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The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 9 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.Let’s get to the game!Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candida...

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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 9 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Cam Newton (DK $19,800, FD $17,000)

Pivot: Jakobi Meyers (DK $13,500, FD $11,000)

Contrarian #1: Patriots DST (DK $11,100)

Contrarian #2: Jamison Crowder (DK $16,800, FD $14,000)

We’ve got another weird one on the docket for MNF, with multiple statuses to monitor before game time, including the Jets’ highest-upside offensive player in Jamison Crowder (groin) and the normal bevy of Patriots players who’ve been saddled with the questionable tag – no doubt because Bill Belichick can’t help but add some gamesmanship to his weekly strategy.

Ironically, one of the most dubious of 2020 performers this season, Cam Newton, is actually one of the least uncertain heading into this matchup – at least in my opinion. The Jets have lost another key defensive piece (LB Avery Williamson via trade) and should have trouble containing Newton in this matchup. How the Pats deploy their running backs, including how much we see of James White and Rex Burkhead, hinges on the availability of Sony Michel (who has been practicing and could technically come off IR and play tonight) and Damien Harris, whose questionable tag could simply be a red herring and not a real setback for his ankle issue.

Using Newton at captain makes the most sense for cash game matchups, and his upside is high enough that he’ll be the chalk in GPPs. The Patriots will be missing WR Julian Edelman, but Jakobi Meyers seems to have taken over the lion’s share of targets in the passing game. I’d strongly consider stacking Meyers and White with Newton as a starting point for GPPs and cash. Using Meyers at CPT on DK allows you to build some huge-upside Patriots stacks.

The Jets – smack dab in the middle of a season where they are once again being the Jets – will be rolling out Joe Flacco at QB with Sam Darnold (shoulder) on the shelf. Flacco is a man who clearly does not want to be the quarterback of this 0-8 football team. I’m steering clear in most formats but will have at least 1/10 Jets stack with Flacco at the helm in large-field GPPs. I’d rather see them give James Morgan a shot, but Adam Gase is a sadist weirdo who sleeps about as often as a NXIVM member.

Because of their glaring lack of a running game, I don’t mind the Jets WRs here, as they may rack up reception points without necessarily finding paydirt or making huge gains – and the triumvirate of Crowder (double-digit targets in every game he’s played this season), Braxton Berrios (11 targets last week vs. the Chiefs) and rookie Denzel Mims will be complicated by the return of Breshad Perriman (concussion).

On DraftKings, we really have to consider the Pats DST, even though it’s a steep price, and there are definitely some viable GPP builds that start with them up top.

Week 9 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Play the Jets defense tonight. I just don’t see a path to them factoring even if they get a rare defensive TD.

DO: Use Jakobi Meyers in a bunch of lineups, as he’s soaking up the most targets of any Pats WR.

DON’T: Focus too much on the tight ends in this game. Neither side targets TEs very much and while that could change in the small sample of a single game, it’s certainly not a viable cash game strategy.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Cam Newton
  2. Jamison Crowder
  3. Jakobi Meyers
  4. James White
  5. Patriots DST
  6. Joe Flacco
  7. Braxton Berrios
  8. Sony Michel (love the price on DK if active)
  9. Damien Harris (if active and Michel inactive)
  10. Damiere Byrd
  11. La’Mical Perine
  12. Breshad Perriman
  13. Rex Burkhead (but he’s a lineup lock if both Michel and Harris are out)
  14. Denzel Mims
  15. Frank Gore
  16. Nick Folk (questionable – Justin Rohrwasser is the backup)
  17. Gunner Olszewski
  18. Jeff Smith
  19. Ryan Izzo (questionable)
  20. Sergio Castillo

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The fun continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re breaking it down to help you win big money in the first Week 4 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Melvin Gordon (DK $16,500, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Sam Darnold (DK $15,900, FD $14,000)

Contrarian #1: Noah Fant (DK $13,500, FD $12,000)

Contrarian #2: Brett Rypien (DK $15,300, FD $12,000)

It’s going to be difficult for me to build anything tonight without Melvin Gordon atop my favorite showdown lineups, for reasons I should probably not have to explain. But I’m going to have some using both Gordon and Sam Darnold as flex plays with an inexpensive captain — hoping to get me 10-15 fantasy points — so we can squeeze in more upside-laden players. As a standalone NFL contest between two winless teams, it’s not a very fun game to handicap, and it may be an even worse game to watch – but DFS allows us to add some (possibly) lucrative excitement to the mix, doesn’t it?

Both teams are dealing with multiple injuries to their offensive and defensive units and second stringers (or third, in the case of Broncos QB Brett Rypien) have been thrust into prominent roles at the skill positions. One Jets WR has already been ruled out (Breshard Perriman, OUT) and Darnold may also be without Chris Hogan (ribs, knee) and Jamison Crowder (hamstring), both of which currently sport “questionable” tags. Crowder is expected to play, but that doesn’t really diminish my enthusiasm for Braxton Berrios, who has emerged as a viable target for the beleaguered Jets. We’ve also been hearing for a while how awesome Jets TE Chris Herndon is (still waiting on that big breakout game), so a prime time matchup could be an opportunity for him to shine.

The contrarian play, since the Broncos are expected to feature Gordon and attack one of the league’s worst run defenses, is using Rypien in his first NFL start at CPT. Jeff Driskel is not injured (just waiting in the wings if Rypien really struggles) and could be used in the offense as well, so this is a risky move best deployed in multi-entry tournaments. You can get insane leverage by doing it in single entry, but I wouldn’t risk more than a few bucks on that.

Rookie Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy has seen 24 targets from three different QBs through three games, hauling in 13-173-0, and while he’s probably Denver’s most explosive big-play threat, I prefer TE Noah Fant. The athletic former Hawkeye has been more efficient (14-184-2 on 21 targets) and should be easier to find on shorter routes while still bringing some big-play and red zone upside. Tim Patrick is an efficient target and seems to have more upside than KJ Hamler if you’re stacking with Broncos receivers.

