NFL DFS Double Ups

Welcome back for the Week 16 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a loaded, 13-game slate with a ton of explosive games. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown (this week was another Podcast BYE week. Hoping to be back after the Holiday travel season).

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 17 (teams we want to try to get exposure to):
– San Francisco 49ers (31)
– Philadelphia Eagles (30)
– Buffalo Bills (27)
– Kansas City Chiefs (25.5)
– Baltimore Ravens (25)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

This is a loaded week in terms of the Quarterback player-pool. I am not going to be a fan of paying down at the position this week. I’ll format this article a little bit different as it is such a large slate with tons of studs/values.

The Studs:

• Jalen Hurts ($8,300 DK / $9,200 FD) – Second highest team total on the board against the second worst defense in the NFL. You don’t need me to explain the high floor / high ceiling combination that Hurts possesses in Week 17. He’s a full go for all NFL DFS formats.
  
• Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $8,800 FD) – Great matchup on paper against a weak New England defense, but we have severe blowout concerns here in addition to the expected pace of this game. On the bright-side, not many will pay-up for Josh Allen which makes in viable in GPP contests.
  
• Lamar Jackson ($7,700 DK / $7,900 FD) – Fantastic price on FanDuel for exposure to one of the highest total games on the slate. The injury to Jaylen Waddle hurts the back-and-forth nature of this game ever-so-slightly, but this is still one of the best games for fantasy fireworks.
  
• Patrick Mahomes ($7,500 DK / $8,000 FD) – A sub-5% owned Mahomes in a damn-near must-win game is always intriguing. The Bengals have given up over 265 passing yards per game over their last three and will have their hands full against a motivated Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead on Sunday. He’s a fine play in GPP tournaments.

Mid-Tier:

• C.J. Stroud ($7,100 DK / $7,800 FD) – The Texans will certainly have a warm welcome back to the NFL Rookie of the Year, C.J. Stroud. At this price, I’d prefer just finding the extra cash for a lower-owned Mahomes, but I’ll never fault you for playing Stroud at home against a pass-funnel defense.
  
• Brock Purdy ($7,000 DK / $8,500 FD) – The best matchup on the slate against a horrible Washington defense that is without two of their “top-corners”. I can’t imagine a scenario where Washington stays in this game and would limit my exposure to Purdy in cash games. He’s likely going to lead the DraftKings NFL DFS slate in ownership.

Value:

• Kyler Murray ($6,300 DK / $7,800 FD) – A pass-funnel defense in Philadelphia in what likely will be a very negative gamescript for the Arizona Cardinals. The pass-catchers are lacking outside of Trey McBride, but you play Kyler Murray for what he can do with his legs. GPP and cash viable at this price (DraftKings).

Honorable Mention: I don’t really want to consider playing a pay-down quarterback. Tyrod Taylor, Will Levis, and Jarrett Stidham will somehow draw ownership and I’m out on that.

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Kyren Williams. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Christian McCaffrey ($9,600 DK / $11,000 FD) – CMC about broke the AETY Model this week, lol. If you can afford him, he’s the best cash play on the slate. I worry about the blowout potential here, but I also have faith than Shanahan is going to do everything he can to get McCaffrey a MVP award this season.
  
• Kyren Williams ($8,300 DK / $9,400 FD) – Volume and matchup combination is second to only the man above him in this article.
  
• Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,200 DK / $8,600 FD) – The matchup against the Panthers for opposing running backs is something we touch on every single week. With C.J. Beathard getting the starting nod on Sunday, that will take all ownership away from Etienne. This offense will run through him with the occasional Engram and Ridley in the passing game when they need it. Etienne is in play for GPP lineups only.
  
• D’Andre Swift ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD) – Number one mismatch in the AETY Model for offensive line vs defensive line grades. If you can stomach the green-zone volatility, Swift is an excellent value in all formats in Week 17. We always look to play top-tier rushers as a double-digit home favorite… especially when no one wants to play them.
  
• Javonte Williams ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD) – The second highest mismatch on the AETY Model. I truly believe Javonte has lost a step (if not two) since the surgery, but he’s still going to bring us that 15+ touch volume we’re looking for.
  
• Kansas City Chiefs – Will monitor this situation as we learn more about Pacheco’s injury status and Edwards-Helaire’s health.
  
• Zamir White ($5,100 DK / $6,100 FD) – Free-square again this week with Josh Jacobs doubtful to play.

Honorable Mention: Rachaad White, Jonathan Taylor, Ezekiel Elliott (cash-viable at the ownership), Devin Singletary, Najee Harris, Chase Brown, Tyjae Spears

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This will be a list this week with more details on each matchup in Discord.

• AJ Brown ($8,600 DK / $8,500 FD) – All formats.
  
• Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,500 DK / $7,700 FD) – GPP only as this Raiders’ defense has really stepped up of late, but the volume and low-ownership combination in a must-win game should offer us a lot of leverage when the field pays down for values at the position.
  
