blue running on all cylinders, rushing for over 1,300 yards and finding the endzone on 10 visits in 2022-23. His salary will stun your cap, but it’s money well spent on a running back who refuses to leave the field averaging over 18 fantasy points per game.

Vikings

Minnesota will be put to the test again in the playoffs for consecutive season after season, can they advance? Kirk Cousins has had more ups than downs so far for the year, throwing well over 4,500 yards and 29 touchdowns. Like Jones, Cousins too had a solid game in Week 16 against the Giants with 24 DK points, throwing for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Justin Jefferson and tight end TJ Hockenson exploded for a combined 74 DK points in that Week 16 home victory. Expect heavy ownership of the duo, and rightfully so. If you’re looking to get uncomfortable and different in this game, check out Irv Smith. He started the season as the Vikings tight end one, but quickly was forgotten after an injury and the acquisition of Hockenson. He made his return in Week 18 and saw an equal snap share of Hockenson of 48%. I’m in on Smith for $2,500 on DraftKings with very low ownership in my GPPs.

Cash: D. Jones, S. Barkley, J. Jefferson,T. Hockenson

GPP: D. Slayton, I. Hodgins, R. James, K. Cousins, I. Smith

Ravens @ Bengals (-7) (O/U 42)

Ravens

Baltimore will be in the same boat as Miami this weekend for the playoffs, without a solid quarterback. Lamar is out, Huntley is questionable, leaving Anthony Brown as their only healthy signal caller. What makes the Ravens’ offense even worse is their lack of offensive firepower. When you have Demarcus Robinson on the top of your receivers’ depth chart, you know you have issues moving the football. Mark Andrews is the only true weapon for Baltimore, but that all depends on how his quarterback performs.

The Ravens are a run-first team, but will most likely see a ton of stacked boxes in Cincinnati, but J.K. Dobbins should be considered a roster spot for DFS. He’s had the most rushing yards in the league since Week 14 with 397 yards. In order to slow down the Bengals’ offense, Baltimore will need to run the rock, but by all means start that Bengals DST up and call it a night.

Bengals

We could be in for an encore presentation of last week’s Bengals blow out. Joe Burrow was a surgeon at home against the Ravens’ secondary, throwing for 215 yards and one touchdown by halftime. His weapons are at full strength and clear from any injuries. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon will thrive on Sunday Night for the Bengals.

Now if we want to be different in Cincinnati, Tyler Boyd is your man. In three of his last four games he’s racked double-digit fantasy points, which will pay off his $4,000 salary on DraftKings easily. Boyd is the forgotten man in stripes as opposing defenses focus most of their attention on Chase and Higgns.

Cash: Bengals DST, J. Burrow, J. Chase, T. Higgins

GPP: J. Dobbins, T. Boyd

Monday Showdown 1/17/23

Cowboys @ Bucs (+2.5) (U/O 45.5)

Cowboys

Dem Boyz fly into Tampa as 2.5 point favorites facing a crippled Buccaneers offensive line. It’s all on the line in Dallas, as coaches and players’ jobs are at risk if they lose this one. Dak will attack a banged up Buccaneers secondary with Pro Bowl caliber receiver Cee Dee Lamb, who will feast. Dalton Schultz will also crush, as Tampa’s 27th DVOA to opposing tight ends will be exposed by the Cowboys on Monday Night.

If the Cowboys want to win this tough game on the road, it has to be done on the ground and with their defense. Tony Pollard has been electrifying with the football, but the matchup is not ideal (6th in DVOA). Pollard should see lower ownership and could break the slate if he goes on one of his explosions, making him a stud in GPPs.

Bucs

Tom Brady is at home stewing over Vegas placing his team as 2.5 point underdogs at home. The seven-time Super Bowl winner thrives for these moments, and is impossible to fade in these game scenarios. Since the Bucs’ running game has been nonexistent and has only reached 100 yards once in their last five games, Brady will be throwing a ton. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and even running back Leonard Fournette could be in line for plenty of check-down passes from the GOAT.

Brady also loves his tight ends, and the rookie Cade Otton has certainly warmed up to him this season. In Showdown Slates, he’s a dirt cheap $1,800 on DraftKings, so flex him in as one of Brady’s favorite targets.

Cash: C. Lamb, D. Prescott, D. Schultz, C. Godwin, T. Brady

GPP: T. Pollard, M. Evans, L. Fournette, C. Otton, Cowboys DST

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for the Wild Card Weekend. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

It’s finally here! The end of the NFL regular season and the wildest slate for DFS has arrived in Week 18! 13 games full of tanking, resting starters, and crybabies looking to start the off-season early. There’s always money to be made, but we need to be more creative and dig deeper to find the players on the field with a reason to perform this weekend. Besides advancing into the playoffs, players will be auditioning, proving their worth, and most importantly looking to cash in on incentives. So let’s get right to it and have some fun…Week 18 Breakdown here we go! Remember to stay locked in on our Discord for any questions or advice about your lineup builds. It’s been a pleasure to be here as a writer at WinDailySports and to share my perspective with the community for this season…thank you, everyone!

Sunday Main Slate 1/8/23

Vikings @ Bears (+5.5) (O/U 46)

Vikings

Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell mentioned this week he will be pulling some starters in the finale, as the Vikings are happy being the third seed. We’ve loved Jefferson and company all season, but not here in Week 18 at their hefty salaries. Dalvin Cook, TJ Hockenson, Kirk Cousins, and Adam Thielen should also be put aside. But I did see former starting tight end Irv Smith becoming activated off IR, and his min price of $2,500 on DraftKings is a drop in a bucket that could hold some weight in a GPP.

Bears

How do you say “tank” in Chicago? Nate Peterman. The Bears have decided to shelve Justin Fields until next season and roll with their backup. Chicago may run the ball a ton, as usual. But the water is way too murky for me in Chicago to decide on who will get the rock. The safest play would be to run from all Bears until next season.

Cash: None

GPP: I. Smith

Browns @ Steelers (-2.5) (O/U 40.5)

Browns

Cleveland’s last game of the season will be Sunday for sure, but before they say goodbye in 2023, we may see an encore of Nick Chubb. The Browns’ fifth-year back may be force-fed touches on Sunday to try and land the NFL rushing title. This idea may get crushed if Josh Jacobs goes berserk against Kansas City, which could have Chubb behind well over 300 rushing yards. Check the Raiders’ box scores and then decide.

Steelers

Pittsburgh is still alive and any Mike Tomlin team with a chance to get into the postseason will give it their all. The Browns are still one of the worst at stopping the rush (25th in DVOA), so Najee Harris should have a decent game (15 rush attempts/game). The Steelers’ receiving core is also in play too. Pickens, Freiermuth, and Diontae Johnson are all $5K and below on DraftKings and worth a dart throw in a fight for a playoff spot against a Browns’ defense mailing it in for 2023.

Cash: N. Harris, N. Chubb

GPP: G. Pickens, D. Johnson, P. Freiermuth

Ravens @ Bengals (-9.5) (O/U 39.5)

Ravens

The Ravens are hanging on by a thread without a quarterback heading into the postseason. Lamar Jackson will miss his fifth straight game and backup Tyler Huntley is battling a shoulder and wrist injury. We can’t invest in this offense on the road against one of the most dominant forces in the AFC, especially without a quarterback.

Bengals

Cincinnati came out with guns blazing on Monday night against Buffalo before the stoppage due to the Hamlin injury. They’ll keep their foot on the gas as they look to lock up the AFC North and the number three seed. Burrow is safe in this low-scoring divisional game, as well as the Bengals DST. Baltimore will keep the score down, which would leave some mouths unfed in the Bengals’ receiving core. Consider not risking the high salaries of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and aim for the likes of Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst (who needs 100 yards and 2 receptions for a $250K bonus), and Joe Mixon.

