NBA

We are back for another two-game NBA slate here today, with the Milwaukee Bucks looking to avenge a questionable ending to a Game 2 loss and the Houston/LA series making its debut. Although it is technically not a must-win from an elimination standpoint, Milwaukee’s backs are up against the wall – does this make people flock to Giannis even more so than before, or do they expect his struggles from Games 1 and 2 to continue? If people are jamming multiple studs, where is the value to be had considering both teams in the West run tight rotations? There are a lot of decisions to be made on a slate like this, and it is not as obvious as prior ones; let’s get to it.

The Lock: Anthony Davis, PF ($11,200 FD / $10,600 DK)

With so many viable studs on the slate, AD is the guy I want the most shares of. Going up against PJ Tucker (yes, I am laughing as I type this), AD should feast all series long; in two prior matchups versus Houston this season, AD averages 24.5/12.5/3/1.5/2 across 35 MPG, good for 51.4 DK PPG. While both he and LeBron are running the NBA playoffs with a 30% usage rate apiece, I expect the Lakers to rely on AD to take this series for them and exploit every matchup he sees.

The Core Gems

Goran Dragic, PG ($7,200 FD / $7,000 DK)

Until his price reaches 8k or more, I will continue playing Gordan Dragic on these two-game NBA slates all day long. Averaging 39.4 DK PPG in the playoffs, Dragic has scored 20 or more points in all six of the Heat’s playoffs games thus far to go along with 4.5 rebounds and 4.83 assists per game. While his primary scoring option is typically to drive the basket, something that is not easy against Milwaukee with Giannis and Brook Lopez guarding the paint, Dragic has been relying on his 3-point shot and mid-range game to contribute offensively; he makes for an elite option in the mid-range across both sites.

Brook Lopez, C ($5,700 FD / $5,600 DK)

With the Bucks searching for answers on how to find a way back into this series, most may think of Giannis, and rightfully so, followed by Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe. However, the key to their success may be Brook Lopez. Let me elaborate on this; Bam Adebayo, one of the best defensive players in the league, has been a force in these NBA playoffs on the interior and is causing serios problems for Giannis to find the open lane to the hoop. In turn, I expect a slight shift from the Bucks on offense here today, with Lopez pulling more to the outside than he has been as of late. He’s shot an efficient 63.6% from deep in the series thus far, and with his price under 6k, he makes for a premier target here.

The Value Gems

Milwaukee/Miami Value

If we’re trying to build with one of AD, LeBron, Giannis, or Harden, or maybe even two of them, we’ll need to find some value. On the Milwaukee side, look for George Hill to continue his run off the bench and provide a spark that the Bucks need, while Eric Bledsoe is a premier mid-range target; should Giannis continue to get into foul trouble, we’ve seen the run that Marvin Williams has gotten, but his productivity has been mediocre at best. On the Heat side, we can go right back to the well with Jae Crowder, as well as guards Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, although I do prefer the former since he contributes in all facets of the game.

LA Lakers/Houston Value

The late game will probably draw some ownership in terms of value plays, beginning with the Lakers side; both KCP and Danny Green make for compelling options on this slate due to their ability to get hot with the shot in what should be a Run ‘N Gun series, while both Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee have the opportunity to dominate the glass, similarly to AD. On the flipside, I’m looking more into the mid-range for the Rockets here; Robert Covington may be the x-factor for the Rockets in this one, as the Lakers are vulnerable on the wing; look for both Eric Gordon and Danuel House to also be heavily involved on both ends of the floor as Houston tightens up their rotation against one of the best lineups in the NBA.

A Quick Note on NBA DFS

While there are many different sports and various contests pertaining to DFS along with their respective strategies, we focus on the main approaches to build both reliable cash and GPP lineups for a successful NBA night including pace, the projected over/under, one on one matchups (DVP), a player’s usage rate, and a team’s defensive rating. Make sure to stay active when building NBA lineups – if you cannot be in front of a computer, tablet, or on your phone an hour before lock, do not throw your money away! NBA DFS lineups can change at the blink of an eye and are the most variable compared to any other sport in DFS; players get injured, some sit for load management, and others find themselves on the DNP list for other reasons; any of which can sway your lineup and where to find value. Stay alert on the WinDaily Discord chat to follow along with our updated plays. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !

With the first round of the NBA playoffs concluding yesterday after Houston stole Game 7 from Chris Paul and OKC, every team is now onto the second round, including Denver and LA, who make their series debut in the second game of the slate. These two game slates have typically had a similar pattern: the early game draws the most amount of ownership, and typically everyone priced in the mid-range are between 30% and 45% owned. While there isn’t much wiggle room to separate yourself from an ownership standpoint, lineup correlation is important as ever on these slates.

The Lock: Kawhi Leonard, SF ($10,500 FD / $10,300 DK)

The Klaw is my go-to pay up option on today’s slate; averaging 32.8 PPG across nearly 40 minutes of action in the NBA playoffs thus far, Kawhi has been lights out, as usual, when it matters most. While the Nuggets have a remarkable duo in Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, they are vulnerable on the wing and Kawhi can exploit his matchup in Game 1. In two games where he played 33 and 36 minutes, respectively, versus Denver this season, Kawhi averaged 28 points and 5 rebounds while shooting over 50% from the field; sporting a 30.1% usage rate in the NBA playoffs, Kawhi will have to be rolling to get the Clippers over the hump in the West.

The Core Gems

Nikola Jokic, C ($9,800 FD / $9,500 DK)

Saying that the Jamal Murray-Donovan Mitchell duel in the first round of the NBA playoffs was entertaining is an understatement; the two young guards flourished versus one another and really gave us arguably the most entertaining series based on their play alone. However, with the Clippers having the luxury of three elite defensive players in Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Patrick Beverly, should he play, Murray may be in tough throughout the series no matter who switches onto him – cue The Joker. While his usage rate has decreased slightly as their first round series went on, and now sits at 28.3%, Jokic’s usage was tops in the NBA playoffs before Murray took over in games 4-6. A walking triple-double every time he takes the court, look for Joker to exploit both Zubac and Harrell down low and contribute outside of the paint as well.

Fred VanVleet, SG ($7,700 FD/DK)

With the Raptors down 0-2 in the series to Boston, I’m expecting big games from the backcourt tandem of Kyle Lowry and FVV. Because of his rebounding and defensive contributions, I lean FVV, but both make for elite options in the mid-range of today’s NBA slate. While both Lowry and FVV have been missing crucial shots down the stretch, the volume for both of them, especially the latter, is the key factor to deciding as to why I remain interested in playing them; FVV is averaging 40 DK PPG in the series despite only averaging 15 PPG on 11-of-38 (29%) shooting. Give me all of the shares of a guy averaging over 5x his price whilst shooting 29% from the field all day long – positive regression is coming, and so is a ceiling game.

The Value Gems

Boston/Toronto Value

As mentioned earlier, this first game will continue garnering the most ownership of the two, not only because the opening games have been all NBA playoffs long, but because of the value plays available to us. On the Boston side, the mid-range is loaded with four of five starters in Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Daniel Theis, and Jaylen Brown. Moreover, Robert Williams has been electric off the bench when subbing in for Theis and makes for an attractive target if you’re punting the center position. On the Toronto side, OG Anunoby has been having a productive series both scoring and on the glass, in addition to both Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka being affordable, reliable options.

Clippers/Denver Value

While most will flock to the mid-range/value in the first game, there are still some viable pieces to be had in the late game. For the Clippers, Patrick Beverly is expected to make a return to action and will likely spend most of minutes guarding Jamal Murray; he can get into foul trouble quickly, but at $3,500 on DK, he doesn’t need much. Other viable options that stick out to me are Landry Shamet and Ivica Zubac, who have both been hitting their value with consistency. On the Denver side, Monte Morris and Jerami Grant continue to see big minutes whether they’re starting or coming off the bench, while Torrey Craig has been scoring and rebounding consistently enough to warrant consideration at $3,600 on DK.

A Quick Note on NBA DFS

While there are many different sports and various contests pertaining to DFS along with their respective strategies, we focus on the main approaches to build both reliable cash and GPP lineups for a successful NBA night including pace, the projected over/under, one on one matchups (DVP), a player’s usage rate, and a team’s defensive rating. Make sure to stay active when building NBA lineups – if you cannot be in front of a computer, tablet, or on your phone an hour before lock, do not throw your money away! NBA DFS lineups can change at the blink of an eye and are the most variable compared to any other sport in DFS; players get injured, some sit for load management, and others find themselves on the DNP list for other reasons; any of which can sway your lineup and where to find value. Stay alert on the WinDaily Discord chat to follow along with our updated plays. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !

With only two game NBA slates set for the remainder of the playoffs, we’ll be switching the style of article from our Gems in the fashion of The Lock, The Core, and The Value, to a strategy article that will help you make three different types of lineups. Within these three strategies, you’ll find the traditional Ghost’s Gems (The Lock, The Core, and The Value) because they’ll all be different depending on which kind of lineup you are constructing. With two-game NBA slates, there is no room for error in cash games, so I’ll identify which option is best at the time of writing, but make sure to look for more updates in Discord.

The Gems: Harden + Antetokounmpo Lineup Construction (GPP)

The first type of lineup construction is fairly simple: you begin by jamming in both Harden and Giannis, followed by your value Gems. On DK, this leaves you with $4,567 per position left to round out your roster, which isn’t too bad considering you have the two players with the highest raw points upside on the slate, let alone the highest ceilings as well. However, in doing so, you’ll need to make sure to grab enough value that your NBA lineup remains consistent with the other two options discussed below from a ceiling standpoint. While most are content with value plays simply not destroying their lineup, a two-game slate value play most carry enough upside to take your lineup to the top of the leaderboards – what I mean by this is that you must feel confident with the possibility of the pairing of a value Gem with Harden/Giannis will outscore the pairing of two mid-tier pricing options; say Jimmy Butler and Khris Middleton. In order to do so, players such as George Hill (PG), Jae Crowder (SF/PF), and PJ Tucker (C) must remain in consideration and will likely be the focal points of your sources of value, while also considering players such as Andre Iguodala and Darius Bazley. My issue with this type of lineup construction on this NBA slate is that you may need to avoid the entire mid-tier price range, which includes attractive options such as Goran Dragic (PG), which, consequently, can hurt you by the end of the night, but the upside in this option is second-to-none for GPPs.

The Gems: ONE of Harden/Antetokounmpo (Preferred Cash Option)

The second type of lineup construction for tonight’s NBA slate is probably my favorite option of the three. While we saw the winning lineup have neither of Harden nor Giannis, this is not likely to occur twice in a row, let alone with the Rockets facing elimination and with Giannis being shut down in Game 1. The combination of Antetokounmpo struggling on offense, going 4-for-12 from the line, getting into early foul trouble, and Middleton/Lopez shooting 50% and 80% from the field, respectively, are a lot of things needed to go right for an Antetokounmpo fade here. With that being said, James Harden and the Houston Rockets are facing elimination, Russell Westbrook is not 100% healthy, and he’ll have roughly the same usage rate as Giannis, if not more. What is key here is that Harden may come in at a third of the ownership should the trend of early games pulling more ownership, and with how bad the Forward position is on DK and SF on FD, I’m expecting Giannis to have way more pull here than Harden. With Harden going for “only” 51.5 DK points despite going 3-for-11 from deep, he has 70+ point upside in a deciding Game 7. If you’re taking this approach and only playing one stud, look to the mid-range to round our your roster rather than stooping too deep into your player pool: as mentioned before, Goran Dragic (PG) would be a key component to this lineup composition on both sites and remains fairly priced, while the other core pieces depend on which stud you’re using. For example, if using Giannis Antetokounmpo, you’ll likely lean on Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo to pair with Goran Dragic (PG). However, if you’re rolling Harden, take a hard look at the OKC trio of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SG), Dennis Schroder (SG), and Chris Paul (PG) – if Harden’s going off for 70+, one of them is keeping the game close. Lastly, the same theory applies to the stud that you’re fading: if choosing Harden over Giannis, you’ll want one or both of Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez, whereas if you’re fading Harden, you can turn to options such as Robert Covington (PF).

The Gems: Fading Both Studs (GPP)

While the third option is the one that took down most GPPs just a few days ago, I’m not expecting a repeat offense. As explained in the previous section, a lot of things need to go write for just one of Giannis Anteotkounmpo or James Harden to not be in the winning NBA lineup, let alone both of them. However, I’m not opposed to building a few lines this way in large field tournaments (150-max) if you’re multi-entering; this lineup should be primarily comprised of mid-range targets discussed in previous sections, while also considering value Gems that have a decent floor, such as Jae Crowder.