• Nico Collins ($7,200 DK / $7,300 FD) – Cash game staple at the ownership we are seeing this week. I’m personally going to fade this whole situation with the slow pace Tennessee is likely going to play at. Noah Brown ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) is also in a nice spot, but I’d only touch that price on DraftKings.
  
• Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000 DK / $7,500 FD) – The worst secondary in the NFL who happens to play a ton of man coverage. We play Aiyuk against man coverage.
  
• Chris Olave ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD) – The same reason we’ve been playing WR1’s against the Bucs the past few weeks… Load up Olave in all formats if you can afford him. Carlton Davis will be out again this week which is another added boost.
  
• DJ Moore ($6,600 DK / $7,500 FD) – This week’s Amari Cooper in terms of mid-tier WR1s with zero ownership. I’m in for GPPs.
  
• DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000 DK / $6,700 FD) – Great price and matchup for a Houston secondary that again will be without Steven Nelson. They’re slowly becoming one of the best secondaries to pick on. Cash and GPP Viable.
  
• Zay Flowers ($5,600 DK / $6,300 FD) – Too cheap for this game environment.
  
• Demario Douglas ($4,300 DK / $6,100 FD) – Likely a cash-game staple at this price and ownership.
  
• Punt Values – Rondale Moore, Michael Wilson, Darius Slayton, Brandon Johnson, Mecole Hardman

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, DeVonta Smith, Rashee Rice, Chris Godwin, Jerry Jeudy

Tight-Ends

• Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD) – I haven’t played Kelce in months and he certainly looks like his good days are behind him, but at sub-10% ownership in a matchup against the Bengals (31st in DVOA vs. Opposing Tight-Ends), I’m going to go back to the well here. I am in on the Chiefs this week and will be starting those stacks with Kelce.
  
• Trey McBride ($5,900 DK / $6,800 FD) – Just keep playing him in these matchups and negative gamescripts. I do worry Trey is all the Cardinals’ have on the offensive side of things and they can scheme to slow him down, but the price is still worth it for the expected volume.
  
• Isaiah Likely ($4,600 DK / $6,000 FD) – The Dolphins can be beat on the inside of their zone-coverage and have struggled against talented tight-ends all season long. Likely is at a great price will draw no ownership for your GPP tournaments.
  
• Chig Okonkwo ($3,600 DK / $5,400 FD) – Chiggy will be the chalk pay-down option this weekend. Truthfully, I have zero interest and will pay up at the position, but if you want to ride the train in cash, he’s your guy.
  
• Gerald Everett ($3,500 DK / $5,300 FD) – The only healthy, proven pass-catcher for the Chargers in the number one matchup for tight-ends. The ceiling is extremely limited, but the AETY Model and player-prop market seem to think he’s a great value.
  
• Durham Smythe ($2,900 DK / $4,800 FD) – Absolute punt-play in GPPs only. I had a very hard time realistically simulating his involvement with no Jaylen Waddle against the coverage scheme for Baltimore and AETY spit out some good games and other games where he doesn’t draw a target. Good luck if you need to punt tight-end!

Honorable Mention: Dalton Kincaid, Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller, Dalton Schultz

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Jalen Hurts
• Zamir White
• Chig Okonkwo
• Nico Collins
• Chris Olave

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• Patrick Mahomes
• Travis Kelce
• D’Andre Swift
• Zay Flowers

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

Welcome back for the Week 14 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s another gross 10-game slate with mediocre totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown (this week was a Podcast BYE week).

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

*This is an absolutely loaded slate and one that offers multiple ways to get crazy different in tournaments.

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 14:
– San Francisco 49ers (30)
– Kansas City Chiefs (25)
– Baltimore Ravens (24)
– Buffalo Bills (23.75)
– Los Angeles Chargers (23.5)
– Detroit Lions (23.25)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. If you want to play them, you know who to stack them with and get after it.

• Josh Allen ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – The most expensive quarterback on the slate but the highest upside by a mile. This is do-or-die time for the Buffalo Bills and the AETY Model expects a heroic performance out of Josh Allen on Sunday. He’s the best play at the position for all formats. With such a loaded slate and pay-down values at QB drawing a lot of ownership, Josh Allen is likely going to come in around 5%…
  
  Stack Options: Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid
  Bring-Back Options: Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Isiah Pachecho
  
• Justin Fields ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD) – Great price for a dual-threat quarterback who has a rushing prop in the low 60s. The Lions’ defense is on tilt and Justin Fields is playing for his future. I don’t love this spot for him, but we cannot miss at the quarterback position this week and the rushing floor is enough to warrant a look in both cash and GPP NFL DFS lineups.
  
  Stack Options: DJ Moore
  Bring-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta
  
• Joshua Dobbs ($5,900 DK Only) – In what very well could be a low-key shootout, Joshua Dobbs checks in as the number-one value on the AETY Model for the quarterback position this week. If you trust the Raiders to stay in this game, Dobbs is a cheap, dual-threat quarterback with a condensed target share that makes it easy to stack. GPP lineups only!
  
