NFL DFS GPP

NFL Game by Game Breakdown Week 10

Time is absolutely flying this season and we’re already over halfway through the NFL season. This slate is interesting at first glance. There’s plenty of games to like, and there’s some flat out puzzling salaries. For the first week all season, we have a back-loaded slate with six of 11 games in the 4 PM window. That should make for some fun sweats late. We’ll dive into all of those facets and more in the NFL Game by Game Breakdown Week 10 to figure out who the Core Four will be!

Washington at Lions, O/U N/A (Lions -4.5)

Washington – Pace is 15th

QB – It’s taken Dwayne Haskins getting benched and Kyle Allen suffering an injury, but Alex Smith is back as a starting quarterback. I’m fairly torn on him. On the one hand, he threw three interceptions last week and this offense is flawed to say the least. On the other hand, Smith still managed to hit 17 DK points with three turnovers because he threw for a score and 325 yards. I’m going to be slightly tempted to have some exposure with how cheap he is. Detroit is allowing the 18th most passing yards per game and they are also 18th in DVOA against the pass. Topping it off, the Lions have a 17:5 TD:INT ratio allowed this year. I don’t believe I’ll go for him in cash but I may well stack him with a very interesting option.

RB – I understand the game script was fairly awful for the Washington running game last week. Still, just nine touches for Antonio Gibson? He only gets 46% of the snaps? I will absolutely have shares of him since I don’t think the game script gets that far away this week. Additionally, the Lions have allowed the third-most rushing yards to running backs and 15 total scores. The touchdowns allowed are tied for the most in football. Sporting the 25th ranked DVOA against the run doesn’t help the case for the Lions stopping Gibson this week if he gets the touches.

The Lions have also allowed the seventh-most receiving yards, and we should not overlook J.D. McKissic. So far with Smith under center, McKissic has accounted for over 35% of the targets which is staggering. He actually played the most snaps of any back last week and saw 14 (!!) targets. Making his potential even more appealing is the fact he’s been in the slot almost 40% of the time the past two weeks. Maybe it won’t continue to be that many targets, but he’s a wonderful DK play under $5,000 in GPP’s this week. The fact we have other cheap options means he’s going to be super under the radar. He’s even a rare running back that can be stacked with the quarterback. No, I do not trust him in cash.

WR – This remains a Terry McLaurin stan zone and does not change this week. Even in a difficult matchup last week, McLaurin hung 7/115/1 on eight targets. He’s up to the WR12 in PPR and is the WR8 in salary this week. McLaurin leads the entire NFL in air yards share at 46.6% and sits eighth in target share at 28.4%. He’s projected to see some of Desmond Trufant, which should work out well. He’s battled injury this year but he’s also allowed a 2.30 pPT, 12.8 YPR (yards per reception) and a 135.7 passer rating.

There’s not really a receiver that interests me outside of McLaurin. He’s about as close to a one man show as we get in the NFL and McKissic takes up so many targets, there’s not much left for anyone else. Anything extra should likely go to Logan Thomas.

TE – I sort of liked Logan Thomas last week, at least as much as you can like a sub-$4,000 tight end option. He’s just one target behind McKissic for being second on the team in targets at a 16.9% share. Thomas is also one RZ and EZ target behind McLaurin for the team lead in that category, so his role is what we look for in a cheap tight end. He is wildly cheap and he falls into the “touchdown or bust” category. Detroit is a tough matchup as far as DK points per game. They’ve allowed the fourth-fewest receptions and second-fewest yards but five scores.

D/ST – I’m not in love with the price here. They still sit fifth in pressure rate at 25.7% and are third in sacks on the year. Detroit’s offensive line has allowed pressure 23% of the time so far and only have nine turnovers so far. That’s tied for the sixth-least in the league.

Cash – McLaurin

GPP – Smith, Gibson, McKissic, D/ST, Thomas

Lions – Pace is 8th

QB – I really don’t know what to do with Matthew Stafford. He hasn’t had more than one game over 24 DK points all season long, and he’s not in the top 10 in attempts. Considering he’s only 19th in pDB, Stafford needs the volume to make up that ground and he may not get it here. Stafford also has only 13 touchdown passes despite being seventh in RZ attempts on the season.

Not only that, but Washington is a solid defense. Granted, they didn’t show it last week as much as we thought but the stats are still in their favor. They’ve taken over as the number one passing DVOA defense on the season and lead by about 12 yards in fewer passing yards allowed per game. Stafford is under $6,000 which gives me pause but I’m not excited to play him. Add in the fact he may be down Kenny Golladay and Stafford is easy to fade.

RB – This backfield is completely miserable. All of the sudden, Kerryon Johnson ran the most routes last week. D’Andre Swift did play the most snaps but the touches got chopped 17/13/7 between Swift, Adrian Peterson and Johnson. As it has been, Swift is still the player we want. Even though Coach Matt Patricia is driving me batty with his usage, he did get 13 carries to lead the team. I don’t know why he wouldn’t have the most targets, but I digress. Washington is 17th in DVOA against the run but have held backs to under 100 yards rushing per game. A facet that doesn’t work in Swift’s favor is how Washington has played backs in the passing game. They’ve allowed the fewest receiving yards and are one of six teams to not allow a receiving score. Swift is the play to chase if you use a Detroit back.

WR – Kenny Golladay didn’t practice again on Thursday so it’s fairly safe to assume he’s out this week. That means number one duties will fall to Marvin Jones, who hasn’t exactly been good in that role this year. He’s yet to exceed 13.3 DK in games that Golladay has missed and has just one game all year with more than three four receptions. Jones also will face mostly Kendall Fuller, who has only a 1.10 pPT and 22.2 passer rating allowed. That’s a hard pass for me.

I’m scared to say it but I believe Danny Amendola is my preferred option of the receivers. Not only did he see 10 targets last week, he gets Jimmy Moreland in the slot and that’s the best corner matchup of the bunch. He’s allowed nearly a 70% catch rate and a 1.40 pPT. Amendola only needs about 12 DK to hit 3x and that’s easily in the realm here, especially if Jones is getting muted. Marvin Hall earned over 70% of the snaps last week and was targeted five times. I just feel we have much better options later in the slate against worse defenses.

*Update* Golladay is officially out, as expected

TE – T.J Hockenson is quietly having a really solid fantasy season, as far as his position goes. He’s the TE3 in PPR and has scored five times with a t least four targets in every game. Golladay has missed the majority of the past two games and that’s been a big boon for the targets for Hockenson. He’s gotten 18 targets and leads in raw targets, target share, RZ looks and EZ looks. Statistically, he’s been given the chance to be the alpha in this passing game. Defending that position has been an issue for Washington. They’ve allowed the fifth-most DK points per game and have also given up six scores. Hockenson is my overall favorite Lions player if Golladay is inactive again.

*Update* Hockenson has been dealing with a toe injury all week and I’ve cooled a little bit on him. I’ll likely just go Hooper in the majority of lineups, but Hock is still a worthy GPP play.

D/ST – Washington is fourth in turnovers this year so I suppose you can make a small case for the Lions defense? The issue is the Detroit defense only has seven turnovers forced and 11 sacks through eight games. They could be worth a shot, but I have a feeling Alex Smith might well be better with a full week of practice as the starter.

Cash – None

GPP – Hockenson, Swift, Stafford, Amendola, Jones

Jaguars at Packers, O/U of 50 (Packers -13)

Jaguars – Pace is 6th

QB – What a start for Jake Luton. I somewhat passed him over last week because I much preferred Drew Lock. That worked out but it shouldn’t be passed over that Luton played extremely well in his first NFL action. He threw it 38 times and completed 26 of them for 304 yards. He even added a rushing score and brought the Jaguars down the field to almost tie the game (a two point conversion failed). Luton is still quite inexpensive, but has really the same issues as last week. Mainly, we don’t know what he is. A one game sample doesn’t state much but this game should lead him to production. The Packers started the week as the heaviest favorite and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Luton throw 45 times or more. I don’t want to dismiss him against the 22nd ranked DVOA against the pass.

RB – The price came back down for James Robinson and I feel slightly better about playing him this week than last week. Something about that $7,000 threshold spooks me with him. He’s up to 159 total touches in eight games, which is fantastic volume. Defending the run can be a vulnerability for the Packers as they are 20th in DVOA and have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to backs with eight games played. My main problem with Robinson this week is can he stay involved in a blowout? He has an 11.7% target share but that’s not something that is massive. He’s tied for the fourth-most targets on the team. Robinson is mostly going to be a game-script dictated pass for me, with maybe a sprinkle in GPP. A certain back in the next game is only $200 and is in a nuts spot.

WR – It hasn’t always been the case this year, but D.J. Chark was the unquestioned alpha last week with 12 targets. We weren’t especially sure how Luton would play but he fed Chark for a 7/146/1 day that was highlighted with a 73-yard touchdown. It’s notable that Houston corner Bradley Roby was out. The Packers could be in a similar situation as their top flight corner Jaire Alexander suffered a concussion last year. Playing Chark is a simple equation for me. If Alexander is in, I won’t look at Chark. If Alexander is out, wheels up for Chark who is probably playing catchup. As of Thursday, Alexander hasn’t practiced yet. Chark missed Thursday with a “non-Covid illness” so that’s not a worry to me at this point. If he gets another 10+ target game with no Jaire, he’s likely to smash his price again.

*Update* Alexander is officially doubtful and that means he is likely out since it was a concussion. It would be a serious upset to be released from the protocol at this point. I really like Chark provided the weather cooperates which could be an issue this week. Yes, I’m rolling my eyes.

The secondary receiver is tough to call. Laviska Shenault only played 10 snaps before injury prevented him from coming back. Chris Conley got the bulk of the targets behind Chark with eight. He is minimum price so if Shenault were to sit again, Conley becomes pretty interesting. He’d square up with Josh Jackson through a good bit. Jackson has allowed a 112.0 passer rating and nearly a 68% completion rate. However, Shenault is back at practice so the secondary options get murky. Viska could be a good sleeper pick since game log watchers won’t be on him.

*Update* Surprisingly, Shenault is out this week so Conley lines up as an excellent punt, and Keelan Cole is worth a look in MME formats.

TE – Along those same lines, perhaps Tyler Eifert is worth a look if Shenault misses. Luton targets him five times this past week although none came in the RZ or EZ. He did have the lowest aDOT of any receiving option this week so he’s definitely looking like a safety blanket to the sixth-round rookie. Green Bay has really done well against the position so far with just one touchdown given up so Eifert would only be a punt for GPP since 10 DK is about 4x.

D/ST – L.O.L.

Cash – Chark if no Alexander

GPP – Conley, Luton, Robinson, Cole, Eifert

Packers – Pace is 32nd

QB – Honestly, the only thing that could stop Aaron Rodgers in this game is the Packers calling off the dogs. Perhaps there’s a chance this game goes like the Dallas/Pittsburgh game last week when the Cowboys almost pulled the upset, but it’s difficult to see that path. AR12 is third in pDB, touchdown passes, ninth in yards and seventh in RZ attempts. These numbers are more impressive when you consider he’s 22nd in pass plays per game. Jacksonville is dead last in passing DVOA and is one of three teams allowing at least 25 DK points to the position per game. We don’t need to spend a ton of time here. Play Rodgers with impunity in any format.

RB – It’s Week 10 and I think we may have found the absolute height of disrespect as far as salary goes. Why in the world is Aaron Jones only $7,100 in this spot?? Yes, I understand that he’s missed two games and didn’t put up a huge score last Thursday night. However, he’s one of the best backs in all of fantasy and in a smash spot. Jacksonville is 21st in DVOA against the run and have allowed over 1,100 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns in eight games. Jones has a 17% target share as it is and he came out of the 49ers game healthy. He had 20 touches in that game and was playing in garbage time. I expect him to be full speed and Jones is likely my top overall play this week. He is for sure in my Core Four and I will not fade him in cash. His price is hard to not be heavy in GPP as well.

*Update* Lineman David Bakhtiari is back in the lineup, which is a big boost for the Packers in general but definitely for Jones.

WR – Something to start considering is the floor of certain receivers on DK and how they may actually be safer plays than some running backs. Case in point might well be Davante Adams. The price is astronomical, but shouldn’t it be? He’s played five full games this season (he got hurt against the Lions, so it’s not fair to count that). Adams has been over 30 DK points in four of them and over 40 in two of them. I would argue his ceiling is higher than every single running back on this slate with the exceptions of Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey, who may not even play. While Adams is tied for the highest salary, I’m not sure you’re wrong to eschew a pricey back to play him this week. He’s going to destroy the Jacksonville secondary. Adams is seven PPR points away from being the WR1 and only has six starts under his belt on the year.

Allen Lazard looks like he’ll be back in the lineup and is fairly cheap himself. I don’t think he takes anything away from Adams, but he could be worth a look as well. It’ll only take a couple plays to pay off and a spot against Tre Herndon shouldn’t scare anyone. He’s allowed a 2.00 pPT and a 123.0 passer rating. If Lazard isn’t quite ready, Marquez Valdes-Scantling slides into that spot well.

TE – Robert Tonyan continues to fade back into fantasy irrelevance with Adams and Jones both healthy. He only saw one target this past week and has a total of 14 over the past four weeks. That’s equated to just a 10.5% target share and zero RZ or EZ targets. I believe even at $3,600, there are better investments, especially if Lazard is back as well.

*Update* Tonyan was DNP on Friday, which is usually not a great sign for a questionable player.

D/ST – I have a hard time finding reasons to play Green Bay’s defense at this salary. Luton is still a target, but $3,700 for a defense that has six turnovers on the year and allows almost 25 points per contest? That seems sketchy. I believe the Packers produce a pick or two with a couple sacks but the salary is really a non-starter for me. I know others may be higher on them but if they’re down the best corner, it’s not for me.

Cash – Jones, Adams, Rodgers

GPP – Lazard (if active), MVS

Texans at Browns, O/U of 49 (Browns -3.5)

Texans – Pace is 9th

QB – The beat goes on for Deshaun Watson, who racked up another game of 24+ DK points with a new coach. This was really his “worst” game since Bill O’Brien got canned, throwing for two scores, 281 yards and a 59.4% completion rate. If that’s the down game, sign me up. Watson is under $7,000 and we should send DK a fruit basket or something for that. I can’t imagine a reason why Watson should be under $7,000 the rest of the way, especially in this spot.

The Browns are 20th in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the fifth-most passing yards of teams that have played eight games. They are 24th in pass yards allowed per game, so Watson has an easier matchup based on the metrics. Now we add in that he’s seventh in pDB, eighth in points per game, seventh in pass yards and eighth in touchdowns on just the 15th most RZ attempts. There’s no reason to shy away from Watson here and if he’s not popular, even better. The ceiling is pushing 30 DK.

RB – It’s trending towards David Johnson not being active this week and that’s a huge opening for Duke Johnson (in a revenge game at that). Duke recorded 20 touches last week and scored, although the efficiency was fairly awful with a 2.6 YPC. Still, turning away from 18-20 touches in this range is difficult to say the least. Cleveland is only 18th in DVOA against the run so Duke is a solid volume play. I wonder if he goes overlooked to some extent since we have a $4,000 play that should be locked into cash later on in the article.

*Update* David Johnson is officially out and Duke is an excellent play in my eyes.

WR – It was another week that Brandin Cooks saw more targets than Will Fuller, though Fuller had the better fantasy day. It was close as Fuller went 5/100/1 and Cooks went 3/83/1 but Cooks held the advantage 8-5 in targets. That has been the story since BOB was let go, with Cooks going for a 39-30 lead in those four games. The RZ and EZ targets are identical for both at four and two respectively, and even the air yards share is right around 31-32% for each player. To me, Fuller is obviously a walking long bomb every play but when the salary difference is $1,100, Cooks makes just as much sense if not more.

The Browns don’t use Denzel Ward as a true shadow corner, but he should see more of Fuller this game and he can run with a 4.3 40-yard dash. That should help him to some extent and he only allows a 1.20 pPT. Cooks will see more of Terrance Mitchell who is up to a 13.9 YPR, 111.2 passer rating and a 1.90 pPT. I certainly don’t mind either but the salary gap is startling.

TE – The Texans were cautious with Jordan Akins in his return, as he only played 34% of the snaps to 52% for Darren Fells. However, Akins earned one more target and he’s going to be the tight end we want for fantasy. We have no evidence to suggest he won’t take back the snap lead and be the main target at the position, and is capable of a big game based on salary. Akins still leads in target share at 12.4% to 8.4% for Fells despite three fewer games. That says enough right there, especially against the Cleveland defense. They’ve allowed four scores to the position and over 400 receiving yards. Akins may turn out to be my favorite sub-$3,000 punt.

D/ST – With Baker Mayfield back in the saddle, I’m not terribly interested in Houston’s defense. They are awful against the run and are playing one of the best running teams in the league. There’s no need to go there.

