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NFL DFS GPP

Stix Picks: NFL DFS Week 8

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Welcome back to the Week 8 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a full 13-game slate with a wide variety of totals. Due to a lot of work travel this week, this will be a very brief article in more of a cheatsheet format. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 8:
– Miami Dolphins (28)
– Baltimore Ravens (27)
– Kansas City Chiefs (26.5)
– Dallas Cowboys (26)
– Philadelphia Eagles (25.5)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc.

High-Priced

Patrick Mahomes ($8,400 DK / $9,200 FD) – A pass-first offense against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Will Denver have enough fire power to keep this one close? I doubt it, but if they do, this is another great spot for Mahomes
Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK / $9,200 FD) – My top quarterback on the slate against a dreadful Washington defense. The rushing upside and red-zone rushing boosts his floor higher than anyone.
Dak Prescott ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD) – More interested on DraftKings, but a nice value in the GPP space. The AETY Model loves Dak coming off of the bye against a weak Rams’ defensive unit.
Joe Burrow ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – Burrow fresh off a bye week against a pass-funnel defense at sub 5% ownership? Sign me all the way up. How is Dak more expensive?

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, CJ Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. Over the past few years, I’ve been prioritizing running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

Alvin Kamara ($7,300 DK / $8,300 FD)
D’Andre Swift ($6,300 DK / $7,700 FD) – Crazy affordable for one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. I’m a big fan of rolling out the Hurts-Swift-Brown double stack this week.
Isiah Pacheco ($6,100 DK / $7,400 FD) – Cash game staple again this weekend. The usage is solid, yet confusing at times, but this is the most reliable “value” piece of the Chiefs’ offense.
Bijan Robinson ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – I wouldn’t be able to stomach it in single entry contests, but if you’re looking to get crazy different against what was once a stout run defense, I can’t imagine a severely discounted Bijan garners over 5-8% ownership. Excellent pivot if you’re fading the slate favorite, Breece Hall.
Breece Hall ($5,900 DK / $7,200 FD) – Great price. Great matchup.
Dameon Pierce ($5,300 DK / $6,700 FD) – GPP only, but the best matchup for opposing running backs. I’ll roll the dice in tournaments that Pierce is still the top runner in the Houston backfield.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert, Tony Pollard, Kareem Hunt (DK Only), Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

Targets per Routes Ran	Quarterback’s First Read	Air Yard Leaders (Team Share)
Tyreek Hill	Garrett Wilson	AJ Brown
Rashee Rice	AJ Brown	Brandon Aiyuk
Kadarius Toney	Ja’Maar Chase	Tyreek Hill
Cooper Kupp	Cooper Kupp	George Pickens
AJ Brown	Puka Nacua	Garrett Wilson
Puka Nacua	Tyreek Hill	Marquise Brown
Brandon Aiyuk	DeAndre Hopkins	Ja’Maar Chase
Ja’Maar Chase	Adam Thielen	Amari Cooper
Jaylen Waddle	George Pickens	DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins	Michael Pittman	Cooper Kupp

New: Chart I log/pull from Fantasy data outlets to help uncover some of the better wide receivers on the slate.

AJ Brown ($8,000 DK / $8,700 FD) – What else does he need to do to be priced up with Cooper Kupp?
Puka Nacua ($7,900 DK / $8,000 FD) – Love Cooper Kupp as well, but might as well take the discount with Puka. It appears this game is going to be under-owned.
CeeDee Lamb ($7,600 DK / $7,800 FD) – No one is going to pay this much for a less-than-stellar (fantasy points wise) CeeDee Lamb. One of the top GPP targets of mine this week against the Rams’ struggling secondary.
Chris Olave ($6,400 DK / $7,300 FD) – Our weekly pick on the Colts’ secondary play. Surprisingly, Olave’s usage in the slot is on the rise and this open up Michael Thomas ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) as a nice value target as well. Having said that, I’d still rather use Olave for the play-making upside when he is on the outside.
Garrett Wilson ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD) – My second favorite GPP play on the board. Perfect leverage against the chalky Breece Hall and a perfect matchup for Mr. Wilson.
Tee Higgins ($5,900 DK / $6,800 FD) – GPP Only, but the AETY Model has a significant coverage advantage to Tee Higgins. At these prices, Higgins is a great value against a pass-funnel San Francisco defense.
Zay Flowers ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD) – Dumb price. Cash game staple at the least.
Nico Collins ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – DraftKings cash staple without Robert Woods.

Punt-Values:
Michael Gallup
Demario Douglas

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Maar Chase, Christian Watson, Drake London, Terry McLaurin, Tank Dell, Romeo Doubs

Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,400 DK / $9,000 FD) –It’s Travis Kelce. He’s by far and away the top tight-end on the slate per usual.
Mark Andrews ($6,400 DK / $7,700 FD) – Preferred him last week at the discount and the coverage advantage. Won’t talk you off playing a top-tier tight-end.
George Kittle ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD)
Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,700 FD) – Great price and a nice coverage boost against the Steelers heavy Cover-1 usage.
Trey McBride ($2,800 DK / $4,700 FD) – Not a great matchup, but the popular punt-play with Ertz on IR.

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Jalen Hurts
Isiah Pacecho
Breece Hall
Nico Collins
Zay Flowers

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Joe Burrow
Tee Higgins
Ja’Maar Chase
George Kittle

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

2 years ago 0 comments

Stix Picks: NFL DFS Week 7

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Welcome back to the Week 7 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a small 10-game slate with some disgustingly low totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DK / $9,200 FD) – In all honesty, this is a gross slate with a wide variety of pay-up chalk, and value chalk. At the quarterback position, the AETY Model strongly feels the best way to move forward is to simply play the best player at the position one one of the best offenses on the slate who is projected for the most pass attempts and passing yards on the slate (also the only respectably high game total). If Patrick Mahomes comes in under 10% in ownership (currently projected for that 5-10% range), that will be a crime.

I will not be reinventing the wheel at the most important position in DFS this week.

Stack Options: Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco, Kadarius Toney
Bring-Back Options: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett
Matthew Stafford ($6,500 DK / $6,700 FD) – Quite affordable on FanDuel but certainly in play on DraftKings. If you’re looking to pay down at quarterback, it’s really only Stafford or Geno Smith in my opinion (maybe Watson in a GPP). Stafford has the second highest implied probability in the AETY Model to lead this slate in pass attempts (behind Mahomes) and should lean on his healthy receiving core with the massive question mark at the running back position this week. The Steelers secondary is not what it used to be.

Stack Options: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua
Bring-Back Options: George Pickens, Diontae Johnson
Geno Smith ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – On FanDuel, you probably just take the $300 savings and go to Stafford (if you’re paying down), but on DraftKings, Geno Smith is likely to be the highest owned quarterback on the slate. I’ll likely be a hard pass in NFL DFS GPP tournaments, but will give Geno a serious look in cash games. As mentioned last week, this Arizona Cardinal defense has fallen flat down to earth and bleeds production to any facet of the opposing offense.

Stack Options: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker
Bring-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Michael Wilson

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson (FanDuel), Jordan Love, DeShaun Watson (GPP only)

NFL DFS Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($8,600 DK / $8,200 FD) – In GPP’s, I’ll likely be prioritizing a sub-10% owned, Austin Ekeler. It’s not a sexy matchup as the Chiefs have been incredibly stingy to opposing running backs this season, but Ekeler is not your standard running back. When looking at his actual route tree and projections from the AETY Model, Austin Ekeler is damn-near a wide receiver who happens to get 10-15 carries and goal-line work. At this price, there is a lot that can go against Ekeler’s chances at having a ceiling game, but on the other side of the Chargers’ offense is Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. On a slate where 80% of the games have totals around 40-points or below, I will sleep just fine knowing I attacked the fastest pace game (by a wide margin) with the best offenses on the slate.
Josh Jacobs ($7,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – It was very tough for me to include Josh Jacobs in this Week’s rundown, but it looks like he’ll be challenging Kenneth Walker for the highest owned running back on the slate. In GPP’s, I’d much rather PAY LESS for Bijan Robinson (that sounds weird to see Bijan cheaper than Jacobs). On the bright side, Jacobs is an absolute workhorse and very active in the passing game which will bode well as the Bears’ rank dead last in DVOA against opposing route running backs. I’ll only consider him in cash due to the ownership and my preference to Walker or Bijan in this price range for tournaments.
Kenneth Walker ($7,000 DK / $8,800 FD) – Pricey as hell on FanDuel, but it looks like KW3 is going to be the only game in town out of Seattle’s backfield with rookie Zach Charbonnet doubtful to suit up. I always try to find a way to fade a 40% owned running back, but it’ll be incredibly difficult to do that this weekend. Walker is averaging over 18 DraftKings’ points-per-game as-is, and now gets one of the best matchups on the slate against the Cardinals and their 30th ranked run defense (DVOA). Surprisingly, the Seahawks also grade inside the top-10 in run blocking. It’s tough to find a reason to not play Walker everywhere.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300 DK / $6,200 FD) – Unreal price on FanDuel, but certainly in play for DraftKings with the full-point PPR. I’m currently seeing ownership projections in the 25-35% range on BOTH NFL DFS outlets… we might as well ride the wave with Gibbs in our cash game lineups. Craig Reynolds is banged up, so we should get a nice day of work for the rookie… I don’t love that Dan Campbell said that, lol. There is just something about coach speak that rubs me the wrong way. Having said that, the weather in Baltimore will likely lead to more of an emphasis on the shorter passing routes where Gibbs thrives. This is still a run-first offense with or without Montgomery.
Isiah Pachecho ($6,100 DK / $7,400 FD) – I’ll keep writing up Pacheco as long as his price continues to remain in that mid-tier (on DraftKings). FanDuel has noticed the uptick in usage and rightfully raised his price. Pachecho is starting to become the clear running back in Kansas City which is exactly what Andy Reid used to do with his RB depth chart. McKinnon will still be involved (especially with the red-zone route running), but Pacheco is a staple for 15+ touches on the best offense on this slate.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD) – I prefer Stevenson on DraftKings of course, but he’s in play for GPP lineups on both outlets. Stevenson is going to be one of those mid-tier backs that gets completely ignored by the field as everyone prefers Brian Robinson Jr., Jerome Ford, or pay-up to Pachecho. We know the Patriots are going to try to slow this pace down as much as possible and run the living hell out of the football. We still have to watch Ezekiel Elliott get work, but Stevenson is the preferred option in this backfield. On the PPR side of things, Stevenson averaged five and a half receptions per game against this Bills’ defense in 2022. He’s going to be a cheap source of 15+ touches with receiving upside.
Zach Evans ($4,000 DK / $4,800 FD) – If you need the free-square running back, no need to overthink this one. He likely won’t get the workload Hubbard did last week, but he’s likely the lead running back for an offense with a top-5 implied team total this week.