A Quick Note on NBA DFS

While there are many different sports and various contests pertaining to DFS along with their respective strategies, we focus on the main approaches to build both reliable cash and GPP lineups for a successful NBA night including pace, the projected over/under, one on one matchups (DVP), a player’s usage rate, and a team’s defensive rating. Make sure to stay active when building NBA lineups – if you cannot be in front of a computer, tablet, or on your phone an hour before lock, do not throw your money away! NBA DFS lineups can change at the blink of an eye and are the most variable compared to any other sport in DFS; players get injured, some sit for load management, and others find themselves on the DNP list for other reasons; any of which can sway your lineup and where to find value. Stay alert on the WinDaily Discord chat to follow along with our updated plays. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Make sure to check out Brian’s Picks and Pivots here!

Also check out our projection model and cheat sheet!

Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !

After peaceful protests had put multiple professional leagues at a halt for a greater cause, we’re back today for a 3-game NBA slate on a Saturday afternoon. Things have since changed since Wednesday; Russell Westbrook will be returning for the Rockets, looking to grab a critical Game 5 win versus his former franchise, while both the Bucks and Lakers aim to close out their respective series versus the hometown Magic and Lillard-less Blazers. Let’s get to it:

The Lock: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 DK / $11,500 FD)

With the Bucks looking to close out the Magic, I’m expecting no mercy from the NBA MVP. Averaging 31.3 PPG to go along with 15.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists in the series, there are maybe a handful of players that can matchup versus Giannis, and Orlando does not have a single one of them. He’s averaging 2.05 FPPM in the series, and if he sees 30+ minutes in this one, he’ll have no problem contending to be the highest scorer on the slate, especially if you’re playing the angle where Westbrook limits Harden’s ceiling.

The Core Gems

CJ McCollum ($8,100 DK / $8,000 FD)

His price has risen on FD since Wednesday’s slate, and I honestly don’t love this play all that much today considering the Lakers should cruise to a victory here, but for cash games alone, McCollum warrants consideration simply because of how highly he’ll be owned. One of the most important aspects of cash games is ownership – you need to know where the field is going because if someone is coming in at ridiculous ownership rates and you don’t have them, you’ll be behind the 8-ball if they have a great game. With Damian Lillard already ruled out for the Trail Blazers’ elimination game tonight, CJ McCollum will have a big part in whether they get to see the court for a Game 6. Sporting a 26.2% usage rate on the season, McCollum sees a drastic increase to 33.4% with Dame off the court, which largely used to come closing out the opening and third quarters. His back injury has slowed him down at times, but he has turned in back-to-back efficient performances. I’ll be fading in tournaments, or at least be underweight compared to the field; look for updates in Dsicord.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,600 DK / $7,700 FD)

With how few options there are at SG on FD, SGA instantly becomes a core piece to our cash builds. He is also a great play on DK considering the mid-range is not one that is all that attractive today, and while ‘Stars and Scrubs’ will be a good tournament build, having a mid-range target for cash games to pair with the Value Gems below and a stud is a good strategy. Averaging over 38 minutes per game in regulation, SGA has been filling the stat sheet in all aspects and will need to contribute offensively if OKC wants to steal a Game 5 from Harden & Co.

Also Consider: Russell Westbrook & James Harden

The Value Gems

Orlando Magic Value

Another NBA slate where the opening game will draw heavy ownership. The trio of Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, and James Ennis will continue to pull ownership, probably for the last time this season, and we need to be aware of that for our cash games. Both DJ Augustin and Gary Clark are also in play here, in addition to Terrence Ross, so look for updates in Discord as to who is coming in at the highest ownership rates for cash games.

Portland Trail Blazers Value

The value pieces on the Blazers are an interesting, collective pivot from some of the Orlando value at much cheaper prices. The trio of Gary Trent Jr., Anfernee Simons, and Mario Hezonja should all be due for bigger roles here, especially if this one gets out of hand early, so if you’re not playing McCollum under that game theory, load up here instead.

LA Lakers Value

On the flipside to the Blazers value, if you’re making a lineup based on that same game theory, why not run back your Portland value with some Lakers value? If you’re anticipating this game getting out of hand due to LeBron and AD simply overpowering McCollum and company, and therefore fading all 3 of them, pieces such as JaVale McGee, Dwight Howard, Kyle Kuzma, and Alex Caruso should all see extended run. Blowouts are not something I advise trying to predict, and it can bury your lineup rather quickly, but this game has a lot of intrigue for tournaments.