Cash – Watson, Duke, Cooks, Fuller

GPP – Akins

Browns – Pace is 24th

QB – Baker is off the Covid list and active for this game but I’m not horribly interested. Mayfield has played eight games and been over 30 attempts exactly one time. He’s basically a Kirk Cousins, if Cousins was in commercials. Mayfield is 17th in pDB but 27th in yards, 13th in touchdowns and 30th in pass plays per game. If Cleveland can run the ball down Houston’s throat, they will do so and Mayfield has a very limited ceiling by projected game script and what Cleveland does well.

RB – By all accounts, Nick Chubb should be back in the Browns lineup this week and that means he’s going to be in my lineups. Chubb should not be under $7,000 very often and he draws one of the best possible matchups in his return to the field. Houston is ranked 28th in DVOA against the run and lead the entire league in rushing yards allowed despite playing only eight games. Cleveland is top five in churning out rushing yards per game, right at 150 yards per contest on the nose. Chubb had found his stride after a tough Week 1. The next two games he racked up 232 yards and four touchdowns. He was well on his way to a massive game against Dallas with 43 yards on just six carries before his injury. He was spotted with no brace on Thursday, which is great news.

A really nice pivot is Kareem Hunt, as both backs are typically involved every week no matter what. If Chubb is limited in any way, Hunt could take the bulk of the work and draws the exact same matchup. The price is going to keep most people away, is this is GPP only. If Cleveland can control the game, both backs can hit. Hunt had 24 and 14 DK points in the games Chubb went nuts before the injury and Cleveland is still eighth in rushing attempts per game. Furthermore, Hunt is more involved in the passing game (25-3, that’s not all from Chubb missing games) so he has upside there.

*Update* There is no reason to think Chubb isn’t ready for a full workload as of Friday night, meaning he is underpriced in this spot.

WR – It’s nearly impossible to get a read on this situation before the game starts. Odell Beckham is out, but the last game the Browns played the wind was a major factor. The passing game was non-existent and neither team accomplished much throwing the ball. On top of that, Austin Hooper is due back and he’s missed the last couple games as well. Rashard Higgins and Khadarel Hodge played almost identical snaps last game but combined for three targets. Jarvis Landry saw the bulk of the work with 11 targets and he’s likely still underpriced for the workload we can expect. He and Hooper are likely going to be the primary targets in this passing offense moving forward. Landry should also avoid Bradley Roby, who will be mostly on Higgins. Landry is about the only receiver I’m looking at in this offense.

TE – Salary included, Hooper might be my favorite tight end option for cash and maybe the whole slate. He was starting to jive with Baker before the appendectomy with three straight double-digit DK point games and a total of 23 targets. He had one touchdown in that time span but the price is so low, he doesn’t even need a spike to hit 3x. Since Week 4, Hooper has a 25% target share and is second in raw targets despite playing two fewer games than Landry. Houston in in the bottom 10 in DK points per game against tight ends and Hooper is an easy fit to any lineup. With no Beckham, we could really get a 4-5x game from Hooper here.

D/ST – It seems like Myles Garrett is good for a sack every week, but doing much else has been an issue with Cleveland. They do have 20 sacks overall and 14 turnovers but nearly 29 points per game is worrisome against Watson. Granted, Watson is tied for the fourth-most sacks but this play isn’t my favorite.

Cash – Chubb, Hooper, Landry

GPP – Baker, Hunt, Higgins

Eagles at Giants, O/U of 44.5 (Eagles -3)

Eagles – Pace is 4th

QB – Far be it for me to say Carson Wentz doesn’t have some flaws in his game. He’s truly not playing all that well this season, but it has to be noted that the offense around him would make a MASH unit look healthy. The good news for Wentz is reinforcements are on the way. The week before the bye, he welcomed back Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert. This week, he should get back Miles Sanders. Things look decidedly less bleak than two weeks ago against this very Giants team.

The good news for us is folks have been so critical of Wentz that it’s kind of obscured he’s been pretty decent in fantasy. He’s the QB6 among players that have eight or fewer games played but yet he’s under $6,000. Five rushing touchdowns have certainly helped and the Giants have fallen to 28th in DVOA against the pass. New York is up to the fourth-most total passing yards allowed and 25th in yards per game. Some in Discord might not be happy, but with the weapons back and coming out of a bye, Wentz is in the running for my cash QB at this salary.

RB – I have a feeling that Arron Jones and Nick Chubb are going to get a lot of attention, which means Sanders could fly under the radar. He could be a super interesting GPP option since he’s the cheapest of the three and has a great matchup of his own. The Giants are 11th in DVOA against the run but they’ve also given up over 1,200 scrimmage yards. A big part of that reason is they lead the league in receiving yardage given up to backs at 503. Sanders is at a 13.5% target share on the year to go with his 71 carries in five games. Only once through those five games did he not post at least 14 DK and he faced Baltimore and Pittsburgh, two of the better run defenses in football. Sanders played over 75% of the snaps in every healthy game and we shouldn’t expect much different coming out of the bye week.

WR – Travis Fulgham is the toast of the town in Philly, as he should be. He came out of nowhere in Week 4 with a game-winning touchdown. Since Week 5, he sits sixth in target share across the entire NFL which is insane. The last time these teams squared off, James Bradberry of the Giants held him mostly in check. Fulgham saw 11 targets and went 5/73/0. With additional weapons available in this game, I might not have a ton of Fulgham. He doesn’t need targets funneled to him in this spot and Bradberry is at a 9.9 YPR and a 79.8 passer rating.

Instead, Reagor stands out to me at such a cheap price. He’s $2,200 less than Fulgham and has the better matchup. I mentioned this is the Waiver article, but Reagor still has over 20% of the air yard share in this offense with just three games played. He had a rush attempt last game and was targeted six times. Facing Issac Yiadom is better than Bradberry as well, who has allowed a 14.3 YPR and runs a 4.5 compared to Reagor’s 4.47. I’ll take 6-8 targets in this spot with a player that has a 16.1 aDOT with a QB that is fourth in air yards per attempt.

*Update* Receiver Alshon Jeffery will make his season debut, and that does muddy the waters a bit. I’d be surprised if he makes a big impact and it doesn’t change how I feel about Fulgham or Reagor.

TE – I was all over Goedert in the showdown format last game and he flopped massively. The crazy part was he played 84% of the snaps and ran a route on nearly every Wentz drop back. That’s in stark contrast to his 56.9% route rate on the season. When we look at Zach Ertz, he is at 94.5% which is second in football. Since Ertz is still on IR, I expect Goedert to take that role and last game’s metrics back that up. We can hope the production now follows given extra time for Goedert to get healthy and the price is very reasonable. New York has only allowed two scores on the season from the tight ends, and Goedert could be quite sneaky on this slate with no boom games for almost the entire season.

D/ST – Philly is pricey but they should be in this spot. They are sixth in pressure rate and third in sacks on the season, which creates mistakes from the other team. The Eagles have 10 turnovers forced and Daniel Jones always has multi-turnover ability in every game. They are among the top options if spending up at defense this week.

Cash – Wentz, Reagor, Fulgham, D/ST

GPP – Sanders, Goedert

Giants – Pace is 19th

QB – The best fantasy game of the season for Jones came against this Philly defense but let’s pump the brakes. Nine of his 22 DK points came from rushing, including an 80-yard scamper that ended in an all-time blooper. He only generated 13 DK points through the air, and that remains a huge issue with Jones. He’s 32nd in pDB, 27th in passing touchdowns, 30th in points per game, 20th in yards and 32nd in yards per attempt. Jones is honestly just not a good quarterback at this stage and maybe he never will be. He’s out another 13 turnovers in nine games and it’s hard to come up with reasons why you should play Jones ahead of Alex Smith at the same price.

RB – It’s never a good sign when a player can’t finish a practice and that’s what happened to Devonta Freeman on Thursday. That’s likely to leave Wayne Gallman as the lead back again, which he has been for the past two games plus some. In the last three games (Freeman left the Philly game early), Gallman has hit double-digit carries every time and has 43 total touches. Philly is 10th in DVOA against the run and that stands out against Gallman here. The Eagles have only given up 888 scrimmage yards and seven scores. Normally, Gallman could be a prime source of value but it’s hard to play him over Duke and one we still have to talk about in the next game.

WR – Sterling Shepard remains ridiculously cheap for his role since he’s returned to the lineup. He’s seen 26 targets and 26% of the air yards, which are both second on the team. Shepard is also jus one RZ target off the team lead and leads in receptions with 20 and yards at 172. He should not be $5,000 on DK with this workload. He’s not even been in the slot very much, so he should face Nickell Roby-Coleman who is allowing a 1.60 pPT and a 76% catch rate.

Unfortunately for Darius Slayton, he has taken a (way) back seat in that same time period. He only has 13 targets although he remains an air yards darling with 25.5% in those three games. The aDOT of 12.4 is right about double Shepard, so that gives us a good idea of who is in what role. Darius Slay also looms for Slayton, which doesn’t help matter much. Not only did Slay hold him to 2/23/0 the first time, but Slay sits at a 1.30 pPT. Slayton is a fine GPP option, but it must be understood which format he suits. Shepard in cash, Slayton in GPP. Even if Golden Tate is active, I’m not interested given his usage and general unhappiness.

TE – If Shepard is only second in receiving categories, that means that Evan Engram has to be the one by default. He has 29 targets over the past three games, has played 80% of the snaps and leads in RZ targets. Running a route on 93.8% of his snaps is quite useful, as is sitting in the slot 33.1% of the time. Engram’s price really hasn’t moved enough yet and the Eagles have gotten blasted by tight ends all season long. They are tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed and in the bottom five of DK points allowed per game. Engram should be eager to make up for his game-killing drop from the last Philly matchup as well.

D/ST – The Giants are at the exact same price they were last week and they’re in play just like last week as well. With Wentz leading the league in interceptions, New York has a shot at 8-10 DK points and that’s what we look for in a cheap defense. They generate an above average pressure rate and have 15 turnovers already. They rank 22nd in overall DVOA but the salary and matchup keeps them in the running.

Cash – Shepard, Engram, D/ST

GPP – Slayton, Gallman

Buccaneers at Panthers, O/U of 50.5 (Buccaneers -6)

Buccaneers – Pace is 12th

QB – Tom Brady and the Bucs got humbled the old country way (Iron Sheik joke, he’s a funny follow on Twitter) and they’re looking to get right here. Brady is a bit of an oddball with some of his metrics. He’s only 15th in pDB and 12th in points per game. Yet, he sits fourth in touchdowns with 20, sixth in passing yards and third in RZ attempts. You would think he’d be a bit better on a drop back basis. He really can’t ask for more weapons in this offense and the price is about as low as it’s been all season. You can play the narrative of a ticked off Brady against a pass defense that ranks 21st in DVOA. They have only given up 13 touchdown passes, which is impressive at this point. Part of that is how bad they’ve played against the run but still. I think I’d only play Brady in game stacks this week.

RB – This situation is ugly, and I mean real ugly. The past three weeks have seen Leonard Fournette play far more snaps that Ronald Jones, to the tune of about a 2-1 ratio. He’s had four more carries and nine more targets. This all sounds like we should know Fournette is the target right? Well, maybe. All three of these games featured either a blowout in one direction or Tampa playing catchup. What happens if the game is close? Is it still Fournette, or does Jones get more run? I really want to play one of these players since Carolina is 24th in DVOA against the run and have allowed 1,305 scrimmage yards with 11 scores. We’ll see how the week develops but if we get a bead on which player is the lead back, we could be in business.

WR – If the backfield was a mess, the receiving corps might be even worse. All of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown played at least 78% of the snaps on Sunday night. Evans and Godwin had six targets and AB had five. That’s really going to make them tough to peg moving forward, if they even all play that much consistently. With the Bucs being down 20+ points in the blink of an eye, it’s hard to tell if this is the real usage or game script dictated. I don’t think I’ll be making a heavy investment in any of them.

I would caution about translating the big game for Evans the first Carolina matchup to this game. Godwin was out, AB was suspended, and Gronk was still resurrecting himself to a football player. Evans does have the toughest matchup in Rasul Douglas as well. Brady has shown the tendency to just not throw to Evans if he doesn’t have to. Brown and Godwin have the easier matchups and if playing anyone, Godwin is the favorite here.

TE – We saw Rob Gronkowski’s production take a big hit Sunday as well with his worst game since Week 2 against Carolina. It broke a string of three straight games over 14 DK for Gronkowski and now might be the best time to remember that there’s only one football. He still got six looks but it’s going to be difficult to asses if that’s stable or not. Having four big name targets might be great for the Bucs but in fantasy this is not going to be a fun time. The Panthers have only allowed three touchdowns so I do prefer a couple cheaper options at this position.

D/ST – It feels hard to justify playing the Bucs defense here. I don’t want to be a prisoner to the moment too much but they have a combined 14 DK points in their last three games. This is still a good unit. They still rank first in overall DVOA, have 16 turnovers forced and 29 sacks. Only the Steelers have ah higher pressure rate. Carolina has played sound football with only nine giveaways in nine games and 18 sacks allowed. This is a buy-low opportunity, but one I would reserve for GPP.

Cash – Possibly Fournette or Jones

GPP – Brady, Godwin, AB, D/ST, Gronkowski, Evans

Panthers – Pace is 30th

QB – On paper, no position is in a good spot for this week for the Panthers. The Bucs number one DVOA rank is backed up by being second against the pass and third against the run. Teddy Bridgewater has been matchup sensitive so far this year. His worst games have come against Chicago and Tampa, both in the top four in DVOA against the pass. He did have a poor outing against the Falcons, but getting banged up and weather mitigated that game.

Bridgewater is only 19th in pDB and 20th in points per game, and the lack of touchdowns remains an issue. He’s only thrown 11 on the season and that’s not even in the top 20. The flip side is he’s fifth in passing yards so the offense can move the ball. It also should be pointed out that Teddy B did have 30+ DK points against the Chiefs last week, who are the sixth best DVOA against the pass. I don’t trust him in cash but perhaps in game stacks I can get on board.

RB – Christian McCaffrey is all but ruled out this week, so it’s time to lock in Mike Davis. I know what folks are saying in the Discord. It’s the Bucs defense who just got embarrassed and they are angry. You’re not wrong, and the Bucs still rank first in rush yards allowed per game and third in DVOA. However, they allow the second-most receptions and sixth-most receiving yards to backs. Davis hit 15.5 DK points on 33 snaps the first meeting. Past success does not truly indicate future success, but I have to stress Davis could hit 4x at this price without gaining a single rushing yard. If he happened to go 8/80 receiving (and he went 8/74 the first time), he’s at 16 DK. He could go 5/50 and score, and still get to 4x. That’s without a rushing yard. The Carolina offense is geared towards backs catching passes, the glaring weakness for Tampa. I will have plenty of Davis and if he happens to score and have just 30-40 rushing yards, you could be talking 20+ DK in a hurry.

*Update* CMC is officially ruled out

WR – The receivers for Carolina are likely priced right about where they should be this week with Robby Anderson leading the group. He’s the clear leader in target share at 27.1% and has the air yards share lead as well at 38.6%. He’s a top 10 receiver in PPR formats despite scoring just one touchdown on the season and the matchup didn’t stop him the first time around. He went for 9/109/0 on 10 targets and has that style of outcome here again. He gets Jamel Dean who has been solid with a 1.60 pPT. Still, Dean does allow a 64.8% catch rate so we can see why Anderson was good the first time around.

What to do with D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel is a lot less clear. Out of nine games this year, Moore has just three games with more than six targets and the past three weeks have totaled just 14 total. On the other side, Samuel has 20 and seven rushing attempts to go with it. Samuel is still scary since he’s under 68% of the snaps and could disappear pretty much any game. Still, it’s not like Moore brings any safety either. I am more content with playing Samuel ahead of Moore now that CMC is likely out. Samuel also benefits in the matchup with Sean Murphy-Bunting ahead of Moore’s spot against Carlton Davis.

*Update* Davis is questionable for the Bucs, which would be a hit to their secondary.

TE – Ian Thomas is under a 6% target share and is not a part of the offense in any significant fashion.

D/ST – I know we just saw the Bucs get whooped on Sunday night, but the Panthers don’t have the same talent. They only have nine sacks on the season and have the third-lowest pressure rate in the league.

Cash – Davis, Anderson

GPP – Bridgewater, Samuel, Moore

Broncos at Raiders, O/U of 50.5 (Raiders -4)

Broncos – Pace is 5th

QB – I expected Drew Lock to be more expensive since he was coming of a 30+ DK game but he is still super affordable. Lock is still hard to gauge. He’s put together his two best games of the season but that’s about all we have to go on. Last week was somewhat lucky as well since his completion rate was under 53% but he kicked in 47 rushing yards and a score. This is another great matchup for him. Vegas ranks 26th in DVOA against the pass and have a matching 26th rank for passing yards allowed per game. Looking just at Lock isn’t inspiring. He’s 29th in pDB on the year and 28th in points per game. That is skewed by leaving early but still, it’s not ideal. It’s also important to remember that he looked even worse last week. I’m wasn’t thinking I’d use him in cash again, but it’s possible.