On DK, rostering Fant at CPT allows you to fit both QBs and some key offensive cogs, and while the offenses are banged up, I’m still more interested in them than the defenses in this matchup. There’s some pick six leverage in using the Broncos DST, but Denver’s unit is without standouts Jurrell Casey, Von Miller, and A.J. Bouye; dynamic edge rusher and OLB Bradley Chubb (12.0 sacks in 2018) has been on a pitch count (and is without a sack) through the first three games of 2020.

Lastly, on the topic of the Jets “stable” of RBs, I have much more interest in Kalen Ballage or rookie RB La’Mical Perine (in a negative game script/passing barrage) than Frank Gore, who may have finally reached his breaking point as a viable NFL player. Much love to you, Frankie G, but it’s a sad reality that your impressive NFL career is finishing in New Jersey, on a team of mostly scrubs, in the middle of a pandemic. You’re still a large-field GPP play because of your heart — but I can’t get behind you in cash or single-entry.

Week 4 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to take a shot on a defense on DK. Darnold throws INTs and the Broncos QB is making his first NFL start.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your offensive selections, although the small spread doesn’t preclude using more underdogs tonight.

DON’T: Be afraid to get (a little) crazy with this one – from using hobbled players like Crowder or featuring an unproven QB like Rypien. We’ve seen QBs have monster games in their debuts against better defenses than this hideous Jets unit.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Melvin Gordon
  2. Noah Fant
  3. Sam Darnold
  4. Braxton Berrios
  5. Brett Rypien
  6. Jamison Crowder (questionable, hamstring)
  7. Jerry Jeudy
  8. Chris Herndon
  9. Broncos DST
  10. Tim Patrick
  11. Brandon McManus
  12. Kalen Ballage
  13. Sam Ficken
  14. K.J. Hamler
  15. La’Michal Perine
  16. Jets DST
  17. Frank Gore
  18. Royce Freeman
  19. Jeff Driskel (not starting)
  20. DaeSean Hamilton
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NFL Futures Bets for 2020

We’re always looking for ways to put money in your pockets here at Win Daily. When there is a betting line that we can take advantage of, we let you know about it too! Here are a few plays we like on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NFL Futures Bets for 2020.

Michael’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

There are a few teams I’m looking to take advantage of this year in the NFL one of them is my beloved Giants… Make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @michaelrasile1 and hop into our Free Expert Chat on Discord.

Team Win Totals

DraftKings Promo

Giantso/u 6.5 on DraftKings- UNDER
The Giants had 4 wins last year, 2 against the Redskins, and they got better. Defense is still terrible but the offensive line did get better through the draft. I can maybe see 1 win in their first 5 games: Home against the Steelers (loss), At the Bears (loss), Home against the 49ers (loss), At the Rams (loss), Home against the Cowboys (loss). Maybe maybe maybe one of those goes the Giants way, but probably not. Facing the AFC North and NFC West with each division potentially making the argument that 3 teams from those divisions can make the playoffs. No shot at 7 wins. High on saquon in fantasy, pretty low on Daniel Jones, especially with a deep QB class.

Ramso/u 8 – UNDER
The Rams went 9-7 last year and easily could have been in the playoffs if Greg the Leg could hit an easy field goal against Seattle. They have almost $65 million tied in dead cap (Gurley, Matthews, Cooks) and a bad QB. Offensive line was the biggest problem last year and they did some to fix it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was bad again. Todd was bad, but still had over 1000 yard from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns. AFC East and NFC East are pretty easy. NFC West will be hard this year. 2 extra games are the Bucs and Bears, Tom Brady should be fine, and the Bears defense has given the rams fits the last few years. I think their offense won’t be as it was in 2018 and I think their defense will be middle of the pack.

Bearso/u 7.5 – OVER
Deshaun Watson came out and said the Bears never even spoke with him. Now they are stuck with a terrible QB and Mitch Trubisky. Nick Foles was beat out by a 6th round rookie last year, so the Bears thought they should trade a 4th round pick for him, take on his contract (restructured) and now they’re in a pickle. With all that said, their schedule is super easy and them starting out 5-1 or 6-1. AFC South, and AFC South. Extra games the Giants and Saints. 1-1 there. Probably take the over, but i’d be worried. I also wouldn’t touch anyone on this offense except Allen Robinson and it won’t be until late in the draft.

Chiefso/u 11.5 – UNDER
The Chiefs’ schedule consists of the AFC East, NFC South, with the 2 extra against the Ravens and Texans (both play off teams). Per Warren Sharp, Chiefs are going against a top 10 hardest Pass Efficiency Defense. Chiefs love to throw the ball! But thankfully adding a running back in the draft can make their offense a little less reliant on the pass. Super Bowl hangover for all teams other than the Patriots is real. Currently favorites to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 winners, only 2 teams made it back to the Super Bowl, Pats/Seahawks, 3 teams didn’t make it back to the playoffs. AFC is pretty weak this year, so they make the playoffs, but I don’t think they repeat and I think they land at 11 wins.

49erso/u 10.5 – OVER
The 49ers schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC East, and 2 extra games against the Saints and Packers. Top three favorite to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 SB losers only one has come back and won it. Roster is still stacked and intact. Added a real receiver in the draft and got Trent Williams from the redskins. NFCE and AFCE are both bad, should be able to hit the over of 10.5. Fantasy will be weird, Deebo might be a fun play in DFS but I don’t see the consistency in season long. Aiyuk is a real receiver in this offense unlike the rest of them. Kittle for sure. Running back by committee, Kyle Shannahan doesn’t care.

Brownso/u 8 – UNDER
The Browns schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC South, and 2 extra games against the Jets and Raiders. Browns were terrible last year and finished 7-9. Stacked on offense, just needed a real coach and a semblance of an offensive line. Picked up Conklin in the off season for right tackle and Jedrick Wills for left tackle, he played right tackle in college, but Tua is a lefty so he was still blindside. NFC East and AFC South are both bad and their two extra games aren’t too tough either. I think if the offense can pick it up a bit, added Austin Hooper as well I think they do great. Stephanski runs a lot of 2 TE sets so it was a great pick up. Only problem is if they start out bad, how quickly does Odell and Jarvis get angry at Baker and start to ruin the locker room and ask to be traded again? I think there is a shot at the over, but the Browns are still the Browns and in that case I take the under.