  Stack Options: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson
  Bring-Back Options: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs
  
• Russell Wilson ($5,800 DK / $7,400 FD) – I’m personally not a Russ guy this week but it looks like he’ll be closer to 10% and in the top-tier of ownership at the quarterback position in Week 14. This is an excellent matchup for the Broncos’ offense and both teams are playing for their (limited) playoff hopes. Russ continues to do damage with his legs and offer us a floor that is safe enough for cash games.
  
  Stack Options: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy
  Bring-Back Options: Keenan Allen
  
• Jake Browning ($5,200 DK / $6,500 FD) – If you’re looking to pay all the way down, Jake Browning has some game and is in a fantastic matchup against the Colts’ defense. The game total continues to rise throughout the week and a healthy core of weapons for the Bengals doesn’t hurt the case.
  
  Stack Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon
  Bring-Back Options: Michael Pittman Jr., Zack Moss, Josh Downs

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert (love in GPP), Brock Purdy

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Alvin Kamara ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD) – Somehow there is now ownership going towards Alvin Kamara this week in the number one matchup for running backs… If you can afford him, fire him all the way up against the Panthers’ 32nd ranked run defense (DVOA). This is a home run spot if Taysom Hill is OUT.
  
• Isiah Pachecho ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – Pachecho is going to draw a ton of ownership due to his recent success and being a part of the Chiefs’ offense in a high-total game. In cash, I’m 100% okay with you riding it. In GPP lineups, I’ll likely pass on this ownership with the return of Jerick McKinnon who is likely to eat away at that invaluable target share Pachecho has had out of the backfield lately.
  
• Bijan Robinson ($6,500 DK / $7,100 FD) – Fantastic prices on both outlets for Bijan Robinson (projected 10-15% ownership) in another game where both teams are fighting for playoff hopes. Robinson is no longer splitting the workload evenly with Allgeier and gets a plus-matchup if Vita Vea misses this game for the Bucs. Bijan has an anticipated top-5 opportunity share this week (according to the AETY Model).
  
• Joe Mixon ($6,100 DK / $7,200 FD) – Mixon’s fantasy value comes solely from the passing-game work and red-zone equity now that Chase Brown is getting more snaps on a weekly basis. On DraftKings, the passing game work offers us an excellent floor for cash game lineups in what should be a surprisingly back-and-forth affair versus the Colts’ sieve of a defense.
  
• Zack Moss ($5,900 DK / $6,800 FD) – AETY Model number-one value at running back who is still too cheap for the expected usage and plus-matchup against the Bengals 29th ranked run defense (DVOA). Cash game lock and I’m fine if you eat the chalk in GPP tournaments if the salary relief helps you build a better lineup.
  
• Javonte Williams ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD) – If you’re looking for another cheap running back workload in a great matchup, Javonte Williams is your guy. I’m seeing ownership projections on Williams closer to 15% but I’ll take the under there. Javonte is best left for GPP lineups as a salary relief back or pivot off of Zack Moss chalk.
  
• Keaton Mitchell ($4,900 DK / $5,900 FD) – Rookie running backs after the BYE week… Let’s go Keaton! We know he’s extremely explosive and the sportsbooks finally flipped the rushing yard props for this Baltimore backfield in favor of Mitchell. Having said that, we likely will not see any goal-line work as that will go to Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson. If you roll the dice with Mitchell, you’re praying for the big play, which Mitchell has shown the ability to provide on a weekly basis.
  
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,200 DK / $5,500 FD) – Free-square type of play in cash games but I do not love this at all for GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Rachaad White, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

• Ja’Maar Chase ($7,600 DK / $7,900 FD) – I’ve seen enough from Browning to trust his ability to feed Ja’Maar Chase the football and Chase will be the lead dog for my wide receiver column this week as we continue to pick on this exterior coverage for the Indianapolis Colts. Chase is going to be in that 5-8% ownership range and provides us an extremely high floor/ceiling combination that we’re looking for in GPP tournaments.
  
• Davante Adams ($7,500 DK / $7,400 FD) – Extremely sexy price on FanDuel but also in-play on DraftKings. Like Chase, the backup quarterback situation will distract the field from the positive matchup the opposition brings to the table. If this game has any pace, Davante Adams could be the WR1 on this slate. NFL DFS GPP lineups only.
  
• Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD) – The ceiling is nowhere near the two above, but the floor is. Michael Pittman Jr. is having a monster season in terms of volume and is an excellent choice for a cash-game lineup. The only issue here is you’re likely starting your build with Zack Moss in cash games and we do not want to get a ton of exposure to the Colts’ offense in a cash game setting.
  
• Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900 DK / $7,700 FD) – GPP only, but a nice price for a home-run hitter on the highest implied team total this week. I’m fine if you want to continue to ride the hot-hand of Deebo Samuel, but the AETY Model thinks this is a statement game for Mr. Aiyuk on the outside.
  