RB – It was some mighty bad production from the duo of Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay last week. They combined for 14 carries for 41 yards and only one reception. However, the matchup gets an awful lot better. Atlanta is eighth in run DVOA and we talk about how they are quietly stout against the run. Vegas ranks 32nd in DVOA and they have given up 1,195 scrimmage yards with 11 touchdowns. Even though the Broncos trailed through most of this game, Gordon still saw over 60% of the snaps and he would be my preferred play in this backfield. The fact this is a split does lower my overall interest though.

WR – It might not be a coincidence that Jerry Jeudy has had his two best games in the past two weeks. He’s started to play more on the boundary instead of the slot, which is maybe just where he’s comfortable. He’s always been a fantastic route runner and he’s totaled 24 targets the past two weeks, combining for 11/198/1. His price jumped almost $1,000 but he’s still cheaper than he should be at this target share (28.9% in those two weeks). The individual matchup is against second year corner Trayvon Mullen, who has allowed a 113.3 passer rating and a 1.90 pPT.

*Update* Coach Vic Fangio said he’s “confident” Jeudy will play, which is a little bit scary. I’d likely avoid in cash with that line from the coach.

Don’t overlook Tim Patrick or K.J. Hamler either. Patrick returned to the lineup and saw nine targets and scored, while Hamler saw 10 and went for 15 DK. The game script might not be as bad as last week but this one could well shoot out. Patrick gets Nevin Lawson who is almost the exact carbon copy of Mullen. Hamler should man the slot a good bit which means LaMarcus Joyner and he only runs a 4.5 40-yard dash. That means Hamler could torch him deep on any given play.

TE – It’s a shame that Noah Fant has had injury issues seemingly all year. He aggravated the ankle again this past week according to Coach Vic Fangio, but at least he returned to the game. We’ll see if he’s able to practice all week but the price is still solid. Fant is under $5,000 and may only be running the 17th most routes, but he still has upside. The Raiders have been good against the position so far with only three scores allowed but Fant is not that matchup sensitive to cast aside.

D/ST – Vegas has only allowed 14 sacks and they have nine turnovers, so they don’t check my boxes for offenses to attack. Denver is ninth in overall DVOA and have generated 22 sacks, but don’t have a massive strength to fall back on. At least they aren’t expensive but I prefer a play like the Giants.

Cash – Lock

GPP – Jeudy, Patrick, Hamler, Gordon, Lindsay, Fant

Raiders – Pace is 25th

QB – Playing Lock over Derek Carr likely saved me to a big extent in cash last week as Lock more than doubled him up in points. Carr did maintain his penchant for throwing two touchdowns, but the 165 yards was fairly disappointing. Even with some bumps in the road, Carr is still at a 16:2 TD:INT ratio on the season. Looking at the metrics, Carr is right about average across the board. He sits 16th in yards, 11th in touchdowns, 15th in pDB and 12th in RZ attempts. His deep ball still remains a good weapon with a 46.7% completion rate, good for 11th in the league. Denver is 17th in passing yards allowed per game and 12th in DVOA, so I don’t have any pressing need to play Carr this week.

RB – It was a little jarring to see Josh Jacobs only have 14 carries and perhaps he was nursing that knee injury more than we thought. We’ll need to keep an eye on the practice reports, but Denver is 13th in DVOA against the run. That’s mostly shown up in the production as well with only 737 rushing yards allowed through eight games. They’ve also allowed only four scores and 279 receiving yards, so there’s not a glaring weakness to attack. With Chubb, Sanders and even Jones sitting within $600 of Jacobs, I know where I’m heading.

WR – When Carr only throws for 165 yards, there’s not going to be a receiver that stands out. Nelson Agholor continues to live his best life with 55 yards and another score on just three targets. That’s better than Henry Ruggs who did not record a reception this past week. Ruggs has yet to record more than three receptions and has two or fewer in every game but one. He is the textbook definition of a boom or bust play, and he only has one boom game on his resume thus far. That doesn’t mean he’s incapable, it’s just what he’s put on the field to this point.

Agholor should face A.J. Bouye and that’s not great for Agholor. He’s battle injuries and I think he’s a lot better than the 2.10 pPT allowed to this point. Ruggs get Michael Ojemudia and has a significant speed advantage. It’s not often a corner runs 4.45 and is 0.2 seconds slower than the receiver they face. Even Hunter Renfrow has a tougher matchup with Bryce Callahan, who has a 1.20 pPT and 62.9 passer rating on 50 targets.

TE – There’s never really a doubt of who to stack Carr with if that’s the route you want to take. It’s Darren Waller, who leads in target share at 28.5%, RZ targets at 12 and EZ targets at five. No other player has more than four RZ targets (Renfrow) and only Agholor has more than two EZ targets (four). Waller leads the team in receiving yards, although that’s much closer and is the TE2 in PPR settings this season. Here’s my issue with him – he’s really pricey at $5,900.

Waller has had one game so far this year where he would have hit 3x at this salary. The price came up after 13.2 DK last week, which makes little sense. Being the most expensive option at the position does him no favors in my eyes, as he hasn’t shown the ceiling to be worth it. The one facet Waller has going for him is the Chargers have struggled a bit with tight ends without safety Derwin James. They’ve given up the ninth-most DK points per game to the position and six scores already. The only way I’m paying for Waller is game stacks.

D/ST – I’m tempted since Lock is still very much a question, but the nine sacks and five turnovers forced through eight games isn’t very redeeming for Vegas. Perhaps if I love the rest of my lineup and only have $2,500 left in GPP.

Cash – None, Carr is closest

GPP – Waller, Jacobs, Ruggs, Agholor

Bills at Cardinals, O/U of 56.5 (Cardinals -2.5)

Bills – Pace is 23rd

QB – Not that I was out on a limb or anything, but it was nice to say Josh Allen was about my favorite quarterback last week and see him smash. He almost hit 40 DK points, throwing three touchdowns and running one in for good measure. Yes, Seattle is really that bad on defense. This matchup is a good bit different as Arizona is 11th in DVOA against the pass and are 19th in passing yards allowed per game.

Lest we think Allen can only get it done in great matchups, he has two huge games against the Dolphins and Rams, who are top 10 in DVOA against the pass. He’s seventh in pDB, sixth in points per game and fifth in passing touchdowns. Adding five rushing scores doesn’t hurt and Allen is still a prime candidate in any format. Of the top five QB’s in salary this week, I’d rank him about fourth behind only Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers and then it’s tough with Russell Wilson and Watson. Still, you can’t go wrong with Allen.

RB – This backfield is a pain but we also have to remember Buffalo barely made an effort to run the ball last week against Seattle. Memo to Pete Carroll – other teams know that your weakness is against the pass. You may want to expect it from now on. Anywho, back to the task at hand. Zack Moss out-snapped Devin Singletary for the second straight week and had nine carries to two for Singletary. The targets and receptions were in favor of Singletary…by one each. It really seems like Moss is who we want to play, but I’m not overly pumped with the price for a split backfield. The Cards are just a mediocre 16th in DVOA against the run so this spot isn’t anything the we have to chase like crazy. They have allowed over 1,100 scrimmage yards so if you take this route, Moss is the guy.

WR – Stefon Diggs has been one of my favorite receivers in football for a while now and I love seeing him thrive. However, I want to urge just a hair of caution here. This is the highest price he’s been all season long. At this salary, he needs 22.5 DK to hit 3x. Out of the eight games played so far, he’s gone over that mark three times and two of them were 23 points. That isn’t to say he can’t, especially in a shoot out style game. After all, he sits ninth in air yards share in the NFL and is third in target share at 29.3%. I still have every intention playing him in any format because I do think the ceiling is in play here. Patrick Peterson has allowed a 115.7 passer rating and a 71.4% catch rate this season on 56 targets.

Can I interest you in a John Brown revenge game? I’m really only kidding, but the ex-Cardinal is a significant part of this passing game. He was healthy this past game for the first time since around Week 2 or 3 and he went for 8/99/0 on 11 targets. His 17.78 target share actually edges out Cole Beasley and ha’s in fewer games and playing while hurt. I prefer Brown as the second receiver and if you take the route of stacking with Allen, it’s these two first and foremost. Brown gets Dre Kirkpatrick who has been dreadful this season. He’s over a 70% catch rate and an 11.2 YPR.

*Update* Safety Budda Baker is questionable, which would be a massive loss for Arizona.

TE – Yes, I know Tyler Kroft caught a touchdown last week but this offense doesn’t use that position. None of them have a target share over 6.2% and that’s for Dawson Knox. Kroft has five RZ targets but that’s not enough to get me to play him this week.

D/ST – I’m not really looking to play either defense in this game and Buffalo is down to 17th in overall DVOA. They have gotten home often with 24 sacks but they’re not even super cheap to make a case for them.

Cash – Allen, Diggs, Brown

GPP – Moss, Beasley

Cardinals – Pace is 3rd

QB – Remember when Kyler Murray might have gone to play baseball? Yeah, good thing that didn’t happen. He is going berserk right now and is the 2020 answer to Lamar Jackson, only he has better passing upside. Murray would be eighth in rushing yards among running backs, let alone any passing production. He’s on pace to set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns by the position with 16. Oh by the way, he’s racked up 2,130 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns and has cut down on the sacks this year as well. He’s taken over as the QB1 on the slate and with no Mahomes, he is a worthy player to be the most expensive option. He needs to hit 24 DK to hit 3x and that is his floor this year. He’s not been lower than that mark and has four games over 30 DK, two over 40. There’s zero reason to shy away from the salary and he’s in play in all formats, stacked or not.

RB – Well, Chase Edmonds flopped pretty hard and that much I could handle. My frustration came from he got the exact workload I thought he would. When a back gets 28 touches, it’s hard to argue that you shouldn’t have played him. It just didn’t work out. I’m going to be tempted to go right back to the well if Kenyan Drake is out again as well. Buffalo is 22nd in DVOA against the run and have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to backs. For all of Kyler’s touchdown prowess, he only has 15 RZ attempts to 22 for Drake and seven for Edmonds. Kyler is always a three to run it in, but it might be a little exaggerated since he has 84 rushing yards on those 15 attempts. He’s had goal line carries for sure but he’s also had some from just inside the 20. Drake was limited Thursday so let’s see what Friday brings.

*Update* Drake is questionable, and with six games in this window you can take the risk he plays with other pivots. I’m interested either way, whether he plays or it’s Edmonds again.

WR – DeAndre Hopkins has fallen to eighth in raw targets across the league, although he is still top five in target share. This is going to be interesting. Over the last three weeks, Christian Kirk has been a monster, posting three consecutive games over 20 DK and scoring five touchdowns. That’s come off 19 targets to 23 for Hopkins. Kirk also has the RZ and EZ target lead and I wonder if everyone just flocks to Kirk. He’s $2,000 cheaper and doesn’t face Bills corner Tre White. Kirk faces Levi Wallace who statistically hasn’t been too shabby. He’s at a 74.2 passer rating allowed and only a 1.40 pPT.

Nuk has paid off his current price tag four of eight games but if he’s not going to be popular, I might wind up preferring him to Kirk in GPP. I’m not sure I feel comfortable playing other in cash right now. Kirk just seems too good to be true. With Nuk, White has really struggled this year with a 2.60 pPT and a 16.2 YPR allowed. It’s only been 31 targets but yikes. He could be really interesting leverage if Kirk is more popular.

*Update* Safety Micah Hyde is questionable and just like Baker for the Cards, it would be a massive loss for the Buffalo defense that is beleaguered as it is.

TE – The tight end isn’t utilized in this offense and we can pass on it quickly.

D/ST – The only reason you’re playing this defense is hoping that Allen makes a mistake or two in a pass heavy script. He could fumble as well, but Arizona scuffled against a rookie quarterback in his second start last week. I don’t love them here either.

Cash – Kyler, Edmonds if Drake is out

GPP – Nuk, Kirk

Chargers at Dolphins, O/U of 48.5 (Dolphins -1.5)

Chargers – Pace is 11th

QB – It appears that Justin Herbert has been put on this Earth to play quarterback and chew bubblegum, and this dude is all out of bubblegum. He had no fewer than three different touchdown passes dropped last week (two consecutive plays to end the game) but Herbert put the ball in the right spot each time. He’s averaging 26.9 DK points and that’s fifth in the league. The rookie trails only Russ in yards per game at over 306 and just seems to come through each and every week. The Dolphins are no walk in the park, as they are eighth in DVOA against the pass but 21st in yards allowed per game. The facet keeping them afloat is the “bend but don’t break” philosophy. Miami has only given up 11 touchdowns through the air, tied for the third-least. If Herbert gets looked over for the upper tier, he makes for a dynamite GPP play with 30 point upside.

RB – Do you absolutely hate the idea of Mike Davis? Can I interest you in Troymaine Pope? I will be much heavier on Davis, but Pope could line up to be a gutsy pivot. Justin Jackson is supposed to be rested this week, leaving Pope, Kalen Ballage and Joshua Kelley as the active backs. Ballage got 16 touches while Kelley got 14, but neither did a ton with it. Ballage scored but past that, the scores were about the same. Pope came out of nowhere two weeks ago for 15 touches on just 15 snaps. This backfield is a mess, but if playing anyone you may as well take a show at the player who’s the exact price of Davis and saw seven targets in his last active game.

*Update* Ballage was called back up from the practice squad but I’ll stand firm as ranking the backfield Pope>Ballage>Kelley.

WR – We just talked about Keenan Allen being in play every single week and he still is. However, if there was a week where I might hedge a bit it could be this one. Allen is playing under 45% of his snaps from the slot, which isa bit low for him. When he’s on the outside, facing either Byron Jones and Xavien Howard is no picnic. He’d likely face more Jones than anyone, but if LAC is smart they just leave Allen in the slot 100% of the time. Neither corner is over an 8% slot rate and they will not be comfortable in that alignment. I think Allen is still a cash play, but this is as “unsafe” as he’s been with Herbert in my eyes.

Mike Williams was among the most tilting plays of the weekend (must be something about wearing a Chargers uniform) as he dropped two touchdowns. I’m not particularly on him in this spot, though he does have the ability to just high point the ball over about any corner in football. He should see more Howard who has only allowed a 55.0 passer rating and a 1.50 pPT. The “easiest” corner matchup is Jalen Guyton on Nik Needham. We can even play the Brian Tulloch angle since Brian played him last week and needed that 70-yard bomb. He’s wholly unstable but has a 14 and 16 point DK game. It takes just one play.

TE – It continues to just be frustration after frustration for Hunter Henry. He’s yet to exceed 14 DK with Herbert and he’s only broken double-digits twice. It would be easy to stop playing him if he wasn’t getting targeted but he is, and a good bit at that. The 17.4% target share is second on the team under Herbert and he still ranks 29th in catchable passes. The 33 receptions are good for ninth at the position but Henry just always seems to flop. It’s wise to have a share or two if you play multiple lineups, because he could be due a multi-touchdown game. It’s just hard to tell when that’s coming.

D/ST – LA is not really a defense that I want to target. They give up about 27 points per game, have only seven turnovers forced and only have two sacks per game. The pressure rate is in the top half of the league but they just can’t get home.

*Update* They are down Joey Bosa now as well, so no real interest here.

Cash – Herbert, Allen

GPP – Pope, Kelley, Williams, Henry

Dolphins – Pace is 31st

QB – We got to see a little more of what Tua Tagovailoa is going to look like in the NFL and it wasn’t too shabby. He probably should’ve thrown a pick or two and got a little lucky, but settled in as the game went on. Tua wound up going 20-28 with two passing touchdowns and scampered around for 35 yards rushing. He only has one turnover so far in two games, which is a credit to him. In the early going, he has a 0.42 pDB and that’s right about in line with Matthew Stafford. That’s nothing spectacular but I could be far worse this early. His completion rate under pressure stands out as well at 54.5%. The Chargers are 14th in DVOA against the pass so it’s an average matchup. I don’t feel the need to play Tua but maybe a sprinkle in MME wouldn’t hurt. I do prefer other options under $6,000.

RB – Holy smokes this is rough. Matt Breida was limited Thursday but missed last week. Jordan Howard is dust. DeAndre Washington should be active after coming over from KC, but they could be mixed into a three man RBBC. I want to see what Friday dictates before making any decisions, but I’m not psyched about this backfield in the least.

*Update* Friday Brough no real clarity and there’s just so many other options this week.

WR – This is an interesting spot. DeVante Parker is sure to get attention since Preston Williams is on the IR. The price is very cheap and so far with Tua under center, Parker is second in targets behind Williams. It’s important to remember that the Rams matchup was weird and Tua only attempted 24 throws. I don’t think we can conclude that he won’t throw to Parker since he had seven targets this past game. Michael Davis should draw most of the assignment and has played well this year, with a 78.8 passer rating and a 10.6 YPR on 52 targets.

Jakeem Grant enters into the punt conversation as well. He only played 48% of the snaps but he saw most of his work after Williams left. Grant is likely cast in the slot and he does have some big-play ability. He’s the kind of receiver that can take a 5-yard slant to the house as he’s shown in the return game a little bit. At bare minimum and with Desmond King now in Tennessee, he does make sense as a punt. My fear is he could see some Casey Hayward but at the minimum, it’s a fine chance to take because Hayward isn’t going full shadow on Grant.