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley (GPP Only), Bijan Robinson, Aaron Jones, James Cook, Brian Robinson Jr., Javonte Williams (sorry @Ghost), Jerome Ford

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Targets per Routes Ran	Quarterback’s First Read	Air Yard Leaders (Team Share)
Rashee Rice	Davante Adams	Cooper Kupp
Cooper Kupp	Stefon Diggs	DJ Moore
Kadarius Toney	Cooper Kupp	George Pickens
Stefon Diggs	DJ Moore	Marquise Brown
Puka Nacua	Keenan Allen	Stefon Diggs
Davante Adams	Amon-Ra St. Brown	Amari Cooper
Keenan Allen	Puka Nacua	Davante Adams
Amon-Ra St. Brown	Michael Pittman Jr.	Mike Evans
Mike Evans	George Pickens	DK Metcalf
Demario Douglas (my dude!!)	Marquise Brown	Tyler Lockett

New: Chart I log/pull from Fantasy data outlets to help uncover some of the better wide receivers on the slate.

Cooper Kupp ($9,500 DK / $9,700 FD) – Everyone’s #1 wideout for the week is going to be Cooper Kupp. I have nothing negative to say about him and will lock him in to my cash game lineups. He’s always in play in any format for that matter.
Davante Adams ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – I’m AGAIN going to be extremely interested in Davante Adams. Coming off of two down games, Davante Adams gets one of the best matchups on the slate against a Bears’ defense that grades 30th in pass defense DVOA. There is not a corner or a combination of corners that can hang with Adams for Chicago. Squeaky wheel gets the grease!
DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK / $7,700 FD) – Too cheap for someone with the ceiling of Metcalf against the Cardinals’ secondary. I worry about the back-and-forth potential in this game, but if there’s anyone who can go for 150 yards and two scores before half, it’s DK Metcalf.
DJ Moore ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – It’s gross and we all know it, but I’ll always feature the lead wide receiver against the Raiders…. the same reason we loved Bourne on the podcast and discord last week. Bagent is the definition of an unproven rookie, but he will lean on his “X” wideout from the jump. A true, 2-5% owned WR1 in a great matchup.
Amari Cooper ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD) – Our classic spot for the outside receivers against the Colts. I certainly prefer Cooper if Watson does in fact return this week, but like Moore, no one will play this guy if a backup quarterback gets the start. He’s a great GPP play this week.
Terry McLaurin ($5,400 DK / $7,200 FD) – Dirt cheap price on DraftKings and likely half the ownership of Marquise Brown. In GPP contests, I love the idea of Terry McLaurin. Some of the easiest decisions in DFS is playing value-priced, WR1s against bad pass defenses (the Giants are 26th in pass defense DVOA).
Marquise Brown ($5,300 DK / $6,700 FD) – Classic spot every single week, lol. Which realistically should get us off of considering Marquise Brown… There’s nothing really sexy about rostering anything on the Arizona Cardinals, but as you can see in the table above, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is getting WORK! For the price on DraftKings, he’s in play in all formats again for me this week in what should be another excellent gamescript for his path to 3-4x value in fantasy. The Seahawks almost exclusively run Cover-3 zone, and that is where Marquise Brown gets his volume.
Josh Palmer ($4,800 DK / $6,500 FD) – The highest owned wide receiver on the slate. On FanDuel, I’ll probably pass on that price-tag, but will lock him into our cash game lineup on DraftKings. You can play him tournaments (I probably will eat that chalk), but I love the idea of pivoting to a 2% owned, Romeo Doubs (the AETY Model’s #2 value at receiver) if you can afford it.
Rashee Rice ($4,700 DK / $5,600 FD) – Without Justin Watson, something has to give for a full-on Rashee Rice breakout. He’s literally first on this slate in targets per routes ran and should be able to abuse this Chargers’ secondary. The Chargers will show a good bit of Cover-2 (both man and zone) and then Cover-1 Man. Both of those coverages should lead to a significant advantage to both Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. Let’s have a day, Rashee!

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, Courtland Sutton, Romeo Doubs, Kadarius Toney

Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD) –It’s Travis Kelce. He’s by far and away the top tight-end on the slate, but he’s priced like a top-tier wide receiver/running-back.
Mark Andrews ($5,700 DK / $6,900 FD) – A nice discount for an upper echelon tight-end on DraftKings. The Lions’ play nothing but zone defense and that is advantage to Mark Andrews. While the whole field goes to play Zay Flowers, I’m much more interested in pivoting to a 5% owned Mark Andrews.
Kyle Pitts ($4,000 DK / $5,600 FD) – Great price for a mid-tier wide receiver who gets the tight-end tag. I’m always annoyed with Jonnu Smith’s usgage, but these guys are both a focal point in the Falcons’ passing attack. I started looking at Pitts with the lens that he is just a cheap wide receiver with the world of upside. That mindset makes him MUCH easier to stomach when playing him on a weekly basis. Tampa plays a ton of Cover-3 and that’s where Pitts feasts.
Luke Musgrave ($3,300 DK Only) – The punt-chalk tight-end everyone is going to play this week. I’m fine with it for Packers’ stacks or cash game lineups. He’s getting a lot of work and should find plenty of holes in Denver’s Cover-3 and Cover-2 defenses.
Michael Mayer ($2,700 DK / $4,900 FD) – If you really need to go dumpster diving, Michael Mayer has taken the reigns as the TE1 in Las Vegas. His route participation has been on the steady incline over the past three weeks and should continue to fizzle out Austin Hooper. This game is gross, but Mayer has some serious touchdown upside against the Bears’ red-zone defense.
Trey McBride ($2,600 DK / $4,600 FD) – Even more gross than Michael Mayer, but the Cardinals are slowly unleashing their most talented pass-catcher on the team in Trey McBride. McBride’s sole job is to go out and run routes as the Cardinals are chasing points on a weekly basis. My concern with Mayer is that Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Jakobi Meyers are all well ahead of him in the pecking order. Pair that with a likely negative gamescript for Mayer being “needed” against Chicago and it seems like McBride (if you’re completely punting tight-end) is a no-brainer in large field GPP contests only.

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Marquise Brown
Isiah Pacecho
Josh Palmer
Cooper Kupp
Kenneth Walker

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Patrick Mahomes
Austin Ekeler
Rashee Rice
Trey McBride

2 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: NFL DFS Week 6

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Welcome back to the Week 6 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a small 11-game slate with some high totals that we will certainly want to keep an eye on for ownership/leverage/etc! If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a much higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD) – There is significant blowout potential in this game against Carolina, but the Miami Dolphins offense is the best in the NFL and the targets from Tua Tagovailoa are so condensed, it makes the stacking choices very easy. Despite the risk of this game being over in the first half, the Miami passing attack has the highest ceiling on the slate.

Stack Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert
Bring-Back Options: Adam Thielen, DJ Chark Jr., Hayden Hurst
Trevor Lawrence ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD) – The Colts’ secondary (especially on the outside) is a doormat that should lead to plenty of fantasy production for the condensed target share of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The thing I like most about this matchup with the Colts is that they do not generate much pressure (if at all) on opposing quarterbacks. Lawrence has struggled with pressure in his young career and we simply won’t see much of that on Sunday.

Stack Options: Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram
Bring-Back Options: Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs
Joe Burrow ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) – Burrow and the boys are most certainly back! We’re not reinventing the wheel this week in the QB player pool and I’m surprisingly quite comfortable with that. Seattle is the 5th worst pass defense on this slate (DVOA) and the Bengals’ passing attack is finally righting the ship. As long as the weather is respectable (could be quite windy and/or rainy), Joe Burrow and Ja’Maar Chase are right back in a fantasy firework type of environment.

Stack Options: Ja’Maar Chase
Bring-Back Options: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker
Matthew Stafford ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD) – As much as I want to fade the Stafford chalk, the AETY Model says he is the best points-per-dollar play on the board. The Arizona defense is coming back down to show their true colors and Stafford has his main man, Cooper Kupp, back in full action. This is the second worst pass defense (DVOA) on the slate and the oddsmakers must agree when they posted an opening 285 yard passing prop for Stafford (highest on the slate). The Rams offense plays a lot of no huddle and has a high passing rate over expectation… things we like to see when rostering a cheap quarterback in NFL DFS.

Stack Options: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams
Bring-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore

Honorable Mention: Justin Fields, Jimmy Garoppolo

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. Over the past few years, I’ve been prioritizing running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

Alvin Kamara ($6,800 DK / $8,200 FD) – You can certainly play any of the higher priced running backs (CMC, Bijan, Etienne, or Jacobs), but I’ll be using more value at the running back position to help build around the stud wideouts I want to prioritize. Kamara will likely be the highest I go in salary in my single entry GPP lineups. His usage has been through the roof (and I do worry that is coming down), but this is a game against a struggling Houston defense where the Saints will come to play.
Kenneth Walker ($6,700 DK / $8,400 FD) – Too expensive for me on FanDuel, but at 3-5% ownership, Kenneth walker is an excellent GPP pivot against a Bengals’ defense that grades second to last in run defense DVOA. He’s quite touchdown dependent, but he’s a big play waiting to happen at any moment. The Seattle offensive line should be able to have their way with the interior of the Bengals defensive line.
Raheem Mostert ($6,400 DK / $8,500 FD) – The nut-best running back matchup on the board. Sure, we can speculate that Jeff Wilson Jr. or Salvon Ahmed have an annoying role on Sunday, but I don’t want to overthink it… at least in our cash game lineups. Shout-out to FanDuel for getting the price correct.
Joe Mixon ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – There is nothing sexy about Joe Mixon but this guy doesn’t leave the field. His usage is fantastic and is one of the few running backs on this slate that has a path to 18+ touches on a weekly basis. This game is a relatively appealing one from a stacking standpoint and it appears Mixon’s ownership projections are in a free-fall as everyone runs back to Ja’Maar Chase. In tournaments, I can certainly get behind Mixon although we’re begging for some serious goal-line work.
D’Andre Swift ($6,100 DK / $7,200 FD) – He’s going to be extremely popular, but there are just too many good things going for D’Andre Swift and this offensive line (ranked third in run offense DVOA). This Jets’ defense can be ran on and they rank 23rd in DVOA against pass-catching running backs. Swift is the guy in the Eagles backfield whenever the game is in a neutral or one-score environment. It’s hard to pass on this value.
Chuba Hubbard ($4,300 DK / $5,500 FD) – If you need the free-square running back, no need to overthink this one. Hubbard is obviously mis-priced due to a late injury keeping Sanders off the field in Week 6.

Honorable Mention: Bijan Robinson, Travis Etienne Jr., Kyren Williams, Alexander Mattison (absolutely love this spot here, just a little concerned about Cam Akers getting a decent workload)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Targets per Routes Ran	Quarterback’s First Read	Air Yard Leaders (Team Share)
Tyreek Hill	Davante Adams	A.J. Brown
Cooper Kupp	Garrett Wilson	Brandon Aiyuk
Davante Adams	AJ Brown	Tyreek Hill
Brandon Aiyuk	Cooper Kupp	Davante Adams
Puka Nacua	Ja’Maar Chase	Mike Evans (Q)
AJ Brown	DJ Moore	DJ Moore
Mike Evans (Q)	Amon-Ra St. Brown	Garrett Wilson
Ja’Maar Chase	Puka Nacua	Chris Olave
Amon-Ra St. Brown	Michael Pittman Jr.	Amari Cooper
Marquise Brown	Tyreek Hill	Marquise Brown

New: Chart I log/pull from Fantasy data outlets to help uncover some of the better wide receivers on the slate.

Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DK / $8,700 FD) – My #1 wideout for the week is going to be Cooper Kupp. I saw enough last week that Kupp is good to go and will be the featured piece of this Rams’ passing attack. Puka Nacua is a stud, don’t get me wrong, but Nacua being on the field greatly helps Kupp. Let’s ride!
Davante Adams ($8,100 DK / $8,300 FD) – For NFL DFS GPP lineups, I’m going to be extremely interested in Davante Adams. Coming off of a down game against his former team, Davante Williams gets’ a depleted Patriots’ secondary that features J.C. Jackson (who Davante Adams has torched throughout his short tenure in Las Vegas). At 5% ownership, I’ll be doing whatever I can to get exposure to Davante Adams against the Patriots’ Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense.
Calvin Ridley ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – Taking outside receivers against the Colts’ secondary has become a staple in this article. The Colts will play a ton of Cover-3 and mix in some Cover-4, and that is where Calvin Ridley accels in terms of his targets per routes ran with Trevor Lawrence.

I won’t talk you off Christian Kirk ($5,400 DK / $6,600 FD) either. It’s very rare to see someone priced in the low $5K range with a receiving prop over 60-yards. Having said that, when price isn’t a factor, Ridley is my guy versus these coverage schemes.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,300 DK / $6,500 FD) – Great price for a solid matchup to where Pittman has a significant size advantage and coverage upgrades. The Jaguars will show a ton of Cover-3 and Cover-1 defense with a good bit of blitz… All three of the above are advantage Michael Pittman Jr. At 5% ownership, Pittman is best left for GPP’s and/or game-stacks, but the price is lovely if you believe in Gardner Minshew.

Josh Downs ($4,100 DK / $5,600 FD) is also in a nice spot and the ownership will warrant serious consideration to your cash game lineup.
Jordan Addison ($5,700 DK / $6,700 FD) & K.J. Osborn ($4,400 DK / $6,200 FD) – Absolutely loved the 3% ownership smash we had on Jordan Addison last week! Nailed it. This week, this is an honorary write-up due to the matchup against the minor league secondary the Bears’ will trot out and the ownership for both Addison and Osborn. In tournaments, I’ll probably fade the whole situation and maybe pivot to Mattison, but I will not talk anyone off these receivers in this matchup.
Marquise Brown ($5,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – There’s nothing really sexy about rostering anything on the Arizona Cardinals, but as you can see in the table above, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is getting WORK! For the price on DraftKings, he’s in play in all formats.
Drake London ($4,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – London and this Atlanta passing game is finally come alive and the secondary for Washington is less than stellar, to say the least. Washington currently grades 28th in pass defense DVOA and will play a lot of Man-coverage with both single-high and two-high safeties. These are coverages where London has shined. At DraftKings specifically, this is a fantastic price for a true WR1 that no one will play… the only downside here is the potential lack of passing volume in the Falcons’ offense (but that is also factored into the price). No need to mention what the hell DJ Moore, AJ Brown, and Stefon Diggs just did to this secondary.
Salary Relief “Punt” Options: Kendrick Bourne, DJ Chark Jr., Robert Woods, Rondale Moore, Brandon Powell, Jamal Agnew

Honorable Mention: Ja’Maar Chase, DK Metcalf, Chris Olave, DJ Moore, Adam Thielen, Jakobi Meyers, Tyler Lockett

Tight-Ends

Not a whole lot to discuss at the tight-end position this week. You’re either paying up for Hockenson, taking a mid-tier priced Evan Engram, our punting the position. I’ll simply make a list of those targets for the week.

T.J. Hockenson ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – Without Justin Jefferson, I truly believe Hockenson is the biggest benefactor on this offense. He is by far and away the highest floor tight-end on this slate and someone we should highly considering rostering while the field punts at the position.
Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,500 FD)
Zach Ertz ($3,600 DK / $5,200 FD)
Kyle Pitts ($3,500 DK / $5,300 FD)
Logan Thomas ($3,500 DK / $5,400 FD)
Hayden Hurst ($3,100 DK / $4,900 FD) – GPP’s only
Mike Gesicki ($2,600 DK / $4,700 FD) – Risky as all hell and NOT cash-viable. More of a breakdown on the 1st and Stix Podcast.

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Raheem Mostert
Chuba Hubbard
Marquise Brown
Ja’Maar Chase
T.J. Hockenson

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Davante Adams
Drake London
Cooper Kupp

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Stix Picks for NFL DFS Week 5

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Welcome back to the Week 5 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a small 10-game slate with some high totals that we will certainly want to keep an eye on for ownership/leverage/etc! Overall, this will be a short article as I’m taking a very condensed stand on this slate.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. On a small-slate this week, some of the higher total games on the slate the field will love to target will be:

– New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (-10.5) / 49.5 Point Total
– Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ Los Angeles Rams / 51 Point Total
– Kansas City Chiefs (-5) @ Minnesota Vikings / 53.5 Point Total

Jalen Hurts ($8,000 DK / $8,600 FD) – On a slate with very little Quarterback value, I’m likely going to start my build with a star quarterback who has significant rushing upside. In terms of overall floor and ceiling, I don’t think anyone comes close to Jalen Hurts against the Rams defense that grades in the bottom seven on this slate in overall defense DVOA. Hurts is my overall QB1 on this slate (Mahomes is obviously right there) and will be my cash and GPP quarterback. If you do not wish to be that exposed to Hurts (especially in both formats), the Honorable Mention plays below are certainly worth a look.

Stack Options: A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, D’Andre Swift, Dallas Goedert
Bring-Back Options: Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Higbee, Kyren Williams

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes (probably my FanDuel cash quarterback), Anthony Richardson (cash-viable if the ownership is high), Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson (GPP Only)

NFL DFS Running Backs

Bijan Robinson ($7,700 DK / $8,200 FD) – By far the top running back on this slate that has no McCaffrey, Pollard, Walker, Ekeler, etc. The Texans are 28th in run defense DVOA and 27th in DVOA against pass catching running backs. This offense runs through Bijan Robinson and the positive touchdown regression is going to come in a hurry. Let’s play the hell out of him before he gets priced up with Christian McCaffrey. The Falcons’ offensive line should reek havoc in this matchup!
Joe Mixon ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – With a lot of the public heading towards the value running backs in high-total games, Joe Mixon should slide under the radar in a fantastic matchup against the Cardinals 27th ranked run defense (DVOA). This is damn near must-win territory for the struggling Bengals and they will lean on Joe Mixon like they have all season (over 80% of the team’s rushing attempts). Usage is king at the running back position.
De’Von Achane ($6,100 DK / $7,500 FD) – What else can we say about De’Von Achane? This dude is special and Mike McDaniel knows it. We love to see the production and the snap share continuously rise into a playable fantasy rate (over 60% in Week 4) and I’m sure the NFL DFS community will be all over him as well. DFS code would say that you want exposure to double-digit home-favorite running backs and that’s exactly what Achane offers us this week. I would expect to still see a lot of Mostert and perhaps some Ahmed, but Achane has to be their guy when they need a play to be made. Assuming his ownership is north of 20%, I’d lock Achane into your cash game lineups.
D’Andre Swift ($6,000 DK / $7,700 FD) – I left Swift out of the player pool last week and lucked out a bit that he didn’t have a bigger game. I was concerned with the blowout potential against the Commanders and what that would look like from a Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott perspective. This week, we shouldn’t have much blowout concern as the Eagles’ defense is starting to look human and the Rams’ offense can put up points. When the game is within two scores, the Eagles are leaning on D’Andre Swift for their running back touches. Assuming the public flocks to Achane in this price-range, D’Andre Swift may be an excellent GPP pivot in our NFL DFS contests this week. It’s never a bad idea to get exposure to the running back of the team with one of the highest implied team totals on the slate.
Isiah Pachecho ($5,700 DK / $6,600 FD) – The Vikings’ run defense is middle of the pack, but if you want cheap exposure to the lead running back of the highest team total on the slate, Pachecho is your guy. As we likely lock in Travis Kelce in our cash game lineup, I will likely only use Pacheco in GPP builds as we still have come concerns with Jerick McKinnon running routes in the red-zone.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, James Conner, Alexander Mattison

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, the WR pool is going to be tough to load up on, but there is a lot of value!

Targets per Routes Ran	Quarterback’s First Read	Air Yard Leaders
Tyreek Hill	Justin Jefferson	A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown	Puka Nacua	Justin Jefferson
DeAndre Hopkins	Ja’Maar Chase	Tyreek Hill
Puka Nacua	A.J. Brown	Chris Olave
Justin Jefferson	Tyreek Hill	Puka Nacua
Nico Collins 🙂	Michael Pittman	Nico Collins
Amon-Ra St. Brown	Chris Olave	DeAndre Hopkins
Chris Olave	Garrett Wilson	Kendrick Bourne
JuJu Smith-Schuster (what?)	Marquise Brown	Tutu Atwell
Marquise Brown	Amon-Ra. St Brown	Marquise Brown

New: Chart I log/pull from Fantasy data outlets to help uncover some of the better wide receivers on the slate. Minimum of 60 routes ran to qualify.

A.J. Brown ($8,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – I have nothing bad to say about Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill (maybe gamescript for Tyreek Hill, but I’m reaching) for NFL DFS Week 5 lineups. If you can afford them and want to make them a priority play, I will not argue that. My #1 wideout for the week is going to be A.J. Brown. A.J. Brown came into this year as a notorious man-coverage beater (something Raheem Morris is surprisingly implementing a LOT this season) and someone I would always target against defenses with a high man-coverage rate.

2022 Stats vs. Man-Coverage:
– 1st in targets per game
– 1st in receiving yards per game
– 1st in receiving touchdowns per game

The truly impressive thing here is that A.J. Brown has now taken a MASSIVE leap forward in his success and involvement against zone-coverage (the Rams will also play a healthy bit of Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone)… see below. To top it all off, Brown is currently is 4th among ALL wide receivers in overall targets per routes ran.

2023 Stats vs. Cover-3 & Cover-4:
– 2nd in targets per game (trails Puka Nacua)
– Tied for 2nd in receptions per game (trails Puka Nacua and tied with Justin Jefferson)
– 5th in receiving yards per game
– Tied for 2nd in touchdowns per game

The dude is a fantasy and real-life superstar. He’s a full go for me in any format.
Garrett Wilson ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD) – Just way too cheap for a clear target-hog against a putrid defense. I don’t expect a world-beating type of game with this Jets’ offense and Zach Wilson especially, but on DraftKings specifically, this is a great price for the floor Wilson should offer cash game lineups.
DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD) – Ridiculous pricing for Hopkins against this Colts’ secondary. He may not be 2023 Puka Nacua, but this passing game runs through DeAndre Hopkins and like Garrett Wilson, the floor is stupid high in comparison to the price on both NFL DFS outlets. Give D-Hop a serious look in all formats against whatever the Colts throw out in their secondary!
Jordan Addison ($5,300 DK / $5,900 FD) – Obviously, if you can afford Justin Jefferson ($9,400 DK / $9,200 FD) in an expected shootout with a total over 50-points, you play him. I want to attack this game, but it’s going to take a lot of creativity in your build to do so. I’ll likely be getting my Vikings’ exposure via rookie, Jordan Addison. I can’t imagine anyone in the field plays him when he’s surrounded by cheaper/safer WR1s like Nico Collins and others in this article, so I’ll certainly give him a run in GPP contests. It’s certainly risky, but Jordan Addison should see a lot of L’Jarius Sneed in single man-coverage as the Chiefs’ secondary tries to bracket Justin Jefferson.