Cash: J. Burrow, Bengals DST

GPP: T. Boyd, H. Hurst, J. Mixon

Patriots @ Bills (-7.5) (O/U 43.5)

Patriots

The Pats will need a win to keep their seventh seed alive, but it won’t be an easy task in Buffalo. The stadium will be rocking on Sunday and full of emotion, so picking any pieces of this offense will be pretty risky. The Bills have owned New England over the past few seasons, winning four of their last five meetings since 2020. The Bills DST will be a lock against the lackluster Patriots’ offense.

Bills

With Damar Hamlin in recovery from his tragic injury on Monday night, The Bills will be ramped up and ready to go full throttle against a Patriots team they have owned since 2020. Josh Allen is a lock for cash games and GPPs across this very sketchy Week 18 slate, as the Bills will look to seal the number two seed. As far as the rest of the offense, Diggs has always been the de facto for Buffalo. But for Week 18, Isaiah Mckenzie is 46 receiving yards away from $100K. He’s already earned $150K for reaching 250 and 350 receiving yards on the year, so maybe place him in a lineup for a bargain at $3,500 on DraftKings.

Cash: J. Allen, S. Diggs

GPP: I. Mckenzie, Bills DST

Bucs @ Falcons (-4) (O/U 40.5)

Bucs

A meaningless game for Tampa, since they can’t improve from the fourth seed. We may see starters for a series or two but none worthy for DFS this weekend. Backup receivers Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller could see significant usage against an Atlanta 26th-ranked secondary. Third-year running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn should also see a bump in snaps and is also worth a thought for DFS.

Falcons

There are only two guys worth rostering from this young and upcoming Atlanta team, Drake London and Tyler Allgeier. The rookies have had stellar seasons and seen a majority of the snap share going into 2023. London has seen an incredible 28 targets and Allgeier has scored over 15 DK FPTS. over the past three games.

Cash: None

GPP: B. Perriman, S. Miller, K. Vaughn, T. Allgeier, D. London

Jets @ Dolphins (-1) (O/U 38.5)

Jets

New York will be in Miami to play spoiler to the Dolphins’ playoff run, using the tough and tenacious defense they have executed all season. They’re fairly priced on DraftKings and FanDuel, and facing third-string Miami quarterback Skylar Thompson could lead to double-digit fantasy points in your DST slot.

Dolphins

It’s safe to say we want no part of this Miami offense until next season. Way too risky to even think of paying up for Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle with Skylar Thompson under center, especially against a stingy number two-ranked Jets’ defense.

Cash: Jets DST

GPP:

Texans @ Colts (-3) (O/U 38)

Texans

Nope, we can’t go here for fantasy. Not with head coach Lovie Smith salivating at the first pick in the draft. The Texans do play hard for their head coach, so they will put some points on the board. Just way too unpredictable who will see the ball for Houston.

Colts

Sam Ehlinger is back to close out the season which sets the stage for a very run-heavy offense in Indianapolis. Zack Moss is the guy, who owns 60% of the snaps for the Colts. Moss will feast against a Texan worst-ranked run defense at home, hoping to earn a roster spot for next season.

Cash: Z. Moss

GPP: None

Panthers @ Saints (-3.5) (O/U 41.5)

Panthers

I mentioned DJ Moore was a stud last week, and he was by catching 6 for 117 yards and a score. Now with running back D’Onta Foreman landing on the injury report with a knee late in the week, Chuba Hubbard may be heavily involved in the Panthers’ finale.

Saints

Saints’ wideout Rasid Shaheed has had his moments this season and even posted 13 DK points last week in the Phiily upset win. He saw the field and led all receivers with 68% of the snaps last week, making him a no-brainer at $4,200 on DraftKings for Week 18.

Cash: DJ Moore, C. Hubbard

GPP: R. Shaheed

Giants @ Eagles (-14) (O/U 41.5)

Giants

The G-Men have locked up the sixth seed and have no plans of keeping starters out on the field for too long. We are not interested in any Big Blue players facing an Eagles defense hungry to lock up the number one seed.

Eagles

Jalen Hurts is a man on a mission to lock up a win and a first-round bye to claim the one seed in the NFC. Start your Eagles this weekend in this dicey Week 18, they’re putting it all on the table at home and the only thing standing in their way will be a lame-duck Giants defense loaded with bench warmers.

Cash: J. Hurts, M. Sanders, A. Brown, D. Smith

GPP: D. Goedert, Eagles DST

Cowboys @ Commanders (+5.5) (O/U 41.5)

Cowboys

Dallas to stay on top of the NFC also needs a win, and could move past Philadelphia if somehow the Eagles lose to the Giants. Dak Prescott and Cee Dee Lamb will light up the Capitol on Sunday against a Washington secondary that has been embarrassed all year and led by St–Juste and Fuller (21 passing touchdowns allowed). Zeke and Tony Pollard also will sink their teeth into some red zone opportunities, as well as tight end Dalton Schultz.

Commanders

We’ve seen the Cowboys play down to their competition on defense twice this season, and could allow rookie quarterback Sam Howell a decent game as well. Howell had a decent preseason, running in two touchdowns but I know, this is the real deal. Having McLaurin, Dotson, and Samuel at his disposal, Howell could break the slate if the Cowboy’s defense downplays their opponent again. The Commanders have also decided to shut down running backs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson for the year. Jonathon Williams steps in as the number one back for Washington, and is a lock for cash for only $4,300 on DraftKings.

Cash: D. Prescott, C. Lamb, J. Williams

GPP: E. Elliot, D. Schultz, S. Howell, T. Pollard

Rams @ Seahawks (-6.5) (O/U 41)

Rams

LA will end their Super Bowl hangover season looking to play spoiler and deny division rival Seattle a playoff berth. Running back Cam Akers has owned the backfield in the second half of the year and should be in for a massive game against a Seahawks’ 30th in DVOA to running backs. Seattle’s tight end DVOA is dead last at 32nd, forcing heavy DFS consideration to Tyler Higbee this weekend.

Seahawks

It’s do or die in Seattle, and the writing is on the wall for Geno Smith and the Seahawks. It will be all hands on deck for head coach Pete Carrol, forcing all Seahawks to be worthy of DFS this Sunday including receivers DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett, and running back Kenneth Walker III.

Cash: D. Metcalf, T. Lockett (if healthy), C. Akers

GPP: G. Smith, T. Higbee, K. Walker

Cardinals @ Niners (-14) (O/U 40)

Cardinals

James Connor will not be suiting up for the grand finale of the 2022-23 season, leaving rookie running back Keaontay Ingram a giant workload. San Fransisco is ranked number one against the run, but with Arizona rolling out David Blough in the closer, Ingram could be heavily leaned on as well as evaluated for next season. Blough may also lean on tight end Trey McBride again, the rookie had a career-best seven catches for 78 yards and a score last weekend.

Niners

To keep themselves ahead in the playoff picture, San Fran will and should easily beat up on the dumpster fire of a Cardinals’ defense and put a cherry on top of their superb season. Running back CMC may see a day off since Elijah Mitchell has been activated off IR, and his salary on DraftKings at $4,000 is very juicy if he does see the field. Lock and pay up for that Niners DST across from Dave Blough, they’ll be out for blood after spilling all those points to Vegas last week.

Cash: Niners DST

GPP: K. Ingram, E. Mitchell, T. McBride

Chargers @ Broncos (+3.5) (U/O 39.5)

Chargers

LA has secured a playoff spot as a Wild Card in the AFC and may rest starters after a series or two. Wideout DeAndre Carter should see some burn in Week 18 and will earn an extra $200K if he catches two balls for 55 yards. A safe flier for a mere $4,100 on DraftKings, Carter is worth a dart throw.

Broncos

Broncos country…Let’s hit the slopes. The tight end has been heavily involved in this offense all year, and we saw the resurgence of Albert O. last week. Three catches for 45 yards and a touchdown crushed it and can be repeated with Greg Dulcich done for the season. Albert O. for $2,900 on DraftKings is a steal at tight end for the slate.