• Gabe Davis ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD) – If you cannot afford Stefon Diggs, the AETY Model loves this low-ownership spot for Cover-2 killer, Gabe Davis. The Chiefs’ pass-defense plays a ton of Cover-2 (second highest rate behind Atlanta) and we all know the Gabe Davis breakout game in the playoffs a few years ago. GPP Only.
  
• Rashee Rice ($5,400 DK / $6,300 FD) – Rashee Rice is clearly Mahomes’ top-option in the passing game and continues to grow his snap share and target share on a weekly basis. The usage is too high for the price in one of the sexiest games on the slate. Rice is going to be popular and makes a ton of sense in cash if you’re not playing Pacheco. In tournaments, you can definitely use him as salary relief or as a part of a game-stack.
  
• Jerry Jeudy ($4,700 DK / $5,800 FD) – 1-5% owned type of pivot play if all of the mid-tier ownership goes towards London/Moore/Smith-Njigba. I love this matchup on the inside against nickel-corner, Essang Bassey. If the Chargers’ offense can get back on track, this should push Russ and the Broncos into a pass-happy gamescript and a breakout game for Jerry Jeudy.
  
• Drake London ($4,600 DK / $6,400 FD) – On DraftKings specifically, this is an excellent spot to continue to attack with Jamel Dean likely out again this week. We put the hammer kid bet on Jonathan Mingo last week in this exact same matchup. London is too cheap and viable for all lineups this weekend.
  
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100 DK / $5,500 FD) – Punt-play for a negative gamescript against the red-hot 49ers’ offense. The inside is where I prefer to attack the 49ers but it is not a spot I love by any means. This is purely a price play for the AETY Model’s top value at the wide receiver position.

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Josh Downs, Jameson Williams

Tight-Ends

• TJ Hockenson ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD) – I love this spot for Hockenson now that Justin Jefferson is going to suit-up. The whole field is looking to pay-down at tight-end and we can get a lot of leverage on them by simply paying up at the tight-end position. This is an excellent matchup for Hockenson and the great rapport with a QB who loves throwing to the tight-end.
  
• David Njoku ($4,100 DK / $5,500 FD) – Too cheap for a receiving core that will be without Amari Cooper. If you aren’t paying up, but do not want to purely punt the position, Njoku is your guy in any format.
  
• Kyle Pitts ($3,700 DK / $5,300 FD) – I know it’s gross, but this is a great price for a big-bodied slot receiver in a plus-matchup. This is a game the Falcons need to win and they will not hold back the usage for Kyle Pitts. The issue here is Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder… but that is priced into the situation.
  
• Isaiah Likely ($3,500 DK / $5,200 FD) – Keep an eye on the weather here, but Likely is going to lead the charge in tight-end ownership and is a perfect free-square for your cash game lineups (on DraftKings). On FanDuel, I prefer Njoku for just $300 more.

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Dalton Kincaid, Gerald Everett, Michael Mayer

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Jake Browning
• Zack Moss
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire
• Drake London
• Rashee Rice

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• Josh Allen
• Stefon Diggs
• Bijan Robinson
• Rashee Rice

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

Welcome back for the Week 13 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s another gross 10-game slate with mediocre totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 13:
– Miami Dolphins (30)
– Detroit Lions (25.5)
– Houston Texans (25.5)
– San Francisco 49ers (25)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. If you want to play them, you know who to stack them with and get after it.

• Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD) – Pricey, but the best fantasy quarterback on the slate in a high-total shootout in the 5-10% ownership tier.
  
  Stack Options: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith
  Bring-Back Options: Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel
  
• Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD) – Best matchup on the slate with an offense that appears to be damn-near 100% healthy. I do have concerns that Washington can’t stay in the game but this is a rather gross slate and when we’re competing with players like Jalen Hurts, we need to find someone with similar upside if we fade him. The AETY Model thinks Tua is a can’t miss plug-and-play this week. The condensed target share makes the stack-factor too easy.
  
  Stack Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
  Bring-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Curtis Samuel
  
• Russell Wilson ($5,700 / $7,400 FD) – What a time to be alive… Russ Wilson chalk week! You all know my love for playing a 1-3% owned Russ, but this week, the whole world wants to use the value (on DraftKings) with Russell Wilson in an up-tempo matchup against the Texans. On FanDuel, I’ll be a hard pass, but on DraftKings, it’s hard to ignore the matchup through the air and the added points we get from Wilson’s rushing ability.
  
  Stack Options: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Marvin Mims
  Bring-Back Options: Nico Collins, Tank Dell

Honorable Mention: Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Rachaad White ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) – The number one matchup for opposing running backs that we see succeed (in the fantasy game) week after week. Carolina ranks dead last in run defense DVOA and Rachaad White grades 9th overall for the AETY Model’s Expected Opportunities per Game. I prefer him in cash game setups at the high ownership we’re going to see, but you can also use him in tournaments and get different elsewhere.
  
• Bijan Robinson ($6,700 DK / $8,100 FD) – Another week we’ll see Bijan around the 5% ownership mark. Art Smith woke up and realized this guy needs 18+ touches a game and he’ll dominate. The Jets’ run defense has been bleeding production on the ground on a weekly basis over the past month.
  
• Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – Extremely good value here for the Patriots’ only weapon on the offensive side of the ball. The Chargers’ defense is banged up and comes into this matchup ranked 4th to last in run defense DVOA. Stevenson grades SECOND in the Expected Opportunities per Game for the AETY Model and has a higher probability to score a touchdown than the chalk, Rachaad White.
  
• Jaylen Warren ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD) & Najee Harris ($5,200 DK / $7,200 FD) – Great matchup, great prices. It’s tough to choose which one to use (if any), but the prop market would say lean Warren, although I love the advanced metrics we’re getting out of Najee Harris and the likelihood he gets the goal-line work. GPP lineups only.
  
• Zack Moss ($4,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – Free square.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert, Alvin Kamara, Jerome Ford

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

• Tyreek Hill ($9,600 DK / $10,000 FD)
  
• Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300 DK / $8,500 FD) – One of the best matchups in the AETY Model working on the inside against New Orleans’ Alontae Taylor. While everyone is going to jam in Tyreek, I don’t mind the idea of working a bit lower towards a 5-8% owned, St. Brown with a high-total game in New Orleans. *This doesn’t mean I’m telling you to fade Tyreek Hill in the best matchup all year.
  
• Jaylen Waddle ($7,600 DK / $7,800 FD) – Excellent price for the forgotten weapon for the Miami Dolphins. If you can’t afford Tyreek Hill in your Tua stack’s, I have no issues with you rocking Jaylen Waddle. Like Tyreek Hill, Waddle should absolutely destroy the heavy man-coverage rate that Washington is likely to bring on Sunday.
  
• Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) & Deebo Samuel ($6,200 DK / $7,300 FD) – The Eagles bleed production to opposing pass-catchers and do two things often… Blitz and play man-coverage. Aiyuk is an absolute beast against man-coverage and Deebo feasts against heavy blitz rates. Both of these dudes will be sub 8% owned and offer us a nice piece of that afternoon shootout.
  
• Courtland Sutton ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) – Too cheap for a shootout type of gamescript. Sutton and Wilson have had great chemistry all year long and Sutton supports a greater than 40% end-zone target share.
  
• Diontae Johnson ($5,000 DK / $6,800 FD) & George Pickens ($4,800 DK / $6,600 FD) – A bit pricey on FanDuel, but if you’re not interested in flipping the coin on the Steelers’ running game, give these outside receivers a serious look against the Arizona Cardinals’ secondary. They rank second-to-last in pass defense DVOA and both Pickens and Johnson are a serious mismatch for the Cardinals’ personnel.
  
  Out on this game due to weather. Fine with the running backs if needed.
  
• Jonathan Mingo ($3,300 DK / $5,400 FD) – It’s gross, but Mingo is the #1 WR value in the AETY Model. In terms of the matchup, the Bucs’ have been getting crushed through the air by all opponents and will again be without LaVonte David, Jamel Dean, and Devin White. Also, both Tommy Tremble and Hayden Hurst are out for the Panthers. This dude has been getting a ton of targets on a regular basis and now will have the opportunity for even more with a depleted pass-catching core and a pass-funnel defense in Tampa Bay.

Honorable Mention: A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr., Tank Dell, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Jerry Jeudy, Josh Downs

Tight-Ends

• George Kittle ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD) – A little pricey for the spotty production but Philadelphia grades dead-last in DVOA against opposing tight-ends. Although I prefer Deebo Samuel in this spot, Kittle is the clear-cut TE1 on this slate and makes for an excellent play across the board as everyone is punting down at the position.
  
• Juwan Johnson ($3,400 DK / $4,900 FD) – Great value for one of the only proven pass-catchers on this Saints’ Week 13 offense.
  
• Cade Otton ($3,200 DK / $5,100 FD) – It sounds like Chris Godwin is truly questionable so we’ll give a decent boost in expected production to Cade Otton if that ends up being the case. The Panthers have struggled against opposing tight-ends and although it’s never anything sexy, Otton doesn’t leave the field.
  
• Brevin Jordan ($2,500 DK / $4,300 FD) – Stone cold minimum on DraftKings in a great matchup against Denver. I wouldn’t expect much, but his player props are right there with guys like Otton and Gerald Everett.

Honorable Mention: Logan Thomas, Sam LaPorta, Pat Freiermuth

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Russel Wilson
• Zack Moss
• Tyreek Hill
• Rachaad White
• Brevin Jordan

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• Russell Wilson
• Alvin Kamara
• Zack Moss
• Deebo Samuel

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

Welcome back for the Week 10 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s another gross 10-game slate with mediocre totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 10:
– Dallas Cowboys (28.5)
– Cincinnatti Bengals (26.75)
– Seattle Seahawks (25)
– Detroit Lions (25.75)
– San Francisco 49ers (24.25)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. If you want to play them, you know who to stack them with and get after it. Both are in play for cash game and GPP tournaments. This week, the safest floor is Joe Burrow ($6,800 DK / $8,200 FD) and likely a staple for the field in cash game contests.