Sia’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Make sure to follow Sia at @SiaNejad on Twitter and hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord!

Week 1 Lines

DraftKings Promo

Chicago at Detroit (-1.5) – A best bet. Detroit at home with weapons on offense. Defense is shaky but that shouldn’t be a problem against Mitch Trubisky. Lions tend to start fast. Last year derailed by Stafford injury but this team isn’t as poor as people think.  

Indianapolis (-8.5) at Jacksonville – Is it possible for a team to give up before Week 1?  This game is a stay away for me but if I had to bet it I’d take the Minshew magic plus the points. It’s just too many points for a home team in Week 1.  Indy probably overvalued at this point.

Green Bay at Minnesota -3.5 – shocking line.  Take it at 3 maybe.  This line will go down to 3 or maybe 2.5 by kickoff.  I’m taking Minnesota with the assumption that I get the line later on at 3 or 3.5.  Not in love with the bet but the line tells you all you need to know about how the oddsmakers feel about the Packers (record from last year may be a little fraudulent).

L.A. Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati – Chargers probably win but 3.5 is too much.  This is a bet against on Tyrod and Anthony Lynn.  Chargers can’t help but play close games and Tyrod just isn’t the guy.  Bengals have just enough weapons to move the ball and keep it close.

Arizona at San Francisco (-8) – too many points.  Home game not a factor here. Kyler has done well against SF.  Too many weapons for Arizona.  Game will be close enough.  

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-4) – line is all over the place.  Anything under 4 and I’m on Saints.  Line opened at -6 when schedule came out which was absurd.  Let’s see if the line moves.  If it stays at -4 I’ll take the dog.  It’s a stay away for now.

Dallas (-3) at L.A. Rams – Feels like they’re in a bad spot. Dallas has a ton of weapons on offense. Defense is very shaky but if they can get a pass rush on Goff, they’ll be okay.  Not a bet I love and i’d probably wait to see if line goes down to -2.5.  Probably won’t since Dallas is a public team.

Team Win Totals

Ravens over (11 with juice to over) – Very easy schedule.  Only travel 6k miles on the season (some teams are between 25k-30k of travel miles).  14-2 last year.  Loaded and did well in the draft (Patrick Queen, JK Dobbins, plenty of offensive line help, DLineman in the third round and a very underrated WR out of Texas in Duvernay and Proche from SMU).  Also got James Daka as an UDFA out of JMU.  Edge rusher with 16.5 sacks last year (I went to JMU).

Steelers over (8.5 with juice to over) – Easy schedule (NFC East/AFC South out of division).  People falling asleep on them.  Great defensive front.  They get their QB back.  Weapons at WR (Juju, Claypool, DJohnson and James Washington) and TE (Ebron/Vance) and RB with Conner and Macfarland.

Bengals under (6) Someone has to be the big loser in this division.  Looking at their schedule I can find 5 wins but not 6.  Certainly not 7 so you’re worst case feels like a push.  Small miracle if this team gets anywhere near 7 games.

Giants under (6.5) (AFC North/NFC West)I know Michael covered them but thought id touch on them too (maybe it’s good to reinforce?).  Under is a good bet here.  Schedule is tough.  Just seems like such a good play felt right to reinforce it.

Broncos over (7.5) (AFC East/NFC South)Not the easiest schedule but still like it.  Won 4 of last 5 games last year.  3 of first 5 on the road but that’s not a bad thing.  Pass rush should be good.  Improved OLine.  Good OC in Pat Shurmur.  Loaded at RB (Gordon and Lindsay) and WR (Jeudy, Sutton, KJ Hamler) and talent at TE.  I believe in Drew Locke.

Cowboys over (9.5) – Defense has to be decent and then they’ll cruise in a weak division.

Super Bowl Winners

Ravens at 7 to 1 –  Best team in the NFL.  14-2 last year.  4th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric.  Absolutely loaded up  in the draft on offense and defense (Dobbins/Queen/Duvernay/Proche/OL/DL/Daka out of JMU (16.5 sacks last year).  Only travel 6,000 miles on the entire season (compare that to most NFC/AFC West teams which can travel 25-30 thousand miles).  

Cowboys at 18 to 1 – Competitive NFC but this is a real team which now has a real coach which upgraded in a big way in the draft.  Defense is suspect but these are solid odds.  I like the Cowboys +110 to win the NFC East as well.

Steelers at 28 to 1 – 7th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric (NFC East/AFC South). Steelers got to 8 wins with basically no QB.  Juju healthy.  BigBen healthy.  Stout defense.  Upgrades on offense at RB and WR plus solid core of young WRs (Johnson/Washington).  Only two legitimate teams in the AFC so there is a chance for Steelers to make some noise.

Division Winners

Bucs +105 versus the Saints +110 [NFC South]
Saints added Emmanuel Sanders and a few pieces on defense in free agency.  Solid draft with Baun at LB, Ruiz at Center, Troutman at TE.  May take a while for Bucs to get acclimated.  And let’s not forget Brady is 100 years old.  Bucs offense should still be lethal but not sure they’re fit to take over in the NFC South.  I do like what Bucs did in grabbing Wirfs in first round to shore up OLine and like Ke’Shawn Vaughn to be a potential sneaky star at RB.

Packers +170 versus Vikings +165 [NFC North]
Just seems like the Pack may fall apart this year.  Won a lot of close games last year and I expect regression there.  No help for ARod on offense.  Vikings got a headache out of the locker room in Diggs and filled his position in the draft with Jefferson.  Vikings addressed every need in first two rounds with a WR, CB, and a Tackle.  15 picks overall and this is suddenly a young team on the rise with a veteran QB and an elite pair of RB’s

Cowboys +100 versus Eagles +140 [NFC East]
Seems like Cowboys have the easier schedule. Eagles a very solid team but Wentz certainly an injury risk and Eagles draft didn’t address needs like the Cowboys did.  Cowboys did lost Byron Jones (and Philly gained Slay) but Cowboys drafted 2 CBs with their first 4 picks and now have elite weapons all over the offense. Eagles first two picks with Reagor and Hurts may have very minimal impact in 2020.