Cash: None

GPP: A. Okwuegbunam, D. Carter

Cash Core

J. Allen, Z. Moss, D. Metcalf, T. Higbee, C. Lamb

GPP Core

J. Hurts, N. Harris, H. Hurst, S. Diggs, C. Akers

Stacks

J. Allen/S, Diggs/I. McKenzie

J. Hurts/A. Brown/D. Smith

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 18. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

Sunday Main Slate 1/1/23

Happy New Year WinDaily Fam! Let’s ring in 2023 with some cold hard cash into your DFS accounts by hammering the competition with our breakdown of this Week 17 NFL Main Slate. There were a few dimes in Week 16’s write-up, mainly attacking that Giants/Vikings matchup that led to fantasy galore. Let’s keep the heater going in this brutally cold winter this season, and pick apart this 13-game slate. Remember to stay locked into our Discord community for updates, lineup build advice, or any start/sit questions for your season-long championship games.

Colts @ Giants (-5.5) (O/U 39.5)

Colts

Wow, did Nick Foles fade away after winning Super Bowl LII four years ago? I think it’s safe to say to run from picking up any part of the Colts’ offense after what was displayed on MNF. Three picks with three total points on the scoreboard will scare anyone off using Indianapolis in DFS. And the fact that Foles will be starting again in Week 17 makes me crave the Giants‘ DST even more in my builds. For

Giants

As bad as the Colts offense has been, their defense does keep some points off the scoreboard. New York does need the win to stay alive in the Wild Card race and may depend on Saquon Barkley yet again. His $8,000 price is not sexy at all on DraftKings but should get the job done against a Colts’ team that has forked over 7 touchdowns in the past three games to opposing running backs.

Cash: Giants DST

GPP: S. Barkley

Saints @ Eagles (-7) (O/U 44)

Saints

Last week’s weather in Cleveland destroyed fantasy value all over the Saints’ offense besides Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara finding the endzone. On the road in Philadelphia will be no picnic either as the Eagles’ defense has amassed 19 sacks with three turnovers in their last three contests. An Andy Dalton-led Saints offense will be too risky for me to suggest anybody for DFS.

Eagles

Looks like we will be getting a second dose of Minshew this week as starting quarterback Jalen Hurts still hasn’t practiced all week. If you used him last week in DFS, there was no problem with Gardner’s 28 DK fantasy points. The entire Eagles’ offense feasted except for running back Miles Sanders, who did suffer a minor injury in Dallas. Run the tables again in a game Philly needs to win and keep a grip on the one seed.

Cash: AJ Brown, D. Smith

GPP: G. Minshew, D. Goedert, M. Sanders, Eagles DST

Broncos @ Chiefs (-13.5) (O/U 45)

Broncos

I will have 0 shares of Denver in DFS. The Christmas Day implosion of a skanky Rams team churning 51 points on them led to the firing of head coach Nate Hackett. With 25 other teams to pick from in this slate, I see no need to get cute by taking any Broncos this Sunday unless I was going to be creative in a tournament using Jerry Jeudy. Kansas City’s 29th DVOA to receivers allowed Jeudy to be WR1 for Week 14 with 33 fantasy points and catch three touchdowns.

Chiefs

Kansas City will keep its hand on the throttle and look to take over the first seed in the AFC. start your Chiefs in this matchup where we saw the Rams’ practice squad put a shellacking on this Broncos’ defense on Christmas Day. Just play them with caution this weekend, if Mahomes and the kingdom do grab a big lead early, it may lead to starters sitting in the second half. The only sure thing may be the Chiefs‘ DST as the cheat code against Russell Wilson’s bad cooking.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, J. Smith-Schuster

GPP: KC DST, J. Jeudy

Jaguars @ Texans (+4.5) (O/U 43)

Jaguars

Head Coach Doug Pederson went on the record stating “We’ll play to win” against a meaningless game in Houston. I’ve seen him play this card before in Philadelphia back in 2020, pulling Hurts in the fourth quarter and dumping to the Commanders in a similar situation. Lawrence and the Jaguars are all in line to smash this weekend against the 2-13-1 Texans, but for three quarters possibly? If you feel otherwise, go for it and start’em. Me, I’ll wait until Week 18 when the Jacksonville season is on the line against Tennessee in a win-or-go-home situation.

Texans

Houston for only winning two games this season, they’ve played each game with a lot of heart for Head Coach Lovie Smith. One thing is for sure there is so much value these days in a Texan uniform. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks is the only gig in town, and for $4,800 on DraftKings, double-digit fantasy points are easily attainable against the Jaguars’ 29th DVOA against the pass.

Cash: None

GPP: T. Lawrence, T. Entienne, C. Kirk, E. Engram, Z. Jones, B. Cooks

Panthers @ Bucs (-3) (O/U 39)

Panthers

Carolina has had one dude all year since CMC left town that’s been a rock, and his name is DJ Moore. He’s had six touchdowns on the year and one in his last two games. The road to the NFC South for the Panthers is through Moore…period.

Bucs

Big game for Brady and the Bucs this weekend if they want to make the playoffs, beat the Panthers, and lock up the division. Jared Goff had a field day last weekend throwing for over 355 yards and three touchdowns, a stat line that can be duplicated easily by the GOAT. And now that corner Jaycee Horn has been ruled out, Tampa’s receivers all get an upgrade. Especially the underperforming, Mike Evans who will see very low ownership this week.

Cash: C. Godwin, DJ Moore

GPP: T. Brady, M. Evans, L. Fournette

Bears @ Lions (-6) (O/U 52)

Bears

Chicago gets into the spotlight again in DFS in their second meeting of the year with the Lions. Justin Fields set records and put up one of his two 40 fantasy point performances the last time he faced Detroit, so he’ll be heavily owned. If you’re looking to get in deeper on the Bears in this potential shoot-out, Cole Kmet will be Fields‘ first option to throw to when he’s not scrambling off for 70 yards.

Lions

Welcome to the chalk of Week 17 and the Lions’ offense. The pricing on DraftKings for Jared Goff has been ludicrous, making him likely the highest-owned quarterback for the slate. It will be an all-you-can-eat buffet for the Lions’ offense, as Chicago is second worst in points allowed this season. Of course, Amon Ra makes the cut with DJ Chark, but to be different in tournaments a running back or two would be a slick move to separate you from the field.

Cash: J. Goff, A. St. Brown, C. Kmet

GPP: J. Fields, D. Montgomery, DJ Chark, D. Swift, J. Williams

Dolphins @ Patriots (-2.5) (O/U 42)

Dolphins

No Tua, no problem….Teddy Football is back under center. I’m not against using Tyreek or Waddle this week, just keep them out of your cash games. We have not seen a big enough sample with Bridgewater yet, but we do know the Pats have a laundry list of injuries at secondary (Marcus, Jonathon, and Jack Jones). Hill and Waddle may be in store for another track meet in New England if Bridgewater can get them the ball.

Patriots

We’ve been riding the Rhamondre Stevenson train for running back for a decent chunk of the season, but it may all come to an end this week. Teammate Damion Harris will finally suit up again after suffering a bruised thigh in Week 12, which may lead to a split backfield again. But on the bright side, the timeshare at tight end will get the week off. Hunter Henry will see the lion’s share of snaps and targets because of a concussed Jonnu Smith. If Henry can shake his leg injury, he’s a steal at tight end on DraftKings ($3,000) against a bottom-two DVOA to opposing tight ends.

Cash: None

GPP: T. Hill, J. Waddle, H. Henry

Browns @ Commanders (-2.5) (O/U 40.5)

Browns

If you’re wanting to pivot from the Detroit/Chicago chalk, look no further. Deshaun Watson under $6K on Draftkings is what we’ve all been waiting for. The rust is beginning to fall off, and the matchups are getting softer. The chemistry is also building with Amari Cooper, and pairing with Watson would keep you under 5% in your GPP’s. The Commanders continue to be exploited in their secondary (The St.-Juste and Fuller show) and will be in another foot race with the Cleveland receivers on Sunday.

Commanders

The rookie Brian Robinson will get his time to shine as teammate Antonio Gibson will sit this game out with a foot injury. The matchup couldn’t be any better for Robinson, forcing him into your builds as a lock against the second-worst run defense in football (30th in DVOA). Some other news, Wentz will be back to start at quarterback. Johon Dotson and Curtis Samuel instantly made the connection with Carson back at the beginning of the season, so getting them back in your builds is another way to be different at receiver.

Cash: B, Robinson

GPP: D. Watson, A. Cooper, J. Dotson, C. Samuel

Cardinals @ Falcons (-3.5) (O/U 41)

Cardinals

It’s been a total meltdown in the desert as Arizona struggles to find a quarterback to play out the rest of the season. David Blough will get the call for this week, and we are fading across the board for the Cardinals. Even though James Conner may still be of value, he’s too risky for cash games. Falcons DST holds weight in this spot for Week 17.

Falcons

The Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith has fully turned the keys over to his rookies for the rest of the season. Quarterback Desmond Ridder’s stats aren’t quite there yet, but running back Tyler Allgeier’s 200–plus yards rushing and London’s 20 targets, and 160-plus yards receiving have put a stamp on the Falcons’ offense. Both are safe for cash and tournaments.

Cash: T. Allgeier, D. London

GPP: Falcons DST, J. Conner

Niners @ Raiders (+6) (O/U 45)

Niners

They’ve been on a tear lately running on all cylinders with the rookie Brock Purdy, but going up against a Raiders team who’s packed it in for 2022, the Niners may not need to put up much of a fight. Although the Niners DST seems to be on the cheaper side for an odd reason this week ($2,900 on DraftKings), facing back-up Vegas quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Sign me up.

Raiders

Who knows what we’ll see from head coach Josh McDaniels and the Raiders this Sunday, but whatever it is, it should involve a heavy workload for Josh Jacobs. Inexperienced quarterback Jarrett Stidham will lean heavily on the Raiders’ Pro Bowl running back, who may not be back next season. Keep Jacobs out of your cash games.

Cash: Niners DST

GPP: J. Jacobs

Jets @ Seahawks (+2) (U/O 42)

Jets

Mike White is back for New York, which is great news for the Jets’ pass catchers. Garrett Wilson will thrive once again in a Seattle Cover-One zone defense. Zonovan Knight also gets a bump up, rushing against a Seattle 31st in DVOA to running backs. Grab all three for your builds, just keep Mike White in GPP/SE formats.

Seahawks

Geno Smith will get a little taste of revenge against his former team that drafted him back in 2013. It may not be much to brag about though since the Jets’ defense has suffocated its opponents on offense all season. Besides the matchup, Seattle is burdened by injuries, mainly to receiver Tyler Lockett and running back Kenneth Walker. The Seahawks will be tough to roster, but if you’re feeling they can put up some sort of fight, receiver DK Metcalf is the last man standing for the offense and the only one to consider for tournaments.

Cash: G. Wilson, Z. Knight

GPP: M. White, DK Metcalf

Vikings @ Packers (-3) (U/O 48)

Vikings

Justin Jefferson needs no explanation for why he should be priced into all of your lineups, but running back Dalvin Cook deserves a little breakdown. The Packers continue to be torched by opposing running backs, allowing close to five yards per carry on the season and 144 yards per game. Cook being on the field with an 80 % snap share makes him a worthy roster for running back this week.

Packers

The touchdown passes have gone MIA this season for Rodgers, but we can’t overlook the Minnesota pass-funnel defense that’s surrendered the most passing yards in the NFL. Keep an eye on the Packers’ injury status for receiver Christian Watson, who may not play. Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs will climb the depth chart if he sits, and should do well against the Vikings’ 32nd DVOA to receivers.

Cash: J. Jefferson, D. Cook

GPP: A. Rodgers, A. Lazard, R. Doubs (if Watson is out)

Rams @ Chargers (-6.5) (U/O 40.5)

Rams

It’s officially Cam Akers season in LA. He’s locked into the driver’s seat at running back with a 75 % snap share for the past two weeks, scoring three touchdowns and rushing for over 180 yards. He’ll get another crack at a solid performance against a Chargers’ run defense that has hemorrhaged fantasy points to the position all season (26th in DVOA).

Chargers

The Chargers have locked up their playoff berth, and a win or loss will not change anything in their position in the Wild Card Race. Rostering any of them in DFS would be very risky, as they may only see the field for half of the contest. For Herbert and company, we may not be able to use until the playoffs start.

Cash: C. Akers

GPP: None

Cash Core

J. Goff, J. Jefferson, B. Robinson, C. Kmet

GPP Core

C. Akers, D. London, A. Cooper, D. Watson, H. Henry (if healthy)

Stacks

J. Goff/ARSB/D. Chark/D. Swift/C. Kmet

A. Rodgers/J. Jefferson/D. Cook/A. Lazard/R. Doubs (if Watson is out)

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 17. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

Saturday Main Slate 12/24/22

Another week of top plays in the books as we approach the end of the regular season in 2022. Using the future HOF Tom Brady allowed us a ton of flexibility to pay up for studs like Derrick Henry, crushing at both positions. Here in Week 16 of the NFL, we may be getting into a bit of pivoting due to some inclement weather across the country. Also, remember, our slate will be tomorrow instead because of the holiday. Speaking of which, Merry Christmas everybody! Let us all celebrate with a little extra pocket money by building some winning lineups. Remember to check in on our Discord to keep up to speed and gain feedback on your builds. Christmas Eve Main Slate Breakdown is in full effect, let’s do this!

Bills @ Bears (+8.5) (O/U 37.5)

Bills

Soldier Field’s temperature will be in single digits with 22 MPH winds making the stadium feel like -30 degrees. But the Bills are a cold-weather team and if it weren’t for the high projected winds, I’d be comfortable with most of their players. We’ll stick with Josh Allen. He could be a little risky in cash, but great I feel in a GPP because of his low ownership due to weather. We should see plenty of running and dump-off passes tomorrow as well from the Bills. Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary, and James Cook are all in play to draft for this cold day in Chicago.

Bears

Same here for the Bears, baby, it’s cold outside! The only game in town is Justin Fields, who pretty much runs as it is(1,000 RuYDS this season). Now with the weather and lack of weapons, we may just see Justin taking off at every opportunity. Montgomery and Kmet should also be in the mix, but way too risky in my opinion so keep them out of cash. I am interested in the Bears’ DST though…we could see Buffalo cough the ball up a few times in this insanely cold weather, creating a great paydown for defense

Cash: J. Allen

GPP: D. Knox, D. Singletary, J. Fields, C. Kmet, D. Montgomery, Bears DST

Bengals @ Patriots (+3) (O/U 41.5)

Bengals

On the road in Foxboro to face a Bill Belichick team that was embarrassed in Las Vegas last week could spell trouble for some of these Bengals. The Patriots’ head coach will aim to eliminate their number one weapon…Ja’Marr Chase, which could lead to a decent performance from Tee Higgins. He’ll be under the radar at receiver, mainly because of the action moving toward Kansas City and Seattle for the slate. But Joe Burr fully weaponized is indeed a bad man regardless of whose defense he faces. Burrow having the big three in Chase, Higgins, and Mixon keeps him busy running the Bengals’ offense and climbing the fantasy charts.

Patriots

He’s been questionable for weeks, but Rhamondre has carried the entire Patriots’ offense since Damien Harris went down in Week 12. The Pats will ride the hot hand of Stevenson who ran for 172 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders in Week 15, regardless of the status of Harris and the improving Cincinnati front line.

Cash: R. Stevenson

GPP: T. Higgins, J. Burrow

Seahawks @ Chiefs (-10) (O/U 49)

Seahawks

Another blistery cold scene this Saturday. Seattle is trying to keep their playoff hopes alive and will need to pull off a Christmas miracle in the Kingdom to do so. They’re 10-point dogs, scripted to be playing from behind and forcing Geno to air it out against a Chiefs’ pass-friendly 29th DVOA. No Tyler Lockett spells heavy volume for DK Metcalf, but also for tight end Noah Fant and receiver Marquise Goodwin. Kenneth Walker has been cleared to play but I would be careful spending up on a running back who hasn’t practiced all week from back and ankle injuries.

Chiefs

Mahomes, Kelce, and the Chiefs continue to rack up notches in the win column, but barely. Their defense has not been premium, allowing inferior opponents like the Texans and Broncos to stay in games until the end. We love it for DFS though, as Mahomes will keep the offense on the field for even more production. Seattle’s run defense will be the most targeted of the slate, ranking second worst in the league and driving DFS managers to use the likes of Isiah Pacheco and Jerick Mckinnon, who has put up over 34 DK points in back-to-back weeks.

Cash: P. Mahomes, I. Pacheco, D. Metcalf, T. Kelce

GPP: G. Smith, M. Goodwin, N. Fant, I. Pacheco, J. Mckinnon

Lions @ Panthers (+3) (O/U 43.5)

Lions

We still may see some frigid temps even in the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon. Jared Goff has not been at his best outdoors, leaving us managers out in the cold for desiring any of Detroit’s roster. But Amon-Ra St. Brown is rock solid and Goff’s first line of attack in the open field. He’s seen 119 targets in just 13 games this season, facing a Panthers’ 23rd in DVOA to opposing receivers, we simply can’t fade him.

Panthers

The Sam Darnold experiment in Carolina is somewhat gaining momentum, breathing life back into stud wideout DJ Moore. He cashed in for 176 receiving yards and two touchdowns in three games back with Darnold. Detroit spews fantasy production to opposing receivers (30th in DVOA). Even though it may be a little chilly tomorrow afternoon, Moore should feast in this matchup.

Cash: D. Moore

GPP: A. St. Brown

Giants @ Vikings (-4.5) (O/U 48)

Giants

The G-Men escape the winter wonderland on the slate, and finally, get a friendlier opponent to score on. Quarterback Daniel Jones made the QB article this week and rightfully so. Minnesota’s secondary has looked like a dumpster fire of late, allowing QBs Jared Goff and Mike White to score close to 30 DK points this month. Jones and the Giants’ entire offense gets an upgrade here, especially on a slate full of bad-weather games.

Vikings

Fresh off a record-breaking comeback win, the Vikings look to keep the fire going against New York. Not only did mainstreamers Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and Justin Jefferson crush, second-year wideout K J Osborn had a breakout game (10 REC/157 YDS/1 TD). The Giants’ defense has struggled lately, losing many starters to injury and allowing fantasy points to just about every offensive position (30th in rushing DVOA; 14th in receiving DVOA). In what looks to be another high-scoring bonanza, start up your Vikings.

Cash: K. Cousins, S. Barkley, J. Jefferson

GPP: D. Slayton, I. Hodgins, D. Jones, D. Cook, K. Osborn, R. James

Texans @ Titans (-3) (O/U 35.5)

Texans

The season can’t end any sooner for the one-win Texans, who are looking to be without Nico Collins and Dameon Pierce for a second straight game. however, Brandin Cooks may be on the mend and finally get to suit up after a three-game hiatus against Tennessee. The weather may also be a factor in Tennessee, but against this pass-funnel defense ( dead last in DVOA), and possibly being the only option at receiver for Houston, he is worth a second look in DFS.

Titans

It’s officially Malik Willis season in Tennessee, but that might not be a good thing. The rookie has been unwilling to throw the ball, passing for no more than 80 yards a game in three starts. Which could only mean more work for Derrick Henry, but may also lead to more stacked boxes. The matchup is written on the wall for Henry, Houston is dead-last against the run making him the play of the week at running back.

Cash: D. Henry

GPP: B. Cooks

Saints @ Browns (-2.5) (O/U 32.5)

Saints

New Orleans will be without most of their offense when they land in Cleveland to face off against the Browns. Literally at receiver will be a practice squad for the Saints, as Olave will sit and Jarvis Landry placed on season-ending IR. So are we good with Kamara in a windchill of -30 in Cleveland? I’ll pass, not worth the risk for a guy who has been a dud all year. If you want a dark horse, how about Taysom Hill? Dalton won’t last without any receivers and 30 MPH winds…(Browns DST Hint Hint). The Saints may display a ton of their Swiss-Army knife of Hill on Saturday for his rushing, passing, and catching abilities.

Browns

The Browns’ new feature quarterback Deshawn Watson has looked mediocre, in decent weather, he’s barely come close to 20 fantasy points. Working from behind one of the best offensive lines in football, the Browns will lean on their bell cow, Nick Chubb. He’s been disappointing lately, but the Saints have given up over 250 yards on the ground in their last three games. Rub a dub with Chubb.

Cash: Browns DST

GPP: N. Chubb, T. Hill

Falcons @ Ravens (-7.5) (O/U 35.5)

Falcons

We got a decent dose of the Desmond Ridder experience last week, but it was more of a Tyler Algeier week after he rushed for 139 yards and a touchdown. Ridder showed the true colors of his inexperience, but there was chemistry with fellow rookie Drake London, who caught seven balls for 70 yards. The Falcons will see another tough matchup on the road in Baltimore out in the cold where it will be difficult to rush against their 6th-in DVOA run defense, and passing into the wind. play it safe and keep away from the dirty birds, or pay up for the Raven DST.

Ravens

The only thing keeping the Ravens afloat in the playoff race has been their defense and J K Dobbins as of late. Besides losing last week to the Browns, opposing teams have been held under 15 points since Week 12. The real story for the Ravens’ success without Lamar Jackson has been hot off IR Dobbins, who has rushed for over 100 yards in both games, scoring one TD. He’ll see plenty of action against an Atlanta team that gives up 130 yards per game, for under $6K on DraftKings I’m all in on Dobbins. Let’s not forget about tight end Mark Andrews though. I know he’s been on a milk carton, but the man is just due a solid game. He finally will see a below-average defender (28th against tight ends) and has a ceiling that could break the slate for the position.

Cash: J. Dobbins, Raven DST

GPP: M. Andrews

Commanders @ Niners (-7) (O/U 38)

Commanders

Washington caught a tough break from a few bad penalty calls in last week’s loss to the Giants. San Fransisco will not show them any sympathy on the road, as they could put the Commanders’ offense in a vise on Saturday (1st in DVOA for run defense). Running back Antonio Gibson saw a 60 % snap share while trailing New York as the pass-catching option in the backfield for Washington. Gibson may be involved in a similar role against a Niner team that has been scoring at will, forcing Washington to again play catch-up. He’ll be a treat as a low-priced flex option at $5,300 on DraftKings.

Niners

This may be the week we see Brandon Aiyuk finally hit it off with Purdy. The Commanders should stay in their Cover 1 formation, where Aiyuk torched them back in 2020 for 10 receptions on 16 targets for 119 yards. In a game unaffected by the bad weather across the country, lightning may strike twice with Aiyuk facing Washington’s beatable corners of St.-Juste and Fuller.

Cash: B. Aiyuk

GPP: A. Gibson

Eagles @ Cowboys (-5) (O/U 47.5)

Eagles

The Eagles are in Dallas and will be without the front-runner for MVP, Jalen Hurts, who suffered a shoulder injury against Chicago in Week 15. But backup Gardner Minshew is no stranger to the football field, leading the Jaguars to seven wins from 2019-2020. Hands down he is probably the best second-string QB out there and built great chemistry with tight end Dallas Goedert, hooking up for two touchdowns in Week 13 of last season. Philadelphia is at full strength offensively now with Goedert back from IR but will be a different team without Hurts‘ running threat, in turn giving more volume to Miles Sanders.

Cowboys

The Philly corners Bradberry and Slay have been two book ends in the secondary, crushing every receiver in sight. Dallas will need to move the ball with CeeDee Lamb on the inside to line up across slot corner Avonte Maddox, giving him a huge mismatch in height and speed. The other approach for the Cowboys will be to run the rock with Pollard right up the gut. Screens, outlets, and toss passes will be on the menu for the new sheriff in the Dallas’ backfield.

Cash: M. Sanders, C. Lamb, T. Pollard

GPP: G. Minshew, D. Goedert, D. Smith, A. Brown, Eagles DST

Cash Core

P. Mahomes, D. Henry, M. Sanders, J. Jefferson, T. Kelce

GPP Core

D. Jones, N. Chubb, I. Pacheco, D. Metcalf, M. Andrews, DJ Moore

Stacks

P. Mahomes/T. Kelce/I. Pacheco….G. Smith/DK Metcalf/M. Goodwin/N. Fant

D. Jones/ D. Slayton/S. Barkley…K. Cousins/J. Jefferson/D. Cook/K. Osborn

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 16. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

If you didn’t make the playoffs in your season long, then welcome to DFS if you are just joining us! Week 14 we crushed, what else is new? Russell Wilson blew up your lineup can you believe it? He was in our cash game breakdown along with Jerry Jeudy catching three touchdowns. Time to break down Week 15 and get back into the money once again. Remember to check in on our discord for all news and questions to help you get ready for Sunday’s ten-game slate. This article is here to help you decide on a strategy for who to pick up in DFS from each game of the slate, so let’s do this!

Sunday Main Slate 12/18/22

Eagles @ Bears (+9) (O/U 48.5)

Eagles

The number one MVP candidate Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles should continue their onslaught of the NFL in Chicago. The Bears have been unable to stop anybody from scoring points let alone the best team in the NFL. It will be an air raid, forming a big lead by halftime and then running it down Chicago’s throat in the second half. Start up as many Eagles as possible, the more the merrier.

Bears

Justin Fields has been cleared to play, but is it worth putting him out there against one of the top defenses in the league? If he can pay off his salary, it would have to be with his legs, but that’s a very risky move this week (2nd in DVOA to quarterbacks). Chicago’s top receiver Darnell Mooney went down with a season-ending injury before their bye week, leaving Cole Kmet as the only game in town. But to be safe, stay away from the Bears and start the Philly defense, which could have less than 10% ownership.

Cash: J. Hurts, A. Brown, D. Smith, M. Sanders

GPP: D. Goedert (if activated off IR), C. Kmet

Cowboys @ Jaguars (+4) (O/U 48)

Cowboys

Dallas has been leaning on their run game with their one-two-punch of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, keeping them in the playoff picture. The success of the game plan in retrospect has driven down the volume and DFS salary of quarterback Dak Prescott. Although I do like both running backs along with Cee Dee Lamb and Schultz, Dak is just way too cheap to pass up on, especially against Jacksonville (26th DVOA to quarterbacks)

Jaguars

There are going to be some points to be put up on the scoreboard in this game, and with the Jaguars most likely playing from behind, Trevor Lawrence should be busy. The Cowboys love the blitz, so he’ll need to get the ball out quickly, and what better receiver than Christian Kirk? As he approaches 1000 yards with seven touchdowns on the season, Kirk will lineup in the slot and use his great separation ability to move the chains.

Cash: D. Prescott, E. Elliot, T. Pollard, C. Lamb

GPP: C. Kirk, D Schultz, T. Lawrence

Chiefs @ Texans (+14) (O/U 49)

Chiefs

Kansas City rolls into Houston as heavy favorites, so there’s always the factor of a very safe but pricey Patrick Mahones and Travis Kelce may sit out in the second half. This brings rookie running back Isaiah Pacheco back into the conversation. He’ll be a safe investment facing the Texans’ 32nd in DVOA run defense in a positive game script. Don’t fall for the trap of Jerick McKinnon, this game will be dominated, and his third-down capabilities will not be needed in this one. check out that Chiefs DST too. Houston has been playing quarterback musical chairs lately, which could spell out some turnovers.

Texans

The 2023 drive can’t get here any sooner for Houston. As we watch Lovie Smith play around with quarterbacks in tight ends who knows what will see out there? One thing for sure is Chris Moore. Receiver Nico Collins was ruled out and Brandin Cooks has been asking for a trade, possibly faking his injuries all season. Making for the second week in a row, Chris Moore is the top option again in Houston, against a pass-friendly defense in Kansas City (32nd DVOA to receivers).

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, I. Pacheco, Chiefs DST

GPP: C. Moore

Lions @ Jets (-1) (O/U 44.5)

Lions

Jared Goff on the road has not looked good this season. And against the stingy Jets’ defense, I’d be a little weary of taking any Detroit players this weekend. The weather looks to be cold and wet in New Jersey, but with news breaking that Mike White will sit and Zach Wilson is back under center, give me that Lions DST all day.

Jets

Say it ain’t so Coach Salah! Mike White’s ribs will sit him down forcing second-year quarterback Zach Wilson back into the mix. This crushes, the dreams of having Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore in so many lineups this weekend, leaving The only safe play as running back Bam Knight. But don’t forget Jared Goff is in town to play in the elements, take a shot with the Jets DST baby!

Cash: Z. Knight

GPP: Jets DST, Lions DST

Steelers @ Panthers (-3) (O/U 37.5)

Steelers

Oh boy, this could get ugly. Kenny Pickett is doubtful, which could lead to a quarterback timeshare of the biscuit Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph. Even if Pittsburgh chooses to run the ball hard with Najee, he’s been banged up all season. Give me some of that Carolina DST.

Panthers

The Sam Darnold experience hasn’t been too bad, as they make a run at the NFC south division. The top pass catch and stud DJ Moore was shaken up by a knee sprain, which may lead to Terrace Marshall getting a few extra looks. For $3,500 on DraftKings, he’s worth a gander.

Cash: Carolina DST

GPP: T. Marshall, DJ Moore (if healthy)

Falcons @ Saints (-4.5) (O/U 43.5)

Falcons

It’s officially Desmond Ridder season. So we shall wait and see, where we may have a nice connection with fellow rookie Drake London. But they would be very risky in DFS this weekend, take a shot in a GPP if you’re feeling lucky. rookies do make rookie mistakes so the Saints’ DST would be a nice play here.

Saints

Well, the Big Easy will be rolling with Andy Dalton again at quarterback. Let’s not even go there, Alvin Kamara will own the entire backfield now that Mark Ingram is done for the season, and at $6,800 on DraftKings, I’m all in. New Orleans’ punt-tight end of the year could be back on the field as well, go grab Juwan Johnson if he’s available.

Cash: A. Kamara

GPP: J. Johnson, Saints DST, D. London, D. Ridder

Patriots @ Raiders (+1) (O/U 44.5)

Patriots

Mac Jones and the Patriots will try to lock up the seventh seed in the AFC in Sin City, a game with some potential for fireworks. But they’ve been hit badly by injuries to the running back and receiver positions. Lucky for them to be playing the Raiders, who cannot even defend against AARP members (27th DVOA to quarterbacks) these days. Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and Ty Thornton may hit a ton of value at receiver, and Damien Harris (if healthy) at running back would take over for the injured Rhamondre Stevenson. Otherwise, go in deep for Pierre Strong or Kevin Harris for a Milli-Maker shot!

Raiders

If the Raiders do somehow manage to make it into the playoffs, it will be on the shoulders of Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. The window is getting smaller and smaller, so it may be more on Adams this week because of the tough run defense of the Patriots. Adams is a lock all around DFS, especially since Derek Carr put on his blinders, solely looking for him to get open all year.