The anticipated coverage for Kansas City is going to be a lot of man coverage and a decent bit of Cover-4. Addison’s targets per routes ran against those coverages are much higher than his baseline target share. Lastly, despite a couple quiet outings, Addison is still 25th on this slate in air yards. He’s a big play waiting to happen in what could be a back-and-forth fantasy point explosion on all sides of spectrum.
Marquise Brown ($5,000 DK / $6,400 FD) – There’s nothing really sexy about rostering anything on the Arizona Cardinals, but as you can see in the table above, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is getting WORK! I do like the Bengals here in a bounce-back and that should lead to another busy day for Hollywood in the passing game. He’s in play for all formats.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – As always, if you need a punt-play, the AETY Model and my (definitely biased) opinion loves Wan’Dale Robinson in what should be an extremely negative gamescript against the high-powered Miami Dolphins. We talked about it in Discord before Monday Night, but Wan’Dale is ramping up his usage and starting to return to being Daniel Jones’ guy (for whatever that is worth… the Giants are bad at football). In Week 4, Robinson was second in receiver routes ran and first in first reads from Daniel Jones by a wide margin, in a negative gamescript against the Seahawks. For the stone minimum and a great passing gamescript, Wan’Dale is viable in all formats (on DraftKings specifically).

Honorable Mention: Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, DeVonta Smith, Tutu Atwell, Zay Flowers (GPP), George Pickens, Adam Thielen (if Brian Branch is OUT), Rondale Moore OR Demario Douglas (GPP punt pivots if Wan’Dale is chalk)

Tight-Ends

Tight End Targets per Routes Ran

Travis Kelce

Sam LaPorta

Zach Ertz

Jonnu Smith??

T.J. Hockenson

Mark Andrews

Kylen Granson

Darren Waller

*Basic tight-end metric for this slate. Minimum 50 routes ran.

Travis Kelce ($7,600 DK / $8,789 FD???) – By far the TE1 on this slate and we all know it. The obvious pairing if you’re playing Patrick Mahomes in this shootout and a lock for our DraftKings cash games. I have no problem if you want to go double tight-end this week.
T.J. Hockenson ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – Excellent price (especially on FanDuel) for one of the biggest red-zone threats in the highest total game on the slate. For FanDuel cash game purposes, I’ll likely use Mahomes as my quarterback for Chiefs’ exposure and then use Hockenson for the tight-end spot on the other side of that game.
Tyler Higbee ($4,100 DK / $5,300 FD) – Like Logan Thomas last week (who missed a touchdown by one-yard), I’ll continue to go to tight-ends against the Eagles. The Eagles rank dead last in DVOA against opposing tight-ends and that’s always nice because most teams are playing from behind from the jump against the Eagles. It’s a nice cheap bring-back if you’re playing Jalen Hurts, but Higbee is certainly viable as a one-off as well.

Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, Sam LaPorta, Dallas Goedert

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Jalen Hurts
De’Von Achane
DeAndre Hopkins
Travis Kelce
Wan’Dale Robinson

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Jordan Addison
D’Andre Swift
Isiah Pachecho
AJ Brown

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Stix Picks for NFL DFS Week 4

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Hopefully not all of you rode the Desmond Ridder risk train with me last week, lol. We were close to having Kyle Pitts for a 70+ yard touchdown, but it is what it is. Let’s get back into things for Week 4!

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. This week, some of the higher total games on the slate the field will love to target will be:

– Miami @ Buffalo (-2.5) / 53.5 Point Total
– Denver Broncos (-3) @ Chicago Bears / 47 Point Total
– Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5) 49 Point Total
– Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts (-1) / 45 Point Total

Justin Herbert ($7,800 DK / $8,600 FD) – Herbert is back in the article… what a surprise! As long as Jimmy Garoppolo plays, Justin Herbert and this Chargers’ offense should be in store for a busy, busy day against the Raiders’ atrocious secondary and a pass defense that ranks 3rd to last on this slate (DVOA). If Jimmy is OUT, I’d likely limit my exposure to Herbert to cash games only.

Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, Josh Kelley
Bring-Back Options: Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Jacobs
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – The Bills defense is tough, but it’s hard to avoid a 3-5% owned Tua in NFL DFS GPP contests. The Dolphins are healthy on offense with the return of Jaylen Waddle and they’re number one in total offense DVOA. It’s very possible this game is much slower than the public anticipates, but if it shoots-out, you know the stackable pieces to make a game-stack that can climb the leaderboards in a hurry.

Stack Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Bring-Back Options: Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Gabe Davis
Anthony Richardson ($6,700 DK / $7,600 FD) – Richardson is back after missing last week’s game with a concussion and will likely lead the slate in QB ownership (he or Josh Allen). The AETY Model is right on market with Sportsbooks and has Richardson projected for 44 rushing yards, 209 passing yards, and 1.37 passing touchdowns. The passing touchdown number is a little light for my liking but Richardson offers us a significant higher floor than most due to the rushing ability and the elite no-huddle rate at which the Colts play.

Stack Options: Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Zack Moss
Bring-Back Options: Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Kyren Williams
Russell Wilson ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD) – As mentioned on the 1st and Stix Podcast, the Bears’ secondary is absolutely decimated (Eddie Jackson, Jaylon Johnson, and Josh Blackwell are OUT) and is one we will continue to attack. Russ will likely be one of the more popular quarterback plays on DraftKings but he’s the top value on the AETY Model by a wide margin and offers us a lot of salary relief to get exposure to the studs we build our lineups around.

Stack Options: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, Marvin Mims Jr.
Bring-Back Options: DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, Chase Claypool
Matt Stafford ($5,700 DK / $6,600 FD) – GPP Only play, but I love this spot for Stafford and the passing game to leverage the ridiculous ownership on Kyren Williams. It should be one of the faster games on this slate as both teams rank inside the top-10 in pass attempts per game and top-15 in play clock remaining per play… In addition, the Colts will likely be without their best pass-rusher, DeForest Buckner.

Stack Options: Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Kyren Williams
Bring-Back Options: Michael Pittman Jr., Zack Moss, Josh Downs

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott

NFL DFS Running Backs

Tony Pollard ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD)
James Cook ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) – James Cook is going to come into this matchup around 5% ownership and offers us all a way to get significantly different in our GPP builds, in a game the public is going to want to stack. This is a leverage play off of all of that chalk in the low $6K range on DraftKings (Zack Moss, Kyren Williams, Alexander Mattison, Swift, etc.) and a plus-matchup against the Dolphins’ 26th ranked run defense (DVOA). I prefer the NFL DFS GPP pivot on DraftKings due to the pass-catching upside and unfortunate lack of goal-line work.
Kyren Williams ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD) – Play him in cash! 25% or greater ownership projection. Feel free to lock him in your GPP lineups as well if you love the situation, but he’ll be a fade for me in GPP builds and locked in cash.
Javonte Williams ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD) – Gamescript killed us last week so it is yet again, Javonte Williams SZN (for all you SZN boys and girls out there). The price is absurd on both outlets and so will the ownership. Lock him in your cash game lineups and use the salary relief in GPPs if you need it.
Zack Moss ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – The usage for Zack Moss has been incredible and getting the dual-threat, Anthony Richardson back in the lineup should free up the running lanes for Mr. Moss against the Rams’ 29th ranked run defense (DVOA). Like Kyren Williams, Zack Moss just doesn’t leave the field and that’s tough to pass up in NFL DFS lineups. I’ll likely ride Anthony Richardson in cash games and pivot to Zack Moss in GPP builds.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Alexander Mattison, D’Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Roschon Johnson

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ($9,200 DK / $9,600 FD) – What do you need me to say about Tyreek Hill? This guy is putting on an absolute clinic thus far as he enters this matchup (with no Jordan Poyer for the Bills) 4th in First Reads, 1st in Targets per Routes Ran, and 1st in Air Yards. This dude is a magician in any matchup, especially when it’s a projected higher scoring, back-and-forth battle.
Keenan Allen ($7,900 DK / $9,500 FD) – Keenan Allen HAS taken over the CeeDee Lamb route tree that Kellen Moore used in Dallas. This dude is a premium play at the wide receiver position every single week as mentioned in last Sunday’s article. He’s going to be one of the highest owned wideouts on the slate and makes for a perfect cash game wide receiver and GPP viable, if Garoppolo goes.

Josh Palmer ($4,000 DK / $6,100 FD) is also an extreme value of the week and likely a staple for most of my lineups on DraftKings.
Ja’Maar Chase ($7,800 DK / $8,200 FD) – The only downside here is the low total (41 points) and extremely slow pace. Other than that, this is the nut matchup for WR1s against the Titans’ secondary we discuss every week. As long as you trust Joe Burrow’s health, this is a lock and load situation for Ja’Maar Chase and the rest of this Bengals’ receiving core.
Puka Nacua ($6,700 DK) / ($7,500 FD) – Still way too cheap for someone with this type of target share in a fantastic matchup against the Colts’ secondary and a nice gamescript pivot around Kyren Williams chalk.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – 5% owned against a struggling, limited-talent defense. Pittman is Top-10 in 1st Read Leaders and Top-15 in Targets Per Routes Ran… If this game turns into a bit of a track meet, we may have a slate breaker on our hands.
Courtland Sutton ($5,300 DK / $7,100 FD) – As mentioned in the Wilson writeup, the Bears’ secondary is pure trash and this should be a coming out party for both Jerry Jeudy ($6,600 DK / $6,600 FD) and Courtland Sutton against the 31st ranked pass defense (DVOA) that plays a lot of Cover-2 (advantage Sutton) and Cover-3 (advantage Jeudy).
Adam Thielen ($4,500 DK ONLY) – Pure ownership play in cash games. I have literally zero interest in the “revenge” narrative for Adam Thielen in GPP lineups, but if 35% or more of the field is going to play him in cash, I’ll ride the train.
Calvin Austin ($3,300 DK / $5,000 FD) – If you need a punt-play, the AETY Model seems to love this spot against a banged up Houston Texans’ secondary. Over the past two-weeks, Calvin Austin is clocking inside the top 15% of the league in Air-Yards. It’s a bit of a silly metric, but he’s starting to become a key contributor to the Steelers’ offense (for whatever that is worth).

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams (if Jimmy is IN), Jaylen Waddle, Michael Pittman Jr., Gabe Davis, Jakobi Meyers, DJ Chark Jr, Kendrick Bourne, Quentin Johnston

Tight-Ends

George Kittle ($5,100 DK / $6,300 FD) – Criminally low priced in a great matchup against a team that continues to struggle covering the tight-end. If Deebo and/or Aiyuk are limited in any fashion, Kittle should be a staple for 5 catches and 55+ receiving yards.
Jake Ferguson ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD) – If we’re not paying up for Kittle, Andrews, or Hockenson, we might as well punt down to a tight-end with significant red-zone upside. The Patriots will do their best to scheme away CeeDee Lamb and that should open up the middle of the field for Ferguson. It’s not a preferred play by any means, but this is what we get when we punt tight-end.
Pat Freiermuth ($3,400 DK / $5,500 FD) – On DraftKings, Freiermuth is going to be the highest owned tight-end by a wide margin. I’ll 100% fade in GPP builds but lock him into your DraftKings cash lineups. On Fanduel, find the extra $800 for Kittle.
Logan Thomas ($3,100 DK / $5,000 FD) – In a negative gamescript, I’ll roll the dice on the returning big-bodied pass-catcher for the Washington Commanders. It’s a very light sample size, but the Eagles grade 32nd in DVOA against opposing tight-ends.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, Zach Ertz

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Kyren Williams
Javonte Williams
Ja’Maar Chase
Pat Freiermuth
Josh Palmer

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Michael Pittman Jr.
James Cook
Tyreek Hill
Josh Palmer

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Stix Picks for NFL DFS Week 3

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

A great start to the NFL season with a lot of winning screenshots for both GPP tournaments and cash games! Personally, my GPP week was nothing special, but again, we had a lot of success sneaking in the pay line in our cash games and I love to see so many new members riding the cash game wave. Let’s get back at it for Week 3.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. Some weeks I’ll highlight them, other weeks I will not. This week, it will be very interesting to see where the field goes to open up value for the Chalk-City Shootout in Minnesota (54.5 point total… no other game is higher than 48.5).