• Jared Goff ($6,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – A little too pricey for me on FanDuel but an excellent value on DraftKings. Goff is leading the pack in terms of expected passing yards in the AETY Model (right there with Joe Burrow) and gets a cake matchup against the Chargers’ atrocious pass defense. In terms of ownership, it looks like he’ll be sub 5% owned and more of a GPP option, but I think he’s plenty safe for cash games. The downside here is the Lions’ love for running the football in the red-zone.
  
  Stack Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta
  Bring-Back Options: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler
  
• Geno Smith ($5,800 DK / $6,900 FD) – Great price and an even better matchup. I do have concerns that Washington can’t stay in the game and there is also some potential weather issues to keep an eye on. Having said that, Geno Smith is going to be extremely popular and offers our cash game builds a piece of one of the higher team totals on the slate. Washington is the second worst pass defense we have to pick-on in Week 10 NFL DFS.
  
  Stack Options: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  Bring-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas
  
• Baker Mayfield ($5,100 / $6,600 FD) – GPP lineups only. The AETY Model grades Baker Mayfield as the top quarterback value on this slate against a beat-up, pass-funnel Titans’ defense. The concern here (outside of it being Baker Mayfield) is the low-total of 39 points and the Titans’ extremely slow pace of play (which has gotten better under Will Levis). I don’t really see a path to either of these teams getting a lot of stops and we could see this one shoot well over the total… it could also suck.
  
  Stack Options: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cade Otton
  Bring-Back Options: DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry
  
• Taylor Heinicke ($5,100 DK Only) – GPP only, but I’m digging the stack-ability and value with Taylor Heinicke. The Arizona Cardinals’ defense is non-existent and paid dividends last week with our Watson/Cooper stacks. The bright-side here is that Atlanta’s defense is struggling and should allow Kyler Murray and the Cardinals’ plenty of opportunities to turn this into a shootout. The total continues to be on the rise at sportsbooks and thats a trend a love to see. It appears the Arizona Cardinals are going to be the highest owned defense and we can leverage the hell out of that with Heinicke.
  
  Stack Options: Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson
  Bring-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Trey McBride

Honorable Mention: Trevor Lawrence, Will Levis

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Derrick Henry ($7,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – Amazing price for Derrick Henry. This is not a great matchup but I love the upside a 5% owned Derrick Henry provides with the new mobility and play-action with Will Levis. This is a prime GPP play this week and I’ll have plenty.
  
• Tony Pollard ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD) – Way too cheap on FanDuel as a double-digit home favorite. I’ll lock in Pollard for my cash game lineups and leave it at that. I will NOT talk you off him in GPPs, but I do have concerns the Cowboys are up by 30 early and we see a lot more Rico Dowdle.
  
• Kenneth Walker ($6,800 DK / $7,300 FD) – Playing running backs against the Washington Commanders is going to be a thing moving forward (just gave up damn-near seven yards-per-carry to New England). We love Stevenson last week and I love Walker even more this week. The touchdown equity here is top-tier and so is the leverage against a chalky Geno Smith.
  
• Joe Mixon ($6,200 DK / $7,700 FD) – Much better price on DraftKings but with no Tee Higgins and a plus-matchup against the Texans’ banged up defense, Mixon should warrant some of the highest ownership on the slate. I’m fine with playing Mixon in all formats.
  
• He Who Shall Not Be Named ($6,000 DK / $6,600 FD) – Art Smith, please use your brain. This is the nut matchup for running backs in what should be a back-and-forth affair. If you can stomach it, I’m going right back to it.
  
• Najee Harris ($4,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – Great matchup, great price. When it matters, the ball is getting into the hands of Najee Harris and he offers us some nice salary relief and low ownership.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne Jr., Aaron Jones, Alexander Mattison

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300 DK / $8,600 FD) – My top-tier WR1 on this slate (especially for full PPR formats like DraftKings)
  
• Mike Evans ($7,200 DK / $7,600 FD) – There is literally no one on this Tennessee secondary that can cover Mike Evans with Sean Murphy-Bunting OUT. If this game can get some pace, Mike Evans will be a slate-breaker around 5% ownership. Extremely affordable on FanDuel.
  
• DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK / $7,300 FD) – Another home-run type of play like Mike Evans against Emmanuel Forbes and this Washington secondary. If the weather is solid, fire up all of the DK Metcalf you can. He will absolutely destroy the man-coverage Washington continues to run at a high-rate.
  
• Chris Olave ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD) – Just a safe, cash-game type of play with some additional upside in the tank. The Vikings are more of a pass-funnel defense who will run a ton of Cover-3 and the league’s highest blitz rate. I love Olave’s floor in this matchup.
  
• DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – Too cheap for the banged-up pass-funnel, struggling secondary of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cash game staple and likely someone I’ll continue to lock into GPP lineups for the value.
  