Niners +115 versus Seahawks +225 [NFC West]
At some point Russell Wilson is going to have a problem carrying this entire team.  Niners get almost everyone back.  Buckner gone but they filled his spot with Javon Kinlaw.  Got Brendan Aiyuk from ASU.  Team is loaded and getting value at +115.  Hawks draft seemed full of reaches with Jordyn Brooks and Darrell Taylor with first two picks.

Jason’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Make sure to follow Jason on Twitter at @jasonmezrahi and talk to him about his picks in our Free Expert Chat on Discord.

Division Winners

Bucs 12 to 1
Already locked it in at 15 to 1 and I don’t mind it here at 12 to 1. This offense is going to be good to great. Their Run D was good enough. Their secondary was terrible. Licht also made other big moves this offseason, keeping NFL sack leader Shaq Barrett, and bringing back veteran defenders in Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. He also made sure he landed one of the best offensive tackle prospects in the 2020 NFL Draft, trading up for Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs. Though he has taken his share of grief for his misses in recent years, much of which he admits he deserves, Licht deserves every bit of praise he’s getting for the bold moves he’s made this offseason to make the Bucs a legitimate contender. We’ll see if the on-field results match the hype this fall, but at this point, Licht and the Bucs have been big winners this offseason.

Eagles 17 to 1
Picking up Darius Slay covered a major whole in that philadelphia secondary and if Carson and the wide receiving crew can stay healthy they can cruise thru a weak NFC east and lock up a possible home playoff game. I love what sanders brings to this offense, combined with the two tight end set of Ertz and Goeddert, and hopefully a healthy Alshon, Desean and rookie Reagor this offense can be explosive.

Cardinals 60 to 1
The Cardinals have been busy this offseason. They acquired WR DeAndre Hopkins in a trade that sent RB David Johnson to the Houston Texans. They re-signed RB Kenyan Drake and LT D.J. Humphries. They added DL Jordan Phillips and LBs Devon Kennard and De’Vondre Campbell in free agency. They selected LB Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft and added OL Josh Jones (Houston), DL Leki Fotu (Utah) and DL Rashard Lawrence (LSU) with their next three picks.

Team Win Totals

Overs
Ravens – 11
49ers – 10.5
Broncos – 7.5

Unders
Giants – 6.5
Jets – 6.5
Rams – 8
Bills – 9

I hope you can make some money on our NFL Futures Bets for 2020, I think these are some solid plays for the year. Considering we don’t know what it will look like, it should be fun either way!

Make sure to hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord to ask us all questions!

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It’s time for our Week 13 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate, focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win big!

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Week 13 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays 

Travis Kelce, KC vs. OAK

FD($7,100)          DK ($7,200)

Weather is playing a key role in a few games this week, with cold rain being the main culprit. It’s going to be about 35 degrees in KC with no precipitation in the forecast, so I’m perfectly fine rolling with Kelce and his 8-10 targets as my main cash gameplay. He’s coming off his best game since Week 2.

Darren Waller, OAK at KC

FD($6,100)          DK ($5,500)

Waller is cheaper than Kelce and doesn’t have quite the flooror upside, but he’s still worth a look in all formats if you need the savingsat TE. It’s frustrating to see Waller without much red-zone volume and justthree TDs on the season, but he should be more involved against the Chiefs inWeek 13.

Week 13 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

George Kittle, SF at BAL

FD($7,000)         DK ($6,100) 

Kittle isn’t listed on the injury report but is reportedly dealing with a bone chip in his ankle – which could make him a little uncomfortable moving forward. But he returned from a two-game absence with a huge Week 12 (6-129-1 against the Packers). Sunday’s road matchup with the Ravens is a tougher draw and the weather in Baltimore projects to be a cold rain. He’s a GPP play only this week but still has an upside.

Hunter Henry, LAC at DEN

FD($6,600)         DK ($5,800) 

Henry is coming off a Week 12 bye and should have his usualshare of looks (54 targets in seven games this season) against the Broncos inMile High. He’s averaging an excellent 70 receiving yards per game, making himone of the more reliable tight ends in fantasy and a solid GPP play in Week 13.

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. SF

FD($6,500)         DK ($5,700) 

Andrews is in the sameboat as Kittle this week with regard to the game conditions and the difficultmatchup, but he’s a little bit cheaper. He’s a talented player and way too goodto fade completely, but my shares will be slightly diminished this week andthere are a few guys I like better.

Zach Ertz, PHI at MIA

FD($6,900)         DK ($6,700) 

Ertz (hamstring) was a limited participant in Friday’spractice and could always miss this game, but the Eagles are optimistic he’llplay. Goedert would see a huge increase in snaps and volume if Ertz is inactiveagainst Miami, but Ertz is worth rolling out in some GPPs if he’s good to go.

Dallas Goedert, PHI at MIA

FD($5,200)         DK ($4,100) 

Goedert could be an even better option if Zach Ertz misses,but he’s a fine enough play even with the Eagles No. 1 TE available. You’regetting a huge discount on both sites, however, if Ertz is inactive – so he’sbound to get chalky in GPPs and could make a fine enough cash play.

Ryan Griffin, NYJ at CIN

FD($5,600)         DK ($4,200) 

Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value play anymore, but he’ stillGPP-viable and gets a great matchup against the Bengals. He’s now up to28-282-5 on the season, with most of that production coming after his Week 6breakout against the Cowboys.

Greg Olsen, CAR vs. WAS

FD($5,100)          DK ($4,400)

Olsen is easy to forget in this week’s list of availableTEs in the main slate, but he’s up to 68 targets this season and has now hauledin at least five passes in three straight games. In Week 13 he faces a Redskinsdefense that’s allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns this season – so he’sworth considering for GPPs.