Justin Herbert ($7,500 DK / $8,400 FD) – Herbert seems to be a staple in this article week after week. This is by far the highest total on the slate and a game that should not disappoint from a fantasy perspective. With how much pressure the Vikings have been bringing this year and grading top-12 in Pass Defense DVOA, I’d say Herbert and his high ownership is probably best left for cash games (he struggles a bit against the blitz).

Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Kelley,
Bring-Back Options: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Alexander Mattison, Jordan Addison
Kirk Cousins ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD) – This is a full steam ahead play for Kirk Cousins against the Chargers’ dead last pass defense (DVOA). Pair that with the incredible passing rate over expectation for the Vikings and you’re bound to have fantastic fantasy production. The Vikings simply cannot run the football effectively and will continue to drop back and sling it. Cousins has a fantastic matchup at home here and will be a popular GPP and cash play for the DFS community.

Stack Options: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison
Bring-Back Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Kelley
Trevor Lawrence ($6,800 DK / $7,600 FD) – Despite being almost a double-digit home favorite here against the Texans, Trevor Lawrence grades out as one of the safest quarterbacks for me on this slate. The Texans will be without their top cover-cornerback, Derek Stingley Jr. and should abuse this defense as a whole for four quarters. The AETY Model has him as one of the top values at the quarterback position with a sexy cash-game floor of 255 passing yards and two touchdowns. Fire up Lawrence in all formats and expect a monster comeback performance after a let-down last week against a tough Chiefs’ defense.

Stack Options: Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk
Bring-Back Options: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods
DeShaun Watson ($6,100 DK / $7,500 FD) – Not a high total or an up-paced game environment at all, but Watson has the Tennessee Titans and that is always something we’re interested in attacking with a passing game. Watson is probably better off as a cash game play and offers a great floor with his running ability.
Desmond Ridder ($5,000 DK GPP Only) – Alright, the NFL DFS Puke Play of the Week! If you are looking for a way to afford some of these stud wide receivers in the higher total games, you’re going to need some salary relief. According the the AETY Model, the number one value at the quarterback position is Desmond Ridder. Keep in mind there is significant risk when rostering Ridder. You’re rostering the quarterback who is on the team that is second to last in the NFL in pass attempts per game… Arthur Smith wants to run the football at all costs.

On the bright-side, David Montgomery is likely missing this game with an injury and this Lions’ offense is going to need to beat Atlanta through the air. Atlanta is a pass funnel defense and I’m sure Ben Johnson is aware of that. These pass catchers for Detroit are healthy and should look to step on the gas from the get go and make Arthur Smith get out of his comfort zone to throw the football. On the other side of things, Arthur Smith should want to throw the football more against a depleted Lions’ secondary that already ranks 5th to last on this slate in pass defense DVOA. What Ridder does with his legs is just pure bonus points for us, but there should be a good floor here against a defense that runs a lot of man coverage with heavy blitz rates.

Stack Options: Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts
Bring-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam Laporta, Jahmyr Gibbs

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff

NFL DFS Running Backs

Bijan Robinson ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD) – Best running back on the slate and likely comes in extremely under-owned. I don’t want to prioritize running backs against the Lions’ but he’s arguably the best pass catcher on the team as well. There is nothing about Cordarrelle Patterson returning to the lineup that hinders my love for Bijan. Having said that, Tony Pollard ($8,000 DK / $9,400 FD) would be the preferred option in cash game lineups.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,900 DK / $8,000 FD) – Fantastic game environment for Etienne and the Jaguars here against the absolute worst rush defense in the NFL (32nd in run defense DVOA). The only downside here is how much we’ll see of Tank Bigsby in the red-zone, but Etienne will be extremely active in the passing game with Zay Jones likely out.
Kenneth Walker II ($6,200 DK / $7,600 FD) – More of a cash play for me in terms of the high projected ownership, but Kenneth Walker is in a great matchup against the Panthers and their 31st ranked run defense (DVOA). I’ll likely just jam him in my cash lineup to follow the ownership crowd, but will avoid in GPPs due to the offensive line issues that were clearly a problem for the Seahawks last week in Detroit.
Javonte Williams ($5,500 DK / $6,100 FD) – Dirt cheap price for a guy I’ve been waiting on for the first couple of weeks. It is now officially, Javonte Williams SZN (for all you SZN boys and girls out there). After seeing him get back into form a bit in Week One and damn-near be the only ball-carrier for the Broncos in Week Two, it is time for Sean Payton to unleash Javonte Williams against the Dolphins’ 29th ranked run defense (DVOA) in. The AETY Model grades the Denver Broncos running game against the Miami Dolphins’ run defense as the #1 positive matchup to attack. It’s still quite early and falling in love with 2023 models may be premature, but in GPP’s I’ll take the chance on a ridiculously affordable, dual-threat running back, in a great game environment with some humidity that should bode well for his previously injured knee.
Josh Kelley ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD) – Assuming Austin Ekeler is OUT, Josh Kelley is a lock for me in all formats. I do not care about his ownership as this matchup is perfect for the Chargers’ running game. The Vikings’ run defense against the Chargers’ ground game is the #2 mismatch on the AETY Model (behind the one listed above).
Jerome Ford ($4,800 DK / $5,600 FD) – If you need the “free-square” salary relief running back, Jerome Ford will surely be that guy this week. As we’ve mentioned the past two weeks, the running game matchup against the Titans’ is not a sexy one. Leave Ford to cash games only as he likely garners 35% or higher ownership in Week 3 NFL DFS.
Kendre Miller ($4,300 DK / $4,600 FD) – It sounds like Kendre Miller is going to be a full-go this week against the Packers’ weak run defense. I don’t fully trust that Miller gets a ton of snaps, but we know Pete Carmichael does not want to use a lot of Tony Jones Jr. This is Kendre Miller’s time to shine before Alvin Kamara returns next week.

Honorable Mention: Raheem Mostert, Alexander Mattison, Miles Sanders, Isiah Pacheco

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($9,300 DK / $9,700 FD) – My WR1 on this slate by a wide margin and will be locked in for all formats. The floor is simply too high. If you cannot afford him in cash games, use Kirk Cousins to get your exposure that way.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – With everyone trying to pay up for Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown is going to come into this week at 5-10% ownership. The upside here is fantastic as we mentioned the Lions likely lean on Jared Goff and this passing attack. The Falcons will play a ton of man coverage and that is where Jared Goff looks for Amon-Ra early and often (AETY Model projects a 36% target share against man coverage). Also, the matchup on the inside against Dee Alford is a fruitful one for Mr. St. Brown.
Keenan Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,800 FD) – Keenan Allen is legit taking over the CeeDee Lamb route tree that Kellen Moore used in Dallas. This dude is a premium play at the wide receiver position every single week. This week, it’s a solid matchup in an extremely high total game… against a Vikings’ team that plays a ton of Cover-3 zone and has the highest blitz rate in the NFL. Advantage Keenan.
Calvin Ridley ($7,200 DK / $7,500 FD) – Way too cheap on FanDuel, but certainly in play on DraftKings as well. If Zay Jones is out, Calvin Ridley’s usage will likely skyrocket against a Texans’ defense that is out their top cover cornerback. I love this spot for the Jaguars’ offense as a whole. Christian Kirk is also in a smash spot here on the inside of this depleted secondary.
Amari Cooper ($5,700 DK) / ($6,200 FD) – Your classic WR1 against the Tennessee Titans’ pass-funnel defense and Kristian Fulton. At the price, this should be a fine play in all formats though I would lean towards cash games with this slow paced game environment.

Elijah Moore ($4,700 DK / $6,100 FD) has a low-key fantastic matchup here as well against the Titans’ man-coverage.
Courtland Sutton ($5,100 DK / $6,300 FD) – If this game turns into a shootout, Courtland Sutton should be in a great spot here on the outside against Eli Apple and Xavien Howard. It’s a bit tough to handicap this receiving core and the expected target shares, but the Dolphins will play a nice mix of man coverage and Cover-3 zone, which will keep both Sutton and Jeudy active in the pecking order.

Drake London ($5,000 DK / $6,500 FD) is also someone I like a great deal in that price-range… especially if you’re going to have the stones to play Desmond Ridder.
Braxton Berrios ($3,600 DK / $5,100 FD) – Assuming Jaylen Waddle is OUT, the DFS community will likely flock towards Braxton Berrios. The price is great and the matchup against Essang Bassey and Damarri Mathis should give Berrios a lot of room to succeed in one of the best offenses in football. I prefer him as a cash game play but he’s fine for all NFL DFS formats if and only if Waddle is OUT.
Tank Dell ($3,600 DK / $5,400 FD) – Getting a cheap bring-back for the Texans in what should be a very negative gamescript makes a lot of sense here. Nico Collins is an absolute beast and I love to see it (one year after I play the hell out of him, lol), but for the savings, Tank Dell is very interesting. Tank Dell is the only wide receiver who is cheaper than $4K on DraftKings that is Top-25 on the slate in targets per routes ran and first read on quarterback drop-backs… Those are very telling metrics that Tank Dell is a focal point of this offense.
Justin Watson ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD) – If you listened to the 1st and Stix Podcast for Week 3, first off… thank you! Second off, you were probably thrown way off-guard when I mentioned Justin Watson’s name. The stat was: of the top 35 players in air-yards, only three of them have not had a double-digit fantasy outing so far in 2023. Those three are Jonathan Mingo, Michael Wilson, and Justin Watson.

One of these things is not like the other… Mingo and Wilson are a part of horrid offenses. Justin Watson is a part of one of the best offenses in the NFL. If Kadarius Toney and Richie James are OUT, Justin Watson is my 1% owned GPP flyer of the week. He should absolutely break a deep ball or two against this practice-squad talent in the Bears’ secondary.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, Jordan Addison, Christian Kirk, Zay Flowers, Nico Collins (cash-viable at his ownership), Drake London, Elijah Moore, Robert Woods

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – Ownership will be incredibly low for the best tight-end in football.

