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New York Mets

MLB DFS Stack City (Apr. 7)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the premier edition of Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

After an extra-long break due to the lockout, we’re finally back. Both sites have different-sized slates that we’ll have to deal with today. Today’s Main Slates kicks off at 2:20 on FanDuel for a 7 game slate and at 4:10 on DraftKings for a 6 game slate. DFS wise, opening day is one of the tougher days to navigate through. We normally have a slew of Aces on the mound, making stacking that much more complicated and condensed.

Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Madison Bumgarner

I’ll start by saying this is the chalk stack of the day. Everyone and their mother will be on them, and rightfully so. MadBum is a shell of his former self. Age and bike accidents have caught up to him. While 2021 wasn’t nearly as bad as 2020, he still had one of the lowest K/9s of his career with a 7.63.

One of the most glaring things about MadBum last season was his career-high flyball rate of 45%. He had never been over 42% before last season. Hitters are starting to put the ball in the air more against him and that’s a recipe for disaster when you can no longer blow away hitters.

With the Padres I want to focus on the hitters from the right side of the plate. Thankfully for us, this lineup is littered with righties. One of my favorite targets in this stack is going to be newcomer Luke Voit ($3,500 FD/$3,500 DK). Last season he had a 45.5% hard-hit rate vs. lefties with a 36% flyball rate. He rates well against cutters too, with a .153 ISO against them.

The other pieces I love here are Machado ($3,800 FD/$4,800 DK), Wil Myers ($2,600 FD/$3,400 DK), and Austin Nola ($2,200 FD/$3,100 DK). All three have a long history of success against cutters and that’s going to be one of the main pitches being thrown to them by MadBum. On FD, this stack is criminally underpriced.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Zack Greinke

This is my “be different” stack today. Like MadBum, Greinke is at or past his expiration date. Greinke has a ton of miles on his arm and his performance has really started regressing over the years. He returns to Kansas City after leaving them after the 2010 season. He is a much different pitcher than he was 12 years ago. Greinke had a career-low 17% K% last season. While he still doesn’t allow many fly balls, his line drive % has ticked up and his groundball rate has gone down. This is an all-or-nothing play. You either do a full stack here or move on.

My stack here starts with Jose Ramirez ($4,300 FD/$5,600 DK). He is the face of the Guardians franchise and just signed a very fat contract to remain in Cleveland for a long time to come. Greinke throws an upper 80’s fastball to lefties. Over the last few years, Ramirez has in insanely high .778 ISO against that pitch type with an average distance of over 346 feet. That’s high!

With this stack, we don’t need to shy away from right-handed bats. Last season, Greinke was significantly worse to righties than lefties. I love the idea of starting this stack with Myles Straw ($2,700 FD/$4,300 DK) and then Amed Rosario ($2,500 FD/$4,200 DK). Neither of those guys will hit for much power, but they’ll get on base and make things happen for Ramirez.

New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin

There’s a chance this game gets washed out, but they did proactively move the game back to 7pm tonight with the hope of avoiding the weather. From a DFS and fan perspective, I really hope this game gets in. Patrick Corbin was a bit Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde last year. He had some absolutely brutal games and some gems. When all was said and done though, he still had a pretty bad year. His HR/9 crept up to almost 2 which was a career-high.

Some of the advanced metrics say he shouldn’t have been as bad as he was, but he was still bad with a career-high 4.29 xFIP and 5.82 ERA. It’s now 2 straight years with an xFIP over 4. Tonight he gets a tough matchup against a newly made Mets lineup. Righties had an ISO of .267 and a wOBA of .391 against him last year. The Mets will have 7 righties in their lineup tonight. You do the match on how bad this could potentially be for Corbin

When you stack the Mets, you start with the polar bear, Pete Alonso ($3,600 FD/$4,800 DK). Last year he had a .342 ISO against lefties. He has a ton of power and is always a home run threat. I love newly acquired Marte ($3,600 FD, $5,100 DK) but I plan on stacking the Mets 4-7 tonight. Last season was a struggle for JD David ($2,100 FD/$2,600 DK) thanks to a nagging hand injury. If he’s healthy this year, he should have a huge bounce back. Corbin throws his slider more than 36% of the time to righties. Davis over the last few years has absolutely crushed this pitch, to the tune of a .450 ISO. If he’s in the lineup today, he’s a core for this stack.

My other piece here would be Eduardo Escobar ($2,900 FD/$4,100 DK). Escobar is a lefty crusher as he had a .243 ISO against them last year. He too fairs well against sliders from lefties. This has the makings of a short day for Corbin.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kyle Hendricks

If you’re playing on FanDuel today, the Brewers should be in your consideration for stacks. Hendricks really struggled last year, posting career highs in ERA, xFIP, xERA, and Homers allowed. It was a struggle all year for him. With the Brewers, we’d want to focus on guys from the left side of the plate. Lefties had a .364 wOBA against Hendricks last season. He also gave up a tad bit more hard contact vs. them as well as fly balls. Hard contact and fly balls are what we’re looking for. My stack here would start with guys like Rowdy Tellez ($2,200 FD), Omar Narvaez ($2,500 FD), and Jace Peterson ($2,000). All three are close to min priced on FD and fared well against righties last season.

Other stacks I like today are the Cardinals and Atlanta. Both are high priced, especially on DraftKings. If I had to prioritize one of the 2, I’d side with St. Louis as they have the better matchup on paper.

MLB DFS Summary

Well, opening day is finally here my friends and MLB DFS is back! I’m like a kid in a candy store right now and can’t wait for the games to start. Fading the Padres is certainly in play today, but they are in a great spot. Could we get vintage MadBum? Sure. Are the chances high of that? Nope. It may be the homer in me as I’m a die-hard Mets fan, but I really love the spot for them. This is arguable the best lineup they’ve had in years up and down the lineup. They should smash Corbin and then get a below-average bullpen.

Good luck today and hope to see some green tonight!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday – 09/05

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($11.2k) vs. Oakland Athletics – What a year that Robbie Ray has had! He made some pitch selection changes coming into the year and they have really paid off in a Cy Young level season. Over the last month Ray has been dominant. He has a 37.5% K rate which is way above the field.

Ray has also been really doing a great job of limiting the hard contact with just a 25.7% hard hit rate over the last 30 days. Ray sets up extremely well w/ the A’s. His main strike out pitch is his slider and it’s a pitch that the A’s can struggle with as they have a handful of batters that have whiff rates over 30%.

If he can neutralize Marte today he should have one of his 50 FD point outings. He’s my SP1.

