On the second day of the NBA Play-In tournament, there are two intriguing matchups. The Eastern Conference side features two underachieving rosters. Meanwhile, the Western Conference side has two rosters set to contend in the near future.
Here is the NBA Playoff bracket with final seeding:
The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. In both this article and the Opening Round Matchup Breakdown articles, there will be rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.
Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.
Toronto Raptors (9) vs. Chicago Bulls (10)
Toronto Raptors (-5.5)
Introduction
Although they won an NBA Championship only a few seasons ago, this roster looks like it needs a massive overhaul. Scottie Barnes is a player to build a franchise around, and Pascal Siakam remains an All-NBA talent. However, the inconsistency of Fred VanVleet along with a combination of injuries and a short bench ruined the potential of a successful season for the Raptors.
Matchup
Despite an offense that thrives on switchability and getting to the rim, this matchup will be exploited on the perimeter. Outside of Alex Caruso, the Bulls do not have elite perimeter defenders. Yes, Patrick Beverley was added to the roster, but he is the furthest thing from an impact player when the cards are on the table. Moreover, the Bulls ranked 29th in the NBA in three-pointers allowed per game. This creates an excellent scenario for Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. off the bench.
Rotation
Coach Nick Nurse plays his cards tight. As he always has, whether it is a regular season game in January or the NBA Play-In round. Look for Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Scottie Barnes to garner all the minutes they can handle. Moreover, Jakob Poeltl will man the paint, while OG Anunoby flanks the wings. Elsewhere, Gary Trent Jr. will be the first guard off the bench, while Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher will pick up a few minutes in the frontcourt.
X-Factor
While Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam will lead the offense, no one is as important as Scottie Barnes. In the few minutes VanVleet takes off, Barnes will handle the rock. Moreover, his combination of scoring, playmaking, and rebounding makes him elite in all aspects of the game. Lastly, he has the most important defensive assignment of the night in guarding one of Zach Lavine or DeMar DeRozan at all times.
Chicago Bulls (+5.5)
Introduction
Despite having a lot of money committed to their “Big 3”, Chicago had yet another disappointing season. Only Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozan averaged over 20 points per game. Elsewhere only Patrick Williams (10.2 points per game) chipped in double digits per night. This team is not only severely limited on offense, but they are in one of the toughest matchups they could have possibly imagined in the NBA Play-In round.
Matchup
This is simply an awful matchup for the Bulls. Yes, the Raptors have underwhelmed this season after winning an NBA Championship only a few years ago. Gone is Kawhi Leonard, but the core of this team remains intact. Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby will wreck havoc on the defensive side of the ball, while the acquisition of Jakob Poeltl gives Toronto an interior presence they have lacked. It will be a low-scoring affair, and massive changes await the Bulls if they do not make it out of this game.
Rotation
Chicago can approach their rotation in a few ways heading into this game. The intelligent way to do would be offsetting Lavine, DeRozan, and Vucevic so that two of three are on the court at all times. Zach Lavine needs to lead the team in minutes if they want a shot at winning. Moreover, while he was inconsistent at times this season, Fred VanVleet needs to be guarded by Alex Caruso. Elsewhere, Patrick Williams is a good fit in this one, while Patrick Beverley will likely get more attention than Coby White, despite the former being useless on the offensive side of the ball. If Beverley gets more minutes than Caruso and White, there is no doubt that it will be the demise of the Bulls.
X-Factor
This issue for this Bulls offense is just how stout Toronto’s defense can be. When you have Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby guarding you, their wingspans allow them to contest nearly every shot successfully. However, Zach Lavine will have to be the key contributor tonight. Yes, DeMar DeRozan is the king of the midrange jumper. However, it is Lavine that will be able to not only create shots for others, but his own.
New Orleans Pelicans (9) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (10)
New Orleans Pelicans (-5.5)
Introduction
It was an underwhelming season for the Pelicans. After a torrid start to the year, where they went 18-8, the injury bug caught up to them. Zion Williamson was held to a mere 29 appearances, while Brandon Ingram made 45 of his own. However, this roster is well constructed and has potential. Ingram leads the offense, while a savvy veteran in CJ McCollum gives New Orleans stability in the backcourt. Flanked by two of the most underrated defenders in the NBA, the Pelicans look good heading into this matchup, if they can hold the young Thunder in check.
Matchup
An unsettling matchup looms for the Pelicans. While the Thunder’s defensive unit is far from elite, this is an offense that posted the fifth-most points per game in the NBA. On the offensive side of the ball, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum will carry the highest usage rates. However, do not overlook Jonas Valanciunas. Yes, his minutes are in question, depending on the matchup throughout the regular season. But in a one-and-done scenario, look for Valanciunas to dominate an OKC interior that ranked 22nd versus true centers and 28th in rebounding percentage.
Rotation
Considering the Pelicans roster is appropriately placed on the pricing grid tonight, there is not much interest in their bench. Additionally, this figures to be one of, if not the tightest rotations in the Play-In. Brandon Ingram will flank CJ McCollum in the backcourt. Meanwhile, the perimeter defensive duo of Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III have a daunting task ahead of them. Jonas Valanciunas will man the paint and is in a terrific matchup, as alluded to above. Elsewhere, Josh Richardson and Naji Marshall will be the first to come off the bench, as will Larry Nance Jr., should he be healthy enough. If not, look for one of Jaxson Hayes or Willy Hernangomez to pick up a few minutes.
X-Factor
No one will be as crucial for the Pelicans in this game as Herbert Jones. Yes, he has many limitations on offense. Not only did he averaged a mere 9.8 points per game on a horrific 14.5% usage rate, but his shot is incredibly inconsistent. However, Jones is a candidate for an All-NBA defense team this year and has been tremendous when guarding primary ball handlers. Thus, with a matchup against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the horizon, he will be in for a ton of minutes.
Oklahoma City Thunder (+5.5)
Introduction
While most had the Thunder set for the NBA draft lottery, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had other plans. Not only did the Canadian break out this season, but he finished fourth in league scoring. Moreover, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams were terrific this year. Giddey came through on multiple occasions, averaging 16.6/7.9/6.2 on 48.2% shooting. Additionally, had it not been for Paolo Banchero, Williams would be the favorite for Rookie of the Year. JDub had a terrific run after the All-Star break and finished fourth in rookie scoring.
Matchup
Despite the loss of Zion Williamson, the Pelicans have a stout defensive unit. Not only did they rank 6th in the NBA in defensive rating, but they also allowed the ninth-fewest points per game. However, the backcourt of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey will give the Pelicans all they can handle. The Pelicans have two terrific perimeter defenders and this one will come down to who can outduel the other.
Rotation
Four players will seemingly not leave the court for the Thunder tonight. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, and Lu Dort figure to play the most minutes. Moreover, the duo of Jaylin Williams and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl will man the paint. Elsewhere, Isaiah Joe will be the first guard off the bench. Lastly, their minutes aren’t guaranteed, but Dario Saric, Tre Mann, and Lindy Waters III are darkhorse candidates, depending on the flow of the game.
X-Factor
The role that Lu Dort will have to play in this game cannot go overlooked. Yes, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will lead the offense. Moreover, Josh Giddey will be a force on both ends of the court. But it is Dort that will have to step up in a big way. The 3-and-D wing has a perfect game for the NBA Playoffs. He is an excellent defender and can hit the three well. In a matchup versus Brandon Ingram, Dort will have to excel on both ends of the court.
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