TJ Hockenson ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – Rather cheap exposure to one of the best weapons in the highest total game on the slate. The Chargers will run a healthy mix of Cover-3 and blitz which will open things up in the middle of the field for TJ Hockenson.
Sam LaPorta ($4,000 DK / $5,200 FD) – Excellent price for a key pass-catcher on the Lions’ offense that is expected to pass the ball a lot. When the Falcons show blitz and some Cover-3 zone, that is where LaPorta should shine in this matchup.
Kyle Pitts ($3,900 DK Only) – It’s gross, but I need a cheap stack option with Desmond Ridder if I want to fill the rest of my roster with studs. Kyle Pitts isn’t getting a ton of love in this offense but is still second amongst NFL Tight-Ends in route participation. The Lions will play a ton of Cover-2 and man coverage which should open up the world for Kyle Pitts to run wild (if they pass the ball). The best cover safety for the Lions, Kerby Joseph, will likely miss this game after being carted off the field last week. C’mon, 1% Pitts!
Zach Ertz ($3,500 DK Only) – With the potential weather concerns in Washington, just take the affordable Zach Ertz who’s getting targeted at an elite clip. This will be another negative gamescript for the Arizona Cardinals.
Cole Turner ($2,700 DK / $4,600 FD) – Total punt play with Logan Thomas out (concussion). The weather is likely to be a mess in this Buffalo @ Washington game but at the prices, Kincaid and Turner are viable.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Dalton Kincaid, Hayden Hurst

Defense / Special Teams

Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns
Green Bay Packers
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets (cash game lock at their ownership)
Carolina Panthers

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Justin Jefferson or Kirk Cousins
Josh Kelley
Keenan Allen
Zach Ertz
New York Jets

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Desmond Ridder
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Javonte Williams
Kyle Pitts

2 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks for NFL DFS Week 2

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

A great start to the NFL season with a lot of winning screenshots for both GPP tournaments and cash games! Personally, my GPP week was nothing special, but we had a ton of success sweeping the board in our cash games and I love to see so many new members riding the cash game wave. Let’s get back at it for Week 2.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a season!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. Some weeks I’ll highlight them, other weeks I will not. This week, I do love the top of the board and it will be tough to make a decision on where to go.

Josh Allen ($7,900 DK / $8,900 FD) – Josh Allen laid an absolute egg on Monday Night Football. There is no other way to put it. The Jets’ defense is going to be one of the best defenses in all of football and it was Week One… let’s not jump the gun here. This is an absolute fantastic matchup against the Raiders’ defense we thought would have gotten destroyed by Russell Wilson and the Broncos (no comment on that game-plan and pace of play from Sean Payton). Josh Allen will be at home and ready to right the ship as he leads the Bills’ and their slate-leading implied team total (~28.5 points) right past one of the worst defenses in football.

It will be hard to not glue Josh Allen (or Stefon Diggs) into our cash game lineups and you’re obviously more than welcome to fire Josh Allen in NFL DFS GPP contests, but he will be popular in a tough gamescript to project.

Stack Options: Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Gabe Davis
Bring-Back Options: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs
Justin Fields ($7,600 DK / $8,000 FD) – Get ready to puke, but my 1% GPP ONLY play of the week (weather permitting) is going to be Justin Fields. Yes, the Vikings arguably pass more than anyone in the NFL, but this Bucs’ defense gave up over 270 passing yards to Kirk Cousins in ONE HALF. I mention that because we need any boost we can when trying to find an upside matchup for Justin Fields’ passing game. In addition, the Bucs will likely be missing one of their better defensive backs, Carlton Davis, and pass rushed Calijah Kancey.

On the not so gross side of things, we play Justin Fields for his rushing ability. Todd Bowles and the Bucs love to bring the blitz and that’s where Justin Fields historically loves to use his legs. In 2022, against teams that have a well above average blitz rate, Fields averaged over 100 rushing yards per game. If the weather stays respectable for a fantasy football environment, Justin Fields could break this slate wide open.

Stack Options: Cole Kmet, DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney
Bring-Back Options: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rachaad White
Justin Herbert ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – A little bit of a bummer last week for Herbert but the rushing touchdown saved his fantasy day. The Titans’ defense is an absolute pass-funnel as expected and this will be a situation to attack on a weekly basis. Hell, Derek Carr torched them for over 300 yards. Look for Kellen Moore to really dial up a strong game-plan for the air attack, just like he did last season when the Cowboys went to Nashville to play the Titans pass-funnel defense and they threw the ball 41 times (8 more than their team average) despite never being behind in that game. Keep in mind, Tony Pollard was out that week, but from the looks of things, Austin Ekeler is doubtful to dress for this one as well.

With or without Ekeler, Herbert is a fantastic NFL DFS play on any given week, but this is almost a scream from the mountain-top type of play if Ekeler misses this one. Moore will lean on Herbert and this passing attack. At a current ownership projection around 5%, Herbert is a full-go in any format you wish to play.

Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams
Bring-Back Options: DeAndre Hopkins (D), Derrick Henry, Treylon Burks (if Hopkins OUT), Chig Okonkwo
Joe Burrow ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD) – Pretty damn cheap on FanDuel, but always in play on DraftKings in a matchup against a depleted Ravens’ secondary. Top coverage defensive backs Marlon Humphrey is likely OUT and Marcus Williams will miss the majority of this season with a torn pec, leaving Brandon Stephens, Ronald Darby, and Rock Ya-Sin to try to cover Ja’Maar Chase and Tee Higgins. Good luck to the Ravens’ secondary.

Stack Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Tee Higgins
Bring-Back Options: Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Anthony Richardson

NFL DFS Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($8,200 DK / $9,500 FD) – Best running back on the slate and you don’t need me to write about McCaffrey. Loved the usage last week even when that game was relatively out of reach for the Steelers.
Saquon Barkley ($8,000 DK / $8,000 FD) – If you can’t afford McCaffrey or want to simply pivot to someone who the AETY Model is confident will have similar usage (if not more) to CMC’s last week in Pittsburgh, fire up Saquon Barkley against the worst team in football.
Derrick Henry ($7,400 DK / $8,300 FD) – I wouldn’t look a whole lot into Tyjae Spears snap count in Week 1. This offense still runs through Derrick Henry and this is a game Mike Vrabel and company are going to try their best to slow-down. If the Titans’ want to stay in this game, they’ll be giving Derrick Henry a ton of touches in a plus-matchup against the Chargers’ defense that ranks 29th in run defense DVOA in 2023 and 30th in 2022. We should continue to see some work in the passing game in Week 2 against the Chargers’ heavy blitz rate.

Due to the price and those around him, Henry is more of a tournament play for me in NFL DFS this weekend.
AJ Dillon ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD) – Similar situation to Josh Kelley below. It appears Aaron Jones is going to miss Sunday’s game in Atlanta so there is some clear value in this Green Bay running back spot.
Kenneth Walker III ($5,800 DK / $6,700 FD) – It looks like the majority of the mid-tier running back ownership is going to flock towards Kenneth Walker. I’ll likely ride the ownership wave in cash games but give a serious look to others in that price range in tournaments as the Seahawks offensive line will be missing both Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas.

On the bright side, Walker was the only running back in Week 1 to rank inside the top ten in Team Rush Attempt Share and Team Route Participation. Sometimes, volume is really all we are looking for in the mid-tier.Pair that with a good bit of Cover-2, soft zone coverage by Detroit and we should have some strong running avenues.

*David Montgomery ($5,800 DK / $6,300 FD) is a serviceable pivot if Walker’s ownership gets a bit out of control… Especially on FanDuel. Keep in mind, the Lions will be out two of their top linemen and this could open up the check-down game to Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300 / $5,800 FD).
Josh Kelley ($5,000 DK / $6,300 FD) – Assuming Austin Ekeler is OUT, Josh Kelley becomes this week’s Jamaal Williams. Likely a full-go in cash games (if the ownership warrants it), but I’m still leaning towards this Chargers’ passing attack as mentioned above with Kellen Moore’s history of this situation.

Honorable Mention: Bijan Robinson (excellent GPP pivot), Travis Etienne Jr., Joe Mixon, , Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Dameon Pierce, Zack Moss, Rachaad White

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($8,000 DK / $8,000 FD) – My WR1 on this slate by a wide margin and criminally cheap on FanDuel. Like Tyreek Hill last week, Diggs is one of the few on this slate who’s a damn-near lock for a 30% (or greater) target share against a horrible Raiders’ defense we attacked last week. The difference in Diggs’ spot this week compared to Hill’s in Week 1 is the gamescript. My only concern here is the lack of back-and-forth nature that we saw in the high-total shootout last week in Los Angeles. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders keep up with a pissed off Bills team looking to make a statement at home.

As mentioned above, Stefon Diggs or Josh Allen will be a priority for me in my cash game lineup and Diggs may end up being a priority play for me in all formats.
Ja’Maar Chase ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD) & Tee Higgins ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – Basically said it all in the Burrow write-up. The Ravens should offer up a lot of Cover-3 and some Cover-1 man and that is advantage to both Tee Higgins and Ja’Maar Chase. Look for them both to splash in this matchup against a whatever is left of this Ravens’ secondary.
Mike Evans ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD) & Chris Godwin ($6,000 DK / $6,300 FD) – If you’re into this game as a sneaky GPP game-stack or mini-stack, the Bears’ will be starting a rookie cornerback in Tyrique Stevenson to run around with Mike Evans and likely another young backup in Josh Blackwell at nickel as Kyler Gordon was placed on IR. Currently, Josh Blackwell is highly questionable to play and that puts this Bears’ secondary in a very, very dark place.
Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD) & Deebo Samuel ($5,500 DK / $6,900 FD) – I’ll be happy to ride the hot hand of Brandon Aiyuk on DraftKings at that price-tag and the red-zone blitz scheme the Rams will bring to the table. For cash games, Deebo Samuel is too cheap. This Rams’ defense cannot keep up with the 49ers and the sportsbooks seem to agree as the 49ers have the 3rd highest implied team-total on the slate.
Mike Williams ($5,700 DK / $6,700 FD) – I always love Keenan Allen ($7,100 DK / $7,800 FD) do again this week, but the price and matchup for Mike Williams is too good to pass up this week with this pass-funnel defense that will land Mike Williams across from Kristian Fulton. Williams has about a half-foot height advantage and too much skillset for a guy like Fulton, especially in the red-zone when the Titans tend to lean towards man-coverage.

UPDATE: Both Amani Hooker and Kristian Fulton are out… Let’s eat!
Jahan Dotson ($4,900 DK Only) – A week after everyone plays him… let’s ride! Basically, just the same matchup Jakobi Meyers just exploded in as Patrick Surtain will put a curtain (hehe) on Terry McLaurin for most of this matchup. Truthfully, it broke my heart to watch by “bring-back” Davante Adams get bottled up all game last week on my Russ stacks, but watching Meyers destroy the rest of this Denver secondary got me excited for Dotson in Week 2.

The price is so cheap and the AETY Model grades him as one of the best mid-tier values on the DraftKings board. Essang Bassey and Damarri Mathis are arguably one of the worst coverage-back duos in the NFL.
Treylon Burks ($4,700 DK / $5,400 FD) – As of now, it appears DeAndre Hopkins will be out with an injury so that opens up the world for a hopeful breakout, Treylon Burks. As long as you think the Chargers will be able to do whatever they please through the air on offense, Treylon Burks will be heavily involved in the Titans’ passing game after a Week 1 let-down. Regardless of that game, Burks still lead this team in routes ran… production will come.