A Quick Note on NBA DFS

While there are many different sports and various contests pertaining to DFS along with their respective strategies, we focus on the main approaches to build both reliable cash and GPP lineups for a successful NBA night including pace, the projected over/under, one on one matchups (DVP), a player’s usage rate, and a team’s defensive rating. Make sure to stay active when building NBA lineups – if you cannot be in front of a computer, tablet, or on your phone an hour before lock, do not throw your money away! NBA DFS lineups can change at the blink of an eye and are the most variable compared to any other sport in DFS; players get injured, some sit for load management, and others find themselves on the DNP list for other reasons; any of which can sway your lineup and where to find value. Stay alert on the WinDaily Discord chat to follow along with our updated plays. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !

We’re back for another edition of the Gems and have a 3-game NBA slate to tackle in the evening. The Bucks and Lakers are looking to close out the Magic and Trail Blazers, respectively, with the former seemingly hanging around in every game despite the obvious mismatch, while both the Rockets and OKC search for an important Game 5 win in a 2-2 series. With multiple studs to pay up for and some glaring value available, there are different routes to take, but let’s explore the best ones:

The Lock: James Harden, SG ($11,600 FD / $11,800 DK)

The Beard will be the stud that I have the most exposure to, along with the Greek Freak who is listed below. James Harden was back to doing James Harden things on offense last game, en route to a stellar 32/8/15 performance, where he also made six 3-pointers. With Russell Westbrook now day-to-day, I imagine he’d be back for the second round, should Houston make it out, and with a decisive Game 5 victory inching them that much closer, look for Harden to take this one over early and often on his birthday.

The Core Gems

Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF/PF ($11,300 FD/DK)

With the Bucks looking to close out the Magic, I’m expecting no mercy from the NBA MVP. Averaging 31.3 PPG to go along with 15.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists in the series, there are maybe a handful of players that can matchup versus Giannis, and Orlando does not have a single one of them. He’s averaging 2.05 FPPM in the series, and if he sees 30+ minutes in this one, he’ll have no problem contending to be the highest scorer on the slate.

CJ McCollum, SG ($7,200 FD / $8,100 DK)

With Damian Lillard already ruled out for the Trail Blazers’ elimination game tonight, CJ McCollum will have a big part in whether they get to see the court for a Game 6. Sporting a 26.2% usage rate on the season, McCollum sees a drastic increase to 33.4% with Dame off the court, which largely used to come closing out the opening and third quarters. His back injury has slowed him down at times, but he has turned in back-to-back efficient performances. Although I’ll be underweight versus the field in tournaments, he’s worthy of strong consideration in cash games due to his inflated ownership at the time of writing.

Also Consider: OKC Trio of SGA, Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder

The Value Gems

Orlando Magic Value

Another NBA slate where the opening game will draw heavy ownership. The trio of Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, and James Ennis will continue to pull ownership, probably for the last time this season, and we need to be aware of that for our cash games. Both DJ Augustin and Gary Clark are also in play here, in addition to Terrence Ross, so look for updates in Discord as to who is coming in at the highest ownership rates for cash games.

Portland Trail Blazers Value

While they aren’t pulling the ownership that I thought they would, the value pieces on the Blazers are an interesting, collective pivot from some of the Orlando value at much cheaper prices. The trio of Gary Trent Jr., Anfernee Simons, and Mario Hezonja should all be due for bigger roles here, especially if this one gets out of hand early.

Los Angeles Lakers Value

On the flipside to the Blazers value, if you’re making a lineup based on game theory, why not run back your Portland value with some Lakers value? If you’re anticipating this game getting out of hand due to LeBron and AD simply overpowering McCollum and company, pieces such as JaVale McGee, Dwight Howard, Kyle Kuzma, and Alex Caruso should all see extended run. Blowouts are not something I advise trying to predict, and it can bury your lineup rather quickly, but this game has a lot of intrigue for tournaments.

A Quick Note on NBA DFS

While there are many different sports and various contests pertaining to DFS along with their respective strategies, we focus on the main approaches to build both reliable cash and GPP lineups for a successful NBA night including pace, the projected over/under, one on one matchups (DVP), a player’s usage rate, and a team’s defensive rating. Make sure to stay active when building NBA lineups – if you cannot be in front of a computer, tablet, or on your phone an hour before lock, do not throw your money away! NBA DFS lineups can change at the blink of an eye and are the most variable compared to any other sport in DFS; players get injured, some sit for load management, and others find themselves on the DNP list for other reasons; any of which can sway your lineup and where to find value. Stay alert on the WinDaily Discord chat to follow along with our updated plays. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !