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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Oct. 8)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wild Card edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

What a first day of the Wild Card it was.  Phillies had a massive comeback and Mad Max had his worst playoff start of his career.  Today’s a new day and hopefully we see some great action. 

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob Degrom vs. San Diego Padres

Although the Padres bats came alive yesterday, I don’t think it happens 2 days in a row.  Mad Max clearly still has a hurt oblique as the spin rates on all of his pitches were down and down significantly.  He had just a few swings and misses last night and was essentially throwing beachballs. 

Today’s going to be different as Jacob Degrom toes the rubber for the Mets.  Although he’s been giving up a few mistakes that have led to some homers against him, he still has a massive 42% K rate over the last month.  The Padres are a team that struggles with fastballs.  Degrom throws a bunch of them.  He should be able to square this Wild Card matchup back up. 

Triston McKenzie vs. Tampa Bay Rays

I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again.  This Rays lineup just isn’t that good.  Outside of Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena, they have no serious weapons.  Shane Bieber absolutely dominated the Rays yesterday and we should see McKenzie do it as well.  McKenzie, in my opinion, is the ace in waiting in this rotation.  He’s been solid over the last month of the season, having a WHIP of .88 and an ERA of just 1.91.  He’s pitching really well right now and that should continue today.    

Other pitchers that could do well today will be  Aaron Nola and Tyler Glasnow.  The only concern with Glasnow is that he has just 2 3-inning starts this season after coming back from TJ surgery.  We can’t expect him to pitch much longer than a handful of innings.  

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Robbie Ray

I like the Blue Jays to get this series back to even today in a matchup vs. their old teammate in Robbie Ray.  Ray had the finest year of his career while wearing the Blue and White of the Blue Jays.  He has fond memories of pitching in Toronto, but those fond memories will be long in the rear-view mirror after he gets shelled today. 

The Blue Jays were one of the better teams in the league this year vs. lefties and should be able to get to Ray today.  Over the final month of the season, Ray was not overly sharp as he had 3 games giving up at least 4 ER, and his final start of the season he got rocked by the A’s. He should struggle vs. a really good Blue Jays lineup today.

Core:  My core with the Blue Jays this afternoon will be Teoscar Hernandez, Whitt Merrifield, and George Springer.  I’m going to prioritize getting these 3 guys into my lineups.  All 3 smashed lefties over the final month of the season.  Springer had a .360 ISO and a .383 wOBA while Hernandez had a .400 ISO and a .388 wOBA.  Then there was Merrifield.  Over the final month, he had a .444 ISO and a .481 wOBA vs. southpaws.  He’s just $3.1k on DK and is a solid value. 

Secondary Pieces/Value:  Other Blue Jays bats I’ll look to today will be Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette, and Danny Jensen.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miles Mikolas

The Phillies bats woke up late in Game 1 and we should see that momentum carry over to game 2 for the series sweep today.  I don’t think Mikolas is any more than an average pitcher.  He has limited K upside and pitches to a ton of contact.  Over the last month of the season, he had an 80% contact rate and just a 24.5% K rate.  Most importantly though, hitters had 8 barrels and 4 homers against him over the 26 innings of work. 

Core:  My Phillies stack is going to start with Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto.  Schwarber has absolutely terrorized righties over the last month.  He had a .492 ISO and a .468 wOBA.  A leadoff homer from today isn’t out of the question. 

Realmuto also finished the season strong vs. righties.  Over the final month, he had a .300 ISO and a .380 wOBA.  Mikolas is a pretty splits neutral player so Realmuto won’t be at a disadvantage.   

Secondary/Value:  I also Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, and Jean Segura.  Look for this Phillies lineup to light up Mikolas today.  

MLB DFS Summary

Other stacks I like today will be the Mariners vs. Kevin Gausman and St. Louis Cardinals vs. Aaron Nola.  If you want to get really crazy and you’re entering multiple lineups, stacking against Degrom can really set you apart today.  He’s given up 6 homers over his last 28 innings of work.  A ton of Ks too, but the homers are extremely troubling. 

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Oct. 7)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wild Card edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

Playoffs?  You want to talk about Playoffs?  Yes!  Yes, I do!.  The 2022 MLB playoffs start today and as a Mets fan, I’m excited!  MLB DFS is tough during the playoffs as we’re normally dealing with solid starting pitching and today’s pitching is quite good. 

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Max Scherzer vs. San Diego Padres

While the Padres are a star-studded lineup, the Mets signed Max Scherzer to a massive deal in November for this very moment.  He’s been one of the best pitchers of our generation and tonight is his chance to shine on the big New York stage.  He’s coming into this having struggled in his last outing vs. the Braves, giving up 4 ER in just 5 innings of work. 

Prior to that though he had been lights out, not allowing more than an ER in 4 consecutive starts.  His K rate is nearly 31% over the last month, tops of any pitcher today.  He’ll have his hands full tonight, but he’s the best pitcher on the slate.  I’m locking him in as my SP1. 

Shane Bieber vs. Tampa Bay Rays

We’ll see a substantial drop off in strikeouts from Scherzer to Shane Bieber, but Bieber gets the better matchup today.  This isn’t the same Rays team of last year when they had the likes of Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows.  Lowe’s on the IL and Meadows was shipped off to the Tigers.  While it’s a solid lineup, it’s also one that has struggled vs. righties.  Over the last month, they have just a .117 ISO, a .224 wOBA, and a nearly 32% K rate vs. righties.  This is a really solid spot for Bieber today.

Zack Wheeler vs. St. Louis Cardinals

While my lean right now is to lock in Scherzer and Bieber, I may take a chance on Wheeler as well.  He’s coming into this one fairly fresh as he’s only thrown 15 innings over the last month. And those 15 innings have been absolutely dominant.  The competition in those last 3 starts wasn’t the toughest, but over them, he allowed just 1 run. 

Although the matchup will be tough for him today against the Cardinals, the Cardinals haven’t really been crushing the ball over the last month against righties.  Against righties, over the last month, they have just a .066 ISO.  It’s only that high due to how well Pujols did coming down the stretch.   

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cleveland Guardians vs. Shane McClanahan

While I typically reserve using the Guardians against righties, they’re getting the pitcher today coming into the playoffs pitching the worst.  McClanahan did not have a strong finish to the season.  It could very well be due to the fact he’s never thrown this many innings.  His 166 innings this year were the most he’s thrown in his young career, and by a lot. 

Over the last month, McClanahan pitched to a 5.21 ERA and a matching xFIP.  He was giving up more hard contact and more flyballs as the season ended.  The hope is that it continues today and that the Guardians can take full advantage of his struggles. 

Core:  My core with the Guardians today will be Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez, and Andres Gimenez.  Ramirez finished up the season strongly.  He finished with a 5-game hitting streak, a streak that saw him get at least 18 DK points 3 times.  Now he’s normally better as a lefty, but he’s the heart and soul of this franchise.  If they’re going to advance to the NLDS, it will be on his back. 

Next up is Gimenez.  Gimenez has been one of their better hitters vs. lefties all year, and especially recently.  Over the last month, Gimenez has a .410 wOBA vs. lefties in about 30 AB.  McClanahan has been slightly worse against lefties this season, making this L/L matchup for Gimenez all the more sweeter. 

Secondary Pieces/Value:  Other Guardians bats we look to today will be Myles Straw and Gabriel Arias.  Arias finished the season strong vs. lefties, with a .384 wOBA and a .273 ISO over since his call-up in late September.

New York Mets vs. Yu Darvish

After getting swept by the Braves, the Mets returned the favor to the Nationals.  Their bates woke up during that series and they’ll hopefully continue with the momentum from the final series.  The matchup will be tough for them against Yu Darvish, but the time to attack Darvish is when he’s on the road. 

His ERA this season was a full run higher away from San Diego.  It also helps that Darvish hasn’t exactly been Mr. October.  In 7 career playoff starts, Darvish has a 5.18 ERA.  Most of that was from when he struggled in the 2017 playoffs with the Dodgers. 

Core:  My Mets stack will start with Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso.  Brandon Nimmo finished the season on fire.  He had 6 hits in his final 8 AB and finished with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.  He’s reasonably priced today at $4.6k on DK. 

After winning the 2022 NL Batting Title, McNeil will look to carry that over to the Wild Card round.  McNeil also finished the season strong, with hits in 10 straight.  In those 10 games, he had multi-hit games in all but 2 of them.  He’s their best pure hitter and they’ll need his bat to keep going if they have any chance of making it to the Dodgers in the next round. 

Secondary/Value:  I also like Francisco Lindor, Eduardo Escobar, and Daniel Vogelbach.  Vogelbach makes for a nice punt at 1B as he’s only $3.4k tonight and has power upside.  

Seattle Mariners vs. Alek Manoah

Sorry Ghost, but I’m siding with the Mariners in this one.  Although the ERA has been low for Manoah over the last month, the xFIP isn’t.  Manoah’s xFIP is more than 3.5 runs higher than this 1.07 ERA over the last month.  A lot of this is due to his disappearing K rate.  Over the last month, Manoah has had just a 21% K rate, down significantly from the start of the year. 

He also has a troubling 50% flyball rate over the last month.  This is a strong Mariners and giving up that many flyballs can lead to some damage.  Lefties are the way to really get Manoah.  They have a higher slugging % and wOBA and 11 of the 16 homers he gave up this year were to lefties. 

Core:  When you stack the Mariners, it all starts at the top with presumed Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez.  What a year for the kid!  He ended the season strong against righties, with a .421 ISO and a .535 wOBA over the last few weeks of the season.  He’ll look to continue that momentum into this matchup vs. Manoah. 

I’ll also build around Carlos Santana.  He’s risky but also possesses some power from the left side.  Although he doesn’t hit for average as a lefty, 16 of his 19 homers this season were as a lefty.  At just $2.6k he’s a nice value with some upside. 

Secondary/Value:  Jarred Kelenic may also make my lineup today.  He has a ton of risk, but at $2.4k I’m willing to eat that risk as he did start to show some power at the end of the year and fewer strikeouts.   

MLB DFS Summary

I also like the Phillies vs. Quintana today. 

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Oct. 5)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

Well, we’ve made it friends.  Today is the final day of the regular season.  If you’ve followed along this season, I thank you.  It’s been a wild ride.  We had some ups and downs, but most importantly we had some fun.  All teams are in action today starting at 4 pm est.  I suggest waiting until lineups are out to make any semblance of a lineup today.  Things can get wonky as playoff teams don’t want to risk injury and non-playoff teams, welly they probably just aren’t that good. 

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Corbin Burnes vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

I doubt we get a full allotment of innings out of Burnes today as he’s already at a career-high 199 innings.  That said, he’s the best pitcher on the mound tonight with a solid matchup.  He’s also coming into this one off a dominant 8-inning, 7-strike-out performance against the Marlins.  If we get a notice that he’s all systems go today, he’ll be my SP1 as he has a solid matchup today.

Shohei Ohtani vs. Oakland Athletics

Ohtani being nearly $11k on DK is a tough one.  Does he pitch a full game?  Do they pull him after 5?  This time of the year it’s extremely tough to lock in expensive pitchers, but what a matchup he has today.  Michael Lorenzen was able to strike out 7 Athletics in just 6 innings of work yesterday. 

The A’s are a bad lineup and one that Ohtani can absolutely dominate.  This is the same matchup he had a week ago that saw him strikeout 10 in a masterful performance. He’s only at 161 innings on the year, so it’s possible he has some extra string to play with today.

After these 2 today, it’s really a crapshoot.  A case could be made for Clayton Kershaw, but I doubt he pitches more than a handful of innings.  Yusei Kikuchi is in a solid matchup, but he’s only been pitching a few innings.  Max Fried won’t go too long either against the Marlins, but he’s in a great spot.  

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Merrill Kelly

With this game being in Milwaukee, I suspect the Brewers will want to put their best foot forward for their fans after missing out on the playoffs.  I’m sure the home crowd would be extremely disappointed if their stars sat so we should expect their regulars to get some meaningful innings today. 

Although Kelly has pitched well this season, the last month has been horrific.  Over the last month, Kelly has given up 11 homers and 15 barrels in just 29 innings of work.  He’s coming off an appearance that saw him give up 8 ER to the Giants.  We’ll want to attack Kelly with lefties. They have a .416 slugging % vs. him this season and 12 of the 21 homers he’s given up have been to lefties.    

Core:  My core this afternoon with the Brewers will be Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich, and Kolten Wong.  Tellez had a breakout season in 2022, hitting a career-high 34 homers and driving in a career-high 88 runs.  Those good times should continue this afternoon in this matchup.  Wong is another Brewers bat that in comparison to his years past, had a solid season. 

Wong set a career-high in homers as well with 15 bombs this season.  He’s been really strong vs. righties this season, with a .277 AVG and 14 bombs against them.  He’s less than $4k today on DK and should return value here. 

Secondary Pieces/Value:  Other Brewers bats I like this afternoon will be Hunter Renfroe, my boy Jace Peterson, and Garrett Mitchell.  Peterson helped me get a takedown earlier in the year, and he’ll help me again today.  I use him at low ownerships against average righties and more often than not, it pays off. 

Cleveland Guardians vs. Jon Heasley

The Jon Heasley we’ve come to know returned last time out.  After putting together back-to-back solid outings, he gave up 4 ER to the lowly Detroit Tigers in his last outing.  He’ll have a much tougher task against a really solid Guardians lineup. 

The way to dominate Heasley is with lefties.  They have a slugging % over.500 and a wOBA of .373.  12 of the 19 bombs he’s given up this season have been to lefties.  Thankfully this game is at home and the Guardians should play their regulars a bunch today in front of the home crowd.

Core:  My Guardians’ core will consist of Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Josh Naylor.  While Steven Kwan won’t win the Rookie of the Year award, what a season he has had!  He’s hitting .299 and could swipe base number 20 today.  For a rookie, he’s shown an incredible eye with a .372 OBP.  He won’t get us much power, but if he gets on, there’s a strong chance he’ll look to steal a base today. 

Next up is JRam.  Ramirez is currently stuck on 29 homers.  A homer run today would give him 30 homers for the third time in his career.  He’s already set a career-high with 124 RBI.  He certainly did not take his foot off the pedal after signing that fat contract at the start of the year.   

Secondary/Value:  After my core, I’ll fill this stack out with guys like Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, and Will Brennan.  If Brennan makes the lineup today against a righty, he’ll be a lock for me.

New York Mets vs. Erick Fedde

You’ll notice a trend here, but I’m going to focus on home teams with my stacks today.  And the Mets are no different.  This will be the final regular season game at Citi and although they’ll host the Padres starting Friday, they’ll still want to put their best foot forward today for a dejected home crowd. 

It also helps that they get a nice matchup vs. Fedde.  Fedde has given up at least 3 runs in 4 straight games and should make it a fourth today.  Fedde is giving up a slugging % over .400 to both sides of the plate so I won’t be too concerned with splits. 

Core: My Mets core will start with Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor.  If the Mets have any hopes of beating the Padres in round 1, they’ll need these 3 to be on fire.  McNeil is currently leading the NL batting race, just a notch better than Freddie Freeman.  The last time we saw a Met win the batting title was Jose Reyes in 2011.  Reyes pulled himself out of the game after securing the title. It didn’t go over too well and I doubt we see McNeil pull the same shenanigans.  He’s been the Mets’ best hitter all year and that will continue on the final day of the season. 

What a season from Alonso!  131 RBI and 40 homers!  He’ll look to cap off a solid 2022 season with a strong showing in front of the home crowd.  Look for him to take Fedde Deep today.  

Secondary/Value:  I also like September Player of the Month Eduardo Escobar, Brandon Nimmo, Daniel Vogelbach, and Luis Guillorme.  All Mets are pretty much in play today against a bad pitcher and bad bullpen.  If Francisco Alvarez gets the start at DH today, he makes for a great punt at C.    

MLB DFS Summary

Other attackable spots tonight are the Dodgers vs. Chad Kuhl, Angels vs. Ken Waldichuk, Cubs vs. Graham Ashcraft, and Mariners vs. Tyler Alexander.  Lots of bats in play today. 

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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