TE – It has been a very slow season for Mike Gesicki. The hope had been that Tua starting could jumpstart his season but so far, that’s not happened. Gesicki is fourth in targets and receptions with Tua and it’s harder every week to recommend playing him. It’s especially annoying to look at his metrics. He has the third-highest slot rate among tight ends, sixth-highest route rate and eight RZ targets. Yet, he’s the TE21. He’s not even really cheap, so I’ll likely find other options and weep when he has a big game.

*Update* Durham Smythe is questionable so that could lead to more snaps for Gesicki.

D/ST – The Chargers offense is good but I feel like we shouldn’t sleep on the Dolphins here. They struggle to defend the run at 29th in DVOA, but they are eighth against the pass. Coach Brian Flores has coaxed 20 sacks and 13 turnovers out of this unit so far while only giving up 20 points per contest. It’s a strength on strength matchup but anytime Miami is under $3,000, they are in play.

Cash – D/ST, Parker is close

GPP – Grant, Tua, Gesicki

49ers at Saints, O/U of 49 (Saints -9.5)

49ers – Pace is 28th

QB – I don’t believe I want to get too involved with this situation. Nick Mullens had another two turnovers last game and has six to five touchdown passes. He’s already been yanked mid-game once and that is always on the table. You can build the argument the this is a let-down spot for the Saints (it is after an emotional win Sunday night) but I’m not sure Mullens can do much here. His pDB is only 0.39 and he would need to produce a ton in garbage time like he did last week. Since he’s priced among some more accomplished quarterbacks, I’m likely going other directions.

RB – Oh Kyle Shanahan how I despise you somedays. After reports of JaMycal Hasty being the main back and Jerick McKinnon nursing “tired legs”, McKinnon was the one who got all the work last Thursday night. His legs were tired but he was in there when the game was over a 25 point difference. Okay, Kyle. We see you. He played 74% of the snaps while Hasty got 26% and the touches were skewed that bad as well. McKinnon had 15 touches to just six for Hasty and the problem now is we can’ be sure who’s the lead back. The game before, Hasty had 12 carries to three for McKinnon. If you pick wrong here, you’re likely dead in the water. On top of that, New Orleans is fifth in DVOA against the run and have only allowed 802 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns so far. I’ll let someone else mess with this backfield.

WR – So I don’t think we can project Richie James to score 36.4 DK again, possibly ever in the history of the league. He had all of 23 total snaps on the season before that explosion and he may not even be on the roster this week, but we’ll see. Even if he is, I don’t think I’d want to play him again. San Francisco should welcome back the duo of Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne.

Aiyuk is very cheap and the 49ers should be chasing points here. Aiyuk is the active target leader on this team with George Kittle out for the foreseeable future. He’s put together two strong games back-to-back before the Covid diagnosis. Aiyuk combined for a 14/206/1 in those games and is a nice value, regardless of Marshon Lattimore. He only seems to play well against Mike Evans anymore and is up to a 2.20 pPT and a 120.5 passer rating allowed. Bourne typically plays at least 70% of the snaps if Deebo is inactive and has a 14.9% target rate on his own with 21.4% of the air yards. The air yards is third on the team and target share is third among active players so don’t forget about him.

TE – The snap share was heavily in favor of Ross Dwelley over Jordan Reed last week to about a 75%-25% rate. I do have to wonder if a longer week helps Reed get onto the field more this time around. It kind of feels like Reed gutted through not being healthy yet to try and help the team. We know that Reed has some big upside at this salary with a 24 DK point DK game this season. Granted, that was against the Jets but New Orleans has been a bottom 10 team to tight ends this year for DK points allowed. The six touchdowns allowed is tied for third-most. With them being about the same price, I’d prefer to gamble with Reed.

D/ST – They’re in the dome and the Saints are at full strength on offense for the first time in a long time. I’ll pass here.

Cash – Aiyuk

GPP – Mullens, Reed, Bourne

Saints – Pace is 26th

QB – Drew Brees might be picking up some steam here. He’s been over 23 DK in three of the past four games, and the 19 DK in Chicago is fairy impressive as well. In those four games, Brees has gone for nine touchdowns which is over half his season total. The yardage hasn’t been crazy high but at his current salary, 22-24 DK would be right about a 4x return. The veteran is still lagging far behind the pack in deep throws with just nine on the year and that does cap the yardage to some extent. Still, the 0.51 pDB is up to 13th and he has his full offense back. Brees seems fairly cheap given he’s in New Orleans and I wonder if he flies under the radar here.

RB – Alvin Kamara might be outside of the top 15 backs in carries, but the 72 targets more than makes up for everything else. This isn’t the easiest matchup with San Francisco ranking sixth in DVOA against the run but they are about average as far as defending receiving backs. Kamara is more or less matchup proof. He doesn’t have the huge games the past few weeks that will catch people’s eyes either. Kamara only had 14 touches last week and really wasn’t needed that much. If 14 touches and 15.9 DK is the floor, that tells you where the ceiling is on any given day. Most will flock to the cheaper backs leaving Kamara as an excellent GPP play.

Latavius Murray continues to get a good chunk of carries (he’s actually 27th in the league with 81) and if this game goes sideways, he may approach the 12 touches he had last week. If he scores a TD, he would have a shot at a 3x return and with Mike Davis at the same price, nobody is playing him. This would be an MME only play for me.

WR – Michael Thomas made his return to the lineup but only played 55% of the snaps. That’s not something I’m very worried about as the Saints had zero incentive to push him with a 21 point lead so early. We just saw the 49ers get dominated by Davante Adams and while Adams>Thomas, MT is still very cheap for his typical production. He only has a 17.7% target share on the year but I can’t get past the price here. Even the matchup against Jason Verrett isn’t enough to completely leave me off Thomas. I will have some exposure without any question and he could be a great pivot off the Rams receiving options we’ll talk about next game.

Emmanuel Sanders and Tre’Quan Smith both caught touchdowns but Sanders remains the primary target in the corps. He had five targets to just two for Smith, and most games won’t go like Sunday night. Sanders draws Emmanuel Moseley, who has been targeted 48 times and has a 1.90 pPT allowed. Kamara, Thomas and Sanders will be the main three cogs in the passing game. Sanders is fairly cheap and has a 20.3% target share with nine RZ targets, most on the team. He’s worth looking at in game stacks, especially a Brees/MT/Sanders style play.

TE – It was not a good game for Jared Cook Sunday night, with only three targets and a fumble. He’s down under a 13% target share on the season though he does have eight RZ and five EZ targets. You have to wonder how much of that he retains with Thomas back, just like Sanders. His price is not all that appealing to me and San Francisco has only allowed two touchdowns so far. It really seems like he’s going to be the fourth option in this passing game and a pricey one for the position he plays.

D/ST – The Saints are likely my favorite mid-range defense on this slate. The price is affordable and they are in the top half of the league in pressure rate, generating 22 sacks so far. The turnovers forced have been average at just nine, but Mullens should help that rate a little bit this week.

Cash – Brees, Thomas, Kamara, D/ST

GPP – Sanders, Cook, Murray

Seahawks at Rams, O/U of 54.5 (Rams -1.5)

Seahawks – Pace is 18th

QB – It was a pretty humbling loss for the Seahawks this past week. In the past three games for Russell Wilson, he has a total of seven turnovers. You’ll likely hear that a good bit in any MVP discussion but his DK point totals in those three games are still excellent at 35.9, 28.7 and 29.1. He still leads the league in touchdowns, is fourth in yards, second in pDB and second in points per game. The biggest fear in my eyes is the mismatch in the trenches. Wilson is under the fifth-highest pressure rate in the league and some of that is Wilson’s fault as well. He’s tied for the third-longest pocket time. The Rams have generated 25 sacks already and Aaron Donald looms large. Russ has the third-highest completion rate at 53.1% but there is some danger here. Having said all that, Wilson is still cheap and well in play here.

RB – We still need some clarity here as Chris Carson is not practicing yet. The trio of Travis Homer, DeeJay Dallas and Alex Collins all split snaps last week, with Homer playing the most at 48%. He and Dallas had nine touches each and Homer had more targets, which is likely the most valuable of what we need. This game should shoot out so Homer is the pick if Carson can’t go, but I don’t like any player a ton. Collins only got two touches so I wouldn’t take that route at all.

*Update* Carson remains questionable. Just like Drake, we have enough options you can pivot to him once we know if he’s active, but we really won’t know until Sunday.

WR – This might be about the weirdest season ever for Tyler Lockett. He’s WR5 in PPR settings but yet of the eight games he’s played, four have been under 10 DK points. Six have been under 20 and then two have been over 40! When he’s hit, Lockett has been close to a slate breaker but the he hasn’t, he’s sunk your lineup. D.K. Metcalf has drawn the tougher matchups but has been far more consistent. Seven of his eight games have been over 17 DK and four have been well over 20. Metcalf has 10 fewer receptions than Locket but almost 200 more yards and one more touchdown.

We’ll be putting that theory to test again this week because Metcalf could get Jalen Ramsey this week. Myself and Ghost seem to think he could face Lockett more. Ramsey has played plenty of slot so they might opt to have Ramsey shut Lockett down and turn Seattle into just one receiver. Even if Metcalf gets Ramsey, I don’t care much. Metcalf has already burned Stephon Gilmore and Tre White, elite players at the position. David Moore could be a very deep punt in this game, with nine targets over the past two weeks. If Metcalf or Lockett has a slow game again, Moore could pick up a little slack.

*Update* Ramsey himself said he won’t shadow Metcalf. Game on.

TE – The tight end spot has evolved into a messy situation. Jacob Hollister, Will Dissly and Greg Olsen are all under 50% of the snaps but Hollister might be the best option here. He played the most snaps last week and drew seven targets. I don’t think that repeats very often but if you wanted a tight end punt, Hollister works to some extent.

D/ST – This unit has actually made some splash plays with 14 turnovers forced and that’s tied for third-most. The sacks are only at 19 but I don’t like the idea of playing them against the Rams coming out of a bye. I have to expect Rams Coach Sean McVay has a plan to exploit these weaknesses.

Cash – Russ, Metcalf

GPP – Lockett, Moore, Hollister

Rams – Pace is 16th

QB – Seattle has faced the most passing attempts on the season, but I’m not sure that’s an excuse to be giving up 362 passing yards per game. Atlanta is still second at 310, a 52 yard difference. To their small credit, Seattle has only allowed 16 touchdown passes but I still want a piece of Jared Goff. He only ranks 20th in pass plays per game and 19th in pDB but the matchup is just too good. Time after time, Seattle has gotten ripped in the passing game. Typically, Goff would have to be crazy efficient for a ceiling game because the Rams are fifth in rush attempts per game. If Goff and McVay don’t throw the ball here against the 29th ranked DVOA against the pass, I have to question just how smart McVay actually is.

RB – One of the reasons Seattle has faced the most passing attempts is because they’re ninth in DVOA against the run and fourth in yards allowed per game. That’s not a great mix for a potential RBBC with Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and possibly Cam Akers. Henderson is supposed to play but with it being a split backfield in a bad matchup on paper, I’m not interested to any real capacity. I would lean Henderson over anyone else.

WR – We should love all three of the main receivers this week and yes, I did say three. Cooper Kupp is still my favorite even though he’s the most expensive. Kupp has been in the slot the eighth-most this season at 53.9% and the Seahawks have no player to cover him in that alignment. He’s been banged up this week so we need to monitor that closely. D.J. Reed isn’t going to stop him so the only thing that could is injury.

Robert Woods is slightly cheaper and is just as good a play and I will have shares of both in game stacks. Woods is averaging two rushing attempts per game and has two rushing touchdowns, raising his floor just a little bit. Only Curtis Samuel has more rushing attempts from the receiver position (no I’m not counting Cordarrelle Patterson and you can’t make me). Woods should get some Quinton Dunbar but that matters little. He played clearly hurt last week and that could be the same story this week.

My favorite wide receiver punt on the slate is Josh Reynolds. He has a respectable 13.9% target share, is one air yard off the team lead behind Kupp and leads in RZ targets. Reynolds also has the second-most EZ targets and the highest aDOT on the team. In a high scoring game, Reynolds could see the eight or nine targets he saw the previous two games and is in a smash matchup.

*Update* Dunbar and Shaq Griffin are both out for the Seahawks and the receivers really should have a field day here.

TE – Tyler Higbee made it back into the lineup before the bye week, but he’s still a tough sell for me. His 51.4% route rate is only 30th among tight ends and he’s fourth on his team in target rate at 10.4%. What’s worse is he’s only got three RZ targets all season. Outside of his three touchdown game against the Eagles, Higbee doesn’t have a game over 8.6 DK all season.

D/ST – I actually really don’t mind the Rams as a punt defense. We talked earlier about the mismatch along the lines and that could cause sacks and turnovers. Wilson has been sacked the third-most times and even if the Rams give up a lot of points, they can still score 6-8 DK which is more than fine at the salary.

Cash – Goff, Kupp, Woods

GPP – Reynolds, D/ST

Bengals at Steelers, O/U of 46.5 (Steelers -7)

Bengals – Pace is 14th

QB – This is among the toughest matchups that Joe Burrow has faced and he has been somewhat matchup sensitive. His worst game so far has come against Baltimore, who are seventh in DVOA against the pass. He managed to hit 20 DK against the Colts but scored a rushing touchdown. The Steelers represent the best passing DVOA he has faced so far at third. Burrow does have volume in his favor, as he’s second in attempts per game and he sits eighth in passing yards. Pittsburgh has only allowed the fifth-least passing yards per game and even with the volume built in, I don’t love Burrow here. The completion rate under pressure rate is 32nd at 28.6% and the Steelers have the highest pressure rate in football.

RB – We may as well assume that Joe Mixon will not be active this week since he’s still not practicing after the bye week. That’s going to leave Gio Bernard as the lead back and he’s had 18 touches in each game without Mixon. The Steelers have been a bit rough against the run lately, with over 140 yards allowed in each of the past two games. Gio is going to be under the radar with Duke Johnson and Mike Davis cheaper, at the least. Still, I’m not sure this a risk worth taking. Pittsburgh is still fourth in DVOA against the run and they still rank in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game. Gio will mostly be a pass for me.

WR – I think even though he’s priced the highest, Tyler Boyd has to be the first play out of these receivers. He not only leads the Bengals in target share at 221.2% but he draws perhaps the softest matchup of the group as well. Mike Hilton is in line to return for Pittsburgh but he’s allowed a 71.4% catch rate and a 115.0 passer rating so far. Boyd’s aDOT is the lowest of the receivers and Burrow is going to have to get the ball out quick. If Pittsburgh is foolish enough to play base defense and leave a guy like T.J. Watt on Boyd like they did with CeeDee Lamb last week, Boyd will score.

*Update* Not that he scared me, but Hilton is questionable. That would be an ever bigger reason to like Boyd.

The projection is that Joe Haden will mostly see Tee Higgins and that’s going to be a tougher task for the rookie. Haden is down to a 1.20 pPT and only a 73.2 passer rating allowed. In fairness, he has been fairly consistent after he started to get on the field Week 3 with no games under 10.2 DK points. I just don’t prefer him in this spot. Also, I’m not really looking at A.J. Green. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me six times, that just makes me an idiot.

TE -Drew Sample really isn’t part of the offense in any major way and has just 14.4 DK points in the last four games. Two of those games were goose egg performances, so the floor is legitimately zero. With a route rate of only 64.7%, he could block an awful lot this week.

D/ST – Check back with me if Ben Roethlisberger is out.

Cash – Boyd is closest

GPP – Burrow, Higgins, Gio

Steelers – Pace is 27th

QB – As a note, this is written as if Big Ben is going to play in Sunday. He hasn’t tested positive, so he still does have a legitimate shot to suit up. If he does, his price is super low and he finally flashed his ceiling last week. Of course, it did me no good since I wasn’t on him as a 14 point favorite but we know the veteran still does have it. He’s still just 18th in pDB but he’s also seventh in touchdowns. Cincinnati is 25th in DVOA against the pass and 23rd in passing yards allowed per game. They are also tied for the fifth-most touchdown passes allowed, so this is a good spot and Roethlisberger is at a very low price. With the defense showing some cracks the past two weeks, it’s possible this turns into a shoot out.

RB – The game script was in Bizarro World last week, but it’s still tough not to notice how James Conner was under a 50% snap rate. He still had 11 touches but Anthony McFarland and Benny Snell were on the field a lot last week. I don’t think it’s anything to worry about at this juncture and Conner should be back to workhorse duties this week. The Bengals represent a great bounciest back spot, as they are 25th against the run in DVOA and have allowed the third-most rushing yards among teams with eight games. I really don’t care for the price, as it didn’t move after a four point DK game. He has only hit 3x at this salary three times so far this year and I could see him being a little disappointing.