Dylan Cease ($9.3k) vs. Kansas City Royals – Cease put together a solid August. He had a 3.94 xFIP and an elite 33% K rate, trailing only Ray of all the starters going today. The match up vs. the Royals isn’t the greatest as they tend to be stingy, but if I’m going to attack the Royals it will almost always be with a righty.

Cease matches up pretty well w/ the Royals as his main pitch to strike batters out his slider. He has a 40% K rate with it this year and uses it about 30% of the time. Outside of Perez (my vote is to just intentionally walk him all day) the Royals lineup really struggles with sliders.

You have guys like Dozier and O’hearn who have whiff rates near 50%. If Cease’s slider is on today, sky’s the limit.

Luis Castillo ($9.9k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Of all aces going today, Castillo probably gets the softest of the match ups. Tigers over the last 30 days have a 24% K rate vs. righties.

While Mahle didn’t have the greatest game against them last night he did strike out 8 Tigers. I see no reason why Castillo can’t match that strike out number and I have more confidence in him limited the damage done.

Over the past 30 days he’s been keeping batters in check w/ just a 26% hard hit rate and just 4 barrels in nearly 30 innings of work. Castillo has just 1 start under 30 FD points in the last 3 months. Look for him to continue that trend w/ a floor of 30 points today.

I love Burnes as a pitcher and he should do well today. He’s just overpriced in my opinion as he’s almost $2k more on FD than he is on DK.

Burnes has faced the Cardinals 3 times this year and has only eclipsed 40 FD points once and that was back in April when he was striking out batters more consistently. I’m not saying don’t play him, I just think he’s closer to his floor today than he is his ceiling.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Griffin Jax – I’m going to channel my inner Brian and use the Rays as my top stack tonight. They get a match up in a pitcher that has been struggling to limit hard contact.

Over the past 30 days Jax has a near 48% hard hit rate with a 46% fly ball rate. Add those 2 numbers together and you have a pitcher in Jax that has given up 8 homers and 10 barrels in just 21 innings of work.

Jax has been pretty awful to both sides of the plate as righties have a .317 ISO against him and lefties a .400 over the past month. If we look at this Rays lineup they just dominate righties.

Lowe ($3.4k) and Kiermaier ($2.2k) are my favorites here. Lowe has a .338 ISO against righties over the past month and Kiermaier has .279. Both guys are my core.

The other guys I’ll look to sprinkle in from the Rays are Austin Meadows ($3.4k) and Wander Franco ($4.2k). The Rays are hot again w/ the bats and a pitcher like Jax stands no chance at slowing them down.

New York Mets vs. Josiah Gray – Don’t look now but the Mets’ bats have finally woken up after sleeping through most of August. Look, Gray has a ton of talent. He is one of the top pitching prospects in the game as he was part of the Turner/Scherzer deal.

That said, he’s still someone that is attackable with how he has been pitching of late. Over his last 27 innings of work he’s given up 8 homers. When you give up a 55% fly ball rate you’re bound to see some balls leave the park.

The first bat I’m going to build my core around will be Jonathan Villar ($2.8k) as he’s been red hot over the last week. He has a 1.359 OPS and .565 wOBA. The next guy is Michael Conforto ($2.7k).

Conforto is as streaky of a hitter as there is in the game. He’s seeing the ball extremely well right now and when he’s locked in, you play him. He has a 53% hard hit rate over the past week. Enjoy the ride while it lasts with him.

Another disappointing Met that is starting to see the ball well again is Francisco Lindor ($3.3k). Lindor has a 53% hard hit rate and 47% fly ball rate over the past week. With the Mets finally hitting like they were supposed to they should get to Gray early today and then get the Nats bullpen.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cole Irvin – Irvin has not been good over the past 30 days. Frankly, he’s been awful. Over the last month he has a 6.31 xFIP. He’s giving up more walks per 9 than he has strike outs.

With that in mind, the Blue Jays today are a team that you need to either go all in on, or fade today. He’s going to put a ton of batters on as he has a 1.71 WHIP since the beginning of August. With the Blue Jays I want to focus on the bats that have been the hottest.

Lourdes Gurriel ($3.3k), Vlad Guerrero ($4.5k), and Bo Bichette ($4k) all have an OPS over 1.100 over the past week. They are hot and if you play the Blue Jays today they should be in your lineup.

My hope is that Breyvic Valera ($2k) makes the lineup today. Over his last 3 games he’s been extremely productive and is essentially a free square if he plays. Montoyo, please play Valera!

While these 3 are may favorite stacks today, there’s a ton of offense to go around. The White Sox vs. Singer should put up a big number as he just puts so many batters on base. Also have to love the Yankees vs. Keegan Akin.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We have some really solid pitchers on the mound today. I will more than likely lock in Cy Young favorite Robbie Ray and then load up on the value plays from the Mets. Rays are extremely affordable on FD today and in a smash spot. This Sunday Funday has a great slate of games and we should see a ton of offense.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 09/02

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a small 5 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Before we dive in to today’s slate I wanted to take a few moments to talk about something extremely important to me. September is Suicide Prevention Awareness Month and a little less than 2 years ago suicide became very real for myself and my family. Two Octobers ago I got a call from my mother that is etched in my ear for the rest of my life. “Eric committed suicide”. He was the last person you’d expect to commit suicide. He married his high school sweetheart, had 2 amazing kids, a baller house, and a super successful business.

My brother also quietly suffered from demons that many of our friends, family, coworkers suffer with that we know nothing about. My request to all of you is to be conscience of your loved ones. If you notice a difference in a friend or family member or co-worker’s behavior, hold their hand. Talk to them. That simple outreach could save their life. If you are reading this and you are one of those suffering in silence, know you are loved by someone and your pain does not go away. If you ever need to talk reach out, my dm’s are always open.

With that said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The “Aces”

This may be the worst pitching slate of the year so we’ll need to tread with caution.

Shane McClanahan ($10.1k) vs. Boston Red Sox – The match up isn’t the greatest but McClanahan is one of the top arms on the slate. Over the last month he’s been really good. He has 2.94 xFIP and a 27% K rate.

While he his hard contact is a bit higher than I’d like to see from my SP1, he also has one of the lowest contact rates of any pitcher on the slate. McClanahan’s biggest out pitch is his slider which he’s been throwing 35% of the time this year.

If we look at the Red Sox projected lineup McClanahan should have a solid night. The big bats in this lineup all have high whiff rates against the slider. If his slider is on tonight this could be a ceiling game.

Triston McKenzie ($8.8k) vs. Kansas City Royals – If I’m going to pick on the Royals I’m going to do it with a righty. In McKenzie we’re getting a righty who has really come into his own over the past month. His last two outings have been by far his best in the majors with 8 K’s against the Angels and then 11 against Detroit.