Cash: D. Adams, D. Harris (if he plays)

GPP: N.Agholor, K. Bourne, T. Thornton, H. Henry, P. Strong/K. Harris ( if D. Harris is out)

Cardinals @ Broncos (-3) (O/U 36)

Cardinals

So who will be throwing the ball and calling plays in Arizona this weekend? We all saw Kyler Murray go down Monday night and now backup Colt McCoy is banged up. Hopkins is safe with McCoy, but who knows if McSorley can keep the Cardinals’ number-one receiver fed. The only reliable play in Arizona would be James Conner, who would be in line for a ton of work due to the shakiness at quarterback.

Broncos

With a low-point total, a shaky backup, and a possible third-string quarterback, the Bronco defense is a must–start. Denver has issues at quarterback too with Russell Wilson, who may not play. Enter backup Brett Rypien, who has a huge man crush on tight ends(8 targets). He will be all over Dulcich if he gets the call, otherwise, we pivot to Jeudy again if Russell plays.

Update: Wilson is out, with Courtland Sutton and Kendall Hinton… Fire up Jeudy!,

McSorely starting for the Cardinals

Cash: Broncos DST

GPP: J. Conner, G. Dulcich, J. Jeudy

Bengals @ Bucs (+3.5) (O/U 44)

Bengals

The Bucs’ secondary will be a hot mess on Sunday, especially now without cornerback Jamel Dean. Fellow corner Sean Murphy–Bunting along with safeties Antoine Winfield and Mike Edwards may also miss Week 15, making it open season for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Great news for Joe Burrow, and even Joe Mixon now that Tampa will also be without defensive tackle Veta Veya. Stack up on the Bengals for a possible slate-breaker!

Bucs

If Tampa looks to lock up the NFC South and keep their playoff hopes alive, they’ll need to start making some plays. They can, and Brady is due for a monster game. What he lacks with his legs he can make up for with his passing attempts, and for $5,500 on DraftKings, I would take a shot. He’s your pay-down quarterback of the week, with both All-Pro receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in line for the usual heavy workload.

Cash: T. Brady, J. Chase, J. Mixon, C. Godwin

GPP: J. Burrow, M. Evans, T. Higgins

Titans @ Chargers (-3) (O/U 47.5)

Titans

If we’re looking to pay up this week at running back, look no further than Derrick Henry. The Chargers have struggled all season defending the run (28th in DVOA), allowing close to 150 RuYDS/game. Henry could hit that mark by halftime at Sofy Stadium. He won’t run every down though, so when Tannehill looks to throw it downfield, his new shiny toy Chig Okonkwo will be there on the receiving end. Both are safe, but chalky plays in Tennessee.

Chargers

Tennessee defends against the pass as well as the Chargers against the run…terribly. The Titans have been a pass-funnel defense at second to last in DVOA on the year, putting Justin Herbert and his receivers in the driver’s seat. Give me a stack of powder blue jerseys in my lineups this weekend and I could sleep like a baby. Allen, Ekeler, and Williams can roll out in any game style, but Gerald Everett would be sneaky.

Cash: D. Henry, J. Herbert, K. Allen

GPP: C. Okonkwo, A. Ekeler, M. Williams, G. Everett

Cash Core

J. Hurts, D. Henry, J. Chase, C. Moore, T. Kelce

GPP Core

T. Brady, M. Sanders, D. Adams. I. Pacheco, G. Dulcich

Stacks

T. Brady, C. Godwin, M. Evans, W/ Run-back J. Mixon or J. Burrow, J. Chase, T. Higgs

J. Herbert, K. Allen, M. Williams, W/ Run-back D. Henry

P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, I. Pacheco, W/ Run-back C. Moore

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 15. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

Week 13 in the books and it was a monster for us! A less than one percent-owned Trent Sherfield smashed in our lineups for over 14 fantasy points, we sweated it out for that one bomb he caught and it paid off for us! Let’s get right into Week 14’s breakdown, where we may find another scratch-off winner like Sherfield..who knows?! It’s a tight slate this week with six teams on bye, and as the player pool shrinks, the less of a margin for error. Stay on our Discord for all news, questions, and expert analysis. Week 14 is here fellas, are we ready…Here we go!

Sunday Main Slate 12/11/22

Vikings @ Lions (-2.5) (O/U 53)

Vikings

Well, here it is on a silver platter ladies and gentlemen, the game of the week. In what appears to be the contest to attack in DFS with a 53 under/over, pick up a few purple jerseys for your lineups. Jefferson put up a dud in their first meeting, so I anticipate some retribution from number 18. By all means, mix it up and grab other pieces to be different…Cousins, Dalvin, Thielen, and oh yeah my favorite Viking, The Hock. Detroit tossed him to the side for draft capital back in Week 8, so you know he is destined to get in the box against his old teammates in his old stomping ground. Minnesota has put up 60 points in the last two games, Let’s ride!

Lions

Same scenario here guys, grab your Lions. Both Detroit and Minnesota allow the most points (25) and total yardage (400YDS/Game) in the league. When two teams face off with bad defenses, it’s a DFS match made in heaven. Jared Goff may be the most popular quarterback of the slate, because of his price and upside. Amon-Ra Is on a serious heater scoring over 30 fantasy points in two games, sign me up. But let’s get different on the Detroit side too. Running backs Jamal Williams, the end zone monster with 14 touchdowns and D’Andre Swift are both enticing under $6K on DraftKings, but how about DJ Chark? He could be sneaky against a Vikings’ 30th DVOA to receivers and easily give us another repeat performance of 14 fantasy points.

Cash: K. Cousins, J. Jefferson, A. St. Brown, J. Goff

GPP: D. Cook, J. Williams, DJ Chark, TJ Hockenson, D. Swift

Eagles @ Giants (+7) (O/U 45.5)

Eagles

Philly could roll into Met Life Stadium and steamroll over a Giants’ team destroyed by injuries on both sides of the ball. Besides New York’s already beat-up secondary, they now lose their top pass rusher, Leonard Williams, this Sunday. Fly Eagles Fly… Hurts is always cash and GPP-friendly, and his teammates AJ Brown, and Devonta Smith pair nicely if you can squeeze their hefty salaries in. But we may see more of a Miles Sanders-type of game script. He may see plenty of carries against a 26th DVOA run defense, chewing up the clock against a Giants’ team that could struggle to move the chains.

Giants

The slot has been the key way to get the ball moving against the tough-as-nails Eagles’ defense. Punt alert, Ritchie James…let’s roll! The Giants most likely will be playing from behind all game, and with Saquon Barkley now on the injury report, quarterback Danny Jones becomes the best rusher by default (if Barkley sits out). Another nice dart throw…Rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger has built some chemistry with Jones, picking up where he left off after an eye injury and getting five looks. Well worth a shot at $3,300 on DraftKings, who’s no stranger to the end zone (3TDs).

Cash: J. Hurts, AJ Brown, D. Smith

GPP: M. Sanders, D. Jones, D. Bellinger, R. James

Jets @ Bills (-9.5) (O/U 43.5)

Jets

In his third start this season, quarterback Mike White will have his feet put to the fire against a tough Buffalo defense on the road. Will he get to throw it 57 times like in Minnesota? Not a chance, but bet your last dollar the ball will be aimed at the rookie Garrett Wilson, who caught eight of an insane 15 targets. Although I’m positive the Buffalo defensive coordinator has something in store for Garrett after watching the tape, so taking a stab at Elijah Moore for $3,500 on DraftKings would be sexy in a GPP.

Bills

Buffalo needs this game to stay on top of the division and even up the score with New York. The bills go as far as their leader Josh Allen will take them. He’s got a tough match up but that didn’t stop him back in Week 9 from putting up 27 fantasy points in a road loss to New York. The Jets have been stingy to receivers ranking 6th in DVOA, so we may not want to pay up for Diggs this week. It’s feeling like a paydown week in Buffalo for me, and it’s for a chalk-a-potomous James Cook at $4,600 on DraftKings. The rookie caught six passes on top of rushing for 64 yards last week and appears to be moving in on Devon Singletary’s job at the moment.