WR – In every game that Diontae Johnson hasn’t either left with injury or been evaluated for injury, he’s had double-digit targets. I’m hard pressed to see why that stops this week and he leads in target share at 20.2%. The air yards are about 8% higher than JuJu Smith-Schuster, but with Ben having issues with his deep ball I’m not sure that’s anything of note. Pittsburgh plays in 11 personnel over 60% of the time, and Johnson should see some of LeShaun Sims. That’s advantage Johnson since Sims has a 2.20 pPT so far this year.

Smith-Schuster is in the slot about 80% of the time this season and Bengals corner Mackensie Alexander, who sports a 70.6% completion rate and 1.60 pPT. These two will be my main targets this week and Chase Claypool is more the boom or bust receiver. He did see 13 (!) targets last week, a career high. I don’t expect Ben to throw quite as much and in honesty, Claypool did not have a great game. A couple really bad drops kept him away from a huge line. I do fear the staff dials him back from 80% of the snaps to somewhere closer to 55%-60%. William Jackson has played fairly well with a catch rate under 58% but Claypool seems to flash almost every week.

TE – With Eric Ebron already over 80% of the snaps, I don’t believe the loss of Vance McDonald changes much here. Cincy is tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed and second-most DK per game to the position. Ebron has also seen 23 targets over the past four weeks, showing his involvement in the offense is here to stay. There’s still some floor but he’s in double-digits for three straight games. I think we can ride the hot streak and the ball is spread around enough for him to still pay off.

D/ST – Not to be a jerk, but I do feel vindicated saying to not pay so much for the Steelers defense last week because they weren’t worth it. This is another great spot for them since the Bengals are tied for the second-most sacks given up and have a high pressure rate allowed. It’s still the same story for me though. Pittsburgh needs to score over 13 DK to hit 3x at this salary. That’s a LOT for a defense and I’ll just spend less looking for more upside relative to price.

Cash – Johnson, JuJu, Conner

GPP – Ben, Claypool, Ebron

Core Four

Aaron Jones, Mike Davis, Kyler Murray, Stefon Diggs

Jones and Davis are just plug and play options. We’re paying $11,100 for a potential 50 DK points if they hit their ceilings, and the respective floors are awfully safe. I maintain that Jones is at least $1,000 too cheap. Kupp follows the flow chart of picking on the Seattle defense that is missing two corners now on top of everything else. If you need the couple hundred in savings, I have no issue playing Woods but absolutely prefer Kupp with no injury designation. Lastly, I do like Chubb if he’s 100% cleared. That is not a definite as of this writing and if there’s any questions, pivoting down to Duke is quite simple.

*SATURDAY UPDATE*

I’m moving Chubb out of the Core Four. While I still have a nice dose of him in GPP, it’s just easier to fit other elements without Chubb. I do think if there was ever a week to go four WR in cash, this could be it with so many excellent receiving plays up top and not a ton of backs. It’s a rare week that I will put a QB in the core, but Murray’s floor has been 3x and that game is the highest O/U on the slate. Using a cheap Josh Reynolds and cheap TE still leaves you an easy path to spend up on Kyler, Diggs and Jones. Full credit to Stix for brainstorming with me and getting me on this particular path.

Primary Game Stacks

BUF/ARI – Kyler, Diggs, Nuk, Brown, Kirk, Cards RB, Allen, Beasley

SEA/LAR – Goff, Kupp, Woods, Metcalf, Reynolds, Lockett, Russ, Moore

JAX/GB – Jones, Rodgers, Adams, Chark, Conley, Eifert, Lazard, Luton, Robinson

Secondary Game Stacks

HOU/CLE – Watson, Cooks, Duke, Fuller, Chubb, Landry, Hooper, Hunt

SF/NO – Brees, Thomas, Kamara, Bourne, Aiyuk, Sanders, Reed, McKinnon

CIN/PIT – Big Ben, Diontae, Claypool, Boyd, Higgins, Conner, JuJu, Gio, Burrow

TB/CAR – Brady, Godwin, Davis, Anderson, Samuel, Evans, AB

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

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NFL Game by Game Breakdown Week 9

After a not-so-great Week 8, it’s time to get back on the horse and get ready for Week 9! We have a bunch of injuries that are looming and some great spots to sift through, along with some plays that have a crazy price. Let’s get into all that and plenty more in NFL Game by Game Breakdown Week 9 and find those green screens!

Panthers at Chiefs, O/U of 52.5 (Chiefs -10.5)

Panthers – Pace of 28th

QB – It was a pretty disappointing day for Teddy Bridgewater in the rain last Thursday and on paper this matchup is far worse. Kansas City is inside the top five in DVOA against the pass and have only given up a 9:9 TD:INT ratio on the season. Only the Bears and the Dolphins have given up fewer touchdown passes so far and KC is third-best as far as giving up passing yards at just 201 yards per contest. Bridgewater doesn’t have a ton going for him as he sits 24th in fpDB (fantasy points per drop back) and 24th in points per game. We’ve talked all year how he was mostly just missing touchdowns since he’s fifth in yardage. That’s impressive since Carolina is only 24th in passing plays per game but this doesn’t scream out as a spot he can throw 2-3 touchdowns, so I’ll likely go elsewhere.

RB – It sure looks like Christian McCaffrey will be back for this game and I find it being a tough decision. On the one hand, he is wildly cheap. CMC has been in the $10,000 range for the better part of a full season, going back to last year. You have to believe if the Panthers bring him back, he’s ready to go full tilt and they’re not going to force it. If he’s active I expect a full workload and $8,500 would be cheap. Kansas City is a great matchup on the ground as well, since they rank 28th in DVOA against the run and 29th in rushing yards allowed per game. The Chiefs have given up over 1,200 scrimmage yards but just four touchdowns. The fear is KC pulls so far ahead that CMC doesn’t get a full run.

WR – Since it was a down day for Teddy B, no receiver did much other than Curtis Samuel. He scored twice on a total of seven touches (four receptions and three rush attempts) so I think we can safely say that was a bit flukey. Samuel hauled in a 29-yard touchdown and finished with 31 receiving yards. Do the math on that one. Robby Anderson had his quietest days of the season with just 9.8 DK points. He would mostly draw Charvarius Ward, although Ward is right around 52% snap rate. Ward has allowed a catch rate over 63% so far but I don’t feel Anderson is needed and would be more a game stack option.

D.J. Moore was silent for about 57 minutes of game time before he charged back for two big catches late. He still holds the air yards lead over Anderson at a 40.1% rate to 38% for Anderson so he big play is definitely in his repertoire. Both receivers have four EZ targets as well so the pricing should likely be just a little closer. Moore gets to face Bashaud Breeland who is at about a 60% snap rate but only allows a 0.80 pPT (points per target).

TE – Thursday was only the second time Ian Thomas has been over five DK points all season and he’s still under a 6% target share. Even at a punt price, it’s hard to find a reason for the targets being so low and only being on the field 66.2% of the time.

D/ST – The Chiefs only have five turnovers, have only given up 10 sacks and score the second-most points per game. There’s no redeeming factor here for Carolina.

Cash – CMC

GPP – Moore, Anderson, Bridgewater

Chiefs – Pace is 17th

QB – Patrick Mahomes is the most expensive player on the slate and why shouldn’t he be, coming off a five touchdown game? Despite the Chiefs only being 19th in pass plays per game, Mahomes is fourth in fpDB at 0.59 and in touchdown passes at 16. He’s up to seventh in passing yards and RZ attempts, not to mention inside the top 12 in deep attempts. Carolina is only average in DVOA against the pass but unless it’s the most difficult matchup, Mahomes is at the stage where you can play him without a second thought. Carolina could be without rookie safety Jeremy Chin, which would be a big blow as well.

RB – I’d love to know what the actual plan here is for the Chiefs and the running backs, since both games with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell in the backfield have been blowouts. CEH has definitely out-snapped Bell so far at a 51.3% rate to 29.1%. The attempts are close with 14 to CEH and 12 to Bell while CEH has seven targets to three for Bell. I’m still leaning playing CEH this week since Carolina is so weak against the run. I’m not sure Bell should be over $5,000 and CEH is just barely over $6,000 himself. I’d rather take the snaps, targets and a slight edge in attempts for this matchup. Carolina has allowed the most receptions to backs, second-most receiving yards, the sixth-most yards and 10 total touchdowns. Using that production and seeing the 28th ranked DVOA against the run makes this a beautiful matchup.

WR – In the three weeks without Sammy Watkins, the receiver position has been a little tough to figure. Sure, Tyreek Hill is the same as ever with a 19.6% target share and being the only player with an air yards share over 20% at 32.2%. Even with Panthers corner Rasul Douglas back in the lineup, he ran a 4.59 40-yard dash. That won’t cut it against Cheetah.

The secondary options have been the roller coaster. Both Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman have had their games in the sun. Over the three week period, Robinson holds the snap edge at 73.2% to 50.5% over Hardman. The targets are dead even at 12 each, neither player has a RZ target but both players have one touchdown and Hardman has the edge at 153 yards to 136. However, Watkins is practicing in limited fashion. If Watkins is back, he’s the secondary receiver we want.

TE – Travis Kelce had a down week in Denver but came back with a vengeance last week. In this same three week period without Watkins, Kelce leads the team in targets at 22, RZ targets at four and receiving yards at 205. He and Hill both have three touchdowns as well and Kelce is the TE1 in PPR settings by almost 45 points. Much like Mahomes, Kelce is an option in all formats if you can afford him and is not really matchup sensitive at all.

D/ST – Kansas City has the second-highest pressure rate in football but so far has 17 sacks to show for it. Where they have shined is the turnover department as they are tied for first with 14. They also rank third in points allowed per game so the price is justified, but I do prefer one that is cheaper this week.

Cash – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, D/ST

GPP – CEH, Bell, secondary WR is TBD

Seahawks at Bills, O/U of 54.5 (Seahawks -3)

Seahawks – Pace is 21st

QB – If this was last year, this could be a scary matchup for Russell Wilson. Buffalo was a nasty defense last year but they rank 19th in DVOA against the pass this season. Russ has been in another stratosphere and ranks first in fpDB, points per game, passing touchdowns, true passer rating and eighth in passing yards. He’s under $8,000 and there’s no reason for him to be at such a price. There’s also no real reason to be the third quarterback in salary as well. This is being written on Tuesday so about the only reason I would back off of Wilson being a smash play in all formats is weather. Past that, Russ has among the highest ceilings on the slate and certainly at the position.

RB – We’re trending to see DeeJay Dallas again this week and it might be a very similar spot as it was last week. Carlos Hyde is already out for the week and Chris Carson has still not practiced this week after missing last. The good news is this week we don’t have Dallas on a late kickoff and we’ll know before the slate starts what the situation is. If it’s Dallas in the scenario of last week, he’s still too cheap. It’s a better matchup than last week as Buffalo is 22nd in DVOA against the run and 26th in rush yards allowed per game. Dallas was not efficient at all last week with just a 2.3 yards per carry, but he got 23 touches including five receptions. He also had a whopping eight RZ attempts. Dallas would be a cash lock pending who’s active.

*Update* Carson and Hyde are out and Dallas is just too easy to play in cash.

WR – Is ti weird to say it’s hard to peg the Seattle receivers? D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have traded monster games the past three weeks, with Metcalf holding a 2-1 advantage. So that makes it #LockettWeek, right? Well, maybe because it’s been a pain lately. What Metcalf has going for him is he’s just a freak physical specimen and I’m not sure there’s a corner that could actually stop him if he got 10 targets every single game. These two receivers are accounting for about 50% of the targets overall and Metcalf holds the air yards advantage at 41% to 30.6%. Lockett only has four more targets on the season and is two points ahead as the number one PPR receiver. Metcalf is third, so here hasn’t been a big separation overall.

Metcalf will have one of the tougher matchups he can and one I typically shy away from in Tre White. However, the Bills corner has seen his play slip a bit. He’s only been targeted 25 times but has allowed 18 receptions for a 141 passer rating and 2.40 pPT. Metcalf also has a massive height and weight advantage (shocking, I know) but White can run with him. Lockett is in the slot so he faces Taron Johnson, who has gotten smacked for a 1.80 pPT and a 107.3 passer rating. Lockett is the cash player for me this week but if folks just use White’s reputation, Metcalf can go nuclear under 10% again.

TE – No tight end has a target share over 10.6% in this offense and Greg Olsen only averages about 5.5 DK points per game. He’s coming off a goose egg performance but he is third in RZ targets and third in EZ targets. Olsen is a touchdown or bust player and you saw the floor last week, so he’s not someone I want to chase. Will Dissly played more snaps than Olsen last week, but only garnered one target.

D/ST – If the Seahawks were a little cheaper, I could maybe get on board. Jamal Adams is in line to return. Seattle also welcomes in Carlos Dunlap into the fold, but still. They do have 14 turnovers but only 12 sacks. Since they give up 27 points per game, you’re relying on some splash plays and I think we can find better options.

Cash – Russ, Lockett, potentially Dallas

GPP – Metcalf, D/ST

Bills – Pace is 23rd

QB – This has to be the bounce-back spot for Josh Allen. It’s been about a month since Allen has had a big game but the spot doesn’t get any better. Seattle ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass and dead last in pass yards allowed per game by almost 50 yards. No team allows more DK points per game to the position and even with some rough weeks lately, Allen is still ninth in fpDB. He’s also still sixth in points per game, fifth in passing yards and sixth in passing touchdowns. That says nothing of his four rushing scores and 227 rushing yards (sixth among quarterbacks). I’d play him in any format and he’s really a smash play.

RB – One of my regrets from last week was not playing more Zack Moss. Maybe he won’t take over the backfield in a huge way, but this past week represented the first week since returning from injury he played more snaps than Devin Singletary. Moss holds a 6-2 advantage on RZ carries the past three weeks while Singletary has a 8-4 advantage on targets. I’d rather play for the RZ chances, even though Allen has five himself in that same time frame. Seattle has been strong against the run at the sixth-best DVOA and ninth in yards allowed per game. If playing one, I’d side with Moss but generally the most profitable way to attack Seattle remains through the air.

WR – Hello Stefon Diggs. When we can play the WR6 in PPR formats against one of the worst pass defenses in football, you better believe I’m in. Diggs isn’t going to come cheap and he shouldn’t as he owns a 28.9% target share and a 36.9% share of the air yards so far for Buffalo. Quinton Dunbar shouldn’t pose much of an issue with a 1.90 pPT and a 106.5 passer rating.

*Update* Dunbar is out so Diggs might well be unstoppable.

Cole Beasley is the safe, cash style play although he does have some upside in certain spots. He has an 18.7% target share on the season and is tied for the most RZ targets on the team at seven. The GPP play outside of Diggs is John Brown. He was on the field for 81% of the snaps last week and should be fully healthy coming into this week. Despite only having 29 targets on the season, he still has over 24% of the air yards share in the Buffalo offense. A double stack with Diggs and Brown is well within play. We know the drill with the Seattle secondary.

TE – This position just hasn’t been utilized in the offense, with Dawson Knox having the highest target share at 7.6%. Considering he hasn’t played since Week 5 with Covid, that tells us what we need to know.

D/ST – There’s no factor to like since Buffalo is facing the highest-scoring offense in football. The 19 sacks and 10 turnovers are respectable, but they rank 23rd in overall DVOA and I don’t go against Russ.

Cash – Allen, Diggs, Beasley

GPP – Brown, Moss, Singletary

Broncos at Falcons, O/U of 50 (Falcons -4)

Broncos – Pace is 11th

QB – There’s a lot of players that are expensive that are going to catch our eye this week and one route to get to them – Drew Lock. Atlanta has shown some life since Dan Quinn has been fired but still rank 29th in DVOA against the pass this year. No team has allowed more touchdown passes so far and only Seattle allows more passing yards per game. Lock is still on the wrong end of a 4:5 TD:INT ratio on the season but he is coming off his best outing, 20.8 DK against the Chargers. Most of his stats aren’t going to look good because he hasn’t played well for basically the entire year when he’s been on the field. The fpDB ranks 32nd and the points per game is 34th. This is strictly a salary-saver in a glorious matchup that could match a game script like last week. I’d prefer not to go this low for cash as things stand although the pace of this game is enticing.

*Update* I’m coming around on Lock in cash. Atlanta will be without Takk McKinley and Dante Fowler, two of their most important pass rushers. That’s a big blow to the Falcons defense.

RB – Even if it wasn’t a near even split of the snaps for Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay, this matchup is quietly poor on the ground. The Falcons are inside the top 10 in DVOA against the run and that tracks with them giving up the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game. They are a monster pass funnel defense, so neither back is going to be specifically appealing. Where Atlanta gets ripped up is by receiving backs, as they have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards and the second-most receptions. Gordon has seen 26 targets this season while Lindsay is just at four through four games (partial games as well) so I don’t think either is a must play. Just like the Seahawks, the way to attack Atlanta is the passing game.

WR – This is where I’m most interested. I’m hopeful that Tim Patrick can make it back and be healthy here, because he’s been the number one since Courtland Sutton has been injured. Patrick still has the air yards advantage over Jerry Jeudy at 31.7% with a 17.9% target share. Before the Kansas City game where he got hurt, Patrick had three straight games with a touchdown or 100 yards receiving. This would be a great time to start a new streak but we’ll see if he can play.