Week 13 DFS Tight End PuntPlays 

MikeGesicki, MIA vs. PHI

FD($5,000)         DK ($3,400) 

Gesickibroke through with his first TD of 2019 in Week 12 and should get a handful oftargets this week against the Eagles. He’s still pretty cheap on both sites.

TylerHigbee, LAR at ARI

FD($5,500)         DK ($2,500) 

Higbee will be Jared Goff’s main TE on Sunday with GeraldEverett out for Week 13. He saw six targets last week against the Ravens and hasnow played 70 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps the past two weeks – a ratethat should increase in Arizona. 

Additional Week 13 DFS GPP andpunt options:

JimmyGraham, GB at NYG (FD $5,800, DK $3,800) – GPP

JonnuSmith, TEN vs. JAC (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) – GPP (If Walker sits)

NoahFant, DEN vs. LAC (FD $5,100, DK $3,700) – GPP

TylerEifert, CIN vs. NYJ (FD $4,700, DK $2,800) – GPP

Week 13 DFS DST Cash Game Plays 

Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT vs.CLE)

FD($3,700)         DK ($3,500) 

The Steelers DST pricing is all messed up on FD, so they’re the easy pick for top DST on that site this week, even against a team that gave them fits (and hits!) a couple of weeks ago. I might look elsewhere in DK, but the discount is just too significant on FD to pass up.

Philadelphia Eagles (PHI at MIA)

FD($5,000)         DK ($3,600) 

The Eagles are usually GPP-only but are decent cash gameplay this week facing the Dolphins, especially considering how well they did against the dangerous Seahawks last week. They’re expensive on FD but you get a discount on DK.

Week 13 DFS DST GPP Plays

New York Jets (NYJ at CIN)

FD($4,900)         DK ($3,700) 

Jets fans know that you should never get too comfortable with theJets defense, and that heartache is just around the corner. While I’d love toinclude this unit in my cash game recommendations, it’s just too risky.

Carolina Panthers (CAR vs. WAS)

FD($4,700)         DK ($3,800) 

The Panthers defense has its problems, so they’renot really viable in cash games – but this is a fine enough matchup for GPPsand the Redskins offense is an excellent one to pick on.

Green Bay Packers (GB at NYG)

FD($4,600)         DK ($3,600) 

This game could get interesting.Cold rains are an awful weather component for football, and Daniel Jones hasbeen known to fumble. The Packers are a sneaky good play this week against theGiants, though their struggles against the run should limit your ownership toGPPs.

Week 13 DFS DST PuntPlays 

Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC vs.TB)

FD($4,400)         DK ($3,300) 

The Jags make an excellent play this week at home vs. the Bucs – ateam that turns the ball over frequently and doesn’t have a very dynamicrunning game. They’re on my list of bargain options.

Los Angeles Rams (LAR at ARI)

FD($4,100)         DK ($3,200)

The Rams DST turned in areal stinker last week against the Ravens, but the matchup this week is muchmore favorable, and they had scored 58 DK points total over the past four weeksbefore the negative performance in Week 12. Expect Aaron Donald and the rest ofthis unit to give Kyler Murray some trouble.

Also consider: Colts,Browns

Photo of Kelce by Master Sgt. April Wickes, U.S. Air Force

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It’s time for our Week 11 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win big!

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Week 11 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays 

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. HOU

FD ($6,900)          DK ($6,100)

With 6-53-2 in Week 10, things worked out for Andrews, who we listed as our top GPP choice. There’s a dearth of viable cash game options this week, so even in a tough matchup against the Texans, Andrews is likely the best we’ve got. You can always spend down at TE in cash games and assume a little more risk since it’s a generally inconsistent position in terms of week-to-week production, but Andrews should be considered an elite TE at this point.

Jared Cook, NO at TB

FD ($6,000)         DK ($4,400) 

It’s a ugly week at TE. Cook rarely can be considered a lock forproduction, but he’s been remarkably consistent for the past three weeks withdouble-digit DK points in all three, and his 10 targets last week were aseason-high for him.  His price has comeup on FD, but DK still has him listed as just $4,400, making him a huge bargainin a great matchup (TB ranks 31st against TEs)

Week 9 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

Darren Waller, OAK vs. CIN

FD ($6,700)          DK ($5,500)

Waller has just as much upside as any TE this week based on matchup and typical volume, but Derek Carr is spreading the ball around more to his other TEs and WRs like Hunter Renfrow. Waller is worth a look in GPPs, but he’s no cash game lock.

Eric Ebron, IND vs. JAC

FD ($5,200)          DK ($3,600)

Ebronis actually the discounted Colts TE this week, coming in at a remarkably low $3,600after a 12-target game in Week 10 against the Dolphins. His ownership might bea little higher than Doyle’s based on the pricing.

Jack Doyle, IND vs. JAC

FD ($5,400)          DK ($4,000)

It’s fascinating to watch Doyle and Ebron flip back andforth on DK, with Doyle priced up this week despite just four targets to Ebron’s12 a week ago. Both make sense for GPPs, though it would take some hutzpah toplay them both together. That’s not recommended.

T.J. Hockenson, DET vs. DAL

FD ($5,300)         DK ($3,900) 

Hockenson gets a favorable matchup against Dallas, as the Cowboys are30th in the league against TEs based on DK points allowed. The rookie parlayedhis six targets into 3-47-0 last week facing the Bears, and he gets Jeff Driskelagain this week. He’s not a lock, but worth sprinkling into some GPPs.

Ross Dwelley, SF vs. ARI

FD ($4,900)         DK ($3,400) 

Dwelley only hauled in three of his seven targets last week,but he faces the worst defense in the league against TEs and should have moresuccess against the Cards than he did against Seattle. George Kittle is listedas doubtful for Week 11.