• Drake London ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD) – London is healthy and good-to-go against Marco Wilson and the worst secondary in the NFL. He’s going to be sub-5% owned and someone I’ll use as a big GPP value as leverage off of a chalky Diontae Johnson and Cardinals’ defense.
  
• Marquise Brown ($5,200 DK / $6,600 FD) – Way too cheap now with Kyler Murray back. No need to overthink this one. Kyler absolutely abuses his “X” wide receiver against man coverage and we will see a lot of that with Atlanta’s defense.
  
• Punt Values: Tyler Boyd ($4,600 DK / $6,200 FD), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100 DK / $5,600 FD), Michael Gallup ($3,500 DK / $5,200 FD), Trey Palmer ($3,200 DK ONLY), Rondale Moore ($3,000 DK ONLY)

Honorable Mention: Ja’Maar Chase, Calvin Ridley, Tank Dell (cash-viable at his ownership), Diontae Johnson

Tight-Ends

• Sam LaPorta ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD) – With TJ Hockenson banged up, Sam LaPorta is my pay-up at the tight-end position if you want to do so. The Chargers play a lot of Cover-2 and Cover-1 and that is where LaPorta has been targeted at an elite clip.
  
• Kyle Pitts ($4,100 DK / $5,300 FD) – Again… Kyle Pitts is my favorite leverage play on the board. I’ll prioritize him in NFL DFS GPP lineups while everyone flocks to Trey McBride.
  
• Trey McBride ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings despite playing with his third quarterback in three weeks. I’m okay with McBride if you need the salary relief and he should have plenty of opportunities to work against Atlanta when they show Cover-2, but I don’t think there’s a ton of upside here.

Honorable Mention: TJ Hockenson, Evan Engram, Logan Thomas

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Tony Pollard
• Chris Olave
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Joe Mixon
• Geno Smith

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• DeAndre Hopkins
• Mike Evans
• DK Metcalf
• Derrick Henry

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

Welcome back for the Week 9 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a GROSS 10-game slate with some disgusting totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 9:
– Baltimore Ravens (25)
– Philadelphia Eagles (25)
– New Orleans Saints (24.75)
– Cleveland Browns (23.5)
– Indianapolis Colts (23)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. It’s obvious the two safest plays at the QB position this week are Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. If you want to play them, you know who to stack them with and get after it. Both are in play for cash game and GPP tournaments.

• Dak Prescott ($6,500 DK / $8,200 FD) – More interested again on DraftKings, but Dak Prescott is one of the higher values in the AETY Model against a pass-funnel defense in Philadelphia. For a weak slate, this is the game most likely to provide back-and-forth fantasy fireworks.
  
  Stack Options: CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson
  Bring-Back Options: A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, D’Andre Swift, DeVonta Smith
  
• Derek Carr ($5,700 DK / $7,100 FD) – On DraftKings, Carr is a fantastic value for both Cash Game Lineups and GPP builds. As of now, Carr is likely to get the QB spot for my cash game lineup, but with how popular Alvin Kamara is, Carr and this passing attack (against another pass-funnel defense in Chicago) offers us nice leverage in GPPs.
  
  Stack Options: Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed
  Bring-Back Options: D.J. Moore (or no one, lol)
  
• Jordan Love ($5,500 DK ONLY) – GPP punt-play only, but believe it or not, Jordan Love is one of the AETY Model’s top values. As terrible as he looks playing Quarterback, he does put up fantasy points and has three outings of over 3.5x value. The Rams’ defense is more of a pass-funnel and they simply do not have quality personnel in the secondary to make plays (you could argue the Packers’ do not have quality personnel in the passing game, lol). This is the exact same matchup we attacked last week with our love for Dak Prescott.
  
  Stack Options: Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Luke Musgrave
  Bring-Back Options: Likely no one if Matt Stafford is OUT
  
• DeShaun Watson ($5,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – GPP only, but DeShaun Watson is cheaper than Jordan Love, Sam Howell, and Daniel Jones… despite the injury and potential attitude issues, the Browns are in a playoff hunt and take on a putrid Cardinals’ defense. It sounds like Watson is good to go and would it really surprise you if Watson balled out against a weak opponent? He’s going to be in that 1-3% ownership range with one of the higher probabilities of slate-breaking value if you choose to pay down at quarterback.
  
  Stack Options: Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Elijah Moore
  Bring-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Trey McBride

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Saquon Barkley ($7,900 DK / $8,600 FD) – One of my favorite GPP plays as the whole field will try to get the extra money for Alvin Kamara. The Raiders’ defense is terrible and grades 3rd-to-last in run defense DVOA on this slate. With Daniel Jones back, look for this offense to be much more competent and utilize Barkley in every way that they can. It’s very likely we see Saquon under 10% in ownership.
  
• Josh Jacobs ($6,900 DK / $7,500 FD) – Extremely affordable on both outlets against a defense that grades 4th-to-last in run defense DVOA. The Raiders’ certainly struggle to move the ball in general, but at home with a rookie quarterback, Josh Jacobs should have a clear path to 20+ touches.
  