That’s not to say I don’t want to play Jeudy as well. He leads the team in raw targets since the Sutton injury. Even though we’re still waiting on a true breakout game, last week he did produce a career-high 73 receiving yards. It shapes up to be a rookie showdown as corner A.J. Terrell waits on the other side. Terrell has allowed a 2.4 pPT and a 128 passer rating. Jeudy is also second on the team in EZ targets and receiving yards over that time span despite some very iffy quarterback play. K.J. Hamler is a speed demon, but only has a 7.8% target share so far so tread carefully there.

TE – Noah Fant is in the early running as my cash game tight end since he’s under $5,000 and really shouldn’t be. He owns the target share lead since Sutton was lost and has played one fewer game than Jeudy, so that tells us how involved he’s been in the offense. Fant has been held scoreless and under 170 yards, but this past week we started to see him come around with a 7/47/0 line. That’s not spectacular but if he’s starting to get healthier it could be just the start. Fant runs a route over 71% of the time and the Falcons have allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends at eight, along with the most receptions and second-most yards.

D/ST – The Broncos do generate pressure over 25% of the time and have 20 sacks to go with eight turnovers. If this game were in Denver, I might be more interested. As it stands, I think they’re fine but not spectacular. Atlanta is only 14th in pressure rate allowed and have just seven giveaways.

Cash – Fant, Patrick (if active), Jeudy

GPP – Lock, D/ST, Lindsay, Gordon

Falcons – Pace is 6th

QB – Fantasy football can be quite tilting to analyze because on any given game, you can get weirdness that makes no sense. Case in point, Matt Ryan had a 13 yard rushing score last week. Matt. Ryan. He also did not throw a touchdown for the third time this year already. Ryan has been an absolute dart throw on production. In five of his eight games, he has zero or one touchdown pass. In the other three, he has scores of 27.9, 28.5 and 34.6 DK.

This would shape up to be a down game as the Broncos are 10th in DVOA against the pass and only allow 136 passing yards per game, 16th in the league. Ryan leads the league in passing yards but is only 23rd in fpDB at 0.43. He’s also just 17th in points per game and touchdowns, so it’s easy to pinpoint where the issues are. The Falcons are fifth in pass attempts per game so the volume is certainly there. It’s just a matter of finding the end zone and the Broncos have only allowed 11 passing scores so far.

RB – I’m not sure I’m exactly scared of Brian Hill taking a ton of work from Todd Gurley, but it was odd last game. Hill got 13 touches and closed in on 40% of the snaps. Gurley still had 18 attempts but was not targets in the passing game. The only facet that saved Gurley was the rushing touchdown. Denver is right abut average as far as rushing DVOA and allow under 100 rushing yards per game to the backs. I’d tend to believe Hill played so much because of the short week, but I’m not particularly happy to play either this week.

WR – Julio Jones has really been a monster since he’s come back from injury, with a 23/371/2 in those three games. His price has reflected that production but only slightly, as he’s only $500 more expensive than Week 6. He’s played two fewer games than Calvin Ridley but is only 73 behind the yardage lead on the team. He’s also only about 1.5% away from the target share lead. Ridley hasn’t practiced yet, but the team seems to believe that he will be ready for Sunday.

Not that it particularly matters for Julio but he’ll see a good chunk of Michael Ojemudia. He’s been targeted 46 times and has allowed 103.4 for a passer rating and a 1.70 pPT. That’s not really anything to be scared of, let alone with Julio. Let’s check back on Friday to see what Ridley’s situation is.

*Update* Ridley is still questionable so that will be monitored in Discord and on the live stream Sunday morning. The Broncos are definitely short corner A.J. Bouye, which helps whoever suits up for Atlanta.

TE – It’s been three straight weeks of double-digit DK points for Hayden Hurst but I don’t see that being the new normal exactly. The target rate is under 15% which isn’t terrible but he’s fourth in RZ share and EZ share. That hurts an awful lot when you’re on a team with two alpha receivers. Denver has only given up 11.5 DK points per game to the position and only two scores through seven games. This isn’t a priority play for me, unless maybe if Ridley were to be out.

D/ST – The Broncos are tied for the third-most turnovers on the season and Atlanta does have nine takeaways. This could be a reasonable buy-low chance if they really are playing a bit better without Quinn as coach. It’s certainly not a cash option.

Cash – Julio, possibly Ridley

GPP – Ryan, Hurst, D/ST, Gurley

Ravens at Colts, O/U of 48 (Ravens -1.5)

Ravens – Pace is 26th

QB – This could be a slow-paced slugfest, but if that happens we could see Lamar Jackson run a little more. It’s more than a little weird to see him over 400 rushing yards and second behind only Kyler Murray and yet he’s the QB14. The passing work has gone down by almost 20 yards per game from 2019 and the 14 total touchdowns through seven games is off his 2019 pace as well. He was close to three per game last year with 43 in 15 so it’s easy to see what some of the issues are.

Yet, with all of that said, Lamar is ninth in fpDB at 0.53 and 11th in points per game. Indy is fourth in DVOA against the pass but under $7,000 feels way too cheap for a player that has 100+ yard rushing upside at the position. He’s a spectacular GPP option this week but I would not likely spend on him in cash. The Colts have given up the second-fewest points to the position so far and still have more picks than touchdowns allowed.

RB – It does not appear that Mark Ingram is going to be active here so J.K. Dobbins is likely going to take center stage. When it comes down to Dobbins or Dallas, I would lean Dallas for cash for sure. However, Dobbins flashed in a big way last week in a tough matchup. This week is not different since the Colts are fourth in DVOA against the run. Baltimore’s run game is built differently and Dobbins has the ability to pay off for sure. He was over 60% of the snaps and had 16 touches last week. Racking up 16 DK with no touchdowns is impressive. You can play Gus Edwards for the same reasons here since he had 17 touches. Edwards had a 2-1 RZ attempt advantage but Jackson also had seven.

WR – Receiver Marquise Brown made his feelings known on Twitter about his role in the offense and he was not thrilled, to say the least. It’s hard to blame him that much considering he was targeted just twice this past week. For the season, he does have the team lead in target share at 23.8% and the air yards at 39.4%. However, he only has 379 receiving yards and two touchdowns. You could get the squeaky wheel game where he gets fed targets to keep him happy. He does shape up to see Rock Ya-Sin, the easier of the matchups against the Colts. Ya-Sin has allowed a 1.70 pPT and a 91.3 passer rating on 35 targets.

Willie Snead had a big game last week instead of Brown but I’d not treat that as a new normal. Snead’s target share is under 12% on the season and he’s barely averaging three targets per contest.

TE – It’s been a minute since Mark Andrews has had a big game but being under $5,000 is maybe a bit too cheap to not take a look at. On paper, the spot does not get worse. Indy has only allowed 6.7 DK points per game, 222 receiving yards on 25 receptions and zero touchdowns. Still, Andrews has double touchdown upside every single time he takes the field. He leads the team in RZ targets at seven and has six EZ targets to go with his 21.1% target rate. I don’t believe I’ll go here for cash with Fant sitting right there, but much like Jackson the GPP is immense, as is the double stack with Jackson.

D/ST – They’re in play every single game and this week is no different. They do have 24 sacks on the year and while the Colts only allow a 14.6% pressure rate, they don’t face a defense like this every week. Baltimore also has 12 turnovers and that’s always appealing.

Cash – Dobbins is the closes but no over Dallas, D/ST

GPP – Jackson, Brown, Andrews, Edwards

Colts – Pace is 27th

*Note* I’m writing this as if the Ravens will have full health on defense for this game. If they do not, it will be updated.

QB – Philip Rivers remains cheap and has been playing a little better the pas two games. He’s hit at least 22 DK in each game since he’s thrown three touchdowns in each but I’m cautious here. Baltimore ranks eighth in DVOA against the pass and has only given up 10 touchdown passes on the season. Rivers is only 23rd in fpDB but one facet he does have going for him – completion rate under pressure. He ranks sixth across the league at 50% and that’s a great tool to have against the Ravens defense.

The Colts are only 25th in pass attempts per game so if Rivers isn’t efficient it’s going to be tough for him. It’s also possible that Baltimore’s offense can score enough to get Indy out of their shell, but I’m not particularly going to bet on that. I’d rather play Lock at a cheaper price.

RB – Ugh, do I have to talk about this situation? I mean, only in Indy does Nyheim Hines see 16 snaps and turn that into eight touches for two touchdowns. Only in Indy does Jordan Wilkins go from not being in the game plan to playing over 50% of the snaps and 21 touches. My fears are Jonathan Taylor is still way too expensive to take a chance on and Indy doesn’t know who’s getting the work until they get into the game. On top of a highly volatile three man RBBC that we can’t predict, Baltimore is the number one unit in DVOA against the run. I’m not really getting involved in this mess and don’t see the same sort of upside. The Ravens are a polar opposite of the Lions run defense.

WR – This is not really a situation that I want to go after. T.Y Hilton is trending towards out and at least we would know he won’t put up points instead of waiting for them every Sunday and points not coming. Do we want any of Zach Pascal, Michael Pittman or Marcus Johnson against a Ravens team that allows the eighth-fewest DK points per game to receivers and the 10th fewest passing yards per game? Not particularly. No individual matchup stands out as is, though that could change and would be re-visited.

TE – Maybe Trey Burton reads the Game by Game, because I said he might never score a rushing TD again and sure enough that’s what he did this past week. That’s two straight games he’s found pay dirt, but take a step back. If not for that rushing score, Burton was under five DK points. So far, he’s been under the 3x mark for his current salary in every game but one. He is only three targets off the team lead in his active games, but there’s a lower floor than it may look right now.

D/ST – I can’t help but think Indy continues to play over their head. They have some good players but ranking third in overall DVOA, fifth in points allowed per game and racking up 12 turnovers already just seems weird when looking at that roster. They do have the eighth-highest pressure rate in football and that’s been a weak spot for Jackson, but I don’t love the price here.

Cash – None

GPP – Rivers, Burton, D/ST

Texans at Jaguars, O/U of 50.5 (Texans -6.5)

Texans – Pace is 9th

QB – If the three games before the bye week were any indication, Deshaun Watson has all the ceiling of the other quarterbacks priced around him. He hit at least 27 DK in all three games and seems to be pretty content with a new coaching staff. Now he gets to pick on the Jaguars again who he hung 29 DK on the last time he saw them. Jacksonville is dead last in DVOA against the pass and are 28th in passing yards allowed per game. Of the teams that have played only seven games, the Jags are tied for the third-most touchdown passes allowed.

Even through some issues this year, Watson is still seventh in fpDB, touchdown passes and points per game. He’s still inside the top 10 in passing yards and fourth in true passer rating. Don’t forget the stud Watson is because he was on a bye week.

RB – I swear every week, I almost kinda-sorta-maybe think abut playing David Johnson. Among backs that have played seven games, he ranks sixth in carries and has handled almost 67% of the team’s rushing attempts. He easily leads in RZ attempt at 13 and has three RZ targets as well. He’s not as big a part of the passing game as he used to be with just about three and a half targets per game, but this is a game the Texans should win handily. Getting nearly 20 touches at this price point is hard to find, especially against the 23rd ranked run DVOA. Jacksonville has coughed up seven scores total to the backs and Johnson fell just short of bonuses last game at 96 rushing yards.

WR – Will Fuller is staying in Houston but I wonder if he’s exactly thrilled at that. He does lead this team in air yards but an interesting shift has happened in the Texans passing game and it’s involved Brandon Cooks taking over the lead in targets. Since the coaching change, Cooks has 30 targets to 25 for Fuller and they are tied in RZ targets at four and EZ targets at two each. Cooks also has the yardage lead at 289 to 216 and that $1,300 is a big savings. Jacksonville had zero answers for Cooks the first time around as he posted an 8/161/1 line. When you have this bad of a pass defense, individual matchups are far less important.

TE – The Texans are under Covid rules but they estimated Jordan Akins was a full participant in practice. I want some exposure in GPP since he was out-snapping Darren Fells before the injury and Akins still has a 12.2% target share on the season. The Jags are the sixth-worst team against the position with over 16 DK points per game allowed. Akins had played at least 68% of the snaps when healthy and Fells put up a 13.7 DK game he first time around.

D/ST – The reason you play the Texans defense is really just because the Jaguars are starting a rookie quarterback this week. Nothing in their 16 sacks, four turnovers and allowing 30.1 points stands out on their own. In a normal circumstance, $3,100 would be egregious pricing.

Cash – Watson, Cooks, Fuller

GPP – Johnson, D/ST, Akins

Jaguars – Pace is 4th

QB – Welcome to the NFL, Jake Luton. He totaled 42 touchdown passes at Oregon State over the course of 23 games. Most scouts seemed to think that arm strength and lower-half mechanics would be his biggest issues in the NFL but Gardner Minshew was only 21st in intended air yards per attempts. Luton might be able to hide weaknesses for a game or two in Jay Gruden’s system. Houston is 23rd in DVOA against the pass but Luton is a sixth-round rookie. I’m not sure you need to even look here unless you play a ton of lineups with the range of outcomes so wide.

RB – This offense is really going to be GPP only for me because the quarterback play can tank everything around him. On paper, this is a dynamite spot for James Robinson. That was the case last time when Robinson disappointed with 11 DK points, his second-lowest score of the season. This is tough. Houston is ranked 27th in DVOA against the run and only the Cowboys have given up more rushing yards. Only the Packers and the Lions have given up more DK points per game to this juncture. There’s a lot of facets that say Robinson should smash. However, the price is quite high. There’s only two or three (pending CMC) backs more expensive than Robinson. He’s coming off 34 DK points before the bye and if Minshew was still there, maybe I’d be more interested. As it stands, I greatly prefer a back $100 cheaper and would try to find money for Dalvin Cook.

WR – I feel like DK is begging me to play D.J. Chark at just $5,200 but it could also blow up in my face spectacularly. Chark has fallen under 15 DK points in five of his six games so far and been in single digits in two of them. Only once did he go off, on the back of nine receptions and two touchdowns.Chark does get Bradley Roby who has been a bit up and down. The pPT is 2.00 but he’s allowed some massive games to good receivers. Chark isn’t quite at that level of those other receivers and has a rookie quarterback as well.

Part of the issue is Chark, Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault and Robinson all sit between a 19.4% target share (Chark) and 12.7% (Robinson). This offense spreads the ball out and doesn’t exactly hone in on jus one player. Shenault gets Vernon Hargreaves and that has been a boon for receivers so far. He’s allowed a 1.90 pPT and a huge 114.4 passer rating. Without knowing Luton’s tendencies, it’s hard to speculate going into this game which receiver has the most value.

*Update* Texans corner Bradley Roby is out, which bumps up Chark pretty nicely. If you’re stacking Texans, Chark becomes my preferred run back option now.

TE – It appears that Tyler Eifert should be back in the lineup this week, but that’s not overly important for DFS. His target share is barely over 10% and he’s yet to record a game over five DK points unless he scored a touchdown.

D/ST – There’s not particularly a redeeming factor for the Jaguars defense. Watson has been sacked the fourth-most times in the league but the Jaguars have only produced six sacks on the year and only have six interceptions.

Cash – None

GPP – Robinson, Shenault, Chark, Cole

Lions at Vikings, O/U is N/A yet

Lions – Pace is 10th

QB – I’ve not played Matthew Stafford much this year but he did back his way into a big day last week against a good defense. The Lions are up to 12th in pass attempts per game and Stafford has also crawled into the top 12 in yards and touchdowns. Additionally, he’s out of the 20’s in fpDB. Granted, he’s 19th but baby steps. The price isn’t unreasonable for Stafford bu he will be down his number one receiver in this game, which could be an issue.

Minnesota is 18th in DVOA against the pass which honestly could be a lot worse. The cornerbacks have been a disaster for them but they’re still relatively hanging strong. Now, they still have allowed the seventh-most passing yards and have only a 17:3 TD:INT ratio but I’d feel better about Stafford if Kenny Golladay was healthy.

*Update* Stafford is in the Covid protocol, but could still play if he continues to test negative. We’ll see what happens here.

RB – Since his breakout game, D’Andre Swift has seen his snaps go up all the way to 62%. That’s great until you look at the touches. Snaps are the first step but his touches have gone down in each game as well. He didn’t even hit double-digits last week with just nine total. At least Adrian Peterson only had six so it does seem like Swift is “taking over” this backfield. Now that doesn’t mean Swift is going to be a traditional workhorse but he’s not priced like one either. The Vikings are 19th in DVOA against the run and they allow over 100 yards on the ground to running backs. With Swift holding the edge in RZ attempts at 7-3 over the past three games, he’s still the back to play.

WR – If there was ever a time to play Marvin Jones, this pretty much has to be it. He was inefficient last week but still came down with two scores and has eight RZ targets to go with six EZ targets. Since the Minnesota defense just has been battered in their cornerback room, Jones has a great spot in the individual matchup. Kris Boyd doesn’t pose a threat by the numbers with a 2.5 pPT and a 71.4% completion rate allowed. If Stafford is in, Jones can be fired up with as much confidence as we’ve had this year.