Week 9 DFS Tight End PuntPlays 

TylerEifert, CIN at OAK

FD ($5,000)         DK ($3,200) 

Eifert’s stock is on therise, as theBengals have installed Ryan Finley down the stretch and a big-bodied, sturdytarget like Tyler could offer a security blanket for the rookie. This week hegets a favorable matchup against a Raiders team that has struggled in passdefense and will likely allow multiple dump-offs to Eifert and the RBs.

Ryan Griffin, NYJ at MIA

FD ($4,800)         DK ($2,900) 

Griffin gets no respect ion the DK pricing algorithm, andthat’s just fine with me. I’ll have tons of shares of the Jets TE, especiallywith Chris Herndon out for the season and no longer a threat to cut into hissnaps and targets.

Greg Olsen, CAR vs. ATL

FD ($5,100)         DK ($3,900) 

Olsen had 10 targetslast week and he could have a huge impact in this game if the Falcons stack thebox against CMC. I love the Panthers offense as a whole this week, as last week’sperformance vs. the Saints was probably an anomaly.

Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. DEN

FD ($4,500)         DK ($3,600) 

FanDuel must have something against Rudolph, because he’s just $4,500 there. For a guy with four TDs in his last four weeks, that’s way too low. Use him in GPPs at TE or flex if you aren’t loading up on Dalvin Cook and the run game.

Additional Week 9 DFS GPP andpunt options:

ZachErtz, PHI vs. NE (FD $6,200, DK $5,000) – GPP

NoahFant, DEN at MIN (FD $5,100, DK $3,700) – GPP

O.J.Howard, TB vs. NO (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) – GPP

MikeGesicki, MIA vs. BUF (FD $5,100, DK $3,500) – GPP

BlakeJarwin, DAL at DET (FD $4,500, DK $2,900) – Punt

NickBoyle, BAL (FD $4,900, DK $2,700) – Punt

Week 11 DFS DST Cash GamePlays 

Buffalo Bills (BUF at MIA)

FD ($5,000)         DK ($3,800) 

In Week 11, the Bills facethe Dolphins. They had a poor showing versus the Browns in Week 10 but scored10+ against this Miami team in Week 7 when Preston Williams was healthy andthey had more viable RBs. They offer a solid floor and upside this week and shouldbe a cash game staple, and the price on DK is still affordable.

New Orleans Saints (NO vs. ATL)

FD ($5,000)         DK ($3,700) 

With 14 sacks over theirpast four games, the Saints make for a solid option in all formats against abanged-up Falcons offensive unit. They’re cash-viable with 20-point upside inGPPs.

San Francisco 49ers (SF vs.ARI)

FD ($4,900)         DK ($4,000) 

The 49ers defense gets a favorable matchup and is one of thebest units in the game, and they didn’t take advantage a couple weeks ago in Arizona.Now, on their home turf, we could see a completely different story emerge. They’re  solid play in all formats.

Week 11 DFS DST GPP Plays

New England Patriots (NE atPHI)

FD ($5,000)         DK ($3,500) 

This might be the cheapest you’ll see the Patriots defense the restof the way out this season on DK, where they’ve scored double digits in everyweek of the season except Week 9 and their bye. They should easily be $4Kagainst a banged-up Eagles team that’s lacking in consistent offensive options.The best option for GPPs (20+ upside) and cash-viable as well.

Minnesota Vikings (MIN vs. DEN)

FD ($4,700)         DK ($3,400) 

The Vikings defensive line must be licking theircollective chops at the prospect of going after Brandon Allen on their hometurf. This week could feature their highest DST score since the dropped 16 DKpoints on Atlanta in Week 1.

Oakland Raiders (OAK vs. CIN)

FD ($5,000)         DK ($3,300) 

The Raiders face one ofthe worst teams in the league, if not the worst, and should put plenty of pressureon Ryan Finley despite their issues with pass coverage. They might have a lowerflor than some of these other STs listed, but they have just as much upside asanyone except the Pats and Vikings.

Dallas Cowboys (DAL at DET)

FD ($4,100)         DK ($3,600) 

The Cowboys are relatively inexpensive, because they’re a risky bunchto get into shootouts and don’t create a ton of turnovers. They have muchhigher upside this week against a poor run defense (they can slow it down andyou can pair Ezekiel Elliott with the Cowboys DST in a few GPP builds)) and apositive game script for the defense against Jeff Driskel.

Indianapolis Colts (IND vs. JAC)

FD ($4,400)         DK ($3,300) 

TheColts are a boom-or-bust GPP play this week, as they face the Jaguars and NickFoles. I’m willing to consider them at home against a QB who could be rusty,especially sine they have a solid run defense and Foles might be forced to throwa bit more than he’d like in his first game back.

Week 11 DFS DST PuntPlays 

New York Jets (NYJ at WAS)

FD ($4,500)         DK ($3,100) 

The Jets face a rookie QB (Dwayne Haskins) and have looked muchbetter defensively the past few weeks. They’re a viable play in all formatsthis week and still won’t cost you much.

Baltimore Ravens (BAL vs. HOU)

FD ($4,300)         DK ($3,000) 

The Ravens DST has a toughmatchup, but the Texans are not immune to mistakes. They’re a risky play butcheap on both sites and GPP viable.

Carolina Panthers (CAR vs. ATL)

FD ($3,700)         DK ($3,000) 

The Panthers might be my favorite punt defense this week in GPPs,because they have the best RB in fantasy and the Falcons are a mistake-prone groupmissing their top RB and TE Austin Hooper, a key safety valve for Matt Ryan.

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Pick the Players that will get the most Receptions

Goal: 21.5, Prize: 2x

Michael Thomas, Jared Cook and Mike Evans are my guys, though if youre skittish about using a TE you can go with Alvin Kamara or Chris Godwin.

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It’s time for Week 9 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win some green!