• Jonathan Taylor ($6,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – Would just go down to Jacobs or Bijan on FanDuel, but this is a fantastic DraftKings’ salary against the worst run defense in the NFL. It’ll be interesting to see how much Zack Moss we continue to see this week, but Jonathan Taylor is a DraftKings’ NFL DFS cash game staple.
  
• Bijan Robinson ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) – For the love of God, Arthur Smith, please feature Bijan Robinson. It’s not the best of matchups, but this offense has to be on the rise with Desmond Ridder going to the bench. At the price, it’s hard to pass up the talent and HOPEFUL usage of Bijan Robinson.
  
• Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD) – Great price. Great matchup. Great expected usage bump with all of the injuries on this New England offense. Washington just traded away their best run stopper and pass-rushers.
  
• Chuba Hubbard ($5,000 DK / $6,500 FD) – The punt-value at the running back position on DraftKings specifically. Personally, I have no interest in GPP contests but I’ll give Chubba and his slate-leading ownership a serious look in cash game formats.
  
• Devin Singletary ($4,300 DK / $5,300 FD) – The new chalk punt on the slate. Take it in cash.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara (crazy-high ownership… consider in cash), D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

• AJ Brown ($8,600 DK / $9,000 FD) – He does it every week. Tough matchup, but is AJ Brown the best wide receiver in fantasy AND real life football?
  
• CeeDee Lamb ($8,200 DK / $8,800 FD) – It’s going to be tough to prioritize both AJ Brown and CeeDee Lamb, but I will certainly try my best to do so. CeeDee Lamb is in a fantastic matchup against a banged up, pass-funnel defense in what should be one of the only shootouts on the slate.
  
• DK Metcalf ($6,900 DK / $7,200 FD) – Super cheap on FanDuel and going to be sub 5% owned while playing in the second highest totaled game on the board. It’s not a fantastic matchup but on the other hand, it’s not easy to cover DK Metcalf. If you’re on this game as a sneaky shootout (assuming most of the ownership goes towards DAL @ PHI), Metcalf should be a priority play in GPP builds.
  
• Chris Olave ($6,300 DK / $6,900 FD) – Olave is due for a massive output one of these weeks and what better spot to do so than hosting the Bears’ secondary? Michael Thomas ($4,700 DK / $5,900 FD) is again a nice value target on the outside vs the Bears’ zone defense. Having said that, I’d still rather use Olave for the play-making upside when he is on the outside.
  
• Amari Cooper ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD) – Arguably my favorite GPP play on the board. A cheap, WR1 in a plus-matchup is something I target on a weekly basis. If you have the stones to invest in a banged-up DeShaun Watson this week, give Amari Cooper serious consideration in a stack or as a low-owned one-off. The bookmakers seem to respect this Cleveland offense a lot this week as they hold the 4th highest implied team total on the slate.
  
• Zay Flowers ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD) – Dumb price again. Cheap, high-floor exposure to a great passing game environment.
  
• Demario Douglas ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – DraftKings cash-game staple with no Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker. This guy is legit as you know I’ve been talking about him for two months… it’s time. My only concern here is a very limited ceiling as he’ll likely be running more intermediate and underneath routes in the slot. At 20% ownership, it’ll likely be a fade for me in GPP contests.
  
• Jonathan Mingo ($3,400 DK / $5,100 FD) – On the 1st and Stix Podcast, I talked a lot about Mingo and the coverage advantage against a Juju Brents-less Colts’ secondary, who will run a ton of Cover-3 zone. Mingo gets a significant boost in expected targets per routes ran against Cover-3 and we will continue to attack the outside of this Colts’ secondary. I’d much rather roll the dice on a breakout game coming for a 5% or less owned Mingo than pay $600 more for Douglas chalk.

Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, DeVonta Smith, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Lockett, Nico Collins, Terry McLaurin, Romeo Doubs, Tank Dell, Elijah Moore, Van Jefferson

Tight-Ends

• Mark Andrews ($6,400 DK / $7,500 FD) – Only high-end tight-end on the slate now that Kirk Cousins is OUT. If everyone is going to pay-down at tight-end, Andrews makes a LOT of sense in all formats.
  
• Dallas Goedert ($4,800 DK / $5,800 FD) & Jake Ferguson ($4,000 DK / $5,100 FD) – If you’re looking for the cheap, red-zone exposure to the slate’s shootout, here you go.
  
• Kyle Pitts ($4,100 DK / $5,200 FD) – This dude is a receiver and will be the focal point of the Falcons’ passing attack that will be without Drake London. As EVERYONE goes to play a cheap Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts is my favorite leverage play on the board. I’ll prioritize him in both cash and NFL DFS GPP lineups. Let’s go, Kyle Pitts!

Honorable Mention: Dalton Schultz, David Njoku, Logan Thomas, Luke Musgrave

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Devin Singletary
• AJ Brown
• Demario Douglas
• Kyle Pitts
• Alvin Kamara

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• DeShaun Watson
• Amari Cooper
• Kyle Pitts
• Jonathan Mingo

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.