Jones virtually never left the field last week while Marvin Hall and Danny Amendola played about 70% each. I wonder if folks chase Hall. He’s still super cheap but 73 of his 113 yards came on just one reception. It’s hard to really harp on him at that price, but I’d prefer to leave him in GPP. Amendola is at least on the board but the target share is under 14%. His matchup is spectacular against Jeff Gladney who has allowed over 480 yards and a 2.20 pPT. I tend to want shares of both in GPP because I could see either having a bigger game, but my focus would be on Jones.

TE – To go right along with Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson is among my cash tight end pool as of now. He’s been fairly consistent this season with a least 9.2 DK in every single game and he leads in RZ targets. The Lions have Hockenson running a route nearly 80% of the time and he’s seventh among tight ends in receptions and yards. With Golladay out for a good part of last week, Hockenson saw 10 targets. That was a season high and it could very well come close to replicating this week. The Vikings has allowed just two touchdowns to the position but the fourth-most yards.

D/ST – The Lions can’t stop the run, give up nearly 28 points per contest and only have 10 sacks. You’re banking on a bad game from Minnesota if you’re playing them.

Cash – Jones, Hockenson

GPP – Swift, Stafford, Hall, Amendola

Vikings – Pace is 20th

QB – The reason why I’m always lukewarm on Kirk Cousins was on full display last week and it was because he threw the ball a whopping 14 times. He’s actually solid in fpDB at 14th in the league but yet he’s 25th in points per game and Minnesota is 32nd in passing attempts per game. That’s a huge issue that nobody can really overcome for fantasy and he remains one of the more dangerous options. If the game script goes the way of the Vikings, Cousins will throw the ball under 20 times. Detroit is right at the mid-point in DVOA against the pass at 16th so if you play him, you’re hoping for a shootout.

RB – I whiffed on Dalvin Cook in Week 8. Flat out whiffed badly. Credit to Ghost and others on the staff that didn’t flinch when he got listed as questionable late in the week. This week is a new week and I’m all in. He came out of that game with four touchdowns and a clean bill of health. He has one of the best matchups we can ask for with the Lions 21st in DVOA against the run and the eighth-most rushing yards to the backs. That’s not even talking about the 12 total touchdowns and 345 receiving yards. As we sit on Tuesday night, Cook is one of the best plays on the slate and likely a building block for cash.

WR – When the quarterback throws 14 times, the receivers are not likely to have a very good day. Both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen felt the pain on Sunday as neither crossed six DK points. They were virtually identical yet again with three receptions, four targets and 27-26 yard advantage to Thielen. Jefferson will mostly square up with Amani Oruwariye and that should be advantage Jefferson. Oruwariye has allowed an 88.0 passer rating and a 1.60 pPT. Thielen should be able to pick on rookie Jeff Okudah. The rookie has had some solid games but is still at a 91.3 passer rating and a 68% catch rate. Provided Detroit has their starting quarterback to keep this game competitive, I favor Thielen against a rookie. If Detroit can’t start Stafford, I’ll likely pass on the air attack since Cousins could throw under 20 times again.

TE – I though Irv Smith was a solid punt last week since I figured the game script would favor him. That didn’t work out at all as he saw 79% of the snaps but only one target. I still prefer him to Kyle Rudolph but the floor is still low for both these players. The Vikings want to run firs, second and third. Then they have Jefferson and Thielen, so there’s not a lot of meat on this bone.

D/ST – Minnesota is cheap but there’s a reason for that. With only six turnovers forced and just 14 sacks, they haven’t done a whole lot this year to want to play them.

Cash – Cook

GPP – Thielen, Jefferson, Cousins

Giants at Washington, O/U of 42.5 (Washington -2.5)

Giants – Pace is 18th

QB – I said this in Discord, but in case you missed it here’s the best way I can sum up Daniel Jones – he’s just good enough to make a play or two and keep the Giants from taking a new (and potential franchise) quarterback in the draft. This was in full effect Monday night. He threw two picks to help get them behind the eight ball, made a gorgeous throw to get it within two points, and then ruined the two point conversion with a late read. Now he gets to face off against the Washington defense, who are actually quite good. They rank fourth in overall DVOA, third in DVOA against the pass and give up the lowest yardage per game through the air. I have no real interest in Jones on this slate.

RB – This backfield is a bit unsettled right now. Devonta Freeman practiced on Thursday in a limited fashion, which leaves the door open for Wayne Gallman to be the starter again. We were on Gallman on the showdown slate for Monday but this is quite a different slate. You don’t need his 13 touches with other options on the board and Washington is a stout run defense in some ways. They are 17th in rushing yards allowed per game but second in DVOA against the run. To the running backs, Washington is under 100 yards per game and have only allowed six scores. Be it Freeman or Gallman, I’m not terribly interested.

*Update* Gallman is going to be the lead back once again since Freeman has been ruled out. I do feel there are much better values on the board for the week, including Dallas and Jackson.

WR – In the two games since Sterling Shepard has gotten back, there’s really only been two receivers to play on this team. Golden Tate has totally disappeared with just five targets and even with two touchdowns, it’s very thin to play him. It’s been the Shepard and Darius Slayton show, as they have combined for 30 targets (18 for Shepard) and about 63% of the air yards. Shepard should pull Ronald Darby, who’s numbers would suggest that he’s played passable this year. He’s boom or bust with just a 54.3% catch rate but with a 19.4 yards per reception. I prefer playing Shepard because Slayton should see mostly Kendall Fuller who has only allowed 1.00 pPT and 129 yards allowed on 25 targets.

TE – Another player that has done well with Shepard back? Evan Engram. He’s accounted for 19 targets and while he hasn’t had a blowup game, back-to-back games of double-digit DK points is a pretty solid step. There’s definitely a chance that if Washington is shutting down the receivers that Engram could have another solid game and he is still quite cheap. Engram isn’t my favorite play on the board but he could be pretty sneaky. It’s been a slight issue for this defense with five scores given up and over 400 yards receiving so far.

D/ST – For all their issues, the Giants defense hasn’t been all that bad. They’re under 25 points given up per game and have 20 sacks, tied for sixth-most. Additionally, the 10 turnovers forced is a solid number. They’re cheap enough to be in consideration with Washington giving up pressure over 22% of the time.

Cash – None

GPP – Engram, D/ST, Shepard, Slayton

Washington – Pace is 13th

QB – The main question with Kyle Allen is if there’s a reason to play him over Drew Lock for $100 more. My answer is I simply don’t think so in GPP. Allen has had a better floor than Lock this year, scoring at least 16 DK points in both games he finished. Even the one he was knocked out of with injury, he put up almost 10 DK. Washington does sit 10th in pass attempts per game so the volume really isn’t that bad for Allen. There just hasn’t been much of a ceiling so far and the pass catching corps is not exactly the greatest. If we’re in this range, I prefer Lock and may even take a shot at Luton (doubtful though).

RB – Can we please let Antonio Gibson off the leash? He logged a career-high 20 carries against the Cowboys and gouged them for 128 yards on the ground and a touchdown. He still split snaps with J.D. McKissic almost equally, but this was the breakout game we had been waiting for. The matchup isn’t quite as good as the Cowboys game since the Giants are ninth in DVOA against the run. That lines up with only 680 yards on the ground given up to running backs through eight games. They have been extremely vulnerable through the air with the third-most yards given up and the seventh-most receptions. That not only leaves an avenue for Gibson, but McKissic is a punt option. He has a 14.2% target share and is third on the team in targets.

*Update* Tackle Geron Christian is out and anytime an offense loses a starting lineman, it hurts. Gibson is still on the board but I’m not totally enamored with him.

WR – We’ve talked about it before, but since Kyle Allen has taken over Terry McLaurin has seen just a monster share of the passing game. He’s still over 33.7% of the target share and 58.6% of the air yard share in this offense. The first game against the Giants, McLaurin saw 12 targets and had a 14.4 DK point day. We’ve talked all season about James Bradberry having a really great season so far and usually mostly avoid him. This is generally how I feel this week. It’s not because McLaurin isn’t talented and can’t get it done. This is mostly about the salary involved. There’s a plethora of options within $800 that I prefer simply due to the matchup. I’m not really interested in other Washington receivers with how this offense is running right now.

TE – If we look at the same time frame of Allen starting, Logan Thomas has been better off as well. The volume isn’t near what McLaurin has experienced as Thomas is tied for third in targets (McKissisc is second). However, Thomas has found the end zone twice and is over 100 yards receiving. He’s still under $4,000 and that doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. Thomas isn’t a volume machine and likely will need a score to hit 3x but he’s too cheap for how he’s been playing with Allen. New York has been solid against the position with just 10.9 DK points per game given up. Still, Thomas is in play for me as he’s running the third-most routes among tight ends.

D/ST – Washington is one of my primary defensive targets this week. Daniel Jones has 13 turnovers on his own and Washington has nine. They only allow 22.7 points per game, have 22 sacks, a top 10 pressure rate and a top five ranking overall in DVOA. They are significantly cheaper than another defense that has the best matchup on the board.

Cash – D/ST, Thomas, Allen

GPP – McLaurin, Gibson

Bears at Titans, O/U of 46.5 (Titans -6.5)

Bears – Pace is 16th

QB – I suppose that Nick Foles is on the board as a cheap QB option. I can’t say I would be super happy about playing him with just an 8:7 TD:INT ratio. Three of those touchdowns came in relief against Atlanta, so he only has one game with more than one or zero touchdown passes thus far. Tennessee is 24th in passing DVOA and have given up the fourth-most passing yards among teams that have played just seven games. Likewise, they are tied for second in touchdown passes allowed among seven game teams so the matchup is actually quite good. Still, Foles is 30th in fpDB and 27th in points per game. He’s not my favorite and I would still likely go Lock over Foles in GPP.

RB – It really seems David Montgomery is doing just about everything but finding the end zone. Since the start of Week 4, he has 95 total touches but he has just a single touchdown, which has kept his DK scores down low. He’s still a question mark as far as talent on the NFL level but the Titans are 17th against the run in DVOA. They’ve also given up 10 total touchdowns and have allowed 940 scrimmage yards through seven games. Monty is an uninspiring choice if you just look at box scores but he remains cheap and a little touchdown luck would put him in line for a massive game.

WR – We can discuss how good Foles is versus Mitchell Trubisky but one person who benefits has been Allen Robinson. He has 46 targets in five games since the switch, not counting what he did in the Atlanta game. Robinson does have two games of just 10 and 11 DK, but the other three have all been at least 19 DK points. With a 23% target share and a 29.1% air yards share, A-Rob seems cheap. Malcolm Butler waits on the other side but that shouldn’t worry us. He’s been targeted 53 times already and has allowed a 1.50 pPT.

What I’m not sure what to do with is Anthony Miller. He’s been an afterthought in the offense lately until his past week. He saw more snaps, perhaps because Javon Wims got himself kicked out of the game. Miller also saw 11 targets despite totaling 14 the previous four weeks. Darnell Mooney is still the air yards king at 32.9% with Foles and he finally had a big game last week with a touchdown and five receptions. I still feel like Mooney is the play because if you play a cheap Bears receiver, you want the ceiling outcome. Miller would likely square off with Desmond King, newly of the Titans and there could be some miscommunications with a new corner.

TE – Jimmy Graham falls sort of into the same tier that Logan Thomas does for me. He’s getting targets, but likely needs to find the paint to pay off completely. He has seen at least five targets in every game with Foles under center but has yet to exceed 12.3 DK points. Graham sits 12th in routes run for tight ends and does play about a third of his snaps in the slot, seventh among his position. The Titans are a middle of the road matchup as far as production given up with 13.4 DK points per game. He’s a fine play but I might actually prefer Thomas since the Bears have a better receiving corps overall.

D/ST – Chicago is a good defense, ranked sixth in overall DVOA and they have generated 17 sacks and nine turnovers. However, Tennessee has only allowed eight sacks on the year and only has four turnovers, second-fewest in the league. The Bears defense just doesn’t seem like a good upside spend on the road.

Cash – Monty, Robinson

GPP – Foles, Mooney, Miller, Graham

Titans – Pace is 2nd

QB – It’s really not a strong matchup for Ryan Tannehill and I don’t feel like he needs to be played. He is fifth in fpDB and 10th in fantasy points per game, which are both very solid marks for his salary involved. He is sort of living on the touchdowns, as he’s fifth with 17. That doesn’t exactly jive with sitting at 19th in passing yards but that’s sort of been the Tannehill experience. When he’s kept clean, he’s completing over 79% of his attempts and normally is a fine option. I’m not a huge fan this week but the path is the Bears stuffing the run game and making Tannehill throw. I just don’t expect that path against the fifth best DVOA against the pass.

RB – The Bears are a little bit of an odd bird as far as rushing defense goes. They are 16th in rushing yards given up per game at 120 yards but sixth in DVOA against the run. That means Derrick Henry could be in what is quietly a really good spot. He’s not a cash priority for me this week but the RB4 on the season is under $8,000. That’s not going to happen very often. He leads the league in rushing yards by over 100 although Dalvin Cook would be right there if they had the same amount of games. Henry is also tied for the second-most touchdowns and leads in carries, so there’s nothing wrong with playing Henry. I just wouldn’t do it in cash.

WR – A.J. Brown has played five game so far and in four of them, he’s recorded 100 yards or at least one touchdown. Only in the opening game of the year did he not hit one of these benchmarks, so he’s been fairly consistent. The price is fair since he has a 23.2% target share and a 28.6% air yards share in the offense. Brown should be looking at Jaylon Johnson who has been good so far. He’s only allowed a 49.2% catch rate and a 77.5 passer rating, so I’m not going to be heavy on Brown.

It seems weird but Corey Davis actually has a slight lead in target share over Brown by about 2%. He’s getting up there in price but he does deserve to be there. The air yards share is in the favor of Davis by about of 1% and they are tied with four EZ targets (Brown has a 7-3 lead in RZ targets). It doesn’t get easier for Davis as he faces Kyle Fuller. He’s only allowing a 1.40 pPT and a catch rate under 57%. If paying for one, I’d go with Brown.

TE – Jonnu Smith has been invisible through the last three weeks but perhaps we could have seen this coming. He’s only running a route 55.6% of the time, which is 26th in the NFL. The 15.4% target share isn’t bad at all, nor is the seven RZ targets and a team-leading five EZ targets. The flip side is that he will live on touchdowns and they haven’t been coming lately. The Bears have given up five touchdowns to the position and could be a bit more vulnerable to Smith scoring.

*Update* With Adam Humphries out, Smith might have a little bit better floor than we’ve seen lately.

D/ST – The Titans are really quite expensive for just totaling seven sacks so far this year. I’ll give them credit for the 12 turnovers but with a bottom 10 pressure rate, I can’t justify the spend here.

Cash – Brown is the closest

GPP – Henry, Davis, Smith, Tannehill

Raiders at Chargers, O/U 51.5 (Chargers -1)

Raiders – Pace is 25th

QB – Weather kept me away from Derek Carr last week but that’s not happening this week. Yes, the Chargers are 12th in DVOA against the pass but they are 21st in passing yards allowed per game. They also give up an average of two touchdowns per game with just four interceptions so far. Carr’s stats took a hit last week overall but that’s simply not fair to put weight into it with the weather. He’s 17th in fpDB and 20th in points per game, but four of his seven starts have exceeded 20 DK points. This spot should shootout, has a high total and I’m pretty sure Carr will be my cash option and part of stacks of this game.

RB – I doubt Josh Jacobs will touch the ball 31 times like he did last week but maybe he doesn’t need to in order to have a good game. His price is still very affordable for a player that sits second in carries and tied for 22nd in receptions (12th among backs with seven games played). The Chargers fall to 18th in DVOA against the run and 12th in rushing yards allowed per game. LA has been lucky so far to only give up five total scores to the position and if everyone focuses on the passing games, Jacobs is an excellent GPP target to leverage off that facet of the game.

*Update* Jacobs is questionable with an illness but does not seem in danger of missing the game as of now.

WR – All the Raiders wideouts are still under $5,000 since they were the victims of poor weather as well last week. Henry Ruggs remains my favorite for GPP. He’s played two fewer full games than anyone else but still has the most air yards on the team and the highest share. The target share is a bit discouraging overall at under 12% and he’s only seen one RZ and EZ target all year. So far, you know what he is. He’s a boom or bust player that likely makes or breaks the lineup. Ruggs has to deal with Michael Davis who has only allowed a 10.8 yards per reception and 1.40 pPT.

Deciding whether Nelson Agholor is a secondary receiver or a big part of the offense is important as well. He had a three week stretch where he scored at least 14 DK but two of those games he saw a combined six targets. I believe him to be more dangerous than he may look with a low floor. Also, he has Casey Hayward and that’s not something that I love. He’s allowing under a 47% completion rate and only a 1.50 pPT. Hunter Renfrow is in the running but has exactly one game over 12 DK so far. The ceiling is hard to find.

