Despite NBA teams having a week off following the All-Star break, there are still numerous players missing in action. While some focus on their playoff push, others have cause for concern. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
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New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards (-1.5)
New York Knicks (+1.5)
One of the biggest snubs of this year’s NBA All-Star game was Jalen Brunson. A questionable signing turned into a perfect situation for the Knicks, as they have found their point guard. In ten games before the break, Brunson scored 20 or more points in each one of those appearances. Moreover, he averaged 31.5/4.2/6 on 55.4% shooting during that stretch. The backcourt is riddled with underappreciated talent between Brunson and Immanuel Quickley, while the Knicks suddenly have solid wing depth as well in RJ Barrett and Josh Hart. The latter has been overly efficient since arriving from Portland, shooting 62.1% from the field and 64.3% from behind the arc in three appearances with his new team. While he lacks upside due to limited volume, he is someone that will likely be overplayed on this NBA slate.
Washington Wizards (-1.5)
Bradley Beal did not practice for two consecutive days coming out of the break and is unlikely to play tonight. Thus, Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma will shoulder the load on offense. The former plays against the organization that drafted him, while Kuzma is surprisingly still in town following the trade deadline. However, Washington is still holding a spot in the Play-In tournament right now. While the duo are in awkward positions on the pricing grid, the latter has more upside. Kuzma does not see drastic increases in his production with Beal off the court, but does take more shots and handles the rock more frequently. A reluctancy to commit to such a bleak situation would be understandable, so look to Deni Avdija or Delon Wright here.
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5)
Miami Heat (+1.5)
While this is far from an elite game environment, these two teams will be playing on tight rotations. Both organizations have built their rosters around defensive ability, and the two both have top 5 defenses in the NBA. However, Miami is desperate for wins and will need to tighten their rotation down the stretch. In the absence of Kyle Lowry (knee), Tyler Herro will be a key contributor in the backcourt. Moreover, Jimmy Butler will have ample room to dominate this halfcourt offense in the absence of one of, if not the best defender in the league: Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5)
As alluded to above, Giannis Antetokounmpo (wrist) injured himself in the last game before the NBA All-Star break and is doubtful to play tonight. Thus, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton, and Bobby Portis will see an increase in offensive looks. There is no clear advantage in individual matchups between the four, as the Heat bolster one of the best defensive units in the league. However, Khris Middleton will look to regain his form before the playoffs begin, leaving him with the most upside based on sheer volume. Before the break, Middleton scored in double digits across his last six appearances and eight of his last nine. During that stretch, he averaged 16.1/5/3.6 on 48.7% shooting, while taking over 12 field goal attempts per night.
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors (-9.5)
Houston Rockets (+9.5)
In the absence of both Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green, there are a ton of shots available to the remaining Rockets. Alperen Sengun is the key benefactor in this situation, seeing his usage rate increase from 22.1% to 26.4%, with his fantasy points per minute rising from 1.21 to 1.25. However, there are others to consider as well. The trio of KJ Martin, Jabari Smith Jr., and Tari Eason make for intriguing plays in tournaments, with Smith Jr. being the least preferable of the three. Look for the trio of Josh Christopher, TyTy Washington Jr., and Daishen Nix to pick up the bulk of the workload in a depleted backcourt.
Golden State Warriors (-9.5)
The Warriors are still missing Andrew Wiggins and Steph Curry for this game. Thus, against the worst defense in the NBA, their remaining offensive players are in a tremendous spot. Both Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson fell on the pricing grid, leaving more room for upside here. However, as stated in yesterday’s breakdown, these are the two you want to focus on. Moreover, Kevon Looney and Draymond Green will be key in shutting down Alperen Sengun. No need to reinvent the wheel here: the key contributors are known and are excellent plays on this slate.
Honorable Mentions:
- Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks (-1.5)
- Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5)
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