Now the Royals aren’t at the same poor level as those teams but they aren’t an overly intimidating lineup. While McKenzie does throw his fastball more than 60% of the time he uses is curveball when trying to put away batters. This is a pitch he can use to neutralize the Royals top two hitters in Merrifield and Perez.

Perez has a 39% whiff rate against curveballs and Merrifield has just a .195 wOBA against them. If he can slow down those two, sky’s the limit for him tonight.

Cookie Carrasco ($6.8k) vs. Miami Marlins – We don’t have a big sample size on Carrasco this year because he first made his debut a little more than a month ago. His last 2 outings he really has seemed to turn a corner and he did against two very tough lineups.

He struck out 5 Giants and 6 Dodgers. Now he gets to take on a much weaker lineup in the Marlins. The projected Marlins lineup tonight has a 25% K rate vs. righties over the last month. Carrasco is near min priced for a pitcher and we could do a whole lot worse at this price point.

MLB DFS: The Bats

New York Mets vs. Zach Thompson – This Mets pick is contingent on Thompson starting. Marlins haven’t officially named him the starter but if he throws tonight I’m attacking him with the Mets.

The Mets seemed to have turned the corner and are finally hitting the ball again. Tonight they get to take on a pitcher in Thompson who has been pretty bad over the past month. He’s sporting a 5.53 xFIP and a near 38% hard hit rate.

With Thompson we want to attack him with batters from the left side as they’ve had a .277 ISO against him over the past month. The Mets have 3 lefties that are cheap to inexpensive that I’m going to focus on. It starts with Michael Conforto ($2.5k).

To say this season has been a bust for Conforto would be quite the understatement. That said, over the past week he’s turned things around and we have short term memories in DFS. Over the past week he has a 1.185 OPS with 2 homers and 2 barrels. He’s seeing the ball well and he’s one of the most streakiest hitters in the game.

The other 2 players I’ll build my Mets stack around are Jonathan Villar ($2.5k) and Brandon Nimmo ($2.9k). Villar is the hottest Met with a 1.463 OPS and 3 barrels over the last 7 days.

Atlanta Braves vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez – A power house lineup vs. a gas can in Colorado means we have the potential for a huge number tonight. Gonzalez has been brutal this year as he’s pitched to a 5.4 xFIP. He’s someone that doesn’t miss many bats and gives up hard contact at a 45% clip.

Gonzalez is a reverse splits pitcher and we’ll want to attack him with the righties as he’s given up a .302 ISO to them this season. My stack here will start with Riley ($3.7k) and Swanson ($3.5k). Both guys have been torching righties over the last month. Riley with a .345 ISO and Swanson with a .268.

Gonzalez has no true out pitcher as all of his pitches get hit hard so lets focus on his main pitch, the fastball. It’s been getting hit hard at a 45% clip this year. Riley and Swanson both have slugging %’s over .590 on the year vs. fastballs. While those are my building blocks here, I’ll be sure to have some Freeman ($4k) and Soler ($3.6k).

Cleveland Indians vs. Mike Minor – While not confirmed yet, Minor is expected to start for the Royals tonight. Minor hasn’t been awful the last 30 days, but he does what we want in DFS and that’s give up homers.

He’s given up 6 in his last 22 innings of work. In 3 of his last 4 starts he’s given up 2 homers. With the Indians we have a team that has some pop against lefties, especially over the past month.

The projected lineup for the Indians tonight has a .248 ISO against lefties in August and a .377 wOBA. With the Indians it always starts with Ramirez ($4.5K). Over the last 30 days he has a .405 ISO against southpaws with a .431 wOBA. He should see a ton of fastballs tonight.

Historically Ramirez has crushed fastballs from lefties as he has a .302 ISO against them over the last few years with a average distance of 327. There’s a great chance of him taking Minor yard tonight. I’ll surround him with Amed Rosario ($3.4k) and Franmil Reyes ($3.3k) as both guys have done well against lefties this year.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching is very suspect tonight. We’ll need to tread with caution with all of them but my lean right now is to go with McClanahan as my SP1. Red Sox have been beaten up by Covid and we should look to take advantage of it. I’ll look to the Mets for value tonight as some of the bats I want with the Braves and Indians are priced up, but fairly.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 7/31 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No major weather issues to keep rack of other than a few daytime/evening storms in St. Louis (which could delay the start of MIN-STL but most likely won’t get serious enough for PPD) and possible pop-ups around Atlanta.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Yu Darvish ($9,600)

Darvish has struggled in July but he comes at a discount against a Colorado lineup that should have trouble hitting his pitch arsenal — especially the cutter. Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 7/31 Starting Rotation article that the Rockies are among the worst in the league (and registering a putrid -4.7 Pitch Value vs. wCT over the past 30 days). While the team’s swinging strike rate and K% has decreased over the past month or so, there’s stil a lot of K potential here for Darvish — who projects for the highest FD total tonight among the available SPs. I’m looking at a floor of around 30-35 FD points with upside around 45-50 if he can get the W and QS.

Best GPP Value: Joe Ross ($7,400)

The price on Ross, who hadn’t officially been named the SP for tonight’s game against the firesale-depleted Cubs as of 11 a.m. EST, is just way to low for his 45-50 point upside. The Cubs’ team K rate is probably on the rise, and that almost guarantees a 25-30 point floor for the Nats righty. I think both pitchers in this game can be moderately successful, but with the early absence of Ross in the available SPs (with the green box checked for “show only probably pitchers”) I could see MLB DFS ownership coming in way below what it should for good old JR. Hendricks is $200 more and doesn’t have the same upside, but I’ll use him in maybe 1/10 GPP lineups just to get some variance.

Contrarian GPP Play: Aaron Nola ($11,000)

While Yu Darvish is discounted on FanDuel, Nola is mispriced at just $9,700 on DK — so we could see the Phillies fireballer come in way at lower ownership than normal as the top-priced arm on FD. The strikeout potential is through the roof for Nola facing a Pirates team that struggles against his signature four-seamer, where he gets most of his Ks. On the surface, Nola’s price seems a bit high when compared to the overall numbers of both Brandon Woodruff ($200 cheaper on FD) and Darvish, so he makes for a fine MLB DFS GPP play that probably won’t eclipse 25 or 30% ownership. With some of the massive value that’s out there in our forthcoming stacks, it shouldn’t be a problem affording him.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Chicago White Sox

Both sides of this game could post monster offensive numbers, and while I like the Indians as a GPP stack, the White Sox offer the most safety in cash games and single-entry builds. Cleveland SP Triston McKenzie has some electric stuff, but he walks 6.37 batters per 9 IP and is carrying a 5.61/5.15 ERA/FIP heading into tonight’s matchup. The three most important MLB DFS hitters to roster are Tim Anderson ($3,600), Jose Abreu ($3,400) and Yoan Moncada ($2,900), who came alive last night (3-for-5 with a HR and two runs scored). Abreu got plunked in the helmet last night and that caused a near fracas, so he might be looking for revenge today with the boomstick. Keep an eye on the status of Eloy Jimenez ($3,300), who’s DTD to with a groin issue, and also consider Andrew Vaughn ($2,900).