UPDATE: Hopkins is a GO. Temper expectations for Burks but his ownership will be WAY down and still a fantastic game environment for a breakout game. Tournament play only.
Josh Reynolds ($3,700 DK / $5,900 FD) – I’d love to say DraftKings only on Josh Reynolds but I absolutely love the matchup for him and obviously the price on DraftKings. He is still in play on FanDuel in this matchup to take advantage of some dreadful coverage from the Seattle secondary. We’ll likely see a ton of Cover-3 zone and that is advantage to Josh Reynolds as he works Tre Brown and Coby Bryant all day long. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD) will certainly get his, but for $3,700, Josh Reynolds and the savings will be a core-play for me in all formats on DraftKings.

Honorable Mention: Amon-Ra St. Brown (always cash-viable), Calvin Ridley (cash-viable at this ownership), DK Metcalf, DJ Moore (he averages like 18 fantasy points per game against the Bucs), Christian Kirk, Zay Flowers, Josh Downs, Jayden Reed

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

George Kittle ($5,300 DK / $6,200 FD) – The targets and the routes were there for Kittle last week and I love that no one is interested in him this week. The Rams will play almost exclusively 2-high and Cover-4 zone defense with a solid blitz rate… that is advantage George Kittle and our boy Deebo Samuel. If I can’t get to the price-tag in NFL DFS, I’ll get my exposure through taking his over 38.5 receiving yards in the prop market.

Kittle gets in the box this week.

Cole Kmet ($4,400 DK / $5,200 FD) – Although Carlton Davis is OUT for Week 2 (and that opens things up for DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney), I’m still likely to use Cole Kmet as my preferred stacking option with Justin Fields. The Bucs’ defense will run a lot of Cover-3 and blitz a ton (especially in the red-zone)… that is advantage Cole Kmet. When teams ran a blitz (five or more pass-rushers) inside the 15-yard-line on Justin Fields in 2022, Cole Kmet was targeted on 50% of the routes than he ran. That is absurd.

In addition, three of Kmet’s seven touchdowns came in those situations. Let’s ball out, Cole (weather permitting)!
Chig Okonkwo ($3,300 DK / $4,700 FD) – Playing Okonkwo was something we invented last year at Win Daily (feel free to go fact check that) and I’m going to go back to that spot this weekend assuming that Hopkins is out. If Hopkins is in, it’s a slight downgrade to Okonkwo, but more-so Burks. The Chargers will play a man coverage with a mix of Cover-3 and a heavy blitz rate. Tim Kelly seemed to have let Chig loose last week as it was the first time in his career he surpassed a 70% route participation. The usage and a receiver and coverage setups that benefit Chiggy make him a fantastic value play on both NFL DFS outlets.

*Bonus TE TD Scorer: George Kittle (have to run it back after the Donald Parham hit!)

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Sam LaPorta, Zach Ertz, Cade Otton, Luke Musgrave

Defense / Special Teams

Dallas Cowboys
Houston Texans (FanDuel)
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
New York Jets

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Josh Allen
AJ Dillon
Josh Kelley
Ja’Maar Chase
Josh Reynolds

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

Justin Fields
Mike Williams
Derrick Henry
Cole Kmet and/or DJ Moore (chose your bring-back of Godwin/Evans if you wish)

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Super Bowl LVII Breakdown

Capper Steve 2 years ago

written by Capper Steve

And now the moment in football we have all been waiting for has arrived, as we get ready for the pinnacle sporting event of the year in Super Bowl LVII. So heat up the wings, put the adult beverages on ice, and sit back to enjoy the most highly anticipated NFL game of the year. The two number-one seeds of each conference will meet face-to-face to finally decide who will be crowned Super Bowl champs.

MVP Patrick Mahomes will seek his second Super Bowl ring in four years, but it won’t be easy against an Eagles’ front line that led the league in sacks this season. Jalen Hurts has emerged in Philadelphia as a man on a mission, carrying the Eagles to within one game of a second franchise championship. Both have their work cut out for them in this matchup, so let’s dissect this rumble in the desert for all the glory.

DFS single-game slates are not easy, especially in larger contests. Whether you are entering one lineup or 150, to cash they need to tell a story. Decide on a solid Captain/MVP who will give you the most bang for your buck and then connect the dots in your flex spots. As always you can find me in our Discord @JDiCarlo78 with the rest of the WDS family…Let’s Gooo!!!

Chiefs @ Eagles (-1.5) (O/U 50.5)

Chiefs

I’ve never seen a kid play with as much heart and talent as Pat Mahomes, who proved me wrong two weeks ago by beating Cincinnati on one leg. The 2022-23 NFL MVP will be in 80% of my builds along with All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, who both make up the heart and soul of the KC offense. Whether playing from behind or building a hefty lead, it will all weigh on Mahomes‘ arm. Both will be chalky, especially at Captain/MVP, so taking down a larger tournament will require a pivot. If you’re favoring the Chiefs and pulling out the upset, here are some pieces and an off-the-radar Captain/MVP:

Captain/MVP (Pivot from P. Mahomes $16,500DraftKings/$17,500 FanDuel, T. Kelce $15,900 DraftKings/$14,000 FanDuel):

JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,400 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel)

He’s a little banged up with a swollen knee and featured on a milk carton in the Chiefs’ playbook since Week 15, but JuJu has cemented his role as the clear number two passing option for Mahomes. Although the matchup against Philadelphia’s solid secondary is not enticing, tight end Travis Kelce will see plenty of extra TLC from the defense, freeing up some possible one-on-one coverage for Smith–Schuster.

Flex Spots:

Jerick McKinnon ($6,800 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel)

If the Chiefs do get behind the eight ball against Philadelphia, expect McKinnon to return to regular season form as a pass catcher in this game script. He’s disappeared from double-digit fantasy production as of Week 17, but with all the attention on Travis Kelce and the solid play in the Philly secondary of Maddox, Slay, and Bradberry, Jerick may feast in screen passes and check-downs from Mahomes.

Kadarius Toney ($4,400 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel)

Kansas City again will be without their starter, gadget receiver Mecole Hardman for the big game. Toney, when healthy, has filled in his shoes nicely throughout Hardman’s injuries. He’s racked up 10 and 12 fantasy points in the final two games of the regular season, following it up with another 10 in the postseason. His low price tag screams ownership with the potential of hitting value yet again in a possible shootout with the Eagles.

Harrison Butker ($4,000 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel)

We can’t ignore the kickers fellas. Facing a Philadelphia defense that has suffocated opposing offenses during the playoffs, coach Andy Reid may not want to roll the dice on fourth down within field goal range and settle for three. Butker has been solid all season in Kansas City, scoring 13 fantasy points per game this postseason.

Punt Plays:

Justin Watson ($2,000 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel), Noah Gray ($1,200 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel), Jody Fortson ($200 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel)

They’re not the flashiest guys in Kansas City, but they’ll provide you with a ton of value in this contest. I know CEH is priced down to $1,000 on DraftKings, but unless you see an injury to McKinnon or Pacheco, I can’t envision him doing much in this game. Watson, Fortson, and Gray have all seen a large percentage of the snap share when healthy this season. It will only take one big play down the field or finding paydirt on a goal-line catch to pay off their minuscule salaries.

Eagles

The ultimate test awaits Philly on Sunday, can they beat a real team in the AFC juggernaut Kansas City Chiefs? Jalen Hurts and company has been subject to criticism all year on an easy schedule and a cakewalk through the playoffs, but the smack talk can all end with a Super Bowl victory. But to get there, Hurts will need to put the ball in the air if the running game stalls out, or KC jumps out to a quick lead. His injured, throwing shoulder has not been put to the test since returning to the field in Week 18, pumping some anxiety into Eagles’ fans. Nonetheless, his matchup is primo against the 31st DVOA to opposing QBs and forcing him into Captain/MVP slots as the chalkiest play for Sunday, alongside his dual-threat capabilities.

So if we are on the Eagles bandwagon, pivoting from Hurts at Captain/MVP could pay off in bigger contests, but make no mistake he still could very well be the play in the top spot. Let’s check out some other directions for Philly at Captain/MVP, as well as flex and punt play positions:

Captain/MVP (Pivot from J. Hurts – $16,800 DraftKings/$17,000 FanDuel)

AJ Brown ($13,800 DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel)

He’s due a monster game, period. I’m not saying he doesn’t put up another dud in the biggest game of his career, but the upside for Brown is insane against the 28th in DVOA to opposing receivers in this matchup. He’ll be under the radar in contests because of his lack of fantasy output, but we’ve all seen Brown over the years explode for 30-plus fantasy points. His ceiling is through the roof and we wouldn’t want to miss out on cashing in tickets for not remembering the caliber of player that he still is.

Devonta Smith ($12,900 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel)

Much safer and more consistent than Brown, Smith is almost identical in salary but will give you a bit less anxiety at Captain/MVP. He’s averaged well over 20 fantasy points since Week 13, racking up over 100-yard receiving games in four of those contests. Smith shares the same matchup with alpha teammate AJ Brown, but with less risk and making another nice pivot at Captain/MVP.

Flex Spots:

Dallas Goedert ($6,400 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel)

The target share has been solid since his return from injury (averaging 6 since Week 17) and sitting in the mid-price salary range Goedert is a no-brainer to flex in your lineups. If you’re also a believer in Hurts’ shoulder injury preventing him from throwing the deep ball, you’ll be drawn to the Eagles’ tight end even more in your builds.

Kenny Gainwell ($5,000 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel)

Of all the running backs on this slate, I’m feeling Gainwell the most in this game. While owning 40% of the snaps in the backfield, he carried the ball at least a dozen times in the postseason, scoring 9 and 22 fantasy points. Although Miles Sanders has been the Eagles’ starter all season, Gainwell’s salary will allow more flexibility in lineup builds while continuing to see the same amount of time on the field.

Jake Elliot ($4,200 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel)

Let me reiterate with kickers guys and gals…let’s get different. Stauled-out Philadelphia drives may end up with Elliot getting sent out on fourth downs in a possible defensive game scheme by Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnolo. Three points are better than none in a game where every play-call matters,

Boston Scott ($3,000 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel)

The Eagles’ secret weapon manages to find the endzone almost every time he can sniff it. If he’s in your build and scores, start counting your winnings as he will separate you from the chalk. Philadelphia loves Scott in goalline situations, scoring three touchdowns in the playoffs.

Punt Plays:

Quez Watkins ($1,400 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel), Zach Pascal ($800 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel), Jack Stoll ($600 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel)

I love this crew of Eagles that are down the end of the DFS charts. Cheap and owning 40-50% of the snap share consistently. They all sit in a great spot to pay off huge dividends if they can make a big play or fall in the endzone, Watkins especially. For only $1,400 on DraftKings, you get the Eagles’ third big-play wide receiver against a young KC secondary, that I can see ripping off a 60-yard bomb from Hurts.

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Super Bowl LVII Breakdown. I know I left a few key names out, like MVS, Miles Sanders, and Pacheco. But in reality, anybody can go off at any given moment, especially Super Bowls. I always tell everyone to go with their gut, if you feel a certain way about a player then go for it. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord where we will have our experts talking about plays across every sport and tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup-build opinions or questions. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports and Gain access to our Projection Models. Good luck to everyone this weekend and let’s crush!

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Conference Championship Game by Game Breakdown

Capper Steve 2 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Only four teams and three games remain until we crown a champion for Super Bowl LVII. The Divisional Round this past weekend was colossal, where we witnessed the cream rise to the top of the NFL. This upcoming Sunday will be the last of the multi-game NFL DFS contests for the season, so let’s go out with a bang and destroy the competition.

The player pool is a “kiddie pool” at this point of the season for DFS. If we want to pass pay lines this weekend again, we need to be even less chalky and more creative, so put on your thinking caps boys and girls. As always stay locked on our Discord chat for advice and use the tools in our projection models. Alrighty then…Here we go with our final game-by-game breakdown of 2023! Let’s smash in the Conference Championships!

Sunday Slate 1/29/23

AFC Championship

Bengals @ Chiefs (-1.5) (O/U 46.5)

Bengals

I do believe ice runs through his veins. Joe Burrow flew into Buffalo in a snowstorm amidst all the Damar Hamlin hype and ripped the Bills’ defense apart limb by limb. What offensive line injuries? The Bengals’ defense… suffocated Josh Allen and Buffalo to only ten points. Winning lineups should have plenty of orange and black in them this weekend.

Facing the 28th DVOA to opposing quarterbacks, Joe Burrow as the third-cheapest option for DFS is a lock across all formats. His price of $6,800 on DraftKings is disrespectful to a quarterback who’s been a top-five player all season. He continues to play with a chip on his shoulder in this heavily weaponized offense, so a stack of Bengals would be a safe bet this Sunday.

Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon have been the most prominent pieces for DFS in Cincinnati and will be heavily owned this weekend, so shake it up a bit. Hayden Hurst has emerged as the clear number three option for Burrow at tight end (5 REC/59YDS/1TD vs. BUF), for just $3,000 on DraftKings set it and forget it.

Now to be sneaky in this spot, pick up Samaje Perine for only $4,500 on DraftKings. Although he plays second fiddle to running back Joe Mixon, he sees well over 40 percent of the snap share. If Perine can find the endzone while in any of your lineups, he can pole vault you up the ladder in your tournament standings. In the Bengals’ regular season game this season with KC, Samaje ran for 106 yards and caught six passes, scoring 24.5 DK points back in Week 13.

Chiefs

Kansas City is back again in the Conference Championship game for their fifth straight season, but it cost them a hefty price of quarterback Patrick Mahomes hobbling off the field with a high ankle sprain. As far as we know he’ll be ready to go on Sunday, but how well Mahomes is going to perform remains to be seen. As the most expensive quarterback on the slate at $7,600 on DraftKings, consider one of the other three this weekend.

Now with Mahomes‘ injury, the Chiefs’ offense will also take a toll. His mobility will be less than 100%, forcing him to be less aggressive to scramble and extend plays. We’ll see plays where the ball is released quickly or handed off to Pacheco or Mckinnon. Kadarius Toney and Travis Kelce will also benefit from these play calls of quick outs and end-arounds. There has been some buzz about a return of CEH and Hardman, but in this game atmosphere, I can’t risk either in my lineups other than Milli-Makers. Speaking of big multi-entry tournaments, if backup quarterback Chad Henne would have to take over for Mahomes at some point in the game, you could be sitting on a lot of green come Sunday night.

Safe: J. Burrow, P. Mahomes, J. Chase, J. Mixon, T. Kelce, T. Higgins, H. Hurst

Value: I. Pacheco, J. McKinnon, K. Toney, T. Boyd

No Risk-It, No Biscuit: S. Perine, C. Henne, C. Edwards-Helaire (if active), M. Hardman (if active)

Defense to consider: Cincinnati ($2,300 on DraftKings) chasing a one-legged Pat Mahomes

NFC Championship

Niners @ Eagles (-2.5) (O/U 46)

Niners

San Fran is on a mission, and they keep getting better as they move deeper into the postseason. Iowa State sixth-round pick Brock Purdy has solidified himself into the Forty Niner offense and is one win away from Super Bowl LVII. To get there he’ll need some help from his Pro Bowl-caliber teammates, which could be less than 100 percent healthy.

We’ve all seen the footage, Purdy leans on his tight end George Kittle (5 TDs/21REC since Week 16). But to defeat an Eagles’ 2nd best ranked defense, San Fransisco will need a healthy running game. Christian McCaffrey has been rock solid since the trade from Carolina scoring 12 total touchdowns and leading the team in fantasy production. But he’s come up on the injury report with a calf injury, as well as backup running back Eli Mitchell (Groin).

Rest assured CMC and Mitchell will suit up, but to move the ball against Philly it will have to come through the middle of the field, away from cornerbacks Slay and Bradberry. That’s where Deebo and Kittle butter their biscuits, expect them to be very involved this Sunday.

If you’re playing Showdowns too, I’m all in on Robbie Gould and the Niner defense. I’m visualizing a low-scoring game with plenty of stops in the red zone by the Eagles, resulting in some field goal opportunities for Gould.

Eagles

Jalen Hurts proved all the haters wrong, showing no signs of regression from a shoulder injury and crushing the Giants 28-0, icing the game in just two quarters in last week’s Divisional Round. He’ll lead the Eagles onto the field this Sunday and look to give the City of Brotherly Love its second Super Bowl visit in seven years It won’t be a walk in the park for Hurts this weekend though, as the number-one-ranked Forty Niner’s defense rolls into town. He should get there for fantasy, as usual, especially with his legs. San Fran will bring the pressure, forcing Hurts out of the pocket while padding his fantasy value.

If you’ve been following the Niners in the playoffs, their secondary has been roasted on the outside as of late. DK Metcalf and Cee Dee Lamb have each scored well over 30 DK Fantasy Points, which gives me the warm and fuzzies for AJ Brown and Devonta Smith this weekend. Heck, I’d even consider Quez Watkins for a potential bomb downfield for only $3,100 on DraftKings.San Fransisco’s 28th in DVOA to opposing receivers, so let’s attack the slate with Philly pass-catchers.

For Showdown purposes only, Jake Elliot is another kicker we want a piece of for tournaments. The Eagles will not hit pay dirt every drive and will have to settle for three against the top defense in the NFL.

Safe: J. Hurts, C. McCaffrey, A. Brown, D. Smith

Value: D. Samuel, G. Kittle, B. Purdy, D. Goedert

No Risk-It, No Biscuit: Q. Watkins

Defense to consider: Philadelphia ($2,800 on DraftKings) Number two-ranked defense against rookie Brock Purdy on the road.

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Conference Championship Game by Game Breakdown. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord where we will have our experts talking about plays across every sport and tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports and Gain access to our Projection Models. Good luck to everyone this weekend and let’s crush!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Divisional Round Weekend: Stix Picks

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Happy last full “slate” of the NFL DFS season! As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is going to be a little different than normal. I’ll simply list all of the players that I believe are “notable” players for this weekend’s slates of games and my thoughts on said players (price, ownership, etc.).

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DK / $9,200 FD) – AETY Model’s top quarterback on this slate against a pass-funnel Jacksonville defense. He’ll be my main option for my lineups this weekend despite ownership. This is the best passing offense in football coming off of a “bye” week. Let’s ride.

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott

NFL DFS Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($8,000 DK / $9,200 FD) – He’s expensive and has a tough matchup on paper, but no one is more likely to see 20+ touches on this slate than Christian McCaffrey.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD) – With the anticipated gamescript, we’ll really need to bank on Etienne finally getting more involved in the passing game against a Chiefs’ defense that bleed production through the air to opposing running backs (most receptions allowed to running backs in the 2022 NFL season). On the bright side, it doesn’t appear that JaMychal Hasty will cut into the workload for Etienne as he ran zero routes last week and played just 12% of the team’s snaps. Etienne is one of the few running backs with guaranteed 15+ touches in the workload.
Miles Sanders ($5,700 DK / $7,200 FD) – As much as I hate rostering 2022-2023 Miles Sanders in NFL DFS, I’m going to take the bait on the price savings for a close-to three-down running back. The Eagles’ offensive line is healthy and should provide a significant mismatch the the Giants’ and their dead-last ranked run defense (DVOA). I will simply not get cute at the running back position this week. I want guaranteed touches and Sanders’ with the above two running backs check that box.

Honorable Mention: Tony Pollard, Isiah Pachecho

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($7,700 DK / $8,200 FD) – Core play for me this week at the WR1 spot against Cameron Taylor-Britt and Eli Apple on the outside.
Christian Kirk ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD) – The Jaguars’ top pass-catcher in a matchup against the Chiefs’ corner Trent McDuffie who’s given up over a 120 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks of late when targeted. I’m building to the narrative of a Kansas City ass-whoopin’ and the Jaguars playing catch-up early.
Deebo Samuel ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD) – Too cheap for the explosive upside (as we saw last week). I don’t love the matchup, but Deebo Samuel offers a significant upgrade against all coverage schemes the Cowboys will likely run. As in Deebo fashion, he will be a boom or bust play.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,100 DK / $6,600 FD) – Going up against Tre Herndon for the Jaguars is a coverage advantage the AETY Model loves for NFL DFS lineups. It looks like we’re going to get JuJu around 10% ownership for this full-slate and I’ll be all aboard. Don’t look at the box score of their last matchup as Smith-Schuster was knocked out off that game in the second quarter with a concussion. Core play for me this weekend.
Kadarius Toney ($4,100 DK / $5,800 FD) – Nothing to write home about but I love the boom/bust ability of Kadarius Toney who should also see a lot of Tre Herndon in coverage. The snaps will likely be limited (per usual) but coming off of the bye week, we should anticipate a lot more designed plays for the game-breaker Kadarius Toney.
Michael Gallup ($3,800 DK / $5,700 FD) – If we’re looking for savings, Michael Gallup is going to be my go-to guy in our classic matchup against Deommodore Lenoir. He’s no DK Metcalf, but he’s not priced like him and has lead this Cowboys’ receiving core in end-zone targets over the past 6 weeks.

Honorable Mention: Ja’Maar Chase, AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, Brandon Aiyuk, Richie James Jr.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD) – The clear-cut TE1 on this slate by a mile. The Jaguars ranked dead last in DVOA against opposing tight-ends and we know no one at the position has the floor/ceiling combo of Travis Kelce.
George Kittle ($5,700 DK / $7,100 FD) – Sub-10% George Kittle this weekend… I’m not really into it, but it’s a way to get different in NFL DFS GPP builds for multiple touchdown upside.
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $6,300 FD) – The Giants’ are 31st in pass defense DVOA to opposing tight-ends. The public (and likely myself) will take the savings of Miles Sanders or AJ Brown and overlook the terrific value Dallas Goedert brings to the table.
Noah Gray ($2,500 DK ONLY) – It’s disgusting, but we know the Jaguars struggle with all route running tight-ends and Noah Gray surprisingly runs over 20 routes per game. He luck-boxed into the end-zone in this matchup earlier this season, but I will not be banking on that happening again. I’m using Noah Gray as a punt-play to open up salary relief for the others in this article in hopes he can get three receptions for 30+ yards… a touchdown will have the discord jumping!

Honorable Mention: Evan Engram

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

I don’t really care what you do on defense this week, but I’d rank them as follows:

Philadelphia Eagles
Buffalo Bills
Kansas City Chiefs
Dallas Cowboys
San Francisco 49ers
Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars
New York Giants

The Fab Five (DK GPP)

Patrick Mahomes
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Stefon Diggs
Christian Kirk
Noah Gray

2 years ago 0 comments

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