Cash: J. Allen, G. Wilson

GPP: E. Moore, J. Cook

Browns @ Bengals (-6) (O/U 47)

Browns

Well, you got what you paid for if you took DeShaun Watson last week, a six-burger. Nick Chubb also had an off game in Houston, but he wasn’t needed since the Cleveland Browns’ defense put up 30 fantasy points themselves. I’ll look for him to bounce back this weekend against Cincinnati, pairing him with that defense that went from putting up 30 fantasy points to second cheapest on the slate…Who is in charge of the pricing on DK? As for Watson, I’m still in wait-and-see mode, but Amari Cooper did see the most targets (9) from the Browns’ new signal caller, if he plays he’s a tournament darling.

Bengals

Cleveland has owned Burrow for his career but is when Joe breaks out of his slump against his division rival. On paper, it does with a healthy Chase, Tee Higgins, and of course Joe Mixon, who may see a ton of work after missing a game from a concussion, against one of the worst run defenses in football. Don’t forget about Watson’s egg he laid in Houston either. He’ll get there eventually, but this week he may still show some rust. Give me a piece of the Bengals’ defense too.

Cash: J. Burrow, J. Mixon, N. Chubb, J. Chase

GPP: A. Cooper, T. Higgins, Browns DST, Bengals DST

Texans @ Cowboys (-17) (O/U 44.5)

Texans

Well, it looks like Houston is mailing it in for the season for the number one pick. Receivers Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins have already been ruled out, opening up the entire offense for the rookie Dameon Pierce. We may not want to go that route though, as 17-point underdogs the Texans will be playing from behind a ton. Davis Mills will be returning as the starter and will have Chris Moore and Philip Dorsett to target, providing us some value this weekend at receiver.

Cowboys

The absolute worst rushing defense will face one of the best backfield duos in the league this weekend in Dallas. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott have averaged a combined 30 fantasy points per game this season, a plug-and-play for a slot or two at running back in DFS. I don’t mind rolling them both out there at the same time either, stack them with that Dallas defense too, if you can afford them.

Cash: T. Pollard, Cowboys DST, E. Elliot

GPP: C. Moore, P. Dorsett

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5) (O/U 41.5)

Jaguars

Receiver Christian Kirk came through big time last week as we called it, but it might be a Zay Jones kind of day in Tennessee. The Titans just do not blitz, which should open up a lot of routes for Jones, If he plays. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence does have a bum foot but we’ll give it a go, so let’s wait and see some news on Zay’s injury.

Titans

Treylon Burks, Tennessee’s number-one receiver, won’t make it out on the field this weekend. No worries, Tennessee will just keep riding the Derek Henry train until he falls off the tracks. Maybe not this Sunday though, as he has plowed over Jacksonville for his career. In his last three games since the 2020 season, he has rushed for a total of 429 yards with five touchdowns. He’ll have low ownership again this weekend, so jam him in your GPP lineups.

Cash: D. Henry

GPP: Z. Jones

Ravens @ Steelers (-2.5) (O/U 37)

Ravens

Baltimore as we all know by now will be without quarterback Lamar Jackson with a knee issue. Backup Tyler Huntley gets the start, where we probably won’t see much of a drop-off in an offense that is bone dry in weapons. Huntley is a risk, but as we have seen in previous starts Mark Andrews gets all the love when he is under center. Last season In five games alongside Huntley, Mark Andrews totaled 43 catches for 498 yards and three touchdowns.

Steelers

I’ve mentioned Huntley as a risky play, and he’s coughed up the ball four times in four starts in 2021. The Pittsburgh DST is a great play at home especially if TJ Watt gets on the field. Now Kenny Pickett didn’t give us what we expected in Atlanta, but I like the rookie at home against the Baltimore secondary who is 25th in DVOA to quarterbacks. $5,200 on DraftKings is a huge value on a slate trying to roster pieces from Detroit and Minnesota.

Cash: Steelers DST, M. Andrews

GPP: T. Huntley, K. Pickett

Chiefs @ Broncos (+9) (O/U 43)

Chiefs

The matchup looks grim on paper but that shouldn’t keep us from taking one of the best quarterback/tight end duos in history. Mahomes and Kelce should see some low ownership this weekend, jam them in tournaments too. But I still can’t stop clicking on Pacheco! Less than 10 percent owned and for two weeks finding the endzone, he’s like found money. And let’s not forget about the defense cheat code for DFS, Broncos country…the Chiefs DST is in play here.

Broncos

Is the season over yet? That’s what everybody in Denver has been saying since Week 1. It makes me nauseous of the thought of taking Russell Wilson for $5,200 on DraftKings, but it’s the Chiefs who are one of the most pass-friendly defenses (27th in DVOA). And now without Courtland Sutton this Sunday, Jerry Jeudy is a lock for volume for a bargain at $5,400 on DraftKings.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, J. Jeudy

GPP: R. Wilson, I. Pacheco, Chiefs DST

Panthers @ Seahawks (-4.5) (O/U 43.5)

Panthers

DJ Moore is the guy again in Carolina since Sam Darnold has been plugged back in at quarterback for the Panthers. Last week he only saw six looks, but they cashed in for four grabs with 103 yards and a touchdown. Hey but wait a sec, remember D’Onta Foreman? The dude has had four 100-yard games with four touchdowns since taking over McCaffrey. Facing the second-worst run defense in Seattle? Yea, I like them apples.

Seahawks

The Seahawk backfield has been hit hard by injuries, and we still don’t know if Kenneth Walker III or backup DeeJay Dallas will be able to go. Head coach Pete Carroll may want to just throw it all day, and nobody can guard DK Metcalf. But is Travis Homer worth a shot at in the Seattle running back committee? I think he is. On their depth chart, Homer is the true second back on the depth chart, seeing 30 percent of the snaps when Walker was dominating the position. Now that he’s healthy again, he could be very sneaky as a flex in a tournament.

Cash: DJ Moore, DK Metcalf

GPP: T. Homer (if Walker III is out), D. Foreman

Bucs @ Niners (-3.5) (O/U 37)

Bucs

We are still waiting on some news out of Tampa regarding the status of Fournette. If he can’t roll out, lock up Rashaad White. Don’t drink the kool-aid on San Francisco being a shut-down run defense either, they just haven’t seen any big threats in my opinion. The Chargers, Falcons, and Bears all feasted in rushing, leaving no reason for White to get his. One more nugget I’d like to add via Stix… Julio Jones could be this week’s Trent Sherfield fellas. For only $4,000 on DK he has a clear height advantage over the Niners’ worst corner Lenoir. Julio is a well-worth dart throw on a very unowned receiver for the slate.

Niners

Well, it’s officially Brock Purdy season, since Jimmy G broke his foot last week against the Dolphins. The rookie filled in nicely, throwing two touchdowns in the victory. The Niners should take the ultra-conservative approach moving forward, relying mostly on their defense and keeping the ball in their playmakers like McCaffrey. CMC’s workload may be on the rise, but risky until we see what we get on Sunday. If you’re feeling lucky, take a dirt cheap Purdy ($5,100 on DraftKings) in a GPP and mix it up in cash or a tournament with McCaffrey.

Cash: R. White (if Fournette is out), C. McCaffrey (GPP too)

GPP: B. Purdy, J. Jones

Cash Core

J. Hurts/A. St. Brown/J. Mixon/T. Pollard/M. Andrews

GPP Core

J. Goff/Z. Jones(if he plays)/D. Henry/TJ Hockenson/DJ Moore

Stacks

J. Goff/A. St. Brown/J. Williams/DJ Chark/D. Swift

K. Cousins/J. Jefferson/D. Cook/TJ Hockenson

J. Hurts/AJ Brown/D. Smith/M. Sanders

J. Burrow/J. Chase/T. Higgins/J. Mixon

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 14. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.