Value Stack: New York Mets

The Mets are in a great spot tonight against southpaw Wade Miley, who they faced on July 20. I always like a second crack at the same starting pitcher within a two-week time frame, and Miley wasn’t exactly boasting his best stuff in his last start on July 26 (my birthday!). They’ve added Javier Baez ($3,400) to their lineup, and he’s exactly what they need (.410 wOBA vs. LHP) to supplement the potent bats of Pete Alonso ($3,800 — and an even better wOBA vs. LHP than Baez) and the value laden J.D. Davis ($2,800) and James McCann ($2,200). Keep an eye on the status of the still-cheap Brandon Nimmo ($2700 — DTD with a hamstring “pinch”) and whatever the new lineup looks like with Baez in the mix, and consider lefty Jeff McNeil ($2,700) if he’s starting, since he’s sporting a .330 wOBA vs. LHP.

Contrarian Stack: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners aren’t a bunch that I get excited about stacking too often, but given the fact that they always fly under the radar and the smash spot some of these right-handed hitters are in for this matchup, I’m getting some exposure in GPPs. They immediately stood out when I looked at team totals and matchups for tonight and I as subsequently giddy to find out they were highlighted as the primary stack in Adam’s article (this could mean BIG GREEN SCREENS for WinDaily subscribers tonight)! I’m anchoring my stacks to Mitch Haniger ($3,400) and his .380 wOBA vs. LHP over his last 108 AB. Haniger has 10 HRs in those 108 AB and will be on all my SEA stacks. After that I’ll be mixing in three-man combinations among Ty France ($2,800), Luis Torrens ($2,600), Dylan Moore ($2,600), the recently acquired Abraham Toro ($2,500) and lefties Kyle Seager ($3,100) and leadoff hitter J.P Crawford ($2,500) — who both have wOBAs north of .300 against LHP.

One or more of that group might sit out tonight, so keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 07/29

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. A 4 game noon slate and a 5 game main slate.

For the first time in a while Fanduel split the slates properly. I’ll be walking you through options I like for both slates. We have a couple of decent pitching options on both slates and some solid stacks.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces

Gerrit Cole ($10.8K) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – After a stretch in June where Cole was really struggling with getting batters out and striking them out, it appears he has regained his form. Over the past 30 days Cole has a near 38% K rate and he’s brought his hard hit rate back down to just 26.9%.

The Rays hit for a lot of power, but we also know that if they aren’t hitting for power, they’re also striking out. Against righties this year they have a 25.5% K rate. Pitching against the Rays is never easy, but I like Cole to continue his stretch of solid pitching.

Luis Castillo ($8.9k) vs. Chicago Cubs – It’s only a matter of time before the tear down of the Cubs happens. We’re quickly approaching the deadline and I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see some of the guys sit or get traded before the game.

In Castillo we’re getting a pitcher that’s been in excellent form. His last 2 starts have been arguably his best. He has 17 K’s in his last 13 innings of work. Look for Castillo to continue his solid string of outings with another dominant performance today.

Alec Mills ($7.1k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – I will be sticking with the top 2 pitchers on the day slate, but if you want to get a little crazy (and who doesn’t like getting a little crazy every now and then) you want to take a look at Mills. There’s been a noticeable trend with the Reds in getaway days.

The offense generally is quiet and with the weather today being pitcher friendly Mills may be a good option. Over the last 30 days he’s actually been pretty good with a 3.53 xFIP that matches his ERA. His K rate is hovering around the 25% mark as well. Not a ‘wow’ guy, but he’s serviceable and should perform well today.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats

Chicago White Sox vs. Carlos Hernandez – White Sox largely disappointed last night. I’m going right back to the well today because they get a match-up with a pitcher that’s been giving up a lot of hard contact and a lot of fly balls. Over the past 30 days Hernandez is giving up a 41% hard hit rate with a 48% fly ball rate.

Hernandez doesn’t go deep so it means the Royals rely heavily on the bullpen when he pitches. In his last 7 outings the opposing team has scored 5 runs or greater in every outing. Hernandez’s fly ball rate shoots up to 50% against lefties so I want to ensure that Moncada ($3k), Sheets ($2.3k), and Goodwin ($2.4k) are in any White Sox stack today.

New York Mets vs. Drew Smyly – Really like this spot for the Mets today. Smyly is a very attackable pitcher. He’s a low strike out guy who’s been putting a lot of batters ton. His WHIP over the past 30 days is 1.43. If the Mets can show some patience today they should be able to get some runners on base for guys like Alonso ($3.6k) and Davis ($2.9k). Both guys should see a heavy dose of fastballs as Smyly throws it around 50% of the time to righties.

New York Yankees vs. Luis Patino – I should start with saying that Patino is a top pitching prospect. He’ll be a solid pitcher at the Major League level at some point. He’s just not there yet. It’s been a struggle so far and if we look at his performance during July we can see we have a pitcher that we can attack.

He’s had a 38% hard hit rate and a near 49% fly ball rate. Until he can show he can consistently get hitters out, he’s someone we should attack. He tends to do worse against righties so I’m going to load up on the likes of Stanton ($3.4k), Judge ($4k), and Torres ($3.6k). All 3 have solid power numbers against sliders and they should see a healthy dose of them.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces

Frankie Montas ($8.8k) vs. Los Angeles Angels – On FD tonight i really don’t think you’ll need to stray from Montas. He’s cheap, he’s in peak form, and he’s facing a beaten up lineup that’s even more beaten up with Walsh going on the IL yesterday.

Montas over the last 30 days has a 30% K rate, a 3.27 xFIP, and just a 25% hard hit rate. It’s baseball and anything can happen, but he really is in a smash spot tonight. Outside of Ohtani, this is not an intimidating lineup. Montas is my SP1 tonight.

Freddy Peralta ($9.7k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – This is a little bit more than I’d like to pay for Peralta being that he hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning in more than a month and he’ll continue to not go deep. But we’re very limited with pitching tonight so he’s one of the pitchers I’ll consider.

On the year Peralta has a 35% K rate which is one of the best in the game. The biggest red flag tonight with Peralta is that he’s facing a lineup that just doesn’t K much as the projected lineup has just a 22% K rate vs. righties this year.