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Week9 DFS Tight End Cash Game Plays 

Travis Kelce, KC vs. MIN

FD ($6,700)         DK ($6,900) 

It’s a stark reality that most TEs just aren’t that reliable in DFS, but Kelce (65 targets, 42-604-2 this season) is about as automatic for 10+ fantasy points as you can get. He’s got only one game this season (9.8 DK points in Week 8 against the Texans) where he didn’t reach that mark – but he was darn close, and he said he was disgusted with his performance vs. Green Bay. The Vikings have a solid defense but are middle of the roads vs. TEs, and even with one more week of Matt Moore under center for the Chiefs, Kelce is one of the two best cash game plays.

DarrenWaller, OAK vs. DET

FD ($6,800)         DK ($6,300) 

Waller didn’t have a great week last Sunday (he caught just two of eight targets for 11 yards and a touchdown), a result of constant attention from the Houston defense, though his score salvaged what would have been a DFS disaster. The matchup is much better for Week 9 DFS against a Lions defense that ranks 27th against TEs. Waller is still seeing plentiful targets, so he’s about as safe as it gets for cash games.

Week9 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

Hunter Henry, LAC vs. GB

FD ($6,400)          DK ($6,000)

The Chargers TE is oneof the top GPP plays, as he’s a consensus Top 5 five this week. With 23 targetsover his past three games, Henry is an elite GPP play with multi-TD upsidefacing the Packers.

JimmyGraham, GB at LAC

FD ($6,000)          DK ($4,300)

The veteran TE is a huge bargain on DK but makes for a solid GPP play on both sites. There’s 15-20 point upside, which is actually a pretty high mark this week given the player pool. He’s worth a look in Week 9 DFS because of the matchup and his QB – but Graham’s play this season has been streaky. He’s pretty far down the list in the consensus Week 9 rankings, so his ownership shouldn’t be too high.

GregOlsen, CAR vs. TEN

FD ($5,300)         DK ($3,500) 

Olsen had a solid start with two monster games in his first three weeks, but he’s been held scoreless over his past four appearances. He dealt with a back injury in late September, but hasn’t had a designation in a while and is facing a Titans defense that’s yielded plenty of scores to opposing TEs. He’s an under-the-radar GPP play in a decent matchup.

ZachErtz, PHI vs. CHI

FD ($6,000)         DK ($4,700) 

The main slate ismissing several of the game’s best TEs due to prime-time affairs or bye weeks,so we’re going to have to take chances in GPPs, and Ertz is a huge risk at themoment – with three straight games scoring fewer than 10 DK points and just oneTD on the season. The price has come down on DK to a point that’s reasonable,and his upside makes me comfortable rolling him out in GPPs – even against theBears.

Week9 DFS Tight End Punt Plays 

JonnuSmith, TEN at CAR

FD ($5,500)         DK ($3,800) 

With fellow Titans TE Delanie Walker (ankle) ruled out, Smithdraws another start in Week 9 against the Panthers, and while the matchup istougher than last week, I’m going right back to the well following his 6-78-1 (onseven targets) performance.

EricEbron, IND at PIT

FD ($5,200)         DK ($3,600) 

Ebron has been a hit-or-miss fantasy option this season,but he’s in a good spot against the Steelers. He’s mired in a timeshare attight end with Jack Doyle, but has at least three targets in every game this seasonand has scored over 10 DK points in three contests – the three he caught TDpasses in. It’s possible he and Doyle will both get more targets in the comingweeks with T.Y. Hilton slated to miss time, even if their upside is limited abit with both TEs healthy.

RyanGriffin, NYJ at MIA

FD ($5,000)         DK ($3,400) 

Griffin has been one of the lone bright spots these pastcouple weeks for the Jets, and he’s coming off his best game of the season, atwo-touchdown performance against the Jaguars (4-66-2). I keep hearing talkthat Griffin will be relegated to a backup role once Chris Herndon returns fromhis hamstring injury, which could be as soon as this week in Miami, but Herndonis still a 50-50 shot to play. If he sits, Griffin is an option.

T.J.Hockenson, DET at OAK

FD ($5,000)         DK ($3,700) 

The rookie tight end hasbeen relatively quiet lately, with just four catches in his last two weeks, butthat could change versus an Oakland defense that’s 28th against TEs. He’s stillgot 15-20 point upside but is a TD-dependent option who’s fine for GPPs.

Additional Week 9 DFS GPP and punt options:

Cameron Brate, TB at SEA (FD $5,100, DK $3,100)

Jack Doyle, IND at PIT (FD $5,000, DK $3,000)

Trey Burton, CHI at PHI (FD $4,800, DK $2,900)

Anthony Firkser, TEN at CAR (FD $4,700, DK $2,500)

Noah Fant, DEN vs. CLE (FD $4,600, DK $3,000)

Foster Moreau, OAK at HOU (FD $4,900, DK $2,600)

Week 9 DFS DST Cash Game Plays 

BuffaloBills (BUF vs. WAS)

FD ($5,000)         DK ($3,800) 

The Bills have disappointed us as the chalk DST before, but they’ve been serviceable against bad offenses, and this week they have a great home matchup against Washington. They’re relatively safe, have some upside, and Washington has just a 13-point implied total – the lowest of Week 9 – with turnover-prone rookie Dwayne Haskins starting at QB. The Bills DST should rebound in a big way.

PhiladelphiaEagles (PHI vs. CHI)

FD ($4,600)         DK ($3,000) 

Considering the Bears have one of the worst offenses in football and the Eagles defensive unit has been solid, I’m giving the Eagles the green light in cash games this week. Philly’s DST dropped 35 DK points on the Jets in Week 5, and they have similar upside this week against Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears.

DenverBroncos (DEN vs. CLE)

FD ($4,300)         DK ($2,900) 

If you’re looking for a cheap defense to play in cashgames, the Broncos face a turnover-prone Browns team at Mile High, where they usuallyplay a lot better as a unit. Give them a look if you’re in a salary crunch foryour lineup’s final spot.

Week9 DFS DST GPP Plays

SeattleSeahawks (SEA vs. TB)

FD ($4,900)         DK ($3,600) 

Seattle faces a Bucs team that’s got an implied total of 24.5 points, but Jameis Winston has thrown seven INTs over his past two weeks, making them a great GPP play. The secondary does have some issues with depth – last Sunday they were missing Tre Flowers, Quandre Diggs among others, and saw just a handful of snaps from Bradley McDougald. Those recurring injury problems and the implied total make them a little riskier for cash, but they’re one of my top tournament plays of Week 9.