TE – I’ll be honest, I don’t love that Darren Waller saw his price rise after a 7.8 DK point game last week. I suppose I can’t argue too much because Waller still leads in target share at 27% and RZ target share at 31%. He’s the TE2 in PPR formats and that’s always been his best format. He runs the fifth most routes of any tight end and is on the field the third most at 92.4%. Waller owns the highest target share at his position and has the second-most receptions and third-most yards. The Chargers are bottom 10 against tight ends with 14.8 DK allowed and five touchdowns.

D/ST – The Raiders average one sack per game and have just four turnovers forced, tied for the least in the league. That doesn’t seem like a defense we should be too interested in.

Cash – Carr, Jacobs, Waller

GPP – Ruggs, Agholor

Chargers – Pace is 8th

QB – Justin Herbert continues to be an absolute fantasy stud in his young career and there’s very little reason to think that stops this week. Vegas is 27th in DVOA against the pass and 25th in passing yards per game. The Raiders have only given up 11 touchdown passes so far but that’s not a factor that worries me even a bit here. Herbert remains sixth in fpDB and fifth in points per game. Despite playing in just six games, he’s thrown 15 touchdowns already and is sixth in deep ball attempts. The 42.4% completion rate on those passes is just average but average is fine with the volume he’s throwing them at. The rookie is only four yards behind Matt Ryan per game for the league lead and he likely shouldn’t be under $7,000. If you spend up at QB in any format, Herbert is a very strong option and might well be my spend up choice in cash.

RB – I’m not here to tell you that the Chargers backfield is a barrel of fun, but I am here to tell you Justin Jackson looks like a strong play. He was off the injury report this past week and that seemed to make a big difference. He went from 10 touches and 38% of the snaps in Week 7 to 20 touches and 49% this past week. Anytime you can get a back with potential for 20 touches under $5,000, you had better pay attention. It’s a dynamite matchup on top of everything else. The Raiders are 31st in DVOA against the run and have given up over 1,000 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns. Given he has an 11.2% target share, he’s actually a stackable option with the passing game.

Joshua Kelley surprisingly fell to third in snaps behind Troymaine Pope, who is at least on the board in GPP. He’s RB-minimum and produced 14 DK points last week without a score. He had seven targets as well, and Herbert typically is throwing to the backs, Hunter Henry or Keenan Allen.

*Update* Pope is out, which should help the floor of both Kelley and especially Jackson.

WR – We’ve talked about every week but man, Allen has been a terror with Herbert. He’s rocking a 30.3% target share and a 31.0% share of the air yards since Week 2 and he barely played in one of those games. Allen leads in RZ and EZ targets in that time frame and he’s finally priced appropriately at $7,000. Allen is in the slot 43.7% of the time and that leaves him on LaMarcus Joyner. Advantage Allen, as Joyner has allowed an 80.9 passer rating and two touchdowns. While Joyner hasn’t played terribly by the stats, he’s not as good as Allen.

Mike Williams finally had a good game with Allen, the first time with Herbert as a starter. Williams is up to a 12.4% target share since Week two but that is getting better as of late. Nevin Lawson has allowed a 1.90 pPT so far but Williams remains a very boom or bust option. I likely would only use him in Herbert stacks with Allen.

TE – Williams having a good game did have a bit of a negative effect on Henry. He only saw four targets, tied for the lowest with Herbet. He caught all four and remains in the top eight in routes run for a tight end. One nitpick for Henry is the RZ and EZ targets. He only has two of each and the EZ targets are fourth among Chargers. We typically would like a bit of higher touchdown equity, but Henry is due a blowup game. He’s easily had the second-most targets with Herbert and he can’t keep having poor production. If you use Herbert and Allen, the second pick is likely Henry or Williams. Jackson would be a unique addition to a three man stack, but everyone is in play.

D/ST – With Carr not turning over the football and the Raiders only giving up 13 sacks, I can’t see a reason to play the Chargers here. That’s especially true with Joey Bosa out.

Cash – Herbert, Jackson, Allen

GPP – Williams, Henry

Dolphins at Cardinals, O/U of 49.5 (Cardinals -4)

Dolphins – Pace is 30th

QB – It was a bit of a tough game to get a read on Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins scored multiple defensive and special teams touchdowns so Tua only threw the ball 22 times. He…didn’t look spectacular, completing just 12 attempts for 93 yards. Arizona is 11h in DVOA against the pass so the matchup isn’t exactly great. Also, we have exactly 24 throws from Tua to go on here. It’s not to shortchange a play, but I’m not really on Tua this week. You can go down to Lock or up to Carr and you would feel much more comfortable. The only way you play Tua is if you’re playing a bunch of lineups and banking on a shootout.

RB – This situation turned into a nightmare pretty quickly. We know that Myles Gaskin is out with a knee injury. The preferred play looked like it was likely Matt Breida but he missed practice on Wednesday with a hammy injury. Assuming they are both out, Miami could be down to Jordan Howard. He was inactive last week, but he would have to hold some appeal if he’s one of the only backs that could go, similar to DeeJay Dallas last week. Let’s revisit this when we have some more clarity.

*Update* Breida is out and I like all the other value backs far better than messing with Howard or even Patrick Laird.

WR – Trading Isaiah Ford to New England might seem like a nothing-burger but he did have a role in this offense. His target share of 13.3% and the air yards of 14% isn’t that small. In the small sample with Tua, Preston Williams held an advantage over DeVante Parker of 5-2 in targets. Parker looks to draw Dre Kirkpatrick, who is a corner to pick on in this defense. He’s allowed a 71.1% completion rate and a 92.5 passer rating. By the numbers, Patrick Peterson has seen his best days. He’s giving up a 2.10 pPT and a whopping 118.5 passer rating. Much like Tua, you’re playing these players if you suspect this game is a shoot-out. That’s not the worst path to take, since the Cardinals are ninth in points scored per game. They are cheap run back options at worst if you stack Cardinals.

*Update* Kirkpatrick is out for the Cards.

TE – I hate to say it, but I’m about to give up on Mike Gesicki this season. I don’t particularly get it. His target share is under 15% and what’s really hurting him is he’s not even on the field 60% of the time right now. His route rate is strong at 86%, seventh among the position. However, the total routes is 190 which is just 14th. Gesicki has eight RZ targets, inside the top 10 but he’s only scored twice. Arizona has only allowed two scores and 329 yards to the position, so Gesicki is not a priority for me.

D/ST – Miami has a pretty strong defense, overall. They only allow 18.6 points per game, they have 19 sacks to go with their 21.4% pressure rate and they have 12 turnovers. Even the total DVOA is inside the top 12, but I have no real interest playing them against the Cardinals.

Cash – None if Breida is out

GPP – Parker, Williams, Tua, Gesicki

Cardinals – Pace is 3rd

QB – I’m sort of out of adjectives to describe Kyler Murray. He has among the safest (if not the safest) floors in fantasy with the rushing yards. Murray has also accounted for 20 total touchdowns already, almost three per game. When I say he’s resembling 2019 Lamar Jackson, that’s not an exaggeration. Murray actually has even more passing yards than Jackson did, so the rushing yards don’t need to be quite as high. Miami is a strong passing defense with ranking third in DVOA against the pass but they are also 20th in passing yards allowed. The big facet that the Dolphins have going for them is an 8:7 TD:INT ratio allowed. Murray is a perfectly fine target, but I do prefer both Josh Allen and Russell Wilson just a bit.

RB – The top six running backs in salary is quite crowded this week. Chase Edmonds is among those players since Kenyan Drake is likely out. The Dolphins are dead last in DVOA against the run and has given up over 1,000 scrimmage yards with seven scores total. The bonus with Edmonds is we already know that he’s the passing back, so his path to paying off his (admittedly) steep price is there. When a back can put up 21.5 DK without a score like Edmonds did last game, you know the talent level is there and the offense really helps him as well. Also, this is quite the surprise – Edmonds leads the team in RZ targets (and is tied for third in targets overall). I believe that if a certain running back in the next game is chalk, Edmonds is a fantastic pivot off of him.

WR – I’m not sure there’s a matchup that scares me off DeAndre Hopkins in total, but we can’t pretend he doesn’t have his hands full this week. Byron Jones is the number one corner in pPT at 0.90 and that’s through 36 times he’s been thrown at. He’s yet to allow a touchdown, the completion rate is under 42% and the passer rating is 55.4. Among players that have seven games, only Keenan Allen has more targets than Nuk and that’s just by two. Hopkins is over 30% in target and air yards share, and leads the league in receiving yards. If he’s not popular, he’s a great GPP option.

Christian Kirk doesn’t have a much easier spot. Xavien Howard has only allowed a 54.0 passer rating and a 51% catch rate so the price might be a little too high for my taste. The place to attack the Dolphins is in the slot but Larry Fitzgerald is not a good fantasy option anymore. He’s 34th in receptions and 85th in points per game, so I’m not exactly going after that either. I think the options are play Murray alone or stack with Nuk and hope that combo is low on the pecking order for everyone else.

TE – No tight end for the Cards has a target share above the 6.4% for Dan Arnold, so we can skip this spot.

D/ST – If you don’t care for the Washington defense or simply can’t afford them, Arizona is not the worst fall-back option. We’re looking at an offense that is starting a rookie QB in his second start and is missing their staring running back. The Cards are 10th in overall DVOA, have 10 turnovers and 19 sacks even with the loss of Chandler Jones.

Cash – Murray, Edmonds

GPP – Hopkins, D/ST

Steelers at Cowboys, O/U 41.5 (Steelers -14)

Steelers – Pace is 31st

QB – Here’s the deal with this game – it’s not likely to be competitive. Dallas is on their fourth quarterback of the season already. It’s a mismatch almost all the way across the board. Ben Roethlisberger is a great GPP option, but I won’t be playing him in cash. Why? Well, there’s a solid chance he doesn’t throw the ball that much in this game. Look at the game they blew the doors off Cleveland. Big Ben only threw it 22 times and the Steelers just ran it and got out with a win. That’s entirely within the realm of possibility here.

IF he does throw a bunch, he’s likely to have his first explosion game of the season. Dallas has climbed to 15th in DVOA against the pass but they have still allowed 17 touchdown passes, tied for third-most in football. They only rank the eighth-fewest yards per game but they’ve also only faced the 11th fewest pass attempts. It makes sense since the winning team typically runs late, and that’s the only snag when talking about Big Ben here.

RB – If (and it’s a large if right now) I can fit everyone, my plan for cash is to play CMC, Cook and James Conner. After Week 1, Conner has not dipped below 18 touches in any game. His low-water mark is 14 DK points, he’s the RB12 in PPR settings and the matchup simply does not get much better. Dallas is 29th in DVOA against the run, allow the most rushing yards per game and they are the only team that has allowed over 1,100 rushing yards to running backs. This is beyond a smash spot for Conner and if he gets 18 touches here, I will be shocked if he’s not around 20 DK points. I tend to still prefer him over Edmonds in any format, but let’s check ownership closer to kickoff.

WR – The Steelers receivers should have a field day in this one if they are allowed. Maybe I’m a sucker, but I can’t stop going back to Diontae Johnson. Yes, he’s been a wild ride so far but other than injuries, he’s had one bad game and that came against the Ravens. Despite missing what amounts to three games, Johnson is only six targets off the team lead and is tied for the air yards share. Don’t get things twisted – if Johnson is healthy, he is the one in this offense. Cowboys corner Trevon Diggs has allowed five touchdowns and 15.2 yards per reception.

I’m not 100% sure what to do after that. JuJu Smith-Schuster has come on a bit the past two games with 22 total targets and at least 13.7 DK points. He does have the target lead and runs in the slot about 80% of the time. Chase Claypool has the higher ceiling and big play ability that JuJu hasn’t had a lot of this season. Mapletron hasn’t been under 65% of the snaps since Week 1 and gets a mouth-watering matchup with Anthony Brown. Claypool has about five inches and 40 pounds on Brown and the highest aDOT on the team at 12.3. I rank these options in the reverse of their salary – Johnson, Claypool and then JuJu.

TE – Any offensive player is on the board against the Cowboys and Eric Ebron is no exception. Since Week 2, he’s been more involved in the offense with no fewer than four targets in every game. He’s not running a ton of routes at just 77.3% and is not exactly dominating with his targets. Dallas has allowed four touchdowns and 362 yards to the position, but I prefer to go with the receivers in this spot.

D/ST – There is no question in my mind that the Steelers defense is going to dominate this game. They are an elite unit in real life and fantasy, and they are not pleased about how they played last week. They’re angry and facing a fourth-stringer at quarterback. However, they are also the most expensive defense in DK history. I just can’t get on board with that very much. Johnson has 20 point upside much more in his range of outcomes for $100 more. If I build a lineup that I love and have $4,900 left, great. Past that, I’m not jamming Pittsburgh in.

Cash – Conner, Johnson

GPP – Claypool, Big Ben, JuJu, D/ST

Cowboys – Pace is 1st

QB – We pride ourselves on going over every play, but there is a 0% chance I’m even looking twice at Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush. Lock is $400 more and Luton is $100 more. There’s no point to getting cute with Dallas quarterbacks when we have viable options in better spots. Pittsburgh ranks second in DVOA overall and sixth in DVOA against the pass.

RB – I never thought I’d see the day that Ezekiel Elliot was $6,600 on DK and I had virtually no interest. Regardless of it’s offensive line, lack of QB play, getting paid and maybe not caring as much anymore in a lots season…Zeke just doesn’t look up to snuff. He’s averaging 65 yards on the ground and the Steelers are angry how they played the run last week. It’s been a point of emphasis all week. Zeke will get his touches as he did last week, when he had 20. The quarterback play doomed him as he only totaled 73 yards with no scores. I feel like the same style of game is on tap and can’t see much of a reason other than “it’s the NFL” to play Zeke ahead of Edmonds.

*Update* Zeke is fighting a hamstring injury, so now I’m really off of him.

WR – This receiving corps went from “I want to play all of them” to “I don’t care about any of them” with frightening speed. With a new quarterback again, it’s hard to know who he focuses on. Michael Gallup was the man last week with 12 targets, though he only turned those into 13.1 DK points. Amari Cooper had all of one catch and CeeDee Lamb went four for 27. I mean, this is uninspiring to say the least. Cooper likely sees Joe Haden who has had some bad moments but is still at just a 1.30 pPT and a 50% catch rate allowed. As it stands, Lamb would face Cameron Sutton and in limited snaps, he’s allowing a 1.70 pPT and over a 63% catch rate. Lamb is my favorite here but that’s faint praise.

TE – Dalton Schultz could wind up being a type of security blanket and he does have 12 total targets the past two weeks. He’s been able to maintain a 14.1% target share and five RZ targets, even though that might not matter in this game. I don’t mind him per se, but he’s not going to be a target. This Dallas offense certainly won’t attract a lot of attention, but they really shouldn’t with a fourth or fifth string QB.

D/ST – Nope.

Cash – None

GPP – Lamb, Zeke, Schultz, Cooper

Core Four

Dalvin Cook, Chase Edmonds, Marvin Jones, Justin Jackson

SUNDAY UPDATE

We’ve had plenty of news break the past 36 hours. Firstly, Seattle looks like they’re going to use RB Alex Collins today and with three backs active, that’s enough to get me off DeeJay Dallas. Replacing him is Jackson, who was basically the first man out of the core as it was.

Secondly, we could have other big news for the Chargers. Keenan Allen has to clear Covid protocol today at minimum to play. If we get news that he is out before 1 PM kickoff, Mike Williams replaces Marvin Jones as a Core Play. Williams has shown his upside without Allen once already and is one of the best values of the entire slate if Allen is out. I have no problems at all playing Jackson and Williams together in cash even without Herbert.

Lastly, we’re trending towards Ezekiel Elliott being out today. That has some folks looking towards Tony Pollard at running back minimum price. I would be fine taking a shot or two in GPP, but Pollard is not a cash play for me. The offensive line is battered, Dallas is on they’re fifth-string QB…it’s ugly. Also, I can’t stress enough how much the Steelers have talked this week about stopping the run. They are furious after they got rocked last week on the ground. I will not have Pollard in any of my cash games.

Game Stacks

SEA/BUF – Russ, Lockett, Diggs, Metcalf, Brown, Dallas, Allen, Beasley

LV/LAC – Herbert, Allen, Jackson, Waller, Ruggs, Jacobs, Henry, Agholor, Carr

DEN/ATL – Lock, Fant, Jeudy, Julio, Ridley (if active), Patrick, Hurst, Ryan

Team Stacks

Chiefs – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, CEH – Run back with CMC, Anderson or Moore

Texans – Watson, Cooks, Fuller, Akins, DJ – Run back with Jacksonville receiver of choice

Vikings – Cook and Marvin Jones mini stack

Steelers – Roethlisberger, Johnson, Conner, Claypool, JuJu – Run back with Lamb or Schultz

Cardinals – Kyler, Edmonds, Nuk – Run back with Parker or Williams

Ravens – Jackson, Brown, Andrews – Run back with Burton or Pascal (gross)

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

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