Alex Cobb ($8.6k) vs. Oakland Athletics – If Cobb does indeed start tonight he’ll be in my top 3 pitchers to use. He’s not a sexy pick as his K rate is only 21% over the last 30 days and isn’t much higher if we look at the year as a whole.

He is someone though that gives us one of the higher ceilings on the slate as he’s reached 45 FD points on multiple occasions over the past month and a half. While i will probably stick with Montas in this range, Cobb shouldn’t be too far behind in terms of results.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

Detroit Tigers vs. Alex Wells – Who would have thought at the start of the year that the Tigers would be such a popular team to use as a stack? Not me. But here we are approaching August and the Tigers continue to put up big numbers.

Tonight they get a solid match up against a pitcher giving up lots of contact. In just 9 innings of work this year he’s given up a 46% hard hit rate and near 40% fly ball rate. With not being a high swing and miss guy, those numbers aren’t going to cut.

He throws is fastball more than 50% of the time and the Tigers have a bunch of guys that crush fastballs. My main targets here are Haase ($3.2k), Cabrera ($2.5k), and Schoop ($3.5k). Schoop will need to be monitored as he was a late scratch yesterday.

Baddoo ($3.5k) is hot and should also be a focus even though it’s a L/L match-up. Can’t expect Wells to go that long and at some point he’ll face a righty out of the pen.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Casey Mize – This is more a testament to the Tigers bullpen than it is for Mize. Mize hasn’t pitched more than 4 innings in more than a month and we can’t really expect anything different tonight. We saw yesterday that the Tigers pen is prone to blow ups.

This game has the makings of a nice game stack. If we focus on Mize he has very clear splits. He is far more dominant vs. righties so we’ll want to key in on the Orioles lefties.

Mullins ($3.1k) and Stewart ($2.1k) are my primary targets as both guys have upside and Stewart is near min priced. While the rest of the Orioles are secondary pieces based on Mize, they turn to primary pieces once we get into the bullpen.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chad Kuhl – Kuhl has been much better over the past 30 days. His strikeouts are up and his xFIP is down. That said, I still want to pick on him because the Brewers lineup is hot with 4 of their last 5 games being at 6 runs or better.

Kuhl tends to give up harder contact against lefties and the Brewers have a few that we can attack him with. Wong ($3k), Narvaez ($2.4k), and Tellez ($2.2k) are my prime targets. If Escobar plays tonight he’s also be someone I’ll want to focus on.

Bonus Stack – Toronto Blue Jays vs. Eduardo Rodriguez – There’s some weather concern in this game so I have it down on my list a bit. Blue Jays though are in a great spot. While Rodriguez has pitched well in his last couple of outings he’s also had a handful of outings this year where he’s blown up, with one coming against the Blue Jays in May.

Blue Jays line up very well with Rodriguez and his pitch type. They are a right handed heavy team and Rodriguez will throw them plenty of fastballs and change ups. We know that the Blue Jays are elite against fastballs, but they’re also great against change ups.

Guerrero ($4.5k), Semien ($3.8k), and Hernandez ($3.5k) all have ISO’s great than .200 against change ups. This could be another rough outing for Hernandez.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

Both slates today will have limited pitching options. I will be focusing my efforts on Castillo in the early slate and Montas in the main slate. With limited pitching options we typically see great stacking opportunities and today is no exception.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports . Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 07/25

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

We are back to having another day of dicey pitching options. Today’s goal will be to try to navigate some land mines and grab 3 pitchers and 3 stacks that will take us to the cash line.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Zack Greinke ($8.4k) vs. Texas Rangers – I’m going to chase here and it’s due to the Rangers lineup just not doing anything right now. Over the past week the Rangers offense has been one of the worst. They have a 28% K rate, a 3% barrel rate, and just a 24% hard hit rate. Last night they were 0-7 with RISP.

They’re just not getting anything done right now offensively. While Greinke is no longer a strike out pitcher, he is someone that is going to give us a comfortable floor. In today’s day and age with how volatile pitching has been, a floor is something that I’ll want. Even though he isn’t a high strike out guy, he is someone that’s been pitching pretty well recently.

Over the last month he has a 3.68 xFIP and just a 28% hard hit rate. With his price in the mid 8K region today, I feel pretty safe in saying that Greinke will bring some value back to us.

Tarik Skubal ($8.2k) vs. Kansas City Royals – Skubal’s K rate has down a bit over the past month as it’s hovering around 25% vs. 27% for the year, but honestly who’s isn’t? Skubal is another pitcher that’s going to give us a decent floor. Since late April Skubal hasn’t given us less than 20 FD points and the majority of his games have been greater than 30.

With Skubal we know that he has the ability to K a high amount of batters as he’s gotten it up to 9 K’s on more than a handful of occasions this season. The Royals aren’t a high strike out team, especially against righties. That said, they’re also a team that he was able to K 7 back in June. Look for another solid outing of Skubal today.

Sonny Gray ($8.6k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Will they notice if I don’t write up a third pitcher today? Outside of his last start vs. the Brewers Gray has been pretty good since returning from IL. Even with his rough outing, he was still able to score 17 FD points due to this 6 strike outs.

Today he gets a match-up against a Cardinals team that has been susceptible to strike outs. Over the past week only a handful of teams are striking out at a quicker pace than the Cardinals. As long as the weather cooperates today in Cincy, Gray should have himself a solid day.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Detroit Tigers vs. Daniel Lynch – Lynch is returning for his second stint with Royals. His first stint was a disaster. He pitched to a 6.17 xFIP and gave up entirely way too much hard contact. While he is a top prospect, until he proves otherwise at the Major League level he’s someone that we need to consider attacking. We’re going to attack him today with one of the hottest lineups in the Tigers.

We don’t have much data to go on because his first stint was brief, but what we can tell is that he was far worse against righties as he gave up a 53% hard hit rate to them with just a 15% K rate. The Tigers have the potential today to stack their lineup with batters entirely from the right side.

Grossman ($3.3k), Haase ($2.8k), and Schoop ($3.5k) are my main targets here as they’ve crushed lefties all year. They should all fare well against the fastball slider combo they’ll face. All other Tigers will also be in play today.

New York Mets vs. Ross Stripling – Mets gave up a 10 spot last night. Today, they return the favor. Over the past month Stripling has struggled mightily. In just 14+ innings of work he’s given up 7 homers. That equates to one every other inning. In his last outing he didn’t make it out of the first after giving up 6 ER against the Red Sox. His outing before he gave up 4 ER through only 3.