GreenBay Packers (GB at LAC)

FD ($4,400)         DK ($3,400) 

The Packers were an under-the-radar DST for a while, and now’sthey’re one of the top defenses thanks to stellar play from the entire unit, especiallyZa’Darius Smith and Preston Smith at LB. And they have Darnell Savage back atsafety – which gives them a big boost. I’ll have some Aaron Jones/GB DSTlineups in GPPs.

NewYork Jets (NYJ at MIA)

FD ($4,600)         DK ($3,500) 

The Jets defense is a bit of a mess right now with a lot ofbackup players forced into starting roles, but the matchup versus Miami means wehave to consider them.

ChicagoBears (CHI at PHI)

FD ($4,400)          DK ($2,900)

The Bears DST came into the season a juggernaut, had acouple monster games in weeks 3 and 4, and now is struggling to make a bigsplash because of how poorly the offense is playing. They’re under $3K on DKnow, and the Eagles offensive line is in disarray, so that’s enough for me toconsider them in DFS.

ClevelandBrowns (CLE at DEN)

FD ($4,300)         DK ($3,100) 

The Browns get to face an untested QB, and they still havean effective pass rush and decent cornerbacks – so I’m buying some shares in Week9. A risk as a road play, but one with plenty of upside.

Week9 DFS DST Punt Plays 

Carolina Panthers CAR vs. TEN)

FD ($4,000)         DK ($2,800) 

The Panthers are cheap and their opponent, the Titans, havean implied total under 20 – making this one of the bets matchups of Week 9. Don’toverthink it.

MiamiDolphins (MIA vs. NYJ)

FD ($3,600)         DK ($2,700) 

The Dolphins defense has its moments – and so does SamDarnold the Ghost Whisperer. Seriously, though, we can make a case for theDolphins DST even in full tank mode based solely on the awfulness of the Jets.

WashingtonRedskins (WAS at BUF)

FD ($3,000)         DK ($1,800) 

The ultimate punt, it shouldn’t be hard for this team to make 4x or 5x value at the $1,800 price tag. I like Josh Allen, but he’s far from perfect, and has been known to throw ‘em to the opposition.

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Focused on TEs, here, I will go with Kelce, Ertz and Olsen for a goal of 17.5 at 2x.

Photo of Travis Kelce by: Master Sgt. April Wickes, U.S. Air Force

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This report will provide plays for the Week Seven NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down the top fantasy players to consider and also include my favorite prop bets on Monkey Knife Fight.

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

O/U: 43.5 (NE -9.5)

NFL DFS: New England Patriots

The undefeated Patriots head to the Meadowlands to take on the rejuvenated New York Jets. The Patriots have been lights out on defense, logging 25 sacks and maintaining the second highest adjusted sack rate in the league (10%). They have also been very stingy on the ground, allowing just over 3.4 yards per carry. The one thing everyone is talking about is the inconsistencies in the NE offense. They aren’t great in the run game, they average just over three YPC. They also haven’t been stellar in pass protection, allowing a 5.8% adjusted sack rate. Not the worst in the league, but enough to cause concern against a very underrated Jets defense. To make matters worse, WR Josh Gordon, TE Ryan Izzo, and TE Matt LaCosse have already been ruled out. Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, Patrick Chung, and Rex Burkhead are all listed as questionable to play.

NFL DFS: New York Jets

The savior of the New York Jets returned last week and put on quite a show against the Cowboys. There aren’t any stats for me to bolster for the Jets, who rank second to last in pass protection (25 sacks allowed) and average just over three YPC. I’m going to say the same thing I said last week when I wrote up the Jets offense, forget everything you think you know about this team. They had Luke Falk under center, who quite frankly doesn’t have the intangibles to even be an NFL QB, but they made due with what they had and that is reflected through the stats. It is easy to defend an offense with a QB that can’t throw outside the numbers, so you can just stack the box and defend their All-Pro running back.

It is worth noting the Jets are missing two starting offensive linemen (Kelechi Osemele, Kelvin Beachum). Sam Darnold will also be without 2018 standout TE Chris Herndon, who is still dealing with a hamstring injury. I feel like the Jets offense is going to be effective tonight. The Patriots have had a vanilla schedule for six weeks and now they get a division opponent with their starting QB back and some great weapons at his disposal.

NFL DFS: DraftKings Approach

NFL DFS Captain:

Preferred (in order of preference): Sam Darnold ($13,500), Julian Edelman ($16,800), Robby Anderson ($10,200), Patriots DST (10,800).

NFL DFS Flex:

(Whoever you do not use in Captain is also great in the flex): Tom Brady ($11,600), Phillip Dorsett ($6,600), James White ($7,400) Ben Watson ($4,400), Ryan Griffin ($2,100), Brandon Bolden ($4,800), Jameson Crowder ($7,000) Sam Ficken ($3,600). Not crazy about Le’Veon Bell tonight, but his volume can’t be ignored. Le’Veon Bell ($9,200)

NFL DFS: FanDuel Approach

NFL DFS MVP:

Tom Brady (cash) ($15,500), Sam Darnold ($14,500), Julian Edelman (14,000), Phillip Dorsett ($8,500)

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NFL DFS Prop Picks:

Julian Edelman – Edelman averages nearly seven receptions for game and should see an uptick with Josh Gordon already confirmed out for tonight’s game.

Le’Veon Bell – Bell averages nearly six receptions per game and should continue to see targets out of the backfield, one of the reasons he was brought to New York.

Jamison Crowder – I had to make a decision between Crowder and Robby Anderson, but Crowder will see me volume just based on where he lines up (slot). Crowder averages nearly six receptions per game.

The safest play will be for 2x your bet, but you can certainly make a case for the three of these guys to combine for over 20 receptions in this game.

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