We have a pitcher here who is in a funk and we should look to exploit it. His platoon splits are pretty neutral so all Mets are in play today. He throws his low 90’s fastball more than 50% of the time to both righties and lefties. The guys that crush this pitch are Brandon Nimmo ($3k), Pete Alonso ($3.7k), JD Davis ($3.2k), and Michael Conforto ($2.9k). All have ISO’s greater than .375 to this pitch. The ball should be flying out of Citi today.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Bailey Ober – More often than not this year Ober has been someone that we have been able to rely on. Not from a solid pitching standpoint, but someone that we can attack. He’s given up at least 1 homer run in 5 of his last 7 starts.

Over the last 30 days he has a near 43% hard hit rate and a 47% fly ball rate. This screams for us to attack and that’s exactly what I plan on doing today. The two Angels that I’ll be building around today are Ohtani ($4.4k) and Walsh ($3.2k) as both have crushed righties this year with ISO’s of .375 and .252 respectively. Walsh has been a bit cold of late but he’s also been extremely unlucky with a .143 BABIP. Look for Ober to be his slump buster today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Weather will be a bit of a concern today as there are forecasted thunder showers in a handful of games. With it being Sunday always make sure to keep an extra eye on lineups as they tend to get a bit funky.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Friday – 07/23

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

We finally have some solid pitching to work around tonight. Some of our big strikeout guys are on the hill tonight so we have some high upside pitchers to work into our lineups. J.A. Happ is also on the mound tonight so you know I’ll be attacking him.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

I’ve said this before and I’ll say again, if you are aren’t starting your day with Adam’s Starting Rotation you’re doing it wrong. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the business.

Lucas Giolito ($9.8k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – After a little bit of a lull in performance during the month of June, Giolito appears to have turned the corner with back to back really solid starts. He has at least 8 K’s in each of his last two starts and the match-up tonight against the Brewers presents himself with another opportunity to do so again.

Over the past week the Brewers bats have been very quiet. They have a near 27% K rate and have one of the lowest barrel/hard hit percentages in all of baseball. With Gio on a roll and the Brewers bats asleep behind the wheel, it’s absolutely something I’ll want to take advantage and it’s one of the best match-ups for the all the aces going tonight. With his price under $10k on both sites tonight, he’s going to be my SP1.

Frankie Montas ($8.6k) vs. Seattle Mariners – If I’m going to live in the mid-range tonight, Montas is going to be my guy. Over the past month he’s seen a pretty nice uptick in performance. His xFIP is sitting at 3.96 vs. his season long 4.35 and his K rate is sitting at 26% vs. 24%.

Tonight he gets a match-up vs. a Mariners team has that really struggled of late. In the past week they have a near 30% K rate and only 9 barrels. Montas faced the Mariners once already this season and was able to K 11 guys. While I think that’s about the max he can get, I do like him to take advantage of this lineup again.

Gerrit Cole ($10.5k) vs. Boston Red Sox – It looks like Cole has figured out how to pitch post sticky stuff. His last 2 starts have been absolutely dominant. He has back to back double digit strike out games. This is a feat he hadn’t accomplished since late April.

Over the past month his K rate is 35% which is the highest of any pitcher on the hill tonight. The match-up against the Red Sox isn’t an easy one but it’s one he took full advantage of a week ago. Can lightning strike twice?

MLB DFS: The Bats

New York Mets v. Steven Matz – Matz makes his return back to New York tonight. His first start where it all began. A kid from Long Island that go to play for his hometown team. There’s definitely some narrative tonight with Matz, but there’s also a match-up with the red hot Mets lineup.

Matz at times has been very good this season. He’s also had some outings that brought back a lot of memories of his time with the Mets. He does not line up well with this Mets offense. He’s going to throw predominantly a sinker tonight. Mets have some hitters on the right side that absolutely crush left handed sinkers.

Alonso ($3.9k) has a .833 ISO against this pitch. Both JD Davis ($3.4k) and James McCann ($2.5k) have ISO’s over .360. Up and down this lineup, they hit the sinker well. Mets tonight have the potential to really ruin Matz’ homecoming tonight. Look for the ball to fly out of the park tonight against Matz.

Detroit Tigers vs. Kris Bubic – Bubic is slowly becoming one of my favorite pitchers to attack. His sophomore campaign has not been a good one, and he’s been even worse over the past month. In his last 15 innings of work he’s given up 4 homers. He also has a 39% hard hit rate and a 44% fly ball rate.

This is the type of pitcher that we want to target and we’re going to target him with the hottest team in baseball. His ISO against this year is greater than .222 to both sides of the plate. He’s actually been a bit worse against lefties so we won’t need to shy away from guys like Baddoo ($3k) tonight.

I’m going to go heavy on Schoop ($3.4k), Grossman ($3.2k), and Haase ($2.9k) though tonight. All three have ISO’s greater than .200 to lefties this year and they’re facing a very hittable one tonight. Tigers are going to face a heavy mix of fastballs and change ups tonight. Haase has a .273 ISO against change ups. He is the cornerstone to my build tonight if using the Tigers.

Los Angeles Angels vs. J.A.Happ – After a nice 3 game stretch at the end of June and beginning of July that saw Happ have solid games, the old Happ resurfaced in his last outing against the Tigers. Look for that Happ to appear again tonight.

He’s facing an Angels team that has been one of the best in baseball against lefties this year. They have a .781 OPS, .191 ISO, and a wRC+ of 115 vs. south paws. And they got one of their best lefty crushers back last night in Justin Upton ($3k). Happ is far worse against righties as his ISO balloons up to .274 against them. He also gives up way more hard contact to them at 42%.

That said, Ohtani ($4.4k) has crushed lefties this year with a .362 ISO and should be part of your stack. Two other guys I’m interested in here are Fletcher ($3.3k)and Iglesias ($2.7k). Both guys are swinging hot bats OPS’s over .900 in the last week.

While these 3 teams are my favorite stacks tonight, there are a plethora of teams in great spots. Dodgers vs. Chi Chi and Astros vs. Allard are both great match-ups. Allard has been very susceptible to the long ball this year. You also have to love both teams in Baltimore tonight as Lopez and Corbin are both guys that can struggle to get batters out.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We finally have some high strike out guys on the hill tonight. There are also a handful of gas cans throwing tonight so ownership of stacks should be well spread out. Outside of some potential showers in Boston we should have some clear skies throughout our games tonight.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 07/11

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

It’s the final slate before the All Star break so let’s make it a good one. We have a bunch of solid mid-tiered options today on the hill and a few good hitting environments.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jose Berrios ($9.9k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Berrios is a little more expensive than I’d like, but he gets a great match-up today vs. the K heavy Detroit Tigers. On the year the Tigers have really struggled against righties. They have a near 27% K rate while hitting for limited power.

If we look at more recent data, we can see that the Tigers have really been struggling of late. Over the past week they have a 29% K rate. Even Happ was able to man handle them recently. Berrios himself is coming off a 10k performance. It was the first time he reached double digits all year. Can he do it again? The match-up is out there for him a repeat.

Pablo Lopez ($9.3k) vs. Atlanta Braves – The Braves lineup took a huge blow last night when they lost Acuna for the year. He is the catalyst of their lineup. My hope is that Lopez can take advantage of that huge today. Also without Acuna in the lineup today we don’t run the risk of Lopez throwing at him today and getting tossed after the first batter.

Lopez has been really solid of late. He’s been dialing up more K’s over the past month as his K rate is sitting at 31% compared to 26% on the year. While the Braves have solid numbers vs. righties this year, they also have an above average K rate sitting at 25%. Acuna being out will only raise that number. Look for Lopez to have a solid day today and end up being one of the top pitchers on the slate.

Brandon Woodruff ($11.2k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – Woodruff is getting to take on a lineup today that has been striking out a ton over the past week. In the last 7 days the Reds have a 27% K rate. I want to take advantage of that today and the good thing for us is that we get a strike out pitcher against them.

Woodruff on the year has a 31% K rate. If we take out his last start against the Mets (we’ll get to them shortly) Woodruff has been great of late. He struck out 9 Dbacks and then 8 Cubs in back to back starts. I like Woodruff to get back on the saddle today and rack up his 8-9 K’s against the reds.

While I didn’t write him up, Robbie Ray ($10.4k) is also in play for GPP’s. He’s an elite strike out pitcher taking on a team that K’s a high clip vs. lefties. They also hit for a ton of power against lefties so it’s a high boom or bust pick.

MLB DFS: The Bats

New York Mets vs. Chase De Jong – It’s been close to two months since I wrote the Mets up as a stack. Their lineup had been beaten and bruised for the better part of that time. Well they are finally healthy and I want to see what they can do against Chase De Jong.

De Jong has really struggled over the past 30 days (longer than that). He’s giving up a ton of hard contact 41% to go along with a high fly ball rate of 41%. He’s someone that we can exploit with both sides of the plate as he has an ISO greater than .240 to righties and lefties.

Alonso ($3.8k) is the key to this lineup as he’s been red hot of late. He has 4 homers in the last week to go along with 5 barrels. Lindor ($3.2k) has also been better of late and I’ll want to include him in any Mets stack I use today. Look for the Mets to put up a big number today.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Rich Hill – This is not a match made in heaven for Hill today. First, let’s look at what Hill has done over the past month. 6 homers in his last 24 innings of work and a 5.56 xFIP. Over his last 5 games he’s given up 4 ER 3 times. I want to try to take advantage of this today.

If we look at pitch make up, we can absolutely exploit him. He throws his curveball more than 40% of the time to righties. Blue Jays have a bunch of guys that hit for a ton of power against left handed curveballs. Springer ($3.7k) has a .533 ISO against it, Hernandez ($3.2k) has a .292 ISO, and Grichuk ($3.1k) has a .267 ISO. These guys should be able to do some damage against Hill today.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Nick Pivetta – Pivetta faces his former teammates for the first time. I think by the end of the day Pivetta wishes he was still on that Phillies team. Pivetta has been giving up home runs at a pretty high pace of late. In his last 28 innings of work he’s given up 8. If we add in the fact that he has a 3.54 BB/9 we know that here’s a pitcher we can take advantage of.

Pivetta is throwing his 4 seamer more than 50% of the time to both sides of the plate this year. Up and down the lineup this has been a pitch that the Phillies have had a ton of success against this season. Realmuto ($3.3k), Hoskins ($3.7k), and Miller ($2.6k) all have slugging %’s greater than .500 to the pitch this year. Harper ($4.1k) is sitting at .493. It’s really going to be a tough day for PIvetta. With the Phillies rolling of late and a great match-up they are my top stack today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Sunday always presents us with the added risk of veterans sitting due to it being getaway day. With it being the final day before the All Star break, it’s even more important to keep an extra eye on lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 06/20

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 9 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

Before we kick things into gear I wanted to wish all those dads out there a happy father’s day. Hope you get to enjoy your day.

Today’s FD slate brings us something we don’t normally get to see on a Sunday, the Coors game is included in the main slate. Any time there’s a game in Coors, I try to look for a reason to fade rather than a reason to play it. Chi Chi Rodriguez is on the hill for Colorado today so there’s no reason to fade it.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Taijuan Walker ($9.4k) vs. Washington Nationals – Walker has been absolutely brilliant in his last 2 outings. He has 21 K’s in 14 innings of work. Is that something we should expect every time out? Probably not. But if we look at his larger body of work for the year, he’s been pretty damn good.

Over the past 30 days Walker has been even better. He has a 3.23 xFIP and a near 33% K rate. While both numbers compared to his whole season of work indicate there may be some regression, I do like his chances of continue his solid stretch today vs. the Nationals.

On the season the Nationals haven’t really hit for much power vs. righties. They have a .678 OPS and just a .136 ISO. I expect his K’s to come down from his last outing, but I do think he strikes out enough batters to pay off his salary. At $9.4k, he’s also not going to break the bank.

Kent Maeda ($7k) vs. Texas Rangers – Maeda is someone that won’t go deep for you. But with his price today, we don’t need that. We need someone that will go 5-6 innings and strikeout a batter per. In Maeda and with his match-up, there’s a strong level of confidence he can do that.

Rangers projected lineup today has a 26% strike out rate vs. righties. If we look at Maeda’s pitch mix we can see his pitch of choice is the slider. Outside of Nate Lowe, this is a pitch that the Rangers mostly struggle with. Almost the entire lineup has a whiff rate greater than 34%. There’s going to be some upside to Maeda today.

Zach Thompson ($5.5k) vs. Chicago Cubs – This is a risk it or biscuit type of call. I will more than likely be locking in Walker and moving on today, but I like attacking the Cubs with righties. They’ve shown a high propensity to strike out in bunches. On the year, they have a 25% strike out rate to righties.

They managed just 1 hit yesterday vs. Lopez and only 3 on the day. Thompson looked really good in his last outing against a much better lineup in the Braves. Could he replicate that performance today against the Cubbies? There’s a decent chance.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Matt Harvey – Blue Jays will be chalky today. They’re facing a pitching in Harvey who is just absolutely struggling and at some point the Orioles will have to pull the plug on this Harvey experiment.

Over the past 30 days Harvey has a 4.5 xFIP and has given up 5 homers in just 17 innings of the work. Where you really want to attack Harvey is with lefties as he’s giving up a 43% fly ball rate and a 40% hard hit rate. This makes getting Biggio ($3.3k) into your lineup a priority.

Righties are doing plenty of damage against him too so guys like Guerrero ($4.6k) and Semien ($3.8k) should also be part of any stack. Gurriel ($2.8k) is the cheapest of the bunch and profiles extremely well against Harvey so you should try to get some exposure to him as well.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chi Chi Rodriguez – I touched on this in the open but with Coors slates I try to look for a reason to not play the game due to it normally being a chalky spot. I just can’t ignore the spot today with Rodriguez on the hill.

He has been just brutal “this” year. He has a 5.17 xFIP and is only striking out 13% of the batters he’s facing. He’s also giving up a ton of hard contact at 41%. Batters just tee off on him.

With Gomber getting pulled early last night the Rockies had to use 5 different relievers. They’re taxed. This could very well mean we get a longer outing out of Rodriguez today. And I love that.

Rodriguez has been worse against righties with a 51% hard hit rate to them. This means we should prioritize getting in Adames ($3.2k), Urias ($3.5k), and Garcia ($3.8k). Yes, you read that right. 3 guys under $4k, in Coors, against the worst pitcher in baseball. All batters in this lineup should be in play today though.

New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin – While Corbin doesn’t give too many homers, he does give up a ton of hard contact. This means if you decided to use the Mets as a stack today, you need to go all in and not chase homers.

Corbin is giving up a 45% hard hit rate this year to go along with his 5 xFIP. He tends to give up more fly balls to righties so we need to try squeeze them in. If we look at pitch data we see that his pitch of choice to righties is the sinker.

Alonso ($4.1k), McCann ($3k), and Pillar ($2.7k) all come into play as they have ISO’s greater than .300 to left handed sinkers. Jonathan Villar ($3.5k) also profiles very well against Corbin.

They aren’t in the my top 3 (I’d probably rank them 3.5), but you can’t ignore what the Orioles have done against lefties this year. The Orioles have a near .800 OPS and .342 wOBA.

They are also dirt cheap on FD today and will make a fine compliment to one of your expensive stacks. Mountcastle ($2.5k) had a hat trick yesterday and is a great value. Mancini ($3.1k) has an ISO over .320 this year against lefties. Don’t sleep on the Orioles today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching is very suspect today. Only one team so far has an IRT less than 4. This slate has the makings of a home run derby type of day with some of the gas cans going.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases Monday – 06/14

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Monday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a larger than normal 13 game Monday main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

For a 13 game slate, today’s pitching is about as bad as you’ll see all year. Each arm today brings a ton of risk. With each arm bringing a ton of risk, it also means that we’ll have plenty of bats to pick from.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Tyler Glasnow ($10.8k) vs. Chicago White Sox – I don’t normally make it a practice to attack the White Sox. The entire lineup is filled with power. Glasnow is however the best pitcher on the slate.

Over the past 30 days he has a 2.74 xFIP and a 30.8% K rate, which is down a bit from his 36% k rate for the year. While the White Sox do have a ton of power, they’re also striking out at a near 25% clip to righties this year. While not overly high, it still means there are some K’s in there for Glasnow.

Adam Wainwright ($8k) vs. Miami Marlins – I told you pitching was bad tonight. This is more a testament to the Marlins lineup than it is Wainwright. Marlins on the year are striking out nearly 26% of the time to righties and not hitting for much power with a .135 ISO.

While Wainwright at this point in his career isn’t going to strike out 10 guys a night, he’s someone that’s going to be resourceful enough to get you more than a handful of K’s while not completely blowing up against a lineup like the Marlins. His pitch mix of mostly sinkers and curveballs matches up really well with the Marlins. Not a sexy pick, but I think it’s a pick that will open up salary for you on a night where there are a ton of solid hitting environments.

Lance Lynn ($11k) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – I will most likely be picking between the first 2 guys I mentioned. That said Lynn is one of the best and most consistent arms on the slate. He’s surpassed 40 points in 5 of his last 6 starts.

His match-up carries a ton of risk as the Rays bring a lot of power vs. righties. While they bring power, they also strike out more than 26% of the time. If he can somehow limit the damage of the long ball tonight, there could be some upside for him tonight.

Again, not even remotely a safe pick due to the match-up, but there isn’t a single safe arm tonight. He’s my third ranked option on the night.

MLB DFS: The Bats

There is a Coors game tonight. I wouldn’t blame you for stacking that game. On a night like tonight where there are so many offenses faces poor pitching you should be able to differentiate yourself from the field by fading that game.

Oakland Athletics vs. Dylan Bundy – Bundy has been really bad this year, but he’s been especially bad over the past 30 days. For the year, his xFIP is hovering around 4.4. If we look at a more recent sample size though, it sky rockets up to 5.49 over his last handful of starts.

His FB rate is the highest it’s been since 2018, but what’s the most troubling with him is that his HR/FB rate is the highest of his career. In his last 17 innings he’s given up 8 homers. Is that bad? It seems bad.

He’s been pretty impartial to both righties and lefties as his ISO is over .230 to both sides of the plate. While my slight lean will be to the guys like Matt Olson ($3.8K) and Mitch Moreland ($2.3k) who have the platoon advantage tonight, there’s no reason to shy away from the righties in this one.

New York Mets vs. Jake Arrietta – When Arrietta is on the mound I make it a point to stack against him. His xFIP this season is north of 5. That’s not a short sample at this point as we’re midway through June. To have a xFIP that high this far into the year means you’re struggling at the Major League level to get guys out.

His ISO to both sides of the plate is over .300. Villar ($3.2k), Lindor ($3k), Alonso ($4.2k), and Smith ($2.6k) are my main targets here. But honestly, any guy in this lineup should be able to square up Jake at this point.

Kansas City Royals vs. Matthew Boyd – What I said about Arrietta stands true for Boyd. His xFIP on the season is also greater than 5. He’s struggling to get guys out this year.

Boyd has especially struggled vs. righties this year. His FB rate is over 46% and his hard rate is almost 43%. My favorite guy in this lineup is Salvador Perez ($3k) as he crushes left handed pitching. I will also sprinkle in some Merrifield ($3.7k) and Soler ($2.8k). Royals have as good of a match-up as anyone out there tonight.

Another team that I really like tonight is the Cubs. They’re facing off against Peterson who has been abysmal in his last two outings. If this game plays tonight it very well may be the top scoring game of the night as it has two awful pitchers going. There is risk though and since I also wrote up the Mets in that game I didn’t want to give you 2 out of 3 teams that are at risk of not playing.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching is awful tonight but we have plenty of bats we can focus on. I don’t think you’ll need to go to Coors tonight and fading that game gives you an opportunity to differentiate yourself from the crowd.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

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MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

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MLB DFS: The Aces

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MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

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MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

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